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Thursday, August 30, 2012

OT: Sept 2012 Regular Season NFL Football Thread

New season, new threads.

First game is next Wed., on Sept. 5th, Cowboys vs Giants at Metlife Stadium in New York.

Tripon Posted: August 30, 2012 at 07:32 PM | 591 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: football

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   501. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 23, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4280565)
The Bears probably have the best defense in the league, so even if their offense is suddenly the worst - which seems unlikely as long as the Browns are still around - that would put them overall as a midpack team.
   502. Kurt Posted: October 23, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4280588)
The Bears probably have the best defense in the league, so even if their offense is suddenly the worst - which seems unlikely as long as the Browns, Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars, Chiefs, Panthers, Cardinals, Rams are still around - that would put them overall as a midpack team.
   503. hokieneer Posted: October 23, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4280599)
Chiefs


Brady Quinn!! just hand off please.
   504. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4280643)
The Bears are a decent team, but they don't seem quite consistent enough to be confident they can survive the NFC playoff gauntlet and make it to the Super Bowl.
   505. McCoy Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4280652)
Also keep in mind McCoy is generally very, very pessimistic regarding the Bears. Not that that's necessarily a bad thing, but it drives his predictions.

Well, I wasn't down on them last year when Cutler went down. I thought for sure they would do better than they did when he went down so I don't think it is really fair to call me pessiistic about the Bears. For the most part I've predicted that the Bears over the years would not do much and they haven't done much. I've never predicted some 2-14 season or anything like that. I've usually predicted that they weren't going to win the big game and they generally didn't. I'v hated the offensive line for over a decade now and they have yet to do anything that proves my opinion to be wrong or unfounded. I'm not one of those Bears fans that hates Cutler or thinks he doesn't care. I've never been sold on the greatness of Forte and I don't think Smith is a very good head coach. Like I said earlier I don't think that makes me a very pessimistic Bears fan.
   506. McCoy Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4280657)
The Bears defense seems to be going to back to the old Smith system of defense which is stop the run, bend don't break on the pass, and get the other team to make a mistake. Granted the team isn't an exact clone to the old days since the pass rushing is better than it was in the old system but this defense is relying heavily on the other team to consistently make mistakes. I don't think the good teams will do that week in and week out against Bears in the second half of the season. IF the opposing team's offense and special teams don't consistently make mistakes then the Beras and the Bears defense is in trouble.
   507. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4280663)
post 506

my two cents on coach smith is that in working with the gm they have taken a different path to success in that the team focuses first on defense then special teams and then offense. or at least it seems that way.

the bears ability to field consistently good to great special teams is extraordinary and i believe unprecedented at least in terms of being consistently really good as this aspect of a team is subject to the greatest turnover. (no pun intended)

i don't know if that makes smith a good coach but he is somewhat unique
   508. Eddo Posted: October 23, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4280669)
Well, I wasn't down on them last year when Cutler went down. I thought for sure they would do better than they did when he went down so I don't think it is really fair to call me pessiistic about the Bears. For the most part I've predicted that the Bears over the years would not do much and they haven't done much. I've never predicted some 2-14 season or anything like that. I've usually predicted that they weren't going to win the big game and they generally didn't. I'v hated the offensive line for over a decade now and they have yet to do anything that proves my opinion to be wrong or unfounded. I'm not one of those Bears fans that hates Cutler or thinks he doesn't care. I've never been sold on the greatness of Forte and I don't think Smith is a very good head coach. Like I said earlier I don't think that makes me a very pessimistic Bears fan.

Fair enough, McCoy, but I still think you're more pessimistic than most, especially in regards to Lovie Smith. His Bears teams are consistently no worse than an average team, which is saying a lot in the NFL.
   509. zenbitz Posted: October 23, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4281114)
I think the Bears have a reasonable chance against the Niners even without Cutler. I mean, they would probably win 3-2, or 9-6 but that doesn't seem improbable. Also, if the 49ers kickoff coverage doesn't play better the Bears could win on Devin Hester alone.

Actually I don't think Cutler healthy moves the needle much in this game at all (of course it's a month away). The Bears are not likely to score a lot of points on offense either way - it comes down to Special Teams and Niners schizoid offense vs. Bears defense. And if they DO have offensive success, it will be because they can run the ball. EDIT: heh, ambigious sentence. I meant the Bears but it applies equally the other way)

So you are down to third order effects like "Cutler behind center creates a viable enough passing threat to allow the Bears to run on SF".

Both SFs losses were due to a defense taking away the run game. Chicago's pass defense is quite a bit better than NYG or MIN, so I think that if they stop the run, it's going to be a very low scoring game.
   510. McCoy Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:14 PM (#4281133)
Fair enough, McCoy, but I still think you're more pessimistic than most, especially in regards to Lovie Smith. His Bears teams are consistently no worse than an average team, which is saying a lot in the NFL.

The problem is that I think they can be better than consistently average and they get to average because Smith can't really do a lot of things well besides coach the cover-2.

As Harvey mentioned their special teams has been good for awhile and it was good even before Smith got here when they had Abramowitz or whatever the special teams coach's name was. I can't really credit Smith on that one, that is more of an organizational credit than a coach's system credit. The offense has been bad, cautious, and generally done a poor job of time management during Smith's entire tenure. You can and I do to a degree blame the GM but Smith also has to get a ton of blame for that as well. His defense has been good to really good during his time here and I do credit him for that but I've never really believed that Smith's defense can stand up against a really good QB and offense.
   511. McCoy Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:19 PM (#4281137)
LAst year the Bears scored 4 offensive touchdowns in the last 5 games and one of those TDs came during garbage time. If Cutler goes down the Bears are going to have to rely on their defense and special teams to score points for them every single game and a lot of them each game.
   512. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4281158)
Right now the bears back up qb is worlds better then what they had last year. Lets not forget the offense has marshall now and in a month or so jeffery comes back. They didnt have recivers any where near that big last year.

This bears team with cutler goes at least 12-4 my guess is 14-2
   513. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: October 23, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4281160)
And for the record those turnovers arnt luck they are just that damn good at creating them
   514. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:01 PM (#4281165)
meat

love you to death but turnovers are mostly luck. the bears are still a very good team but turnovers are mostly luck

don't think the quality of the defense has much to do with turnovers. it's not a sustainable, repeatable thing from year to year
   515. Eddo Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4281184)
The problem is that I think they can be better than consistently average and they get to average because Smith can't really do a lot of things well besides coach the cover-2.

As Harvey mentioned their special teams has been good for awhile and it was good even before Smith got here when they had Abramowitz or whatever the special teams coach's name was. I can't really credit Smith on that one, that is more of an organizational credit than a coach's system credit. The offense has been bad, cautious, and generally done a poor job of time management during Smith's entire tenure. You can and I do to a degree blame the GM but Smith also has to get a ton of blame for that as well. His defense has been good to really good during his time here and I do credit him for that but I've never really believed that Smith's defense can stand up against a really good QB and offense.

Toub is a fantastic special teams coach, yes. But Lovie Smith still has to allow Toub to specifically bring in players for special teams. Many coaches, like Jim Schwartz, don't do that - they simply use backups as their special teamers. And Ambramowitz left the organization in 1996, and the Bears special teams wasn't really great again until Lovie (and Toub) came aboard in 2004.

I also don't see how you can call something "organizational" and separate it from Lovie Smith. At this point, with Angelo gone, he is the head of the organization. Ted Phillips doesn't really make any football decisions any more.

Smith's not a good offensive coach. But he's a fantastic defensive coach, and that goes beyond the cover-2 defense. The Bears consistently get the most out of their defensive personnel, and develop lineman and linebackers quite well, and that's on Lovie and the staff he put together.

Aaron Rodgers has his worst games against the Bears, pretty consistently. The Bears can't beat the Packers because the offense - primarily Cutler - usually shits the bed.
   516. McCoy Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4281199)
I'm not disputing that Smith puts together a good defense but that is about all he does do well.
   517. Kurt Posted: October 23, 2012 at 11:47 PM (#4281229)
Actually I don't think Cutler healthy moves the needle much in this game at all (of course it's a month away). The Bears are not likely to score a lot of points on offense either way - it comes down to Special Teams and Niners schizoid offense vs. Bears defense. And if they DO have offensive success, it will be because they can run the ball. EDIT: heh, ambigious sentence. I meant the Bears but it applies equally the other way)


On top of all this, the one thing Jason Campbell does well is avoid turnovers. To a fault, but he's a very good fit for the Bears. Of all the playoff contenders, I think the Bears are the best positioned to handle an injury to their starting QB.
   518. Randy Jones Posted: October 24, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4281389)
love you to death but turnovers are mostly luck. the bears are still a very good team but turnovers are mostly luck

don't think the quality of the defense has much to do with turnovers. it's not a sustainable, repeatable thing from year to year


I thought it was recovering fumbles that was luck, but that causing fumbles and getting interceptions was actually a skill(or at least a decent part of it was a skill)?
   519. SoSH U at work Posted: October 24, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4281395)
I thought it was recovering fumbles that was luck, but that causing fumbles and getting interceptions was actually a skill(or at least a decent part of it was a skill)?


I don't know about INTs, but Peanut Tillman's propensity for forcing fumbles sure as hell isn't luck. And there are several others on the team that are skilled in that arena as well.



   520. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM (#4281403)
randy

i have seen loads of studies and remain unconvinced that interceptions are a true repeatable, sustainable skill at a team level.

an individual level i will budge a little

and i should use 'random' in lieu of 'luck'. poor word usage

folks yammer all the time about 'opportunistic' defenses and that cr8p and it's just trying to explain what is mostly random

i am not the guy to discuss this with as i am not going to budge after this many years of seeing teams turnover rates fluctuate wildly from year to year and folks continuing to insist that there is an element that is consistent and sustainable at a team level

so ignore me on this topic and i will work to not mock the contentions of this team or that team being awesome at generating turnovers.
   521. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 24, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4281404)
and to be clear i regard the bears defense as very, very good

the turnovers are ancillary to their core abilities to beat up opposing offenses
   522. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 24, 2012 at 10:34 AM (#4281406)
that is what drives me nuts. the bears are a tremendous defense and the turnovers are just icing on the cake

but people point to the turnovers as evidence that this is a great defense

that's just silly

the bears do many, many things defensively that are great. the turnovers are way down the list as proof

   523. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4281417)
Tillman is definitely a skilled causer of fumbles but it isn't like he causes a fumble on every play he is in. He'll cause a fumble maybe once every 1 to 3 games. As for the INT, this year the Bears have been very very lucky in this department. The opposing team has basically confused a Bears' defensive player for an offensive player on 4 or so INT this year and they have been returned for TDs. That isn't a skill that one can rely on.

One of the big reasons why I didn't like the old cover-2 that Smith ran was because it depended heavily on turnovers and against good offenses you can't rely on turnovers.
   524. SoSH U at work Posted: October 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4281426)
Tillman is definitely a skilled causer of fumbles but it isn't like he causes a fumble on every play he is in.


That would probably make him the best player in the history of the NFL, so no, he's not that.

I agree with the argument that INTs are mostly luck. As are recovering fumbles. But forcing fumbles can be a skill. And it is one Tillman (and, to a lesser extent, some of his teammates) possesses.


   525. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4281431)
Most certainly but it isn't a skill you can design a gameplan around. It's a bonus that occasionally pops up in favor for the Bears.
   526. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 24, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4281468)
it's the manner in which the bears defense that allows some of the players to try and force fumbles. the bears scheme, effort and abilities create circumstances where player 'a' can go for the ball knowing that player 'b' and maybe 'c' are nearby to clean up if in the effort to go for the ball player 'a' lets the offensive player break free

charles woodson did the same thing with green bay knowing that nick collins was in the area to pick up if things went awry
   527. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 24, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4281487)
another positive for lovie is how 'hard' the bears game to game. it's very impressive getting that effort so consistently

it's not the norm

on a player level julius peppers had question marks around his effort coming out of carolina and in chicago he has been a force every season, game to game

lovie smith is a middle class man's bobby cox in that he has to be great at connecting with players but struggles with in-game decisions and tactics.
   528. SoSH U at work Posted: October 24, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4281553)
Most certainly but it isn't a skill you can design a gameplan around.


Did someone suggest otherwise?

   529. Dan The Mediocre Posted: October 24, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4281555)
it's the manner in which the bears defense that allows some of the players to try and force fumbles. the bears scheme, effort and abilities create circumstances where player 'a' can go for the ball knowing that player 'b' and maybe 'c' are nearby to clean up if in the effort to go for the ball player 'a' lets the offensive player break free


That particular tactic does risk extra yards on a lot of plays, but turnovers are more valuable in total. I have to agree with you that turnovers are something a good defense creates simply by playing good defense.
   530. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4281562)
Did someone suggest otherwise?

Well, when people talk about the Bears being able to win even without Cutler in part because of their defense then, yes someone is suggesting otherwise.
   531. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: October 24, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4281565)
This conversation resembles the "are the Orioles really very good" threads.
   532. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4281568)
That particular tactic does risk extra yards on a lot of plays, but turnovers are more valuable in total. I have to agree with you that turnovers are something a good defense creates simply by playing good defense.

For the most part the Bears don't really risk extra yardage by going for the ball. The Bears of early Smith were of the gang-tackle style of tackling. The first defender would stop you and the rest would swarm you, beating you up and trying to strip the ball. In recent years they've gone away from large scale gang tackling but they still style of tackling around this tactic it just generally only involves two or three players instead 4 to 6 players. As for Tillman he is very skilled at wrapping you up with his body and on arm while punching the ball with the other hand but he also knows when to try for it in single coverage and when not to. He generally doesn't try to punch the ball out of a runners hand if it is a straight one on one situation and the runner is stable. If the runner is twisting, jumping, stumbling, diving or what have you Tillman will go for the punch in one on one situations.
   533. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4281612)
Fumble recoveries are definitely a skill:

Most fumbles recovered, career: 56, Warren Moon.
Most own fumbles recovered, career: 56, Warren Moon.
   534. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 24, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4281649)
Does anyone know where to find a copy of the opening NFL lines each week, going back 1, 2, or 3 years? Doesn't really matter which source.
   535. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 24, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4281693)
Does anyone know where to find a copy of the opening NFL lines each week, going back 1, 2, or 3 years? Doesn't really matter which source.

Not absolutely sure about this, but some of those pre-season football magazines used to have information like that, as a way of measuring betting patterns. You might just check a good Times Square newsstand, if in fact such things even still exist.
   536. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4281705)
This may have been posted and dicussed already, but if not, here it is. Having marveled at Griffin and already thought of him as the most amazing QB I've seen since the days of Roger Staubach in terms of all-around skills, I was a bit surprised by what I read:

Luck vs. Griffin, a Statistical Comparison

After seven weeks, Robert Griffin III of the Redskins has exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. He leads the N.F.L. with a 70.4 completion percentage, and could become the first rookie to lead the league in that category since Parker Hall with the Rams in 1939.

Griffin also ranks first in yards per attempt with an 8.5 average, and could become the first rookie since another Ram, Bob Waterfield in 1945, to lead the N.F.L. in that statistic. Only two rookies in professional football history have ever led the league in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. The first was another Redskin, Sammy Baugh, in 1937; the last was Greg Cook, in the American Football League in 1969 (his career was ruined by a shoulder injury that year).

Griffin’s statistical domination of the record book has been astounding. And that’s before we get to the fact that he has 468 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns in seven games, putting Cam Newton’s rookie rushing records in both categories (706 and 14) in jeopardy....

But traditional statistics don’t always tell the full story, especially when we’re dealing with a sample size that’s smaller than half a season. Those watching [Andrew] Luck have usually come away thinking that he’s the next great quarterback, despite the raw numbers. Fortunately, there’s a way to fill in the rather large gap between perception and statistical production. One of those tools is ESPN’s Total QBR, which ranks Luck as the sixth-best quarterback in the N.F.L. this season. That’s even ahead of Griffin, who is eighth in QBR.

Jeff Bennett of ESPN Stats & Information, in a telephone interview, was able to help explain why Luck was not only the best rookie quarterback this season, but also perhaps the most underrated quarterback in the N.F.L....


   537. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4281710)
Thanks, Andy. I'll take a look.
   538. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4281726)
I still think Griffin is going to end up being a bust. QBs simply cannot run in the NFL and hope to be effective season in and season out for a decent amount of time.
   539. DA Baracus Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4281732)
QBR is a worthless stat. Even Chase Stuart should be smart enough to realize that.
   540. JJ1986 Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4281738)
Does anyone know where to find a copy of the opening NFL lines each week, going back 1, 2, or 3 years? Doesn't really matter which source.


WalterFootball.com archives every pick he makes, and I think most of them have lines as of a few hours before gametime.
   541. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4281750)
I still think Griffin is going to end up being a bust. QBs simply cannot run in the NFL and hope to be effective season in and season out for a decent amount of time.

Depends on how selective he is about his running, and maybe even more on the quality of his protection. Roger Staubach had the closest match of skill sets I've seen to Griffin, and he managed to have a pretty good career, if not an unusually long one. Of course Staubach was more of a great scrambler than a proactive runner, so the comparison isn't all that precise.

Anyway I'm completely conflicted about Griffin. Love watching him in action and like watching the Skins, hate the owner and don't like the coach. It's even worse than the conflict I felt while watching this year's Orioles.
   542. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4281760)
Depends on how selective he is about his running, and maybe even more on the quality of his protection. Roger Staubach had the closest match of skill sets I've seen to Griffin, and he managed to have a pretty good career, if not an unusually long one. Of course Staubach was more of a great scrambler than a proactive runner, so the comparison isn't all that precise.


If running is something he does when he has to, or on very limited occasions, a la Steve Young or Aaron Rodgers, he has a good shot. If he runs as a matter of course, he will not be long for the NFL. Between the hits, and the exhaustion after big runs, he'll falter.
   543. Eddo Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4281774)
lovie smith is a middle class man's bobby cox in that he has to be great at connecting with players but struggles with in-game decisions and tactics.

Which makes him like almost every coach. In-game decision-making, in terms of time management, fourth-down decisions, and challenges, is pretty piss-poor across the league. Even Belichick punted from his opponents' 30-something yard line a few weeks ago.

EDIT: Not saying you'd disagree with me, HW. And I'll take the six-days-a-week good coach over the in-game tactician who can't connect or coach up his players.
   544. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:47 PM (#4281782)
Depends on how selective he is about his running, and maybe even more on the quality of his protection. Roger Staubach had the closest match of skill sets I've seen to Griffin, and he managed to have a pretty good career, if not an unusually long one. Of course Staubach was more of a great scrambler than a proactive runner, so the comparison isn't all that precise.

Anyway I'm completely conflicted about Griffin. Love watching him in action and like watching the Skins, hate the owner and don't like the coach. It's even worse than the conflict I felt while watching this year's Orioles.


Staubach isn't really a great comp because the game is different. QBs can't run nowadays because eventually they are going to suffer some sort of catastrophic event that is going to destroy them and their effectiveness. No QB ever made can continually take hits from these steroided up LB and DL game after game.
   545. zempf Posted: October 24, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4281828)
Does anyone know where to find a copy of the opening NFL lines each week, going back 1, 2, or 3 years? Doesn't really matter which source.


I've got them up on pfref for the past few years on boxscore pages like http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201109110kan.htm though that's likely the line from just before the game.
   546. hokieneer Posted: October 24, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4281846)
RG3 is averaging 9.14 rushing attempts per game.

Some "modern" comparisons (these are career numbers RAtt /GS):

S. Young: 5.05
Cunningham: 5.74
Rodgers: 3.96
Roethlisberger: 2.52
Vick: 7.88
Cam Newton: 7.82
V. Young: 5.64


Yeah he needs to throw it away and stay in the pocket more. He's an extremely accomplished passer already, and with his accuracy you'd think he could set in the pocket and be just fine. Is it O-line issues? WR unable to get separation? Or does he just like to scramble?
   547. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 24, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4281856)
RG3 is averaging 9.14 rushing attempts per game.

Some "modern" comparisons (these are career numbers RAtt /GS):

S. Young: 5.05
Cunningham: 5.74
Rodgers: 3.96
Roethlisberger: 2.52
Vick: 7.88
Cam Newton: 7.82
V. Young: 5.64


Okay, that's an eye opener. I now get what you all are saying. I also see that Staubach only tried 3.1 RPG and Tarkenton only 2.7.
   548. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: October 24, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4281871)
Is it O-line issues? WR unable to get separation? Or does he just like to scramble?


Yes?

He was hella impressive on the final TD drive against NY Sunday, because his scrambles were to evade rushers, after which he threw the ball. That's Rodgers/Young/Rapistberger type "running." Running as a runner - tucking the ball so that the contact rules for QBs are replaced by the "hit him as hard as you like, just not in the helmet" contact rules for RBs is just a recipe for disaster.
   549. McCoy Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4281876)
Tim Tebow not starting all of his games makes it a little hard to put his numbers up there but needless to say that last year he was averaging almost 9 rushes a game as well.
   550. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 24, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4282081)
QBR is a worthless stat. Even Chase Stuart should be smart enough to realize that.


Well, it depends what you're using it for. It's a pretty good measure of how efficient and productive your passing offense is.

As to using it to measure individual QBs, well, it's not totally worthless. But unless you account in some way for the type of offense the coach is running, its value is very limited. Does Sanchez's QB rating suck because Sanchez sucks, or does it suck because Ryan has directed a conservative offense with limited passing and a bunch of small-yardage passes when they do pass?

I actually don't think much of this has to do with the quality of the receivers. Nearly all of the receivers in the NFL are immensely talented; there's just not that much of a gap between talent levels, except perhaps with the truly elite receivers.
   551. hokieneer Posted: October 24, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4282266)
Yes?


No doubt RG3 is a world class athlete and has speed to burn, so there will always be conversations and comparisons to Vick and crew. He is just so much better at every thing else (reads, accuracy, ball security, etc) than any of those other prototypical running qbs, that I was as shocked as Andy to see how many times he's tucked it and ran. I hope when he gets a little more talent around him, he morphs into that Steve Young / Aaron Rodgers mold. If not he's going to have a short career.
   552. Randy Jones Posted: October 25, 2012 at 07:25 PM (#4283445)
If we are trying to compare RG3's propensity to run the ball when he can't find an open receiver, shouldn't that list of rushing attempts per game be adjusted for number of drop backs per game and also have designed QB rushes removed?
   553. DA Baracus Posted: October 25, 2012 at 07:29 PM (#4283448)
Well, it depends what you're using it for. It's a pretty good measure of how efficient and productive your passing offense is.


You're thinking of passer rating. I'm talking about (and so is that article) ESPN's "QBR."
   554. Tripon Posted: October 25, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4283755)
Whoever owns Doug Martin this week is off to a good start. 26 fantasy pts and counting.
   555. Tripon Posted: October 26, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4283947)
Ends with 33.40 pts in standard yahoo leagues, and much more in PPR formats.
   556. steagles Posted: October 26, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4284534)
more fun with danny watkins:
Certainly odd that Andy Reid would decide to tell us today that Danny Watkins has a "chronic" ankle and that #Eagles knew it before draft.

so, let's see, at the time of the draft, watkins was a 26 year old guard who didn't touch a football until he was 21 and had chronic ankle issues.

jesus ####### christ.
   557. steagles Posted: October 28, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4286034)
24-7 in the first half.

i can't help but be happy about it. the defense was the only adequate part of the team through the first 6 weeks, so of course, when andy reid decided to shake the team up, it was the defensive coordinator that got the axe, and not the offensive coordinator, whose unit has sucked, or the offensive line coach, whose unit has sucked, or the special teams coach, whose unit has sucked, or the defensive line coach, whose unit has sucked.

no, they were all safe coming out of the bye, and it was juan castillo who had to go.


and now i'm just smirking, because the defense has given up 24 points on 4 drives in the first half, and they probably could have gotten a perfect 28 if they hadn't left a timeout in their pocket during the 2 minute drill at the end of the half.



one other really schadenfreudey thing is that everyone on the eagles pregame show picked the eagles, because they had apparently not watched them play this season, so it should be really fun to see their despondency on the postgame show.
   558. VoodooR Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:00 PM (#4286039)
Jets getting curbstopped at home by the Dolphins a week after taking the Patriots to the wire. This Jeckyl/Hyde act cannot bode well for Ryan's coaching future.
   559. JJ1986 Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4286045)
Andy Reid should probably fire himself for giving up on the game with 20 minutes to go.
   560. DA Baracus Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4286048)
Andy Reid should probably fire himself for giving up on the game with 20 minutes to go.


Challenging the spot then punting is like a letter of resignation.
   561. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4286054)
So, I know every fan thinks the national press underrates their team, but does today's throttling of Philly on the road (assuming it holds) move the respect-needle for the Falcons, or is the narrative out of this game "Eagles play poorly?"
   562. DA Baracus Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4286057)
It doesn't move the needle. This is yet another win over an unimpressive team by the Falcons.
   563. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4286059)
It doesn't move the needle. This is yet another win over an unimpressive team by the Falcons.


That's what I assume will be the case too.
   564. steagles Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4286061)
So, I know every fan thinks the national press underrates their team, but does today's throttling of Philly on the road (assuming it holds) move the respect-needle for the Falcons, or is the narrative out of this game "Eagles play poorly?"
i think the falcons are past the point where they can get any respect at all by winning a regular season game. people already know they can do that. if they want respect, they really have to make a deep run in the postseason.
   565. DA Baracus Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4286064)
That's what I assume will be the case too.


Beating the Cowboys next week probably will, even though the Cowboys aren't any good.
   566. bobm Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4286066)
Allen Barra on rating QBs:

Is there such a thing as the ultimate passer rating stat? No, but there is one that works better than any other. Years ago, working on an article for my high school paper, I wrote to the NFL's leading stats expert, Bud Goode. My question was simple: What do you think are the most important stats for a quarterback to be rated by? His answer was equally simple: "Yards per pass attempt, and closely behind that one, interception percentage." A short time later, in a story for Sports Illustrated Goode wrote, "I want this on my headstone: Here lies Bud Goode. He told the world about yards per pass attempt." (Goode died in 2010; to my knowledge, his request was not honored.)

Early in 1993, working with George Ignatin, I embarked on a project to determine how good a tool yards/pass attempt really was. We calculated every pro football game played from 1958-1992. What stats correlated the best with winning? Goode was vindicated: It was yards/pass attempt, as in gross yards gained passing divided by the number of attempts.

The second most-important stat was interception percentage. The challenge was how to combine them into an easily accessible formula available to any fan.

This was finally accomplished by figuring the value, in terms of yards, of an interception. We determined this by adding all the yards gained in every possession a football team had over the course of a season as well as the average number of yards gained on punts. We also figured in the average number of yards that interceptions were returned for.

After weeks of painstaking work—painstaking for the math-deprived like me, at least—we determined that an interception was worth 49.38 yards, which rounded off nicely to 50. We called the result Adjusted Yards/Pass or AYP.

I'll show you how to figure it, starting with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, by anyone's standards surely one of the best passers in the NFL this decade. So far this year, Rodgers has passed for 1,979 yards in 262 attempts. He has been picked off four times, so multiplying that by 50, we get 200; subtracting that from his yards passing, we get 1,779 yards. We then divide that by the number of attempts, 262, and get an AYP of 6.79.

But Rodgers's AYP isn't the most impressive in the league. So far that honor goes to the Washington Redskin's sensational rookie Robert Griffin III who, in seven games, has gained 1601 yards in 189 attempts for a sensational 8.47 yards/attempt. And he has done it while throwing just three interceptions. So, subtracting 150 yards from RG3's gross yards passing, we get 1451 yards, which divided by 189 is an impressive 7.67 YPA.

Why are the Redskins only 3-4? Because their defense has allowed 200 points, the highest of any team in their conference and 30th out of 32 teams in the entire league. They have also allowed 8.0 yards per attempt this year, 27th in the league.

(By the way, No.'s 2 and 3 in AYP are the Mannings, Peyton at 7.08 and Eli, 7.02.),


http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2012/10/finally-an-effective-way-to-rank-nfl-quarterbacks/264154/



   567. thok Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4286068)
I wouldn't be shocked only two of Atlanta's opponents end up with winning records (Giants and Denver). Beating the Giants would be worth a lot of credit, but really they just have a weak schedule and need to win some playoff games.
   568. DA Baracus Posted: October 28, 2012 at 03:47 PM (#4286069)
Finally an effective way? People have been using AY/A for years.
   569. hokieneer Posted: October 28, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4286100)
No eagles suck. FO which has historically loved Reid's teams, had the eagles ranked 20 in dvoa coming into today.
   570. steagles Posted: October 28, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4286111)
No eagles suck. FO which has historically loved Reid's teams, had the eagles ranked 20 in dvoa coming into today.
the special teams have been horrible -- both the return teams and the coverage teams -- the offense has turned the ball over at a horrendous rate, and while the defense has been decent (prior to today, anyway), the thing they share in common with both the offense and the special teams is a complete lack of big plays. they don't get sacks, they don't get interceptions, they don't force funmbles.

this is truly a terrible team to have to watch play every week.


and to pile awful on top of awful, because lurie has mandated that reid make the playoffs this year, he has no incentive to put foles in the game to at least see if there's anything there going into next offseason. they're going to have to draft a QB anyway, but it'd be nice to know whether it's necessary to trade up into the top 5 to get the best one in the draft, or whether they can just pluck one in the 3rd or 4th round as a project.
   571. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: October 28, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4286117)
So, is Tony Romo just a terrible, terrible QB?
   572. Tripon Posted: October 28, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4286121)
RGIII didn't have a good game, but it was mostly because his receivers suck dog ####. If they had a decent receiver corp, they're going to the playoffs with a chance to win the division.
   573. steagles Posted: October 28, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4286134)
oh, and ray didinger brought up something in the postgame:

there are no career eagles left on the team. mcnabb is gone, westbrook is gone, dawkins is gone, akers is gone, thomas (and runyan) are gone, trotter is gone. those are guys who were drafted by the eagles, who became starters with the eagles, and who were leaders during the team's run in the early/mid aughts.

but now? vick is a mercenary. babin is a mercenary. ryans is a mercenary. nnamdi is a mercenary. and while those are some of the better players on the team, they are also guys who have no connection to the organization.

what that comes down to is a failure on draft day. because the eagles have missed on so many early round picks for so many years, there's no core of homegrown veterans to keep the team grounded and on the same page. 2010 and 2011 were complete ############. at least in 08 and 09 you came up with maclin, mccoy and jackson, but 2010 and 11? all you have are two awful safeties (coleman and allen), a pair of decent players who are 5th on the depth chart (brandon graham and riley cooper), and a kicker. and then going back to 07, 06, and 05, you're looking at kevin kolb, victor abiamiri, stewart bradley, broderick bunkley, winston justice, chris gocong, mike patterson, reggie brown, matt mccoy, and ryan moats. that's 10 guys drafted in the first 3 rounds, 6, 7, and 8 years ago, and of the 10 names, none are impact players and none are currently on the roster.

that's 5 of the last 8 drafts which are Ds *at best*, and then two others which really aren't that great, either.

i won't say that you can't win that way, because i was expecting this team to win that way this year, but they would really have a much easier task if they hadn't busted in so many drafts.
   574. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 28, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4286149)
ted thompson made a poor decision in letting cullen jenkins go but cullen has to be wondering what in the h8ll he has gotten himself into

   575. Tripon Posted: October 28, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4286155)
Steagles, you said in your beginning paragraph that there are no career Eagles left, and then mention Maclin, McCoy and Jackson. Those three are a good base for your offense.
   576. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: October 28, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4286158)
RGIII didn't have a good game, but it was mostly because his receivers suck dog ####. If they had a decent receiver corp, they're going to the playoffs with a chance to win the division.


Eh, not without some kind of pass defense we're not. It's going to take a few more years- the Shanahan's have drafted pretty well, but the team was such an unbelievable shambles before they got there they were really starting with basically nothing. Also we still have the $18 million cap penalty next year.
   577. steagles Posted: October 28, 2012 at 05:54 PM (#4286169)
Steagles, you said in your beginning paragraph that there are no career Eagles left, and then mention Maclin, McCoy and Jackson. Those three are a good base for your offense.
jackson is in his 5th year, and maclin and mccoy are each in their 4th. (oh, and they're all also really, really young, as in, they're all younger than last year's first round pick) when the eagles made the superbowl in '04, brian dawkins and hollis thomas were in their 8th year, chad lewis was in his 7th, tra thomas, jeremiah trotter, ike reese, and david akers were in their 6th, and mcnabb was in his 5th.

that was a much more veteran core of homegrown leaders, and unlike jackson, maclin, and mccoy (and the two longest tenured eagles trent cole and todd herremens) they were also the leaders of the team. and that core was also much more nasty, and much more physical than this one.


and more importantly, when that team brought veteran free agents in (hugh douglas, jon runyan, terrell owens, jevon kearse), they weren't expected to gel into something new; they were expected to assimilate into what was already here. but right now, there is nothing here. everyone is playing at a different beat, because the entire team lacks a metronome to keep everyone together.


if you just look at the positions of the players in the first two paragraphs:
maclin and jackson are WRs, mccoy is a RB, herremens is a OL, and cole is a DE
but with the 04 team, mcnabb was the QB, thomas was the LT, trotter was the MLB, dawkins was the FS. those are great players, and great leaders, but if you look at who's at those leadership positions for the eagles right now, you have vick at QB, dunlap at LT, ryans at MLB, and allen at FS. those are mediocre players, none of them have been with the eagles long enough to really set the expectations for the team as a whole.


admittedly this is a kind of psychobabble that would not at all be an issue if the team is playing well, but if you're looking for reasons why the team is underperforming, it's seems like a really good place to start.
   578. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4286178)
steagles

you are smarter than this stuff. philadelphia stinks because their offense and special teams stink

this offense has an awful line and a wildly overrated quarterback
   579. BDC Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:08 PM (#4286180)
So, is Tony Romo just a terrible, terrible QB?

No, he has just been afflicted with a unique case of blue/white colorblindness. From week to week this may manifest itself as green/blue or red/white, but the main symptom is an inability to distinguish Cowboy receivers from defenders.

As to RG3, hadn't he completed 70% of his passes coming in? His receivers had a terrible day dropping the ball in the rain (and he didn't make it better on one play as a receiver himself, committing interference), but they'd been doing something right earlier this year. I think BourbonSamurai has the basic point: the Redskins need to concentrate now on building their defense, which makes the Cowboys' unit look like the Seven Blocks of Granite.
   580. madvillain Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:12 PM (#4286182)
Seattle might be the best 4-4 team in the league and Detroit might be the best 3-4 team. Both have got to be absolutely kicking themselves right now. Detroit is two or three plays away from 5-2 and Seattle is a few plays away from 5-3.

Best news for Detroit is that 2011 Stafford showed up and picked apart a very good Seahawks defense. Bad news is they are in a loaded division and will have to probably have to go 6-3 down the stretch even to have a shot at the wildcard, the NFC is that tough this year.

Alot of people thought Detroit would fall back to 9-7 and miss the playoffs in a loaded division, those predictions are looking dead on. They are still 1-2 players on both sides of the ball away from moving out of the middle of the pack (they are there in record and DVOA) and towards the front. Their recent drafts have been mediocre at best at building the sort of depth necessary for that to happen.

___________

Also, Sanchez is Joey Harringon 2.0 Mediocre arm strength without the elite accuracy or pocket awareness to overcome it. Lack of playmakers around him as well. He'll be a backup QB the rest of his career after 2012.
   581. JJ1986 Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4286183)
Seattle is a few plays away from 5-3.


And one play away from 3-5.
   582. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:14 PM (#4286185)
mad

the lack of depth in detroit is evident on special teams which might be the worst in the league
   583. madvillain Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4286188)
And one play away from 3-5.


No doubt, every team other than the bottom feeders probably can point to 2-3 games during the season that they "should have won". It's what makes the NFL so fun and occasionally infuriating when it's the refs that influence those "1 or 2 plays".

________

the lack of depth in detroit is evident on special teams which might be the worst in the league


yea they suck, I cannot stand watching Logan return kicks and punts. He must have pictures of Schwartz with a dead girl or a live boy because he has cost them plenty this year with his crap returns and constant fumbles. Kickoff and punt cover teams suck as well.
   584. Tripon Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4286198)
As to RG3, hadn't he completed 70% of his passes coming in? His receivers had a terrible day dropping the ball in the rain (and he didn't make it better on one play as a receiver himself, committing interference), but they'd been doing something right earlier this year. I think BourbonSamurai has the basic point: the Redskins need to concentrate now on building their defense, which makes the Cowboys' unit look like the Seven Blocks of Granite.


That was a ridiculously bad call by the refs. Calling offensive PI on RGIII and then let him get destroyed by the defense a second later and not call it was disgusting. If it was made by a replacement ref, FOX, CBS, and ESPN would have already played it 1000 times by the halftime of the afternoon games.
   585. Yardape Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:44 PM (#4286203)
I think Fox is just showing a replay of the Chargers-Broncos game instead of Cowboys-Giants.
   586. Tripon Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4286205)

yea they suck, I cannot stand watching Logan return kicks and punts. He must have pictures of Schwartz with a dead girl or a live boy because he has cost them plenty this year with his crap returns and constant fumbles. Kickoff and punt cover teams suck as well.


I know the NFL doesn't want to pay more players, but it probably makes sense for rosters to expand to 60 per team, so teams can roughly split their rosters 20 offense, 20 defense, and 20 special teams. The NFL is the only pro sport that is massively under rostered compared to other pro sports that have a minor league/collegiate comparison. The NFL could probably go to 85 roster spots and still be insanely profitable. Or maybe make a true minor league system for the NFL with the potential roster spots.

I think it is clear though that they have to do more than what they're doing in terms of roster management.
   587. JJ1986 Posted: October 28, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4286206)
The teams each have 8 more guys who they're paying anyway so it would be incredibly easy to expand to 60.
   588. DA Baracus Posted: October 28, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4286214)
Players on the practice squad make substantially less than active roster players. But yeah, the NFL can afford expanded rosters.
   589. McCoy Posted: October 29, 2012 at 12:34 AM (#4287044)
Bears win a game I can't believe they actually and once again they are saved by a QB throwing a ball right to a defender. Also the offensive line once again proves they suck. I have a feeling the Bears are going to get spanked in the playoffs should they get there this year.

The defense did not look good and the offense was downright terrible despite the fact that the Panthers were giving the Bears great field position virtually every time they kicked them the ball.
   590. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: October 29, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4287337)
I pretty much agree with McCoy. It was nice to come away with a win, but the offense just looked awful.
   591. Every Inge Counts Posted: October 29, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4287385)
Alot of people thought Detroit would fall back to 9-7 and miss the playoffs in a loaded division, those predictions are looking dead on. They are still 1-2 players on both sides of the ball away from moving out of the middle of the pack (they are there in record and DVOA) and towards the front. Their recent drafts have been mediocre at best at building the sort of depth necessary for that to happen.



I hate to blame everything on Matt Millen, but this Lions team is still recovering from the Millen era.

They are close to the cap because we are paying high priced draft picks (and having to overpay for free agents to come here) and that did not help in free agency, the Lions had little money to make moves. The draft had been used to draft starters for the most part and the late round guys have been used for special teams but they are also the bottom feeders that get churned out if they don't stick (see guys like Aaron Brown or Derrick Williams or Follett) and replaced.

The crazy thing about the special teams is that they have 2 guys who are considered the best in special teams coverage: Osgood and Wendling. Ashlee Palmer is not that bad either, but we had to use some scrubs because of injuries especially in the secondary where apparently the Lions hate to have healthy players-I swear I have not seen a team so injury-prone at one position like the Lions have been at CB this season and last year.

Special teams has been frustrating, but so has the offense all year. Hopefully the passing attack against Seattle-who has one of the better pass defenses in the NFL-is a sign of change. Stafford's 2 TD passes in the first half were his first 2 TD passes in the first half this season. And Stafford and Calvin Johnson have yet to connect on a TD pass all season.
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