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Sure, but the Nets are talking about closing a deal for Joe Johnson, who has four years and over 90M on his deal. That is the headline story at ESPN NBA right now. That is why we are having this discussion.
Chris Broussard tweeted that of Nets trade for Johnson, they are "out of the running" for Howard.
Exactly what I wanted to hear - thanks! Sign and trade deals have to be at least 3 years - the other two are a technicality / we're paying him extra in year 1 to do this for us.
So... am I delusional or are we now potentially a player for Howard next year? He's from Atlanta, is friends w/ Morrow (we'll have his bird rights) and Josh Smith (same, if we don't trade him first). In that pie in the sky scenario: Dwight + Horford + Smith? + some two guard who can hit threes + Teague ... interesting. Granted, there's a lot of ifs in this notion.
Oh, we also swapped Marvin Williams for Devin Harris (one year left in his deal).
So, basically the Nets just traded to become the Hawks, and the Hawks just traded to get cap room and a lottery pick in 2013?
Harris has played like crap recently, but Harris at his best is a lot better than Marvin at his best.
What if they trade Horford for Howard now? Would they then have enough cap room next year to add Paul to Smith + Howard.
Would Paul/Smith/Howard be notably better than Teague/Smith/Horford/Howard?
Sure, and and with JJ they can offer Howard $0. Maybe Williams takes the money and plays on a team that will likely be locked into the 5th seed or so. And maybe he doesn't.
DK-
Howard is from Atlanta, so that may be exactly what Ferry is trying to do.
Would Paul/Smith/Howard be notably better than Teague/Smith/Horford/Howard?
Well, depending on who else you get, but yes. Paul is an enormous boon to an offense.
Wallace turns 30 in three weeks; I was a year off on him. But the Nets will be paying those guys big money when they are 32-33-34 years old (counting DWill if he stays).
On a different note, any chance they can get Howard for Joe Johnson?
tripon: It was Billy Knight, not Billy King who used to run the Hawks.
I've seen some criticism of ATL picking up Harris, saying 'they don't need two point guards!'. This:
1) misses the point of the deal
2) ignores that Harris might be the better player
3) also is predicated on ATL not playing both Harris and Teague at the same time, which I think could work (relative to other likely options).
That NJ roster does not look to be particularly good defensively.
Every team has questions, but these seem like fundamental ones. You're not asking whether Johnson will fall off a cliff; you're asking whether he'll play like he did two years ago.
We'll see what shakes loose, but I would not want to bet them to be #2 in the East. That 4th/5th prediction seems sound if many (not all) things work out for them.
I am thoroughly unexcited by these Brooklyn moves because A) I find it hard to believe that they have enough information to have ruled out Howard and B) it feels more like an extension of the Devin Harris era than an actual new start. It's bland players, bad contracts, and I feel like losing in the first round in the NBA playoffs is basically nothing. I may be overly picky. (I'm sure we all agree that Deron leaving would render it a disaster, so I'm not even considering that.)
The Euro that they are rumored to be signing with the MLE would be a good candidate to stretch the floor (takes a lot and hits around a .360 of threes) other than that, you've got Johnson and Williams. So if the Euro becomes their crunch time 4 then you've got 3 out of 5 that can hit uncontested 3's.
Defense is definitely a problem, and likely the reason that a 4/5 pick is safe. I am assuming that Johnson can implement a decent defense. Anyway, we'll see.
Edit: Spivey, you'd have to take Williams over Chauncey
No I don't. Chauncey's prime PER and WS are both better than Williams prime, Williams hasn't been very good in 2 years, and Chauncey was the better defender.
Disagree. There is no "NBA HOF" of course, but I think you can make a good case for Billups in Springfield.
A Wallace/Williams/Johnson/Lopez Nets teams feels like the Mutumbo/Laettner/Smith/Blaylock Hawks teams. A lot of decent players and possibility for a 50-55 win season, but it's not getting you a title.
Smart moves, Danny Ferry! You got yourself freedom to turn this team into a contender! You've got a guy (Horford) who fits in pretty well on a championship team. You got yourself the flexibility to pick up an elite player next year (Paul or Howard). Now, a lot of bad things can happen between now and then, but it's not like the Hawks were going anywhere anyways!
So congratulations, Danny Ferry! You traded the guy with the worst contract in the league and you got a couple guys in the deal who don't completely suck. Nice way to start things off.
I actually don't hate this move for
NJBKN, but it had to be said.I might be on board with this if Howard had been quoted as saying that his lifelong dream was to play for Mark Cuban, or to don Celtic Green, Bulls Red, or Laker Purple-and-Gold. But since Howard specifically said "Brooklyn" I can't see trading for Joe Johnson on the same day those quotes hit the internet. Perhaps events will prove me wrong.
This makes no sense to me whatsoever.
* I don't have the foggiest clue as to how the amnestying business works, but I assume the Nets can't amnesty Johnson after trading for him.
Correct--you can only amnesty guys who signed with you pre-CBA. About three days ago, I was BSing with a Lakerfan pal about Howard and I told him that since Smith and Howard are buddies and Howard is from ATL, that maybe Ferry would try to position the Hawks for a run at Howard and Paul in 2013--get the hometown hero and correct the huge drafting error all in one shot, and turn the franchise around. I said, "Of course, they will have to amnesty Joe Johnson." Didn't see this trade coming at all.
this is a pretty stunning development.
Sure. The only way this makes any sense at all is if they determined for whatever reason that they couldn't get Howard (or if, per Broussard, they could get Howard anyway). No argument that choosing Joe Johnson over Howard is lunacy.
Absolutely, and I love it. I say that as no fan of the Nets, or certainly of Howard, but this is fun stuff. I hope they pull it off. I have absolutely no idea how they're going to fill out the rest of the roster. Anyone smart enough on the salary cap to explain that?
Exactly. The ORL/BRK proposal makes a ton of sense for Brooklyn, but for Orlando?
1) How much do you pay Lopez and Humphries so that this makes sense for them (the latter presumably takes a megabucks deal with only the first yr guaranteed - Lopez would want something firmer)?
2) If you've met that criteria, how do those guys make sense for Orlando? Do they get rid of easily their #2 guy, RFA Ryan Anderson (who's limited to the four spot)? If not - Lopez/Anderson is pretty rough defensively and you've got an exceptionally expensive backup four. (EDIT: I guess Kris could be s/t'd to a third team)
3) The picks - how valuable are 3 picks at the bottom of the first round (as a Nets club w/ Howard-Wallace-Johnson-Williams should be very, very good, aging or no)?
4) Brooks is nice, but not a sufficient enticement for ORL to do something.
My guess is that this is, in part, a bluff to get other clubs to raise their bids (on Orlando's part - I'm sure Brooklyn does this deal).
****
In the environment we're talking about, Brooklyn needs to keep Wallace - though maybe not for quite so much money.
If you're Atlanta - and want Howard - and Howard's willing to go there (the biggest if) - what kind of deal can you make that will appease Orlando? Core of the deal is Horford, Teague, and a bunch of low 1sts (including Jenkins). Pachulia goes too.
Horford (who's better than Lopez and is already signed to a team friendly deal) is obviously the key - a deceptively good player who I can see appealing to Hennigan. Atlanta's limited ability to take on bad contracts is a question - that may require help from other teams (Harris is our best tool here, but he can't be combined with other dudes in a trade. Could do something involving sending out Morrow, getting Duhon - again, with help).
Frustrating part of this daydream is that I <<as a Hawks fan>> can construct a strong narrative as to why Howard would want to go (beyond hometown and friendship - Howard supposedly is attracted to getting to build something with the Nets because they haven't done anything before. But the Hawks arguably have a more pathetic history - never going past round 2 in the playoffs since moving to Atlanta. Ever.)
OTOH, you've got to deal w/ Atlanta ownership (versus Daddy Warbuckses in BRK and DAL) + moving Horford and taking on bad deals makes it hard for us to get that third guy (supposedly Chris Paul, in people's wishcasting).
I am VERY unaccustomed to talking about sports with my fanboy hat on as opposed to pretending that I'm reasoned and fair - it's nice.
I don't even know that it does. It makes them legit contenders, for sure, but they're really thin, and without draft picks, they have no way to get better. They have a two to four year window or so. Is that contention window really all that great?
Of the 29 people named "Williams" to play in the NBA since 2000, 9 have played for the Nets. 4 of them this past season, of course.
Aaron
Deron
Eric
Jordan
Marcus
Sean
Shelden
Shawne
Terrence
I'm not sure that's right; seems to me their window would be as long as Howard is Howard and Deron is very good or even above average. So they should have a 5-6 year window, depending on if Howard would get to sign a 5 year deal after next year, or just a 4 (I'm unclear on the rules).
I don't know. The Knicks cast a very long shadow - they are the one team that unites everybody in NYC. Even when the Knicks were in the midst of the Isiah/Marbury catastrophe and the Nets were going to NBA finals, the Nets didn't make any serious inroads to the Knicks fanbase. Brooklyn is a thing now, and the Jay-Z connection gives them a hook, but I don't think a 45 win team that everybody knows is playoff cannon fodder is enough to break the stranglehold the Knicks have on NYC (even after the Knicks did everything they could to piss it away over the past 10 years). If this Nets team is a 55 win contender, it's a different story, but I think that's an awfully optimistic outlook on the projected roster (assuming the Howard trade doesn't happen). Brooklyn has everybody's attention right now - this is the time when they can swing for the fences, build a fanbase and become the Mets, if they're lucky. If they muddle through with some teams that, while good, lack a compelling reason to watch, in 4-5 years the novelty will have worn off, everybody will be bored and they'll just end up like the Islanders.
I have no idea how NBA cap logic works, so someone who pays attention to the league with some degree of regularity, please explain my errors to me in slow, uncomplicated English, but:
1. Dwight Howard would accept a trade "only to BKN." - so...
2. Danny Ferry traded BKN a contract that makes it harder to trade for Howard. - while...
3. Clearing cap space for major FA acquisitions in 2013. - when...
4. Chris Paul and Dwight Howard are available (and Josh Smith is up for resigning as well.)
So, assuming Howard doesn't sign and extend long term with BKN, what prevents ATL from signing all three of those guys in 2013, and going to war with a team of:
CP3
John Jenkins
Josh Smith
Al Horford
Dwight Howard
With some combination of Teague + Heinrich + Zaza in the support roles? Is that financially feasible?
I'm pretty sure they can only fit CP3 and Howard if they move Horford or don't re-sign Smith. Horford + other pieces for Howard makes sense if Howard would sign an extension, and is much better than anything the Nets can offer.
I don't get this move for Utah. Do they really need another 6'9 frontcourt player, let alone one as run-of-the-mill as Marvin Williams.
I'm not sure it even matters that much. As Miami just showed (and other teams have before that) star power rules in the playoffs, and it's entirely possible to win titles with a couple of big stars and not much else. A Howard/Williams duo with Johnson/Wallace/etc as a supporting cast is a perennial 55-60 win team, IMO. The Magic reached the NBA Finals and the ECF with back to back 59 win seasons with a worse team than that.
I didn't get this move either, but I wasn't a fan of Harris and his inconsistency, so I saw the trade as basically treading water.
Horford just turned 26, is a very good positional defender who can play the four or five, but not a rim protector. Decidedly well above average passer, plus rebounder, so-so scorer. PER in the 19-20 range, WS/48 ~0.18. Missed most of last year with an injury - health projects fine going forward.
Bynum is a bit over a year younger and has been arguably more productive. 5-year PER of 21.3, WS/48 of 0.195. High percentage post scorer, good shotblocker, very good rebounder, not a super passer, pure center. Not as good at position d as Horford. Has had issues with injuries and low min/g in the past, but not last year. Will be a free agent after next season - should be able to re-up him, but it won't be cheap. Intangibles not up to Horford's levels. In terms of tools, the more talented of the two - also, a better fit with Anderson.
This ignores, of course, other differences b/w what ATL and LAL could offer.
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If NJ lands Howard, they are sitting pretty. They retain the full 5M MLE (not the mini one) and would use it on a stretch four from Europe who I'm not big on but is coming off a good season. They'd also have an exception for a bit under 2M that might go to an aging but still valuable Jason Kidd. Anyway, a lot of this is immaterial - with that lineup, you'd have a lot of leeway.
They'll also be spending HUGE money in taxes in a few years, but rumor is that their owner is cool with that. (wink)
I'd like to add that you don't really want to run out a front line of Howard/Horford/Smith. Horford's really good, but he isn't as good as Howard, and he does mostly the same things. Pushing Smith out on the perimeter is bad because that is hands-down the worst part of his game. Trading Horford is a better use of his value and allows you to pick up more quality off the bench or in the backcourt.
I don't think that Howard ends up on the Hawks. I realize that it's fun to speculate, but I'd say that it's pretty darn unlikely. Most likely destination for him next year is still Orlando. Second most likely is probably Brooklyn and then after that LA.
Well if Williams' improvement from 3 last year is real he'll help space the offense, and from what I've been reading he's an above average defensive 3 (and awful at the 4, which he should never have to play). This also means that Howard is unlikely to be back, which is a huge plus. I think it's a solid trade for both sides since the Jazz also have Mo Williams, who is about equal to Harris but a better fit for the Jazz. Harris had spurts where he looked like someone capable of blowing by his defender and getting 20+ PPG, but he almost never maintained it for more than a quarter. I'm not sure if it's just age and injuries or something with the Jazz...
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Yeah, I see no reason why Orlando is going to help Howard get to BKN, and there's no way the BKN offer gets any better or should be that appealing to Orlando. And that offer is most likely only going to work in the offseason, since there may be a couple S&T's involved. It's starting to look like Atlanta, if they can somehow convince Howard to go there, might be the most likely destination once everything is said and done. I don't think Dallas can sit on their space a whole year to still be a FA destination (and they have a less appealing trade offer than BKN). I guess if the Lakers can't get rid of Gasol is another deal will look into some massive 3 way that sends out Gasol and Bynum (but that will be difficult and much more likely before the season, so I don't foresee that happening). If the Magic end up taking an offer from Houston or GS I don't see Howard staying if Atlanta is an option, but that's purely my projection/conjecture.
And who did Batum agree to a contract with? I haven't heard anything about that.
I don't agree. I'd love to see that frontcourt. The paint might get a little crowded but they would destroy other teams on the boards and it would be very difficult to drive the lane against them. I've always felt one of the great shames in NBA history was when Orlando traded Chris Webber before trying out the pairing of him and Shaq. Webber had a more versatile game than Horford, but I still think the pairing would be worth a try.
Again, with the caveat that I know nothing about basketball in the weeds, my understanding of Horford's game is that he's small to play true C but has a nice short jumper game where he could excel at PF (where he'd have size on most players?) That puts Smith on the wing, but Smith on the wing with Howard and Horford down low seems to be a lot better than Horford and Smith down low with Marvin Williams on the wings. When Horford was out and Smith had a lot of room to create and slash last season, he was fantastic. I'd think that moving Johnson and turning Smith into the creative guy on the wings - with a true PG in CP3 to distribute the ball - would work.
So you're saying the odds of that happening dropped from 100-1 to 150-1?
Yes. I never saw the reason why PHX would S/T Nash to NYK for their platter of crap, but some NYK fans did. To the extent it pushes NYK even further out the Nash picture it may also help TOR's chances. In addition, despite the fact that I grew to hate Fields this year, I think he's the PERFECT guy to play with Nash. Absolutely perfect.
I assume that this is a tactical ploy by TOR to box the Knicks out of Nash. Reporting is that it's for 3 yr/$20 mil, which seems expensive. Man, the Knicks and Raptors are really getting in each other's faces this offseason.
I like Smith better as a four. Moreover, I think teams should go small more often.
Here's an even better point: It ain't like Joe Johnson is going anywhere if you don't want him. What the hell is the rush?
Obviously, render this inoperative if they do figure out a way to have Deron, IsoJoe, Gerald Wallace AND Howard. But that's impossible, right?
But doesn't it make it more difficult to get Nash when they signed another guy instead?
The extent to which I don't understand this stuff is frightening. Logic would suggest that the Raps overpaying for a Knick helps the Knicks and hurts the Raps, but I can totally buy that it's not that simple...
Toronto has lots of cap room, they can afford both. Knicks only chance was to trade a bunch of guys to the Suns for Nash, with Fields being the main piece. Now, even if the Knicks match the Fields contract, they couldn't trade him to the Suns.
On the bright side, Knick fans ... this probably keeps Lin on your roster.
In particular, Joe Johnson with a competent point guard might be a lot better than we think. Iso-Joe has made him seem a lot worse than he actually is, I think. Last time he had a great point guard, he shot 45% from 3.
I can tell, you're getting dogmatic again! Fun, isn't it?
The most the Knicks can offer Nash is the MLE (not sure if it's the non-tax one or not; so it's either $3mil or $5mil a year to start). The Raps have already offered Nash $12mil a year (for 3 years).
All in, I think becoming the Mets won't be particularly hard. Becoming the Jets is the real goal I think.
The Knicks could've put together a sign and trade that would've gotten him somewhere around 3 years and 28 million. You can debate the likelihood of that happening, but that did seem to be the Knicks plan of action. (I also think the fact that Toronto made this offer to Fields tells you they at least considered it possible.) That's pretty much out the door now.
The Knicks are only going to be able to offer the mini mid level, I am pretty sure. If you use the 5 million, then you are hard capped at $74 million, and I don't think the Knicks are interested in that.
The Magic should have traded Dwight Howard and all their contract trash to the Nets when they had a chance. Now the only way they're getting rid of them is to take on another bad contract.
Right. Which is 8 mil less than Toronto's offer. Or this:
That's a lot closer ($6mil more, one more season). And a lot more to give up, since it also means losing Lin.
The Magic should have traded Dwight Howard and all their contract trash to the Nets when they had a chance. Now the only way they're getting rid of them is to take on another bad contract.
They can still keep him and let him walk. But no, I don't think they'll necessarily have to take a bad (long term) deal back, but they won't be able to shed any of their bad deals. All they need is a bidding war between GS and Hou, who both need to trade for him sooner rather than later.
True, but it's more than the MLE.
Yeah I'm not a big fan of that. Why do you say they'd lose Lin? Just assuming they wouldn't want to go too far into the tax and Toronto would probably put a huge offer on the table for him? They'd still be able to match any offer; though there is probably a limit even for Dolan.
I like it!
Frank: It's not that forced. Besides, I think that the Nets can't obtain Howard now, in conjunction with their other moves.
No.
This. The Nets have made a lot of dumb moves, but they're not the same kind of longtime laughingstock, organizationally and BRK's owner will also be willing to spendspendspend!
Not yet a done deal, but Jason Terry to BOS looks likely. Thoughts?
No. But rumor is Phoenix is the favorite to get him.
Who gets Lin if Nash does end up in NY? Can he somehow be part of a S&T deal to Phx?
The talk has been Toronto, or someone, would make a backloaded offer to him, but I think the Knicks would do everything they can to bring him back even if they got Nash, though I don't think that will be an issue now.
Edit: restricted FA can't be included in sign and trades if they sign an offer sheet; which is why Toronto offered Fields a deal. I assume Lin is going to sign an offer sheet.
I guess I assumed it was one or the other. That's why I asked about where else would Lin go in my next post.
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Not yet a done deal, but Jason Terry to BOS looks likely. Thoughts?
A Rondo/Terry backcourt is quite lacking defensively (assuming they close games together). Especially against say Miami. And I don't see the two of them plus Bradley working much better either. So, I guess it comes down the money.
I'm assuming he's an Allen replacement.
What the flip?
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