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Wednesday, May 30, 2018

OT - 2018 NBA Summer Potpourri (finals, draft, free agency, Colangelo dragging)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom can be bothered to curate their own thread to avoid detracting from what this site is really about:  complaints about mayonnaise.


EDIT: image is shrunken. Mouse over to show full size. -vi

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: May 30, 2018 at 12:56 AM | 3408 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   2901. sardonic Posted: July 07, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5706593)
Flip/repost:

I have only watched Wiggins a handful of minutes and have only taken a cursory look at his BBRef, so I'm totally talking out of my ass here, but count me as someone who thinks the Wolves should hold onto him. Maybe it's my mentality as an A's fan, but I think it's hard for a team to get upside like that. I think the Wolves best path to being a true contender is for Wiggins to take the leap.

I guess maybe you ditch Wiggins, Teague (player option in 2019) and Gibson and then roll the dice on signing Kemba Walker and getting Butler to opt in/re-sign. But as the Lakers have shown this offseason, nailing the FA market isn't exactly a stone cold lock either.

Now, if Wiggins actually hurts you with KAT and Butler and you can't work it out, then yeah, I think you gotta do what you gotta do. But even then I'd say the most ideal situation would be to bring in a coach who can manage the situation.

If anything, if I'm playing GM for the day, I'd look into a new coach before moving on from Wiggins.
   2902. JJ1986 Posted: July 07, 2018 at 01:42 PM (#5706598)
The Kings have a lot of capspace, but I didn't realize how much expiring salary they have. They can use all their caproom, then trade Temple, Kosta Koufos, Z-Bo and Shump for Wiggins and Dieng and even keep Cauley-Stein around.
   2903. maccoach57 Posted: July 07, 2018 at 01:45 PM (#5706599)
Pelton was never sold on Wiggins from the start, I recall. He is only 22, but then so is LaVine. Lowe was talking about Minnesota trying to get Leonard by trading Wiggins.

But as the Lakers have shown this offseason, nailing the FA market isn't exactly a stone cold lock either.


Yeah, they only got LeBron James.
   2904. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: July 07, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5706600)
Nurkic takes 4/48 to stay in Portland


Yeah, this reflects the salary situation most other teams face, but this is a very good deal for Portland. Nurkic is a solid NBA center, and they are paying him, ummm, Mason Plumlee money.
   2905. PJ Martinez Posted: July 07, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5706602)
   2906. sardonic Posted: July 07, 2018 at 01:49 PM (#5706603)
"Forward Jonas Jerebko plans to sign with the Golden State Warriors upon clearing waivers on Monday, league sources tell ESPN. Jerebko has a $4.2M salary that would need to be guaranteed if he's claimed."


I like Jerebko has a bench piece at the minimum, but he's an odd choice for the Warriors roster. With Looney re-signing and DMC, Jordan Bell and Damian Jones still under contract, getting a 4th/5th big is another step toward last season's 6 centers debacle. Given the Warriors stated plan of having only 14 players under full contracts, that'd leave only one more spot, assuming they re-sign Pat McCaw. Most fans were expecting two wings to be added instead of a wing and a big like Jerebko.

INITIATORS
Steph Curry
Quinn Cook

WINGS
Kevin Durant
Klay Thompson
Andre Iguodala
Shaun Livingston
(Pat McCaw)
Jacob Evans

BIGS
Draymond Green
DeMarcus Cousins
Jordan Bell
Kevon Looney
Jonas Jerebko

With guys like LRMAM, Wayne Ellington and even Nick Young still out in the cold, there are still options. Yuck, with all the Jamal Crawford rumors I hope he's not the last addition to this roster. That would truly be the FO rolling over to the players, a Lebron-esque FO move.
   2907. sardonic Posted: July 07, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5706607)
But as the Lakers have shown this offseason, nailing the FA market isn't exactly a stone cold lock either.



Yeah, they only got LeBron James.


Fair enough. But I think it's also fair to speculate that their plans going into the offseason were to land at least two of LBJ, Paul George and Kawhi, and they ended up with one. They're clearly okay with that as well, but they're also short of being a true contender, IMO. I guess they are second favorites in Vegas for the title next season, tied with Boston at 5/1. I wonder how that compares with the Rockets going into the season last year.

My point was more that pinning your strategy to nailing moves in FA isn't necessarily safer/better than betting on player development.
   2908. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 07, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5706612)
That's what I wrote 4 days ago. Now I'd expect a couple 2nd round picks from the Kings as well (they have 4 extra 2nd rounders over the next 3 drafts). I think Temple would be a great fit for Minnesota. High-effort, high-intensity defender who makes good decisions, doesn't use many possessions, and is known as an outstanding locker room presence. He's also a better catch-and-shoot option than Wiggins. The Wolves could then try to make a run this year and see if Butler and KAT patch things up, and if not, they could always trade Butler before the deadline and rebuild with KAT, recent draftees, extra picks, and a clean payroll.

i think dumping wiggins and trying to build around butler/towns is probably the best path for MIN, too.

wiggins and teague eat too many possessions, so one of them has to go if MIN wants to get the most out of towns/butler. the fact that towns only had 23% usage and butler only had 25% usage is a crime against basketball.
   2909. maccoach57 Posted: July 07, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5706613)
But I think it's also fair to speculate that their plans going into the offseason were to land at least two of LBJ, Paul George and Kawhi, and they ended up with one.


The Leonard saga is just beginning, and it will probably be lengthy and tiresome--already is for SA fans. I expect that Leonard himself does not know who his next team will be. But I think it is fair to say that playing for the Lakers with the GOAT is an option that a LA-born guy like Leonard will seriously consider.

They're clearly okay with that as well, but they're also short of being a true contender, IMO.


There is arguably only one "true contender" in the NBA right now seriously engaging Golden State--Houston. And as Pelton pointed out, Houston has lost Ariza and Golden State has added Cousins. The other possibilities to engage Golden State are Boston, and if Leonard is back and playing like Leonard, maybe San Antonio. I could see Toronto in the Finals if things don't work in Boston, but I think they would be roadkill if they got there.

That said, I think it is more that James is "OK with that" than the Lakers are.

Finally, sure, FA is a dice roll, which is why I have spent years on here saying that "The Lakers with Cap Space" was about as real and as scary as The Slenderman. There were people on this thread assuming that Westbrook was coming here, then George, then James, and they were finally right.

There are many things that could go wrong: James gets hurt, Leonard stays where he is, either with no trade or a trade to another team, Thompson decides to stay where he is, no other star shakes loose and wants to be here. But recruiting FAs with LeBron James on the roster and Magic Johnson as the pitchman is a little different than Jim Buss selling a broken Kobe Bryant. So we will see.

   2910. sardonic Posted: July 07, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5706615)
Yeah, I mean playing things out from the Lakers point of view you'd definitely take the way things played out 100/100 times. I think they have a clear path to being a true contender -- this season if they're able to shake Kawhi loose and he turns out to be good, or next season by signing him or someone else as an FA. That's more than you can say about most teams.
   2911. maccoach57 Posted: July 07, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5706616)
Lowe on Leonard

It's tempting to scoff at the idea that Ingram should be the holdup in acquiring an MVP candidate who just turned 27. The Lakers should happily flip anyone else, including Kuzma, who is probably overvalued at almost 23 and coming off a sort of hoggy rookie season in which he played minimal defense. (To be clear: Kuzma is solid -- a nice shooter to have around LeBron, with tippy-tap footwork that suggests he could be a decent and versatile defender if forced. He also may profile as a nice backup long-term.)

But every team needs sustainability, and Ingram has a chance to be really, really good -- a perfect fit alongside LeBron. He entered the league with nice playmaking feel, and built atop that in important ways last season. Ingram hit 39 percent from deep, got to the rim much more often, and drew about five free throws per 36 minutes -- a tidy number for a string bean kiddo.




   2912. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: July 07, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5706623)
But I think it is fair to say that playing for the Lakers with the GOAT is an option that a LA-born guy like Leonard will seriously consider.

The latest stuff I've seen/heard indicates that Kawhi's preference is to be THE guy.
   2913. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 07, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5706643)
I have only watched Wiggins a handful of minutes and have only taken a cursory look at his BBRef, so I'm totally talking out of my ass here, but count me as someone who thinks the Wolves should hold onto him. Maybe it's my mentality as an A's fan, but I think it's hard for a team to get upside like that. I think the Wolves best path to being a true contender is for Wiggins to take the leap.

they may not be able to afford all 3 of butler/wiggins/towns, and if keeping wiggins prevents them from keeping butler, that is not a path towards contention.


something that szym posted about this topic a while ago* has always stuck in my mind. betting on the improvement of any single young player is a crapshoot, but if you bet on a group of young players, while some may bust, others will succeed, and on the whole, your team will improve.

MIN does not have that kind of a group. when MIN bets on wiggins, they're rolling the dice.

however, PHI does (embiid/simmons/fultz/saric/smith), PHX does (ayton/jackson/bridges/booker/chriss/bender), SAC does (fox/bagley/hield/jackson/skal/giles), DEN does (jokic/murray/harris/porter).

when those teams bet on wiggins, they're not rolling dice, they're splitting pocket queens (i guess SAC and PHX have something more akin to pocket 6s/8s).


*found it:
What makes the Diamondbacks especially dangerous is those little twos in the age column - the major league squad is chock-full of players that are at ages they can improve. Counting on an individual young player to improve is generally not as good a bet as most people think. However, when massed as they are in Arizona, they act almost as an index stock - it doesn’t really matter if it’s Mark Reynolds or Conor Jackson or Chris Young or Stephen Drew or Justin Upton make a huge step forward so long as some of them do, which the odds do favor. I don’t know if it will be Conor Jackson hitting 25 homers or Chris Young rebounding from a weak rookie season or Justin Upton making huge adjustments carefully, but I know that there are going to be some player on this team that are going to move over a bunch of those dashed lines below.
   2914. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 07, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5706647)
Jerebko to the Dubs when he clears waivers.
   2915. maccoach57 Posted: July 07, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5706652)
The latest stuff I've seen/heard indicates that Kawhi's preference is to be THE guy.


Sure. That is the "latest stuff." I have also seen/heard "stuff" that says he wants to be here. Ofc no one really knows, except maybe Leonard and a few people around him,and no one knows who if anyone else the Lakers will get. But I think Lowe's summary is on target:

But LeBron is a Laker, and he is not pressuring L.A. to acquire a second star now, per sources familiar with his thinking. His decision to come alone for three guaranteed seasons speaks for itself. He knows Ingram has at least borderline All-Star potential, and that the 2019 free-agency class is loaded beyond Leonard. He has faith in the combined powers of his supernova talent and the Lakers brand.

His patience will have limits. But reading between the lines, the Lakers probably have the next calendar year before LeBron applies urgent pressure.


   2916. maccoach57 Posted: July 07, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5706666)
2913 is interesting, but the problem with it is the vast difference in the respective natures of the two sports.
   2917. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 07, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5706672)
2913 is interesting, but the problem with it is the vast difference in the respective natures of the two sports.


it's interesting the way "find a bunch of really good young players" is interesting. easier said than done.
   2918. sardonic Posted: July 07, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5706674)
MIN does not have that kind of a group. when MIN bets on wiggins, they're rolling the dice.

however, PHI does (embiid/simmons/fultz/saric/smith), PHX does (ayton/jackson/bridges/booker/chriss/bender), SAC does (fox/bagley/hield/jackson/skal/giles), DEN does (jokic/murray/harris/porter).

when those teams bet on wiggins, they're not rolling dice, they're splitting pocket queens (i guess SAC and PHX have something more akin to pocket 6s/8s).


Yeah, but two of MIN's guys are already All Stars. There's no way I'd bet on 3 of Ayton/Jackson/Bridges/Booker/Chriss/Bender or Fox/Bagley/Hield/Jackson/Skal/Giles over just Wiggins taking a leap.

Also c'mon, you have pocket pairs in poker and you split pairs in blackjack. That's a rough metaphor even for you.

If MIN can't keep all its players that's another thing altogether -- if I'm picking 2/3 then it's obviously Towns and Butler. As previously discussed, them hard capping themselves to get Tolliver vs. Bjelica is criminal.
   2919. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 07, 2018 at 05:33 PM (#5706762)
If MIN can't keep all its players that's another thing altogether
that's generally my interpretation of what's going on. MIN cannot afford to extend towns and butler next summer if they're already paying wiggins, teague and dieng.
Yeah, but two of MIN's guys are already All Stars. There's no way I'd bet on 3 of Ayton/Jackson/Bridges/Booker/Chriss/Bender or Fox/Bagley/Hield/Jackson/Skal/Giles over just Wiggins taking a leap.
butler is also a lot older than the rest of those players. if you strip him out of it (either due to his age, or his impending free agency), would you rather bet on wiggins becoming a 2nd star to towns, or on SAC's or PHX's young cores (plus wiggins) yielding two stars.
2913 is interesting, but the problem with it is the vast difference in the respective natures of the two sports.
the difference between baseball and basketball changes the incentives and the targets, but not necessarily the overall bent.
it's interesting the way "find a bunch of really good young players" is interesting. easier said than done.
that's why i want to see more iterations of the process.
Also c'mon, you have pocket pairs in poker and you split pairs in blackjack. That's a rough metaphor even for you.
i don't gamble on cards or dice.
   2920. Thok Posted: July 07, 2018 at 05:36 PM (#5706763)
Is there any evidence to suggest that Wiggins will ever be significantly better than Harrison Barnes?
   2921. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 07, 2018 at 06:01 PM (#5706772)
Is there any evidence to suggest that Wiggins will ever be significantly better than Harrison Barnes?

not really. the biggest reasons to believe in wiggins, imo:
he's still young
he's very athletic
he can create his own shot
there's an upward trend in his 3P shooting (and we know shooting generally improves over time)
a change of scenery may help him


the cost of acquisition is also kind of important. i wouldn't give up much more than cap space to get him.

   2922. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: July 07, 2018 at 07:42 PM (#5706793)
Kevin Knox is sort of like KD's skills in Giannis' body.
   2923. JC in DC Posted: July 07, 2018 at 08:21 PM (#5706813)
Really? Isn't that good?
   2924. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 07, 2018 at 08:37 PM (#5706818)
Well the bar has been set for Kevin Knox.

Are you as excited about the Summer League Debuts of Wendell Carter Jr and Chandler Hutchison as I am?

You probably are, because I'm not really that excited. Bulls are on in about an hour from now, 630 pacific. reddit nba links will have a link.
   2925. Howie Menckel Posted: July 07, 2018 at 09:00 PM (#5706827)

Adrian Wojnarowski
‏Verified account @wojespn

Sources: Charlotte, Chicago and Orlando finalizing trade that includes Mozgov to Magic, Biyombo to Charlotte and Julyan Stone to Bulls.
8:43 PM - 7 Jul 2018
   2926. PJ Martinez Posted: July 07, 2018 at 09:47 PM (#5706843)
"Mozgov and Biyombo being traded for each other is such a perfect coda on the summer of 2016 cap spike/lack of cap smoothing that I almost feel like we need to commemorate this deal somehow." -- Lowe
   2927. JJ1986 Posted: July 07, 2018 at 09:49 PM (#5706845)
I have derided Biyombo for being terrible several times over the past 2 years, but at least he's better than Mozgov.
   2928. smileyy Posted: July 07, 2018 at 11:43 PM (#5706881)
Trevon Bluiett is having himself a nice little summer league.
   2929. JC in DC Posted: July 08, 2018 at 07:21 AM (#5706895)
NJ: I watched the Knox and Mitchell highlights. One sloppy summer league game, but NY hasn't had long athleticism like that maybe ever. Knox's handle isn't great, but there's a lot of playable athleticism to like there. And Mitchell entices.
   2930. TFTIO ought to Stick with Ostriches Posted: July 08, 2018 at 08:02 AM (#5706897)
What in the hell are the Bulls doing?
   2931. . . . . . . Posted: July 08, 2018 at 09:22 AM (#5706899)
Re Knicks: watched highlights and was underwhelmed: really bad sign that Frank is a zero as a sophomore in summer league, and Knox and Mitchell seem like empty (extra-long) suits to me. But chacun son gout.
   2932. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 08, 2018 at 10:12 AM (#5706900)
What in the hell are the Bulls doing?


Don't ask them, #### if they know.
   2933. JC in DC Posted: July 08, 2018 at 10:19 AM (#5706901)
[2931] Pretty definitive conclusions from one summer league game, ...... I like the athleticism, as I said. NY doesn't have a lot of that, and hasn't in ages.
   2934. JC in DC Posted: July 08, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5706903)
And Wendell Carter looked good, didn't he?
   2935. TFTIO ought to Stick with Ostriches Posted: July 08, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5706926)
I do think that this might be the time to see what the Kings would do for Wiggins, however.
   2936. Tin Angel Posted: July 08, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5706929)
Tony Parker to the Hornets. That's kind of a bummer.
   2937. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 08, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5706949)
Zaza to DET, Brook Lopez to MIL
   2938. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 08, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5706958)
....holy ####### ####...there's no ####### way...

@JabariJYoung
Told #Spurs unlikely to match Kyle Anderson’s 4-year, $37M offer sheet clearing the way for him to join #Grizzlies ... tonight is the deadline

@AndrewDBailey
No one in NBA history matches Kyle Anderson's combination of AST%, REB%, STL% and BLK%.

If you round the qualifiers down, you add Chris Webber, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, Andrei Kirilenko, DeMarcus Cousins, Draymond Green, Oliver Miller, Ben Simmons and Jordan Bell.

@daldridgetnt
All four years of the Grizzlies’ offer sheet (four years, $37.15M) to Kyle Anderson (@wojespn first) are guaranteed, per source. Memphis likes Anderson’s real plus-minus, wants guys like Slo-Mo (& picks Jaren Jax/Jevon Carter) who one from winning organizations like the Spurs.

@JacobEGoldstein
My model gives Anderson a 99.9% chance of providing equal or greater value on this contract with an expected range (+/- 2 standard deviations) of between $56.9M and $126.2M
   2939. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 08, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5706963)
I enjoyed Kyle Anderson's time but I do wonder how much of his game translates outside of Spurs magic. I'm fine with the Spurs not matching there.
   2940. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: July 08, 2018 at 03:56 PM (#5706971)
Brook got 1 year/about 3.55 million from the Bucks. I'd imagine they'll cut Tyler Zeller's non-guaranteed salary now.

According to Frank Madden, the Bucks have about $15.2 million max to offer Jabari now under the tax and $17.7 under the apron. He unfollowed Giannis and the Bucks on IG yesterday though, for whatever that's worth.
   2941. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 08, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5706982)
I think that model has serious issues and also think Kyle benefits from the Spurs system.
I would DEFINITELY match.

Good wings are hard to find, player assessment models are finally coming around to recognizing this. He's an excellent passer and good to excellent defender at either forward spot. Solid rebounder for a three. Not a perimeter guy but reasonable efficiency with his shot. Only 24.
Lock that down...
   2942. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 08, 2018 at 05:17 PM (#5706995)
Told #Spurs unlikely to match Kyle Anderson’s 4-year, $37M offer sheet clearing the way for him to join #Grizzlies ... tonight is the deadline
The Lakers could get into on that. Or they would have been able to, except Rondo. Yuck.

Anderson's good. Definitely lock that down. A great pull for the Griz if it happens.
   2943. smileyy Posted: July 08, 2018 at 06:18 PM (#5707022)
Sign the Spurs are rebuilding?
   2944. tshipman Posted: July 08, 2018 at 06:38 PM (#5707026)
Good wings are hard to find, player assessment models are finally coming around to recognizing this. He's an excellent passer and good to excellent defender at either forward spot. Solid rebounder for a three. Not a perimeter guy but reasonable efficiency with his shot. Only 24.
Lock that down...


Anderson's not really a wing, though--particularly outside of SAS.

His best skill is rebounding. He's slow as hell. Even in San Antonio, retirement home to 2 big lineups, he's been shifting more and more to the 4.

His most common lineup (Aldridge/Anderson/Green/Mills/Murray) was +13 last year.
His next 2 most common lineups (Aldridge/Gasol/Anderson/and some combo of Mills, Murray and Green), netted out to +2.5

He has played a lot of three, but if you had to guess, you'd probably look at him as a 4 going forward.
   2945. TFTIO ought to Stick with Ostriches Posted: July 08, 2018 at 06:43 PM (#5707027)
If anything, if I'm playing GM for the day, I'd look into a new coach before moving on from Wiggins.

Well, sure. I'd love to see what a competent coach could do with that team; but if we accept Thibs as an immutable object for the next two years ..
   2946. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 08, 2018 at 07:10 PM (#5707032)
His most common lineup (Aldridge/Anderson/Green/Mills/Murray) was +13 last year.
His next 2 most common lineups (Aldridge/Gasol/Anderson/and some combo of Mills, Murray and Green), netted out to +2.5
according to bkref, anderson played in 6 lineups that had more than 50 minutes together. 5 of those 6 lineups were +8 or better per 100 possessions. as noted, anderson's most common lineup featured him at PF, but he was (at least nominally) a SF in the other 5 lineups (4 of them had gasol and aldridge; 1 had aldridge and bertans).
His best skill is rebounding. He's slow as hell. Even in San Antonio, retirement home to 2 big lineups, he's been shifting more and more to the 4.

his best skill is diversity. 3 STL+BLK per 36 minutes; 7 REB/36; 2:1 A:TO ratio; this year, he played a career high 27 MPG and got up to 58% TS%.


i've always been a huge fan of anderson, though. and this is a great post by 57i66135:
1401. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: June 27, 2014 at 12:26 AM (#4737194)
grant: not a huge fan, but eh. i would have rather packaged 39 and 47 to try to get back into the first round and steal kyle anderson. i'd have also rather taken jokic.

   2947. tshipman Posted: July 08, 2018 at 07:34 PM (#5707034)
according to bkref, anderson played in 6 lineups that had more than 50 minutes together. 5 of those 6 lineups were +8 or better per 100 possessions. as noted, anderson's most common lineup featured him at PF, but he was (at least nominally) a SF in the other 5 lineups (4 of them had gasol and aldridge; 1 had aldridge and bertans).


Well, let's look at NBA WoWY:

Anderson played 910 minutes with LaMarcus and without Gasol on the court, and 628 with Gasol on. He also got another 300 with Gasol and no LaMarcus.

With Anderson at the 4, the Spurs had 1.146 PPP on offense, and gave up 1.048. That's good!

With Anderson at the 3 and LaMarcus and Gasol on the court, the Spurs had 1.086 PPP on offense, and gave up 1.044 PPP. That's significantly less good!

With Anderson at the 4 +Gasol at 5 and no LaMarcus, the Spurs had a .991 PPP on offense and gave up 1.074 PPP on defense. That's REALLY bad. However, most of those lineups also included Bertans and Rudy Gay, so it's not entirely clear if he was playing the 4 or not.

I think in general, when playing with the starters, Anderson looked better as a 4 than as a 3. Further, I would suggest that he's headed to the 4 no matter what he played last year as he gets older and slower. Even if he's still 50%+ small forward next season, he won't be by year 3 of this contract.
   2948. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 08, 2018 at 07:50 PM (#5707036)
I think Anderson will shift to the four as well (he's the new Boris Diaw, in some ways), but I'd be very comfortable playing him at the three - particularly as he's been effective defensively there and is going to a team that doesn't run a lot.
--
His best skill is NOT rebounding, it's generating deflections through wingspan and timing. He's also a better playmaker than rebounder and, I'd argue, defender.

I'd also be careful reading too much into small sample WOWY numbers.
   2949. Quaker Posted: July 08, 2018 at 07:55 PM (#5707038)
Spurs should definitely match, imo. They can't get a comparable player with just $$ this offseason. Next offseason, most of the guys who are likely to get big $$ seem like bad investments to me. Obviously, you take KD or Butler at a max, but what are the odds either of them winds up in SA. Kyrie, Kemba, Klay, Tobias, & Middleton all strike me as guys who will be overpaid if they get the max.
   2950. tshipman Posted: July 08, 2018 at 07:59 PM (#5707040)
His best skill is NOT rebounding, it's generating deflections through wingspan and timing. He's also a better playmaker than rebounder and, I'd argue, defender.


This may be true, Der K, you probably watch more Spurs than I do, but deflections don't show up in the stats. Spurs were almost identical with opponent TOV% with him on and off the court. Rebounding they were better, despite him playing as a 4 a lot.

He is a decent playmaker for a non-guard, but not so good that you can run your offense through him.

   2951. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 08, 2018 at 08:00 PM (#5707041)
(Last time I liked Memphis signing a weirdo forward like this was Brian Cardinal ... which was working out until he got hurt and then ohhhhhnooooo)
   2952. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 08, 2018 at 08:06 PM (#5707042)
Oh, it's quite likely that I watch less than you do! :)

He was ninth in the league in deflections per minute, minimum 2000 min. (Robert Covington was the leader, a somewhat similar player)
When it comes to things like his impact on rebounding and generating turnovers, I'd like to use more than a year of data, especially given that other people in the lineups aren't randomized. If we do want to assess his value on off/on, plus/minus type measures - he looks pretty good.

I agree that you don't want to run on offense through him in more than spot duty, but I think he could develop into a 4-5 assist per game guy with that emphasis/higher usage.
(He was fourth in the NCAA as a sophomore in assists and looks very good with the ball.)
   2953. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 08, 2018 at 08:38 PM (#5707047)
(Spurs did not match)
   2954. Quaker Posted: July 08, 2018 at 09:24 PM (#5707058)
The one and only justification I can see for not matching is that most of the case for matching seemed to be based on advanced stats. I think there's something of a trend where a lot of mediocre players grade out well by advanced stats if they play as stretch 4s. Think of someone like Pat Patterson. It's not entirely clear to me that the resulting "good stats" are reflective of Patterson's or Anderson's unique talents vs. just that teams are almost always better playing small. It could be that sticking just about anyone between 6'7"-6'9" with a 30-35%% 3p% would result in more or less the same advanced stat boost.

I still would have matched.
   2955. tshipman Posted: July 08, 2018 at 10:07 PM (#5707066)
I kinda think it's a bad idea to match.

Kyle Anderson is a below average starter in the playoffs. He's a defense first guy who can't guard the other team's best players (Harden or Durant, mostly).

Those guys have value--you have to get to the playoffs, and he helps with that--but they're not worth making a long term commitment to. If you're penciling in Kyle Anderson for the next four years, that seriously limits your team.
   2956. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 08, 2018 at 10:11 PM (#5707068)
And Wendell Carter looked good, didn't he?


I can't tell if I want to give the Bulls the benefit of the doubt here or not -- but for a guy that just turned 19 a few months ago -- yea he looked good. He looks considerably springier than I imagined. Not explosive, but kinda reminds me of Noah in his ability to get off the floor, cover ground and run the floor. He's not explosive but he's got a good frame and plays with overall athletic coordination. Obviously has some skills offensively. Looked smooth on his corner three. Handle seems pretty weak imo but that can improve. Seems willing to find the open man and able, which is good.

Better test for him tonight against Wagner. Wagner will be outclassed physically but the Lakers will pressure Carter in PnR coverage more than he was last night.
   2957. PJ Martinez Posted: July 08, 2018 at 10:46 PM (#5707077)
Edit: Coke to 2940.
   2958. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 08, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5707090)
I kinda think it's a bad idea to match.

Kyle Anderson is a below average starter in the playoffs. He's a defense first guy who can't guard the other team's best players (Harden or Durant, mostly).

Those guys have value--you have to get to the playoffs, and he helps with that--but they're not worth making a long term commitment to. If you're penciling in Kyle Anderson for the next four years, that seriously limits your team.

we're still adjusting to the post-new-tv-deal era.

10MM was more than half of a max contract 3 years ago; now, it's barely 1/4. the only reason it still seems like real money is because of how much cap room has been sucked out of the market by terrible contracts from that first summer. as those contracts filter out of the league, contracts like this will be appreciated for what they are: insane bargains.

   2959. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 08, 2018 at 11:37 PM (#5707093)
Or to put it even more succinctly: a team just offered Zach Lavine 4/80 and another team matched it.
   2960. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 09, 2018 at 12:04 AM (#5707102)
Bulls vs Lakers Summer League: So far, this is the worst basketball I've ever seen on television.
   2961. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 09, 2018 at 10:28 AM (#5707140)
I can't decide how upset to be about the Lavine contract. I mean, it's not good. It's bad. I'm just not sure how bad. It's not Wiggins bad, but it has a little potential upside to it. Not much, but some. To be really upset would mean that the Bulls actually are taking themselves out of the running for a significant FA, and I'm now cynical enough to think this FO never could close the deal with someone anyway.

Stupid ####### Kings. Stupid ####### Bulls.
   2962. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 09, 2018 at 10:32 AM (#5707144)

10MM was more than half of a max contract 3 years ago; now, it's barely 1/4. the only reason it still seems like real money is because of how much cap room has been sucked out of the market by terrible contracts from that first summer. as those contracts filter out of the league, contracts like this will be appreciated for what they are: insane bargains.


Is there any reason not to just expect teams to sign a bunch of stupid deals the next two summers as they get cap space and miss out on the top FAs? Not entirely sure that impacts the Kyle Anderson deal but I feel like teams can't help themselves much of the time if they have cap space. It seems like it'll be a cyclical thing for at least one more cycle, to me, before enough of the contracts are staggered.

I had not realized Kyle Anderson's steals numbers were so impressive. I knew he was well thought of in the RPM and similar type stats on defense. He doesn't score enough or space the floor enough for me. I view those as the Spurs' weaknesses. Finding smart/long defenders seems like something they're really good at. I wouldn't have minded a match, but 4 years is a lot of guaranteed years. But I also kind of want the Spurs to rebuild, or try to plug some of the mid-level cost players with young guys on rookie contracts. I guess Anderson is maybe one of the guys you keep around even still.
   2963. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 09, 2018 at 10:33 AM (#5707145)
This is damning with faint praise, but I think the Booker contract is *way* better than the Wiggins deal. In fact, if Minnesota was able to trade Wiggins and a first or something for Booker, they should. Although I'm sure Phoenix is enamored with Booker.
   2964. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 09, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5707163)
Spurs hold on to Bertans with a 4/20 deal. Bertans seems to be selling himself a little short there but seems like a good deal all around. The reaction to Kyle Anderson is really interesting. I don't feel so bad now that I have no idea what to make of him because the NBA punditry seems exactly split on whether the Spurs should have matched or not. I think they let him go because they've got players from Philly on the way. I am 100% convinced Kawhi is going to Philly.
   2965. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 09, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5707170)
Is there any reason not to just expect teams to sign a bunch of stupid deals the next two summers as they get cap space and miss out on the top FAs? Not entirely sure that impacts the Kyle Anderson deal but I feel like teams can't help themselves much of the time if they have cap space. It seems like it'll be a cyclical thing for at least one more cycle, to me, before enough of the contracts are staggered.
oh, absolutely not. as terrible contracts from 2016 begin to expire, they'll be replaced new, also terrible, contracts. however, unlike 2016, all other contracts will have been priced into this new landscape, so terrible contracts will be more typical mistakes like overpaying nic batum (5/126) or enes kanter (4/70) instead of catastrophic mistakes like paying timofey mozgov 4/64 or bismack biyombo 4/70 or ian mahinmi 4/64.
This is damning with faint praise, but I think the Booker contract is *way* better than the Wiggins deal. In fact, if Minnesota was able to trade Wiggins and a first or something for Booker, they should. Although I'm sure Phoenix is enamored with Booker.

shoot the hostage. always shoot the damn hostage.
   2966. JC in DC Posted: July 09, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5707175)
So, I watched the NYK game last night. Kevin Knox can play. There's no question about that. How good can he be? I've really no sense. There are holes in his game, especially his ballhandling and defensive intensity, but his ups are super, and his confidence is high. He's got a decent stroke. He's so damn young and easy to dream on.

I'm getting worried about Frank. He's so skilled, but he's so deferential. There's nothing natural or instinctive about his approach to scoring: even when he decides to shoot or attack you can just tell he's mentally gone through a process of, "OK, I will not pass/distribute, I will attack." It's way too mental and thus hesitant. I'm not sure he overcomes that.

Robinson is not an empty suit. He's everything you want in a modern 5: long and hoppy and active. He's terribly out of game shape (no surprise), and skinny. He's got wider shoulders, though, and can fill out a bit. Not a lot of offensive arrows in his quiver, and doesn't fight for position on defense. Unsure he can stay on the floor for long periods of time.
   2967. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 09, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5707182)
Spurs hold on to Bertans with a 4/20 deal. Bertans seems to be selling himself a little short there but seems like a good deal all around. The reaction to Kyle Anderson is really interesting. I don't feel so bad now that I have no idea what to make of him because the NBA punditry seems exactly split on whether the Spurs should have matched or not. I think they let him go because they've got players from Philly on the way. I am 100% convinced Kawhi is going to Philly.

bertans: great value for SAS; good security for bertans.
anderson: the only reason to preserve cap space is because you have a plan for how to use it.
philly/kawhi: the "obvious" deal is something like this:

PHI: kawhi, mills
SAS: bayless, chandler, fultz, TLC, landry shamet, 2021 MIA #1

SAS gets out from mills, goes in the tank, gets two very high upside lottery tickets.
PHI gets kawhi without losing anyone from last year's core.

PHI's rotation:
lineup: simmons / redick / kawhi / covington / embiid
bench: mcconnell, mills, saric; wing reserve (smith, anderson, korkmaz, milton), big reserve (holmes, amir, bjelica, bolden)
   2968. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 09, 2018 at 12:20 PM (#5707190)
So, I watched the NYK game last night. Kevin Knox can play. There's no question about that. How good can he be? I've really no sense. There are holes in his game, especially his ballhandling and defensive intensity, but his ups are super, and his confidence is high. He's got a decent stroke. He's so damn young and easy to dream on.
knox has a lot of jeff green in him.
Robinson is not an empty suit. He's everything you want in a modern 5: long and hoppy and active. He's terribly out of game shape (no surprise), and skinny. He's got wider shoulders, though, and can fill out a bit. Not a lot of offensive arrows in his quiver, and doesn't fight for position on defense. Unsure he can stay on the floor for long periods of time.
robinson hasn't played meaningful 5v5 basketball in ~18 months. it's gonna take him a while to catch up, so his development path should be pretty similar to deandre jordan. 15 MPG/role player in years 1 and 2, starter in year 3.
   2969. JC in DC Posted: July 09, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5707196)
knox has a lot of jeff green in him.


You're a horrible person.
   2970. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 09, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5707197)
Chandler Hutchison has looked awful fwiw. No confidence in his shot either from deep or at the rim, middling athleticism (at best) and hasn't made any impact defensively.
   2971. Quaker Posted: July 09, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5707202)
Re: Kawhi trade

I’d be very happy if they could get Lowry/Anunoby/pick for Kawhi and Mills.

Some stat model I saw on Twitter had Toronto within a game of Boston in the East, so it makes some sense for them to try to go for it in ‘19. They also have FVV to take over for Kyle. I think, if healthy, the Spurs would have a reasonable chance of winning a playoff series with Lowry. Pelton also said unloading Mills is equivalent to the expected value of the #12 pick. Not sure if Lowry interfering with DJM’s development would be a dealbreaker for SAS.
   2972. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 09, 2018 at 01:01 PM (#5707208)
Chandler Hutchison has looked awful fwiw. No confidence in his shot either from deep or at the rim, middling athleticism (at best) and hasn't made any impact defensively.

At least he's young...oh wait
   2973. . . . . . . Posted: July 09, 2018 at 01:40 PM (#5707226)
Frank simply shouldn’t be such an offensive zero in year two. A lottery pick with a year of NBA experience should be one of the best players on the floor in summer league. Anything less is a big red flag.

Robinson isn’t going to be a star, at least in the near-mid term, but he’s great value for where he was picked. His summer league data is hugely informative given his absence of game experience and I’m now confident he’s a valuable lotto ticket.

Knox is a live body.
   2974. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 09, 2018 at 01:55 PM (#5707229)
Frank simply shouldn’t be such an offensive zero in year two. A lottery pick with a year of NBA experience should be one of the best players on the floor in summer league. Anything less is a big red flag.


Frank looks bad there's no way to spin it. As you noted a 2nd year lotto pick, especially a guard, should be running circles around most everyone else in SL. He can't shoot and he can't really break down a defense. On top of that he seems to play quite stiff and has a hard time translating his athleticism into production.
   2975. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 09, 2018 at 02:26 PM (#5707235)
Does anyone know why Patricia Bender stopped updating her site?
   2976. JC in DC Posted: July 09, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5707259)
I'm not sure I agree Frank should be running circles around people. He's not even 20 yet, most of the guys in the league are older than he is. I remain hopeful, despite increasing doubt.
   2977. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 09, 2018 at 04:38 PM (#5707296)
Some stat model I saw on Twitter had Toronto within a game of Boston in the East
I'm very curious how this stat model handled Hayward, then.
   2978. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 09, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5707334)
Mbah A Moute to LAC on a 1 yr deal; thought he'd stay in HOU
   2979. JJ1986 Posted: July 09, 2018 at 06:46 PM (#5707346)
What are the Rockets going to do now? Sign James Ennis? Play Tucker at the 3 and Carmelo at the 4? Start Vince Edwards?
   2980. . . . . . . Posted: July 09, 2018 at 07:33 PM (#5707355)
Most of the guys in the league won’t even make an NBA rotation. Doesn’t matter how young Frank is, it’s damming he can’t shine at this level with a full season of NBA coaching, training and experience under him. Also, he’s only 2 weeks younger, relative to his ‘’class’, than Knox. He’s not that young.
   2981. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 09, 2018 at 08:06 PM (#5707370)
French Frank’s second summer league game seemed encouraging, at least from the video I watched.
   2982. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 09, 2018 at 08:23 PM (#5707378)
I've been reading Mark Meeks' giant NBA manifesto that he gives away as a PDF. It's basic but solid stuff, it's helped me learn quite a bit about the legions of sub-star NBA players.

But, good god, did he type this thing on a phone? Did no one proofread it? Hell, I'll proofread it for free if he just sends me the original .docx files or whatever before they get laid out; I'm reading it anyway.
   2983. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 09, 2018 at 08:37 PM (#5707386)
What are the Rockets going to do now? Sign James Ennis? Play Tucker at the 3 and Carmelo at the 4? Start Vince Edwards?
HOU has been great at scrounging up role players since around 2005, so i'm sure they have some good ideas for what to do.
   2984. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 09, 2018 at 08:47 PM (#5707391)
Most of the guys in the league won’t even make an NBA rotation. Doesn’t matter how young Frank is, it’s damming he can’t shine at this level with a full season of NBA coaching, training and experience under him. Also, he’s only 2 weeks younger, relative to his ‘’class’, than Knox. He’s not that young.
i tend to think summer league is better at exposing flaws (fixible and otherwise) than highlighting strengths.

quick scoring guards and athletic big men tend to look good in summer league, but everyone else is usually lucky if they can hold their heads above water.

   2985. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 09, 2018 at 09:17 PM (#5707416)
But, good god, did he type this thing on a phone? Did no one proofread it? Hell, I'll proofread it for free if he just sends me the original .docx files or whatever before they get laid out; I'm reading it anyway.

He gives it away for free. He's also asked people to let him know any errors they find.
   2986. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 09, 2018 at 09:19 PM (#5707419)
Rumor is Houston is going to get melo after the buyout is complete. That's something, I guess, but he doesn't replace ariza and luc mab skills. I'm... skeptical.
   2987. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 09, 2018 at 09:22 PM (#5707422)
He gives it away for free. He's also asked people to let him know any errors they find.


If that's the case I will do so; it will be a long email. I like his stuff and am grateful to get it for free (and will probably toss him a few bucks, too) but if he has aspirations of one day being paid by someone to write, his flagship product has to be better technically than this. There are obvious errors on almost every page.

I'll find his email address and help, if he's willing to accept help.
   2988. PJ Martinez Posted: July 09, 2018 at 10:03 PM (#5707447)
"Source: After striking out on Zach Levine, the Sacramento Kings are preparing to put together an offer #Celtics Marcus Smart." -- A. Sherrod Blakely (Boston reporter)
   2989. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 09, 2018 at 10:39 PM (#5707468)
As long as you're not a dick about it, I'm sure he'll appreciate it.
   2990. tshipman Posted: July 09, 2018 at 10:51 PM (#5707476)
Losing LMAM and Ariza really, really hurts the Rockets.

Last year without either of those guys on the court, they gave up 1.2 PPP, compared to 1.06 overall.
   2991. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 10, 2018 at 12:03 AM (#5707516)
"Source: After striking out on Zach Levine, the Sacramento Kings are preparing to put together an offer #Celtics Marcus Smart." -- A. Sherrod Blakely (Boston reporter)


How painfully obvious can it get that the Kings have no plan?
   2992. this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: July 10, 2018 at 01:19 AM (#5707540)
How painfully obvious can it get that the Kings have no plan?
maybe they think smart can play PF.
   2993. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 10, 2018 at 08:04 AM (#5707551)
I just want to meekly point out that it's not the Warriors' fault that the Rockets new owner doesn't want to pony up cash to keep that team together. Would they really rather have Melo than LMAM? Are they really going to squeeze Capela into taking the QO? None of these things seem like Morey-like decisions. Maybe the 76ers should make a cheeky play for Morey to be their gm? If he's frustrated with the new owner's alligator arms maybe he would jump at the opportunity to run the Sixers?
   2994. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 10, 2018 at 08:24 AM (#5707556)
It's probably not a bad idea for the Kings to just get a good player and worry about fit later. Smart is versatile enough to find plenty of minutes for. No one is rushing to attach picks to dump dead salary so they may as well use that cap space to do something constructive. The Hawks might think of doing the same with Jabari Parker.
   2995. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 10, 2018 at 09:23 AM (#5707561)
The Kings are probably being saved from themselves here. Smart does seem more like one of those players that benefits from being on a good team, but I think he's a pretty solid player. Getting him rather than LaVine has them better off I think. Also impressive that a Boston reporter misspelled LaVine's name.
   2996. PJ Martinez Posted: July 10, 2018 at 09:29 AM (#5707564)
Also impressive that a Boston reporter misspelled LaVine's name.
It was on Twitter; could have been auto-correct.

I thought Smart would have been a good fit in Phoenix, next to Booker, providing some energy on defense and maybe setting a good example on that end for the young guys. But Sacramento, not so much. I figured they would go after Parker -- I wonder what the story is there.
   2997. puck Posted: July 10, 2018 at 10:06 AM (#5707580)
How much would a guy like Smart help an otherwise defense-challenged team? For example, what would it do for the Nuggets if they had a guy like him, given all the other weaknesses on their D?
   2998. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: July 10, 2018 at 10:33 AM (#5707603)
There are classes of players that I overrate. Marcus Smart would be the archetype of one, were he less singular. Tony Allen style defender who can cover multiple positions and create for others? Sure the field goal percentage isn't great, but half of those shots are threes, so... it's probably not so bad - sign me up!

Then I actually look at those percentages. 42% from two for his career, 29% from three (36% from the field overall). Unspectacular at getting to the line. Career ORtg of 100.

I honestly don't know what this guy should be worth.

   2999. TFTIO ought to Stick with Ostriches Posted: July 10, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5707605)
I honestly don't know what this guy should be worth.

It's entirely dependent on the composition of the team he'd be on, no?
   3000. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 10, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5707607)
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