Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

OT - 2018 NBA Summer Potpourri (finals, draft, free agency, Colangelo dragging)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom can be bothered to curate their own thread to avoid detracting from what this site is really about:  complaints about mayonnaise.


EDIT: image is shrunken. Mouse over to show full size. -vi

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: May 30, 2018 at 12:56 AM | 3814 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 37 of 39 pages ‹ First  < 35 36 37 38 39 > 
   3601. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 24, 2018 at 08:36 AM (#5714703)
Current 5Dimes Odds, which are probably not worth a ton but still worth more than my opinion. Included over/under for team wins when a number was listed, which was only for about 10 teams at this point.

East
1 Boston -122 (over/under 59 wins)
2 Philadelphia +325 (over/under 56 wins)
3 Toronto +375 (over/under 56 wins)
4 Indiana +1500
5 Milwaukee +2000 (over/under 47 wins)
6 Washington +2500
7 Miami +6000
8 Detroit +6000
9 Charlotte +12500
10 Chicago +15000
11 New York +15000 (over/under 34 wins)
12 Cleveland +15000 (over/under 26 wins)
13 Orlando +20000
14 Brooklyn +40000
15 Atlanta +40000

West
1 Golden State -218 (over/under 64 wins)
2 Houston +525 (over/under 56 wins)
3 Lakers +550 (over/under 50 wins)
4 Oklahoma City +3850 (over/under 48 wins)
5 Utah +6000
6 San Antonio +8500 (over/under 45 wins)
7 New Orleans +8500 (over/under 43 wins)
8 Portland +8500
9 Denver +11500
10 Minnesota +12000
11 Dallas +12000
12 Clippers +23500
13 Memphis +35000
14 Phoenix +35000
15 Sacramento +92500
   3602. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 09:28 AM (#5714726)
Memphis will win more games than the Clippers.

I have the following teams not making the playoffs:

Suns
Clippers
Kings
Mavericks
Portland
Minnesota
San Antonio
Denver

Memphis as 7 seed, also above New Orleans.

West is going to be loaded this year!

I think that means you only have 7 teams making the playoffs? Which would be a huge upset.
   3603. JJ1986 Posted: July 24, 2018 at 09:30 AM (#5714727)
Toronto +375
This seems way too long.
   3604. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 24, 2018 at 09:32 AM (#5714728)
What do the odds in 3601 represent? Is that odds for best record? Or odds to win the conference?

Houston's over/under seems low to me. I know they lost some good role players but I think they can get a ring chaser or two, and their pure offensive talent should carry them I think.
   3605. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 24, 2018 at 09:42 AM (#5714731)
What do the odds in 3601 represent? Is that odds for best record? Or odds to win the conference?


Odds to win the conference. Just seemed like a decent jumping off point.
   3606. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5714767)
This seems way too long.

Yeah Toronto is joint-ish favorite to me, at worst a very close 2nd.
   3607. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5714768)
I'm honestly not sure I have a single other quibble in the East, though. I'd probably put Philly 3rd and maybe rearrange 1-2, depending on when you ask me. But that seems like the right 8 in the playoffs as things stand right now. Maybe flip Orlando-Brooklyn at the bottom?

The West, though, I think I like Utah as the 4, maybe even 3. And I'm convinced Denver is a playoff team.
   3608. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 10:47 AM (#5714793)
That Toronto number can change a lot if Kawhi laces up the sneakers at USA camp this week. Everyone is just waiting for him to show he can play.
   3609. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 24, 2018 at 10:49 AM (#5714798)
Yeah, it might be a good time to get a value bet in on the Raps before Kawhi plays again.
   3610. Rally Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:21 AM (#5714822)
Minnesota #10 seems way too low. This team won 47 games last year and still has Butler and Towns, don't they?
   3611. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5714823)
I don't know why, but I am slowly becoming more optimistic about the Wolves in terms of playoffs next year. OK, after some thought I think I do know why (other than just fandom).

I think the "feelings" stuff we keep hearing rumors about could easily be overstated (at least in terms of next year's outcomes), there is plenty of room for Wiggins and Towns to improve, and most teams do better in the second year of adding a player of Butler's caliber. And all that is without hoping for greater health.

Long term I still think the Wolves are likely trapped in non man's land, but I can definitely see them making the playoffs next year and I think many folks are overly down on them. Not that they are a lock or anything, just they are being underappreciated, after being perhaps overvalued last year before the season.

EDIT: MN Coke to Rally, who wrote his missive while I was typing mine.
   3612. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5714825)
Minnesota #10 seems way too low. This team won 47 games last year and still has Butler and Towns, don't they?

And their worst defensive lineups all involved Crawford, who is gone. I am as down on Thibs as anyone, but I suspect they will be better this year, modulo the obvious downside risk of injury.
   3613. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:36 AM (#5714839)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 2m2 minutes ago

ESPN reporting with @WindhorstESPN: Cavaliers forward Kevin Love has signed a four-year, $120 million contract extension --- topping out his overall deal at five-years, $145 million, league sources tell ESPN.
   3614. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5714842)
Do the Cavs have a plan? Asking for a friend.
   3615. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5714844)
What the actual ####?
   3616. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5714845)
Do the Cavs have a plan? Asking for a friend.

Win a championship so Dan Gilbert can send LeBron a humble-brag e-mail. This is good news for the Atlanta Hawks, of course.
   3617. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:50 AM (#5714856)
This seems like a fair interpretation:

Mark Deeks @MarkDeeksNBA

You can't just "deal for assets" a non-core veteran player considering the market as a whole and the 2019/20 free agency positioning, even if that player is an All-Star.

Mark Deeks @MarkDeeksNBA

This is said with reference to Kevin Love. Sure, he will have been movable, but there's not going to be a great bidding war there right now, considering skill set vs age versus team control. What Cleveland could at least do is address the last of these.

Mark Deeks @MarkDeeksNBA

The price has to be right, of course, for otherwise "team control" becomes "team's burden". But "deal for assets" is tossed around so liberally, including by this hypocrite about 26,000 times in that stupidly long book, that it's become a casual dismissal of a complex problem.

Mark Deeks @MarkDeeksNBA

Is that price right in this instance? Depends on specifics, but at first glance, the back end will be ambitious. Paying a 35 year old Kevin Love $30 mil might sting the chequebook a bit.

Nevertheless, always remember what happened with Blake Griffin not even six short months ago

Mark Deeks @MarkDeeksNBA

Signing Kevin Love to a four year extension in no way is synonymous with planning to keep Kevin Love around for four more years. They might not even manage one.

Mark Deeks @MarkDeeksNBA

In six months, Kevin Love will be tradeable. In six months, a desperate Wizards team will be ringing around everybody, determined to rejig their flailing team. That Wizards team won't be looking for rentals, and that's what Love would have been without an extension. Etc etc etc.
   3618. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5714861)
Hoping other teams will be as stupid as you are seems a bad way to go about things.
   3619. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: July 24, 2018 at 11:56 AM (#5714864)
Nobody asked if they had a good plan.
   3620. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:02 PM (#5714868)
Cavs fans seem happy enough about it, so job done. Nothing wrong with that.
   3621. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5714869)
Holy ####, that is a terrible contract. Wow.
   3622. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5714871)
Marks says the Cavs will still have $70mil in cap space in 2 years, so it's a combo of having "someone" theoretically worth watching and having to spend the money, or at least feeling like they have to. I'm not exactly sure this is the best way to go about that, but Love is there now.

They're going to suck no matter what they do.
   3623. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:05 PM (#5714872)
I don't get the general idea that Love's trade value is better now that he's extended. It seems to me it's worse.
   3624. aberg Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5714876)
Long term I still think the Wolves are likely trapped in non man's land, but I can definitely see them making the playoffs next year and I think many folks are overly down on them. Not that they are a lock or anything, just they are being underappreciated, after being perhaps overvalued last year before the season.


Yeah, I think part of the pessimism is that MN sports fans and media are generally down on everything (having the longest active Championship draught among 4-ML team markets will do that). It means that there's not much rah-rah stuff to counter the inevitable down cycles. In the big picture, lots went wrong last year- the best player missed extended time, the FA who was intended to fortify the second unit destroyed it, Wiggins regressed. Even if all of those things happen again, they just made the playoffs, so the suggestion would be that even more things go wrong (or that other teams, collectively, have much better luck than last year). I view myself as an optimist about the team, but a reasonable one, and I think that finishing 5-6 is more likely than missing the playoffs.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 2m2 minutes ago

ESPN reporting with @WindhorstESPN: Cavaliers forward Kevin Love has signed a four-year, $120 million contract extension --- topping out his overall deal at five-years, $145 million, league sources tell ESPN.


Hey, good for him. He locks in one more big payday at what seems like a very reasonable market value. As others have said, it makes it easier for Cleveland to trade him, which is also fine. Love basically traded control over where he would go next summer in exchange for mitigating the risk that this year would hurt his value (by injury or by showing that degradation has had more of an impact on his stats than playing with Lebron). Also, the odds of him getting traded to a worse overall situation than Cleveland (team quality, home market, and ability to improve quickly) are not very high.
   3625. RJ in TO Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5714877)
Hoping other teams will be as stupid as you are seems a bad way to go about things.
I mean, the Kings still exist.
   3626. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5714878)
For perspective, I guess:

Mark Deeks @MarkDeeksNBA

His max as a FA in 2019, re-signing, for five years, would be circa. $221.3 mil based on current cap projection, or $170.9 mil over four. Max as a FA in 2019, new team, would be circa. four years and $164 mil. Max extension after opting in is four years and $148,455,060.
   3627. aberg Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:17 PM (#5714888)
I don't get the general idea that Love's trade value is better now that he's extended. It seems to me it's worse.


If you think that Love is not close to an AS-caliber player, then you're not going to want to pay him that salary. If you think he is an AS-caliber player, you'd rather have him for multiple years than risk losing him immediately.


Holy ####, that is a terrible contract. Wow.


Puts him in the same pay bracket as Blake, Heighword, Lowry, Conley, Millsap, Derozan, Holiday, Porter. ISTM that he's better than some of those guys and worse than some. The contract covers older years for him than some of them, but certainly not all. Factoring in inflation, it doesn't seem out of line. Maybe I'm still guilty of overrating him, as I definitely have been in the past.
   3628. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:20 PM (#5714893)
Puts him in the same pay bracket as Blake, Heighword, Lowry, Conley, Millsap, Derozan, Holiday, Porter. ISTM that he's better than some of those guys and worse than some. The contract covers older years for him than some of them, but certainly not all. Factoring in inflation, it doesn't seem out of line. Maybe I'm still guilty of overrating him, as I definitely have been in the past.

Most of those guys aren't a. big men who are b. nearly unplayable on defense in the playoffs.

Also: I love that misspelling Hey,word?'s name has stuck for this long.
   3629. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5714899)
Maybe I'm still guilty of overrating him, as I definitely have been in the past.

I guess the question for me, which isn't really answerable until the season starts, is can he still be a first option kind of guy on offense?
   3630. maccoach57 Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:35 PM (#5714910)
I have always defended/supported Love as a player(I tend to be biased towards/defend UCLA guys--Westbrook, Ball--Ariza has always been a personal favorite) but I do not think that Love's extension is a good idea for Cleveland. I have never seen a NBA franchise/team that was more about one guy than Cleveland was about LeBron James, so I think they need to be divesting, not investing. Love is 29 and played 59 games last year, and I think the case that he is not as good as some of the metrics suggest has some merit.
   3631. maccoach57 Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5714920)
Minnesota #10 seems way too low. This team won 47 games last year and still has Butler and Towns, don't they?


Like I noted, there were 7 teams between 46-49 wins in the West, and a team with 35 wins has a couple of young guys that will probably get better and has signed LeBron James. So, I agree with berg, in that I this may shake out based on injuries. If James or Davis or Towns or Jokic or Westbrook or Lillard misses significant time, their respective teams are probably out.

I do not see the Clippers in the playoffs. I think Utah and OKC will be in, along with the obvious ones, Golden State and Houston. 5-8...depends on injuries, in all likelihood. The Lakers have some obvious questions/problems, but if James plays 35 mpg/75 g and is still LeBron James, I think they will be in.
   3632. aberg Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5714926)
Most of those guys aren't a. big men who are b. nearly unplayable on defense in the playoffs.


The Cavs aren't gonna have to worry about his defense in the playoffs!
   3633. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 12:50 PM (#5714927)
The Cavs aren't gonna have to worry about his defense in the playoffs!

Man tapping on his head dot gif.
   3634. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5714938)
Nate Duncan @NateDuncanNBA
$30 million a year for Kevin Love through his age 34 season immediately becomes a candidate for the worst contract in the NBA. And it's even worse that it provides no present value-doesn't even kick in until next year, when Cavs likely to be even further out of contention.

   3635. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5714941)
Would you consider Love a "playmaker"? If so, the Lakers will have room to absorb his contract next summer...
   3636. RJ in TO Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5714946)
How many truly untradable contracts are there, or have there been, in the NBA? It seems even the worst deals can be moved, under the right conditions.
   3637. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:12 PM (#5714952)
How many truly untradable contracts are there, or have there been, in the NBA? It seems even the worst deals can be moved, under the right conditions.

Yeah I think they're all moveable. It's just often a swap of roughly equally bad contracts, with a pick or cash thrown in. Carmelo for Kanter, etc.
   3638. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5714954)
I'm closer to the line of thinking that Love had more value to the Cavs as an expiring contract than he does as a player on a near-max deal.

There's also an element of... I may not explain this well and I also may be dead wrong, but... Love has to know Cleveland is going to be terrible and he's just signed on to spend the last years of his effective career as the best guy on a lottery team. I don't begrudge him at all for choosing to cash in on a guaranteed nine figure payday rather than risk staying healthy and effective for another year before hitting free agency; hell, I would likely have done the same. But from a team's perspective I feel like, especially given his poor health and defense-free track record, they've just given a truckload of money to a guy who's mostly just in it for the paycheck and doesn't really care much about winning at this point in his life.

Maybe he'll be healthy and play well and become tradeable, but it would be only marginally so given the length of the contract. And I understand that no contender has cap space right now so Love wasn't really tradeable on his old deal either. But I think, given the choice between signing Love to this contract or just flipping him for whatever at the deadline or even just letting him walk, I would choose the latter.

But it's not my franchise. Even if you think Love is overrated and a huge risk, no free agent of anywhere near even that modest level is going to return a phone call from Cleveland for the foreseeable future. If ownership is determined to avoid bottoming out at all costs, well... giving Love a huge extension is a gamble against long odds, but it might be the only way to even have a chance at it.
   3639. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5714956)
And yet Ryan Anderson is still a Rocket...
   3640. RJ in TO Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5714959)
So how many games do the Kevin Love Clevelanders win this season? Given the East generally kind of stinks, are they in contention for one of the last playoff spots or are they going to be serious contender in this year's Tankapalooza? Or, worst of all for them, are they going to find a way to finish with something between 30-35 wins, making them irrelevant in both directions?
   3641. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5714966)
I think the Cavs are a 40-ish win team. Now that those guys won't be leaning on LeBron all the time, I think you'll see better play from some of them. They aren't the garbage the media makes them out to be in the LeBron is God narrative. They really could use a rim protecting center, though. Not sure why they didn't make a play for Noel.
   3642. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5714970)
So how many games do the Kevin Love Clevelanders win this season?


If Love manages to play 70+ games, then 25-30. But only that many because they play in the East. Even WITH Love they might be the worst team in the league. Their defense is SO BAD.

e: Shooty's post above mine is really interesting because--acknowledging that I could just be swallowing media hype--I'm totally the opposite, I think this team is terrible and it's astonishing how much LeBron carried them.

I'd feel better if they had a coach.
   3643. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5714972)
Kevin Love is a fine player, underrated.
This was an overpay and a mistake.
   3644. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5714979)
Kevin Love is a fine player, underrated.
This was an overpay and a mistake.

Ha, this is like the quintessential Der-K post.

(This is not an insult, to be clear!)
   3645. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5714981)
Brian Windhorst @WindhorstESPN
Larry Nance Jr., fresh off his wedding in Hawaii, attended Kevin Love's signing today. Nance is next up on the Cavs extension priority list.

Huh. Wonder what that's going to look like.
   3646. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5714992)
e: Shooty's post above mine is really interesting because--acknowledging that I could just be swallowing media hype--I'm totally the opposite, I think this team is terrible and it's astonishing how much LeBron carried them.

I can see this, too. It wouldn't shock me if they really are terrible, I just feel like they got used to standing around and waiting for LeBron to be LeBron and it became a bad habit for them. We'll see about Lue. He was well thought of in the league as an assistant and now we'll see what he's got.

Kevin Love is a fine player, underrated.
This was an overpay and a mistake.


This is where I am, too. I'm just an inefficient chucker with words compared Der-K.
   3647. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:50 PM (#5715006)
I have to think that poor Ty Lue will have a much better time of it next year, guiding a bad team with no expectations.
   3648. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 24, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5715014)
I can see this, too. It wouldn't shock me if they really are terrible, I just feel like they got used to standing around and waiting for LeBron to be LeBron and it became a bad habit for them. We'll see about Lue. He was well thought of in the league as an assistant and now we'll see what he's got.


I agree. We've noticed that good players seem to become bad when they play with Russell Westbrook and bad players become good when they leave his team. There's no way to know how this team is going to play without LeBron's gravity well changing everyone's playing style at all times.

They look a heck of a lot better than the first post-LeBron Cavs team built around J.J. Hickson and Anthony Parker, that's for sure. And that team didn't just lose LeBron, they lost Ilgauskas, Delonte West, and then they traded Mo Williams and Jamario Moon who had been in their starting lineup. It was a complete teardown.
   3649. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5715016)
I agree. We've noticed that good players seem to become bad when they play with Russell Westbrook and bad players become good when they leave his team. There's no way to know how this team is going to play without LeBron's gravity well changing everyone's playing style at all times.

Weirdly, KP did an analysis of this and LeBron as nearly as bad as Westbrook on this point. I don't really know what to make of that. (FWIW, Steph was the best at making teammates better according to the analysis. I'll see if I can find it.)
   3650. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 24, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5715019)
no offense taken!
my posts are mostly a mix of "banal observation that fell short of pithy (like here)", "long winded self important ramble", "open ended question about an obscure thing", and "news update about an obscure guy".
   3651. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 24, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5715021)
There's this. It's not quite what I was looking for, though. It does have this fun quote:

Still, these results seem to offer an important takeaway for any team that signs James this summer (including the Cavaliers). While some additional shot creators are necessary, particularly in a playoff setting, any team with James must be careful not to invest too many resources on players who are best with the ball in their hands. Instead, the focus should be on finding role players whose games will mesh well with LeBron's.
   3652. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5715028)
my posts are mostly a mix of "banal observation that fell short of pithy (like here)"

This one I liked because it was pithy dismissal of the hyperbole + getting to the same answer. I liked it.
   3653. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 24, 2018 at 02:32 PM (#5715039)
My completely amateur opinion was 30-35 wins for the Cavs. Not that anybody should put any stock in that.

But fwiw, I did just look up the betting lines, and the only one I can find for the Cavs has them at 35.5.
   3654. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 24, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5715052)
I think the phrase purgatory gets thrown around way too much, but man this Cleveland deal and potential-pending Nance extension seems like they want to be locked into that low-30s win total. That team needed a rebuild. I could deal with Love's playoff defense at that price if he was younger and healthier. But oof, this feels awful.
   3655. maccoach57 Posted: July 24, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5715078)
Now that those guys won't be leaning on LeBron all the time, I think you'll see better play from some of them.


I think this narrative is generally oversold with ultra-high-usage guys. Henry Abbott Syndrome. But perhaps I am wrong. But I don't think Cleveland had much talent outside of James and arguably Love.
   3656. Rally Posted: July 24, 2018 at 03:01 PM (#5715081)
nearly unplayable on defense in the playoffs.


That's not going to be a problem at all this year. I concur with the 30-35 win estimate for the Cavs.
   3657. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5715130)
I think this narrative is generally oversold with ultra-high-usage guys. Henry Abbott Syndrome. But perhaps I am wrong. But I don't think Cleveland had much talent outside of James and arguably Love.

I'm a marginal believer in the theory but definitely wouldn't apply it to LeBron. I think most of the 2017-18 Cavs were replacement level or worse.
   3658. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 04:01 PM (#5715154)
Ian Begley @IanBegley
The Knicks have reached an agreement with free agent big man Noah Vonleh, per ESPN sources.

Good move, I think, worth a shot to see if he has something.
   3659. aberg Posted: July 24, 2018 at 04:07 PM (#5715165)
It's hard to peg the Cavs' win total because we don't know what they'll be trying to do. If they're a few games out of the playoffs after the ASB, will their vets sit with nagging injuries so guys like Sexton and Osman can play more minutes? I assume that the win-optimizing depth chart would look something like:

PG- Hill, Sexton
Wings- Hood, Smith, Clarkson, Osman, Korver
Bigs- Love, Thompson, Nance, Zizic

If the lineup stays healthier than it should and they try to win every game against the dregs of the East, I don't think .500 is out of the question. That might get them into the east playoffs, and doing so might be important to Gilbert. Nonetheless, I concur with the estimates that 30-35 wins is most probable.
   3660. RJ in TO Posted: July 24, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5715171)
30-35 wins seems like the worst possible outcome for the long term health of the franchise.
   3661. jmurph Posted: July 24, 2018 at 04:13 PM (#5715172)
Wings- Hood, Smith, Clarkson, Osman, Korver

That is... a group of players who are technically wings, is the nicest thing I have to say about it.
   3662. maccoach57 Posted: July 24, 2018 at 04:54 PM (#5715215)
I'm a marginal believer in the theory but definitely wouldn't apply it to LeBron


I am biased about it because of Bryant, so I am open to the idea that I am wrong. But there were people saying that Ariza and Farmar would blow up away from Kobe and they didn't. When Kobe missed games, Pau's and Bynum's USGs spiked but they were less efficient. Post-Achilles Bryant was a terrible player, but neither Russell nor Clarkson blew up neither when he retired nor when they went to other organizations. Oladipo is IMO a special case, and I think he may regress this year. So, Love, Hill, Clarkson and Hood will all have higher USGs and and may do marginally better, but I don't see them all transforming post-James. Nance Jr. is a low-usage guy wherever he goes.

   3663. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 24, 2018 at 05:27 PM (#5715239)
I'm a marginal believer in the theory but definitely wouldn't apply it to LeBron.
I think the trouble with this theory is that it's an oversimplification: there are stylistic differences between ball-dominating players that affect how they affect their teammates' play. There's a pretty interesting discussion of one of the complicating factors in a recent backpicks post messing around with a new passer rating stat:
Steve Kerr’s rating in Cleveland at the beginning of his career was a healthy 6.7, but then in Chicago it ranged from 4.5 to 5.4. This is because Kerr was an efficient on-ball passer. He wouldn’t drop show-stopping dimes and he wouldn’t whip difficult passes. Instead, his deliveries were smart and precise, and when he carried a slightly larger load in Cleveland, he posted an efficiency resume comparable to Dinwiddie’s: 30 percent of his load came from assists with a 3.4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio (98th percentile). Moving Kerr off the ball more in Chicago and into the flowing cuts of the Triangle offense made more of his opprtunities dynamic, extra passes, and his assists suffered as a result.

On the flip side, Robert Horry was never a dynamic primary passer. He didn’t create from the post nor would he drive-and-kick with regularity. Yet he popped as an extra passer who could also hit cutters. His passer rating improved as his role expanded in the Lakers Triangle, hovering around 5 before peaking at 8.0 in 2002 as his minutes increased.
As an aside, this lead me to search youtube for "Robert Horry pass", which lead me to this stunner from the archives; I then went down a "young Kobe dunk highlights" rabbit hole and now I have some newly-specific best-case-scenario-type hopes about Jaylen Brown's offseason project of improving his handle. I digress.

Point is, it's perfectly plausible that Kevin Love is better and more dynamic as a primary on-ball passer/playmaker than he is in a more opportunistic supporting role: his last year in Minnesota he had an AST% of 21.4, nearly double his rate in any year in Cleveland; and an AST/TOV of ≈7/4, while every other year since his ratio has hovered just above 1. This is very likely an anomalous career year, since his other Minnesota years are pretty much in line with his passing numbers as a Cav, but it's certainly plausible that there's a coherent Xs-and-Os explanation that doesn't apply to Ariza/Farmar/etc. I strongly doubt any strong conclusion can be gleaned from stats alone, though.

Poking through the included table of top individual seasons by passer rating (the validity of which stat I have no opinion on yet, so I wouldn't take this for more than novelty at first) finds 2013-2014 Kevin Love with a phenomenal (especially for a big) 7.3, tied with a bunch of well-known point guards, the 95-96 seasons of both Kukoc and Pippen, and, hilariously (given reputation), 2003-2004 Kobe Bryant.
   3664. PJ Martinez Posted: July 24, 2018 at 08:13 PM (#5715321)
I then went down a "young Kobe dunk highlights" rabbit hole and now I have some newly-specific best-case-scenario-type hopes about Jaylen Brown's offseason project of improving his handle.
The Celtics have a young wing who imitates Kobe, but it isn't Brown.
   3665. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 24, 2018 at 08:51 PM (#5715345)
I just think that Brown should try to emulate the way Kobe used reverse dunks strategically as a way to evade the defense: not a lot of players combine sufficiently electric hops with a sufficiently analytical approach (let alone the work ethic to polish several different varieties of pre-dunk footwork and awkward dunking trajectories), but Brown maybe could. This is pure wishcasting, though, and improving his handle so he can get to the rim more consistently is a hard prerequisite.
   3666. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 25, 2018 at 05:48 AM (#5715457)
Ian Begley @IanBegley
The Knicks have reached an agreement with free agent big man Noah Vonleh, per ESPN sources.


Good move, I think, worth a shot to see if he has something.


I'm not going to say he doesn't have anything, but he surely showed nothing with the Bulls last year. This is interesting though, are part of a bigger plan it would appear

Mike Vorkunov @MikeVorkunov 14h14 hours ago

Wrote the other day about how Knicks are Second Drafting their way through this rebuild. Today, they reached an agreement w/ Noah Vonleh, which @IanBegley reported first. Now have NBA-high 9 lottery picks on the roster and 6 drafted since 2014 — 2nd most.
   3667. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 25, 2018 at 09:55 AM (#5715513)
I always thought that salvaging former lottery picks was a pretty good strategy. So many of these guys are so young when they're drafted. 19 year olds are really bad at life in general, perhaps especially those who are handed a lot of money and who have always succeeded before. One rude awakening later, maybe the person has caught up to the talent. You never know, and it's usually cheap to find out.
   3668. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: July 25, 2018 at 09:57 AM (#5715514)
I always thought that salvaging former lottery picks was a pretty good strategy. So many of these guys are so young when they're drafted. 19 year olds are really bad at life in general, perhaps especially those who are handed a lot of money and who have always succeeded before. One rude awakening later, maybe the person has caught up to the talent. You never know, and it's usually cheap to find out.

And what's the opportunity cost to the Knicks, anyway?
   3669. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: July 25, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5715530)
Haven't checked the details on Vonleh's contract, but the problem for the Knicks is that they're signing these guys to one year contracts where, if they make good, the guys leave and the team has no enhanced rights to keep them. At that point you must REALLY be betting on Fiz/the front office selling guys on NY (sidenote, I haven't seen much/any mainstream coverage of this but I feel like the Knicks are very intentionally building the blackest front office power structure in the league and I'm curious to see how it plays out). I guess it's better than giving multi-year player option deals to Ron Baker though.
   3670. DCA Posted: July 25, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5715537)
I always thought that salvaging former lottery picks was a pretty good strategy.

IMO this is an underrated component of the Warriors' success. Curry and Klay were lottery picks but also 3 year starters in college. Draymond had 4 years (and not a lottery pick). And they all took a couple of years to develop into all-star caliber players. If they were one-and-dones, maybe that development doesn't happen in time for them to be established before their rookie deals are done, and they are locked into a perception as rotation pieces instead of core talent.
   3671. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 25, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5715540)
I always thought that salvaging former lottery picks was a pretty good strategy. So many of these guys are so young when they're drafted. 19 year olds are really bad at life in general, perhaps especially those who are handed a lot of money and who have always succeeded before. One rude awakening later, maybe the person has caught up to the talent. You never know, and it's usually cheap to find out.

Agreed, but usually you need a pretty stable and strong organization to really straighten guys out. The Knicks to date have not been that. As long as Dolan stays far away and hands off though, it could work. Though there is the downside that NJ points out. A couple team option/non-guaranteed years on the back end would have been a smarter way to do this though.
   3672. PJ Martinez Posted: July 25, 2018 at 10:47 AM (#5715543)
3670 seems like a non sequitur. Is the argument that more teams should be taking players who have stayed longer in college, like those guys? I'm not sure recent draft history would bear that strategy out.

As for salvaging former lottery picks, I also really like that strategy in theory, but how many times has it paid off? Billups comes to mind... I can't think of other good examples off the top of my head.
   3673. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 25, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5715559)
Here is something I didn't know--Jordan Clarkson represents the Philippines in international basketball.
   3674. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 25, 2018 at 11:47 AM (#5715589)
Some possibilities for salvaged young lottery picks with new teams (though some different circumstances): Beasley, Livingston, Joe Smith, Bibby, Webber, Waiters. I'm sure there are better examples.
   3675. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 25, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5715593)
Some possibilities for salvaged young lottery picks with new teams (though some different circumstances): Beasley, Livingston, Joe Smith, Bibby, Webber, Waiters. I'm sure there are better examples.


Ugh. Seriously ... no. But that may be PTSD talking.
   3676. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 25, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5715596)
Oh, Favors is a good one.
   3677. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 25, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5715600)
Fiasco aside, Joe Smith was the #1 overall pick, MN signed him for a tiny amount, and he did way better with them than with the Warriors who drafted him. Sorry for the incidental bad memories :(
   3678. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 25, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5715612)
Webber was not salvaged. He forced his way out of Golden State and was already a star when he did.
   3679. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 25, 2018 at 12:09 PM (#5715614)
Albert Nahmad @AlbertNahmad 10m10 minutes ago

Thunder, with the Carmelo Anthony trade now official, are currently looking at $148.7M in salaries to 14 players + $88.8M in repeater luxury taxes = $237.5M total.
   3680. jmurph Posted: July 25, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5715623)
Albert Nahmad @AlbertNahmad 10m10 minutes ago

Thunder, with the Carmelo Anthony trade now official, are currently looking at $148.7M in salaries to 14 players + $88.8M in repeater luxury taxes = $237.5M total.

These numbers blow me away every time. They were the 4 seed last year, 1 game up on 8th! And I'll be surprised if they're favored in the 1st round this year. Surely there are cheaper ways to put together a meh playoff team.
   3681. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: July 25, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5715651)
These numbers blow me away every time. They were the 4 seed last year, 1 game up on 8th! And I'll be surprised if they're favored in the 1st round this year. Surely there are cheaper ways to put together a meh playoff team.

They'll be better this year, I think, but not better enough to make any noise in the playoffs.
   3682. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: July 25, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5715666)
These numbers blow me away every time. They were the 4 seed last year, 1 game up on 8th! And I'll be surprised if they're favored in the 1st round this year. Surely there are cheaper ways to put together a meh playoff team.

Without Melo and with health from Roberson, I think they're a good bet to be in the low to mid 50s win range this year. They'll be in the fight for the 3 seed with Utah and Houston is one Chris Paul injury away from being just a solid team. Nothing you can do about the GS situation though.
   3683. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: July 25, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5715674)
OKC had an SRS of 6th last year. Westbrook, George, and Adams is a really good core. Their rotational players mostly suck and don't fit well with Westbrook. They also drew a tough first round matchup last year, and they play in the West. I mean, they're not a great team, but they're a pretty good team capable of making noise in the playoffs. Yeah, they play in a ridiculously tough conference where you sometimes get really tough first round matchups and where the path out is probably going to require beating 2 excellent, excellent teams. I think if you have Westbrook in his prime, you have to try though.
   3684. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: July 25, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5715675)
The Thunder just can't shoot, though. With Roberson, Adams and Grant out there, the lane is going to be so, so clogged. Their team is just so weirdly constructed. I love their defense but I think that only takes you so far. And this idea that Westbrook will play off the ball to accommodate Schroeder. Mein Gott im Himmel! No, that's not going to happen. I'm looking at you Kevin O'Connor. Give me a break with that shit.
   3685. jmurph Posted: July 25, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5715686)
Right I also think OKC are pretty good, but I called them a "meh playoff team" above, intentionally. It's just a weird mix of talent and so, so expensive, and I just don't think they'll be a good matchup against nearly any other playoff team.
   3686. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 25, 2018 at 07:11 PM (#5715946)
The Hawks' youth movement continues apace as they sign swingman V.Carter, of North Carolina.
   3687. Booey Posted: July 25, 2018 at 07:30 PM (#5715956)
The Hawks' youth movement continues apace as they sign swingman V.Carter, of North Carolina.


A future HOFer is always a good pick up, right?!

I'm glad VC is still in the league. Too lazy to look it up, but I'm guessing he and Dirk are the last 2 players left who are older than me.
   3688. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 25, 2018 at 07:34 PM (#5715961)
I'm fine with it.

Manu and The Jet might both play next season as well.
   3689. aberg Posted: July 25, 2018 at 07:37 PM (#5715966)
The Hawks' youth movement continues apace as they sign swingman V.Carter, of North Carolina.


At 41, Vince is older than the combined ages of any two of Huerter, Young, and Collins.
   3690. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 25, 2018 at 07:59 PM (#5715973)
Hawks also signed g/f Daniel Hamilton who was a 16/9/8 in the g league (good!) but with 5 turns (bad! he was learning the point guard spot), <30% from three, and iffy to bad defense. Wish he were a 2-way guy.

The Pellies also signed a young minimum wage wing in ex-Rocket/Knick Troy Williams. He's a solid enough scrub, a decent signing.

   3691. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 26, 2018 at 02:41 AM (#5716133)
Webber was not salvaged. He forced his way out of Golden State and was already a star when he did.


I meant Webber with Sacramento turning into a good citizen (after he had been productive in Washington, but had lots of disruptive off court issues).
   3692. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 26, 2018 at 06:10 AM (#5716146)
At 41, Vince is older than the combined ages of any two of Huerter, Young, and Collins.

He was drafted before Young was born.
   3693. . . . . . . Posted: July 26, 2018 at 08:21 AM (#5716164)
I know I’m like the 100th to say this, but can you imagine how good VC would’ve been if he came up in today’s NBA? 40% 3P shooter, with good size and an A+ ability to get a decent shot at the end of busted possessions? I’d bet we’d consider him the best in the league not named LeBron.
   3694. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 26, 2018 at 09:49 AM (#5716205)
He'd be more appreciated, yeah, but I don't know about top 5 in the league, much less top 2. He shot below 40% from deep more often than not, wasn't super efficient from two, and wasn't an elite defender. Could have improved these things with a modern up-to-date mindset, but that's no guarantee.

Loved watching that guy though, was convinced he'd be a STAR while he was in school.
---

Jaylen Morris likely to sign a two-way with Milwaukee. Shane Larkin (I imagine most of us know this but, if not, he's Barry's kid) signed to play in Turkey. Lamar Odom is going to play in China.
   3695. jmurph Posted: July 26, 2018 at 09:51 AM (#5716206)
Shane Larkin (I imagine most of us know this but - he's Barry's kid) signed to play in Turkey.

I'm a little surprised he couldn't find an NBA team- he gave Boston some decent minutes last year.
   3696. JC in DC Posted: July 26, 2018 at 09:58 AM (#5716210)
[3695] Combination of things, probably. From teams' perspectives, he's "old" (nearly 26), so you know his ceiling pretty much, many teams are trying to cultivate new PGs, he's a pretty limited player. From his perspective, he stays in shape, the money's pretty good, he's no G-league guy.
   3697. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 26, 2018 at 10:01 AM (#5716212)
That's my thought too. He's also relatively open to going to Europe (having tried it before) and seemed to prioritize having a larger role.
   3698. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 26, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5716213)
And conversely, the Celtics have signed former Pitt star Brad Wanamaker, who is older than Shane Larkin and has been in Europe since 2012. Anyone mention that yet?

29-year-old Brad Wanamaker, in the NBA! I can't believe it. And he's a Philly guy too. The first Pitt player to root for in the NBA since... Sam Young? (it's hard to count our one one-and-done player, Steven Adams)
   3699. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 26, 2018 at 10:13 AM (#5716219)
Lowe goes deep on the Bulls. There's an underlying optimism in there that I didn't expect to see, but the overall point is something I've mentioned - the Bulls seem to have a pretty low ceiling with this group.

I definitely am looking forward to this year more than last, not that I expect anything that good.
   3700. JC in DC Posted: July 26, 2018 at 10:29 AM (#5716234)
Why low ceiling, Moses? They seem to be building pretty solidly, at least through the draft. You've got to love LM and WCJr together.
Page 37 of 39 pages ‹ First  < 35 36 37 38 39 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Kiko Sakata
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogSnell wins 20th, ties Rays record in 4-0 victory over Texas
(30 - 2:08pm, Sep 20)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread (2018-19 season begins!)
(806 - 2:01pm, Sep 20)
Last: jmurph

NewsblogOTP 2018 September 17: How Brett Kavanaugh explains his baseball ticket debt
(1381 - 2:00pm, Sep 20)
Last: Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant

Gonfalon CubsThe Final Push
(134 - 1:55pm, Sep 20)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1947 Discussion
(10 - 1:54pm, Sep 20)
Last: MrC.

NewsblogWho needs Justice when you have OMNICHATTER! for Sept. 20, 2018
(1 - 1:50pm, Sep 20)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

NewsblogDodgers bash their way to MLB history with record-tying seven 20-homer hitters
(9 - 1:36pm, Sep 20)
Last: Blastin

NewsblogIs Red Sox' slump temporary, or did they come back to earth?
(6 - 1:25pm, Sep 20)
Last: TomH

NewsblogOrioles match club record with 107th loss, 5-0 to Blue Jays before tiny home crowd
(54 - 1:24pm, Sep 20)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (September 2018)
(355 - 1:17pm, Sep 20)
Last: jmurph

NewsblogOT - 2018 NBA Thread (Pre-Season Edition)
(424 - 1:01pm, Sep 20)
Last: TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one

NewsblogMinor league baseball players exploring union as they continue to battle low wages
(13 - 11:34am, Sep 20)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network)

Sox Therapy11 Days Later
(74 - 11:19am, Sep 20)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogRed Sox division title banner falls off truck; its return may cost them - The Boston Globe
(31 - 11:12am, Sep 20)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

Sox Therapy6,036 Days
(12 - 10:50am, Sep 20)
Last: villageidiom

Page rendered in 0.6508 seconds
46 querie(s) executed