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Wednesday, May 30, 2018

OT - 2018 NBA Summer Potpourri (finals, draft, free agency, Colangelo dragging)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom can be bothered to curate their own thread to avoid detracting from what this site is really about:  complaints about mayonnaise.


EDIT: image is shrunken. Mouse over to show full size. -vi

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: May 30, 2018 at 12:56 AM | 3814 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   3301. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:48 PM (#5711474)
wings: lebron.
it's not really true that he's the only wing on the team, but the best position for literally every other player on the roster was either the 4 or the 5.

forwards: marion, richard jefferson, melo
all 3 are reasonable selections for a better constructed team.


They were all wings in 2004, and in 2004's version of basketball. Just because that roster would be worse in today's game doesn't make it worse then than it already was.
   3302. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2018 at 07:17 PM (#5711516)
This is now the single most STIGGLES/STEAGLES/57i6635 post ever.
(that's the joke)
They were all wings in 2004, and in 2004's version of basketball. Just because that roster would be worse in today's game doesn't make it worse then than it already was.

nah.

2004 wasn't 1962. the changes we've seen since then aren't a reaction to any intrinsic difference in the sport, they're an optimization. by 2004/5/6, rashard lewis, andrei kirilenko and shaun marion were among the best PFs in the league, foreshadowing what we're seeing now. "smallball" has always been in the background of the NBA; the "revolution" just put it front and center.
   3303. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 17, 2018 at 07:43 PM (#5711539)
For whatever it's worth, at the end of yesterday's Lowe Post (which was basically about whether or not Chicago and Milwaukee know what they're doing), Lowe and Windhorst spent 30 seconds saying that Toronto is the favourite for Kawhi, and that it's real, as Phil and the Lakers have more or less dropped out. They speculated that they've offered DeRozan, Siakam, and a 1st.


If that's the best offer San Antonio gets then Kawhi will be sitting out the rest of his contract.
   3304. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 08:19 PM (#5711582)
nah.

2004 wasn't 1962. the changes we've seen since then aren't a reaction to any intrinsic difference in the sport, they're an optimization. by 2004/5/6, rashard lewis, andrei kirilenko and shaun marion were among the best PFs in the league, foreshadowing what we're seeing now. "smallball" has always been in the background of the NBA; the "revolution" just put it front and center.


In 2018, the average team attempted 29 3's a game and shot 36.2% on them. 2004, 14.9 at 34.7%. The Sonics led the 2004 NBA with 23.6 3pa/g. Only 2 team in 2018 attempted fewer (MIN 22.5 and NYK 23.3). Only 5 teams in 2004 shot higher than the 2018 average, only 1 team in 2018 shot worse than the 2004 average.

The 2018 average pace was 97.3; the Nuggets led 2004 at 93.3 - every single team in 2018 played faster than that. The average team in 2004 shot .228 FT/FGA, in 2018 it was .193; only 2 teams in 2018 shot at a higher rate and the 2004 average and no one in 2004 shot as low as the 2018 average.

Tomato, tomato, but I absolutely call that a big change and not just optimization.

As for the guys you wouldn't call wings - Marion is still listed as a SF in 2004 (looks like he was classified as a PF in 2005, but I'm not sure where to find lineup breakdowns for that season to see his split), with Amare at PF (he made the switch to C also the next year). Jake Voskul made 43 starts for PHX that year, Jahidi White 17 and Scott Williams 10. D'Antoni took over the team after the season started, so I think it's fair to point to that as the beginning of the shift to the modern NBA, but the Suns were still garbage and really didn't blow up until the next year (so after the Olympics). The 2005 Suns were the beginning of the end of the old NBA.

Richard Jefferson was the starting SF for the 2004 Nets, who started Kenyon Martin (Rodney Rogers when Martin was out) and Jason Collins (78 GS) in the frontcourt. The Nuggets started Nene and Marcus Camby in their frontcourt.

So, nah, to you. You are absolutely evaluating the roster through a 2018 lens.
   3305. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2018 at 11:33 PM (#5711726)
So, nah, to you. You are absolutely evaluating the roster through a 2018 lens.
well, yeah. hindsight is a lot less interesting when you pretend you don't have it.

this is the 2004 roster again (median age 22):
G: iverson, marbury, wade
W: lebron, jefferson, marion, melo
B: duncan, okafor, boozer, odom, amar'e

this is 2000 (median age 27):
G: kidd, payton, tim hardaway
W: allen, allen houston, steve smith, vince carter
B: mourning, garnett, baker, abdur-rahim, mcdyess

1996 (median age 30):
G: stockton, payton, penny
W: hill, miller, pippen, mitch richmond
B: robinson, olajuwon, shaq, barkley, malone

2008 (median age 24):
G: paul, deron, kidd
W: wade, kobe, melo, prince, lebron, redd
B: dwight, bosh, boozer

just in terms of roster construction, 2004 was clearly an outlier. there were no shooters, there was noone to run the offense, half the roster was younger than everyone from 1996 and 2000 (and only dwight was younger than 23 in 2008). they didn't even have any bigs who could physically dominate smaller opponents in the post.

sure, a lot of inner circle hall of famers turned USA basketball down in 2004, but this is still tUSfnA. we don't need to send an incoherent roster full of children to the olympics. a coherent group of versatile professionals, each coming off career best/ish season, would have been more than good enough:

G: bibby (25), a.miller (27), terry (26)
W: battier (25), posey (27), maggette (24), finlay (30), brent barry (32)
B: b.miller (27), camby (29), kenyon martin (26), marshall (20)

or better yet, splice that roster with the actual roster:
G: bibby, a.miller, iverson
W: lebron, marion, battier, posey, brent barry
B: duncan, b.miller, odom, camby

that team has better playmaking, better shooting and better defense than the actual 2004 team, plus everyone besides lebron and brent barry is between 24 and 29 years old.
   3306. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: July 18, 2018 at 06:24 AM (#5711794)
   3307. PJ Martinez Posted: July 18, 2018 at 06:33 AM (#5711799)
According to Woj and Chris Haynes, it is nearly done.
The Toronto Raptors are finalizing a deal to acquire San Antonio Spurs star Kawhi Leonard in a trade package that includes All-Star DeMar DeRozan, league sources told ESPN.

An agreement in principle could be reached as soon as Wednesday, league sources said.

Leonard and DeRozan are both aware that an agreement could be imminent, and neither is expressing enthusiasm for the deal, league sources said.
   3308. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: July 18, 2018 at 06:57 AM (#5711803)
I will miss DeRozan, because he seems like a really righteous dude and is very easy to root for as a person, but depending on the rest of the package, the upgrade for the Barneys will be considerable.
   3309. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 07:12 AM (#5711807)
Leonard and DeRozan are both aware that an agreement could be imminent, and neither is expressing enthusiasm for the deal, league sources said.

Teams shouldn't worry about this. I actually think those are good landing spots for both players and I wouldn't be surprised if both end up happy where they are. This is a hell of a trade by Toronto. On the Spurs side, they've added a lot of talent to a team that won 47 games last year. In a really tough West I think they've solidified themselves as a playoff team and that's even before we find out what's going south besides DeRozan.
   3310. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 18, 2018 at 07:23 AM (#5711811)
It would surprise me if the Spurs valued DeRozan highly, but I guess we’ll see.

The other thing I don’t quite get is: if Kawhi refuses to play one year for the Spurs without the security of a max extension, why does he want to play one year for the Raptors without it? Probably Toronto is willing to give him a max extension where San Antonio wasn’t, but supposedly Kawhi doesn’t want to sign one with Toronto. On the surface it doesn’t seem to make sense that he’d rather play one year for the Raptors than the Spurs before hitting free agency, unless this is entirely about Kawhi’s having come to really hate Popovich. I don’t pay close attention to news and none at all to Twitter; I must have missed something here.
   3311. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 07:28 AM (#5711812)
It would surprise me if the Spurs valued DeRozan highly, but I guess we’ll see.

Aldridge and Gay didn't seem like very Spursy players, either. DeRozan gets buckets and Pop may think he can get more out of him defensively which, to be fair, Pop often seems to be able to do.
   3312. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 07:37 AM (#5711814)
   3313. JJ1986 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 07:52 AM (#5711818)
The idea that Kawhi Leonard is going to sit out what amounts to a second straight season heading into free agency is absurd. If he's not playing, people are going to think his career is over due to injury.
   3314. JC in DC Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:08 AM (#5711824)
I'm betting against Kawhi ever being the player he was before, and not because of injury as much as system and coaching. I ask from ignorance: who left the Spurs and got better?
   3315. sardonic Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:22 AM (#5711827)
I wonder how much of the thinking on the Spurs side was driven by Pop's commitment to Aldridge that he'd coach the rest of his Spurs contract, and a desire to not bottom out during the twilight of Pop's career. DeRozan, Siakim and a first makes a lot more sense in that context.
   3316. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:25 AM (#5711829)
The best thing about this trade is the Raptors finally have their LeBron stopper.

who left the Spurs and got better?

Have the Spurs lost many starters in their prime in the Pop era? The role players haven't done as well but I can't come up with an example that matches up to Kawhi, really. George Hill did fine after leaving the Spurs. A long-winded way of saying I don't really have an answer. I'd still bet on a healthy Kawhi being really good. I concede that's a big qualifier at this point.
   3317. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:27 AM (#5711830)
I wonder how much of the thinking on the Spurs side was driven by Pop's commitment to Aldridge that he'd coach the rest of his Spurs contract, and a desire to not bottom out during the twilight of Pop's career. DeRozan, Siakim and a first makes a lot more sense in that context.

Makes sense. Danny Green going back to the Raptors for salary matching?
   3318. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:29 AM (#5711831)
I love the idea that sending Kawhi to Toronto is a punishment. We're sending you to one of the largest media markets and most cosmopolitan cities in North America. Suck it!
   3319. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:44 AM (#5711833)
Dewayne Dedmon last year, but that's not what you mean.
   3320. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:46 AM (#5711834)
I love the idea that sending Kawhi to Toronto is a punishment. We're sending you to one of the largest media markets and most cosmopolitan cities in North America. Suck it!

He has a better chance of getting back to the Finals, too.
   3321. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:01 AM (#5711837)
Kawhi and Danny Green for DeRozan, Poeltl and a protected 2019 first.

IF Kawhi is at all healthy, that is an awesome trade for the Raptors. Now, does Kawhi go to Team USA camp?
   3322. Paul d mobile Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:01 AM (#5711838)
Woj says it's Kawhi and Danny Green for DeRozan, Poetl, and a protected 2019 first round pick.
   3323. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:02 AM (#5711839)
In my mind, the Lakers will be sufficiently desperate enough next year to give Kawhi the four-year max even if he refuses to play this season. I don't really have any idea what Kawhi plans to do, but I can't picture the Lakers not needing him in twelve months so I guess that gives him some leverage. I know this sounds nuts, but this whole situation sort of is nuts.
   3324. Paul d mobile Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:03 AM (#5711840)
Is a healthy Leonard (I know), the best player in the East?
   3325. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:05 AM (#5711841)
Is a healthy Leonard (I know), the best player in the East?

2017 Kawhi would be, for sure. Despite my take above, it's really impossible to judge this trade until we see Kawhi on a basketball court. Raptors not having to include Siakam or Anunoby is a hell of a thing, though.
   3326. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:06 AM (#5711842)
They need to put Raptors-Spurs on Christmas before the Lakers-Warriors game. I doubt they will, but they should!
   3327. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:09 AM (#5711843)
HOLY WOW
   3328. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5711845)
I mean, I love love love Poetl, but that's getting Leonard on the serious cheap.
   3329. PJ Martinez Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5711846)
"Source: Toronto's first-round pick to San Antonio is protected 1-20. After one year, it becomes two second-round picks." -- Woj

If Kawhi is healthy, that is an incredible deal for Toronto.
   3330. JJ1986 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5711847)
The Spurs biggest target in all of their moves recently seems to be knowing how much salary they'll have on the books 2-3 years from now.
   3331. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:14 AM (#5711848)
That is some pick protection. Damn. I hope it gets leaked what other teams were offering.

Demar DeRozan seems pretty bummed about all this, by the way. I'll keep waiting for the day when a team gets burned as a hard as a player for "disloyalty".
   3332. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:26 AM (#5711851)
The protection is meaningless, Toronto is obviously going to have a top 10 record.

No brainer for Toronto. Even if Kawhi leaves they're better positioned to reset around the younger guys than they were previously.
   3333. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:28 AM (#5711853)
For the Spurs, I don't like either guy* but there's no question in my mind Pop will make DeRozan/Aldridge work well. Despite this:
Hardwood Paroxysm @HPbasketball
DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge combined shot more mid-range shots than six teams did as a whole per game last year.

It might not be pretty, but I'm sure they'll make it work.

*As a player. But echoing TFTIO DeRozan seems like a really solid guy.
   3334. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:51 AM (#5711865)
Last thought before maybe attempting to work: this is a bummer for my team's path to the Finals, but good for the league, I think, to get another star in the East (assuming Kawhi is healthy).
   3335. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:52 AM (#5711867)
The most important question today? Who manages to drop the first emergency podcast. Normally I'd go Dunc'd On but they are a West Coast outfit. I guess I'll go Hoop Collective.
   3336. PJ Martinez Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:01 AM (#5711868)
Totally speculative thought: the pretty underwhelming return suggests there continue to be serious questions about Kawhi's health (or his attitude, I suppose, but I highly doubt he will simply refuse to play -- that would be too costly, both this year and probably going forward).
   3337. spivey Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5711869)
No brainer for Toronto. I would have liked Siakam but bucket-getters was by far the Spurs biggest need and the hardest thing for them to develop. I think the Spurs will be good but they have no path to the Finals or even conference Finals. I’m not sure this is better than an Ingram focused Lakers deal but it’ll make them better next year which seems to matter to the Spurs.
   3338. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:05 AM (#5711872)
I think my initial knee-jerk reaction is that this a decent trade for both teams (for the Spurs, only because they had to make the trade). I think it raises Toronto's ceiling - if Kawhi is healthy, they have a better chance of getting to the Finals. I think it raises SA's floor - they're still not really a threat to GS.

The risk for Toronto is obvious - Kawhi isn't healthy and he leaves in FA. But I also think they have reason to hope they can convince him to stay, though I'd still guess that's a long shot (after PG I won't say it can't happen).
   3339. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:07 AM (#5711873)
It's obviously not good if Kawhi bails after one year (I am 100% convinced that he'll play this season), but it's not like the trade cripples Toronto -- they're still pretty deep, and have a lot of attractive assets if they need to rebuild. The upside is tremendous, however.
   3340. spivey Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5711874)
I’m really sad to see Danny Green go. One of the great 3&D players of his generation. He was so key to the Spurs matching up with the Heat and Warriors. I’ll miss him a lot and he’s a good get for Toronto. He probably has only like one last solid year in him.
   3341. spivey Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:15 AM (#5711879)
I think it’s worth it for Toronto even if Kawhi bails. They significantly increase the chance of a Finals and even title. And they really did need to shake up the DDR/Lowry core after the latest sweep
   3342. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5711882)
I've never liked DeRozan's game but he has consistently outperformed my expectations for him and seems like a really solid dude. I don't want him on my team but I'm glad he's in the league and glad he's doing well.
   3343. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5711885)
   3344. maccoach57 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5711891)
The Gasols are very thoughtful/cosmopolitan/world citizens/help-others types. I never heard about Pau saving anybody's life when he was playing here, but there would be periodic items about him going to refugee camps, giving out medical supplies, visiting hospitals (and not just for an hour or two) etc.

Like I said a couple of days ago, if the Lakers couldn't get him, I wanted to see Leonard in Toronto.

   3345. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5711895)
I've said it before, but there's a lot of good folk in the NBA these days.
   3346. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5711897)
Love those two. I'm hoping that Pau eventually pursues his (former?) dream of becoming a surgeon.

I love Leonard in Toronto, provided that he commits to trying.
   3347. maccoach57 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 10:49 AM (#5711899)
3341--Yes, this is absolutely the right move for Toronto. As to San Antonio, I think that Popovich has actually not gotten enough credit for his work last year, since SA was not a contender. He shifted the focus on O to Aldridge, getting a 25.0 PER out of him, and kept the team 3rd in DRTG without Leonard. Popovich is maybe the best example of my favorite meme about what coaches/managers are supposed to do: put players in position to succeed. So, yeah, DeRozan and Aldridge are not "sabermetric" players, but they are good players, and Popovich will get the most out of what they can do. But...winning the NBA title is still mostly about talent, not coaching, and for the first time in nearly 30 years, (excluding Robinson's injury year and maybe Leonard's first couple of years), San Antonio does not have a Top-10 player in the lineup.

As an aside, Popovich has talked a couple of times about understanding the math/need for the 3 in today's game, but has also said that he does not like the whole thing that much.
   3348. JC in DC Posted: July 18, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5711916)
for the first time in nearly 30 years, (excluding Robinson's injury year and maybe Leonard's first couple of years), San Antonio does not have a Top-10 player in the lineup.


For the second time, right? Last year happened.
   3349. JuanGone..except1game Posted: July 18, 2018 at 11:27 AM (#5711919)
Demar DeRozan seems pretty bummed about all this, by the way. I'll keep waiting for the day when a team gets burned as a hard as a player for "disloyalty".

I really thought that the Celtics would for IT, but that fizzled out after awhile. I don't think that you are going to find a better case than that, so unfortunately sports mgmt. can sleep well knowing that the public almost will always side with them over the players.
   3350. PJ Martinez Posted: July 18, 2018 at 12:01 PM (#5711947)
   3351. PJ Martinez Posted: July 18, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5711948)
"Celtics GM Danny Ainge and Happy Walters, the agent for restricted free agent guard Marcus Smart, are now seriously engaged in contract talks, league sources tell ESPN. Potential deal range is in the four-year, $46M-$50M range, sources tell ESPN. Talks ongoing." -- Woj
   3352. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 18, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5711951)
K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop 16s16 seconds ago

Bulls exec VP John Paxson: "This is Jabari's day. We view this as a very important signing. We feel this signing fits perfectly into the direction we chose, a young, talented player with great versatility."


K.C. Johnson @KCJHoop 1m1 minute ago

GM Gar Forman: "We have followed Jabari closely throughout his career."


Close enough to know about his injury history?

Mike McGraw @McGrawDHBulls 1m1 minute ago

Hoiberg: "We should be able to take a step forward on defense." #Bulls



hahahahaha
   3353. aberg Posted: July 18, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5711980)
Hoiberg: "We should be able to take a step forward on defense." #Bulls


I think he means lunging forward wildly before the ballhandler blows by the defender.

The Gasols are very thoughtful/cosmopolitan/world citizens/help-others types. I never heard about Pau saving anybody's life when he was playing here, but there would be periodic items about him going to refugee camps, giving out medical supplies, visiting hospitals (and not just for an hour or two) etc.


Such a Lakers homer... :)

On Kawhi:

-Obviously, this direction is not the one the Spurs would have chosen for their post-Duncan dynasty to go. Things have changed drastically since Zaza slid under Kawhi's foot, and whether they could have approached the situation differently or not, they deserve a little credit for recognizing where they were this summer and acting decisively. I agree that Derozan + Leonard should at least keep them relevant in a tough conference, even if they have basically no chance of winning it.

-To me, the standards are different in Toronto. It's a team that has won very little and a Finals appearance would mean so much more to them than it would to the Spurs. They're also in a conference where one superstar player can have a much bigger impact on your odds of making the Finals. That's why I agree with the comments above that it's a worthwhile gamble, even if he's a risk to leave or play at 70% of what he used to be.

-As others have noted, the risk of Kawhi leaving is mitigated by the fact that paying Derozan $30m/yr doesn't really provide surplus value anyway, so Kawhi leaving for nothing might not be much worse than Derozan staying on that contract.

-It's kind of funny that two guys who were long rumored to pine for LA (and that perception has impacted both of them in different ways through their careers) were traded for each other, and LA had nothing to do with it (unless you argue that Toronto was able to make the trade because the perception that Kawhi will go to LA as a FA next year depressed his value).

-Some of the fringe pieces to the trade are very interesting. I'm curious whether the Spurs chose Poeltl over OG or Siakam or if those guys weren't available. It's also somewhat interesting that the Spurs weren't able to get Toronto to take Mills.

-I'm curious about what the trade means for Toronto's crunch time lineups. Will they use both Van Vleet and OG in a small lineup with Kawhi? That's a pretty good squad, and Ibaka/JV still gives them some flexibility to go a little bigger/smaller as needed.
   3354. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 12:48 PM (#5711981)
"Celtics GM Danny Ainge and Happy Walters, the agent for restricted free agent guard Marcus Smart, are now seriously engaged in contract talks, league sources tell ESPN. Potential deal range is in the four-year, $46M-$50M range, sources tell ESPN. Talks ongoing." -- Woj

So I wonder when the Rozier trade happens?
   3355. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:03 PM (#5711991)
@hoopscritic
Strange deal. Masai ushering in a rebuild. They have a zero percent chance of keeping Kawhi and next year, Lowry, Ibaka, Valanciunas will all be expiring contracts. This is a “one final run” deal for the Raptors...
@KyleNeubeck
An offense built around LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Dejounte Murray is Doug Collins fan fiction
@jonjohnsonwip
This has been a bad offseason for Sixers. All pressure falls on development of Embiid, Simmons, & the hope Fultz finds himself.
   3356. aberg Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5711994)
"Celtics GM Danny Ainge and Happy Walters, the agent for restricted free agent guard Marcus Smart, are now seriously engaged in contract talks, league sources tell ESPN. Potential deal range is in the four-year, $46M-$50M range, sources tell ESPN. Talks ongoing." -- Woj


As a fan of Smart, I still think this deal is way too much for him. I could see that AAV on a 2 year deal or 4/36. He's an RFA with no leverage, so I wouldn't give him a deal that seems basically untradeable.

This has been a bad offseason for Sixers. All pressure falls on development of Embiid, Simmons, & the hope Fultz finds himself.


True, lots of little things have gone against them. Ilyasova and Belinelli got poached quickly. Their replacement backed out of his deal. Whiffed on Kawhi. It's almost like the Bryan Colangelo fiasco is actually having an impact on their desirability as a destination.
   3357. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5712011)
It's almost like the Bryan Colangelo fiasco is actually having an impact on their desirability as a destination.

It might just point to the need of actually employing a GM.
   3358. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5712012)
GM Gar Forman: "We have followed Jabari closely throughout his career."


aka "as a Chicago guy, and with our fanbase's often irrational obsession with Chicago guys, we always thought he'd sell some tickets".

As for the Derozen trade. I don't know if it makes any sense for either club. Strange deal.
   3359. JJ1986 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5712018)
I don't know if Mitch Lawrence is a good source, but he tweeted that the Hawks and Thunder are discussing a Melo for Dennis Schroder deal. I have no idea why OKC would do that.
   3360. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5712020)
I don't think it made much difference that Philly didn't have a gm. I think you can make a case Colangelo would have ponied up for Kawhi to relive his father's glorious Barkley trade but, other than that, I think they were always going to be shut out on the big stars this summer. LeBron seems like he decided a long time ago and George didn't take meetings. The Bjelica one is weird, though. As for Ilyasova and Belinelli, I think they were wise to sit out at those prices. They got those two off the buy out pile last year so no reason not to wait until the spring to see if you can do it again.
   3361. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5712021)
I don't know if Mitch Lawrence is a good source, but he tweeted that the Hawks and Thunder are discussing a Melo for Dennis Schroder deal. I have no idea why OKC would do that.


Does it work as a salary dump?
   3362. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5712022)
I don't know if Mitch Lawrence is a good source, but he tweeted that the Hawks and Thunder are discussing a Melo for Dennis Schroder deal. I have no idea why OKC would do that.

Why would Melo waive his NTC for that?
   3363. JJ1986 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5712025)
Does it work as a salary dump?
They could dump a lot more salary just by stretching Anthony.
   3364. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 01:46 PM (#5712031)
Ilyasova and Belinelli got poached quickly
the sixers should not have been willing to match those contracts. maybe belinelli.
Their replacement backed out of his deal
saric, covington, chandler and simmons can all play the 4, so the sixers should be fine without bjelica. it's also possible the sixers couldn't clear a roster spot for him.
Whiffed on Kawhi
apparently, SAS wanted a veteran scorer who they could plug in to replace kawhi, which was one of the few things the sixers couldn't offer.
It's almost like the Bryan Colangelo fiasco is actually having an impact on their desirability as a destination.
maybe. but once that came out, keeping him (or his father) on the payroll would have meant going to war against their own fanbase, and maybe against their own best player, too.

what happened this summer may have been a result of jerry colangelo going full harvey weinstein against the sixers, but whether or not he did, i think the more likely explanation is a lot simpler:
the sixers put all their eggs in the lebron basket, then shifted into scramble mode/plan B when he signed with LAL. they immediately resigned redick and traded for chandler, then kicked the tires on a handful of bigs before settling for bjelica and amir johnson.
It might just point to the need of actually employing a GM.

at the very least, the sixers didn't do anything that might hurt them long term.

i would have handled a few things differently at the draft (taking porter and bonga (or musa) instead of bridges and shamet) and in free agency (offered long term deals to tyreke, kyle anderson and nerlens noel, instead of one year deals to redick, chandler and bjelica/amir), but what they actually did could turn out to be a hell of a lot better depending on: signing a star into cap room next summer, zhaire smith's development and where the 2021 MIA pick winds up landing.
   3365. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5712044)
I'm still just really curious what the Lakers are going to do because it seems bonkers to basically fast forward through a year of LeBron.
   3366. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 02:07 PM (#5712045)
at the very least, the sixers didn't do anything that might hurt them long term.

i would have handled a few things differently at the draft (taking porter and bonga (or musa) instead of bridges and shamet) and in free agency (offered long term deals to tyreke, kyle anderson and nerlens noel, instead of one year deals to redick, chandler and bjelica/amir), but what they actually did could turn out to be a hell of a lot better depending on: signing a star into cap room next summer, zhaire smith's development and where the 2021 MIA pick winds up landing.

Their window is open now, and they have so far done next to nothing to improve the team (with the caveat that there's obviously still time).
   3367. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 18, 2018 at 02:19 PM (#5712052)
It's a good deal for Toronto. The East looks wide open, grab that ring. (Also, if they have success, Kawhi is more likely to stay.) If Leonard leaves, this clears up some salary while keeping a lot of good, young talent on board.

For SA... it helps them stay competitive in the short term. I don't know what their windows are for what they want to do. I don't like the trade for them, but would need to know more about their motivations.

---

Carmelo would be immediately bought out by Atlanta - he's down with that.
   3368. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 02:28 PM (#5712061)
Poeltl thriving for the Spurs is the easiest thing in the world to imagine.
   3369. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 02:38 PM (#5712071)
Their window is open now, and they have so far done next to nothing to improve the team (with the caveat that there's obviously still time).

that annoys me too, but making a mistake is a lot worse than treading water right now.

next summer will be the last time the sixers have max cap space in the embiid/simmons era. if they plan to take one more run at signing a high level free agent, that's more than defensible.


personally, i'd have planned around trading for a star (or two) because it's a lot less risky than trying to sign one. if they had been able to follow the outline i posted in [3364], the worst case for them would be this:
G: simmons, fultz, tyreke, mcconnell, bayless
W: covington, k.anderson, saric, j.anderson, porter, korkmaz, TLC
B: embiid, noel, holmes, bolden

they'd be capped out, but they'd have a deep, versatile and coherent roster, a few guys with huge upside, a bunch of contracts that have surplus value, and more than enough depth to absorb a 3 or 4 for 1 trade when it's available.
   3370. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 02:47 PM (#5712078)
The winner is...Dunc'd On!
   3371. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 18, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5712085)
Poeltl thriving for the Spurs is the easiest thing in the world to imagine.


followed a bit thanks to fantasy and yea I can see it. He could be a rich man's Asik type.
   3372. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5712090)
   3373. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5712099)
The East looks wide open
Does it? I really don't think so.
   3374. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5712100)
Catching up...

Marc Gasol is awesome.

I love the trade for the Raptors. I am rooting for DeRozan to be great, and if the Raptors really told them they're not going to deal him this is dirty. But Raptors have been better with DeRozan on the bench every year but 11-12, and he's been much worse in the playoffs. Despite that I don't think he's a bad/below average player, but he's not worth his contract.

If Kawhi is healthy and close to his old level, Raptors have a great chance to make the Finals. Even if Kawhi leaves as a free agent, the Raptors didn't lose any great long-term assets and will be better positioned for a rebuild. Poetl is fine, but finding an averageish center is the easiest thing to find in the NBA today.

For DeRozan, with his size and athleticism I don't think he should be as bad defensively as he has been. Maybe under Pop he will improve significantly there. I don't expect it to happen but there's also no other place better for him improving his game.
   3375. Booey Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:14 PM (#5712101)
I'll keep waiting for the day when a team gets burned as a hard as a player for "disloyalty".


It all depends on who you ask. NBA players sounding off on Twitter are pretty critical of the Raps. Fans generally side with the teams; players (understandably) generally side with other players. Seems pretty typical.

   3376. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5712103)
Poeltl thriving for the Spurs is the easiest thing in the world to imagine.


I am not sure who I'd bet on between the Raptors young guys, but nice job cashing in on some of that depth.

Watching "The Jump" right now, they are projecting Toronto's starting lineup: Lowry / Green / Leonard / Ibaka / Jonas

presumably making the bench: Van Vleet / Wright / Powell / Anunoby / Siakam

I think I like that better than Philly.
   3377. maccoach57 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:24 PM (#5712111)
For the second time, right?


Yeah, but nobody was seeing it that way going in. This is SA not being a top-tier from the opening of camp, and it is SA trading a Top-10 guy in part because of communication/culture issues. That is new, and unpleasant, ground for them But they will have a pretty good team.

I'm still just really curious what the Lakers are going to do because it seems bonkers to basically fast forward through a year of LeBron.


1. I think it is more LeBron fastforwarding through a year of LeBron than the Lakers doing it. It is possible that he committed off-grid thinking George was coming here, but I doubt it.
2. I simply underestimated James's desire to be in involved in show biz/live here and underestimated his desire to try to take out Golden State this year.
3. I could see them moving 2 of Ball/Kuzma/Ingram during the year.
   3378. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:26 PM (#5712112)
Delightful story on Deadspin.

That is indeed delightful.
   3379. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:29 PM (#5712113)
Fun fact: Steph Curry the last man standing as far as staying with the team that drafted him. That's some kind of irony considering how hard he tried not to get drafted by GS.

Can't wait for that group shot of Pop, Demar and Kawhi and Team USA next week. (No Steph or LeBron meaning neither of them is likely to play in the World Cup or the Olympics. KD and Klay will be there, though.)
   3380. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:31 PM (#5712115)
That is indeed delightful.

Her Warriors takes are turrible, Ernie.

My grandma was a big A's fan but she never had takes about it. If they won it was good, if they lost it was bad. She liked Tony LaRussa. That's about it. I feel like I missed out now and I should have demanded more takes.
   3381. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:42 PM (#5712120)
Does it? I really don't think so.

LeBron is gone, which is the main point. But I don't see any reason to think one of Boston, Toronto, or Philly is a clear favorite to win the conference over the other 2. That's the order I'd rank them today assuming perfect health for all 3, and really health is the biggest risk for all 3.

I don't feel strongly on Boston over Toronto - though I do see Philly as 3rd of the 3 for now - but I do think they have more non-health related questions than Boston (namely, possible chemistry and a brand new head coach).
   3382. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5712122)
here's a fun one:
Adrian Wojnarowski ?@WojYahooNBA 19s
Golden State has fired coach Mark Jackson, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.
Warriors eyeing Hoilberg or Kerr
Have also been hearing Stan Van Gundy's name mentioned a lot...which as a Warriors fan I would love to see.
Isn't Phil interested in Kerr?

A bidding war? I didn't know Kerr was such a hot coaching property.
Phil is. I'd be worried if I were Phil. Kerr lives in California, the Warriors are light years better, and the former NBA player helping run the Warriors has a proven track and stays out of the public light.
Jackson seems like a decent enough coach as they go, certainly I don't think you fire him to hire Kerr or SVG...
I posted part of this last week, from a Lowe article:
Jackson made a show of firing Scalabrine in front of players and other coaches, but he had no real grounds
...Jackson has asked that Jerry West, a high-level adviser in Golden State, not attend most practices and team activities, sources say.

The tension with Erman got weird. Midseason, the team moved Erman’s parking spot to a less convenient place, likely at the behest of Jackson or one of Jackson’s allies on the staff, per multiple sources familiar with the matter. They began changing his duties in strange ways.

The atmosphere has bordered on poisonous
It's not like Jackson flopped as a coach, he did fairly well by new coach standards, hell of a lot better than Vinny Del Negro for example
it sounds like Jackson completely failed at the managing part of the job - both in dealing with his bosses and his employees. The fact that he didn't lose his players speaks to his personality and leadership style - in fact, fighting with everyone was probably a rallying point that he used. Seems fireable enough to me, and that doesn't even take into account the legitimate complaints that can be raised about his coaching (lack of offensive sets/extreme iso, odd substitution patterns, etc).
I also find it telling that the Inside the NBA crew were pretty harsh in their criticism of the move. Those guys do have influence amongst the players
put me very much in the "I am not sure this is a good idea" camp.
One thing to consider is Curry's head coach experience is extremely limited and bad to boot - he's played for a coach who didn't care (Nellie in his final year), a retread (Keith Smart), and now Jackson. Among those three Jackson is definitely the tallest midget. Curry hasn't really had a "complete" coach yet who is good with the Xs and Os and can motivate at the same time. If the Warriors can get a guy like that hopefully he/the players will come around.
I am not sure Curry benefits from structure; I think weak coaching has probably been a bonus for his development. Other coaches might have throttled the whole end-a-fastbreak-with-a-26-foot-pullup-three thing. As I've said many times, as presently constructed, I think Jackson has gotten basically everything possible from this Warriors team and perhaps more.
This is just awesome, oral history of the 2002 Kings/Lakers series.

One of my favorites asides ever:
Horry spent about half his interview arguing that most of this oral history’s sequences occurred in different years. Horry literally has too many championships to differentiate them all.
So, uh, what has Steve Kerr done that makes him everyone's wonderboy? As a Warriors fan, I'll take Van Gundy or even Hoiberg instead. Hoiberg especially seems like a basketball savant to me and, if the Warriors are adamant about giving a guy his first NBA shot, I'd much rather him than Kerr.
Kerr is by most accounts exceptionally articulate and personable, seems to be intelligent, and he has been associated with a lot of great teams. Obviously, we don't know what kind of coach he would make, but I can see why teams would think about him.
   3383. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:51 PM (#5712126)
rumor!
so.... bjelica is reportedly negotiating a multi-year deal with the kings. they do not play in europe.

---

love that lady from the deadspin link; thanks!
   3384. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5712129)
so.... bjelica is reportedly negotiating a multi-year deal with the kings. they do not play in europe.

Huge Lady Bird fan, I'm told (I DON'T CARE IF I ALREADY USED THIS JOKE THIS SUMMER, TRY TO STOP ME!).
   3385. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5712130)
They would maybe win a few more games if they did.
   3386. aberg Posted: July 18, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5712135)
Fun fact: Steph Curry the last man standing as far as staying with the team that drafted him. That's some kind of irony considering how hard he tried not to get drafted by GS.


Among which group? Russ was drafted a year earlier and hasn't left OKC.

Watching "The Jump" right now, they are projecting Toronto's starting lineup: Lowry / Green / Leonard / Ibaka / Jonas

presumably making the bench: Van Vleet / Wright / Powell / Anunoby / Siakam


Plus CJ Miles, right?

so.... bjelica is reportedly negotiating a multi-year deal with the kings. they do not play in europe.


He probably looked at the roster and assumed it couldn't be an NBA team.
   3387. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 04:06 PM (#5712138)
I don't feel strongly on Boston over Toronto

I thought people were a bit too quick to put Boston over Toronto before this move, and now I'm much less sure Boston is the better team. Boston might be better overall but Toronto has been very good head to head over the last couple of years (though some of that was DeRozan torching them a couple times) and now they have Kawhi.
   3388. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 04:14 PM (#5712145)
I don't see any reason to think one of Boston, Toronto, or Philly is a clear favorite to win the conference over the other 2. That's the order I'd rank them today assuming perfect health for all 3, and really health is the biggest risk for all 3.

i think it's a mistake to sleep on WAS. they've averaged 45 wins over the last 5 years, they won 49 games two years ago and they took TOR to 7 games in the first round last year. their returning core (wall, beal, porter, oubre, morris, satoransky) are now experienced and in their prime, they upgraded at center by going from gortat to dwight, and they have a handful of interesting/useful reserves in jeff green, austin rivers, jodie meeks, ian mahinmi and troy brown.

if dwight can still play defense and if he buys into a spread pnr offense that lets wall attack the rim and kick to beal (38% from 3), porter (44%), satoransky (47%), rivers (38%), etc, they can win 55+ games pretty easily.


oh, and i also agree that the sixers are third in line for now. they didn't upgrade defensively, their shooting got a lot worse (unless korkmaz or shamet stick in the rotation), they still don't have anyone (besides fultz) who can score in isolation from the perimeter. even if they're healthy and even if some players develop, i think there's a good chance they slip to 45-ish wins this year.
   3389. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 04:15 PM (#5712146)
He probably looked at the roster and assumed it couldn't be an NBA team.
‏@IAmDPick
I'm told Nemanja Bjelica felt devalued at $4.4M with PHI. Fenerbahce decided not to overload roster, CSKA have no interest at this time, SAC Kings can throw him more cash than his Sixers deal. This is a financial decision.
   3390. jmurph Posted: July 18, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5712149)
i think it's a mistake to sleep on WAS. they've averaged 45 wins over the last 5 years, they won 49 games two years ago and they took TOR to 7 games in the first round last year. their returning core (wall, beal, porter, oubre, morris, satoransky) are now experienced and in their prime, they upgraded at center by going from gortat to dwight, and they have a handful of interesting/useful reserves in jeff green, austin rivers, jodie meeks, ian mahinmi and troy brown.

if dwight can still play defense and if he buys into a spread pnr offense that lets wall attack the rim and kick to beal (38% from 3), porter (44%), satoransky (47%), rivers (38%), etc, they can win 55+ games pretty easily.

I buy this on paper, but in practice they're all going to hate Dwight before the preseason ends and Wall is going to miss 30 games and spend the rest of the year complaining that no one likes him.
   3391. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 18, 2018 at 04:31 PM (#5712151)
if dwight can still play defense and if he buys into a spread pnr offense that lets wall attack the rim and kick to beal (38% from 3), porter (44%), satoransky (47%), rivers (38%), etc, they can win 55+ games pretty easily.

Serious or not, they are clearly at least a tier below TOR, BOS, and PHI.
   3392. Quaker Posted: July 18, 2018 at 04:41 PM (#5712157)
I think Toronto's best lineup might wind up being Lowry/Delon or FVV/Green/Leonard/Ibaka
   3393. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: July 18, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5712163)
Two new Players Tribune pieces going up soon.

DeMar DeRozan: Dear Toronto, I love you, thank you for everything I'll never forget you I put the city on my back forever. I promise to always hold you in my heart.

Kawhi Leonard: Dear San Antonio, I used to live there.

— az (@the_Zubes) July 18, 2018

I laughed.
   3394. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 04:53 PM (#5712166)
oh, and i also agree that the sixers are third in line for now. they didn't upgrade defensively, their shooting got a lot worse (unless korkmaz or shamet stick in the rotation), they still don't have anyone (besides fultz) who can score in isolation from the perimeter. even if they're healthy and even if some players develop, i think there's a good chance they slip to 45-ish wins this year.

otoh:
the sixers are pretty much the same team as last year. they lost ilyasova and bellinelli, but they added wilson chandler, zhaire smith, landry shamet, jonah bolden, they're getting a full year from fultz, and they probably won't start the season with a 14-18 record again.

if you compare their performance in those first 32 games, after the acquisitions of belineli/ilyasova, and in the time between:

first 32: 14-18 (prorates to 36 wins over 82 games), 106 ORTG/107 DRTG (would rank 25th/11th in 2018)
next 16: 10-6 (51 wins), 112/106 (7th/9th)
last 34: 28-6 (68 wins), 113/104 (5th/1st)

adding ilyasova/bellineli poured gas on the fire, but i think it's been a bit lost that the fire had started to pick up before they got here.
   3395. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 18, 2018 at 06:38 PM (#5712228)
Boogie is going to have a Showtime special. Get ready for many f bombs!
   3396. PJ Martinez Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:03 PM (#5712253)
Re: 3394, didn't Philly's schedule have something to do with that breakdown as well? As I recall, it got really easy toward the end.
   3397. PJ Martinez Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:05 PM (#5712255)
F Michael Porter Jr., who slid to Denver at No. 14 in NBA Draft due to ongoing back issues, had another surgery last week. His camp believes latest procedure = breakthrough grasp of his herniated-disks problem. Not their plan to have him sit out 2018-19 season.
   3398. tshipman Posted: July 18, 2018 at 08:58 PM (#5712278)
I realize that I'm pretty late to the party on trade analysis.

One thing that I don't think has been brought up here: This trade is a win for the Raptors even if Kawhi leaves after the season.

DeRozan has 3 more years left on his deal @27MM/yr. I don't think his deal meets the Nene test. If you offered him to any team for free, I don't think he would have a taker. The fact of the matter is that DeRozan hasn't made the Raptors better in a long time. Now, maybe that changes on the Spurs, but it wasn't going to change for the Raptors.

The Raptors have a real shot to have the best record in the NBA. Now, I happen to believe that the Raptors are a bunch of frauds until they show otherwise in the playoffs, but in the regular season at least, the rest of the East is freaking awful! There are like two teams with realistic shots to win the East this year, and Kawhi instantly becomes the best player in the conference by a wide margin.

I think the Spurs did a terrible, terrible job here. If you trade a superstar, you want to gain assets for the future, because you'll never be as good as you were with your superstar. This trade doesn't do that. They get a couple of seconds or a bad first. Instead, they get locked into fake contention (48-52 wins) without either the cap space or the trade assets to improve further. Maybe there wasn't a better deal, but I have to believe the Lakers offer was better for the future, even if it was worse for the present.
   3399. PJ Martinez Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:04 PM (#5712280)
The fact of the matter is that DeRozan hasn't made the Raptors better in a long time.

I recall that his net ratings have generally not been good, but I am skeptical of the conclusion that DeMar DeRozan doesn't have anything to do with the team winning 59 games last year.
Kawhi instantly becomes the best player in the conference by a wide margin.

Kawhi has, in the past, had a better individual season than any other player in the East next year, I think. But he's a question mark until he gets on the court again. Maybe this is semantics, but I'd say Giannis is the best player in the East until someone else plays better than he did last season.
   3400. maccoach57 Posted: July 18, 2018 at 09:46 PM (#5712313)
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