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Tuesday, July 08, 2014

OT: Monthly NBA Thread- July 2014

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: German aggression and Israeli aggression of entirely different types.

andrewberg Posted: July 08, 2014 at 08:17 PM | 1081 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba, off topic

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   901. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:43 PM (#4757119)
Am I alone in thinking the Wolves have a near-zero chance of cracking the playoffs without Love, no matter what package they get in return?

It'd be a long shot, which kinda sounds like what Flip is banking on, but it would have to be the Chicago or the GS package and not the Cleve one, IMO. So in addition to what DK says they'd need internally in [897], they'd need a couple teams ahead of them to stumble/have bad luck/etc. I could imagine a scenario where Houston misses the playoffs - as discussed earlier, injury or decline to Harden/Howard would be harder to overcome this year. Maybe Portland totally overachieved last year and crashes back to earth. Maybe Kerr turns out to be a horrible coach, and it wouldn't be a stretch for Bogut/Curry to miss big chunks of time. Phoenix may have overahieved, and might take a step back if they end up losing Bledsoe. Memphis could all of a sudden be old. Dallas is old, and there's a lot of ways things could go poorly there. OTOH, Davis might get even better and NO could pass them. Cousins could take a huge step forward and the Kings might all of a sudden click and pass them. Denver could get healthy and pass them. If Kobe is healthy and effective, the Lakers could be better than them.

It's why the West is so good - I'm really only confident that 3 teams will for sure make the playoffs (SA, OKC, LAC). Then again, maybe Sterling's lawsuits start to make progress and things with Doc and CP3 go to hell and they won't play there...
   902. Bitter Mouse Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:47 PM (#4757123)
I bet the trade is already 90% done and now they are twiddling around the edges while waiting for the time to pass like sands through the hour glass.

EDIT: With Cleveland.
   903. steagles Posted: July 24, 2014 at 03:57 PM (#4757132)
Speaking of the D-League (what do you mean that people weren't doing that?) - it will have 18 teams next year. 17 have one-to-one relationships with NBA teams, the other (Fort Wayne) is for the other 13 teams in the NBA (Bucks, Bulls, Clippers, Hawks, Hornets, Nets, Nuggets, Pacers, Pelicans, Raptors, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, and Wizards).
That is madness.
more like machiavellian. if the NBA wants every team to run its own Dleague affiliate, making it as hard as possible on the ones who've chosen not to could force those teams to stop dithering and do it.
   904. MikeOberly Posted: July 24, 2014 at 04:01 PM (#4757133)
Reported that Wiggins signed today


Sean Highkin @highkin · 1m
Cavs just announced the signing of Andrew Wiggins. So the 30-day clock begins now.
   905. Manny Coon Posted: July 24, 2014 at 04:09 PM (#4757138)
Speaking of the D-League (what do you mean that people weren't doing that?) - it will have 18 teams next year. 17 have one-to-one relationships with NBA teams, the other (Fort Wayne) is for the other 13 teams in the NBA (Bucks, Bulls, Clippers, Hawks, Hornets, Nets, Nuggets, Pacers, Pelicans, Raptors, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, and Wizards).
That is madness.


It seems really cheap for a team not to have their own D-League team, I'm not surprised most of the better run organizations have their own teams. They give your players a chance to learn the team's systems in game situations and they give a potential pipeline to find really cheap role players.
   906. MikeOberly Posted: July 24, 2014 at 04:10 PM (#4757139)
James Harden:
Dwight and I are the cornerstones of the Rockets. The rest of the guys are role players or pieces that complete our team.


Really get the feeling that it wouldn't exactly be a blast playing on that Rockets team.
   907. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 24, 2014 at 04:13 PM (#4757141)
It seems really cheap for a team not to have their own D-League team, I'm not surprised most of the better run organizations have their own teams. They give your players a chance to learn the team's systems in game situations and they give a potential pipeline to find really cheap role players.

The issue is the idea of of "your players". I believe all teams are still limited to 15 players under contract, as opposed to baseball teams with a couple hundred, and it wasn't until this year that a team was even allowed to sign a player to a contract and then put him on a D-League team. . The Rockets can try out wacky strategies with the RGVVs, but the actual players on the RGVVs are not affiliated with the Rockets. Though presumably the Rockets will look there first if they want to give someone a 10-day deal.
   908. Manny Coon Posted: July 24, 2014 at 04:24 PM (#4757150)
The Rockets can try out wacky strategies with the RGVVs, but the actual players on the RGVVs are not affiliated with the Rockets.


The Rockets have had several of their own players play there: Beverly, Canaan, Marcus Morris, Ish Smith.
   909. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 24, 2014 at 05:17 PM (#4757184)
Speaking of the D-League (what do you mean that people weren't doing that?) - it will have 18 teams next year. 17 have one-to-one relationships with NBA teams, the other (Fort Wayne) is for the other 13 teams in the NBA (Bucks, Bulls, Clippers, Hawks, Hornets, Nets, Nuggets, Pacers, Pelicans, Raptors, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, and Wizards).
That is madness.


The Bulls have only sent one player there ever, I think, Marquis Teague, and almost immediately had to recall him due to an injury. He might have gone back, I'm not sure. He probably sucked too much for the D-League too.

Bulls are also cheap, so they'll never do it unless they have to.
   910. RollingWave Posted: July 24, 2014 at 08:54 PM (#4757269)
Both Miami and Memphis picks are deeply protected. the detail is


Memphis' 1st round pick to Cleveland protected for selections 1-5 and 15-30 in 2015, 1-5 and 15-30 in 2016, 1-5 in 2017 or 1-5 in 2018 or unprotected in 2019 [Cleveland-Memphis, 1/22/2013]


Miami's 1st round pick to Cleveland protected for selections 1-10 in 2015 or 1-10 in 2016 or unprotected in 2017 [Cleveland-Miami, 7/9/2010]


There's very very little chance Miami's pick doesn't convey this year, they'll pretty surely still make the playoff in the east. meanwhile, Memphis is probably 50/50 in the western conference, if they make the playoffs then this gets pushed back untlll 2017, when it's only 1-5 protected, meaning the Wolfs have a chance at anything between 6-30, I have some doubts if a team like Memphis can sustain it's current excellence for that long, and also the West in general is simply too brutal.

Well either way, the Memphis pick look like a much MUCH higher probability of turning into a lotto pick than the Miami one.


For Bennett's trade stock and the Love trade etc : the general issue folks miss is that Love is almost certainly gone after this year for the Wolfs, so there is a real time limit issue here, this is not like the case of James Harden where OKC could extend for sure. It's most comparable with the Dwight Howard situation. which essentially turned out to be.

Affalo, Vucevic, Harkless, Harrington , 1 fist (that turned into Alfried Peyton) and 2 2nds


Afflalo was a nice young piece coming in, but nothing else was that good at that time, The Nuggets pick may have been a non-lotto pick since George Karl was still the coach, Harkless was just picked with the 15th pick, and Vucevic coming off a half decent rookie campaign as the 16th pick in what turned out to be a really weird draft (most of the lotto guys busted or at least were underwhelming while a lot of the guys after the lotto turned out pretty good.)

The Memphis first and the first from Denver is probably a wash , Afflalo's value then is not the same as Wiggins now, and Vucevic / Harkless had decent but not out of this world value, so unless you think Bennett as no value, then something in the range of Wiggins / Bennnett / Waiters / 1st should be at the least comparable with that haul, and probably higher in some sense.

Thats probably the high end too in the Carmelo trade the Nuggets got less (perceived value ) though almost all the guys they got panned out and because NY bombed last year the trade overall turned out good, but the value at the time looked meh at best.

   911. rr Posted: July 24, 2014 at 11:15 PM (#4757340)
"That's a pretty ridiculous statement if he meant that," Parsons said. "That's part of the reason I wanted to go to Dallas, because I'm ready for that next step. I'm ready for a bigger role, and I'm ready for more leadership."




link
   912. RollingWave Posted: July 25, 2014 at 12:15 AM (#4757363)
Well I think Parsons getting too full of himself as well but really the whole thing is going down quite badly in Houston, they totally can not afford a step back season next year or the new Dwightmare will probably arrive and this time he won't be painted as the bad guy.

There is a not insignificant chance Dallas finish ahead of Houston next year, if that happens it'll be baddddd.
   913. smileyy Posted: July 25, 2014 at 12:16 AM (#4757364)
From the comments on the page RR linked to:


I'd like to see this back and forth continue, but it's not like Harden to get defensive
   914. MikeOberly Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:20 AM (#4757378)
Speaking of podcasts, Zach Lowe talks to Lee Jenkins of SI on the just released Grantland Sports pod. Lots of talk of Lebron/ Love/ Cleveland/ Wiggins etc.

Always a good listen, too bad Zach only does about one a month.
   915. MikeOberly Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:53 AM (#4757408)
My generally connected guy (although not a Cavs specific guy) says he's told that the Cavs won't include Wiggins in a Love deal. I honestly have no idea what to believe on this one.

If I had to wager, Love to Cavs, whatever it takes, but it's weird.
   916. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 25, 2014 at 09:27 AM (#4757452)
If the Cavs won't include Wiggins, then the Bulls offer is clearly significantly better. I'd have to assume that means it's Waiters and/or Thompson instead and that's a *HUGE* dropoff. If the Cavs somehow got Love without giving up Wiggins, it'd be some Pau to LAL bullshit all over again*. The Bulls offer is also clearly better than the Warriors offer, maybe even better if Klay was in the offer, and still maybe even better if Mirotic isn't included (which his inclusion has been unclear).

If the Warriors aren't offering Klay and the Cavs aren't offering Wiggins, there's no reason other teams shouldn't trying hard to get in this.

*I'm KIDDING, robin.
   917. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 25, 2014 at 09:29 AM (#4757454)
   918. AROM Posted: July 25, 2014 at 09:46 AM (#4757459)
If the Cavs somehow got Love without giving up Wiggins, it'd be some Pau to LAL bullshit all over again*.


Also comparable to another title-building trade that same year, that also involved Minnesota and a superstar named Kevin.
   919. RollingWave Posted: July 25, 2014 at 12:45 PM (#4757610)
Also comparable to another title-building trade that same year, that also involved Minnesota and a superstar named Kevin.


Ouch.

   920. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:18 PM (#4757630)
If we need to talk about Kevin (Pelton), he's chatting right now.
Maybe I'd seen it here or elsewhere and forgotten it already, but I like his Wiggins = Luol Deng comp. (I expect a little more, due to Wiggins athleticism, but as a template.)
   921. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:32 PM (#4757638)
And I'd trade future Luol Deng and future Derrick Williams/Mike Sweeney hybrid* for Kevin Love in a nanosecond.

*Who is a good comp for Bennett now?
   922. MikeOberly Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:43 PM (#4757643)
*Who is a good comp for Bennett now?


I'm sure this is a terrible comp, but a shorter, heavier Wayman Tisdale who thinks he's a 3 point specialist and who chucks up bad shots? Oh, and who may not even be an NBA player? I'm not high on Bennett at all.
   923. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 25, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4757644)
Aaron (Seattle)

What were your thoughts on Gobert in Vegas? Can he be a quality center?
Kevin Pelton (1:38 PM)

He was phenomenal to watch. Playing against stronger players is going to be more of a challenge, but he's more than earned regular playing time next season.
   924. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 25, 2014 at 02:05 PM (#4757656)
Thanks for the Dirk link, Moses - that was amusing.

I dig Gobert and I didn't even get to watch any summer league this year. Love, love watching that guy.

Bennett comp: ugh, man. Pass. Let's just hope he can get back some of what he did at UNLV - he really was solid there.
   925. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 25, 2014 at 02:17 PM (#4757666)
He has been losing weight since the beginning of last season, right? (having gained weight during his injury) The comp to Mike Sweetney might be a trifle unfair.
   926. andrewberg Posted: July 25, 2014 at 02:21 PM (#4757669)
When Bennett was playing well at UNLV, he reminded me a little of Carl Landry, a little of Paul Millsap.
   927. MikeOberly Posted: July 25, 2014 at 03:39 PM (#4757720)
Lakers supposedly offering their job to Byron Scott...doubt that would end well.
   928. steagles Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:20 PM (#4757736)
derrick williams and michael beasley seem like solid comps for bennett. talented guys, but just not strong/big/skilled enough to really excel at PF. carmelo is in that same mold, and for all the criticism he takes, i do wonder what exactly he did right that those other guys haven't.


   929. andrewberg Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:27 PM (#4757738)
derrick williams and michael beasley seem like solid comps for bennett. talented guys, but just not strong/big/skilled enough to really excel at PF. carmelo is in that same mold, and for all the criticism he takes, i do wonder what exactly he did right that those other guys haven't.


Melo can shoot.
   930. steagles Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:29 PM (#4757740)
Aaron (Seattle)

What were your thoughts on Gobert in Vegas? Can he be a quality center?
Kevin Pelton (1:38 PM)

He was phenomenal to watch. Playing against stronger players is going to be more of a challenge, but he's more than earned regular playing time next season.
it would be a huge mistake for gobert to put on weight. he would benefit from being stronger, yeah, but aside from talent, the real limiting factor with guys as big as him is the ability to run up and down the floor for more than a handful of minutes at a time.* if he can't do that or control his fouls, his ceiling is a 2nd string center playing 15 minutes per game. basically aaron gray or hamed haddadi.

also, you get stronger naturally as you get older, so if he focuses on maximizing his mobility now, the strength will come later even without dedicated training.


*well, that and foot/ankle/knee/hip/back injuries.
   931. steagles Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:33 PM (#4757742)
Melo can shoot.
derrick williams is the NCAA's record holder for 3P% in a season at 57%.
beasley is a career 35% shooter from beyond the arc in the NBA.

both of those guys can hit shots. even bennett hit 38% of his 3s at UNLV.

   932. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:49 PM (#4757753)
Only eight games of data, but Gobert did a solid job of avoiding fouls in the minors (where people are less likely to try to take right at him).

Anyway, adding "some" bulk would be a good idea for him, as Gobert is rail thin at present. Comping his build to lugs like the chunky Aaron Gray and a glacier footed guy like Haddadi is a non-sequitor.
   933. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 25, 2014 at 04:51 PM (#4757754)
I've written about Beasley/Carmelo at length - obviously, Beasley got worse, Carmelo got better. Williams, I can see that as well, but there's obvious quality differences. Also, don't read too much into DW's 3pt% - that was on very few attempts. (Bear that in mind Kyle Anderson fans.)
   934. Norcan Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:04 PM (#4757761)
derrick williams and michael beasley seem like solid comps for bennett. talented guys, but just not strong/big/skilled enough to really excel at PF. carmelo is in that same mold, and for all the criticism he takes, i do wonder what exactly he did right that those other guys haven't.


How is Carmelo in the same mold as Derrick Williams? There is an enormous difference between their abiliy to create off the dribble and that difference enables Carmelo to be a true SF who also has the size to be a small ball PF while relegating Williams to tweener status. Williams has been doomed because he's a stretch four who stretches the defense to the tune of a 29.6 career percentage from 3. Without a consistent deep stroke, he really offers nothing. He can't take bigger guys off the dribble, he can't take smaller guys in the post and he's not much of a rebounder, defender or passer. He's kind of a Brandon Bass if Bass suddenly lost his mind and decided to launch threes, right now to losing all his explosiveness if he jumps off one foot rather than two.

I think Beasley can check off most of the same offensive boxes as Carmelo except for passing. He has the game of a small forward but unlike Carmelo, he's never been willing to take and create contact around the rim to get to the line. He's also not as consistent a mid-range shooter.


I thought Bennett reminded me some of Rodney Rogers in that they have similar size and I remember Rodgers launching threes but I didn't realize Rogers was a very fine passer, something Bennett is not at this point.
   935. Norcan Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:15 PM (#4757769)
Only eight games of data, but Gobert did a solid job of avoiding fouls in the minors (where people are less likely to try to take right at him).

Anyway, adding "some" bulk would be a good idea for him, as Gobert is rail thin at present. Comping his build to lugs like the chunky Aaron Gray and a glacier footed guy like Haddadi is a non-sequitor.


Gobert looked stronger in Summer League. I don't think he was ever rail thin either. He weighed 238 pounds at the combine. The rail thin designation should be reserved for guys like John Henson who was 216 at the combine or Alexis Ajinca who was 207 at nearly the same height and length as Gobert. It was a good sign that Gobert even got up to 238 pounds because it seems like the skinny guys who can't put on weight like Chris Johnson, Jajuan Johnson, John Henson and so on never even get up that high.
   936. Manny Coon Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:19 PM (#4757771)
How about Jared Dudley or Ryan Gomes as comps for Bennett, both were very good undersized college PFs who had some weight issues but converted mostly to SF. Although both of those guys were 4 year college players who came into the league fairly polished and skilled, while Bennett came out young.

Most of the comps for Bennett seem to be guys that stayed in school longer and were never really considered top pick material.

Different body type, but Marvin Williams might be similar, including being drafted too high.
   937. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:26 PM (#4757780)
Agreed 935. I thought he looked noticeably stronger this summer though still lean and insanely mobile for his size. Pelton is right ha the will still have problems with stronger guys, but theoretically Favors, Booker, and Kanter should be guarding them in the post instead of Gobert. I'm more concerned about his offense. If he can set strong picks and pass the ball well (which Snyder claims he can) I think the offense can handle his Deandre Jordan-esque range. His summer league performance makes me hopeful at least.
   938. andrewberg Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:30 PM (#4757785)
Melo shot 47% from 10-15 ft and 43% from 16-23 ft last year.

Beasley- 47% (33-40 each of the last 4 years) and 34%
Williams- 37% and 34%

Needless to say, Melo had a much higher volume.
   939. Manny Coon Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:37 PM (#4757792)
Also comparable to another title-building trade that same year, that also involved Minnesota and a superstar named Kevin.


Minnesota still could have salvaged that trade if they had taken Curry over Flynn. Gerald Green is a finally a pretty good player too and Al Jefferson started at center for one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.
   940. rr Posted: July 25, 2014 at 05:43 PM (#4757798)
and Al Jefferson started at center for one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.


Marc Gasol is doing OK, too.
   941. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: July 25, 2014 at 06:52 PM (#4757832)
The other thing to keep in mind is that Carmelo is IMO one of the handful of quickest players in the NBA. He is by no means fast, he will not beat anyone down the court, but in a halfcourt situation from the standstill, he has a deadly first step. He also a really quick second jump (partially because he can't really jump) and that allows him to be a strong offensive rebounder which is crucial considering he's not that efficient finishing at the rim.
   942. kpelton Posted: July 25, 2014 at 10:09 PM (#4757912)
I don't know that I totally buy the importance of this, but Layne Vashro's list of A/TO rate for combo forwards in college is probably worth noting in the context of the Melo/Williams/Beasley comparisons:
https://twitter.com/VJL_bball/status/474635360971284481/photo/1

Rich man's Brandon Bass was always my comp for Bennett in college.
   943. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 26, 2014 at 01:25 AM (#4757951)
Off the top of my head, I'd guess that most turnovers for combo forwards don't come when trying to pass but rather when trying to dribble (so A/TO may not measure, well, passing). Actually, do we know in general what percentage of turnovers happen when trying to pass (vs. while dribbling/shooting vs. offensive foul)?
   944. RollingWave Posted: July 26, 2014 at 02:14 AM (#4757955)
82 games have something like that in their hands rating
   945. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 26, 2014 at 10:15 PM (#4758245)
How about Jared Dudley or Ryan Gomes as comps for Bennett, both were very good undersized college PFs who had some weight issues but converted mostly to SF. Although both of those guys were 4 year college players who came into the league fairly polished and skilled, while Bennett came out young.


Craig Smith, Corliss Williamson and (going back) Clarence Weatherspoon, too. I liked Bennett at UNLV, too, and hope he can eventually carve out a 10+ year career and have a few 15 ppg/8 rpg seasons.
   946. RollingWave Posted: July 26, 2014 at 11:29 PM (#4758270)
Huh, Lakers sign Scott to *4* / 17??!?!?! that's A LOT to pay for a guy who's likely there to just please Kobe for 2 years and a guy who wasn't getting any interest elsewhere.

Scott's agent should get an award or something.
   947. smileyy Posted: July 26, 2014 at 11:53 PM (#4758276)
I think Scott's agent knew that:

1. The Lakers had no other real choices for the job.
2. The Lakers have a lot of money
   948. rr Posted: July 27, 2014 at 05:14 AM (#4758307)
946, 947:

It is basically what Brown and D'Antoni got, and of course salary expectations for coaches seem to be shifting. The 4th year is a team option. I do not think that Scott is a particularly good hire, (Although I am not bummed out about it, like I was about Mike Brown. I backed the MDA hire, but I didn't know then that Howard had already made it known he didn't like MDA and really wanted Phil.) in that I would have preferred that they go with a new guy with no NBA HC exp, and let him try to show what he could do. But given what the Lakers have paid for their two post-Phil coaches and where coaches's salaries are right now based on recent hires around the league, there is nothing outlandish about Scott's deal.

The reaction in 946 reflects something going on in the Lakers' blogosphere. As you would expect, the people who like the hire seem to be mostly older old-school fans (45 and up) who were around for Showtime, and low-information fans who have seen Scott on the studio show for TWC, know he's local, hate D'Antoni, know that Scott played for the Showtime teams etc. But the Lakers' wing of the Internet Geekocracy--the people mostly in their 20s and 30s who run the big saberish team sites and are not old enough to really remember Showtime, and the people who get their opinions largely from those siterunners--generally can't stand Scott and have been down on him since he put his hat in the ring for the gig. While they knew it was coming, they are still taking shots at Scott. So, assuming that the Lakers are really bad again, which is likely, Scott will be getting a lot of crap on the net, just like MDA did, only it will be coming from a smaller group of people with larger megaphones.

Fan culture stuff aside, I will be interested to see:

1. If Scott can leverage his supposedly good relationship with Bryant into getting Bryant to go along with playing 28-30 MPG and putting some decent effort into his defense. Under D'Antoni, of course, Kobe played massive minutes and dogged it on D. Given where the Lakers were then, I don't entirely blame MDA for those things. They are in a very different place now.
2. How Scott handles Carlos Boozer, and how much run Scott gives Randle, Davis, and Kelly. There is no doubt in my mind that the publicly stated goal of the Lakers' season will be "make the playoffs." That is unrealistic, but there is really nothing else they can say. But even if the org. is sincerely going for the 8th seed, and I think it will be, starting Boozer and playing him 32-34 MPG is not really the best way to do that. But my take on Scott is that that is exactly what he will do to start the season. I hope I am wrong.
   949. RollingWave Posted: July 27, 2014 at 08:30 AM (#4758327)
[945] Weatherspoon or Millsap would probably be Bennett's 99 percentile outcome. Those guys can really ball. I give Bennett a pass due to his known bizarre health situation last year, but given the relative strength of that draft ANYONE becoming those great 3rd option on title caliber teams or star on bad team type would be considered a huge success.

[948] I guess looking on the bright side, with these coaches you really never know, there's only 4 guys that have won title in the league right now and 2 of them have multiple rings, we'll see how Spolstra do now that Lebron's out but I suspect he'll still be good unlike Mike Brown.

Other than those 4 guys (and really you can put some question marks on Rivers and Spolstra too) the rest are a crap shoot more or less, and many of them tend to get different results in different places, I mean, if you cover up their names and just look at the overall body of work, the Difference with Rivers and Scott is essentially that Doc got over the top once in 2 try where as Scott lost both times, but given the relative teams and opponent it seems obvious that Rivers had a better chance to begin with. Some times these retreads work alright, Rivers was one, and Carlie had 2 stop before winning (granted, his teams were almost never bad.) Stotts this year was fine, as was guys like Casey and Wittman, sometimes those Coaches improve as well.

Scott seem to function much better with a veteran team, so that should help, given that for some inexplicable reason a lot of folks are making it sound like this Laker team is young... ITS NOT, Nick Young and Jordan Hill are both MUCH older than many folks seem to realize, Jeremy Lin isn't that young by NBA standards either. (granted, those 3 all play like younger players in their styles, what with Hills generally rebound or bust game, Lin's out of control decision making and Nick Young doing Nick Young things.) and Kobe / Nash / Boozer are down right ancient. CJ Henry's younger brother is still kinda young but been around for many years as well. The only guy that's young is essentially Randle and Kelly and Kelly's a 4 year.

I can see some reasons to believe this Lakers team won't be downright awful, as in, if the were in the East I probably think they have a decent chance of making the playoffs, but that also means they might be the 2nd worst team in the West. sheesh.

   950. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: July 27, 2014 at 08:37 AM (#4758328)
given the relative strength of that draft ANYONE becoming those great 3rd option on title caliber teams or star on bad team type would be considered a huge success.

I hate when people (not saying you're doing this) act as though Bennett made sense as a 1st choice last year. Perhaps I'm crazy, but I really think Nerlens Noel has a chance to be EXCEPTIONALLY good on the defensive end. Guarantee a Top-10 defense by himself good and I thought that at the time and it makes no sense to me why anyone (a) doubted him (b) considered even for a second drafting anyone before him last year.
   951. RollingWave Posted: July 27, 2014 at 09:09 AM (#4758332)
Come on, NJ, let's say Noel becomes Dikembe or something, that's still not going to be the #1 player on a title caliber team is it? (though I guess #2 is possible.)
   952. Norcan Posted: July 27, 2014 at 11:18 AM (#4758366)
Guys like Williamson and Craig Smith have similar bodies to Bennett, although a bit squattier but their games were from the free throw line in, sometimes from the middle of the paint in. Bennett's long range shot, despite last season's percentage, makes it ill-fitting comparison. I think if he becomes a proficient three point shooter who is a middling rebounder, maybe he's like a Channing Frye.
   953. GregD Posted: July 27, 2014 at 11:44 AM (#4758379)
the weird thing about Bennett as #1 even in a weak draft is that he looked to my amateur's eyes like meh ceiling/meh floor. I didn't have him pegged as a bust but figured he was what he looked like and didn't show much room to get better.

Noel was probably occasional All-Star celing/total bust floor (because of injury problems and skinniness and general rawness.) I can see being afraid of that as a #1 pick even in a down year. But I can't see passing on him for Bennett. To be fair to the Cavs, if you pass on Noel for any reason, it wasn't that clear to me whom you would take. I liked Oladipo some in college.
   954. rr Posted: July 27, 2014 at 01:54 PM (#4758445)
KingJames LeBron James
23 it is! It's only right I go back. 2·3=6 We still family 6. #HomeTeam #StriveForGreatness
   955. steagles Posted: July 27, 2014 at 02:00 PM (#4758449)
KingJames LeBron James
23 it is! It's only right I go back. 2·3=6 We still family 6. #HomeTeam #StriveForGreatness
does anyone else remember that lebron only changed his number in the first place because he wanted the NBA to retire 23 across the league, as if michael jordan was basketball's jackie robinson.

   956. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: July 27, 2014 at 02:04 PM (#4758454)
Pat Riley's the one who called for that, with the Archduke along for the ride. And Gretzky is the precedent, as the alleged greatest player of his sport, not Robinson.
   957. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 27, 2014 at 02:11 PM (#4758456)
Please, Wayne Gretzky was not the only legendary player to wear #99.
   958. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 27, 2014 at 04:14 PM (#4758519)
Noel was probably occasional All-Star celing/total bust floor (because of injury problems and skinniness and general rawness.) I can see being afraid of that as a #1 pick even in a down year. But I can't see passing on him for Bennett. To be fair to the Cavs, if you pass on Noel for any reason, it wasn't that clear to me whom you would take. I liked Oladipo some in college.
Is there anyone from that 2013 draft that projects to be a multi-time all-star? Going back and re-reading the post-draft analysis, and it's almost hysterical the comps that were being thrown around. Looking at the list of draftees that year, for the most part it looks like a compilation of guys who, five years from now, won't be in the league.

As for Noel, I don't think there's any chance he's Mutumbo — he's gotta gain 40 pounds of mostly muscle just to get into that conversation, and it's hard for me to trust a rim protector when the little guys attacking the rim are going to be every bit as strong and heavy as he is. Along with his lack of offensive skills, he's more likely to be a fringe contributor than a starter for a good NBA team.
   959. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: July 27, 2014 at 04:42 PM (#4758533)
Marcus Camby and Kevin Garnett are both (to my eyes) built similarly to Noel and that didn't stop them from being defensive forces. I think his weight issue is overblown.
   960. smileyy Posted: July 27, 2014 at 05:07 PM (#4758562)
Did LeBron really use the multiplication dot in his tweet?
   961. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 27, 2014 at 05:10 PM (#4758568)

Did LeBron really use the multiplication dot in his tweet?


He did.
   962. Norcan Posted: July 27, 2014 at 06:48 PM (#4758665)
Marcus Camby and Kevin Garnett are both (to my eyes) built similarly to Noel and that didn't stop them from being defensive forces. I think his weight issue is overblown.


Yeah, he seems fine to me too. There were gasps when he weighed in under 210 at the combine but he had lost weight as part of his rehab from ACL surgery. Calipari said Noel weighed in the high 220s for most of his freshman season, or more than Anthony Davis. He's going to have to get stronger to be a better post defender but as far as defending picks, switching out onto smaller players and defending the rim, he should be an immediate difference maker.

It would've been interesting if New Orleans had kept him and intended to play them together with Davis at SF and Noel at PF. It's feasible because Davis can guard SFs. If they still acquired Asik, they've could've gone with the Triple Towers configuration.
   963. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 27, 2014 at 07:04 PM (#4758685)
Yeah, he seems fine to me too. There were gasps when he weighed in under 210 at the combine but he had lost weight as part of his rehab from ACL surgery. Calipari said Noel weighed in the high 220s for most of his freshman season, or more than Anthony Davis. He's going to have to get stronger to be a better post defender but as far as defending picks, switching out onto smaller players and defending the rim, he should be an immediate difference maker.
If he shows up at 225, then I'll reconsider, but even when he was healthy, he disappeared when he turned sideways. I wanna see that extra bulk first.
   964. RollingWave Posted: July 27, 2014 at 08:22 PM (#4758739)
It would've been interesting if New Orleans had kept him and intended to play them together with Davis at SF and Noel at PF. It's feasible because Davis can guard SFs. If they still acquired Asik, they've could've gone with the Triple Towers configuration.


That would be fun. the spacing would also be hilariously horrible on offense.

Is there anyone from that 2013 draft that projects to be a multi-time all-star? Going back and re-reading the post-draft analysis, and it's almost hysterical the comps that were being thrown around. Looking at the list of draftees that year, for the most part it looks like a compilation of guys who, five years from now, won't be in the league.


Giannis maybe have that ceiling. Calling a draft after just one year is usually very suspect, wait wait least 3-4 to have a better picture.

I'm sure there will be a few surprisingly good players out of the 2013 draft who turn out to be solid starters / great bench players way back in the draft. I like Nate Wolters and Glen Rice Jr. quite a bit. There's never been a draft that doesn't have a least a couple of guys like that. (folks don't seem to realize how well Wolters finished at the rim last year, his only real problem so far is that he hasn't been able to hit 3s and that's almost certainly fixable for anyone this side of MKG.)

the 2000 draft is probably the worst in the last 15 year, and even then you had Michael Redd in the 2nd round on top of 3 other guys that managed over ten thousand minutes.
   965. steagles Posted: July 27, 2014 at 11:25 PM (#4758808)
As for Noel, I don't think there's any chance he's Mutumbo — he's gotta gain 40 pounds of mostly muscle just to get into that conversation, and it's hard for me to trust a rim protector when the little guys attacking the rim are going to be every bit as strong and heavy as he is. Along with his lack of offensive skills, he's more likely to be a fringe contributor than a starter for a good NBA team.
he's not mutombo. mutombo was 7'2 with a gigantic wingspan. noel is big and he's long (phrasing), but he's not that.

noel is also not 210 lbs. he was up to about 230 lbs before summer league, but he might struggle to keep his weight up during the season. at least for a while.

as for his defense, he's gonna be really, really good. he blocks a ton of shots, but he's also a beast defending the pick and roll and he gets a lot of steals. he's gonna have a huge impact on that end of the floor.

also, w/r/t his skinniness, i'll refer you to this picture of former defensive player of the year tyson chandler. also, this one, that is totally not a naked madeleine albright.

and talk of noel's offensive limitations are overblown. he's very tall, very long and very explosive. he should be able to get points in transition and off the pick and roll. and if he continues to develop his jump hook, he'll be able to score on anyone within 8 feet of the hoop.

   966. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: July 27, 2014 at 11:46 PM (#4758813)
If you think Noel is remotely the size of Chandler, you're in for a real sad surprise when ol skin and bones shows up to play.
   967. steagles Posted: July 28, 2014 at 12:31 AM (#4758819)
If you think Noel is remotely the size of Chandler, you're in for a real sad surprise when ol skin and bones shows up to play.
i'm not too worried about it. this year is gonna be tanktastic anyway since embiid is injured and dario speedwagon is staying in europe. as long as noel flashes potential from time to time i'll be pretty happy.
   968. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 28, 2014 at 10:13 AM (#4758907)
Oh, BM (902): I agree with you that it's probable that most of a deal has likely already been agreed upon (with CLE) - but not sure enough to bet on it or anything.
   969. tshipman Posted: July 28, 2014 at 11:18 AM (#4758964)
Did LeBron really use the multiplication dot in his tweet?


No. Did whoever tweets for LeBron on his account use it? Yes.
   970. smileyy Posted: July 28, 2014 at 01:45 PM (#4759083)
I think its a bit unfair to judge a 20 year-old's muscular development. I'm pretty sure 20-year-old Wilt looked nothing like 30-year-old Wilt; 20-year-old Garnett looked different than 30-year-old Garnett.
   971. The District Attorney Posted: July 28, 2014 at 01:51 PM (#4759089)
I'm surprised LeBron didn't take #6 just because that would be a jersey no one would already own. I guess he really has decided that fan-friendly PR will indirectly lead to more dollars for him than taking plain old dollars would. BTW, Klosterman expanded on his objection to The Letter 2.0 in a recent Simmons pod.

I can't 100% give up on Bennett yet, but I agree that there is very little hope for him. and that it isn't even second-guessing to say he shouldn't have been taken #1 over Noel. Embiid was also out for the year, with injuries that probably bode even worse for the long-term than Noel's, and still went #3. If there were no Parker/Wiggins (and pretty much no anyone else) in the draft, does anyone let Embiid's health deter them for a moment from picking him #1? Hell, there were more people saying Embiid should have gone 1st with Parker/Wiggins actually available than saying he should have gone lower than 3rd. Even acknowledging that Embiid has more offensive potential than Noel, I think the comparison is more apt than not.

(I did learn from playing with the trade machine, though, that you have to throw in a lot of money when you're basically trying to trade a rookie for a Kevin Love-size contract. So regardless of what you think of Bennett's value as a player, if you want to make a two-team trade based around Wiggins for Love work, Bennett's contract almost has to be in there. Try it yourself... you'll see that unless you want to do a Baseball Mogul-esque 10-for-1 or something, which isn't gonna happen, there are not many options. Perhaps this does suggest that a 3-team with Chicago also involved makes sense.)

It might be true both that Scott is largely being hired for the non-compelling reasons that he played for Showtime and gets along with Kobe, and that he is a good coach. I think he did well with the Nets... sure, they had Jason Kidd and were in a bad conference, but they still had to beat similarly talented teams, for a franchise with a notoriously depressing history and playing environment. I got the impression he is kind of a martinet who can't keep the clubhouse forever (and ain't gonna be coaching all four years of that contract), but can whip guys into shape for a year or two.
   972. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 28, 2014 at 01:59 PM (#4759094)
I feel like it's unfair to ever second-guess someone for not taking an injured player #1 (especially in a world where Bowie over Jordan and, especially, Oden over Durant loom large.) There's just a significant chance that the player will not contribute, and a large chance that the player will come back significantly worse -- especially for the first couple years where you control him cheaply, not to mention missing one of those years outright, which reduces their development curve also. That's just a big value hit.

(I guess Blake Griffin would be the big example on the other side of the ledger.)
   973. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 28, 2014 at 02:16 PM (#4759106)
972/AS - I agree, though I'd've wanted to have taken at Noel at the time, were that I had the buy-in of management and my med staff.
971/DA - Does LeBron get a cut of any of that money?
   974. steagles Posted: July 28, 2014 at 02:18 PM (#4759112)
(I guess Blake Griffin would be the big example on the other side of the ledger.)
griffin was healthy when he was drafted. he only injured his knee during training camp before his rookie year.

Embiid was also out for the year, with injuries that probably bode even worse for the long-term than Noel's, and still went #3.
it's probably not a coincidence that both embiid and noel were drafted by the sixers.

to put it another way, if the draft order was PHI-MIL-CLE instead of CLE-MIL-PHI, i think the odds would be about 50/50 that embiid doesn't get taken in the top 3. PHI would have gone for wiggins, MIL would have gone for parker and then cleveland is a terrible and impatient organization that could have talked themselves into drafting randle or smart. at that point, orlando was already willing to reach for gordon at 4, so i'm not sure that would change. at 5, UTA likes exum and already had depth at center. so then embiid goes to boston at 6, or maybe slips to LA at 7.

assuming no trades, this could have been the top 7:
PHI - wiggins
MIL - parker
CLE - randle
ORL - gordon
UTA - exum
BOS - smart
LAL - embiid
   975. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 28, 2014 at 02:48 PM (#4759148)
Phoenix may have overahieved, and might take a step back if they end up losing Bledsoe.
The Suns aren't losing Bledsoe. Not this year, anyway.

Is there a deadline for Bledsoe to decide he'll either take the Suns' offer ($48MM over 4) or play for the $3.7MM qualifying offer?
   976. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 28, 2014 at 02:59 PM (#4759167)
griffin was healthy when he was drafted. he only injured his knee during training camp before his rookie year.


I know -- what I meant (could have clarified better) is that he ended up missing his first year entirely, and became a star anyway, so he's a data point that suggests that missing your rookie season in the NBA can turn out well.
   977. steagles Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:09 PM (#4759181)
Is there a deadline for Bledsoe to decide he'll either take the Suns' offer ($48MM over 4) or play for the $3.7MM qualifying offer?
okay, so here's something i don't get.

there's no cost to sign another team's RFA. aside from a 3 day cap hold while the RFA's team decides whether to match, it's basically free.

so, in a situation like this, why doesn't a player like bledsoe look for a team to give him a 1 year deal, so that he can make more money in year 1 (10+MM instead of 3.7MM) without sacrificing the ability to be an unrestricted free agent next year.

for a team like the lakers, there's not a ton of upside to it, but at the very least, they get to stick it to a division rival. and they increase the likelihood that bledsoe bolts as a free agent next year. and if they actually get bledsoe, that makes them better this year and increases the likelihood that they can keep him long-term.
   978. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:14 PM (#4759188)
I'm surprised LeBron didn't take #6 just because that would be a jersey no one would already own. I guess he really has decided that fan-friendly PR will indirectly lead to more dollars for him than taking plain old dollars would.


971/DA - Does LeBron get a cut of any of that money?

Yes and no. Every team splits the merchandising money equally, IIRC. Then the players get a cut of that, and that's actually based on seniority I think. So LeBron really doesn't make any more money regardless of what number he picks. The Cavs jerseys have changed since he was there, so his jersey is going to be different this time anyway regardless of number.
   979. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:16 PM (#4759193)
so, in a situation like this, why doesn't a player like bledsoe look for a team to give him a 1 year deal, so that he can make more money in year 1 (10+MM instead of 3.7MM) without sacrificing the ability to be an unrestricted free agent next year.

I think it's a Bird Rights issue. Like his new team wouldn't have full Bird rights on him. I forget the specifics of that, but it could in theory cost him money (if he signed for only $10mil, he's limited in how much his new team can give him a raise on his next contract). And I think there's another reason why he can't just sign a one year max and then go from there.
   980. GregD Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:17 PM (#4759197)
I feel like it's unfair to ever second-guess someone for not taking an injured player #1 (especially in a world where Bowie over Jordan and, especially, Oden over Durant loom large.) There's just a significant chance that the player will not contribute, and a large chance that the player will come back significantly worse -- especially for the first couple years where you control him cheaply, not to mention missing one of those years outright, which reduces their development curve also. That's just a big value hit.
But doesn't the injury type matter? An ACL is not a degenerative back or foot condition. Given that Cleveland had no hope for last year anyway, the impact on the team of him missing the year is zero, and the odds of a normal performance the following year are very high given recovery rates from ACL for professional athletes. If you doubt Noel's work ethic or something, that's a different issue, but no one has said that before or since that I am aware of.

My guess is that they feared they'd lose even more season ticket holders if they drafted a guy who didn't play so took the short-term "gain" and ended up looking foolish...and then got bailed out by LeBron anyway.
   981. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:29 PM (#4759214)
LeBron has a significant business relationship with Nike, and I have to imagine Nike would have preferred if he'd picked a different uniform number. The number of people in Cleveland who would have bought #6 LeBron jerseys but didn't burn their #23 LeBron jersey and don't feel the need to buy a new one is well above zero, I'd think.

Based on that I'm mildly surprised LeBron didn't take a new number.
   982. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:31 PM (#4759218)
Well, the Cavs were trying/hoping/planning on making the playoffs last year. And still thought that during the season by trading for Deng. So that clearly was part of their decision process.
   983. Manny Coon Posted: July 28, 2014 at 03:32 PM (#4759220)
Wasn't the main reason the Cavs skipped on Valanciunas also because he wasn't available right away? That seems to be a real hold up for their organization.
   984. kpelton Posted: July 28, 2014 at 04:48 PM (#4759262)
Last year specifically, the idea was the Cavaliers had to make the playoffs so they could extend Irving and show LeBron he ought to come back as a free agent. Can't predict bball.

Steagles, an offer sheet has to be for at least three years, so even with a player option on year three Bledsoe would be tied to the lower amount for two years (and the Suns would surely just match).
   985. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 28, 2014 at 04:55 PM (#4759266)
Can't predict bball.

Don't tell your employer that.
   986. madvillain Posted: July 28, 2014 at 05:10 PM (#4759275)
Some pretty cool stuff up on the official NBA instagram today. Rose doing his patented two handed tomahawk as easily as ever among the highlights. Pretty pumped to see some of these scrimmages. I believe NBA TV is showing some stuff free this week.
   987. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 28, 2014 at 05:18 PM (#4759279)
Mo Williams to the Wolfs, 1/3.75
   988. andrewberg Posted: July 28, 2014 at 05:19 PM (#4759281)
Mo Williams to the Wolfs, 1/3.75


In trying to figure out how this move could possibly make sense, I have decided that it means the Wolfs already agreed to send Barea out in a Love trade.

Barea and a Cleve pick to Philly, Love to Cleve, Wiggins, Bennett, Young to Wolfs.
   989. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 28, 2014 at 05:48 PM (#4759300)
Judge hands Shelly Sterling an overwhelming victory. Game ovah for Donald.
   990. Fourth True Outcome Posted: July 28, 2014 at 05:55 PM (#4759304)
*phew*
   991. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 28, 2014 at 06:32 PM (#4759329)
Shved has previously played for Blatt. Just noting...

Presumably, DS can appeal...
   992. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 28, 2014 at 06:36 PM (#4759334)
That seems to be unclear:

The ruling in Los Angeles Superior Court included an extraordinary order that essentially renders any appellate court intervention meaningless.


Dan Woike @DanWoikeSports · 1m
To be clear - this isn't over over. Still a writ of appeal - still another lawsuit to try and go around Levanas' decision.
   993. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 28, 2014 at 07:05 PM (#4759347)
Shved has previously played for Blatt. Just noting...


Isn't Shved one of the guys he benched on the Russian team for not listening during a timeout? I guess could be just one of those heat of the moment things but this could be a negative relationship for either or both men.
   994. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 28, 2014 at 07:09 PM (#4759349)
Yup
   995. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 28, 2014 at 08:32 PM (#4759409)
988 - Philly ain't doing that. No return for young?
   996. steagles Posted: July 28, 2014 at 09:05 PM (#4759433)
988 - Philly ain't doing that. No return for young?
eh/

they traded spencer hawes for second round picks at last year's deadline. they traded evan turner for a 2017 2nd round pick at last year's deadline. thad should bring back more in return, but i don't think he's gonna bring back a whole lot more.


basically, if wiggins goes to minnesota and thad goes to minnesota, what's coming back to philly will probably be some combination of barea/martin/brewer and waiters/bennett/thompson.
   997. RollingWave Posted: July 28, 2014 at 09:41 PM (#4759452)
Would be hilarious is Philly gets Wiggins in the trade though, guess it aint happening but what if they give their first? their first this year is SUPER valuable.

Or strait up Noel for Wiggins, something like

Love + Martin + Shved to Cle
Wiggins + Barea + Waiters to Phi
Noel + Young + Bennett to Min

I do think though, this whole Wolfs not tanking thing make things a lot more blah, I mean if they want to tank a obvious move would be to trade Love AND Pek, then asking for the moon from everyone make sense.

Like

Love + Pek to Cle
Wiggins + Barea + Varajao to Phi
Noel + Young + Bennett + Waiters + all 3 Clev first to Min.

I'm not particularly high on Waiters but if you have Rubio as his back court mate and let him do a lot of the attacking that should be a good way to drive up his value at least.
   998. steagles Posted: July 28, 2014 at 10:03 PM (#4759465)
Or strait up Noel for Wiggins, something like

Love + Martin + Shved to Cle
Wiggins + Barea + Waiters to Phi
Noel + Young + Bennett to Min
i would *hate* that.

i get it. it actually makes some sense for the sixers. MCW/wiggins/saric/embiid is a good young core to have in place. MCW can defend and create at the 1, wiggins gives you a lockdown perimeter defender at the 3, saric is a euro stretch 4, and embiid is a prototypical 5. that's a core that i could see gelling together and doing some interesting things in the next decade.


but even seeing the upside in it, i'd still rather see noel play in philly. after a year of waiting for him to play, it would *suck* to trade him before he gets the chance to.
   999. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 28, 2014 at 10:42 PM (#4759476)
they traded spencer hawes for second round picks at last year's deadline. they traded evan turner for a 2017 2nd round pick at last year's deadline. thad should bring back more in return, but i don't think he's gonna bring back a whole lot more.

young, as you note, is the best of that bunch (by some margin) and they're getting a bottom of the round first and a negative asset (barea). that's worth less than the hawes deal.
   1000. steagles Posted: July 28, 2014 at 11:28 PM (#4759490)
flip.
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