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Wednesday, October 11, 2017

OT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, some of whom still care about baseball playoffs, but all of whom agree the Celtics gave up too much for Irving.

Here’s the thread’s top 50 players ranking.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:21 AM | 3977 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   3801. PJ Martinez Posted: February 11, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5623259)
I listened to that podcast. As I recall, the assumption was that getting Walker plus Batum might have cost the Brooklyn pick? But maybe not. Definitely one of the first-round picks, though.

Edit: this is a response to the post immediately below!
   3802. Oriole Tragic: doomed to mysterious ignomy Posted: February 11, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5623260)
I held my nose and listened to a Ringer podcast last night: Simmons thinks that CLE should have offered a package to CHA for Kemba and Batum, as he feels it doesn't really matter how much money they take on, right now.

I think Simmons felt that CLE could have sent CHA the same package that ended up going to SAC, but I'd think that CHA would've wanted that CLE-1st, too.

Edit: sorry about that badly-timed flip, PJ!
   3803. Oriole Tragic: doomed to mysterious ignomy Posted: February 11, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5623262)
Simmons had a tough time getting cosign from his guests in that one because of Batum's contract, as I recall.
   3804. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 11, 2018 at 05:17 PM (#5623285)
Cavs killing the Celtics in Boston today. 95-69 so far.
   3805. PJ Martinez Posted: February 11, 2018 at 05:22 PM (#5623287)
Rough week for the C's. And the Cavs look, as many expected, rejuvenated.
   3806. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 11, 2018 at 05:38 PM (#5623292)
Celtic fans have to sit through this game because of the Paul Pierce tribute that's going to start after.
   3807. tshipman Posted: February 11, 2018 at 07:10 PM (#5623306)
And the Cavs look, as many expected, rejuvenated.


Ehhh ... think people should wait until the Cavs have a bad shooting game.

Cavs hit 50% and like 45% on their 3pers.

Celtics underperformed on 3s and Cavs overperformed. If both teams had hit 36%, Celtics would have won by 5.

I know, if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle, but let's not confuse 3p variance for something more real.
   3808. PJ Martinez Posted: February 11, 2018 at 07:46 PM (#5623314)
Three-point shooting was definitely big, and there's certainly an element of luck in that. I'd be curious to see how many open looks from three each team had. Watching the first three quarters (then I turned it off), it seemed like Cleveland had more, but I could be wrong.

In any case, they also just played with a lot of energy, particularly on defense, in a way that the Cavs haven't in a while. It's obviously only one game, but it's an encouraging one if you're a Cleveland fan, even if you accept that some amount of luck probably helped turn a likely convincing win into a total blowout.
   3809. JC in DC Posted: February 11, 2018 at 08:59 PM (#5623328)
The problem with Cleveland's resurgence, assuming it continues, is that it's just more evidence to devalue the regular season, particularly prior to the trade deadline. The Cleveland team we watched the first 3/5 of the season will not make the playoffs. This new team will. Sure, the regular season is good for the teams to see who's too old, who's too sucky, who's developing and so on, so they can make good adds and subtracts, but for (non-obsessive) fans? Less compelling.
   3810. PJ Martinez Posted: February 11, 2018 at 09:17 PM (#5623332)
The problem with Cleveland's resurgence, assuming it continues, is that it's just more evidence to devalue the regular season, particularly prior to the trade deadline.

I don't see it that way at all. The trainwreck that was the pre-deadline Cavs was terrific drama. And the shakeup was a nice plot twist. And now the potential turnaround is a fun second-half storyline. All of this makes for a great regular season, in my view.

Edit: I guess by "value" you mean how much bearing does it have on the playoff results? I'm not really sure why that should be the crucial thing -- and it all will bear, ultimately, on the results, I imagine. Did they make the right moves? Do they have time to gel? Etc.
   3811. JC in DC Posted: February 11, 2018 at 09:27 PM (#5623335)
I wrote for "non-obsessive" fans to exclude us.
   3812. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: February 11, 2018 at 10:41 PM (#5623342)
The problem with Cleveland's resurgence, assuming it continues, is that it's just more evidence to devalue the regular season, particularly prior to the trade deadline.

Only if you assume struggling teams will consistently be able to deal all of their players for new ones. Or maybe I'm not following.
   3813. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 12, 2018 at 12:14 AM (#5623350)
The trainwreck that was the pre-deadline Cavs was terrific drama. And the shakeup was a nice plot twist. And now the potential turnaround is a fun second-half storyline. All of this makes for a great regular season, in my view.
QFT. The Cavs dominated sports page headlines this past week, first by being so awful, then by making a whole slew of trades, and now by winning. This is good, sweet drama, the kind that creates the narratives that pulls fans to the television.
   3814. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: February 12, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5623377)
I think the regular season does matter. Home court matters to a lot of teams and it seems like there are less mail-in games this season with them lowering the # of B2Bs (they did end up doing this, right?). There's a race for the #8 seed in each league with Detroit making the move for Griffin and then Utah's winning stream in the West.

The Cavs turned over a ton of their roster but that is unusual and high risk. In fact, I think on top of the drama as a non-Cavs fan, it's telling that they realized that wasn't just an old team coasting - their regular season results meant something, mainly that they kinda sucked.

There looks to be a real challenger to Golden State in the West, plus the mid-range teams are improved with Minnesota/OKC. The East looks for-real open, not Cleveland-coasting open. The Sixers are currently on pace to make the playoffs which could/will be fun, the Bucks are starting to play better. Some fun drama in Washington.

I think you could probably shave off 10-20% of the season and still generally have the best teams make the playoffs at the right seed, but you can say that about every league. I think the NBA regular-season problem has been more coasting and star players sitting for marquee games, and I've not noticed those problems nearly as much this year.
   3815. tshipman Posted: February 12, 2018 at 11:05 AM (#5623453)
Re: Regular Season not mattering:

There have only been one or two flip the switch teams in NBA history--2001 Lakers and 1995 Rockets. Maybe this season's Warriors will be a third. Cleveland didn't flip a switch last year, it just got 3p lucky for 10 games.

People seem to think this is a much bigger problem than it is.
   3816. jmurph Posted: February 12, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5623457)
In any case, they also just played with a lot of energy, particularly on defense, in a way that the Cavs haven't in a while.

LeBron and JR should be embarrassed by how hard they played on defense in the first half yesterday- or to be more specific, by how they played for the first 50ish games of the year.

I didn't see anything from Cleveland that would make me think they have a better shot against the West, but it's obviously still early with this new group. I did see yet more to worry about Boston, though. I wish they could have found a way to add more guard/wing offense at the deadline.
   3817. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 12, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5623461)
What has really been going on with Markelle Fultz?

When you invest as much as the Sixers did to acquire Fultz, “We don’t know” is a baffling summary of events.

On the flipside, there are people close to Fultz who point the finger in the other direction. They see a kid who never had an issue with his jumper and was drafted No. 1 overall predominantly because of his shot. Even if someone outside the Sixers sent him down the wrong path last summer, they see it as the team's responsibility to get him right now, something the Sixers have failed to do over the last couple months since clearing him December 9.

Presented with the information Fultz had been spotted in the gym with Williams as recently as mid-January, there was a bit of a shocking development: I, along with several other members of the media, had learned of the workout session(s) before the team did.
There is a problem in applying this logic to Fultz. The No. 1 pick played in another preseason game in Boston shortly after the Memphis game, and we saw the beginning of a pattern that has remained consistent in the months since. On a mid-range pull-up, Fultz rose up and shot the ball naturally, undeterred by any issue he may or may not have been dealing with.

...In that very same game, we saw ghastly free-throw attempts that look as if they were taken by someone who had never played basketball before
Even when Fultz is going through basic shot-building reps near the basket, he looks as though he has to will himself through the process of getting the ball up toward the hoop. This video, for example, was taken before a game on Feb. 2 and includes an airball from just several feet away.

When they do not have the time to give Fultz their full attention, former NBA player Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf has been called upon to lead Fultz in extra sessions. Abdul-Rauf, who was sought out by Fultz’s agent and his family initially, was given the team’s blessing to help get their No. 1 pick back on track
At several points throughout December and January, separate team sources expressed a belief he would be on the court sooner than later, playing at a level not far from what we saw out of Fultz in college and summer league. This was obviously a miscalculation.
Fultz ultimately has final say in his return to action, and team officials have half-expected him to walk in one day and just declare himself ready to go

   3818. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 12, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5623462)
The Warriors are on pace for 63 wins this year despite some injuries to Curry/Durant. I don't think they flip the switch if they have a dominant playoff run, it will be a great team playing great.

The Cavs definitely played at a higher level last year in the playoffs. You can argue 3p% all you want but just because you think it is true doesn't make it so.
   3819. jmurph Posted: February 12, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5623477)
The Cavs definitely played at a higher level last year in the playoffs. You can argue 3p% all you want but just because you think it is true doesn't make it so.

Their defense remained terrible, which I think is the biggest issue.
   3820. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 12, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5623482)
3818 is a bit too antagonistic and a little bit rude. Apologies.

Perhaps I have not seen the argument, but just listing 3P% isn't "proof" of a stance. Correlation does not imply causation.

The Cavaliers had a point differential in Eastern Conference playoffs of 17.8 last year.

Getting beat up by the GSW doesn't mean that the Cavaliers didn't play better than they did in the regular season. GSW was just better. Both of those things can be true.
   3821. JJ1986 Posted: February 12, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5623491)
   3822. stevegamer Posted: February 12, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5623564)
Thanks for the link in 3821. The AI is really bad at picking a team, though in some ways. I was able to leave them with a team where the bigs were LeBron & Aldridge, and that was leaving Drummond until next-to-last pick.


   3823. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 12, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5623624)
Cleveland still has some catching up to do, in terms of finding their rhythm to compete with not only Boston, but Toronto and Philadelphia...and all of the teams.


- lebron.
   3824. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 12, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5623691)
8-2 against the computer. I think I've wasted enough time today. Just a few more games...
   3825. aberg Posted: February 12, 2018 at 03:01 PM (#5623703)
There have only been one or two flip the switch teams in NBA history--2001 Lakers and 1995 Rockets. Maybe this season's Warriors will be a third. Cleveland didn't flip a switch last year, it just got 3p lucky for 10 games.


The Cavs went from a net rating of 3.3 in the regular season to 8.1 in the postseason. They made 1.2 more 3pt FG per game on the exact same number of attempts int he postseason, so there are a couple of points of their net rating that are completely external to their 3pt variance.
   3826. aberg Posted: February 12, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5623713)
Also, the 96 Rockets went from a 2.3 net rating to a 3.0 in the playoffs. They didn't flip a switch as much as they won a bunch of close games and ran into an Orlando collapse in the Finals that made their run look more dominant than it was. They also slightly bumped up their 3pt FGA and % in the playoffs, so let's chalk that up to 3pt variance, too.

The 01 Lakers are a great example, though. They had the 6th best SRS in the league despite having a normal-ish number of injuries. Then they won 15/16 playoff games with a 13.7 net rating. That's just nutty.
   3827. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: February 12, 2018 at 09:56 PM (#5623954)
If we're talking about coasting and ethics in 3 point variance, the Boston Celtics team that led to The Decision was one, for sure.
   3828. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 12, 2018 at 10:07 PM (#5623959)
tj mcconnell was the first reserve to have a triple-double since...PI can't find another one. it may not have happened in the last 50 years.

speaking of PI, this is amusing.

   3829. Athletic Supporter wants to move your money around Posted: February 12, 2018 at 10:41 PM (#5623972)
Manu never had one? Weird.
   3830. Tin Angel Posted: February 12, 2018 at 10:55 PM (#5623977)
speaking of PI, this is amusing.


Man, I'm not sure how much longer Thibs is going to be a head coach.
   3831. Sean Forman Posted: February 12, 2018 at 11:07 PM (#5623981)
tj mcconnell was the first reserve to have a triple-double since...PI can't find another one. it may not have happened in the last 50 years.


I suspect you left the seasons as 2017-18. There were three last year.
   3832. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 13, 2018 at 12:01 AM (#5623993)
I suspect you left the seasons as 2017-18. There were three last year.
okay, yeah, that's completely wrong. i'm not sure what happened there, but you're probably right.


Drew Corrigan @Dcorrigan50
We all need a joel Embiid in our lives
pic.twitter.com/E0fiQ5frVt
   3833. tshipman Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:57 AM (#5624007)

The Cavs went from a net rating of 3.3 in the regular season to 8.1 in the postseason. They made 1.2 more 3pt FG per game on the exact same number of attempts int he postseason, so there are a couple of points of their net rating that are completely external to their 3pt variance.


This is what I get for not checking the numbers.

In my defense, I was caring for a newborn while posting.

Also in my defense, more than 100% of that improvement in net rating came on offense. Typically when people talk about flipping the switch, they're talking about defense. The Cavs got worse on defense in the playoffs.

The Cavs definitely played at a higher level last year in the playoffs. You can argue 3p% all you want but just because you think it is true doesn't make it so.


Here's the opponent shooting against the Cavs only on wide open shots.

They gave up 16 wide open 3pers per game but their opponents only shot 39.9%. The Raptors only shot 36% on wide open 3pers!!!

The Cavs, by comparison, took just 12.9 wide open 3pers per game in the playoffs and made 46.4%. They made more wide open 3s while taking fewer and giving more to their opponents.

I am not familiar with the defensive scheme that emphasizes giving up wide open 3s.
   3834. There are a lot of good people in alt-Shooty Posted: February 13, 2018 at 08:41 AM (#5624047)
I can't believe people have hurt feelings about Kerr letting players draw up a few plays. If the Suns want respect they should try winning a few ####### games one of these years.
   3835. jmurph Posted: February 13, 2018 at 09:31 AM (#5624074)
In my defense, I was caring for a newborn while posting.

Uhhh breaking news? Congrats sir!
   3836. jmurph Posted: February 13, 2018 at 09:32 AM (#5624078)
I can't believe people have hurt feelings about Kerr letting players draw up a few plays. If the Suns want respect they should try winning a few ####### games one of these years.

I saw that headline and immediately knew people would be angry about it. Outstanding.
   3837. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 13, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5624136)
Against Boston, the Celtics actually shot better on wide open threes than the Cavaliers (45.3% vs 43.1%) and yet still got hammered by an average 17.8 ppg. I doubt that is just 3p% variance.

They gave up 16 wide open 3pers per game but their opponents only shot 39.9%. The Raptors only shot 36% on wide open 3pers!!!


The Raptors lost by an average of 15.3 points per game. If you give the Raptors the same three point percentage on wide open shots as the Cavaliers, they hit 2.5 more threes a game, and that means the Cavs still win by an average of 7.8 ppg. Again, seems more than 3p% variance to me.

Especially, I would love to know how many open threes the Raptors and Celtics got in garbage time. Perhaps the Cavaliers defense got worse when they were 20 or 30 points but I don't think that matters much. It might be hard to have that type of intense defensive effort in garbage time.

To be fair, Indian got swept by an average of just 4 points per game, and evening out 3 point shooting eliminates a lot of that difference. To be honest, the Cavaliers did not look very formidable against the Pacers in that series.

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that the Cavaliers found another gear against Boston and Toronto.

I am not familiar with the defensive scheme that emphasizes giving up wide open 3s.

Snarky comments and exclamation marks aside, I actually find your "proof" weak. In fact, I actually think it provides proof to the other side of the argument.

Do you have any other evidence?
   3838. jmurph Posted: February 13, 2018 at 10:59 AM (#5624153)
Russlan is there an affirmative argument that Cleveland flipped the switch on defense last year?
   3839. tshipman Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:10 AM (#5624161)
The Raptors lost by an average of 15.3 points per game. If you give the Raptors the same three point percentage on wide open shots as the Cavaliers, they hit 2.5 more threes a game, and that means the Cavs still win by an average of 7.8 ppg. Again, seems more than 3p% variance to me.


Raps also shot 30% on open (no defender within 4-6 feet) threes.

If the Cavs and Raps shot the same percentage on 3, which is basically the neutral expectation in a small sample, the total margin of the series would have been 3 points.

Just look at games 2 and 3. In those games, the Raps hit 29% and 11% of their 3s (!). The Cavs hit 56% and 55% in the same games and blew them out. The entire margin and more in both games came at the 3p line.

Was that the Cavs hitting another gear? I mean, you could call it that, but I think that's super misleading. Teams don't decide to suddenly hit 3pers then change their minds. The Cavs highrolled for a few games against Toronto on their 3p percentage and Toronto low-rolled. That was despite the teams getting the same general number of open and wide open shots. That's not a scheme or an effort thing--everyone tries to shoot 3s and make them. Sometimes you make 50%, and sometimes you make 10%. That's life.

Those games counted and the Cavs won--but it wasn't due to playing with greater effort than the Raptors. Teams don't flip a "make 3pers" switch.
   3840. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:19 AM (#5624168)
Is the fanbase happy/miserable with how this season is playing out with respect to absolute and relative expectations at this exact moment in time:

Happy: Toronto, Boston, Milwaukee, Indiana, Philadelphia, Golden State, Houston, Minnesota, Utah

Probably Happy: Cleveland, Lakers, Clippers, Chicago

No Idea: Washington, Miami, Brooklyn, San Antonio, Oklahoma City

Probably Miserable: Portland, New Orleans, Denver

Miserable: Detroit, Charlotte, New York, Orlando, Atlanta, Memphis, Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento
   3841. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5624170)
Happy: Toronto, Boston, Milwaukee, Indiana, Philadelphia, Golden State, Houston, Minnesota, Utah


It should be, but my somewhat limited sample of sports radio, newspaper, and fans suggests they are somewhat excited and happy, but with a major "waiting for the other shoe to drop" or maybe it is the Sword of Damocles feeling. I am enjoying it, but I hear a lot of ... "in the upcoming games against X they have to do Y or it will be the second sign of the apocalypse!"
   3842. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5624176)
I look forward to the playoffs this year when LeBron hits a crucial step back 3 and Kevin Harlan says "LEBRON JAMES, WITH NO REGARD FOR 3 POINT VARIANCE"
   3843. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5624181)
I think there's happiness and unhappiness nuances beyond happy/miserable. But as a Spurs fan, Kawhi hasn't really played much this year and the Spurs just aren't that good or entertaining to watch right now. There's also the talk about Kawhi's camp growing distant, and the whole thing has been weird to the point where I'm not sure what to expect in terms of who all will be playing, and at what level, when the playoffs start. None of the role players have really stepped up this season, either. On the whole, I'm pretty down on the season thus far. Miserable is too strong, it's not been a good year.
   3844. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:34 AM (#5624184)
Raps also shot 30% on open (no defender within 4-6 feet) threes.

Ok, so let's add those numbers.

The Raptors shot 6.8 out 19.8 on three pointers that were open or wide open for a percentages of 34.3% in that series.

The Cavaliers shot 11.5 for 24.3 on three pointers that were open or wide open for a percentages of 47.3% in that series. (Note that the Cavaliers were able to generate more open or wide open threes than the Raptors did that series)

Giving the Raptors the same exact percentage as the Cavaliers in that series means that they hit 2.6 more three pointers a game, for 7.8 points per game. And that's being generous to the Raptors because I don't know why we should just assume they should shoot the same percentage as the Cavs.

The Cavaliers had a point differential in that series of 15.8 points, so making the percentages the exact same makes the difference of 8.0 ppg.


Still not evidence that it is just 3 point shooting.
   3845. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:38 AM (#5624187)
NBA‏ @NBA
New Laker Channing Frye gets to work before #LakeShow Practice! #LakersAllAccess
12:23 PM - 12 Feb 2018


DWade‏ @DwyaneWade
That’s all for the cameras. He never lift weights
12:43 PM - 12 Feb 2018
   3846. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5624189)
Wine:
The river of black shuttle buses negotiates sharp switchbacks, bouncing upward along miles of uneven pavement that fades into dirt, from two lanes to one, climbing beneath oak forest that blocks out the morning light. Cellphone service dwindles to nothing. Finally, a metal gate appears, a large "M" at its center, and soon the Cleveland Cavaliers pour out of the buses. About 60 members of the franchise gather near tables covered in white cloth, sitting atop cedar bark spread across a small clearing. They clink flutes of 2006 Dom Pérignon in toast. Nearby, all around the property, lies charred earth. Burned hillsides, stippled with the black skeletons of trees, loom ominous.

This is Mayacamas, one of Napa Valley's most iconic wineries. Not many of the Cavs have been here, but LeBron James has, and he recognizes that the area where he's standing now, the small clearing, once belonged to a building that is no more.

The fire, when it came, had raced in from the west, feeding on dry underbrush, roaring over the hills. Winds swept it along the edges of and into Mayacamas' vineyards, the intense heat threatening dormant vines harvested not long before. Workers evacuated as flames neared the winery, not knowing what -- if anything -- would survive. When staffers returned weeks later, they saw how the flames had crept to the edge of the three main buildings, licked up their sides, leaving deep black scars near the foundation. Millions in damage was caused, though the true toll will be tallied when it becomes clear which vines can still bud in the spring. But somehow the fire had devoured only one of the buildings, a 5,000-square-foot, two-story Italian villa-style structure used for hospitality and dining.
   3847. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5624193)
Just for the sake of completeness, doing the same calculations for the 2017 Boston and Cleveland series changes the point differential from 16.0 to 8.5.

Again, the numbers provided by tshipman don't prove that it is just three point variance. In fact, to me, it argues the complete opposite.


   3848. tshipman Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5624204)

The Cavaliers had a point differential in that series of 15.8 points, so making the percentages the exact same makes the difference of 8.0 ppg.


Still not evidence that it is just 3 point shooting.


why are you ignoring the 8 3pers the Cavs took with "tight" or "very tight" coverage where they hit 46%?

You're also (slightly misleadingly) adjusting the Raptors up, rather than both teams to a mean, because that allows you to minimize the difference in the point spread. Those things make it seem like you're trying to be sneaky.
   3849. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 13, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5624227)

why are you ignoring the 8 3pers the Cavs took with "tight" or "very tight" coverage where they hit 46%?


Why would I include those? For argument's sake, I will assume that each team has the ability to hit open or wide open three points at the same rates (I don't actually believe that but OK) but the ability to take and hit contested threes isn't something I am going to assume is done equally well by all teams.

You're also (slightly misleadingly) adjusting the Raptors up, rather than both teams to a mean, because that allows you to minimize the difference in the point spread. Those things make it seem like you're trying to be sneaky.

Instead of insinuating some unsavory things, how about you run the numbers yourself? I know it's not going to eliminate a point differential of 15. How about you do that, rather than just keep saying things that you haven't backed up and implying that people who don't believe it are being obstuse?
   3850. tshipman Posted: February 13, 2018 at 12:35 PM (#5624253)
Why would I include those? For argument's sake, I will assume that each team has the ability to hit open or wide open three points at the same rates (I don't actually believe that but OK) but the ability to take and hit contested threes isn't something I am going to assume is done equally well by all teams.


Because the Cavs hit 30-31% of those shots in the regular season and then 46% in the Toronto series.

Which do you think is more reflective of their true talent?

Edit: and the Cavs and Raptors were virtually identical on these shots in the regular season, of course.
   3851. Athletic Supporter wants to move your money around Posted: February 13, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5624259)
I love the fan attitude tiers!

Miserable: Detroit, Charlotte, New York, Orlando, Atlanta, Memphis, Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento


Detroit fans have got to be ecstatic I would think. They have a path to relevance now which they haven't really had for 10 years.
   3852. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5624280)
Run the numbers tshipman. The Raptors essentially took very few of those shota during the Cavaliers so giving them a better percentage doesnt make a difference. The difference in contested threes doesn't make that much difference.

You also probably need to adjust for the facr that the Cavaliers had huge leads in most od those games.

Run the numbers. Your proof is lacking.
   3853. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5624284)
Bulls fans are also solidly in the Happy bucket, as it's been long enough past the Butler trade.
   3854. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5624301)

Detroit fans have got to be ecstatic I would think. They have a path to relevance now which they haven't really had for 10 years.


I'm a Detroit fan. I don't know if I'm miserable but I'm close. I know most of the fan base is close. Most are seeing it as they gave away a lottery pick and locked themselves into a declining Blake Griffin for four years.

I know that before the three game losing streak, most had convinced themselves that this was going to turn into relevance. Probably were too happy at first and too unhappy now.

Also, I like doing these rankings. I don't know if I should come up with more tiers than just happy/miserable. Maybe should just do Contentment Rankings and try doing them 1-30.
   3855. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5624303)
At what point do we become concerned that Kawhi has suffered a permanently career altering injury?
   3856. jmurph Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5624312)
Also, I like doing these rankings. I don't know if I should come up with more tiers than just happy/miserable. Maybe should just do Contentment Rankings and try doing them 1-30.

Yeah it's tricky because, looking at Boston (as a Celtics fan), the overall season outlook is definitely positive: they have a better record than most would have predicted, the young guys have shown varying degrees of development and promise, Kyrie has fit in better than I expected, etc. But on the flip side, their aspirations- however minor or far-fetched!- of making a title run this year probably ended about 4.5 minutes into opening night. So there's that.
   3857. aberg Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:37 PM (#5624315)
It should be, but my somewhat limited sample of sports radio, newspaper, and fans suggests they are somewhat excited and happy, but with a major "waiting for the other shoe to drop" or maybe it is the Sword of Damocles feeling. I am enjoying it, but I hear a lot of ... "in the upcoming games against X they have to do Y or it will be the second sign of the apocalypse!"


I don't know if it has always been the case, but it seems that Minnesota fans generally think that they can't have nice things. Everyone knew the Vikings were doomed. The reaction to a really good Twins season was, "well they're not going to spend any money so they'll never get any better." The Wolves have improved a ton and the focus is on the fact that they're not the Warriors.
   3858. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:37 PM (#5624316)
Probably Miserable: Portland, New Orleans, Denver

This tier doesn't make sense to me, especially Denver. Jamal Murray established himself as a starting-caliber PG at minimum, and he's still 20. They have the youngest core by far of any playoff contender in the West. And Paul Millsap is expected back relatively soon. The fact that they're currently holding a playoff spot despite their big FA acquisition missing most of the season is pretty great. They're also 22-7 at home, keeping the season ticket holders happy.

I think I'd bump them up 2 tiers to the "Probably Happy" camp.

It looks like Spurs fans are more miserable than not, given the Kawhi situation, though I certainly disagree with this:
None of the role players have really stepped up this season

The Spurs have the league's 5th best record, with their star player effectively being out all year--of course there are role players who've stepped up. It might be less exciting because they're doing it mostly with defense rather than offense, but Dejounte Murray and Kyle Anderson have taken massive steps forward this season. I'll be interested to see what happens with Slo Mo in restricted free agency this summer.
   3859. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:46 PM (#5624330)
I really had no idea where to rank Denver. I feel like the record is ok and all that, but I kind of thought they were hoping for more. I realize I'm wrong.
   3860. Booey Posted: February 13, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5624338)
Why is Portland "probably miserable"? Didn't everyone know coming into the season that they were basically a 2 player team and that 45 wins and a 6th-8th seed was probably their ceiling?

I think they're firmly in the "meh" camp.
   3861. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: February 13, 2018 at 02:05 PM (#5624340)
I don't know if it has always been the case, but it seems that Minnesota fans generally think that they can't have nice things. Everyone knew the Vikings were doomed. The reaction to a really good Twins season was, "well they're not going to spend any money so they'll never get any better." The Wolves have improved a ton and the focus is on the fact that they're not the Warriors.


Yeah. I wasn't born here and didn't spend much of my youth here (my formative sports fandom happened in San Francisco just when they drafted a QB from Notre Dame in the third round), but I have lived here long enough to see it in action.

I want the Vikings to win mostly just so the Minnesotans change their face.

EDIT: The Wolves too, of course, but that wouldn't be enough, just as the Twins winning wasn't enough.
   3862. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 13, 2018 at 02:29 PM (#5624360)
Why is Portland "probably miserable"? Didn't everyone know coming into the season that they were basically a 2 player team and that 45 wins and a 6th-8th seed was probably their ceiling?

I think they're firmly in the "meh" camp.


I also wasn't quite sure what to do with Portland. I don't think they've missed expectations, and I think being a 45-win team isn't the worst thing. But they also feel like they've been in the "good not good enough" tier long enough that their fans would be starting to get restless.
   3863. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 13, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5624363)
As a non-Blazers fan who lives in Portland, most fans seem fine with it? The team is fun and competitive, and not really suffering from delusions of championship potential. I think they're solidly 'Meh', with the potential to go up if they improve the team or down if their cap inflexibility ends up biting them going forward. But for the time being it seems like they just have to make the playoffs to satisfy the fanbase.
   3864. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: February 13, 2018 at 02:59 PM (#5624406)
At what point do we become concerned that Kawhi has suffered a permanently career altering injury?


Unless I missed some major news today, this seems like a crazy overreaction. Derrick Favors had the same injury last year Kawhi first missed time with and had no athleticism last year, but looks basically like his old self (despite several other injuries scary for big men) this year.
   3865. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 13, 2018 at 03:44 PM (#5624479)
   3866. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 13, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5624487)
I've watched a lot of Portland this year and my non-expert opinion is they really have to pick one of McCollum/Lillard and trade the other. Should have at least a year ago, really. Their skill sets overlap too much; they're both high offense/low defense players and there's only one ball, which is to say that their strengths can't be fully realized when they play together but their weaknesses can be fully exploited.
   3867. Booey Posted: February 13, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5624507)
I've watched a lot of Portland this year and my non-expert opinion is they really have to pick one of McCollum/Lillard and trade the other.


They should keep McCollum. I've always had an irrational hope that since Lillard played college ball in Utah, maybe he wouldn't mind playing pro ball here, either. And last summer he confirmed it, saying in a fan chat that if the Blazers didn't want him, he'd want to play for the Jazz or the Lakers. And now he's apparently buddies with Donovan Mitchell, too. A Lillard/Mitchell/Gobert core going forward would make me very, very happy.

Unfortunately, he's locked up for several more years in Portland and I haven't heard any reports that he's disgruntled in any way. And the Jazz probably don't have enough tradeable assets to give the Blazers anyway, not without sacrificing the two core guys that they should view as untouchable (some combination of Ingles, Rubio, Favors, Crowder, or picks? Eh.) And maybe Mitchell and Lillard's skillsets would overlap a bit too much also and create the same problem the Blazers have with McCollum. But whatever. A guy can dream.

So yeah, Portland should be all in on McCollum. He's um, totally better than Lillard, anyway. I'm just looking out for the Blazers best interests.
   3868. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 13, 2018 at 04:18 PM (#5624514)
At what point do we become concerned that Kawhi has suffered a permanently career altering injury?


Why do you ask, are the 76ers medical staff consulting with the Spurs?
   3869. jmurph Posted: February 13, 2018 at 04:19 PM (#5624516)
Sources: Markelle Fultz significantly altered his jump shot over the summer

So what's the fun takeaway here for non-subscribers? Or is that pretty much it?
   3870. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 13, 2018 at 04:28 PM (#5624522)
The Blazers' problem is the rest of the roster. Olshey screwed up the rising cap as badly as any GM, and the Blazers are locked into paying 37 million to Evan Turner, Meyers Leonard, and Moe Harkless this year and 40 million next year. (Part of that is that the contracts were signed before McCollum fully blossomed; part is just overcommitting to a team that knocked off the Rockets.) Lillard and McCollum can nearly carry an offense, but if you're going to do that you need to surround them with 3 and D guys and a rim-protecting center. Nurkic is close enough to being that center, but Aminu is the only legit 3 and D guy they have. Vonleh and Harkless were both decent gambles for a team with limited options, but neither really panned out.

Everybody says they need to pick one of Lillard and McCollum, and I see the logic: they're the two pieces the Blazers have and they overlap, so flipping one to address their weakness at the wing seems like a good move. But those two guys are also almost all of the team's reliable offense. Maybe Turner would work well as a backup PG like he did before he landed the big contract with the ball in his hands more, but beyond him there's not much on the roster, and unless it's a challenge trade for a stud wing I'm not sure what trade would obviously work well.

I suspect they're not bluffing when they keep saying they plan to keep both; they're 26 and 27 and Nurkic is 23, so if they sign him this offseason they have the bad contracts as expirings (though that's not worth what it used to be either) and then a fairly clean cap sheet. There are worse places to be than with those three players, cap room, and hopefully some young players worth developing. The team has a hard ceiling in the meantime, but it seems like everyone likes each other and the town likes the team, so I don't know that they feel pressure to make a move like people seem to think they should.
   3871. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 13, 2018 at 04:34 PM (#5624527)
Probably Happy: Cleveland, Lakers, Clippers, Chicago
Let's not get crazy. There's no universe where Laker Nation is "probably happy" when the team is not one of the four best teams in the Western Conference. It's good that:
— they've mostly cleared of the Jim Buss Era contracts and
— they now have a ton of cap space coming up
— Brandon Ingram seems to really be turning into something

However,
— Lonzo Ball has underwhelmed
— they have no true stars
— they couldn't move Deng's contract
— may have gotten too excited too early on Kyle Kuzma

The organization seems to have done a full 180° since Magic and Pelinka took over, and that's great. That raises the fanbase feeling from "miserable" to "eh."
   3872. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 13, 2018 at 04:54 PM (#5624537)
Sources: Markelle Fultz significantly altered his jump shot over the summer


"I am altering my jump shot. Pray I don't alter it any further."
   3873. Booey Posted: February 13, 2018 at 04:56 PM (#5624538)
However,
— Lonzo Ball has underwhelmed
— they have no true stars
— they couldn't move Deng's contract
— may have gotten too excited too early on Kyle Kuzma


You forgot:

- You're now obligated to take both LiAngelo and LaMelo Ball, or Lonzo walks.*



* As per LaVar. Seriously.
   3874. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: February 13, 2018 at 05:17 PM (#5624548)
   3875. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 13, 2018 at 05:51 PM (#5624561)
Yeah, Portland already has a bunch of middling-to-average forwards around, so while I really like both Ingles and Crowder I can't see what Portland would do with them.

What they really would need back to move Lillard (or McCollum) is a really GOOD forward. But right now good guards are in much higher supply than good forwards. Probably the big reason the Blazars are keeping (and will likely continue to keep) both Lillard and McCollum is simply that it's really hard to get fair right-now value for either of them in a trade and the Blazers aren't at a point right now where trading either for picks and prospects makes sense.
   3876. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 13, 2018 at 06:15 PM (#5624572)
Who says no?
needs less meyers leonard.
   3877. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 13, 2018 at 06:41 PM (#5624594)
Meyers Leonard: the least useful 50/40/90 player around!
   3878. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 13, 2018 at 08:03 PM (#5624624)
The Meyers Leonard deal doesn't make the Sixers better but according to Hollinger's analysis, this one does. Who says no?
   3879. JJ1986 Posted: February 13, 2018 at 08:26 PM (#5624633)
I'm not sure there's any forward out there who's a good match for McCollum in a trade in terms of age, contract and talent. Khris Middleton maybe. Tobias Harris might help but there's no way his perceived value is high enough. Aaron Gordon would have been the most interesting option. If they're trading Dame, they're tearing it all down.
   3880. maccoach57 Posted: February 13, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5624635)
I agree with pretty much everything Hombre said in 3871, with a couple of echoes/adds:

1. The team has been lottery fodder for five consecutive seasons and has no star and no lottery pick so yes--"probably happy" is definitely not the right tier for the fanbase. The Lakers' house flooded and collapsed, and so they moved to a cheaper area. The new building site has been cleared of a lot of the junk and weeds, and they have a couple of nice pieces for the frame and new architects, but there is still no solid foundation, a huge rat in the basement that they can't get rid of, and they are stuck in the same crappy neighborhood. Long way to go.
2. Other than Miami/The Heatles, I don't think any NBA FO has signed two max guys from outside of the organization at the exact same time. Misguided belief in "Lakers Exceptionalism" repeatedly burned the Jim Buss FO and has also caused even smart media guys to write silly things about the team over the last five years. That said, unlike the Buss FO, the Maginka FO has actually cleared enough space to go for two max guys.
3. But yes, the key to this year was not the Ws and Ls, but whether Ball looked more like the next Ricky Rubio or the next Jason Kidd. Ball has some awful metrics, and while he was seemingly making some headway, he has now been out for a awhile with a knee problem. So, it is very hard to picture Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins (assuming that Magic and Pelinka want to gamble on a guy as big as a Mastodon with a busted Achilles) looking at Ball and thinking, "I want to play my age 28-32 seasons with this guy--he is a key to my shot at a ring."
   3881. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 13, 2018 at 09:48 PM (#5624657)
Steve Adams is very physical. Dominating the Cavs physically.
   3882. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 13, 2018 at 09:49 PM (#5624659)
I'm not sure there's any forward out there who's a good match for McCollum in a trade in terms of age, contract and talent. Khris Middleton maybe. Tobias Harris might help but there's no way his perceived value is high enough. Aaron Gordon would have been the most interesting option. If they're trading Dame, they're tearing it all down.
daaaaaaaarioooooooooooo sharichhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
The Meyers Leonard deal doesn't make the Sixers better but according to Hollinger's analysis, this one does. Who says no?
it's a bit lopsided. this one's better.

   3883. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 13, 2018 at 09:49 PM (#5624660)
a huge rat in the basement that they can't get rid of

danny ferry, is that you?
   3884. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 13, 2018 at 09:59 PM (#5624662)
it's a bit lopsided. this one's better.

Very symmetrical, I agree.

And from the projected effects of these trades, we have learned that whichever Plumlee is on the Hawks is absolutely crucial for their success!
   3885. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 13, 2018 at 10:02 PM (#5624663)
Cleveland is 29-0 when entering the 4th quarter ahead or tied. Considering their good but not great record and poor defense, I am surprised at that record.
   3886. JC in DC Posted: February 13, 2018 at 10:06 PM (#5624664)
They look so fresh right now, and their ball movement, especially with LBJ ON THE BENCH, has been fantastic.
   3887. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 13, 2018 at 10:13 PM (#5624665)
Westbrook looks like he has has been out for a few games.
   3888. stevegamer Posted: February 13, 2018 at 10:57 PM (#5624671)
Happy: Toronto, Boston, Milwaukee, Indiana, Philadelphia, Golden State, Houston, Minnesota, Utah


Probably too high - need to knock them down a tier. Between angst over Fultz, and misguided expectations over what happens when "The Process" finishes, there are a significant number of fans who are worried that are trying to win too soon, and should still be tanking.
   3889. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 13, 2018 at 11:22 PM (#5624676)
Probably too high - need to knock them down a tier. Between angst over Fultz, and misguided expectations over what happens when "The Process" finishes, there are a significant number of fans who are worried that are trying to win too soon, and should still be tanking.
who?

is it worth pointing out that the sixers' turnovers and opponent FTAs have dropped from a high of 18 and 28 per game in december to 15 and 23 per game in february?
they're still last in TOV% on the year, but it's not as comically outrageous as it had been. and they're up to 29th in opponent FT/FGA!

PHI ORTG/DRTG by month:
OCT: 104/108
NOV: 108/106
DEC: 107/109
JAN: 113/107
FEB: 109/99

YTD: 108/106; 15th in ORTG, 4th in DRTG

(for further reference, the 10th best ORTG/DRTG this season is 109/107, by LAC and POR, respectively)
   3890. tshipman Posted: February 14, 2018 at 02:11 AM (#5624685)
Myers Leonard is an enigma.

How is he so bad by +/- despite putting up such good numbers this year?

I guess he's just that much of a stiff on defense?
   3891. tshipman Posted: February 14, 2018 at 02:37 AM (#5624688)
This is seriously the funniest thing I've seen all year. You owe it to yourself to watch, preferably with sound.
   3892. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 14, 2018 at 02:58 AM (#5624689)
This is seriously the funniest thing I've seen all year. You owe it to yourself to watch, preferably with sound.
they can all get it. except for that old homeless guy in the hoodie.

Myers Leonard is an enigma.

How is he so bad by +/- despite putting up such good numbers this year?

I guess he's just that much of a stiff on defense?
small sample size. he's only played 8 MPG over 22 games.
   3893. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: February 14, 2018 at 08:49 AM (#5624742)
Good Laker feedback. I'm going to come up with full ranking of fan-base happiness/contentment/whatever over the all star break. Don't get too excited.
   3894. SteveF Posted: February 14, 2018 at 08:52 AM (#5624746)
Area 21 and a parody of Area 21 would be indistinguishable.
   3895. Rally Posted: February 14, 2018 at 09:17 AM (#5624762)
So, it is very hard to picture Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins (assuming that Magic and Pelinka want to gamble on a guy as big as a Mastodon with a busted Achilles) looking at Ball and thinking, "I want to play my age 28-32 seasons with this guy--he is a key to my shot at a ring."


OK with me. I just don't think George and Cousins, plus whatever the Lakers can keep from the current roster, is enough to make an exciting team. My take is that if those signings happen the Lakers probably, but no guarantee, end up with a 7-8 seed.

If they can't get Lebron, better to wait until they can get a better duo, or else just keep slowly building up the young players.
   3896. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:01 AM (#5624793)
You know, Lonzo hasn't be great - but he's been fine. Has a positive RPM - thanks largely to defense - and seems to be fine at everything but shooting. He can't shoot at all.
Having noted that, he likely will be a passable shooter, not a 36/30/48 going forward. Even without other improvements, that's a worthy starter.

(No, not a "draw" for free agents - but worthy.)
   3897. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5624808)
Lonzo Ball is shooting 48% from the free throw line? Oof.
   3898. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:54 AM (#5624836)
Pretty good behind the scenes read from Woj on the Cavs deadline day deals.

SPOILER: The Kings don't come off looking good.
   3899. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5624840)
Who says no this summer?

MIN: Skal Labissiere, Garrett Temple, Iman Shumpert
SAC: Andrew Wiggins

Shumpert and Temple are fairly useless in any half court offense, but they defend and have short-term deals. Skal seems to be unwanted in Sacramento. The Wiggins contract looks like it will cripple the Wolves and prevent them from staying competitive past next year. The Kings are the Kings.
   3900. don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all Posted: February 14, 2018 at 11:08 AM (#5624851)
Who says no this summer?

MIN: Skal Labissiere, Garrett Temple, Iman Shumpert
SAC: Andrew Wiggins

Shumpert and Temple are fairly useless in any half court offense, but they defend and have short-term deals. Skal seems to be unwanted in Sacramento. The Wiggins contract looks like it will cripple the Wolves and prevent them from staying competitive past next year. The Kings are the Kings.

trading wiggins is something we've looked at before.
MIN best chance of winning the title is if wiggins reaches his potential, but the consensus around here is that it's unlikely he'll ever do that.

that's not the right package for him, though.
if MIN trades wiggins, they have to go all in on winning while butler is A) still there and B) still young enough to carry a contender.
skal, temple and shumpert don't move the needle on that, so it's gotta be a no.
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