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http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/8178617/stephen-smith-new-york-knicks-not-wait-jeremy-lin-great
Yes, Jeremy Lin needed to collude with the New York Knicks instead of looking out best for himself. Urgh.
I really liked that link on rebounding, NJ. I wonder the extent to which this is known/acted on in the NBA. I guess that's why 3p shooters seem to get their own rebounds a fair bit? Because no one expects it?
I was just about to say the same thing. Where the hell was he playing last?
Heh. I am way to immature to let that one pass uncommented.
That said, I'd read that his track record is ok + I'm inclined to believe this one (from the Howard side - doesn't cover orl's wants)
ATL used vlad as a combo fwd. not washed up, not good.
No way of knowing, but my assumption is that there are probably at least a handful of teams that are well versed in this sort of stuff. I can imagine that a guy like Kevin Love probably pays attention to this data and what seems to be a supernatural rebounding ability may, in fact, be part scouting/research. Or, it could be that he's the type of guy that doesn't pay attention to the data but picks up on it.
How well do they work in 2k12? I've played multiple associations with my cousin offline but I've never tried the online version. I would definitely be interested.
I looked at that and there isn't anything counterintuitive. Nothing that wouldn't be ingrained by playing basketball and fighting for a few thousand missed shots. I'm sure teams are aware of things like this and most have probably looked at similar data long before this article was published, but it's not something that can give you a competitive advantage.
Does this work on PCs or is it a console-only thing?
That was my thought as well (meaning no disrespect to anyone).
I think where it stands the possibility of becoming a competitive advantage is if specific players have unique patterns to their missed shots that could be scouted from the numbers. I have no idea if the sample sizes would be large enough to say such a thing with statistical confidence.
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I was about to mention this; it was in The Art of a Beautiful Game. Ballard also said IIRC that Rodman asked to rebound Jordan's and Pippen's misses in practice so that he could get a feel for where the ball went when they missed.
OTOH, maybe they figured it would have the opposite effect, like with girls named Chastity...
The contracts would absorb Lee's $4.25M salary for the first year.
While they might end up with Darko instead, it's because Jerry Reinsdorf is a cheap, cheap, cheap, cheap bastard and refuses to pay the luxury tax. Just like Radmonovic is cheaper than Korver, Darko is cheaper than Asik.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8179341/nba-jeremy-lin-six-degrees-separation-lin-camp
this must be alternate universe or something.
Is there anything left, or is next year another year wandering the desert? Am I missing something?
In my depression I had forgotten about him. Small consolation, but consolation indeed. Thanks!
In many ways Dennis Rodman is one of the more interesting dudes in basketball in a long time. I don't mean the goofy persona, but the whole package. Such an odd bundle of skills and quirks and drives, just really interesting.
Some guy posted in the comments section that Howard's "Decision" special will have "2 seasons and 24 episodes."
That's the sort of thing that if done in fiction, would not be considered believable.
Only Chastity I can think of became a dude.
How is that even possible?
Ryan Anderson will not be worth that contract in New Orleans.
Will he be able to take roughly 8 3pers per 36 in that offense? If not, he'll look pretty crappy.
Didn't we have a discussion during the season on whether Anderson was this good or just plays off Howard? I know I was in the second group.
Let's face it, most of these guys in the middle of payrolls won't be worth their contracts. They're the worst contracts in the NBA - good players being paid like All-Stars.
Bynum's motivation would be say hell no to an extension. Kill the trade, and if Howard isn't coming to the Lakers Bynum gets his max money and continue in the footsteps of Mikan, Kareem, and Shaq.
Despite that, maybe Lakers can convince Cleveland that it's all an act, and once Bynum's chance of staying in LA are gone, he'll change his tune and be willing to sign where he can get the most money.
Cleveland can give up what Lakers don't have - the draft picks to Orlando. But I'm curious to see how Orlando gets rid of bad contracts this way. Lakers don't have room, and that seems like too much for Cleveland to do, give up picks, take back bad contracts, when the return is only Bynum. Can't see them offering as much as Houston would for Howard.
Kermit Washington?
I think someone said this earlier, but I will reiterate that I think Orlando will wait until Houston's RFA issues are resolved to weigh the offers. The LAL/CLE deal may make the most sense at that point, but I can't see them jumping at it without actually seeing the alternative.
Even if Unibrow isn't Howard, there's a fair chance he becomes "a behemoth."
I guess the obvious counter is that there might not be much available next summer, which is certainly a fair point.
I guess this is true, but one could argue that because of the odd impact of max contracts that the mid range guys are OK, but the upper end is wrong. One reason this view might be true is that there are only so many slots (on a team and on the court at any one time) so a marginal upgrade in a slot is worth it, especially since there are only so many "worth more than the max" guys and if you can't get one of them you should still try to improve somewhere.
I am not sure I buy the logic above, but I don't think it is completely out there.
I meant more in terms of build than ability. Davis isn't really a low post beast.
Based on what he did in Orlando without Howard on the floor - yeah, he potentially could. His defensive board numbers might also get a bump up. I'm a bit concerned with NO's lack of a point guard - that could be a problem.
He's more of an efficiency guy than bulk scorer anyway.
Yup (subj. to Andrew's 1447). (Although I think there's a possible model out there based on midlevel guys, but it'd be real hard to pull off.) That doesn't mean none of them are - Anderson's been remarkably valuable (relative to rep) by almost any regular season measure.
Anything happen?
Lakers got Dwight Howard for Bynum, and then somehow traded Steve Blake, MWP, and a second round pick to the Thunder for Westbrook and Durant.
And then Stern nixed it all.
Depends what kinds of activities you want to do. I can't say anything about clubs and bars. In my case a vacation mostly centers on things that a 1.5 and 4 year old girl can enjoy. We went to Toronto Islands, which is pretty cool. You have to take a ferry over to it, no cars allowed. Lots of parks, playgrounds, beaches, and an amusement park. They even have the site of Babe Ruth's first professional homerun - yup, the Toronto AAA team was on this Island back in 1914. We didn't get to that side of the island though.
Going to the top of the CN Tower is something that you sort of feel obliged to do, I mean, you're there and who knows when you'll get a chance to take a vacation there again, right? But it wasn't that enjoybale. You wait about a half hour to get an elevator taking you up, walk around, snap a few pictures, and then you've got to wait another half hour to get back down.
Plenty of ethnic neighborhoods in Toronto too if you like eating random tasty foods. Skydome is a giant concrete monstrosity with no soul, but it is right next to the CN Tower and there is a brewery that you can tour across the street. Hockey Hall of Fame is in town but wasn't interested.
Hockey Hall of Fame, if you're at all into that sport. CN Tower is pretty neat too. Blue Jays game if they're at home. All of the above are walking distance from each other and can be done in a day.
2. Thanks to everyone on the Toronto advice. Think I'll do the CN Tower and City Islands. Hope it's feasible to do both in a day.
3. I'll look into the Association stuff some more. I was thinking of it more along the lines of when 2K13 comes out. I know a few of my IRL friends are interested in doing it and wanted to see if there was interest here as well so we could maybe have a decent sized league with a relatively short schedule. Don't want it to be anything overly time consuming. Will keep you guys posted.
I just read the first half of it on the beach today. Love it so far, will have more to say about it when I finish it.
Nazr may go to chi (not BRK); Asik replacement?
I was wrong on hill (who I initially thought would be out of Lal's price range ... Changed my mind a ways back but there are a few thoughts I don't vomit on this board). Nice keep, but I wonder if his #s on d are real (they're real bad)
Must say I'm fairly pleased with how the post-Nash rebuild has started.
So if the Bobcats had won the lottery like they were "supposed" to, causing Gordon to leave for Phoenix, it would have been the wrong thing to do? That seems like an awfully convenient short-term post hoc analysis. Let's say that Davis has Oden levels of injuries for the next two years. Does it go back to being a poor basketball move? Or let's say that Gordon keeps on getting hurt every year and never develops into an elite player, leaving the Hornets capped out.
I think the Clippers trade was poor value. In addition, the Hornets haven't even made the playoffs, let alone contended, with the guys they got from the trade. I thought the Stern decision was horrible both in a precedent setting and basketball POV.
Have the Suns used the amnesty? If not, Channing Frye would be a likely candidate.
Childress, and it was the right call.
Well, even if the Bobcats won the lottery, Gordon couldn't have just left for Phoenix: New Orleans had the right to match. Now, maybe if Davis isn't coming he makes a big enough stink that they decide not to keep him, but we can't assume that would happen.
So Gordon's part of the deal. You're right that saying the trade was a good idea because they got the #1 pick is a questionable thing to do, though.
My read on the situation was that if NOH had won the lottery, they do not match on Gordon, as the team would be very far away from contention. As it was, they came very close to not matching.
Gordon is part of the deal, but Gordon is on a max deal now. He has very little surplus value (imo, his value is negative), so that isn't a big plus.
That was never the issue, as I have said. Some Lakers fans went there out of frustration, but it wasn't really about that--it was about the conflict of interest built into the situation, and the possibility remains (and is fairly strong, actually, IMO) that Mark Cuban will wind up with Chris Paul and Dwight Howard on his team. Simmons can trust Stern if he likes; I choose not to.
So, as is the case with about 95% of what he says about the Lakers, Simmons doesn't get it.
On the 5% side, however, he is probably right in his assertion that the Lakers are too old and too slow on defense to win the championship as constructed, and that is why Howard would really matter. I think Kupchak and Buss believe this as well, and that is why the Lakers are still trying to get Howard and are apparently willing to trade for him even without his being willing to commit to extending.
According to whom? That does not square with my understanding of the situation.
Gordon is part of the deal, but Gordon is on a max deal now. He has very little surplus value (imo, his value is negative), so that isn't a big plus.
OK, so what's the surplus value from the LAL/HOU offer? Dragic is in the same situation, where free agency has theoretically removed his surplus value, and I don't see an argument that Martin, Odom or Scola provide surplus value.
And the Lakers' deal wasn't poor value? There was no deal that would have left them as a contender, or even a realistic playoff team, so using that as a benchmark is completely irrelevant. Maybe they finish 11th instead of 15th, which has negative value, but there was no 15 win upgrade from the team they ended up with.
What they needed were assets for future seasons, and a shot at a franchise player. On that score, the unprotected pick from Minny alone had more value to this Hornets team than anything they would have gotten in the Laker deal. Combine that with being bad enough to have a shot at a good pick themselves. And if they miss, they can still add a guy who will help them down the road, while likely still being bad enough to get another roll next season. I don't think it takes any hindsight to see how this is a much better deal for NO.
What we see here again is that when guys as good as Chris Paul change teams, it affects the entire landscape of the league. Daryl Morey has since had to go back to the drawing board and now has Jeremy Lin instead of Kyle Lowry and remains engaged on his Quixotic Quest to land Dwight Howard. Mitch Kupchak and Jim Buss, still trying to get a PG after losing out on Paul, have spent five draft picks, including three first-rounders, getting Sessions, and now Nash--and of course they too are still involved in attempts to acquire Howard.
The Clippers, meanwhile, with Paul on the team, have now emerged as a legitimate big-market ringchasing destination in spite of being run by Sterling, letting Olshey walk, and being coached by Del Negro. They have extended Blake Griffin, retained Chauncey Billups, and signed Lamar Odom (who melted down in part due to how the trade went down, and whose TPE was used by the Lakers to get Nash) and Grant Hill. And the latter three moves were all largely motivated by a desire to retain Paul, who turned down the offer of an extension there, and who may still wind up playing with Howard. Howard, of course, is STILL in Orlando and his situation has affected Dallas, Brooklyn, and Atlanta profoundly as well.
So, when Stern decided to fukc around with a trade involving a guy who can do what Paul does, particularly with the team-up stuff floating around, he affected several franchises for years to come. The argument that Stern himself made for this was that it was "a frozen moment in time", in his words. That may be true in Stern's mind, but the veto was more like an earthquake that continues putting out aftershocks for the league as a whole.
Sure. But in theory, at least, only the interests of New Orleans mattered, right? As a steward of that team, the league office maybe did as well as they could (though obviously subsequent luck may be clouding the picture here).
In his statement regarding the veto, Stern referred only to the interests of New Orleans. Obviously, Dan Gilbert was upset purely about how well the Lakers seemed to make out in the deal -- and that sort of conflict is precisely why the league should not get into such situations. But purely as a steward of the Hornets, one can argue that Stern made the right move.
Edit: And we can probably add this trade to the evidence for the argument that, when trading a superstar, you should go for picks and prospects, and not solid players who would seem to balance out the "value" each team is giving up.
Agreed. I hated the league takeover, precisely because of the inherent conflict of intrest it presents, and I think it's perfectly right that Stern and co should take a lot of heat for that. But once they've gone there? I think then there is a fiduciary responsibility to the organization, and a moral obligation to the Hornets' fans to act that role as well as they possibly can. If this had been Dolan nixing a deal, people would have just shrugged and moved on.
As long as he's willing to be consistent I'm OK with that. With hindsight, the Gasol trade was not "gift-wrapped for the Lakers", but a mutually beneficial trade, since Memphis not only got an equal Gasol in Marc, they got a cheaper player (for a few years at least) who hits his stride just as the rest of the team became playoff relevant.
Obviously, I am probably not as clued-in as you are on the situation, but there were a number of articles that seemed to cast doubt on it. For example here:
I could be way off, but that was my (admittedly somewhat hazy) recollection.
It's news when an owner gets cold feet after a deal has been completed by his GM.
Also, is Gordon really better than Kevin Martin? They both appear to be poor defenders and Martin is the better shooter. Gordon is a marginally better passer, but he gives it up more often also. Gordon is a shockingly poor rebounder, and obviously, there are the health issues.
That's nothing more than generic GM speak, the usual stuff when the matching team makes the signing team sweat out the waiting period. As I posted here anytime Gold Star hinted at NO not matching, it just didn't make sense and it was only coming from Phoenix/Gordon. Nothing that I saw during the entire process made me think NO wouldn't match; there was discussion on the thread here about Phoenix with Gordon, so perhaps that's impacting your recollection.
Nazr may go to chi (not BRK); Asik replacement?
Yes, for the minimum. And Bellini to the Bulls for the BAE is rumored now, too. Of course, outside of the Korver trade for jackshit (because I bet almost anything the Bulls don't use the TPE - actually, if they use the BAE they're up against the hard cap and cannot use the full value of the TPE), I don't know any of the Bulls moves this offseason are official yet, Hinrich included. The Bulls have until midnight tomorrow to match on Asik; they've just waited of that to finish before doing anything else. It boggles my mind the Bulls have let themselves do absolutely nothing while Houston's taking their damn sweet time getting that finished.
The Bulls have gotten significantly worse, IMO, from last year to this (because of how much they relied on their bench to be such a great regular season team).
Gordon's 23 and has gotten considerably better each of the last two years. Martin is 29 and has missed a decent amount of time himself.
It's quite possible Gordon's career will end up resembling Martin's in value, but he has an OK shot at being better than Martin, and, in any case, New Orleans is likely getting the best years of Gordon's career, whereas Martin seems likely to decline over the next five years.
Is it possible they are tanking to some degree? Would that necessarily be a bad move, given the uncertainty with Rose?
Sure, but it took 4 years and a LOT of luck for a post hoc rationalization of that trade to emerge. A scrub and a 2nd round pick for a superstar in his prime? When the justification for a trade hinges upon a 48th pick developing into a star, it's going to get widely criticized every time, and rightfully so, IMO. Even though a few 2nd round picks have turned out to be great players (M.Gasol, Ginobili, Millsap, Boozer, Arenas, etc), they're just not a very valuable commodity at the time. That trade ends up being horribly unfair 99 percent of the time.
I actually agree with Laker fans who think the Paul veto was more about Stern screwing LA than it was about his doing what he thought was best for New Orleans. That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Gasol fiasco was front and center on his mind when he made that choice. THAT was the trade he should've voided, and now it's like he's trying to fix his mistake (and as has already been pointed out, doesn't seem to notice or care that he also screwed Houston in the process).
Lakers gave up more than a scrub and a 2, they also traded 2 first rounders. The 2nd rounder just happened to be the one player who panned out. But it's true that considering these would be late first rounders, it was likely that Memphis would not get great value back.
As for Marc Gasol, it didn't take him 4 years to make the trade look decent. He's been a productive starter all 4 years, and his stats look about the same. Maybe it took people 4 years to notice as the team around him improved.
Yeah, his wardrobe was top notch last year.
Is it possible they are tanking to some degree? Would that necessarily be a bad move, given the uncertainty with Rose?
This is what I think. I think that they're looking at next season, seeing two of their top three players missing significant time, and just packing it in. I don't know where I stand on it. And, while Asik is the one piece I hate to see go, I'm still not sure how valuable of a piece he is.
2008: Don't trade #5 (Kevin Love) to Minnesota for OJ Mayo
2009: Draft James Harden over Hasheem the Dream.
Sure. Like I said, trust Stern if you want to. I don't. Remember that in the 24 hours prior to the Paul deal going down, there were big headlines at ESPN: Lakers after Paul and Howard! And a bunch of guys here moaned and groaned about it. If the Lakers had gotten Paul and Howard less than a week after the new CBA had been signed, there would have been a huge backlash and Stern and the CBA would have looked stupid. This way, he gets two blingy teams in LA, (Lob City! The Battle of LA!), defended by a lot of people since he screwed the Lakers and they enjoy seeing that, and now he gets props for the way the deal has turned out for NO. But at the end of the day, Stern is saying, "Trust me. These other factors and what the other owners thought had nothing to do with my decision."
Another thing, along with the Gilbert email and Cuban's running his mouth while manuevering to get the same players, is that in the initial round of negotiations, Olshey was reportedly reluctant to give up either the Minnesota pick or Eric Gordon, which is supposedly why Demps went with the Lakers deal. Once the league got into it, however, Olshey gave up both.
Finally, as noted above, there is no serious indication that Stern told Demps either
a) I will not approve any deal that brings in veterans with high salaries.
or
b) I will be watching this very carefully.
Stern spun it that way later, and an (admittedly biased) Houston source said that the idea that the deal wasn't closed and Demps was not under the impression that it was his call to make was "an outright lie."
Bringing it back to Howard, as I have said, I have never thought that "what Dwight wants" is all that mysterious. He wants to play with Paul or Williams on a contending team, preferably in a big market. This has gone on so long in part because for a variety of reasons, he has not been able to make that happen. Three of the definitive things that Howard has done/said along with all of the back-and-forth indicate this: First, he opted-in for this year, which means that if he wants to, he can hit FA at the same time Paul does. Second, once Williams (and Johnson) were pretty much locked in in Brooklyn, he said "Trade me to Brooklyn." Third, he had his agent deny reports that he would sign an extension with the Lakers if traded there. And of course, Paul has said he will not sign an extension with the Clippers right now and will explore FA, even though they re-upped Griffin and kept Billups, the latter of which Paul supposedly lobbied the FO very heavily to do. Obviously, money plays into that, but I would be very surprised if Paul and Howard are not communicating about the situation.
The defense of Stern--what he did worked for the Hornets--is reasonable on a simple level. But there is no reason at all to believe that this other stuff (as well as a purported desire to keep the Hornets in NO for political and personal reasons) didn't enter his head or affect what happened, and there are ongoing repercussions for the league as a whole.
True, but that's still a trade that had a very slim chance of working out fairly for Memphis. It defied some pretty long odds.
Indeed. That is one of the less talked-about what-ifs in the league. Simmons to his credit brought it up in the column.
That is if you assume that Memphis' FO knew as much about Marc Gasol as you and Simmons did. Since they had traded for his older brother on draft night, I find that highly unlikely.
At the time, Love wasn't near the lock that he is now. This one was pretty defensible.
2009: Draft James Harden over Hasheem the Dream.
This was ridiculous. Only Big East homers thought Tha-bust could play. It really is going to hinder their franchise for a long time.
I don't really think that in terms that stark, actually. I just don't believe that the Lakers/CBA/buzz/backlash/other owners/Clippers were not a big part of Stern's calculus in making the decision that he did. Those kinds of issues are what define conflict of interest in some respects.
At work so I don't want to take the time to look it up, but did Memphis have any draft picks that year before Marc was taken at #48? If not, then I might concede that this could've been the case. But if they did and took inferior players instead, then I find the above defense hard to believe. If they knew M.Gasol was going to be what he is, then why not draft him themselves and trade Pau for someone else?
I know, I wasn't really referring to the Laker fans on this board. But many of the ones I know personally seemed to think it was a deliberate middle finger from Stern to the Lakers in an attempt to show that he was serious about his efforts to provide competitive balance and help end big market/small market discrepancies.
I don't think they can tank enough to miss the playoffs. The way I see it now, there's only 5 locks in the East: Miami, Boston, Brooklyn, New York and Indiana (not necessarily in that order). Philly, Milwaukee, Atlanta and Orlando (if Howard is there all year, they make it; if not, they don't, so it's just easier to put them on the bubble) are maybes. I think Cleveland and Washington are still a year away. I don't see Toronto, Detroit, or Charlotte making it in any scenario. If Rose misses all season, if Deng does end up having the surgery and misses half the year/isn't 100% the rest, if Boozer has a normal Boozer injury year, and if Noah had more ankle problems, then they'll definitely miss the playoffs. If 2 or 3 or those things happen, they still could maybe sneak in. But considering they will be paying the tax this year, I wouldn't say they're actively tanking.
I think that Watson, Brewer, Korver and Lucas are probably a bit overrated too and that Hinrich, Bellineli, Butler and Teague can probably match their production.
The former guys all looked better in the system/on this team than the latter 4 (and there's no question it's a big drop from Asik to Mohammed defensively), but replacement is a clear step down (maybe not Hinrich, but he will be a step down from Watson's 11-12).
I agree with your general point, but I think it is pretty likely that his value improved quite a bit in the time between when he was drafted at #48 and and when he was traded to Memphis. He was the MVP of the Spanish League around that time, but the trade might have been in the middle of the season. I remember some speculation that he would potentially have been a mid first round pick if he was going into the draft the next year.
I was on vacation during that draft and recall thinking, "huh? I thought we were building around Jefferson?" The next two years reinforced that confusion, but it worked out for the best. I also recently noticed that in a couple of mock drafts, Love was slated to go further down, as low as 9, even leading up to the draft.
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