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Thursday, November 01, 2018

OT - November* 2018 College Football thread

* As is tradition, the November thread runs through Championship Week before giving way to the Bowl Spectacular.

Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 01, 2018 at 06:27 AM | 722 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: college football, off-topic

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   301. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 19, 2018 at 12:30 AM (#5789089)
Early odds for next week:

Alabama -24
Clemson -25
Notre Dame -10
Michigan -4
Georgia -17
Oklahoma pick
Washington State -3

LSU probably no longer relevant, but a 1 point dog on the road.

edit: it's pretty unlikely all 3 of Notre Dame, Michigan and Oklahoma will all win, so there will likely be some shakeup this week. (WSU losing wouldn't really shake anything up.)
   302. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 19, 2018 at 03:31 PM (#5789278)
Stop talking about dumbass pro football in this thread.

Get thee to the pest tent.
   303. Red Voodooin Posted: November 19, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5789289)
Alabama -24


Wow. That's a lot of points for an Iron Bowl.
   304. TDF, trained monkey Posted: November 19, 2018 at 04:28 PM (#5789313)
So I like to go over to the Massey College Football Ranking composite, which includes the polls and about a bazillion computer rankings. I'm always intrigued by the outlier computer rankings.

If you ran the Rothman rankings (Dave Rothman, who designed them, died a number of years ago), wouldn't it concern you that 10 of the top 15 teams your program spits out all belong to the same conference? I mean, yeah, the SEC is pretty strong, but is 5-6 Tennessee really the 20th best team in the country?
   305. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 19, 2018 at 04:46 PM (#5789322)
Wow. That's a lot of points for an Iron Bowl.
But not enough. Take the Tide, give the points. Book it.
   306. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 19, 2018 at 04:57 PM (#5789329)
So WSU still has a chance:

Alabama over Georgia
WVU over Oklahoma
tOSU over Michigan

Then it's eyetest time; will the committee see a blown call loss^ at USC as favorable to a blowout at Purdue? Alternatively, tOSU could then look bad (or lose) against Northwestern.

^ Watch this video to the end and see if that wasn't a blown call^^. WSU ended up getting their longish field goal blocked that would have tied it; had targeting been called, they'd have had fresh downs at the 12, and my money would have been on a TD, or at the very least an easier FG.

^^ This is the call that was later revealed to have been tampered with by the league office overruling the replay booth and overturning any targeting call. If that's not targeting, what is? Ultimately no flag was enforced on the play.
   307. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 19, 2018 at 05:28 PM (#5789340)
WSU also still has to win both of its games, which is only about 30% likely to happen. Along with the rest of the results above, it's like 5-7% chance total even to get to reach that discussion.

edit: I guess UT could also beat OU in the B12 championship, so add another 1-2%.
edit2: if we are going for alternatives, Michigan could lose to NW also, or Notre Dame to USC.
   308. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 19, 2018 at 05:37 PM (#5789342)
AuntBea - sure, I was just going for the most likely path. WVU gets the Sooners at home, and the other game is in Columbus.

Like it matters; much like the NFC championship game is already penciled in as NO-LA, the national championship game will be (yet again) Clemson-Tide.
   309. McCoy Posted: November 19, 2018 at 06:05 PM (#5789349)
Nope. Notre Dame vs Alabama
   310. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: November 19, 2018 at 06:14 PM (#5789354)
You're cute when you're mistaken...
   311. TDF, trained monkey Posted: November 19, 2018 at 07:17 PM (#5789372)
So WSU still has a chance:

Alabama over Georgia
WVU over Oklahoma
tOSU over Michigan

Then it's eyetest time; will the committee see a blown call loss^ at USC as favorable to a blowout at Purdue?
As a tOSU fan, there's about 0% chance they get in before a 1-loss champ from another conference, both because of the Purdue debacle and how badly they've played even when winning.
   312. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 19, 2018 at 08:01 PM (#5789386)
As a tOSU fan, there's about 0% chance they get in before a 1-loss champ from another conference, both because of the Purdue debacle and how badly they've played even when winning.
I don't know. I'd love to have that debate rear its ugly head, but I suspect Ohio State would win it. I'm not going to start thinking about it until both teams win this weekend.
   313. Master of the Horse Posted: November 19, 2018 at 08:48 PM (#5789407)
   314. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 19, 2018 at 09:08 PM (#5789415)
I just heard that the ATS favorite has won every UM/tOSU game since 2004.
   315. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: November 19, 2018 at 09:40 PM (#5789429)
I just can't get over fivethirtyeight saying undefeated Notre Dame goes to playoffs 87% of the time. Like, write a line of code that says something like if (loss = 0), then playoff = 100. Or something. Doesn't seem difficult.

I guess ND could beat USC 3-2 or something, and then OSU could beat Michigan by 100, and Oklahoma could beat West Virginia by 200. Maybe then ND gets left out. Not sure why this annoys me.
   316. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 20, 2018 at 11:12 PM (#5789904)
 1 Alabama                    Auburn                Georgia (n)
 2 Clemson                    South Carolina        Pittsburgh (n)
 3 Notre Dame                 @ USC
 4 Michigan                   @ Ohio State
 5 Georgia                    Georgia Tech          Alabama (n)
 6 Oklahoma                   @ West Virginia
 7 LSU                        @ Texas A&M
 8 Washington State           Washington
 9 Central Florida            @ South Florida       AAC Championship
10 Ohio State                 Michigan
11 Florida                    @ Florida State
12 Penn State                 Maryland
13 West Virginia              Oklahoma
14 Texas                      @ Kansas
15 Kentucky                   @ Louisville
16 Washington                 @ Washington State
17 Utah                       BYU                   Pac-12 Championship (n)
18 Mississippi State          @ Ole Miss
19 Northwestern               Illinois              Big Ten Championship (n)
20 Syracuse                   @ Boston College
21 Utah State                 @ Boise State
22 Texas A&M                  LSU
23 Boise State                Utah State
24 Pittsburgh                 @ Miami (FL)          Clemson (n)
25 Iowa State                 Kansas State          Drake
   317. kubiwan Posted: November 21, 2018 at 12:44 AM (#5789909)
This is the call that was later revealed to have been tampered with by the league office


This is NOT correct. The tampered call came earlier in the same game, and benefited Washington State (a Wazzu lineman drilled a kneeling USC quarterback and was flagged, but the booth overturned the call).
   318. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 21, 2018 at 10:48 AM (#5789977)
I just can't get over fivethirtyeight saying undefeated Notre Dame goes to playoffs 87% of the time. Like, write a line of code that says something like if (loss = 0), then playoff = 100. Or something. Doesn't seem difficult.
UCF?
I guess ND could beat USC 3-2 or something, and then OSU could beat Michigan by 100, and Oklahoma could beat West Virginia by 200. Maybe then ND gets left out. Not sure why this annoys me.
if michigan rolls tosu on the road, if georgia beats alabama, UND is not guaranteed anything.
   319. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 21, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5789999)
To quote RaiderJoe: "Is poster drunk?"

Undefeated Notre Dame is going to the playoff--so let's all just agree to hope they lose this weekend.
   320. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 21, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5790046)
538 inexplicably gives Notre Dame only a 54% chance to make the playoff if Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Washington State win out. The reason is that they are splitting the last two spots between OU, OSU, WSU and ND, and don't think ND has a much better than average shot at one of them. Obviously this completely ignores reality.
   321. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 21, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5790053)
Alabama winning out would be GOOD for Notre Dame, because it means that Georgia isn't going to make the playoff. The one thing that would threaten Notre Dame's chances is a Georgia win over Bama, which would probably end up putting both those teams in the playoff.

If Alabama wins out, it's going to be Bama, Clemson, winner of Michigan/OSU, and... who could possibly leapfrog over Notre Dame?
   322. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 21, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5790074)
The one thing that would threaten Notre Dame's chances is a Georgia win over Bama, which would probably end up putting both those teams in the playoff.
If Alabama loses to Georgia they won't go over Notre Dame. (They could get a higher slot, but if they are both competing for the 4th slot, Notre Dame gets it.)

FWIW (which doesn't seem to be much), 538 gives a significant percentage chance to each 1-loss conference winner as well as 1-loss Alabama, all at the expense of undefeated Notre Dame. The 1-loss Alabama scenario is just another factor to 538, not especially more compelling than the 1-loss conference winners.

edit: oops I didn't have the percentages quite right above (the odds were closer to 67% where I said 54%). But the answer to this: If Alabama wins out, it's going to be Bama, Clemson, winner of Michigan/OSU, and... who could possibly leapfrog over Notre Dame?

is 538 gives both 1-loss OU and WSU a chance to eclipse ND. In fact, it likes OU better than ND, Michigan about the same, and OSU quite a bit less, and even gives WSU a smallish chance. 538's odds for Notre Dame aren't really lessened by the 1-loss Alabama scenario. For 538, 1-loss Alabama non-conference winner isn't much more compelling than WSU as 1-loss PAC champ.

edit2: to be crystal clear, I think 538 is nuts on this point. Undefeated Notre Dame is going, and there is zero chance OU, OSU or WSU passes them, and virtually zero chance 1-loss Alabama does.
   323. McCoy Posted: November 21, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5790156)
Yeah, there is no way an undefeated Notre Dame would miss the playoffs this season.

If the following happened who would get bumped out?

Undefeated teams:
Michigan
Alabama
Clemson
Oklahoma
Washington St
Notre Dame

I would think Washington St would be one of the teams left out. Perhaps Oklahoma would be the other one? Would this lead to Notre Dame getting squeezed out?
   324. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 21, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5790195)
By undefeated you mean they all win out?

It'd be

Bama
Clemson
ND
Michigan

Maybe they flip ND and Clemson to make Michigan look more impressive, but they won't leave any of the undefeateds out and Michigan's loss being to ND combined with a late in the season win over a name in OSU will be enough.
   325. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 21, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5790199)
Agree with 324, but that's not what McCoy meant I don't think.

If each team that he listed went undefeated this year (but all other results stayed the same), I think it's a tough call. WSU is almost surely out and Alabama is surely in. So it would be UM, OU, Clemson and Notre Dame for 3 spots. Under that scenario I think ND could easily miss out.

edit: well shoot, ND played UM so it's an impossible scenario. Replace UM with OSU, and the question gets even harder (noting again all other results stay the same).
   326. Quaker Posted: November 21, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5790205)
if michigan rolls tosu on the road, if georgia beats alabama, UND is not guaranteed anything.


How are you wrong about everything?

If ND wins, they will be in. They would be undefeated. They beat Michigan H2H with their backup QB. They had a 2 score lead from midway through the first qtr until there were `3 mins left in that game. They'd have beaten 3 teams--Pitt, Mich & NU--that will be competing for conference championships. And they even beat NU by more than Michigan (although the Wolverines will get a second crack at them.)

   327. McCoy Posted: November 21, 2018 at 05:34 PM (#5790223)
Yeah I was going to go with Ohio state but then I thought they’re pretty mediocre this year so went with Michigan while forgetting that Notre Dane beat them.
   328. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 21, 2018 at 06:31 PM (#5790233)
How are you wrong about everything?

If ND wins, they will be in. They would be undefeated. They beat Michigan H2H with their backup QB. They had a 2 score lead from midway through the first qtr until there were `3 mins left in that game. They'd have beaten 3 teams--Pitt, Mich & NU--that will be competing for conference championships. And they even beat NU by more than Michigan (although the Wolverines will get a second crack at them.)
disagree <> wrong

michigan is a better team right now.
like UND, michigan would go into the playoffs on a 12 game winning streak.
they lost to UND on the road, in the first game of the season.
their defense has given up 1000 fewer yards than UND.
michigan has the opportunity to beat tosu on the road, which would be a better road win than anything UND did.
michigan beating penn state, michigan state and wisconsin by a combined 101-27 is more impressive than a 5 point win over pittsburgh, or even a 33 point win over syracuse's backup QB.


man, look at what michigan's defense did to the QBs in those games:
mcsorley (PSU): 5/13, 83 yards, 1 INT
lewerke (MSU): 5/25, 66 yards
hornibrook (WISC): 7/20, 100 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs


the argument i'm making now is not dissimilar to the argument i made in favor of PSU over tosu two seasons ago*. UND is undefeated and they have a head to head victory over michigan, so i understand how anyone could see that as enough to end the conversation, but i think the context makes things a lot murkier. personally, i give the nod to the team i think is better. UND's schedule is not nearly as challenging as michigan's. UND has not dominated quality competition as thoroughly as michigan has dominated michigan state, wisconsin and penn state.


*before you say that i was wrong about that one too, i'll remind you that tosu wound up getting destroyed by clemson, 31-0.
   329. Quaker Posted: November 21, 2018 at 08:39 PM (#5790255)
Your arguments are entirely disingenuous. You invent some criteria of "best road win" b/c ND happened to play their toughest opponents at home or on neutral fields. ND doesn't get credit for winning at Northwestern b/c "it's too close to ND's campus." You keep touting Michigan's supposedly impressive wins vs. Wisconsin & MSU. Neither of those teams is even ranked in the top 25. You dismiss the 33 point shellacking of Syracuse b/c it came against a backup QB. You neglect to mention that ND was already up 10-0 at the time of Dungey's injury and the backup had won other games for the Orange. You ding ND for only beating Pitt, a team that's going to win a weak division, by 5. You ignore the fact that UM only beat NU, a team that's going to win a weak division, by 3.

And yes, you are wrong. The committee isn't going to put Michigan in ahead of Notre Dame if the Irish win out.

Is there any record of a Power 5/ND team being left out of the playoff with an undefeated record? No.
FSU played 7 one score games in 2014. All of the computer models favored TCU/Baylor over the Noles. Who got into the playoff? The undefeated power conference team.


   330. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 21, 2018 at 09:10 PM (#5790261)
So I’m drinking and a pretty casual college football fan, but I mean.....
are people forgetting pulling switches / hitting buttons & seeing Notre Dame on their teevees all these years??

As of now, a Notre Dame who stays undefeated is the #3 team / #3 seed.

They move past Clemson or Alabama if either of those teams lose.

Why would anybody think that any more words need to be typed about this?
   331. Howie Menckel Posted: November 21, 2018 at 09:24 PM (#5790265)
a Notre Dame who stays undefeated is the #3 team / #3 seed.

They move past Clemson or Alabama if either of those teams lose.

Why would anybody think that any more words need to be typed about this?
   332. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 21, 2018 at 09:32 PM (#5790268)
Is there any record of a Power 5/ND team being left out of the playoff with an undefeated record? No.
FSU played 7 one score games in 2014. All of the computer models favored TCU/Baylor over the Noles. Who got into the playoff? The undefeated power conference team.
...and they lost by 39 in the CFP semi-finals.
You dismiss the 33 point shellacking of Syracuse b/c it came against a backup QB. You neglect to mention that ND was already up 10-0 at the time of Dungey's injury and the backup had won other games for the Orange.
a 10 point first quarter lead? that's truly insurmountable.
You keep touting Michigan's supposedly impressive wins vs. Wisconsin & MSU. Neither of those teams is even ranked in the top 25.
the big ten was a meatgrinder this season. last season, too, for that matter.
You ding ND for only beating Pitt, a team that's going to win a weak division, by 5.
here are some pitt scores from this year:
penn state 51-6 pitt
pitt 14-45 UCF
pitt 14-19 notre dame

(there's a good chance they end the year with 7 losses, btw)
You invent some criteria of "best road win" b/c ND happened to play their toughest opponents at home or on neutral fields.
who were those tough opponents, again? oh, right:
ball state
vanderbilt
stanford
pitt
navy
florida state
syracuse

that's a true murderer's row of opponents.

   333. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 21, 2018 at 09:45 PM (#5790273)
Why would anybody think that any more words need to be typed about this?
one side of this discussion is arguing the merits; the other side is advocating for thoughtlessly repeating the worst mistakes the committee has made in the past.
   334. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 21, 2018 at 10:09 PM (#5790280)
I can’t help but feel like there’s an omission on your list of NDs home opponents
   335. Quaker Posted: November 21, 2018 at 10:10 PM (#5790281)
In your typical disingenuous fashion, you forgot to include Michigan in your little list below:

who were those tough opponents, again? oh, right:
ball state
vanderbilt
stanford
pitt
navy
florida state
syracuse


You can continue to try to shift the goalposts from "will get in" to "deserves to get in," but as I and everyone has told you over the last 100 posts, Notre Dame is getting if they win Saturday night.







   336. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 21, 2018 at 11:28 PM (#5790298)
one side of this discussion is arguing the merits; the other side is advocating for thoughtlessly repeating the worst mistakes the committee has made in the past
We were all talking about what we thought the committee would do. If you were to ask me, on my personal "merits", Notre Dame would be shot into the sun, and the earth salted where the school used to be. (Fun fact, it would take more energy to drop something from the earth into the sun than to shoot it out of the solar system. I'm willing to settle for shooting ND out of the solar system as well, just so you know.)

What the committee should do in a perfect world is very much up for debate, of course. Not many people think they should just take the "best" teams, regardless of how they actually performed on the field this year. There are a number of statistics out there to determine who had the most "accomplished" year, based on wins and losses against their schedule--almost all of these favor undefeated teams because it's just that much harder to go undefeated than to have one loss. Personally I think the committee should favor accomplishment, in large part based on wins and losses (just like every other league in the world does), and only use team quality as a secondary measure or tiebreaker. Done that way, Notre Dame is fully deserving unless you want to dock them for not being in a conference and winning a conference title.


   337. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 22, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5790341)
Kinda sucks that college basically cedes this day to the NFL. As much as I enjoy the Egg Bowl, it doesn't constitute a legitimate attempt at counter-programming.

It's unfortunate that Fox now has tier one for the Big Ten and Big 12, because ABC/ESPN doing whatever it took -- paying buyouts to the likes of Colorado and UCLA; throwing money at the conferences to re-jigger their schedules -- to get Nebraska and Oklahoma to renew hostilities on Thanksgiving would've been a baller-ass move.


At least The Game of the Century is on YouTube.
   338. Stevey Posted: November 22, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5790353)
in large part based on wins and losses (just like every other league in the world does)


As much as I think ND both will and deserves to go to the playoff, this kind of stuff drives me batty. Do we really think Stiggles doesnt know that ND beat Mich? Of course he does. But yet everytime someone mentions alternative methods to measuring teams, we all yell at them to count the wins. And, considering this site, its pretty effing rich. We sound like the geriatric baseball writers we rail against who want everyone off their lawn if you suggest to them that the 90-72 team with a negative run differential isnt that great.

But the reason we should look deeper than the W-L in college football compared to anywere else is that we don’t get enough of a sample size to make good conclusions on W-L only. 16 games in a 32 team league is the closest we get to college’s 12 games in a 130 team league. Two teams in a NFL division will play home and home, and then have 12 other common opponents. Michigan and Ohio St have one head-to-head, which will favor one team and then six other common opponents, some years its only five. When even teams in the same division have such a disparate schedule, you cant just treat college football like every other league and expect to get good results. You need to add some nuance, on rely on those nerds who look deeper to provide you useful information.
   339. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 22, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5790359)
But yet everytime someone mentions alternative methods to measuring teams, we all yell at them to count the wins.
You are confusing two different things. The reason I care about the wins and losses isn't because I think they create the final say on which team is better, it's because I think wins should matter when deciding who gets to go the playoffs. The purpose of each game is to win, and it should means something if a team wins. Otherwise we could just as well call all games that end within 3 points a draw.

Are you saying that you advocate putting teams in the MLB playoffs based on their run differential?

When even teams in the same division have such a disparate schedule, you cant just treat college football like every other league and expect to get good results. You need to add some nuance, on rely on those nerds who look deeper to provide you useful information.
As I mentioned, except in extreme cases (like Power-5 v Group of 5), it's much harder to go undefeated than to have 1 loss. Pretty much all "nerd" stats that try to account for this show the same thing. If you are talking about which teams are most accomplished against the schedule they have faced, an extra loss goes a very long way.
   340. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 22, 2018 at 04:08 PM (#5790363)
let's say michigan had played citadel in week one instead of going to notre dame, beaten them 51-17, and was now 11-0 instead of 10-1; would anyone care if that team was ranked ahead of notre dame in the final CFP rankings?

if you want good teams to schedule tough out of conference road games, you have to start giving them some leeway when they happen to lose.


or, just expand the CFP to 8 teams, guaranteeing all power 5 conference champions a playoff spot, plus 3 at large teams. this year, we'd get something like this:
1 alabama v. 8 UCF
4 michigan v. 5 oklahoma
3 notre dame v. 6 washington state
2 clemson v. 7 LSU/georgia

or, even better (imo), randomize the matchups, yielding something like this:
6 washington state v. 4 michigan
1 alabama v. 7 LSU/georgia
8 UCF v. 3 notre dame
5 oklahoma v. 2 clemson
   341. McCoy Posted: November 22, 2018 at 06:03 PM (#5790369)
Forget leeway. It should be penalties for teams that don't do it.
   342. McCoy Posted: November 22, 2018 at 06:04 PM (#5790370)
But yeah if Michigan is undefeated because they played citadel they absolutely shouldn't be an automatic for the playoffs.
   343. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 22, 2018 at 07:01 PM (#5790372)
if you want good teams to schedule tough out of conference road games, you have to start giving them some leeway when they happen to lose.
Only if your purpose is to make teams play OOC games. If your purpose is to choose the most accomplished teams after the fact based on the schedule they played, you don't have to. And frankly you shouldn't.

It should be penalties for teams that don't do it.
I wouldn't be opposed to penalties for schedules that don't meet a certain standard at the time they are made. This is fundamentally a different conversation though.

FWIW: FPI's "strength of record" has Notre Dame as #1 (based, in large part, on being undefeated, as mentioned). FEI does something similar (called "elite win margin"), where Notre Dame comes out as comfortably second.

I'm definitely not saying that this is the best or only way to choose who goes to the playoffs. It just seems to be the method implied by 340 above--looking at who beat who based on the schedule. If you were to take two identical schedules with the only difference being replacement of Citadel with Notre Dame, it's significantly harder to go undefeated against the Citadel schedule than it is to have 1 loss against the Notre Dame schedule.
   344. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 22, 2018 at 09:36 PM (#5790386)
ESPN's playoff predictor uses the following factors, based on an analysis of the committee's selections in the past:

Strength of Record (how much teams have accomplished)

FPI (how good teams are)

Number of losses (incorporated into SOR but the committee places even more emphasis on losses)

Conference championships

Independent status (Notre Dame can't be a conference champion, but all else being equal it might get more credit than a team that didn't win its conference championship) -- despite the committee claiming it wants the four best teams.

That's why Strength of Record is the most important factor. Fifteen of the 16 playoff teams in the past four years have ranked in the top four of Strength of Record on selection day


Current playoff predictor:

Clemson 96%
Notre Dame 92%
Alabama 80%
Michigan 42%
Georgia 40%
Ohio State 26%
Oklahoma 20%
Washington State 2%
West Virginia 1%
   345. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 23, 2018 at 12:17 PM (#5790432)
At least The Game of the Century is on YouTube.

Best part is Joe Namath, leg in a cast, pimping home popcorn makers with the little butter slot on top. Unfortunately the second half has most of the terrible commercials cut out, so all that's left is the sense that the better team lost.
   346. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 23, 2018 at 05:57 PM (#5790499)
Well this Milton disaster certainly puts a damper on Flutie Friday.
   347. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 08:08 PM (#5790518)
The odds for most of the games haven't moved significantly since the early lines came out (ND is now favored by 11, Michigan by 4.5 or 5, and Clemson by 26). Except for this game: OU is now a 3 point favorite.
   348. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 23, 2018 at 08:10 PM (#5790520)
Did the Big 12 start having Oklahoma and West Virginia end the season against each other so we'd be reminded that we're missing out on Oklahoma-Nebraska and the Backyard Brawl?
   349. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 23, 2018 at 09:22 PM (#5790528)
Rain turning to snow on the Palouse. Oh, please, let this turn into 1992.
   350. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 09:42 PM (#5790530)
WVU really needs a TD on this drive.
   351. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 10:14 PM (#5790536)
WVU had a lot of 3rd and 4th down conversions in the first half. It's probably not going to be easy to repeat that in the second half. OU barely ever had to even face 3rd down. Unless something changes, OU will win by 21 or more.
   352. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 10:22 PM (#5790537)
That was the first time WVU stopped OU on 3rd down. It all started from the two run stops on 1st and 2nd down, leaving 3rd and long. WVU will need to do that at least a couple more times to win this game.
   353. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: November 23, 2018 at 10:24 PM (#5790539)
At least The Game of the Century is on YouTube.
The Game of the Century was Michigan at Chicago, Nov 30 1905. Over the previous five years Michigan had outscored the opposition 2746-40, and was at 495-0 on the year. Chicago had outscored the opposition 269-5 and was clearly the #2 team in the land. There was insane hype about the game, which was a brutal defensive struggle that the Maroons won 2-0 when a Michigan punt returner tried to run one out of the end zone and was tackled back into it. The U of C's president even sent a halftime note from his deathbed, demanding that the team win the game. It was maximum histrionics, and a level of combined play that no one had seen before.
   354. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 23, 2018 at 10:35 PM (#5790543)
Double pass in the snow. Ahh, that's the stuff.
   355. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 10:49 PM (#5790546)
Maybe it's the weather, but WSU has been severely outplayed to this point. Lucky to be down just 11.
   356. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:04 PM (#5790548)
Man. OU really has to learn to cover the guys running straight up the field on 3rd and long. That's at least the third time WVU has done that for a TD or very long gain.

   357. stanmvp48 Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5790549)
OK and WV just covered the O/U line
   358. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5790550)
Maybe it's the weather, but WSU has been severely outplayed to this point. Lucky to be down just 11.
they've only played one ranked team, utah, who wasn't ranked at the time they played, and who is only ranked 18th now. they did not play a power-5 team in their non-conference schedule. instead, they chose to play:

1-10 san jose state
4-6 wyoming
1-AA eastern washington


they do not deserve to be ranked higher than utah state.
   359. stanmvp48 Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:09 PM (#5790552)
1183 yards in 3 quarters
   360. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:20 PM (#5790555)
WVU has played much better in the second half. They've faced fewer 3rd and 4th downs, and more importantly actually forced OU into 3rd and 4th downs. At this point it looks unlikely that OU will punt in this game.

Blocking out of bounds. Yikes.
   361. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:22 PM (#5790557)
Would it maybe be time to rethink the concept of “blocking” in football?

It seems like you can have both arms around and both hands on a guy downfield but it’s not holding because reasons.

Would it not be a better game if offensive players were not allowed to touch defenisve players with their hands?

Put them in ####### straight jackets if necessary.

Hit a guy, bump a guy, whatever. But all this wrestling downfield just seems like nonsense.
   362. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:24 PM (#5790558)
That's very likely game OU. It's just too hard for WVU to stop them, and they need to or the game is done.
   363. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:27 PM (#5790559)
If this is the end for WSU, I'm happy to see them go. No advanced system had them ranked higher than Washington.
   364. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:30 PM (#5790560)
WVU can't punt there. I know it's 4th and 10, but it doesn't matter.

edit: 2 plays, and OU is already right there.
edi2: spoke too soon... but why is OU punting? These teams.... so stupid. OU netted 20 yards on that punt, and they have averaged 11 yards per offensive play. It was only 4th and 5.
   365. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:40 PM (#5790562)
Blocking out of bounds. Yikes.
that's not nearly as obscure a rule as the announcers made it seem. that call gets made at least once per week; it just usually only happens on punt returns.


OTOH, these pass interference calls are complete horseshit. neither of those "penalties" would been flagged on a neutral field.
   366. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:46 PM (#5790564)
McDonough and Blackledge taking issue with a team that's given up 59 points going for an onside kick. Commentary adds so much to the viewing experience.
   367. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:47 PM (#5790565)
So they don't go for it on 4th and 10, but then they onside kick 2 minutes later.
   368. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:49 PM (#5790566)
"Smart money's on punting."

Really, now.
   369. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:52 PM (#5790567)
Finally a tackle by WVU.

Unfortunately OU was smarter this time. It was the exact same siruation... 4th and 5 from the 40.
   370. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 23, 2018 at 11:54 PM (#5790568)
"Smart money's on punting."

Really, now.
the funny thing is, he'll never think twice about the fact that he disagreed with a decision that won the game for OU, but if it had gone the other way, the guy would never shut up about it, and he'd still bring it up 30 years from now.

confirmation bias is a hell of a drug.
   371. Howie Menckel Posted: November 24, 2018 at 12:02 AM (#5790570)
Oklahoma racks up 670 yards of offense while limiting West Virginia to 704 yards to cruise to a 59-56 victory in the Tecmo Bowl quarterfinals.

props to the ESPN CGI people - the players on my TV looked SO REAL!
   372. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 24, 2018 at 03:50 AM (#5790582)
A nice little summary of best v most accomplished from ProFootballLogic (2014):

The Difference Between Best and Most Accomplished

Many people, including the College Football Playoff selection committee, gloss over the fact that there even is a difference between the best teams and the most accomplished. But there is actually a very significant difference between the two. Won-lost records and measures of strength of schedule are enough to measure which teams have accomplished the most, but they actually aren't the best way to judge which teams are the best. We know this because betting market odds regularly beat even the most accurate estimations based solely on records and schedule.

Our predictive ratings use point differential, rather than game outcomes, to judge teams. Point differential has been proven to be more accurate than records at predicting games in just about every sport because it is a more precise measure of how effective each team was in a game. Other more advanced metrics such as those our NFL ratings use can improve on accuracy even beyond point differentials, but are rare at the college level because of the difficulty of producing them due to the vast number of college teams.

It initially feels right to pick the best teams for the playoffs, but in reality it makes more sense to judge teams based mostly or even entirely on their accomplishment rather than how good they actually are. Imagine how silly it would seem if after the NFL regular season, we seeded teams by how good they are rather than by their records. The outcomes of regular season games would become largely meaningless. Not to mention, such a system would muddy the incentives for teams. Winning teams would have an incentive to run up the score in blowouts, and losing teams would even be inclined to avoid their usual high-risk strategies that maximize their odds of winning but often lead to worse point differentials. The selection committee, whether on purpose or by accident, does judge teams mostly on their accomplishment rather than by how good they are.


If you really want to choose the best teams, just ask a handicapper who would be favored at a neutral site (hint: these days it's Alabama every year, no matter how many losses they have.) An interesting result from most sports is that if you want to predict the outcome of any team's next game, you are better off knowing only the pregame odds of all its prior games than knowing only the actual results (scorelines) of its prior games. My point is that nobody really wants the best teams in the playoffs regardless of actual W/L, they just aren't being clear about how they are rating wins and losses. Imagine, for example, that Michigan (pretty clearly thought of as superior to OSU this year) slightly outplays OSU on the road, except for 2 plays--each team gets a strip sack but OSU recovers them both (after both balls bounce around in the backfield), running back the one they recover on defense for a TD, and winning by 2 points. Except for the fumble luck, the game would have gone exactly like the pregame odds expected--we wouldn't have learned anything new about relative team quality, and Michigan would still be thought of as the superior team. Do you still want the committee to take Michigan over OSU, even if OSU goes on to win the conference championship by beating NW by 10 in the B1G championship?
   373. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 24, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5790598)
The best thing about the Michigan-OSU rivalry is that it doesn't have a contrived media-friendly nickname.
   374. Brian C Posted: November 24, 2018 at 12:17 PM (#5790604)
Deondre Francois, on the first play of the game for FSU, lofts up an absolute floater deep down the sideline. He underthrows it to the degree that the FSU receiver pushes the UF defender out of the way to avoid anyone being able to make a play on the ball. It drops incomplete behind both players.

Says analyst Greg McElroy: "And you really see Francois's arm on that play. He's one of the best pure throwers in college football."

Good lord.
   375. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 24, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5790616)

It seems like you can have both arms around and both hands on a guy downfield but it’s not holding because reasons.


Common misunderstandings about holding.

   376. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5790617)
Imagine, for example, that Michigan (pretty clearly thought of as superior to OSU this year) slightly outplays OSU on the road, except for 2 plays--each team gets a strip sack but OSU recovers them both (after both balls bounce around in the backfield), running back the one they recover on defense for a TD, and winning by 2 points. Except for the fumble luck, the game would have gone exactly like the pregame odds expected--we wouldn't have learned anything new about relative team quality, and Michigan would still be thought of as the superior team. Do you still want the committee to take Michigan over OSU, even if OSU goes on to win the conference championship by beating NW by 10 in the B1G championship?
my support for michigan was always dependent on them beating tosu on the road. if that doesn't happen, their case is dead, regardless of the circumstances.

i see what you're saying about best vs. most accomplished, but i think that goes both ways. as an example, i think notre dame eeking out a 5 point home win vs. vanderbilt is more damaging for their case than michigan losing by 7 at notre dame is for theirs.

that's really the crux of this matter. when you all you care about is the loss column (i know that's not the only factor here, but it's a big one; would most of us agree that if notre dame had lost to auburn in week 2 instead of playing ball state, they'd be ranked behind both michigan and georgia), you disincentivize teams from scheduling difficult non-conference games, especially on the road. that's not good for the sport.

the committee has the power to shape the future of college football. they should use it.
   377. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 24, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5790629)
OSU would be way ahead if it weren't for the turnover, penalties, and settling for 19 yd FGs.
   378. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5790630)
that is not targeting.

the tosu defender was literally backing away so he wouldn't hit the receiver high.

okay, the refs got the call right on the field, they reviewed it, and they stuck with the call. that's good work by the reffing crew.
   379. . . . . . . Posted: November 24, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5790631)
UM playing it’s worst game of the year at the worst time. It’s just exquisite how they find a way to lose differently every year.
   380. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 24, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5790632)
The big question is whether a convincing win today would be enough to take OSU above OU. I doubt it. If not now hard to believe it would happen if both teams win their conference championships.

Then there's also the spectre of Alabama with a sole loss to Georgia in the SEC championship.

Notre Dame losing today would open up a slot of course.
   381. Brian C Posted: November 24, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5790633)
Gators have left points all over the field today and still are winning by 20 with 8 minutes to go, with FSU just kicking a give-up punt deep in their own territory. It's really astonishing how terrible FSU is. They've had some mediocre teams in the 30 years I've been watching, but nothing like this.
   382. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5790636)
It's really astonishing how terrible FSU is. They've had some mediocre teams in the 30 years I've been watching, but nothing like this.
any idea why? it looks like they recruit well, so talent shouldn't be an issue. i guess they have a lot of guys leave early, and their QBs haven't been overly impressive, but that shouldn't tank them like this.
   383. Quaker Posted: November 24, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5790638)
I think we can all agree the committee would be doing fans a major disservice if they kept this Michigan team out of the playoff. After all, they spanked Penn State--who squeaked by App St in OT--very soundly. That has to outweigh the losses to OSU & ND's backup quarterback.

The public would certainly be up in arms if the committee didn't prioritize arcane computer rankings over actual on-field results.
   384. Red Voodooin Posted: November 24, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5790639)
The public would certainly be up in arms if the committee didn't prioritize arcane computer rankings over actual on-field results.


What computer is going to rank Michigan highly after this drubbing?!
   385. Brian C Posted: November 24, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5790640)
What computer is going to rank Michigan highly after this drubbing?!

Recalibrate your sarcasm detector, bro.
   386. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5790641)
I think we can all agree the committee would be doing fans a major disservice if they kept this Michigan team out of the playoff. After all, they spanked Penn State--who squeaked by App St in OT--very soundly. That has to outweigh the losses to OSU & ND's backup quarterback.

The public would certainly be up in arms if the committee didn't prioritize arcane computer rankings over actual on-field results.
this discussion started with this comment:
if georgia, clemson and michigan win out, a 12-0 notre dame gets left out of the CFP, right?
do you notice a conditional statement there? how about here:
if michigan rolls tosu on the road, if georgia beats alabama, UND is not guaranteed anything.

i guess that's too complicated for some people to keep up with.
   387. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 24, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5790645)
Rooting for Michigan is like rooting for the Red Sox before 2004. It's a neverending torture.
   388. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 24, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5790646)
It wouldn't surprise me if some computer rankings still had Michigan ahead of OSU after this game.
   389. Quaker Posted: November 24, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5790647)
if georgia, clemson and michigan win out, a 12-0 notre dame gets left out of the CFP, right?


Yes, your initial statement was absolutely wrong, and your contention that Michigan was a clear top 4 team as evidenced by their beating PSU & two unranked B1G teams by wide margins doesn't look much better.
   390. Quaker Posted: November 24, 2018 at 04:09 PM (#5790648)
It wouldn't surprise me if some computer rankings still had Michigan ahead of OSU after this game.


Sagarin Predictor had UMich ahead of OSU by 2.8 coming into today. With a 23 point final margin, I'd guess it ends up pretty close one way or the other.
   391. . . . . . . Posted: November 24, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5790649)
Rooting for Michigan is like rooting for the Red Sox before 2004. It's a neverending torture.


Why did my father will to me this ####### nightmare fandom.
   392. Srul Itza Posted: November 24, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5790650)
So, all that semi-heated discussion about Michigan vs. Notre Dame is probably a bit moot, pending a loss by Notre Dame.
   393. Quaker Posted: November 24, 2018 at 04:35 PM (#5790651)
Michigan's loss probably actually hurts ND's chances in the event the Irish lose tonight. If it had been 1-loss UM vs. 1-loss ND, it would essentially be a contest of how the committee valued a H2H win vs. a conference title. If it's 1-loss OSU vs. 1-loss ND, OSU will have both the conference championship and a higher MOV vs. a common opponent (UM) with the B1G championship adding a second common opponent to the equation.

538 says if UGA/ND/OSU all lose, it's 29% ND gets in, 29% UGA, 21% UCF with UW & LSU both having > 10% chances as well. In reality, I don't think the latter two have any shot.

If UGA/ND/OU lose, 538 says it's 24% ND, 23% Texas, 21% UGA, 16% UCF, 10% LSU.
   394. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: November 24, 2018 at 07:41 PM (#5790673)
I was guilted into DVRing the Florida-Florida State game so I could attend a family outing. That was a pleasant evening meal.
   395. McCoy Posted: November 24, 2018 at 08:24 PM (#5790676)
So is this the game that Notre Dame blows? They always do it
   396. Meatwad Posted: November 24, 2018 at 08:40 PM (#5790679)
I will be very annoyed if they do.
   397. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2018 at 08:50 PM (#5790681)
So is this the game that Notre Dame blows? They always do it
there's a 46% chance that UND gets into the playoffs with a loss.
   398. Quaker Posted: November 24, 2018 at 08:57 PM (#5790682)
This is not shaping up to be an enjoyable evening.
   399. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: November 24, 2018 at 09:02 PM (#5790687)
If Notre Dame loses today, I think they'd be behind OU and OSU as 1-loss conference champs, and behind 1-loss Alabama. So if they lose, they better hope Alabama wins and one of those other two loses. Even then, they may have to contend with Georgia and LSU (if they win today) and potentially even UCF (though I doubt it).
   400. McCoy Posted: November 24, 2018 at 09:04 PM (#5790688)
No running game, Fromm doesn't have the touch, and the only passes they can do are behind the line of scrimmage passes. Not a good sign.
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