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Monday, July 02, 2012

OT: NBA basketball July Thread 2012

I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: Jim Furtado trolling his own site when he’s bored.

Tripon Posted: July 02, 2012 at 04:21 PM | 2487 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball

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   1. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4171620)
Edgy!
   2. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4171654)
Reponding to Jimmy from June thread: yeah, I don't really see why Williams plays in BKN unless Howard is there with him. Otherwise, seems like he tries Dallas. Good org willing to spend, Nowitzki can still play, conference is deeper but James is not in it.
   3. Bruce Markusen Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:45 PM (#4171661)
The Nets can offer him more money under NBA rules. Also, the Nets have a much younger team than the Mavs, who may be past their window of title contention. Depending on what happens with power forward and two-guard slots, a lineup with Howard, Wallace, and Williams is likely a playoff team.
   4. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:49 PM (#4171666)
a lineup with Howard, Wallace, and Williams is likely a playoff team
.

__

Sure, but the Nets are talking about closing a deal for Joe Johnson, who has four years and over 90M on his deal. That is the headline story at ESPN NBA right now. That is why we are having this discussion.

Chris Broussard tweeted that of Nets trade for Johnson, they are "out of the running" for Howard.
   5. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:51 PM (#4171672)
RT @chadfordinsider: With Hawks-Nets deal on verge … waiting for Dwight Howard to increase # of teams on his list in 3, 2, 1
   6. Bruce Markusen Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:53 PM (#4171674)
Still, a team with Lopez at center, Wallace at SF, and Williams and Johnson in the backcourt is potentially a playoff team. And then there's the money. Always the money. The Nets can offer Williams $25 more than the Mavs.
   7. Tripon Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:54 PM (#4171676)
Williams' is 28. He's not waiting for another youth's movement.
   8. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4171693)
crosspost w/ june:

DeShawn Stevenson sign-and-trade as part of Nets-Hawks Joe Johnson swap is 3 years, $6.9 M. Only 1st year ($2.3M) guaranteed.

Exactly what I wanted to hear - thanks! Sign and trade deals have to be at least 3 years - the other two are a technicality / we're paying him extra in year 1 to do this for us.

So... am I delusional or are we now potentially a player for Howard next year? He's from Atlanta, is friends w/ Morrow (we'll have his bird rights) and Josh Smith (same, if we don't trade him first). In that pie in the sky scenario: Dwight + Horford + Smith? + some two guard who can hit threes + Teague ... interesting. Granted, there's a lot of ifs in this notion.

Oh, we also swapped Marvin Williams for Devin Harris (one year left in his deal).
   9. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 02, 2012 at 07:29 PM (#4171700)
I think it is solid. They may get as high as 4-5 in the East. Wallace will likely crater since he has limited skills outside of his dissipating athleticism. Lopez remains a question mark due to health, rebounding, and defense (probably in that order). They are also pretty thin up front for a team without dependable starters.


So, basically the Nets just traded to become the Hawks, and the Hawks just traded to get cap room and a lottery pick in 2013?
   10. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4171701)
Oh, we also swapped Marvin Williams for Devin Harris (one year left in his deal).


Harris has played like crap recently, but Harris at his best is a lot better than Marvin at his best.
   11. Tripon Posted: July 02, 2012 at 07:39 PM (#4171703)
So Billy King traded for the guy who was his big time mistake with the Hawks.
   12. JJ1986 Posted: July 02, 2012 at 07:54 PM (#4171711)
So... am I delusional or are we now potentially a player for Howard next year? He's from Atlanta, is friends w/ Morrow (we'll have his bird rights) and Josh Smith (same, if we don't trade him first). In that pie in the sky scenario: Dwight + Horford + Smith? + some two guard who can hit threes + Teague ... interesting. Granted, there's a lot of ifs in this notion.


What if they trade Horford for Howard now? Would they then have enough cap room next year to add Paul to Smith + Howard.
   13. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 02, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4171718)
What if they trade Horford for Howard now? Would they then have enough cap room next year to add Paul to Smith + Howard.


Would Paul/Smith/Howard be notably better than Teague/Smith/Horford/Howard?
   14. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4171733)
The Nets can offer Williams $25 more than the Mavs.


Sure, and and with JJ they can offer Howard $0. Maybe Williams takes the money and plays on a team that will likely be locked into the 5th seed or so. And maybe he doesn't.

DK-

Howard is from Atlanta, so that may be exactly what Ferry is trying to do.
   15. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4171737)
.

Would Paul/Smith/Howard be notably better than Teague/Smith/Horford/Howard?

Well, depending on who else you get, but yes. Paul is an enormous boon to an offense.
   16. King Mekong Posted: July 02, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4171741)
I think williams/johnson/wallace/humphries/lopez is more than a 4-5, I think they become the favorite for the two seed next year, and perhaps even going forward depending on what happens with D-Rose. I don't think it's enough to beat the heat full force, but on paper they look better than that core with the Pistons who won a title and lost to the spurs. (Though of course that's on paper, and I've got little idea how they'd be on defense, though Avery Johnson is a defensive minded coach...)

   17. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4171744)
Johnson and GWallace are both over 30; Lopez has injury issues and is slow anyway. Humphries is just OK. The 04-05 Pistons had one of the great defensive teams of all time, with Rasheed, Ben and Prince. So, I'm not seeing it.
   18. King Mekong Posted: July 02, 2012 at 08:46 PM (#4171746)
Johnson is 31, and Wallace is 29; they have a recent history of being above average players. Johnson is a bad contract and not likely to get better, but I don't think he's likely to fall off a cliff the next year or even really do anything other than be roughly the same player playing with a much better point guard and likely a more inventive offense. I'm higher than most on Lopez, even though he was injured this year with a foot injury. I think if they sign that euro player and keep humphries, along with Marshon Brooks they have the inside track on the 2 seed.
   19. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 08:50 PM (#4171748)
That is probably how Billy King sees it as well, but I think he's wrong. Also, Williams may decide he would like Dallas better. And that group has very little flexibility going forward.

Wallace turns 30 in three weeks; I was a year off on him. But the Nets will be paying those guys big money when they are 32-33-34 years old (counting DWill if he stays).
   20. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4171752)
But you may be right; we will see.
   21. King Mekong Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4171753)
Agreed, definitely not the best plan going forward, unless they keep Williams. Neither was trading the #6 for Gerald Wallace, unless they keep Williams. I think if they get Williams this would all be worth it (because I think that would make them a contender) (assuming these decisions are what sold him) if not then they relegated themselves to garbage bin for at least 5 years. I think that they will get Williams, because otherwise this whole chain of events is insane.

On a different note, any chance they can get Howard for Joe Johnson?
   22. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4171755)
If Atlanta wanted to acquire Howard now (and Howard was interested), they could make a reasonable offer. However, if they're willing to risk waiting a year... they can build a much better team by not getting Howard through a S/T - if Howard's willing. And, honestly, I think more superduperstars should be willing to do that - it leaves their new club in a significantly better position (though it hurts both their old one and their pocketbook). IIRC, I thought that the new CBA made that a more attractive proposition to the top class of stars.

tripon: It was Billy Knight, not Billy King who used to run the Hawks.

I've seen some criticism of ATL picking up Harris, saying 'they don't need two point guards!'. This:
1) misses the point of the deal
2) ignores that Harris might be the better player
3) also is predicated on ATL not playing both Harris and Teague at the same time, which I think could work (relative to other likely options).

That NJ roster does not look to be particularly good defensively.
   23. Zipperholes Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:18 PM (#4171759)
You have to assume the Nets offered the Magic at least the same package that they're giving the Hawks and were rejected, right? So it would be strange for the Magic to prefer Johnson to that.
   24. GregD Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4171764)
I think williams/johnson/wallace/humphries/lopez is more than a 4-5, I think they become the favorite for the two seed next year, and perhaps even going forward depending on what happens with D-Rose. I don't think it's enough to beat the heat full force, but on paper they look better than that core with the Pistons who won a title and lost to the spurs. (Though of course that's on paper, and I've got little idea how they'd be on defense, though Avery Johnson is a defensive minded coach...)
Maybe I'm a glass half-empty person, but I can't see that as a 2 seed. Let us count the ways. Who on that team is a good defender? I guess Wallace has moments because of his atheleticism. Who's going to stretch the defense other than Johnson? Can you really win with one legitimate rebounder in Humphries? Can you actually sign Humphries and still have a bench at all? What if Johnson plays like 2010-2011 Johnson? What if Deron Williams wasn't tanking or bored last year but just slipping as he hit age 27? What will Wallace do as he loses athleticism, since that's the core of his game and he's 30 years old? Can you win with a power forward who's a .467 shooter and not much of a defender, even if he is a tough rebounder?

Every team has questions, but these seem like fundamental ones. You're not asking whether Johnson will fall off a cliff; you're asking whether he'll play like he did two years ago.

We'll see what shakes loose, but I would not want to bet them to be #2 in the East. That 4th/5th prediction seems sound if many (not all) things work out for them.
   25. The District Attorney Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:27 PM (#4171768)
if they're willing to risk waiting a year... they can build a much better team by not getting Howard through a S/T
You're of course not technically allowed to pre-arrange a signing with someone who is currently under contract to another team... and at this point, even if Howard did tell me he would be willing to sign with me next year, I certainly wouldn't believe him, as he appears to have gone utterly insane. If ATL can get him on a given day, they need to do that before he changes his mind the next day.

I am thoroughly unexcited by these Brooklyn moves because A) I find it hard to believe that they have enough information to have ruled out Howard and B) it feels more like an extension of the Devin Harris era than an actual new start. It's bland players, bad contracts, and I feel like losing in the first round in the NBA playoffs is basically nothing. I may be overly picky. (I'm sure we all agree that Deron leaving would render it a disaster, so I'm not even considering that.)
   26. Spivey Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:28 PM (#4171769)
I've got to agree with robinred. I don't know that I'd take the Nets at any position. The Gerald Wallace that averaged 2 steals and 2 blocks a game ain't walkin' through that door. Brook Lopez is a total wild card. Prime Sheed was able to cover Duncan one-on-one in the Finals, and prime Ben Wallace was able to guard Shaq pretty admirably.
   27. King Mekong Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:36 PM (#4171771)
Good point, I'm making optimistic assumptions.

The Euro that they are rumored to be signing with the MLE would be a good candidate to stretch the floor (takes a lot and hits around a .360 of threes) other than that, you've got Johnson and Williams. So if the Euro becomes their crunch time 4 then you've got 3 out of 5 that can hit uncontested 3's.

Defense is definitely a problem, and likely the reason that a 4/5 pick is safe. I am assuming that Johnson can implement a decent defense. Anyway, we'll see.

Edit: Spivey, you'd have to take Williams over Chauncey
   28. Spivey Posted: July 02, 2012 at 10:17 PM (#4171786)
Edit: Spivey, you'd have to take Williams over Chauncey


No I don't. Chauncey's prime PER and WS are both better than Williams prime, Williams hasn't been very good in 2 years, and Chauncey was the better defender.
   29. The District Attorney Posted: July 02, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4171794)
I've heard Billups for the Hall of Fame talk. I'm pretty sure it's crazy talk, but I have heard it...
   30. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 10:41 PM (#4171810)
I've heard Billups for the Hall of Fame talk.I'm pretty sure it's crazy talk,


Disagree. There is no "NBA HOF" of course, but I think you can make a good case for Billups in Springfield.
   31. GregD Posted: July 02, 2012 at 10:48 PM (#4171816)
I've heard Billups for the Hall of Fame talk. I'm pretty sure it's crazy talk, but I have heard it...
I don't understand the HOF's standards, but you can make a Billups case. If he plays 2 more years, he'll be top 25 in all-time assists, top 45-50 in minutes and games played, likely still top 5 in 3 pointers, top 30 in Win Shares. I can't parse who should go in and who should be out of such a strange HOF, but you can see how he belongs in the conversation.
   32. Tripon Posted: July 02, 2012 at 10:54 PM (#4171819)
Its the basketball half of fame, they take the totality of a person's career, from college, NBA, and in some cases, coaching.
   33. thok Posted: July 02, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4171821)
I've argued Chauncey is better than Nash (once you adjust for pace and defensive ability), and Nash for HOF is certainly not crazy talk.

A Wallace/Williams/Johnson/Lopez Nets teams feels like the Mutumbo/Laettner/Smith/Blaylock Hawks teams. A lot of decent players and possibility for a 50-55 win season, but it's not getting you a title.
   34. PJ Martinez Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:12 PM (#4171826)
   35. Kurt Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4171828)
It's come up here before, but for a team moving to Brooklyn and trying to generate some buzz, 50-55 wins and a 4-5 seed seems a lot better business plan than winning 25-30 games a year for the foreseeable future and trying to hit the lottery. Whether they made these moves or not, the chances of winning a title in the next ten years are really low.
   36. tshipman Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4171836)
Rather than kill Billy King, let's take a moment to celebrate Danny Ferry.

Smart moves, Danny Ferry! You got yourself freedom to turn this team into a contender! You've got a guy (Horford) who fits in pretty well on a championship team. You got yourself the flexibility to pick up an elite player next year (Paul or Howard). Now, a lot of bad things can happen between now and then, but it's not like the Hawks were going anywhere anyways!

So congratulations, Danny Ferry! You traded the guy with the worst contract in the league and you got a couple guys in the deal who don't completely suck. Nice way to start things off.
   37. Tripon Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:40 PM (#4171838)
I remember Danny Ferry to be a terribad GM when he was with the Cavs.
   38. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 03, 2012 at 12:06 AM (#4171852)
As for Billy King: Good job, good effort!

I actually don't hate this move for NJBKN, but it had to be said.
   39. rr Posted: July 03, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4171870)
It's come up here before, but for a team moving to Brooklyn and trying to generate some buzz, 50-55 wins and a 4-5 seed seems a lot better business plan than winning 25-30 games a year for the foreseeable future and trying to hit the lottery.


I might be on board with this if Howard had been quoted as saying that his lifelong dream was to play for Mark Cuban, or to don Celtic Green, Bulls Red, or Laker Purple-and-Gold. But since Howard specifically said "Brooklyn" I can't see trading for Joe Johnson on the same day those quotes hit the internet. Perhaps events will prove me wrong.
   40. rr Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:01 AM (#4171875)
Both the Lowe and Pelton pieces are very solid, as usual with those two guys.
   41. baudib Posted: July 03, 2012 at 03:24 AM (#4171899)
When you have a franchise-changing player who wants to play for your team, I can't see how you throw that away by signing Joe F. Johnson.*

This makes no sense to me whatsoever.

* I don't have the foggiest clue as to how the amnestying business works, but I assume the Nets can't amnesty Johnson after trading for him.
   42. rr Posted: July 03, 2012 at 03:59 AM (#4171902)
baudib,

Correct--you can only amnesty guys who signed with you pre-CBA. About three days ago, I was BSing with a Lakerfan pal about Howard and I told him that since Smith and Howard are buddies and Howard is from ATL, that maybe Ferry would try to position the Hawks for a run at Howard and Paul in 2013--get the hometown hero and correct the huge drafting error all in one shot, and turn the franchise around. I said, "Of course, they will have to amnesty Joe Johnson." Didn't see this trade coming at all.
   43. rr Posted: July 03, 2012 at 07:04 AM (#4171918)
Broussard:

There is still a chance that Orlando Magic star Dwight Howard could become a member of the Brooklyn Nets, according to league sources.

The Nets and the Orlando Magic are discussing a trade that would send Howard to the Nets for Brook Lopez, Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks and the Nets' first-round picks in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018, sources said.
   44. rr Posted: July 03, 2012 at 07:08 AM (#4171919)
Broussard has now corrected it to 2013, 15, and 17.
   45. baudib Posted: July 03, 2012 at 07:34 AM (#4171924)
thanks rr

this is a pretty stunning development.

   46. Kurt Posted: July 03, 2012 at 07:58 AM (#4171931)
I might be on board with this if Howard had been quoted as saying that his lifelong dream was to play for Mark Cuban, or to don Celtic Green, Bulls Red, or Laker Purple-and-Gold. But since Howard specifically said "Brooklyn" I can't see trading for Joe Johnson on the same day those quotes hit the internet. Perhaps events will prove me wrong.

Sure. The only way this makes any sense at all is if they determined for whatever reason that they couldn't get Howard (or if, per Broussard, they could get Howard anyway). No argument that choosing Joe Johnson over Howard is lunacy.
   47. PJ Martinez Posted: July 03, 2012 at 08:08 AM (#4171933)
Yeah, if King pulls that off then we all have to seriously tip our hats to him. But until then... not so much.
   48. jmurph Posted: July 03, 2012 at 08:09 AM (#4171934)
this is a pretty stunning development.


Absolutely, and I love it. I say that as no fan of the Nets, or certainly of Howard, but this is fun stuff. I hope they pull it off. I have absolutely no idea how they're going to fill out the rest of the roster. Anyone smart enough on the salary cap to explain that?
   49. jmurph Posted: July 03, 2012 at 08:10 AM (#4171936)
Also, is it too late to back out of the Wallace deal? Looks to me like they're going to need that 10 million for spots 4-12.
   50. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2012 at 09:43 AM (#4171962)
Yeah, if King pulls that off then we all have to seriously tip our hats to him. But until then... not so much.

Exactly. The ORL/BRK proposal makes a ton of sense for Brooklyn, but for Orlando?
1) How much do you pay Lopez and Humphries so that this makes sense for them (the latter presumably takes a megabucks deal with only the first yr guaranteed - Lopez would want something firmer)?
2) If you've met that criteria, how do those guys make sense for Orlando? Do they get rid of easily their #2 guy, RFA Ryan Anderson (who's limited to the four spot)? If not - Lopez/Anderson is pretty rough defensively and you've got an exceptionally expensive backup four. (EDIT: I guess Kris could be s/t'd to a third team)
3) The picks - how valuable are 3 picks at the bottom of the first round (as a Nets club w/ Howard-Wallace-Johnson-Williams should be very, very good, aging or no)?
4) Brooks is nice, but not a sufficient enticement for ORL to do something.

My guess is that this is, in part, a bluff to get other clubs to raise their bids (on Orlando's part - I'm sure Brooklyn does this deal).

****

In the environment we're talking about, Brooklyn needs to keep Wallace - though maybe not for quite so much money.
   51. PJ Martinez Posted: July 03, 2012 at 09:48 AM (#4171964)
Woj on Twitter: "There isn't great enthusiasm within Magic that the Nets have the ability to make the most appealing offer for Dwight Howard, sources tell Y!" And: "So far, this is true: Orlando hasn't seen an offer from any team that it believes is enough to seriously consider trading Howard now."
   52. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2012 at 10:16 AM (#4171994)
I would like to step back from my comment that 'DH12 and guys like him should wait to sign with new teams as opposed to getting S/T'd'. I still have that sentiment in general, but I underestimated the hit Howard himself would take in that situation. Should've looked as his actual pay - stupid.

If you're Atlanta - and want Howard - and Howard's willing to go there (the biggest if) - what kind of deal can you make that will appease Orlando? Core of the deal is Horford, Teague, and a bunch of low 1sts (including Jenkins). Pachulia goes too.
Horford (who's better than Lopez and is already signed to a team friendly deal) is obviously the key - a deceptively good player who I can see appealing to Hennigan. Atlanta's limited ability to take on bad contracts is a question - that may require help from other teams (Harris is our best tool here, but he can't be combined with other dudes in a trade. Could do something involving sending out Morrow, getting Duhon - again, with help).

Frustrating part of this daydream is that I <<as a Hawks fan>> can construct a strong narrative as to why Howard would want to go (beyond hometown and friendship - Howard supposedly is attracted to getting to build something with the Nets because they haven't done anything before. But the Hawks arguably have a more pathetic history - never going past round 2 in the playoffs since moving to Atlanta. Ever.)
OTOH, you've got to deal w/ Atlanta ownership (versus Daddy Warbuckses in BRK and DAL) + moving Horford and taking on bad deals makes it hard for us to get that third guy (supposedly Chris Paul, in people's wishcasting).

I am VERY unaccustomed to talking about sports with my fanboy hat on as opposed to pretending that I'm reasoned and fair - it's nice.
   53. tshipman Posted: July 03, 2012 at 10:20 AM (#4172001)
Exactly. The ORL/BRK proposal makes a ton of sense for Brooklyn, but for Orlando?


I don't even know that it does. It makes them legit contenders, for sure, but they're really thin, and without draft picks, they have no way to get better. They have a two to four year window or so. Is that contention window really all that great?
   54. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 03, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4172006)
Is it just me, or... let's see.

Of the 29 people named "Williams" to play in the NBA since 2000, 9 have played for the Nets. 4 of them this past season, of course.

Aaron
Deron
Eric
Jordan
Marcus
Sean
Shelden
Shawne
Terrence
   55. jmurph Posted: July 03, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4172012)
They have a two to four year window or so. Is that contention window really all that great?


I'm not sure that's right; seems to me their window would be as long as Howard is Howard and Deron is very good or even above average. So they should have a 5-6 year window, depending on if Howard would get to sign a 5 year deal after next year, or just a 4 (I'm unclear on the rules).
   56. Spivey Posted: July 03, 2012 at 10:43 AM (#4172028)
So what was the reason that Howard picked up his extension again? The fired the coach and GM and he still wants to leave.
   57. billyshears Posted: July 03, 2012 at 10:44 AM (#4172031)
It's come up here before, but for a team moving to Brooklyn and trying to generate some buzz, 50-55 wins and a 4-5 seed seems a lot better business plan than winning 25-30 games a year for the foreseeable future and trying to hit the lottery. Whether they made these moves or not, the chances of winning a title in the next ten years are really low.


I don't know. The Knicks cast a very long shadow - they are the one team that unites everybody in NYC. Even when the Knicks were in the midst of the Isiah/Marbury catastrophe and the Nets were going to NBA finals, the Nets didn't make any serious inroads to the Knicks fanbase. Brooklyn is a thing now, and the Jay-Z connection gives them a hook, but I don't think a 45 win team that everybody knows is playoff cannon fodder is enough to break the stranglehold the Knicks have on NYC (even after the Knicks did everything they could to piss it away over the past 10 years). If this Nets team is a 55 win contender, it's a different story, but I think that's an awfully optimistic outlook on the projected roster (assuming the Howard trade doesn't happen). Brooklyn has everybody's attention right now - this is the time when they can swing for the fences, build a fanbase and become the Mets, if they're lucky. If they muddle through with some teams that, while good, lack a compelling reason to watch, in 4-5 years the novelty will have worn off, everybody will be bored and they'll just end up like the Islanders.
   58. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4172048)
Correct--you can only amnesty guys who signed with you pre-CBA. About three days ago, I was BSing with a Lakerfan pal about Howard and I told him that since Smith and Howard are buddies and Howard is from ATL, that maybe Ferry would try to position the Hawks for a run at Howard and Paul in 2013--get the hometown hero and correct the huge drafting error all in one shot, and turn the franchise around. I said, "Of course, they will have to amnesty Joe Johnson." Didn't see this trade coming at all.


I have no idea how NBA cap logic works, so someone who pays attention to the league with some degree of regularity, please explain my errors to me in slow, uncomplicated English, but:

1. Dwight Howard would accept a trade "only to BKN." - so...
2. Danny Ferry traded BKN a contract that makes it harder to trade for Howard. - while...
3. Clearing cap space for major FA acquisitions in 2013. - when...
4. Chris Paul and Dwight Howard are available (and Josh Smith is up for resigning as well.)

So, assuming Howard doesn't sign and extend long term with BKN, what prevents ATL from signing all three of those guys in 2013, and going to war with a team of:

CP3
John Jenkins
Josh Smith
Al Horford
Dwight Howard

With some combination of Teague + Heinrich + Zaza in the support roles? Is that financially feasible?
   59. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4172058)
Apparently John Hollinger things my mad scheme up there is feasible as well.
   60. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4172069)
Is that financially feasible?


I'm pretty sure they can only fit CP3 and Howard if they move Horford or don't re-sign Smith. Horford + other pieces for Howard makes sense if Howard would sign an extension, and is much better than anything the Nets can offer.
   61. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4172070)
Well, Hollinger's scheme has Horford and Teague leaving in a trade to land one of the other two. Such a deal may include Jenkins, Zaza, and others. (No Hinrich - likely signing with CHI as a FA). Getting a core 4 of Howard/Paul/Smith/Horford is unlikely - too much money, too much dependence on signing dudes through FA. _But_, trading Horford (or Smith - but this means Horford) to land one and get the other as a free agent - that's doable as long as the guys want to play there.
   62. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4172072)
Oh, we also swapped Marvin Williams for Devin Harris (one year left in his deal).


I don't get this move for Utah. Do they really need another 6'9 frontcourt player, let alone one as run-of-the-mill as Marvin Williams.
   63. Booey Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4172077)
Absolutely, and I love it. I say that as no fan of the Nets, or certainly of Howard, but this is fun stuff. I hope they pull it off. I have absolutely no idea how they're going to fill out the rest of the roster. Anyone smart enough on the salary cap to explain that?


I'm not sure it even matters that much. As Miami just showed (and other teams have before that) star power rules in the playoffs, and it's entirely possible to win titles with a couple of big stars and not much else. A Howard/Williams duo with Johnson/Wallace/etc as a supporting cast is a perennial 55-60 win team, IMO. The Magic reached the NBA Finals and the ECF with back to back 59 win seasons with a worse team than that.
   64. Booey Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4172081)
don't get this move for Utah. Do they really need another 6'9 frontcourt player, let alone one as run-of-the-mill as Marvin Williams.


I didn't get this move either, but I wasn't a fan of Harris and his inconsistency, so I saw the trade as basically treading water.
   65. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4172086)
Question - who would you rather have if you're Orlando - Bynum (1/$16.47M) or Horford (4/48M)?

Horford just turned 26, is a very good positional defender who can play the four or five, but not a rim protector. Decidedly well above average passer, plus rebounder, so-so scorer. PER in the 19-20 range, WS/48 ~0.18. Missed most of last year with an injury - health projects fine going forward.
Bynum is a bit over a year younger and has been arguably more productive. 5-year PER of 21.3, WS/48 of 0.195. High percentage post scorer, good shotblocker, very good rebounder, not a super passer, pure center. Not as good at position d as Horford. Has had issues with injuries and low min/g in the past, but not last year. Will be a free agent after next season - should be able to re-up him, but it won't be cheap. Intangibles not up to Horford's levels. In terms of tools, the more talented of the two - also, a better fit with Anderson.

This ignores, of course, other differences b/w what ATL and LAL could offer.

***

If NJ lands Howard, they are sitting pretty. They retain the full 5M MLE (not the mini one) and would use it on a stretch four from Europe who I'm not big on but is coming off a good season. They'd also have an exception for a bit under 2M that might go to an aging but still valuable Jason Kidd. Anyway, a lot of this is immaterial - with that lineup, you'd have a lot of leeway.
They'll also be spending HUGE money in taxes in a few years, but rumor is that their owner is cool with that. (wink)
   66. tshipman Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4172087)

I'm pretty sure they can only fit CP3 and Howard if they move Horford or don't re-sign Smith. Horford + other pieces for Howard makes sense if Howard would sign an extension, and is much better than anything the Nets can offer.


I'd like to add that you don't really want to run out a front line of Howard/Horford/Smith. Horford's really good, but he isn't as good as Howard, and he does mostly the same things. Pushing Smith out on the perimeter is bad because that is hands-down the worst part of his game. Trading Horford is a better use of his value and allows you to pick up more quality off the bench or in the backcourt.

I don't think that Howard ends up on the Hawks. I realize that it's fun to speculate, but I'd say that it's pretty darn unlikely. Most likely destination for him next year is still Orlando. Second most likely is probably Brooklyn and then after that LA.
   67. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4172088)
I don't get this move for Utah. Do they really need another 6'9 frontcourt player, let alone one as run-of-the-mill as Marvin Williams.


Well if Williams' improvement from 3 last year is real he'll help space the offense, and from what I've been reading he's an above average defensive 3 (and awful at the 4, which he should never have to play). This also means that Howard is unlikely to be back, which is a huge plus. I think it's a solid trade for both sides since the Jazz also have Mo Williams, who is about equal to Harris but a better fit for the Jazz. Harris had spurts where he looked like someone capable of blowing by his defender and getting 20+ PPG, but he almost never maintained it for more than a quarter. I'm not sure if it's just age and injuries or something with the Jazz...
   68. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4172097)
Williams was pretty solid last year, though I don't like him. Between the threes, d, and lack of turns - it's sort of like Batum.
   69. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4172187)
Here's a question I have on the matching/offer sheet stuff. Since we know Aldridge and Batum have agreed to their offers, does that mean they're official at midnight on 7/11 (or it could be the start of the business day) and thus the deadline is 72 hours later exactly? IOW, is the deadline going to be the exact same time for both, and what's the protocol for the matching notification? I'm asking because I'm assuming Indy is going to wait until the last possible moment to make their decisions, and I would guess Portland may want to know one way or the other before making their Batum decision. So is there a scenario where Portland ends up making a decision without knowing?

---

Yeah, I see no reason why Orlando is going to help Howard get to BKN, and there's no way the BKN offer gets any better or should be that appealing to Orlando. And that offer is most likely only going to work in the offseason, since there may be a couple S&T's involved. It's starting to look like Atlanta, if they can somehow convince Howard to go there, might be the most likely destination once everything is said and done. I don't think Dallas can sit on their space a whole year to still be a FA destination (and they have a less appealing trade offer than BKN). I guess if the Lakers can't get rid of Gasol is another deal will look into some massive 3 way that sends out Gasol and Bynum (but that will be difficult and much more likely before the season, so I don't foresee that happening). If the Magic end up taking an offer from Houston or GS I don't see Howard staying if Atlanta is an option, but that's purely my projection/conjecture.
   70. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4172194)
The twitters are saying Dragic won't be resigning with the Rockets. So that severely hurts their chances at getting Howard, since Lowry likely was part of the deal.
   71. JoeHova Posted: July 03, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4172209)
It's interesting that McHale apparently managed to totally alienate 2 pretty good PGs in only one year. I wonder what it is about him? Obviously he was terrible as a GM but I thought he generally got decent reviews as a coach.

And who did Batum agree to a contract with? I haven't heard anything about that.
   72. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4172215)
Did Dragic agree to sign with anyone yet? I wanted the Jazz to go after him, but with Williams I don't think they have the cap room and probably not the starting position.
   73. JoeHova Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4172217)
I'd like to add that you don't really want to run out a front line of Howard/Horford/Smith. Horford's really good, but he isn't as good as Howard, and he does mostly the same things. Pushing Smith out on the perimeter is bad because that is hands-down the worst part of his game. Trading Horford is a better use of his value and allows you to pick up more quality off the bench or in the backcourt.

I don't agree. I'd love to see that frontcourt. The paint might get a little crowded but they would destroy other teams on the boards and it would be very difficult to drive the lane against them. I've always felt one of the great shames in NBA history was when Orlando traded Chris Webber before trying out the pairing of him and Shaq. Webber had a more versatile game than Horford, but I still think the pairing would be worth a try.
   74. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4172231)
I don't agree. I'd love to see that frontcourt. The paint might get a little crowded but they would destroy other teams on the boards and it would be very difficult to drive the lane against them. I've always felt one of the great shames in NBA history was when Orlando traded Chris Webber before trying out the pairing of him and Shaq. Webber had a more versatile game than Horford, but I still think the pairing would be worth a try.


Again, with the caveat that I know nothing about basketball in the weeds, my understanding of Horford's game is that he's small to play true C but has a nice short jumper game where he could excel at PF (where he'd have size on most players?) That puts Smith on the wing, but Smith on the wing with Howard and Horford down low seems to be a lot better than Horford and Smith down low with Marvin Williams on the wings. When Horford was out and Smith had a lot of room to create and slash last season, he was fantastic. I'd think that moving Johnson and turning Smith into the creative guy on the wings - with a true PG in CP3 to distribute the ball - would work.
   75. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4172246)
Fields signing 3 year offer sheet with TOR, which means Fields cannot be signed and traded by the Knicks to PHX as part of a potential Nash deal.
   76. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4172260)
Fields signing 3 year offer sheet with TOR, which means Fields cannot be signed and traded by the Knicks to PHX as part of a potential Nash deal.

So you're saying the odds of that happening dropped from 100-1 to 150-1?
   77. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4172265)
So you're saying the odds of that happening dropped from 100-1 to 150-1?

Yes. I never saw the reason why PHX would S/T Nash to NYK for their platter of crap, but some NYK fans did. To the extent it pushes NYK even further out the Nash picture it may also help TOR's chances. In addition, despite the fact that I grew to hate Fields this year, I think he's the PERFECT guy to play with Nash. Absolutely perfect.
   78. billyshears Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4172271)
Fields signing 3 year offer sheet with TOR, which means Fields cannot be signed and traded by the Knicks to PHX as part of a potential Nash deal.


I assume that this is a tactical ploy by TOR to box the Knicks out of Nash. Reporting is that it's for 3 yr/$20 mil, which seems expensive. Man, the Knicks and Raptors are really getting in each other's faces this offseason.
   79. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4172276)
Expensive tactical ploy.

I like Smith better as a four. Moreover, I think teams should go small more often.
   80. The District Attorney Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4172279)
The Knicks cast a very long shadow - they are the one team that unites everybody in NYC. Even when the Knicks were in the midst of the Isiah/Marbury catastrophe and the Nets were going to NBA finals, the Nets didn't make any serious inroads to the Knicks fanbase. Brooklyn is a thing now, and the Jay-Z connection gives them a hook, but I don't think a 45 win team that everybody knows is playoff cannon fodder is enough to break the stranglehold the Knicks have on NYC (even after the Knicks did everything they could to piss it away over the past 10 years).
I think this is well said. I can totally see why an outsider would figure "jeez, winning 45 is going to make a lot better first impression than winning 20", but I don't see it playing out like that. I mean, it would make *a* better first impression, but I think the difference would be less than one might predict... and certainly less than the difference between having a great team in three years vs. a still mediocre one.

Here's an even better point: It ain't like Joe Johnson is going anywhere if you don't want him. What the hell is the rush?

Obviously, render this inoperative if they do figure out a way to have Deron, IsoJoe, Gerald Wallace AND Howard. But that's impossible, right?

To the extent it pushes NYK even further out the Nash picture it may also help TOR's chances.

But doesn't it make it more difficult to get Nash when they signed another guy instead?

The extent to which I don't understand this stuff is frightening. Logic would suggest that the Raps overpaying for a Knick helps the Knicks and hurts the Raps, but I can totally buy that it's not that simple...
   81. Conor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4172282)
But doesn't it make it more difficult to get Nash when they signed another guy instead?

The extent to which I don't understand this stuff is frightening. Logic would suggest that the Raps overpaying for a Knick helps the Knicks and hurts the Raps, but I can totally buy that it's not that simple...


Toronto has lots of cap room, they can afford both. Knicks only chance was to trade a bunch of guys to the Suns for Nash, with Fields being the main piece. Now, even if the Knicks match the Fields contract, they couldn't trade him to the Suns.
   82. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4172285)
Conor's explanation is better.

On the bright side, Knick fans ... this probably keeps Lin on your roster.
   83. Joel W Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4172297)
With respect to the Nets trading to become the Hawks, I'm certainly OK if that's the expectation. As in, that was enough to get me to split some season tickets with some friends, which I think they cared a lot about, and I don't blame them. Especially since the way they're going to be a 45 win team is to score a ton of points.

In particular, Joe Johnson with a competent point guard might be a lot better than we think. Iso-Joe has made him seem a lot worse than he actually is, I think. Last time he had a great point guard, he shot 45% from 3.
   84. andrewberg Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4172307)
I am VERY unaccustomed to talking about sports with my fanboy hat on as opposed to pretending that I'm reasoned and fair - it's nice.


I can tell, you're getting dogmatic again! Fun, isn't it?
   85. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4172310)
Toronto has lots of cap room, they can afford both. Knicks only chance was to trade a bunch of guys to the Suns for Nash, with Fields being the main piece. Now, even if the Knicks match the Fields contract, they couldn't trade him to the Suns.

The most the Knicks can offer Nash is the MLE (not sure if it's the non-tax one or not; so it's either $3mil or $5mil a year to start). The Raps have already offered Nash $12mil a year (for 3 years).
   86. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4172315)
I feel bad for Nash in a way. There certainly is a lot of pressure for him to sign in Toronto, but they are going to have a 0% chance of being a competitor during his time there, so he'd just be signing somewhere else to repeat the last couple of years in Phoenix. If he wants to win, he has to go somewhere else (and NYK ain't it either).
   87. Joel W Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4172317)
I'll continue this last post in response to the Knicks folks: I think there is really not much chance of the Nets becoming the Islanders. People are really excited about the Nets in Brooklyn, they're everywhere. I'm a Celtics fan, and will always be one, but this is the first team I'll ever own season tickets for, and I know a bunch of people who bought them also, people who were diehard Knicks fans. They're not the Islanders and they're not New Jersey because 5 million people are a subway ride away, not a train out to Long Island. Brooklyn itself is in the top 5 most populous cities in the country. Also, the Nets are not owned by James Dolan. This has value. With Pokhorov I think people think they've made dumb moves, but it can't be worse than Dolan.

All in, I think becoming the Mets won't be particularly hard. Becoming the Jets is the real goal I think.
   88. Conor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4172318)
The most the Knicks can offer Nash is the MLE (not sure if it's the non-tax one or not; so it's either $3mil or $5mil a year to start). The Raps have already offered Nash $12mil a year (for 3 years).


The Knicks could've put together a sign and trade that would've gotten him somewhere around 3 years and 28 million. You can debate the likelihood of that happening, but that did seem to be the Knicks plan of action. (I also think the fact that Toronto made this offer to Fields tells you they at least considered it possible.) That's pretty much out the door now.

The Knicks are only going to be able to offer the mini mid level, I am pretty sure. If you use the 5 million, then you are hard capped at $74 million, and I don't think the Knicks are interested in that.
   89. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4172319)
I hate the Gerald Wallace resigning and the Joe Johnson trade, however, if that makes Deron happy then I can't complain. If the Nets were somehow to get Howard (the offer is terrible but Magic's hand is forced) then Bill King somehow becomes one of the greatest (and luckiest) GM in the history of the NBA.

The Magic should have traded Dwight Howard and all their contract trash to the Nets when they had a chance. Now the only way they're getting rid of them is to take on another bad contract.
   90. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4172337)
The Knicks could've put together a sign and trade that would've gotten him somewhere around 3 years and 28 million.

Right. Which is 8 mil less than Toronto's offer. Or this:

chadfordinsider: Knicks could offer Shumpert, Douglas, Gadzuric, Harrellson & Jordan to Suns & get Nash to starting # of $9.9 M. 4 years, $42M trump Raps?


That's a lot closer ($6mil more, one more season). And a lot more to give up, since it also means losing Lin.

The Magic should have traded Dwight Howard and all their contract trash to the Nets when they had a chance. Now the only way they're getting rid of them is to take on another bad contract.

They can still keep him and let him walk. But no, I don't think they'll necessarily have to take a bad (long term) deal back, but they won't be able to shed any of their bad deals. All they need is a bidding war between GS and Hou, who both need to trade for him sooner rather than later.
   91. Conor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4172340)
Right. Which is 8 mil less than Toronto's offer. Or this:


True, but it's more than the MLE.

chadfordinsider: Knicks could offer Shumpert, Douglas, Gadzuric, Harrellson & Jordan to Suns & get Nash to starting # of $9.9 M. 4 years, $42M trump Raps?


That's a lot closer ($6mil more, one more season). And a lot more to give up, since it also means losing Lin.


Yeah I'm not a big fan of that. Why do you say they'd lose Lin? Just assuming they wouldn't want to go too far into the tax and Toronto would probably put a huge offer on the table for him? They'd still be able to match any offer; though there is probably a limit even for Dolan.
   92. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4172342)
I can tell, you're getting dogmatic again! Fun, isn't it?

I like it!

Frank: It's not that forced. Besides, I think that the Nets can't obtain Howard now, in conjunction with their other moves.

The Magic should have traded Dwight Howard and all their contract trash to the Nets when they had a chance.

No.

Also, the Nets are not owned by James Dolan.

This. The Nets have made a lot of dumb moves, but they're not the same kind of longtime laughingstock, organizationally and BRK's owner will also be willing to spendspendspend!

Not yet a done deal, but Jason Terry to BOS looks likely. Thoughts?
   93. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4172343)
Did Dragic agree to sign with anyone yet?

No. But rumor is Phoenix is the favorite to get him.

Who gets Lin if Nash does end up in NY? Can he somehow be part of a S&T deal to Phx?
   94. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4172346)
I don't see GS going after Howard.
   95. andrewberg Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4172349)
Can jet and ray coexist? Seems unlikely. Ray has become fragile, probably a cost of doing business now. I'd prefer jet if the idea is to squeeze out what's left.
   96. Conor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4172350)
Who gets Lin if Nash does end up in NY? Can he somehow be part of a S&T deal to Phx?


The talk has been Toronto, or someone, would make a backloaded offer to him, but I think the Knicks would do everything they can to bring him back even if they got Nash, though I don't think that will be an issue now.

Edit: restricted FA can't be included in sign and trades if they sign an offer sheet; which is why Toronto offered Fields a deal. I assume Lin is going to sign an offer sheet.
   97. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4172351)
Why do you say they'd lose Lin? Just assuming they wouldn't want to go too far into the tax and Toronto would probably put a huge offer on the table for him? They'd still be able to match any offer; though there is probably a limit even for Dolan.

I guess I assumed it was one or the other. That's why I asked about where else would Lin go in my next post.

---

Not yet a done deal, but Jason Terry to BOS looks likely. Thoughts?

A Rondo/Terry backcourt is quite lacking defensively (assuming they close games together). Especially against say Miami. And I don't see the two of them plus Bradley working much better either. So, I guess it comes down the money.
   98. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4172356)
Can jet and ray coexist?

I'm assuming he's an Allen replacement.
   99. Conor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4172361)
As a Knick fan I had assumed they would still keep both, if it came to that. Dolan spent a ton of money on some rerally bad teams so I'd hope he would spend a ton of money on at least a good team.
   100. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 03, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4172373)
Or not:

WojYahooNBA: As @SpearsNBAYahoo reports, Celtics finalizing deal with Jason Terry. Boston is still determined to keep Ray Allen too, sources say.


What the flip?
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