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Monday, July 02, 2012

OT: NBA basketball July Thread 2012

I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: Jim Furtado trolling his own site when he’s bored.

Tripon Posted: July 02, 2012 at 04:21 PM | 2487 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball

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   1201. JC in DC Posted: July 17, 2012 at 07:04 AM (#4184570)
Kidd is a veteran who will provide leadership and mentoring to the Knicks' younger players. As for Felton, the Knicks are in win-now mode and they need a starting PG with playoff experience as opposed to someone untested like Lin.


Your positions lose their credibility with this silliness. No one said this, did they?

The Felton/Kidd contracts are roughly $3mill/annum each. Pretty affordable and no huge payment in the third year, unlike Lin's.
   1202. AROM Posted: July 17, 2012 at 07:40 AM (#4184579)
"Your positions lose their credibility with this silliness. No one said this, did they?"

I read that as sarcasm. I could be wrong. In any case, if Kidd's there for mentoring make sure you keep it on the court. Hire someone like Charles Oakley to give Kidd a beat down if he tries to give any marital advice or offers any player a ride home from the clubs.
   1203. billyshears Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:49 AM (#4184627)
I'm going to lose it if I read one more story repeating the Knicks' spin that it's going to cost them $60 mil to keep Lin in the 3rd year. From the start of FA, everybody basically assumed that Lin would get an offer sheet that paid him between $10 - $15 mil in the third year (while the Knicks decided it was a better strategic play to not offer him the 4 yr/$24 mil max they could offer, which it seemed like he would sign). And yet, while all of this was going on, the Knicks went out and made deals to pay Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby and Raymond Felton $10 mil in that very same third year when they will be a a combined age of 111 years old. Why aren't we reading stories that the Knicks can't keep Lin because they incurred potentially $40 mil in expenses to senior citizens while they let Lin twist in the wind?
   1204. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: July 17, 2012 at 10:24 AM (#4184724)
[1201] I was being sarcastic but those are actual things that have been said by members of the media.

[1203] Not surprising considering there are people on this very thread who say things like "the knicks shouldn't pay jeremy lin 50 million dollars."
   1205. Booey Posted: July 17, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4184727)
Saw a blurb at the bottom of the screen when I was watching Angels/Tigers yesterday about Kobe saying he might retire at the end of his contract, at age 35. I'm not seeing it. Any thoughts?
   1206. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 17, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4184738)
Saw a blurb at the bottom of the screen when I was watching Angels/Tigers yesterday about Kobe saying he might retire at the end of his contract, at age 35. I'm not seeing it. Any thoughts?

If he does, he'll make a comeback at 37. He might if he wins another title or two, but I doubt it.

Humphries back to the Nets for 2/24.
   1207. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 17, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4184759)
Kobe is 7th all-time in points scored with 29484, putting him 8903 behind Kareem. It's reachable, but he'll have to play another 5-6 seasons.
   1208. AROM Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4184768)
Saw a blurb at the bottom of the screen when I was watching Angels/Tigers yesterday about Kobe saying he might retire at the end of his contract, at age 35. I'm not seeing it. Any thoughts?


Barkley and Shaq talked early in their careers about retiring at a young age. Barkley played to 36, Shaq to 39, and they pretty much stretched their careers as far as their bodies would let them. So I'll believe it when I see it.

Looking at my best guess of comparable players,

Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, and Clyde Drexler played to 35, Julius Erving to 36, George Gervin to 33. Michael Jordan played to 40, but Jordan was just on another level - he was still very effective even after getting old. If Kobe chooses to play that long, the end of his career would probably look more like Dominique Wilkins. That is, the Clippers-Celtics-Magic-Spurs version of 'Nique.
   1209. Booey Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:17 AM (#4184792)
Kobe is 7th all-time in points scored with 29484, putting him 8903 behind Kareem. It's reachable, but he'll have to play another 5-6 seasons.


That's pretty much what I was thinking. If the Lakers are still good (and I don't see any reason why they wouldn't be, especially if they get Howard), then the all time scoring record seems like the type of thing Kobe might be interested in. IMO, he seems to know more about basketball history than a lot of players and might care a little more about his place in it.

Michael Jordan played to 40, but Jordan was just on another level - he was still very effective even after getting old.


Jordan retired at 30...and 35...and 40. Maybe all the time off in between saved his legs from some extra wear and tear that would've worn him down sooner? Kobe came right out of high school, so he's already got as much mileage as a lot of guys that played to an older age.
   1210. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4184796)
Jordan retired at 30...and 35...and 40. Maybe all the time off in between saved his legs from some extra wear and tear that would've worn him down sooner? Kobe came right out of high school, so he's already got as much mileage as a lot of guys that played to an older age.

That surely helped. MJ played a total of about 49,000 minutes (reg season and playoffs) in the NBA, Kobe's already at 51,000 minutes.
   1211. andrewberg Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4184808)
That's pretty much what I was thinking. If the Lakers are still good (and I don't see any reason why they wouldn't be, especially if they get Howard), then the all time scoring record seems like the type of thing Kobe might be interested in. IMO, he seems to know more about basketball history than a lot of players and might care a little more about his place in it.


Also, wasn't one of Dwight's reported hangups about LA that he didn't want to spend his career as Kobe's sidekick? Isn't it possible that Kobe is using the media to convince Dwight that this would be his team in short order?
   1212. Booey Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4184822)
Also, wasn't one of Dwight's reported hangups about LA that he didn't want to spend his career as Kobe's sidekick? Isn't it possible that Kobe is using the media to convince Dwight that this would be his team in short order?


I was thinking something along those lines. Really, if Howard signed a long term deal with the Lakers, how long realistically do you think he'd be the 2nd option behind an (almost) 34 year old Kobe? One season? Two?

Shaq averaged more points than Kobe in all 3 of their title seasons together and won the Finals MVP each time. When Bryant took over the teams scoring lead in 2003 and 2004, the Lakers didn't win it all. Obviously that's oversimplifying, but the Shaq/Kobe Lakers seemed clearly better when they went inside first and featured O'Neal as their #1. I could see them being very successful doing the same with Howard.
   1213. andrewberg Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4184833)
the Shaq/Kobe Lakers seemed clearly better when they went inside first and featured O'Neal as their #1.


Also, when Shaq was in his prime and healthy, but I follow the point you're making.

They wouldn't run the triangle if they got Dwight, so that also changes how you evaluate their roles.
   1214. AROM Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4184840)
Jordan retired at 30...and 35...and 40. Maybe all the time off in between saved his legs from some extra wear and tear that would've worn him down sooner? Kobe came right out of high school, so he's already got as much mileage as a lot of guys that played to an older age.


He wasn't exactly taking it easy on his legs that first retirement. 127 games, 497 PA, 213 putouts in the OF, 11 errors to chase after, and 48 steal attempts (30 successful).

Jordan had declined as much should be expected for a 39-40 year old player, but 60% of peak Jordan is still pretty good, where 60% of most HOF players is replacement level.
   1215. Booey Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4184843)
They wouldn't run the triangle if they got Dwight, so that also changes how you evaluate their roles.


Doesn't it seem reasonable that the Lakers could be a serious contender with Nash dumping the ball inside to Howard for 25 points a game, and then Howard kicking it out to an aging but still effective Bryant when he's doubled? Kobe could still get 20 as a 2nd option. That seems like it could work, right?
   1216. andrewberg Posted: July 17, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4184856)
Doesn't it seem reasonable that the Lakers could be a serious contender with Nash dumping the ball inside to Howard for 25 points a game, and then Howard kicking it out to an aging but still effective Bryant when he's doubled? Kobe could still get 20 as a 2nd option. That seems like it could work, right?


Yeah, probably. Not sure if that really maximizes any of their main guys though.
   1217. jmurph Posted: July 17, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4184871)
Doesn't it seem reasonable that the Lakers could be a serious contender with Nash dumping the ball inside to Howard for 25 points a game, and then Howard kicking it out to an aging but still effective Bryant when he's doubled? Kobe could still get 20 as a 2nd option. That seems like it could work, right?


Is Gasol still on this team? And Kobe, and Nash? There's approximately zero chance that Howard would get near 25 a game. If being the man on offense is his top priority, then he's better off sticking with a second or third tier team.

EDIT: Basically agreeing with berg in more words.
   1218. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4184917)
Obviously that's oversimplifying, but the Shaq/Kobe Lakers seemed clearly better when they went inside first and featured O'Neal as their #1.


Sure, they were better when they had one of the greatest centers of all time than when they didn't, just like they were better when they had Gasol than when they didn't, even though Bryant was still the #1 option. Again, Bryant is just one guy on the team, even though people talk about him all the time as if he were the team.

As to him and Howard, Bryant has sort of denied that the "You would be our Tyson Chandler if you came here" phone conversation actually included that remark. Kupchak, OTOH, suggested that Bryant did say that. When asked about Bryant talking to Nash on the phone before the deal, Kupchak said something about "the risk you take with Kobe" in that context.

Howard supposedly does not want to "follow Shaq" even though/because they have sort of have the same nickname and for other reasons, like the ORL/LA thing. He also supposedly has said he would like to play with Steve Nash, as most guys would, so Nash being with the Lakers might make him feel a little differently about being here, but then again it might not.

As to Bryant retiring, he certainly seems to have the type of personality that will make it hard for him to walk away. OTOH, he has a ton of mileage on his body and has permanently damaged more than one of his fingers. My guess is that he said it simply because he is feeling old right now, still playing into the summer, not because he is "using the media" to get Howard here but of course I don't know. He is the only guy over 30 on Team USA.

I am not sure how much Howard would score per game on this team, but I think Gasol rather than Howard would likely be the one scoring a lot less, since he would be fourth option and spending less time on the floor and even more time away from the basket. Nash at PG will make things a lot different.
   1219. Booey Posted: July 17, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4184925)
Is Gasol still on this team? And Kobe, and Nash? There's approximately zero chance that Howard would get near 25 a game. If being the man on offense is his top priority, then he's better off sticking with a second or third tier team.


Well, obviously that's not going to be their play on every possession. But why couldn't Howard have basically the same role that Shaq had 10 years ago? And Nash was already down to what, like 12 points a game last year? That could drop even further on the Lakers. I see him as being much more of a distributor on that team than a top scoring option.

Good call on Gasol, though. I'm not sure how he fits into that scenario. Maybe take Malone's role from the 2004 team?
   1220. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4184926)
I think Chandler is either 30 or 31, actually, but has played a lot less over the years than Bryant has.
   1221. Booey Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4184938)
Sure, they were better when they had one of the greatest centers of all time than when they didn't,


Yeah, and with Howard, they'd have the best center in the game in his prime again. Kobe is still great, of course, but he's already slightly past his own prime, and will likely be distancing himself even further from it with each passing year. That's why with a long term deal, it makes sense that Howard should end up as the #1 for all but the first year or two of that span. Using him as a Tyson Chandler type 4th option - if Kobe really even said that - would be dumb, IMO. Like you said, Gasol and Nash should be the ones who's shot attempts drop if the Lakers end up with all 4, not Howards.
   1222. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4184945)
If Howard actually comes here, which I doubt, I think (having thought about it for a second) he would probably average over 20 a game but less than 25. I also don't think he would sign a long-term deal, at least not until after the season is over.
   1223. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4184967)
rumors!
grant hill to LAC
bogans likely to join stackhouse and some other dudes in BRK

1222 - agreed. if nothing else, he should wait til the offseason regardless of where he lands.
   1224. Booey Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:24 PM (#4184968)
What about something like this?:

Lakers center their offense around Howard, the same way the Spurs did with Duncan in his prime. Howard scores 22-25 ppg as the #1.

Kobe takes the Ginobili role (but starting rather than coming off the bench) and gets around 20 ppg as a 2nd option slasher/outside shooter.

Gasol's usage drops but he's still an important contributor as he takes the Malone 2004 role (something like 13 ppg and 9 boards like Mailman did for LA).

Nash enjoys a similar late career as old Stockton, scoring only around 10-12 ppg as his shot attempts drop, but doing so at a very high percentage. Also probably still averages 10-12 assists per game with the 3 guys above to pass to.

What other significant players do the Lakers have that I'm missing? If the 2004 team worked well enough to get them to the Finals, why couldn't the above scenario be successful?
   1225. Booey Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4184982)
Maybe 25 ppg for Howard is a little high. But assuming his back isn't a lingering issue and he can return at full strength (a big IF, I know), then couldn't a contender - even a deep one like the Lakers - build an offense around him the same way the Spurs and Wolves did with Duncan and KG in their primes?

How about we say 20-24 ppg instead to match TD and KG's peak production?
   1226. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4184987)
If the 2004 team worked well enough to get them to the Finals, why couldn't the above scenario be successful


Marc J. Spears: Lakers pushing hard to land Magic center Dwight Howard & meeting with Magic today,sources tell Y! LAL wants DH contract extension commitment about 12 minutes ago


Well, I don't think anyone questions that the Lakers with Howard (assuming his back will be OK)would be "successful." The questions would be whether they win the title and how the shots gets doled out. The rest of the roster is crappy and thin. If they had to play a game today, their bench would be Blake, Ebanks, McRoberts, and Goudelock.
   1227. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4184989)
Steve Nash consoles a pissed off four-year old Suns fan with some autographed shoes:

As Nash announced on his personal Twitter feed on July 14, Nash sent the preschooler who he identified as "Aurora" a pair of his autographed shoes … in Suns purple and orange, of course.

"Glad to turn that frown upside down Aurora …" Nash Tweeted on the social media site on Saturday


http://www.opposingviews.com/i/sports/nba/video-sad-suns-fan-girl-gets-sorry-i-ditched-you-lakers-gift-steve-nash


   1228. Booey Posted: July 17, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4185011)
The rest of the roster is crappy and thin. If they had to play a game today, their bench would be Blake, Ebanks, McRoberts, and Goudelock.


The Heat just won the title with a star studded starting lineup and a "crappy and thin" bench. Several other teams have done the same.
   1229. Tripon Posted: July 17, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4185021)
Honestly, if I'm the Lakers, I'd just sign Bynum to an extension right now. Forget Dwight Howard, he's out until Dec, and this team doesn't need a guy who is going to miss training camp and then need a couple more months to 'mesh' with the team.

Also, Grant Hill is a Clipper.
   1230. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4185049)
Honestly, if I'm the Lakers, I'd just sign Bynum to an extension right now. Forget Dwight Howard,


There are some Lakers fans who feel this way, and I don't really blame them. But my position is that Howard is gifted enough that he is worth dicking around with/taking risks for, particularly because he beings specific skills (defensive mobility, P/R) that Bynum doesn't, although Bynum is a very good player. Also, Howard's FT issues late-game would not be a huge deal for the Lakers, since they have Nash, Bryant, and Gasol.

Apparently Jamison to the Lakers and GHill to the Clippers is pretty much set.
   1231. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 17, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4185054)
bogans likely to join stackhouse and some other dudes in BRK

Stackhouse! I remember that guy! What's he been up to all these years?
   1232. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 17, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4185064)
Games started by Jerry Stackhouse

1995-96 71
1996-97 81
1997-98 15
1998-99 9
1999-00 82
2000-01 80
2001-02 76
2002-03 70
2003-12 58
   1233. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 17, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4185076)
Hollinger's take on Humphries deal. I guess all the hand-wringing about Fegan's conflict of interest is moot. Wow - Humphries gets (over)paid and maybe Fegan convinces Howard to wait until Jan. 15.
   1234. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 17, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4185085)
Forget Dwight Howard, he's out until Dec

Wait, what? I haven't seen this yet.
   1235. Jimmy P Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4185185)
Howard Beck is saying that the Knicks will let Lin go to the Rockets. Decision done
   1236. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4185188)
What a ####### joke.
   1237. Tripon Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4185190)
Its okay, they'll just trade for Lin and give up two first rounders in two and a half years. (Those two picks will not be lottery protected.)
   1238. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4185193)
(grabs popcorn)
   1239. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4185203)
Tom Moore: #Sixers Collins: 'Kwame took a lot less money to play here. I think we're going to see the best of Kwame.' about 1 hour ago

Tom Moore: Collins: Goal to start Hawes at power forward and Brown st center. Added Royal Ivey as vet backup PG. #Sixers about 1 hour ago

Tom Moore: #Sixers Collins: 'We think we have a chance to be even better, defensively. We're longer and more versatile.' about 1 hour ago

Tom Moore: #Sixers Collins on Vucevic: 'I don't know where Nik is right now. He's got to be tougher.' about 1 hour ago


i...am not optimistic.
   1240. jmurph Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4185208)
The Wiz are officially going to amnesty Blatche. Who the hell is going to take a flyer on that guy?

   1241. Conor Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4185210)
As a Knicks fan; pretty bummed out.
   1242. Fourth True Outcome Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4185214)
The Wiz are officially going to amnesty Blatche. Who the hell is going to take a flyer on that guy?


Europe?
   1243. billyshears Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4185216)
This is ####### ridiculous. I don't quite know how to not be a Knicks fan, but I'm going to try really hard. I'll probably just end up simultaneously rooting for them to fail totally, completely and spectacularly or succeed wildly.

I had a whole paragraph typed out about how I hate this decision for so many reasons more than just the basketball aspects, but basically I mostly hate it because I think it's the result of the elevation above all other concerns of James Dolan's petulance and anger that Jeremy Lin violated James Dolan's warped sense of loyalty by trying to get more money after the Knicks did something stupid.
   1244. Jimmy P Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4185217)
The Wiz are officially going to amnesty Blatche. Who the hell is going to take a flyer on that guy?


It's be high comedy if they put him with Tyreke and Cousins. That's the kind of influence those two need.

   1245. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 17, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4185221)
I'm thinking I'm jumping ship. But I just can't root for the Russian and that stadium. So let's go...Wolves!
   1246. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4185229)
I wish nothing but terible things upon this franchise until James Dolan dies or sells the team. It won't ever get better with him in charge.
   1247. bob gee Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4185234)
down side: i have to find streaming video on the internet of the rockets.

up side: i'm back to my favorite nba team being "whoever plays the knicks"!
   1248. nick swisher hygiene Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4185244)
I think the only way I could come to understand NBA salary rules would if if I were to take a graduate course in it; that's the only context in which I'd be prepared to adequately absorb such arcane, counter-intuitive material.

Beck (NYT):

"The contract with Houston includes a third-year balloon payment of $14.9 million, which would have cost the Knicks another $35 million or more in luxury-tax penalties had they matched the deal. The so-called poison pill was designed to dissuade the Knicks.......The Knicks wanted to keep Lin, but his situation was complicated. Because he was a restricted free agent, the Knicks had the right to match any offer. Yet under N.B.A. cap rules, they could offer him no more than $16.13 million in a three-year deal, and a maximum of $28.75 million over five years. Only a rival team was allowed to include the third-year balloon payment."

What exactly is this "balloon payment"? Could somebody link me that Advanced Capology site again?
   1249. Tripon Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:20 PM (#4185250)
Then the knicks should have offered the five year deal.
   1250. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4185253)
My ultimate verdict is that a team this 45winish shouldn't be losing assets for nothing because of cap implications three years down the road.

Of course, that likely has nothing to do with what's going on and what's going on has nothing to do with basketball. It never does with Jim Dolan, back in his comfort zone -- in the corner, shoulders hunched, dunce cap aloft, flailing.
   1251. Mark S. is bored Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4185255)
Yet under N.B.A. cap rules, they could offer him no more than $16.13 million in a three-year deal, and a maximum of $28.75 million over five years. Only a rival team was allowed to include the third-year balloon payment."
And remember that these rules were put in place to allow teams to keep their own players.
   1252. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4185260)
Lin's salary over the next two years is effectively capped at the MLE, capped at the max afterward. Houston offered a deal worth ~3/25. For cap purposes, the cost is split equally across the three years for Houston (bit over 8m/yr), but is equal to the annual salaries he's actually receiving for NY, should they choose to match - which they can as he's an RFA. (The rule was set up this way with the intent of helping the incumbent team, incidentally). With a highly progressive luxury tax for teams with very high salaries (like NY) and with the timing with which the new tax structure is put in place (phased in somewhat slowly, to give teams time to adjust to the new CBA) - that 15m three seasons becomes a much, much higher cost in terms of $ sent out (15m to Lin the rest, to the league in taxes).
Now, had the Knicks simply offered him a contract in the first place - they wouldn't have the ability to offer way more $ in the third-plus year of the deal - they're restricted to what they can currently offer as a function of his experience (so, the MLE with small annual raises).

The real lessons to take from this (apart from that the NBA rules on this front are complicated) are that over the cap teams are more limited in what they can do (which you knew) and that having really high payrolls is about to get very expensive (which you also likely knew).

***

Given that Lin was going to be in demand - the only possible outcome this year was that another team would sign him to an offer sheet and that NYK either would or would not match.

***

So, wonder if HOU lands Asik too. If so, bye bye Dwight?
   1253. Manny Coon Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4185264)
The Heat just won the title with a star studded starting lineup and a "crappy and thin" bench. Several other teams have done the same.


I think this sells the Heat's bench short. Jones and Miller are legit shooters, Haslem can rebound, Turiaf and Anthony can defend. Battier is still a good defender and made his shots the playoffs. It isn't the most amazing bench the world, but they are all role players that can handle the few skills they are good at reasonably well, while staying out of the way of the stars.
   1254. Jimmy P Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4185265)
What exactly is this "balloon payment"? Could somebody link me that Advanced Capology site again?


The basics are that there was a limit on how high his first and second year of this contract could be. They were set to fit in the Knicks cap (this is the Gilbert Arenas rule). For some reason, it only applies for the first two years. So, the Rockets offered him that salary in those two years (it's like $5 million per). But, they then made the third year $15 million.

Here's where I get confused: The Knicks have to count his yearly salaries against those caps. Whereas, the Rockets get to use the AAV (average annual value) in their cap calcs. So, the Rockets have him hit as $8 million each of the three. I don't understand why that's the case.
   1255. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4185270)
When's the last time an NBA team didn't match an offer sheet and let a RFA walk for nothing?
   1256. JJ1986 Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4185279)
When's the last time an NBA team didn't match an offer sheet and let a RFA walk for nothing?


It definitely happened with Wesley Matthews 2 years ago.
   1257. Conor Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4185283)
Here's where I get confused: The Knicks have to count his yearly salaries against those caps. Whereas, the Rockets get to use the AAV (average annual value) in their cap calcs. So, the Rockets have him hit as $8 million each of the three. I don't understand why that's the case.


1252 mentions this was supposed to help out the incumbent team; I'm trying to figure out why. Maybe the logic is that with the lower payments in year 1 and 2 the team doing the matching would be more likely to have some extra cap room to acquire other players? I'm not sure that makes any sense.
   1258. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:54 PM (#4185286)
I love how under Dolan's management, JR ####### Smith has been empowered to run his mouth about major financial matters and basketball decisions without consequence. Who in their right mind structures things in such an absurd way?

Give the ball to Melo and JR and watch them chuck. Great ####### plan.
   1259. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: July 17, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4185289)
According to Knick blogs, JR just retweeted Beck's article re Lin while seated next to Dolan and Woodson at summer league. Total circus.

Melo and JR and Creative Artists Agency (*) didn't want Lin on the team and that's why he isn't.

(*) For those unaware, Dolan wouldn't finalize Woodson's deal until he fired his agent of many years and hired CAA. That's how absurd the guy is.

   1260. Tripon Posted: July 17, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4185293)
Really, if JR Smith and Carmelo really worried about players with Lin's service time getting this kind of money, they should have the NBAPA put up a service time requirement similar that baseball has for all players, regardless of draft stock, or whatever.

As is, its hypocritical whining from two players that already got their money.
   1261. Jimmy P Posted: July 17, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4185295)
As is, its hypocritical whining from two players that already got their money.


Man, I wouldn't want to join them. It's an unspoken rule that you don't talk about someone else's contract. Not only are these guys doing it, they're ripping one.
   1262. nick swisher hygiene Posted: July 17, 2012 at 06:08 PM (#4185297)
For cap purposes, the cost is split equally across the three years for Houston (bit over 8m/yr), but is equal to the annual salaries he's actually receiving for NY, should they choose to match - which they can as he's an RFA. (The rule was set up this way with the intent of helping the incumbent team, incidentally)


--any idea of the thinking behind this "intent," der K?
   1263. Jimmy P Posted: July 17, 2012 at 06:19 PM (#4185305)
--any idea of the thinking behind this "intent," der K?


I don't know, but it's clear the NBA wasn't prepared for the detail-oriented GMs like baseball's had to deal with.
   1264. Tripon Posted: July 17, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4185307)
I don't know, but it's clear the NBA wasn't prepared for the detail-oriented GMs like baseball's had to deal with.


Which is odd, since the salary cap and rules about RFA and bird rights, etc. makes it necessary for a GM to know all the little details if he wants to exploit the rules.

   1265. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 17, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4185313)
Next Media on Lin.

This is my interpretation, mind you, and could be wrong in several respects:
Having the incumbent team's cap allocation equivalent to their salary by year would satisfy the Early Bird (the kind of FA Lin is) wage criteria (such that they wouldn't be allowed to offer more than the MLE as they lack the cap room here), while taking away the ability of other clubs that are over the cap (most) to offer salaries like this (because the average is well above the MLE) - and gives a team in the Knicks position time to make changes in advance of the upcoming "balloon payment". Also, the Arenas provision predates the current version of the luxury tax, far more onerous than its predecessor.
   1266. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 17, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4185314)
   1267. andrewberg Posted: July 17, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4185316)
I'm thinking I'm jumping ship. But I just can't root for the Russian and that stadium. So let's go...Wolves!


If you think the Knicks are disappointing, let me warn you that this will not be over quickly, and that you will not enjoy this.

So, wonder if HOU lands Asik too. If so, bye bye Dwight?


I doubt it stops the pursuit. Whether it handcuffs them too much to take back enough detritus to entice Orlando is possible.
   1268. Bitter Mouse Posted: July 17, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4185330)
I'm thinking I'm jumping ship. But I just can't root for the Russian and that stadium. So let's go...Wolves!


Well everyone is welcome, but be warned it is not exactly a blessed franchise :)

EDIT: Coke to Berg.
   1269. The District Attorney Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4185402)
So the argument is that "the Knicks were fools to put themselves into a position where it would cost them $50M to give Lin a $15M salary" = "it's incorrect to say the Knicks would have had to pay $50M for Jeremy Lin"? How does that work, or what am I not getting?

I still would have paid it, though, I think he is actually worth that much money to them, unless he gets hurt or is a total flop¹, which (while more likely to happen to him than to, say, Kevin Durant or something) is showbiz.

¹ I've had an ongoing discussion with my friend about this. He thinks Lin is almost guaranteed to be worth the money off-court, unless he's the next Ryan Leaf. I think that if he's a marginal starter or a backup, he is not going to have a top-selling jersey and so forth. But either way, I have enough faith in the signature significance of his run that I'd go for it.
   1270. Amit Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4185417)
Even if Lin turned out to be a total flop, the Knicks could have waived him after Year 1 or 2, and used the CBA's stretch clause to spread his salary over the next 3 or 5 years. That could have reduced the risk for the Knicks.
   1271. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4185422)
So the argument is that "the Knicks were fools to put themselves into a position where it would cost them $50M to give Lin a $15M salary" = "it's incorrect to say the Knicks would have had to pay $50M for Jeremy Lin"? How does that work, or what am I not getting?

Can you re-word? I have no idea what you're saying here.
   1272. The District Attorney Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4185447)
Okay.... your #1204 agreed with #1203. #1203 said that Lin in 2015 wouldn't cost as much in luxury tax if Kidd, Camby and Felton hadn't been signed to add $10M to the '15 payroll. #1204 agreed, and (paraphrased) said "nonetheless, people are still saying Lin would cost $50M." My question is, how does that follow? Fine, there is a hypothetical world where Lin wouldn't cost $50M. But he would cost $50M in the real world that the Knicks created, no?

I mean, if someone were arguing that Lin's $15M salary will cost the team $50M but Kidd/Camby/Felton's $10M salary will only cost the team $10M, then yeah, that would be factually wrong. But if you're doing the math right, then you're right... right?

(Again, I think the truly unique and enormous off-the-court stuff does make him worth it, I am just not grokking this argument.)
   1273. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4185457)
[1272] Got it. I was referring to this: "But if you ask your stars and/or coach whether you should give a guy a contract that could easily pay him over $50 million," which is not true in the sense that the Knicks aren't paying Lin 50 million dollars. The Knicks are paying 50 million in tax because of Lin...and Melo and Amar'e and Chandler, etc. contracts.
   1274. The District Attorney Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4185462)
Oh, okay, then I misunderstood the math. I thought Lin's $15M times the luxury tax multiplier = $50M. I didn't realize everyone put together was $50M tax. (That's what we're saying, right?)

That should be the criteria, an individual's on-paper salary times whatever multiplier the luxury tax creates.
   1275. JJ1986 Posted: July 17, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4185470)
Can someone explain the CAA thing to me? I can understand wanting to have a good relationship with agents, but Dolan appears to want an exclusive relationship.
   1276. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 17, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4185551)
Knicks tax: The rate they pay is a function of how far over the tax threshold they are - it goes up for every $5 mil they are above the line. Also, well, here's a quote from Coon again (ESPN insider this time):

But while the Arenas provision helps protect teams from losing these free agents, the teams still have to be prepared for a huge salary jump in the third season. With the new luxury-tax rules taking over next season, the numbers can be daunting. For example, a $15 million salary to a team right at the tax line translates to a $28.75 million tax payment, for a total of $43.75 million. The same salary for a team $10 million over the tax line equates to an additional tax bill of $47.5 million and a total payout of $62.5 million. That's right -- for one player.

It can get worse. Starting in 2014-15 there will be a "repeater" tax, which further penalizes teams that are repeat offenders. It adds to the regular tax rate, so the team that is right at the tax line would have a tax bill of $43.75 million and a total payout of $58.75 million, and a team $10 million over the tax line would be taxed an additional $62.5 million and pay out a total of $77.5 million in salary and tax, all for one $15 million player.

It's enough to make any team think twice.

I'll note that this quote is from a "keep Lin" article.

Since we don't know where the Knicks will be vis-a-vis the tax threshold then, this is all guesswork (and one reason I've been speaking in generalities here) - but he'd be very expensive to keep (yes, because they've also spent so much on other players).
As for Kidd/Felton/Camby, I think bringing them (relatively low salary players) into the discussion is fairly unproductive - with the exception that one of them (let's say Felton) presumably is Lin's replacement. So, if Felton made 3M in the same season Lin would make 15M - then what we really, really care about taxwise is the fallout from a 12M difference in contracts (which in the extreme example, would potentially result in a total hit that's a bit south of $62M). [Too lazy to calculate it.]

EDIT: That said... while I'm a big proponent of judging deals at the margins, the fact that the potential reckoning for the deal is so far off, that spreading the impact of the tax across the whole payroll might be wise (better yet the projected payroll for '14-15, but who knows what that will be) - this would result in a much lower hit that you attribute to Lin alone.

***

CAA: Beats me.

   1277. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 17, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4185602)
Blazers/Rockets summer league game called w/ 42 sec left due to a Nolan Smith injury - being taken off in a stretcher. (Head/neck injury?)
   1278. andrewberg Posted: July 17, 2012 at 10:29 PM (#4185670)
The caa business may have been a factor but I think the impact is being overstated.
   1279. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4185672)
This was posted at the Lakers True Hoop affiliate about 35 minutes ago:

Hello Laker fans.

I’m a long-time (long-suffering) Knicks fan who is jumping ship because of this Jeremy Lin thing. Well, it’s not just because of Jeremy Lin, it’s because… well, you all know what a horrible organization the Knicks are. I can’t root for that bunch of losers anymore… It’s an abusive relationship.

I’m a transplanted New Yorker and have been living in Los Angeles since 1998. I love it here; I love Los Angeles more than any city in the world. I’m proud to say I’m converting to Laker fandom. I look forward to getting to know you all and to falling in love with the Purple and Gold!
   1280. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: July 17, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4185675)
@1279

I hope they reject him three times first.
   1281. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 17, 2012 at 10:47 PM (#4185689)
Bynum has been saying he wouldn't re-sign with Orlando - could the Nets swoop in for him? He's a local guy...
   1282. Topher Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4185698)
Any chance that the Knicks get forced to match the offer by the commissioner's office for basketball reasons? This does not seem to be in league interest.
   1283. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:05 PM (#4185699)
Any chance that the Knicks get forced to match the offer by the commissioner's office for basketball reasons?


Not 100% sure if you are kidding, (I assume you are) but if that happened, I think Stern would either get sued by the Rockets or Morey would use the money saved on Lin to hire an elite team of hit men to have Stern assassinated.
   1284. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4185701)
rumor: nugs get a.randolph for 3/6m. absolute steal
   1285. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4185704)
rumor: nugs get a.randolph for 3/6m. absolute steal

Nice. I figure I'm going to go with DEN, NOH, CLE, MIN and HOU as my League Pass teams next year and see which team best suits my fancy.
   1286. Tripon Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4185710)
I think Stern should use his basketball reasons to force Jim Dolan away from the Knicks.
   1287. JuanGone..except1game Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4185712)
rumor: nugs get a.randolph for 3/6m. absolute steal


Why do people hate young athletic bigs who haven't found their games after only a few years?

Haven't the experiences with Brendan Wright, Jordan Hill and Javelle McGee shown GM's anything in just the past year?!?! Anthony Randolph is going to be averaging 11pts/7.5rbs/2blocks by February and people are going to wonder why the Nuggets got such a steal and Omar Asik is making $6 million more per year.

   1288. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4185715)
Juan,

Apparently they hate Andray Blatche as well--he was the only guy amnestied today.
   1289. robinred Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:44 PM (#4185716)
Denver just amnestied the Birdman. Teams have until midnight EST to amnesty guys.
   1290. billyshears Posted: July 17, 2012 at 11:45 PM (#4185717)
I figure I'm going to go with DEN, NOH, CLE, MIN and HOU as my League Pass teams next year and see which team best suits my fancy.


I think I'm down to Denver and Houston, with an outside chance of just saying \"#### it" and going with the Lakers.
   1291. PJ Martinez Posted: July 18, 2012 at 12:37 AM (#4185734)
Clips amnestied Gomes.
   1292. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4185751)
Forget Dwight Howard, he's out until Dec

Wait, what? I haven't seen this yet.


So no one has anything on this? It's just flat out wrong?
   1293. robinred Posted: July 18, 2012 at 01:54 AM (#4185755)
I haven't seen anything definitive on Howard's back either way, but I don't read about him all that often. I do know that a lot of Lakers fans think the same thing Tripon does--that Howard will miss a big chunk in the early part of the season. Don't know about HOU or ORL fans.
   1294. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: July 18, 2012 at 05:12 AM (#4185774)
Hello Laker fans.

I’m a long-time (long-suffering) Knicks fan who is jumping ship because of this Jeremy Lin thing. Well, it’s not just because of Jeremy Lin, it’s because… well, you all know what a horrible organization the Knicks are. I can’t root for that bunch of losers anymore… It’s an abusive relationship.

I’m a transplanted New Yorker and have been living in Los Angeles since 1998. I love it here; I love Los Angeles more than any city in the world. I’m proud to say I’m converting to Laker fandom. I look forward to getting to know you all and to falling in love with the Purple and Gold!


David Stern just vetoed this move for basketball reasons, and is forcing him to go to the Clips instead.
   1295. thok Posted: July 18, 2012 at 08:10 AM (#4185809)
Denver just amnestied the Birdman. Teams have until midnight EST to amnesty guys.


FREE BIRD!

The Birdman has left the Cuckoo's Nest?

(Sorry, but the jokes write themselves.)
   1296. Bitter Mouse Posted: July 18, 2012 at 08:31 AM (#4185817)
I think I'm down to Denver and Houston, with an outside chance of just saying \"#### it" and going with the Lakers.


Really? Not the Lakers. Sith Lords get the cool costumes and all that, but have some pride. Real fans cheer for loser teams (says the Wolves fan).
   1297. Conor Posted: July 18, 2012 at 08:44 AM (#4185821)
Forget Dwight Howard, he's out until Dec

Wait, what? I haven't seen this yet.


So no one has anything on this? It's just flat out wrong?


I read this as being in reference to the Nets; now that they signed Hump and Lopez they can't deal either until Dec 15, so any Nets trade for Dwight would have to wait until then.
   1298. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 18, 2012 at 08:45 AM (#4185823)
So... if you're an under the cap team (and I say this generically, obviously actual rosters make a big difference here), do you look at:

* Blatche? - requires a three year deal, for at least the minimum.
Prior to last year, he was a fairly useful ballplayer, albeit one that overleveraged. Four straight years with a PER >= 15, three straight with a positive simple (nee Roland) rating. WS numbers were never good, but some of that is Washington's awful defense (though Blatche's rep ain't great, my take is that he's an adequate, though below average, defender).
OTOH, bad intangibles (mainly from being overly sensitive + poor conditioning + bad off court decisions, but there was also the whole 'this your captain [...2 hrs go by...] give me the ball in the post!' thing from last season's opener, among other events -- and really poor play last year (negative WS, simple rating of -8.0, effectively bench by the club for something like the 2nd half of the season. Even when he's productive (preceding 3 yrs: averaged 13.6/6.5/2.0 with a steal and a block in 28.4 min, shooting 46/27/75), he's not super efficient. Injury prone. Turns 26 next month.

* Andersen? - requires two years at the minimum
Since he's returned to Denver (4 seasons), he's been one of the best backup centers in the league. Positive simple rating every season, Per = 17.5, WS/48 = .178, per 36 min: 10.9 pts, 10.6 reb, 0.7 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.4 to, 3.5 blk, 3.9 pf, 56.2% FG, 67.8% FT, high FTA/FGA. Has trouble defending his own man sometimes (due to lack of bulk), but above average team defender due to blocks and mobility. Not a negative in the locker room, afaict. But... injury prone and has creepy allegations (like, child endangerment type allegations) hanging over his head that caused the Nuggets to grant him a leave of absence during the season.
Without the allegations, I'd be all over this dude - even though he's 34 and limited as a player. With 'em... I'd need to know A LOT more than I can know from my vantage point before considering it seriously.

* Gomes? - one year at the minimum
Game fell off a cliff, combo forwards are easy to find. No thanks.
   1299. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: July 18, 2012 at 08:52 AM (#4185830)
Since my fiance is such a big Celts fan, this is an easy call for me. I'm already looking forward to the mellifluous tones of Tommy Heinsohn filling my apartment this fall.
   1300. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: July 18, 2012 at 08:58 AM (#4185834)
the mellifluous tones of Tommy Heinsohn

You take that back!
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