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Sunday, September 02, 2018

OT - 2018 NFL thread

Quarantine procedure in effect.

The Raiders and Bears have finalized a deal that will send pass-rusher Khalil Mack and a second-round pick to Chicago in exchange for four draft picks—including two first-rounders—a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Saturday.

The Bears gave up first-round picks in 2019 and 2020, a third-round pick in 2020 and a sixth-round pick in 2019, the source said. In addition to Mack, Chicago also gets a second-round pick in 2020 and a conditional fifth-round pick in 2020.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: September 02, 2018 at 08:07 AM | 1333 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, off-topic

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   1301. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 06, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5812826)
Worth noting that by DVOA, New England was significantly better in 2002 than 2001 (that is in fact what motivated Aaron Schatz to create DVOA in the first place).
   1302. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 06, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5812832)
(I find it generally implausible that Belichick gets fired midseason, barring something like 1-7 or 0-8, but again it seems to me that before things got that bad he'd bench Drew and try Brady.)


No chance of that, at least not that soon. In fact by the 2001 season Belichick and Bledsoe's relationship was already on the rocks. Ownership gave Bledsoe the biggest contract in NFL history after the 5-11 2000 season (10 years, $100 million--it was advertised as a "lifetime contract" and he was gone one year later) over Belichick's objections. Belichick had an extremely toxic relationship with Bernie Kosar in Cleveland (so did Marty Schottenheimer, actually), which culminated in Belichick running Kosar out of town but the public backlash to it helping run Belichick himself out of town later, and he came to New England already with a bad taste in his mouth about Franchise Quarterbacks.

Funny how things can work out, sometimes. :)

Here's a fun fact that would presage Belichick's long disdain for injury reports: on the TV broadcast of the Patriots-Jets game in which Bledsoe was injured, on the following series Dick Enberg dutifully informed the audience that the Patriots' official pronouncement was that Bledsoe was not injured, but had been removed from the game as a coach's decision. He would be lying on a surgery table an hour later with a punctured lung and internal bleeding.
   1303. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 06, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5812835)
Just to glance at Brady's record of team success is mind blowing:

17 seasons as starter
16 division titles
13 AFC Championship games
9 Super Bowls
6 championships

The last time the AFC Championship game featured none of Brady/Manning/Roethlisberger was so long ago that one of the quarterbacks who played in that game retired 15 years ago, and the other died a decade ago. Brady and Manning met in the AFC Championship four times; many people might be surprised to be reminded that Manning won three of them. Brady and Roethlisberger met three times; Brady won all three. Manning and Roethlisberger never met in the AFC Championship (Brady's fault for being there almost every year) and in fact, remarkably, only met in the playoffs once, in 2005. Extra interesting because IMO 2005 was the best Colts team Manning ever played on, and also the best Steelers team Roethlisberger ever played on. It was one of the wildest games ever played. The Steelers won.
   1304. Nasty Nate Posted: February 06, 2019 at 02:45 PM (#5812838)
(I find it generally implausible that Belichick gets fired midseason, barring something like 1-7 or 0-8, but again it seems to me that before things got that bad he'd bench Drew and try Brady.)

No chance of that, at least not that soon. In fact by the 2001 season Belichick and Bledsoe's relationship was already on the rocks. Ownership gave Bledsoe the biggest contract in NFL history after the 5-11 2000 season (10 years, $100 million--it was advertised as a "lifetime contract" and he was gone one year later) over Belichick's objections. Belichick had an extremely toxic relationship with Bernie Kosar in Cleveland (so did Marty Schottenheimer, actually) and came to New England already with a bad taste in his mouth about Franchise Quarterbacks.
No chance of which, him being fired midseason or benching a healthy Drew?
   1305. SoSH U at work Posted: February 06, 2019 at 02:52 PM (#5812844)
The Steelers won.


Idiot kicker.
   1306. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 06, 2019 at 02:56 PM (#5812848)
Benching a healthy Bledsoe. He wouldn't have been able to get away with it, and the Patriots would not have won 11 games had Bledsoe returned to the lineup when he was healthy.

I remember everything surrounding Belichick's few hours as Jets head coach and subsequent expensive departure to the Patriots. But I also remember the Patriots having their worst season since Dick MacPherson in Belichick's first year, and starting 0-2 the following year, and there being talk in ESPN segments about how the Patriots might have made a gargantuan mistake and how long Kraft would be able to wait before admitting it.

It's easy to assume Belichick would have turned it around no matter what. But it's easy to forget just how much Drew Bledsoe was The Franchise as 2000 rolled into 2001. Belichick believed from day one that Brady was--not could develop into, not even would develop into, was--a better quarterback than Bledsoe. He resisted pressure from Kraft to play Bledsoe once Bledsoe had recovered. He was right, and deserves a LOT of credit for that.

But among the infinite universes of possibility, there are quite a few where Belichick left New England after two or three unsuccessful years and Brady ended up with a career somewhere in the range of Rich Gannon's to Kurt Warner's.
   1307. Nasty Nate Posted: February 06, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5812858)
Benching a healthy Bledsoe.
OK. I don't necessarily disagree but was confused because you followed the assertion with a bunch of reasons why he would bench him!
   1308. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: February 06, 2019 at 07:38 PM (#5812940)
Setting aside Joe Montana for a moment, is it the consensus that Brady is the best QB of his own generation, ahead of Peyton Manning (and to a lesser extent, Drew Brees)?

The one thing I would still like to see on this score, is a proper accounting of park factors (or stadium factors or whatever), especially when it comes to dome stadiums. It seems obvious, coming from a baseball background where this is commonplace, but I have tried to find some work on this, and failed to come up with much I found very convincing either way. Obviously park factors are less severe than they are in baseball, where parks can have significantly different dimensions. But I have to believe playing half your games in a dome, instead of windy and cold New England (or Pittsburgh or Green Bay) has to have some positive effect on passing statistics. And even places like San Diego would see some edge.

FWIW just from a surface view of it, Brady has a much much smaller home road split than either Manning or Brees. His numbers in a dome actually dwarf theirs (albeit in 14 games, which has some obvious sample size issues, and possibly selection bias), despite all of his being obviously on the road, while the vast majority of theirs are home games.
AY/A    Total Home Road
Brady   7.80  7.87 7.74
Manning 7.67  7.82 7.29
Brees   7.61  8.13 7.07

AY
/A     Dome       Outdoors   Retroof
Brady    9.10
(14G)  7.73(247G8.32(8G)
Manning  7.93(92G)  7.38(136G7.67(38G)
Brees    8.08(128G7.14(125G7.11(11G
   1309. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 06, 2019 at 08:29 PM (#5812969)
Has anyone else heard the theory that Belichick wanted to rebuild around Garoppolo and so Kraft forced him to be traded so Belichick would have to start Brady for as long as possible? There was even an idea that Belichick was so pissed over it, that he took Super Bowl LII off.
   1310. McCoy Posted: February 06, 2019 at 08:54 PM (#5812979)
The story was that garoppolo was Belichick's vision as Brady's heir. He would out him in place and then step down and his legacy would be cemented as he being the central figure for the success of the Patriots. Kraft didn't want to send Brady packing and supposedly Belichick's gave Jimmy away because he was pissed off.
   1311. McCoy Posted: February 06, 2019 at 08:55 PM (#5812980)
Tampa Bay couldn't win in the cold for what seemed like decades. Though they couldn't win at all for decades either.
   1312. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 06, 2019 at 10:01 PM (#5813002)
Not sure about the validity of the Kraft/Brady rumors, but given the events of the last 12 months, am glad the Patriots ended up keeping Brady.
   1313. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 06, 2019 at 10:41 PM (#5813016)
I'm pretty confident, actually, that New England could have/would have won the Super Bowl this year with Garoppolo, assuming he wouldn't have blown out his knee playing for New England.

It's actually been a while since the statistically best quarterback in a given season (or one who you can at least make a strong argument for) won the Super Bowl. You probably have to go back to Drew Brees in 2009 for that. (Aaron Rodgers won the Super Bowl in 2010, but didn't become the league's preeminent quarterback until 2011.) The last player to win the MVP and the Super Bowl in the same season was Kurt Warner in 1999.

   1314. SouthSideRyan Posted: February 07, 2019 at 08:26 PM (#5813517)
So, the XFL has Bob Stoops and now Pep Hamilton in as head coaches.
   1315. JJ1986 Posted: March 12, 2019 at 08:06 PM (#5822263)
Goddamnit.
   1316. Howie Menckel Posted: March 12, 2019 at 08:14 PM (#5822267)
Beckham to the Browns?
   1317. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: March 12, 2019 at 09:21 PM (#5822284)
is anyone going to mention that the bears' first move of the offseason was to sign a kicker, ostensibly to compete with cody parkey, who missed 11 kicks this year, whose name is literally blew it.
   1318. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: March 12, 2019 at 09:29 PM (#5822288)
There's only 3 posts in this thread in the last month and one of them mentioned it!
   1319. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: March 16, 2019 at 10:38 AM (#5823124)
DSPN: Rams' "Get-Back Coach" Has Been On Leave Since January After Being Charged With Sexual Battery
The strength and conditioning coach gained some fame for being in charge of preventing McVay from getting an unsportsmanlike conduct penalties for stepping too far onto the field. A video from NFL Films highlighted this part of his responsibilities in a tweet published six days following Rath’s arrest.


heckuva job there, goodell
   1320. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: April 22, 2019 at 09:16 AM (#5834064)
Another thing PFF has found that relates to the draft is that highly graded coverage players are just as important, and perhaps more so, than highly graded pass rushers. “It’s something that, at first, super offended my sensibilities,” Eager says. “It’s a product of how we watch the game. The broadcast angle doesn’t show the coverage guys. Team success is correlated with how well coverage is. Pass rush and coverage are correlated, but the direction arrow points more towards coverage helping pass rush more than the other way around.” He points out that the smartest team in the league, the New England Patriots, has spent big on two cornerbacks this decade, Stephon Gilmore and Darrelle Revis, and not on pass rushers. This also helps explain why the Chiefs, another smart franchise, have put more emphasis on building the back end of their defense than their pass rush.

the ringerer
   1321. JJ1986 Posted: April 26, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5835669)
When asked if it is possible that the No. 6 overall pick might sit for three years, Gettleman didn't budge.

"Who knows?" he said. "I might go out to my car and get hit. ... You don't know.
   1322. Dromedary pretzels, only half a dinar (CoB). Posted: April 26, 2019 at 05:23 PM (#5835734)
   1323. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: August 16, 2019 at 10:17 AM (#5871923)
should probably think about starting a 2019 thread (or just bookmarking the one that may or may not currently exist), but from the site owned by bill simmons that killed bryan collangelo:

A Denver Post analysis in 2017 studied NFL hires from 2007 to 2017 and found that 110 of the 147 offensive coordinator positions filled during that time went to a former NFL and/or college quarterbacks coach. Of those 110 jobs, five went to black coaches. Three of those five went to the same coach: Hue Jackson.
“We’re a powerful league. We’re capable of doing a lot of things, and I think we can fix this issue, but I don’t personally know how,” Leftwich tells me. He sighs. “Maybe one day I do have an answer on how to get this minority coaching situation figured out,” he says. But, “it’s not up to me to figure it out.”

“It’s not really about coaching, right?”
The most recent coaching cycle paints a bleak picture. Of 36 open positions at head coach, coordinator, or general manager, 30 of those hires were white candidates. According to the study, by February 2019, there were six fewer men of color serving as either an NFL head coach, defensive or offensive coordinator, or general manager than there were in February 2018.
researchers analyzed more than 1,200 NFL coaches at all levels from 1985 to 2012. They found that white assistant coaches were promoted at higher rates and made up over 70 percent of the hiring pool. There was “clear evidence of a racial disparity in promotion prospects for NFL assistant coaches that have persisted for over two decades despite a high-profile intervention designed to advance the candidacies of minority candidates,” the researchers wrote.
   1324. jmurph Posted: August 16, 2019 at 10:52 AM (#5871934)
I follow the NFL less closely these days, but teams seem to be in the midst of an obsession with the McVay/Shanahan boy-genius types, right? And- surprise!- we know which types of candidates generally get coded that way.
   1325. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 16, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5871944)
Teams are also in an obsession with OFFENSIVE genius types. Most of the well known black NFL coaches have been defensive coaches. Marvin Lewis, Lovie Smith, Art Shell, Romeo Crennel, Ray Rhodes, Tony Dungy, Herm Edwards, Leslie Frazier. (not Jim Caldwell or Dennis Green)

The two current black head coaches are both offensive guys (Lynn and Tomlin). The two who are now talked about as future head coaches are the two who are offensive coordinators (Eric Bienemy and Byron Leftwich). There are not many to choose from if you are limiting your search to offensive coaches, especially QB coaches. Just as the defense on NFL teams has become much more African-American than the offense, the coaching staff is the same way.

The Rooney Rule was a good start.
   1326. Tom Nawrocki Posted: August 16, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5871948)
Most of the well known black NFL coaches have been defensive coaches. Marvin Lewis, Lovie Smith, Art Shell, Romeo Crennel, Ray Rhodes, Tony Dungy, Herm Edwards, Leslie Frazier.


Art Shell was an offensive tackle and an OL coach before becoming a head coach. Todd Bowles and Vance Joseph, who were both relieved of their head coaching duties in the off-season, were also defensive coaches.
   1327. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: August 16, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5871955)
Most of the well known black NFL coaches have been defensive coaches
a significant portion of the article is actually about that:
They identified racial bias in lower-level coaching positions, such as receivers or defensive backs, and found that coaches of color are often hired into positions with inferior promotion prospects. Black and white coaches overseeing the same position don’t advance equally, either. Black coaches, the study found, are 114 percent less likely to become coordinators than their white counterparts.

   1328. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 16, 2019 at 12:08 PM (#5871959)
Sorry I was wrong about Art Shell. I knew he was a great lineman but I thought it was a defensive lineman.

Steve Wilks, who was relieved of his head coaching duties after one year in favor of Kliff Kingsbury: also defense.

Raheem Morris: offense.
   1329. Mike A Posted: August 16, 2019 at 06:40 PM (#5872028)
The two current black head coaches are both offensive guys (Lynn and Tomlin)
The Dolphins have a black (also Hispanic/Honduran) head coach in Brian Flores. He was a defensive coach with the Patriots before being hired this offseason, likely thanks to the Pats' dominant defensive performance in the SB.

Early Flores reports from Dolphin camp have been positive, though obviously my Fish are going to be terrible this year - Bill Belichick and Don Shula combined couldn't prevent that reality.
   1330. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: August 19, 2019 at 06:38 AM (#5872468)
Three of those five went to the same coach: Hue Jackson.

To be fair, if I had a 60% chance of getting a Hue Jackson, I wouldn't risk those odds either...

(Not to take away any of the seriousness of the actual underlying problem.)
   1331. . . . . . . Posted: August 19, 2019 at 07:42 AM (#5872471)
The Rooney Rule was a good start.


A bizarre conclusion to reach from a study that showed that, basically, it was a completely ineffective gesture that poo-ter principled any coaches that benefited from it into positions where they were doomed to fail.

This problem won’t be fixed with feel-good quotas primarily designed to defect criticism. It will require change throughout the pipeline. Forget being hired as NFL assistants - you need to have the smartest black players hired as graduate assistants and analysts at the college level. Hell, you need coaches pulling those guys aside when they are still playing and telling them they have coaching talent and then pushing them to pursue those jobs. That almost never happens, particularly when so many of the top college positions are in the South and at programs where the racism is covered by the barest fig leaf of equal opportunity.

Also, junior coaching positions are paid ####, require brutal hours, and lead to frequent moves. My understanding is that careers with lengthy periods of de facto indentured servitude effectively discriminate against people from disadvantaged backgrounds because they’re less likely to have family support for the first few years when they’re earning $20,000.

All the above being true, coaching is a crazy career path to pursue. An academically talented D-1 athlete of any race can contribute a lot more to society (and have much higher expected future earnings) by pursuing a career in business or pretty much any profession. I’m not such it’s such a tragedy if, say, the starting Guard from Notre Dame who attended law school as a senior actually became a lawyer rather than a clone of Brian Kelly.
   1332. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: August 25, 2019 at 05:42 AM (#5874265)
Well, so much for the Colts as a trendy dark horse pick.
   1333. puck Posted: August 25, 2019 at 09:06 AM (#5874268)
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