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Monday, July 02, 2012

OT: NBA basketball July Thread 2012

I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: Jim Furtado trolling his own site when he’s bored.

Tripon Posted: July 02, 2012 at 04:21 PM | 2487 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball

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   201. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:16 AM (#4173328)
Extremely geeked over the Lakers getting Nash. It's a particular surprise to me, since Nash was just on the Dan Patrick radio program last week saying that it would be difficult to see himself playing for the Lakers because of all the battles he's had with them over the years.
   202. Maxwn Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:17 AM (#4173329)
Why should the free agent have to participate in a trade to maximize his earnings? The old teams often end up with more "compensation" than they apparently have the leverage to justify. If the league wants to compensate the old teams, why not do so directly via added draft picks, etc?

Look, don't ask me, I am a strong opponent of salary caps and the sort of labor-market rules that create these sign-and-trade situations and various other assorted stupid player movement issues. But that's not what you were saying in the first post. You were characterizing it as the players and their old teams conspiring to rip off the new teams. That's just not what's happening. Everyone knows the rules, everyone can refuse to participate if they want. It's how making any sort of trade works.

I would disagree with the idea that the old teams usually get much more compensation in a sign-and-trade than their leverage would indicate. Maybe you could point to a deal that indicates differently, but I would say the old teams normally get something worth just about enough to keep them from refusing to participate. Even this deal, Sarver got a good haul given the situation, but we're still talking about 2 future likely mid-to-late 1st rounders and 2 future second-rounders. The present value of all that combined is probably like the 25th pick in this last draft. It's enough to make it foolish for the Suns to not participate, but we're still not talking about a ton of value here.

Just to head off a potential reply, based on your first post, I would point out that the Carmelo deal was not a sign-and-trade. He was still under contract with the Nuggets at the time, which gave them the ability to control where he went during the last 2 or 3 months of his contract. If they traded him elsewhere, it could have significantly complicated the Knick's pursuit of him in the offseason. That is significantly more leverage than a S&T team that only controls whether they participate in the deal or not. If the Knicks got ripped off in the Melo deal it was because they overvalued Melo, not anything to do with S&T's.
   203. Srul Itza At Home Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:28 AM (#4173332)
if you're going to run a team to not get roasted by the fans, you might as well not even own a team.


The quote you're looking for is "If you listen to the fans, you'll be sitting up there with them."
   204. baudib Posted: July 05, 2012 at 01:14 AM (#4173350)
I haven't looked, but I predict Liberty Ballers is melting down over the Hawes re-signing.

Nash makes the Lakers prime title contenders, IMO.
   205. tshipman Posted: July 05, 2012 at 01:23 AM (#4173352)
I would disagree with the idea that the old teams usually get much more compensation in a sign-and-trade than their leverage would indicate. Maybe you could point to a deal that indicates differently, but I would say the old teams normally get something worth just about enough to keep them from refusing to participate. Even this deal, Sarver got a good haul given the situation, but we're still talking about 2 future likely mid-to-late 1st rounders and 2 future second-rounders. The present value of all that combined is probably like the 25th pick in this last draft. It's enough to make it foolish for the Suns to not participate, but we're still not talking about a ton of value here.


One of the first's is in 2015. It's somewhat likely that pick is relatively high up.

In addition, although no one has mentioned this, it also makes it significantly less likely that Howard goes to LA.
   206. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 05, 2012 at 01:32 AM (#4173354)
Suns sign Beasley and Dragic. Whoo.
   207. Maxwn Posted: July 05, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4173357)
One of the first's is in 2015. It's somewhat likely that pick is relatively high up.

Somewhat more than the '13 pick, yes. But it's also in 2015 which means its value now is not as strong even though it does have some lottery potential. And even then, if you set the over/under on that pick at 15, I think I'd still take the over. It's certainly a nice asset to have, but we're not talking about something the Lakers should lose much sleep over, imo.
   208. Maxwn Posted: July 05, 2012 at 01:57 AM (#4173360)
I've got to say, given what Kobe and Nash both represent to a large percentage of the basketball intelligentsia/blogosphere/fanbase, this is about the funniest thing that I can imagine happening this off-season. The cognitive dissonance taking place in various parts of the basketball world tonight has got to be off the charts.
   209. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:46 AM (#4173363)
I've got to say, given what Kobe and Nash both represent to a large percentage of the basketball intelligentsia/blogosphere/fanbase, this is about the funniest thing that I can imagine happening this off-season.


I mentioned that indirectly on the previous page; if nothing else, this deal makes the 2013 Lakers far more interesting to most fans than they would have been otherwise, both on and off the floor. As to how good it will make them...I am a big believer in what Nash can do for an offense, but this will be an ancient team in a deep conference. We will see. If they do actually get Howard now, well, then, yes, they are back in the conversation.

They may try to S/T Sessions and get a bench player that way, I suppose.

Dragic got 4/34 from PHX. I am guessing that NO matches on Gordon.
   210. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:28 AM (#4173384)
So I agree that is admirable of Sarver to take the heat from his fanbase and do this for Nash, but there's a very real sense in which he's getting four picks just to sign some paperwork.

Maxwn covered what I think about the value of these picks.
I don't think Nash would've said - 'it's this deal or nothing', that doesn't reflect my understanding (limited as it is) of the relationship he has with Phoenix management.

I do like how the Dragic talk went from 'he wants at least 10M per year' to 'he took 7.5M (not including unlikely bonuses)' real quick.
   211. Conor Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:30 AM (#4173386)
So you're saying the odds of that happening dropped from 100-1 to 150-1?


Will anyone give me some action on this?

Still interested?


Ha, I still think it would have been a good bet to make.
   212. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 05, 2012 at 09:30 AM (#4173406)
I've got to say, given what Kobe and Nash both represent to a large percentage of the basketball intelligentsia/blogosphere/fanbase, this is about the funniest thing that I can imagine happening this off-season. The cognitive dissonance taking place in various parts of the basketball world tonight has got to be off the charts.

I'm actively trying not to think about it.
   213. Fanshawe Posted: July 05, 2012 at 09:37 AM (#4173411)
Houston made their backloaded offer to Lin, but Lin can't sign until next week.* Is there anything stopping the Knicks from going to Lin and saying "We'll match the total dollars for you but we're not going to back load it" to avoid the poison pill? If NY can do that, it seems to me that these backloaded poision pill deals are very limited in their utility, but I'm pretty ignorant about the new cap/luxury tax system, so maybe there are other benefits I'm not aware of.

*To the extent it matters, this article suggests that Lin and Houston haven't aggreed in principle or reached any other type of handshake agreement.
   214. Conor Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:06 AM (#4173428)
Houston made their backloaded offer to Lin, but Lin can't sign until next week.* Is there anything stopping the Knicks from going to Lin and saying "We'll match the total dollars for you but we're not going to back load it" to avoid the poison pill? If NY can do that, it seems to me that these backloaded poision pill deals are very limited in their utility, but I'm pretty ignorant about the new cap/luxury tax system, so maybe there are other benefits I'm not aware of.


I don't think so; as far as I understand it the yearly value in the first 2 years has to be at the mid level exception, which is around $5 million. So there would be no way to match the total value without backloading the last 2 years.
   215. billyshears Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4173430)
As a Knicks fan, I have to say this really sucks. For about 30 minutes, I was getting really excited about Nash.

I guess there's a risk that I look really stupid for saying this in around a week, but what is the upside for Houston in making a run at Lin? The odds of the Knicks not matching are very low, and getting the Knicks to overpay doesn't help Houston all that much. Seems to me that they basically just tie up that money for 3 days while the Knicks wait to match.
   216. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:16 AM (#4173432)
So long as the money isn't dwarfed by the Rockets offer, doesn't it make sense for Lin to stay in NY even if they can't match the offer? He has the potential to be a major marketable star with lucrative endorsement deals in the media capital. I guess that could still happen in Houston (Yao was pretty marketable) but I'd say its less likely.

Unless he thinks the Knicks are an absolute mess and doesn't want to play for a loser.
   217. Conor Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:25 AM (#4173436)
So long as the money isn't dwarfed by the Rockets offer, doesn't it make sense for Lin to stay in NY even if they can't match the offer? He has the potential to be a major marketable star with lucrative endorsement deals in the media capital. I guess that could still happen in Houston (Yao was pretty marketable) but I'd say its less likely.

Unless he thinks the Knicks are an absolute mess and doesn't want to play for a loser.


The most the Knicks could offer without matching an offer sheet is like $24 million over 4 years. But Lin is probably pretty sure the Knicks are going to match, so he basically picks up $6 million just by signing the offer sheet.
   218. Jimmy P Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4173448)
I guess there's a risk that I look really stupid for saying this in around a week, but what is the upside for Houston in making a run at Lin? The odds of the Knicks not matching are very low, and getting the Knicks to overpay doesn't help Houston all that much. Seems to me that they basically just tie up that money for 3 days while the Knicks wait to match.

True. But what's the downside? Sure they tie up their money, but who would they use it on? To tie it up (and it's only tied until the Knicks match) for a small chance at getting the guy you want is worth it.

Yet another premier player drawn to the power of playing for the Knicks at MSG.

What's the point of this week between free agency starting and paperwork being signed? It seems stupid.
   219. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4173466)
Thabeet signed a two-year with OKC.
   220. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4173485)
Thabeet signed a two-year with OKC.

Guess they will no longer need Ibaka.
   221. Booey Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:20 AM (#4173491)
For ##### sake. Why does Toronto even has a basketball team?


To serve as a farm system for the relevant franchises, of course.
   222. The District Attorney Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:24 AM (#4173494)
what is the upside for Houston in making a run at Lin?
They must just think he's worth the money, as with Asik.

I suppose they might also figure they can re-activate their pre-existing Chinese fanbase from the Yao era. Although it's kind of interesting, considering of course that China and Taiwan are famously perpetually at odds. But I suppose that's okay when the tension stems from China claiming everything Taiwanese (including Lin specifically, I seem to recall) as their own...
   223. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4173508)
Lowry made a very strong public complaint about McHale, and now Dragic is gone. I am pretty sure the Knicks will match, but if they don't, Lowry would be an excellent trading chip in a Dwight Howard move (or another big move) if Morey still wants to try to do that.

I will be interested to see what Ray Allen does. ESPN says James and Paul are recruiting him.

   224. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:02 PM (#4173540)
Don't see why Toronto wouldn't take a stab at Lin. He'd sell a lot of tickets.

   225. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4173555)
Thabeet signed a two-year with OKC.

Guess they will no longer need Ibaka.
You mean Perkins.
   226. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4173559)
Yes, I couldn't tell if the Ibaka comment was sarcasm, but I think the Thabeet move is clearly a way to set themselves up better to amnesty Perkins if they eventually decide that is the way to go.
   227. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4173567)
Thabeet signed a two-year with OKC.

Guess they will no longer need Ibaka.
You mean Perkins.

I'm still terribly excited about Nash joining the Lakers. Besides defense, Nash brings everything the Lakers so desperately needed: long-range shooting, passing, ball handling, ability to penetrate defenses, and FINALLY someone besides Bryant who can make good decisions on the perimeter.

Yes, they're old. So what? With Bryant and Gasol still in the fold and Bryant not going anywhere, youth was never an option.

I wonder if Nash-to-LAL changes the dynamics of the D12 situation at all.
   228. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4173584)
Stein Tweeting that Nelson is returning to Orlando.
   229. Conor Posted: July 05, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4173605)
I'm still terribly excited about Nash joining the Lakers. Besides defense, Nash brings everything the Lakers so desperately needed: long-range shooting, passing, ball handling, ability to penetrate defenses, and FINALLY someone besides Bryant who can make good decisions on the perimeter.

Yes, they're old. So what? With Bryant and Gasol still in the fold and Bryant not going anywhere, youth was never an option.


Yeah, my buddy is a Lakers fan and he was complaining about this, but I don't get it. You have Steve Nash playing PG now!
   230. Spivey Posted: July 05, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4173654)
I agree getting Nash is a big-time move. The Lakers are now in a position to where 4 of their 5 starters are all-stars and generally going to be better than the guy guarding them.
   231. smileyy Posted: July 05, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4173656)
I would enjoy the heck out of a LAL/MIA Finals with Nash involved.

It could make for an interesting dynamic -- the last couple years have drifted away from the theme of "How do you match up with the Lakers bigs?" because LAL just wasn't good enough for that to matter. If Nash changes that, the interior weakness of the "best" lineups for a lot of teams may be able to be exploited.

Edit: Nash is a defensive sieve, right? I mean, an out-of-this-world-offensive-catalysing-sieve, but a sieve nonetheless.
   232. JuanGone..except1game Posted: July 05, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4173666)
I'm still terribly excited about Nash joining the Lakers. Besides defense, Nash brings everything the Lakers so desperately needed: long-range shooting, passing, ball handling, ability to penetrate defenses, and FINALLY someone besides Bryant who can make good decisions on the perimeter.

Yes, they're old. So what? With Bryant and Gasol still in the fold and Bryant not going anywhere, youth was never an option.


I'm with you brother! I just don't see how a rationale Lakers fan can be against this. The Lakers aren't in position to look at the long term right now. Kobe has only a couple of prime years left and Gasol's the wrong side of 30. It's funny that even Danny Ainge, the man who still thinks Red should have broken up the 80's Celtics, has come to the same conclusion that if your close you need to go all in. I'm not worried about Kobe adjusting and I think that the defense will be good enough to protect Nash as long as the offense is humming. Yesterday was a great day for the Lakers.

The worst part of all of this is that I have to give up my hatred of Jim Buss. I still think that he's made a terrible decision to have Mike Brown coach this team, but his record of being strongly behind the Bynum draft, Gasol trade, CP3 trade and now Nash, gives him a semi-permanent pass in my book.
   233. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4173677)
Nash is a defensive sieve, right? I mean, an out-of-this-world-offensive-catalysing-sieve, but a sieve nonetheless.


Yes.

Yeah, I left that there, figuring that Joe, a committed and intense KobeHater, (although he is usually smart enough not to talk about it much here, except for stuff like leaving ellipses) would get right on it.


I do try to stay away from the Kobe stuff because I know I'm generally not very good at being rational about him. That was a softball, though - and on a day when the hated Lakers acquired one of my favorite players ever, I couldn't just let that sit there.
   234. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4173681)
I do try to stay away from the Kobe stuff because I know I'm generally not very good at being rational about him. That was a softball, though - and on a day when the hated Lakers acquired one of my favorite players ever, I couldn't just let that sit there.
Your pain, it is nectar to me.

   235. smileyy Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4173689)
It's funny that even Danny Ainge, the man who still thinks Red should have broken up the 80's Celtics, has come to the same conclusion that if your close you need to go all in.


Was that a pride thing as a player? Not wanting that group of guys to be seen at less than their peak?

I mean, what are the Lakers options? They can be mediocre now, and not-good later, or they can be contenders now, and also not-good later on. FFF.
   236. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4173705)
thabeet on a 2 yr min deal makes sense to me

rumors!
- hou to send lowry to toronto for package incl. future 1st. protections around pick designed to ensure that pick will be in the lottery. deal also includes forbes to hou (1/1.5m)
hou also reportedly offered lowry staright up for any pick inthis yrs draft b/w 5-10.
- jamal c to lac for 3/15.7m (or 4/25, depending on where you read)
- billups stays with lac for 1/up_to_4.3m
- kidd to stay w dal 3/9m
   237. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4173706)
It could make for an interesting dynamic -- the last couple years have drifted away from the theme of "How do you match up with the Lakers bigs?" because LAL just wasn't good enough for that to matter. If Nash changes that, the interior weakness of the "best" lineups for a lot of teams may be able to be exploited.
Exactly. Even in the OKC series when the Lakers lost in just 5, two of those losses were of the last-minute variety. The Lakers weren't good enough to come out ahead in those situations, but with Nash...

The best defense is a made basket. If you've got size in the front court, the ability to reset your defense cannot be underestimated. With Nash, the Lakers have one of the great shot makers in the league (50-40-90) and backing him up with two 7-footers. Given the contract situation the Lakers are in, Laker fans could not ask for anything better than this. Props to Jim Buss — JuanGone has it right: "his record of being strongly behind the Bynum draft, Gasol trade, CP3 trade and now Nash, gives him a semi-permanent pass in my book." I don't like Mike Brown's offensive schemes either, but with Nash and Bryant and Gasol on the floor, their collective basketball IQs should make up for any coaching deficiencies.

I'm really, really happy. Can you tell?
   238. Paul D(uda) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4173715)
The Raptors have agreed to send a first-round pick to the Rockets for Kyle Lowry, according to ESPN.com's Chris Broussard
   239. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4173720)
.
   240. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4173726)
by the way, why did morey nix lee's QO (3.2m)?
   241. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4173738)
I mean, what are the Lakers options?


They didn't have many. This obviously does not make them title favorites and it may not work out that well, but it was still the right move IMO, and I think most people feel that way.

Some numbers on Nash from 2012:

ws/48: .144 (Paul .278, Westbrook .163, Williams .099)
OWS: 5.2 DWS: 0.6
TS: 62.5
EFG: 58.1
AST%: 53.1 lead league
3P: 39.0 (career 42)
FT%: 89.4
PER: 20.3
   242. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4173742)
Dragic and Lowry both gone--will be interested to see what Morey does next.
   243. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4173763)
Dragic and Lowry both gone--will be interested to see what Morey does next.
He starts over. That's why the Lowry trade was a good deal for Houston — they need the picks and to shed salary. They look like they're in full tear-down right now.What else can he do? Getting Howard was never realistic, and no other established stars are looking at them thinking they'll be contenders. They have no superstar of their own to build around.

The David Stern veto did a number on the Lakers, and we talked a lot about that. We didn't spend a lot of time talking about Houston's situation, but Stern boned them over pretty spectacularly, too. Instead of drafting a bunch of young guys to orbit around Gasol, he's drafted a bunch of young guys who're going to orbit around nothing.
   244. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 03:23 PM (#4173781)
Via Twitter:
Paul Coro: Nash on luring free agent Grant Hill to L.A.: "I'll do anything I can, if the Lakers are open to that, to make it a reality."

Via Yahoo Sports:
"I think with Nash in the house now, they wouldn’t need an assurance up front," one league executive tied closely to the Howard trade talks told Yahoo! Sports. "They know that Dwight can be impressionable and craves Hollywood. I think they would take that chance."

...

The Brooklyn Nets are still relentlessly working on a deal to secure Howard, and perhaps Howard wants to wait until they’ve exhausted every scenario with the Magic. Nevertheless, Orlando’s target for a Howard deal is still Bynum, still the Lakers.
   245. Jimmy P Posted: July 05, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4173782)
The David Stern veto did a number on the Lakers, and we talked a lot about that. We didn't spend a lot of time talking about Houston's situation, but Stern boned them over pretty spectacularly, too. Instead of drafting a bunch of young guys to orbit around Gasol, he's drafted a bunch of young guys who're going to orbit around nothing.

A few of us did. I may have called them the biggest loser out of the three teams. If I didn't then, I think it's pretty clear they are today.

At this point, what do you do? I think they still have to make the run at Howard. Either you keep him or trade him closer to the deadline. But, I can't imagine that they'll get a better way to get a star. Even if they're the worst team (and it's going to be hard to beat Charlotte) still only 1/4 for that top pick.
   246. Jimmy P Posted: July 05, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4173874)
Primer retweet:

In another unforeseen twist of this wild offseason, sources say Jason Kidd has decided to leave Mavs and join Knicks on a multiyear deal


Wow, the Mavs have had a horrible offseason.
   247. billyshears Posted: July 05, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4173884)
Am I wrong in thinking that Jason Kidd is just about done?
   248. JC in DC Posted: July 05, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4173898)
just about done


And thus an improvement over Baron Davis?
   249. smileyy Posted: July 05, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4173899)

Am I wrong in thinking that Jason Kidd is just about done?


I realize he's old and two years removed from his role on the Mavs championship team, but I suspect he could still play that role, perhaps to a lesser extend now. But I'd take him as a backup PG on a contender. Can't he still distribute the ball, be tall-ish for a PG, and hit open jumpers?
   250. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 05, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4173902)
Am I wrong in thinking that Jason Kidd is just about done?


Nope. His passing, shooting, and much of his defense is still there, but opposing defenses get to almost completely ignore him off the dribble these days.

In other news, Brandon Bass is signing a 3-year deal with the Celtics. Haven't seen any dollar figures, but he's allegedly gonna make Big Baby money.
   251. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: July 05, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4173906)
Really excited the Knicks were able to flex their large market muscle and acquire the final piece of the puzzle for their championship push.
   252. smileyy Posted: July 05, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4173910)
This article is better titled "J.A. Adande does not understand the 'Professional' in 'Professional Basketball Player' (or thinks a lot of his readers don't)":

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8131653/nba-kobe-bryant-steve-nash-rivals-no-more

Apparently Steve Nash is only supposed to play for teams that don't have players that he's ever played against in any meaningful way. I know...I shouldn't feed the media trolls by reading the articles, but...ugh.
   253. smileyy Posted: July 05, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4173914)
[250] IOW, if Kidd took a charge from Rondo, their offensive games would annihilate each other in a matter/antimatter reaction?
   254. Jimmy P Posted: July 05, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4173930)
Am I wrong in thinking that Jason Kidd is just about done?


I think he's all the way done. He can't drive, he shoots less than 40% on threes and about 3/4 of his shots are threes, and he's slow on defense. He can still pass, but he's just sort of a guy who stands at the top of the key and either shoots a three or hits a cutter right after he gets a pass.

Of course, saying that, he may fit in the iso-heavy Knicks offense.
   255. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4173937)
We didn't spend a lot of time talking about Houston's situation, but Stern boned them over pretty spectacularly, too.


Indeed. I did mention it 3 or 4 times here, but it should be noted,
   256. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4173955)
Really excited the Knicks were able to flex their large market muscle and acquire the final piece of the puzzle for their championship push.
So I assume the Knicks are going to let Jeremy Lin go to Houston instead of pay the price tag?
   257. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 05, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4174013)
their offensive games would annihilate each other in a matter/antimatter reaction?


Or, like magnets, they'd get stuck, which would be a little embarrassing for everyone.
   258. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2012 at 06:54 PM (#4174025)
Commish and Houston - yeah, I really felt for them
Kidd done - what's done mean? He's still useful, just not above average anymore. Don't think NYK is a great fit, though.
   259. Fourth True Outcome Posted: July 05, 2012 at 06:59 PM (#4174028)
The other thing I'm still wondering about Kidd is how much he has in the tank down the road. The reported terms on the Mavs deal with him were 3 years at 9 million per; I would be worried about the second and especially third years of that deal, even if you think he's likely to be worth the 9 million next year.
   260. Jimmy P Posted: July 05, 2012 at 07:05 PM (#4174036)
The other thing I'm still wondering about Kidd is how much he has in the tank down the road. The reported terms on the Mavs deal with him were 3 years at 9 million per; I would be worried about the second and especially third years of that deal, even if you think he's likely to be worth the 9 million next year.

Have to think at least the third year is not guaranteed. Maybe even the second
   261. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2012 at 07:12 PM (#4174040)
Commish and Houston - yeah, I really felt for them
Kidd done - what's done mean? He's still useful, just not above average anymore. Don't think NYK is a great fit, though.
   262. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 07:16 PM (#4174043)
Apparently Steve Nash is only supposed to play for teams that don't have players that he's ever played against in any meaningful way


Not sure why this bugs you. Nash himself said less than a week ago that he would have a tough time "putting on a Lakers uniform" and according to Nash, when Kupchak called Nash's agent, that was the first question Kupchak asked. You can say it was all BS on Nash's part if you want to (a lot of PHX fans apparently are doing just that and are mad at Nash because of it) but Adande didn't pull that angle out of nowhere. Also, as the article says, supposedly Kobe still resents not getting the MVP in 2006 and has talked a lot about "not liking" the Suns. The "old rivals joining forces for one last charge up the hill against the young guns" narrative is a cliche'd one, but it actually does fit here to an extent. But maybe I am missing your point.

Where I think Adande blows it is attributing Kobe's scoring binges against PHX to the Mamba's smoldering anger. Like most MSM guys, Adande is about narrative instead of analysis, and Kobe ate up the Suns mostly because they lacked a guy who could guard him (they often used Hill on him in single-coverage).
   263. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4174044)
ESPN says that Dallas is looking at Sessions now.
   264. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4174056)
They'd have to, wouldn't they?
   265. Fourth True Outcome Posted: July 05, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4174064)
Primer Retweet: @WojYahooNBA
Offer sheet for Lin will pay him $5M in year one, $5.2M in year two and $9.3M in years three and again in team option year four, source says.


Edit: Offer from the Rockets, of course.
   266. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:05 PM (#4174068)
Perhaps the Mavericks might want to get in on that. They were the first people to give Lin the time of day, after all.
   267. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4174084)
Rumor! Jeremy Evans stays w Utah: 3/5.5m
Sure, the fg% is unsustainable, but that's a steal
   268. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4174089)
What would it take from the Suns for New Orleans to let Gordon walk? A S&T can be done as long as Gordon doesn't sign Phoenix's offer sheet, which can't happen until the 11th anyway.

I'm reading variations of Gortat or R. Lopez + Kendall Marshall + pick(s).
   269. Conor Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4174096)
The other thing I'm still wondering about Kidd is how much he has in the tank down the road. The reported terms on the Mavs deal with him were 3 years at 9 million per; I would be worried about the second and especially third years of that deal, even if you think he's likely to be worth the 9 million next year.


I believe it's 9 million total. Knicks could only sign Kidd fr the mini mid level, and I haven't heard anything about it being a sign and trade.
   270. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2012 at 08:46 PM (#4174098)
Yup, ~3 per
   271. Booey Posted: July 05, 2012 at 09:55 PM (#4174141)
Rumor! Jeremy Evans stays w Utah: 3/5.5m
Sure, the fg% is unsustainable, but that's a steal


Just stacking the deck to make a run at Dwight Howard and Chris Paul...
   272. Joel W Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:25 PM (#4174173)
Reports of Jeff Green getting 4/40. I'll believe it when I see it, but that would be truly insane from Danny. Like unfathomably crazyballs.
   273. PJ Martinez Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4174184)
#272: That would be crazy, but the actual report is this: "One source with knowledge of the talks says it may be in the four years, $40 million neighborhood, but it is not done."

Which for all we know means the reporter asked Green's agent if his client would get Gerald Wallace money, and the agent said, "It may be in that neighborhood."

Here's hoping the actual contract is far more sane.
   274. Joel W Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4174189)
Like one year for five mil. sane? Who is paying Jeff Green anything right now? He's not that good and he has a non-functioning heart.
   275. tshipman Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:41 PM (#4174192)
Reports of Jeff Green getting 4/40. I'll believe it when I see it, but that would be truly insane from Danny. Like unfathomably crazyballs.


Man, lots of terrible deals being handed out. I mean, the owners must be losing money like crazy in this insane, free-wheeling salary environment.
   276. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4174196)
Rumor!
Brandon Roy to MIN, likely a 2yr deal
EDIT: 2/10? Amnesty Darko?

The bad deals go early, right? Does look like there may be more tax payers than I expected in a few years.
   277. robinred Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:47 PM (#4174201)
I think Ainge is a smart GM, but I have never quite gotten what he sees in Jeff Green.
   278. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:48 PM (#4174203)
Brandon Roy to the T-Wolves. Um, OK.
   279. PJ Martinez Posted: July 05, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4174214)
Like one year for five mil. sane? Who is paying Jeff Green anything right now? He's not that good and he has a non-functioning heart.

The heart is fine now, isn't it? That said, I'm with robin: Ainge's Green fascination is odd, and unsupported by what the numbers and my own eyes tell me.

Still, one source said the contract "may be in the neighborhood" of 4/40. So until we get more than that, I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic that the deal is, in fact, several blocks away from that neighborhood (or that Green's camp holds out for that much and ends up going elsewhere).

Isn't Bass getting 3/20 or something? He's an imperfect player himself, plus he's older and went lower in the draft. But he's also better, so.

Edit: And now Sam Amick, who put the 4/40 report out there, tweets thusly: "Re: the Jeff Green situation and Boston, bear in mind that some neighborhoods tend to be vast. I'm curious to see a final number myself."
   280. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 06, 2012 at 12:27 AM (#4174236)
rumors!
batum to sign offer sheet w MIN 4/45m, with 5m in bonuses
speights re-ups w/ MEM 2/7-8, yr 2 a tm-opt
ilyasova rejects 5/40m from mil
   281. smileyy Posted: July 06, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4174263)
Nash himself said less than a week ago that he would have a tough time "putting on a Lakers uniform"


Ok, that part makes the story a bit less manufactured. OTOH, Nash's quote reads to me like the baseball player who says "You know, I've made enough money...I could just retire and hunt all day." Until the end of the season rolls around and he actually faces the possibility of not doing the thing he's loved for 25 years.

I can see Nash's opinion changing from the abstract question of "Would you want to play for the Lakers?" to "There's an offer on the table for you. What do you think?"

Do people really think Nash and Kobe will have problems co-existing? Nash, despite having the ball in his hands a lot, isn't high usage. I'm not sure there are players who can't get better by playing with a Nash or a (younger) Kidd, or a LeBron or a Magic. They make even great players better. If Nash is healthy, I like that Lakers team again.
   282. robinred Posted: July 06, 2012 at 05:02 AM (#4174282)
Steve Nash has a series of short "film parodies" up on you tube. Here is one with him and Jared Dudley.

This one and two others were linked at ESPNLA today. They are not really very funny IMO, but there is something sort of cool about an NBA star acting this, well, dorky.

This was made a few weeks ago, it seems, but is now sort of prescient: it has Nash as Darth Vader--and has a joke about the "point guard defecting to the Dark Side."
   283. robinred Posted: July 06, 2012 at 05:31 AM (#4174285)
Do people really think Nash and Kobe will have problems co-existing?


Yes. Like I have said, there is an internet cottage industry in which guys present Kobe's personality as a huge problem with the Lakers. Tom Ziller, Matt Moore, Kelly Dwyer, and of course Abbott, Mason, and sometimes Hollinger, all do it a lot, and that is just the bigger names. Here is Steve McPherson at Hardwood Paroxysm today:

But that’s only if Bryant actually cedes control, and that’s far from a foregone conclusion. Michael Jordan adapted his game as he aged, but that mostly involved taking it into the post more and was also accomplished under the tutelage of Jackson, perhaps the only coach who could genuinely get through to him. Bryant doesn’t have to learn how to play differently; he has to learn how to not play so much, and he has to learn it under Mike Brown—a great defensive coach, but uninspired offensively—and from Nash, a player with whom he’s had a heated rivalry for years. No one should ever question Bryant’s capability as a player, but this isn’t just a matter of having the tools. This is about emotional capability.

Here’s the thing: picture this Lakers team without Bryant and instead with a decent to very good shooting guard—say Evan Turner to Eric Gordon. By adding Nash and pairing him with Gasol and Bynum or Howard, you’ve instantly made this team a major threat in the Western Conference, just by virtue of the two-man game you can now run. On paper, as the player he is now, Bryant only mucks up this scenario.


I happened to read this one because it was linked at a Lakers blog; normally I avoid HP. McPherson's post prior to this one was a perfect example of what Maxwn, Hombre, and I were discussing yesterday. Here he is talking about how conflicted he is about St. Nash joining Satan Bryant on the Evil Lakers to the benefit of their spoiled fans:

And then Steve Nash got traded to the Los Angeles Lakers and I remembered just how visceral all this can be...Just the thought of Nash in a Laker jersey makes me cringe because I’ve always thought of him as one of the good guys and I’ve always thought of the Lakers as bad guys. Right now, I’m wishing horrible things upon him and the Lakers next season. Not injury or anything, but just that the whole thing won’t work like every Lakers fan thinks it will because, dammit, they shouldn’t get to have everything work so well all the time.


In fairness, McPherson owns his bias to an extent and does make some effort to have some balance, but it is a great example of the kind of stuff I talk about WRT the analysis/emotion overlap that some Gen Y internet hoopsgeeks have about Bryant. Here is the link:

http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/

But, more serious analysts, like Lowe, have also talked about the issue over the last day or so. Bryant's USG probably needs to drop to about 30-31 next year; my guess is that, as I said when Sessions was acquired, Bryant will do that for a guy, like Nash, whom he respects as a fellow star. I can see Bryant saying something like, "Steve likes passing the ball; I like shooting the ball. Ain't gonna be any problems" when he gets tired of questions about it and I expect he thinks that Nash will get him (and the big guys) more easy looks so that he can keep scoring a lot without the ball in his hands as much. We will see.

Lowe hit on a key thing today, though: the issue with the Lakers, along with the obvious age and depth stuff, will probably be defense, not offense--assuming they do not get Howard.
   284. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 06, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4174412)
rumor! nick young will sign w/ PHI
   285. Jimmy P Posted: July 06, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4174434)
Wojnarski is reporting that the 76ers are going to amnesty Elton Brand.
   286. The District Attorney Posted: July 06, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4174449)
picture this Lakers team without Bryant and instead with a decent to very good shooting guard—say Evan Turner to Eric Gordon. By adding Nash and pairing him with Gasol and Bynum or Howard, you’ve instantly made this team a major threat in the Western Conference, just by virtue of the two-man game you can now run. On paper, as the player he is now, Bryant only mucks up this scenario.
Nash/Evan Turner/Gasol/Bynum would be better than Nash/Kobe/Gasol/Bynum.

Really.

Yikes.
   287. Jimmy P Posted: July 06, 2012 at 11:31 AM (#4174459)
Nash/Evan Turner/Gasol/Bynum would be better than Nash/Kobe/Gasol/Bynum.


I can't believe this.
   288. Joel W Posted: July 06, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4174467)
Yeah this is really dumb. People let their ideas of synergy get in the way of talent. Kobe might not be the most synergistic player with Nash, but he's really damn good, that's most of what matters. Wade and Lebron don't really have good synergy either, and, you know. At worst, the Lakers now just have a collection of talented players who don't work together that well, which is still very good.
   289. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 06, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4174470)
287: Don't need to. (I don't either, of course.)

CHA's got to be champing at the bit to land Brand. (Unless they wanna uber-tank again.)
   290. Joel W Posted: July 06, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4174478)
Also, Steve Nash ran the best offenses in basketball for a decade straight. Joe Johnson gets killed as Iso-Joe, but with Nash he drained threes (48%! in his last year with Phoenix). I can't stand Kobe, and share every one of those biases that the HP guys have, but Kobe is no idiot. Also, how many players can Kobe glare at and be told that he has fewer MVPs? Honestly that offense is going to run smooth as hell with Nash on the floor, and it kills me.
   291. Jimmy P Posted: July 06, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4174489)
CHA's got to be champing at the bit to land Brand. (Unless they wanna uber-tank again.)


I'm not sure Rich Cho is that foolish. I think he'll tank.

The team I think that's going to be all in and put in a huge bid (there's only one year left on Brand's deal) is Houston. What have they got to lose at this point?
   292. Joel W Posted: July 06, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4174507)
It sounds like there's not as much incentive to tank next year, as there's no Davis on the board. Might as well win 20 rather than 10.
   293. Mark S. is bored Posted: July 06, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4174531)
Bradford Doolittle analyzes Nash to LA for ESPN:

Before Wednesday's transactions, NBAPET had the Lakers pegged as about a 46-win team, or 45.7 to be exact. That assumed the questionable returns of free agents like Ramon Sessions, Matt Barnes and Jordan Hill. Enter Nash. Making that one little adjustment -- changing 'PHX' to 'LAL' -- boosted the Lakers' win forecast to an even 54 victories. It was one move that, on paper, adds 8.3 potential wins to L.A.'s bottom line.
   294. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: July 06, 2012 at 12:05 PM (#4174542)
Anyone with thoughts on MIN's signing of Roy and pursuit of Batum?
   295. Fourth True Outcome Posted: July 06, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4174568)
Is there any reason to be mid- to long-term optimistic about Brandon Roy? I love his game, and I was crushed when he had to retire, but I'm viewing his comeback really pessimistically. I mean, the guy has no cartilage in his knees. He didn't do a good job of coming to terms with that before he retired, and I haven't really seen anything suggesting he's going to try to be more of a spot-up shooter and less of a slasher to accomodate the reality of his knees. I really hope I'm wrong, but I think BRoy's knees are just going to make real success impossible. He'll have flashes, I'm sure, but I don't see him being the useful piece Minn wants him to be.
   296. The District Attorney Posted: July 06, 2012 at 12:23 PM (#4174573)
Lou Williams @TeamLou23

Philly, I appreciate you all. Unfortunately I will not be coming back, as an organization they decided to move in a different direction.
   297. steagles Posted: July 06, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4174581)
rumor! nick young will sign w/ PHI

Wojnarski is reporting that the 76ers are going to amnesty Elton Brand.

i'm not optimistic.
   298. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 06, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4174613)
FTO/Roy: I'm pessimistic for the same reasons as you, but he's had time to rest his knees a bit and potentially come to better terms with what he can and cannot now do.

Joel: That was my thinking (in part). Additionally, they may simply not want to be that, that awful - unless they figure there's no fanbase left to lose.

Who's under the cap besides POR, DAL, and HOU?
   299. Booey Posted: July 06, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4174623)
Anyone with thoughts on MIN's signing of Roy and pursuit of Batum?


I think it's about the best a team like Minnesota could realistically hope for.

For their sake, I'm hoping Roy has a little bit left in the tank and that he'll be wearing a Wolves jersey more often than a suit.
   300. andrewberg Posted: July 06, 2012 at 01:02 PM (#4174632)
Booey is right in two ways. Minnesota is not at a point where marquee free agents are goinig to flock to sign with them, so you have to take what you can get. Also, they're pursuing guys who fit specific needs for the team- Batum is a spot up shooter who would fit exceptionally well with Rubio (from what I have read, he is well aware of this possibility and it has been a big part of his interest in Minnesota). Roy is a playmaker for the second unit, which really struggled to produce consistently last year. Also, if Roy and Budinger combine to play 48 minutes per night, those are minutes that are not going to Wayne Ellington, Wes Johnson, Beasley, or one of the numerous scrubs who played big minutes last year.

On the other hand, I was extremely pessimistic about Roy before the Wolves signed him, and I still think his knees are going to prevent him from contributing much. I also have seen no reason to believe that Batum will get out of Portland. They weren't even interested in trading him for Derrick Williams. It is an improvement, but not a huge one.
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