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Monday, December 12, 2016

OT - December 2016 NBA thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom are capable of submitting a monthly thread to avoid detracting from what this site is really about:  quoting old posts from Dilbert’s blog.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: December 12, 2016 at 04:35 PM | 2661 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   901. jmurph Posted: January 11, 2017 at 09:44 AM (#5381521)
Disappointing loss for the Celtics in Toronto last night. I had it penciled in as a loss prior to the game, but then they went ahead and led most of the way before falling apart in the 4th. It really highlighted their need for interior defense/rebounding; Valanciunas ate them alive on the glass.

Smart had a surprisingly good game, though.
   902. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:47 AM (#5381554)
I heard a radio interview with a local guy pretty connected with the Wolves. He claims that despite the issues this year and Thibs over-the-top court side demeanor the team is still completely on board with their coach. He is the same guy that broke stories last year about player dissatisfaction with Sam.

He also claimed that Rubio and Thibs are slowly coming to a mutual understanding, and expressed hope for better times ahead for them, and that despite his impatience Thibs was still taking the long view and not panicking over the disappointing results thus far.

Between that and the recent victory over the Mavs I have hopes that this year might be salvaged. And besides the Gophers men's BBall team is ranked for the first time in a long time so Minnesota basketball is back! (Well a little bit anyway)
   903. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 11, 2017 at 12:11 PM (#5381640)
Smart had a surprisingly good game, though

Smart has had a really good stretch. Some Celtics dude I follow on twitter observed that Bradley's absence for this Achilles strain might be the final nail in the coffin for the idea that the team could sign him to a team-friendly extension this offseason, which very well may be true. I don't think his shooting is going to stay nearly this hot going forward, but some improvement there combined with the real improvement he has made as a passer means he may well be close to an offensive asset now, and he was already an overall asset with his wrecking ball defense buoying his value despite mediocre offense. There was a very optimistic comparison I saw between his career so far and Kyle Lowry's through the same point; Smart is worse shooting overall but better from 3pt range, for whatever that is worth. I don't know that I think Smart will ever become Kyle Lowry, but I do feel pretty confident he'll be a pretty good player once he's fully developed.
   904. Tin Angel Posted: January 11, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5381730)
From the Daily News’ Frank Isola

In fact, Rose’s state of mind was such that for a brief time he talked about walking away from basketball for an extended period of time to clear his mind. That seems hard to believe since Rose is only 28 years old and could land a lucrative free agent contract this summer, something he talked about two years ago.


Man, Derrick Rose is only 28 years old.
   905. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:13 PM (#5381754)
Man, Derrick Rose is only 28 years old.


But he has an old soul :)

Seriously, though I admit my first reaction was "No way, is this from last decade or something?"
   906. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:24 PM (#5381759)
Would it be in Derrick Rose's best interests to retire? Obviously who knows what is in his head and what his goals are, but he's pretty clearly never going to be the player he was before his knee surgeries, and playing 5 more years as a subpar point guard is only going to make his peak harder for people to remember. If he wants to keep playing out of love of the game or desire to earn them checks no one could begrudge him the decision (except perhaps fans of any teams that overpay him this coming offseason, if there are teams foolish enough to do so) but if he's concerned about his reputation, am I wrong in thinking he'd do better to announce "I have realized I will never be the player I was, and don't want to go on as a garbage version of him," and walk away from the sport?
   907. JC in DC Posted: January 11, 2017 at 02:35 PM (#5381774)
My first reaction was, "Please, make it so!"
   908. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 11, 2017 at 04:29 PM (#5381921)
But he has an old soul :)
He has old knees.
   909. jmurph Posted: January 11, 2017 at 04:57 PM (#5381951)
but if he's concerned about his reputation

Someone didn't read his testimony from the civil trial.
   910. Tin Angel Posted: January 11, 2017 at 05:18 PM (#5381977)
Not sure how reliable these guys are, but...

@The_Step_Back
We're hearing that Derrick Rose would like to be paid $30 million a year for the next five seasons...
   911. Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist Posted: January 11, 2017 at 05:24 PM (#5381983)
I mean, he wants a max deal and still think he's a max player. He'll likely be surprised when he's not an All-Star. It's a mix of confidence and delusion, and it's likely helped him before. So it's not about being concerned with his reputation, as he likely has little to no self-awareness (for example, calling the Knicks a "superteam").

I'd still rather he were successful than not, but yeah, better the Knicks' problem than the Bulls.

---

Speaking of the Bulls, they nearly beat the Wizards last night in DC, but collapsed late. Had the Wiz lost, that would have gone on the short list of worst losses of the season. Supposedly Valentine's showboating (he had a good game) pissed off Wall.
   912. PASTE does not get put on waivers in August Posted: January 11, 2017 at 06:15 PM (#5382011)
I, too, would like to be paid $30 million a year for the next five seasons.
   913. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 11, 2017 at 07:12 PM (#5382037)
i wonder what kind of odds i could get on the sixers winning a playoff series this season? 2000:1?
   914. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 11, 2017 at 07:20 PM (#5382042)
Maybe Rose and Rondo can pay each other $30 million a year for the next five seasons.
   915. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 11, 2017 at 08:14 PM (#5382064)
I decided the other day that Rondo really ought to take his career earnings, buy himself a Filipino team, and play as player/coach until he is 50. That's the ideal way to have no one bother his control freak tendencies. Not sure Rose would do as well with something like that, but it'd be great if those two were rivals in such an endeavor for a while.
   916. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 11, 2017 at 09:25 PM (#5382091)
ugh, terrible win.
   917. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: January 11, 2017 at 09:33 PM (#5382092)
Oh, that was a fun win. Well done pissing that away Knicks.

   918. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 12, 2017 at 12:23 AM (#5382126)
joelembiid
My mf point GOD!!!! Big time shot @tjmcconnell...... I was trying to kill that boy lmao #TheProcess #KnicksTape #MyAdoptedChild
   919. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 12, 2017 at 12:37 AM (#5382127)
Look at Dario Saric on the left grinning like a big creep. I just realized he is the spitting image of Martin Shkreli. Trade him now.
   920. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 12, 2017 at 07:41 AM (#5382141)
Mazel Tov to T J McConnell. 60 years from now he can tell his grandchildren that he hit a buzzer beater over Carmelo Anthony to win an NBA game.

That's one more than any of us have.
   921. jmurph Posted: January 12, 2017 at 09:35 AM (#5382194)
I don't hate myself so I haven't seen much of the Wizards: why aren't they better? And more specifically, why aren't they better on offense? I understand that their bench is terrible but Wall/Beal/Porter/Morris/Gortat are all somewhere between very good and acceptable offensive players. Digging into their lineup stats at BBRef, their top two most played 5 man combinations are handily outscoring their opponents, I guess it all just falls apart when they go to the bench.
   922. MHS Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:02 AM (#5382218)
I thought Wall was terrible last night. Really bad. I saw his scoring ripped on twitter a bit (relative to Thomas) but I thought he looked really lazy and disinterested on defense. I haven't seen a lot of Wizard games, but that's not his reputation at all.

Also, it was nice seeing a good two way game from Jae Crowder last night. I thought he has been by far the Celtics most disappointing player despite his improvement in 3p%.


   923. jmurph Posted: January 12, 2017 at 11:12 AM (#5382279)
Interesting tidbit from twitter:
Isaiah Thomas is now your NBA leader in 4Q scoring.

Thomas: 334 4Q points in 34 games.
Westbrook: 327 4Q points in 34 games.


I still think smart teams will be able to exploit him defensively in a playoff series (Toronto did so the other night, getting him switched onto DeRozan, who promptly shot right over him), but it's still fun to watch.
   924. MHS Posted: January 12, 2017 at 12:11 PM (#5382351)

I still think smart teams will be able to exploit him defensively in a playoff series (Toronto did so the other night, getting him switched onto DeRozan, who promptly shot right over him), but it's still fun to watch.


A couple things.
DeRozan is a particularly tough match-up for IT I think. Tall guard, with a devastating mid range game. Those guys are just
going to kill IT, but frankly kill the Celtics because Bradley can't handle them really either. It's one of the reasons I think they should be shopping Bradley really aggressively. If a team has bought into AB as a legit shooter with his defensive reputation they should be able to get a haul for him. I have no proof but I think two short guard as starters really limits the Celtics potential.

With that said, I think IT's game has improved enough that even when he gets killed defensibly, they can still trade buckets because his offensive game has just gone to the next level.

With that said, it doesn't really work when someone is protecting the rim like Valanciunas in Tuesday's game. The guy literally had the best game of his career and if a big can play that good AND it IT is getting torched (not just beat) it won't work.


   925. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 12, 2017 at 04:28 PM (#5382574)
I don't hate myself so I haven't seen much of the Wizards: why aren't they better? And more specifically, why aren't they better on offense? I understand that their bench is terrible but Wall/Beal/Porter/Morris/Gortat are all somewhere between very good and acceptable offensive players. Digging into their lineup stats at BBRef, their top two most played 5 man combinations are handily outscoring their opponents, I guess it all just falls apart when they go to the bench.
I listen to the Mr. Tony podcast, so I get a lot of Wizards news. Their bench is awful, the worst in the league. The league's median bench Net Rating (0Rating-DRating) is a -2.4. The 3rd worst rating is Brooklyn (-6.4) and the 2nd worse is Philly (-8.7). Washington's bench is an even -10.0.

Also, as a team, they've only won 4 road games all season. I'm a John Wall fan and I thought they'd be better, too, but it's painfully obvious that Wall/Beal just doesn't work.
   926. No, TFTIO is the puppet Posted: January 12, 2017 at 04:33 PM (#5382579)
I, too, would like to be paid $30 million a year for the next five seasons.

I am confident that I am at least 1/10 the basketballist that PASTE is, so I will happily play the next five seasons for $3MM/yr.
   927. jmurph Posted: January 12, 2017 at 04:39 PM (#5382588)
I'm a John Wall fan and I thought they'd be better, too, but it's painfully obvious that Wall/Beal just doesn't work.

Even if it did work, it's plainly not enough. It's probably hard to put together a trade for Beal that makes a whole lot of sense, though. Big man defense, wing scoring/defense, picks? I don't know. If this improvement from Porter is legit, he looks like he can handle even more of the scoring load, but he's restricted this year and will surely be paid. Hope for Oubre to improve?

Compounding the problem is that all of these mediocrities- Nicholson, Mahinmi, Smith- are on long-term deals.
   928. covelli chris p Posted: January 12, 2017 at 06:49 PM (#5382663)
going to kill IT, but frankly kill the Celtics because Bradley can't handle them really either. It's one of the reasons I think they should be shopping Bradley really aggressively. If a team has bought into AB as a legit shooter with his defensive reputation they should be able to get a haul for him. I have no proof but I think two short guard as starters really limits the Celtics potential.
not a bad idea. though, i'm probably the biggest marcus smart fan around here
   929. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: January 12, 2017 at 07:04 PM (#5382671)
Even if it did work, it's plainly not enough. It's probably hard to put together a trade for Beal that makes a whole lot of sense, though. Big man defense, wing scoring/defense, picks? I don't know. If this improvement from Porter is legit, he looks like he can handle even more of the scoring load, but he's restricted this year and will surely be paid. Hope for Oubre to improve?

If Atlanta values Beal, then a Beal + future first should be enough for Millsap + Dunleavy, right?

I dunno that an analytics team will value Beal on that contract though. But I also have no idea what Atlanta has done over the last 2 years, it feels very un-Spurs.

Basically, I think some teams should make the move on Millsap.
   930. PASTE does not get put on waivers in August Posted: January 12, 2017 at 07:07 PM (#5382674)
I cannot imagine the Spurs signing Dwight Howard for big money under any circumstances. Is that just me being unimaginative?
   931. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: January 12, 2017 at 07:11 PM (#5382678)
I may be off base here, but it feels like TNT hitched their wagon way too much to Chicago and the Knicks.

And really, Eastern Conference teams in general. I feel like Memphis/SA/OKC/Houston should be leveraged more for the early game. The Eastern Conference should stop sucking if they want to be on more.

Like to me, I think Lakers/Spurs is a way more interesting matchup.
   932. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: January 12, 2017 at 07:22 PM (#5382681)
I cannot imagine the Spurs signing Dwight Howard for big money under any circumstances. Is that just me being unimaginative?

Hard to say. The Spurs have brought on SJax a couple of times.

I suspect they'd be reluctant to, but I think if they didn't have other options and felt they needed to do it to remain competitive, they'd do it.

   933. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: January 12, 2017 at 07:33 PM (#5382683)
Another thing I've been thinking.

Butler, Giannis, and Lowry are all in the top 5 in RPM (a flawed, but reasonable stat). Draymond and Kawhi are in the top 10, and Millsap, Curry, and Gobert are in the top 15. None of those guys were drafted particularly high. Several of them were outside the lottery, including Butler, Lowry, and Green. Even Westbrook, Paul, and Harden were drafted 4th, 4th, and 3rd but I don't think any of them were seen as "guys you tank for".

I don't have a good sense on how this compares to generations previous, but it seems like a lot of the best players are not the top, top picks like they were in the Magic/Jordan/Bird, as well as Hakeem/Robinson/Shaq/Duncan eras.

There's still LeBron and Durant, who are for my money the best two players and two guys that were thought of as "you tank for them". But I'd very much like it if we're moving more from that.
   934. PASTE does not get put on waivers in August Posted: January 12, 2017 at 07:44 PM (#5382688)
Might one reason for that (if there's any real effect and it's not just random talent distribution on the historical scale) be that the best players only go to college for one year now where they used to go for three or four? You get a much clearer picture of what kind of player a guy is at 22 than at 19.

(Jimmy Butler did play 4 years of college, so not applicable to him. And Curry played 3, right?)
   935. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 12, 2017 at 07:56 PM (#5382699)
I bet the one-and-done thing is part of it, and I suspect another is the growing weight of the three pointer and spread offense in the modern NBA. You can tell who is a good shooter for college, but it's unclear who will be a good NBA shooter, and which NBA-quality athletes can develop a good NBA 3pt shot. The basketball skills that make a dominant NCAA player don't map as directly to the skills that make a dominant NBA player as they used to, I think, which makes the draft more guesswork than it used to be. Potential is more important than ever, and harder to judge accurately.
   936. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 12, 2017 at 07:58 PM (#5382702)
Butler, Giannis, and Lowry are all in the top 5 in RPM (a flawed, but reasonable stat). Draymond and Kawhi are in the top 10, and Millsap, Curry, and Gobert are in the top 15.
curry doesn't really belong on that list since he's the only guy drafted in the top 10, but every other player on that list has 3 things in common: tenacious effort, great defense and no discernible weaknesses.

some guy named kaiser had a great series of articles that focused on players with that skillset leading up to the draft last year. this one is a great place to start
   937. Tin Angel Posted: January 12, 2017 at 08:11 PM (#5382706)
Yeesh, this George Karl interview with Zach Lowe...complaining about the disappearance of the "soul of the game" and "mental toughness."
   938. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:30 PM (#5382762)
Believe it or not, Timberwolves are playing good defense

Over the past month, the Timberwolves have allowed 104.6 points per 100 possessions – the sixth best mark in the NBA.

Yes, Minnesota, which couldn’t stop anybody from doing anything for the first 50 days of the season – sporting the 28th-ranked defense during that span – has a top 10 defense over the past 30.
   939. JC in DC Posted: January 12, 2017 at 10:46 PM (#5382766)
The Knicks should fill the roster with Eastern Europeans.
   940. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: January 12, 2017 at 11:02 PM (#5382777)
Believe it or not, Timberwolves are playing good defense

When TFTIO and went to watch them play Utah (and granted they were playing Utah), that wasn't the issue. I mean, they occasionally do some really stupid young team things, but the big thing I felt they struggled at was offense. Their bench struggles to score points. Wiggins and LaVine have some overlap, there isn't great passing on their team. Towns was floating around the 3 point line way too much.

I guess Thibs deserves the rest of the year because you generally don't get a great coach mid-year. But I'm fairly ready to cut bait on him. I don't think he's a long term guy period, and I don't think he's doing short term what I'd have been hoping for.
   941. maccoach57 Posted: January 12, 2017 at 11:27 PM (#5382784)
I have been pretty outspoken in questioning the Thibodeau hire, but I think you need to give him two full years and then see how things look, in terms of team D, development of core, and ancillary personnel moves. Again, all three of Minnesota's key guys are 21.
   942. jmurph Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:36 AM (#5382889)
If Atlanta values Beal, then a Beal + future first should be enough for Millsap + Dunleavy, right?

I imagine Washington would demand a lot more than that. The pick should be going the other way, probably. Millsap is obviously the more valuable player, but he's about to be a free agent. Dunleavy is fine but is essentially equivalent to freely available talent. I don't like Beal, but he's obviously capable of being a lead scorer and is still young, and that must have some value to a team like Atlanta.
   943. jmurph Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:46 AM (#5382898)
David Locke was on the True Hoop podcast with Arnovitz (yesterday, I think) and they got into the Jazz, Warriors, and other things. Locke laid out what I think might be a pretty compelling theory about the Warriors: it's so easy for Durant to get shots over anyone that their close and late offense is inevitably going to turn into OKC-style isolations for Durant. And the implication there is that might end up being a bad thing, as it gets Golden State away from what made them historically great.
   944. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: January 13, 2017 at 11:57 AM (#5382962)
David Locke was on the True Hoop podcast with Arnovitz (yesterday, I think) and they got into the Jazz, Warriors, and other things. Locke laid out what I think might be a pretty compelling theory about the Warriors: it's so easy for Durant to get shots over anyone that their close and late offense is inevitably going to turn into OKC-style isolations for Durant. And the implication there is that might end up being a bad thing, as it gets Golden State away from what made them historically great.

Not sure I buy it. I don't know if it's appropriate to compare Offensive Ratings across years, but Golden State's is higher this year than last despite Curry shooting way worse.

I think a lot of their late game stuff in the past was Curry dribbling around and then launching a 3. I think Durant will help their late game offense a lot, because he's so capable of getting to the line.
   945. Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist Posted: January 13, 2017 at 12:01 PM (#5382964)
Like to me, I think Lakers/Spurs is a way more interesting matchup.

I don't disagree with the rest of your post, but a close, but crappy Bulls/Knicks game* is better (from the league and TNT's perspective) than an obviously predictable (maybe not 40 point blowout predictable) Spurs/Lakers game.

*It's not TNT's fault the best player for each team was out hurt/sick.

Speaking of blowouts, what in the holy #### happened in that Nuggets/Pacers game? I know it was in London, but seriously, WTF?
   946. MHS Posted: January 13, 2017 at 12:01 PM (#5382965)
Even if it did work, it's plainly not enough


This is something I don't really understand. Beal and Wall are good. Really good, at least when healthy but the teams needs way more. I don't understand why a team like the Wizards would cap out when clearly they weren't good enough. This isn't something that just the Wizards do to, I mean Portland has done it as well, Charlotte etc.. These teams need to be maintaining flexibility.

   947. Athletic Supporter wants to move your money around Posted: January 13, 2017 at 12:28 PM (#5382988)
I don't disagree with the rest of your post, but a close, but crappy Bulls/Knicks game* is better (from the league and TNT's perspective) than an obviously predictable (maybe not 40 point blowout predictable) Spurs/Lakers game.

*It's not TNT's fault the best player for each team was out hurt/sick.

Speaking of blowouts, what in the holy #### happened in that Nuggets/Pacers game? I know it was in London, but seriously, WTF?


When was the last time multiple teams scored 130+ in a single day?
   948. jmurph Posted: January 13, 2017 at 12:28 PM (#5382989)
I don't understand why a team like the Wizards would cap out when clearly they weren't good enough. This isn't something that just the Wizards do to, I mean Portland has done it as well, Charlotte etc.. These teams need to be maintaining flexibility.

I think this is an important but complicated issue. There's some market concerns for teams like Charlotte: whether true or not, they feel like they have to maintain their status as a playoff team, even though they're not even on the true fringes of actual contention, or else their fans will abandon them. There's also a matter of "well we have these guys, who are good, and they actually want to play for us, so let's keep them." Like with guys like Zeller and Batum. I think those are defensible reasons, but like you point out, they're locking themselves into never actually being good enough to win.

The Portland case we discussed a lot at the time- they just made bad decisions, there's no other way around it.

Washington: I think Grunfeld is just trying to keep his job? He hasn't earned it, obviously.
   949. jmurph Posted: January 13, 2017 at 12:31 PM (#5382991)
I don't disagree with the rest of your post, but a close, but crappy Bulls/Knicks game* is better (from the league and TNT's perspective) than an obviously predictable (maybe not 40 point blowout predictable) Spurs/Lakers game.

Seems to me like the exact answer here is that New York and Chicago are huge cities and their teams have lots of fans due to past success (in Chicago's case) and... well mostly just for being from a huge area (in New York's case). Because otherwise no one should have thought this was going to be a good game between good teams, even several months ago when the schedule was made.
   950. madvillain Posted: January 13, 2017 at 01:16 PM (#5383009)
and which NBA-quality athletes can develop a good NBA 3pt shot. The basketball skills that make a dominant NCAA player don't map as directly to the skills that make a dominant NBA player as they used to, I think, which makes the draft more guesswork than it used to be. Potential is more important than ever, and harder to judge accurately.


I've been saying this as well on RealGM, wrt to McBuckets especially. Trey Burke also disabused me of the notion that dominant scoring in college, without elite or very good overall athleticism is almost impossible to project into the NBA. Burke and Doug aren't awful athletes, they are probably in the bottom 1/3 of NBA players overall at their position, but they aren't in the bottom 1/5 or bottom 1/8 and yet both have had incredible difficulty translating their efficient college scoring into the NBA.


Because otherwise no one should have thought this was going to be a good game between good teams, even several months ago when the schedule was made.


To be fair, both teams were missing their best player, a couple of top 25 NBA players, that took away quite a bit of the fun factor. And this game was scheduled because 1) it's Bulls/Knicks and 2) Joakim and Rose go against their long time old club.

But, it was a cripplefight of epic proportions. Old man Wade trying to take over Jimmy's role, Rondo trying to do...something, McDermott running around to no end, MCW chucking up brick after brick...Carmelo expanding his legend by going 1v1 vs Zipser, Joakim Noah bum slaying Bobby Portis...

Actually, one highly entertaining thing did come out of last night's came and that was Taj's quote postgame: "He [Noah] got all the same looks he does that he never makes but the basketball gods were on his side tonight and they went in".

Ha, shots fired. He's right though, it's obvious that Noah was extra jacked for this one and it's also obvious he'll be back to finishing 30% of his shots from 2-5 feet soon enough.
   951. maccoach57 Posted: January 13, 2017 at 01:17 PM (#5383011)
Chicago/New York/LA: I assume that TNT's numbers show that it is still worth it to them in terms of clicks/eyeballs/ad revenue to put the big-market teams on instead of putting Memphis and Utah on more. That seems kind of counter-intuitive, in that digital media have changed consumption, but TNT is still TV. Also, of course, the people on this thread every day aren't casual fans who might flip on TNT to catch Knicks/Bulls and watch 1-2 NBA games a week. The Lakers are on "too much" though, and while I thought they would lose by 15 rather than 40, I didn't see Lakers/Spurs in SA as a good game to put on national TV.

Wizards/Hornets: Grunfeld just isn't that great at his job, but it is important to remember that Washington was supposedly trying to gear up to get Durant to come home, so I think they figured that spending money to make the team OK without him while having enough money to add one max guy was the way to go. What happened of course was that Durant didn't even talk to them. As to Charlotte, 948 makes good points, and I would add, as I said earlier, that I think part of that is Michael Jordan. I think Jordan absolutely does not want to own a team that sucks for five years and plays a bunch of 20-year-olds in hopes of becoming awesome. That is probably short-sighted, but I think that is how Jordan sees it, at least for now.

   952. Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist Posted: January 13, 2017 at 01:35 PM (#5383021)
I've been saying this as well on RealGM, wrt to McBuckets especially. Trey Burke also disabused me of the notion that dominant scoring in college, without elite or very good overall athleticism is almost impossible to project into the NBA. Burke and Doug aren't awful athletes, they are probably in the bottom 1/3 of NBA players overall at their position, but they aren't in the bottom 1/5 or bottom 1/8 and yet both have had incredible difficulty translating their efficient college scoring into the NBA.

It's nice that you came around on Burke's NBA lack of career, but I'm sorry, he wasn't a dominant scorer in college. Also lack of elite athleticism isn't the only reason he wasn't going to project as a good NBA player. Lastly, Burke's college efficiency wasn't in the same league as McDermott's.
   953. covelli chris p Posted: January 13, 2017 at 01:37 PM (#5383022)
Also, of course, the people on this thread every day aren't casual fans who might flip on TNT to catch Knicks/Bulls and watch 1-2 NBA games a week.
ya. and the growth of streaming packages that let you watch any game you want, make it even less worthwhile to cater to nutters like us.
   954. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: January 13, 2017 at 01:42 PM (#5383025)
ya. and the growth of streaming packages that let you watch any game you want, make it even less worthwhile to cater to nutters like us.

True. I get why they do it, but man a bunch of the early Thursday games have been brutal. I do think there are some teams they could show more - Houston, San Antonio, and OKC seem like decent TV draws. But, ultimately a lot of this complaint is the grumpy old man in me where in the lineup the good game is at 9:30, which means for when I want to have the TV off and be getting ready for bed, I only get the first quarter or so of the game.
   955. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 13, 2017 at 01:48 PM (#5383029)
@bball_ref
Nikola Jokic has the highest ORtg since 1973, the first year we can calculate it, by a 1st or 2nd year player http://bkref.com/tiny/GoJ1S


I swear every game he has at least one or two new amazing highlight passes.

But I'm happier that as good as he's been, Gobert has been so good that there's no way I would do that fake trade on BTF I agreed to during the offseason.
   956. MHS Posted: January 13, 2017 at 01:48 PM (#5383031)
ya. and the growth of streaming packages that let you watch any game you want, make it even less worthwhile to cater to nutters like us.


Except when you travel for a living and SPG hotels don't offer NBA channel :(

   957. madvillain Posted: January 13, 2017 at 01:58 PM (#5383035)
It's nice that you came around on Burke's NBA lack of career, but I'm sorry, he wasn't a dominant scorer in college. Also lack of elite athleticism isn't the only reason he wasn't going to project as a good NBA player. Lastly, Burke's college efficiency wasn't in the same league as McDermott's.


Right, you knew something nobody else did, which is why Burke was a lotto pick and you're just a guy on a message board. I'm willing to admit a mistake; I watched a lot of Burke in college, including his 23 points against a KU team in the tourney that willed UM to a win, if he wasn't a dominant scorer he was a very good scorer and a dominant overall player. Quite a few people, including David Thorpe, thought he was the surest bet in the draft. Doug shot more then Burke (naturally as Burke was also an excellent overall PG), and was elite, not just good, from 3 point range but their overall offensive impact was similar. Their offensive ratings in the advanced list on B-Ref are almost identical, except Burke was 2 years younger and a soph, not a senior.

   958. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 13, 2017 at 02:02 PM (#5383037)
Except when you travel for a living and SPG hotels don't offer NBA channel :(
You're free and clear (well, it's not free) if you buy the league package, and just watch online. OR you can see about finding an overseas feed to stream, not that I endorse such an action, nor would I ever do anything like that myself. Never.
   959. JC in DC Posted: January 13, 2017 at 02:16 PM (#5383046)
Be nice, MV. That was, after all, the 2013 draft. I might have cracked the lottery that year.
   960. jmurph Posted: January 13, 2017 at 02:18 PM (#5383049)
I also had Burke as a bust heading into the draft, but then again I'm nearly always wrong when projecting players, so this isn't a great point in anyone's defense. He just seemed (and is) small, not athletic, and not good enough at anything else to overcome those things.

In the minus column, I think right here in this very thread I declared that Blake Griffin's upside was Kenyon Martin, so hey you win some you lose some.
   961. MHS Posted: January 13, 2017 at 02:22 PM (#5383052)
You're free and clear (well, it's not free) if you buy the league package


league pass blacks out games on the nba station.
   962. madvillain Posted: January 13, 2017 at 02:27 PM (#5383056)
Be nice, MV. That was, after all, the 2013 draft. I might have cracked the lottery that year.


I just find it funny how Moses argues with me, he never cites any numbers just critiques me for making predictions (like Burke would be star) that turn out wrong. Gee, predicting is hard, go figure. That's why Burke went #9, even if it was a bad draft. Hell, FWIW Doug went 12th in what was supposed to an absolute stacked draft and he still sucks.
   963. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 13, 2017 at 03:18 PM (#5383074)
league pass blacks out games on the nba station.
It sure does, which is why VPN apps exist. Not that I endorse using them to get around location blackouts. That would also be wrong.
   964. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 13, 2017 at 03:33 PM (#5383078)
it's painfully obvious that Wall/Beal just doesn't work

I don't think that's true at all. They might not get along personally, but they're just fine on the court. Wall/Beal/Porter is a really good young core that's outscoring opponents by 9 points per 100 possessions. That lineup combination has been on the floor for half of the team's total minutes, making it all the more remarkable that the Wizards have a negative point differential. The rest of the roster is just so bad.

The Wizards need to go back in time and stop themselves from spending all their other resources on insignificant big men. They've used up half the cap on bigs, none of whom are particularly good or young. They even gave up a lottery pick in exchange for disgruntled Markieff Morris, after trading a mid 1st for Gortat. As it is, they need to hope some other team massively overvalues traditional centers and power forwards, so that they can dig out of this hole they've put themselves in and give Wall/Beal/Porter some help.
   965. covelli chris p Posted: January 13, 2017 at 04:05 PM (#5383093)
league pass blacks out games on the nba station.
not the international package. though, you do have to set up a vpn for that ...
   966. Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist Posted: January 13, 2017 at 04:17 PM (#5383104)
Right, you knew something nobody else did, which is why Burke was a lotto pick and you're just a guy on a message board. I'm willing to admit a mistake; I watched a lot of Burke in college, including his 23 points against a KU team in the tourney that willed UM to a win, if he wasn't a dominant scorer he was a very good scorer and a dominant overall player. Quite a few people, including David Thorpe, thought he was the surest bet in the draft. Doug shot more then Burke (naturally as Burke was also an excellent overall PG), and was elite, not just good, from 3 point range but their overall offensive impact was similar. Their offensive ratings in the advanced list on B-Ref are almost identical, except Burke was 2 years younger and a soph, not a senior.

Whoa, that wasn't the reaction I was expecting.

Yeah, the Burke thing has been a running thing here - and not just me. I argued with you at the time, especially since you seemed to think his floor was multiple All-Stars (that was my hang up, thinking there just wasn't like going to be a spot for him since the West was so stacked). I go out on a limb more than my share with predictions, and usually with disastrous results, and I'm happy to own up to that. You're not going to find me making many predictions about what college players are or aren't going to pan out, mostly because I don't follow college ball (it's boring, and inferior bball, and my alma mater sucks ass).

Here, I just thought you were still making the same mistake that led you to think Burke was going to be a good pro in the first place, and not even sure how Dougie and him are comparable or similarly instructive. My comment about dominant scoring and efficiency is because that really was the one and only skill Doug appeared to have in college - and yeah, he sucks, his floor and ceiling in the NBA are low, and always have been. I was merely commenting on just the scoring* (and shooting** or efficiency***), which was literally the one thing Doug could do; Burke was probably a better player in college, but that Doug likely wasn't going to be good because he didn't have enough skills (even if he might be elite at one) while Burke didn't have the physical size or tools plus lacked even that one elite skill.

*P/40 DM: 20.5, 28.7, 29.3, 31.6; TB: 16.4, 21.1
**TS%/eFG% (pick your preference), career: DM .652/616; TB: .556/.519; Dougie's freshman year was even better than that (.607/.581)
***PER, despite all it's flaws, it was what I looked at here; Doug's 3 straight 32 PERs pretty good for a guy who did one thing only.

I just find it funny how Moses argues with me, he never cites any numbers just critiques me for making predictions (like Burke would be star) that turn out wrong. Gee, predicting is hard, go figure. That's why Burke went #9, even if it was a bad draft. Hell, FWIW Doug went 12th in what was supposed to an absolute stacked draft and he still sucks.

That's unfair. We both HATED that Doug pick, and even moreso the trade. It was garbage, and that wasn't a controversial opinion.
   967. jmurph Posted: January 13, 2017 at 04:29 PM (#5383114)
I don't think that's true at all. They might not get along personally, but they're just fine on the court. Wall/Beal/Porter is a really good young core that's outscoring opponents by 9 points per 100 possessions. That lineup combination has been on the floor for half of the team's total minutes, making it all the more remarkable that the Wizards have a negative point differential. The rest of the roster is just so bad.

Granting all of this, that trio is going to cost them like 70 million per season starting next year, and will still need to be supplemented with size/rim protection, depth, etc. The advanced numbers currently prefer Porter to Beal, though that's clearly not the full picture, as Beal has demonstrated (thus far this year, at least) the ability to be a high usage scorer. I'm just not sure it's going to be the best allocation of resources given that all of those guys seem destined to be good but maybe not great.
   968. billyshears Posted: January 13, 2017 at 05:06 PM (#5383133)
Granting all of this, that trio is going to cost them like 70 million per season starting next year, and will still need to be supplemented with size/rim protection, depth, etc. The advanced numbers currently prefer Porter to Beal, though that's clearly not the full picture, as Beal has demonstrated (thus far this year, at least) the ability to be a high usage scorer. I'm just not sure it's going to be the best allocation of resources given that all of those guys seem destined to be good but maybe not great.


Given that each of those guys are young and good, I think you have to commit to them and hope that there is significant improvement left, whether that's by any one player making the leap or by incremental improvement by all of them. I think there's a better chance of that approach resulting in a legitimate contender than letting somebody walk to maintain flexibility to look for a better fit that might never come.
   969. jmurph Posted: January 13, 2017 at 05:19 PM (#5383140)
Given that each of those guys are young and good, I think you have to commit to them and hope that there is significant improvement left, whether that's by any one player making the leap or by incremental improvement by all of them. I think there's a better chance of that approach resulting in a legitimate contender than letting somebody walk to maintain flexibility to look for a better fit that might never come.

I don't know. The recent path to success generally involves employing LeBron, being the Spurs, making major trades (Boston, Lakers), or a combination of those things (Cleveland). I guess Golden State arguably fits in the "let them develop" side of things, but even that was kickstarted with a relatively controversial deal to get Bogut and then the Igoudala deal.

With Washington specifically, I lived in DC throughout the Arenas/Butler/Jamison years, and damn if this current go-round doesn't remind me a lot of that.
   970. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 13, 2017 at 05:49 PM (#5383148)
the bulls are 30th in 3P%.
   971. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 13, 2017 at 06:50 PM (#5383156)
They'll always have opening night though.
   972. MHS Posted: January 13, 2017 at 08:10 PM (#5383171)
, I think you have to commit to them and hope that there is significant improvement left

I think that's right. Which why using up all their other resources is so irresponsible.
   973. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 13, 2017 at 09:51 PM (#5383189)
If it weren't for the injury concerns, I think I would rather have Embiid than any other young player. Even with those concerns (and I think they're still considerable), there aren't many people I would trade him for at this point.
   974. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:03 PM (#5383195)
They'll always have opening night though.

The first Bulls game of the Rondo era was like the first Eagles game of the Chip Kelly era.
   975. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:13 PM (#5383198)
Joel Embiid is so ####### good. I don't know how it's possible he just started playing in 2011.
   976. jmurph Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:20 PM (#5383199)
The Celtics are super into blowing leads in the 4th and it's very annoying.
   977. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:27 PM (#5383203)
Terrible win. 8-7 in the last 15

Damn = https://vine.co/v/53eB6ghv0g5
   978. jmurph Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:34 PM (#5383204)
Joel Embiid is so ####### good.

The amazing thing is there's almost literally no one else on the court the opposing team has to worry about, and he's still getting it done. +23 in 28 minutes tonight, the other starters were +4,6,7, and 11.
   979. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 13, 2017 at 10:51 PM (#5383209)
The Sixer are not only 8-7 in their last 15, they are also 5-1 in their last 6 games. I don't know whether you are being sarcastic, but I'd certainly be rooting for them to win.

The Sixers have Embiid, they have Simmons,and other assets. The time to start winning is now.
   980. JC in DC Posted: January 13, 2017 at 11:05 PM (#5383212)
What an awful night for Russell. 7/23 with 10 turnovers. Egads.
   981. billyshears Posted: January 13, 2017 at 11:21 PM (#5383217)
I don't know. The recent path to success generally involves employing LeBron, being the Spurs, making major trades (Boston, Lakers), or a combination of those things (Cleveland). I guess Golden State arguably fits in the "let them develop" side of things, but even that was kickstarted with a relatively controversial deal to get Bogut and then the Igoudala deal.

With Washington specifically, I lived in DC throughout the Arenas/Butler/Jamison years, and damn if this current go-round doesn't remind me a lot of that.


Part of my view is colored by the fact that I don't think it's so bad to be Toronto. Having your team get to the conference finals is great for a fan. Not only is the ride fun, but you never feel like your team has as little chance against Goliath as the rest of the world. Maybe Washington doesn't get there with this group, but I don't think hoping for that would be terribly over-optimistic.
   982. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 13, 2017 at 11:36 PM (#5383219)
The Sixer are not only 8-7 in their last 15, they are also 5-1 in their last 6 games. I don't know whether you are being sarcastic, but I'd certainly be rooting for them to win.

The Sixers have Embiid, they have Simmons,and other assets. The time to start winning is now.
maybe 10% sarcastic, but not really. the top of this draft is set up perfectly to fill the sixers needs and having the right pick is crucial. this might be overly dramatic, but the difference between crushing this offseason or not could be the difference between winning six titles or none.
Joel Embiid is so ####### good. I don't know how it's possible he just started playing in 2011.
not only that, but he missed two full seasons and he only played half a year in college. i'm not sure he played more than 50 competitive games before this season started.


the sixers have a top 5 defense over the last 15 games.
   983. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 14, 2017 at 12:01 AM (#5383224)
i love this guy.
   984. Tin Angel Posted: January 14, 2017 at 12:14 AM (#5383225)
Only six titles?
   985. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 14, 2017 at 12:45 AM (#5383229)
Only six titles?
eight seemed a bit presumptuous.
   986. Norcan Posted: January 14, 2017 at 10:14 AM (#5383252)
maybe 10% sarcastic, but not really. the top of this draft is set up perfectly to fill the sixers needs and having the right pick is crucial. this might be overly dramatic, but the difference between crushing this offseason or not could be the difference between winning six titles or none.


That's an understatement. After they trade Noel and Jahlil, they'll possibly have 4 of the top 7 picks to build a homegrown Super Team.
   987. Norcan Posted: January 14, 2017 at 10:19 AM (#5383253)
Bill Simmons tweeted a highlight video of Guershon Yabusele, French dude who was a mid-1st pick by the Celtics last year and I'll be damned if he didn't look like Bonzi Wells with his burly body and perimeter skills, all topped off with a headband. Yeah he's not playing against great competition over in China, but I didn't know he could actually dribble the ball and swivel his hips like an actual small forward. Not sure it'll mean anything if he can't do it against NBA small forwards or defend either the SF/PF position but whatever. He's tantalizing.
   988. No, TFTIO is the puppet Posted: January 14, 2017 at 10:34 AM (#5383256)
Rubio seems to be having quite a week.
   989. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 14, 2017 at 11:01 AM (#5383261)
That's an understatement. After they trade Noel and Jahlil, they'll possibly have 4 of the top 7 picks to build a homegrown Super Team.
expecting 4 of the top 7 is a bit greedy. 2 of the top 7 and another in the late lottery should suffice.
   990. JC in DC Posted: January 14, 2017 at 11:58 AM (#5383283)
I too love Embiid. He reminds me a bit of Olajuwon, when the latter was young. Not to get all Stiggles, but whom would you take right now: KAT or Embiid? KAT has two years on him (21 versus nearly 23). Otherwise, they seem like two pretty exciting young big men. (I'm pretty sure I'd take AD over both given the chance.)
   991. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 14, 2017 at 01:02 PM (#5383296)
Not to get all Stiggles
sports are more fun when you go full STIGGLES.
   992. No, TFTIO is the puppet Posted: January 14, 2017 at 03:37 PM (#5383322)
I too love Embiid. He reminds me a bit of Olajuwon, when the latter was young. Not to get all Stiggles, but whom would you take right now: KAT or Embiid? KAT has two years on him (21 versus nearly 23). Otherwise, they seem like two pretty exciting young big men. (I'm pretty sure I'd take AD over both given the chance.)

I would be very happy if my team had any one of the three. Happily, they do!
   993. Norcan Posted: January 14, 2017 at 04:11 PM (#5383331)
Has anyone heard of Zion Williamson, 16 year old, lefty basketball player who's built like a tight end and yet can jump out of this world? He had one of the most spectacular chase down blocks of all time, maybe the most spectacular if you take out the context and level of competition. He's listed at 6'6 and was about neck high with the rim after the block. https://t.co/COjft7CNUC

I'm sick to my stomach that the Brooklyn picks run out before he can possibly enter the draft. I would love it if he could graduate high school in three years.
   994. Harlond Posted: January 14, 2017 at 07:03 PM (#5383376)
Re: 990--Giannis is still just 22, isn't he? Shouldn't he be in the conversation?
   995. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: January 14, 2017 at 07:07 PM (#5383377)
sports are more fun when you go full STIGGLES


Nothing better than rooting for your fav team(s) to lose games
   996. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 14, 2017 at 08:45 PM (#5383415)
Nothing better than rooting for your fav team(s) to lose games
It's not just a Process, it's a way of life.
   997. STIGGLES don't want to talk about cracker barrel Posted: January 14, 2017 at 09:51 PM (#5383432)
Nothing better than rooting for your fav team(s) to lose games

we've already tanked through 3.5 seasons. another 35-40 losses isn't going to be the straw that breaks anyone's back.

if this season started with the sixers riding a top 5 defense to a .500 record through january, the calculus that determines my rooting interests would be different. but what actually happened was the sixers come out of the gate 4-18 and in this scenario, tanking is still more beneficial to the sixers long term interests.
   998. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 14, 2017 at 11:34 PM (#5383467)
Of course Hood left tonight's game with a non-contact knee injury screaming in pain and unable to put weight on that leg. This team's health is cursed.
   999. maccoach57 Posted: January 15, 2017 at 01:39 AM (#5383476)
flip
   1000. maccoach57 Posted: January 15, 2017 at 01:39 AM (#5383477)
murray
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