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Thursday, November 01, 2018

OT - November* 2018 College Football thread

* As is tradition, the November thread runs through Championship Week before giving way to the Bowl Spectacular.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 01, 2018 at 06:27 AM | 231 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: college football, off-topic

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   101. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 06, 2018 at 09:41 PM (#5783325)
 1 Alabama                    Mississippi State     The Citadel          Auburn                Georgia (n)
 2 Clemson                    @ Boston College      Duke                 South Carolina
 3 Notre Dame                 Florida State         Syracuse (n)         @ USC
 4 Michigan                   @ Rutgers             Indiana              @ Ohio State
 5 Georgia                    Auburn                UMass                Georgia Tech          Alabama (n)
 6 Oklahoma                   Oklahoma State        Kansas               @ West Virginia
 7 LSU                        @ Arkansas            Rice                 @ Texas A&M
 8 Washington State           @ Colorado            Arizona              Washington
 9 West Virginia              TCU                   @ Oklahoma State     Oklahoma
10 Ohio State                 @ Michigan State      @ Maryland           Michigan
11 Kentucky                   @ Tennessee           Middle Tennessee     @ Louisville
12 Central Florida            Navy                  Cincinnati           @ South Florida
13 Syracuse                   Louisville            Notre Dame (n)       @ Boston College
14 NC State                   Wake Forest           @ Louisville         @ North Carolina      East Carolina
15 Florida                    South Carolina        Idaho                @ Florida State
16 Mississippi State          @ Alabama             Arkansas             @ Ole Miss
17 Boston College             Clemson               @ Florida State      Syracuse
18 Michigan State             Ohio State            @ Nebraska           Rutgers
19 Texas                      @ Texas Tech          Iowa State           @ Kansas
20 Penn State                 Wisconsin             @ Rutgers            Maryland
21 Iowa                       Northwestern          @ Illinois           Nebraska
22 Iowa State                 Baylor                @ Texas              Kansas State          Incarnate Word
23 Fresno State               @ Boise State         San Diego State      San Jose State
24 Auburn                     @ Georgia             Liberty              @ Alabama
25 Washington                 ---                   Oregon State         @ Washington State
   102. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2018 at 02:45 AM (#5783496)
BCS continues its love affair with Syracuse. Just because they have 2 losses doesn't mean they are any good, and unlike the other 2-loss power-5s, their 2-loss record wasn't particularly difficult to achieve considering their soft schedule.

On the other end of the scale, they still hate Washington, despite being probably one of the best 3-loss teams in the country and having played a fairly difficult schedule.

Doesn't really matter though, because it's all about the 0 and 1-loss teams, the only thing that the BCS really seems to care about (after all this time, back where we started more or less).

There are only 9 teams with any chance to win the national title (8 if you don't count WSU), and at least 2 of them will be eliminated in head-to-heads: OU/WVU and UM/OSU. That leaves 7 (or 6). Of those 6, it's very likely at least 2 more will lose, leaving the committee really only having to eliminate a single team. A harder bet is what happens if only 3 teams finish with 0 or 1 loss, or if WSU finishes with 1 loss and someone like Georgia finishes with 2 losses after losing to Alabama in the SEC title.

In
   103. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 07, 2018 at 10:46 AM (#5783592)
On the other end of the scale, they still hate Washington, despite being probably one of the best 3-loss teams in the country and having played a fairly difficult schedule.
Eh, that loss to Cal was atrocious. If it has just been the Auburn and Oregon losses, I'd be with you, but Cal exposed them for pretenders.

WSU is out of luck. They would need all of the following:

Alabama over Georgia (OK, that's pretty likely)
Oklahoma/West Virginia split (knocking both down to two losses)
Upset in B1G title game (ha!)
Committee to prefer them over Georgia and LSU (50/50 at best)

I suppose it's possible ND loses badly at USC, but I've seen USC play; it's not going to happen. ND could probably weather losing to Syracuse and still be ahead of WSU.

This ends your PNW edition of OT-NCAAF.
   104. McCoy Posted: November 07, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5783596)
I fully expect Notre Dame to blow it before the end of the regular season. They always do.
   105. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 07, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5783670)
Eh, that loss to Cal was atrocious. If it has just been the Auburn and Oregon losses, I'd be with you, but Cal exposed them for pretenders.
I'm not going to argue, exactly, since I haven't seen a single minute of Washington play this year. That said, the stats for the game were very even, and Cal is a fairly bad but not a horrible team. Most 2- and 3-loss teams probably have games equally bad (by the stats) on their resume.
   106. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 07, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5783680)
Washington (read: Browning) can play very well for bits, but doesn't have the consistency that a contending team should have. They have an above average defense with a couple of stellar players but they ain't 'Bama.

WSU has been much better on both sides of the ball; the way they play they would be likely to at least make losing to Alabama entertaining. Too bad we'll never know. Although WSU-tOSU in the Rose Bowl would be fun.

Are we doomed to Alabama-Clemson in the playoffs for years to come? Kinda seems that way. Neither is going to lose to anyone else, right?
   107. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 08, 2018 at 07:41 PM (#5784615)
NC State returns the opening kick to midfield, goes three-and-out, punts. Wake tries to pick up a rolling ball and muffs it to NC State at the 12, followed by another three-and-out and field goal.

2:18 in, and I already want to turn off this garbage game.
   108. . . . . . . Posted: November 08, 2018 at 07:47 PM (#5784617)
Are we doomed to Alabama-Clemson in the playoffs for years to come? Kinda seems that way. Neither is going to lose to anyone else, right?


This is why it’s high time college football instituted a salary cap.
   109. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 09, 2018 at 10:26 PM (#5785287)
It is delightfully uncomfortable watching Syracuse play its tail off for Babers while Louisville has totally quit on Bobby Petrino.

I feel for the kids, but I'm so happy he's going out this way. It might take Brohm a few years to dig the program out of the tire fire Petrino is gonna leave behind. The program is going to be in a lot of trouble financially with his buyout and Lamar Jackson papered over years of otherwise poor player development.
   110. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 01:12 AM (#5785305)
Fresno State led Boise State 17-3 in the third quarter and has now given up three successive touchdowns to fall behind with 9:22 left in the fourth.
   111. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: November 10, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5785376)
In a delightfully unexpected turn of events, Florida's offense is playing well, while the defense is making things oh so easy for South Carolina.
   112. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: November 10, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5785383)
And Muschamp going ultra-conservative at the end of the half for no reason. Ah, memories.
   113. Brian C Posted: November 10, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5785385)
In a delightfully unexpected turn of events, Florida's offense is playing well, while the defense is making things oh so easy for South Carolina.

I don't know if I'd go so far as to say they're playing well. They're playing well enough to keep them in it. They're entirely reliant on nickel-and-diming their way down the field, and accordingly they've had a hard time sustaining drives. Fortunately the defense woke up after the first two SC drives.

These ESPN announcers are beyond inane. I mean, almost all football announcers are bad but these guys are bottom-scrapers.

ETA: Also fortunately, Muschamp is as usual determined to keep the score close enough for his team to lose no matter what.
   114. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: November 10, 2018 at 01:42 PM (#5785394)
I don't know if I'd go so far as to say they're playing well


Been down so long don't know what up is, man.
   115. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5785395)
Not appreciating Dantonio's "try to draw them offsides, then call a timeout, then leave it to a college kicker" gambit on 4th-and-inches from the 26 with over 30 seconds left in the half.
   116. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 10, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5785401)
Not appreciating Dantonio's "try to draw them offsides, then call a timeout, then leave it to a college kicker" gambit on 4th-and-inches from the 26 with over 30 seconds left in the half.
Don't forget, and as an underdog and already down 7. They really should have gone for it.
   117. Brian C Posted: November 10, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5785404)
Toney might be my most-disliked "good" player the Gators have ever had. I know that returning punts isn't his usual gig, but good grief.
   118. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5785421)
What the ####.

The intentional safety seems to be Dantonio declaring "If we give them a short field and they kick a field goal, my offense can't possibly overcome a four-point deficit."
   119. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: November 10, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5785426)
Really, really impressive comeback for a much-maligned offense and quarterback. This was the offense I thought Mullen would run before the season started - run heavy, relying heavily on a good running back stable and Franks' size and athleticism.

Wish I could say I had a ton of faith in the defense to hold this, but at least USC(e) needs a touchdown.
   120. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 02:56 PM (#5785428)
Good grief. Michigan State's offense only needed not to shoot its dick off.
   121. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5785431)
Wisconsin trails by 12 late and is running the ball into the line repeatedly, such is the confidence in Coan.
   122. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 03:06 PM (#5785434)
I honestly don't know what Greg McElroy's talking about. Bentley had his man and threw the ball a mile behind him, and he's making it out to be some kind of brilliant defensive play.
   123. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5785439)
Wisconsin trails by 12 late and is running the ball into the line repeatedly, such is the confidence in Coan.

Screen pass on 3rd-and-goal from the 18. Might as well just forfeit any time Hornibrook is out.
   124. Brian C Posted: November 10, 2018 at 03:18 PM (#5785443)
I'll say this for the Gators - they may not be very good in a lot of ways, and the focus may come and go, but you gotta make sure they're dead.
   125. Brian C Posted: November 10, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5785446)
I honestly don't know what Greg McElroy's talking about. Bentley had his man and threw the ball a mile behind him, and he's making it out to be some kind of brilliant defensive play.

Agreed. But McElroy seems to see things through rose-colored QB eyes.

He spent the rest of the game talking about Franks as if Franks is a barely functional manic-depressive, without seeming to realize quite how odd that sounded.
   126. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 03:55 PM (#5785459)
Wonderful to see replay not doing its job in Tuscaloosa.
   127. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 05:08 PM (#5785495)
If Clanga doesn't score after that phantom block in the back...
   128. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 10, 2018 at 06:38 PM (#5785532)
Cats 9 minutes from winning the B1G West...
   129. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 06:38 PM (#5785533)
Bedlam living up to the name.

Okie State scores to tie the game at 41, then yanks the extra point.
   130. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 06:47 PM (#5785537)
Phantom hold torpedoes what was surely another Oklahoma scoring drive.
   131. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 10, 2018 at 07:02 PM (#5785540)
If Oklahoma manages to win this, now that they have the ball back, and Clemson, Georgia and LSU win as expected, there will only be two 2-loss Power-5 teams, one of which is Syracuse. That puts a very large divide between teams that have a shot at the playoff and the rest.
   132. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 10, 2018 at 07:08 PM (#5785541)
Northwestern clinches the West...

They can now play freshmen during the last two conference games.... and will have to, based on the injuries today.

Unreal.
   133. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 10, 2018 at 07:09 PM (#5785542)
Northwestern clinched the B1G West.

edit: sponsored beverage.
   134. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 07:20 PM (#5785544)
Pokes going for two with 1:03 left after scoring a 24-yard touchdown on 4th-and-12.
   135. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 07:21 PM (#5785546)
Horrific throw. Had it open.
   136. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 10, 2018 at 08:14 PM (#5785561)
They can now play freshmen during the last two conference games.... and will have to, based on the injuries today.


The upside of losing the whole secondary to injury is that they were all terrible anyway, expect for Hartage.
   137. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 10, 2018 at 08:26 PM (#5785566)
Ha, true. How about isiah bowser? That kid is like a K-mart Mike Alstott. I’m a fan. Just a solid north south guy.
   138. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 10, 2018 at 08:34 PM (#5785569)
It's amazing that less than a year ago he had no scholarship offers other than from NU, and now he's one of the best rushers in the Big Ten.
   139. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 10, 2018 at 09:16 PM (#5785580)
It's looking like none of the teams with a chance at the playoff will lose this week, and considering next week's soft schedule, it could easily happen again.

Probably the closest line will be for WVU at OK St. The only other road game is OSU at Maryland. The only ranked opponent is Syracuse (for ND), but the Orange aren't actually any good.
   140. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 10, 2018 at 09:24 PM (#5785583)
Auburn keeps punting from UGA territory, and getting almost no net yards out of it. This while down 10 on the road to a superior opponent.
   141. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 09:25 PM (#5785584)
Clemson has combined uselessness on third downs and a breakdown on punt coverage to turn a dominant performance into a 13-7 lead through 25 minutes.
   142. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 09:26 PM (#5785585)
And now Boston College commits uncalled kick-catch interference and recovers the alleged muff.
   143. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 10, 2018 at 09:27 PM (#5785586)
I see that BC has amassed 19 yards of offense so far. Only down 6 due to a long punt return.
   144. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 10, 2018 at 09:29 PM (#5785588)
BC's offense has been abysmal, but the 19 yards overstates it. There was an errant snap for -32.
   145. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 10, 2018 at 09:33 PM (#5785589)
With the ball on their own 2, and the play clock running down, Auburn calls a timeout. Because it would be so damaging to take the delay of game and move the ball back one yard.
   146. Stevey Posted: November 12, 2018 at 09:29 AM (#5785875)
As I finally get back to this thread about a week later

NDSU ceases to be a destination school in I-A. Two-star recruits from nearby states flock there to be winners in a way I doubt they would to be part of an okay Mountain West program.


The last time NDSU finished in the top 130 (i.e the number of 1-A teams) in recruting rankings was ... never. There certainly are going to be some 2 stars who would rather win a I-AA than lose every week at UConn, but more high school talent is still going to the latter.
   147. McCoy Posted: November 12, 2018 at 09:57 AM (#5785892)
Thank god Alabama is playing a tough team like Citadel this week or else we might think college football rankings are a joke.
   148. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 12, 2018 at 03:18 PM (#5786155)
if georgia, clemson and michigan win out, a 12-0 notre dame gets left out of the CFP, right?
   149. Quaker Posted: November 12, 2018 at 03:33 PM (#5786161)
Why would Notre Dame with a H2H win over Michigan (and the team Michigan will be playing in the B10 championship) possibly be left out of the playoff?
   150. stig-tossled, hornswoggled gef the typing mongoose Posted: November 12, 2018 at 03:38 PM (#5786166)
if georgia, clemson and michigan win out, a 12-0 notre dame gets left out of the CFP, right?


Not if TV has anything to say about it. Which I'm pretty sure it would.
   151. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 12, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5786167)
Either the Buckeyes or the Wildcats are going to make the ND/UM H2H moot... Much as I'm a B1G guy - the conference is likely to find themselves on the outside looking in this year.
   152. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: November 12, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5786190)
Either the Buckeyes or the Wildcats are going to make the ND/UM H2H moot... Much as I'm a B1G guy - the conference is likely to find themselves on the outside looking in this year.


A Michigan team after going into C-Bus and beating OSU would be a 12-14 point favorite in the B1G title game. Northwestern wouldn't stand a chance as long as Patterson is healthy. Well, maybe like a 15-20% chance. Not much.

According to ESPN's predictor UM is about 45% to make the playoff.

If OSU beats Michigan and then wins the B1G title game I think they will get left out and rightfully so. Only way B1G gets a team in is if Michigan wins out. In that case, assuming not much chaos, I have no idea how the selection committee wouldn't go Bama, Clemson, ND, UM. A B1G title team with a week one loss to another playoff team (on the road to boot) not getting in? That would be really bad optics and UM like ND is a huge national TV draw. Putting them in on merit and any sorta of "sexiness" rank would be a no-brainer. OK and Georgia don't move the needle like UM and ND nationally.
   153. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: November 12, 2018 at 04:26 PM (#5786192)
Dupe
   154. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 12, 2018 at 04:26 PM (#5786193)
A Michigan team after going into C-Bus and beating OSU would be a 12-14 point favorite in the B1G title game. Northwestern wouldn't stand a chance as long as Patterson is healthy. Well, maybe like a 15-20% chance. Not much.


The Cats are the 2018 NCAA stalking horse. They'll play anyone to within a score.... especially now that they've actually figured out a running game and aren't leaning on a middling pass protection line and inconsistent Thorson to move the ball.
   155. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: November 12, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5786196)
The Cats are the 2018 NCAA stalking horse. They'll play anyone to within a score.... especially now that they've actually figured out a running game and aren't leaning on a middling pass protection line and inconsistent Thorson to move the ball.


I hope to see it regardless of how it goes.

One game season at this point for Michigan. Get it done in C-Bus. There hasn't been a time since Harbaugh arrived where Michigan is clearly better than OSU entering the Game. This year they are, but C-Bus has been a house of horrors going on a decade now.
   156. . . . . . . Posted: November 12, 2018 at 05:40 PM (#5786235)
The Cats are the 2018 NCAA stalking horse. They'll play anyone to within a score.... especially now that they've actually figured out a running game and aren't leaning on a middling pass protection line and inconsistent Thorson to move the ball
.

NW is ####### terrible. They only look marginal because they play in such a terrible division. UM and OSU would both hang as many points on them as they felt like scoring. It's more likely that Thorson would suffer a career ending injury than NW would win the game.
   157. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 12, 2018 at 05:59 PM (#5786243)
Why would Notre Dame with a H2H win over Michigan (and the team Michigan will be playing in the B10 championship) possibly be left out of the playoff?

because michigan has won its last 5 games by a combined 185-54, including blowout wins over michigan state, penn state and wisconsin.
because michigan's road schedule includes two top 10 teams (10-0 UND, 9-1 tosu), plus 6-4 michigan state and 6-4 northwestern.
because notre dame's only true road games are 5-5 wake forest, 4-5 virginia tech and 5-5 USC.


oh, and in this scenario, putting 2 SEC teams (georgia and alabama) plus UND into the playoff would screw 3 entire conferences out of huge paychecks.
   158. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 12, 2018 at 06:41 PM (#5786256)
NW is ####### terrible. They only look marginal because they play in such a terrible division. UM and OSU would both hang as many points on them as they felt like scoring. It's more likely that Thorson would suffer a career ending injury than NW would win the game.


I guess that's why UM needed a 4Q TD to beat them by 3... back when NW's running game was basically "But doc, are you SURE Larkin's career is over?" and they didn't yet realize games last 60 minutes.
   159. TDF, trained monkey Posted: November 12, 2018 at 07:44 PM (#5786291)
Why would Notre Dame with a H2H win over Michigan (and the team Michigan will be playing in the B10 championship) possibly be left out of the playoff?

because michigan has won its last 5 games by a combined 185-54, including blowout wins over michigan state, penn state and wisconsin.
because michigan's road schedule includes two top 10 teams (10-0 UND, 9-1 tosu), plus 6-4 michigan state and 6-4 northwestern.
because notre dame's only true road games are 5-5 wake forest, 4-5 virginia tech and 5-5 USC.
Playing with 538's CF Projector, Michigan has to hope for an upset.

All of UM, Alabama, ND, Clemson, and Oklahoma win out and UM is on the outside looking in - the other 4 are 74%+ to make the playoffs, UM 47%. Replace Bama with UGA, and UM still has the 5th best odds.
Interestingly, replace UM with tOSU, and the Buckeyes have a better chance (72%) than either ND (63%) or OK (61%).
   160. Quaker Posted: November 12, 2018 at 07:45 PM (#5786292)
because michigan has won its last 5 games by a combined 185-54, including blowout wins over michigan state, penn state and wisconsin.
because michigan's road schedule includes two top 10 teams (10-0 UND, 9-1 tosu), plus 6-4 michigan state and 6-4 northwestern.
because notre dame's only true road games are 5-5 wake forest, 4-5 virginia tech and 5-5 USC.


Weird how Michigan gets credit for winning a "true road game" vs. Northwestern but Notre Dame doesn't. I guess it's only a "true road game" if you trail by 17 at some point in the contest?

Michigan & Notre Dame played. ND won. The Irish are getting into the playoff if they win out.

   161. Quaker Posted: November 12, 2018 at 07:57 PM (#5786298)
I don't believe the 538 projection. Michigan is already two spots ahead of OU, who just needed a failed 2-pt conversion to beat OkSt. I don't see how beating WVU twice (or whomever OU would play in the B12 championship) would resonate with the committee more than UMich beating OSU/NU.

I think Bama/UGA, Clemson, ND and UM all control their destinies. If it comes down to UM vs OU, it seems like UM would have the better loss, more time elapsed since their loss and probably the most highly regarded win. I guess there's a scenario where OU wins the B12 70-0 and UMich only sneaks by NU and then there's more of a real debate.
   162. Red Voodooin Posted: November 12, 2018 at 08:06 PM (#5786306)
Well, I'm hoping that Wazzu wins out and a couple surprises happen and then we can see the Cougs get slaughtered by the Bama/Clemson in the playoff.
   163. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 12, 2018 at 09:39 PM (#5786357)
All of UM, Alabama, ND, Clemson, and Oklahoma win out and UM is on the outside looking in - the other 4 are 74%+ to make the playoffs, UM 47%.


Yeah, that doesn't make any sense. UM winning out would mean not only a win in Columbus (and in the Big Ten Championship) but that their only loss was to an undefeated team that's also in the playoff. At what point is Oklahoma supposed to leapfrog them?
   164. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 12, 2018 at 10:27 PM (#5786370)
I don't believe it either. Unless Michigan wins out but somehow looks terrible AND wins on a Colorado 5th down play, I can't seem them missing out at this point if Alabama, ND, OU and Clemson win out. My guess is OU would be the odd-man out.

Maybe a harder call is a good looking Alabama losing the SEC in a classic to Georgia. Even then I bet Michigan gets it.
   165. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 13, 2018 at 01:28 AM (#5786402)
Weird how Michigan gets credit for winning a "true road game" vs. Northwestern but Notre Dame doesn't. I guess it's only a "true road game" if you trail by 17 at some point in the contest?

if you want to give them credit for it, okay; that's not a hill i need to die on.

i just think it's hard to call that a true road game when it's only a 90 minute trip and 2/3 of the crowd are rooting for UND.
   166. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 13, 2018 at 09:22 AM (#5786428)
Michigan beating Ohio State on a Colorado 5th down play would be a lot of fun.
   167. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5786456)
Wait people really think 1-loss Michigan, with a loss to ND, would go to the playoffs over undefeated ND?

If Alabama wins out, they are in.
If Clemson wins out, they are in.
If Notre Dame wins out, they are in.

If Michigan wins out, they are in, unless one-loss Georgia beats undefeated Alabama. I honestly don't know which two-of-three between UM/UGA/Alabama get in at that point. I'd guess Georgia, Alabama, Michigan in that order but I think it will come down to style points.
   168. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:09 AM (#5786461)
Harbaugh has never beaten the Buckeyes, has he?
   169. Quaker Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:11 AM (#5786462)
I would guess UGA and UMich get in in that scenario since the committee is supposed to value conference championships.
   170. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:16 AM (#5786464)

Wait people really think 1-loss Michigan, with a loss to ND, would go to the playoffs over undefeated ND?


No, they think they'd go to the playoffs over one-loss Oklahoma.
   171. TDF, trained monkey Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:19 AM (#5786466)
I would guess UGA and UMich get in in that scenario since the committee is supposed to value conference championships.
Non-champ Alabama got in last year.
   172. PeteF3 Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5786470)
If OSU or Michigan win the B1G title they'll in all likelihood have 1 loss. Last year OSU had 2, one of which was an awful one.
   173. PeteF3 Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5786473)
No, they think they'd go to the playoffs over one-loss Oklahoma.


Michigan has a better loss and, Northwestern game notwithstanding, didn't need an OT escape to beat Army (who are good, but in no way should have been that competitive with OU's talent) or botched PATs to beat Ok State. I don't know if it's a sure thing but they look like a better team so far to me.
   174. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:29 AM (#5786475)
Non-champ Alabama got in last year.

It's fairly clear that Alabama is going to have to lose twice to get left out. A one-loss Alabama is going to be given the nod over basically anyone else.
   175. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5786491)
It's fairly clear that Alabama is going to have to lose twice to get left out.
Cit-a-del! Cit-a-del!
   176. Quaker Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5786588)
Non-champ Alabama got in last year.


Non-champ Alabama got in over 2-loss OSU that was blown out by Iowa. Michigan would have one loss, in the very first week, to a team that may be undefeated.

Wait people really think 1-loss Michigan, with a loss to ND, would go to the playoffs over undefeated ND?


Only Stiggles thinks this.
   177. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5786733)
Harbaugh has never beaten the Buckeyes, has he?


Was a play (and a bad spot) away a couple times. This is the first time since he arrived that Michigan has more or equal talent at multiple position groups however. Michigan as better in the secondary, offensive line, defensive line, LB. OSU is better at RB and QB, or maybe QB is a toss up the way Patterson is playing relative to Haskins the last couple weeks.

Only real advantage OSU has is at RB. If the game was at Michigan I'd think it would be a 9 point spread. But it's not and I think UM will be favored by -2 maybe. It's a 60-40 proposition for UM IMO. Hardly a done deal. But if they pass that test I'd think they'd be a two TD favorite over whoever comes out of the east. Playing indoors at Indy against those UM corners, DEs and WRs? Good luck.
   178. stig-tossled, hornswoggled gef the typing mongoose Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:14 PM (#5786746)
Cit-a-del! Cit-a-del!


Arkansas' season-opening loss to those guys in '92 got the coach fired. The Razorbacks' standards were somewhat higher in those days; I'm pretty sure Bret "By No Means a Sufferer of" Bulemia wouldn't have lasted a month.
   179. Brian C Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5786753)
if you want to give them credit for it, okay; that's not a hill i need to die on.

i just think it's hard to call that a true road game when it's only a 90 minute trip and 2/3 of the crowd are rooting for UND.

It's a bit farther away than 90 minutes, but when the Wolverines play in Evanston, most of the crowd is rooting for Michigan too, bud.

Same is true of MSU, Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Hardly exclusive to Notre Dame.

This is a really poor argument you're making.
   180. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 13, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5786792)

It's a bit farther away than 90 minutes, but when the Wolverines play in Evanston, most of the crowd is rooting for Michigan too, bud.

Same is true of MSU, Ohio State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Hardly exclusive to Notre Dame.

This is a really poor argument you're making.


Sadly yes. This is entirely true.

Indeed - was at the game and I would say that the crowd was probably closer to 50/50 than it is for most NU home games.

You wanna see a visitor take over a stadium? Go to a Nebraska travel game some time. JFC - was also at the Nebraska game and riding the train to Evanston? Sea of red. Stadium? Sea of red.... and the Huskers were still friggin winless at that time!!!
   181. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5786794)
Only Stiggles thinks this.


Nate Silver's website says Notre Dame has an 86% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. I'd like to bet on that line if it was available!

Website sure looks pretty, though.
   182. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 13, 2018 at 08:05 PM (#5786989)
 1 Alabama                    The Citadel          Auburn                Georgia (n)
 2 Clemson                    Duke                 South Carolina        ACC Championship (n)
 3 Notre Dame                 Syracuse (n)         @ USC
 4 Michigan                   Indiana              @ Ohio State
 5 Georgia                    UMass                Georgia Tech          Alabama (n)
 6 Oklahoma                   Kansas               @ West Virginia
 7 LSU                        Rice                 @ Texas A&M
 8 Washington State           Arizona              Washington
 9 West Virginia              @ Oklahoma State     Oklahoma
10 Ohio State                 @ Maryland           Michigan
11 Central Florida            Cincinnati           @ South Florida
12 Syracuse                   Notre Dame (n)       @ Boston College
13 Florida                    Idaho                @ Florida State
14 Penn State                 @ Rutgers            Maryland
15 Texas                      Iowa State           @ Kansas
16 Iowa State                 @ Texas              Kansas State          Incarnate Word
17 Kentucky                   Middle Tennessee     @ Louisville
18 Washington                 Oregon State         @ Washington State
19 Utah                       @ Colorado           BYU
20 Boston College             @ Florida State      Syracuse
21 Mississippi State          Arkansas             @ Ole Miss
22 Northwestern               @ Minnesota          Illinois              Big Ten Championship (n)
23 Utah State                 @ Colorado State     @ Boise State
24 Cincinnati                 @ Central Florida    East Carolina
25 Boise State                @ New Mexico         Utah State
   183. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 13, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5787001)
This week's point spreads for the top 10 in the rankings (all favorites, in order of spread).

5
10
10
14
28
28
36
43
44
51

Should be an exciting week.
   184. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 14, 2018 at 10:19 AM (#5787176)
Should be an exciting week.

Well, when you root for the team with the 5 it captures your attention.
   185. Quaker Posted: November 14, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5787246)
Nate Silver's website says Notre Dame has an 86% chance to make the playoff if they go undefeated. I'd like to bet on that line if it was available!

Website sure looks pretty, though.


Are you saying you think that's too high a chance or too low?
   186. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 14, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5787325)
Are you saying you think that's too high a chance or too low?


I presume too low.

Much as I dislike the "we're special!" ND stuff - if they're undefeated, the chances they don't get one of the top 4 spots is absolute zero. I could - and would - make a case for squeezing them out if there were 4 other undefeated teams, but there are not going to be 4 other undefeated teams, but there won't be. If ND wins out - they will be one of three... at most.

I still think they need to embark on a little NBC dollars methadone treatment and get themselves into a conference, but whatever...
   187. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 14, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5787336)
And there's no reason they should be left out, is there? I think a lot of people presume that without a conference schedule, Notre Dame must be playing all service academies, but their strength of schedule is pretty much in the middle of the pack (and better than Clemson's, from what I'm seeing).
   188. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: November 14, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5787346)
And there's no reason they should be left out, is there? I think a lot of people presume that without a conference schedule, Notre Dame must be playing all service academies, but their strength of schedule is pretty much in the middle of the pack (and better than Clemson's, from what I'm seeing).


Not this year... and probably not most years - if only because it's going to be pretty rare that we get 5 undefeated teams.

I think a conference title game gets a lot of weight - and I think a conference schedule does, too. Most teams are not Alabama or Clemson - most teams get "up" for conference games because that's what 95% (or more) of the NCAA teams are realistically shooting for conference titles... and when that falls by the wayside, ruining a rivals seasons, securing your own bowl standing, avenging last year or the last X years, winning one of the myriad of silly little trophies, etc.

Generations ago, sure - maybe ND could make the case that "well, everybody is our rival so..."

That's just not the case anymore.

So, sure - if they go undefeated, they're in and almost always deservedly so... If they stub their toe? For the most part, I see 'em on the outside looking in. If that's an unsatisfactory state of affairs, join a conference.
   189. McCoy Posted: November 14, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5787432)
Everybody plays powder puffs. Alabama is playing Citadel, for crissakes. Notre Dame generally always plays potentially good teams. They're always going to be playing USC, Stanford, generally a Big Ten team or two (and usually not the pushovers. A Michigan team and someone else), a Florida team, other ACC teams and two service academies (though in the latest round of schedules they are now down to one service academy. That seems like a normal looking major conference like schedule to me.
   190. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 14, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5787443)
Everybody plays powder puffs. Alabama is playing Citadel, for crissakes.
And Louisiana Lafayette, and Arkansas State. Added up, that's four byes!

No other conference has powderpuffs scheduled after about week four; mostly they're over by week 2. What the SEC gets away with is ridiculous.
   191. TDF, trained monkey Posted: November 14, 2018 at 03:09 PM (#5787478)
Everybody plays powder puffs. Alabama is playing Citadel, for crissakes.
Alabama's non-conference "schedule":

Neutral site vs. 2-8 Louisville (those 2 wins: FCS Indiana St., 1-9 Western Kentucky)
Home vs. 6-4 Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
Home vs. 5-5 Louisiana (Sun Belt)
Home vs. 4-5 Citadel (FCS)
   192. JL72 Posted: November 14, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5787510)
Neutral site vs. 2-8 Louisville (those 2 wins: FCS Indiana St., 1-9 Western Kentucky)


Man I just hate defending Alabama, but in fairness, this game was scheduled when Louisville was pretty good.

The rest of this non-conference schedule speaks for itself.
   193. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 14, 2018 at 04:45 PM (#5787525)
Man I just hate defending Alabama, but in fairness, this game was scheduled when Louisville was pretty good.
Wake me when Alabama schedules a Home-and-Away against a Power 5, as opposed to one-offs at "neutral" sites that are usually Atlanta.

Their last OOC road game as 2011.
   194. Howie Menckel Posted: November 14, 2018 at 05:07 PM (#5787547)
I hate defending Notre Dame as much as JL72 hates defending Alabama, but I can't criticize their scheduling.
   195. McCoy Posted: November 14, 2018 at 05:24 PM (#5787554)
You cannot criticize God's team!
   196. Howie Menckel Posted: November 14, 2018 at 05:32 PM (#5787559)
I believe McCoy was pleasant at a BBTF softball post-game a few years back when I laid out why this 100 pct Irish (all grandparents came from Ireland) can't stand that the "least Irish" football program in America can purport to represent us. I know the defense is that 100 years ago it was different, but being too uppity join a conference and having your own TV contract to yourself is so, so not Irish.

'putting on airs,' I say.

   197. McCoy Posted: November 14, 2018 at 05:38 PM (#5787560)
   198. TDF, trained monkey Posted: November 14, 2018 at 05:39 PM (#5787561)
Man I just hate defending Alabama, but in fairness, this game was scheduled when Louisville was pretty good.
It was scheduled over the past off-season, after Louisville went 8-5. Alabama no longer schedules a Power 5 OOC game, they just wait to be invited to a "kickoff classic" of some type.
   199. McCoy Posted: November 14, 2018 at 05:46 PM (#5787564)
If rankers were better (and isn't this what all the computers were for originally) the playoff committee should lay down the law and say for teams to be considered for the playoffs they need to do XYZ with one of those things being scheduling actual challenging OOC (and gasp away OOC) games instead of scheduling crap in the beginning and occasionally crap during the season as well. In the future if a team like Alabama decides to schedule a game against the second division in November they should be automatically removed from consideration.

Now of course the committee and rankers shouldn't then penalize teams if they actually do happen to lose games. It would probably create a new norm but at least then when a team goes 12-0 we can go "wow" instead of "yeah, but . . ."
   200. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 14, 2018 at 05:52 PM (#5787570)
being too uppity join a conference and having your own TV contract to yourself is so, so not Irish

Bah, the metastasis of major conferences is motivated by the money that comes with strong-arming people who don't care about your product into subsidizing it through their basic cable packages.

CFB needs smaller conferences and more independents.
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