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Monday, July 02, 2012

OT: NBA basketball July Thread 2012

I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: Jim Furtado trolling his own site when he’s bored.

Tripon Posted: July 02, 2012 at 04:21 PM | 2487 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball

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   601. Squash Posted: July 10, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4178676)
Not trying to be difficult, but...how? I would think having the Joe Johnson, Deron Williams and Gerald Wallace contracts along with applicable cap holds makes signing Howard impossible. And since NJ is the only team Howard has said/indicated he would extend with/wants to go, doesn't it take some of the risk out of the move to know that he can't go there? I guess what I'm saying is that I get your point, generally, but I'm not sure it applies to the DH12 risk calculus because of NJ's cap situation and Howard's apparent demands/interests.

No, actually it seems virtually impossible considering the moves they've made this summer. None of the big money guys are eligible for amnesty, and just between Wallace, Williams and Johnson they're almost at the cap (about $50mil between the 3 of them). It seems highly unlikely anyone would trade for either Johnson or Wallace - and definitely not just for cap space and they're not going to give Williams away. So, no, there's practically zero chance they'll have any chance of having any cap space next year.

Yes, this is the big deal. And I'm surprised more people aren't calling this bluff. Although to be fair, I suppose there could be concern that he whines, signs his max contract, but keeps acting like he did this last year by telling you that you need to then trade him for what is presumably the corpse of Wallace and/or Joe Johnson and subverting the team.


I'm not a cap expert by any means, but like I said the point isn't really the Nets. Howard may want to go to the Nets now, but even if he can't make his way to them he will find some other team he'd rather play for than Orlando next summer. That's why Orlando isn't calling his bluff and no other non-Nets/non-Lakers/etc. team wants to trade anything for him (with the possible exception of Houston), because the financial carrot they can swing in front of him isn't that great. He'll walk. Bird rights aren't really that strong. The real benefit they offer is the extra guaranteed year, which is great and all, but not that huge of an incentive for someone like Howard or any other superstar. That's why all these guys get traded and no one calls their bluff - because it's not really a bluff. Some team the player prefers more than their current team is very likely to be available and the team's going to be able to offer essentially the same amount of money per year, with the added incentive of choice/championship/marketing/etc.
   602. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 10, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4178685)
I haven't seen a single other writer/reporter mention the Hornets talking about a S&T for Gordon. I think I still would be surprised if the Hornets let him go.
   603. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 10, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4178692)
I'm not a cap expert by any means, but like I said the point isn't really the Nets.

None of us are disagreeing with your larger point. We all just pointed out the part that was factually incorrect. And yes, I fully expect him to have a new list of 1 once the Nets deal disappears.
   604. JJ1986 Posted: July 10, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4178711)
And yes, I fully expect him to have a new list of 1 once the Nets deal disappears.


I think Atlanta should have a real advantage there. He's going to want to sign with a team in a good position, presumably one with cap space and possibly one without an already established star. It will be much more advantageous to go to an Eastern team where you're pretty much top 4 quality immediately, then to a Western team and have to fight for a playoff spot every year. Add in that he's from there, and that it's a city he presumably wouldn't hate living in. I think only the Lakers or Dallas (if they can add Paul and Howard) offer decent-looking alternatives.
   605. Jimmy P Posted: July 10, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4178742)
It will be much more advantageous to go to an Eastern team where you're pretty much top 4 quality immediately, then to a Western team and have to fight for a playoff spot every year.

Are we so sure on this? There's not that much of a difference anymore.

I think only the Lakers or Dallas (if they can add Paul and Howard) offer decent-looking alternatives.

For some reason, Dwight is against playing for established owners with championships.
   606. JJ1986 Posted: July 10, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4178758)
Also, does Brook Lopez want to go to Orlando so badly that he's just sitting around waiting to see what goes down? He is perfectly free to negotiate with Portland or Dallas or Houston or any other team.
   607. andrewberg Posted: July 10, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4178781)
If Dallas went into next season with Dirk, Howard, and whatever else they could assemble (something like Marion, Sessions, Beaubois, Mahinmi, Carter...), where does that slot them in the west? Seemingly behind OKC and LAL. Ahead of or behind SA and LAC?
   608. andrewberg Posted: July 10, 2012 at 03:52 PM (#4178817)
Wolves agree to sign Shved with more of that nonexistent cap space. Sounds like a nice prospect and backup G who can stretch the floor a bit and get his own shot. Again, I will take anything over what we had at the 2.
   609. Jimmy P Posted: July 10, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4178839)
Also, does Brook Lopez want to go to Orlando so badly that he's just sitting around waiting to see what goes down? He is perfectly free to negotiate with Portland or Dallas or Houston or any other team.

I think Orlando's the only one interested in paying him big money. Everyone else is probably scared away by the injuries
   610. Spivey Posted: July 10, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4178858)

Are we so sure on this? There's not that much of a difference anymore.


I wouldn't go that far, especially if Howard isn't in the East. In my opinion, Memphis was better than any team Miami played in the finals before the playoffs, and they didn't even win their first round series. The West is pretty brutal. Boston is not getting better and may get weaker, and Chicago is in a weird spot right now.
   611. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: July 10, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4178873)
I wouldn't go that far, especially if Howard isn't in the East. In my opinion, Memphis was better than any team Miami played in the finals before the playoffs, and they didn't even win their first round series. The West is pretty brutal. Boston is not getting better and may get weaker, and Chicago is in a weird spot right now.

FWIW, SRS Top 10 from last season:

1. CHI 7.43
2. SAS 7.28
3. OKC 6.44
4. MIA 5.72
5. PHI 3.59
6. DEN 3.16
7. LAC 2.82
8. ATL 2.67
9. IND 2.60
10. MEM 2.43
(11. NYK 2.39)
   612. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: July 10, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4178886)
#5 PHI - I love Philly but they were not the 5th best team last year by any stretch of the imagination. That type of stat was built on them having a hot start and blowing teams out early in the season. Seems like they were one of the few teams that was prepared to play when the season began, while others were out of shape during the lockout.

While that's admirable, it doesn't really go that far in what really counts - the NBA playoffs.
   613. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 10, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4178890)
Seems like they were one of the few teams that was prepared to play when the season began, while others were out of shape during the lockout.

And, in this way, the total opposite of the Heat's ECF opponent, who appeared to use much of the season as one long warmup. Of course, the Heat would have played Chicago in the ECF if Rose had been ambulatory. Who would OKC's toughest opponent have been if instead of Rose, Duncan or Parker blew out a knee?

Anyone know if someone has studied the correlation between SRS and success in the playoffs, whether it's better than record alone? Or what a significant difference constitutes (e.g. is 0.5 difference in SRS not really meaningful?)
   614. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 10, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4178909)
rumors!
Rashard Lewis to MIA for the vet min (no surprise)
Lou Williams to ATL on a multi-year deal. That's a surprise - and suggests (but not mandates) that ATL is not pursuing Dwight (in line w/ that - they also signed their 1st rounder today).
Unless ORL likes Teague. :)
   615. Raskolnikov Posted: July 10, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4178945)
Let's say Atlanta offers Josh Smith. Any reason why this wouldn't help both ATL and ORL?
   616. Jimmy P Posted: July 10, 2012 at 06:23 PM (#4178956)
Let's say Atlanta offers Josh Smith. Any reason why this wouldn't help both ATL and ORL?


Josh Smith and Howard are friends. If Atlanta's offering anything, it's Horford.
   617. rr Posted: July 10, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4178966)
HOOPSWORLD has learned that there have been preliminary discussions between the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets that would involve sending Andrew Bynum to the Rockets, Howard to the Lakers and a number of first-round picks, prospects and significant cap relief to the Magic.


--

This is Eric Pincus; may or may not have legs. Bynum has supposedly said he would sign an extension in Houston.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/can-lakers-rockets-magic-make-a-deal

Not that anyone was concerned, but Ebanks is going to be on the Lakers again next year.
   618. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 10, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4178972)
617 - I never spelled it out, but that is the proposition I alluded to up thread. Makes more sense than the BRK idea.

Lou may be for the MLE - that's a good signing.
   619. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 10, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4178983)
Dorell Wright reportedly dealt to PHI
   620. andrewberg Posted: July 10, 2012 at 06:55 PM (#4178985)
PHI : SFs :: HOU : PFs :: MIN : PGs
   621. JuanGone..except1game Posted: July 10, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4178990)
Not that anyone was concerned, but Ebanks is going to be on the Lakers again next year.


Seriously, I'm going to start a Free Ebanks campaign if Brown doesn't use him next year, if only to have at least one player running on the wing. You can't convince me that he can't be Ariza if he gets some burn.

HOOPSWORLD has learned that there have been preliminary discussions between the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets that would involve sending Andrew Bynum to the Rockets, Howard to the Lakers and a number of first-round picks, prospects and significant cap relief to the Magic.


Stern is readying his Lakers-emblemend Mjolnir as we speak.
   622. Jimmy P Posted: July 10, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4179014)
Stein just tweeted that in addition to the three way trade, Orlando and Houston are talking about doing a trade between the two of them if the Lakers step out.
   623. Tripon Posted: July 10, 2012 at 07:52 PM (#4179044)
HOW MANY BASKETBALL REASONS DOES STERN NEED THIS TIME?
   624. Raskolnikov Posted: July 10, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4179138)
Why don't they just change the name of the Orlando Magic to the Washington Generals?
   625. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 10, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4179151)
Because they play in Orlando, not Washington. Duh.
   626. rr Posted: July 10, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4179183)
Bynum isn't a franchise-changer, but he would be a pretty good get for Morey, particularly if he would sign on for a few years. I would like him better for Houston if Lowry were still there.
   627. Squash Posted: July 10, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4179245)
HOOPSWORLD has learned that there have been preliminary discussions between the Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets that would involve sending Andrew Bynum to the Rockets, Howard to the Lakers and a number of first-round picks, prospects and significant cap relief to the Magic.

One wonders what Houston would be giving up. How valuable is cap space really for a team like Orlando after all? They have all the makings of a retread franchise except when they get a superstar in the draft (first Shaq, now Howard). I guess they have the Florida taxes thing going for them but it seems hard to expect any premier free agent, all of whom have options, to want to sign with them. That's true of a lot of teams in the league though.
   628. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 10, 2012 at 09:33 PM (#4179347)
Lou Williams to ATL on a multi-year deal.


I just assumed this was a back fill to keep them up to par on their Williamses.
   629. kpelton Posted: July 10, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4179362)
I guess they have the Florida taxes thing going for them but it seems hard to expect any premier free agent, all of whom have options, to want to sign with them.

Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill.
   630. GregD Posted: July 10, 2012 at 10:06 PM (#4179492)
Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill.
And Jerry Krause's blubber quivers
   631. steagles Posted: July 10, 2012 at 10:12 PM (#4179514)
PHI : SFs :: HOU : PFs :: MIN : PGs
NJ : williamses :: IND : honkeys :: POR : invalids


i don't think the sixers have an issue right now w/r/t depth. sure, they've brought in young and wright and harkless, but they've also lost williams and meeks, so there's minutes available, and iguodala could still be traded at any moment.


the biggest issue for the sixers right now, as i see it, is that there really isn't a single PG on the roster right now. holiday, turner, and iguodala can all play with the ball in their hands, but none of them are really ideal facilitators, and if all 3 are in the starting lineup (which appears to be the likely scenario right now), you're left with nick young as the only guard coming off the bench.


right now the sixers depth chart looks something like this:
bigs: hawes (24), young (24), allen (23), vucevic (22), moultrie (22)
wings: iguodala (29), turner (24), young (27), wright (27), harkless (19)
guards: holiday (22)

i think they still have ~5 million in cap space to make another move, but where they are right now is not exactly a terrible place to be. iguodala, wright and nick young are likely to be free agents at the end of the year, and jrue holiday will be an RFA, but everyone else is locked in (fairly cheaply) past 2013.

i still think this is a pretty mediocre team, but if the right players make a noticeable improvement, they should have a lot of options at the trade deadline and into the next offseason. their cap is very clean, and as noted above, this is a very young roster. i'm actually surprisingly optimistic about what's gone on this offseason. there are a few things i'd quibble with (most notably the terms of that trade with miami, which essentially mean that the sixers can't trade their first round draft pick in any of the next 4 years), but so far, they've been very responsible in not completely ####### up the near term future of the franchise.
   632. PJ Martinez Posted: July 10, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4179713)
I haven't seen a single other writer/reporter mention the Hornets talking about a S&T for Gordon. I think I still would be surprised if the Hornets let him go.

Yep:

@RicBucher Source: Hornets not scared off by Gordon's comments, will match Suns' 4-year, $58million offer and plan to keep him. No S&T.
   633. tshipman Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:10 AM (#4179809)
Gosh, the max is only 14.5 million?

That's ... a lot smaller than I thought. I don't like the Gordon deal, but I guess it's not terribad if he's not hurt.
   634. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:27 AM (#4179813)
rumor!
Bayless (who I like a lot, relative to rep) to MEM
   635. PJ Martinez Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:46 AM (#4179820)
Gosh, the max is only 14.5 million?

Depends on a player's service time, doesn't it? Hence, Gordon gets 14.5m/yr, while Deron Williams gets about 20m/per.
   636. Tripon Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:46 AM (#4179821)
I thought the first extension also depends on draft placement. Gordon was picked 7th.
   637. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4179822)
Apparently Brook Lopez is getting a max deal. Yeah.
   638. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:53 AM (#4179824)
Phoenix's Plan B for a shooting guard is...?
   639. Tripon Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4179828)
I rather the league gets rid of restricted free agency. Just seems like a tease most of the time.
   640. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:07 AM (#4179845)
638- Orange juice mayonnaise.
   641. Squash Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:34 AM (#4179849)
Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill.

True. That was a long time ago, but lightning could strike twice. Interestingly that was supposed to be a SuperFriends team before there were such thing. The Rockets were supposed to be but they were all near the end - Hill and McGrady were theoretically in their prime. Hill as it turns out was not of course.
   642. rr Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:38 AM (#4179857)
Multiple league executives told ESPN.com on Sunday that there is growing reluctance among some teams to participate in the sort of multiteam deal that would get Howard to Brooklyn amid some league-wide dissatisfaction that the Lakers were able to reach terms on a sign-and-trade deal for Steve Nash last week.

Being the cog in creating another superteam in Brooklyn, with Williams and Johnson already in the mix in Brooklyn along with the returning Gerald Wallace, is not palatable to some teams concerned about competitive balance.

"You can talk about the new [luxury] tax all you want, but if the Lakers get Nash and the Nets get Howard, then what did the new CBA accomplish?" one GM said. "You have to realize part of long-term planning is making sure you don't help create teams you can't beat."


http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8147719/orlando-magic-exploring-other-dwight-howard-trades-source-says
   643. PJ Martinez Posted: July 11, 2012 at 08:43 AM (#4179891)
Phoenix's Plan B for a shooting guard is...?

O.J. Mayo, according to Marc Stein.
   644. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 09:16 AM (#4179914)
as 640 noted.

Rumor is the Bulls will match on Asik. If true, that's a bit surprising.
   645. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4179933)
   646. JJ1986 Posted: July 11, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4179938)
The Bayless contract is 2 years/$3m per. That seems like a nice steal.
   647. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4179975)
The idea of Brook Lopez getting a max deal is weird to me. I think that makes the Jeff Green contract look good by comparison. He's a young 7 footer who can score inside, get to the line, and hit his free throws. But he's not a very good rebounder and is not a difference maker on defense. I don't know if he's terrible on D, but if I give a max contract to a center I want someone who makes it impossible for my team to finish in the bottom 5 on defensive efficiency.

It's hard for me to see this guy as a top 3 player on a contending team. That kind of player profile can be useful as long as he's the 6th-7th best. But if Brook Lopez is the best player on your team there is no way you come close to the playoffs.

From NJ's perspective they apparently need him on a max deal to match up with Orlando in a Dwight trade, and if that doesn't happen then I guess you can hold your nose and sign him to the deal because of their cap situation - You can go over the cap and keep Lopez, or you are completely frozen out of having a center.

From Orlando's perspective, I'd rather let Dwight walk at the end of the year and end up with nothing than be stuck with Lopez, a max contract, and a losing team.
   648. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4179979)
646: Yr 2 is a p-opt accordingly, but - yeah.

That kind of player profile can be useful as long as he's the 6th-7th best.
647: I think that underrates Lopez. He's been fairly clearly an above average NBA player thus far in his career (career PER of 19.2, simple rating > 0 every year but his 5 game injury stint last season) and someone opposing teams should adjust to. He can likely be a better rebounder than he's been, given the discretionary nature of that work and the presence of Humphries.
As for your from ORL/BRK perspectives - well, I completely agree.
   649. tshipman Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4179985)
From Orlando's perspective, I'd rather let Dwight walk at the end of the year and end up with nothing than be stuck with Lopez, a max contract, and a losing team.


Yeah ... I mean, isn't almost any deal better than ending up with Brook Lopez on a max?

I know this makes me a homer, but I'd much rather have Bynum for one year and no guarantee of an extension than Lopez on a max deal.
   650. JJ1986 Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:44 AM (#4179994)
Lopez's already poor defensive rebounding rate in his first two years cratered in 2010-11, but it didn't clearly hurt the team's boarding. They had more defensive rebounds and allowed fewer offensive rebounds than in either of the two previous years. He might have simply been giving up any rebound that could go to anyone else. If he can get back near to 6 dREB per 36 minutes, he's on a level with Amare at least.
   651. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:48 AM (#4180000)
rumors!
Freeland signs w/ POR 3/9.
Stackhouse to sign with BRK for the min (1.3m)
There's a lot of talk about Korver possibly going to ATL for a trade exception.
   652. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:49 AM (#4180002)
Rumor is the Bulls will match on Asik. If true, that's a bit surprising.

The Bulls have been very, very quiet on this. They've said all along they would match any offer, but KC Johnson said they've admitted surprise at the actual offer he got. From KC's latest article:

The Bulls will have three days to match Asik's offer sheet once it is signed. Though management has agonized over the decision and hasn't shared its definitive plans, multiple league sources are under the impression they will match. Brewer said he heard Joakim Noah's lingering ankle issues are a factor in the decision.


Noah's ankle is keeping him out of the Olympics. But that's all we've heard about since the playoffs ended.
   653. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4180004)
There's a lot of talk about Korver possibly going to ATL for a trade exception.


Who is Korver and is this a good thing?
   654. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4180005)
I know this makes me a homer, but I'd much rather have Bynum for one year and no guarantee of an extension than Lopez on a max deal.

Doesn't make you a homer, makes you someone with a brain.
   655. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:52 AM (#4180006)
As for Howard, I think this Chad Ford tweet sums it up nicely:

chadfordinsider: If Magic want best player? Lakers best partner. Best package of players? Hawks. Want to blow it up? Rockets. None of the above? Nets


---

There's a lot of talk about Korver possibly going to ATL for a trade exception.

Hmmm. Nothing on the Chicago side I've seen, although they've talked about moving him (they've said they'll let him know what they're going to do with him by Sunday). Matching Asik but letting Korver go wouldn't make sense to me.
   656. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4180010)
It's worth noting that both Deron Williams and Blake Griffin have opt out in their deals, both after year 4 (per Marc Stein).
   657. JJ1986 Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4180011)
Who is Korver and is this a good thing?


Kyle Korver's a sharpshooter who does very little else. Kind of like Anthony Morrow and John Jenkins.
   658. Jimmy P Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:57 AM (#4180015)
Gosh, the max is only 14.5 million?


Coming off first contract and being offered by the non-Birds rights team holds the salary down. It's why the team that holds the restricted rights should NEVER offer the max. Always just match it. It may be a year shorter, but it'll save a ton of money.

One wonders what Houston would be giving up. How valuable is cap space really for a team like Orlando after all?

I'd guess Houston would be taking numerous bad contracts - Quentin Richardson, Jason Richardson, Duhon, Hedo. Probably 2-3 of those. In addition, they'd be giving up a few first rounders and probably one of their cheap wing players that is on a cheap contract.

Orlando's not just capped out, they're well into the tax territory and have been for years. At this point, the GM is probably telling the owner that winning's not happening, so just save money and move on.
   659. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4180022)
I think that underrates Lopez. He's been fairly clearly an above average NBA player thus far in his career (career PER of 19.2, simple rating > 0 every year but his 5 game injury stint last season) and someone opposing teams should adjust to. He can likely be a better rebounder than he's been, given the discretionary nature of that work and the presence of Humphries.


His low rebounding rates might not hurt the team given the discretionary considerations. But he's certainly not an asset to team rebounding. His defense is something that concerns me more, and that's something that PER doesn't really capture. A good defensive center can, all by himself, make the team defensive rating decent or even good all by himself. NJ's record clearly shows that having Brook Lopez does not give you a good or even passable team defense.
   660. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:11 AM (#4180034)
I don't disagree with any of that, AROM - I just don't think that's not enough to reduce him to the point where you're 6th/7th best line is true. Was that true for, say, Rik Smits?

Moses, I _loved_ that Ford tweet - succinctly encapsulates the Howard situation.

Korver: Notable for his resemblance to Ashton Kutcher, as well. If you want to think Howard might go to Atlanta, than think about Morrow, Korver, and Jenkins all being on the same roster - two of the top ten three point shooters in the league and the consensus top guy from distance in the draft.
   661. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4180035)
Orlando's not just capped out, they're well into the tax territory and have been for years. At this point, the GM is probably telling the owner that winning's not happening, so just save money and move on.


That makes sense. And it seems trading him to Houston would work out best. Focus on getting rid of as many bad contracts as possible along with Dwight. Maybe trade him to the Bobcraps (do they have cap room?). Maybe trade him to Houston, get a 2014 or later pick back (preferably not lotto protected) and hope he doesn't stay there, so Houston ends up giving something good.

Seems like making Dwight happy with a Brooklyn trade requires taking back as many contracts as you give up, and the end result is a still expensive, non-contending team. At this point I'd think trading Howard to a team he doesn't want to play for would be a bonus, after all the crap he's put the team through.
   662. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4180037)
I don't disagree with any of that, AROM - I just don't think that's not enough to reduce him to the point where you're 6th/7th best line is true. Was that true for, say, Rik Smits?


I think Smits was significantly more valuable on defense. I'm not sure, I'm judging from the team record, but center is the position most important to team defense.
   663. Booey Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4180038)
Who is Korver and is this a good thing?


It's not a bad thing. He's a 3-pt specialist that would be a handy weapon off the bench for a lot of teams. He's probably too limited defensively to ever deserve big minutes, but I liked having him as part of the Jazz bench squad from 2008-2010.
   664. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4180043)
I think Smits was significantly more valuable on defense. I'm not sure, I'm judging from the team record, but center is the position most important to team defense.

I think he was better. I think his teams were quite a bit better. I think centers are the most position on the court, in terms of team defense.
I don't think Smits was a lot better on defense.
   665. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4180044)
Korver has gotten better at defense the last couple of years with the Bulls - I'm sure it helps the rest of the team is so good defensively. He's also a decent passer. He's a terrible ball handler. He's an asset to a team's offense that isn't a total liability on defense. I really do hope the Bulls keep him, I don't see a replacement on the roster or available that cheaper.
   666. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4180046)
Looking at the numbers for Smits, Pacers were a terrible defensive team from his rookie year up to the point where Larry Brown took over the coaching. They were average the year before they got Smits.

So you've got a point there. Smits was probably the 2nd-5th best player on those Pacer teams, depending on the year.
   667. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:24 AM (#4180048)
Here's a question I can't give the answer to, not having watched him play much:

Is Lopez a guy who can contribute to a good team defense, assuming he's got the right coach and the right teammates, like Smits?

Or is he a pure defensive liability, like David Lee or Amare Stoudamire?
   668. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4180051)
Another question on Lopez: Is there any reason I should want him on my team any more than Spencer Hawes?

Size, rebounding, defense - hard to see a difference. Lopez can score better inside, and gets to the free throw line. Hawes probably a better jump shooter. Lopez is better, but I don't think the difference is anywhere near the contracts they are going to get.
   669. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4180060)
So you've got a point there. Smits was probably the 2nd-5th best player on those Pacer teams, depending on the year.


He was also at his best when he was playing with Dale and Anthony Davis, who were strong defensive 4's. You're right that Lopez isn't the total package, and that you have to adjust when you build around a guy like that, but I don't think you are doomed, especially given his offensive strengths.
   670. Raskolnikov Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4180062)
I'd rather have Hawes than Lopez. I think Hawes does a lot more things well.

Lopez isn't bad - he's a skilled 7-footer with a legit post game - that already makes him above average in this league. The problem is that Lopez's skill set is hard to work with. As noted, he's a terrible rebounder and he's slow. He's a black hole on offense, and he demands the ball all the time. I actually think he's alright on D - can't keep up with the fast moving 5's, but he'll give you length and size, and he'll block shots.

Should be the 3rd best player on a playoff team, and the 4th best player on a championship contender.

Smits was awesome. Highly underrated offensive presence; he was pretty much unguardable in the post 1-on-1, but that was pretty much his only great attribute.
   671. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4180063)
NBA salaries are like real estate, right? Location, location, location.
(Having said that, it's been suggested that Charlotte had considered offering the max to Lopez, but I'm skeptical.)

Lopez has the added advantage of having demonstrated from day one something like his current level of ability, Hawes wasn't any good his first four seasons (had negative win shares on offense!). I think Lopez's true talent is quite a bit better.

Conversely, Lopez's health questions are more recent (he did play every game his first three seasons, but only five last season).

I don't watch the Nets much either, but my reading and viewing suggests that you could incorporate him into a system and yield solid results (particularly if you've got the right guy to match him with).
   672. jmurph Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4180064)
I hope, for Brooklyn's sake, that they're also exploring other sign and trade deals for Lopez. It would seem weird to me to lock themselves into an either Howard or Lopez scenario.
   673. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4180068)
Is Lopez a guy who can contribute to a good team defense, assuming he's got the right coach and the right teammates, like Smits?


A lot of that is coaching, too. Lee and Stoudemire never had particularly good defensive coaches, and have played most of their careers under strictly offensive-minded coaches. Another advantage Lopez has over those guys is size. Being undersized puts you at a huge disadvantage, and both of those guys are too small and not fast enough to get an advantage at the 5. Lopez is very big, so even when he struggles, it is a different sort of struggle, which makes me think he has more room for improvement.

The Nets have been so bad while he has been there that the team in general seems to often disregard defense (that's not just the Nets, the worst defensive teams are usually the ones who have started to struggle and given up). It might take a while for the culture to change, but I don't think what we have seen out of him is representative of his potential.

Lopez vs. Hawes- Lopez getting to the line makes a huge difference. If the improvement Hawes made last year sticks, they are probably closer than their salaries indicate. Even with Lopez's injury, he has a much more consistent track record and a higher ceiling. He's not "worth" the max, but value is so dependent on circumstance, and those two guys are in very different circumstances on their teams and in their careers.

Edit- Der K said a lot of that more succinctly. Beverage.
   674. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4180069)
Smits was awesome. Highly underrated offensive presence; he was pretty much unguardable in the post 1-on-1, but that was pretty much his only great attribute.


Not a bad skill to pair with the best spot-up shooter of his generation.
   675. Raskolnikov Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4180085)

Not a bad skill to pair with the best spot-up shooter of his generation.


Yeah, too bad, Smits was not a great passer, and his offensive moves took forever. He had that post move towards the baseline ending with a short-to-medium range jumper right over the defender - I swear he hit that > 75% of the time. If Smits could pass and if he were tougher (always got pushed around a bit), he would have been a 25 ppg player.
   676. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:09 PM (#4180096)
A lot of that is coaching, too. Lee and Stoudemire never had particularly good defensive coaches, and have played most of their careers under strictly offensive-minded coaches. Another advantage Lopez has over those guys is size. Being undersized puts you at a huge disadvantage, and both of those guys are too small and not fast enough to get an advantage at the 5. Lopez is very big, so even when he struggles, it is a different sort of struggle, which makes me think he has more room for improvement.

As a Knicks fan, I’ve watched a lot of both guys and have to disagree with this. While both were/are undersized at the 5 and that is the source of some of their troubles, I felt that as much of a hustler/grinder Lee was on the boards and as hard as he worked to go from a garbage baskets guy to legitimate 2nd/3rd option…he was very lazy about defense and just never committed to doing anything on that end. I suppose some of that can be blamed on coaching not holding him accountable, but I think that’s more his fault. Stoudemire usually gives a lot of effort…he’s just quite simply…stupid, when it comes to defense. He does not understand the most basic of defensive concepts and thus constantly leaves the team in bad position. It was painful watching Chandler and Shumpert try to explain to him where he should have been on the various plays he blew time and time again. No idea about Lopez though.
   677. steagles Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:12 PM (#4180100)
Another question on Lopez: Is there any reason I should want him on my team any more than Spencer Hawes?

Size, rebounding, defense - hard to see a difference. Lopez can score better inside, and gets to the free throw line. Hawes probably a better jump shooter. Lopez is better, but I don't think the difference is anywhere near the contracts they are going to get.

I'd rather have Hawes than Lopez. I think Hawes does a lot more things well.
Lopez vs. Hawes- Lopez getting to the line makes a huge difference. If the improvement Hawes made last year sticks, they are probably closer than their salaries indicate. Even with Lopez's injury, he has a much more consistent track record and a higher ceiling. He's not "worth" the max, but value is so dependent on circumstance, and those two guys are in very different circumstances on their teams and in their careers.


i think hawes is a very underrated defender and rebounder, but offensively, while he's fairly skilled, he's skilled in a bad way. he takes a lot of jump shots (which he makes, but which are significantly less efficient than other types of offense), and he has the ball in his hands a lot out past the elbow, which is not really conducive to a productive offense, since he's not really a threat off the dribble and a lot of times his back is to the basket out past 15 feet, which is really about the worst position you can find yourself in the halfcourt.

also, because he plays so far away from the basket, he's really a non-factor on the offensive glass.


and it's also worth noting that hawes has chronic back issues, so even if he's playing well, he's just a tweak away from being out of the lineup for 2 months.


i know lopez has had injury issues, but i'm not sure that hawes's health is any better.



i don't think either player is a foundational piece for a championship team, but i think hawes is probably the easier player to fit into a roster, and that's especially true considering their relative contracts.
   678. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4180113)
676- I agree with all of that. Lee fits into what I was saying about bad teams, too. Defense just was not something those Knicks teams valued. In both cases, I think their other problems were highlighted by their lack of size, or conversely, that stuff would not have been so glaring if they were bigger.
   679. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4180116)
Let's not overreact to Lopez's injury from last year. It was a broken foot, yes, and that's scary for a guy that size. But it's not any sort of chronic thing yet.
   680. Jimmy P Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4180125)
Nic Batum hasn't been offered a contract yet. Minnesota doesn't want to tie up cap room if Portland's going to match, so they're trying to work a sign-and-trade. If Minnesota doesn't offer a contract, I don't know how Portland and Batum actually negotiate a deal. Not good vibes going on with those two parties right now.

KC Johnson in Chicago is saying that the Bulls and Wolves are working on a Korver sign-and-trade.
   681. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4180126)
Now talk is that Korver might go to MIN (idea being that CHI was gonna waive him anyway and be on the hook for a 500k buyout) - if true, how will they do this? Amnesty Darko, dump Webster, renounce Tolliver - okay - but adding Roy, Batum (maybe not Batum, I s'pose), Shved, Korver,...

EDIT: Oh, hi Jimmy.
   682. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4180128)
@KCJHoop: RT @ajchawks: Source says #Hawks had interest in #Bulls F Kyle Korver but he's likely headed to Minnesota in trade.


Hmmm. What's the penalty for just ignoring the salary cap?
   683. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4180142)
I guess adhering to the cap is the true market inefficiency.
   684. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4180146)
MN cap- The point of the Korver trade would be to have his non-guaranteed contract on the books. That means they would either use him as part of a packaage to another team who is trying to cut costs, or they would be giving up a guaranteed contract (maybe Ridnour?) to get Korver to shave some money off. My impression is that they would be right around enough cap room for Batum, Roy, Shved if they amnesty Darko, renounce AT, waive Webster, and trade one of their guaranteed guys into cap space (Barea, Ridnour, Wes Johnson).

Maybe adding more non-guaranteed money is a way to clear more space if they want to use that other dead money in a trade (either for Batum, or I heard them linked to Iguodala again recently). Even if they acquire Korver, I would be surprised if he ever suits up.
   685. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4180147)
idea being that CHI was gonna waive him anyway and be on the hook for a 500k buyout

I don't know the cap repercussions of that buyout, but this screams extreme cheapness (assuming the Bulls are receiving nothing back in return). If there's another adequate backup* out there that the Bulls are going to get now (Courtney Lee, perhaps?) that's cheaper, then I at that time will retroactively have no problem with this. It's just been so damn quiet around here (though we're supposed to be happy to have Hinrich back I suppose), with all the talk centering on veteran minimum deals, that it's hard to see what the end game is supposed to be here.

*Or even better, starter to replace Rip.
   686. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4180149)
I don't see anyone on the Minn roster that makes sense coming back to Chicago, including Ridnour.

EDIT: Or Barea (posted after post 687).
   687. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4180151)
Barea's salary would be a match. He could play a lot of 1 with Rose out and move off the ball some when he returns. He doesn't play much defense, but he does have that one move where he flops backwards when the ballhandler touches him, so there's that
   688. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4180167)
It can't be both CHI and MIN trying to save $.
There's also the "MIN wants to make a move for Iggy if they can't get Batum" storyline (where the consensus is that they can't) - not sure how this would fit that.

*Or even better, starter to replace Rip.

Ronnie Brewer just hit the market...
   689. Raskolnikov Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4180172)
Barea > Korver. Why would MIN do that deal?
   690. JJ1986 Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4180175)
Barea > Korver. Why would MIN do that deal?


I think they'd immediately buy out Korver. They need a lot of cap space if they're going to sign Batum.
   691. steagles Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4180188)
There's also the "MIN wants to make a move for Iggy if they can't get Batum" storyline (where the consensus is that they can't) - not sure how this would fit that.
i don't necessarily understand why MIN would offer him, but pekovic is really the only name on MIN's roster that would intrigue me. i guess derrick williams would be interesting as well, but i don't really know how they could find enough minutes for him, thaddeus young, dorrell wright, moe harkless, evan turner, and nick young to all develop and excel at the same time.
   692. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4180205)
Am I the only person who thinks the NBA free agent/salary cap/signing period is nothing but abject chaos with no rhyme or reason whatsoever?
   693. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4180210)
Am I the only person who thinks the NBA free agent/salary cap/signing period is nothing but abject chaos with no rhyme or reason whatsoever?


Beautiful, glorious chaos.
   694. jmurph Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4180216)
Beautiful, glorious chaos.


I love it, too, the only downside (to me) is how few of the deals are really about basketball. And even when they are about basketball (the Howard to Brooklyn talk), 85% of the deal still turns into matching contracts and evening out salaries and identifying cap space and utilizing trade exceptions, etc. In that proposed 4 team Howard deal, for example, there were like 11 (more?) players moving, but only 2 of the guys (Howard, Brooks) were actually wanted by the teams set to receive them. Still fun, but sometimes the downside of the way the salary cap is structured.
   695. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4180224)
Am I the only person who thinks the NBA free agent/salary cap/signing period is nothing but abject chaos with no rhyme or reason whatsoever?

Yup!

In all sincerity, studying the pro hoops offseason roster dance convinced of the importance of incentives and market structures more readily than my umpteen years of econ ever did.

**

Jonathan Gibson of the Celts summer league club had seven turns in as many minutes today. No player since 85-86 has equaled that feat (three managed six in nine, two had five in seven, eight had four turns in four minutes or less). The most "impressive" of the latter bunch were Dennis Nutt and Gerald Wallace, who did it in two minutes.
   696. Booey Posted: July 11, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4180226)
Am I the only person who thinks the NBA free agent/salary cap/signing period is nothing but abject chaos with no rhyme or reason whatsoever?


I've stopped even trying to figure out how each trade and signing works and why.
   697. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4180233)
The NBA is great - a lot of times teams are just trading chunks of the salary cap for each other. Player ability is only a secondary concern.

For some reason I remember Smits eviscerating the Knicks a bunch of times in the playoffs. Of course that may be clouded by my irrational hatred of Patrick Ewing.
   698. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4180236)
I totally missed that the Bucks and Ilyasova agreed on a 5yr, $45mil deal.
   699. JJ1986 Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4180240)
Marc Stein:

Source close to process says Portland & Charlotte have indeed told Brook Lopez they're ready to sign him today to four-year max offer sheet
   700. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4180241)
A number of tweets out there about why the Nets are anxious to get the Howard deal done today, including someone else offering Lopez a deal. Well:

ESPNSteinLine: Source close to process says Portland & Charlotte have indeed told Brook Lopez they're ready to sign him today to four-year max offer sheet


They've also said the Rockets might get involved if the Bulls match Asik - and their motives would be more to get the Nets out of the hunt. Wonder why they didn't go that route first, because I see the Bulls taking their time here.
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