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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, August 30, 2012
The 2012 College football thread!
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of note, always get a kick of out big time programs playing on the road in small time places. This weekend we get UCLA at Rice, A&M at La. Tech, OU at UTEP.
EDSBS did a fun preview of Oregon-ArkState a couple months ago:
Strength of schedule and all that, but Rice is 8-16 and UCLA 10-16 the past two years. Hard times in Westwood. I'm confident Jim Mora will not turn it around.
I generally like for Texas to do this. You don't want your first road game being against a tough, in conference opponent. You learn things in road games with a lot of your young players.
I agree totally. It looks like most of the books have the O/U at 68 right now, and I'm pretty damn tempted to throw down a few bucks on the over, because it's going to be wild.
I don't know what to expect from MSU. The entire fanbase and much of the media is just assuming they'll be ok despite losing every receiver that caught a pass last year and a three-year starting QB.
Excited for the games tonight. I wonder what WSU will look like in game one.
among other places. There was no shortage of places that had a chance to court Leach, but declined. I will really be surprised if he isn't successful over the next few seasons.
Well, I guess the rest of the conferences did get their fill of the Big East.
Too far east for the Big East.
Hurricane Isaac has taken out my power, hopefully back on by Saturday so I can watch the Michigan-Alabama game.
What do you guys think about the NC State-Tennessee and Clemson-Auburn games?
I think--no wait, know--the fans of those teams in town and staying in down town hotels this weekend are in for a treat.
Speaking as someone who once spent a couple of days sharing a hotel with a Star Trek convention (inadvertently to be sure), I can only imagine Dragon Con, and the effect it may have on any non-Dragon Con hotel guests. I don't know whether to be enthused or appalled that the Dragon Con people have an official policy regarding weapons and how they may be carried, etc. I suppose they know their constituency well or have had some "unfortunate" incidents in the past.
They've tightened their policy on fake weapons and the use of actual swords.
It is an interesting social experiment. I remember 2 years ago seeing both ends of it in rapid succession. I was in an elevator with a bunch of DragonCon goers, one in a really detailed and well done BSG Viper pilot outfit... and two LSU sorority girls. They were on the verge of freaking out, they couldn't wait to be released from their geek cage. Shortly after that some other LSU fans came down and partied with the DragonConners and were really cool about it. They were like "there's a party, we're there! #### yeah!" They weren't judgmental, they saw a lot of people having a good time and wanted to join in. Now that there's two games: twice the fun.
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GT planning a honeycomb helmet? Meh.
No, P12N, I will not be cancelling my DTV subscription.
What do you guys think about the NC State-Tennessee and Clemson-Auburn games?
I'm thinking the underdogs win in both. NC State has a really good line and a big time QB. Clemson has a few important guys out, including Watkins.
I'm thinking the underdogs win in both. NC State has a really good line and a big time QB. Clemson has a few important guys out, including Watkins.
Has anyone ever analyzed the scores in week 1 to see if they're higher variance than in the rest of the season, particularly in competitive games (games between major conference teams). Intuitively, I'd think that the mean outcome is the same as in other weeks - i.e., the distribution of betting lines would be the same in week 1 as in week 10 (in competitive games), but the odds of a week 1 underdog winning would be higher than the odds for a week 10 underdog getting the same number of points.
I haven't studied this empirically of course. I always feel there's more opportunity or more 'WTF lines' in September than I do Oct or Nov. I seek opportunity in teams that are favorites, but the lines simply haven't 'caught' up. During the 1st Bill Snyder era, K-State was perfect for this for a number of years, I'd joke and make that type of a pick a part of an overall investment strategy, as his teams were always underfavored. Diversify!, Stocks 80%, 10% Fixed Income, 10% Alternative Fixed Income a/k/a K State laying the points.
This can work the other way too but the opportunities are typically gone by October.
Record: 8-4 regular season.
Wins: Bowling Green, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Louisiana, Jacksonville State.
Losses: LSU, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida State.
Potential Upset Win: South Carolina in Gainesville.
Potential Upset Loss: Vanderbilt at Vanderbilt. That game scares the hell out of me.
Surprising Player Development: Mike Gillislee rushes for more than 1,000 yards.
Result of Quarterback Battle: Jeff Driskel wins the job after week three. Jacoby Brissett transfers, perhaps to Miami.
Much as I hope this happens, Auburn's starting center, and their best (and one of the few experienced) OL, was suspended for the game. His backup only has 4 game snaps. It's going to be tough for them.
I'm exactly the guy they're trying to target with their network.
But if they think the prospect of losing 135 Pac-12 men's basketball games is going to make anybody switch television providers, they clearly haven't been watching much Pac-12 men's basketball lately.
Well, in that case we can count Nebraska at UCLA next week...
It's nice to see someone else thinks Kent State could be bowl-bound this year. Thing is, they almost have to win the league to get a bowl invite; nobody's going to choose to invite a school with no fans to a bowl game.
OTOH, maybe they're intentionally putting UCLA, Arizona, and the marketable teams on the network in an attempt to maximize interest.
He was their coach-in-waiting but I think he got tired of waiting for Friedgen to retire and left on his own. And at the time he was their OC and MD's offense wasn't really lighting the score board up. I seem to remember people not being all that high on Vandy hiring him.
And a bad pass by Jordan Rodgers...this game might be like last year's Arkansas-Vandy game...
And USC's kicker wears a number in the 50's. Interesting.
With the success of guys like Franklin or Hoke and Kiffin, I think its pretty obvious that there's a model for a successful coach that doesn't involve being a genius X's and O's guy, but CEO-of-the-program type who recruits and markets the program and leaves the nitty-gritties to assistants (in the case of Kiffin and Hoke, senior assistants who aren't HCing because they don't want to, not b/c they're not qualified).
Those are fine points but it overlooks that it's Jim Mora coaching the team.
I expect a better second half here. The first drive was promising until the turnover. Lots of chippy play too, flags on both sides, head butts, cheap shots and taunting.
I think that's absolutely right, although Hoke is a guy who consistently coaches his guys up. Not sure if that's all his assistants or not, I don't know if he's had the same guys since Ball St.
Oh, my. Awfully hard to make a catch when the other guy is holding down one of your arms.
Just saw the highlight, that's a hard non-call. Tough luck Vandy. I have to agree that the Cocks didn't look all that impressive from what I saw (first quarter and the highlights). I thought Connor Shaw would be better at throwing the ball. His first quarter pick was a pretty lousy throw. Lattimore looks like he's back though.
Minnesota threatening to check in with the annual horribly embarrassing Big Ten OOC loss. Edit: Just tied it up at 10 at UNLV. I wonder if that program will ever recover.
well they did have a guy pick up a punt and run with it....the wrong way, and still won big over Towson, so they got that going for them.
Edit: Tie game!
I'll be surprised if they don't miss the kick here.
Edit: Awww, he made it. Boo.
Hey Minnesota? You just went triple overtime to beat a Mountain West school that's 4-22 since 2010. You might not want to run around celebrating like you just won the Super Bowl.
Andy Reid has heard of your league and his agent will be in touch.
Regardless of whether or not its the same guys or not (Al Borges has been with him since SDSU, IIRC), the guys he hires have the same role. The key is if you don't hold yourself out as an X's and O's ubermensch, you can bring in strong assistants who wouldnt want to work under a more, shall we say "hands-on" guy. Hoke, e.g., had Rocky Long as his DC at SDSU (and Rocky Long is a damn good coach in his own right, if he went .500 at New Mexico) and has Mattison as his DC now. Different guy, but same role - experienced, older, basically an HC-caliber guy who is working as a coordinator by choice.
I dont think a coach can rely on a singular "guy" as an assistant, because coordinators come-and-go (see, e.g., Jeff Casteel or Will Muschamp crippling the coaches they separated from), but he can attract a "type".
Wasn't John Cooper doing this very thing back at Ohio State?
Michigan fans are talking themselves into believing that the backup - Thomas Rawls - is better suited to bruise it up with the Bama defense. I have to say, I'm almost convinced they're right if he's actually as healthy as the team is saying he is.
After the third blocked PAT they started going for two.
This is a load of ####. Rawls is hurt and he's not half the back that Toussaint is. I'd rather throw our true-freshman scat back out there and pray.
we'll find out next week when Nebraska pays a visit to Pasadena.
I know there's a lot of misdirection, but the coaching staff has been adamant about Rawls being fine. And good luck sending a true freshman scat back out there to try to run against that front 7 and protect Robinson. You're going to need someone who can help against that pass rush and move the chains enough to give Robinson at least some chance to throw the ball or it's going to look exactly like Michigan-State last year. Except worse.
For this reason, I though Zook could be a decent football CEO at Illinois. Recruit well enough and have good enough assistants to win 7 or 8 games a year. He brought in the talent, but had terrible performance. Not knowing the score when going for two seems to hurt.
No way. Michigan is so overwhelmingly out-talented in this game that it needs to resort to trickery and high-variance game strategy to even have a puncher's chance. If this game comes down to running backs picking up blitzers to give Robinson time to throw from the pocket, they're done. And trying to run inside against the likes of that Australian man-beast is folly; not that Michigan's OL is bad, mind you, but they're not nearly at Alabama's DL talent level and they're breaking in a new center and will be EXOTICRUSHSCHEMEPWND.
The only chance Michigan has, IMO, is to get Robinson moving, do whatever it takes to get to the edge, force Alabama to respect to the outside run and then hopefully go over the top on a few carefully selected plays. That means a lot of Denard runs, some option, and alot of short passes/screens to the scat backs / slot guys. Michigan doesn't have an outside receiver worth a damn anyways (pending how Gardner looks), so there's no point in trying to beat Alabama pro-style.
Michigan State looks good, Boise State looks like a team that lost a crap ton of starters.
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