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Wednesday, October 11, 2017

OT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, some of whom still care about baseball playoffs, but all of whom agree the Celtics gave up too much for Irving.

Here’s the thread’s top 50 players ranking.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2017 at 11:21 AM | 3977 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   3901. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: February 14, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5624856)
I bet Wiggins would love to be on the Kings. He can make a career of putting up incredible stats on teams that go nowhere, then get traded to another bad team when his team starts to compete. He can be the new Corey Maggette.
   3902. JJ1986 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5624857)
If they trade Wiggins, they probably need to get someone who plays the 4 and can space the floor on offense. Something like this.
   3903. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 11:16 AM (#5624858)
If they trade Wiggins, they probably need to get someone who plays the 4 and can space the floor on offense. Something like this.
needs more jerryd bayless.
   3904. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: February 14, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5624871)
Wiggins to the Kings would fulfill his Rudy Gay prophecy. So it has been told to us from the gods and let us carve it into stone so all me shall take heed and tremble!
   3905. Tin Angel Posted: February 14, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5624882)
Great Lowe piece on the Jazz.
   3906. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: February 14, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5624895)
The other incentive for the Wolves is that Skal, Shumpert, and Temple can easily be moved for an upgrade, whereas there are probably only a few teams comfortable committing $148M to Wiggins through 2023. The Wolves could probably have their pick of Batum, MKG, and Marvin Williams in exchange for the expiring contracts.
   3907. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5624903)
@KyleNuebeck
One note of interest: used to be we would pretty much only see Ben Simmons shoot free throws post practice/shootaround. He has routinely been going through three-point reps with Robert Covington over the last few weeks
   3908. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 14, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5624913)
Myers Leonard is an enigma.

How is he so bad by +/- despite putting up such good numbers this year?


He's bad on defense, and he's less useful on offense than his raw numbers would suggest. He basically can't create anything for himself, and only dunks and takes wide open jumpers. He's a good enough shooter that it should work, but he has honestly the slowest jumpshot I have ever seen, so it's really easy to contest or chase him off the line. He can't defend enough to stay on the floor despite his offense, and he can't do enough on offense to stay on the floor despite his defense. If he played Netball he might be unstoppable, but he sure doesn't.
   3909. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: February 14, 2018 at 01:08 PM (#5624944)
trading wiggins is something we've looked at before.
MIN best chance of winning the title is if wiggins reaches his potential, but the consensus around here is that it's unlikely he'll ever do that.


This is true, but honestly any (reasonable) path for MN to win a title is unlikely. So the question is is the unlikely path that Wiggins gets good enough better than the unlikely path one generates when trading him - remembering that Butler is in his prime now.
   3910. jmurph Posted: February 14, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5624962)
So the question is is the unlikely path that Wiggins gets good enough better than the unlikely path one generates when trading him - remembering that Butler is in his prime now.

This is a good question, as it's basically asking: even in the event that Wiggins becomes good at some point (and right now he is very, very bad), is that likely to happen by next year, the last year of Butler's deal* before he can opt out?

In the end it's probably all for naught, because I don't think that contract could be moved. I can't imagine any team taking it on right now.

*The thing with Butler's opt out- I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him stay, but they just obviously can't have Towns and Wiggins on the max, Butler on a max, and Teague and Dieng still under contract. That's just too much money on the books.
   3911. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: February 14, 2018 at 02:07 PM (#5624983)
You forgot:

- You're now obligated to take both LiAngelo and LaMelo Ball, or Lonzo walks.*


I like Lonzo, but is that a threat or a promise?
   3912. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: February 14, 2018 at 02:26 PM (#5625001)
Area 21 and a parody of Area 21 would be indistinguishable.


The Starters podcast did a good breakdown of how the hell KG gets his hoodie to stay on his head like that.
   3913. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5625046)
The Starters podcast did a good breakdown of how the hell KG gets his hoodie to stay on his head like that.
coriolis effect?

In the end it's probably all for naught, because I don't think that contract could be moved. I can't imagine any team taking it on right now.

i still like ORL for wiggins. fournier is overpaid, and they have a lot of marginal role players they can throw in.

also, BRK.
   3914. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: February 14, 2018 at 06:22 PM (#5625205)
I just can't imagine how a team whose crunch time offense is "give Eryan Ilyasova the ball and let him bomb" got to be 18-40.

Myers Leonard is an enigma.

How is he so bad by +/- despite putting up such good numbers this year?

I guess he's just that much of a stiff on defense?


By all accounts Meyers Leonard is the chillest dude in the NBA. He's very, very good at being 7'1" with a body like a Greek god, and totally content to get paid $9 million a year to play 10 minutes a game off a ~.500 team's bench based solely on that. He's living the dream.

It's not that he doesn't put in the work. And he's a pretty smart player, as his percentages attest. He just... doesn't seem to be a competitor. With his glacial release he was probably never going to be much on offense in the NBA, but on defense is where he's fallen short of his physical potential. Smaller guys take rebounds from him and score points over him regularly.

IMO.
   3915. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 08:33 PM (#5625275)
the sixers are not a very good team without joel embiid.

this was not a good game to lose.
   3916. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 09:03 PM (#5625283)
the sixers are not a very good team without joel embiid.

this was not a good game to lose.
and now it's a 5 point game with 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
   3917. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 09:12 PM (#5625286)
and now it's a 5 point game with 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
and now it's tied.


   3918. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 09:29 PM (#5625291)
up 5 with 13 seconds left.
   3919. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 09:35 PM (#5625292)
up 2 with 4 seconds left, sixers ball
turnover on the in bounds.

wade from 25......SHORT!!!


SIXERS WINE!!!!
   3920. PJ Martinez Posted: February 14, 2018 at 09:40 PM (#5625299)
that was a nice reverse jinx in 3915
   3921. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 09:43 PM (#5625300)
...
   3922. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 09:52 PM (#5625305)
Q&A with basketball hall of famer, renowned shooter tutor, philadelphia icon(?) herb magee
...on markelle fultz.
Now, I would say this to you. I would never put him in the category of a great shooter, even when he played in college. First of all, great shooters do not shoot 65 percent at the foul line. If you’re going a whole season and shooting 65 percent from the foul line, you can’t be in the category of a great shooter. The only real test for a shooter is foul shooting and three-point shooting.
this one's from the interviewer, then back to magee:
It seems like there’s this theory that he knew he had to fix his free throws, but injured his shoulder in the process of doing so over the summer

why the kid would change his stroke, I don’t know. I know he’s not real good at the foul line, but whoever would change his stroke to look like it looked in a couple of those clips didn’t do him any favors.
I saw Billy putting him through a workout—I thought this was a pretty good idea, because it’s obviously a psychological thing with the kid. He’d throw him the ball and have him square up like he was gonna shoot, but he’d pass it back to Billy and Billy would hit him cutting to the basket for a layup or a dunk. Not a bad idea.

If the Sixers are doing certain things with him, then I would completely agree with it.

I think the problem with Fultz is simply in his head.
I’ve never heard of a guy on his level, and a guy as accomplished as he was in college just completely lose his shot. Whatever they’re doing with him, that probably is the right thing to do. The folks who run the Sixers know what they’re doing.

there’s really not a lot of mystery to it. You might be a basketball guy, or you might not be a basketball guy, but if you watch that stroke, you say, “something’s wrong with that.” I mean, that doesn’t look right. That just doesn’t look right.

I don’t have the answers; I’ve never been in the gym with the kid
   3923. PJ Martinez Posted: February 14, 2018 at 09:55 PM (#5625307)
"The @sixers Ben Simmons is just the third rookie in NBA history to record at least six triple-doubles in a season. The others are Oscar Robertson (26) and Magic Johnson (7)."
   3924. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:07 PM (#5625309)
that was a nice reverse jinx in 3915
nah. the sixers were buried when i posted that. even when they tied the game, i thought they'd wind up losing by double digits.


i think the sixers might have stumbled onto something with a simmons/redick/belinelli/booker/holmes lineup. there's not a lot of defense there, but they can launch 3s and crash the glass well enough to make up for it. the sixers just need to find one lineup that can keep its own head above water while embiid's on the bench, and this one seems promising.
   3925. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:12 PM (#5625310)
Get Dickie v out of my NBA games.
   3926. PJ Martinez Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:25 PM (#5625311)
He's not the only factor, but the Celtics miss Marcus Smart.
   3927. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: February 14, 2018 at 10:30 PM (#5625313)
Does DeAndre wear the closest thing to short shorts in the league?
   3928. Oriole Tragic: doomed to mysterious ignomy Posted: February 14, 2018 at 11:02 PM (#5625317)
@3927: Brandon Ingram?
   3929. Booey Posted: February 15, 2018 at 12:08 AM (#5625324)
Not their most impressive win during the streak, but still; 11 straight entering the All Star break. I'll take it.
   3930. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 15, 2018 at 01:58 AM (#5625332)
Does DeAndre wear the closest thing to short shorts in the league?
boban.
   3931. jmurph Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5625365)
He's not the only factor, but the Celtics miss Marcus Smart.

Yeah they're kind of broken right now, I don't what's going on. Some of it is definitely normal regression from Tatum and others, but that's not it entirely. The ball isn't moving, it's just blah all around.

   3932. JC in DC Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:41 AM (#5625371)
Boston is 40-19. I'm not sure you're seeing anything other than some midseason blues.

I have a crazy affection for Rajon Rondo, and wish NY had added him to tutor Frank. I love the way he plays when he's not acting up.
   3933. jmurph Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:49 AM (#5625384)
Speaking of Rondo.

I (obviously) enjoyed the KG/Pierce/Rondo/Allen Celtics, but they appear to have all turned into Goose Gossage and it's all pretty embarrassing.

   3934. maccoach57 Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:52 AM (#5625385)
Boston is in great shape overall/big picture, but they have just been regressing to the level of talent on the roster. They have a 37-22 PYTH, and Irving and Horford aren't Chris Paul and Tim Duncan.

But to be 40-19 without Hayward is great.
   3935. jmurph Posted: February 15, 2018 at 10:01 AM (#5625399)
JC/RR: oh yeah, no question it's been a good overall season post-Hayward injury. What's frustrating right now is I watch them and can't figure out how they get better, other than "make more shots." Which I'll take, for the record!
   3936. jmurph Posted: February 15, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5625405)
"The @sixers Ben Simmons is just the third rookie in NBA history to record at least six triple-doubles in a season. The others are Oscar Robertson (26) and Magic Johnson (7)."

Hey stiggles, I remember you doing an over/under on triple doubles for Simmons before the season. Do you remember the number? I think I took the over, it might be my only correct guess this year.

   3937. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 15, 2018 at 10:53 AM (#5625441)
Q&A with basketball hall of famer, renowned shooter tutor, philadelphia icon(?) herb magee


I hope that the Sixers reach out to Magee once his coaching season is over. Magee has been at Philadelphia Textile/Philadelphia U/Thomas Jefferson U (same school) for 58 years as player and coach!
   3938. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 15, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5625536)
Hey stiggles, I remember you doing an over/under on triple doubles for Simmons before the season. Do you remember the number? I think I took the over, it might be my only correct guess this year.

found it:
more triple doubles this season:
lonzo ball
ben simmons
every other rookie
1138. jmurph Posted: July 19, 2017 at 05:14 PM (#5496474)
over/under:
6% chance lebron signs with the sixers next summer

0 honestly feels too high.
there was only one rookie triple double last year. the record appears to be 4, held by jason kidd. the only active players to have multiple triple doubles as rookies are chris paul, michael carter williams, elfrid payton and blake griffin.
Hmmm. Okay I'll take Simmons then, why not. I could see him getting a couple if he's actually going to be the primary ballhandler.


Every other rookie combined? I'd go with that, not as a slight against the other two, but how many rookie triple doubles are we even likely to see? Without looking at history, I'd be surprised if it's more than a handful per season?


here's a few more blasts from the pasts:
if simmons is lamar odom, that would be a disappointing outcome

best case scenario, if embiid is david robinson, simmons is lebron, fultz is dwyane wade, saric is larry bird and if the sixers win 10 of the next 12 titles, maybe two of them wind up in the top 10. probably not; playing together means they'd sacrifice a ton of black ink, but maybe.

the phillies called up pete orr today. this makes me way too happy relative to the likely impact the move will actually have.
they need to rip this medical staff apart and start fresh.

the sheer number of misdiagnoses makes me feel like a bulls fan, and the terrible communication of information makes me feel like a knicks fan. it's the ####### worst.

this was BEFORE MARKELLE ####### FULTZ ####!! ####!!

at this point, the best explanation i can figure is that josh harris killed edmund dante's children and then hired him to be the sixers' medical director
a not entirely batshit crazy possibility:
sign jrue holiday
trade saric, okafor, 2017 top 5 draft pick, 2019 SAC #1 for jimmy butler
draft jayson tatum

starting lineup:
holiday / butler / covington / simmons / embiid

bench:
G: mcconnell/bayless/stauskas
W: tatum/luwawu/henderson/anderson
B: holmes/FA/draft pick

Standoffish though Larry Bird may have been, the Sixers did indeed make an offer for the Pacers forward. Multiple sources told Liberty Ballers the Sixers offered Indiana their choice of one of the Sixers’ young bigs, Robert Covington, and at least two first round picks for [paul george].

again, not an offer, just a conversation starter, how close would a package of saric, embiid and jaylen brown come to getting jimmy butler?
Do you want a serious response or a joke response?

Can the Sixers hire a doctor from anywhere other than Hollywood upstairs medical college? At this point I'd even take someone from rutgers.
just spitting in the wind, maybe something like this is doable:
IND: dario saric, furkan korkmaz, bobby portis, #23
CHI: josh jackson, jahlil okafor, 2018 LAL #1
PHI: paul george, jimmy butler

If you guys don't start spelling Hayward's name correctly Booey is going to lose it.
   3939. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: February 15, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5625545)
Philadelphia Textile/Philadelphia U/Thomas Jefferson U (same school)


Wow, Thomas Jefferson University, the prestigious medical school, finally merged with an actual university so it's not so confusing anymore? Very interesting.

Should have renamed themselves Philadelphia Textile Medical School.
   3940. Booey Posted: February 15, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5625582)
If you guys don't start spelling Hayward's name correctly Booey is going to lose it.


I'm no longer contractually obligated to correct misspellings of Heighword's name. In fact, I encourage it. So misspell to your hearts desire.

(But misspellings of Gobert or Mitchell's names remain fighting words, of course)
   3941. jmurph Posted: February 15, 2018 at 02:29 PM (#5625602)
I'm no longer contractually obligated to correct misspellings of Heighword's name. In fact, I encourage it. So misspell to your hearts desire.

I think I'm the one who wrote that initial warning, so as a Celtics fan I'm now obligated to carry the burden.
   3942. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: February 15, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5625610)
Thank you, jmurph. Don't let these fools besmirch Heywurd's name.
   3943. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: February 15, 2018 at 02:52 PM (#5625621)
I wish I could forget how to spell Heyward's name. Different Heyward, same point.
   3944. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 15, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5625663)
Heh. Word.
   3945. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 15, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5625674)
sixers remaining schedule:
good teams (3) : CLE, @CLE, MIN
comparable teams (8) : @WAS*, @MIL, MIL*, @MIA, @MIA, IND, @DET*, DEN
awful teams (16): @ATL, @ATL, @BRK, BRK*, BRK, @CHI, CHA*, @CHA, CHA, @CHA, DAL, MEM, @NYK, NYK, ORL, @ORL*
(*star indicates 2nd game of a B2B)

if they can win 20 of those 27, they'll hit 50 wins for the season.
that's not gonna happen.
but it might.

   3946. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 15, 2018 at 05:48 PM (#5625748)
Lonzo is unequivocally loyal to his father and his family. He's also constantly reminded of how important that loyalty is.

Take, for example, the $5.2 million house the family bought in Chino Hills, referred to as the "Ball Estate" in the Facebook Watch show "Ball in the Family." Property records show it was purchased by an LLC in August and transferred into Lonzo Ball's name in late December. That LLC's name? Family Always Matters.

When asked whose house it was, Lonzo Ball said it was his dad's.
some aspects of the Ball family business have been unmitigated successes -- most notably the Facebook Watch show. It has been filled with incredible content: LaVar launching a new shoe company, LiAngelo's arrest in China and departure from UCLA, Tina Ball's ongoing recovery from a stroke, LiAngelo and LaMelo playing in Lithuania -- and LaVar being LaVar.

Each episode of "Ball in the Family," which is now in its second season, has drawn over 1.2 million views, with individual episode highs of 26.8 million for the first-season premiere

...It also has been quite lucrative for the Ball family. According to multiple sources close to the situation, the family was paid "millions" of dollars to do the show.
The Ball family also has brought quite a bit of prosperity to the Lithuanian club that signed LiAngelo and LaMelo, Vytautas

...Live streams of the team's games have drawn millions of views on the website Ballislife, a Facebook partner. Proceeds from those live streams, as well as increased ticket sales and Big Baller Brand's five-figure sponsorship, have helped the club pay off its old debts, get money for new players and pay their current players consistently, according to Lithuanian journalist Donatas Urbonas.

link
   3947. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: February 15, 2018 at 06:01 PM (#5625755)
Is that article for real? Who are these people who are fans of LaVar Ball's lifestyle brand? I thought he was just getting media attention as a laughingstock. It's like when there's an NBA player from a country that has never had an NBA player before and he gets massive coverage no matter how bad he is. Except this time the country is Southern California.
   3948. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: February 15, 2018 at 06:18 PM (#5625761)
Whatever else is true, the NBA is first and foremost an entertainment product, and a lot of people find LaVar Ball entertaining, whether as a laughingstock or just a larger-than-life personality. It ain't me, but it makes some sense.
   3949. JuanGone..except1game Posted: February 15, 2018 at 06:33 PM (#5625769)
Whatever else is true, the NBA is first and foremost an entertainment product, and a lot of people find LaVar Ball entertaining, whether as a laughingstock or just a larger-than-life personality. It ain't me, but it makes some sense.
I know the demographics skew old to ancient on this board, but everything that I've seen is that young people love the Ball Family. First anecdote that I heard was Stugotz (LeBatard show) saying how a dozen boys at his daughter's school were huddled around a cell phone one day watching a Lithuanian game during school. I since asked a few boys in our church and they were consistent in actually having watched at least a few games of Ball 2&3 and their show consistently. It makes sense that there was room for a sports Kardashian family that speaks to a younger generation right or wrong, and its clearly BBB.
   3950. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 15, 2018 at 06:59 PM (#5625781)
is it worth pointing out that kyle kuzma and jayson tatum are both under 50% TS% since january 1?

in both cases, it's about a 20 game sample, so it's not some 3 game sample.

and i agree it's probably just them hitting the rookie wall.

anyway, the thought was provoked by this article:
With both Kuzma and Tatum, character, work ethic and loving basketball were all driving forces to their current success as much as talent. Sure, if you told people that both of these players would be this caliber of shooter, in retrospect they would have been ranked higher. But that’s not the point. The point is that both paired foundational skill with positional size, athleticism and the drive to improve that trumped college context and performance.


   3951. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: February 15, 2018 at 07:08 PM (#5625784)
Mitchell's efficiency has gone down lately too. I would think that's pretty normal for rookies not used to playing this many games.
   3952. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 15, 2018 at 07:27 PM (#5625790)
one more blast from the past, on lottery night 2017, after the sixers got the #3 pick and the lakers pick got kicked to the next year:
Kevin Pelton‏ @kpelton
(*whispers*) I think this might be the best outcome for the Sixers. Big fan of the 2018 Draft.

there were no worst case scenarios for the sixers. tonight was important, but not essential.

getting 3 gives them their pick of every non-ball/fultz prospect. the 6 or 7 prospects after ball/fultz are roughly in the same tier, so if the sixers stay put, they get their pick. if they want to move down, they can move down 3 or 4 or 5 spots and still get a prospect who's comparable to the guy they'd get at #3.
possible (likely?) sixers starting lineup on opening day:
G: ben simmons - 6'11
G: josh jackson - 6'8
F: robert covington - 6'9
F: dario saric - 6'10
C: joel embiid - 7'2

that's a lot of length (/said ripley to the android bishop)
oh, and this one's good, too:
joel embiid is transcendent, ben simmons is a stud and the east is godawful. the window is open and the sixers should be expected to make the playoffs.
there are no bad outcomes for the sixers this year, only good and great ones. last year was worth celebrating since getting ben simmons is a franchise changing outcome, but there isn't anyone in this year's draft who is of that caliber.
oh, how naive.
as i've watched fultz video for the last few days, i tend to see his glass more and more half empty*. i don't see fultz make a lot of spectacular plays or fun plays, i see a guy who's grinding. i see a guy who makes plays look harder than they should be. the difference is even more stark since i've been switching between his video and ball's and fox's video and they make great plays look so smooth and so effortless.

*to be clear, i'm not taking fultz out of my top 5, but i'm seeing cracks in his video that i didn't see in his stats.
   3953. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 15, 2018 at 07:44 PM (#5625799)
Am I the only person who remains optimistic Fultz will get his issues sorted out, for next year if not this one? There's obviously a non-zero chance he'll have the yips forever, but if it's mostly a weird muscular strength/imbalance thing, he should still be able to ball once his shot gets unborked.
   3954. PJ Martinez Posted: February 15, 2018 at 07:52 PM (#5625801)
if it's mostly a weird muscular strength/imbalance thing

That seems like a big if.
   3955. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 15, 2018 at 08:05 PM (#5625810)
Fair enough, but it seems like it's:
a) a shoulder injury/issue
b) his form is all jacked up
c) mental
Two of the three seem like there is a good chance they're fully fixable, and yet he gets talked about like he's doomed. It's weird, fairly unprecedented situation, but I still think he's more likely to be close to the player he was drafted to be than to wash out of the league in mysterious ignomy.
   3956. PJ Martinez Posted: February 15, 2018 at 08:15 PM (#5625814)
I agree that "doomed" is too strong, but there's always uncertainty with draft picks, even no. 1's. In other words, "the player he was drafted to be" was never a sure thing. And what's happening now has to be factored -- as best it can be (which is admittedly not very precisely) -- into the projection going forward. What's more, the poor free throw shooting, which seemed like a relatively minor red flag before, now looms larger.

He could still end up being a great player, but the odds of that don't seem very high to me. A solid player, sure, but multiple All Star? Seems doubtful.
   3957. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: February 15, 2018 at 08:21 PM (#5625817)
I think if he gets the yips under control he still has about the same chance of becoming an all star as before. I don't expect the Sixers would move him anytime soon, but if they did I think a team with a good development track record would be smart to buy low.
   3958. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: February 15, 2018 at 08:33 PM (#5625827)
I agree that "doomed" is too strong, but there's always uncertainty with draft picks, even no. 1's.


I looked at this during the last draft (can't find the post), but #1's actually have a really strong track record. I think something like 2/3 have made an All-Star game, and most of the true busts were either seen as big reaches at the time (Anthony Bennett, Kwame Brown) or had injury problems (Oden). Olowokandi is I believe the only true bust in recent history who didn't fit into one of those categories, and then you have Bargnani and Joe Smith as solid rotation players, and then it's all All-Stars. Even the Kandi Man racked up 500 games in the league. If Fultz truly isn't injured and doesn't go on to have a solid or better NBA career, it would be pretty noteworthy.

[I think he's injured.]
   3959. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:07 PM (#5625840)
Nikola Jokic with a triple double, in the first half.
   3960. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:53 PM (#5625858)

is it worth pointing out that kyle kuzma and jayson tatum are both under 50% TS% since january 1?


It may well be natural regression, but some have posited a link to Tatum's dislocated pinky on Dec. 20.
   3961. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:57 PM (#5625859)
The Bucks have had the best defensive stats in the league since they fired Kidd, based mainly on playing an easy schedule and their opponents shooting a league-worst percentage from 3. That has, uh, corrected itself against Denver tonight. The Nuggets are 22 of 34 from 3 with 10 minutes left in the game.
   3962. Oriole Tragic: doomed to mysterious ignomy Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:57 PM (#5625860)
@3959: Saw your post and expected that Denver was playing the SunKings or something. Surprised to see it was the Deer!

Bucks announcers said that MIL has best 3p-defense (assuming they mean 3P% allowed ) since the coaching change. Wondering how much of that is Brogdon.

Edit: splitting a Coke with Jaw.
   3963. Oriole Tragic: doomed to mysterious ignomy Posted: February 15, 2018 at 09:59 PM (#5625861)
I guess the BBTF answer should be "variancers gonna variance," right?
   3964. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: February 15, 2018 at 10:39 PM (#5625865)
Jokic had himself a day, 30 points on 14 FGA, 17 assists, and 15 boards. 8 turnovers as well.
   3965. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: February 15, 2018 at 10:58 PM (#5625867)
More Jokic fun facts courtesy of Rotoworld:
He recorded the quickest triple-double based on his playing time at just 14:33 played to break Jim Tucker's record of 17 minutes back in 1955. Jokic also hit the triple-double mark with 1:54 left in the second quarter to make it the quickest in the last 20 years based on game-clock time. The Joker also joins James Harden and Larry Bird as the only players with at least 30 points, 15 boards and 15 dimes in a game over the last 35 years.
   3966. tshipman Posted: February 15, 2018 at 11:12 PM (#5625873)
Bucks announcers said that MIL has best 3p-defense (assuming they mean 3P% allowed ) since the coaching change. Wondering how much of that is Brogdon.


Is this bait? I can't tell.
   3967. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: February 15, 2018 at 11:44 PM (#5625879)
Fair enough, but it seems like it's:
a) a shoulder injury/issue
b) his form is all jacked up
c) mental
Two of the three seem like there is a good chance they're fully fixable, and yet he gets talked about like he's doomed. It's weird, fairly unprecedented situation, but I still think he's more likely to be close to the player he was drafted to be than to wash out of the league in mysterious ignomy.

B: that's a given.
A: i think we can confidently assume there was, and likely remains, a physiological issue that's causing pain and/or restricting fultz's shoulder mobility.
C: i think this is likely an issue because of the double-clutching, but it's possibly not.

i think it's likely that B led to A and A led to C, and now all of those issues are tangled together. even if he fixes one or two of them, the other one could still leave his shot a useless wreck.


getting back to the "scapular imbalance"; there are two broad categories of injury: chronic and acute. when embiid and simmons and noel missed whole seasons due to injury, i was pretty confident that none of them were chronic issues -- yes, even embiid. embiid broke his foot, and at some point, rebroke it. it may only have been wishcasting, but i thought that once the injury healed, it wouldn't be an issue in the future. i felt the same way about simmons. even though he reinjured himself, once it healed, it would not limit him in the future.

i have no confidence that the same is true for fultz and i think this is likely to be a chronic issue going forward. even if he recovers his UW form, i think he'll always be an awkward shot away from tweaking something in his shoulder and setting himself back to where he is now.

i haven't seen anyone describe how this "scapular imbalance" is manifesting itself in fultz's shot, but i wouldn't be shocked if something in his shoulder is cracking like a knuckle when he tries to shoot.
i also wouldn't be shocked if something like this had been an issue for him for years and he'd always just shot through it. that is, until some kind of dam broke over the summer.
that could also explain why the sixers originally encouraged him to play through it. they may have thought it was something that comes and goes for him, and he just needed to rub some dirt on it and stop being a sissy.



wow.

i did not realize i was this pessimistic about fultz until putting it into words just now.
   3968. . . . . . . Posted: February 16, 2018 at 12:41 AM (#5625893)
I still think best guess is neurological. The weird stiffness in his motions just looks like a focal dystonia to me. Reminds me of the guys who all of a sudden can’t hit the putter. I think he’s ######,
   3969. Oriole Tragic: doomed to mysterious ignomy Posted: February 16, 2018 at 10:44 AM (#5626017)
@3966: not sure what you mean. I don't follow the Bucks closely, but I thought that Brogdon was one of their better perimeter defenders. I also thought he was hurt and therefore out of the DEN game.

But then I remembered that variance is supposed to be the explanation for ridiculous 3P-shooting nights. Although, I do still wonder if Brogdon would have put at least a little bit of a damper on that.

I guess I'm wondering if DEN would have varianced as hard as they did against the Bucks if Brogdon was in the game.
   3970. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: February 16, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5626019)
Not saying this is related to Fultz, just wondering: Several baseball players have had their careers cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome. Has that ever happened to a basketball player?
   3971. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: February 16, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5626046)
I think the biggest explanation for Milwaukee's bounce back is the teams they've played are awful.

I do think it was time for Kidd to go, but we'll see. This team has some fatal flaws to it. Not enough 3 point shooting and not enough rebounding. There are little things on the margins (giving up too many 3 point shots, fouling too much) that I think was somewhat on Kidd and their weird "style" of defense.
   3972. JJ1986 Posted: February 16, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5626093)
Brogdon has been out for awhile.
   3973. JC in DC Posted: February 17, 2018 at 12:00 AM (#5626325)
So has this thread.
   3974. tshipman Posted: February 17, 2018 at 02:01 AM (#5626335)
@3966: not sure what you mean. I don't follow the Bucks closely, but I thought that Brogdon was one of their better perimeter defenders. I also thought he was hurt and therefore out of the DEN game.

But then I remembered that variance is supposed to be the explanation for ridiculous 3P-shooting nights. Although, I do still wonder if Brogdon would have put at least a little bit of a damper on that.


Sorry, I post a lot about 3p variance.

Individual defenders and indeed teams have shown very little ability to consistently effect opponent 3p shooting.

Particularly in a single game, the most likely explanation is just random chance. I don't know what it would take to consider something else ... like 100% 3p shooting on a large volume? I dunno, the priors should be pretty strong. If a team hit 40/40 3pers against another team, I guess I would consider that there might be something there in that game.
   3975. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 17, 2018 at 03:32 AM (#5626341)
So has this thread.
All Star weekend is a fun-killer.
   3976. TFTIO is Lounging from the flat one Posted: February 17, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5626385)
Staying st our LAX hotel is a large contingent of NBA Basketball Without Borders giant teenagers. It is very strange to be, at 6’3” tall, y some distance the shortest man at the breakfast buffet.
   3977. Tin Angel Posted: February 17, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5626451)
New NBA thread here.
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