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Thursday, August 30, 2012

OT: Sept 2012 Regular Season NFL Football Thread

New season, new threads.

First game is next Wed., on Sept. 5th, Cowboys vs Giants at Metlife Stadium in New York.

Tripon Posted: August 30, 2012 at 07:32 PM | 591 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: football

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   1. Benji Posted: September 01, 2012 at 07:10 AM (#4224288)
49ers will win it all, and Trent Dilfer will lose the distinction of "worst QB to win a Super Bowl".
   2. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: September 01, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4224364)
Da Bears! will win it, playing against NE denver will make the afc title game, bears beat the packers to get there.

   3. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 01, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4224408)
meat got his drinking in early and it shows

packers will win 10 games

don't know about defense

but a guy like rodgers always give a team a shot

and that is all it takes
   4. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: September 01, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4224483)
Im sober Harveys! just too lazy to form a proper sentence. and yes the bears will win the superbowl
   5. cardsfanboy Posted: September 01, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4224487)
I predict that one of the following teams will be in the Super Bowl.... Colts, Steelers, or Patriots. I've made the same prediction for the past 11 years and have been right 10 times.... (ok not really, but I would have been if I did---gotta love parity due to salary cap) (if you add Denver you get 14 of the last 17)
   6. Tripon Posted: September 01, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4224488)
First year of the real retirement of Ricky Williams.
   7. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 01, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4224490)
meat

old defense. schedule. o line iffy

win it all?

nah
   8. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4224538)
I predict that one of the following teams will be in the Super Bowl.... Colts, Steelers, or Patriots. I've made the same prediction for the past 11 years and have been right 10 times....

I have no idea who is coming out of the AFC, but I am 107.63% certain it is not going to be the Colts.
   9. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4224544)
[5] 9 of 9 sounds a lot better to me than 10 of 11. Just ignore Brady's first SB.

Edit: The other funny thing is that in those 11 years, the only NFC team to make it twice is the Giants. Lots of parody in the NFC.
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4224546)
I have no idea who is coming out of the AFC, but I am 107.63% certain it is not going to be the Colts.


agreed, but it doesn't change the validity of the claim. I find a salary cap to be hilarious in an American game that claims to be red/white/blue while basically enforcing the most radical and restrictive socialist structure in the U.S, and not actually bothering to bring parity to the league.
   11. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4224547)
As noted, I really have no feel for this season at all so far, but that has never stopped anybody on the internet from loudly proclaim something, so in that spirit:

AFCW
4 Baltimore over 5 Oakland
3 Pittsburgh over 6 Buffalo
NFCW
3 NYG over 6 Detroit
4 Atlanta over 5 Dallas

AFCD
1 Houston over 4 Baltimore
2 NE over 3 Pittsburgh
NFCD
2 GB over 3 NYG
1 SF over 4 Atlanta

AFCC
1 Houston over 2 NE
NFCC
2 GB over 1 SF

SB
GB over Houston
   12. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Panda. Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4224601)
OK, I'll play too.

AFCW
4Oakland over 5Pittsburgh
3Baltimore over 6Denver
NFCW
6NYG over 3Carolina
4Philly over 5Detroit

AFCD
1Houston over 4Oakland
3Baltimore over 2New England
NFCD
1Green Bay over 6NYG
2San Francisco over 4Philly

AFCC
3Baltimore over 1Houston
2San Francisco over 1Green Bay

SB
Baltimore over San Francisco
   13. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: September 01, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4224809)
Mixed 4 and 5 seeds in the AFC obviously. I blame lack of coffee.
   14. hokieneer Posted: September 01, 2012 at 10:35 PM (#4224838)
Did someone just predict an Alex Smith v Joe Flacco QB matchup in the superbowl? I love it. The NFL and ESPN would collectively #### their pants trying to generate enough content to cover 2 weeks of build up.
   15. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: September 03, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4225722)
this was kind of an annoying week. the eagles cut keenan claytan, julian vandervelde, brent brackett, and phillip thomas. the 3 former names were all claimed on waivers, while phillip thomas hasn't yet found a landing spot.

the eagles put themselves on the line with vandervelde, thomas, and clayton as they cut each of them in favor of other personnel--they replaced vandervelde with nate menkin, they replaced phillip thomas with david sims, and they decided to keep casey matthews ahead of keenan clayton.

it's entirely possible that the eagles acquisitions will be more productive than their castoffs, but it's gonna be a shot to the nuts if any of clayton, vandervelde, brackett, or thomas become productive starters.



anyway, i'd love to say that the eagles will finish 14-2, but they won't. there'll be some combination of events, either awful safety/linebacker play, or an inability to stop the run, or an inability to get off the field on 3rd down, or the offense not having their timing, or the offense getting outplayed physically, or vick turning the ball over,or vick getting injured, or andy reid running out of timeouts, or...


on the other hand,i think it's a possibility that the eagles will break the single-season sack record. if the offense can put points on the board early, the defensive line is 10 deep in terms of guys who can get to the QB. the DTs--cullen jenkins, fletcher cox, derek landri, and cedric thornton--are all guys who collapse the pocket, and the DEs--babin, cole, hunt, graham, and tapp--are edge rushers who attack the QB with reckless abandon. there's some real talent there.
   16. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: September 04, 2012 at 09:52 AM (#4226048)
Harvey, 10 games for the Pack? I think you're underselling the team -- and I say that as a Bears fan. I think 12-13 wins is easily within their grasp.

Also, I wish I could see the Bears winning it all, but I think this is maybe a 9-10 win team. I expect they'll get a wild card berth, but the O-line and defense are going to be problematic, and they won't get past the first round.
   17. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:00 AM (#4226054)
Did Rafeal Bellylard just pick Carolina to win the NFC South? Really?!

This is Matt Ryan's 27-year old season. It's the year he goes Tom Brady/Peyton Manning on the league.
   18. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4226073)
AFC
3 Steelers over 6 Chiefs
4 Broncos over 5 Ravens
1 Texans over 4 Broncos
2 Patriots over 3 Steelers
1 Texans over 2 Patriots

NFC
6 Falcons over 3 Giants
5 Cowboys over 4 Panthers
1 Packers over 6 Falcons
2 Seahawks over 5 Cowboys
1 Packers over 2 Seahawks

Packers 34 Texans 14

2013 NFL Draft
1. Jaguars
2. Dolphins
3. Cardinals
4. Browns
5. Colts
   19. Randy Jones Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4226098)
I find a salary cap to be hilarious in an American game that claims to be red/white/blue while basically enforcing the most radical and restrictive socialist structure in the U.S, and not actually bothering to bring parity to the league.


That's because the salary cap isn't intended to create parity, it's intended to keep payroll costs down and increase profits to the owners, which it does.
   20. Eddo Posted: September 04, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4226141)
Also, I wish I could see the Bears winning it all, but I think this is maybe a 9-10 win team. I expect they'll get a wild card berth, but the O-line and defense are going to be problematic, and they won't get past the first round.

Me too, though I'd up the win total slightly, to 10-11 wins. The biggest problem facing the Bears is that they're clearly worse than another team in their division, which really hurts when it comes time to go on a playoff run.

My predictions:
NFC
3 Falcons def. 6 Saints
5 Bears def. 4 49ers

1 Packers def. 5 Bears
2 Giants def. 3 Falcons

1 Packers def. 2 Giants


AFC
3 Steelers def. 6 Bills
5 Ravens def. 4 Chargers

1 Texans def. 5 Ravens
3 Steelers def. 2 Patriots

1 Texans def. 3 Steelers


Super Bowl
Packers def. Texans
   21. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4226144)
eddo

surprised you are giving the packers this level of success. as a packer fan i acknowledge the good fortune in terms of how the team received turnovers and won close games. i do not think the defense will advance enough to offset the obvious step back in those other areas. and the offensive line is very thin. one serious injury and the passing game changes significantly.

this is not poormouthing. the packers season could go south pretty easily
   22. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4226150)
I'm just going to assume the Panthers are this year's darling pick for people who want to be "edgy."
   23. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4226153)
Oooh, predictions!

NFC
6 Eagles def 3 Niners
5 Bears def 4 Giants

1 Packers def 5 Bears
2 Falcons def 6 Eagles

1 Packers def 2 Falcons

AFC
6 Bills def 3 Texans
4 Broncos def 5 Steelers

1 Patriots def 4 Broncos
6 Bills def 2 Ravens

1 Patriots def 6 Bills

Superbowl
Patriots def Packers
   24. booond Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4226160)
Everyone looks to love the Texans which means we should all run in the opposite direction. Texans strengths are running game and, possibly, defense but Schaub, Andre and a cast of thousands concern me when they have to throw, especially since Andre and Schaub don't like to play a full slate of games.

Ravens/Patriots look to be class of AFC

49ers, Falcons, Packers in NFC
   25. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4226171)
very negative on san fran

   26. BDC Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4226180)
Sports Illustrated on Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray:

His teammates gush about his intensity and how he runs with a mean streak, and in one recent practice he set the tone by bowling over reserve cornerback Teddy Williams, sending him to the sidelines with a concussion


That's how far we have left to go in confronting the "concussion crisis": it's still considered a huge positive to send one of your teammates to the turf with an addled brainpan.

But hey, I'm still a fan. I too want a safer sport, but I'd like it to be recognizably American football, a test of power and (literal) momentum.

I have no idea how to project the Cowboys. They were the pattern of on-again off-again last year. SI picks them to win the NFC East. Randy Galloway, over the weekend, had a story something like "If all goes well, they could win more than eight games" or something like that. Sounds about right :)
   27. booond Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4226186)
very negative on san fran


I'm not a huge fan of the QB but they play defense, run well, the receivers are reasonable and special teams are a positive. The weakness is getting the end zone. This hurts them when they play better teams.
   28. andrewberg Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4226190)
This looks fun.

AFC
5 Cincinnati def. 4 Denver
3 Houston def. 6 Baltimore

1 New England def. 5 Cincinnati
3 Houston def. 2 Pittsburgh

1 New England def. 3 Houston

NFC
5 Philadelphia def. 4 San Francisco
3 New York def. 6 Chicago

5 Philadelphia def. 1 Green Bay
2 Atlanta def. 3 New York

5 Philadelphia def. 2 Atlanta

Philadelphia def. New England

Possible sleeper teams- Titans, Seahawks, Panthers
Possible falling back teams- Ravens (worried about health of defense), Saints, Lions
   29. Eddo Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4226197)
eddo

surprised you are giving the packers this level of success. as a packer fan i acknowledge the good fortune in terms of how the team received turnovers and won close games. i do not think the defense will advance enough to offset the obvious step back in those other areas. and the offensive line is very thin. one serious injury and the passing game changes significantly.

this is not poormouthing. the packers season could go south pretty easily

Oh, certainly, though I think you could say that about any team. In terms of predictions, on paper, the Packers appear to be the most likely to win the Super Bowl. But no one is by any means a strong favorite, let alone an overwhelming one.
   30. andrewberg Posted: September 04, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4226202)
I'm not a huge fan of the QB but they play defense, run well, the receivers are reasonable and special teams are a positive.


It is unlikely that their defense will be as healthy as it was last year (SF).
   31. Kurt Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4226214)
I had a heck of a time picking a second AFC wild card team; I wish I could slide the Bears over there.

AFC
3 Denver def. 6 NYJ
4 Pitt def. 5 Balt.

4 Pitt def. 1 NE
2 Houston def 3 Denver

2 Houston def 4 Pitt

NFC
3 Philadelphia def. 6 Seattle
5 Atlanta def. 4 NO

3 Philadelphia def. 2 SF
1 GB def. 5 Atlanta

1 GB def. 3 Philadelphia

GB def. Houston
   32. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4226246)
not actually bothering to bring parity to the league.


I think the only way to deny that there is parity in the NFL is to focus on a few arbitrary selected criteria. The fact is, in the NFL nearly every team is within two years of contention, and pretty much everybody gets their day in the sun.

Let's take the proffered date range of the last 11 years (2001 - 2011). In that time frame:

NFC West: Rams in the Super Bowl. Seattle in the SB. Cardinals in the SB. 49ers in the NFC Championship game.

NFC North: Green Bay wins SB. Bears in the SB. Vikings in the NFC Championship game. Detroit historically bad but with a young, exciting team

NFC East: Giants win the SB. Eagles in the SB. Cowboys up and down but with playoff appearances. Only the Redskins have fallen consistently short.

NFC South: New Orleans wins SB. Tampa Bay wins SB. Carolina in the SB Atlanta in NFC Championship.

So over that span 14 of 16 NFC teams have come close to winning it all, even historically bad franchises like Tampa and Arizona.

AFC West: Raiders in SB. Chiefs in AFC Championship. Broncos in AFC Championship. Chargers in AFC Championship.

AFC North: Steelers win SB. Ravens win SB. Bengals up and down but with playoff appearances. Cleveland is Cleveland

AFC East: Patriots win SB. Jets in AFC Championship. Bills pretty stinky. Dolphins two playoff appearances.
AFC South: Colts win SB. Titans in AFC Championship. Jaguars generally bad, but with two playoff appearances. Texans an expansion team so hard to judge.


Here 10 of 16 have made the championship, two bad teams (Buffalo, Cleveland), three others semi-competitive, and one expansion team that is up and coming (Houston).

Seems pretty parity-filled to me.
   33. Eddo Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4226248)
I had a heck of a time picking a second AFC wild card team; I wish I could slide the Bears over there.

Me too. Is this the year the balance of power shifts back to the NFC? You could argue last year was a step in that direction, as well.
   34. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4226253)
boond

special teams are rarely consistent from year to year due to personnel changes. their receivers are old and dreadful so i find your assessment puzzling. unless you are counting vernon davis as a receiver in which case they have one good player surrounded by dreck

their best defensive lineman is 33 years old. i don't know if he can re-create his crazy rhino performance of 2011. yes they have other good defenders and defense can be more reliable from year to year.

san fran has a tougher schedule, the division is better and there are too many factors pushing against them. i can see them winning 10 games if the defense is still strong and harbaugh really does coach up the offense.
   35. Randy Jones Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4226256)
I think the only way to deny that there is parity in the NFL is to focus on a few arbitrary selected criteria.


There may or may not be parity in the NFL. The salary cap has nothing to do with it though.
   36. DA Baracus Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4226262)
Philadelphia def. New England


1 GB def. 3 Philadelphia


Man you guys are going to be disappointed. And I say that as an Eagles fan. I have doubts they'll even have a winning record.
   37. JJ1986 Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4226267)
their receivers are old and dreadful so i find your assessment puzzling.


I think neither Crabtree nor Moss will offer much, but Manningham is a good receiver.
   38. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4226269)
the afc has several teams that i perceive as having too much age at key positions like baltimore, the jets, and pittsburgh. i have to think these teams will take a step back. i could easily see the jets winning 3-4 games.
   39. andrewberg Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4226296)
Man you guys are going to be disappointed. And I say that as an Eagles fan. I have doubts they'll even have a winning record.


I'm picking Philly to win purely as a fan, although I think they might have the most raw talent in the league.
   40. Kurt Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4226303)
Man you guys are going to be disappointed. And I say that as an Eagles fan. I have doubts they'll even have a winning record.

I'll be disappointed if I'm *right*, as a Giants fan.


i could easily see the jets winning 3-4 games.

For all their problems last year the Jets won 8 games. This year, their schedule in addition to 2 with Buffalo and 2 with Miami includes:

Indy
@Rams
Arizona
@Jax
SD

I would happy bet a bb-ref sponsorship on them winning more than four games.
   41. Kurt Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:12 PM (#4226306)
And I agree with Harveys about Pittsburgh and Baltimore taking a step back. I just don't see who takes a step forward to pass them.
   42. Eddo Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4226319)
Let's take the proffered date range of the last 11 years (2001 - 2011).

...

Chiefs in AFC Championship.


The Chiefs topped out in 2003, losing in the divisional round to the Colts.

However, that doesn't really refute your overall point (which I agree with). They were indeed 13-3 that year, and have made the playoffs multiple times since then.
   43. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4226320)
kurt

all those teams you list save jacksonville strike me as being better than 2011.
   44. zenbitz Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4226334)
Long time 49er fan here. They are probably not going to win 13 games this year, and I agree with Harveys that their special teams is due for some fall off. Their other huge win last couple years is amazing health on defense. However, I disagree about Justin Smith. He has been a monster for 5 years - going back to his time with the Bengals, but the teams around him were terrible and he got no press. The other Smith (OLB) is pretty good and you could say that they have 2 of the best 3-4 ILBs in the NFL.

IF they can keep their pass rush fresh and healthy - I think their defense will be very solid, top 8.
Their special teams was worth about 40 points last year -- but they have the best punter and one of the best PKs in the league -- I think that that will stay consistent. Will the kick coverage be as good? Hard to say. I expect the return (15 points) teams to drop off. But I would say they would probably still be about +15-20 points on ST overall. One thing in their favor is that they were 3rd-5th best in EACH area of SP (FG/Punt/Koff/Punt return/KO return) - not just fluky good in one area. They did get a new coach in 2011 or 2012 and there is some evidence that the ST coaches have consistent year-to-year results.

But if they just fall off a little, and don't collapse back to 50th percentile, the team probably still wins 9, and the division is bad.

So what matters for the Niners is the offense. They changed their RG. They added 2 veteran receivers. They actually know the offense now (well, I am not convinced this matters, but it might). Smith has actually been servicable for 2 years - even discounting last years flukey INT rate. He could possibly improve. The tackle position is weak as well.

What really matters is the following:

1) Can they run the ball more effectively even vs. 8 man fronts?
2) Can the upgraded WRs take some pressure off the running game and get separation to beat the blitz?
3) Can the OL pass protect without Davis chip blocking?

Everyone knows the Niners can't (couldn't) pass the ball in obvious passing downs. Less well known is that they struggled running the ball in obvious running situations (and passed very effectively in those situations!).
   45. zenbitz Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4226339)
very negative on san fran


the afc has several teams that i perceive as having too much age at key positions like baltimore, the jets, and pittsburgh. i have to think these teams will take a step back.


Harvey's why you hate defense?

   46. AROM Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4226343)
I would happy bet a bb-ref sponsorship on them winning more than four games.


I agree with that. They'll beat Miami in those two games for sure. Buffalo might be a decent team this year. But if the Jets really disappoint and are playing like a 3-4 win team early, Sanchez will be benched and Tebow will get them a few wins.

I'm a little worried that Harvey is not drinking the Packer (Leinenkugel flavored) kool-aid. Just got Rodgers in fantasy and am hoping to ride his arm to a league title.
   47. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4226346)

The Chiefs topped out in 2003, losing in the divisional round to the Colts.


The last time the Chiefs won a playoff game I was in high school, Joe Montana was the Chiefs QB, Warren Moon was the QB he defeated in the Astrodome, LA had two football teams, Trent Richardson was two years old, four NFL teams that currently exist had not yet been created yet. A few weeks after the Chiefs win, Jurickson Profar would be born.
   48. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4226351)
Packers 34 Texans 14

Super Bowl
Packers def. Texans

GB def. Houston

Bunch of copycats.
   49. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: September 04, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4226362)
But if the Jets really disappoint and are playing like a 3-4 win team early, Sanchez will be benched and Tebow will get them a few wins.

Does not compute.
   50. Every Inge Counts Posted: September 04, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4226405)
AFC:
1. New England
2. Houston
3. Baltimore
4. Denver
5. Buffalo
6. Pittsburgh

AFC is very weak to me. The 2 wild card teams can come from anywhere. I really like what Buffalo has done on defense and they have a better offense than the Jets.


NFC:
1. Atlanta
2. Green Bay
3. Philadelphia
4. Seattle
5. New Orleans
6. Detroit

NFC is loaded in talent. Detroit, Chicago, San Fran, New York Giants, Dallas would all be better than almost anything the AFC put out. They are 11-12 legitimate playoff teams in the NFC, there are about 4 in the AFC.

Super Bowl: Green Bay over Houston
   51. andrewberg Posted: September 04, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4226451)
I really like what Buffalo has done on defense and they have a better offense than the Jets.


They have some excellent tools. If Fitzpatrick threw 20+ picks because of a legit injury, they could very well win a wild card. If he threw 20+ picks because that's what he is, they will miss the playoffs.
   52. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 04, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4226462)
Detroit, San Fran and Cincy seem like prime regression candidates. I think everyone is overvaluing Buffalo because of their free agent splurge, but they still have Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. I think Denver is a good regression candidate too, but someone has to win that division. KC seems like a good bounceback candidate since they get back so many players that missed '11, but they looked so god awful in the preseason and are already hit with injuries again, I just can't pick them.

I didn't pick NOLA to make the playoffs, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them play a lot better than people think they will. Any team that has Drew Brees at QB is going to be pretty good.

Philly and San Diego seem like long-time good teams that will finally hit the wall this year.

I fully admit I'm probably overvaluing Seattle, but there always seems to be one team that kinda comes out of nowhere to get a top 2 seed. Seattle has a good running game, a pretty solid defense, and Russell Wilson was pretty impressive. OTOH, Pete Carroll.

I had no idea Houston was going to be that popular of a pick.
   53. JJ1986 Posted: September 04, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4226465)
I think everyone is really sleeping on New Orleans. Their defense has been bad enough that it can't hurt them more and their offense shouldn't have any problems. I also think it might take 11 wins for an NFC WC.

NFC
5 ATL def 4 SF
3 NYG def 6 CHI

1 NO def 5 ATL
3 NYG def 2 GB

1 NO def 3 NYG

AFC
3 HOU def 6 OAK
4 DEN def 5 PIT

4 DEN def 1 NWE
2 BAL def 3 HOU

2 BAL def 4 DEN

Super Bowl - BAL over NO
   54. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4226503)
regarding green bay:

marshall newhouse is a good kid who tries hard and i am sure he loves his mother but he was a terrible left tackle last year and almost got rodgers killed on several plays. and if he goes down the backup is a cardboard cutout of chad clifton. the packers are wishcasting on good health from their starting offensive line because it gets ugly fast if anyone misses time.

on the defense the d-line remains an unknown and with desmond bishop out for a while that means a whole lot of aj hawk who was one step above a dead man in terms of performance in 2011. charles woodson continues to work in a smaller and smaller box and within that box he is great but if that box is smaller than the patience i have for my in-laws then the packers have a problem. the cornerback position opposite tramon williams is a question mark and in a pass crazy league having uncertainty in the secondary is being in the fast lane towards having to win games 35-31. packers tried that and come playoff time it didn't work so well.

so you have a team that has centered its season the quarterback being phenomenal, given him a protective barrier anchored by a young man with bad feet and no punch and improved the defense by drafting a bunch of kids and looking at them through lenses that makes everyone look like a member of the 1996 packer defense.

sure, it's a plan.

pardon me if i observe the flaws
   55. Guapo Posted: September 04, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4226508)
I predict the best team in September will not be the best team in January.
   56. Every Inge Counts Posted: September 04, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4226509)
I am probably just a homer, but I think Detroit is probably going to be as good as they were last season, if not better. If that is good enough to make the playoffs, I don't know. But they had little turnover (return 21 of 22 starters) and have a young nucleus that should improve instead of regress.

Also they get back a healthy Nick Fairley and Mikel LeShoure as well. Perhaps neither are as good as their draft status, but it is something.
   57. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4226510)
by the way, i am firm and i do mean firm believer that turnovers are luck. i will not debate teh point as i posted on football outsiders in their first year this notion and schwartz wrote a snotty message on how if i wanted to do the research and post it that would be great otherwise just hush and then 2 years later they came out with this big 'ta da' on how fumble recovery was luck and i just smirked and said to myself no sh8t sherlock

i also think most interceptions are luck though a bit less so.

the packers got a lot of turnovers last year.

ain't gonna happen. if that defense is not better this team is in serious deep water and i don't think for all of aaron's greatness he can paddle fast enough to keep the season afloat
   58. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4226523)
what i do like about the packers is last i checked there were 4 guys in their 30's on the roster. football is a young man's game by far.

   59. Kurt Posted: September 04, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4226579)
Fumble recovery is one element of turnovers, not the whole ball of wax.
   60. zenbitz Posted: September 04, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4226588)

I am really looking forward to week 1 Niners @ Packers. I think it will be very telling for both teams' 2012 season - not really W/L so much as are the two teams competitive and play a cloase game. Although, of course @55 has an excellent point. And if Harvey's right about both teams then it could be a thrilling 27-28 game between two 8-8 teams.
   61. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 06:09 PM (#4226591)
kurt

i have seen loads of research. it's mostly luck

and please don't point me to the bs that fo is putting out as their version. been there done that.

so go ahead and write me off as stupid. i am fine with that.





   62. JJ1986 Posted: September 04, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4226599)
I think it's really hard to tell if there's a year-to-year correlation with turnovers. Rosters turn over at incredible speeds, defensive coordinators get replaced all the time and some players, like Ed Reed, can skew the numbers all by themselves. And I think playing with a lead all the time, like the Packers have done recently, can artificially inflate them. Even if they're somewhat predictable overall, I'd think it's impossible to predict for any specific team.
   63. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: September 04, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4226665)
Cool, fun


AFC
WC
3 Denver def. 6 Baltimore
5 Buffalo def. 4 Cinci

D
1 NE def. 5 Buffalo
2 Houston def 3 Denver

C
2 Houston def 1 NE

NFC
WC
6 New Orleans def. 3 San Francisco
5 Detroit def. 4 Dallas

D
2 GB def. 6 NO
1 Atlanta def. 5 Detroit

C
1 Atlanta def. 2 GB

SB
Atlanta def. Houston


You guys are obviously right. The AFC WC is going to be a crapshoot. It's all going to come down to the seeding via tiebreakers - I'm pretty confident NE/Hou are going to be the top 2 seeds, but who comes out of the West and North and their respective records is going to determine the course of the first couple of rounds. Of course I expect NE and Hou to get to the AFC Championship game anyway, most likely.
   64. zenbitz Posted: September 04, 2012 at 09:18 PM (#4226687)
Just for fun I checked SF's age vs. Green Bays -- and Harvey's correct (not that I doubted him) they only have 4 guys over _29_

Old 49ers:
Akers (PK) - 37
L. Davis (backup OG) - 33
Goodwin (C) - 33
Moss (WR) - 35
J. Smith (DT) - 32
Sopoaga (DT) - 31
Rogers (CB) - 32
Haggins (back up OLB 35 - he was just signed off waivers when Harralson went on IR
Jennings (long snapper) - 35

Jacobs (3rd RB) 30
Lee (P) 30

Of these, obviously the kickers and the long snapper don't count. But Smith/Sopoga/Rogers are all front line - every down starters.

For Green Bay:
Driver (WR) - 37
Pickett (DT) - 32 - I guess he is Raji's backup
Saturday (C) - 37
Woodson (DB) - 35


Interesting (but not surprising) that the old(er) players are all the same positions (although Justin Smith is much more of a DE than DT)

   65. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 04, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4226691)

I am probably just a homer, but I think Detroit is probably going to be as good as they were last season, if not better. If that is good enough to make the playoffs, I don't know. But they had little turnover (return 21 of 22 starters) and have a young nucleus that should improve instead of regress.


Perhaps. I like them, but I question their secondary and running game. They did catch a break in that the two divisions they will face this year are the worst in football - the AFC South and NFC West. That might inflate their win total a bit.

Man, the NFC does seem loaded. I don't have the Saints or Lions or Bears or 49ers in the playoffs, and I could see any of those teams being as high as a #3 seed in the AFC.
   66. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2012 at 09:30 PM (#4226695)
zen

saturday and woodson will play all time

pickett rotates in and out at end, not nose

driver is kept around for reasons i cannot fathom as i took ted thompson as a guy with no sentimentality. driver's hands are going, he gets hurt more frequently when at one time driver was impervious to injury and he struggles to get away from even average corners.

donald should have left head held high
   67. Tripon Posted: September 04, 2012 at 09:42 PM (#4226701)
Wed's game is on NBC btw.
   68. VoodooR Posted: September 04, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4226754)
AFC
4 Pittsburgh over 5 Houston
3 Baltimore over 6 Oakland

1 New England over 4 Pittsburgh
2 Denver over 3 Baltimore

1 New England over 2 Denver

NFC

4 New York over 5 Detroit
6 Philadelphia over 3 San Francisco

6 Philadelphia over 1 Green Bay
2 Atlanta over 4 New York

2 Atlanta over 6 Philadelphia

Patriots over Falcons in Super Bowl
   69. Bad Doctor Posted: September 05, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4226940)
AFC
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Houston
4 Kansas City
5 New York
6 Buffalo

Houston over Buffalo, New York over Kansas City
Pittsburgh over Houston, New England over New York

Pittsburgh over New England

NFC
1 Green Bay
2 Atlanta
3 New York
4 San Francisco
5 Chicago
6 Philadelphia

Chicago over San Francisco, Philadelphia over New York
Atlanta over Chicago, Philadelphia over Green Bay

Atlanta over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 47: Atlanta over Pittsburgh

Baltimore seems to me to be the team poised to take a big drop, what with the age and attrition in their O line and front seven. That makes picking AFC wild cards even tougher. With the limited upside and tough schedules out West, it basically leaves just CIN, NYJ, and BUF.

Wanted to pull the trigger on Seattle in the NFCW, but I figure that even with the expected regression the Niners should still have a stout enough defense to pull through. I also really forced Atlanta through to have something besides just GB/NE/PIT ... I think they're plenty good, but I think they'll need somebody with a more stout 4 man pass rush to get the Packers out of their path. I think a GB-ATL rematch may resemble the playoff game of two years ago. Also, it is tough to sleep on the Saints, but coaching just has to matter enough to justify all those 100 hour weeks, doesn't it? The last person to disagree with that was the Old Ball Coach in DC, and that didn't end terribly well for him.
   70. JJ1986 Posted: September 05, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4227008)
Something I don't understand is why Joe Vitt has been coaching the Saints. They're already without their head coach. I would want them to be getting ready with the guy who is going to be actually coaching the team for the first six games. Switching guys (twice, before week 1 and when Vitt comes back) seems like needless complication.
   71. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 05, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4227272)
   72. DA Baracus Posted: September 05, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4227278)
Something I don't understand is why Joe Vitt has been coaching the Saints.


I get why the Saints would have him be the coach, he was Payton's right hand man. What I don't get is why the NFL allowed a suspended coach to be the interim head coach (once he returns from suspension). Which is probably quibbling since it seems that Sean Payton is still in charge:

Of course, I'm following the Saints real closely with the TV copy and the coaches tape and all those other things.


How did he get coaches tape? No one from the team is allowed to interact with him.
   73. JJ1986 Posted: September 05, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4227292)
Is that the all-22 tape? Because that's available to the public starting this season.
   74. DA Baracus Posted: September 05, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4227316)
Is that the all-22 tape? Because that's available to the public starting this season.


It is. And yes, it's available to the public starting this season. But it isn't right now and he's saying he has it.
   75. Tripon Posted: September 05, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4227323)


I get why the Saints would have him be the coach, he was Payton's right hand man. What I don't get is why the NFL allowed a suspended coach to be the interim head coach (once he returns from suspension). Which is probably quibbling since it seems that Sean Payton is still in charge:


I would have fired him just to avoid this situation. When a man has that much control despite being suspended, the whole system is out of whack.
   76. cardsfanboy Posted: September 05, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4227333)

That's because the salary cap isn't intended to create parity, it's intended to keep payroll costs down and increase profits to the owners, which it does.


But it's marketed to the fans as a parity creator. Everytime the Yankees win something, or get a free agent you will see articles and people clamoring for a MLB salary cap to re-introduce parity (like the NFL) into MLB.

There was actually, living, breathing human beings who were against the players for being to greedy in the last round of CBA. I do not know what magic the NFL weaves to get people to assume that the organization isn't utterly corrupt, but it's something that every politician needs to learn how to bottle.
   77. cardsfanboy Posted: September 05, 2012 at 02:58 PM (#4227358)
So over that span 14 of 16 NFC teams have come close to winning it all, even historically bad franchises like Tampa and Arizona.

...........................

Here 10 of 16 have made the championship, two bad teams (Buffalo, Cleveland), three others semi-competitive, and one expansion team that is up and coming (Houston).

Seems pretty parity-filled to me.


Same timespan for baseball.

NL West Giants win W/S, Diamondbacks win, Rockies in w/s, Dodgers in championship game
NL Central Cardinals win, Astros in, Cubs in championship game, Brewers in championship game
Nl East Braves in championship, Marlins win, Mets in championship game, Phillies win,

So in the NL You have 12 out of 16 (Padres with 2 division titles win only one playoff game, Nationals we all know about, Reds who have won the division two years in a row now, and the Pirates)

In the Al

Al West Rangers in ws, Angels win, A's in championship game, Mariners in championship game
Al Central Tigers in ws, Indians in championship game, White Sox won,
Al East Yankees won, Red Sox won, Rays in Ws,

In the Al you have 10 out 14 teams make it to the championship, (Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals and Twins who won 5 division titles in that time frame...missed out) Not seeing the parity advantage in the NFL.

Not saying you are claiming there is a parity advantage, saying others are and that MLB needs to follow the evilness that is the NFL model.
   78. JJ1986 Posted: September 05, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4227391)
Football Outsiders DVOA is out. They're insanely high on the Jets (8th best team, 9.5 mean wins), way high on Carolina, down on Detroit and incredibly down on the whole NFC West.
   79. jmurph Posted: September 05, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4227412)
I would have fired him just to avoid this situation. When a man has that much control despite being suspended, the whole system is out of whack.


Between the suspensions, the fine, and the loss of draft picks, it's inexplicable that they didn't fire him. How do you justify that? He's a good play-caller? Not good enough.
   80. DA Baracus Posted: September 05, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4227416)
Between the suspensions, the fine, and the loss of draft picks, it's inexplicable that they didn't fire him. How do you justify that? He's a good play-caller? Not good enough.


Because he won a Super Bowl, so Tom Benson loves him. The GM, Mickey Loomis is suspended for 8 games so in the meantime he's the Executive Vice President of the Hornets.
   81. zenbitz Posted: September 05, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4227419)
This had me in tears: 2012 NFL preview in 16 animated gifs
   82. jmurph Posted: September 05, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4227423)
Because he won a Super Bowl, so Tom Benson loves him.


Sure, but lots of coaches have rings. He caused the loss of their head coach for a year, the indefinite suspension of their DC (who, granted, was really bad at his job, but no one seemed to realize that previously), the loss of another key coach for 6 games, and the loss of multiple high, extremely valuable draft picks.
   83. JJ1986 Posted: September 05, 2012 at 03:50 PM (#4227424)
the indefinite suspension of their DC


Williams was gone already.
   84. jmurph Posted: September 05, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4227434)
Williams was gone already.


Damn, thanks for the correction. I still think it's crazy.
   85. DA Baracus Posted: September 05, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4227437)
Sure, but lots of coaches have rings. He caused the loss of their head coach for a year, the indefinite suspension of their DC (who, granted, was really bad at his job, but no one seemed to realize that previously), the loss of another key coach for 6 games, and the loss of multiple high, extremely valuable draft picks.


Sure, but clearly Tom Benson doesn't want to lose him. His opinion is really all that matters.
   86. Dan The Mediocre Posted: September 05, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4227439)
I believe Benson had told Payton to stop the bounties and Payton failed to/ignored him. So Payton failed to take action that could have very easily reduced the penalty significantly.
   87. jmurph Posted: September 05, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4227445)
Sure, but clearly Tom Benson doesn't want to lose him. His opinion is really all that matters.


Well, yeah, I get why he's still employed: the guy who signs the paychecks didn't fire him. I'm just saying he clearly should have. Super Bowl winning coaches get fired for going 9-7. Payton caused measurable damage to the franchise. Benson is an idiot.
   88. DA Baracus Posted: September 05, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4227471)
Well, yeah, I get why he's still employed: the guy who signs the paychecks didn't fire him. I'm just saying he clearly should have. Super Bowl winning coaches get fired for going 9-7. Payton caused measurable damage to the franchise. Benson is an idiot.


I get that, and I think we all agree. But Tom Benson can do what he wants with the team (within certain limitations of course).
   89. JJ1986 Posted: September 05, 2012 at 09:09 PM (#4227742)
Running straight up the middle is not the best idea when you have a backup center and two crappy guards in.
   90. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 06, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4228099)
Art Modell has died, which will probably not trouble too many of our Ohio-based NFL fans.
   91. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 06, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4228132)
Everyone keeps saying Modell was an innovator, but no one seems to say why exactly he was an innovator.
   92. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: September 06, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4228167)
This had me in tears: 2012 NFL preview in 16 animated gifs

Awesome. Especially the ones for Rams and Cardinals. And Vikings.
   93. Tom Nawrocki Posted: September 06, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4228176)
Yeah, Bob Irsay was the one who pioneered the whole "stab your fans and your city in the back" strategy. Modell was late to the party on that one.
   94. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: September 07, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4229699)
Saints win Bounty appeal players can play
   95. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: September 07, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4229702)
That's really going to make Goodell look bad.
   96. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: September 07, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4229704)
   97. JuanGone..except1game Posted: September 07, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4229706)
Art Modell has died, which will probably not trouble too many of our Ohio-based NFL fans.


I am having a hard time shedding a tear, and an even harder time not saying something that might condemn myself or Trent Richardson to a karmic boomerang.
   98. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: September 07, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4229716)
Tom Scocca: Art Modell, 1925-2012: grifter, traitor, model NFL owner

"I have a great legacy, tarnished somewhat by the move. The politicians and the bureaucrats saw fit to cover their own rear ends by blaming it on me," Modell said. "They built a new ballpark, a new arena, a science museum and the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, but I couldn't get running water in the upper deck."

Next paragraph:
The Ravens now play in a lavish new stadium—as do the expansion Cleveland Browns.

How you feel about that punchline—and the $550 million of public money smoldering beneath it—is a pretty good test of how much of a schmuck you are. Today's obituaries mostly assume schmuckhood. The AP assures us that Modell was "beloved in Baltimore." Do tell.

   99. Eddo Posted: September 07, 2012 at 06:12 PM (#4229756)
That's really going to make Goodell look bad.

Yes and no. Essentially, the appeal was upheld due to lack of evidence. Goodell can still re-suspend them, as long as he provides evidence.

While I definitely agree that Goodell overstepped his bounds with regard to due process, I also am a bit surprised at how public sentiment has been rather strong on the side of players who were paying each other to intentionally injure other players. Not for hard hits, not for critical stops, but for dirty plays.
   100. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 07, 2012 at 09:05 PM (#4229816)
76--yeah; I think that points to a pretty ugly truth, which is that fans basically don't give a damn about the players; treating players badly is a double win: it saves money and gets a PR bonus for the league.

National Laundry League.
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