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Wednesday, November 01, 2017

OT - November* 2017 College Football thread

The longest month.


* 30 days hath November, except in the college football thread where it runs through Championship Week.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 01, 2017 at 09:48 AM | 182 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: college football, off-topic

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   1. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 01, 2017 at 05:18 PM (#5568771)
there are still 13 power five teams left with 0- or 1-loss. do people here think that everyone else is out of the running for a playoff spot?

also, who's the favorite now to win the pac 12? what about the big 12?
   2. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 01, 2017 at 05:55 PM (#5568802)
Odds from 5dimes. Not sure if any other sites do future bets like these midseason:

SEC Title Game: Alabama -6.5 over Georgia
SEC Champion: Alabama wins -160/Field +120

ACC Champion: Clemson wins +125/Field -165

Big Ten Title Game: Ohio State -9 over Wisconsin
Big Ten Champion: Ohio State wins -270/Field +190

Pac-12 Champion: Washington +120/Field -160

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma +120/Field -160

Notre Dame: Over 10 wins +160/Under 10 wins -210
   3. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 01, 2017 at 06:24 PM (#5568818)
Field vs Washington seems pretty good? Washington has to play at Stanford, early line for that is Washington -3.5 so no gimme. Then beating USC/Arizona doesn't seem like a freebie either. Maybe now I'm talking myself out of it.
   4. Ulysses S. Fairsmith Posted: November 01, 2017 at 06:34 PM (#5568828)
. . . do people here think that everyone else is out of the running for a playoff spot?


It's not a playoff. It's an invitational. It lost all claim to being a playoff when the committee decided that Penn State's week 2, 3-point loss at their arch-rival was more important than the entire Big 10 season.

I'm no fan of Penn State, but I know a screw job when I see it.
   5. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 01, 2017 at 07:08 PM (#5568845)
Piles of games to play. We will certainly see a Clint stoerner type moment which will alter fortunes for somebody.
   6. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 01, 2017 at 08:07 PM (#5568882)
It was a screwjob to take a 1 loss Ohio State (4-1 vs. ranked teams) over 2 loss PSU (2-2 vs. ranked teams)?
   7. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 01, 2017 at 10:06 PM (#5569234)
It's not a playoff. It's an invitational. It lost all claim to being a playoff when the committee decided that Penn State's week 2, 3-point loss at their arch-rival was more important than the entire Big 10 season.

I'm no fan of Penn State, but I know a screw job when I see it.

              Penn State    Ohio State

Kent State       33 13 
Pittsburgh       39 42 
Temple           34 27 
Bowling Green                 77 10
Tulsa                         48  3
Oklahoma                      45 24

Iowa             41 14
Minnesota        29 26 
Purdue           62 24 
Nebraska                      62  3
Northwestern                  24 20

Indiana          45 31        38 17
Maryland         38 14        62  3
Michigan         10 49        30 27
Michigan State   45 12        17 16
Rutgers          39  0        58  0
Wisconsin        38 31        30 23
Head-to-head     24 21        21 24

It seems pretty clear who the better team was over "the entire Big 10 season," but let's just grant that a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown triggering an arbitrary tiebreaker outweighs Ohio State's general supremacy across 17 other games. Your reasoning beyond that has to be that the non-conference schedule literally doesn't count for anything, otherwise Ohio State's clear superiority therein flips things comfortably in its favor. That's...an interesting position to take.
   8. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 01, 2017 at 10:06 PM (#5569235)
I'm heading to the Breeder's Cup this Friday/Sat, and then up to see AZ at USC, the game looked like a dud when the season began, but this Tate kid should be fun to watch.
   9. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 02, 2017 at 10:16 AM (#5569700)
there are still 13 power five teams left with 0- or 1-loss. do people here think that everyone else is out of the running for a playoff spot?
Yes.

The SEC champ will have 0 or 1 loss.
The Big 10 champ will have 0 or 1 loss; so might 1 or 2 other teams.
The ACC champ will have 0 or 1 loss; so might another team.
Notre Dame will be favored in all of their remaining games (although it's not exactly a cupcake schedule).

The Big 12 is a mess - OK plays OSU and TCU; OSU plays OK and giant-killer ISU; TCU has just OK - then the 2 left standing (or maybe ISU, who also only has 1 league loss) play the conference championship. It's entirely possible no 1-loss team comes out alive.

Washington, and the PAC 12, need complete bedlam the rest of the way out; there are a number of teams that even with 2 losses will have a better resume than they will.
   10. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 02, 2017 at 10:52 AM (#5569737)
I should add to #9 - the SEC might have a 2nd 1-loss team.
   11. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: November 02, 2017 at 11:56 AM (#5569830)
#9 & 10 -

I am an SEC homer, but I have a hard time imagining a 1-loss SEC runner-up that deserves to make the playoff. If Georgia wins out and then loses to Alabama the SEC Championship game, then I don't think UGA's resume is that strong. They (theoretically) will have won at Auburn, at Notre Dame, and then lost to Alabama at a neutral site. The SEC East is a dumpster fire. The Dawgs' third-best win would be against Miss. St. at home, which is respectable enough, but then their slate of opponents gets really weak.

I would have a hard time taking that Georgia team over a 1-loss Notre Dame or 1-loss champs from the other Power 5 conferences.

I know that you are addressing the possibility of a 2-loss team sneaking in, but I have a hard time seeing a conference send two teams to the playoff this year. I am not saying these are the 4 best teams, but if I had to guess, then I would say the playoff will be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Ohio State with Washington as the first team out.
   12. Ithaca2323 Posted: November 02, 2017 at 12:41 PM (#5569879)

I am an SEC homer, but I have a hard time imagining a 1-loss SEC runner-up that deserves to make the playoff. If Georgia wins out and then loses to Alabama the SEC Championship game, then I don't think UGA's resume is that strong. They (theoretically) will have won at Auburn, at Notre Dame, and then lost to Alabama at a neutral site. The SEC East is a dumpster fire. The Dawgs' third-best win would be against Miss. St. at home, which is respectable enough, but then their slate of opponents gets really weak.

I would have a hard time taking that Georgia team over a 1-loss Notre Dame or 1-loss champs from the other Power 5 conferences.


There's also the possibility that Georgia wins the SEC of course.

But I think NDs schedule could take some hits soon. NC State was being elevated by supposed marquee wins over Louisville (5-4) and Florida State (2-5) that are now nothingburgers, and they'll probably get beat by Clemson. Stanford's got some ranked opponents coming up, and they barely survived one of the worst teams in the country last week. Michigan State is absolutely about to lose their next two. It's probably still a better schedule than Georgia, but it's not what it is right now.
   13. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 02, 2017 at 12:52 PM (#5569892)
I am an SEC homer, but I have a hard time imagining a 1-loss SEC runner-up that deserves to make the playoff. If Georgia wins out and then loses to Alabama the SEC Championship game, then I don't think UGA's resume is that strong. They (theoretically) will have won at Auburn, at Notre Dame, and then lost to Alabama at a neutral site. The SEC East is a dumpster fire. The Dawgs' third-best win would be against Miss. St. at home, which is respectable enough, but then their slate of opponents gets really weak.

I would have a hard time taking that Georgia team over a 1-loss Notre Dame or 1-loss champs from the other Power 5 conferences.

I know that you are addressing the possibility of a 2-loss team sneaking in, but I have a hard time seeing a conference send two teams to the playoff this year. I am not saying these are the 4 best teams, but if I had to guess, then I would say the playoff will be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Ohio State with Washington as the first team out.
1. You're right, I was addressing the possibility of a 2 loss team getting in.

2. Literally every CFB "expert" is saying right now that if Alabama and Georgia go into the SEC championship game undefeated, that game will only determine playoff seeding. And if ND also wins out, right there are 3 of the 4 seeds, with (a )1 loss OSU/undefeated Wisconsin, (b) 1 loss Clemson/1 loss Miami, and (c) a 1-loss Big 12 champ vying for the final spot. FWIW, the composite computer rankings actually show Georgia ahead of Alabama (and Penn State ahead of OSU, but that will change as OSU has 3 ranked teams left (vs. 1 for PSU) including potentially vs. undefeated Wisconsin).

3. Georgia's win at ND is all of the talk right now, showing how good they are ("They gave ND their only loss, and on the road no less!") and how good ND is ("Their only loss is by 1 to undefeated UGA!"). It's considered the biggest win in the country so far (and unless there's an upset along the way, it'll continue to do so til the SEC championship game). And say what you want about Georgia's schedule, but what's Alabama's biggest win so far - Colorado State? Fresno State? The best Power 5 team Alabama beat so far may be 5-3 Texas A&M.

Unless you give lots of extra credit for conference championships, a 1 loss Georgia will have the best resume of any 1 loss team. I would go so far as to say Georgia can knock Alabama out, but Alabama can't do the same to Georgia.


   14. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 02, 2017 at 01:28 PM (#5569935)
But I think NDs schedule could take some hits soon. NC State was being elevated by supposed marquee wins over Louisville (5-4) and Florida State (2-5) that are now nothingburgers, and they'll probably get beat by Clemson. Stanford's got some ranked opponents coming up, and they barely survived one of the worst teams in the country last week. Michigan State is absolutely about to lose their next two. It's probably still a better schedule than Georgia, but it's not what it is right now.
According to Jeff Sagarin, ND's schedule is #12 in the country right now - which takes into account actual games played - and they still have #11 Miami and #21 Stanford left.

Look, as every good Catholic should I hate ND. But they've played a pretty impressively:

Beat current #17 USC by 35.
Beat current #24 MSU by 20.
Beat current #20 NCS by 21.

In fact, other than losing to Georgia the MSU game was the closest game they've played this year.
   15. Ulysses S. Fairsmith Posted: November 02, 2017 at 07:09 PM (#5570224)
It seems pretty clear who the better team was over "the entire Big 10 season," . . .


The Big 10 has a system in place for determining their champion based on what happens on the field throughout the entire Big 10 season--all the teams, all the games. Which team looked better couldn't be less relevant; Penn State actually won the championship. Then the committee chose to send an Ohio State team that was sitting at home during the Big 10 championship game on to the so-called playoff.

Imagine if the Yankees had beaten Houston in game seven of the ALCS. Houston looked like the better team on the year, so should they still have gone on to the World Series in that case? Of course not; that's not how a playoff works.

The committee's nonsense last year disgusted me. I watched lots of bowl games last year; I always do. The "playoff" games were not among them.
   16. Ulysses S. Fairsmith Posted: November 02, 2017 at 07:12 PM (#5570226)
Literally every CFB "expert" is saying right now that if Alabama and Georgia go into the SEC championship game undefeated, that game will only determine playoff seeding.


I've heard that as well, and it's probably true--but I think it's ridiculous. No team should get into a championship playoff by losing the conference championship game. It makes a mockery of the idea that the "playoff" is designed to allow the teams to decide things on the field.
   17. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 02, 2017 at 08:01 PM (#5570247)
i think alabama gets the benefit of the doubt if they're undefeated and lose in the SEC championship game.

i don't think it's likely that georgia gets that same benefit.
   18. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: November 02, 2017 at 08:17 PM (#5570256)
The Big 10 has a system in place for determining their champion based on what happens on the field throughout the entire Big 10 season--all the teams, all the games. Which team looked better couldn't be less relevant; Penn State actually won the championship. Then the committee chose to send an Ohio State team that was sitting at home during the Big 10 championship game on to the so-called playoff.


And that championship is expressly not a qualifier for the playoff, unlike the ALCS. Live by the rules, die by the rules.
   19. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 02, 2017 at 08:27 PM (#5570259)
So a Big Ten team who goes 9-4(8-1) should go the playoff over a team who went 11-1(8-1) if they won the Big Ten Championship?
   20. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 02, 2017 at 09:17 PM (#5570280)
Imagine if the Yankees had beaten Houston in game seven of the ALCS. Houston looked like the better team on the year, so should they still have gone on to the World Series in that case? Of course not; that's not how a playoff works.

Yeah, so like I said your position is that non-conference games don't count. Which is stupid on its face.
   21. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 02, 2017 at 09:19 PM (#5570284)
So a Big Ten team who goes 9-4(8-1) should go the playoff over a team who went 11-1(8-1) if they won the Big Ten Championship?

the committee has a provision to prevent that specific situation. basically, teams that the committee does not think are comparable do not have to be compared. it's supposed to keep teams like 12-0 western michigan out of the way, but the committee has decided to use it much more liberally.

they erroneously cited that provision last year to keep penn state out of the playoff in favor of ohio state and/or washington. i didn't have a problem with penn state being kept out of the playoffs on the merits*, but the committee used a shortcut and that was bullshit.


*i was PSU's loudest advocate last year, but ohio state had a better record, a better out of conference win and they didn't lose a game by 40. PSU had the head to head win and the conference championship. i thought that was enough to put PSU into the conversation, but the committee disagreed.
   22. Brian C Posted: November 02, 2017 at 09:41 PM (#5570293)
So a Big Ten team who goes 9-4(8-1) should go the playoff over a team who went 11-1(8-1) if they won the Big Ten Championship?

My favored solution would be to expand the conferences even more, make all regular season games intra-conference, and then allow only conference champions into the playoffs. And then #### Notre Dame if they decide to stay independent.

I think that's eventually where we're headed, more or less. If anyone in the Big XII decides to become a conference free agent - rumors were that Oklahoma was close a few years ago - that conference will collapse and we'll see a truly epic conference realignment, I think. As it is, though, that conference isn't really viable long-term.
   23. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 02, 2017 at 10:12 PM (#5570306)
So the Big Ten has to take on all the crappy MAC schools to the detriment in every way to their current member schools, and for what reason?
   24. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 02, 2017 at 10:28 PM (#5570316)
So the Big Ten has to take on all the crappy MAC schools to the detriment in every way to their current member schools, and for what reason?
ideally, they'd take the northern ACC schools (pitt, syracuse, virginia, virginia tech, boston college), with the SEC east merging with the ACC remnants, the SEC west merging with the big 12, a handful of leftovers (missouri, nebraska, texas tech, kansas, kansas state) moving to the pac 12 and rutgers and notre dame getting screwed.

the biggest problem with that is geographic footprints. conferences want to have as large a footprint as possible because it drives tv revenues and recruiting, but that growth seems even more untenable when you get to 16 team conferences.
   25. Nero Wolfe, Indeed Posted: November 03, 2017 at 03:00 AM (#5570363)
Anything that screws Notre Dame is a wonderful thing. Make it so.
   26. . . . . . . . . . . Posted: November 03, 2017 at 06:14 AM (#5570366)
It’s not that hard to get to 16 team conferences pretty easily if everything goes to ####, because the stupid petty ‘rules’ of realignment will fall away. Ie if the ACC truly collapses, either de novo or as a knock on from a Big 12 collapse, you’ll likely see the SEC pick up FSU and Clemson not withstanding the ######## of UF and USC, and the B1G likely picks up either both of the Catholics (more likely) or the Virginia schools. That sets up the old SWAC that isn’t in the SEC to bolt to the Pac 10 (since it can take 4, likely UT, OU, OSU, and then a wildcard that could be Kansas or a second tier Texas program).

You’re left over with a rump fifth conference that doesn’t autoqual for the playoff. But it’s mostly basketball-first majors: Missouri, the NC schools, maybe Kansas, maybe the VA schools, WV, whatever is leftover in TX, and some NE schools. Those are the schools that get screwed, but there’s not a good way around that, especially if the NC schools stay as a bloc (either A&M or Arkansas might follow OU and UT to the Pac10, opening up a spot for UNC or Miami in the SEC). 64 spots available for maybe 72 schools that really give a #### about football.

   27. Brian C Posted: November 03, 2017 at 01:41 PM (#5570637)
So the Big Ten has to take on all the crappy MAC schools to the detriment in every way to their current member schools, and for what reason?

I have no idea how you arrived at that conclusion from what I wrote. Indeed, since the MAC is not relevant when it comes to the playoff the way it is, I don't see how they're relevant at all to this discussion.

64 spots available for maybe 72 schools that really give a #### about football.

You could solve this problem, too, by simply expanding to 18-team conferences.

Actually, college football strikes me as an ideal sport for a relegation-style regime. Create a "Playoff League" of maybe 64 teams in 4 conferences that are eligible for the playoff. The remaining FBS teams have conference "affiliations" and can be promoted to the Playoff League based on their performance and the crummy Vanderbilts of the world have to up their game or get demoted.
   28. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 03, 2017 at 04:13 PM (#5570753)
i think alabama gets the benefit of the doubt if they're undefeated and lose in the SEC championship game.
I agree. I think they get the benefit of the doubt; I'm just not sure they deserve it as much as Georgia.
i don't think it's likely that georgia gets that same benefit.
If ND wins out, or even if they just lose 1 more, I disagree.
   29. Mike Webber Posted: November 03, 2017 at 05:19 PM (#5570788)
there are still 13 power five teams left with 0- or 1-loss. do people here think that everyone else is out of the running for a playoff spot?


Who can get in with 2 losses? And by this I mean every year, not on 2017 specifically.

The SEC Champion
The Big Ten Champ, with a few exceptions - Indiana, Rutgers, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue...
The ACC Champ if it is Clemson, Fla St or Miami.
The Big 12 Champ if it is OU or Texas
The Pac 12 Champ if it is USC
Notre Dame
Alabama

There are plenty of teams that I don't think can make it in even if they only lose one game, unless there are only four teams with one loss or less.
   30. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: November 03, 2017 at 07:02 PM (#5570828)
And then #### Notre Dame if they decide to stay independent.

#### Notre Dame regardless of their decision to stay independent or join a conference.
   31. Brian C Posted: November 04, 2017 at 01:41 PM (#5570975)
So if I'm interviewing for the next Florida coach, I get his reaction to this play that just happened:

Gators down 28-3 to freaking Missouri but have the ball at the Mizzou 18 with 0:27 left in the half. It is 3rd and 15.

What kind of play do you call? If you're Doug Nussmeier, the current OC, the answer of course is "halfback screen wide left," which is what happens. Gators lose a yard on a play, because as all Gator fans know, the team is determined to set at least a school record for negative-yardage pass completions this year, which is only difficult because the bar has been set so high over the previous 7 years.

I know MacElwain's gone, and Shannon clearly isn't an answer to a question worth asking, so even though it's a play that's completely unforgivable, in most ways it's hardly worth complaining. Still, like I say, if I'm interviewing coaches, I'm showing them that play. Any candidate that doesn't immediately want to throw up can politely be excused from further consideration.
   32. Brian C Posted: November 04, 2017 at 02:03 PM (#5570981)
Gators follow that up by burning two timeouts on the opening drive of the second half, getting to the Missou 1 on 1st and goal before ending up 3rd and 11, then kicking a field goal after a 3-yard Zaire scramble. At this point they're just chasing potential coaches away.
   33. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: November 04, 2017 at 02:08 PM (#5570982)
UF-Mizzou is clearly getting the ESPN D-team, but I'm amused by the bluntness of the color commentator after Shannon decided to kick the field goal. After the PBP guy suggested Shannon might have been trying to build up the team's confidence by keeping the score as close as possible, the color guy came back with "Lame!"

Then, the sideline reporter said that the Florida sideline was celebrating the field goal as a huge victory, and the color guy responded, "Lame!"
   34. Brian C Posted: November 04, 2017 at 02:14 PM (#5570986)
UF-Mizzou is clearly getting the ESPN D-team, but I'm amused by the bluntness of the color commentator after Shannon decided to kick the field goal. After the PBP guy suggested Shannon might have been trying to build up the team's confidence by keeping the score as close as possible, the color guy came back with "Lame!"

What was especially amusing about that is that he then added, "I know that's not actually your opinion..." as if PBP guy was just playing devil's advocate. But it sure sounded to me that PBP guy really did prefer getting a field goal there.
   35. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 02:24 PM (#5570989)
Great. The weather delay in East Lansing is going to push yet another game of interest into the late window.
   36. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: November 04, 2017 at 02:46 PM (#5570995)
Who can get in with 2 losses? And by this I mean every year, not on 2017 specifically.

The SEC Champion
The Big Ten Champ, with a few exceptions - Indiana, Rutgers, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue...
The ACC Champ if it is Clemson, Fla St or Miami.
The Big 12 Champ if it is OU or Texas
The Pac 12 Champ if it is USC
Notre Dame
Alabama
No 2 loss team has made it yet, and it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for any 2 loss team to make a 4 team playoff in the future.
   37. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 04, 2017 at 04:22 PM (#5571025)
So I'm in Oklahoma & I can't watch Bedlam without FS1. Regular Fox is giving us Stanford-WSU; a game surely no Oklahoman without money involved will be watching.

What would be wrong with a situation where local games are on the main network & distant games on affiliates? Why can't Fox do this?
   38. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 04:46 PM (#5571031)
No 2 loss team has made it yet, and it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for any 2 loss team to make a 4 team playoff in the future.

"It hasn't happened in three whole years!" doesn't mean much. Going through the BCS era, there'd have very likely been a two-loss team in the top four in 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007. Actually, 2007 is a certainty. There are also arguments to be made in 2002 and 2004. I'm through 10 years and it's becoming tedious, so I'm gonna stop. But the bar for "extraordinary set of circumstances" seems pretty low.
   39. Meatwad in mourning Posted: November 04, 2017 at 05:39 PM (#5571048)
The way some,of the games are going today we just might end up with a 2 loss team in the playoffs.
   40. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 04, 2017 at 05:53 PM (#5571059)

My favored solution would be to expand the conferences even more, make all regular season games intra-conference, and then allow only conference champions into the playoffs.


Doesn't work. I hear so many people asking for more/better matchups, all the while not understanding that the economics of college football require the major powers to have 7 home games and 5 road games each season. If you have every game be in-conference, there's no way to make that work unless you require incoming teams to play more road games than home games each year.
   41. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 04, 2017 at 06:11 PM (#5571060)
Well, at least I'm not missing any excitement...
   42. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 06:15 PM (#5571062)
For such a boring team and coach, Iowa games certainly produce plenty of drama.
   43. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: November 04, 2017 at 06:38 PM (#5571071)
Looks like a bad decision by the Buckeyes to send the JV team to Iowa
   44. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: November 04, 2017 at 06:41 PM (#5571073)
Not this isn't a rare case where it's probably best to run out the clock in tie game late, but Pat Fitzgerald is utterly allergic to two-minute drills.
   45. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:01 PM (#5571084)
Apparently, the aversion to late tie-game action is because the Cats are an OT team.
   46. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:08 PM (#5571087)
Coach Fitz's strategy is to play for the tie, then smoke 'em in overtime. Northwestern is the first team ever to win three straight games in OT.
   47. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:11 PM (#5571089)
FERENTZ HAS HUNG DOUBLE-NICKELS ON URBAN!
   48. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:12 PM (#5571091)
What's worse than getting embarrassed? Because that's what is happening to Ohio State. Yeesh.

Really surprising year in the B1G thus far, just when the narrative changes, it changes again. Thank goodness for poor Indiana's longtime consistency in looking like it's about to get over some kind of hump, but ultimately not doing it.
   49. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:19 PM (#5571092)
Last three plays of Clemson-NC State: pass breakup by Clemson at the goal line, illegal shift negating a 4th-and-10 conversion for NC State, interception at the gun.

So the list of prospective one-loss playoff teams that've been saddled with a second loss holds at two. Bedlam will make three.
   50. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:23 PM (#5571093)
HOPES FOR PLAYOFF BERTHS

P12: Washington or bust

B10: Wisconsin or bust
   51. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:28 PM (#5571094)
Coastal Carolina stupidly kicked an extra point to lead Arkansas 38-25 in the fourth quarter. Two Arkansas touchdowns later, it's 39-38 with 1:55 to go.
   52. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:30 PM (#5571095)
penn state doesn't deserve any benefit of the doubt after losing the last two weeks, but biff tannen got buried in less #### than they did. after getting beat by an ohio state that A) was at home, B) coming off a bye and C) had a QB that didn't throw a 2nd half incompletion, they got beat by michigan state that A) was at home, B) in a damned monsoon, C) with a 3.5 hour lightning delay and D) on a last second FG.


there's never a good way for a potentially great season to get blown up, but these circumstances feel particularly shitty.
   53. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:35 PM (#5571096)
I realize that the Badgers really haven't played anyone - and have hardly looked dominant even with the cakewalk schedule they've had, but I do feel like they're better than they're getting credit. It's by no means a good year for the B1G, but it just feels like there aren't any really bad teams.

I think the Badgers are better than they're getting credit for.
   54. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:37 PM (#5571097)
That said, in would be pure conference homerism to claim that any B1G title winner except an undefeated Wisconsin deserves to be in... I'm sure I'll do it anyway if not, but I think Wisconsin wins out.
   55. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:41 PM (#5571098)
(Looks at Wiscy's schedule for the first time this season.)

Oh wow, it really is as unimpressive as people are saying. Don't get me wrong: Wins are wins, and by healthy margins. But the best opponent they've played is Northwestern. Srsly, FAU may be second.
   56. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:46 PM (#5571099)
Wisconsin's best win so far looks like it's over Northwestern, but if they win out, they will have beaten Michigan, an Iowa team that just destroyed Ohio State, and either Ohio State or Michigan State in the B1G championship. If they survive all that (and I doubt that they do), they will have earned a trip to the playoff.
   57. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:47 PM (#5571100)
Wisconsin's schedule is basically "well, Purdue played Louisville tight" and "Maryland beat Texas" and "Northwestern beat Michigan State"
   58. Brian C Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:48 PM (#5571101)
there's never a good way for a potentially great season to get blown up, but these circumstances feel particularly shitty.

On the other hand, they also avoided getting their season blown up earlier with a miracle win against Iowa. Seems like their luck is closer to evening out then you're letting on. Certainly it's close enough that complaining about their bad luck is a bit gauche.
   59. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:49 PM (#5571103)
If they survive all that ... they will have earned a trip to the playoff.
Concur.
(and I doubt that they do)
Also concur.
   60. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:50 PM (#5571104)
What sort of odds could you have got in August for "Both RichRod and Graham will save their jobs?"
   61. Howie Menckel Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:50 PM (#5571105)
It's by no means a good year for the B1G, but it just feels like there aren't any really bad teams.

just like last year, when Clemson squeaked out a 31-0 win over division runnerup Ohio State in the playoff.
   62. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:53 PM (#5571107)
Pokes can't get off the field on long third downs.
   63. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:54 PM (#5571108)
If you think you're going to bait me into defending or otherwise taking anything but joy in the missteps of Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes, you are sadly mistaken.
   64. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 04, 2017 at 07:54 PM (#5571109)
Speaking of the Big Ten, I'm shocked by what a disaster Lovie Smith has been at Illinois.
   65. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:01 PM (#5571112)
Pokes can't get off the field on long third downs.

Until they pick Mayfield off in the end zone on 3rd-and-goal from the 12.

Trailing 55-52 with 2:59 left on their own 35.
   66. Brian C Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:05 PM (#5571113)
Speaking of the Big Ten, I'm shocked by what a disaster Lovie Smith has been at Illinois.

I've been thinking the same thing. I mean, he never seemed like a great fit to me - he doesn't seem like a guy whose idea of a fulfilling professional life is recruiting and babysitting college-aged kids - but I figured he'd at least have his guys playing hard, he'd put together a decent defense, and they'd be a little spiky. Basically, the position in the B1G that Northwestern and Iowa typically take up.

But instead they're worse than ever, and if he has any actual interest in the job, he's doing a good job of keeping it to himself.
   67. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:12 PM (#5571114)
Oklahoma commits targeting on a deflected interception, and the officials say it happened after the change of possession when it clearly did not. That aspect of the play supposedly can't be reviewed, but under the "egregious error" provision it's overturned.

Ball on the OU 40 with 1:45 left.
   68. Brian C Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:15 PM (#5571115)
Oklahoma commits targeting on a deflected interception, and the officials say it happened after the change of possession when it clearly did not. That aspect of the play supposedly can't be reviewed, but under the "egregious error" provision it's overturned.

I didn't really love the targeting call there, to be honest. It wasn't quite clear to me that the initial contact wasn't with the shoulder.

I really didn't love the Cowboys going for the homerun on 4th and 8, though. I know they've been connecting deep all day but sometimes you just need a first down.
   69. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:18 PM (#5571116)
Lost in all this will be that Oklahoma had a saving ankle tackle on the second play of that possession that turned a 65-yard touchdown into a 20-yard gain.
   70. Brian C Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:22 PM (#5571117)
Some may say that OU shouldn't have scored that last TD - they could have run the clock out with the first down. But regardless of how one comes down on that question, I think actually kicking the extra point was the real risk in that situation. It's still a 2-possession game if you take a knee instead of kicking, but if OSU blocks the XP and runs it back, it's only a seven point game.
   71. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:29 PM (#5571118)
#### right off with that Hurts-for-the-Heisman garbage, Gary Danielson.
   72. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:31 PM (#5571119)
MSU beats UM and PSU, but I'm sure they didn't really deserve either of them!
   73. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:40 PM (#5571122)
On the other hand, they also avoided getting their season blown up earlier with a miracle win against Iowa. Seems like their luck is closer to evening out then you're letting on. Certainly it's close enough that complaining about their bad luck is a bit gauche.
i agree. the first thing i said was "penn state doesn't deserve any benefit of the doubt" for (mostly) that reason.

   74. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:49 PM (#5571123)
MSU beats UM and PSU, but I'm sure they didn't really deserve either of them!


If everybody only got the wins the deserved, I think everybody in the B1G except maybe Illinois would be .500.
   75. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 04, 2017 at 08:55 PM (#5571124)
Wisconsin's best win so far looks like it's over Northwestern, but if they win out, they will have beaten Michigan, an Iowa team that just destroyed Ohio State, and either Ohio State or Michigan State in the B1G championship. If they survive all that (and I doubt that they do), they will have earned a trip to the playoff.

Wisconsin is basically Iowa from a couple of years ago - undefeated, but missed all of the big names in the B1G regular season schedule due to the quirks that happen when you have too many teams for everyone to play everyone else.

This is the same thing everyone said about Iowa - if they win out, and win the B1G title game, then they'll get in. I suspect that's true, which I guess means it's time to start talking to your kids about an undefeated Wisconsin.
   76. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 09:02 PM (#5571126)
time to start talking to your kids about an undefeated Wisconsin.
That video slayed me.
   77. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 09:33 PM (#5571132)
A Colorado receiver just dropped the easiest TD bomb you may ever see.
   78. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 09:48 PM (#5571136)
And another TD drop, this a bit tougher.
   79. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 10:22 PM (#5571141)
14 consecutive punts in Texas-TCU. For the love of Boykin.
   80. CraigK Posted: November 04, 2017 at 10:44 PM (#5571145)
"And Arkansas beats Coastal Carolina by...one point? One ####### point that's all they won by?"
"You can't say \"####### on the air"
"Don't worry nobody's listening"
   81. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 04, 2017 at 11:02 PM (#5571146)
Etling's had like four guys open deep and hasn't hit any of them.
   82. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 04, 2017 at 11:44 PM (#5571151)
CU finally got its TD bomb.
   83. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 05, 2017 at 12:52 AM (#5571157)
ASU can clinch a bowl bid *next week*, thanks to a serious show of heart tonight. This season has been a hell of a coaching job by Graham.
   84. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 05, 2017 at 01:39 AM (#5571161)
40 minutes of disappointment, and suddenly Khalil Tate comes alive.
   85. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 05, 2017 at 01:11 AM (#5571163)
Arizona was sitting on six points through 40 minutes. Tate breaks a long touchdown run, and a switch is flipped, leading to four touchdowns in about 11:30. 35-35 with 8:23 to go.
   86. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 05, 2017 at 01:16 AM (#5571164)
That may have been Darnold's best drive of the season.
   87. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 05, 2017 at 01:35 AM (#5571165)
Ugh. Stay up this late with hope of an exciting finish only to have it turn into a wet fart. World's dumbest interception followed by world's worst run defense followed by world's butteriest hands.
   88. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 08, 2017 at 01:12 AM (#5572738)
 1 Georgia                    @ Auburn                Kentucky          @ Georgia Tech
 2 Alabama                    @ Mississippi State     Mercer            @ Auburn
 3 Notre Dame                 @ Miami (FL)            Navy              @ Stanford
 4 Clemson                    Florida State           The Citadel       @ South Carolina
 5 Oklahoma                   TCU                     @ Kansas          West Virginia
 6 TCU                        @ Oklahoma              @ Texas Tech      Baylor
 7 Miami (FL)                 Notre Dame              Virginia          @ Pittsburgh
 8 Wisconsin                  Iowa                    Michigan          @ Minnesota
 9 Washington                 @ Stanford              Utah              Washington State
10 Auburn                     Georgia                 LA-Monroe         Alabama
11 USC                        @ Colorado              UCLA              ---
12 Michigan State             @ Ohio State            Maryland          @ Rutgers
13 Ohio State                 Michigan State          Illinois          @ Michigan
14 Penn State                 Rutgers                 Nebraska          @ Maryland
15 Oklahoma State             @ Iowa State            Kansas State      Kansas
16 Mississippi State          Alabama                 @ Arkansas        Ole Miss
17 Virginia Tech              @ Georgia Tech          Pittsburgh        @ Virginia
18 Central Florida            Connecticut             @ Temple          South Florida
19 Washington State           @ Utah                  ---               @ Washington
20 Iowa                       @ Wisconsin             Purdue            @ Nebraska
21 Iowa State                 Oklahoma State          @ Baylor          @ Kansas State
22 Memphis                    ---                     SMU               East Carolina
23 NC State                   @ Boston College        @ Wake Forest     North Carolina
24 LSU                        Arkansas                @ Tennessee       Texas A&M
25 Northwestern               Purdue                  Minnesota         @ Illinois
   89. Mike Webber Posted: November 08, 2017 at 04:19 PM (#5573147)
Does Notre Dame play in the ACC title game? I'm assuming they don't, but it would be awesome to watch the fall out of the playoff, if they got pushed out of the top 4 the way the Big 12 has the past couple of years, because they didn't play a 13th game.

I mean they'll be OK if TCU is the one playing and winning the 13th game, but if it's OU, or Wazzo, there will be much justification and rending of clothes and sitting in ashes and so forth.
   90. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 11, 2017 at 02:14 AM (#5574449)
Notre Dame doesn't play in the ACC championship. Its agreement is for five games a year and access to ACC bowls below the Orange.


Washington's attempt at a game-tying drive was blown up by the most ridiculous phantom holding penalty you'll ever see. And then Jake Browning finished it off by attempting a hopeless scramble on 4th-and-21. He got flushed to the right, found himself near the line of scrimmage and started drifting parallel to it as the play-by-play guy said, "Can't run for it," then he sort of half-heartedly went for it and got about five yards before he had to start dodging tackles. Just spectacularly dumb, but only barely his dumbest play of the night. Had an earlier 18-yard sack that was a doozy.
   91. Mike Webber Posted: November 11, 2017 at 11:09 AM (#5574477)
I'll be at the K-State game hosting WVU today. When you see it's stopped in a rain delay, or see a highlight of a WVU receiver running in the rain for a 60-yard TD, just know that I'm somewhere soaking wet wondering why I decided to take my family to this game.
   92. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: November 11, 2017 at 12:36 PM (#5574487)
Florida's not relevant at this point, but you still have to be amused by the first quarter at South Carolina:

1. Gators go three and out on first drive
2. South Carolina scores TD on first drive
3. Gators punt on second drive
4. South Carolina throws interception deep in its own territory, but UF cornerback is stripped of the ball as he goes into the end zone. South Carolina recovers.
5. South Carolina eventually has to punt. Brandon Powell muffs it, South Carolina recovers deep in Florida territory.
6. South Carolina throws an interception in the endzone on the very next play

Eventful first 10 minutes!
   93. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 11, 2017 at 01:34 PM (#5574495)
Re: an 11-1 ND, there's no way they get jumped by the Big 12 champ, Clemson, and Wisconsin. I think an undefeated Wisconsin gets left out there, not that I expect all those teams to win out. 11-1 ND's only worry would have to be a close Bama win over an undefeated Georgia.
   94. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 11, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5574498)
It's all moot though, because obviously a 2 loss Ohio State is going to find its way in by winning out and one of

-The winner of OU/TCU losing in the Big XII title game
-Auburn plays SEC spoiler
-ND/Clemson/Miami screw each other with Stanford playing the role of BC '93 vs ND.
   95. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 11, 2017 at 04:10 PM (#5574538)
Leading 49-42 with three minutes left, Oklahoma State punted on 4th-and-1. Because in a 49-42 game you obviously want to put the game on your defense.

It ended up working out as Iowa State woefully underthrew a fade for an interception on 2nd-and-goal from the three.
   96. Voodoo Posted: November 11, 2017 at 04:47 PM (#5574551)
It ended up working out as Iowa State woefully underthrew a fade for an interception on 2nd-and-goal from the three.


Looked like it may have been a simultaneous catch, and therefore a touchdown... I'm not convinced of that but it was very close.
   97. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 11, 2017 at 04:59 PM (#5574555)
I suspect Auburn will come to regret not finishing drives.


Also, the CBS all-22 coverage...leaves much to be desired. Specifically, about 10 of the alleged 22 on most passing plays, as the offensive backfield is nowhere to be seen.
   98. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 11, 2017 at 04:59 PM (#5574556)
Well, that's one way to avoid kicking field goals.
   99. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 11, 2017 at 05:55 PM (#5574561)
Georgia today:

Underthrow of what would have been a walk-in touchdown after the Auburn corner fell down.
Leaping penalty on a punt to extend Auburn's first touchdown drive.
Allowed immediate pressure on a fleaflicker that would've been a sure touchdown if Fromm had been able to get the throw away.
Muffed a punt setting up Auburn's second touchdown.
   100. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 11, 2017 at 06:31 PM (#5574566)
Clemson threatening to blow a 17-0 lead at home to FSU. Got away with busting two coverages when Blackman overthrew his receivers; didn't get away with leaving the tight end alone on a fleaflicker off a reverse, making it 17-14 mid-fourth. And the Tiger offense has been AWOL the entire second half.
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