Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, March 15, 2018

OT - March Madness 2018

I estimate that only STIGGLES is interested in college basketball. This thread will avoid detracting from what BBTF is truly about: the NBA and how many MLB teams are tanking.

Who will earn a soon-to-be vacated Final Four birth this year?

#1 Seeds are Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, and Xavier.

[Link goes to overview of Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball ratings]

My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 15, 2018 at 11:21 AM | 267 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: amateurs, basketball, college basketball, march madness

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 1 of 3 pages  1 2 3 > 
   1. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: March 15, 2018 at 12:34 PM (#5638438)
I just submitted a thread for this, refreshed the page, and saw this. How can I delete my other thread?
   2. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: March 15, 2018 at 01:42 PM (#5638490)
It's remarkable that they've managed to field 68 teams for a tournament while (as far as I can tell from the media) Trae Young is the only player in all of college basketball. Dude's going to be exhausted.
   3. villageidiom Posted: March 15, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5638522)
I just submitted a thread for this, refreshed the page, and saw this. How can I delete my other thread?
I'm not authorized to delete threads. But I've closed the other thread and set it to link to here. EDIT: And I moved up the expiration date for the thread to 10 minutes ago, which removes it from the thread list. Technically it's not deleted, but for the site users it has the same practical effect.
   4. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: March 15, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5638550)
Thank you.
   5. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 15, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5638552)
Trae Young is the only player in all of college basketball. Dude's going to be exhausted.


In a minute or two, he will finally be able to get plenty of rest.
   6. smileyy Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5638575)
Congratulations to Trae Young for graduating from this thread to the OT: NBA thread!
   7. smileyy Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5638576)
Who will earn a soon-to-be vacated Final Four birth this year?


Sick burn
   8. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5638578)
OU absolutely didn't belong in the tournament. Lost 12 of last 18 (now 13 of last 19) and 8 of last 10 (now 9 of last 11).

I get that, probably, middle to below middle of the pack major conference teams are better than the top of the pack mid-major and minor conference teams. But if they're going to continue with the "anyone" can win they need to find a way to get the mid-major and minor conference teams that stumble in conference tourneys.

Yes, Middle Tennessee could have won their conference tournament to get in. But, then, OU could have won more than half its conference games to get in.

I think teams shouldn't be allowed in unless they are over .500 in conference. Why does anyone (who isn't a fan of the school) want to see those mediocre teams who are already overexposed.

/rant
   9. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5638583)
Oh, and by the way, I am very interested in college basketball. I just talk about it here much because few others care. But I've known as long as I've followed it that, at the highest levels, at least, it is a minor professional league. I'd kind of like to see them blow it up and shovel the money toward someone other than NCAA brass.
   10. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:16 PM (#5638588)
Concur with #8, for the most part. We already know what happens when Oklahoma plays good teams: They lose more often than they win. They've already shown they're unworthy of an opportunity to earn a national title. Schools like Middle Tennessee and Saint Mary's didn't get that chance.

I should note that MTSU lost to Miami by three points, Auburn by six points, and USC by five. So what we know is that on a neutral court, they gave a #4 seed and a #6 seed everything they could handle but lost. Saint Mary's went 1-1 in conference against a #4 seed and won 29 games. I'd much rather see them in the NCAA tourney than a team that was a #9 seed in a ten-team conference tournament.
   11. SoSH U at work Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5638594)
Five-ten years ago, the committee was doing a good job of rewarding teams like MTS and St. Mary's. Then they just stopped, for seemingly no reason.

   12. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5638595)
I have family at New Mexico State and saw some of the WAC tournament this year. It was fun but poorly attended. I can't believe they make any money on it. If I were a minor conference, maybe even a mid-major, under current rules, I'd give my automatic bid to the regular season champ. They will usually have a reasonable shot at an upset whereas your 4 seed is going to get smoked.

The teacher's college from North Carolina given Gonzaga all they can handle.
   13. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:29 PM (#5638600)
Then they just stopped, for seemingly no reason.


Powerful people with money didn't like it.
   14. smileyy Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5638607)
Aaaand UNCG loses it in classic the-way-lower-seeded-teams-lose-close-games fashion. That forced shot that went off the side of the backboard was ugly. And of course Gonzaga buries a 3 on the other end.
   15. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:38 PM (#5638608)
Five-ten years ago, the committee was doing a good job of rewarding teams like MTS and St. Mary's. Then they just stopped, for seemingly no reason.

Bunyon nails it in [13]. The NCAA isn't as interested in determining the best team as they are in maximizing ticket sales and eyeballs on TV screens, and OU fans will do more of that than MTSU or St. Mary's.
   16. smileyy Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5638610)
I was against expanding to 65 and then 68 teams and I'm coming around to a 72 or 96 team tournament.
   17. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:45 PM (#5638615)
I think it's academic anyway. A) It's possible the whole setup of major college sports is about to blow up. B) Even if it doesn't, the folks with power are more than happy with the status quo.
   18. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: March 15, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5638622)
To be fair, if you want to reward the best team, keep the tourney reaaaally small. That's only _a_ goal.

I went to UNCG - the lack of interest in their basketball team is palpable.
   19. The Good Face Posted: March 15, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5638631)
Schools like Middle Tennessee and Saint Mary's didn't get that chance.

I should note that MTSU lost to Miami by three points, Auburn by six points, and USC by five. So what we know is that on a neutral court, they gave a #4 seed and a #6 seed everything they could handle but lost. Saint Mary's went 1-1 in conference against a #4 seed and won 29 games. I'd much rather see them in the NCAA tourney than a team that was a #9 seed in a ten-team conference tournament.


Eh, I have no pity for Saint Mary's. Their schedule outside of Gonzaga was comprised of cupcakes and they were offered games against better programs (Nevada, Creighton) that they turned down. You want to be Gonzaga or Wichita State? Get out there and schedule as aggressively as you can. I'd rather see a mid tier team from a strong conference in the tournament than a paper tiger that only scheduled cupcakes.
   20. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 15, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5638636)
I went to UNCG - the lack of interest in their basketball team is palpable.
I went to one UNC-G game, which was to see them play the Tim Duncan/Randolph Childress edition of Wake Forest. It was a beat down, but not as much of a beat down as one would have expected.
   21. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5638640)
A good argument could be made for tightening up to 32, or even 16 teams. The regular season champ from the 16 highest ranked conferences, done. But they want a lot of games for money (and I love this weekend as much as any in sport, save maybe the LCS week).


But taking OU (or, my alma mater, their rival OSU (who also didn't belong in the tourney)) we KNOW they aren't as good as a whole bunch of major conference teams. And hardly any of them schedule anything out of conference.

I totally agree that the mid-major and minor conference teams are rarely going to be as good as mid-tier teams from the major conferences. But that only matters if what we're trying to do is select the BEST teams. But if we're doing that, the tournament should be no more than 32 teams, and probably fewer.

The main goal is to rake in money for a handful of NCAA officials. And they're outrageously successful at this.
   22. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 04:13 PM (#5638642)
[20] Wake never performs up to expectations against weaker teams. Or any teams, for that matter.
   23. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: March 15, 2018 at 04:24 PM (#5638651)
Greensboro has had one truly exciting (to me) player in the last twenty years, Kyle Hines. He's spent his career in Europe (where he was once the Euroleague DPotY) because he's a 6-5 center, but obliterated the Southern conference.
   24. smileyy Posted: March 15, 2018 at 04:29 PM (#5638653)
Their schedule outside of Gonzaga was comprised of cupcakes and they were offered games against better programs (Nevada, Creighton) that they turned down.


Concur -- this is damning.
   25. Stevey Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:04 PM (#5638674)
The regular season champ from the 16 highest ranked conferences, done. But they want a lot of games for money


Yeah, the main reason to take Xavier over Sun Belt (Sagarin #16 conference) champ Louisiana-Lafayette is primarily money, and not that the former has a much better claim to being the best team in college basketball.
   26. Stevey Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:08 PM (#5638678)
Middle Tennessee could have won their conference tournament to get in. But, then, OU could have won more than half its conference games to get in.


The former is easier, probably a whole lot easier, than the latter.
   27. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:13 PM (#5638681)
.
   28. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:21 PM (#5638690)
I was against expanding to 65 and then 68 teams and I'm coming around to a 72 or 96 team tournament.
Pomeroy rates 351 teams, so let's have a tournament with all of them:

1st round (62 teams): Bottom 62 teams enter.
2nd round (192 teams): Next 161 teams without automatic bids enter.
3rd round (192 teams): Top 96 teams without automatic bids enter.
4th round (128 teams): 32 automatic bids enter.

It turns the tournament into a 5 weekend event. It's not fair to a good team from a power conference that has to enter a round earlier than the champion of the SWAC and MEAC, but I don't care. The NCAA Tournament isn't about fairness, it's about lots of #### happening.
   29. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:29 PM (#5638696)
Pomeroy rates 351 teams, so let's have a tournament with all of them:


If I'm Mike Krzyzewski, I'd just forfeit all my regular season games. Who needs the headache? Just practice and get ready for the tournament.
   30. smileyy Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:31 PM (#5638697)
Aaaand Miami loses it in classic the-way-higher-seeded-teams-lose-close-games fashion: missing the front-end of a 1-1
   31. smileyy Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:32 PM (#5638698)
If I'm Mike Krzyzewski, I'd just forfeit all my regular season games. Who needs the headache? Just practice and get ready for the tournament.


It'd keep Grayson Allen from being suspended. Wait. The Duke name does that already.
   32. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:46 PM (#5638707)
If I'm Mike Krzyzewski, I'd just forfeit all my regular season games. Who needs the headache? Just practice and get ready for the tournament.
If we seed by Pomeroy's ratings and put the 0-everything Duke last, it means a first round game against 10-21 Tennessee Martin, then a second round game against someone like UC-Irvine or Jacksonville State. IOW, nice tune-up games to shake off the rust.

Krzyzewski enough of a weasel that he might do something like that.
   33. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:51 PM (#5638712)
Middle Tennessee could have won their conference tournament to get in. But, then, OU could have won more than half its conference games to get in.


The former is easier, probably a whole lot easier, than the latter.


Right. Which is why the harder thing should be rewarded rather than the easier thing.
   34. Howie Menckel Posted: March 15, 2018 at 05:58 PM (#5638715)
this tweet below refers to Loyola of Chicago win (trivia: I have visited all of the Loyolas: LA Marymount, Baltimore, New Orleans, Chicago #loyolagrandslam)

Chris Fallica
‏Verified account @chrisfallica
9m9 minutes ago

Missouri Valley Conference has now won its last 9 Round of 64 games, 5 coming as a lower seed.
   35. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 06:25 PM (#5638727)
1st round (62 teams): Bottom 62 teams enter.
2nd round (192 teams): Next 161 teams without automatic bids enter.
3rd round (192 teams): Top 96 teams without automatic bids enter.
4th round (128 teams): 32 automatic bids enter.


I love this but there are 32 automatic bids. Have them enter once the others have been whittled down to 32. That becomes your 64 and makes playing for an automatic bid worthwhile. And don't seed that. Just make it a random draw: an automatic bid playing a non-automatic.
   36. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 15, 2018 at 07:15 PM (#5638736)
I love this but there are 32 automatic bids. Have them enter once the others have been whittled down to 32. That becomes your 64 and makes playing for an automatic bid worthwhile. And don't seed that. Just make it a random draw: an automatic bid playing a non-automatic.
I've combined this with the decision to go full FA cup and combine the D1, D2, and D3 tournaments. D3 has 43 conferences and about 450 teams, D2 has 320 teams and 34 conferences.

1st round (202 teams): 202 D3 teams enter
2nd round (306 teams): 205 D3 teams enter
3rd round (196 teams): 43 D3 conference champs enter
4th round (248 teams): 150 D2 teams enter
5th round (260 teams): 136 D2 teams enter
6th round (164 teams): 34 D2 conference champs enter
7th round (82 teams)
8th round (208 teams): 167 D1 teams enter
9th round (256 teams): 152 D1 teams enter
10th round (128 teams)
11th round (64 teams)
12th round (64 teams): 32 D1 conference champs enter
13th round (32)
14th round (16)
15th round (8)
16th round (4)
17th round Championship game

That makes winning a D1 conference championship a really big deal. I like the idea of not seeding once the teams are in the pot. Reshuffle randomly every weekend, and have everyone essentially play a series of four game mini-tournaments.
   37. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 15, 2018 at 07:17 PM (#5638737)
That tournament would take 2 months. How long is the regular season in this awful idea?

ETA: Just saw [36], that tournament would literally take all year.
   38. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: March 15, 2018 at 07:23 PM (#5638739)
The tournament format from #28 takes 5 weekends, so not much longer than the current. The admittedly goofy idea in #36 would be something that would probably run throughout the season, like a cup tournament in soccer, and would be based on last year's results. The D3 teams would be playing all of their tournament games in November.
   39. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 15, 2018 at 07:29 PM (#5638741)
For bunyon's idea of having to be over .500, that would eliminate
TCU(6)
TAMU(7)
Bama(9)
FSU(9)
Butler(10)
Texas(10)
Oklahoma(10)
Syracuse(11)
ASU(11).

They'd be replaced by(according to NIT seeding)

St. Mary's
USC
Utah
Oregon
Stanford
MTSU
Western KY
Boise State
One of Washington or Nebraska(I guess since Washington won and Nebraska lost Washington gets the tiebreak)

   40. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 15, 2018 at 07:33 PM (#5638743)
Yeah, I looked at the numbers too quickly on #28.
   41. JJ1986 Posted: March 15, 2018 at 07:39 PM (#5638745)
Why does't Davidson set any screens on the ball? Their offense looks terrible.
   42. Stevey Posted: March 15, 2018 at 07:50 PM (#5638747)
KenPom's of #39
TCU: 22
TAMU: 29
Bama: 51
FSU: 36
Butler: 26
Texas: 38
Oklahoma: 48
Syracuse: 52
ASU: 49
Average: 39

SMU: 25
USC: 45
Utah: 66
Oregon 73
Stanford: 85
MTSU: 41
WKU: 54
Boise: 60
Wash: 98(!)
Neb: 58
Average: 60.5

So, to fix one glaring wrong in Oklahoma over St. Mary's, we get a lot worse elsewhere.
   43. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 08:39 PM (#5638755)
So, to fix one glaring wrong in Oklahoma over St. Mary's, we get a lot worse elsewhere.

Again, it isn't about picking the 64 best teams. If we did that, it would be 62 teams from 5 conferences. It's to make people win something in the regular season. I mean, finishing over .500 in conference is not a big ask.

Or, if the regular season means nothing, go to the FA Cup format put up above.


Or, leave it alone. It's fine. It's fun and makes a lot of money and I'm enjoying my long weekend.
   44. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 09:19 PM (#5638767)
You know, if you make that tourney double elimination you essentially get a regular season out of it.
   45. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: March 15, 2018 at 10:07 PM (#5638781)
Kentucky didn't hit a three-point shot for the first time since 11/26/1988 against Seton Hall in the Great Alaska Shootout. The Seton Hall coach in that game? P.J. Carlesimo.
   46. smileyy Posted: March 15, 2018 at 11:41 PM (#5638815)
Sean Miller is going to need to buy some new recruits sooner than he thought.
   47. bunyon Posted: March 15, 2018 at 11:48 PM (#5638817)
I don't imagine he'll need recruits next year.
   48. smileyy Posted: March 15, 2018 at 11:55 PM (#5638818)
I Loled
   49. Howie Menckel Posted: March 16, 2018 at 12:02 AM (#5638820)

to be fair to Skip, Arizona was... ok, I've got nothing

Skip Bayless
‏Verified account @RealSkipBayless

I'm picking Arizona to win it all as a 4 seed because of Deandre Ayton, who at 7-1 has NBA superstar potential. Plays so hard and smart for his age. Maybe I'm expecting too much too soon, but he's easily the best player in this tournament.
   50. bunyon Posted: March 16, 2018 at 12:05 AM (#5638821)
That's a lot of best players in the tournament to go down on day one.

Also, that's it for the Pac-12, right?
   51. nick swisher hygiene Posted: March 16, 2018 at 12:08 AM (#5638822)
When was the last time a major conference recorded no tournament wins?

EDIT: Never, ESPN tells us...
   52. Howie Menckel Posted: March 16, 2018 at 12:21 AM (#5638825)
apparently three of the six 0-3 and worses are Pac-any number

two others are the 2004 Mountain West and 1990 WAC

#westcoasttough
   53. greenback is on a break Posted: March 16, 2018 at 12:45 AM (#5638826)
Montana-Michigan started at 10:30 and then had a 10 minute delay due to a clock malfunction. Somehow one Michigan woman managed to scream all the way to the bitter end, and it was glorious. Michigan looked like a team that hadn't played in two weeks, so in spite of the victory, that woman's screaming is all anyone will remember from tonight.
   54. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: March 16, 2018 at 12:57 AM (#5638827)
Is it over? calculator

Don't say Bill James never did anything for ya!
   55. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: March 16, 2018 at 01:25 AM (#5638831)
Nice bookend for the Pac 12 to go with their 1-9 bowl record. Conference of Champions.
   56. Stevey Posted: March 16, 2018 at 02:16 AM (#5638836)
it isn't about picking the 64 best teams


It sure as hell isn’t when we’re rigging it to get the 98th best team because we chose easy over better when it comes to analyzing teams.
   57. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 16, 2018 at 10:10 AM (#5638908)
If Carolina doesn't win, my backup team is now Michigan.
The Michigan freshman Isaiah Livers can only marvel when he watches highlight clips of the Wolverines’ Fab Five days.

“How do you play that way?” Livers asked.

He wasn’t referring to the style of play. He was talking about the style of attire.

Those extra-baggy shorts that the former Michigan stars Chris Webber and Jalen Rose made famous? Almost 30 years later, this year’s Wolverines just aren’t feeling it.

“The long shorts are out of date,” the sophomore Ibi Watson said. “If they can touch your knees, they’re way too long.”

It is said that fashion is cyclical. What’s notable here is that the same program that bucked the trend by concealing its legs in the 1990s is helping bring skin back in now.

In fact, players on Michigan, seeded third in the West Region and set to play Montana in the first round of the N.C.A.A. tournament on Thursday night, lamented that they could not find shorts that were quite revealing enough....

This is music to the ears of the men’s wear expert Mark-Evan Blackman, an assistant professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology in New York. He began noticing shorter shorts becoming popular again among athletes — tennis players included — around 2013. In his opinion, the change to a more tailored fit could not come soon enough.

“That’s the antithesis of fashion,” Blackman said of the baggy shorts. “I’m glad to say goodbye.”


   58. smileyy Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:11 AM (#5638961)
The male knee is obscene and should be covered at all times.
   59. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5638978)
The male knee is obscene and should be covered at all times.

No problem with that.
   60. I am going to be Frank Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5638996)
So regarding the short(er)-shorts, DJ Wilson (who is now on the Bucks) was probably the guy who "started" it on Michigan.

I stayed up to watch that game. It was awful on so many levels. A win is a win, but Montana was so aggressive with their blitzing of the guard during the PnR that it killed Michigan's offense. It was pretty impressive, but I don't know if that's replicable. Montana had a lot of quickness to recover out on the shooters.
   61. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: March 16, 2018 at 04:10 PM (#5639147)
I feel like Gregg Marshall and Wichita St. have had a number of early exits since they made the Final Four in 2013. That's just my gut though.
   62. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 16, 2018 at 04:32 PM (#5639154)

“The long shorts are out of date,” the sophomore Ibi Watson said. “If they can touch your knees, they’re way too long.”


Finally, the world is becoming sane again.

I was never out of style, I was just ahead of my time.
   63. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 16, 2018 at 04:58 PM (#5639164)
I feel like Gregg Marshall and Wichita St. have had a number of early exits since they made the Final Four in 2013. That's just my gut though.


The flameout when they came in 34-0 might be coloring your vision. Seems like they've done okay as a mostly lower seed:

2014: undefeated #1 seed and lost in the second round to Kentucky.
2015: They made the Sweet 16 in 2015 as a 7-seed.
2016: #11 seed, defeated #6 Arizona, lost in round of 32.
2017: #10 seed, defeated #7 Dayton, lost in round of 32.
2018: #13 seed, lost first round.
   64. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 16, 2018 at 05:09 PM (#5639170)
“The long shorts are out of date,” the sophomore Ibi Watson said. “If they can touch your knees, they’re way too long.”

Finally, the world is becoming sane again.

I was never out of style, I was just ahead of my time.


Once again it's the youth of America who're schooling the 30-something and 40-something geezers about the proper way to dress.
   65. smileyy Posted: March 16, 2018 at 06:16 PM (#5639198)
TBF that was a Kentucky team that was widely believed to be underseeded. Didn't they only gel about halfway through the season?
   66. bunyon Posted: March 16, 2018 at 09:08 PM (#5639231)
Yes, that Kentucky team was an 8 seed with 3 or 4 seed talent, maybe more. If WSU had lost to them in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight, where they should have run into them, it wouldn't have been such a big deal. Kentucky wound up losing in the finals to 7 seed UConn and then won the first 38 games they played the next year.

And in 2018, WSU was a #4 seed. This really is the first time they've lost to a team they probably shouldn't have well before they should have. But today was, unambiguously, a flameout.
   67. Howie Menckel Posted: March 16, 2018 at 09:26 PM (#5639232)
per 66, 2014 was the first time, imo, that the committee decided to exercise its unlimited power.

that is, there is no way that Kentucky was an 8 seed, but them against undefeated Wichita St in the second round was a ratings winner - as would be the subsequent games of that winner.

they've always nibbled on the edges - Duke gets its games in the time slots it wants on opening weekends, for instance - but that was the one that put them over the top.

meanwhile, while that worked out great for Kentucky, I wonder if they will ever reconsider the seedings.

I would say that reaching the Sweet 16, for most schools, is a huge prize. winning the first round is nice, but the weekend is a blur. then the dust settles and all 16 remaining teams have days of lucrative national exposure.

it's much better to be seeded 11 or 12 than 8 or 9, then. 6s and 5s lose nearly half their games to 11s and 12s. when the latter win, they also get more manageable second-round opponents.

the 8/9 players generally get screwed - a second-round matchup with a 1 seed that, depending on the year, may be unstoppable.

seeing the way NBA and MLB teams now game the system, I wonder if - given the amount of intel on projected seedings - it would be wise for a team seemingly destined for an 8/9 game to try to lose an earlier-round conference tournament game to shoot for an 11-12 seed - or a 10, which also is better than 8 or 9.

sure, there's risk - and the last four teams in get 11 seeds and play-in games. That alone may knock out the idea, which is interesting because I think that's an unintended consequence of the play-ins idea from 6 or 8 years ago.

ultimately it probably comes down to if there are 1, 2 or 3 "super teams" better than any this season, for instance. in that instance, it's sort of a game theory issue: avoiding those teams as long as possible is worth a risk, maybe. this year, not so much.

so no, I can't tell you why Oklahoma finished 2-8 this season. :) amusingly, they STILL avoided a playoff game as a 10 seed.
   68. bunyon Posted: March 16, 2018 at 09:58 PM (#5639238)
so no, I can't tell you why Oklahoma finished 2-8 this season

That isn't hard. It's because they suck.
   69. Tom T Posted: March 16, 2018 at 10:10 PM (#5639242)
So is everyone going to say Purdue choked again (like we really DID to UALR, 2 years ago) when we lose either to Butler or the Texas Tech/WVU winner, even though our Haas had to be put down due to the fractured elbow? [Sorry, too painful to ask that question without being stupid about it.]

Still trying to figure out which gods or demigods we offended when we made the FF in '80 with Carroll and Edmonson....
   70. bunyon Posted: March 16, 2018 at 10:14 PM (#5639243)
Tom T, my condolences. That's a terrible break (ha! I crack myself up). No, really, that sucks. I hope you guys can at least win one more.
   71. Howie Menckel Posted: March 16, 2018 at 10:26 PM (#5639250)
my niece's 16th-seeded UMBC Retrievers are tied 21-21 at halftime with No 1 overall seed Virginia.

impossible but true: her mom's (my sister) alma mater (and mine) also was a 16th seed about a dozen years ago and also faced the No 1 overall seed. THAT game had the 1 seed, also shockingly, up just 1 point at halftime.
   72. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: March 16, 2018 at 10:46 PM (#5639252)
Umbc now w a nice lead, force a uva timeout. Inevitably these 16s have a pants shitting moment, usually under 8min. We'll see.
   73. f_cking sick and tired of being 57i66135 Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5639258)
Umbc now w a nice lead, force a uva timeout. Inevitably these 16s have a pants shitting moment, usually under 8min. We'll see.

i'm not gonna say this was likely, but when a 16 eventually beats a 1, this is the formula for it.

a 1 seed that slows games to a crawl (350th in pace), but isn't particularly good offensively (46th in Orating), versus a 16 seed that launches 3s (20th in NCAA in 3PAs) and is good at making them (34th in 3P%).
   74. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:19 PM (#5639260)
The UMBC Twitter account is a goddamned delight right now.
   75. greenback is on a break Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:20 PM (#5639262)
Don't tell me UMBC is going to lose because their best player has freaking cramps.

ETA: Well, now it's make your FTs territory.
   76. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5639265)
This point guard for UMBC has been amazing.
   77. smileyy Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5639266)
And here I was sweating that Xavier would be the first one seed ever to lose.

JFC this is happening.
   78. greenback is on a break Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:28 PM (#5639267)
Holy ####, it's going to happen.
   79. Voodoo Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:29 PM (#5639268)
UMBC has this. Historic.
   80. smileyy Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:30 PM (#5639269)
Omg that Twitter account
   81. f_cking sick and tired of being 57i66135 Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:32 PM (#5639270)
Omg that Twitter account
someone needs to invite that twitter account to the NBA thread.
   82. f_cking sick and tired of being 57i66135 Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:34 PM (#5639271)
who's this guy coaching next year? arizona? temple? rutgers? louisville? maryland? penn state? IUPUI?
   83. greenback is on a break Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:35 PM (#5639272)
Something called Albany beat UMBC 83-39 in January.
   84. smileyy Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:37 PM (#5639273)
I'd say Pitt but the UMBC coach probably wants a step up
   85. f_cking sick and tired of being 57i66135 Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:38 PM (#5639275)
Retrievers head coach Ryan Odom is in his second year of the job, and just his third as a full-time head coach; two years ago he was at the helm of Lenoir–Rhyne University in North Carolina.

Virginia also famously lost to then-NAIA Chaminade while the #1 team in the country in 1982, which basketball mavens considered the biggest upset in college basketball history.


link
   86. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:40 PM (#5639277)
That PG is like 5’7”, 140lbs soaking wet. #######.
   87. Howie Menckel Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:41 PM (#5639278)
The UMBC coach's Dad was an assistant at UVA in the Sampson era

they had good photos of the UMBC coach as a kid wearing UVA hoops swag
   88. smileyy Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:53 PM (#5639282)
You might never see a more perfect S win probability chart.
   89. Tom T Posted: March 16, 2018 at 11:54 PM (#5639283)
Okay, we in West Lafayette can now feel confident that no matter what happens in our next game(s??), we won't be remembered. Woo-hoo!

a 1 seed that slows games to a crawl (350th in pace), but isn't particularly good offensively (46th in Orating), versus a 16 seed that launches 3s (20th in NCAA in 3PAs) and is good at making them (34th in 3P%).


That UMBC game was awesome to watch. And I whole-heartedly agree with this analysis by Stiggles. I had commented to my son ahead of the tournament that I felt UVA was actually the least likely to win it all, just because if they ever got down and were having an off-night on the defensive end, they had no hope to get back into it. (Opinion based on experience with the early Gene Keady teams.)

And Dave Odom's son will reap a darn nice contract somewhere for next year. Maryland ought to be looking seriously at him.
   90. bunyon Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:00 AM (#5639284)
I wouldn't have predicted it but, yeah, when they were down 14 with 10 or so to go, it was clear it could happen because there have been lots of 10 minute stretches this year where UVa didn't score 14.

I'll be damned. I have to tell you, though I have no connection to the school or team, I feel bad for those guys. They had a great year and no one will ever care. OTOH, I have friends at UMBC who I assume are drunk or in jail (or, likely, both) right now.
   91. Oriole Tragic: doomed to mysterious ignomy Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:02 AM (#5639285)
UMBC alum here. I don't even know how to act. I didn't even have the game on. Friends texted me to let me know.

I mean, we are a chess school. Sometimes we are OK at lacrosse.

We made the tournament around ten years ago, pretty much the same seeding situation, and Duke blew us out. People weren't even watching the game in the student center at the time.
   92. bunyon Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:06 AM (#5639287)
Watch the next game. They have a real shot at Kansas State.
   93. bunyon Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:07 AM (#5639288)
I mean, if they shoot like they did tonight, they have a real shot at pretty much anyone. That was crazy shooting.
   94. Zach Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:10 AM (#5639290)
The highlights from the UMBC game are crazy. At some point, Virginia just became totally demoralized and UMBC could do whatever they wanted.

I've seen enough flameouts from the Jayhawks to recognize the pattern. At first you think "Hey, these guys are pretty scrappy and getting some bounces." Then you think "Ok, we'd better settle down and put these guys away." Then it's "Gosh, we're kind of running out of time here." Then "Oh, no, it's happening, isn't it?"

At some point, it looks like the shock of losing to a 16 seed became a self fulfilling prophecy. There's no way UMBC could get that many good shots if Virginia keeps their head in the game.
   95. smileyy Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:11 AM (#5639291)
I can tell how much UMBC is into basketball, cos according to Deadspin it was Georgetown who blew you guys out last time. By 20, fittingly.
   96. bunyon Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:15 AM (#5639293)
I'm so rooting for a Buffalo/UMBC sweet 16 game.
   97. smileyy Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:19 AM (#5639294)
From another board I read:

Just like that, UMBC has more ACC wins this year than Pitt.
   98. JC in DC Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:24 AM (#5639295)
Last year UMBC didn't even make the NIT. They competed in the CIT. And got knocked out in the semis.

I'm a UVA alum, even though I follow Villanova basketball much more closely. This is really unfathomable.
   99. SoSH U at work Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:24 AM (#5639296)
When I turned on the TV and saw the box at the top, UMBC had scored 10 points through 13:30 in the first half. They scored 64 in the next 26:30.

   100. greenback is on a break Posted: March 17, 2018 at 12:25 AM (#5639297)
Watch the next game. They have a real shot at Kansas State.

I think Odom will be happy if all twelve guys (or whatever) show up in uniform. It's going to be almost impossible to get them ready for Sunday.
Page 1 of 3 pages  1 2 3 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Francis
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 2018 Apr 16: Beto strikes out but is a hit at baseball fundraiser
(1071 - 12:14am, Apr 21)
Last: Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant

NewsblogFrankly, my dear, I don't give an OMNICHATTER, for April 20, 2018.
(81 - 12:10am, Apr 21)
Last: Jay Seaver

NewsblogOT - 2017-18 NBA thread (All-Star Weekend to End of Time edition)
(2263 - 11:02pm, Apr 20)
Last: SteveF

Hall of Merit2019 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(104 - 10:09pm, Apr 20)
Last: Kiko Sakata

NewsblogBryan Price dismissed as Reds manager | MLB.com
(93 - 10:00pm, Apr 20)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-20-2018
(24 - 9:53pm, Apr 20)
Last: AndrewJ

NewsblogBBTF ANNUAL CENTRAL PARK SOFTBALL GAME 2018
(61 - 9:38pm, Apr 20)
Last: Greg K

NewsblogOT: Winter Soccer Thread
(1526 - 8:30pm, Apr 20)
Last: Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB)

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-19-2018
(23 - 6:56pm, Apr 20)
Last: Morty Causa

NewsblogIt’s not just ownership that’s keeping Jose Reyes a Met
(30 - 6:45pm, Apr 20)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogUpdate: Cubs' Anthony Rizzo calls his shorter-season, pay-cut comments 'my opinion'
(128 - 4:01pm, Apr 20)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogBraves sign Jose Bautista to a minor-league contract, will play third base
(34 - 1:59pm, Apr 20)
Last: Rally

Sox TherapyAre The Angels A Real Team?
(17 - 1:35pm, Apr 20)
Last: Darren

Sox TherapyLining Up The Minors
(8 - 12:24pm, Apr 20)
Last: Darren

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1942 Ballot
(1 - 11:54am, Apr 20)
Last: DL from MN

Page rendered in 0.4600 seconds
47 querie(s) executed