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Monday, June 02, 2014

OT: Monthly NBA Thread- June 2014

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: Vladimir Putin’s draft strategy, Stephen Drew’s breakfast, and whether Kevin has taken a material step toward harming Russell Westbrook.

andrewberg Posted: June 02, 2014 at 07:57 PM | 2043 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba, off-topic

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   1701. Jimmy P Posted: July 03, 2014 at 12:44 PM (#4742678)
Ben Gordon to ORL (really?) for 2/9 (really!?!)


I read that the first year is only partially guaranteed and the second year is fully unguaranteed. So, it's not terribly crazy. Just plain crazy.

Why would any player prefer to play for Houston? They have the loyalty of a barn cat.


I think the fans and fan loyalty rates close to last on players' lists when they choose teams (look at Lebron choosing Miami). Lots of players choose to live in Houston in the offseason. Texas has low taxes.
   1702. kpelton Posted: July 03, 2014 at 12:47 PM (#4742679)
when projecting performance in '14-'15 do you weigh '11-'12 performance as is, or do you project their WARP from that year over a full season before using it in your system?


Any WARP figures are prorated to 82 games. It matters in the projections to the extent that minutes/FGA/3PA/FTA totals are lower, and the baselines for the projections are weighted by those factors. So a little.

1. Assist rate as a team has a pretty dubious correlation with offensive production.


Yep. Unassisted baskets show the ability of stars to create their own shot, or are often putbacks, both of which are good things offensively.

2. Turnover rate, contrary to popular believe, doesn't have an obvious negative correlation with offensive production.


All other things equal, fewer turnovers are better, but all things are never equal and there's some tradeoff with taking risks that are positive for offenses.

3. when you slap a lot of high usage guys together the result will usually be less than ideal.


Offensively, I think it mostly comes out as a wash. But putting together a lot of high-usage guys usually means trading off other skills, and it definitely doesn't help produce a cohesive, happy group.
   1703. RollingWave Posted: July 03, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4742681)
Thx KP
   1704. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 03, 2014 at 12:54 PM (#4742689)
I read that the first year is only partially guaranteed and the second year is fully unguaranteed. So, it's not terribly crazy. Just plain crazy.
Z. Lowe (at least, I think it was Lowe) said ORL needs a couple of contracts like this to reach the salary floor.
   1705. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 03, 2014 at 01:02 PM (#4742700)
Z. Lowe (at least, I think it was Lowe) said ORL needs a couple of contracts like this to reach the salary floor.

But they don't really have to reach the floor. It doesn't mean anything if they don't - the players on the roster just get more money. All that really matters is that they have enough roster spots filled.
   1706. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 03, 2014 at 01:05 PM (#4742704)
despite having Dwight and Asik, Houston allowed the most offensive rebounds, their main issue defensively was amusingly not because they couldn't prevent good shots (they allowed a pretty low EFG against) but because they allowed way too many extra shots.


Not really that surprising -- being in position to block or alter a shot means you're not in rebounding position. Couple this with Dwight's pure enjoyment of swatting the ball way out of bounds and you're giving up a fair number of possessions with this approach, which definitely cuts into the impact on FG%.
   1707. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 03, 2014 at 01:06 PM (#4742708)
But they don't really have to reach the floor. It doesn't mean anything if they don't - the players on the roster just get more money. All that really matters is that they have enough roster spots filled.


Well, but viewed in this lens it's a choice between Gordon or nothing for the same amount of money.

I'd take nothing, but maybe Gordon is a better clubhouse dude than I realize?
   1708. rr Posted: July 03, 2014 at 03:18 PM (#4742804)
The Anthony picture will be clearer pretty soon. The Knicks' guys are coming to LA to meet with him today after he talks to the Lakers, which I think is going on right now. Jeanie Buss is going to the LAL pitch meeting, which means that Anthony and his agent etc. will be hearing pitches from Jeanie and Phil back-to-back in the same day.

Spec is that Anthony is leaning strongly towards staying in New York.
   1709. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 03, 2014 at 03:29 PM (#4742809)
   1710. PJ Martinez Posted: July 03, 2014 at 03:37 PM (#4742812)
The other speculation with the Gordon deal has to do with his agent -- same guy who represents Oladipo, I believe. (Zach Lowe mentioned this on Twitter, I think.) Maybe they're trying to buy some good will, reach the salary floor, take a chance on a return to form, and add a sizable (but only partially guaranteed) salary they can potentially throw into trades down the line.
   1711. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2014 at 03:40 PM (#4742813)
I read that the first year is only partially guaranteed and the second year is fully unguaranteed. So, it's not terribly crazy. Just plain crazy.

Honestly, I took that as a given - they want to hit the salary floor + have an "asset" in that they can use him in a trade. The weirdest part, for me, was 'why Gordon?'. The potential Oladipo agent angle is interesting, that could explain it, I guess.

rumor!
Thabo to ATL for 3/12.
   1712. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 03, 2014 at 04:37 PM (#4742838)
Marc Stein ?@ESPNSteinLine 23s
Dirk always likely to be first major free agent to decide. Sources say sides agreed today to three-year pact believed to be in $30M ballpark


Mavs probably know they're not getting Melo if they're finalizing this.
   1713. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2014 at 05:04 PM (#4742852)
Why? His salary is probably smaller than his cap hold.you want to do his deal early.
Mind you,Melo to Dallas makes no sense
   1714. rr Posted: July 03, 2014 at 08:36 PM (#4742978)
MT @Mike_Bresnahan: Lakers went Hollywood for presentation to Melo. Biz team presented short vid done by "The Matrix" producer Joel Silver.


Buzz beginning in LA and SACTO that Collison signing with Kings may put Farmar with the Clippers, replacing Collison in the role backing up Paul, and Isaiah Thomas on the Lakers.
   1715. RollingWave Posted: July 03, 2014 at 09:17 PM (#4742992)
Collison hasn't been good in quite awhile, if Sac counting on him to start they're going to be awful next year (as in, more awful than this year, Thomas was basically their 2nd best player all year.)

   1716. madvillain Posted: July 03, 2014 at 09:33 PM (#4743000)
Bulls fans on suicide watch. People need to buckle up, it's gonna be a wild ride through FA this year. Latest rumor out of MIA is that the Big 3 have had a "communications breakdown" and that Bosh is not happy with Lebron.

Collison hasn't been good in quite awhile, if Sac counting on him to start they're going to be awful next year (as in, more awful than this year, Thomas was basically their 2nd best player all year.


Huh? If anything he's criminally under-rated. He's a solid starter by most metrics.
   1717. smileyy Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:24 PM (#4743028)
I have this what-if in my head: What if Jordan had lost his 5th or 6th title? Would he have played GM (badly?) in an attempt to fix whatever he thought was broken? Would he have alienated teammates?
   1718. rr Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:25 PM (#4743029)
WindhorstESPN Brian Windhorst
For perspective: on July 3, 2010, Wade was asking for a 2nd meeting with Bulls, LeBron was considering 6 teams & no one knew Bosh's plans.


RT @ramonashelburne: Lakers made it clear to Melo today they'd offer the maximum four-year, $97 million contract if he chose them


The exact number of teams to secure face-to-face meetings with Cleveland-based agent Rich Paul was not immediately known, but sources told ESPN.com that the Phoenix Suns, Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks have had the opportunity to make presentations to Paul in recent days.

Dan Gilbert, owner of James' home state Cavaliers, also has met with Paul or will do so soon, a source told ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard. Gilbert, who lives in Detroit, is in Cleveland, according to the source.
   1719. rr Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:29 PM (#4743033)
Would he have played GM (badly?) in an attempt to fix whatever he thought was broken?

No way. He would have crushed his enemies, seen them driven before him, and heard the lamentations of their women.
   1720. RollingWave Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:29 PM (#4743035)
Huh? If anything he's criminally under-rated. He's a solid starter by most metrics.

Not if you look at adjusted +/- , his count stats and % stats are pretty good, underrated is correct, but his ESPN RPM is -1.7 and RAPM is -1.8 , those are quite bad. from RAPM's breakdown it's obvious that it's almost entirely on defense.

So he's like a poorman's Calderon (as in, good offensive player that's completely off set by how bad he is defensively and then some.)

Yes, most PG aren't good defenders, but even in comparison with other PG Collison is quite bad, basically he's Kyrie on Defense but obviously without Kyrie on offense.


   1721. PJ Martinez Posted: July 03, 2014 at 11:56 PM (#4743080)
@jadande You know NBA owners have it good when players' only leverage is willingness to take less money
   1722. rr Posted: July 03, 2014 at 11:58 PM (#4743081)
Adrian Wojnarowski ? @WojYahooNBA
Follow
Chris Kaman has reached agreement on a two-year, $10M deal with Portland, league source tells Yahoo Sports.
   1723. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 04, 2014 at 02:50 PM (#4743349)
Raps reportedly keep RFA PF Patty Patterson for 3/18
   1724. MikeOberly Posted: July 04, 2014 at 03:06 PM (#4743359)

A guy named Joshua Teplitz is going hard on Twitter, saying James to Cavs is a done deal. He's either really connected, or a buffoon. (Probably buffoon)I wouldn't be surprised by anything Lebron does right now, but would still bet on the Heat if I had to lay money down. I think there is a chance he goes back to the Cavs now, and I would have said zero chance at the point where Bosh and Wade opted out.
   1725. GregD Posted: July 04, 2014 at 03:07 PM (#4743362)
Woj is making it sound like Melo to the Knicks

Curious if his earlier story of Melo reaching out to Gasol has any legs. I still think Pau will get more money elsewhere.

Raps reportedly keep RFA PF Patty Patterson for 3/18
Good couple of days for the pre-Cal Cats (Well, Patterson played for Cal but wasn't a Cal recruit. Meeks didn't play for Cal at all, unfortunately.)
   1726. madvillain Posted: July 04, 2014 at 04:28 PM (#4743422)
Chicago Bulls fans online are the one of the most deranged, psychotic fanbases I have seen, and as a regular forum reader of Sunderland FC, UM football and the Detroit LIons that is saying something.

It must be the Jordan years followed by the Rose injury and the Decision have created this toxic, psychotic, cringing dog mentality mixed with unrealistic expectations. The Bulls RealGM board right now is a more interesting social experiment than anything Facebook would try.
   1727. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 04, 2014 at 04:33 PM (#4743430)
Others are asking it but: where is Thomas gonna go / what is he gonna get? Interesting how SAC seems to have given up on their second best player.
   1728. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 04, 2014 at 04:53 PM (#4743463)
Novak dealt to UTA
   1729. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 04, 2014 at 06:48 PM (#4743629)
Novak salary dump included the Jazzgetting a 2nd and the Raps getting a non-guaranteed deal (Diante Garrett)
   1730. madvillain Posted: July 04, 2014 at 07:13 PM (#4743639)
Mirotic to Chicago is a done deal according to numerous Spanish sources. Buyout was around 3 million, he's going to pay it and will be a Bull in '14-15.

If Chicago adds Stephenson and Mirotic that would be a very successful offseason imo, even if they "miss out" on Love or Carmelo. In fact I'd probably rather have Mirotic and Stephenson than just Melo.

edit: "according to sources close to the situation the Knicks believe Chicago is the only real threat for Anthony and hope to have a resolution by monday".

Well, there you go.
   1731. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 04, 2014 at 07:50 PM (#4743653)
Hawes to LAC for 4/23
   1732. RollingWave Posted: July 04, 2014 at 08:47 PM (#4743682)
Patterson: he was quite solid later in the year as a 3rd big, stretch the floor well and has become less of a defensive liability.

Hawes: we'll see, certainly for the Clippers their 3rd big can't get any worse, so there's that, but Hawes' defense has always been quite bad.

Thomas : Whoever pick him up for less than 9-10m per and play him as the 3rd guard would probably get one of the biggest steal in the off season. If Chicago whiffs on Melo / Love they really should consider, he's like Nate Robinson, only actually good. I think in a few years we'll talk about this as another terrible decision on the King's part. As a starter it gets a bit more tricky, most teams have established starters or guys they want to develop. Another rumored possibility is that they S&T him for Rondo, which I actually think would be a win for the Celtics if they get any assets in return.


   1733. stevegamer Posted: July 04, 2014 at 09:23 PM (#4743696)
Hawes is a good fit with the Clips, as he's quite different from the 2 starters, and gives them a stretch big who can play the 4 or 5.
   1734. Spivey Posted: July 04, 2014 at 09:31 PM (#4743701)
Patty Mills reupping with the Spurs at 3/12 seems ridiculous to me. How is that not the slam dunk deal of the offseason? Isn't he just as good as Thomas? And oodles ####### better than Meeks and Gordon and the like?

Have we reached the point where Spurs deals aren't considered because people apparently are willing to take massive discounts to re-up there?
   1735. rr Posted: July 04, 2014 at 10:10 PM (#4743717)
ISTM that the best way to get James to Cleveland would be for Minnesota and Cleveland to work out Wiggins+stuff for Love deal. Irving and Love bring some key skills that Wade and Bosh do/did: dynamic lead guard who can carry a big scoring load; versatile big man who can play inside or outside. Love and Irving both have defensive issues, but they are young and talented, and in the East, those two plus James would give Cleveland, and James, a nice window. I don't know if James cares about narrative at all, but his coming back to Cleveland as the battle-tested champion with two younger All-Stars in place would make for a great one; the slogans write themselves:

The Return of the King
Unfinished Business
Unanimous Decision
Bringing His Talents Back Home etc etc etc

I personally think this would be pretty cool, although I would like it better if it didn't involve Dan Gilbert.

But I would still bet on James going back to Miami.
   1736. rr Posted: July 04, 2014 at 10:11 PM (#4743718)
   1737. MikeOberly Posted: July 04, 2014 at 10:24 PM (#4743723)
A guy I know on another board who is pretty connected (i.e., works in the sports industry, amongst other things, is on friendly terms with Pat Riley and many agents et al) said just this afternoon that the Cavs are 'quietly but aggressively trying to move on Love - and it doesn't involve Wiggins or Irving'. Take it for what it's worth, but I personally don't believe the Cavs could make that deal while keeping Wiggins.
   1738. rr Posted: July 04, 2014 at 10:36 PM (#4743728)
Interesting. I agree, though: if I am Minnesota and Cleveland comes to me about Love, if Wiggins is not in the deal, the conversation is a short one. Even if Minnesota is not that into Wiggins, they would still have him as a great trade asset.
   1739. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 04, 2014 at 10:49 PM (#4743731)
LeBron is not going back to ####### Cleveland.
   1740. bibigon Posted: July 05, 2014 at 12:45 AM (#4743776)
Patty Mills reupping with the Spurs at 3/12 seems ridiculous to me. How is that not the slam dunk deal of the offseason? Isn't he just as good as Thomas? And oodles ####### better than Meeks and Gordon and the like?

Mills is hurt, and we've never seen him be good outside the Spurs. It's not crazy to be a little unsure of how well his performance will translate outside the greatest organization in American sports...
   1741. Booey Posted: July 05, 2014 at 01:33 AM (#4743782)
LeBron is not going back to ####### Cleveland.


This. Has James implied in any way, shape, or form that he's even considering a Cavs homecoming? IMO, this meme has always seemed like nothing more than an entirely media driven "wouldn't it be cool?" hypothetical with no actual substance behind it.
   1742. steagles Posted: July 05, 2014 at 01:52 AM (#4743784)
LeBron is not going back to ####### Cleveland.
you got that right. unless 'battered hometown hero syndrome' is actually thing, there's no way that happens.

Patty Mills reupping with the Spurs at 3/12 seems ridiculous to me. How is that not the slam dunk deal of the offseason? Isn't he just as good as Thomas? And oodles ####### better than Meeks and Gordon and the like?
mills might be as good as thomas, but thomas is more of a proven commodity. mills has never been a starter, and if he signed somewhere else, you'd also have to wonder how he'd be effected by leaving san antonio. also he's injured and thomas isn't.

Patterson: he was quite solid later in the year as a 3rd big, stretch the floor well and has become less of a defensive liability.
patterson is a really solid player. it's a shame he's gonna be stuck on the bench in toronto, because he'd be a really useful role player for a team that's actually good.

Hawes: we'll see, certainly for the Clippers their 3rd big can't get any worse, so there's that, but Hawes' defense has always been quite bad.
he's not a terrible defender when his back is healthy.
but i'm not sure he's a good fit for the clips.
   1743. MikeOberly Posted: July 05, 2014 at 02:26 AM (#4743787)
I have no idea what James is going to do, but there is clearly a nonzero chance he signs with Cavs. I think it's either Heat or Cavs.

Lebron James and his representatives are in serious talks with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

— CLEsportsTalk.net (@CLEsportsTalk) July 5, 2014


Report: LeBron James and the Cavaliers are in intense talks. The other teams in talks are distractions. An agreement is expected (Via GMC)

— N B A T A L K (@Talk_NBA_) July 5, 2014

   1744. rr Posted: July 05, 2014 at 02:32 AM (#4743790)
This is from two years ago, but:

"I think it would be great," James said after the Heat's practice at The Q in preparation for tonight's game against the Cavs. "It would be fun to play in front of these fans again. I had a lot fun times in my seven years here. You can't predict the future, and hopefully I continue to stay healthy. I'm here as a Miami Heat player, and I'm happy where I am now, but I don't rule that out in no sense.

"And if I decide to come back, hopefully the fans will accept me."


"He said what he said out of anger and he would probably want to take that back. But I made a mistake, too, and there are some things I would want to take back as well. You learn from your mistakes and move on."

Asked specifically if he could play for Gilbert again, James said, "Would I play for Dan again? Dan is not the coach. I can play for any coach. We'll see what happens."


Cleveland was one of the teams that James' agent met with this week. IF one assumes that James is actually considering leaving Miami, then Cleveland would seem to be a possibility, particularly if they acquire Love.

As to what he is saying about Cleveland or any other team right now: nothing, AFAIK. He is on vacation and is going to Brazil for the World Cup.

   1745. RollingWave Posted: July 05, 2014 at 02:59 AM (#4743791)
Lebron is really hard to read, his thoughts is really complex and deep so really anything is possible, but yeah logically Heat would make more sense, but really, Lebron wants to forge a legacy in a historical sense, so you know, there is the angel that he might want to go back to Cleveland cause I think most of us agree if he could really lead the Cavs to a title that's a legacy MJ never had. So like I'm totally not sure what he's going to do, odds are it's Miami but i'm really not confident I read Lebron all that well.


patterson is a really solid player. it's a shame he's gonna be stuck on the bench in toronto, because he'd be a really useful role player for a team that's actually good.


Well there is a chance they trade Amir, who's going into his last year and they have a lot of young players stacked up at the 4, as I've repeated said, I would trade almost anything for Amir if I were a contender and need a 4. But in retrospect Morey trading him for Thomas Robinson was a very underrated bad trade for him. If they could have kept Patterson and landed Howard they probably done better this year.


Patty Mills reupping with the Spurs at 3/12 seems ridiculous to me. How is that not the slam dunk deal of the offseason? Isn't he just as good as Thomas? And oodles ####### better than Meeks and Gordon and the like?

Have we reached the point where Spurs deals aren't considered because people apparently are willing to take massive discounts to re-up there?


Well yes most of us do consider Spurs operating in a completely different CBA / League, think about this, they almost never make any large name trades, they never sign big name guys, a almost everyone they want to keep sign at a discount rate, They're totally not operating in the same league.

Mills might be as good as IT, they had similar per /36 number and RAPM, but obviously Thomas did it with a lot more minutes and a completely mess of a team. so ... take that for what it's worth.




   1746. MikeOberly Posted: July 05, 2014 at 08:20 AM (#4743820)
Lebron is really hard to read, his thoughts is really complex and deep so really anything is possible, but yeah logically Heat would make more sense, but really, Lebron wants to forge a legacy in a historical sense, so you know, there is the angel that he might want to go back to Cleveland cause I think most of us agree if he could really lead the Cavs to a title that's a legacy MJ never had. So like I'm totally not sure what he's going to do, odds are it's Miami but i'm really not confident I read Lebron all that well.


Pretty much agree with that, and, also, I think people underestimate his link with Akron. That's his home, and that's where his guys are.

I am not a Cavs fan, any more than I am of any other team (well, I am sort of a Spurs fan, I guess), but I live in Ohio, and I am hearing some weird things, and there has been some odd stuff coming from current members of the Cavs the last couple of days. I do think there is something going on here. I suppose we'll know something in the next few days.

I believe he's going to sign with the Heat or Cavs, and there is no third team. Events of the last few days make me favor the Cavs, as hard as that may be for some to believe.
   1747. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 05, 2014 at 09:35 AM (#4743837)
I think people underestimate the animosity between him and Dan Gilbert. He was always going to leave, but he chose to stab Cleveland in the back 45 times on his way out because of his teammate/close friend screwing his mother and everyone in the organization, all the way up to the owner, knowing about it and trying to hide it from him. And then there was The Letter. Beyond the obvious fact that no one who has a say in the matter wants to live in Cleveland, I cannot imagine LeBron is going to seriously consider signing a contract with Gilbert. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if he WAS in serious negotiations--just so he can stick it to Gilbert and the Cavaliers again, out of spite.
   1748. GregD Posted: July 05, 2014 at 09:46 AM (#4743839)
I am rooting for Cleveland just because I enjoy realizing that even in middle age it is still possible to be absolutely mind-blown shocked by the course of events from time to time. And I would love to watch the first Cleveland-Miami game!
   1749. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: July 05, 2014 at 10:33 AM (#4743847)
The only way I can see James going to Cleveland is if he and Gilbert make a handshake agreement that James can buy the team when he retires. Does that sound crazy? Yes, yes it does.
   1750. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 05, 2014 at 11:02 AM (#4743854)
I'm pretty sure that LeBron neither would or should trust Dan Gilbert on a handshake agreement.
   1751. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2014 at 11:55 AM (#4743874)
The Wade opt put makes me think that LBJ is sticking around.

I know Elhassan (ESPN) chuckled at it, but I'm okay w the Patterson terms. Underrated defender who can stretch the floor and is still youngish - sounds good.
   1752. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 05, 2014 at 12:47 PM (#4743922)
From a roster perspective, are the Cavs a lot more attractive than the Heat going forward?
   1753. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 05, 2014 at 01:00 PM (#4743931)
They are if Love is added, yeah.
   1754. RollingWave Posted: July 05, 2014 at 01:05 PM (#4743937)
From a roster perspective, are the Cavs a lot more attractive than the Heat going forward?


Next year? no, next 3-5 years? Yes, not entirely because the Cavs are good as the Heat's long term outlook right now is scary.

I think people underestimate the animosity between him and Dan Gilbert. He was always going to leave, but he chose to stab Cleveland in the back 45 times on his way out because of his teammate/close friend screwing his mother and everyone in the organization, all the way up to the owner, knowing about it and trying to hide it from him. And then there was The Letter. Beyond the obvious fact that no one who has a say in the matter wants to live in Cleveland, I cannot imagine LeBron is going to seriously consider signing a contract with Gilbert. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if he WAS in serious negotiations--just so he can stick it to Gilbert and the Cavaliers again, out of spite.


Yeah, there is that, so I don't know, I use to think that's the case too, that Lebron would never go back unless Gilbert sold the team or make some sort of really humiliating public apology. But obviously I hope interesting things happen ;) and the odds of Lebron doing something we totally don't except in FA is higher than most other super stars

Also, regardless of what happens with Lebron or Love, Cavs should totally trade Dion Waiters right now, for anything, even a couple of 2nds.


   1755. PJ Martinez Posted: July 05, 2014 at 01:42 PM (#4743980)
There may be a nonzero chance that LBJ goes back to Cleveland, but all the rumor-mongering I've seen to that effect seems totally baseless, all of it, so far as I can tell, coming from outlets that have little to no credibility.

That said, there are at least rumblings from solid reporters that the Miami situation is not rock solid. Marc Stein: "We're gotten to the point in free agency where some teams in pursuit think LeBron is more likely to leave than Melo. Stunning turn of events." Woj: "Chris Bosh's reps have made recent calls on market to reconfirm that max slots would be available to him, sources tell Yahoo. Answers: Yes." So that's sort of interesting.

I still think Bosh, Wade, and James all re-sign with the Heat, though.
   1756. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2014 at 01:53 PM (#4743989)
That's where I am, more or less, PJ.
   1757. rr Posted: July 05, 2014 at 02:17 PM (#4744019)
I think people underestimate the animosity between him and Dan Gilbert.


--

Maybe. Or it may be that James doesn't really give a #### about Dan Gilbert at this point. Windhorst said that the best way to recruit James is very simple: roster. As per Windhorst, as long as he gets around the max, what James mostly cares about is who else is on the team with him. If that is actually true, then other teams are probably really in play.

That said, when it comes down to signing a deal, it is, as I said when this started, hard for me to picture James bailing on Riley, Spoelstra, Arison, Wade, Bosh, Haslem, and South Beach--so he can go play for Dan Gilbert again.
   1758. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2014 at 02:26 PM (#4744029)
Rumors!
DAL said to be closing on a 3 year deal w Devin Harris; IND said to have an agreement w Lavoy Allen
   1759. rr Posted: July 05, 2014 at 02:51 PM (#4744041)
SPNSteinLine Marc Stein
Story going online now: ESPN sources say Sixers have expressed interest in trading for Jeremy Lin. Sources say Bucks are also exploring it


This is supposedly because Dork Elvis is all about Chris Bosh. Bosh would help Houston a lot IMO.
   1760. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2014 at 03:14 PM (#4744057)
Harris might be 4/16.
Pierre Jackson reportedly suffers severe Achilles injury in today's Orlando summer league game. Philly, per custom for guys on n-g deals, will cover medical costs, incl rehab
   1761. MikeOberly Posted: July 05, 2014 at 05:30 PM (#4744188)
Bosh to Houston would be huge.

Regarding Gilbert/James, supposedly Gilbert apologised to James some time ago, and James accepted the apology. They were pretty friendly during the Z number retirement thing. I think that stuff is way overblown, and won't play much or any part on wherever James decides to sign.
   1762. PJ Martinez Posted: July 05, 2014 at 05:56 PM (#4744229)
I suspect the Gilbert issue, if there is one, may be less a personal matter than a business one: Gilbert has a reputation for meddling inexpertly in the decisions of his front office, and the team's been through multiple coaches and GMs since LeBron left. Blatt seems like a promising hire, but they haven't exactly been a model franchise during Gilbert's tenure.
   1763. MikeOberly Posted: July 05, 2014 at 07:03 PM (#4744397)
If this is in any way accurate, Gilbert is willing to let Griffin run the basketball operations. And if it's true that Bosh is bent on a max deal, I'd say he's leaving the Heat.

As an aside, apparently Nike has also told James' agent that a "The King returns home!" marketing campaign would be one of the largest marketing platforms in their company's history. And I'm sure Lebron's clique is salivating over that.

Oh well, we'll see in a few days.
   1764. JJ1986 Posted: July 05, 2014 at 07:18 PM (#4744414)
I can buy that LeBron decided to come back to Cleveland this week, but it makes no sense to think he's been planning it since the finals ended. Wade and Bosh clearly thought that he was coming back when they opted out.
   1765. PJ Martinez Posted: July 05, 2014 at 07:24 PM (#4744419)
   1766. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: July 05, 2014 at 07:38 PM (#4744424)
As an aside, apparently Nike has also told James' agent that a "The King returns home!" marketing campaign would be one of the largest marketing platforms in their company's history. And I'm sure Lebron's clique is salivating over that.
This doesn't make much sense. Who, outside of Ohio, would care about this campaign?

Also Woj and Simmons are both reporting that the Lakers are now serious contenders for Melo.
   1767. Into the Void Posted: July 05, 2014 at 09:15 PM (#4744455)
Are the Lakers still trying to sign Gasol? Because if so, I don't get the whole Carmelo thing....Kobe/Anthony/Gasol and whatever they have left to fill out the lineup would scare no one in the West. Their defense would be comically bad.
   1768. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 05, 2014 at 09:34 PM (#4744459)
If the Lakers can be serious contenders for Carmelo, why aren't they serious contenders for LeBron?
   1769. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2014 at 09:58 PM (#4744470)
LBJ and Meli seem to have fairly different motivations. I can see Melo in LA - max money, strong media market.
LBJ wouldn't do it - that ain't winning anything.
   1770. rr Posted: July 05, 2014 at 11:05 PM (#4744496)
In a surprising twist, the Los Angeles Lakers have emerged as the team that most worries the New York Knicks in their attempt to re-sign superstar free-agent forward Carmelo Anthony, sources with knowledge of the situation told ESPN.

The Lakers' pitch -- of teaming Anthony with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and prized rookie Julius Randle on a team with no long-term salary obligations -- made what one source described as a "strong impression" on Anthony and has made his decision over the holiday weekend "tough," according to another source close to the situation.


link

I am opposed to the Lakers doing this, unless it leads somewhere else that we can't see. Putting Pau with Anthony and Kobe would have been a good idea five years ago, but it isn't one now. That is a not a slam at Anthony; he is a very valuable player, and there are numbers which suggest that his D was better last year than people are saying. But it is too late for this idea. Pau turns 34 next month; Kobe hits 36 a few days after that, and Anthony is 30 himself. The fact that the Spurs won with Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker doesn't mean that old is the new black. There is some low-level, totally unsubstantiated spec in SoCal that Time Warner has Lakers' management over the proverbial barrel, drove Kobe's deal, and is pushing for this. There is also the Phil vs. the Busses subtext in play. If it does happen, I assume that Anthony will get an ETO after Year 2.

It would create some nice internet fireworks, pitting Fanboy dreams against Hater sneers. And the sabermetric guys who write at the big sites would have a blast with it.
   1771. rr Posted: July 05, 2014 at 11:39 PM (#4744520)
Also, the low-level buzz is that Pau is waiting on Anthony, and will be back on the Lakers if Anthony signs here; otherwise, Pau will probably go to the Thunder (Pau posted on his website that he would make his FA call based on "sporting considerations", not money, and some people are starting to think that he may have actually meant it). But we will see.

Another guy affected by this may be Jordan Farmar. The Clippers supposedly contacted Farmar about taking Darren Collison's old job as Paul's back-up, which would be perfect for Farmar: stays in LA, plays on a good team, and Rivers will rest Paul enough that Farmar will get to play some minutes. And, of course, Paul may miss some time again, like he did last year. But Farmar seems to see himself as a Laker, so he would probably be willing to come back cheap if Pau and Anthony were on board and he would possibly be the starter at the 1.
   1772. RollingWave Posted: July 05, 2014 at 11:52 PM (#4744523)
Given that i'm pretty sure the #1 factor in the Melo decision has always been his wife, that the Lakers suddenly coming into the picture is hardly surprising.

While yes, the Laker's going to take at least 2 years to rebuilt into something worth a damn, it's not like the Knicks are that much better. (granted, in a much easier conference.)
   1773. rr Posted: July 06, 2014 at 12:21 AM (#4744530)
Yeah--supposedly they talked up opportunities in entertainment that Anthony's wife could have by his playing in LA and TWC and Joel Silver were involved.
   1774. steagles Posted: July 06, 2014 at 01:49 AM (#4744550)
the lakers have nothing to lose by signing melo/gasol. it's not ideal for them, but there is no ideal for them right now. they're a mediocre team with a 25MM hole in their budget so what else are they gonna do?
   1775. RollingWave Posted: July 06, 2014 at 02:01 AM (#4744552)
Mediocre is a overstatement,they have three guys on the roster, a guy that blew out his achilles, a forty year old guard with cooked knees,and Bob Sacre
   1776. steagles Posted: July 06, 2014 at 02:07 AM (#4744554)
SPNSteinLine Marc Stein
Story going online now: ESPN sources say Sixers have expressed interest in trading for Jeremy Lin. Sources say Bucks are also exploring it
this is phrased incorrectly. the sixers have no interest in trading for jeremy lin. what they're interested in is getting a pair of 1st round draft picks in exchange for eating lin's contract.

Pierre Jackson reportedly suffers severe Achilles injury in today's Orlando summer league game. Philly, per custom for guys on n-g deals, will cover medical costs, incl rehab
yep. he's pierre jackson, so it's not exactly earth shattering news, but it's unfortunate.


in somewhat related news, nerlens noel looks like an absolute stud.
   1777. rr Posted: July 06, 2014 at 02:09 AM (#4744555)
They actually have pretty much have six guys on the roster (Kobe, Nash, Sacre, Marshall, Clarkson, and Randle) but yes, they are in serious trouble. As to what else they could do, I would make a max offer to Monroe. SVG will probably match it, but it is worth a shot. I would try bring in Stephenson and then try to fill out the roster with some rim protection and some defense, and a 3P shooter.

The only reasons to bring in Anthony and bring back Pau are ratings/bling, and thinking it will lead to something else (like Durant).

Both Knicks and Lakers fans have some mixed feelings about the whole thing. The fanbase that gets Anthony unless it is Chicago or Houston will not be jumping up and down.
   1778. RollingWave Posted: July 06, 2014 at 04:56 AM (#4744571)
this is phrased incorrectly. the sixers have no interest in trading for jeremy lin. what they're interested in is getting a pair of 1st round draft picks in exchange for eating lin's contract.


Not entirely, because Lin on his last year could very plausibly be flipped to another contender mid year if they lose their guard to injury (or suckiness.)

Having said that, I reiterate my stance that I don't see him changing team because I don't see Morey getting anyone he wants this time around.

   1779. steagles Posted: July 06, 2014 at 05:50 AM (#4744578)
Not entirely, because Lin on his last year could very plausibly be flipped to another contender mid year if they lose their guard to injury (or suckiness.)
true. maybe you could flip lin at the deadline for a couple 2nd round picks, but that's not enough of a reason to trade for lin right now.
Having said that, I reiterate my stance that I don't see him changing team because I don't see Morey getting anyone he wants this time around.


i still think bosh is selling himself short by not going out on his own. maybe this is all for show and him, wade and lebron have already agreed to terms with miami, but if not, he should really be more proactive in looking for his own landing spot because there's a good chance it could be more attractive than staying in miami, even if the big 3 sign up for another year.
   1780. RollingWave Posted: July 06, 2014 at 08:40 AM (#4744586)
true. maybe you could flip lin at the deadline for a couple 2nd round picks, but that's not enough of a reason to trade for lin right now.

Well if your getting a decent player for free it's never a bad thing when you have the cap space and isn't going anywhere. theoretically a lineup of MCW / Lin / KJ McDaniel / Thad / Noel could be surprisingly decent, and obviously if someone is going to pay you to grab him why not.


i still think bosh is selling himself short by not going out on his own. maybe this is all for show and him, wade and lebron have already agreed to terms with miami, but if not, he should really be more proactive in looking for his own landing spot because there's a good chance it could be more attractive than staying in miami, even if the big 3 sign up for another year.

Sure, but A. he might not leave and B. even if he leave Houston's not the only place he could go.
   1781. steagles Posted: July 06, 2014 at 09:09 AM (#4744596)
Well if your getting a decent player for free it's never a bad thing when you have the cap space and isn't going anywhere. theoretically a lineup of MCW / Lin / KJ McDaniel / Thad / Noel could be surprisingly decent, and obviously if someone is going to pay you to grab him why not.
the problem with that is sixers management doesn't want the team to be surprisingly decent. the apparent goal for this year is to be predictably godawful, hence drafting two players in the lottery who won't play until 2015 and 2016 respectively.

i'm sure the sixers are willing to trade for lin, but they're not gonna do it because of anything he does on the court. if it happens, it'll be because houston paid them to take lin off their hands.


also i don't think it's at all dependent on melo/bosh/lebron signing there. lin is their backup point guard and he's eating up more than 8MM worth of capspace. that alone is incentive to get rid of him. add in that he'll actually cost 15MM in real cash to be their backup PG, and it becomes a lot less about who they can bring in and a lot more about how they can cast him out.
   1782. RollingWave Posted: July 06, 2014 at 10:37 AM (#4744628)
also i don't think it's at all dependent on melo/bosh/lebron signing there. lin is their backup point guard and he's eating up more than 8MM worth of capspace. that alone is incentive to get rid of him. add in that he'll actually cost 15MM in real cash to be their backup PG, and it becomes a lot less about who they can bring in and a lot more about how they can cast him out.


Ahhh, but the problem is that with the going rate of role players this off season 8m is not likely to get you players better than Jeremy Lin, Avery Bradley got 8, Jodie Meeks got 6, even Ben freaking Gordon got 4.5, and by waiting for Melo / Bosh / Lebron to fall the Rockets have let most of the useful role players slip already, which complicates the matter even more. Also, if they move their cap now and gets either very small contracts guys or larger contract multiple year guys, it keeps them out of any plausible trades this season, since their only matching money contract left would be Parsons, who can't be traded next year anyway (RFA in their first year of deal.)

the 15m is a bigger problem to every other team than the Rockets, since they are paying him what they owed him from the previous 2 years, where they paid 5m in a 8m cap.

   1783. steagles Posted: July 06, 2014 at 11:03 AM (#4744634)
Ahhh, but the problem is that with the going rate of role players this off season 8m is not likely to get you players better than Jeremy Lin, Avery Bradley got 8, Jodie Meeks got 6, even Ben freaking Gordon got 4.5, and by waiting for Melo / Bosh / Lebron to fall the Rockets have let most of the useful role players slip already, which complicates the matter even more. Also, if they move their cap now and gets either very small contracts guys or larger contract multiple year guys, it keeps them out of any plausible trades this season, since their only matching money contract left would be Parsons, who can't be traded next year anyway (RFA in their first year of deal.)
that's not the going rate for role players; that's just the going rate for those role players.

   1784. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 06, 2014 at 12:02 PM (#4744665)
I don't know if the Sixers really plan to be as bad as possible this year, they did just get rid of James Anderson. Can they really replace him with a WORSE player?
   1785. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 06, 2014 at 12:03 PM (#4744666)
I don't know if the Sixers really plan to be as bad as possible this year, they did just get rid of James Anderson. Can they really replace him with a WORSE player?
   1786. steagles Posted: July 06, 2014 at 02:00 PM (#4744710)
Jared Zwerling @JaredZwerling about 8 minutes ago
In addition to Anthony Morrow & Marvin Williams, Heat is in play for Kris Humphries. Also hearing Wiz, Celtics & Hornets emerging for Kris.


   1787. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 06, 2014 at 02:02 PM (#4744711)
^ A fine demonstration of why what this country really needs is a Constitutional amendment outlawing the use of any team name that doesn't end in S, or at least an S sound (the Sox exception).
   1788. andrewberg Posted: July 06, 2014 at 04:02 PM (#4744758)
Pacers shopping Hibbert. I believe that move was my #1 offseason prediction.
   1789. bibigon Posted: July 06, 2014 at 04:47 PM (#4744771)
Jeremy Lin is fine, but he's not the difference between them being the worst team in the league, and well, not.

Noel and Lin might be I suppose.
   1790. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 06, 2014 at 05:04 PM (#4744776)
And yet they didn't even have the worst record in the league last season.
   1791. steagles Posted: July 06, 2014 at 05:49 PM (#4744793)
if aaron craft could shoot as well as travis bader with the body of jakarr sampson, that'd be a pretty decent player.
   1792. steagles Posted: July 06, 2014 at 06:46 PM (#4744809)
Adrian Wojnarowski @WojYahooNBA about 15 minutes ago
Yahoo Sources: Boris Diaw reaches agreement on $22M-plus deal to stay with NBA champion Spurs. yhoo.it/TXhuya

Paul Garcia @PaulGarciaPS about 5 minutes ago
Also interesting note, Woj writes reason for 3rd year not guaranteed is just in case #Spurs go into "rebuild" mode if Duncan/Manu retire.

Marc J. Spears @SpearsNBAYahoo 1 minute ago
Ex-Lakers guard Jordan Farmar has agreed in principal to join the Clippers, a source told Yahoo.
   1793. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: July 06, 2014 at 06:55 PM (#4744811)
Twitter/the internet has really made things interesting. Earlier today, people were tracking Dan Gilbert's private jet itinerary.

Also, this:
RT @IanBegley FWIW: A UCLA senior associate athletic director tweets that Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant and Kevin Love were playing pickup at UCLA today.
   1794. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 06, 2014 at 07:08 PM (#4744813)
I can't imagine the Lakers have anything at all to trade for Love. If he's to be a Laker it'll have to be after a year somewhere else.

Also, Kobe is done. Carmelo and Love know Kobe is done, right?
   1795. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 06, 2014 at 07:20 PM (#4744820)
Farmar terms are pretty sweet, 2/4.2, yr 2 a p-opt. Clips finances are pretty tight and it was thought that he might want to stay in LA, so...
Diaw's ~22m deal is over 3 yr
   1796. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 06, 2014 at 07:45 PM (#4744836)
Take that back on Diaw, I think. Yrs 1 and 2 worth 18.5, reportedly - yr 3 partially guaranteed. So, he's either getting a ton for 2 yr - or more than 22m (yr 3 pay cut can't be that large).
   1797. kpelton Posted: July 06, 2014 at 08:48 PM (#4744857)
Maybe it's $18.5M total guaranteed? That would make about $3M of his year three salary guaranteed, which seems reasonable.
   1798. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 06, 2014 at 08:55 PM (#4744859)
That would make more sense
   1799. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 06, 2014 at 10:05 PM (#4744877)
Woj has the guarantee at 15.5m over the first 2 years.

The Bazed God is drawing interest from all over, including Atlanta. Mad towel game, but closer to replacement level than good in my book.

PJ Hairston reportedly punched a HS basketball player at a Durham Y.
   1800. MikeOberly Posted: July 06, 2014 at 10:48 PM (#4744901)
FWIW...

Chris Broussard @Chris_Broussard · 4m
Cleveland has replaced Miami as my frontrunner to land LeBron James...
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