Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

OT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, some of whom still care about baseball playoffs, but all of whom agree the Celtics gave up too much for Irving.

Here’s the thread’s top 50 players ranking.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:21 AM | 3977 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 29 of 40 pages ‹ First  < 27 28 29 30 31 >  Last ›
   2801. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 22, 2018 at 10:24 PM (#5611447)
Then why do you keep trying to trade him all the damn time?

boredom.

also, replacement level at PF is very high and the sixers have two other starters (simmons and covington) who could credibly handle starting there.
Very few! but it doesn't matter. Dario Saric is 24 and has roughly a zero percent chance to be a star in this league.

A random first round pick, even if it comes in the 20's, has a shot to pick up a star. Kyle Kuzma this year, Clint Capela a few years ago.

saric's upside is something like 20, 8 and 5 on 50/40/90 shooting. maybe that's not a star, but it's damn close.
   2802. Tin Angel Posted: January 22, 2018 at 10:31 PM (#5611453)
The Windhurst stuff on Thomas just seems so mean-spirited, planted, and BS. The Cavs are frustrated with him? After 7 games? I'm no fan of the Bilbo Thomas, but he's not their problem.


Adrian Wojnarowski‏@wojespn
The Cleveland Cavaliers held an emotional team meeting prior to Monday’s practice, where several players challenged the legitimacy of Kevin Love leaving OKC loss on Saturday ill and missing Sunday’s practice, league sources tell ESPN.
   2803. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: January 22, 2018 at 10:33 PM (#5611454)
Since my post, bulls have blown their 16 point lead.


Pretty crazy end of regulation there.
   2804. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: January 22, 2018 at 10:46 PM (#5611457)
Headed to double OT. Pretty shoddy execution all over the place.
   2805. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: January 22, 2018 at 10:53 PM (#5611459)
The Cleveland Cavaliers held an emotional team meeting prior to Monday’s practice, where several players challenged the legitimacy of Kevin Love leaving OKC loss on Saturday ill and missing Sunday’s practice, league sources tell ESPN.


This is serious. On the rare occasion that the Cavaliers have a practice, you don't want to miss it.
   2806. aberg Posted: January 22, 2018 at 11:03 PM (#5611465)
Yeah, after missing practice yesterday, Love is now 0/1 on the year.
   2807. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:25 AM (#5611495)
saric's upside is something like 20, 8 and 5 on 50/40/90 shooting. maybe that's not a star, but it's damn close.


If I thought that was at all possible for Saric, I wouldn't have written anything like what I wrote about him.

There's absolutely zero chance that Saric goes for 20 ppg on 50/40/90. I mean, maybe he gets hurt after like 3 games, so he finishes with that line after getting lucky. But no.
   2808. Tin Angel Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:52 AM (#5611499)
Laugh it up guys. But coach Lue had probably made up a really cool new play to work on.
   2809. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:19 AM (#5611502)
Fun fact: only Durant, Curry, Dirk, and Bird have ever averaged 20 on 50/40/90 shooting. Only Bird also had 8 rebounds and 5 assists.
   2810. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:32 AM (#5611503)
saric's upside is something like 20, 8 and 5 on 50/40/90 shooting. maybe that's not a star, but it's damn close.
If that's his upside, then his upside is a first-ballot induction into the Hall of Fame.
   2811. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:59 AM (#5611509)
If I thought that was at all possible for Saric, I wouldn't have written anything like what I wrote about him.

There's absolutely zero chance that Saric goes for 20 ppg on 50/40/90. I mean, maybe he gets hurt after like 3 games, so he finishes with that line after getting lucky. But no.

he's already shooting 88% from the FT line.
40+% from the arc is easily attainable.
he averaged 18 PPG over the last two months last year and he's averaging 16 PPG in his last 24 games this year.

the key is that he gets over 50% FG% on ~25% usage. putting aside the likelihood of that particular constellation of rounded numbers occurring, the more important distinction is that he's only a few shades away from getting there already. over his last 24 games, he's at 47/36/90 on 21% usage. even if he falls short of 50/40/90, the broader point about his upside still applies.
If that's his upside, then his upside is a first-ballot induction into the Hall of Fame.
you can say that about nearly everyone who gets drafted in the lottery.
   2812. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: January 23, 2018 at 08:22 AM (#5611532)
The Cavs are a weird organization. What I find really interesting, though, is Derek Rose. Last year Chief Triangle spends the year ripping Melo and Porzingis while Derek Rose jumps the team for a couple of days and nothing happens. Now Rose is in Cleveland, takes a sabbatical to decide if he still wants to play, is welcomed back with not a word spoken against him and IT and Love are getting ripped. Derek Rose is a svengali.
   2813. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2018 at 09:34 AM (#5611569)
Derek Rose is a svengali.

Well he's certainly earned the benefit of the doubt with his upstanding behavior off the court, so that's probably it.
   2814. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5611586)
I was browsing BK-REF, and LeBron has only been a league leader three times (scoring once, and minutes played twice). I know his calling card is versatility, but that was surprisingly low to me.

Also, did you know Michael Jordan once had to wear a generic #12 Bulls jersey when his own was stolen?

   2815. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5611614)
the key is that he gets over 50% FG% on ~25% usage. putting aside the likelihood of that particular constellation of rounded numbers occurring, the more important distinction is that he's only a few shades away from getting there already. over his last 24 games, he's at 47/36/90 on 21% usage. even if he falls short of 50/40/90, the broader point about his upside still applies.


The problem that Saric has is that he can't create his own shot efficiently. He's a bad midrange shooter, and can't get to the rim on his own. 100% of his 3pers and 64% of his 2pers are assisted.

There's no path for him to up his usage while remaining efficient.

Compare him to the guys who have done it: Durant, Curry, Dirk and Bird. All of them created their own shot efficiently. They had counters to counters.

Further, it's gotten harder not easier, to go 50/40/90. Because guys take more 3pers now, you have to shoot a higher percentage to get to the same place. In Bird's 50/40/90 year, he only shot 55% from 2. Curry had to shoot 57% from 2.
   2816. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:05 AM (#5611645)
Why would Memphis ever do that deal, where they pick up dead money like Jerryd Bayless when they can just deal Tyreke for a first?

Dario Saric is worth less than random first round pick. He's 24 and a below average starter. . . and has roughly a zero percent chance to be a star in this league.

A random first round pick, even if it comes in the 20's, has a shot to pick up a star. Kyle Kuzma this year, Clint Capela a few years ago.

Perhaps Memphis's GM would value Saric more highly than a late first round pick, which projects to be a substantially worse player than Saric but could conceivably be better than him. He is 23, not 24, and he's already an average NBA player with a broad base of skills though no signature strength. That's a solid foundation to build on. I expect that his shooting and AST/TO will improve, as I would expect from most young players and especially those with a high FT% and a high AST% relative to position.

Are you saying that Kyle Kuzma is a likely star, but there's zero chance Saric is a star? If so, that doesn't make sense to me. I think it's an interesting question as to which player you'd rather have long-term. Anyone have a strong opinion on that?

As for Saric's realistic upside, I'd peg it at Detlef Schrempf or Larry Johnson--a fringe All-Star, or perennial top-50 guy, who does pretty much everything well offensively and doesn't hurt you defensively.
   2817. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:06 AM (#5611646)
All these unhappy player type stories (Lillard, Cavs, Wizards) made me decide to type out a post speculating which teams fan-bases are (should be) happy/sad with how this season has played out so far in absolute terms and relative to reasonable expectations. I think going into this exercise there's going to be a lot of sad instead of happy. This is a stupid exercise:

Happy: Boston, Toronto, Miami, Indiana, Philadelphia, Golden State, Houston, Minnesota, New Orleans
Sad: Cleveland, Washington, Milwaukee, Detroit, Charlotte, Orlando, Portland, Denver, Utah, Sacramento
Not Sure: Brooklyn, Chicago, Atlanta, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Clippers, Lakers, Memphis, Dallas

I follow Detroit and the record is reasonable for pre-season expectations, but the recent returns put them into sadness. Pelicans record isn't amazing, but they are trending the right way so moved into happy.

I guess the Happy contingent is bigger than I thought.

EDIT - Think should move Chicago into happy but still not sure on the others.
   2818. JJ1986 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5611653)
I'd definitely have Memphis as sad. Brooklyn is more happy than sad.
   2819. . . . . . . Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:21 AM (#5611660)
You'll note how 2817 correctly describes Knicks fans as having lost the capacity to feel.
   2820. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5611664)
Definitely a bad loss for the Bulls. They were actually up 18 in the 4th, and Holliday was shooting 3 FTs down 2 with 0.3 left on the clock in the 4th; he made the first 2 but missed the 3rd.

It was a terribly officiating game on both sides, and both DMC and AD were on the verge of completely losing their ####. In fact, I'm surprised neither ended up doing anything crazy and getting kicked out (AD eventually fouled out; I wonder if DMC has rubbed off an AD at all here). DMC put up a ridiculous line last night - 44/24/10 - something that either KAJ or Wilt last did (depending on who did the research).
   2821. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5611665)
Thank you for catching the Knicks. I think I had them in happy and then meant to put them in Not Sure. I'm really Not Sure on them.

Agree on Memphis sad and Brooklyn happy.
   2822. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5611671)
I think Spurs are tentatively sad with a chance for a turnaround. The feeling I get from Clippers fans is that they're pretty happy. Chris Paul is great but he's such a joy suck that everyone involved with the Clippers just seems happier without him around.
   2823. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5611688)
Are you saying that Kyle Kuzma is a likely star, but there's zero chance Saric is a star? If so, that doesn't make sense to me. I think it's an interesting question as to which player you'd rather have long-term. Anyone have a strong opinion on that?


Yes. To be a star in the NBA, you need to be able to create efficient offense.

If you're finishing plays for other players, you're a role player, not a star.
   2824. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:53 AM (#5611701)
I think it's possible Kuzma and Saric both end up having the same value as players but Kuzma being more of a "star" because Kuzma is better at the things that make you famous than Saric. I'd guess they'll both be in the league for a long time and Kuzma will be a long-time Laker while Saric will bounce from team to team.
   2825. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:56 AM (#5611703)
BTW, how happy are the Wizards right now that everyone is talking about the Cavs and Spurs? They have been wretched the last couple of weeks.
   2826. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: January 23, 2018 at 12:15 PM (#5611714)
EDIT - Think should move Chicago into happy but still not sure on the others.

Yeah, after the horrible last couple of years and this past offseason, Bulls were solidly in the sad camp. After the first 1/4 of the season, they were still there. I'm shocked how quickly I've gone from pissed and dejected to happy/optimistic.
   2827. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5611754)
The problem that Saric has is that he can't create his own shot efficiently. He's a bad midrange shooter, and can't get to the rim on his own. 100% of his 3pers and 64% of his 2pers are assisted.

There's no path for him to up his usage while remaining efficient.

you're way too confident in that opinion.


saric averages 2 ORB per game. he takes 5 3PAs per game. he gets shots at the rim off cuts, screens, post ups, and pick and rolling. he'll also take most of the sixers' technical FTs when redick is on the bench/off the roster. if he can steal paul pierce's mid-range step back (including the pump fake to draw fouls) and add more corner 3s (which are only 11% of his 3PAs this year), he'll have all the tools he needs. the key is in putting it together.

that's obviously not easy, but it's excessively pessimistic to write off all possibility of it happening.
   2828. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5611768)
Yeah, after the horrible last couple of years and this past offseason, Bulls were solidly in the sad camp. After the first 1/4 of the season, they were still there. I'm shocked how quickly I've gone from pissed and dejected to happy/optimistic.


Lauri banging on the glass with Cousins and AD last night was a thing of beauty. Everything about this kid toughness and defense and athleticism wise is far better than advertised. The Pelicans crew was infatuated with him, and why not? He did not look out of place next to AD and Cousins. What a monster game from Cousins. Like you I'm not sure how the hell he kept his cool when the refs completely let the game get out of hand late. Kudos to him, he has matured somewhat. Three years ago he gets ejected from that game.

I like Jerian Grant as a 8th man but FFS you can't play PG (or primary ball handler) and not be able to beat full court pressure. Chicago wins that game with Dunn, not because he's so much better than Grant overall but just because he has improved his handle to the point where you can't press him.

Not a fan of Lavine last night either. On paper he had a good game but he was chucking left and right and I do not like him at lead guard AT ALL. He takes shots away from Mirotic in the 2nd unit, which is a bad trade for winning, but I guess since the Bulls are supposed to be tanking that's a good thing.

Oh well, let the tank roll on. They really need to trade Holiday and Lopez ASAP. Seriously. Even for 2nd rounders and vague future benefits. The Bulls have to get down into the 4-6 spot before it's all said and done. Preferably they finish 4th or "better" although the bottom three looks like a pipe dream with the Kings, Atlanta and the Magic so awful.
   2829. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5611780)
Oh well, let the tank roll on. They really need to trade Holiday and Lopez ASAP. Seriously. Even for 2nd rounders and vague future benefits. The Bulls have to get down into the 4-6 spot before it's all said and done. Preferably they finish 4th or "better" although the bottom three looks like a pipe dream with the Kings, Atlanta and the Magic so awful.

holiday would be a good fit for the sixers. something like this would also improve their position this summer:

PHI: justin holiday, 9M trade exception
CHI: jerryd bayless, BRK's 2018 2nd round pick, HOU's 2018 2nd round pick
   2830. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5611796)
BTW, how happy are the Wizards right now that everyone is talking about the Cavs and Spurs? They have been wretched the last couple of weeks.

Watching them be terrible last night had me thinking about how many misaligned coaching situations there are right now. Scott Brooks should clearly be coaching the Cavs to all around general competence and mild underperformance (or Doc, same). Alvin Gentry should obviously be coaching the Wizards (I'd also allow Hornacek here). Jeff Van Gundy should be coaching New Orleans into a sludgy, grindy, double post beast. Come on owners, make some coaching trades already.
   2831. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5611798)
Not that Washington's general underperformance should be blamed on Brooks. As far as I can tell their main problem is that, despite being one of the 10 or so most talented players in the league, John Wall isn't actually particularly good. But hey, at least he's also a malcontent. Good luck with that extension!
   2832. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:12 PM (#5611813)
jmurph, that is two massive takedowns on one page!

   2833. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:19 PM (#5611826)
Ha, out here auditioning for talk radio. But seriously, that Rose comment above shouldn’t be controversial, and I think everyone will come around to this view of Wall eventually.
   2834. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:28 PM (#5611844)
Jmurph clearly has an issue with Calipari guards.

***

How many deals is Leviski going to propose where some team takes on Jerryd Bayless's dead money?
   2835. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:31 PM (#5611850)
Hmmm I like Bledsoe? But yeah you might be right tship!
   2836. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:47 PM (#5611880)
Hmmm I like Bledsoe? But yeah you might be right tship!


Tiebreaker!

Rank the following in terms of how likely you are to save them from a burning building:

Larry Bird, Tyreke Evans, Paul Pierce
   2837. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2018 at 02:56 PM (#5611891)
Bird would just be objectively too heavy, come on.
   2838. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:06 PM (#5611907)
Who says no?


NOP: Kevin Love
CLE: DeMarcus Cousins

Straight up challenge trade.
   2839. Tin Angel Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:09 PM (#5611916)
New Orleans says no in about a second.
   2840. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5611933)
New Orleans says no in about a second.


Really? I think it helps the Pels more. It gets their best player to play his best position, provides more spacing, and improves their defense.
   2841. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5611937)
Who says no? Kevin Love for Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley?
   2842. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5611946)
The Cavs have seamlessly integrated Crowder, why not bring Bradley in too?
   2843. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: January 23, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5611955)
I like Jerian Grant as a 8th man but FFS you can't play PG (or primary ball handler) and not be able to beat full court pressure. Chicago wins that game with Dunn, not because he's so much better than Grant overall but just because he has improved his handle to the point where you can't press him.

I've grown to dislike him. He had a decent game last night, but he just dribbles too much and down the stretch killed too many possessions. He also loves the pullup long 2 way too much. He's a cromulent enough backup PG on a bad team, so it's not a big deal. He's not really worth thinking about, and if the Bulls can move him (which they've been rumored to), it's fine. It'll get Payne more time to prove the Bulls he's worthless and will also make the team worse.

Not a fan of Lavine last night either. On paper he had a good game but he was chucking left and right and I do not like him at lead guard AT ALL. He takes shots away from Mirotic in the 2nd unit, which is a bad trade for winning, but I guess since the Bulls are supposed to be tanking that's a good thing.

It was the first time he played at the end of a game since he's been back, so I'll cut him some slack there. I'm also ok with Hoiberg learning what he can and can't do, and they needed someone to play some PG with Grant playing so much.
   2844. JC in DC Posted: January 23, 2018 at 04:28 PM (#5612021)
Kevin gets no Love. That poor guy gets blamed for every loss, every deficiency, and gets little credit for their wins.
   2845. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2018 at 04:57 PM (#5612048)
I agree with tship that Davis/Love would be really interesting. I think Cousins is probably an upgrade for Cleveland, too? Just better fit on both teams.
   2846. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:12 PM (#5612057)
I'm holding my breath for a Favors and Hood for Love deal.
   2847. . . . . . . Posted: January 23, 2018 at 05:42 PM (#5612080)
I agree with tship that Davis/Love would be really interesting. I think Cousins is probably an upgrade for Cleveland, too? Just better fit on both teams.


Cousins is one of the few players as smart and sophisticated as LBJ. I think LBJ could get the most out of him.
   2848. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: January 23, 2018 at 06:15 PM (#5612096)
This, on general rules for franchises to not shoot themselves in the foot while team building, is a fascinating read from the most cap-savvy NBA blogger I'm aware of (yes, it is a Celtics-specific blog (albeit the same one that launched Zach Lowe's career), but not a Celtics-specific post).
   2849. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 06:33 PM (#5612104)
I agree with tship that Davis/Love would be really interesting. I think Cousins is probably an upgrade for Cleveland, too? Just better fit on both teams.

love is too much of a downgrade to be a better fit for NOP. he's injury prone, he's past his prime, he's a worthless defender.
Really? I think it helps the Pels more. It gets their best player to play his best position, provides more spacing, and improves their defense.
have you ever watched kevin love play defense?

also, i think davis is on record about wanting to play PF. he's better suited to play center in this era, but i think it's been a thing for a while that he prefers not to defend players who are stronger than him.
   2850. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 06:49 PM (#5612115)
trade machine: who says no?

CHA: tristian thompson, solomon hill, etwaun moore, iman shumpert, omer asik, jerryd bayless
NOP: isaiah thomas, jae crowder, marvin williams, jr smith
CLE: dwight howard, nic batum, kemba walker, alexis ajinca
PHI:
   2851. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 06:51 PM (#5612118)
love is too much of a downgrade to be a better fit for NOP. he's injury prone, he's past his prime, he's a worthless defender.


Cousins forces their best player to play out of position. Pels are -50 with Cousins out there and no Davis. They're +35 with Davis and no Cousins.

have you ever watched kevin love play defense?


At least Love makes it onto the screen on the defensive end.

From Zach Lowe's column today:
Cousins' own limitations line up almost perfectly with those of his team. He turns the ball over at an absurd rate and chronically fails to get back on defense; the Pelicans turn the ball over too much and hemorrhage transition points with Cousins on the floor. (Their turnover rate drops from bottom-five territory to best-in-the-league when Davis plays center, per NBA.com.)

There are just way, way, way too many opponent possessions when you see only nine players on the television screen for an alarming length of time. Like, sometimes the opponent will take a shot, grab an offensive rebound, and go up for another shot before Cousins -- pouting and wheezing -- crosses half court.

   2852. JC in DC Posted: January 23, 2018 at 07:07 PM (#5612123)
Apparently the Cavs are close to getting George Hill.

I hate Cousins. I think he's a pox on a team and a coach, and while LBJ might get him to play somewhat harder for some time, he will not secure LBJ for the Cavs beyond this year, in which case the Cavs will be stuck with a classic whiny player, and, even for this season, wow, the Cavs will be super volatile and prone to explosion.
   2853. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 07:08 PM (#5612124)
Cousins forces their best player to play out of position. Pels are -50 with Cousins out there and no Davis. They're +35 with Davis and no Cousins.
are you trying to tell me that it's a bad thing that NOP is only 1 PPG worse when their best player, an all NBA talent, is off the floor? you know that's insane, right?


the difference for the sixers with and without joel embiid is 15 points per 100 possessions and you're quibbling over, what exactly? 3 points per 100 possessions? really?
   2854. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: January 23, 2018 at 07:10 PM (#5612126)
From that Lowe article:
Denver is one such deep mediocrity, and Jokic would probably be here if he asserted himself on offense more. Mike Malone hasn't made that easy by pairing Jokic so often with a paint-bound center (Mason Plumlee), but those halves when Jokic shoots just two or three times need to go, and everyone knows it. (It is not a coincidence Jokic erupted for a career-high 41 points the day after Malone ripped into him in practice.)

He tries harder than Cousins on defense, but the results aren't much different; Malone has gone to greater lengths -- and maybe unnecessary ones -- to hide Jokic in recent games.

Jokic is a magic passer. He empowers teammates in ways that are hard to quantify. He just doesn't crack the roster this season.


Whenever I watch Denver Jokic does not look like a good defender, but Denver is always better defensively with him on the court (about league average overall this year, well below average last year, and again average to slightly above the year before). I do wonder if there are things he's doing that aren't showing up watching him or in box score stats, or if it's still just lineup choices by Denver coaches and/or randomness to explain Denver's better defense with him playing.
   2855. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 07:51 PM (#5612145)
are you trying to tell me that it's a bad thing that NOP is only 1 PPG worse when their best player, an all NBA talent, is off the floor? you know that's insane, right?


No, I'm telling you that, the Pelicans are +4.2/100 possessions with Davis, without Boogie on the court. They are +4.0 with both of them on the court. They are literally better without Cousins on the court.

AD is the straw that stirs the drink, and they need pieces that fit better around him.
   2856. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 07:59 PM (#5612147)
This, on general rules for franchises to not shoot themselves in the foot while team building, is a fascinating read from the most cap-savvy NBA blogger I'm aware of (yes, it is a Celtics-specific blog (albeit the same one that launched Zach Lowe's career), but not a Celtics-specific post).
that's a good link:


why trade future assets with upside and long-term cost control for short term fixes? If you’re looking for a fix to a specific problem your real problem is more likely something like “don’t have LeBron James” than “don’t have anyone to guard LeBron James,” anyway.
   2857. JJ1986 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 08:31 PM (#5612158)
The lineups Davis is playing in without Cousins also mostly lack Rajon Rondo. Per Cleaning the Glass, Davis without Rondo or Cousins is +2.8. Davis and Cousins with no Rondo is +12.8. Cousins without Rondo or Davis is +1.3. Cousins with no Davis and with Rondo is the disaster, -15.7.

Edit: fixed the numbers.
   2858. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2018 at 08:41 PM (#5612163)
This George Hill thing is interesting. Healthy, fully effective George Hill would definitely help Cleveland (obviously the question is whether they get either or both of those things). But do they have some kind of renewed confidence that LeBron is staying? Because Hill is owed a lot of money next year.
   2859. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: January 23, 2018 at 08:49 PM (#5612166)
But do they have some kind of renewed confidence that LeBron is staying?
If they can get Hill without coughing up the Brooklyn pick, does it matter? You only get a finite number of playoff runs with a GOAT candidate on your roster, and they don't have many other assets that are likely to significantly change their prospects if/when LeBron leaves.
   2860. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2018 at 08:54 PM (#5612171)
If they can get Hill without coughing up the Brooklyn pick, does it matter? You only get a finite number of playoff runs with a GOAT candidate on your roster, and they don't have many other assets that are likely to significantly change their prospects if/when LeBron leaves.

Yeah that's fair. Their cap situation is a disaster next year anyway, so that could be the thinking.
   2861. RJ in TO Posted: January 23, 2018 at 09:02 PM (#5612175)
No, I'm telling you that, the Pelicans are +4.2/100 possessions with Davis, without Boogie on the court. They are +4.0 with both of them on the court. They are literally better without Cousins on the court.
I'm certainly not an expert in these things, but is a difference of 0.2 points per 100 possessions, based on half a season of data, really meaningful or completely within the realm of noise?
   2862. Just TFTIO Posted: January 23, 2018 at 09:24 PM (#5612181)
This CLE-SAS game looks like it is about to go all casters-up for the Cavs here.
   2863. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: January 23, 2018 at 09:51 PM (#5612185)
And just to salt the wound the Nets are beating the Thunder.
   2864. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: January 23, 2018 at 09:56 PM (#5612189)
Bertans is a nifty player.
   2865. JC in DC Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:07 PM (#5612193)
The stats won't reflect it, but LBJ is killing the Cavs tonight. Bad turnovers, bad shots, and worse defense and hustle.
   2866. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:11 PM (#5612194)
2 straight terrible possessions from Murray. Surprised Pop didn't pull him.
   2867. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:12 PM (#5612195)
I'm certainly not an expert in these things, but is a difference of 0.2 points per 100 possessions, based on half a season of data, really meaningful or completely within the realm of noise?

it's not meaningful by any relevant definition of the word 'meaningful'.

NOP's problem is obvious: they have 2 all-stars, 3 competent role players, and noone else above replacement level. cousins isn't the problem, 8 years of terrible roster decisions is the problem
   2868. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:15 PM (#5612198)
Well, another whuppin for Cleveland. Sacramento should squeeze another 2nd rounder out of them but, come on, you know Vlad doesn't roll like that. He'll probably toss on Cauley-Stein without being asked.
   2869. JC in DC Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:26 PM (#5612201)
A whuppin by a Spurs team without Kawhi, without Pau, and without Ginobili.
   2870. tshipman Posted: January 23, 2018 at 11:57 PM (#5612217)
The Knicks broadcast team is such a treasure.

Maybe my favorite one in the NBA.
   2871. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:24 AM (#5612220)
Are we seeing a lot more technical fouls than normal, or does it just seem that way? Because boy oh boy does it seem like they're calling them waaaaaaaaaay too often.
   2872. tshipman Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:24 AM (#5612221)
I'm certainly not an expert in these things, but is a difference of 0.2 points per 100 possessions, based on half a season of data, really meaningful or completely within the realm of noise?


Yes, it's certainly within the realm of noise.

The point is not that DeMarcus Cousins is a bad player--he's a very good player. He's a bad fit with Davis, though. That's the point.

When you look at other stars, they act as multipliers. When Russell Westbrook and Paul George play together, the Thunder have a better differential than when they play apart.
When Steph and Draymond, or Steph and Klay, or Steph and Durant play together--all feature a higher differential than just Steph on his own.

On a team with two all stars and a bunch of guys, that tendency should be even more pronounced.
The Trailblazers, for example last year, were a two man team. They had a negative scoring margin on the season, but when Dame and CJ were on the court, they had a +3.7/100 rating.
   2873. Just TFTIO Posted: January 24, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5612250)
I'm always curious about how much organization instability plays into the reputation of someone like Cousins as a coachkiller or head case or whatever. Going from the burning sewer that is Sacramento to the smouldering tire fire that is NOP is pretty much a lateral move in terms of organizational quality.
   2874. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:03 AM (#5612278)
Maybe Cousins is the victim of the Kings and the Pelicans but his behavior on the court is pretty terrible (both in petulance and lack of effort) and I've heard several writers who have covered the Kings hint on podcasts that he is a massive ####### behind the scenes, too. There's just an awful lot of evidence that Cousins in a basketball context is a lot of trouble (but he seems to be a charitable guy away from basketball so I'm not trying to judge him as a person in totality).
   2875. . . . . . . Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5612294)
Maybe Cousins is the victim of the Kings and the Pelicans but his behavior on the court is pretty terrible (both in petulance and lack of effort) and I've heard several writers who have covered the Kings hint on podcasts that he is a massive ####### behind the scenes, too. There's just an awful lot of evidence that Cousins in a basketball context is a lot of trouble (but he seems to be a charitable guy away from basketball so I'm not trying to judge him as a person in totality).


The problem with this analysis is that Cousins is smart (its worth watching videos of him being interviewed rather than reading what he says filtered through the media)and doesn't take ####. Black guys like that tend to get hammered by sports journalists, often for no damn reason other than subtle, unconscious prejudice. Barry Bonds, same personality, was pilloried for years and it was mostly bullshit, he would do anything to win (as we later learned) and had Cassellian balls in the clutch.
   2876. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:54 AM (#5612320)
So is Cousins the only smart black guy who doesn't take #### in the NBA? Because he gets about 50 times more criticism for his personality flaws than any other notable player.
   2877. Just TFTIO Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5612324)
It doesn't make him a "victim", per se; he's obviously a volatile dude. But a volatile dude in one context can be an intense winner in another, and before I write DMC off I'd love to see how he does in a culture that's a better fit for his personality. That doesn't necessarily mean San Antonio -- it might be someplace unexpected, where the structures in place and the practices of the culture work better for him.
   2878. tshipman Posted: January 24, 2018 at 10:59 AM (#5612327)
The problem with this analysis is that Cousins is smart (its worth watching videos of him being interviewed rather than reading what he says filtered through the media)and doesn't take ####. Black guys like that tend to get hammered by sports journalists, often for no damn reason other than subtle, unconscious prejudice. Barry Bonds, same personality, was pilloried for years and it was mostly bullshit, he would do anything to win (as we later learned) and had Cassellian balls in the clutch.


I like Cousins a lot personally. I think he's a fascinating personality, and a lot of what he does that gets criticized is overrated.

All I care about is what shows up in the numbers, and that's where I have a problem. Cousins is always a part of terrible transition defenses because he doesn't get back. If Cousins cared as much about winning as Barry Bonds (one of my favorite baseball players of all time), he'd get the F back on defense. Above and beyond that, he's a bad fit with AD because they play the same position.

For the record: the only guy that I think is actually bad enough in the locker room that I wouldn't sign him is Dwight Howard.
   2879. . . . . . . Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5612331)
So is Cousins the only smart black guy who doesn't take #### in the NBA? Because he gets about 50 times more criticism for his personality flaws than any other notable player.


TFTIO has it. Cousins is volatile and competitive and big and probably is a ####### trainwreck on a Tankasaurus Rex team. But Garnett tended to blow up on those teams as well - you really needed to put him on a winner or his insanity would drive the other guys nuts. Maybe Cousins is just too ####### nuts to succeed but I'd like to see him get a shot on a winner before we write him off. He is real ####### big and skilled.

Also, he's picked some fights with guys with good media connections, cough Karl cough.

Cousins is always a part of terrible transition defenses because he doesn't get back. If Cousins cared as much about winning as Barry Bonds (one of my favorite baseball players of all time), he'd get the F back on defense.


Cousins' conditioning sucks, no question. He needs to drop 20 lbs.
   2880. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5612336)
Zach Lowe‏ @ZachLowe_NBA
Boston played 9 minutes last night w/o both Horford and Kyrie. Went minus-14. Lost by 1. Extreme example of season-long pattern. Will be interesting to see how they handle in the playoffs.

So first, curse the god of injuries for Hayward, but then to the point: yeah this bugs me a lot. I watch most of nearly every Celtics game, and the amount of times I scan through the players on the court and wonder "hmmm, who is supposed to score in this lineup?" is... too many, too many times.
   2881. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5612345)
And speaking of which, I think I'm now officially in the camp of wanting Boston to make a move to make a stronger run at the East this year. I have no great ideas for what that move should be- I'm not exactly inspired by the Tyreke Evans talk- but I think they have an opportunity to enter a series against Cleveland or Toronto believing they have a legitimate shot at winning 4 games.
   2882. tshipman Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:35 AM (#5612368)
And speaking of which, I think I'm now officially in the camp of wanting Boston to make a move to make a stronger run at the East this year. I have no great ideas for what that move should be- I'm not exactly inspired by the Tyreke Evans talk- but I think they have an opportunity to enter a series against Cleveland or Toronto believing they have a legitimate shot at winning 4 games.


Per the numbers, their biggest weakness is offense, where they're mediocre.

So if you wanted to improve the Celtics, they play two players who are bad offensively significant minutes: Marcus Smart and Semi Ojeleye. Smart is good on defense, but Ojeleye is not. Ojeleye only plays about 14 minutes, so replacing him isn't a big deal.

Really, it's just Kyrie and Horford. When those two are on the court, the Celtics are a good offense. When they're not, the Celtics crater.
   2883. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5612380)
Right, which is why the Evans talk makes sense to some degree- he's not great by any means, but he can at least do something off the dribble and get up shots that don't rely on a perfectly executed offensive set every time.

EDIT: Oh and Ojeleye can guard a bit, but yeah he's playing too many minutes, for sure.
   2884. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5612397)
The positive argument for Boston's weird lineups and minutes allocations it that Stevens is trying to thread the needle of keeping guys rested, giving the young guys experience, and still winning enough games to finish with the 1 or 2 seed. Cleveland's swoon is making the latter a lot easier, of course, as is Washington's underachievement. So ideally we will not see many minutes in the playoffs without one of Kyrie or Horford on the court.
   2885. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5612409)
Theis is also pretty bad offensively, though he's sneaky-bad given his shooting efficiency. Lots of turnovers, can't create, doesn't space the floor. Replacing Ojeleye and Theis's minutes with a offensive-minded shot creator seems like the clearest path to improvement. I've mentioned Randle before, but what about Michael Beasley? Would be cool to see if Brad Stevens could make him a competent defender. He's the best pure scorer in the league who's cheap both in terms of contract and trade value.
   2886. Just TFTIO Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:04 PM (#5612410)
All I care about is what shows up in the numbers, and that's where I have a problem. Cousins is always a part of terrible transition defenses because he doesn't get back. If Cousins cared as much about winning as Barry Bonds (one of my favorite baseball players of all time), he'd get the F back on defense. Above and beyond that, he's a bad fit with AD because they play the same position.

I am prepared to believe that his conditioning is a function of his dissatisfaction, whether real or perceived; and that he might look very different on e.g. the Celtics or the Warriors. I do agree that the idea of him and AD working well together was largely predicated on false premises and that NOP was not the place to try and overcome those premises.
   2887. Just TFTIO Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5612416)
Mostly, I think the majority of people with bad attitudes are redeemable, and the power of organizational culture is always, always, always understated.
   2888. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:08 PM (#5612419)
I do agree that the idea of him and AD working well together was largely predicated on false premises and that NOP was not the place to try and overcome those premises.

This is funny to me because they're way overachieving my expectations. I'm pretty sure I had Gentry as my first coach fired this year and thought they'd miss the playoffs by a lot. Now granted, them being in 6th is at least partially a function of the other teams in that group underachieving, but still.

I do still agree with the rest of you that it's not going to work in the sense that they're not going to build a title contender around them.
   2889. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5612427)
Theis is also pretty bad offensively, though he's sneaky-bad given his shooting efficiency. Lots of turnovers, can't create, doesn't space the floor. Replacing Ojeleye and Theis's minutes with a offensive-minded shot creator seems like the clearest path to improvement. I've mentioned Randle before, but what about Michael Beasley? Would be cool to see if Brad Stevens could make him a competent defender. He's the best pure scorer in the league who's cheap both in terms of contract and trade value.
or kanter, mirotic, or vucevic.

i think BOS can get away with a slight defensive downgrade at center as long as their perimeter defense doesn't slip.
   2890. Tin Angel Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:20 PM (#5612436)
Zach Lowe @ZachLowe_NBA
Boston played 9 minutes last night w/o both Horford and Kyrie. Went minus-14. Lost by 1. Extreme example of season-long pattern. Will be interesting to see how they handle in the playoffs.
   2891. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:23 PM (#5612439)
Tin Angel, scroll up man!
   2892. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5612445)
if the sixers add lebron and cousins this summer, could they win 70 games next year? lebron is worth about 12 wins? cousins is worth about 7? improvements from simmons, embiid, saric (fultz?) could add another 5?

if their starting point is ~45 wins without any of that, those additional wins take their projection up to 69. it's fuzzy math, but it's not wrong, is it? that team can win 70 games.


on a related note, with the all-star game having drafted rosters this year, i'd love to see lebron pick up cousins and embiid to get a nice preview of it.
   2893. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5612447)
Oh I strongly disagree on Theis, I think he's really important to keep around. They need at least one guy who can provide some semblance of rim protection. Morris isn't having a great year, but he can provide some biggish man scoring off the bench.
   2894. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:29 PM (#5612451)
if the sixers add lebron and cousins this summer, could they win 70 games next year?

None of those three things are going to happen. So no.
   2895. tshipman Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5612453)
I've mentioned Randle before, but what about Michael Beasley? Would be cool to see if Brad Stevens could make him a competent defender. He's the best pure scorer in the league who's cheap both in terms of contract and trade value.


Beasley is interesting. He can't guard wings, and probably can't play crunch time defense against good teams because he's hopeless when you ask him to switch.

Great creator of efficient offense on second units.
   2896. Tin Angel Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:32 PM (#5612456)
Ah, whoops, sorry about that.
   2897. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5612457)
None of those three things are going to happen. So no.

BOS traded for kyrie, signed hayward and drafted tatum this summer. they dumped 4 starters from a team that was the #1 seed in the east.

the sixers picking up lebron and cousins is no less farfetched.
   2898. Booey Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:36 PM (#5612460)
if the sixers add lebron and cousins this summer, could they win 70 games next year?


No matter what any team does ever, bet the under on 70 wins. You'd have been right about every team in NBA history except two.
   2899. tshipman Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5612464)
if the sixers add lebron and cousins this summer, could they win 70 games next year?


How are the Sixers adding two guys who play the same position as their two best players?

Simmons and Embiid are a 4 and a 5, and they're going to add a 4 and a 5?
   2900. jmurph Posted: January 24, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5612470)
BOS traded for kyrie, signed hayward and drafted tatum this summer. they dumped 4 starters from a team that was the #1 seed in the east.

the sixers picking up lebron and cousins is no less farfetched.

They had to convince only one of those players to play for them, and they employed that player's college coach. So yes, I think convincing LeBron and Cousins to join the Sixers is dramatically more farfetched.
Page 29 of 40 pages ‹ First  < 27 28 29 30 31 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Phil Birnbaum
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread (2018-19 season kickoff edition)
(2470 - 11:37pm, Nov 16)
Last: there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135

NewsblogSale of Baseball Prospectus
(318 - 11:34pm, Nov 16)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogMichael Wilbon Weighs In On Jacob deGrom With Worst Baseball Take Of Year | MLB | NESN.com
(8 - 10:45pm, Nov 16)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

Sox TherapyLet’s Get Off-Seasoning!
(5 - 10:40pm, Nov 16)
Last: Jay Seaver

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (November 2018)
(433 - 10:09pm, Nov 16)
Last: Morty Causa

NewsblogMarlins get rid of orange, cite South Florida cultures with new look
(28 - 8:57pm, Nov 16)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogHow Kevin Brown Became Baseball's First $100 Million Man
(9 - 8:46pm, Nov 16)
Last: TVerik, who wonders what the hell is "Ansky"

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-16-2018
(10 - 8:30pm, Nov 16)
Last: crict

NewsblogIndians' Trevor Bauer pleads his own Cy Young case using a spreadsheet on Twitter
(24 - 8:01pm, Nov 16)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogFox Sports inks multi-year rights agreement with Major League Baseball
(30 - 8:00pm, Nov 16)
Last: QLE

NewsblogJoe Mauer Retires After 15 Seasons
(84 - 6:44pm, Nov 16)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread (2018-19 season begins!)
(1216 - 5:35pm, Nov 16)
Last: AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther

NewsblogYelich, Betts Win MVPs
(54 - 5:28pm, Nov 16)
Last: The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott)

NewsblogHow Mets, deGrom could get their contract extension done
(4 - 5:18pm, Nov 16)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogAL Central Offseason Preview
(16 - 4:51pm, Nov 16)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.6465 seconds
46 querie(s) executed