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Wednesday, January 02, 2013

OT NBA Monthly Thread—January 2013

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: the fiscal cliff and Civil War generals.

baudib Posted: January 02, 2013 at 01:16 AM | 1049 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, off-topic

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   501. Squash Posted: January 21, 2013 at 03:26 AM (#4351647)
$525 million for the Kings. Hoo boy.
   502. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: January 21, 2013 at 04:01 AM (#4351650)
I hate/am completely confused/frustrated by McHale's handling of Lin, but I've mentioned that enough on this thread.

Big win for DEN over OKC, but I didn't catch any of the game.

[501]
@KingJames So the Kings getting sold for 525M!! And the owners ain't making no money huh? What the hell we have a lookout for. Get the hell out of here
@KingJames #lockout! My bad. U know what I meant
@KingJames And from what I hear the 525M isn't even the whole % of the team! Smh. One thing is I can't hate on their hustle though. Crazy
   503. Famous Original Joe C Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:27 AM (#4351685)
I thought McHale did well as an interim with the Wolves a few years ago in terms of optimizing offense. As good as he was defensively, he did not coac it well.

Well, he can't use his weird Frenkenstein-esque arms to coach it.

I also loved the Lebron tweets. He's right.
   504. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 21, 2013 at 12:18 PM (#4351738)
Following up on my post from Saturday:

I didn't mention yesterday, but Deng's injury doesn't sound great. It's not terrible, but he's going to miss some time (although they officially won't even say he's not playing tonight when it's clear he won't). He had tweaked the hamstring before, and looks like he re-pulled it. He might struggle with that all year. I hate to see how the Bulls offense is going to look with him out too. I like Jimmy Butler and think he can do some nice things, but he's not at all reliable offensively yet.


Bulls scored 12pts in the 2nd quarter and 13 in the 3rd. Somehow they exploded for 29 in the 4th with a Robinson/Bellinelli/Butler/Gibson/Boozer lineup. Forced to game into OT (it was their 3rd straight OT game), but ran out of gas and lost by 3. I wasn't very impressed by what I saw out of Memphis, but I couldn't exactly put my finger on one thing that was wrong.

Butler actually put up a pretty decent Deng impression, too: 48min (of course), 18pts, 8reb, 3ast, 3stl, 1TO and he held Gay to bad shooting night (6 of 19). Big story was that Thibs benched Noah for the last 25 minutes of the game - including subbing in Nazr Mohammed instead of Noah when Gibson fouled out. There really hasn't been anything explained since (Thibs doesn't say anything and Noah hasn't talked).

Bulls/Lakers tonight. Probably will be ugly to watch.
   505. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: January 21, 2013 at 12:36 PM (#4351747)
Moses, what is up with thibs and his benchings like that? Is Noah making big mistakes on the court to cause this? (im not seeing it if it's the case).

With Butlers play against Mem. I hope he plays more. Also get teague on the court a lot more I am sick of robinson

   506. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 21, 2013 at 02:37 PM (#4351853)
I don't know that Thibs has a history of this (Skiles did it all the time), at least not with the star players. It just seemed weird at the time that he was possibly giving up a chance at a win - very unlike him.

Teague isn't ready yet. It's painfully obvious when he's forced into games (like when he was subbing in for defense against Boston once Hinrich fouled out). I think he could develop into a decent player eventually, but he isn't helping them now. I understand how NateRob can be frustrating - but you gotta take the good with the bad.
   507. PJ Martinez Posted: January 21, 2013 at 03:56 PM (#4351914)
"I've got to either find the right combination, the right guys, or we're going to get some guys out of here. It's the bottom line. Because this group right now, they are not playing right." -- Rivers after the Celtics loss to the Pistons
   508. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: January 21, 2013 at 06:48 PM (#4352076)
Shumpert has been working hard in the offseason (sorry if this was linked earlier).

With endorsement from the coach:

Coach Mike Woodson, who is bald but has spent years working on his famous goatee, laughed when asked about Shumpert’s hair.

“Everybody has their choice,” Woodson said. “He’s a good-looking dude. If that’s what he wants to wear, so be it. As long as he plays well is all I care about. I just think he wants to be taller.”
   509. PJ Martinez Posted: January 21, 2013 at 07:31 PM (#4352114)
Zach Lowe breaks down the Josh Smith possibilities, concludes that he will either stay in Atlanta or get traded to Houston (which has cap space).
   510. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 21, 2013 at 08:04 PM (#4352148)
those seem like the most likely outcomes to me as well. (pelton also had houston as the most likely destination)
   511. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:20 PM (#4352197)
Deng officially out vs the Lakers. Not a surprise.

Thibs said Rose will likely get cleared for full contact practice this week.
   512. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:49 PM (#4352202)
That is good news, I wonder how much longer he will be out for.
   513. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:02 PM (#4352208)
Deng officially out vs the Lakers. Not a surprise.
They're not going to need him. Kobe was pretty candid about having tired legs for yesterday.
   514. Tripon Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:04 PM (#4352210)
Its getting to the point where you might as well write this year off for the Lakers. About time to see what you need to get next year going, like finally trading Pau Gasol for what you can get, seeing if Dwight is interested in coming back, and what to do with MDA.
   515. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:27 PM (#4352225)
Its getting to the point where you might as well write this year off for the Lakers.
"Getting to that point"? You clearly haven't been reading my posts!
   516. The District Attorney Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:31 PM (#4352228)
The problem, though, is that I bet Dwight's interest in coming back is correlated with how well the team plays the rest of the year.
   517. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:49 PM (#4352242)
The Denver-OKC game was an odd one. The Thunder had 48 free throws, Nuggets 34. And it was in Denver. Westbrook shot 17 of them, but was very aggressive all game long. Durant shot 21, including 2 when someone sneezed on him. JK, but it was pretty clear you couldn't touch him without a foul called. He was also dribbling at the top of the key at the start of OT, making no effort to shoot, and got bumped. 2 free throws.
That said, the Thunder got called for illegal picks on 2 of their last 3 possessions, allowing Denver to hang on.

The Nuggets played aggressive and played tough the entire game. It was a legit win, and with the fouls called as unbalanced as they were, they could have just have easily done it on the road.

Of course, means absolutely nothing for when they take the floor the next game.
   518. Tripon Posted: January 21, 2013 at 11:13 PM (#4352264)
516. The District Attorney Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:31 PM (#4352228)
The problem, though, is that I bet Dwight's interest in coming back is correlated with how well the team plays the rest of the year.


Which teams have the cash and room to give him what he wants though? The new CBA basically makes it hard to get a player with Dwight's financial demands.
   519. The District Attorney Posted: January 21, 2013 at 11:19 PM (#4352268)
The Denver-OKC game was an odd one.
An opposing player blocked the mascot's shots. That is definitely odd.
   520. nick swisher hygiene Posted: January 21, 2013 at 11:49 PM (#4352294)
517--Durant's ability to draw fouls: era-dependent and therefore a weakness, or actually another aspect of his greatness?
   521. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:07 AM (#4352301)
Bulls radio team just killing howard on his free throw shooting
   522. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:10 AM (#4352304)
The criticism is well-earned. Unlike Shaq, even if he wasn't hitting his free throws Shaq could still get to the rim with a variety of moves. Howard is no Shaq.
   523. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:12 AM (#4352308)
varejao out for the season; blood clot in right lung
poor guy - this was his shot at being an all star (14.1/14.4/3.4 - career highs for each were last year (also in 25 games) 10.8/11.5/1.7)
   524. andrewberg Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:18 AM (#4352310)
517--Durant's ability to draw fouls: era-dependent and therefore a weakness, or actually another aspect of his greatness?


He is better at it than many of his peers, so even if we live in a FT friendly era, it is still a strength.
   525. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:21 AM (#4352311)
[524] Aren't FTs down a lot?
   526. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:25 AM (#4352313)
compared to when?
   527. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:32 AM (#4352318)
Chris Duhon. Yuck. Forgot about him. Didn't realize it was that bad in LA.
   528. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:33 AM (#4352319)
An opposing player blocked the mascot's shots. That is definitely odd.
Watching the game, I was wondering why the Denver crowd was giving it to Westbrook whenever he touched the ball. This explains much.
   529. smileyy Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:36 AM (#4352320)
I thought James Harden was singlehandedly raising the FT rate of the league.
   530. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:45 AM (#4352322)
i had an error in my fta/g estimate for this year, so i'll instead answer the earlier question - yes, this is a low fta era and we're on pace to set an all-time low, nipping last year's record. thank you three ball (on a pace to crush the record for that - 20.0 3pta, 22.4 fta)...
yearly averages
   531. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:50 AM (#4352325)
isn't duhon playing as well as you might expect him to? 37% from three, atr of 4.37, willing positional defender, no other skills, closer to replacement level than adequacy (per of only 9.2, simple rating of -5.6, but an ortg of 118 because of the lack of mistakes)
   532. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:59 AM (#4352333)
The Lakers are playing as well as can be expected, but the Bulls are on fire from the arc, and Kobe wasn't kidding about those dead legs.
   533. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 01:09 AM (#4352338)
looking at 82games, here are the lakers' simple ratings: kobe +13.8, dwight +5.9, mwp +4.4, gasol +1.7, nash +0.6, jamison -1.6, hill -2.5, jodie -2.9, blake -4.6, duhon -5.6, morris -5.9, clark -6.9, ebanks -13.8, sacre -19.2, djo -44.9
kobe's 3rd in the league behind durant and lebron; last is austin rivers ... wow, has he been bad (per of 5.6 and he's not in there for his defense)
   534. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:31 AM (#4352372)
Primer RT:

Kobe Bryant ?@kobebryant
Beethovens Moonlight Sonata calms me down when I reach my breaking point #relaxandfocus pic.twitter.com/8GkSU2qd
   535. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:16 AM (#4352407)
trade (salary dump)!
Memphis trades Speights to CLE for Leuer and Selby.
   536. Spivey Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:32 AM (#4352418)
What's the story with Leuer this year? He actually played well for Milwaukee last year, and looked like a guy that was going to be a completely serviceable backup.
   537. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:33 AM (#4352421)
Correction!
Marreese Speights, Josh Selby, Wayne Ellington and a future draft pick to the Cavs for Jon Leuer. (rotoworld)
   538. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:40 AM (#4352424)
I haven't watched them - but: his performance looked a teeny bit fluky last year and, as bad as he's been for Cleveland (a team that acquired him late and didn't really have a role for him), he's been really solid in his 10 games with Canton in the D-League (19.5 pts, 12.3 reb). I do think it would behoove him to work on his three ball.
   539. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:57 AM (#4352473)
isn't duhon playing as well as you might expect him to? 37% from three, atr of 4.37, willing positional defender, no other skills, closer to replacement level than adequacy (per of only 9.2, simple rating of -5.6, but an ortg of 118 because of the lack of mistakes)

Something that Bulls, Knicks, Lakers and Magic fans (if Magic fans existed) all agree on is that Duhon is pretty much awful to watch. He's not great, and he's not really terrible at any one thing, but he's also not really good at anything. I posted that after he took a 30ft 3 with 5 seconds left on the shot clock.

The Lakers are playing as well as can be expected, but the Bulls are on fire from the arc, and Kobe wasn't kidding about those dead legs.

Most of the made 3's were wide open. The Bulls don't get many open looks, which is why they make so few. The Lakers defense and defensive rotation was terrible (a lot of that was Howard last night). The fluke last night was Hinrich, but Nash was "defending" him and Hinrich kept easily shaking him.
   540. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:00 PM (#4352477)
rumored new grizz: Sasha Vujacic, Delonte West, and Bill Walker.
   541. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:51 PM (#4352534)
Mike Monroe ?@Monroe_SA
Why did Kawhi Leonard leave Spurs-76ers game? Sez he cut his kneecap wide open on a nail sticking up in the court after a fall


Yikes.
   542. steagles Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:54 PM (#4352538)
Yikes.
homecourt advantage ft(blown 7 point lead in the 4th quarter)
   543. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:57 PM (#4352539)
so what do the nba experts here think of milwaukee?

i am no b-ball guy but from a distance i see some talent and a lot of grinders which in pro sports can make you .500 because most pro athletes don't give a full effort every game. if your team does that's an edge

   544. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 22, 2013 at 01:00 PM (#4352543)
Kobe wasn't kidding about those dead legs.

BTW, I want to give some credit to Jimmy Butler here again. He played another great defensive game, 43 mins (Kobe played 42; I don't think Kobe was on the court at all w/o Butler hounding him). He's had good defensive stretches this year also against bigger guys like Melo and LeBron. I said before he should get more minutes, and he can play the 2, so he should play with Deng and not exclusively be his backup.

I was also amused that Steve Kerr fell into the "Hinrich looks like he should be a good shooter" trap.
   545. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 22, 2013 at 01:05 PM (#4352549)
so what do the nba experts here think of milwaukee?

I'm not a fan, and haven't been for a while. Boylan was an awful interim here in Chicago (and I wasn't a fan of Skiles by the end either). I've been one of the more vocal anti-fans of Jennings for a while; never really liked Ellis and think he's a terrible fit. I like Sanders, and there's some other acceptable but not necessarily noteworthy pieces. They have 2 other grindier teams in their division that are also more talented, but there's enough dreck in the East to stay around .500.

Seeing as how Philly keeps shooting themselves in Andrew Bynum's knee, it looks like that have a clearish path to make the playoffs. But they'll be lucky to win a game once there.

Others here like them more than me though.
   546. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 22, 2013 at 01:13 PM (#4352560)
i don't know how someone looks at the effort jennings gives and doesn't at least appreciate how hard he's working

he's a flawed player. how can he not be when he's maybe 5'9" in a game filled with people 6'7", etc
   547. andrewberg Posted: January 22, 2013 at 01:41 PM (#4352590)
Marreese Speights, Josh Selby, Wayne Ellington and a future draft pick to the Cavs for Jon Leuer. (rotoworld)


It sounds like that plus the prorated minimum salaries they will take on will keep them under the tax for the rest of the year, relevantly meaning that Gay is probably off the trade market until at least the summer. In that respect, it is a good trade. Even though I think Gay is probably a little overrated, they are better off keeping that starting 5 intact for a playoff run. On top of that, they don't disrupt their bench rotation all that much except for Ellington, on whom they probably sold high anyway. It isn't so much that this trade was brilliant, but it prevented them from doing something much more damaging.
   548. smileyy Posted: January 22, 2013 at 01:42 PM (#4352591)
Huh...Jennings never had any pre-draft measurements. I suspect the fact that he's rail-thin makes him look shorter than he is, but I can't imagine he's 5'9". I'd guess 6'0.5" in shoes.
   549. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 22, 2013 at 02:25 PM (#4352630)
smiles

boy he looks short in person. if he's 6 feet all i'm a hobbit
   550. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 22, 2013 at 02:34 PM (#4352649)
boy he looks short in person. if he's 6 feet all i'm a hobbit

Harv, you should quit your day jobs and become a straight man.
   551. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:21 PM (#4352731)
Looks like Sasha is staying overseas and Memphis will sign Chris Johnson (the swingman, not the lanky pivot with MIN). He's a three point specialist in his first year out of Dayton who avoids mistakes and accrued a surprising number of steals for Rio Grande in the D-League. I don't consider him an NBA talent and am surprised they tabbed him (though they do need stretch guys).

The pick going to CLE has similar lottery protections to that of the HOU/TOR deal - it's a non-high lottery pick. Nice job Cleveland!
   552. Tripon Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:28 PM (#4352739)
Prep players who want to be drafted by NBA should seriously consider playing overseas. It'll help weed out those who are serious about their career vs. the people who can't handle being a professional for instance. Less chances of drafting a bust like Michael Olawakandi for instance.
   553. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:43 PM (#4352752)
Consider? Yes. But I imagine most would rather stay domestically...
Besides, Brandon Jennings is an outlier - Jeremy Tyler might be considered more of a "success" story.

Put a different way - how does your idea benefit Olowokandi?
   554. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:46 PM (#4352757)
Prep players who want to be drafted by NBA should seriously consider playing overseas. It'll help weed out those who are serious about their career vs. the people who can't handle being a professional for instance. Less chances of drafting a bust like Michael Olawakandi for instance.

So far we've only seen Jennings and Tyler go that route. It's arguable both hurt their draft stock by doing that instead of college (both struggled adjusting to moving from HS to being a pro and to being in a foreign country). Also, your last couple sentences are a different argument/discussion and is from the perspective of NBA teams and not individuals. College weeds plenty of guys out too (Jereme Richmond, for one), and there are still plenty of busts that have come from overseas pro ball.

In theory, I do like the idea and wish it was tried more, but because I think the NCAA is a joke and not because I think it's "better". I think going into certain systems (like Calipari's) arguably helps players quite a bit (Davis would have gone #1 out of HS, too, but Rose wouldn't have).
   555. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:47 PM (#4352758)
More succinct, DK. Thanks.

Is Tyler a success? Wasn't he pretty high profile before he went (and not just because he went)? IOW, would he have gone higher if he stayed and went to say, UCLA or something, instead?
   556. Tripon Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:49 PM (#4352760)
Olowokandi would have been paid as a 18 year old, that's how he benefits. And it benefits me because then I wouldn't have to watch his sorry ass on the Clippers.
   557. cmd600 Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:54 PM (#4352763)
I also loved the Lebron tweets. He's right.


Maybe, but not for the reason he states. $525 million represents how much the new owners value a NBA team in a new arena in Seattle (and may be taking a lower expected ROI to bring a team back to their local market) in the new-CBA climate, not how much money the owners, as a whole, make. And of course, part of the lockout was the smaller market owners trying to claw some revenue out of the larger markets. Sure, Lebron and the players were collateral damage to that, but can he not recognize all the moving parts here, and not just lazily pick out the one that gives the union the best PR?
   558. smileyy Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:57 PM (#4352770)
(Chris Johnson) is a three point specialist in his first year out of Dayton who avoids mistakes


Huh...I guess he's improved a lot since he left Dayton.

Ok, to be fair, there's a big difference in choices when you're the #1 or #2 option in an offense, vs. the #4 or #5 option.
   559. Spivey Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:59 PM (#4352775)
So is Seattle building the new team a stadium? I assume they are. Anyone know the politics on why they wouldn't do it for the last team, then? They lost out on a pretty special team.
   560. kpelton Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:07 PM (#4352790)
The current ownership group is putting up about $290 million of a $490MM arena, with the rest to be repaid through ticket taxes and rent.

The previous offer for a new arena (by the OKC group, FWIW) asked for $300MM out of $530MM, with no repayment. The Schultz ownership group wanted to renovate KeyArena, and was willing to put up about $20MM out of the $220MM, again without specific repayment. There's no comparison to the current offer.
   561. kpelton Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:10 PM (#4352793)
not just lazily pick out the one that gives the union the best PR?

I think that's a feature, not a bug.
   562. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4352798)
Olowokandi would have been paid as a 18 year old, that's how he benefits.

Per BB-Ref, he made $37.9mil in his career. If he busts out in Europe, he's unlikely to make 10% of that. So again, how does he benefit there?
   563. andrewberg Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:23 PM (#4352814)
Maybe, but not for the reason he states. $525 million represents how much the new owners value a NBA team in a new arena in Seattle (and may be taking a lower expected ROI to bring a team back to their local market) in the new-CBA climate, not how much money the owners, as a whole, make. And of course, part of the lockout was the smaller market owners trying to claw some revenue out of the larger markets. Sure, Lebron and the players were collateral damage to that, but can he not recognize all the moving parts here, and not just lazily pick out the one that gives the union the best PR?


Also, part of the owners' PR campaign during the lockout was that they could not not sustain growth in franchise value without a major overhaul of their salary expenditure structure. You point out a lot of appropriate caveats, but if franchise values are now exploding and owners were willfully keeping franchises out of the ideal markets before the lockout, then that calls into serious question whether they really risked losing value under the old system.

In other words, the owners said that the lockout was about their survival. This sale makes it look like it was purely about profit.
   564. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:23 PM (#4352815)
In Phoenix, Jermaine O'Neal and GM Lance Blanks got into it this morning. and now JO isn't making the trip to Sacto for tomorrow night's game.
   565. cmd600 Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:28 PM (#4352822)
I think that's a feature, not a bug.


Right, its PR, which is why I responded as such to someone saying "he's right". He's not necessarily "right" (though, again, he may be), he's just toeing the union line.
   566. andrewberg Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:40 PM (#4352837)
In Phoenix, Jermaine O'Neal and GM Lance Blanks got into it this morning. and now JO isn't making the trip to Sacto for tomorrow night's game.


He's not making the trip because he was injured in his argument with the executive. He's out 2-4 weeks with a bad back.
   567. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:53 PM (#4352867)
He's not making the trip because he was injured in his argument with the executive. He's out 2-4 weeks with a bad back.

I love that I have no idea whether this is true or not.
   568. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 22, 2013 at 05:53 PM (#4352869)
Olowokandi's stock rose dramatically toward the end of his college career, iirc (might not be). I've mentioned this before, but I used to have a strange habits of tracking d1 walkons - Olowokandi was a VERY GOOD one.

I'm not sure if I should call Tyler a success or not. Probably would've gone higher under the old system, but he's had more of a an NBA career than I thought he would back in his BJ league days (that's a real thing, folks).
   569. Squash Posted: January 22, 2013 at 06:11 PM (#4352894)
$525 million represents how much the new owners value a NBA team in a new arena in Seattle (and may be taking a lower expected ROI to bring a team back to their local market) in the new-CBA climate, not how much money the owners, as a whole, make.

ESPN articles are saying merely that the Kings have been valued at $525 million - there's no mention of whether that means "the Kings in Seattle" or just "the Kings" (though I very much suspect the latter, given that the move to Seattle hasn't even been applied for or approved yet), but even so they're not getting a team with a new arena in Seattle. They're getting the Kings who are in Sacramento who as of this moment have no new arena in Seattle. They have to build the stadium (as Kevin details above, at $290 million), i.e. that $525 is pretty much entirely what they value the team alone at, plus some amount of relocation fees (does anyone have any idea what they are?). In short, it is indeed as LeBron says a pretty good time to own an NBA team.
   570. kpelton Posted: January 22, 2013 at 06:27 PM (#4352908)
That's definitely not the valuation of the Kings in Sacramento. There's not a scenario where the purchase would be approved and the move would be denied. If the NBA doesn't want the franchise to move, the owners will simply vote against the sale.

There's an inherent problem with talking about "market value" of NBA teams because they change hands so infrequently, and it's not like there's an option to just start your own team. So supply and demand are pretty fluid, especially the supply of teams that are capable of moving the following season. If not the Kings, the Seattle ownership group would have to wait years to bring a team here, by which point the arena deal may no longer be viable. So they were willing to pay a significant premium for certainty.
   571. andrewberg Posted: January 22, 2013 at 06:31 PM (#4352912)
If not the Kings, the Seattle ownership group would have to wait years to bring a team here, by which point the arena deal may no longer be viable. So they were willing to pay a significant premium for certainty.


That has struck me through this process, as well. After the initial reports of Hansen's deal trickled out and Sacramento started making a push to raise a "fair" counter-offer, my first idea was that Hansen better make the full price offer with no shortcuts if he wants a team in Seattle, because trifling over a small percentage of the total value could submarine deal with no alternative in sight.
   572. steagles Posted: January 22, 2013 at 07:28 PM (#4352963)
so, with doc rivers talking about shaking things up in boston and with josh smith being on the way out of atlanta, how does this trade possibility look to everyone here?
   573. cmd600 Posted: January 22, 2013 at 07:54 PM (#4352974)
so, with doc rivers talking about shaking things up in boston and with josh smith being on the way out of atlanta, how does this trade possibility look to everyone here?


Somewhere between incredibly favorable to Philly and the steal of the century. Now let me actually look at it.



EDIT: Even for you, this is a laugher.
   574. Fourth True Outcome Posted: January 22, 2013 at 08:41 PM (#4352992)
For all that it's highway robbery for Philly, the C's turning Jeff Green's immediately regrettable contract and Courtney Lee into Josh Smith also beggars belief. I would be over the moon if that were actually possible.
   575. Squash Posted: January 22, 2013 at 08:54 PM (#4352996)
If not the Kings, the Seattle ownership group would have to wait years to bring a team here, by which point the arena deal may no longer be viable. So they were willing to pay a significant premium for certainty.

Is this a premium though? They're just saying the new ownership group is paying the valuation of the team (whatever that means). I think you're probably right though as you and Andrew point out that the timing of the whole thing (they have to get the relocation papers in by March 1 as well) means they put aside the dickering and just agreed to buy the whole thing at retail price right out of the gate.
   576. RollingWave Posted: January 22, 2013 at 09:20 PM (#4353003)
true, the rockets play is quite weird when they're not running and gunning, you'd figure after last year you should almost certainly try to play a lot of pick and roll with Lin, and yeah he seem to be excessively in love with forward shooting 3s, every one of their forward that gets significant time (assuming that you see Greg Smith more as the backup C) shoots a ton of 3s, which would generally explain why their rebounding number sucks... in fact most games saw Lin and Harden grabbing more rebound then their forwards.

I'm also unsure why the Rockets seem to fear using their sub so much, most seem to be quite decent, for all the hate Tony Douglas gets he's actually quietly putting up a decent season , though Greg Smith's ability to almost foul out every game within 15 min is annoying. especially since he's per 36 min is actually a double double.

Also I'm not sure why Donatas Motiejunas and Terrance Jones get so few minutes when the team's power forward spot is obviously not in great shape. though I guess maybe it's because they don't shoot 3 balls.

   577. PJ Martinez Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:22 PM (#4353027)
Celtics are about to lose in Cleveland. They'll have a losing record when they do.
   578. kpelton Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:24 PM (#4353028)
They're just saying the new ownership group is paying the valuation of the team (whatever that means).

Maybe the use of the term "valuation" is where we're getting signals mixed. The reason it's being used here is that the Seattle group is not buying the Kings outright; they're buying 65% of the team (the controlling amount owned by the Maloofs, who will apparently retain some small share, and another minority investor). So the amount they're actually paying (about $340MM) implies that the entire franchise is worth $525MM -- hence the valuation.
   579. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:54 PM (#4353036)
Celtics are about to lose in Cleveland. They'll have a losing record when they do.


DEEEE-troit Basketball! EDIT - 4 games back! Catch the fever!
   580. PJ Martinez Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:59 PM (#4353040)
i don't know how someone looks at the effort jennings gives and doesn't at least appreciate how hard he's working

I don't watch Jennings much, but I do like him. I'd like to see the Bucks trade Ellis for a big man (Al Jefferson?).
   581. steagles Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:09 PM (#4353043)
I don't watch Jennings much, but I do like him. I'd like to see the Bucks trade Ellis for a big man (Al Jefferson?).
maybe you could make it a 5 team deal of players who had mistakenly been given max contracts (ellis/jefferson/gay/smith/iguodala) and whose teams have/had been trying to trade them for a half decade as a result.
   582. Squash Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:30 PM (#4353052)
Maybe the use of the term "valuation" is where we're getting signals mixed. The reason it's being used here is that the Seattle group is not buying the Kings outright; they're buying 65% of the team (the controlling amount owned by the Maloofs, who will apparently retain some small share, and another minority investor). So the amount they're actually paying (about $340MM) implies that the entire franchise is worth $525MM -- hence the valuation.

We're clear on that - I'm questioning whether there is any premium involved. I don't see how from what's being reported that there is. If the valuation is $525 million, and the Seattle group is paying that number by percentage of the shares they're purchasing, where's the theoretical "moving to Seattle" premium? I don't see anything in there - from the data we have it looks like the Kings are worth $525 million flat out.

EDIT: To get even more specific, the Maloofs have a pretty big incentive to sell - they need money, as everyone knows. If they don't sell the franchise now and the March 1 deadline passes then the Kings can't relocate in 2013-14, yet their lease is up in Sacramento (right?). So they'd need to renegotiate with the city to play that season in Sacramento and possibly have to sign a multi-year lease, being stuck in Sacramento for the foreseeable future. Which of course doesn't work for the ownership team in Seattle and potentially other ownership groups. $525 is a pretty sweet valuation - it seems reasonable they'd sell for the market price if they could get it right now and not risk the downside of getting stuck with the team in Sacramento for the next few years. Both sides have an incentive for this to happen fast, which means meeting at a price they both can swallow and justify to themselves and their partners.
   583. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:44 AM (#4353079)
DEEEE-troit Basketball! EDIT - 4 games back! Catch the fever!

I came here to specifically post about the Pistons. I love Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe, especially Drummond. There's potential for a dominant frontcourt and that's a great thing to have.
   584. bigboy1234 Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:56 AM (#4353083)
Yep, Drummond continues to impress. Would be amazing if he got more PT how much more known he'd become in the mainstream media.

Everyones top 3 MVP so far? I'm assuming everyone has it of some combination of Durant, Lebron, and CP3 as the top 3, and Duncan should be 4th.
   585. kpelton Posted: January 23, 2013 at 01:25 AM (#4353093)
If the valuation is $525 million, and the Seattle group is paying that number by percentage of the shares they're purchasing, where's the theoretical "moving to Seattle" premium?

That's $75 million -- one-sixth -- more than any NBA franchise has ever sold for before (Golden State last year), and while again there aren't a lot of data points, it seems unlikely that even in Seattle the Kings are worth that much more than the Warriors in the Bay.
   586. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 23, 2013 at 01:59 AM (#4353102)
Ilyasova had a huge game tonight in a Bucks win. I thought he'd bust out after last season, but he's been pretty weak this season. Anyone watch the Bucks often enough to know what's going on with him?
   587. Squash Posted: January 23, 2013 at 02:03 AM (#4353103)
That's $75 million -- one-sixth -- more than any NBA franchise has ever sold for before (Golden State last year), and while again there aren't a lot of data points, it seems unlikely that even in Seattle the Kings are worth that much more than the Warriors in the Bay.

I'd say no, which actually helps my original point. As a Warriors fan, Oakland's not that great of a market for the Warriors, which is why they're moving to SF - they don't get a ton of corporate sponsorship, which they will be getting after they move. Perhaps the Warriors were purchased with the understanding that they would be moved fairly swiftly to SF - likely so. Are the Kings worth $75 million more in Seattle in than the Warriors in San Francisco? I'd say no. Then what's changed between now and July 2010? The CBA. The Warriors may have been sold under the promise that the CBA would be amended, but that's discounted for cost certainty. The costs are certain now.

I'll amend my statement - I see what you mean about the Seattle bonus, if indeed that's how the valuations work (though it would be interesting to get confirmation of this). The Warriors sold as a terrible team in a poor city in a dilapidated stadium with a good escape route for $450 million in July 2010. The Kings are selling today as a terrible team in a poor city in a dilapidated stadium with a good escape route for $525 million (with some relocation fees included, so drop that number a little bit). The original question was essentially whether it was fair to say the sale of the Kings was a bullet point against the lockout, or whether it was more of a PR jab. I'd say yes, it is a valid point. There are other moving parts, but I'd guess those are largely swamped by the differences in the CBA.

I guess the money question would be what do we think the Kings would sell for to a group that would keep the team in Sacramento? Versus what would they have sold for in July 2010 to a group that would keep them in Sacramento? Discounting for inflation and such.
   588. bob gee Posted: January 23, 2013 at 08:11 AM (#4353133)
576 - i despise douglas as a point guard. couldn't play it in nyc, can't play it in houston.

but he's a servicable backup shooting guard / 1-on-1 defensive guy. another example of someone being pushed into playing something they're not good at, instead of using what they are good at.

sort of the anti-earl weaver...
   589. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2013 at 08:54 AM (#4353140)
586

word around town is that skiles was just really negative the whole season and wehn ilyasova didn't come out of the gate hitting shots skiles cut back on his time and it became a cycle of frustration.

i don't know a d8mn thing but i would not be surprised if at some point we learn of a personal issue with skiles. he was in a bad mood all the time, was really harsh on different players and then went to management about being let go.

i hope whatever it is he manages to come out the other side ok. cause right now scott skiles is in a bad place for whatever reason
   590. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 23, 2013 at 09:51 AM (#4353153)
hasn't that always been skiles, even in his college days? (asking, idk here)
   591. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 23, 2013 at 10:40 AM (#4353188)
DEEEE-troit Basketball! EDIT - 4 games back! Catch the fever!

Bulls/Pistons tonight:

K.C Johnson ?@KCJHoop
#Bulls have won 16 straight games over the #Pistons by an average of a whopping 10.5 points per game.


i don't know how someone looks at the effort jennings gives and doesn't at least appreciate how hard he's working

Sorry, there's nothing notable about his effort to me and I don't enjoy his game. That's on me though.

i don't know a d8mn thing but i would not be surprised if at some point we learn of a personal issue with skiles. he was in a bad mood all the time, was really harsh on different players and then went to management about being let go.

Yes, like DK says, that's Skiles for you. That's exactly what happened in Phoenix and Chicago.

   592. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: January 23, 2013 at 11:00 AM (#4353203)
Bulls/Pistons tonight:

K.C Johnson ?@KCJHoop
#Bulls have won 16 straight games over the #Pistons by an average of a whopping 10.5 points per game.


Yeah, not expecting much out of Detroit tonight or really the playoffs. Schedule is getting tougher. If they win some of these games against playoff teams in the next week I'll start to get my hopes up, though.

Am I wrong to not be worked up that Drummond isn't playing more? Seems to be the thing to be that Pistons fans are angry about. Obviously when he's on the court he's making a huge impact, but he's 19 and I'm ok with them slowly increasing his minutes.
   593. Spivey Posted: January 23, 2013 at 11:09 AM (#4353210)
I do think Ilyasova struggled with confidence earlier in the year. Skiles may deserve some of that, but I think some of it is just the fact he was struggling with shots. Milwaukee is a team of deep, averageish players - Ilyasova really shouldn't be getting a ton of playing time, IMO, if he's not playing well.

I think his shooting rates last year were/are a little unsustainable, too.
   594. jmurph Posted: January 23, 2013 at 11:17 AM (#4353215)
What are these insane trade rumors with Howard going to NJ, Kevin Love going to LAL, and Lopez going to Minnesota? Has Love's stock fallen that much that the Wolves would be happy to exchange him for Lopez? That seems way off to me.
   595. Spivey Posted: January 23, 2013 at 11:17 AM (#4353216)
The best thing Milwaukee has going for them, as far as watching them goes, is Larry Sanders. God he's fun.

As for Jennings - he's a nice player and plays hard, though not abnormally so. But he seems to pout occassionally and expect more star calls than he gets (or should get). As far as playing hard goes, I'd actually give the nod to Ellis. I've been pretty impressed with his motor. Yeah, he doesn't deserve a max contract, but he shouldn't be blamed for that.
   596. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2013 at 11:29 AM (#4353225)
so i go to basketball reference and pull up per which sounds like a reasonable stat and list the point guards in descending order

chris paul
russell westbrook
tony parker
kyle lowery (limited time)
kyrie irving
jose calderon
stephen curry
kemba walker
jrue holiday
rajon rondo
deron williams
brandon jennings

then i look at age. the only guys above younger than jennings are irving, walker and holiday. and my understanding is that irving is something of a prodigy

some of you guys sound like tough graders.

but i don't claim to know basketball

   597. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 23, 2013 at 11:40 AM (#4353236)
And Derrick Rose isn't on the list cause he hasn't played yet. It's a golden age in the NBA for PGs and none of those guys on that list are outside their primes even if they're older (maybe Williams is on the decline). I'd take all of them ahead of Jennings except for Calderon (no defense whatsoever) and Walker (he's more of a scorer than PG, and is even smaller than Jennings). I'd also take John Wall ahead of him. And Ty Lawson.

Sorry, but being in the top half (at the bottom) of starting PGs just isn't that impressive.

   598. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 23, 2013 at 11:47 AM (#4353245)
moses

wasn't claiming he was uber awesome. and it would make sense that folks would take the others over jennings given that their play has been superior.

just reads like the kid can play. and has the chance to get even better if there is anything to aging curves

and if it's a golden age for point guards then in a different time jennings is perceived differently though i am not making that claim. just saying

boy he must have spit on your spats as you typically are not so negative on player

   599. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: January 23, 2013 at 11:56 AM (#4353253)
Hey, you asked. I'm just trying to put him in perspective for you. You like him and his effort, nothing wrong with that. He's just another guy to me, and neither his effort or talent really differentiate themselves from his peers or hint at him becoming one of the best at his position. He's unlikely to ever make an All Star team or be a top player on a championship team.

He's an above average player, and although my comments may read as negative towards him, they're not. We also talked a bit on this page about him choosing to go to Europe instead of college, and I wish it had gone better for him and that would have led to others trying to go that route too instead of the NCAA.
   600. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:01 PM (#4353260)
Bos and LA both with losing records? I guess now that Stern is leaving, he really doesn't give a ####.
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