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Sunday, September 02, 2018

OT - 2018 NFL thread

Quarantine procedure in effect.

The Raiders and Bears have finalized a deal that will send pass-rusher Khalil Mack and a second-round pick to Chicago in exchange for four draft picks—including two first-rounders—a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Saturday.

The Bears gave up first-round picks in 2019 and 2020, a third-round pick in 2020 and a sixth-round pick in 2019, the source said. In addition to Mack, Chicago also gets a second-round pick in 2020 and a conditional fifth-round pick in 2020.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: September 02, 2018 at 08:07 AM | 1322 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, off-topic

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   401. McCoy Posted: January 07, 2019 at 11:21 AM (#5803069)
Flip
   402. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 07, 2019 at 11:35 AM (#5803073)
Launch angle is on the kicker.
True, but there are multiple ways of looking at this.

First, blocks are at least partially the responsibility of the line, which has to prevent penetration. The line can't just assume a kicker will always have a perfect launch angle.

Second, even if it were shown to be the case that Parkey has a big problem consistently kicking with a sufficient launch angle (no idea if this is the case, but lets say it is), and thus teams are reluctant to sign him, most fans are more likely to give him somewhat of a pass on a play like this.
   403. SoSH U at work Posted: January 07, 2019 at 11:44 AM (#5803078)
Second, even if it were shown to be the case that Parkey has a big problem consistently kicking with a sufficient launch angle (no idea if this is the case, but lets say it is), and thus teams are reluctant to sign him, most fans are more likely to give him somewhat of a pass on a play like this.


I imagine there's also more than a little luck involved. I'm sure a significant number of kicks that are good have a launch angle that wasn't sufficient to clear every upraised hand along the LOS; they just were fortunate to have been kicked where an upraised hand was.

   404. JL72 Posted: January 07, 2019 at 12:26 PM (#5803107)
I imagine there's also more than a little luck involved. I'm sure a significant number of kicks that are good have a launch angle that wasn't sufficient to clear every upraised hand along the LOS; they just were fortunate to have been kicked where an upraised hand was.


I think this is where I am at. Parkey definitely shoulders most of the blame (while not a chip shot, a 43-yard attempt would not seem to require a real low trajectory). But not all, unlike a clean kick which hits the uprights and misses.
   405. Master of the Horse Posted: January 07, 2019 at 12:29 PM (#5803108)
I think blaming the Chicago kicker for anything is kind of weird actually. Any kick outside of 35 yards in January in an open air stadium in the playoffs is not nearly the certainty like in the regular season. And Chicago has/had this killer defense and they ####### spit the bit late. And then the coach ###### up the clock. Like on that drive why didn't the Bears spike the ball, keep the timeout and try and get closer? Kicker blame is the worst type of blame.
   406. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 07, 2019 at 12:46 PM (#5803114)
Parkey kicked that ball well enough to make it, if the Bears' line had done its job. What percentage of kicks actually get blocked or tipped?
   407. Howie Menckel Posted: January 07, 2019 at 12:52 PM (#5803118)

Jeff Howe
‏Verified account @jeffphowe
20h20 hours ago

Tom Brady has beaten 22 QBs in the playoffs. Philip Rivers could be his first 3-time victim:

Gannon
Stewart
Warner
McNair
PManning 2x
Delhomme
Roethlisberger 2x
McNabb
Leftwich
Pennington
Rivers 2x
Garrard
Tebow
Flacco 2x
Schaub
Luck 2x
Wilson
Smith
Osweiler
Ryan
Mariota
Bortles
   408. Master of the Horse Posted: January 07, 2019 at 12:54 PM (#5803121)
   409. Nasty Nate Posted: January 07, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5803124)

Tom Brady has beaten 22 QBs in the playoffs. Philip Rivers could be his first 3-time victim:
And Luck could be his second!
   410. McCoy Posted: January 07, 2019 at 01:01 PM (#5803125)
How did the Bears line fail? Hester got no penetration and his feet were standing on the ground when he tipped the ball. What were they supposed to do? Cut off his hands? If they failed then every single O-line on every single kick fails.

As for January in Chicago. That would normally be true but on this particular day conditions were good for kicking.
   411. Master of the Horse Posted: January 07, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5803127)
   412. Howie Menckel Posted: January 07, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5803157)
if you're scoring at home (or even if you aren't!)


Tom Pelissero
‏Verified account @TomPelissero
5m5 minutes ago

The NFL has officially changed Cody Parkey's missed field goal yesterday to a blocked kick by Treyvon Hester.
   413. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 07, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5803184)
Hester got no penetration and his feet were standing on the ground when he tipped the ball. What were they supposed to do? Cut off his hands? If they failed then every single O-line on every single kick fails.
I don't think anything in these sentences is right. That being said, it seems very likely that Parkey would have been better served by using a higher launch angle.
   414. Howie Menckel Posted: January 07, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5803185)

Jeff Howe
‏Verified account @jeffphowe
6h6 hours ago

As the Patriots welcome the Chargers to Foxboro on Sunday, the forecast calls for 3 to 5 inches of snow and a high of 30 degrees.
   415. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: January 07, 2019 at 03:50 PM (#5803201)
tim hasselback had a great point on ESPN last night:

chicago's defense was:
#1 in points
#1 in yards per play
#1 in takeaways
#1 in net yards per passing attempt
#1 in passing defense
#3 in rushing defense
#4 in sacks
#4 in 3rd down defense
#6 in red zone defense

nick foles threw 40 passes against that.
the eagles had a 23/41 run/pass ratio.

i know the game has changed, but how many backup QBs in NFL history could win a road playoff game against the best defense in the NFL with a 23/41 run/pass ratio?
   416. Nasty Nate Posted: January 07, 2019 at 04:14 PM (#5803210)

i know the game has changed, but how many backup QBs in NFL history could win a road playoff game against the best defense in the NFL with a 23/41 run/pass ratio?
Never mind the ratio or best defense, the list of backup QBs to win road playoff games at all must be small. Doug Williams and Jeff Hostettler come to mind.
   417. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: January 07, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5803212)
oh, and 5 of the eagles 10 drives started inside of their own 20. only 1 of 10 drives started outside of their own 35 yard line.\
and the eagles averaged 2 yards per carry.
   418. Master of the Horse Posted: January 07, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5803215)
416--Does Dilfer count? He replaced Tony Banks mid season. I don't know if that qualifies by the backup standard being discussed.
   419. Nasty Nate Posted: January 07, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5803217)
416--Does Dilfer count? He replaced Tony Banks mid season. I don't know if that qualifies by the backup standard being discussed.
Well he won 2 road playoff games that year so sure he can count.
   420. Master of the Horse Posted: January 07, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5803220)
419--I wasn't sure if he qualified as a backup by the discussion because at that point he had been the starter for half the season. I thought maybe people were thinking of backups in terms of had not started the majority of the season and only had to play at the very end or maybe just the playoffs due to circumstance.
   421. SoSH U at work Posted: January 07, 2019 at 04:57 PM (#5803221)
Well he won 2 road playoff games that year so sure he can count.


Well then, does Brady count?
   422. Nasty Nate Posted: January 07, 2019 at 04:59 PM (#5803222)
419--I wasn't sure if he qualified as a backup by the discussion
I'm not sure either. But Foles started 6 games last year and 5 this year before yesterday so I think if he counts it should be a generous criteria.
   423. Nasty Nate Posted: January 07, 2019 at 05:00 PM (#5803223)
Well he won 2 road playoff games that year so sure he can count.



Well then, does Brady count?
Or instead for that game, Bledsoe?
   424. SoSH U at work Posted: January 07, 2019 at 05:04 PM (#5803225)
Or instead for that game, Bledsoe?


I completely forgot they dragged Bledsoe out of mothballs for that game.
   425. Nasty Nate Posted: January 07, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5803227)
I completely forgot they dragged Bledsoe out of mothballs for that game.
That metaphor suggests that he should be considered the backup at that point!
   426. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 07, 2019 at 05:21 PM (#5803231)
As the Patriots welcome the Chargers to Foxboro on Sunday, the forecast calls for 3 to 5 inches of snow and a high of 30 degrees.


This is one reason I am not as concerned about playing the Chargers as some appear to be (though the Patriots could certainly lose, don't get me wrong).

I can't seem to find out if the Chargers flew back to LA. If I were them, I would have made arrangements with a university such as Temple to use their facilities for this week and just stay out east, practicing in the cold weather, until Sunday's game.
   427. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 07, 2019 at 05:56 PM (#5803236)
As the Patriots welcome the Chargers to Foxboro on Sunday, the forecast calls for 3 to 5 inches of snow and a high of 30 degrees.

I was just thinking that I don't really recall any snow games so far this season (not that I watched every game). I was angrily shaking my fists at the clouds like an old man, and cursing global warming.
   428. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 07, 2019 at 06:44 PM (#5803241)
Brady started 14 games in 2001. Bledsoe went down in Week 2. Brady was definitely the starter and Bledsoe the backup that year.

Regardless, Bledsoe came off the bench for an injured Brady to torch top-seeded Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship that year, but Brady was the starter of record in that game. It took a pretty fair amount of balls for Belichick to ignore the media pressure and start Brady in the Super Bowl after that.

In 2000 Trent Dilfer started 8 games, so that one is more debatable. But Dilfer was the well entrenched starter for the 2000 Ravens by January, so I don't think he counts as a backup starting playoff games in the way that Hostetler (2 starts in 1990) or Doug Williams (2 starts for the injured Jay Schroeder in 1987) or Foles (3 starts last year, 5 this year, though 2 were the first two weeks before Wentz was ready) does.
   429. SoSH U at work Posted: January 07, 2019 at 06:50 PM (#5803243)
In 2000 Trent Dilfer started 8 games, so that one is more debatable. But Dilfer was the well entrenched starter for the 2000 Ravens by January, so I don't think he counts as a backup starting playoff games in the way that Hostetler (2 starts in 1990) or Doug Williams (2 starts for the injured Jay Schroeder in 1987) or Foles (3 starts last year, 5 this year, though 2 were the first two weeks before Wentz was ready) does.


I wouldn't count Dilfer, Brady or Jim Harbaugh, who started the final 12 games of the 1995 season for Indy, then won two road playoff games and was an almost-caught Hail Mary away from a third.

   430. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 07, 2019 at 07:05 PM (#5803245)
I sometimes wonder just how different the NFL of the past 20 years would have been, had that Hail Mary in the 1995 AFC Championship been caught. If the Steelers lose three home AFC Championship games in four years (1994, 1995, 1997) Bill Cowher probably gets fired after missing the playoffs three straight years, 1998-2000, and then the Steelers probably draft Chad Pennington instead of Plaxico Burress in 2000, and God only knows how different the rest of NFL history after that looks, had that been the case.
   431. SoSH U at work Posted: January 07, 2019 at 07:07 PM (#5803246)
Realistically, any player who was given the job when the starter was benched, rather than injured, shouldn't be considered a backup.

Vince Ferragamo is a closer call. He started the final five games for LA in 1979 after Haden broke his finger, then won two road games to get the Rams to the Super Bowl.
   432. SoSH U at work Posted: January 07, 2019 at 07:10 PM (#5803247)

I sometimes wonder just how different the NFL of the past 20 years would have been, had that Hail Mary in the 1995 AFC Championship been caught. If the Steelers lose three home AFC Championship games in four years (1994, 1995, 1997) Bill Cowher probably gets fired after missing the playoffs three straight years, 1998-2000, and then the Steelers probably draft Chad Pennington instead of Plaxico Burress in 2000, and God only knows how different the rest of NFL history after that looks, had that been the case.


And the Irsays can't fire Marchibroda coming off a Super Bowl appearance, which allows Lindy Infante to go be terrible elsewhere, while the Colts drift down into garden-variety awful rather than first-pick, Peyton Manning-lucky draft position awful.

   433. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 07, 2019 at 07:12 PM (#5803248)
Good point, that. The Colts probably still end up awful--just too late to land Peyton Manning, who presumably lands in San Diego. That means no Drew Brees in San Diego, nor Phil Rivers... on and on.

edit: Who am I kidding, the Chargers of that era would probably have picked Ryan Leaf #1 anyway.
   434. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 07, 2019 at 07:15 PM (#5803249)
Well, you guys are way too young to remember (except Andy), but Bobby Layne (Lions) got hurt during game 7 of the 1957 season and Tobin Rote took over--went 4-1 down the stretch, came back from a 27-7 deficit vs. YA Tittle and the 49ers in a Western conference playoff game then destroyed my Browns 59-14 in the NFL championship (the bastard)
   435. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: January 07, 2019 at 07:43 PM (#5803254)
419--I wasn't sure if he qualified as a backup by the discussion because at that point he had been the starter for half the season. I thought maybe people were thinking of backups in terms of had not started the majority of the season and only had to play at the very end or maybe just the playoffs due to circumstance.
or the record, the question i posed was more of a hypothetical:
any backup QB, for any team, at any time.
on the road.
in the playoffs.
vs. the #1 defense.
half of the drives start inside your own 20.
40 pass attempts
2:1 pass:run ratio.
-2 turnover margin.
win.

who the hell else does that?



the brady/bledsoe game in PIT comes close, except:
they had 14 points from special teams
+4 turnover margin
only 2 of their 11 drives started inside their own 20

   436. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 07, 2019 at 08:29 PM (#5803273)
Well, you guys are way too young to remember (except Andy), but Bobby Layne (Lions) got hurt during game 7 of the 1957 season and Tobin Rote took over--went 4-1 down the stretch, came back from a 27-7 deficit vs. YA Tittle and the 49ers in a Western conference playoff game then destroyed my Browns 59-14 in the NFL championship (the bastard)

I lived and died with that Lions team, and Layne is just about my favorite QB ever. But there's a footnote to Rote, in that he was an established starter with the Packers who'd led the NFL in completions just the year before and was arguably the best QB in the league. The Lions got him in a trade after the 1956 season after Layne had been seriously injured in the season finale. It wasn't as if he was a scrub or a no-name who took everyone by surprise.
   437. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 07, 2019 at 08:54 PM (#5803280)
Football Outsiders's Playoff Odds has it as almost exactly a pick'em between New Orleans/Kansas City or The Field to win the Super Bowl.

Intuitively that feels about right to me, although in my mind I'd have it more as 35% New Orleans/15% Kansas City whereas FO's system has it as 25/25. I'd happily bet Saints/Rams over the field to win the Super Bowl at even odds.
   438. McCoy Posted: January 07, 2019 at 10:03 PM (#5803303)
Re 413. How so?
   439. Nasty Nate Posted: January 07, 2019 at 10:31 PM (#5803313)
I'd happily bet Saints/Rams over the field to win the Super Bowl at even odds.
You'd get better than even at a sportsbook if i am reading things correctly.
   440. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 07, 2019 at 10:54 PM (#5803323)
You'd get better than even at a sportsbook if i am reading things correctly.

5/2 on the Saints, and 9/2 on the Rams. So if you bet say 40 on the Saints, and 20 on the rams, then that 60 total would give you 100 if the Saints won, and 90 if the Rams won.

Intuitively that feels about right to me, although in my mind I'd have it more as 35% New Orleans/15% Kansas City whereas FO's system has it as 25/25. I'd happily bet Saints/Rams over the field to win the Super Bowl at even odds

Part of the reason KC has better odds than the Rams and Saints I think, is because they only have to play one of Saints/Rams. Whereas the Saints and Rams likely have to play each other in the next round, and then go on to play KC in the SB.
   441. Nasty Nate Posted: January 09, 2019 at 10:10 AM (#5803620)
The forecast in NE in now snow-free for Sunday. It will be cold, but not extremely so. KC has a similar forecast.
   442. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 09, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5803807)
*shakes fists at clouds* Damn you global warming!
   443. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: January 11, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5804643)
has anyone mentioned that golden tate didn't know the play call on 4th and goal, when he caught the go ahead touchdown in the 4th quarter last week?

   444. McCoy Posted: January 11, 2019 at 12:26 PM (#5804650)
Hell, most passing plays that last longer than 3.5 seconds are at that point broken passing plays. A good chunk of football still comes down to backyard style football of making plays because of your physical abilities and smarts.
   445. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 11, 2019 at 12:44 PM (#5804660)
If I’m reading the probability correctly, there is ~3% chance that both conference championship games will be in Los Angeles. Which begs the question: if that happens will somebody buy tickets to both games and travel between the stadiums between games? Would they even be able to make it to the second game during the first quarter?
   446. Nasty Nate Posted: January 11, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5804671)
If I’m reading the probability correctly, there is ~3% chance that both conference championship games will be in Los Angeles. Which begs the question: if that happens will somebody buy tickets to both games and travel between the stadiums between games? Would they even be able to make it to the second game during the first quarter?
If the first game was brisk, someone could sprint out at the end of the game and if they had VIP parking passes at both venues (ensuring a quick exit from the first one), they could probably get to their seat at the second venue mid first quarter. This assumes that traffic around the second venue wouldn't be super bad because most people would already have arrived for tailgating.
   447. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 11, 2019 at 01:58 PM (#5804725)
[446] My experience with Dodger playoff games is that you should aim to arrive an hour early becuase if you’re only half an hour early, it will take 45 minutes to get into the stadium. I have no idea if the football games are as bad.
   448. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 12, 2019 at 07:58 PM (#5804971)
Do I get to take my victory lap for saying Chiefs -5.5 was stupidly low now?
   449. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 12, 2019 at 08:07 PM (#5804975)
I read this on Football Outsiders' preview this morning and it was pretty amazing, and made me feel good about putting money on Kansas City at -6. This is the complete list of quarterbacks Indianapolis played during their 10-1 run that rudely ended today:

Derek Anderson
Derek Carr
Blake Bortles
Marcus Mariota (gimpy edition)
Ryan Tannehill
Cody Kessler (this, you might be surprised to learn, was the one loss)
DeShaun Watson
Dak Prescott
Eli Manning's Chalk Outline
Blaine Gabbert
DeShaun Watson

Pat Mahomes is, err, maybe a slight cut above these guys.
   450. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 12, 2019 at 08:09 PM (#5804976)
I pointed out last week, that they hadn't played anyone worth a damn during their run, but got all sorts of pushback on that.
   451. JJ1986 Posted: January 12, 2019 at 08:15 PM (#5804978)
I don't even know what team Kessler is on right now. Jacksonville?
   452. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 12, 2019 at 08:17 PM (#5804979)
Yeah pretty sure the Colts lost to them 0-6 in a horrifically awful game, that should be considered a war crime.
   453. Howie Menckel Posted: January 12, 2019 at 08:45 PM (#5804981)
If I’m reading the probability correctly, there is ~3% chance that both conference championship games will be in Los Angeles.

the Giants and Jets play in the same stadium!
fortunately I think they have combined for one home playoff fame since MetLife Stadium opened almost a decade ago. before that, one year the talk was a Saturday game and Sunday game if need be (don't hold your breath).
   454. SoSH U at work Posted: January 12, 2019 at 10:12 PM (#5804989)
I pointed out last week, that they hadn't played anyone worth a damn during their run, but got all sorts of pushback on that.


No, you really didn't*. I pushed back on the idea that the Colts had played "a little better of late," which was fundamentally untrue. They did, in fact, play much better over the last 10 games than they did in the first six. Sure, as you noted, they didn't play a murderer's row when they rolled off 10 of their last 11 games entering today's game (I didn't disagree with that). Of course, they didn't run any kind of gauntlet in falling behind 1-5 (which you didn't really notice).

They played much, much better in the back half of the season than the first, which was all I ever claimed. But I agreed with your overall point that the Chiefs were much better.

* You can go back and look, but you got precisely zero pushback on the idea the Colts hadn't played a tough schedule.
   455. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 12, 2019 at 10:35 PM (#5804990)
Here's one for you: Indianapolis was the only team in the NFL this year that DVOA rated as above average (15th or better) in all three facets of the game: 10th on offense, 10th on defense, 12th on special teams.

Only the Chargers and Colts were top 10 on both offense and defense, granting 10th/10th makes that somewhat less impressive than it sounds. Then again, the Chargers, in keeping with their honored tradition dating back decades, were godawful on special teams (they ranked 25th this year, making this one of their better seasons in that regard.)

Indianapolis was a pretty good team playing a pretty soft schedule. They won 10; they likely would have won 11 or 12 but that it took them six weeks to figure out how to run an optimal offense with a new coach and the new, cannon-less Andrew Luck. (Except, sensible as that narrative sounds, it's totally false: it was their defense that was terrible the first six weeks before they figured something out. They gave up 42 points to the Jets!)

All in all, Indianapolis deserved their playoff spot (they were better than Pittsburgh or Tennessee), and it was no great surprise they reached the second round, and no great surprise they got blown out in the second round.

See also: Dallas Cowboys.

We didn't post picks, but I rolled with the favorites in all four games this weekend, laying the points (and put actual money on KC). Usually a terrible idea. It'll be nice if the Rams can be bothered to cover here.
   456. Howie Menckel Posted: January 12, 2019 at 11:13 PM (#5804991)
probably better to post all the picks before any of the games are played
   457. Moeball Posted: January 12, 2019 at 11:15 PM (#5804992)
Please forgive me if someone else has already asked this, but my question is this - KC scored at least 26 points in every game during the regular season. Is this a record? Not sure how to look this up in the play index but I don't recall there ever being a team never to be held under 25 points in a game during the season. Anyone know what the record is?
   458. Moeball Posted: January 12, 2019 at 11:16 PM (#5804993)
Duplicate post
   459. Moeball Posted: January 12, 2019 at 11:16 PM (#5804994)
Duplcate post
   460. Howie Menckel Posted: January 12, 2019 at 11:26 PM (#5804995)
the 1983 Redskins had a low of 23 points and the 1998 Vikings had a low of 24 points.

if anyone gave a crap about scoring at least 25 points, I suspect they would have closed the deal
:)
   461. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 12, 2019 at 11:36 PM (#5804997)
I think the record is the 1998 Vikings. They continued to do it in the playoffs as well, though they lost the NFC championship game 30-27.
   462. Howie Menckel Posted: January 13, 2019 at 12:37 AM (#5805005)
I wonder if the Cowboys will ever win anything until their coach learns game theory.

if you are down 30-15 with more than 2 minutes left and 3 timeouts and then you score a TD to make it 30-21, the proper play is to go for 2.

why? because that arms you with crucial knowledge. if you make the 2-point play, now you have the option of kicking deep because you are only down 7. if you miss, now you know you are down 2 scores and you know that not only do you have to try an onside kick, you have to score very quickly and try another one.

Garrett's route - beloved by announcers who want the game to linger - means you don't know how quickly you need to score. you're down 8, and maybe you score with 5 seconds left. you MIGHT tie it there, but if not - you kick yourself, because now you learn that you needed to score quicker (info you could have chosen to learn earlier).

did this change the winner? of course not. and the added WPA to my point is what, 1-2 points?

still, the karma gods never have seemed to be kind to stupid coaches.
   463. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 13, 2019 at 01:34 AM (#5805009)
if you are down 30-15 with more than 2 minutes left and 3 timeouts and then you score a TD to make it 30-21, the proper play is to go for 2.

why? because that arms you with crucial knowledge. if you make the 2-point play, now you have the option of kicking deep because you are only down 7. if you miss, now you know you are down 2 scores and you know that not only do you have to try an onside kick, you have to score very quickly and try another one.

Yeah, a lot of coaches do that. Drives me crazy. Don't get me started on the fact, that if you are down only 14, you should still go for 2 first in that spot.

But I honestly think at that point, not going for the onside kick is actually the bigger sin. The only reason it is even a question, is because they changed the rules, and success rate is way down.

But at that point, your only chance is to make the other team go 3 and out, if they get the ball. If you don't, they run out the clock either way. Whether they do that at their 25 or at midfield... an extra 25 yards of field position doesn't mean much, compared to the greater chance to actually get the ball back.
   464. SoSH U at work Posted: January 13, 2019 at 08:32 AM (#5805028)
Agreed that teams down 15 really should go for two first (though, in this case, it didn't really matter - they weren't getting the ball back another time had they failed on the first try), as well as the idea that if you're down 14, why not go for two. If you fail the first time, you still have a chance to tie with a second attempt. And if you succeed, a conventional PAT gives you the lead.

As for the onside kick, given the difficulty of executing one under the new rules, teams really have to think of alternate ways of executing it. I think the Colts' attempt to drill it straight at the wall of players is one possibility. Or possibly dump it over their heads and hope for a crazy bounce.

I did think both losing coaches used their timeouts better than most - Reich by stopping the clock three times at the end of the first half when the Chiefs were driving, giving them enough time to go downfield to get some points, and Garrett for calling TO with 2:07 then not calling it with 2:02. I think a lot of coaches would have botched those two situations.

   465. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 13, 2019 at 09:51 AM (#5805032)
Sean McVay seems more willing to use his timeouts early than most coaches, in order to take time to set up plays. This seems sub-optimal, but it's hard to argue with the results.

Does anybody else think he looks like Thom Yorke?
   466. Howie Menckel Posted: January 13, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5805034)
Sean McVay seems more willing to use his timeouts early than most coaches, in order to take time to set up plays. This seems sub-optimal, but it's hard to argue with the results.

I think it IS suboptimal, but I have only seen him do it when he is ahead and in more relevant spots. Eli Manning this year called a timeout in the third quarter of a close game this year I think to prevent a 3rd and 14 from becoming a 3rd and 19 due to delay of game. that is so dumb that of course the Giants later lost the game in part because they were short a timeout in the final minute.
   467. Nasty Nate Posted: January 13, 2019 at 10:47 AM (#5805038)
Do I get to take my victory lap for saying Chiefs -5.5 was stupidly low now?
I was able to get them at minus 4.5!
   468. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: January 13, 2019 at 11:52 AM (#5805046)
Speaking of Dallas coaching, the announcers praised Garrett for "getting a timeout in on this side of the two minute warning" (at 2:09 in Q4). This struck me as a waste -- you're only saving nine seconds, whereas if you waited and used it after the next play at say 1:50, you'd save up to 35 seconds.

This is either well worn territory, or I'm completely missing something, but I'm not sure which.
   469. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: January 13, 2019 at 12:13 PM (#5805048)
Missing something: a down. Once the clock was stopped before the 2 minute warning, the Rams had to run another play (2nd down). They ran the 3rd down play after the 2-minute warning. Your way, they'd be running the 2nd down play after the 2-minute warning, but would still have the extra time out. Thus 9 seconds are saved doing it the way the Cowboys did it
   470. JJ1986 Posted: January 13, 2019 at 12:16 PM (#5805049)
I think you're saving the length of the play by calling it at 2:09. If you call it too late (at like 2:05 or 2:04), though, the opposing team can run a passing play. Say it's 1st down.

Scenario 1: Timeout, running play, 2-min warning (stops clock). 2nd down at 2:00.
Scenario 2: 2-min warning (stops clock), running play, timeout. 2nd down at like 1:54.
   471. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: January 13, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5805055)
Missing something: a down. Once the clock was stopped before the 2 minute warning, the Rams had to run another play (2nd down). They ran the 3rd down play after the 2-minute warning. Your way, they'd be running the 2nd down play after the 2-minute warning, but would still have the extra time out. Thus 9 seconds are saved doing it the way the Cowboys did it
Ah right, gotcha. Thanks.
   472. Topher Posted: January 13, 2019 at 01:12 PM (#5805061)
Sean McVay seems more willing to use his timeouts early than most coaches, in order to take time to set up plays. This seems sub-optimal, but it's hard to argue with the results.

This was an interesting article from last week. It took a look at the results when teams take time outs early, using the Expected Points Added (EPA) metric. One of the takeaways from the article:

The Rams led the league in early timeouts with 29 total, but as it turns out, Sean McVay is no dummy. The Rams averaged .346 EPA on offensive plays following a timeout and over half a point added following a defensive timeout. They were, overall, the 6th most efficient team in football after a timeout, and unsurprisingly, the teams you think of as dominant on offense tended to be dominant after timeouts. Kansas City was the most impressive team, as they frequently attacked downfield after taking an early timeout (17 total, 16 on offense), adding nearly a point of EPA (.808) per play to lead the league.


   473. Moeball Posted: January 13, 2019 at 01:17 PM (#5805063)
So it looks like KC is breaking records then. Scoring at least 26 every game of the regular season and 31 in the first playoff game.

Also, I don't know which surprised me more - that KC's defense showed up or that they scored 4 TDs and none of them came on a Mahomes pass.
   474. JJ1986 Posted: January 13, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5805082)
Why does every single playoff broadcast of the Patriots include praising and repeatedly showing Robert Kraft? Other sports don't obsessively highlight owners during the games.
   475. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 13, 2019 at 02:24 PM (#5805083)
Jerry Jones usually gets a ton of face time on TV broadcasts, too. I think it's just because they are the most famous owners right now (and probably also on friendly terms with the TV executives).
   476. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 13, 2019 at 02:31 PM (#5805085)
Yeah, the profile of the owner obviously matters to how much broadcasts want to focus on them. Guys like Cuban or Ballmer will get a lot of focus in other sports. If you had a prime George Steinbrenner in MLB, they would never shut up about him.

But I think the other reason NFL broadcasts do it more, is because there are 8 home games (plus playoffs), and owners are virtually always there. In a 41 home game NBA or 81 home game MLB season they won't necessarily be in.
   477. A sad, lost penguin wandering the tundra, dreaming Posted: January 13, 2019 at 02:43 PM (#5805088)
This would be a mauling if it were a final score ... and it's only half.

Tom Brady has beaten 22 QBs in the playoffs. Philip Rivers could be his first 3-time victim:


I'm going out on a limb here ... yes.
   478. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 13, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5805090)
This would be a mauling if it were a final score ... and it's only half.


That's what I said at halftime of Super Bowl 51!

Seriously: I was hoping Kansas City would be a big favorite next weekend so I could take New England and the points. The Chargers are... not cooperating with that hope.
   479. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 13, 2019 at 02:54 PM (#5805091)
Seriously: I was hoping Kansas City would be a big favorite next weekend so I could take New England and the points. The Chargers are... not cooperating with that hope.

I was kind hoping the line would somehow drop to -3 or so, so I could take the Chiefs. So far looking good on that score!

ETA: Don't think it will drop quite that low, but you know, hoping.
   480. JJ1986 Posted: January 13, 2019 at 03:08 PM (#5805092)
What is the over/under for the AFC Championship game going to be? 70?
   481. McCoy Posted: January 13, 2019 at 03:17 PM (#5805093)
The whole taking a timeout to prevent a delay if game is stupid. Coaches should have a chart, if they don't already, like the Blackjack tables where they tell the coach when to call a timeout and went not to.

Hey, 3rd and 1? Sure call a timeout but why do that on 2nd and 9 or 3rd and 7? 90 seconds left? Sure.
   482. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 13, 2019 at 03:28 PM (#5805094)
What is the over/under for the AFC Championship game going to be? 70?


It was 54 for the KC-Indianapolis game yesterday, which was one of the highest ever for a playoff game. It went under. KC-New England might go a bit higher than that, but probably not much.
   483. Red Voodooin Posted: January 13, 2019 at 05:01 PM (#5805104)
I'll load up heavily on the under if it's ~54.
   484. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: January 13, 2019 at 05:11 PM (#5805107)
total yards:
PHI: 151
NO: 0
   485. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: January 13, 2019 at 06:15 PM (#5805112)
Seeing:
Chiefs -3
O/U 57.5
   486. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 13, 2019 at 07:21 PM (#5805130)
Tom Brady is only 2-4 in his road playoff career, 3-4 if you count the win in PIT behind Bledsoe. In addition to that game, he also won the AFC title game in Pit a few years later before winning his third Super Bowl. Otherwise, all of Brady’s SB appearances have come when he either got the #1 seed or he got the #2 seed and the #1 fell in the divisional round. If I bet on games, I’d take the Chiefs.
   487. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 13, 2019 at 07:31 PM (#5805133)
The Eagles’ secondary is a total embarrassment.
   488. Howie Menckel Posted: January 13, 2019 at 07:31 PM (#5805135)
Pats also are unbeaten at home this year; the road, not so much. and beat a Chargers team that was in Baltimore last week, went back home, and then back to the Northeast.

the question is whether Mahomes magic is > Reid un-mojo.
   489. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 13, 2019 at 07:40 PM (#5805138)
The Eagles running a play before the two minute warning was idiotic. They were close enough to the end zone that time wasn’t an issue. At that point they wanted to burn as much time as possible.
   490. puck Posted: January 13, 2019 at 07:45 PM (#5805139)
I flipped over to the Eagles-Saints game just to see what was up and immediately saw the ball go through the receiver's hands for an INT. Oops.
   491. SoSH U at work Posted: January 13, 2019 at 07:50 PM (#5805141)
The Eagles running a play before the two minute warning was idiotic. They were close enough to the end zone that time wasn’t an issue. At that point they wanted to burn as much time as possible.


They ran it through the two-minute warning. It wasn't really that significant.
   492. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 13, 2019 at 07:54 PM (#5805142)
total yards:
PHI: 151
NO: 0


Total yards after that point:

PHI: 99
NO: 420
   493. McCoy Posted: January 13, 2019 at 07:55 PM (#5805143)
How much money did Foles cost himself today?
   494. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 13, 2019 at 08:00 PM (#5805144)
The Eagles’ secondary is a total embarrassment.


They were playing their 4th through 6th top CBs until Rasul Douglas, their 4th CB was hurt. Then they were playing 5-7.

And they are down a starting safety.
   495. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 13, 2019 at 08:00 PM (#5805145)
How much money did Foles cost himself today?


Or how much money did Alshon Jeffrey cost Foles today?
   496. McCoy Posted: January 13, 2019 at 08:02 PM (#5805147)
No. Foles looked terrible virtually all game.
   497. Howie Menckel Posted: January 13, 2019 at 08:05 PM (#5805151)
Chiefs mainly opening at -3 in Vegas, but careful monitoring might find a -3.5.
O/U 57.5

Saints -3.5, O/U 57
   498. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 13, 2019 at 08:52 PM (#5805158)
No. Foles looked terrible virtually all game.


No, he wasn't so great. But boy, oh boy, if Jeffrey had caught that pass, and the Eagles scored, the narrative would be a lot different.
   499. McCoy Posted: January 13, 2019 at 08:59 PM (#5805161)
Unfortunately yes
   500. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 13, 2019 at 09:29 PM (#5805173)
[491] No, it was. Had Jeffrey made the catch, the clock would have stopped. Had they run the play after the 2 minute warning, they could have bled the clock down to 1:20 if they made a similar play. In that situation, the most important thing was for the Eagles to get a TD, but they also wanted to get the clock under 30 seconds first if they could.
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