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Wednesday, October 11, 2017

OT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, some of whom still care about baseball playoffs, but all of whom agree the Celtics gave up too much for Irving.

Here’s the thread’s top 50 players ranking.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:21 AM | 1904 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   1401. SteveF Posted: November 18, 2017 at 09:17 PM (#5578440)
Golden State has been pretty good in the third quarter this season.
   1402. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 18, 2017 at 09:24 PM (#5578441)
That lead went fast. GS 47, 76ers 15 in the 3rd quarter. A missed call or two by the officials but some basic schooling took place.
   1403. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 18, 2017 at 09:33 PM (#5578444)
Simmons had 9 assists at halftime? Good lord.
i'm more impressed by him going 7/8 from the field. now 9/11. people wonder whether he can be an efficient scorer without being able to shoot. well, he's figured out the blueprint.
   1404. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 18, 2017 at 09:37 PM (#5578446)
That lead went fast. GS 47, 76ers 15 in the 3rd quarter. A missed call or two by the officials but some basic schooling took place.
i don't think it helped that embiid broke both his own ankles and slammed head first into a stanchion about midway through the quarter. it was clearly going to #### regardless, but that didn't help.

i don't think the sixers have made a 3Per since the 1st quarter. that's not gonna do it.
   1405. SteveF Posted: November 18, 2017 at 09:53 PM (#5578448)
On the plus side, the Sixers won't have to play Golden State again this season until June.
   1406. tshipman Posted: November 18, 2017 at 10:07 PM (#5578450)
i don't think the sixers have made a 3Per since the 1st quarter. that's not gonna do it.


They went 8/12 in the first quarter and then 2/17 the rest of the way.

Kind of the textbook reason why you always want to temper your enthusiasm for the three.
   1407. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 18, 2017 at 10:33 PM (#5578451)
the sixers really need a guard who can score off the dribble and nail pull-up 3s and make sure the offense can score when simmons and embiid are off the court.

in theory, that guy should be markelle fultz, but i wasn't optimistic before the season started, and then the season happened.


i'm kinda kicking around a trade idea between PHI and DAL, where the sixers get barea and noel for holmes and TLC. noel has flopped in DAL almost as badly as okafor has here in PHI, and since noone has the money to pay him next summer, he might be willing to come back here and finish the job he started.

that sets up something like this in the summer:
trade dario saric, jerryd bayless, justin anderson, nik stauskas, anzejs pasecniks, mathias lessort (and whatever else isn't nailed down) to CLE for lebron james
resign lebron for 3/100
resign nerlens noel for 2/20
resign jj redick for 2/20
sign tony allen for the veteran minimum
sign jonah bolden for the 1 year rookie minimum

PG: simmons -> barea / mcconnell
SG: redick -> fultz
SF: lebron -> allen / korkmaz
PF: covington -> bolden
C: embiid -> noel

i think all of that is possible. doing a sign and trade for lebron would allow the sixers to keep the bird rights on noel and redick (redick technically has non-bird rights but there's not much difference for the sixers in this scenario), but it introduces a few issues. 1: the sixers become hard capped; 2: they'd still need to fit lebron's and noel's and redick's new deals under the hard cap; 3: there may need to be 2 or 3 or 4 more teams involved to accumulate enough contracts; 4: the sequencing of this is insanely complicated.

but i think it's theoretically possible. i may be on drugs.

now this:
this has been full 57i66135.
   1408. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 18, 2017 at 10:54 PM (#5578453)
We may have reached peak STEAGLES.
   1409. tshipman Posted: November 18, 2017 at 10:58 PM (#5578455)
I'm not sure whether I think trading for Noel or trading for LeBron is less realistic.
   1410. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 18, 2017 at 11:06 PM (#5578456)
We may have reached peak STEAGLES.
it's getting close, but i don't think there's enough trolling for this to be peak 57i66135 yet.
I'm not sure whether I think trading for Noel or trading for LeBron is less realistic.
from the ringer:
Nerlens Noel and the Mavericks seem headed for an ugly divorce

...Noel has the worst net rating (minus-20) of any player on their roster, and their defensive rating is 9.5 points better when he’s off the floor.

...There have been several instances this season where Carlisle has pulled Noel out of the game just to yell at him for not running the floor hard.

...Carlisle didn’t hold back when asked about Noel’s playing time after his DNP-CD against Cleveland: “Minutes have to be earned,”

...The Mavs are open to moving Noel, and a trade might make sense for everyone
and so on...
   1411. sardonic Posted: November 19, 2017 at 08:44 AM (#5578467)
This (awesomely made) highlight clip/scouting breakdown is nominally about Curry's 20 point 3rd quarter last night, but all I could notice was how rough Embiid's PnR defense was. He dropped back way to far every time on Curry, didn't raise his arms or even try to close out and silver plattered him a bunch of open jumpers. On the last play, his guy (Looney) runs out of the paint to the perimeter to set a second screen for Curry and Embiid never moves about 10 feet out of the play, as the Warriors essentially get a 3-on-2 at the top of the key with the ball in Curry's hands.
   1412. JJ1986 Posted: November 19, 2017 at 08:49 AM (#5578469)
trade dario saric, jerryd bayless, justin anderson, nik stauskas, anzejs pasecniks, mathias lessort (and whatever else isn't nailed down) to CLE for lebron james
I'm just using this year's numbers, but Bayless, Saric and Anderson make $13 million. Pasenciks would get about $1.5 if he came over. They'd have to give Stauksas about $13 million to match salaries in a trade for LeBron's $100m/3.
   1413. PJ Martinez Posted: November 19, 2017 at 09:36 AM (#5578472)
I actually have started to think that it's not 100% out of the question that LeBron could sign with the Sixers after this season. But if it does happen, I don't think it'll be some crazy sign-and-trade that allows Philly to do a bunch of other stuff. I think it'd be a straight-up full max that limits their other options (but which would obviously be worth it anyway).

Edit: to be more specific, I'm starting to think Philly is right up there with Houston, Cleveland, and Los Angeles as a possible destination. Is there any other team on that list?
   1414. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: November 19, 2017 at 10:16 AM (#5578477)
[1413] He does have a pretty good relationship with Ben Simmons. An Embiid-Bron-Saric-Covington-Simmons starting lineup would be pretty funny.
   1415. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 19, 2017 at 10:51 AM (#5578482)
I actually have started to think that it's not 100% out of the question that LeBron could sign with the Sixers after this season. But if it does happen, I don't think it'll be some crazy sign-and-trade that allows Philly to do a bunch of other stuff. I think it'd be a straight-up full max that limits their other options (but which would obviously be worth it anyway).
the biggest problem with signing lebron into cap space is that it kinda screws jj redick. of course everyone would make that trade, and even if the sixers screw redick, they have plenty of depth and picks to fill that hole one way or another.

but redick is the perfect offensive complement to lebron, simmons and embiid. defenders know they can't cheat off him. and even if they can cheat and recover, he has the playmaking ability to make them pay when they chase themselves out of position.

I'm just using this year's numbers, but Bayless, Saric and Anderson make $13 million. Pasenciks would get about $1.5 if he came over. They'd have to give Stauksas about $13 million to match salaries in a trade for LeBron's $100m/3.

i think mathias lessort can get the full MLE because he's a 2nd round pick. so that's another 5MM.

but yeah, it's not probably not enough. they'd likely have to get at least one more team involved to collect a few partially guaranteed/non-guaranteed contracts to build up enough trade equity to get lebron to a full sign and trade. that could start happening pretty soon. maybe an okafor/stauskas for nik mirotic trade.


still full 57i66135.
   1416. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 19, 2017 at 10:56 AM (#5578485)
96% win probability at halftime. this is a hell of a graph.
This (awesomely made) highlight clip/scouting breakdown is nominally about Curry's 20 point 3rd quarter last night, but all I could notice was how rough Embiid's PnR defense was. He dropped back way to far every time on Curry, didn't raise his arms or even try to close out and silver plattered him a bunch of open jumpers. On the last play, his guy (Looney) runs out of the paint to the perimeter to set a second screen for Curry and Embiid never moves about 10 feet out of the play, as the Warriors essentially get a 3-on-2 at the top of the key with the ball in Curry's hands.

according to popcorn machine, embiid was -26 in the 3rd quarter. saric was -31.
   1417. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 19, 2017 at 11:12 AM (#5578494)
i'm not gonna dive fully into the weeds on this just yet, but nikola milutinov is a name to keep in the back your head when it comes to cap circumvention.

*edit* okay, that's a lie

i remember this, from when dario saric was still negotiating to come to the sixers:
According to Article VIII Section 2 of the CBA, if a first round draft pick does not sign with the team that holds his draft rights within 3 years following the draft that he was selected in, he can negotiate a contract (of 3+ years in length) greater than 120% of the rookie scale contract, presuming the team that holds his rights has the cap space to do so.

milutinov is currently the only player in the NBA eligible for this exception. if the sixers do something like trade redick to SAS for milutinov at the trade deadline this year, they wouldn't have to worry about redick's exception, which could set up an incomprehensibly insane scenario like this:

sign redick into cap space
sign milutinov into cap space
trade saric, milutinov, bayless, etc. to CLE for lebron
sign lebron to a max contract
   1418. JJ1986 Posted: November 19, 2017 at 11:29 AM (#5578506)
milutinov is currently the only player in the NBA eligible for this exception
What about Fran Vazquez?
   1419. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 19, 2017 at 11:36 AM (#5578509)
What about Fran Vazquez?
also, 2007 sixers #1 pick petteri koponen.

if anyone tried this with vazquez or koponen, i'm 99.6% sure it'd be vetoed by silver, due to its unambiguous intent to circumvent the cap. of course, that's obviously true for milutinov, too, but at least he's young and capable enough to make this kind of thing plausible, even if everyone knows it's little more than a fig leaf.
   1420. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 19, 2017 at 01:27 PM (#5578532)
Udoh’s box numbers aren’t anything special: he scored four points, and had four rebounds, and committed three fouls, and blocked a couple of shots. But he also finished plus-31, in just 18 minutes of burn. His defensive rating in the game was 67.6!

link
   1421. Tin Angel Posted: November 19, 2017 at 01:46 PM (#5578538)
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump
Now that the three basketball players are out of China and saved from years in jail, LaVar Ball, the father of LiAngelo, is unaccepting of what I did for his son and that shoplifting is no big deal. I should have left them in jail!
9:42 AM - 19 Nov 2017
   1422. tshipman Posted: November 19, 2017 at 02:04 PM (#5578543)
Uh, defensive rating is pretty much exactly the wrong stat to use to measure 18 minutes of game action.
   1423. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 19, 2017 at 05:05 PM (#5578585)
Uh, defensive rating is pretty much exactly the wrong stat to use to measure 18 minutes of game action.
counterpoint: BTF only exists because small sample sizes can yield humorous results.

a story in three tweets:
Word at Sixers shootaround is you should anticipate getting an update on Markelle Fultz as soon as tomorrow
— Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) November 18, 2017

Per team source, the forthcoming Markelle Fultz update is a positive one.
— Jon Johnson (@jonjohnsonwip) November 18, 2017

Sixers announce that No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz is 2-3 weeks away from another revaluation as he recovers from his shoulder problem. pic.twitter.com/YngA2TlrEw
— Sam Amick (@sam_amick) November 19, 2017
   1424. jmurph Posted: November 20, 2017 at 09:45 AM (#5578691)
the biggest problem with signing lebron into cap space is that it kinda screws jj redick. of course everyone would make that trade, and even if the sixers screw redick, they have plenty of depth and picks to fill that hole one way or another.

STIGGLES holy god man the Sixers aren't going to spend 30 seconds thinking about JJ Redick when trying to sign actual good players for next year. He'll turn 34 in June and has so far been fairly poor. He might just be cooked as a starting caliber player at this point.
   1425. PJ Martinez Posted: November 20, 2017 at 09:49 AM (#5578692)
"The Rockets have won each of their past five road games by 15 points or more, tied for the longest streak in NBA history. The previous three teams to do that each won the NBA title: 2011-12 Heat, 2003-04 Pistons, 1969-70 Knicks."
   1426. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: November 20, 2017 at 10:34 AM (#5578712)
The Rockets are really good. I feel like they could really use a second Capela, or just having Capela play closer to 35 minutes a game. They don't have much interior defense without him.
   1427. aberg Posted: November 20, 2017 at 12:14 PM (#5578770)
The Rockets are really good. I feel like they could really use a second Capela, or just having Capela play closer to 35 minutes a game. They don't have much interior defense without him.


Nene has done that pretty well in the past. I agree that he hasn't looked as good this year. He's at an age where you have to wonder whether it's decline or energy preservation at this point in the season.
   1428. madvillain Posted: November 20, 2017 at 02:01 PM (#5578858)
Lauri was awesome last night.

Showed it all. Midrange, drives, beyond the arc. Did a nice job on the glass as well and for the most part defensively. He's already a good starter and is by far the best player on the Bulls. He makes the games watchable, thank goodness.
   1429. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 20, 2017 at 02:38 PM (#5578886)
I'm also starting to warm a little to Dunn. He doesn't really have that high of a ceiling, IMO, but he's much more athletic than I thought and he really is a terror defensively. If he could just develop a consistent 3 point shot (I know), he could be a Patrick Beverly type. At least the last 2 games, the overall offense appeared to operate better with him out there.
   1430. madvillain Posted: November 20, 2017 at 02:53 PM (#5578895)
he could be a Patrick Beverly type. At least the last 2 games, the overall offense appeared to operate better with him out there.


Sans the Steph Curry what the #### are you thinking behind the back pass in the closing minutes he was good last night as well. I'm where you're at with him. He's showing enough signs that he could be a solid starting PG. Defensively he has great tools and instincts so if he can just get up to adequate offensively he'll be a solid starter.

Hindsight has made fools of us all WRT to the Butler trade. It looks like a fair swap right now, even if on paper the Bulls overpaid.
   1431. Tin Angel Posted: November 20, 2017 at 02:53 PM (#5578897)
Missed this, from earlier in the month:

Kevin Arnovitz‏ @kevinarnovitz
The Phoenix Suns "7 Seconds or Less" '04-'05 team, which led the NBA in pace, would rank 25th this season.
   1432. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 20, 2017 at 02:57 PM (#5578901)
Hindsight has made fools of us all WRT to the Butler trade. It looks like a fair swap right now, even if on paper the Bulls overpaid.

Still disagree on this.
   1433. madvillain Posted: November 20, 2017 at 03:03 PM (#5578903)
Still disagree on this.


They got incredibly lucky on Lauri but hey it counts.
   1434. Tin Angel Posted: November 20, 2017 at 03:24 PM (#5578921)
Has anyone watched Bol Bol play? He just committed to Oregon, is 7'3 with a 7'9 wingspan, and is supposedly an excellent three point shooter.
   1435. DCA Posted: November 20, 2017 at 03:36 PM (#5578929)

The Phoenix Suns "7 Seconds or Less" '04-'05 team, which led the NBA in pace, would rank 25th this season.

I started following basketball with the late 80s Warriors, who were the only team that could run with the Doug Moe Nuggets. Everyone is still slow.
   1436. aberg Posted: November 20, 2017 at 03:46 PM (#5578934)
I started following basketball with the late 80s Warriors, who were the only team that could run with the Doug Moe Nuggets. Everyone is still slow.


It's closer than you think. The peak of fast pace in the 80s appears to be 85, where the Nuggets averaged 107 possessions per game and 5 teams were >104. There are 3 teams in that same range so far this year and a few others close.
   1437. DCA Posted: November 20, 2017 at 04:21 PM (#5578949)
Nuggets' peak was 1990-91 with a 113.7 pace. That's the year Paul Westhead took over and Michael Adams had that crazy year.

All 10 of the Nuggets' 1980s seasons are in the next 22 of 3-point-era pace. The slowest of these was 1989-90 at 105.4. That one year the Warriors were ahead of them.

A couple of bad teams this year are a tick below that. But they are bad! It's easy to run a fast pace when your team is bad (the Westhead team was notably terrible) because you get scored on quickly. The 1980s Nuggets weren't great but they were always respectable and made the playoffs 9 years.
   1438. aberg Posted: November 20, 2017 at 04:22 PM (#5578951)
A couple of bad teams this year are a tick below that. But they are bad!


Yes, this is very true. It's notable that there have been some good teams (Warriors, Rockets) playing very fast the last few years, but they are not as fast as the Moe Nuggets.
   1439. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 20, 2017 at 04:36 PM (#5578959)
if only there were still a hockey thread:
But for pure, spiteful miserliness, no owner can hold a candle to Chicago liquor magnate Bill Wirtz, who punished Chicago Blackhawks fans in ways great and small, for decades. Until his death in 2007, Wirtz refused to allow any Blackhawks home games to be broadcast on TV; his justification was that doing so would hurt attendance and (seriously) that it would not be fair to season ticket holders, presumably because buying a season ticket carries the expectation that one’s access to the game is exclusive. What seems inexplicable at first and also second glance may in fact offer a window onto Wirtz’s worldview—whatever else he was, he was also the sort of man who would fly into a rage upon learning that, having paid good money for his ticket, he would not be the only person able to see the game.

   1440. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 20, 2017 at 04:59 PM (#5578977)
They got incredibly lucky on Lauri but hey it counts.

Yes, it counts that they now have one prospect who might one day maybe be good enough to be an All Star. I'm not convinced he'll ever be as good as Jimmy at his best; the best I can say about the trade now that it's not obviously a complete disaster.
   1441. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 20, 2017 at 05:00 PM (#5578980)
if only there were still a hockey thread:

The 10 years since Dollar Bill's death have been pretty damn rewarding.
   1442. madvillain Posted: November 20, 2017 at 06:17 PM (#5579057)
Yes, it counts that they now have one prospect who might one day maybe be good enough to be an All Star. I'm not convinced he'll ever be as good as Jimmy at his best; the best I can say about the trade now that it's not obviously a complete disaster.


Fair enough but Lauri should get some more hype...

If Lauri somehow keeps this up he's going to have one of the best rookie years of all time scoring wise. He's got a TS of 58% on 12 shots a game and 21% usage. His numbers match up pretty nicely with Steph Curry's rookie season. Same usage, almost the same points per 36 (18.1 for Lauri, 17.6 for Steph) and almost the same TS%. Curry shot better from deep but Lauri makes up for it with much more efficient scoring inside the arc. Their FT rate is very similar as well but Lauri is getting to a line a little more than rookie Steph.

Obviously he could hit the rookie wall but if he keeps this up he'll be on a trajectory to be one of the best scorers in the league with a few years experience.
   1443. Athletic Supporter wants to move your money around Posted: November 20, 2017 at 06:25 PM (#5579064)
Knicks fans, can you pass the hose over to that guy?
   1444. madvillain Posted: November 20, 2017 at 06:47 PM (#5579071)
   1445. tshipman Posted: November 20, 2017 at 08:30 PM (#5579125)
If Lauri somehow keeps this up he's going to have one of the best rookie years of all time scoring wise. He's got a TS of 58% on 12 shots a game and 21% usage. His numbers match up pretty nicely with Steph Curry's rookie season. Same usage, almost the same points per 36 (18.1 for Lauri, 17.6 for Steph) and almost the same TS%. Curry shot better from deep but Lauri makes up for it with much more efficient scoring inside the arc. Their FT rate is very similar as well but Lauri is getting to a line a little more than rookie Steph.

Obviously he could hit the rookie wall but if he keeps this up he'll be on a trajectory to be one of the best scorers in the league with a few years experience.


The primary difference, of course, is that Curry was assisted on about 40% of his attempts, and Markkanen has been assisted on over 70% (and all but one of his 3pers).

So while it was easy to see how Curry could add usage while maintaining efficiency, it is very difficult to see how Markkanen can do the same without significant improvement.
   1446. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 20, 2017 at 08:38 PM (#5579130)
how can ben simmons contribute in the half court if he can't shoot?

well, he just backed up to half court, got a full head of steam, took a pass at the 3P line in rhythm, drove into the paint, stopped on a dime, pump faked, stepped through 2 defenders and put a layup in off the glass.

that'll work.


and here's the video.
   1447. JC in DC Posted: November 20, 2017 at 08:47 PM (#5579131)
Cavs in full "we ain't done yet," mode.
   1448. madvillain Posted: November 20, 2017 at 09:30 PM (#5579146)
So while it was easy to see how Curry could add usage while maintaining efficiency, it is very difficult to see how Markkanen can do the same without significant improvement.


Just wait until they get a PG that can find him in the post more often. We'll see. I'd be shocked if he's not a 22-25PPG scorer in his third year.
   1449. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 20, 2017 at 09:35 PM (#5579147)
i think the sixers might be as good as i think they are.

embiid is a national treasure.
   1450. JC in DC Posted: November 20, 2017 at 09:47 PM (#5579154)
That's a great clip, STIG.

Speaking of Clips. They suck. Knicks blowing them out. They don't defend. Rivers is goddawful.
   1451. jmurph Posted: November 20, 2017 at 09:51 PM (#5579159)
Speaking of supremely talented young players, Wiggins with his 2nd straight night of 1s and 2s in the rebounding/assist columns (2 boards and 1 assist last night, the reverse tonight). It's genuinely fascinating to me how much time he can spend on the court while doing so little other than scoring (fairly inefficiently at that).
   1452. madvillain Posted: November 20, 2017 at 09:58 PM (#5579168)
I was watching that game, have the sixers announcers always been so cocky 'cause they've kinda sucked for awhile and those guys were acting like they were the spurs or something most of the game.
   1453. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: November 20, 2017 at 10:04 PM (#5579171)
In news that will surely rock the thread, David Lee has officially retired.
   1454. JC in DC Posted: November 20, 2017 at 10:08 PM (#5579172)
I tried to watch some of the OKC-Pelicans game. It's terrible. Both teams look out of sorts. No offensive flow at all, simple problems handling the ball and spacing. An ugly game. And Cousins got bounced early.
   1455. jmurph Posted: November 20, 2017 at 10:18 PM (#5579177)
Harrison Barnes is having a nice scoring night for Dallas, prompting me to check his season stats to see if he's finally putting it together. He is... not. He is not putting it together.

Boston is gonna go ahead and lose to the worst team in the league after winning 15 straight. NBA action!
   1456. jmurph Posted: November 20, 2017 at 10:27 PM (#5579180)
Marcus Smart has been so bad tonight. 1-9 from three. Open for a reason, Marcus.
   1457. JC in DC Posted: November 20, 2017 at 10:29 PM (#5579181)
Melo is 1-8 from there.
   1458. Tin Angel Posted: November 20, 2017 at 10:46 PM (#5579192)
DeMarcus Cousins with the obviously intentional elbow to Westbrook's head.
   1459. jmurph Posted: November 20, 2017 at 11:06 PM (#5579201)
Alright fine I'm willing to acknowledge they're never going to lose again.
   1460. Fourth True Outcome Posted: November 20, 2017 at 11:08 PM (#5579202)
Marcus Smart has been so bad tonight. 1-9 from three. Open for a reason, Marcus.

Smart ended up 3/15 on the night for 12 points, but put up a +15. In other words, a standard Marcus Smart night.
   1461. Athletic Supporter wants to move your money around Posted: November 20, 2017 at 11:09 PM (#5579203)

DeMarcus Cousins with the obviously intentional elbow to Westbrook's head.


This was ... not a good look.
   1462. tshipman Posted: November 20, 2017 at 11:44 PM (#5579210)
Just wait until they get a PG that can find him in the post more often. We'll see. I'd be shocked if he's not a 22-25PPG scorer in his third year.


Him and Trey Burke.
   1463. PJ Martinez Posted: November 21, 2017 at 12:29 AM (#5579216)
Kyrie Irving in final 5 min and score within 5 this season:
- 38 mins
- 65 pts
- 24-39 FG
- 13-16 FT
- 11 drawn fouls
- 32 pts in the paint
- 10 assists
- 0 turnovers
- Plus-minus of +40
   1464. SteveF Posted: November 21, 2017 at 12:32 AM (#5579217)
You can only know how good a player Kyrie is by not watching him play.
   1465. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 21, 2017 at 08:59 AM (#5579263)
from preseason (username redacted ... you're welcome, PASTE):
2818. *USERNAME REDACTED* Posted: October 09, 2017 at 10:13 PM (#5548463)
Simmons comes to the NBA already an elite, polished passer. Finishing around the rim and generally scoring efficiently when defenses play off him looking for the pass--that's the stuff it's going to take him a couple years to learn. STIGGLES' eternal dreams aside, he's not that once or twice a decade player who can come in and dominate in the NBA as a rookie. He's going to make some disgusting highlight reel passes to a cutting Fultz or a wide open Redick, though.

19, 9, 8, 2 and 1 on 52% shooting is pretty dominant, imo, and he's 13th in BPM.

and then there's this dumbass:

2819. *OWN USERNAME REDACTED* Posted: October 09, 2017 at 10:40 PM (#5548486)
and lastly, ben simmons. i'm disappointed by how little variety he's shown as a scorer. i knew he can't shoot, but i wanted to see more explosion from him in the paint. i spent the better part of a decade watching thaddeus young abuse forwards in the post, and i thought simmons had that element in his game. so far as i can tell, he's more interested in bullying smaller defenders than he is in sloughing bigger ones. that's not ideal.

i did not think simmons would be able to score like this. he's going straight to the rim a lot more often than he did in the preseason, and his touch on layups, floaters, hooks and push shots around the paint is pretty uncanny. he's swishing shots that most players couldn't make 20% of the time in a workout against a chair; high arcing, one-handed, running, fadeaway skyhooks over 3 defenders. these are some terrible shots, but he's making them at a good rate and they look so pretty.
   1466. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 21, 2017 at 09:15 AM (#5579270)
Michael P @MP_Trey
So @warriors Klay Thompson @KlayThompson just casually getting interviewed on local NY News @fox5ny talking about building scaffolding...
pic.twitter.com/Zhiwrw0in0
   1467. jmurph Posted: November 21, 2017 at 09:26 AM (#5579274)
I've barely seen the Pistons play this year, can someone explain Avery Bradley's season to me? He's somehow scoring 17.2 a game and shooting 44% from 3 on 4.8 attempts, yet the advanced stats continue to hate him.
   1468. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: November 21, 2017 at 10:34 AM (#5579313)
I don't think anyone official has said anything about it, but Giannis must be nursing an injury. He's not been himself the past couple games--more passive and more picking his spots on both sides of the ball and he's missing shots from the line and around the rim. Something's wrong.

I continue to think the Bucks need a new coach if they're going to reach the next level. It's really hard for a basketball ignoramus like myself to describe, but the team just... doesn't play sharply or consistently. It's a lot of little things. They get caught flatfooted a little too much, they're late on closeouts a little too often, they stand around a little more than is healthy in the modern NBA on both sides of the ball. Bledsoe fills a huge need for them, but... a there is no way a contender should be getting blown out by the 2-15 Mavericks when the Mavs are on the back end of a back-to-back, not even if Giannis IS gimpy.

I realize most coaches are just kind of OK (by the extremely high standards of NBA coaching), Kidd is probably in this category, it's really hard to find and hire Brad Stevens, and so if they fire Kidd his replacement will probably not be a noteworthy improvement and there's a risk he'll be worse. I just can't shake the feeling this team is capable of so much more than they're accomplishing right now.
   1469. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 21, 2017 at 10:52 AM (#5579331)
I continue to think the Bucks need a new coach if they're going to reach the next level. It's really hard for a basketball ignoramus like myself to describe, but the team just... doesn't play sharply or consistently. It's a lot of little things. They get caught flatfooted a little too much, they're late on closeouts a little too often, they stand around a little more than is healthy in the modern NBA on both sides of the ball. Bledsoe fills a huge need for them, but... a there is no way a contender should be getting blown out by the 2-15 Mavericks when the Mavs are on the back end of a back-to-back, not even if Giannis IS gimpy.

I realize most coaches are just kind of OK (by the extremely high standards of NBA coaching), Kidd is probably in this category, it's really hard to find and hire Brad Stevens, and so if they fire Kidd his replacement will probably not be a noteworthy improvement and there's a risk he'll be worse. I just can't shake the feeling this team is capable of so much more than they're accomplishing right now.
it's very likely that kidd is holding them back. the only part of their offense that works is iso-giannis, and their defense is massively underperforming their talent level.

the question is who can you hire mid-season that'll make an appreciable difference? i don't think the NBA allows you to poach assistants, so your best options are probably media guys like mchale, collins and jackson, which...is not ideal. maybe kurt rambis or dave blatt or randy wittman? still not ideal.
   1470. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: November 21, 2017 at 10:52 AM (#5579333)
a there is no way a contender should be getting blown out by the 2-15 Mavericks when the Mavs are on the back end of a back-to-back, not even if Giannis IS gimpy.

They're not a contender, they're a young, inconsistent team.

I'm not sold on Kidd either, but a couple of years ago he showed some good promise. You look at the guys who played last night vs. Washington, they're giving a lot of minutes to end-of-bench guys. I think Snell is like a 9th or 10th man, Henson is just ok. Both start. DeAndrew Liggins and Payton look to be two of the actual rotation players, and both should probably be in the G League. They suck at rebounding, primarily because Snell doesn't rebound at all.

Their spacing still isn't great and Bledsoe doesn't really fix that. Thon Maker has a lot of promise, but isn't actually good yet.
   1471. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: November 21, 2017 at 11:00 AM (#5579340)
Oh no, I'm not suggesting they should fire Kidd now. They're not winning the title (or even the East) this year even if Gregg Popovich abruptly quits San Antonio and signs on in Milwaukee. But Kidd's been there for years now and they just aren't a well coached team. I think this coming offseason is the appropriate time to make a change.

Thon Maker has a lot of promise, but isn't actually good yet.


This is very true. But he does need to play if you want him to improve. Henson is pretty bad though.

e: Malcolm Brogdon is a pretty damn good player that they got in the second round last year, though, and Kidd gets a lot of credit for that in medialand. Obviously we are in no position to know to what extent Kidd taught Brogdon how to be an NBA player and have to take medialand's word for it. But being able to teach a teachable youngster how to be an NBA point guard and being able to coach an NBA team are different skills.

Boston isn't going anywhere soon, but Cleveland will be high in the lottery next year, Toronto is getting old and Washington is kind of stuck as a not-quite-good-enough team. There's a real opportunity for Milwaukee to jump into real contenderdom very soon and have a multi-year run there, if they can find the right coach and make a couple of sharp roster moves.
   1472. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 21, 2017 at 11:03 AM (#5579345)
Embiid’s brand of disrespect is so palatable because, as he puts it in the interview above, it is first and foremost “about having fun.” This is an incredibly difficult tightrope to walk; lean too far in one direction you risk becoming a raging nut that everyone rolls their eyes at, lean the other way and you risk becoming a dreaded “fake tough guy.” Thus far Embiid has managed to become one of the rarest things in basketball: a guy who talks as much #### as anyone but is actually Not Mad. It really is funny to him! He really is laughing!

embiid went full 57i66135

again: video.
   1473. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 21, 2017 at 11:19 AM (#5579356)
The first video got a 404.

Embiid and Mitchell embraced and talked at the end of the game, FWIW.
   1474. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: November 21, 2017 at 11:37 AM (#5579368)
I was going to say Embiid's flop was weak, but when he's openly admitting to it it's kind of endearing:
@DerekBodnerNBA
Follow Follow @DerekBodnerNBA
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Embiid on the Donovan Mitchell technical:
"I blocked his shot and I said something to him, and then he just got up and kind of fake shoved me and I flopped. Then he got a technical for it."
   1475. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 21, 2017 at 11:44 AM (#5579375)
It bears mentioning again that Ball is really a generational cutter, possessing elite recognition ability via time and space. He can read defenses, identify weaknesses, process this information quickly and most importantly actually exploit these weaknesses finishing plays. Of all the skills he showed at UCLA, cutting/awareness moving off the ball was his most impressive attribute (to get an idea for frequency, the first three clips all occurred against one team, Kent State, in the NCAA Tournament):

We see the total package in terms of understanding as a cutter: pointing out to a teammate a back screen opportunity after reading the defense, darting backdoor when his defender either fell asleep or over-extended on the perimeter, the timing to allow a teammate to clear out the basket area before performing his cut, and the explosiveness to elevate off two feet in space. I could have written 3,000 words on Ball’s cutting prowess before the draft last year, and it’s unsurprising that with cutting being one of the best indicators for basketball intelligence Ball has it in spades.

ball and simmons would have been basketball nirvana and it sucks that we will probably never see it.
The first video got a 404.
got caught by the swear filter. this one should work.
   1476. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 21, 2017 at 12:05 PM (#5579395)
Just wait until they get a PG that can find him in the post more often. We'll see. I'd be shocked if he's not a 22-25PPG scorer in his third year.

I'm in wait and see mode on his defense - but he's never going to be a rim protector. He's a good enough rebounder, but there's really nothing else in his game that's noteworthy. After 14 (and only 14 games), sure, I'm pleasantly surprised. You know who looks like the best comp on that list you posted though, right?

Brook Lopez.
   1477. madvillain Posted: November 21, 2017 at 02:01 PM (#5579541)
Him and Trey Burke.


It's funny when people make fun of predictions. Predictions are hard even for the pros otherwise Burke wouldn't have gone 9th, would he? If you want to go down this lane and be a douche go ahead. This entire thread is down to about a dozen people making the same points over and over -- at this point I'll just see myself out. The OTP thread is vastly more interesting for that anyways.
   1478. jmurph Posted: November 21, 2017 at 02:41 PM (#5579583)
Whoa, top prospect Michael Porter Jr., Missouri, is apparently going to miss the season recovering from back surgery. Wasn't there all kinds of coaching carousel shenanigans involved in getting him to Missouri? I don't really follow the college game closely.
   1479. MHS Posted: November 21, 2017 at 02:44 PM (#5579585)
Really interesting Dunc'd on pod cast last night/this morning wit Dylan Murphy. I hadn't heard of him before but I thought he was an interesting guest.
   1480. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 21, 2017 at 02:50 PM (#5579590)
Whoa, top prospect Michael Porter Jr., Missouri, is apparently going to miss the season recovering from back surgery. Wasn't there all kinds of coaching carousel shenanigans involved in getting him to Missouri? I don't really follow the college game closely.
he's a sixer. it's destiny. and he's a good fit.
   1481. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 21, 2017 at 03:06 PM (#5579613)
You think he'll still be available at pick #30?
   1482. aberg Posted: November 21, 2017 at 03:24 PM (#5579632)
Whoa, top prospect Michael Porter Jr., Missouri, is apparently going to miss the season recovering from back surgery. Wasn't there all kinds of coaching carousel shenanigans involved in getting him to Missouri? I don't really follow the college game closely.


Porter's dad was an assistant on the Mizzou women's team when Michael Jr. was in HS. Lorenzo Romar hired his dad to be an assistant at UW before Jr's senior year of high school (shady, but they had a long past and were very close). The Porters (including Jr's 4* prospect younger brother) relocated to Seattle and he played at Nathan Hale, which is my neighborhood school. Shortly after the relocation, Brandon Roy was hired to coach Nathan Hale, which had never been any good at basketball. They crushed everyone, won the state title, and were ranked as maybe the best HS team in the country. The team also included 4* PG PJ Fuller from the class of '19 and Marjon Beauchamp, who is a top national recruit from the class of 2020. Both of those guys transferred to perennial powerhouse Garfield when Roy took the job there this year.

Meanwhile, Romar turned in one of the worst coaching performances I have ever seen. The team went 2-16 in the Pac 12 despite having a decent amount of talent, headlined by Markelle Fultz. He was also flanked by Noah Dickerson, who was a national top 100 recruit and has been a revelation this year, as well as a handful of other guys rated 4* out of high school. Romar was rightly fired for his abysmal performance. Many UW fans were upset that he would be gone and the national top 5 recruiting class would go with him. In the end, new coach Mike Hopkins retained Jaylen Nowell (from the aforementioned Garfield), who looks like a star. He lost both Porter brothers after the younger reclassified into the '17 class, and they both went with their dad, who got a gig at Mizzou. They lost another top 100 guard named Daejon Davis to Stanford. Hopkins picked up the pieces pretty nicely and brought in Hameir Wright, a combo forward who reclassified late, and Naz Carter, nephew of Jay Z, both from the east coast. He signed two local PGs, one of whom never got his eligibility. The other (also named Porter) is playing, but is not good. Romar landed at Arizona, who you may recall is at the center of a recruiting scandal of their own.

Long story short, Washington very nearly retained Romar to keep Michael Porter Jr, who would end up not playing a college basketball game. That's why it is not smart to build a program only on recruiting, and why Romar is no longer here.
   1483. jmurph Posted: November 21, 2017 at 03:36 PM (#5579643)
Whoa, thanks for the details Berg (incidentally I used to work a mile or so away from Nathan Hale, but this was a million years ago).
   1484. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 21, 2017 at 03:55 PM (#5579657)
He was one of the top 3 or 4 prospects for next year, could have been the first pick. Back problems though, ugh.
   1485. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: November 21, 2017 at 04:27 PM (#5579695)
madvillain, I hope you don't leave the thread. I enjoy everyone's contributions here. We all have our little ticks - you're very optimistic about Michigan alumni and young Chicago players, just like tship is weirdly defensive of Golden State's legacy any time they're getting challenged in a game or series, and just like that's probably all true about me as it pertains to the Spurs and David Robinson's legacy.
   1486. aberg Posted: November 21, 2017 at 04:34 PM (#5579707)
madvillain, I hope you don't leave the thread. I enjoy everyone's contributions here. We all have our little ticks - you're very optimistic about Michigan alumni and young Chicago players, just like tship is weirdly defensive of Golden State's legacy any time they're getting challenged in a game or series, and just like that's probably all true about me as it pertains to the Spurs and David Robinson's legacy.


I still haven't accepted that Kobe's 5 rings are more impressive than KG's 1.
   1487. jmurph Posted: November 21, 2017 at 04:37 PM (#5579710)
And I personally believe that Boston will never lose another game. But that actually might be different because it's just a fact whereas you guys have weird biases?
   1488. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 21, 2017 at 05:01 PM (#5579749)
madvillain, I hope you don't leave the thread. I enjoy everyone's contributions here. We all have our little ticks - you're very optimistic about Michigan alumni and young Chicago players, just like tship is weirdly defensive of Golden State's legacy any time they're getting challenged in a game or series, and just like that's probably all true about me as it pertains to the Spurs and David Robinson's legacy.

yeah, we're all fans here. my posts tend to be very level headed and neutral (to the point that i'm not even sure if anyone knows i root for the sixers), but i try not to judge anyone else too harshly for their homerism, even though it's really annoying and i actually think it detracts from the thread when post after post after post is just mind-numbingly inane rosterbation fantasies that have literally zero chance of happening.

but i digress.
   1489. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: November 21, 2017 at 05:06 PM (#5579756)
You think he'll still be available at pick #30?
the sixers will have the lakers pick as long as it's not 2-5, so if they keep that pick and if porter starts dropping, i hope they'd make another move like they did this year for fultz.
   1490. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: November 21, 2017 at 06:06 PM (#5579820)
Shams:
Denver All-Star forward Paul Millsap will undergo surgery on his left wrist and be sidelined indefinitely, league sources say.
   1491. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 21, 2017 at 06:11 PM (#5579823)
Wait, why are people upset?
   1492. aberg Posted: November 21, 2017 at 06:30 PM (#5579835)
Wait, why are people upset?


Because you rated Kareem over MJ. It's all your fault.
   1493. tshipman Posted: November 21, 2017 at 06:31 PM (#5579836)
madvillain, I hope you don't leave the thread. I enjoy everyone's contributions here. We all have our little ticks - you're very optimistic about Michigan alumni and young Chicago players, just like tship is weirdly defensive of Golden State's legacy any time they're getting challenged in a game or series, and just like that's probably all true about me as it pertains to the Spurs and David Robinson's legacy.


My takeaway here is that I'm not posting enough about 3p randomness if it isn't the first thing people think about me.

Also: sorry if it came across badly, Madvillian. I was intending to tease about someone that you were irrationally exuberant about before, not drive you away.
   1494. aberg Posted: November 21, 2017 at 06:34 PM (#5579837)
I read on Twitter today that 75% of athletes who have Michael Porter's condition go on to have lingering future back problems. Not a good stat.
   1495. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: November 21, 2017 at 09:15 PM (#5579876)
I'm pretty curious about how the Knicks play tomorrow. Toronto smoked them up north, and Pascal Siakam, who is an interesting talent, smothered Porzingis defensively. I'm basically rooting for the Knicks to have a 42-40 type season. It may seem counterproductive to hope for a low playoff seed opposed to a high draft pick, but this team needs to restore some credibility with both fans and potential free agent targets. The higher they can climb over .500 right now the better, because the schedule is much tougher in December and January. One of the interesting things I've noticed having the chance to watch McDermott play on a daily basis is that he's pretty excellent cutting toward the rim and moving without the ball on offense. I had always thought of him as just a three-type point shooter. He's got a pretty solid offensive game and is trying on defense. Wouldn't be surprised to see him have some success coming off the bench for a few years. Enes Kanter has underrated footwork under the rim. Though his defense can be described as pitiful at moments. Overall its been a fun start, and we'll see if they keep it going or totally meltdown.
   1496. sardonic Posted: November 21, 2017 at 09:57 PM (#5579889)
Klay Thompson is low key one of the best interviews in the game. Apparently while in NY he gave a thoughtful interview to Fox on one of the most pressing issues of our day. Asked about it later at practice, he told reporters that "unfortunately people got hurt" and he just wanted to "give his opinion" and be "an active citizen in the community."
   1497. PJ Martinez Posted: November 21, 2017 at 11:22 PM (#5579912)
Love that. Meanwhile, I'm trying to discern whether Kyrie Irving just has an unusual way of putting things, or if he's a genuinely odd dude. To wit: "I have family members who come from knowing energy, and it was passed along to me."
   1498. tshipman Posted: November 22, 2017 at 12:23 AM (#5579950)
Is Julius Randle good? Like, does he fit on a playoff team?

I genuinely cannot answer this, and I am curious about other peoples' opinions.
   1499. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 22, 2017 at 12:24 AM (#5579952)
Because you rated Kareem over MJ. It's all your fault.
He had it coming.
   1500. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: November 22, 2017 at 08:29 AM (#5579986)
Kyrie looks more like the NBA's Tom Cruise every day.

I like Julius Randle. Not as a max player or anything, but sure, he has a place in a contender's rotation. Dude has some skills and plays with an edge.
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