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Sunday, August 25, 2019

OT - 2019 NFL thread

In a shocking development, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck announced his retirement from the NFL on Saturday night, saying constant injuries have taken away his love for the game.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: August 25, 2019 at 10:51 AM | 88 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, off-topic

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   1. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: August 24, 2019 at 11:09 PM (#5874243)
Quarantine procedure in effect.
   2. Brian C Posted: August 24, 2019 at 11:17 PM (#5874245)
He must have really taken that Colts preseason loss to the Bears tonight hard.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: August 24, 2019 at 11:19 PM (#5874246)
Judy Battista
@judybattista
·
4m
"It hurt," Luck said of hearing fans boo him. Brutal.
   4. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: August 24, 2019 at 11:33 PM (#5874248)
I’m actually glad for Luck’s sake that he’s taking some time away to let his body heal (I don’t believe for a second this retirement is permanent, though). There may never have been a more misnamed athlete.

We’re about to have a sudden, serious winnowing of good quarterbacks: Brady, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger will likely all retire within the next two years, Rodgers not far behind.
   5. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: August 24, 2019 at 11:50 PM (#5874251)
O.J. Simpson
@TheRealOJ32
Andrew Luck you couldn’t have shared that news before I drafted you an hour ago? #andrewluck
@Colts
oh the replies...
@madfriarskevin
Guess you’ll have to cut him.
@925mlbfan
These fantasy leagues are cutthroat
   6. Hot Wheeling American Posted: August 25, 2019 at 12:20 AM (#5874254)
Funny because OJ murdered people hehehe
   7. Lest we forget Posted: August 25, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5874281)
Good for him - smart move. It's a rare ambition that pivots in this way.

Left 500 mill on the table? Whatever; he's probably got 50 mill in the bank or more. At the point, it doesn't have to be about the money. It's about playing with his kids and being able to walk later in life. Just look at Joe Montana. Tough.


NFL. Ban it.
   8. kubiwan Posted: August 25, 2019 at 01:22 PM (#5874285)
Having #6 and the first line of #7 back-to-back is...something.
   9. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 08, 2019 at 05:18 PM (#5877600)
Ravens 59-10 win over the Dolphins today was the first 59-10 score in NFL history. And if Lamar Jackson had thrown just one more TD pass, he would've equaled his entire 2018 total.
   10. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: September 08, 2019 at 06:07 PM (#5877604)

Ravens 59-10 win over the Dolphins today was the first 59-10 score in NFL history.


Scorigami!
   11. Nasty Nate Posted: September 12, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5878760)
Can we all laugh at the Jets? They were up 16-0 on Sunday halfway through the 3rd. Since then, they gave up 17 unanswered points to lose at home to the Bills, their QB is out for the next game and maybe more with mono, and their star RB is getting an MRI and might be hurt. After their game Monday with the backup QB, they play Philadelphia, Dallas, and the Patriots twice over the following month.
   12. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: September 12, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5878780)
The first sports book in Indiana just opened and they had Paul Hornung make the first bet.
   13. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: September 13, 2019 at 12:20 AM (#5878840)
While that makes for a funny story it isn’t true. I made a bet last week, as did hundreds of others. The Governor made the first bet on sept. 1. I think Hornung made the first bet at this particular book that just opened at the Horseshoe near Louisville.
   14. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: September 13, 2019 at 01:36 AM (#5878844)
Thanks for the correction; I guess Indiana is more depraved than I gave it credit for.
   15. JJ1986 Posted: September 15, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5879357)
Does Fox not display a live ticker with scores from other games now?
   16. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 15, 2019 at 08:49 PM (#5879459)
that is an example of a challenge that should be denied on general principle.

you're challenging pass interference on a 5 yard out? GTFOOHWTBS.
   17. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 15, 2019 at 08:57 PM (#5879463)
that is an example of a challenge that should be denied on general principle.

you're challenging pass interference on a 5 yard out? GTFOOHWTBS.
now, that's not to say the play wasn't pass interference (it was), but games would last 5 hours each if that kind of call gets overturned.


that rule exists for 3rd downs, for the red zone, the 4th quarter and downfield throws; it exists for egregiously missed calls that have a clear and obvious impact on the outcome of the game. it does not exist for a 5-yard out on 2nd down in the first quarter.
   18. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 15, 2019 at 09:41 PM (#5879484)
Can we all laugh at the Jets?

You had stopped?
   19. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 15, 2019 at 09:57 PM (#5879493)
great half by the eagles. that's not even sarcasm. how in the #### are they only down 4?
   20. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 15, 2019 at 10:09 PM (#5879499)
shot:
Through two games, Mahomes has completed 55 of his 77 attempts (71.4 percent) for 821 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions. That’s a shade better than 10.6 yards per attempt on significantly higher volume: If Mahomes keeps up this pace, he’ll pass for more than 6,500 yards—the NFL record is 5,477. And while the touchdown numbers have dipped, he’s still on pace for 56 of them, which would pass his 50 from last season and set a new single-season record.

chaser:
The Chiefs are 2-0 again, with wins over the Jaguars and Raiders

link
   21. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 15, 2019 at 10:09 PM (#5879500)
oh, for ##### sake
   22. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 15, 2019 at 10:14 PM (#5879509)
@FieldYates
A reminder the Eagles can also play Josh McCown at WR.
https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1162734016841359362
   23. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 15, 2019 at 11:35 PM (#5879520)
great tackle
   24. JJ1986 Posted: September 16, 2019 at 08:30 PM (#5879800)
What the #### are the Jets wearing?
   25. Nasty Nate Posted: September 16, 2019 at 08:44 PM (#5879804)
What the #### are the Jets wearing?
They have new unis this year but apparently gave up on them after one week!?
   26. jmurph Posted: September 17, 2019 at 02:19 PM (#5880070)
ESPN covers a much discussed topic here through the years: Eli's Hall of Fame chances (to save you a click, the majority of writers polled consider it a no-brainer yes).
   27. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 23, 2019 at 09:36 PM (#5882395)
C'mon, Bears, let's shoot for 74-0. Records are made to be broken.
   28. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2019 at 01:03 AM (#5883550)
ESPN covers a much discussed topic here through the years: Eli's Hall of Fame chances (to save you a click, the majority of writers polled consider it a no-brainer yes).
his career is like a combination of brad johnson and trent dilfer.
   29. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2019 at 01:15 AM (#5883553)
anyway, regarding the packers challenging a pass interference non-call against the eagles tonight:

i'm 90% sure that was defensive pass interference, but i'm also 25% sure it was offensive pass interference. before the defender made any contact, the receiver extended his arm, and he grabbed the defender's shoulder pad.

in light of that, i think the review itself was a 50/50 call. the defensive pass interference was pretty blatant, but if you consider the receiver to have also committed pass interference (i might be biased since the eagles have been penalized for offensive pass interference 7 times in the last 2 games), i don't think you can overturn the non-call on review.


also:
regarding the eagles not challenging a (fairly) obvious incomplete pass late in the 4th quarter: good for doug pederson. it was the difference between 2nd and 10 and 2nd and 2, which in this game, was completely inconsequential. even though the challenge was likely to be successful, if it wasn't, it would have cost the eagles their last timeout.
   30. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: October 20, 2019 at 05:31 PM (#5892357)
NFL coaches are really, really stupid.
   31. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 20, 2019 at 06:41 PM (#5892366)
Lamar Jackson is fast becoming my favorite player ever.
   32. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: October 20, 2019 at 07:27 PM (#5892372)
Lot of empty seats in Seattle. So Seattle is just as give up as any other fanbase when their team is losing big late. Good to know for when some Seahawk fan wants to tell me about the 12th man.
   33. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 20, 2019 at 08:36 PM (#5892381)
ESPN covers a much discussed topic here through the years: Eli's Hall of Fame chances (to save you a click, the majority of writers polled consider it a no-brainer yes).


Great news for the burgeoning Jim Plunkett HoF bandwagon!

(Yeah yeah, two months late.)
   34. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: October 21, 2019 at 09:09 AM (#5892440)
I know it ended up not mattering, but I just can't get over Bill O'Brien's intentional safety to go from down 5 to down 7 (including associated time management apocalypse) yesterday... Going from 100% win percentage to 50% (if you force the needed 3-and-out, and score the touchdown, for maybe 15 yards of field position is literally the dumbest coaching decision I can imagine.
   35. bunyon Posted: October 21, 2019 at 09:59 AM (#5892458)
I saw the safety in the box and assumed it was a hold on a desperate heave on 4th and 28 from their own 2 or something.


So, I don't follow football all that closely but was watching a game with my father a couple of weeks ago. I spent the summer abroad and watched a lot of rugby. Dad complained about how automatic kicking has become and I was struck by an idea. I'll share it here because I need to be preparing for a meeting:

On XP and FG, the ball should not be brought to the hashmarks. Instead, the kick should be made from where it was downed (FG) or from the 15 straight back from where it crossed into the end zone, or, if a pass, where it was caught in the end zone (XP). So, you throw a fade to the back corner? The ball on the XP has to be snapped from the 15 on the sideline.

I'd also like to see a rule against subbing a kicker onto the field for a FG. If you want to try a FG, you have to try it with the guys on the field. When you know a FG is important, you could put your kicker in, run a play to center the ball and have a kicker kick. It might also be worthwhile to have a back or receiver learn to kick short FG.

To counter the downside to kicking of this plan, I'd prevent defense on kicks. Just a free kick like we saw in London.


Carry on. I hate when people do this to baseball (saunter in and opine without any skin in the game).
   36. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:15 PM (#5892643)
Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush
Pick    Tm            Player Pos Age  G  Cmp  Att  Yds   TD  Int  Att  Yds   TD
2      CHI Mitchell Trubisky  QB  23 31  588  924 6255   36   21  114  690    5
10     KAN   Patrick Mahomes  QB  21 24  562  856 7561   65   14   84  364    2
12     HOU    Deshaun Watson  QB  21 30  634  944 7816   58   22  170 1016   12 
Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Rush Rush Rush
Pick    Tm         Player Pos Age  G  Cmp  Att  Yds   TD  Int  Att  Yds   TD
1      CLE Baker Mayfield  QB  23 20  422  684 5221   32   25   47  166    1
3      NYJ    Sam Darnold  QB  21 15  290  487 3378   20   16   50  139    1
7      BUF     Josh Allen  QB  22 18  287  509 3398   17   19  134  821   11
10     ARI     Josh Rosen  QB  21 19  275  502 2845   12   19   26  151    0
32     BAL  Lamar Jackson  QB  21 23  235  385 2851   17    8  230 1271    8 


and this is what institutionalized white supremacy looks like.
   37. bunyon Posted: October 21, 2019 at 08:50 PM (#5892670)
So the jets aren’t good, I take it?
   38. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: October 21, 2019 at 10:21 PM (#5892682)
So the jets aren’t good, I take it?

Sam Darnold is playing like a third-string high school QB. Threw it up for grabs at least 3 times. Has 4 INT so far.

His best play so far has been when the center snapped one too high and he couldn't get up and grab it. The good play? He had the good sense to bat it out of the end zone as a defender was right behind him.

Just now another INT. They say it's his 4th, I think it's his 5th. 3rd quarter.
   39. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: October 21, 2019 at 10:23 PM (#5892684)
5th turnover, one was a strip sack fumble.

At least the color commentator isn't covering for him.
   40. Howie Menckel Posted: October 21, 2019 at 10:33 PM (#5892687)
Dad complained about how automatic kicking has become

a couple of years ago, after extra points reached the 99 pct accuracy rate, the NFL changed the yard line.

it used to be on the 2 1/2 yard line, so basically the equivalent of a 20-yard field goal.

now it's the equivalent of a 33-yard field goal. so they usually get made, but not close to 99 pct. it was a good change.

   41. Brian C Posted: October 21, 2019 at 11:49 PM (#5892696)
I like that change, too. It's right at the distance where a good kick will make it but a bad kick probably won't ... essentially right where the acceptable margin for error ought to be for a pro kicker. Used to be that it had to be a catastrophically awful kick - an outright shank, basically - in order to miss it.

I like the status quo in college, though. I mean, if they move it back five yards, guys will be missing kicks constantly. That's not what a PAT should be.
   42. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:03 PM (#5892910)
the patriots are 7-0.
patriots opponents are a combined 12-31.
5 of those 12 wins come via the bills.
the 5 teams that BUF has beaten are a combined 6-24.


here's a list of the QBs who have thrown a pass against new england this year:

Ben Roethlisberger
Sam Darnold
Daniel Jones
Josh Allen
Colt McCoy
Luke Falk
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Josh Rosen
Matt Barkley

here's a lede from the ringer, which is edited by patriots fan bill simmons:
The Patriots Defense Is Doing Things We’ve Never Seen Before
Forget about the quality of competition—New England’s seven-game stretch is frightening for any era. Just ask Sam Darnold.


this may just be my own opinion, but maybe we shouldn't forget about the quality of competition when that right there is the competition.
   43. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:05 PM (#5892913)
also, just for shits and giggles, here's a list of the QBs who've thrown a pass against BUF:

Eli Manning
Sam Darnold
Tom Brady
Andy Dalton
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Marcus Mariota
   44. jmurph Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5892915)
here's a lede from the ringer, which is edited by patriots fan bill simmons

LOL at Bill Simmons being an editor (he is not, obviously).

I agree with your actual point, they're obviously not as good as they've looked so far.
   45. Nasty Nate Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5892916)
Their next 6 opponents are Cleveland, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dallas, Houston, and Kansas City. It will be interesting to see how they do.
   46. jmurph Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5892917)
Also your next post would be a good time to underline perhaps a larger point, which is that there are a lot of terrible starting QBs right now!
   47. jmurph Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5892918)
Also, my god stiggles, The Ringer has like eleventeen Sixers fans on staff, you should love them!
   48. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5892920)
What is the logic behind the Fins starting Ryan Fitzpatrick, a 37-year-old journeyman, over a 22-year-old who was a Top Ten pick just last year?
   49. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:26 PM (#5892925)
I think it's the same as the 76ers Process. They want to lose all their games and also not take the chance that their player of the future gets injured.
   50. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:34 PM (#5892930)
Right now, Fitzpatrick is a better quarterback than Rosen. Three years from now, he certainly won't be - unless, of course, Miami never lets Rosen take the field between now and then.
   51. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: October 22, 2019 at 03:43 PM (#5892954)
He's a better quarterback, but the rest of the team is so bad that it may not hamper the tanking plan!
   52. Brian C Posted: October 22, 2019 at 05:57 PM (#5893027)
What is the logic behind the Fins starting Ryan Fitzpatrick, a 37-year-old journeyman, over a 22-year-old who was a Top Ten pick just last year?

Maybe they hate Fitzpatrick and want to see him killed. Like letting Serpico be first through the door.
   53. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 22, 2019 at 06:24 PM (#5893038)

this may just be my own opinion, but maybe we shouldn't forget about the quality of competition when that right there is the competition.


DVOA, which does incorporate quality of competition (D = Defense-adjusted), has the 2019 Patriots as the best defense since 1985 through 7 games and the third-best team since 1985 through 7 games.
   54. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: October 23, 2019 at 03:33 AM (#5893260)
What is the logic behind the Fins starting Ryan Fitzpatrick, a 37-year-old journeyman, over a 22-year-old who was a Top Ten pick just last year?

They are planning on picking a QB #1 overall in the draft, and don't want to risk a QB controversy over a guy getting hot for 3 games, that they have already written off?

Also, it is tough to tell a locker room, that is already griping loudly and vehemently, that you are intentionally starting the worse of your 2 QBs in the hopes that he might be better in a year or two, when the players hearing it figure they will be gone by then.
   55. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 23, 2019 at 09:58 AM (#5893303)
They are planning on picking a QB #1 overall in the draft, and don't want to risk a QB controversy over a guy getting hot for 3 games, that they have already written off?


That makes sense, although you wonder why the Dolphins traded a second-round pick for a guy they didn't even want to play. Then again, if the Dolphins knew what they were doing, they wouldn't be the worst team in NFL history.

Actually, I didn't realize till just now that Fitzpatrick opened the season as the Dolphins' starter, then was benched in the middle of that embarrassing Ravens game. What a mess.
   56. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 03, 2019 at 01:40 PM (#5898334)
i get why the fans are booing the eagles there, but that was just a great job by prince amukamara to blow that play up. if he had been half a step slower, that's a touchdown.


   57. puck Posted: November 03, 2019 at 03:47 PM (#5898354)
What is Miami doing?? They might win this game.
   58. Howie Menckel Posted: November 03, 2019 at 06:26 PM (#5898376)
The Dolphins are not that bad, really. well, not "have performed like they might go 0-16" bad.

The Bengals, on their bye, have benched Andy Daulton in favor of a rookie starting next week.

as the lone winless team remaining, it's their pick to lose. and knowing them....
   59. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 03, 2019 at 08:46 PM (#5898390)
Didn't realize we had an NFL thread still.

Scorigami's are still coming, but now it's hard to get one without the winning team scoring 50+ points.

So far this year:

Sep 08: BAL 59 - 10 MIA
Sep 29: CLE 40 - 25 BAL
Sep 29: TB 55 - 40 LAR
Oct 06: HOU 53 - 32 ATL
Oct 27: SF 51 - 13 CAR
   60. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 03, 2019 at 08:54 PM (#5898392)
New England doesn't look all that invincible tonight, but the game's still young.
   61. puck Posted: November 03, 2019 at 08:55 PM (#5898393)
Patriots are behind 10-0, and have had a mediocre offense. First loss tonight?
   62. puck Posted: November 03, 2019 at 09:01 PM (#5898396)
Another Baltimore TD! It's over.
   63. puck Posted: November 03, 2019 at 09:03 PM (#5898397)
Baltimore has 198 yards already, to 4 for New England.
   64. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 03, 2019 at 09:09 PM (#5898398)
By the way, that Baltimore win over Miami just missed being the most points scored by a team in the last 50+ years (62). Baltimore killed the last 8 minutes of the game with a 14-play drive that ended with a kneel down on 2nd down at the Miami 5, so if any of the plays had broken for a TD they would have had 66 (and could have kicked a FG for 62 easily of course). The record 72 point game was in 1966.
   65. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 03, 2019 at 09:11 PM (#5898399)
ESPN had BAL's win expectancy at 88% before the turnover. Now 72%. Definitely not over.
   66. puck Posted: November 03, 2019 at 09:22 PM (#5898403)
Ok, that was hyperbole. But NE's offense has not been great this season.
   67. Howie Menckel Posted: November 03, 2019 at 09:41 PM (#5898404)
The record 72 point game was in 1966.

not counting the postseason, including NFL title games
   68. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 03, 2019 at 10:12 PM (#5898411)
Been some brutally bad calls (and no-calls) all day today. Almost unwatchable.
   69. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 03, 2019 at 10:27 PM (#5898413)
Yards (approximate) since that early blitz by Baltimore: NE 287, BAL 28
   70. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 03, 2019 at 10:41 PM (#5898417)
Missed pick play on 4th down for an uncalled OPI is probably the ballgame. Not sure why I bothered staying up to watch the refs be the most important player.
   71. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 03, 2019 at 11:09 PM (#5898418)
Except for the fact that it's always fun to see NE lose, the game probably doesn't mean that much. NE is still big favorites to get top seed in the AFC and would have been a longshot for 16-0. even with a win today.
   72. JJ1986 Posted: November 10, 2019 at 07:09 PM (#5900242)
Good day for the Bengals.
   73. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 11, 2019 at 02:49 PM (#5900372)
In the sense that all the 1-7 teams won, and their only competition for the first pick is now the Deadskins. Not sure I trust anyone in that organisation to do anything useful with those picks though. If they understood the value of picks, they might have actually traded off some players before the deadline...

They also probably would have preferred to lose by a number of points, that the majority of their front office could calculate in their heads.
   74. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 11, 2019 at 11:59 PM (#5900505)
SF fill-in kicker gets a 49-yarder to send it to OT after a spotty last minute drive (including at least 3 missed picks). Seahawks march all the way down the field on the first OT drive, but Wilson throws an INT in the red zone, which is returned to the 50. Niners roll off 19 yards in 6 plays, the last 2 straight into the line one 2nd and 3rd and 2. Get a bad spot on 3rd down and end up a foot short. Rather than go for the foot on 4th and 1, they go for the 47-yarder for the win, and the fill-in kicker punches it practically over the left sideline--never even 10 yards in the air.

Not football of the highest quality.
   75. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:02 AM (#5900506)
Seattle 3 and out with no time outs left, so SF could have knelt down three times for the tie (and stayed undefeated!). 2 bad throws by Garropolo, and then a bomb slightly underthrown, and Seattle's got the ball back with plenty of time for a FG of their own.
   76. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:07 AM (#5900507)
Seattle gets 35 or so yards on 4 plays, including a 21-yard 3rd down scramble. SF ices the kicker but it doesn't help. 42 yarder for the last-second win.

I only saw the last 2 minutes of regulation and the OT. SF did not look good.
   77. Howie Menckel Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:19 AM (#5900509)
yes, this was another classic high-profile example of high-profile head coaches in a mega-billion dollar industry being really, really bad at math.

49ers were 8-0, and Seahawks 7-2.

so the Seahawks, in a critical division game, must win. a tie bodes very, very well for the 49ers.

4th and 2 at midfield with about 2 minutes left in the only OT and out of timeouts, and SEA punts away their shot a division title.

WAIT - SF4 says, "Hold my beer. we have no interest in that valuable tie (and btw everyone else in the NFC has 2 Ls or more) and instead will try to win because - well, we're really, really bad at math."

3 and out with passes leaves SEA with plenty of time for QB Russell Wilson to lead a game-winning FG drive because - well, what could go wrong?
   78. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:08 AM (#5900571)
I normally like KS, but he had a bit of a shocker. In general, the play calling, time management, and decision making was very sloppy in that game.

But I don't think any HC is playing for the tie there. Especially not when you are 8-0. So I think complaining about that is a bit silly.

Though I do think you have to run the ball at least one there to bleed some time, especially since they had managed quite a few decent runs for chunks late in that game. And the defense is going to be heavily playing the pass in that situation. At almost 2 mins, you have plenty of time to run the ball there. JG did not have a great game either, but try and help him out a little bit in that situation.

You are the team with the timeout, and you only need a FG. Punting the ball back with like 1:40 left there is inexcusable.
   79. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:13 AM (#5900573)
I wonder what the 1972 Dolphins would do if a team finished 15-0-1.
   80. jmurph Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5900574)
I wonder what the 1972 Dolphins would do if a team finished 15-0-1.

Presumably continue to publicly embarrass themselves.
   81. Hot Wheeling American Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5900577)
@surrender_index:
SEA decided to punt to SF from the SEA 45 on 4th & 2 with 1:57 remaining in OT while tied 24 to 24.

With a Surrender Index of 33.24, this punt ranks at the 99.2nd percentile of cowardly punts of the 2019 season, and the 98th percentile of all punts since 2009.
   82. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: November 12, 2019 at 11:48 AM (#5900583)
Pete Carroll never goes for it. Never. The Surrender Index (whatever that is) could be three times that, and he would still be punting.

I actually heard some interesting speculation, that it is because he went for it once in college (which I don't follow at all, so I have no idea), and it basically ended up costing him the national title game... so now he never ever goes for it. Ever...
   83. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:27 PM (#5900585)

I wonder what the 1972 Dolphins would do if a team finished 15-0-1.


We've already seen a team go 16-0 so I don't know why anybody brings up the 1972 Dolphins anymore. Shouldn't Tom Brady be the one opening a bottle of champagne?
   84. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 12, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5900586)
It was really terrible clock management all around. I forget what happened before that to get Seattle to the 4th and 2, but at that point punting with no timeouts has to give them a very low chance of winning (10%-15% maybe?), assuming SF plays rationally and burns some time off the clock with a run. Pretty high chance of a draw, but a decent chance of a loss as well. A first down pick up gives them something like a 75-80% chance of a win, pretty low chance of a draw, and almost no chance of a loss. The breakeven point must have been southwards of 30%.

Then SF going 3 and out without burning any clock with Seattle having no timeouts is inexcusable. Sure, go for the win but at least hedge a little for the draw. One running play and Seattle has to go just as far downfield in half the time. SF's chances of running the next 7 straight couldn't have been more than a few percent, and their division still needs to be won.

I also thought the FG form 4th and a foot was a bad call. Those plays are higher percentage than a 47-yd FG from a fill-in kicker. Make it and you burn even more clock so Seattle probably doesn't ever get a real chance to get the ball back, even if you somehow go backwards on the next 3 plays and have to punt. Seattle only had one time out left at that point and there were 3 minutes left (prior to SF being able to likely easily run half that time off) and would be starting deep in their own territory.
   85. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 12, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5900630)

I only saw the last 2 minutes of regulation and the OT. SF did not look good.


There appears to be a reason for that.
   86. Howie Menckel Posted: November 12, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5900633)
that "surrender index" presumably doesn't account for a 7-2 team punting to an 8-0 division rival WITH NO TIMEOUTS LEFT and INSIDE THE TW0-MINUTE WARNING.

I think it's the dumbest punt ever - and Carroll got away with it, unlike his stupid Super Bowl goal line play call.
   87. Hot Wheeling American Posted: November 12, 2019 at 05:09 PM (#5900664)
The Surrender Index has its roots in the brilliant The search for the saddest punt in the world. 54 minutes guaranteed to entertain even the 'Howie' of your group.
   88. Howie Menckel Posted: November 12, 2019 at 08:49 PM (#5900710)
it's a shame that for all that effort, the Surrender Index failed to take into account the W-L record of each team at the time.

none of those examples will ever beat a 7-2 team punting the ball away to an 8-0 divisional rival with under 2 minutes remaining and with no timeouts. a "Super Bowl championship probability index" gets triggered there - and not in a good way.

barring an equal amount of ineptitude by the opposing coach, you can't win the game - so your chances of winning the division, and maybe getting a first-round bye and two home playoff games is significantly diminished. a wild card team - even a good one - has to win three games on the road just to make it to the Super Bowl.

so when you have a chance to keep your divisional hopes alive, you take it.

unless you're Pete Carroll.

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