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Saturday, February 01, 2014

OT: NBA February 2014

In total, 14 former Lakers are under contract with other teams—more if training camp invites and traded draft picks are included:
Charlotte Bobcats: Ramon Sessions, Josh McRoberts, Jannero Pargo and Chris Douglas-Roberts (training camp invite)
Cleveland Cavaliers: Earl Clark
Clippers: Matt Barnes, Antawn Jamison
Houston Rockets: Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley (drafted 42nd overall in 2009, traded immediately to the Miami Heat)
Indiana Pacers: Andrew Bynum
Miami Heat: Toney Douglas (drafted 29th overall in 2009, traded immediately to the New York Knicks)
Milwaukee Bucks: Caron Butler
Minnesota Timberwolves: Ronny Turiaf
New York Knicks: Metta World Peace
Oklahoma City Thunder: Derek Fisher
Phoenix Suns: Gerald Green (training camp invite)
San Antonio Spurs: Shannon Brown
Utah Jazz: Malcolm Thomas (training camp invite)
Washington Wizards: Trevor Ariza

Bitter Mouse Posted: February 01, 2014 at 04:05 PM | 740 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba

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   501. King Mekong Posted: February 20, 2014 at 05:05 PM (#4659894)
FLIP

To get closer to/above the salary floor?
But the salary floor doesn't do anything negative to the team, they just pay more to other players.
   502. King Mekong Posted: February 20, 2014 at 05:08 PM (#4659898)
Looks like they are getting a 2nd rounder too
   503. vagab0nd (no longer an outl13r) Posted: February 20, 2014 at 05:13 PM (#4659901)
To improve the Heat's chances in the east?

Or another 2nd. Does anyone else have a 2nd rounder for the next 2 years?
   504. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 20, 2014 at 05:19 PM (#4659908)
Definitely surprised [Michael] Beasley hasn't been better. He was very comparable to Kevin Durant in college. . .I saw them both play in college. No, I don't have any understanding of what has happened to him.


Beasley wasn't as good as Durnat in college, but he was a beast. But its not hard to figure out what happened, is it? Durant worked his ass off and became the best. Beasley was a pain in the ass who preferred to smoke up.

I agree with Bill's take on Embiid and Wiggins. Wiggins, if he has the right coach, could light it up as soon as next year. Embiid is a bit more long-term and almost certainly needs to add weight. He is also an extraordinarily dirty player for someone new to the game. I wonder how that will translate to the NBA.
   505. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 20, 2014 at 05:26 PM (#4659913)
[504] Not a college basketball expert by any means but Beasley was 26-12 in 32 minutes a game on 53/38/77 and Durant was 26/11 in 36 minutes a game on 47/40/82. On the surface it looks like advantage Beasley to me, but one of the college basketball experts can/should account for conference/schedule. Then when you add in how young Durant was he clearly projected better.
   506. steagles Posted: February 20, 2014 at 05:41 PM (#4659925)
Tom Ziller @teamziller about 5 minutes ago
My back-of-the-water-bill math says the Granger trade cost Thad Young $1 million due to salary floor machinations.
Ben Golliver @BenGolliver 1 minute ago
Only one of 26 players traded (so far) this week has a PER above 15: Spencer Hawes (15.4)


   507. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 20, 2014 at 05:43 PM (#4659927)
On the surface it looks like advantage Beasley to me, but one of the college basketball experts can/should account for conference/schedule. Then when you add in how young Durant was he clearly projected better.

Same conference - Big 12. Beasley is 4 months younger and one year behind - so in basketball years Durant is only 8 months younger. So nothing significant there that would cause a difference.

Beasley did have off-court "issues" before, which rightfully should have been included in the pre-draft eval (and have impacted reality). Beasley was more of a SF/PF tweener than Durant, and his game hasn't translated well to either position in the pros consistently.

To improve the Heat's chances in the east?

I guess I haven't paid a ton of attention to Granger this year, but this seems like a downgrade. Perhaps the Pacers just want a better defender to throw at James/Wade and think they can get Turner to fit that role better. Turner is playing for a contract though, but maybe the Pacers fear losing Stephenson to UFA and this is also replacement for next year?
   508. steagles Posted: February 20, 2014 at 05:58 PM (#4659945)
I guess I haven't paid a ton of attention to Granger this year, but this seems like a downgrade. Perhaps the Pacers just want a better defender to throw at James/Wade and think they can get Turner to fit that role better. Turner is playing for a contract though, but maybe the Pacers fear losing Stephenson to UFA and this is also replacement for next year?
granger is shooting 36% from the floor this year. he's a worse ballhandler than turner, a worse rebounder than turner, a worse defender than turner. he's both less versatile and more injury prone than turner.
   509. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 20, 2014 at 06:03 PM (#4659950)
And costs twice as much! So I was really off. Good move, Indy!
   510. vagab0nd (no longer an outl13r) Posted: February 20, 2014 at 07:45 PM (#4659998)
508: Zach Lowe:
Put broadly: Turner is just not that good an NBA player, and the things he does well require him having the basketball. Well, Lance Stephenson has already turned into the ball-handling captain of the second unit, even pushing C.J. Watson, a nominal point guard, mostly off the ball. Stephenson’s a good enough 3-point shooter to spot up around Turner-centric plays, but that would represent a large rejiggering of Indy’s second-unit offense late in the game. Turner isn’t providing much spacing as a spot-up guy around Stephenson, and he’s probably a defensive downgrade even from a hobbled Granger. And those bench units have survived based upon very stingy defense. Turner might be able to goose the offense a bit by pushing the base, running the occasional pick-and-roll, and driving past defenders when Stephenson kicks the ball to him on the perimeter. But we have to see that in action.
   511. steagles Posted: February 20, 2014 at 08:51 PM (#4660021)
let me try to explain what i see with evan turner:

he's an inefficient volume scorer and as a general rule those types of players tend to have limited value outside of that specific ability. but turner is an exception to that rule because he's position versatile (he can play the 1, the 2 or the 3), he's a solid defender, he can rebound and create shots for his teammates.

basically, turner is extremely useful as a role player because there are a lot of things that he can do to help a team win. but his value is also limited as a role player because he doesn't have that one defining skill that he can rely on in crunch time.

and because of his inefficiency as a scorer, he's not good enough to be anything more than a role player.

   512. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 20, 2014 at 08:55 PM (#4660024)
My guess is that turner on d will be better than Lowe suggests (after all, he'll need to hustle to get the PT he needs) and worse than steagles thinks (after all, he's steagles).

Big baby getting bought out - LAC a rumored and obvious possible destination.
   513. steagles Posted: February 20, 2014 at 09:13 PM (#4660032)
My guess is that turner on d will be better than Lowe suggests (after all, he'll need to hustle to get the PT he needs) and worse than steagles thinks (after all, he's steagles).
*ahem* STEAGLES

also, i haven't said anywhere that turner is an elite or even a very good defender. he's solid. i do think his athleticism is slightly underrated, and i think he doesn't get enough credit for being able to defend PGs, SGs and SFs (which is more valuable for a guy coming off the bench than it is for a starter who plays 38 minutes per game), but i've never said that he is anything more than that as a defender.
   514. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 20, 2014 at 10:10 PM (#4660046)
Quoting a story quoting another story:
The real story: they were doing a drill, a kid in a corner shot a three-pointer and one of the management guys jumped out and challenged his shot from the sideline.

“The only thing that made it a big deal is that it was during practice and I reacted, I mean I went livid, just like if a player messed up in a certain setting I may go livid.”

After practice was over, Hollins went up and said I’m sorry and the man apologized, too. They talked about it.

“Unfortunately it came out that I was trying to show management up but that’s not what happened. There was no conversation between management, person, or the player.”

It was John Hollinger.
   515. RollingWave Posted: February 20, 2014 at 10:36 PM (#4660048)
I think with Turner the problem is if he buys into the role, if he can buy into being a complimentary player he can be quite good, but there is some doubts to that in his stint with Philly. granted, there weren't obvious scoring super stars on those teams, but neither does Indiana..
   516. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 20, 2014 at 11:08 PM (#4660056)

[504] Not a college basketball expert by any means but Beasley was 26-12 in 32 minutes a game on 53/38/77 and Durant was 26/11 in 36 minutes a game on 47/40/82. On the surface it looks like advantage Beasley to me, but one of the college basketball experts can/should account for conference/schedule. Then when you add in how young Durant was he clearly projected better.


Huh, I wouldn't have guessed it was that close. And I thought Beasley was awesome in college. But Durant is just hands down the greatest college basketball player I've ever seen. The kid was unreal at Texas.
   517. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 20, 2014 at 11:19 PM (#4660061)
Wade having one of his random healthy days and LeBron is locked in (other than the TOs) and MIA look like worldbeaters.
   518. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: February 20, 2014 at 11:36 PM (#4660065)
HE BLEEDS BLOOD!
   519. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 20, 2014 at 11:51 PM (#4660067)
The injury play was incredible. Hopefully it's not too bad.
   520. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: February 21, 2014 at 12:03 AM (#4660071)
But Durant is just hands down the greatest college basketball player I've ever seen. The kid was unreal at Texas.


I'll have to assume you were in a coma in the early aughts and missed Derrick Snowden tear #### up.
   521. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 21, 2014 at 12:06 AM (#4660073)
*ahem* STEAGLES

My apologies. :)

I think Turner will be below average (worse than solid, better than a hobbled Granger).

***

I remember that Hollins/Hollinger story - was and am pro-Hollins here, based on my limited knowledge.


   522. steagles Posted: February 21, 2014 at 01:06 AM (#4660084)
After last year, I thought Clark would make a good PF on an up-tempo team. Signing him to play the 3 on a slow team was an awful idea.

Keith Pompey @PompeyOnSixers 1 minute ago
#Sixers waive Earl Clark hours after acquiring the forward from the #Cavs. Read more at: philly.com/philly/blogs/d… #Sixerstalk #NBA


   523. stevegamer Posted: February 21, 2014 at 04:41 AM (#4660105)
With that kind of behavior regarding Clark, there's no reason to give the 76ers any more of my money the rest of this year. Maybe next year, but I doubt it.
   524. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: February 21, 2014 at 09:00 AM (#4660116)

I'll have to assume you were in a coma in the early aughts and missed Derrick Snowden tear #### up.


Derrick Snowden from Villanova?
   525. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 21, 2014 at 09:46 AM (#4660127)
I think that was the joke, yeah.

Surprised about Clark. He's no great shakes but - they could use him.
   526. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 21, 2014 at 10:03 AM (#4660137)
I guess Byron Mullens is a good Spencer Hawes impersonator, and Henry Sims has actually been getting major playing time in the last three weeks. Still, keeping him and waiving Earl Clark?

Danny Granger has NOT been waived. I guess they value his leadership.

Eric Maynor has played in 1 of the last 26 Wiz games, but apparently he is not injured, he just really, really sucks. Or Randy Wittman hates him.
   527. andrewberg Posted: February 21, 2014 at 02:31 PM (#4660348)
I think the Turner trade was good for Indiana. He's clearly more talented than the version of Granger we have seen this year, Vogel is a tremendous coach, and I think it makes sense to give him a chance to figure that out. I understand Lowe's argument that one of Turner's strengths is that he can be an offensive playmaker with relatively poor efficiency, which can be good to lead a second unit. I don't agree with him that it's his only strength. Even if he is a bench player who excels at passing and rebounding from the SF, he can be a sort of rich man's Luke Walton. That's better as a 9th man than what Granger was.

As frustrating as the Wolves have been this year, I think their unstated strategy of playing the string out as long as Love is under contract is probably the way to go. They're probably going to get more value out of him in 1.5 years than they would even if they got a good draft pick and drafted well. As a fan, I would rather keep him for one more year and have a shot at maybe winning one playoff series than give him up now and take my chances with a lottery pick.
   528. steagles Posted: February 21, 2014 at 03:34 PM (#4660418)
As frustrating as the Wolves have been this year, I think their unstated strategy of playing the string out as long as Love is under contract is probably the way to go. They're probably going to get more value out of him in 1.5 years than they would even if they got a good draft pick and drafted well. As a fan, I would rather keep him for one more year and have a shot at maybe winning one playoff series than give him up now and take my chances with a lottery pick.


i know that this is only being looked at in terms of trading kevin love, but what if the wolves blow the whole thing up entirely? if they haven't won with love, and they can't win without him, then instead of just trading love and then trying to retool around whatever's left, what if the wolves traded love...and rubio and pekovic and martin and all of the other pieces they've put in place around them. you take yourself off of the treadmill that is NBA mediocrity and instead of waiting for love to leave, you can begin to rebuild on your own terms.

in related news, the sixers may have as few as 7 players in uniform tonight. they are: michael carter williams, thaddeus young, tony wroten, james anderson, arnett moultrie, lorenzo brown and elliot williams.
   529. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 21, 2014 at 03:49 PM (#4660427)
7 players, 5 of them 6'5" guards.
   530. AROM Posted: February 21, 2014 at 03:54 PM (#4660430)
I know he has now officially retired, but if they throw a 10 day contract at Allen Iverson, is he gonna say no?

That would be good for attendance, draft pick position, and short term roster depth. Everybody wins.
   531. steagles Posted: February 21, 2014 at 04:58 PM (#4660470)
the spread for tonight's sixers game is mavericks -13. the sixers have lost 9 straight games by an average of 20+ points, and they actually managed to get significantly worse yesterday.

   532. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 21, 2014 at 05:36 PM (#4660485)
Really cool/fun point made in Pelton's chat today:
sonia (italy)

advanced stats, modern analytics and smart, moneyball coaches/GM's all agree most efficient way of playing basketball is dunking and/or shooting 3's. Well this has been perfectly clear to me since playing NBA Jam back in 1993, why it took them so long to see?
Kevin Pelton (1:27 PM)

I'm interested in writing about this at some point. Same thing in football, where everybody wants to go for fourth down in Madden. Do we subconsciously know these are better and that's part of why we enjoy them, or is it just a complete coincidence?


Speaking as the guy whose friends never wanted to play him in NBA Street because all he did was take 3s, this makes so much sense and I'm shocked I never looked at it this way before.
   533. steagles Posted: February 21, 2014 at 06:50 PM (#4660533)
sixers announce starting lineup for tonight:

G michael carter williams
G tony wroten
G james anderson
F thaddeus young
F arnett moultrie

Mark Followill @MFollowill about 13 minutes ago
Avail for Philly: MCW, Elliot Williams, James Anderson, Thad Young, Arnett Moultrie, Tony Wroten, Lo Brown, Hollis Thompson.
   534. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 21, 2014 at 07:00 PM (#4660539)
You heard it here first, Brandon Davies plays 36 minutes a game from here on out and the Cavs give him a big contract.
   535. andrewberg Posted: February 21, 2014 at 07:45 PM (#4660561)

Speaking as the guy whose friends never wanted to play him in NBA Street because all he did was take 3s, this makes so much sense and I'm shocked I never looked at it this way before.


I don't want to assert that this is provable or anything, but you get a lot more reps playing video games than coaches ever did coaching real games. You can run back thousands upon thousands of possessions pretty quickly. If one thing works better than another over a big enough sample, you'll probably gradually tend toward that. Of course, the games also do not have the same distribution of likelihoods as real life and the AI of the defense is probably slower to adjust, but who knows?
   536. The District Attorney Posted: February 21, 2014 at 07:56 PM (#4660563)
On the other hand, it's easy to tell from playing a baseball sim game that it's wasteful to use your best reliever solely to get saves in the 9th inning ;-)
   537. Publius Publicola Posted: February 21, 2014 at 08:01 PM (#4660567)
The MOST efficient is getting fouled while dunking or shooting 3 's.
   538. The District Attorney Posted: February 21, 2014 at 08:41 PM (#4660577)
   539. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 21, 2014 at 09:08 PM (#4660583)
[538] Can't wait to hear what Jordan has to say about that.
   540. steagles Posted: February 21, 2014 at 09:14 PM (#4660586)
[538] Can't wait to hear what Jordan has to say about that.
"at least it's not kobe"
   541. smileyy Posted: February 22, 2014 at 04:42 PM (#4660791)
Re: Georgetown, Xavier@Georgetown

Well, it was a good game if you're a Georgetown fan >.<
   542. Publius Publicola Posted: February 22, 2014 at 05:26 PM (#4660806)
Duke/Syracuse should be an interesting game tonight. Neither team can afford to lose two games in a row.
   543. nick swisher hygiene Posted: February 22, 2014 at 11:27 PM (#4660909)
are you a Tar Heel guy, Publius, or do I remember wrong?

I kinda enjoyed Boeheim's effort to upset the delicate ecosystem of ACC officiating......that call sucked.
   544. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 22, 2014 at 11:34 PM (#4660910)
533/STEAGLES: I think Anderson should mostly play three anyway, though he seems hell bent on proving that his best position is somewhere in the Baltic.

Okay Syracuse fans - you guys have been off for several games now (predating the BC debacle) and I haven't seen any of them - what gives?
   545. Spivey Posted: February 22, 2014 at 11:44 PM (#4660914)
Syracuse is a very inconsistent offensive team. I also think their defense at the top of the zone isn't as tough as it has been in many years. In other words, I think they were more overplaying their talent early in the season than underperforming the last several games.
   546. Publius Publicola Posted: February 23, 2014 at 10:08 AM (#4660962)
Coonan is their designated bomber but he has been getting D'd up pretty well and can't create anything off the dribble. Their other guys are pretty god but nothing sensational.

I am a tarheel guy, swish.
   547. Publius Publicola Posted: February 23, 2014 at 10:10 AM (#4660963)
And I agree with Spivey their zone is effective in the interior but less so outside.
   548. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 23, 2014 at 01:20 PM (#4661037)
Jason Collins will be in uniform tonight for the Nets.
   549. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 23, 2014 at 01:54 PM (#4661052)
Funny LeBron story/video.
   550. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 23, 2014 at 02:11 PM (#4661057)
548: I figured that the loser in the race to sign Big Baby was gonna land him, which was always going to be Brooklyn.
Not sure why NY never gave Udrih a real shot at a role. Put him at the two alongside a scoring PG and he can really help you on the second team.
   551. rr Posted: February 23, 2014 at 02:52 PM (#4661074)
I think Kaman actually suits the Clippers' needs a little better than Davis does, but there has been no talk of the Lakers buying The Caveman out, and of course Davis has history with Rivers.
   552. rr Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4661091)
A Staten Island man has been arrested for allegedly threatening the life of New York Knicks owner James Dolan, according to published reports.

John Giamella, 19, was arrested on Friday and charged with aggravated harassment for allegedly making threats via his Twitter account against Dolan, the chairman of Madison Square Garden and owner of the New York Rangers.

"James Dolan, it's officially time to die," Giamella allegedly tweeted according to reports. That was followed by the tweet, "Death to James Dolan," police said, according to reports.

Giamella also allegedly posted photos showing himself naked and holding a gun, according to reports.

According to reports, the head of security at Madison Square Garden picked up on the threats and alerted police.


http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/10506685/man-arrested-threats-james-dolan-new-york-knicks
   553. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 23, 2014 at 03:49 PM (#4661107)
551/RR: Yes and yes.
   554. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 23, 2014 at 05:25 PM (#4661128)
Kaman needs to stay on the Lakers.

Sometimes Kaman, Sacre and Jordan Hill sit next to each other on the bench, and they look like one of those gangs from a 1980s/90s movie that is both unrealistically diverse and unrealistically edgy and Xtreme.
   555. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 23, 2014 at 08:44 PM (#4661180)
Call me crazy, but I think a potential 2nd round IND-TOR 2/3 matchup could be very, very interesting.
   556. GregD Posted: February 23, 2014 at 09:34 PM (#4661200)
A Staten Island man has been arrested for allegedly threatening the life of New York Knicks owner James Dolan, according to published reports.

John Giamella, 19, was arrested on Friday and charged with aggravated harassment for allegedly making threats via his Twitter account against Dolan, the chairman of Madison Square Garden and owner of the New York Rangers.

"James Dolan, it's officially time to die," Giamella allegedly tweeted according to reports. That was followed by the tweet, "Death to James Dolan," police said, according to reports.

Giamella also allegedly posted photos showing himself naked and holding a gun, according to reports.

According to reports, the head of security at Madison Square Garden picked up on the threats and alerted police.
Is there no lawyer willing to make a justifiable homicide case?
   557. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 24, 2014 at 11:32 AM (#4661387)
Call me crazy, but I think a potential 2nd round IND-TOR 2/3 matchup could be very, very interesting.


I dunno. I see the Raps do have a big win against Indy already this year, but I don't see it. I think Indy should take care of them fairly easily.

I also think the Pacers are going to keep the 1 seed, so Toronto would have to drop to 4 (which I think is very possible).
   558. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 24, 2014 at 11:55 AM (#4661399)
As much as I love Paul George, I think IND is a team that looks better than it is because of how well they matchup with MIA. TOR probably won't be able to score on them, but I don't think IND will be able to score on TOR either and it could be a low scoring series where a couple plays here and there swing things. It's premature for all this, but it just caught my eye while checking out the standings last night.
   559. jmurph Posted: February 24, 2014 at 12:31 PM (#4661431)
I really enjoyed the Rockets-Suns game last night. It probably wasn't good (all-around basketball), and the Suns seem like an obvious first-round exit, but that was an entertaining game. Makes me wish Phoenix had been able to turn Okafor's contract into something at the deadline, I think they're going to regret that.
   560. jmurph Posted: February 24, 2014 at 01:03 PM (#4661458)
Yikes, Nene possibly done for the season. That's too bad, the Wiz are having a fine season.
   561. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 24, 2014 at 01:07 PM (#4661461)
Gerald Green is still useful. Hitting threes, hitting midrange j's, scoring points, playing decent man-on d.
   562. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 24, 2014 at 01:16 PM (#4661466)
As much as I love Paul George, I think IND is a team that looks better than it is because of how well they matchup with MIA. TOR probably won't be able to score on them, but I don't think IND will be able to score on TOR either and it could be a low scoring series where a couple plays here and there swing things. It's premature for all this, but it just caught my eye while checking out the standings last night.

I could see all that. But Indiana's defense really is that good. To pull an old answer template stand-by from a Hollinger chat, the Raps are 7th in Def Eff, but are closer to being last than they are first - the Pacers are just that far ahead of everyone. IOW, I think that maybe the Pacers are better suited to beat Miami than the Western contenders on paper. However, I just am not impressed with anyone besides Miami or Indiana in the East; even with the Pacers offensive struggles. Perhaps the games will be closer than they should be, but I don't think any team in the East (outside of a magical rejuvenation run out of the Nets) that is going to make Miami or Indiana really sweat.
   563. steagles Posted: February 24, 2014 at 05:34 PM (#4661645)
is this as impressive as it seems like it is?
   564. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 24, 2014 at 05:54 PM (#4661653)
Yes. There's at least a few interim coaches in there (Bill Berry*, Pete Meyers; both 0-2; ) that only coached a few games. I think he does it in order, too.

*Not only do I not remember him coaching the Bulls for those 2 games, I don't even remember him at all.
   565. steagles Posted: February 24, 2014 at 07:06 PM (#4661709)
Looking back to 2005 when the draft expanded to 60 picks because of the addition of the Charlotte Bobcats, we find that the final five picks of the first round (Nos. 26 to 30) have substantially outperformed the first five picks of the second round (Nos. 31 to 35). The late first-rounders have yielded 246.4 wins over that time, an average annual EWA of 0.8 (think Darrell Arthur) whereas the early second-rounders have contributed just 153.4 wins, an average annual EWA of 0.5 (think Steve Novak). What this means is that late first-rounders have produced nearly 100 more wins than the second-rounders picked right after them.
   566. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: February 24, 2014 at 07:59 PM (#4661735)
[565] I wonder how much of that is because of talent and how much of that is because the 1Rs get more chances (both because of the mandated contracts and because of pedigree).
   567. vagab0nd (no longer an outl13r) Posted: February 24, 2014 at 08:06 PM (#4661739)
566 - in addition to that, how much of that difference is because those teams that are drafting late, are better teams and, typically, better at identifying & developing talent?
   568. nick swisher hygiene Posted: February 24, 2014 at 09:23 PM (#4661766)
so if the Bucks put up 43 in a quarter on your court, that's gotta be a bad sign, right?
   569. kpelton Posted: February 24, 2014 at 09:28 PM (#4661771)
I wonder how much of that is because of talent and how much of that is because the 1Rs get more chances (both because of the mandated contracts and because of pedigree).

If replacement level is set correctly, this shouldn't really matter much. I do think EWA sets it a tad low.

in addition to that, how much of that difference is because those teams that are drafting late, are better teams and, typically, better at identifying & developing talent?

I don't know if that's a big factor since both sets of picks tend to get traded very frequently.

I think the biggest explanation for the discrepancy is that some of the international players drafted early in the second round don't come over for years, if at all. That's true at this point of at least one pick from 31-35 every draft going back to 2009.
   570. RollingWave Posted: February 24, 2014 at 09:33 PM (#4661773)
Anyone putting 43 in a quarter on you is a problem.

As for 1R 2R, it needs to be taken into account that 2R makes even less, and it's contract is more flexible than late 1R, which is the bigger difference here IMHO, yes late 1R still has a better chance of hitting, but hitting on a 2R is very very beneficial for your cap management
   571. kpelton Posted: February 24, 2014 at 10:19 PM (#4661793)
The one interesting wrinkle to second-round contracts is that you have to choose between a cheaper fourth year or having matching rights after year three. The first-round scale contract offers the potential of both.
   572. steagles Posted: February 24, 2014 at 11:19 PM (#4661832)
The one interesting wrinkle to second-round contracts is that you have to choose between a cheaper fourth year or having matching rights after year three. The first-round scale contract offers the potential of both.
you don't have to.

you could always choose to just sign a 2nd round pick to a 1-year contract, so that you have to spend 3MM against the cap the next offseason to keep someone who shouldn't have even been drafted in the first place in a year where you've gone out of your way to create as much cap room as possible.


to lavoy:
i hate to see you go, but i love to watch you leave.

   573. bibigon Posted: February 24, 2014 at 11:51 PM (#4661842)
This is more speculative, since it presumes that the NBA draft advisory board is very good at their jobs, but one more cause of the 25-30 vs. 31-35 thing might be that coaches typically advise their players to go pro if they are going to be first round picks, and come back if they're not.

In other words, depending on how reliable those projections are, there might be a real difference in talent between 30 and 31.
   574. bibigon Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:20 AM (#4661855)
One more thing - this isn't a very big sample of years, and down far down the draft, any substantial "hit" is going to have a big effect. Using win shares instead of EWA for instance, David Lee (taken 30th), makes up ~12% of all total value there. That's a 23% swing if he'd gone one pick later.
   575. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 25, 2014 at 12:47 AM (#4661863)
572/STEAGLES - you made me chuckle; with you, not at you.
573/bibigon - they aren't that reliable.
one thought i had was: what's the asik/pekovic effect - guys who go high 2nd not in the first because of their contract demands / status? (in part w/ kevin's 569, in part with determining the average "true talent" per spot)
569/kpelton - i'm not sure if the replacement level w/ ewa is too low or if we just aren't doing a good enough job at gauging what 'talent' is at the margin (defense, pick setting, etc...) - probably both.
   576. steagles Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:37 AM (#4661877)
just embracing it.

and then w/r/t 1v2 round picks:
i'd say the unit of measure is ill-suited to the purpose for which it's being used. a mediocre player on a good team will be worth more wins than a mediocre player on a good team, and for as often as picks do tend to be moved, i don't believe that happens so often as to account for the entirety of the difference.

also, 1st round picks are guaranteed, so while a 1st round pick like james anderson will eventually get cut, he'll generally stick around for 2 years before it happens. contrast that with, say 2nd round pick lorenzo brown, who got cut before he played a game for the team that drafted him, and i think that makes up a sizable chunk of the difference.
   577. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:46 AM (#4661881)
Say what you want about Melo but he is certainly not mailing it in right now despite the Knicks nightmarish season.
   578. tshipman Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:48 AM (#4661882)
Really interesting article on Grantland about the Rio Grande Valley Vipers:

ESPN stat guru Kevin Pelton has described their style of play as “the most extreme professional basketball in America,” and their pace is historically fast: At 109 possessions per game, the Vipers play far faster than any NBA team in the past two decades, including Mike D’Antoni’s Seven Seconds or Less Suns, who averaged around 98 possessions per game. The NBA has sped up since then, with the league average now at 96.5, but even this year’s fastest team, the Philadelphia 76ers, at 102.6 possessions per game, are tortoises compared with RGV.

The Vipers also fire an unprecedented barrage of 3s, taking nearly half their shots from behind the line and averaging 45 3-point attempts per game. The Rockets, who lead the NBA in 3-point attempts, shoot only 26 per game, good for about a third of their shots.


It has always seemed to me that these systems are very viable in the regular season, but run into problems in the playoffs if they run into a bad shooting game or turn the ball over a bunch. The issue with running a hypothetical turbocharged SSoL offense is the presumption that you will struggle in the playoffs.
   579. smileyy Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:18 AM (#4661888)
Say what you want about Melo but he is certainly not mailing it in right now despite the Knicks nightmarish season.


Isn't that a hallmark of a player like Melo? The seasonal equivalent of garbage time is his time to shine.
   580. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: February 25, 2014 at 07:49 AM (#4661915)
Ray Felton arrested on felony gun charges. The '13-'14 Knicks everybody!
   581. stanmvp48 Posted: February 25, 2014 at 09:28 AM (#4661933)
Combined records of PHIL/MIL going into last night's game: 25 and 86. I wonder if that is a record.
   582. AROM Posted: February 25, 2014 at 10:13 AM (#4661957)
Not sure what the record is, but on 1/30/1973 the 76ers lost by one point to the Buffalo Braves. After the game, their combined record was 21-85. That season of futility resulted in the first Doug Collins era.
   583. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 25, 2014 at 11:22 AM (#4662025)
just embracing it.

Thanks for the better quality of the first one. That play was floating around last night (but a much poorer quality) as a great defensive play by the Greek Freak instead of a missed dunk (to be fair to Giannis, it was a helluva effort to get close - which may have impacted the attempt - and getting up afterwards and blocking the next shot was great).

This was the best .gif from last night though.

Say what you want about Melo but he is certainly not mailing it in right now despite the Knicks nightmarish season.

Offensively, you mean, right? Though I think the defensive scheme also leaves a lot to be desired...

Ray Felton arrested on felony gun charges. The '13-'14 Knicks everybody!

This is good news though in a way, right?

   584. kpelton Posted: February 25, 2014 at 01:53 PM (#4662155)
i'm not sure if the replacement level w/ ewa is too low or if we just aren't doing a good enough job at gauging what 'talent' is at the margin (defense, pick setting, etc...) - probably both.

I say that because if you go through the math, EWA says a team of replacement-level players would win ~0 games, and that's not realistic given the history of the league and the observed performance of replacement-level guys, some of whom are actually pretty good.
   585. The District Attorney Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:07 PM (#4662176)
This is good news though in a way, right?
It is insofar as if he's suspended, his salary is halved against the cap.

But:

a) Especially given that Silver just came into office and seems to be trying to establish a "I'm more conciliatory than Stern was" persona, I would predict that: Felton won't be suspended until he pleads guilty/is convicted; if the jail term is lengthy, the suspension wpn't be for the entire length of the jail term; his contract will not be voided

b) Although NY gun laws are extremely strict, I still think that, if there weren't extenuating circumstances such as using the gun to threaten people (which remains to be seen), the judge won't want to totally throw the book at a first-time offender

c) It presumably ends any trade value he'd have, even just as a contract to flip around

Article by a sports law talkin' guy
   586. AROM Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:16 PM (#4662186)
Although NY gun laws are extremely strict, I still think that, if there weren't extenuating circumstances such as using the gun to threaten people (which remains to be seen), the judge won't want to totally throw the book at a first-time offender


Not sure if Plaxico Burress had a previous record or threatened anyone, but the only damage he caused was to his own buttocks. Still ended up doing time.
   587. smileyy Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:22 PM (#4662192)
WA says a team of replacement-level players would win ~0 games, and that's not realistic given the history of the league


I'm not sure that's not right. The Charlotte Bobcats went 7-59, but had players who were around league average:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHA/2012.html

I'm not sure that a all-replacement-level team doesn't go winless, or below .050 winning percentage.
   588. smileyy Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:23 PM (#4662193)
My guess is that the NBA is going to be pretty twitchy about guns and gun-law violations.

The league's interest isn't "Don't do illegal things", it's "Don't look bad"
   589. Kurt Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:32 PM (#4662205)
Not sure if Plaxico Burress had a previous record or threatened anyone, but the only damage he caused was to his own buttocks. Still ended up doing time.


He definitely didn't threaten anyone, and I don't think he had priors.
   590. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:40 PM (#4662219)
The difference between Felton and Burress is that Plax had his on his person, concealed, in public and it discharged. Felton's was at home and didn't go off*.

I also don't think the NBA has as much leeway, or authority, on disciplining players as the NFL. However, if he's convicted of a felony I'd guess the Knicks might possibly have an out on a contract they already wanted to dump.

*It's probably worth noting Felton's wife called the cops on him, and that they're going through a divorce. There may or may not have been threats (I don't want to make light of that situation, especially if there were), but Felton might have a little more public sympathy that Burress (Bloomberg made his shooting/arrest a pretty big story).
   591. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 25, 2014 at 02:52 PM (#4662232)
Perkins out 6 weeks after groin surgery. The ESPN article says the Thunder are 0-3 without Perkins this year.

Jimmer close to buyout. Seems like there are a lot more buyouts this year, or is that me? (Davis, Jimmer, Udoh, Gordon, Artest, Jamison, who am I forgetting?)
   592. smileyy Posted: February 25, 2014 at 03:38 PM (#4662277)
[589] I'll save my thoughts on the first clause of your post for the politics thread(*)

(*) I am not going to post in the politics thread.
   593. AROM Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:13 PM (#4662306)
WA says a team of replacement-level players would win ~0 games, and that's not realistic given the history of the league


In basketball I basically treat absolute win shares and wins above replacement as the same thing. It may not be exactly right, maybe the replacement team wins 5 games or so, but it's close enough.
   594. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:14 PM (#4662307)
Isn't that a hallmark of a player like Melo? The seasonal equivalent of garbage time is his time to shine.


It drives me a little bit crazy how warped the dialogue around Melo has become. Offense and defense, effort or laziness, everything has become fair game as evidence of his morally undermined game. The terms will accept nearly any argument you put to it. He's a flawed talent, sure, but he's a damn fine scorer with a skill set that can be very efficient in the right system. Defensively, I'm more and more convinced that anyone with NBA-level athleticism and some spatial awareness can be part of a great defense, although only a very few can anchor one. That is to say, as a fan of talented guys being put in positions to succeed, I want to see Melo get out of NY and land on a strong team.

   595. The District Attorney Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:20 PM (#4662317)
Bloomberg made [Plaxico's] shooting/arrest a pretty big story.
Well, Dolan owns Newsday; the Knicks suck, so the News won't be sympathetic; and the Knicks suck and Felton is a black guy with a gun, so the Post definitely won't be sympathetic.¹ And hell, the fans won't be sympathetic because the Knicks suck and he's not helping. So much like a lesser A-Rod, NYC will be rooting for the team to be able to void a bad contract by a disliked player.

I think the big difference between Plaxico and Felton is, as the SI article puts it:
While Burress had no logical way of arguing he didn't possess a gun used to shoot himself, Felton's connections to the Belgian pistol are less obvious.
So Felton is going to be able to mount a credible legal case, which is mostly why I don't think Silver will do what Stern did with Gilbert Arenas and suspend him before the justice system renders judgment on him. And although it is true that...
The league's interest isn't "Don't do illegal things", it's "Don't look bad"
... it's also true, as we've seen with PED in baseball vs. football, that somewhat paradoxically, a big part of "looking bad" is when the league calls attention to the infraction by doing something about it. So in between that and the desires not to brand an innocent man or antagonize the union as the first act of a commissionership, I don't think anything official happens with this for quite a while.

¹ I'm just joking around about Newsday -- I've found them to treat the Knicks quite fairly.
   596. smileyy Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:27 PM (#4662323)
But isn't the argument against Melo that he won't fit into a system? That the system is Melo-ball, and we've seen how well that does?
   597. AROM Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:35 PM (#4662331)
It drives me a little bit crazy how warped the dialogue around Melo has become. Offense and defense, effort or laziness, everything has become fair game as evidence of his morally undermined game. The terms will accept nearly any argument you put to it. He's a flawed talent, sure, but he's a damn fine scorer with a skill set that can be very efficient in the right system.


Melo is not the same gunner he was 2 years ago, shooting .430 and .335 from 3. He's shooting .454 overall, a career best .426 from 3, and getting to the line 7 times per game where he shoots a high percentage. Also a career high 8.6 rebounds per game.

Great player having a great year. The expectations are just a bit too high. If he's getting flack, it's because he's not as good as Lebron or Durant.
   598. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:35 PM (#4662332)
There's a lot of debate on Bulls blogs and what not on whether Melo would fit on the Bulls. It usually comes down to "If you think the Bulls are better without Melo, you're crazy" and "Look at the Knicks!". We talked before that if the Bulls could add Melo to the existing team and if he bought it, it would be about the ideal fit for him. But the first part isn't likely (they'd lose Gibson and need a PF - or SF if Melo is your 4 - in almost every possible scenario), and the 2nd is debated and unknowable.
   599. AROM Posted: February 25, 2014 at 04:43 PM (#4662338)
But isn't the argument against Melo that he won't fit into a system? That the system is Melo-ball, and we've seen how well that does?


I think it might be possible. You'd need better management than the Knicks have shown to get it done though. You could probably build a team around him that looks like the team that won a title around Dirk.

But your margin for error is small, and you have to be more creative about it than just signing the same exact players that worked in 2011 (Chandler, Kidd) as they get older.

More likely a team build around Carmelo looks like the Hawk teams built around Dominique Wilkins in the 80's. Good teams, but short of championship quality.
   600. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: February 25, 2014 at 05:05 PM (#4662358)
Maybe I'm just being persnickety, but I'm not wild about the term "a team built around X" in this sort of counterfactual. There's a lot of luck and circumstance behind the quality of players a team is able to acquire. Do they have draft picks? Rookie-scale talent? Free agents? Trading pieces? It seems like a vague "plausible team X" is just an intuition of the average talent available for the available salary, which is simplistic. Since we're discussing Melo's ceiling, why not look at actual great teams featuring a big scoring 3? It's got its own flaws as a thought experiment, but "Melo plus generic talent" does too. Let him ride out with Ibaka and Westbrook, instead, and I think you have a contender, if not quite the monster the Thunder have been this season.

Personally, I want him to go to the Spurs. That's only half a joke.
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