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Wednesday, May 30, 2018

OT - 2018 NBA Summer Potpourri (finals, draft, free agency, Colangelo dragging)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom can be bothered to curate their own thread to avoid detracting from what this site is really about:  complaints about mayonnaise.


EDIT: image is shrunken. Mouse over to show full size. -vi

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: May 30, 2018 at 12:56 AM | 3814 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   1701. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:08 PM (#5697594)
Paxson will not confirm nor deny the #Bulls made a promise to Hutchison. "He knew we liked him."


Head in the sand.
   1702. Booey Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:09 PM (#5697595)
That's because they keep taking white players, though, to be fair.


Sure, except for all the years when they don't.

Ah well. Hope he's useful and has learned to stop being a d!ck.
   1703. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:09 PM (#5697597)
What's driving the analysis of DiVincenzo shooting too many 2 point jumpers? Over the last 2 years over 50% of his shots have been 3s and his 2pt% is outstanding (presumably because they're mainly dunks due to his elite athleticism and getting to the rim). The free throw line is a worry, though I feel like it's a more useful proxy for shooting when the sample size is smaller. He shoots twice as many 3's as free throws, and his form is good.


That's just me bullshitting, Spicey. I could be entirely wrong about that. But college threes aren't NBA threes and college FT% is a better predictor of NBA 3PT% than college 3PT% is.

I don't think he's going to be able to get to the rim at will in the NBA--and, again, even if we suppose he can, how many of those dudes does a team that already has Giannis Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe on it need?

The pick seems to make sense only if Milwaukee is far higher on his defensive potential than any scouting reports I've seen are.
   1704. Howie Menckel Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:11 PM (#5697598)
"Utah was one of my favorite secondary teams so this really pisses me off. That said I think he's actually a solid fit because Mitchell's not a pure PG and neither is Allen but with both of them you get probably enough playmaking to make it work, and he should be a good shooter and gives them some solid size in the backcourt.


It feels very "take the best white player" to me though, #### it, I'll say it. Or in Sacramento talk, "it'd be a popular pick". We'll see if Allen has grown up, but I doubt it.

....

I get your point, but you have it upside down - and my first NBA visits to SLC and SAC were 20+ years ago. it's not that the fans need a white player, as much as the black players often are reluctant to play there. and THAT is not racist, either - it's just a recognition that these cities are not attractive to young black players (BORING). those teams adjust by leaning in to an equivalent white player.

sometimes, nobody is wrong - except on BBTF
   1705. PJ Martinez Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:13 PM (#5697599)
I suspect those cities are not that attractive to most young white NBA players either.
   1706. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:15 PM (#5697600)
The stuff that's best about Utah, NBA players aren't allowed to do--skiing, rock climbing, etc.
   1707. jmurph Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:16 PM (#5697601)
Sacramento? Did these NBA prospects not see Lady Bird?!
   1708. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:16 PM (#5697602)
But college threes aren't NBA threes and college FT% is a better predictor of NBA 3PT% than college 3PT% is.

Do you have the study that shows this? I'm only semi-being accusatory here. I generally use them together, and I think it's a fair point that his free throw percentage isn't elite. But I think one of the benefits of looking at the FT% is usually it has a higher sample size than 3pt%, which is why it's more predictive. For a guy who shoots a bunch of 3s and not many free throws (DDV), I'm not sure that we should expect it. In fact, I wouldn't.
   1709. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:16 PM (#5697603)
Looks like no one wants to sell GS a pick. Sixers trade Khyri Thomas to Detroit.
   1710. JJ1986 Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:17 PM (#5697604)
Do the Jazz even draft a bunch of white guys? It's not like they're the Pacers.
   1711. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:21 PM (#5697606)
I keep reading that Jacob Evans is a boring pick. He can defend, shoot a little, handle the ball, and can probably can hold his own in the NBA right now, but it's a boring pick. That sounds pretty freaking good at 28.
   1712. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:23 PM (#5697607)
Looks like no one is selling picks to anyone in this draft. I guess the Jordan Bell deal killed that for teams.
   1713. Tin Angel Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:24 PM (#5697608)
Sacramento? Did these NBA prospects not see Lady Bird?!


I laughed. But seriously, I don't see how SLC and Sacramento are any less desirable than, say, Milwaukee (ask Sterling Brown), Minneapolis, Indianapolis, etc.
   1714. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5697610)
Well, Milwaukee just overdrafted a white guy, too. :)

Shooty: I don't know about 'boring' but Jacob Evans was just a good solid pick, the best value on the board. Golden State didn't talk up any flashy athletic prospects, didn't get involved in big trade discussions, they just sat there at 28 and drafted the best player on their board when it came their turn. Ho-hum. Nothing meaty there for the media to blow out of proportion, you know?
   1715. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:32 PM (#5697612)
Nothing meaty there for the media to blow out of proportion, you know?

Truth. Now we can get to the biggest story of the summer--which team is going to get saddled with Dwight Howard. The most unwanted HOFer of all time in any sport!
   1716. Booey Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:36 PM (#5697613)
Do the Jazz even draft a bunch of white guys? It's not like they're the Pacers.


Their reputation for coveting white guys (both via the draft and free agency) hasn't seemed to be true in almost 20 years now (if it ever was), but I think it persists because of some combination of:

A) Memories of their most famous (1990's) teams (Stockton, Hornacek, Ostertag, Adam Keefe, John Crotty, Greg Foster). They really did have more white players back then, but it never seemed to be a deliberate choice to me. Howie got it right; they signed the best players willing to play there. If the black players they tried to pick up weren't interested, what else were they supposed to do?

and

B) People's opinions about Utah and it's "whiteness" in general.



I remember some dumb ass telling me back in, oh, probably 2007 or 2008 that, "Man, even their black players look white!" (referring to Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer)


Edit: And for the record, as for white guys being a "popular pick" with the locals, I've never seen any reason in almost 30 years of fandom to believe that Jazz fans prefer white guys. Hayward was popular because he was good (and yes, hot)...but Favors was just as popular when he was comparably good (2015-2016). Gobert is more popular than Gordon was. Spida - as a rookie - is already more popular than Hayward ever was, despite 7 years with the team. Apparently actually having a personality helps...
   1717. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:37 PM (#5697615)
So, my impression of the Magic for the last several years is that they have a collection of tall, long athletic dudes who jump really high and run really fast but can't, you know, dribble or pass or shoot. Is that basically accurate?
   1718. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:40 PM (#5697616)
@andyblarsen
Following Following @andyblarsen
More
Grayson Allen and what he likes about SLC & Utah: "When I was out there, I was really excited to see the mountains and everything. I'm from Florida, so I don't see any change in elevation at all. For me, someone who loves outdoors and loves nature, Salt Lake City was beautiful."


He's not wrong, but pretty funny after the discussion here.

My cautiously optimistic take is that the last Jazz draft pick I hated this much was Gordon Hayward.
   1719. tshipman Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:41 PM (#5697617)
Do you have the study that shows this? I'm only semi-being accusatory here. I generally use them together, and I think it's a fair point that his free throw percentage isn't elite. But I think one of the benefits of looking at the FT% is usually it has a higher sample size than 3pt%, which is why it's more predictive. For a guy who shoots a bunch of 3s and not many free throws (DDV), I'm not sure that we should expect it. In fact, I wouldn't.


There are a ton of studies that show this. Here's one using recent data.
   1720. stevegamer Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:45 PM (#5697619)
1697. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:03 PM (#5697590)
the 4 villanova guys are all gone. i did not think that would happen, let alone this quickly.


I have no idea why you think they weren't all getting drafted - that's basically a completely crazy thought. It simply can't be Bridges. If it was Brunson, I have no idea why. Was it Spellman or Divicenzo you thought wasn't getting drafted? They were both projected as early second round guys. I'm guessing whatever site you've been using to do your picks/blurbs (The Stepien, I think) really hated one of them, maybe.

   1721. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:46 PM (#5697620)
Truth. Now we can get to the biggest story of the summer--which team is going to get saddled with Dwight Howard. The most unwanted HOFer of all time in any sport!

Somewhere, a single tear rolls down Alex Rodriguez's cheek.
   1722. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:48 PM (#5697621)
An alternate interpretation: Porter's medicals are so heinous that even the Sixers were scared off.

Bonus alternate interpretation: the Sixers are still dreaming of signing LeBron and therefore wanted someone who either can contribute immediately or be traded for full value immediately, and Porter is neither.

A: nah, teams were scared off because they didn't know enough, not because they knew too much.

B: this was a joel embiid situation. porter's nearly limitless upside makes it worth taking him, even if you have to wait 2 years for him to get on the court.
   1723. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:48 PM (#5697622)
Somewhere, a single tear rolls down Alex Rodriguez's cheek.

Naw, Dwight is way more hated. Dude has yet to play for a team that didn't end up hating him.
   1724. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 21, 2018 at 11:58 PM (#5697624)
i hope everyone else is as amused by this as i am:
BBTF mock draft:
39. 76ers - 57i66135 - Jarred Vanderbilt, F, Kentucky
43. Sixers (from DEN) - 57i66135 - Isaac Bonga, F, Germany
56. 76ers - 57i66135 - Issuf Sanon, G, Ukraine
60. 76ers - 57i66135 - Rodions Kurucs, F, Latveria

real draft:
39. lakers - isaac bonga, F, germany
40. nets - rodions kurucs, F, latveria
41. nuggets - jarred vanderbilt, F, ketucky
44. wizards - issuf sanon, G, ukraine
   1725. sardonic Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:05 AM (#5697625)
BTF RT:

Marcus Thompson

@ThompsonScribe
Warriors had a deal in the works to buy a pick, but the player they wanted got taken so they didn't pull the trigger
   1726. Booey Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:09 AM (#5697626)
Since I have to root for the guy now, I'm trying to think of the positives...

Well, Donovan Mitchell seems to be excited about him. So that's something.

I never saw Allen play...is it possible that people are underrating him purely as a player became of the personality/dirtiness issues?
   1727. stevegamer Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:16 AM (#5697627)
76ers pick Antetokounmpo at 60. Even though he played in college, I'd expect he might be stashable overseas.

I never saw Allen play...is it possible that people are underrating him purely as a player became of the personality/dirtiness issues?


Maybe, but he comes off as a kid who hasn't really had to work for much, and has been treated as special. That's not a good thing when you're moving from college to the pros.
   1728. tshipman Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:24 AM (#5697628)
I never saw Allen play...is it possible that people are underrating him purely as a player became of the personality/dirtiness issues?


Maybe ... he's really old (oldest guy in the first round, I think), is a terrible athlete (just awful rebounding numbers, for instance) and has no real NBA skills other than 3p shooting.

He's generally the kind of guy you take a chance on in the second round. JJ Redick is the patron saint of these guys, but Redick had to improve dramatically when he entered the league, and took 4 years before he was worth playing.
   1729. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:53 AM (#5697633)
76ers pick Antetokounmpo at 60. Even though he played in college, I'd expect he might be stashable overseas.
they already traded him (and ray spalding) to dallas for shake milton.


i know i'm a huge ####### weirdo about this stuff, so i'm gonna try to get most of my ######## out of the way:
10 drafting bridges - grade D
trading bridges for smith and MIA's 2021 unprotected 1st round pick - grade A
26 drafting landry shamet - grade D
trading 38 for 2 future 2nd round picks - grade B
trading 39 for cash and CHI's 2019 2nd round pick - grade D+
trading 56 and 60 for shake milton - grade D

what they should have done instead:
10 draft michael porter - grade A
26 draft isaac bonga (stash) - grade B
trade 38 for 2 future 2nd round picks - grade B
39 draft jared vanderbilt - grade C
56 draft allonzo trier - grade C
60 draft shep garner (stash) - grade D


   1730. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 22, 2018 at 01:04 AM (#5697638)
I don't think this was as bad a night for the Suns as the mockery would indicate.

They have a starting five of Payton/Booker/Bridges/Jackson/Ayton, with Chriss and Bender. That's a fair amount of talent and pretty young. Yes, they probably need a better point (Elfrid Payton is an RFA). And yes, none of those guys have been that great in the Association (that's how you go 21-61). And yes, they have a bunch of dead salary. But in terms of potential I'd take them in a heartbeat going forward over lots of teams. Wouldn't be the worst thing to be bad another year to round it out.
   1731. MHS Posted: June 22, 2018 at 07:31 AM (#5697643)

I don't think this was as bad a night for the Suns as the mockery would indicate.


I think it is worse actually.

They made the biggest mistakes in the draft.

They passed on Doncic. Then traded a highly valuable unprotected draft pick, in a draft that will have two high school classes, for a player with less upside guy.

It is a remarkable chain of events that has the potential to be as infamous as the Nets Trade or Bowie of Jordan.

Of course it could still not work out since the confidence bands around all of these things are wide but their is a huge left tail in their moves and a much smaller right tail than their should be.

The Miami pick should have been off the table. It is arguably the most valuable future traded draft asset in the league at point, and they gave it away for guy with less upside.

At first glance the teams who did the best with what they had in no particularly order.
The Mavs
The Warriors
The Nuggets
The Celtics
The Rockets!
The 76’ers
   1732. MHS Posted: June 22, 2018 at 07:35 AM (#5697645)
I like what’s the Grizz did too.
   1733. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: June 22, 2018 at 07:45 AM (#5697649)
All in on Khyri Thomas.
   1734. PJ Martinez Posted: June 22, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5697663)
Which is more valuable, Miami's unprotected 2021 first-rounder, or the Dallas pick that's protected 1-5 next year, 1-5 the year after, then 1-3, and then not at all?
   1735. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 22, 2018 at 09:36 AM (#5697676)
Might depend on how you discount a '21 pick versus a '19. Likely the Dallas pick, though.
   1736. . . . . . . Posted: June 22, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5697696)
Maybe ... he's really old (oldest guy in the first round, I think), is a terrible athlete (just awful rebounding numbers, for instance)


Note how wrong this is - a good example of the limitations of stat-driven draft analysis. Allen's tested athletic numbers are superlative - was near the top of many categories at the combine. It's an example of when you have the proxy data (rebounding) and the real data (actual vertical, etc) and the proxy isn't telling you what it should. My guess is that if Allen were black he'd be seen as a viable 3 and D prospect; I'm interested to see how he develops outside of Duke's system given the success in a good league at a young age and that the tools are all there.

He's still a slight overdraft, IMO, but an intriguing prospect.
   1737. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 22, 2018 at 09:56 AM (#5697710)
On Phoenix: I wouldn't have done any of the things they did. But they are not ###### or hopeless, they have a better roster looking forward right now than most of the other lottery teams. Drafts are crapshoots and Ayton may end up better than Doncic, and so on.
   1738. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5697727)
On Phoenix: I wouldn't have done any of the things they did. But they are not ###### or hopeless, they have a better roster looking forward right now than most of the other lottery teams. Drafts are crapshoots and Ayton may end up better than Doncic, and so on.

I don't have any real thoughts on Ayton or Doncic but I don't like any of their current players, not a one. Booker is obviously the guy with the most talent, but he's also (presumably) about to sign the Wiggins special this summer, and I'm not at all sure he's going to be worth it. I think they've arguably done the least with the most opportunity of any of the bad teams over the last few years, just as bad as Orlando.
   1739. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:09 AM (#5697728)
I keep reading that Jacob Evans is a boring pick. He can defend, shoot a little, handle the ball, and can probably can hold his own in the NBA right now, but it's a boring pick. That sounds pretty freaking good at 28.


He does have a boring name.

Kyle Anderson, Justin Anderson, Josh Hart, that kind of boring pick.
   1740. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:11 AM (#5697733)
It's an example of when you have the proxy data (rebounding) and the real data (actual vertical, etc) and the proxy isn't telling you what it should.

Isn't this backwards? The things he actually does on the court are the things that matter, and we know he didn't create off the dribble, didn't play defense, and didn't rebound, despite being 2-3 years older than many of his opponents and thus much more physically developed.
   1741. JJ1986 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:16 AM (#5697736)

Note how wrong this is - a good example of the limitations of stat-driven draft analysis. Allen's tested athletic numbers are superlative - was near the top of many categories at the combine. It's an example of when you have the proxy data (rebounding) and the real data (actual vertical, etc) and the proxy isn't telling you what it should. My guess is that if Allen were black he'd be seen as a viable 3 and D prospect; I'm interested to see how he develops outside of Duke's system given the success in a good league at a young age and that the tools are all there.

This is super on brand.
   1742. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:19 AM (#5697740)
I'm starting to see "whispers" and "rumors" that Porter might not play much this year, could need a redshirt season, etc. If true, that would explain the slide.

They passed on Doncic. Then traded a highly valuable unprotected draft pick, in a draft that will have two high school classes, for a player with less upside guy.

It is a remarkable chain of events that has the potential to be as infamous as the Nets Trade or Bowie of Jordan.


Sure it *could* happen. But how likely is that? I agree on the trade being pointless and bad, but it's still nowhere near the impact of the Nets one (multiple picks and swaps). Also, I think it's unlikely that Ayton is as bad as Bowie or Doncic is as good as Jordan. The hyperbole is a bit much.

OTOH, I do wonder exactly how those internal discussions for PHX went. It seemed pretty obvious for a while that Brides was the likely PHI pick. Did they try moving up with NYK or CHI first? Did they start smaller and work their way up to that pick? Did they just panic when they realized they didn't like anyone when it was their turn to pick?
   1743. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5697741)
When I feel the temptation to snark an internet poster for falling in love with measurables over actual performance in basketball games, I have to remind myself that half the actual decision makers in the NBA do the same.

It's definitely backwards to call on-court performance proxy data and physical measurements real data. You draft a guy and pay him millions of dollars for his ability to perform on a basketball court.

But it does offer a peek--hard for me to understand, so noteworthy to get such a peek--into the mind of a person who loves physical measurements and predraft workouts and values them above performance in games: the "this is a guy you can dream on" mentality. Because, again, I think this is genuinely how a lot of people who run actual NBA teams think: they genuinely believe the physical measurements are real data (because they are concrete, certain and easily quantifiable) and performance in basketball games is proxy data (because it is difficult, impossible, to put this number on that player and be sure it's correct), forgetting along the way the purpose of their entire endeavor is to win basketball games, not to have the tallest/longest/most athletic players.

There is certainly a strong correlation between having the tallest/longest/most athletic players and winning basketball games--but the former is an imperfect predictor of the latter, not the other way around. Athleticism is useful to an NBA team only so far as the player is able to apply it, in concert with four other players, to win basketball games.

Also, it's screamingly hilarious tha Grayson Allen of all people is the pretext for this discussion.
   1744. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:34 AM (#5697753)

There are a ton of studies that show this. Here's one using recent data.


Thanks for linking this. Reading through it, a few things I think are worth noting:

1. DiVincenzo's 3pt% (40%) is only just about average for the sample set. A good reminder that shooters in the NBA were very good shooters in college.
2. DiVincenzo's FT% (70%) is about the 20th percentile.
3. The study has FT+3PT as being a touch more accurate than 3PT% alone, which would help DiVincenzo, but still would probably have him in the 30-40% percentile for a shooter.
4. My initial thinking was that a big reason why FT% would be more predictive than 3PT% would be additional sample size. But if you look at the sample size of their population, it's pretty much a 50/50 split on FTA and 3PA. I found that interesting (curious if other studies show the same - there weren't that many data points here - just 44 players that met the criteria and had NBA data to compare against.
4. I don't think the study does a great job of weighting the averages. It's been like 13 years since I took statistics, but it uses a cutoff of FTA and 3PA (DiVincenzo barely qualified with the FTA), but then doesn't try to weight individuals attempts. That probably does make the model significantly more difficult, but that was my initial point to PASTE. DiVincenzo has taken twice as many 3pa as FTA. That would put him in about the ~15% of the population in terms of difference in the two. I suspect that would mean his 3PA is more predictive than for a normal player, although even still it's hard to see a case where he projects as better than fine (as a rookie).
   1745. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5697757)
I've seen a lot of Allen over the years and think he's probably a late-first talent. He can really shoot, a solid passer, and a pretty good straight line driver. (Also a pretty hard worker, by all accounts.)

He's a pretty good athlete, in many respects. Not laterally, though - and while you can improve that I don't think he'll ever be a good defender. It's also been alleged that he's gotten a little bulkier than would be ideal, that that's slowed him down. That seems credible.
   1746. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5697766)
non-sixers thoughts (don't worry: i assure you, i'll get back to them):

the 2021 draft is expected to be the double-dip draft, with HS seniors and one-and-done freshmen eligible to declare. if that happens, the depth in that draft will be insane.

the problem with grayson allen isn't that he's white, or that he's a petulant ####, or that he looks like the zodiac killer; the problem with him (well, specifically the problem with drafting him in the first round) is that he's a defensive liability and he peaked three years ago.

my favorite picks/fits:
WAS: troy brown
SAS: lonnie walker
IND: aaron holiday
BOS: robbie williams
GSW: jacob evans
LAL: isaac bonga
MIN: keita bates-diop
OKC: kevin hervey
HOU: deanthony melton


my favorite draft classes:
5 MIN: josh okogie, keita bates-diop
4 OKC: devin hall, kevin hervey
3 WAS: troy brown, issuf sannon
2 NYK: kevin knox and mitchell robinson
1 DEN: michael porter, jarred vanderbilt, rodions kurucs
   1747. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5697768)
I think I'll try to find some time today/this weekend to look at # of white and non-American players drafted per team over the last ~10-15 years (first round and total). I'm kind of curious. I'll probably just pick about 10 teams.
   1748. . . . . . . Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5697770)
But it does offer a peek--hard for me to understand, so noteworthy to get such a peek--into the mind of a person who loves physical measurements and predraft workouts and values them above performance in games: the "this is a guy you can dream on" mentality. Because, again, I think this is genuinely how a lot of people who run actual NBA teams think: they genuinely believe the physical measurements are real data (because they are concrete, certain and easily quantifiable) and performance in basketball games is proxy data (because it is difficult, impossible, to put this number on that player and be sure it's correct), forgetting along the way the purpose of their entire endeavor is to win basketball games, not to have the tallest/longest/most athletic players.

There is certainly a strong correlation between having the tallest/longest/most athletic players and winning basketball games--but the former is an imperfect predictor of the latter, not the other way around. Athleticism is useful to an NBA team only so far as the player is able to apply it, in concert with four other players, to win basketball games.

Also, it's screamingly hilarious tha Grayson Allen of all people is the pretext for this discussion.


Where in my post did I talk about "value". The question is: is Grayson Allen a good athlete (relative to other draft prospects), and there the answer is unequivocal "yes". He's also, unequivocally, a shitty rebounder for his size and raw athleticism. The question is why and how that alters his NBA projection.

If the thesis is: Grayson Allen was a bad college rebounder, and that correlates well to NBA rebounding, so Allen is likely to be a bad NBA rebounder - that's a sentiment I can get behind. If the thesis is Grayson Allen was a bad college rebounder, so he's a bad athlete - that's demonstrably false.

Also, looking at other sports, in-game results don't always beat fundamental data. Baseball pitchers, for example: Velocity and spin rate are much more predictive than run prevention and K rate. Basketball defense - a great college defender with a short wingspan is likely to have much more issue with the NBA transition than a great college defender with a long wingspan. The old saw about NFL RB projection being a simple function of speed and weight. So clearly proper scouting is a blend of results and fundamental measurements. And the question is how much of each leads to the best predictions.

What makes Allen interesting is that his athletic testing was so excellent. Everyone was ready to categorize him as a stiff based on his college results, except he isn't one. Something deeper is going on. Is it a lack of lateral quickness, which isn't tested well by standard combine tests but important to defense? Psychological? What are the odds that he's an NBA rotation player? Does the athletic testing meaningfully change that?

Allen is a fun test case because the stats and the skin color and the Dukeiness meant that there was a facile narrative but it's not supported by all the data.
   1749. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5697771)
But, I mean, Plantation League stats and measurable physical attributes are both proxies for how well a given player will perform in the NBA. How you weight the two signals is the only point of disagreement, right?
   1750. The Good Face Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:54 AM (#5697772)
they already traded him (and ray spalding) to dallas for shake milton.


i know i'm a huge ####### weirdo about this stuff, so i'm gonna try to get most of my ######## out of the way:
10 drafting bridges - grade D
trading bridges for smith and MIA's 2021 unprotected 1st round pick - grade A
26 drafting landry shamet - grade D
trading 38 for 2 future 2nd round picks - grade B
trading 39 for cash and CHI's 2019 2nd round pick - grade D+
trading 56 and 60 for shake milton - grade D


While the MIA 2021 pick could be incredibly valuable, that's 3 years away. Philly is ready to contend RIGHT NOW, and they desperately need shooting. So they wound up with a really athletic guy... whose shooting is a big question mark. I dunno, feel like they may have outsmarted themselves.

I've seen a lot of Allen over the years and think he's probably a late-first talent. He can really shoot, a solid passer, and a pretty good straight line driver.

He's a pretty good athlete, in many respects.


Allen is certainly athletic in an absolute sense. He's strong, he's quick, and he can jump, even by NBA prospect standards. But it's fair to question how well he translates that athleticism into creating positive events on the basketball court.
   1751. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 22, 2018 at 10:54 AM (#5697773)
Didn't Pelton translations rate Allen as the 3rd best offensive player in the draft in year one?
--
He's not going to ever be a good rebounder or defender. He's not a multi-position guy. He's Jodie Meeks with more versatility on O and less capable on D. That's a usable commodity.
   1752. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:06 AM (#5697779)
My thoughts on Allen are similar to Der K. I mean, it's not like he's just got good measurables. He was good in college. He's shown a bit of offensive versatility and ability to create a bit which Utah needs. I think the defense is a fair concern, although they do have Gobert in the middle for the forseeable future. I really don't like his attitude. Not just the dirtiness, but the dirtiness seems to come from a spot of immaturity and not being able to handle adversity well.
   1753. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5697781)
On Phoenix: I wouldn't have done any of the things they did. But they are not ###### or hopeless, they have a better roster looking forward right now than most of the other lottery teams. Drafts are crapshoots and Ayton may end up better than Doncic, and so on.

We can essentially close the book on Phoenix's February 19, 2015 transactions now that the future 1st rounders have conveyed or been traded. Viewed as a whole, Phoenix's combined trade has to be in the running for worst ever, at least based on information known at the time.

Let me try to recap (ignoring trivial assets):

On 2/19/15, the Suns traded Goran Dragic & Isaiah Thomas plus the most valuable pick conveyed that day [2018 #10 (LAL)] for pending free agent Brandon Knight, 3 future 1sts, [2016 #28 (CLE), 2018 #16 (MIA), and 2021 unprotected (MIA)], and salary filler.

On 6/23/16, the Suns traded one of those future 1sts [2016 #28 (CLE)], along with the #13 pick and Bogdan Bogdanovich, for Marquese Chriss.

On 6/21/18, the Suns traded BOTH of the other future 1sts [2018 #16 (MIA) and 2021 unprotected (MIA)] for Mikal Bridges--drafted with the 2018 #10 pick (LAL) they previously traded away--effectively undoing the draft pick portion of the 2/19/15 deal.

So in sum, they traded 2 All-Stars in their prime (Dragic & Thomas)--one of whom had perhaps the league's most team-friendly veteran contract--plus a rotation-caliber young wing (Bogdan Bogdanovich) and the #13 pick in 2016, for Marquese Chriss and the right to spectacularly overpay Brandon Knight, a subpar combo guard who doesn't play and they can't give away.

Moreover, the guy they wound up getting last night by undoing the prior pick swap, Mikal Bridges, is someone who probably shouldn't have even been on their board. He's the most polished and senior 3&D prospect in the draft, making him the epitome of a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect. He's likely to add short-term value to a bad team that's better off losing, with minimal chance of being any sort of real difference-maker to turn the team's fortunes around.

I have no clue what the Suns are doing. I don't think they know either. If I ran another team, I'd be trying like crazy to make a deal with the Suns right now.
   1754. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:09 AM (#5697782)
as a defender, grayson allen lacks length, strength, positional versatility, he's unlikely to competently defend primary ballhandlers, to challenge shots in scramble mode, or to cause otherwise disruptive events. and he's a poor rebounder.

an interesting note about donte divincenzo: he didn't start shooting 3s until he was a senior in high school. 40th percentile sounds about right for him at this point, but i think there's a good chance he'll overachieve.
   1755. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:12 AM (#5697785)
Re: 1753

I think you summarized it well. I feel like ~4 years ago the Suns had a lot of interesting assets, no money on the books, good young players. And to see what's happened has been pretty sobering.
   1756. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5697787)
I have no clue what the Suns are doing. I don't think they know either. If I ran another team, I'd be trying like crazy to make a deal with the Suns right now.

This is the better written, actually researched version of the point I've been trying to make around here forever. They haven't made the playoffs since 09-10! It's incredible how poorly run they are. They're the Kings, only they don't get talked about like the Kings because they're not on video saying "Nik is cool!" while drafting an obvious bust.
   1757. PJ Martinez Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5697788)
Mannix: "Asking around teams that passed on Porter Jr., and it's clear: The medicals, specifically the back issues, were terrifying. Denver rolls the dice here. But man, what potential upside."

Meanwhile: "The Celtics have not been able to track down Robert Williams for his conference call this morning. It has been postponed." As one person replied on Twitter, "If you’re wondering why Robert Williams slipped in the draft, consider this a bread crumb."
   1758. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5697789)
That stuff is why I didn't pick Allen in our draft, STEAGLES, even though I think he's a better player than a guy I did take (Milton). But Milton fits a lot of systems and might defend.
   1759. The Good Face Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5697791)
an interesting note about donte divincenzo: he didn't start shooting 3s until he was a senior in high school. 40th percentile sounds about right for him at this point, but i think there's a good chance he'll overachieve.


Another interesting Divincenzo note is that a huge percentage of his 3s this past season came from NBA distance; he's not a guy that abused the short college line and Jay Wright is fine with his guys taking the NBA 3 assuming it's a good look. I'm not surprised that he went where he did considering his combination of athleticism and shooting potential. One NBA scout a couple weeks ago was quoted as saying that Divincenzo is what Zhaire Smith will turn into in a couple of years if you're lucky.
   1760. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:27 AM (#5697797)
I just want to quickly note that I love that the NBA season never ends anymore. Free agency starts in 9 days! First summer league games are in 10 days! It's the best.
   1761. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5697799)
While the MIA 2021 pick could be incredibly valuable, that's 3 years away. Philly is ready to contend RIGHT NOW, and they desperately need shooting. So they wound up with a really athletic guy... whose shooting is a big question mark. I dunno, feel like they may have outsmarted themselves.
they outsmarted themselves when they passed on porter. that is an unrecoverable mistake, imo. they were not prepared to choose to pull the trigger.
they salved the wound by making this trade.
...then ground some popcorn salt into it by drafting shamet instead of a stashable euro.

the sixers are not ready to contend. they need a kawhi/george/butler/lebron, and then they need a gordon/lou/isaiah/tyreke. after that, they can start talking about shooters and 3+D wings.
I have no clue what the Suns are doing. I don't think they know either. If I ran another team, I'd be trying like crazy to make a deal with the Suns right now.
it's probably not a coincidence that the sixers were involved twice in that series of events. they're one of the few franchises that are willing to make deals that hurt them, if the value is right.
   1762. tshipman Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:29 AM (#5697801)
Note how wrong this is - a good example of the limitations of stat-driven draft analysis. Allen's tested athletic numbers are superlative - was near the top of many categories at the combine. It's an example of when you have the proxy data (rebounding) and the real data (actual vertical, etc) and the proxy isn't telling you what it should. My guess is that if Allen were black he'd be seen as a viable 3 and D prospect; I'm interested to see how he develops outside of Duke's system given the success in a good league at a young age and that the tools are all there.


This kind of ignores the ultimate measureable--age. Allen is really old for a first rounder. He was the oldest guy drafted in the first (I think after checking a few candidates).

But whatever. People parachute in every year with these silly amateur scouting reports and parachute right back out.
   1763. . . . . . . Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:30 AM (#5697802)
Combine testing. Tell me more about how Grayson Allen is a "terrible athlete".

Lane Agility Time:
Grayson Allen - 10.31 seconds (#1 in class)
Zhaire Smith - 11.01 seconds

Shuttle Run:
Grayson Allen - 3.04 seconds (#9 in class)
Zhaire Smith - 3.15 seconds

Three Quarter Sprint:
Zhaire Smith - 3.05 seconds (#2 in class)
Grayson Allen - 3.15 seconds

Standing Vertical
Zhaire Smith - 33 inches (T4 in class)
Grayson Allen - 32.5 inches (T6 in class)

Max Vertical
Zhaire Smith - 41.5 inches (T3 in class)
Grayson Allen - 40.5 (T6 in class)


   1764. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5697805)
Mannix: "Asking around teams that passed on Porter Jr., and it's clear: The medicals, specifically the back issues, were terrifying. Denver rolls the dice here. But man, what potential upside."

"terrifying" is not a cost-benefits analysis.

i'll repeat what i said last night:
teams were not scared away from porter because they knew too much about his injuries. they were scared off because they didn't know enough.
   1765. . . . . . . Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5697808)
This kind of ignores the ultimate measureable--age. Allen is really old for a first rounder. He was the oldest guy drafted in the first (I think after checking a few candidates).

But whatever. People parachute in every year with these silly amateur scouting reports and parachute right back out.


But straight projection systems that take this into account and don't see the athletic testing predict that Allen creates first round talent over his rookie contract - i.e. that he's a rotation player pretty much as soon as he sets foot on an NBA court. You can't pick and choose data that makes Allen look as bad as you want him to (the rebounding data) and ignore everything else that indicates he's an NBA-caliber player (pretty much everything else).
   1766. ej2557 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5697814)
But, I mean, Plantation League stats and measurable physical attributes are both proxies for how well a given player will perform in the NBA. How you weight the two signals is the only point of disagreement, right?


Stop with this Plantation League stuff. I see what you are going for and think your point is valid, but it is distasteful if you think about it a little more.
   1767. The Good Face Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5697817)
they outsmarted themselves when they passed on porter. that is an unrecoverable mistake, imo. they were not prepared to choose to pull the trigger.


Porter's back is apparently made of glass and laffy taffy. We didn't see the medicals, but for him to fall so far there has to be a significant chance of him never being healthy enough to have much of a career.

the sixers are not ready to contend. they need a kawhi/george/butler/lebron, and then they need a gordon/lou/isaiah/tyreke. after that, they can start talking about shooters and 3+D wings.


I'm not sure I buy that. Player development isn't linear and they have so much young talent. They need Embiid to be healthy, Simmons to be surrounded by shooters that can defend, and for Fultz to turn into... something. That's enough to seriously contend.
   1768. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5697819)
Combine testing. Tell me more about how Grayson Allen is a "terrible athlete".
disparities in experience and technique can throw off that kind of testing.

grayson allen has prepared for those combine events for the last 4 years. he's probably done each of them hundreds of times.

zhaire smith has probably not done a "lane agility" drill more than a half dozen times in his life.
   1769. tshipman Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:46 AM (#5697820)
Combine testing. Tell me more about how Grayson Allen is a "terrible athlete".


Combine testing is mostly worthless.

Athleticism is measured on the court in the NBA. Grayson Allen has bad to terrible athletic indicators. He's been a bad defender in college. Expecting that to change because he had a good shuttle run time is silly.

Combine testing is good for adding data to a limited sample size. Overdrafting him on the hope that one afternoon in Chicago is more relevant to his NBA career than 4 years of college seems ridiculous to me.
   1770. . . . . . . Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5697832)
Grayson Allen has bad to terrible athletic indicators.


Well, he had a high steal rate, so no. I think the pure stats-based projections systems have him in the 40s. So the question is whether the athletic testing is enough to push him into the 20s, where he was picked.
   1771. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:13 PM (#5697844)
I'm not sure I buy that. Player development isn't linear and they have so much young talent. They need Embiid to be healthy, Simmons to be surrounded by shooters that can defend, and for Fultz to turn into... something. That's enough to seriously contend.
no, it's not.

it's enough to dream on, but when you want to win championships, you need more.
Porter's back is apparently made of glass and laffy taffy. We didn't see the medicals, but for him to fall so far there has to be a significant chance of him never being healthy enough to have much of a career.
when you're aiming to win championships, the difference between drafting royce white (3 career games played) and tyler zeller (400+ GP) is not even a rounding error.

teams were not evaluating porter based on his medical file; they were evaluating him based on this one recent blip, where he pulled out of an organized workout.
   1772. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:32 PM (#5697863)
Hmm, the league might actually need to crack down on the tweeting next year (or at least I suspect they'll try harder):
When Atlanta Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk found out whom other teams were planning on drafting and that he'd be able to select Kevin Huerter with the 19th overall pick, there was no need to trade up to get the Maryland guard.

Schlenk told 95.7 The Game in San Francisco on Friday that he had a deal in place to acquire the No. 17 pick from the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for a draft pick, but he never had to make that deal because the media were projecting picks on Twitter.
   1773. sardonic Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5697865)
Say what you will about the tenets of STIGGLES, but at least it's an ethos.

I'm not sure I buy that. Player development isn't linear and they have so much young talent. They need Embiid to be healthy, Simmons to be surrounded by shooters that can defend, and for Fultz to turn into... something. That's enough to seriously contend.


I agree with this strongly. To extend STIGGLES's analogy, the difference between drafting Royce White (3 career games played) and Tyler Zeller (400+ GP) and Greg Oden (105 GP) is not even a rounding error.

I think the larger point was that in 2014, you might have said for the Warriors to win championships, you'd need to add one more player to upgrade the starting PF spot, become a DPOY, defend centers credibly and add playmaking in 4-on-3 situations to beat the trap, someone like LaMarcus Aldridge; then you'd need a true top 5 player in the league who can take big shots and drive one of the best offenses in the league, like a Russell Westbrook.

In 2016, you might have said that the Rockets, to win championships, they'd need to get another star to share the burden with James Harden, and then also find a big man who could defend the rim and roll hard to the rim on pick and rolls, someone like DeAndre Jordan.

   1774. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:38 PM (#5697875)
Note how wrong this is - a good example of the limitations of stat-driven draft analysis. Allen's tested athletic numbers are superlative - was near the top of many categories at the combine. It's an example of when you have the proxy data (rebounding) and the real data (actual vertical, etc) and the proxy isn't telling you what it should. My guess is that if Allen were black he'd be seen as a viable 3 and D prospect; I'm interested to see how he develops outside of Duke's system given the success in a good league at a young age and that the tools are all there.

He's still a slight overdraft, IMO, but an intriguing prospect.

I agree with your conclusion that he's a slight overdraft but an intriguing prospect, yet I disagree with the underlying analysis.

All of these Grayson Allen posts highlight the perils of generically calling someone athletic or unathletic. There are several types of athleticism that matter, and Grayson is strong in some areas and weak in others. I do not consider him a 3&D prospect because he lacks the sort of athleticism that translates to effective NBA defense. His lateral movement is poor, he has slow reactions, and he needs a lot of load time to get up in the air. He also has short arms, which make him effectively point-guard sized even though he has the height of a shooting guard. He has the same standing reach and wingspan as Aaron Holiday.

If you draft Grayson Allen, you're banking on his offense while figuring that he can become a passable enough defender, or that other guys (Gobert, Mitchell) can cover up his weakness there. He's probably a plus athlete in most senses that matter offensively. He's coordinated in his movements as a ball handler, he has a pretty good first step, and his body control is above-average as well. His leaping ability is much more useful on offense, where it's proactive rather than reactive. He can elevate to create space for a jumper or get a decent look in the lane. His offensive skill is also fairly advanced. He shoots well off the dribble and off movement, making him potentially more than a catch-and-shoot guy. He also has better vision and passing ability than a standard shooting guard, averaging more than 5 assists per 40 with a 2:1 AST/TO ratio this year.

So yeah, intriguing prospect who I'd like more in the second round.
   1775. aberg Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5697883)
I'm pretty happy with the Wolves draft. Okogie wasn't a guy I focused on a lot in the first round, but he has a lot of similarities to Khyri Thomas, who I really liked. I'd love to hear from Der-K or one of the other GaTech people with more about his game. In broad strokes, a long, powerful wing defender who already has the skills to join an NBA rotation on that side of the ball is very much in line with what I wanted them to draft. I'm not sure about the shooting because the mechanics are much worse than the form. At least the rest of the team has so many initiators that they can let him be a catch and shoot player. In a broad sense, a really good college defender who can get to the line, but needs to work on his shooting and playmaking is a pretty similar profile to what Jimmy Butler was coming into the league (and Okogie is younger). The downside is that Thibs already doesn't like to play rookies, and Okogie appears quite raw offensively, so it's hard to imagine that (a) he'll get much of a chance to develop soon, or (b) he will contribute much to a team that really needs wing depth.

I was much happier with Bates-Diop in the second round. I would have been happy with him at 20, so getting him at 48 made me very excited. He is one of the players with the smallest gap between ceiling and floor in the entire draft class, in my mind. I imagine that he'll play as a smaller 4 most of the time. Thibs tried to do that last year, but didn't really have the personnel for it. When Bjelica played the 4, the team was actually pretty good, but when they tried to do it with Butler or Wiggins, the defense cratered. He probably won't be a great outside shooter, but should be able to make enough that he doesn't shrink the court. He reminds me of someone like Dante Cunnignham, who is a really nice guy to have around.

Overall, I think that both of these guys will provide more value than Jamal Crawford or Georges-Hunt did last year. Depending on how likely Thibs is to use Okogie this year, it might spell the end for Tyus Jones, who I like a lot. I take it as a given that Rose will be back, and it would be hard to use Jones, Rose, and Okogie off the bench together. The two big needs in the offseason were three-point shooting and perimeter defense. I think they made good gains in the latter in the draft, but definitely need to address the former in free agency. I'm now even more focused on guys like Joe Harris and Wayne Ellington and less interested in Avery Bradley.
   1776. aberg Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5697889)
teams were not evaluating porter based on his medical file; they were evaluating him based on this one recent blip, where he pulled out of an organized workout.


You keep saying this, but what is it based on? I have no idea what the medicals actually said and wouldn't be qualified to analyze them if I did. We had this discussion when Porter first got hurt and you asserted that it was an acute injury that wouldn't become chronic. I posted a doctor's quote that his specific injury has an 85% recurrence rate and you disagreed. I am agnostic about his actual health, but I'm failing to understand your position and would like to hear more about it.

Do you think he's likely to be healthy? If so, why? Or are you saying that the likelihood of health doesn't matter due to the talent level, because that level of talent is so rare? If that's the case, I understand the argument, even if I would weigh it a little less aggressively.
   1777. Booey Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5697894)
I'm not sure I buy that. Player development isn't linear and they have so much young talent. They need Embiid to be healthy, Simmons to be surrounded by shooters that can defend, and for Fultz to turn into... something. That's enough to seriously contend.


no, it's not.

it's enough to dream on, but when you want to win championships, you need more.


That's pretty much exactly where I'm at with the current Jazz. Mitchell, Gobert, and Rubio have all made comments saying they believe this to be a Finals caliber team. I admire the confidence...but they're wrong. In the superteam era, the Jazz aren't a true championship contender as they are. They need more. Don't get me wrong; even if they remain "just" a 50-55 win team that loses in the 2nd round every year, I'll still think it's worthwhile and I'll have a lot of fun watching it. We didn't have to suffer through "The Process" to get to this point, so it's not fair to hold the team to a "championship or bust" standard. But yeah, in this era, if you're talking about competing for actual titles rather than just being satisfied with making the playoffs and maybe winning a round, teams like the Sixers (and Jazz) can't just sit pat and rely entirely on their young guys development. Utah will likely have a hell of a time picking up that last piece(s), but if Philly is in a position to land another star, they need to do it.

But hey, the Jazz have Grayson Allen now! Whenever an opponent starts scoring a bit too much against us, we'll just send him in to take out their knees. Let's see Chris Paul drop 40 against us in an elimination game again without his ACL! (j/k)

Edit: Not that CP3 needs Allen's help to suffer series altering leg injuries, of course...
   1778. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 22, 2018 at 12:53 PM (#5697898)
Grayson Allen vs Chris Paul would be a great championship match of dirtiness. No refs, all below the belt actions.

I also really liked the Wolves' draft. Coming away with Okogie and Bates-Diop with 20 and 48 is fantastic.
   1779. tshipman Posted: June 22, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5697913)
Do you think he's likely to be healthy? If so, why? Or are you saying that the likelihood of health doesn't matter due to the talent level, because that level of talent is so rare? If that's the case, I understand the argument, even if I would weigh it a little less aggressively.


Yeah, the weird thing about the argument to me is that MPJ isn't the greatest archetype even if healthy.

He's a black hole on offense and indifferent on defense. His 90th percentile outcome is Melo, but 2 inches taller. I'm supposed to chuck all the medical history for that?
   1780. aberg Posted: June 22, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5697914)
Other things that stood out to me from the draft (many have already been covered):

-Totally agree with the analysis of Phoenix's lack of direction. I can't believe they traded that unprotected Miami pick; it seemed like one of the truly golden assets in the league and all they got out of it was reshuffling two wings who ultimately seem to be of comparable value. I guess you could argue that they are in good shape for a follow-up tank because they're "good" players are very young and they don't have a PG. If they draft a really good lead guard a year from now to go with Ayton, perhaps we're having a different conversation, but after having the #1 pick and lots of other draft capital, I would expect them to be in a better spot.

-Seems strange to me that Dallas had to give up that first rounder to move up two spots, but at least they came out of it with a player I love.

-The front line of Gordon, Isaac, and Bamba could be really interesting defensively. That team will look very unique. Really don't know if that means they will be good.

-I assume the Cavs drafted Sexton with the idea that he could be a reasonable facsimile of Kyrie. I don't see it. Seems like another short-sighted move.

-Like the Mannix tweet said- it's fun to dream on a healthy Nuggets roster. Jokic, Murray, Porter, and Harris would be brilliant offensively. They'll continue to suck on defense, though.

-I took Walker in our mock and when he started to slide, I was really hoping he'd get to Minnesota. I think he'll be outstanding for San Antonio. He would be my bet to be the most productive post-lotto pick over his rookie contract.

-There was a run of picks I didn't like late in the first. Wagner just seems too limited to be a good bet. Seems like Magic loves to draft established college guys from blue blood programs (Duke, UCLA, Michigan). Simons seems too raw for a team that is at its peak right now. I could be wrong about him because nobody has seen him play much. Like 57i66735 said about Shamet, he's just very limited and seems uninspired.

-Detroit getting Thomas and Brown in the 2nd round seems like very good value. They didn't overthink it and will probably get a rotation player or two out of it.
   1781. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5697922)
sixers moonshooting projection, v.1:
sign tyreke evans for 3/30
sign nerlens noel for 3/25
sign rodney hood for 3/24
sign jonah bolden to a hinkie special
sign marco belinelli for the caproom exception
sign ersan ilyasova for the veteran minimum.

roster
PG: simmons :: fultz/mcconnell/bayless
SG: tyreke :: smith/shamet/luwawu/milton
SF: covington :: hood/anderson/korkmaz
PF: saric :: ilyasova/bolden
C: embiid :: noel/holmes


shoot the moon, v.2:
sign tyreke evans for 3/30
sign nerlens noel for 3/25
sign rodney hood for 3/24
sign jonah bolden to a hinkie special
sign marco belinelli for the caproom exception
sign ersan ilyasova for the veteran minimum.
trade fultz, smith, saric, shamet, bayless to SAS for kawhi and walker

roster
PG: simmons :: mcconnell
SG: tyreke :: walker/luwawu/milton
SF: kawhi :: hood/anderson/korkmaz
PF: covington :: ilyasova/bolden
C: embiid :: noel/holmes

moonshooting v.2.b
same as v.2, but at the trade deadline:
trade hood, covington, 2021 MIA #1 (unprotected) to MIN for jimmy butler

roster
PG: tyreke :: mcconnell
SG: butler :: walker/luwawu/milton
SF: kawhi :: anderson/korkmaz
PF: simmons :: ilyasova/bolden
C: embiid :: noel/holmes


moonshooting v.3:
sign and trade lebron for bayless, luwawu and shamet
trade fultz, covington, saric to SAS for kawhi and walker
sign jonah bolden to a hinkie special
sign nerlens noel for the full MLE
sign ersan ilyasova for veteran minimum

PG: simmons :: walker
SG: mcconnell :: smith/milton
SF: kawhi :: anderson/korkmaz
PF: lebron :: ilyasova/bolden
C: embiid :: noel/holmes
   1782. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 22, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5697925)
A lot of these guys that have great verts in the combine (but don't play it up on film) don't have the body control or are largely two footed leapers thus unable to transfer that verticality in game.

I just watched Carter jump 39" at Duke's facility but nobody would mistake him for an explosive athlete on film.
   1783. JJ1986 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5697930)
I really don't think the Spurs are going to give you Lonnie Walker just because.
   1784. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 22, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5697940)
Okogie is a guy I thought would be a potential steal in the second round ... then his stock kept rising.

The Georgia Tech offense was a total nightmare, with very few clear high major talents on the roster, injuries galore, and a freshman point guard who is really more of a scorer than distributor. So, Okogie had to do almost everything - sometimes he'd play point despite a fairly brutal handle (the starter was eventually lost for the year due to injury), sometimes he'd play the four in a rare smallball-even-though-almost-no-one-can-shoot lineup.

He responded fairly well, I think. The team had little spacing, but he still shot 38% from three both this year and last. He went to the line a lot (explosive first step) and hit 82% from there - his free throws kept them in a bunch of games. (He's a better shooter than his rep - though he's more average than good.) Struggles to finish around the hoop - though some of that was lack of space / Tech's best offense sometimes being Okogie driving to the hole, hoping for a foul, and throwing up a prayer. Okay/willing passer, but not a creator. Competed on defense most of the time, which is saying something given that he played 36.4 minutes a game and could be pretty good on that end in time (but I don't see him as a stopper on day one). Often praised (rightly) for his motor, which is funny as a rep for a poor motor is part of how he was available to GT in the first place (he was not an elite recruit, despite some high level experience). Off the court, seems to be pretty smart. Also, he's young for a sophomore, younger than some freshmen in this draft. Note: has struggled in the limited reps I've seen him get outside GT (like the junior national team last summer).

He's a really good athlete - on the short list for best in the ACC this year - as he'd simply outrun people in transition or use his go go gadget arms to produce a chase down block. Having been force fed responsibilities since day one of college, I think it'd be good for him to get a Thibs year of high level skills training/refinement with only spot minutes to start, versus serious contention for rotation work.
   1785. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5697947)
You keep saying this, but what is it based on? I have no idea what the medicals actually said and wouldn't be qualified to analyze them if I did. We had this discussion when Porter first got hurt and you asserted that it was an acute injury that wouldn't become chronic.
i don't remember saying that, but i do still think it's possible that porter has suffered a series of acute injuries that can be treated, rather than a chronic, degenerative injury.
I posted a doctor's quote that his specific injury has an 85% recurrence rate and you disagreed. I am agnostic about his actual health, but I'm failing to understand your position and would like to hear more about it.

Do you think he's likely to be healthy? If so, why? Or are you saying that the likelihood of health doesn't matter due to the talent level, because that level of talent is so rare? If that's the case, I understand the argument, even if I would weigh it a little less aggressively.
i think there's a 70% chance that porter recovers 90+% of his athleticism/overall health.

what we're seeing with porter now is either a recurrence, or a setback, or rapid degeneration. the last one is probably not manageable, but the other two still are.
   1786. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: June 22, 2018 at 01:52 PM (#5697954)
I'm pretty happy with the Wolves draft. Okogie wasn't a guy I focused on a lot in the first round, but he has a lot of similarities to Khyri Thomas, who I really liked. I'd love to hear from Der-K or one of the other GaTech people with more about his game. In broad strokes, a long, powerful wing defender who already has the skills to join an NBA rotation on that side of the ball is very much in line with what I wanted them to draft. I'm not sure about the shooting because the mechanics are much worse than the form. At least the rest of the team has so many initiators that they can let him be a catch and shoot player. In a broad sense, a really good college defender who can get to the line, but needs to work on his shooting and playmaking is a pretty similar profile to what Jimmy Butler was coming into the league (and Okogie is younger). The downside is that Thibs already doesn't like to play rookies, and Okogie appears quite raw offensively, so it's hard to imagine that (a) he'll get much of a chance to develop soon, or (b) he will contribute much to a team that really needs wing depth.

I really like Okogie and think he's more developed offensively than you suspect. Just needs to work on keeping his focus as an off-the-ball defender to earn Thibs's trust. I wrote a report on Okogie before the draft, in particular comparing him to Mikal Bridges, and I'll copy and paste some of it here:

"I see Okogie as perhaps the best pure 3&D prospect in the draft. . .

He was the clear #1 option on a woefully outgunned team with minimal outside shooting and shaky point guard play. As a result, Okogie wound up needing to create much of his own offense and taking lots of forced jumpers off the dribble. . .

I like Bridges as a prospect, but I would have no interest in drafting him when Okogie almost certainly will be available 12-15 picks later. Although Bridges is 2-3 inches taller, consider the following:

- They have the same (7-foot) wingspan

- Their functional athletic indicators (steals, blocks, offensive rebounds) are essentially identical

- Okogie is stronger, more explosive, and probably a bit quicker as well

- Okogie is more than 2 years younger

- Okogie has a much higher free throw rate, usage rate, and unassisted field goal rate, suggesting some additional potential as a shot creator

- Mikal’s 3-point and free throw shooting efficiency advantages are small, with the outside shooting advantage disappearing when limited to catch-and-shoot attempts

This last item is particularly notable. Both Bridges and Okogie boast elite efficiency on catch-and-shoot jumpers, at 1.34 points per shot according to their Syngergy scouting reports at NBA.com. The difference is that nearly half of Mikal’s shots were of the catch-and-shoot variety, compared to only a quarter for Okogie. Based on their disparate circumstances, the degree of difficulty on Okogie’s field goal attempts was simply much higher.

I am not suggesting that Okogie is some sort of can’t-miss prospect. He really struggles to utilize his athleticism on drives to the rim, as his coordination and handle are much better suited to finishing off of lobs and cuts rather than off the dribble. His high free throw rate stems more from his strength and aggressiveness as opposed to any sort of enviable body control. He also lacks discipline defensively, gambling for steals too much and getting lost at times off-the-ball.

But with good coaching and in a system conducive to the 3&D skillset, Okogie is just the sort of prospect that should thrive and outperform his draft slot."

There's a bit more on Okogie here, along with write-ups for De'Anthony Melton, Zhaire Smith, Gary Clark, and Ray Spalding (previously posted when I drafted him for Denver).
   1787. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5697972)
sixers moonshooting projection, v.1:
sign tyreke evans for 3/30
sign nerlens noel for 3/25
sign rodney hood for 3/24

The paradox of stiggles is the incredible optimism about current Sixers combined with the least ambitious set of free agent ideas anywhere. You don't give Rodney Hood 3 years after the debacle of his Cleveland tenure! Totally unnecessary.
   1788. Chicago Joe Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5697974)
Huh, so Tony Carr got drafted by the Pelicans.
   1789. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5697979)
A lot of these guys that have great verts in the combine (but don't play it up on film) don't have the body control or are largely two footed leapers thus unable to transfer that verticality in game.

I just watched Carter jump 39" at Duke's facility but nobody would mistake him for an explosive athlete on film.


Reminds me of the fun trivia that when Michael Jordan was with the White Sox he didn't record the highest vertical in their camp; Ray Durham did. I mean Jordan was 30 and probably would have outjumped Durham when he was 22, but it's still an amusing reminder that measurements are just measurements and games aren't decided by them.
   1790. aberg Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:28 PM (#5697980)
Thanks Der K and Dandy. Good stuff. Makes me excited to see him and hopeful that he'll get real minutes.

i think there's a 70% chance that porter recovers 90+% of his athleticism/overall health.


Where do those numbers come from?
   1791. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:29 PM (#5697982)
This seems fine:
Robert Williams, who fell to the Celtics at No. 27 in Thursday's draft, admitted to sleeping through the team's introductory conference call Friday morning due to a "good night's sleep after a busy two days."
   1792. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:30 PM (#5697983)
This draft cements my rooting interest in the Bulls. The front office may be stuck in the past but I like any effort to still value the contributions of 4-year college players as they did with Denzel Valentine, Kris Dunn and now with Hutchison.

W. Carter seems like a good pick too, and a good guy.
   1793. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5697987)
Where do those numbers come from?
:

The paradox of stiggles is the incredible optimism about current Sixers combined with the least ambitious set of free agent ambitions anywhere. You don't give Rodney Hood 3 years after the debacle of his Cleveland tenure! Totally unnecessary.

hood still has a lot going for him.
37% career 3P shooter
positionally versatile
low turnover rate
only 26 years old

(nearly) any contract that gets signed this summer will look like a bargain after free agency starts next summer.
   1794. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:44 PM (#5697991)
positionally versatile


In that he can play really bad defense at the 2 or 3.


On Allen: I'm sure Jazz saw enough in games and in workouts to believe that their coaching stuff can get his athleticism to play up more in games. I trust their scouting and development generally, but also worry that this is the case of them overrating their own ability to improve players. There are still quite a few players I wish they had taken instead of Allen, but I'm not going to freak out when the Jazz FO has a good track record and the typical outcome for a 21st pick isn't anything great anyway.
   1795. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:47 PM (#5697995)
I like any effort to still value the contributions of 4-year college players

...why?

Everything I'm reading on Carter is nice, and he seems like someone worthwhile to root for. I have no problems with teams prioritizing character, as I can buy - to a certain extent - that it can help in predicting how a player might adjust to the NBA and lifestyle. I'm also fine with dinging character flaws, which is just the flipside. However, it really does appear that the Bulls might go too far in the other direction where character is the main defining trait they look for; also somehow being exploited for 4 years is also a positive in and of itself, while playing for rat-faced Coach K, even for just 1 year, is also something that could vault someone over a more talented player. If the Bulls really think Hutchison was the best player at that spot, that's fine, but the process that led them to that decision early enough to promise him seems, at best, extremely flawed, and at worst, ####### stupid.

The lessons the Bulls took from prior mistakes - and successes - seem to have led them to generalizing, and possibly even stereotyping, players based on broad indicators. The fact that they've occasionally succeeded besides themselves (Butler, Jimmy) just gives them more confidence that they're right.
   1796. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5697996)
Having said that, I'm still at the point where I'm talking myself into being ok with how the draft went last night. I don't believe 100% in the championships or bust mentality, but I do want to see progress and a plan to get back to competitiveness. The Bulls have undoubtedly raised their floor, but it also doesn't seem like they've raised their ceiling.
   1797. Eddo Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:51 PM (#5697998)
Everything I'm reading on Carter is nice, and he seems like someone worthwhile to root for. I have no problems with teams prioritizing character, as I can buy - to a certain extent - that it can help in predicting how a player might adjust to the NBA and lifestyle. I'm also fine with dinging character flaws, which is just the flipside. However, it really does appear that the Bulls might go too far in the other direction where character is the main defining trait they look for; also somehow being exploited for 4 years is also a positive in and of itself, while playing for rat-faced Coach K, even for just 1 year, is also something that could vault someone over a more talented player. If the Bulls really think Hutchison was the best player at that spot, that's fine, but the process that led them to that decision early enough to promise him seems, at best, extremely flawed, and at worst, ####### stupid.

I'm not sure about Hutchison, but I like the pick of Carter for purely basketball reasons (I also like it for rootability reasons). Once Bamba and Young went in front of the Bulls, Carter was the clear #1 on my board.
   1798. Chicago Joe Posted: June 22, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5698001)
What was the benefit to promising Hutchinson in the first place? Baseball, I can understand it. Basketball? Seems like there would be no point.
   1799. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: June 22, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5698006)
However, it really does appear that the Bulls might go too far in the other direction where character is the main defining trait they look for;


They kinda did the opposite of that with the Cam Payne trade, didn't they? Of course that was such a flop that they will now avoid flashy fun-loving cocky guys even more. But then again they also have Zach LaVine.
   1800. jmurph Posted: June 22, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5698011)
Flippy floppy
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