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Monday, July 02, 2012

OT: NBA basketball July Thread 2012

I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: Jim Furtado trolling his own site when he’s bored.

Tripon Posted: July 02, 2012 at 04:21 PM | 2487 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball

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   701. JJ1986 Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4180242)
edit: nvm
   702. Raskolnikov Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4180252)
Yup!

In all sincerity, studying the pro hoops offseason roster dance convinced of the importance of incentives and market structures more readily than my umpteen years of econ ever did.


Completely agree. Also, that the salary structures enforced by the CBA completely distorts the true market values of the players. It's apparent to me that the top end players (Howard, Williams, etc.) would get paid a lot more, and the middle lower tier players (JR Smith, Hinrich, Novak, etc.) would get paid less if this were a true free market.
   703. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4180274)
We all know Charlotte is run horribly but doesn't Portland generally have what is considered a "smart" front office? I really can't imagine Lopez being a max-player, but at least two organizations consider him that.
   704. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4180282)
4, if you count Orlando and New Jersey. Perhaps 5, if you want to believe the report on the Rockets.

I'm not sure about Portland's front office these days...
   705. Booey Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4180286)
We all know Charlotte is run horribly but doesn't Portland generally have what is considered a "smart" front office? I really can't imagine Lopez being a max-player, but at least two organizations consider him that.


Teams like Portland and Charlotte likely aren't ever going to be major players for top tier stars like Howard, Williams, Paul, etc, so they have to settle for what they can get.
   706. AROM Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4180288)
It's apparent to me that the top end players (Howard, Williams, etc.) would get paid a lot more, and the middle lower tier players (JR Smith, Hinrich, Novak, etc.) would get paid less if this were a true free market.


Howard yes, I don't think Williams would change much. This is assuming a free market, no salary cap, no maximum contract, but that overall league spending was unchanged. If I remember correctly the average payroll is about 65 million, so that implies you would pay 1.6 million per win.

Guys like Lebron who are worth 20+ wins per year would be valued well over 30 million. To earn 20 million you'd have to be worth 12 wins or so. He might be worth that but I think you have to stretch a bit to get him there. His best season by win shares was 11, with the 2007-08 Jazz. Last year he only had 4.1 WS, prorated to about 6 per 82 games.

You could say the blame for Williams' numbers being much worse in NJ goes to his lack of teammates. And you'd probably be right. But that doesn't really help the case for arguing what his individual value is.
   707. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 11, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4180289)
Am I the only person who thinks the NBA free agent/salary cap/signing period is nothing but abject chaos with no rhyme or reason whatsoever?
The NBA offseason is more like quantum physics - it does have a structure under which it can be (at least partly) understood, but that structure makes absolutely zero intuitive sense. To double the analogy, imagine a sort of Gnostic unintelligent design scenario where a flawed, ignorant demiurge created a universe based on his misrecognition of goodness and order, which produced the utterly bizarre quantum structure of the universe. It does make a sort of sense, but the sense that it makes is deeply perverse.
   708. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4180305)
Am I the only person who thinks the NBA free agent/salary cap/signing period is nothing but abject chaos with no rhyme or reason whatsoever?

I like this aspect of it though. It makes me respect good GMs/organizations more.
   709. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4180309)
I'm not sure about Portland's front office these days...


Paul Allen is always lurking, but even Olshey was a mixed bag with the Clippers. Getting Paul was great, but he waffled on sending Eric Gordon and required league assistance to close the deal. Even though the Baron Davis deal mainly looks bad in hindsight, that wasn't brilliant at the time either.
   710. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:09 PM (#4180313)
I really can't imagine Lopez being a max-player, but at least two organizations consider him that.

The problem is that the "max-player" concept is sort of incoherent when used this way, although it is the way nearly everyone uses it. As It seems to me that everyone has this idea of a max player that is sort of derived from the overall group of players who tend to get max contracts. So Lopez gets one and people compare him to the max guy group which includes guys like Lebron, Dwight, Durant, etc. But as 702 says, most of those guys are almost certainly worth far more than the arbitrary max contract limit. So you can't really look at the fact that Lebron or whoever is making $14m and then reason that Brook Lopez can't be worth $14m too because he's not nearly that good. It's very possible that Brook Lopez or Rudy Gay or whoever is both worth the max that they can be offered while simultaneously being a worse deal than some other player on a max.

Short version, just because superstar player X is a better deal on the max than good player Y, doesn't make the player Y contract a bad deal. This seems to be under-recogonized by the NBA writer/fan community to me.

I wonder if it's not somewhat due to crossover with the baseball community. In MLB, the free agent market is much closer to a true market where you can actually estimate something like the going price for a 3-win player in free agency. In the NBA, due to the max-contracts, RFAs, bird rights, MLE, etc, there really isn't a single free agent market. Instead each team has certain players that they can offer certain amounts of money to, and other players that they can only offer smaller amounts to. To me that makes it much harder to figure out what it actually means to be a $14m NBA player.

As a disclaimer, I don't actually have an opinion on whether Brook Lopez is worth whichever version of the max he's allowed to get. I'm not a big fan, so I would tend to think not, but I have no idea what the revenue curves for these teams looks like, so he very well could be. I just know that you need more information to judge that than the bare fact that some other superior player or several other superior players are making the same amount.

Edit: Several other people have made similar points.
   711. Jimmy P Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:14 PM (#4180317)
Paul Allen is always lurking

And ever since he got rid of Pritchard, he's been doing way too much meddling.

Jarrett Jack was thrown into the Dorrell Wright trade.
   712. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4180324)
Short version, just because superstar player X is a better deal on the max than good player Y, doesn't make the player Y contract a bad deal. This seems to be under-recogonized by the NBA writer/fan community to me.

I could be wrong, but I think the issue is less about the players worth and more about what it does to your cap situation. So...maybe it does go back to his worth?
   713. AROM Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:22 PM (#4180330)
710, good points, but I understand that and it does not change my view of a potential Lopez deal. Lebron is probably worth 35-40 million. Durant 25-30. D Wade is worth 20 million. Brook Lopez is not worth 14-17 million. I think he's significantly less valuable than Tyson Chandler, and Tyson did not get a max contract.
   714. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:23 PM (#4180334)
This is assuming a free market, no salary cap, no maximum contract, but that overall league spending was unchanged. If I remember correctly the average payroll is about 65 million, so that implies you would pay 1.6 million per win.

The only thing that I would point out is that if you actually moved towards a more MLB-type system, league spending might very well change, because the average cost of a win in the NBA right now is basically a function of the CBA revenue split. If each owner controlled their own spending, it might very well go up. A big chunk of the payroll spending in the NBA right now is not really a function of the actual marginal benefit of the player in question to the team that's signing him.
   715. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4180336)
To double the analogy, imagine a sort of Gnostic unintelligent design scenario where a flawed, ignorant demiurge created a universe based on his misrecognition of goodness and order, which produced the utterly bizarre quantum structure of the universe. It does make a sort of sense, but the sense that it makes is deeply perverse.


What bothers me most is that I understand *this* statement more than I understand "Bird rights" and "mid-salary exceptions" or whatever the hell that #### is. You might as well ask me the difference between a charmed vs an up or down quark. All I know is that trading Joe Johnson suddenly threw Atlanta into this massive whirlwind of crazy, where we used to live with "how bad will Marvin Williams be this year?"
   716. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4180345)
Jarrett Jack was thrown into the Dorrell Wright trade.


That's fantastic for the Warriors. Jack is a very reliable, borderline starter-quality player. Exactly the kind of guy you want playing behind Steph Curry's ankle.
   717. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4180347)
I could be wrong, but I think the issue is less about the players worth and more about what it does to your cap situation. So...maybe it does go back to his worth?

The way I think about the cap situation is that making a commitment to a player under a salary cap carries more of an opportunity cost than just the $ you have committed to him becuase it pushes you closer to the cap. So it would go into the analysis definitely. But then the question becomes how large is the opportunity cost. In the case of somebody like Rudy Gay, clearly signing him to the deal they did theoretically carried some additional opportunity costs to the Grizzlies because of the cap. But it's not totally clear to me that those costs were very large, becuase the Grizzlies are not able to play in the free agent pool very much anyway. It did probably cost them O.J. Mayo this year, but I'm not totally sure that was a big deal either. So in that case, I think it probably most comes down to a question of whether paying this guy this much money is likely to add more than that to the bottom line. I don't know the answer to that in most cases.
   718. I am going to be Frank Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4180353)
I totally forgot about the Pritchard fiasco for which I was basing my "smart" adjective on.

710, good points, but I understand that and it does not change my view of a potential Lopez deal. Lebron is probably worth 35-40 million. Durant 25-30. D Wade is worth 20 million. Brook Lopez is not worth 14-17 million. I think he's significantly less valuable than Tyson Chandler, and Tyson did not get a max contract.


I basically agree with your assessment, however, since some superstars are worth more than a max contract does a club use its "savings" on a second-tier player like Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert and Eric Gordon or does it spread it around on three or four guys who are rotation players?
   719. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4180371)
I basically agree with your assessment, however, since some superstars are worth more than a max contract does a club use its "savings" on a second-tier player like Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert and Eric Gordon or does it spread it around on three or four guys who are rotation players?


Either way, I guess you would be trying to find guys you provide more marginal value for the $$. If you can get two 5 win guys for $7m each or one 12 win guy, you'd take the second.
   720. Booey Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4180374)
All I know is that trading Joe Johnson suddenly threw Atlanta into this massive whirlwind of crazy, where we used to live with "how bad will Marvin Williams be this year?"


Seeing as how he was the Jazz's most notable pick-up this offseason, I'm suddenly holding out hope that it's not too late for him to develop into another Kevin Durant. You know, the type of player the Hawks must have thought he was gonna be when they picked him ahead of DWill and Paul.

Don't rain on my parade by reminding me of the likelihood of this actually happening.
   721. Jimmy P Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4180377)
Everyone is now reporting that Dwight Howard trade talks are done (for now), and that Orlando will focus on a coaching search.

Good luck finding someone who wants to sign up for that mess.
   722. Joel W Posted: July 11, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4180378)
Tyson Chandler didn't get the max, but that doesn't mean he's not a max player. The error can go both ways.

@717, The NBA's salary cap is problematic for that analysis because it's totally non-linear. Adding salary up to a point carries a huge opportunity cost, but then after that, it's basically just pain tolerance of the owner. I think Nate Silver once said about the NBA that there are two ways to win. One is to find players that are worth way more than the max and get them, or figure out a way to be way over the cap.
   723. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4180388)
710, good points, but I understand that and it does not change my view of a potential Lopez deal. Lebron is probably worth 35-40 million. Durant 25-30. D Wade is worth 20 million. Brook Lopez is not worth 14-17 million. I think he's significantly less valuable than Tyson Chandler, and Tyson did not get a max contract.

I actually think that I agree with you on Lopez. I guess my point was less about Lopez and more about the way much of the discussion around NBA contracts is normally devoid of any nod towards the fact that the NBA labor market is highly distorted by the various rules and goofy structures they have.

Even still I would say that I'm not totally sure that "Brook Lopez is not worth 14-17 million" is true, at least for all teams in all situations. I just don't know enough about what the revenue picture for the teams looks like, particularly with the new CBA split being more favorable for the teams.

That said, the salary floor and a few other aspects of the system would also tend to make certain players get paid more than they probably would in a hypothetical freer labor market and Brook Lopez seems like a good candidate to be one of those players.

I guess my point is mostly that the teams seem to decide that paying this amount to this player is a better deal for us than not paying this amount to this player in a lot of situations where the knee-jerk reaction amongst the fans and many of the writers is that the teams are wrong. I tend to think they are probably not wrong as much as the fans think they are, but the fans/analysts are generally not thinking about the deals from the same perspective as the owners/GMs because the team bottom line is mostly irrelevant to the fans.
   724. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4180389)
"how bad will Marvin Williams be this year?"

Seeing as how he was the Jazz's most notable pick-up this offseason, I'm suddenly holding out hope that it's not too late for him to develop into another Kevin Durant.
I laughed so hard, I almost choked to death. That was awesome.
   725. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4180393)
good line by nate.
   726. Raskolnikov Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4180395)
I basically agree with your assessment, however, since some superstars are worth more than a max contract does a club use its "savings" on a second-tier player like Brook Lopez, Roy Hibbert and Eric Gordon or does it spread it around on three or four guys who are rotation players?

I think Nate Silver once said about the NBA that there are two ways to win. One is to find players that are worth way more than the max and get them, or figure out a way to be way over the cap.



I think the blueprint is clear - copy the Miami Heat.

1. Find 3 top-50 players, give them all max contracts.

2. Try to hit the jackpot with a couple of rookies or unvalued vets (Chalmers, Haslem).

3. Hope that a bunch of vets will sign below market for the rings (Battier, Allen).

Mix and serve for a 3-4 year window.

The way the current NBA salary structure is inflexible, it strikes me as the optimal way to distribute the wealth.
   727. robinred Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4180400)
I have respect for Hennigan for not just throwing up his hands to get it over with, but at the same time, I think it is better at this point for all parties if Howard is not in Orlando when camps open.
   728. Joel W Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4180402)
As to Brook Lopez, 24 year old centers who are that good offensively don't grow on trees. Here's the list of centers who did what Lopez did at 22 or younger. Or, here is the list when it's just guys over 6'10

It's rare company. Lopez missed his age 23 season, which is obviously not good, but he can clearly play.

Edit: Brook, not Robin, I'm an idiot.
   729. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4180409)
Der K, this is off-topic, but when you mentioned your umpteen years of econ last page, did you study it at a graduate level at all?
   730. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4180411)
Ummm, Brook.
Curious if Portland will pursue Robin as some suggest, now that I think of it.
   731. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4180413)
Got a masters (with a thesis on the impact of MLB free agency on player effort), then did a year and half toward a PhD when I quit, in large part because I was bummed about a girl. (Maaaaaybe not the best reason in retrospect.)
   732. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4180414)
As to Robin Lopez

He's also a RFA, but is definitely not worth the max, nor will he be getting it.

I have respect for Hennigan for not just throwing up his hands to get it over with, but at the same time, I think it is better at this point for all parties if Howard is not in Orlando when camps open.

He might just be Houston's to lose at this point. And they're going to have more flexibility once they're not locked up with Lin and Asik's offer sheets.
   733. robinred Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4180420)
If I had to bet, I would still bet on Brooklyn. As Hollinger said, dead trade talks are often like zombies.
   734. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4180426)
Once Lopez signs his extension (which is going to happen now that these talks are dead), he cannot be traded until Jan 15th (I believe, maybe it's sooner). So that would mean you'd be betting on him starting the year in Orlando, which I think is unlikely.
   735. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4180428)
They're only mostly dead, Moses.
But, yes - I don't think he'll be a Net. It never made sense for him to end up there.
   736. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4180436)
I could have used scare quotes.
   737. Zipperholes Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4180439)
If I had to bet, I would still bet on Brooklyn. As Hollinger said, dead trade talks are often like zombies.
So is a player's previously-denied willingness to sign an extension with the acquiring team.
   738. Booey Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4180443)
"how bad will Marvin Williams be this year?"

Seeing as how he was the Jazz's most notable pick-up this offseason, I'm suddenly holding out hope that it's not too late for him to develop into another Kevin Durant.

I laughed so hard, I almost choked to death. That was awesome.


Hope you didn't miss the sarcasm in that post. I have about as much faith in MaWill developing into Durant as I do about MoWill turning into CP3.

My actual expectation of Marvin is that he'll be to the Jazz what Josh Howard was last year; in other words, starting about 20 games into the season and continuing to the end of it, I'll be yelling at Corbin every time he puts him on the floor.
   739. AROM Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:46 PM (#4180446)
Assuming Lopez signs and it's over:

If Dwight really, really wants to be a Net, he can sign there after the season for a mid level exemption. Just so long as everyone makes it clear there are no promises beyond the year - don't want to end up with a Joe Smith situation.

I don't think there's any chance of that. He'll get over it and pick someplace else that can offer him money.
   740. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4180452)
Got a masters (with a thesis on the impact of MLB free agency on player effort), then did a year and half toward a PhD

Ah, cool. Was wondering because I am actually quitting my job to start a PhD in the fall.

when I quit, in large part because I was bummed about a girl. (Maaaaaybe not the best reason in retrospect.)

Yeah, it happens to the best of us.
   741. Booey Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4180453)
I don't think there's any chance of that. He'll get over it and pick someplace else that can offer him money.


Lakers.
   742. jmurph Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4180457)
Trade talks now not suspended! (according to Hennigan via Hoops Rumors)

We may come to realize it wasn't all Otis's fault down there. Sounds like "front office sources" other than the GM probably need to pipe down for a while.

   743. AROM Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4180458)
I probably am underestimating Lopez's potential, looking at the list from 728. He's not comparable to guys like Shaq, Duncan, Howard, Kareem, because he's not that kind of elite defender.

But comparing his age 21 season to Pau Gasol, they are very similar all across the statsheet. Pau isn't a difference maker on defense either but he has earned his max contract.
   744. AROM Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4180461)
Lakers.


Having his contract and Bynum's expire at the same time gives this ultra capped out team a chance.
   745. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4180462)
Got a masters (with a thesis on the impact of MLB free agency on player effort), then did a year and half toward a PhD

Ah, cool. Was wondering because I am actually quitting my job to start a PhD in the fall.
You've already made the decision, so maybe this isn't useful, but if I may ask - are you getting full funding? Scholarship for tuition plus stipend?

Doctoral work isn't a terrible idea in the current job market if you're getting funding - a guaranteed lower middle class income plus reasonably interesting work, with prospects for more, isn't a bad deal. But if you're planning to take out loans (and aren't already wealthy), I'd pretty strongly advise against it.
   746. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: July 11, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4180466)
Was wondering because I am actually quitting my job to start a PhD in the fall.

Good on you! Where are you going?

I'd pretty strongly advise against it.

I dunno. Dreams (presuming this is a dream) are worth following, even taking a significant financial hit. [/personal bias]
   747. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4180470)
Trade talks now not suspended! (according to Hennigan via Hoops Rumors)

Reading/speculating between the lines here...but, what is he doing having a press conference now? Looking at who has what to lose/gain at this point, it would make sense he would say this in order not to reduce the Magic's leverage with non-Nets teams interested in Howard. It would make sense that it was the Nets that would pull out now (and also leak it*), because they're also trying to keep Lopez from signing an offer sheet with anyone else. The last couple of days, it's been the Nets setting the deadlines, including today's. Most of the rumors throughout the process surely seem to be favorable to the Nets as well.

*Since the Russian has taken over, the Nets have been one of the leakiest teams around, going all the way back to pre-Decision.
   748. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4180472)
Because I'm a jackass, the first thing I did was offer partly negative advice instead of congratulating Maxwn. Sorry. Congrats, dude.

On the "pursuing a dream", I mean, I wouldn't tell someone absolutely not to Pursue a Dream. I've just seen a number of friends put themselves in a difficult position because they pursued a dream without considering the extent of the financial hit. Doctoral programs at some schools, in some fields, can be very exploitative of people who want to pursue a dream.
   749. Tripon Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4180478)

I think the blueprint is clear - copy the Miami Heat.

1. Find 3 top-50 players, give them all max contracts.

2. Try to hit the jackpot with a couple of rookies or unvalued vets (Chalmers, Haslem).

3. Hope that a bunch of vets will sign below market for the rings (Battier, Allen).

Mix and serve for a 3-4 year window.


I'd change the first one with

1. Convince the best player in the NBA to sign with you, draft a top 10 player overall in the NBA with the 5th pick in a loaded draft, then sign a top 20 player to be a role player to the top two.

But that's always been the 'system'. Even the Spurs led teams won with Duncan leading the way.
   750. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4180482)
You've already made the decision, so maybe this isn't useful, but if I may ask - are you getting full funding? Scholarship for tuition plus stipend?

Yes. My plan was actually to go get the master's and pick up some math that I didn't take in undergrad on the way. So I targeted Middle Tennessee State which is near my hometown where I can live very cheaply. The plan was to get the math that would make it more likely that I could get into, get funding and hack it at a more highly-ranked school for the PhD. Once I got in there, they offered me more money to just enter their PhD program and pick up the math I need that way. There's a fair chance that I may transfer in a year or so to another school but I guess I'll see how it goes. MTSU doesn't really have much of a monetary/macro presence which is what I think I am most interested in, but it should be very good for remedying some of the holes in my skillset as well as figuring out to what extent the PhD is for me. If I transfer or decide to reenter the working world, I'll just take the M.A.

Anyway, not sure if this is the absolute best plan, but no additional debt means that I doubt it can hurt much. The M.A. alone would have some value in the industry I've been working in(banking) so that's not a bad fallback plan.
   751. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4180490)
Kaman to the Mavs.

That should fix everything.
   752. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4180492)
Are they going to be able to pull a PG out of a hat? Marion-Dirk-Kaman is a strong front line. Sessions aint cutting it.
   753. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4180495)
They probably wish they were in on Dragic. They probably couldn't have traded for Lowry, but perhaps they can take Calderon from the Raps. Are the Wolves looking to move Ridnour, or was that just a suggestion for the Korver trade?

JL3 really isn't a point, but he could fill a role similar to Barea off the bench.
   754. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4180498)
It's cool, guys, they'll just let Vince run the point. Also, Derek Fisher is probably available to fill the old point guard role.

Seriously though, who is the best guard that's still out there? O.J?
   755. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4180499)
Nets GM Billy King was in Los Angeles Wednesday finalizing details of a five-year, maximum extension with Lopez's agent, Arn Tellem. The Charlotte Bobcats expressed interest in signing Lopez to an offer sheet, but would only be permitted to offer him four years. The odds of Lopez signing with the Bobcats for the same or less money than the Nets are offering were exceedingly slim, league sources said.

---

If Lopez signed an offer sheet and the Nets matched, he could not be traded for a year without his permission and could not be traded to the team that signed him to the offer sheet for a year, period. If Lopez signed an extension with the Nets, he would not be trade-eligible until Jan. 15 as a Bird free agent signing for more than 120 percent of his previous year's salary.


From Ken Berger's article.
   756. Raskolnikov Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4180502)
It's cool, guys, they'll just let Vince run the point. Also, Derek Fisher is probably available to fill the old point guard role.

Seriously though, who is the best guard that's still out there? O.J?


I would say Calderon - but neither Kaman nor Calderon strike me as Carlisle system guys.
   757. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 05:47 PM (#4180504)
I would say Calderon - but neither Kaman nor Calderon strike me as Carlisle system guys.

Calderon is definitely better than O.J. Not sure if I'm forgetting anyone else. As to the second point maybe not, but unless I'm missing something, they basically have Carter and Beaubois on the roster at the guard positions, so they are probably to the point of just needing someone who can play.
   758. robinred Posted: July 11, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4180513)
So is a player's previously-denied willingness to sign an extension with the acquiring team.
Once Lopez signs his extension (which is going to happen now that these talks are dead), he cannot be traded until Jan 15th (I believe, maybe it's sooner). So that would mean you'd be betting on him starting the year in Orlando, which I think is unlikely.


We'll see. But I don't think it makes much sense to rule out the one place Howard said he wants to go.
   759. robinred Posted: July 11, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4180516)
Was wondering because I am actually quitting my job to start a PhD in the fall.


Good luck. Make sure you have enough $ for League Pass and to go to Grizz games to give us live post-game reports.
   760. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 06:14 PM (#4180520)
johnhollinger: Okay, NOW the Howard deal is dead. RT @daldridgetnt Source: Brook Lopez to re-sign with the Brooklyn Nets.


As I was saying....

   761. robinred Posted: July 11, 2012 at 06:25 PM (#4180531)
As I was saying....


I knew that already, Moses. My point is that we have seen Arenas', Lewis' and Johnson's contracts dealt, and other things no one expected. The problem with Hollinger's pronouncements about these kinds of things is that he always makes the same mistake I made when Joe Johnson went to BKN in the first place: he is too linear in his thinking. All the arcane rules and regs and the importance of landing stars make it more like a chessboard, and no one can see that many moves ahead.

On a simpler level, the fact that I don't think it's a good idea for Howard to start the season in Orlando doesn't mean that he won't, and the fact that Lopez has signed a big extension doesn't mean that a third team might not get into a deal and make it work in a few months. If Howard stays there, the board will look different in January than it does now, and Hennigan seems like he is going to be patient.

   762. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4180542)
Good luck. Make sure you have enough $ for League Pass and to go to Grizz games to give us live post-game reports.

Thanks, Robin. That's actually the worst aspect of this. I'm leaving Memphis to move back to rural middle Tennessee (Murfreesboro, where MTSU is, isn't really very rural, but I'm commuting from a couple of towns over). My share of my season tickets are staying here in Memphis with my girlfriend, so I'll probably only make a game or two next year instead of 8-10. That's one of the things I'm going to miss most about Memphis. League pass is probably a necessity. What does that run these days and has anybody used it primarily over the internet? How well does it work?
   763. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 06:54 PM (#4180558)
I wasn't talking about January*, but yes, of course there's a chance the Nets and Magic will make a deal once Lopez can be traded again. However, here's why it's unlikely and why I don't *think* it will happen (meaning I'm not saying it's impossible) - the various deals that the Nets and Magic were working on involved a number of sign and trades (that 4 teamer from the other day had like 6 guys that needed to sign to make it happen). Since there's not going to be anyone available for a S&T at midseason, it makes the deal much harder. Now, various players on either team can increase or decrease their values during the season, which could make a trade that sounds lopsided now less lopsided later on (for instance, Lopez and Brooks both taking big steps forward). But similar to you, I think the Magic see value to not having Howard at all this season and I think the most likely scenario is that Howard gets traded elsewhere before training camp starts. So if I put odds on it - I'd say it's 75/25** he's traded before the season (meaning, not to the Nets) and 5/95 he's traded to the Nets midseason (and I'd say it's a 99.9% chance he is traded at some point before the trade deadline). Howard has surprised us all so far, but I'm not sure what else he can do at this point to get himself on the Nets. As many others have said the whole time, the Nets as a trading partner never made the most sense for the Magic, even with Howard's demands.

*IOW, the deal being dead means the current deal at the current time and nothing more.
**I'd say the Rockets are favored (not by much), but also could see the Magic changing their mind and taking Bynum without a resign guarantee. Next most likely is a previously undiscussed, non-approved team - something out of LF like my previous mentions of Golden State.
   764. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 11, 2012 at 06:59 PM (#4180562)
@daldridgetnt: Nets' new contracts: $98M (DWill), $40M (Wallace), $89M (Joe Johnson's contract), $60M (Lopez). Total: $287 million


That's a lot for not a whole lot of wins.
   765. Raskolnikov Posted: July 11, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4180563)
Only relative to the cap. Prokhorov is loaded - that's coffee money for him.
   766. andrewberg Posted: July 11, 2012 at 07:09 PM (#4180571)
Bucher says Wolves-Blazers discussing deal where Batum goes to MN for 2 future firsts and a third team's veteran SF. That could be the Korver link. If the deal is Ridnour and 2 1's for Batum, it is very risky but probably worth it to push in now.
   767. Spivey Posted: July 11, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4180575)
Howard's going to play out his career signing 1 year deals with the Magic and pissing and moaning the whole year. It will be magical.
   768. Raskolnikov Posted: July 11, 2012 at 07:19 PM (#4180576)
I like Batum. Love-Rubio-Pekovic-Batum is a great core to build around. And you can always package Pekovic/Batum/Williams in the future for an upgrade.
   769. Fourth True Outcome Posted: July 11, 2012 at 07:47 PM (#4180591)
League pass is probably a necessity. What does that run these days and has anybody used it primarily over the internet? How well does it work?


I've been watching games primarily on League Pass Broadband for the last two seasons. I don't remember exactly how much it cost, and NBA.com is being coy because I imagine they haven't set next season's rate yet, but it's been something like $125 for the pass. I really like how it's done and the picture quality is pretty good, but be careful of blackout restrictions before you commit. As a Celtics fan in Portland, it hasn't really jammed me too badly, but if I wanted to watch primarily Blazers games it wouldn't be worth anything to me. I don't know what the Grizzlies' cable situation looks like, but it might prevent LP Broadband from being useful.
   770. Into the Void Posted: July 11, 2012 at 07:52 PM (#4180594)
I don't know what the Grizzlies' cable situation looks like, but it might prevent LP Broadband from being useful.


Yeah I was just going to say that. He's staying in Tennessee so I'd have to guess all Grizzlies games would be blacked out. According to their site "Blackouts take place when a game is televised locally in your area via a regional sports network or an over-the-air station."

Edit: found some people claiming it's basically a 75 mile radius. And this sucks: "Basically, if you live outside of 75 miles of charlotte, but still in NC/SC and your local cable company doesnt pay the Fox fee it is impossible to see the games legally. The only option is illegal streams. The whole thing is a giant **** and is a huge reason the bobcats have no fans."
   771. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4180603)
Ah yes blackouts. Now that I think about it, I believe all the Grizzlies games are aired where I'll be living. I still may do league pass for the rest of the league, and I don't think my hometown cable company has a LP option. Glad to know the LP broadband works pretty well technically.
   772. robinred Posted: July 11, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4180612)

*IOW, the deal being dead means the current deal at the current time and nothing more.


Fair enough.

I am assuming the Mahinmi deal means that DK consults for the Pacers.
   773. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: July 11, 2012 at 09:15 PM (#4180620)
Suggesting that the pacers would work with the likes of me strikes me as an insult to a certain somebody who chimes in every now and then around here.

Not sure what I think yet. 4/16 sounds ok + collison's been a bit of a disappointment (I was surprised to learn that he's never posted a positive simple rating) but it still feels like an overpay.

Hickson stays w portland for another year

Gerald green to Indy

Jamison may go to the nets?
   774. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 09:31 PM (#4180629)
Now that the Grizzlies have signed Jerryd Bayless, I have realized that I know basically nothing about him other than his name and that he is in the league. I think I have probably paid less attention to the Raptors in the last couple of years than any team in the league. At least the Bobcats had the hook of being the worst team ever and the Wizards had that impressive collection of knuckleheads. I suppose there could be some other team that is so boring that I couldn't even think of them while I was sitting here trying to think of crappy boring teams.
   775. GregD Posted: July 11, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4180634)
Now that the Grizzlies have signed Jerryd Bayless, I have realized that I know basically nothing about him other than his name and that he is in the league. I think I have probably paid less attention to the Raptors in the last couple of years than any team in the league. At least the Bobcats had the hook of being the worst team ever and the Wizards had that impressive collection of knuckleheads. I suppose there could be some other team that is so boring that I couldn't even think of them while I was sitting here trying to think of crappy boring teams.
The Kings? I guess Boogie Cousins could fit in the Washington knucklehead category, though.
   776. JJ1986 Posted: July 11, 2012 at 09:40 PM (#4180638)
The Pistons are boring, except for that one game where the coach benched half the team.
   777. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: July 11, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4180644)
Off the top of my head, Bayless is a cross b/w Lou Williams and Rodney stuckey. Has stretches where he's a borderline all-star - at best, can shoot from range, penetrate, distribute acceptably, score 20 a game, and defend - but inconsistent. May not be 100% healthy.
   778. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: July 11, 2012 at 09:57 PM (#4180651)
Green deal reportedly for 3/10m.

rumor! Thad Young for Humphries?! (very unconfirmed / i don't buy it)
edit - never mind that last one.
   779. GregD Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4180660)
The Pistons are boring, except for that one game where the coach benched half the team.
Yes they are more boring than the Kings.
   780. robinred Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:26 PM (#4180662)
Kaman to the Mavs.


Collison and Jones are both expirings as well. Cuban is still thinking world domination--Paul and Howard in July 2013 or a run at Howard before that.
   781. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4180663)
The Kings? I guess Boogie Cousins could fit in the Washington knucklehead category, though.

Nah. For one thing, I pretty much pay some attention to all the Western Conference teams. Cousins is an interesting player even outside of the maturity questions as was Tyreke when he first got there. Plus they actually got quality minutes out of the last pick in the draft last year. They sucked, but they had some interesting qualities.

The Pistons are boring, except for that one game where the coach benched half the team.

Yeah, the Pistons were pretty boring this year, but not quite as much last year when all their vets hated Kuester. My apologies to Toronto if they had some sort of soap opera drama this year that I ignored.

Off the top of my head, Bayless is a cross b/w Lou Williams and Rodney stuckey. Has stretches where he's a borderline all-star - at best, can shoot from range, penetrate, distribute acceptably, score 20 a game, and defend - but inconsistent. May not be 100% healthy.

Well that sounds good to me.
   782. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4180665)
Cuban is still thinking world domination--Paul and Howard in July 2013 or a run at Howard before that.

I guess that makes as much sense as anything for them. Unless he pulls something like that off, it's probably going to fall apart at some point anyway as Dirk ages. If you make it happen a bit earlier by swinging for the fences, its probably not any worse.
   783. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:34 PM (#4180666)
Me on Bayless: My glass is decidedly more than half full, mind you.

Now Houston is supposedly talking about amnestying Scola to help get Howard. Who exactly would be left to play with him?
   784. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4180667)
Now that the Grizzlies have signed Jerryd Bayless, I have realized that I know basically nothing about him other than his name and that he is in the league.

I didn't even know the second part of that. I remember when he was drafted but if you told me he played a total of 15 minutes in his NBA career I would have believed you. Any non-foreign player on the Raptors instantly becomes a nonentity. It was the same thing when the Sixers traded for Jason Kapono. "Jason Kapono? Hasn't be been playing in Europe for a few years?"
   785. robinred Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4180669)
If you make it happen a bit earlier by swinging for the fences, its probably not any worse.


This is more or less what the Lakers did with the Nash deal in some respects. A blogger called it "going supernova."

My guess is we will read Howard/Dallas rumors within the next day or so. Not sure what the rules are on trading Kaman--think they have to wait, but I don't know.
   786. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:47 PM (#4180671)
rumor! Thad Young for Humphries?! (very unconfirmed / i don't buy it)
edit - never mind that last one.
Tom Moore: #Sixers president Rod Thorn: Report of trade for Kris Humphries is inaccurate. about 10 minutes ago

John R. Finger ?@jrfingerCSN
Once again with feeling: The Sixers have never, ever, never inquired about Kris Humphries. Never. Ever.


i'm a really big fan of thad young, but i'd be fairly intrigued by this (unlikely) potential swap. humphries isn't as efficient as young, but he's still a pretty nifty player on offense. he's pretty good in the post and in transition and in the pick and roll, and he's got some range on his jumpshot, as well. he's got good size, he's an okay athlete, he's a great rebounder, and i actually think he's an underrated defender.

i also think this sixers team would be kind of an ideal situation for him, too. the offensive system is built on unselfish play and sharing the ball, and there's always multiple ballhandlers on the floor, so he should have no problem finding his game within the flow of their offense.


the contract could be a bit of an issue, though. if it's a 1 year deal, the salary doesn't really matter, but if he's going to be locked up for 5 years/50+ million, that'd be a bit of a pain.
   787. tshipman Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:51 PM (#4180674)
I think that now that Lopez has signed, the most likely destination for Howard is Houston or LA.

I think that Houston wants him more, and the whole thing with the Nets has really shown that what matters isn't necessarily the assets so much as getting the star on board.

I have no clue what Houston is doing otherwise if they're not getting Howard on board. Morey is getting weird and out there.
   788. robinred Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4180676)
Who exactly would be left to play with him?


This is one of the prblems with what Morey is supposedly trying to do. It would likely be Howard with some group like Patrick Patterson, Chandler Parsons, Courtney Lee, and Ramon Sessions, with several young guys on the bench and maybe Richardson or Turkoglu. Morey would seemingly be hoping Howard liked Houston and would get Paul to come.

My guess is that Bynum wouldn't care as much about that if they gave him a max deal--Bynum already has two rings, after all.

So, if Brooklyn is really off the table, I think Howard's mind might shift to the Lakers and Dallas, with Atlanta and Houston still there as well.
   789. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4180678)
This is more or less what the Lakers did with the Nash deal in some respects.

Pretty much. You don't know how much you've got left with Kobe or Dirk, so you might as well go for it while you can. A guy like Nash who's in the same boat is just about perfect for that strategy too.
   790. Booey Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4180683)
The whole thing is a giant **** and is a huge reason the bobcats have no fans."


The whole 7-59 thing probably doesn't help either...
   791. Maxwn Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:21 PM (#4180687)
In defense of the Raptors and their interestingness, it was pretty entertaining when they signed Landry Fields to that silly offer sheet to c***block the Knicks from Nash and then whiffed on him. So kudos to them for being interesting in July.
   792. Booey Posted: July 11, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4180701)
In defense of the Raptors and their interestingness, it was pretty entertaining when they signed Landry Fields to that silly offer sheet to c***block the Knicks from Nash and then whiffed on him. So kudos to them for being interesting in July.


Yeah, you know your team has problems when not even the Canadian wants to play in Canada.
   793. robinred Posted: July 12, 2012 at 01:37 AM (#4180729)
Morey would seemingly be hoping Howard liked Houston and would get Paul to come.

...and thinking hehas enough assets to add another guy during the year...
   794. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: July 12, 2012 at 04:24 AM (#4180742)
Call me crazy, but I like the pickup of Kaman for the Mavs quite a bit. Kaman hasn't been to the playoffs since 05-06; sometimes you put those guys in the right situation and they play with a lot more energy and can really add value (as the Mavs have already seen with Tyson Chandler). I'm not saying Kaman will be as good as Chandler was for Dallas but for 1 year 8 mil, I think it's a great signing.
   795. OsunaSakata Posted: July 12, 2012 at 08:30 AM (#4180775)
It looks like no one here has taken the bait of the 1992 vs. 2012 Olympic basketball team argument. Every sports talking head is not focusing on that Kobe said the 2012 team "could" beat the 1992 team. What does "could" mean. As far as I'm concerned, that means more than 10%. Even if you think the 1992 team would dominate the 2012 team, I think the 2012 team winning 1/3 of the time would still be a dominating performance. All Kobe said was "could". Hell, yeah, there should be no argument about that. Which one's better makes for a better sportstalk, but there's no question the 2012 team "could" beat the 1992 team.
   796. thok Posted: July 12, 2012 at 08:43 AM (#4180779)
It looks like no one here has taken the bait of the 1992 vs. 2012 Olympic basketball team argument.


We understand that competitive athletes will be competitive and say foolish things.
   797. jmurph Posted: July 12, 2012 at 09:03 AM (#4180794)
Off the top of my head, this team has more guys in their prime, right? Basically the entire squad, minus Kobe and Davis. Whereas Bird and Magic were on their way out... nah, you still can't get there. Most of the original squad was still in their prime, too, and they clearly had more all-time greats.
   798. Spivey Posted: July 12, 2012 at 09:58 AM (#4180836)
The big difference is that the original team had an all-time great center (Robinson) in his prime and another HOFer behind him (Ewing), and this team has Chandler.
   799. Raskolnikov Posted: July 12, 2012 at 10:20 AM (#4180858)
The big difference is that the original team had an all-time great center (Robinson) in his prime and another HOFer behind him (Ewing), and this team has Chandler.

The other difference being that the 1992 version was an all time great assembly.

The 2012 - basically a rich man's All Star team.
   800. tshipman Posted: July 12, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4180881)
I think a true 2012 Dream Team could win more than 50% of its games against the 1992 team.

The 1992 team was not without weaknesses, and they really would't be used to the level of defense. Maybe not, though. In 2012 there aren't a bunch of great centers. It's just Dwight Howard really. And Andrew Bynum when he can be bothered.
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