Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, April 01, 2013

OT: NBA Monthly Thread - April 2013

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: the Oxford comma and unspeakable criminal acts.

 

The District Attorney Posted: April 01, 2013 at 11:27 AM | 1276 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 7 of 13 pages ‹ First  < 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 >  Last ›
   601. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:00 AM (#4416701)
[599] Arjun, thanks for voting, of course it will count! We're an open society here in the NBA thread.
   602. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:08 AM (#4416709)
Y'all voting for baby Gasol should acknowledge that he only scores 13 a game at below .500 shooting.

I'll acknowledge that he only scores 14 a game, though his True Shooting is a few percentage points above average (56%) and he leads all Centers in assists, A/TO, and minutes, while also being the most indispensable player on the league's best defense.

Will you and others giving LeBron DPOY votes acknowledge that he's surrounded by good defenders on a defense that has been far from elite?
   603. Conor Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:09 AM (#4416712)
Haha, great call by me on Lebron! My brother was one of those guys who thought Lebron was really going to take it to another level after winning a title.

Man, he had a 60% effective fg% on 30% usage. I'm not good at using the play index; but numbers like that have to be pretty rare I would imagine
   604. tshipman Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:14 AM (#4416718)
I'll acknowledge that he only scores 14 a game, though his True Shooting is a few percentage points above average (56%) and he leads all Centers in assists, A/TO, and minutes, while also being the most indispensable player on the league's best defense.


What does "most indispensable" mean? It sounds like you want to say best, but can't bring yourself to say it.

Marc Gasol is a fine player. He's an all-star, and maybe as high as 3rd team all-NBA. He has no business being on an MVP list. I say that with great respect for the Gasol family.
   605. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:18 AM (#4416723)
Man, he had a 60% effective fg% on 30% usage. I'm not good at using the play index; but numbers like that have to be pretty rare I would imagine


The list: Shaq in '05, Shaq in '06, Lebron in '13

If you switch it to TS% (includes FT), the following players have seasons with TS% > .600 and USG% > 30 (and 2000 minutes played):

Jordan (4 straight, '88-'91)
Lebron ('10, '12, and '13)
Durant ('10, '12)
Bird ('88)
Malone ('90)
Shaq ('03)

Lebron's 2013 will be the record for TS% given 30% usage - his TS% is .640 this year.
If you were wondering about Durant this season, he's at .647 TS%....with a USG% of 29.8.



   606. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:19 AM (#4416727)
while also being the most indispensable player on the league's best defense.


Right, that's why I gave him my DPOY vote.

I mean, I guess it doesn't matter if you give a guy a 5th place vote in our meaningless thing anyway, especially when we all know who 1 and 2 are, but...
   607. AROM Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:25 AM (#4416740)
Will you and others giving LeBron DPOY votes acknowledge that he's surrounded by good defenders on a defense that has been far from elite?


Curious, which Heat do you see as good defenders? Other than Lebron I don't see a lot of individual defensive standouts. But they do make things work as a team.
   608. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:32 AM (#4416752)
Arjun - I'd thought you posted in these threads before? Anyway, hell yeah I wanna know what you think.

So - I looked at my predictions, linked on the last page. After spending several days arguing why the Lakers were overrated - I ignored my own arguments and had them going to the NBA finals. Coward.

EASTpredMIA BOS PHI IND BKN CHI ATL NYK MIL TOR CLE DET WAS ORL CHA
EASTreal
MIA NYK IND BKN CHI ATL BOS MIL PHI TOR DET WAS CLE ORL CHA 

What I screwed up: Didn't think Collins would go more nuts with the mid-range, did think Bynum would play. Knicks weren't as big of a miss as this looks - but Melo's inspired year + use at the four and Woodson mixing up his approach a bit went a long way. Boston...

WESTpredLAL OKC SAS DEN LAC MIN MEM UTA DAL POR GSW NWO HOU SAC PHO  
WESTreal
OKC SAS DEN LAC MEM GSW HOU LAL UTA DAL POR MIN SAC NWO PHO 

We all got the Lakers wrong. Didn't see GSW playing as well as they did, as Curry stayed healthy and Jackson was competent. Minnesota ##### me over every year. Houston is the flipside of the Lakers isn't that my first stab had them 9th in the league. I didn't believe it and downgraded, downgraded, downgraded. Asik held up w/ full time use, Harden improved, Parsons did too, the spare parts worked out.

MVPpred: LeBron
ROTYpred: Lillard

High-fives self.

MIPpred: Asik

So - I picked this but also had Houston 13th. Stupid.
   609. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:45 AM (#4416777)
So - I picked this but also had Houston 13th. Stupid.


We were all down on Houston - recall though most of these predictions were pre-Harden trade. Now, I still don't think most of us would have gone for 45-47 wins, but still.

Boston...


I think we all mostly agreed that the East 2-8 was a crapshoot, and that almost nothing would be that surprising. Obviously, the Sixers "surprised", and the Knicks definitely surprised me. The Celtics disappointed me somewhat - some of that is injuries, some of that is underperformance, some of that is punting because who cares where they finish if they aren't going to get home court as long as they avoid Miami in round 1.

It's rare that you have a 1st round series (Celtics/Knicks) where it wouldn't totally shock you if a) either team won in as few as 5 games or b) either team made the conference finals (though my pick to lose to the Heat is definitely going to be Indiana).

Actually, some of you would be shocked if the Celtics made the conference finals, but geez, it's a thin Knicks team that relies on JR Smith and the good-but-not-great Pacers in their way. I'd expect the Celtics to lose a series to either of those teams >50% of the time, but neither would be the upset of the century by any stretch. So, maybe there's like a 15-20% chance or something like that. (All of this assumes Garnett is healthyish, which is still a major if at this point - if he's not, the Celtics are cooked in round 1.)
   610. kpelton Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:45 AM (#4416778)
I explained the 3/4/5 situation in the West here: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/56594/when-seeds-mislead

Most negative WARP:
-4.6 Austin Rivers
-4.4 Kevin Seraphin
-3.4 Norris Cole
-3.0 Kendrick Perkins
-3.0 Dahntay Jones
-2.5 Michael Beasley
   611. andrewberg Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:48 AM (#4416783)
So - I picked this but also had Houston 13th. Stupid.


I think we made our predictions before they got Harden.

I had four big whiffs: BKN, LAL, MIN, G-ST. We have discussed what went wrong with the LAL pick ad nauseum. The injuries that derailed the season in MIN are depressing and I don't feel like I need to go through them for the twentieth time.

With both of the other teams, I think I missed the synergy value of having high value offensive players helping each other. I wrote at length about how I didn't think Williams and Lopez would both stay healthy and Lopez ended up healthy and productive, so that is a big part of why I missed on them by ~ 8-10 games. With the W's, Curry and Lee finally stayed in the lineup for most of the year and played some of their best basketball. Looking at these other injury prone teams who stayed healthy is only making me more upset about the Wolves.
   612. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:48 AM (#4416784)
I thought Seraphin would be an okay player. Oops.

Even without the Harden move having happened yet, Asik would not win MIP if his team finished 13th - that was the really dumb thing.
   613. Manny Coon Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:21 PM (#4416829)
Y'all voting for baby Gasol should acknowledge that he only scores 13 a game at below .500 shooting.


Scoring isn't everything. He's still an above average scorer, which is more than you can say about the defense of guys like Curry, Melo or Kobe this year. I don't think a volume scorer is obviously more value than someone who is an above average offensive player and elite defender.

It's just one metric, but Gasol is 6th in the league in win shares, so I don't think putting him 4th or 5th is much a stretch.
   614. GregD Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:22 PM (#4416832)
Speaking of scoring not being anything, Durant is sitting out the final game and conceding the scoring title.
   615. Manny Coon Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:24 PM (#4416834)
Most negative WARP:
-4.6 Austin Rivers
-4.4 Kevin Seraphin
-3.4 Norris Cole
-3.0 Kendrick Perkins
-3.0 Dahntay Jones
-2.5 Michael Beasley


He's probably not quite at the level of these guys, but as a Clipper fan I can't stand it when Grant Hill plays, that guys is just beyond washed up. The Clippers are something like 15-14 when he plays and 40-12 when he doesn't.
   616. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:34 PM (#4416844)
Rasheed retired again.
   617. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:34 PM (#4416847)
Also, this was telling "Shump's ACL locks up Rose's ACL" considering Shump's ACL has indeed proven superior to Rose's.

Heh. So true.

---

I did not so good on my projections this year (I did a much better job last season). I got exactly one team in the right spot in the East - Miami, and I proudly predicted the Bucks to miss the playoffs. I'll take a half point for that. I missed predicting GS and Houston out west (had Dallas and Minny), but said I liked the Warriors if healthy (partial credit); however, I have only one team in the right spot there right now (OKC). I think I liked the Rockets when they got Harden, but haven't found that part of the thread yet.

This is my favorite post, non-me-looking-stupid-division:

I will leave my mother's basement if IND, as presently constructed, was able to beat NYK in a series. If you can guard Hibbert one on one, IND just isn't that good and Chandler can. Of course, I'm also a huge Paul George fan and hoping he breaks out, which if it happens, alters my previous statement.


Obviously, you were higher on the Knicks preseason, NJ. I do hope we get this 2nd round series, and I would be surprised if the Knicks were to beat them.
   618. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:35 PM (#4416850)
Rasheed retired again.

Arguably the most underrated player in the glorious history of the Association.

Bob Dandridge and Chauncey Billups also come to mind.
   619. Booey Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:35 PM (#4416851)
Glancing over the predictions, many of them are so similar that I'm not really seeing a clear-cut winner or loser. Going with the consensus -

The only teams that appear to have been badly overrated were LAL (for reasons that have been beaten to death), and PHI and MIN (cuz we expected their star players to actually play). People were a little high on CHI and BOS (but not too badly), and those are understandable anyway since we thought Rose would come back eventually and no one could have forseen the Rondo injury.

The teams that seemed to be the most underrated were GSW (I think only 1 person had them making the playoffs) and HOU (few predicted them making the playoffs, but our guesses were before the Harden trade). NYK, MEM, and DEN were all underrated as well, since most seemed to pick them to win 45-50 rather than 55ish. LAC and SAS were just a bit underrated (maybe 3-5 wins on average).

Some people (like me) expected MIA to coast a bit during the season and finish with wins in the high 50's rather than the mid 60's, but we all said they'd get 1st in the East by a wide margin, so no one really whiffed too badly on that. The consensus also came pretty close to the win totals of OKC, IND, BKN, ATL, and UTH. Some people thought MIL could challenge for the last playoff spot out East, so that wasn't bad. DAL was a little worse that people expected, but the Dirk injury likely had a lot to do with that. POR, NOH, CHA, ORL, PHX, DET, CLE, TOR, SAC, and WAS weren't expected to make the playoffs and didn't, so score one for us there.
   620. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:39 PM (#4416857)
I enjoyed some of these awards using some of the Synergy Sports stuff. Particularly this:

Longest Average Run
And the HabersTrophy goes to ... Joakim Noah

Let's say you want to know who might be the most exhausted player in the game. The minutes-per-game leaderboard would be the first place you'd go, right? But what if I told you that a guy who doesn't even rank in the top 10 in minutes per game probably runs more than anybody else? It's true: Noah, who ranks 14th in minutes per game, ran a staggering 2.74 miles per game under the SportVU lens. No one has covered more distance than the high-energy center on a game-to-game basis -- and that includes Luol Deng, who leads the NBA in minutes per game with a 38.9 figure. Deng actually came in second with 2.68 miles run per game. Something tells me that Tom Thibodeau won't be satisfied until the top five consists of all Bulls players.


Only reason Noah isn't in the top 10 in MPG is the recurring foot problem and minutes limits. His average would be even higher otherwise.
   621. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:41 PM (#4416862)
Curious, which Heat do you see as good defenders? Other than Lebron I don't see a lot of individual defensive standouts. But they do make things work as a team.

Listed them in 574. Battier, Bosh, Wade, Haslem, and Chalmers have typically been good defenders by the metrics I referenced, with or without LeBron. Same with Joel Anthony and Chris Andersen, though they don't play as many minutes. LeBron is probably the best individual defender of that group, but it's not like the situations facing guys like Asik, Sanders, Howard, and Iguodala, where they're covering up for notably poor defenders. The bad defenders in Miami are Cole and Allen, who get the bulk of the minutes when LeBron is off the court.

If the argument for LeBron is that he enables the Heat to play small at times to improve the offense by upping the tempo and getting an extra shooter on the court, then how could he rank ahead of Asik? Asik plays alongside Harden, Lin, a shooter, and a revolving door of undersized and defensively-poor PFs (Parsons fills both of the latter two roles). The Rockets play smaller, faster, and more 3-heavy than the Heat, and Asik's on/off stats 104.3/110.0 and defensive RAPM (+3.5) should place him distinctly ahead of LeBron. Iguodala is in a similar position to LeBron in that he can guard positions 1-4, except his teammates are weaker defensively and he actually takes the toughest assignments in the regular season. Denver's best lineup with 100+ minutes is Lawson, Miller, Gallinari, Iguodala, and Faried, which would be a sieve defensively with an average defender in place of Iggy.

Moreover, the idea that Miami is some sort of defensive juggernaut simply has not been true this season. The defense has been slightly above average, which is roughly as bad as any defense under Spoelstra in his head coaching career (and worse than his team that started Michael Beasley at PF all season). Their offense is great, and presumably their defense will be much improved in the playoffs, but there's no logical justification for rating LeBron as the DPOY for the 2012-13 regular season.

I mean, I guess it doesn't matter if you give a guy a 5th place vote in our meaningless thing anyway, especially when we all know who 1 and 2 are, but...

Right. I put Gasol at the back end of my top 5, where you could go any number of different ways. LeBron is #1, Durant is #2, and then you're splitting hairs. It's the idea that Gasol is one of the candidates for those last couple spots where it seems that tship and I differ.

What does "most indispensable" mean? It sounds like you want to say best, but can't bring yourself to say it. Marc Gasol is a fine player. He's an all-star, and maybe as high as 3rd team all-NBA. He has no business being on an MVP list. I say that with great respect for the Gasol family.

I don't know if he's the best defender on the Grizzlies, as both he and Tony Allen are really good. Gasol plays a lot more minutes though, and when he's off the court the defense is somewhat worse than when Allen is off the court. I would appreciate it if you would name the two Centers that you'd rank above Gasol this year.
   622. kpelton Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:42 PM (#4416864)
He's probably not quite at the level of these guys, but as a Clipper fan I can't stand it when Grant Hill plays ...

Hill rates worse per minute than any of those guys, but didn't play enough to do as much damage.
   623. Spivey Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:42 PM (#4416865)
I guessed 50 myself, along with the comment "teams like this never win titles" - while I obviously missed low on my wins number, I stand by that. Denver's ceiling is the conference finals.

I think you get negative credit for this comment. Normally I'd say no credit, but I think congratulating your preseason prediction that a team that just lost arguably their best player for the playoffs could struggle in the playoffs deserves negative points.
   624. Conor Posted: April 17, 2013 at 12:50 PM (#4416876)
I am a Knicks fan, but I would predict the Knicks to beat Indy if they played in the second round, though it would probably go 7. I say this assuming Chandler especially, and Martin as well, are healthy. If they aren't, the Knicks chances go down a lot, though they would still have home court and they did just beat Indy without any of their big guys. (And btw, Roy Hibbert in that game had one of the least impressive offensive games I've seen in a while. He played 29 minutes, was guarded by either Solomon Jones or Chris Copeland, and scored 4 points.

The Melo-West matchup would be fascinating, because I'm not sure Woodson would want Melo to bang with him for seven games, so if they matched up you wo uld probably see a lot of the Melo/Martin/Chandler frontcourt, which will of course hurt the spacing.

The teams split the season series, with the home team winning all 4, and 3 of the 4 games were decided by double digits. Though it might be fair to point out that the Knicks haven't won a playoff series since I was in high school, so I may be getting a little ahead of myself here
   625. AROM Posted: April 17, 2013 at 01:06 PM (#4416890)
Listed them in 574. Battier, Bosh, Wade, Haslem, and Chalmers have typically been good defenders by the metrics I referenced, with or without LeBron. Same with Joel Anthony and Chris Andersen, though they don't play as many minutes. LeBron is probably the best individual defender of that group, but it's not like the situations facing guys like Asik, Sanders, Howard, and Iguodala, where they're covering up for notably poor defenders. The bad defenders in Miami are Cole and Allen, who get the bulk of the minutes when LeBron is off the court.


I think Anderson is the best of that group. Plus I just like seeing him on the court, for ornithological reasons. It's hard to get a real sense of their defensive capability, as they've had so many opportunities to coast this season while their outside game achieved air superiority. This goes especially for Wade, but also Bosh and even James to some extent (I'm not arguing for him as DPOY for this, though he might be the most dominant defender in the league when he needs to be.) Battier is still OK, but not the defender he once was. I'm not impressed by Chalmers, and suspect he's a big beneficiary of co-variance on any on/off type stat, playing with Wade and James. When the other team's PG is going off, they don't call on Chalmers to shut him down. They go to James.

   626. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 17, 2013 at 01:48 PM (#4416944)
Though it might be fair to point out that the Knicks haven't won a playoff series since I was in high school, so I may be getting a little ahead of myself here


Knicks fans: As a Celtics fan, the Knicks are simultaneously the team I want to see most in the 1st round (because nothing would be better than the cries of Knicks fans if this basically washed up Celtics team were to beat them, and because the Knicks have had zero success in the playoffs with Melo) and the team I would like to see the least (because nothing would be WORSE than the cries of Knicks fans if they were to drive the final nail into the coffin of this Celtics team). I am at once electrified and petrified. Do any of you feel the same way for similar reasons?
   627. Maxwn Posted: April 17, 2013 at 01:51 PM (#4416952)
On the subject of Marc Gasol's raw PPG totals, it seems worth pointing out that the Grizzlies play about the 3rd slowest pace in the league from what I can find. Edit: I assume there is some way to adjust for that, but I don't know what it is off the top of my head. And while his FG% is only .495, seems like it might be fair to point out that he's probably been the best free throw shooting big man in the league this year at .851.
   628. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: April 17, 2013 at 01:55 PM (#4416957)
Playoffs start this weekend correct?
   629. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: April 17, 2013 at 02:04 PM (#4416980)
[626] I don't actually hate the Celtics. I think it's annoying that Paul Pierce seems to always kill us but the franchises that I basketball hate are CHI, IND and LAL. MIA was in this category until The Decision.

[628] Yep.
   630. Conor Posted: April 17, 2013 at 02:08 PM (#4416986)
626:

Definitely. Even when the Knicks were getting ok the last couple of years, Boston always seemed to be a team that was going to make a few plays at the end of a game, usually with Paul Pierce, at the end of a game to get the win. (Just as a for instance, in 2011 the Knicks went 0-8 vs Boston, and in 4 of those games they lost by 4 points or fewer. Last year, they lost twice to Boston, once by 2 and once by 4 in OT in a game where Pierce hit a 3 at the end of regulation to force OT. But I digress. Point is, Boston in the last few years was definitely better than the Knicks, but even when we played them close, they always seemed to have that one play to win it.)

All the objective numbers say the Knicks are better than the Celtics this year and should win the series. And I think they will. But I'm definitely worried, because I'm sure Boston has had their sights set on the Knicks for a few weeks, and I know that if KG is healthy than Boston is going to be very difficult to score on, and I'm worried about Melo losing his cool in the playoffs if he starts jawing with KG again, and if the game is close at the end and Pierce has the ball...

Edit: NJ, interesting. I really have a pretty strong sports hate for Boston. Well at least KG and Pierce.
   631. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: April 17, 2013 at 02:27 PM (#4417012)
[630] I hate the Red Sox and the Patriots but not BOS. It's probably because they were never TRULY contenders during my formative NBA years in the mid 90s and when they've been good, or even dominant, since it's been on the backs of players I like such as Pierce and Garnett. Admittedly, I've really disliked Boston era KG at times. I would probably be a lot more worked up about the series if Rondo was playing. There's a guy, I really can't stand.
   632. andrewberg Posted: April 17, 2013 at 02:33 PM (#4417026)
I think congratulating your preseason prediction that a team that just lost arguably their best player for the playoffs could struggle in the playoffs deserves negative points.


Hey, teams that lose top players right before the playoffs typically DO struggle in the playoffs, right?
   633. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: April 17, 2013 at 02:38 PM (#4417035)
Zach Lowe's ballot is up on Grantland: LARRY SANDERS! wins MIP!!!.
   634. smileyy Posted: April 17, 2013 at 03:17 PM (#4417079)
I don't enjoy watching Boston at all, but I have a lot of respect for Pierce, Garnett, et.al., and would be amused when they beat other contenders in the East (other than the Heat). Weird, right?
   635. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 17, 2013 at 05:37 PM (#4417216)
I wouldn't be surprised to see Boston or any other lower seed advance into the East Finals. The EC is Miami and everyone else, with "everyone else" in no particular order. The real action this season (and really, every season for a while now) will be in the West. The WC playoffs are going to be brutal.
   636. Quaker Posted: April 17, 2013 at 07:48 PM (#4417320)
Let's go Jazz.
   637. Booey Posted: April 17, 2013 at 08:02 PM (#4417338)
Let's go Jazz.


Indeed. I can't get my hopes up too high though. Even if the Jazz defy long odds and beat the Grizz in Memphis, the Rockets will have a tough time overcoming the 50-16 FT disadvantage they're sure to encounter.
   638. Quaker Posted: April 17, 2013 at 08:52 PM (#4417387)
I don't really care to be honest. They're better off picking a few spots earlier--looks like they can maybe get McCollum @ 14--and having a one in a 100 chance at a top 3 pick. 4 or 5 additional games vs. OKC does very little for the Jazz in the long-term.

Still, it's hard to root against them.
   639. JJ1986 Posted: April 17, 2013 at 08:52 PM (#4417388)
AJ Price single-handily brings the Wizards back into the game. 16 points on 8 FGA
   640. RollingWave Posted: April 17, 2013 at 09:22 PM (#4417425)
We all got the Lakers wrong. Didn't see GSW playing as well as they did, as Curry stayed healthy and Jackson was competent. Minnesota ##### me over every year. Houston is the flipside of the Lakers isn't that my first stab had them 9th in the league. I didn't believe it and downgraded, downgraded, downgraded. Asik held up w/ full time use, Harden improved, Parsons did too, the spare parts worked out.
Pretty much everything (outside of Royce White) turned out well for the Rockets this year, Asik ended up being able to score somewhat, Parsons turned into a scoring machine, Harden exceeded even the previous high expectation and Lin hit the better end of rational expectation of him, and most importantly they didn't have a single serious injury all year.

And it's not just that, the Rockets found amazing depth out of nothing basically, Greg Smith and Patrick Beverly were picked out literally for nothing and are among some of the best reserves in the league, James Anderson also picked up for scraps and was useful enough.

They still don't have any clue who's their PF, as all their PF rookies have only showed flahes and nothing consistent, Greg Smith, the undrafted 22 year old who started last year in Mexico, is now their default PF. Though Terrance Jones is showing some serious intrigue lately.

But yeah, combination of luck and Morey's ability to really value assets have turned this into a brilliant season for Houston, here's hoping they can seriously built on that (which requires some luck. though you'd figure even if they stand pat, as long as one of their PF figure it out they have a good shot at improving)
   641. RollingWave Posted: April 17, 2013 at 09:44 PM (#4417459)
Jazz doing no favors for themselves..

Also I think it's safe to say that Z-Bo's gotten over whatever was bothering him earlier
   642. Spivey Posted: April 17, 2013 at 09:51 PM (#4417470)
The Spurs are really limping to the finish line here. 5-7 in their last 12, and looking possible they drop a home game to Minnesota.
   643. RollingWave Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:00 PM (#4417480)
I think it's safe to say the Jazz are done, now let's see what happens in the Lakers / Rockets game, I honestly have no idea what would happen since this Laker team only existed for 1 game so far. if it was the Kobe Lakers I think the odds aren't too bad, but now? I don't know.

   644. RollingWave Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:05 PM (#4417483)
The Jazz are at risk of scoring less than 70 points in a must win game.. ouch.
   645. nick swisher hygiene Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:08 PM (#4417490)
My man John Henson, whose talents were disparaged earlier in this very thread, putting up 28 and 16 to lead the Bucks as they run roughshod over the Thunder...bench.
   646. Maxwn Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:11 PM (#4417494)
The Jazz are at risk of scoring less than 70 points in a must win game.. ouch.

The Grizzlies will do that kind of thing to you every now and then.
   647. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:18 PM (#4417502)
I'm surprised the Hawks conceded the 5 seed by resting everyone against the Knicks' backups. The Bulls are barely scraping by the Wizards while riding everyone.
   648. Maxwn Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:25 PM (#4417505)
Pretty sure whoever the pbp guy on this Grizz-Jazz game is just made some reference to the grizzlies "trading away their best player." No.
   649. Booey Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:27 PM (#4417507)
70 points on 32% shooting in an elimination game. Nice.

Well, that's that.

Of course, Kanter was injured down the stretch run, so the entire playoffs was going to require a "footnote" anyway. ;-)
   650. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:27 PM (#4417508)
Sad to see the Jazz season end, but their odds of getting the top pick in the lottery are probably higher than beating the Thunder. I just wish I could be confident this is the last time I see Corbin and Jefferson on the Jazz.
   651. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:29 PM (#4417511)
The real action this season (and really, every season for a while now) will be in the West. The WC playoffs are going to be brutal.


The difference at the top is pretty amazing this year. Five 55 (56?) win teams, while the East has one. One of Memphis and LAC will be out in round 1; either would the prohibitive favorite to meet Miami in the ECF.

I'm surprised the Hawks conceded the 5 seed by resting everyone against the Knicks' backups. The Bulls are barely scraping by the Wizards while riding everyone.


I'm not - who would you rather see in the playoffs? Indiana/NY/Boston or Brooklyn/Miami? I guess Brooklyn is the easier 1st round opponent, but the Hawks could beat any of those other teams in a series (wouldn't pick them, but wouldn't shock me, either) and maybe reach the ECF this route. It's also one more round for something bad to happen to one of the Heat's stars and the window to squeeze open ever so slightly.

   652. RollingWave Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:32 PM (#4417513)
Dear Rockets:

Please just run the Lakers off the court.

   653. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:32 PM (#4417514)
Of course, Kanter was injured down the stretch run, so the entire playoffs was going to require a "footnote" anyway. ;-)


I've been editing a 5,000 word screed on why this is a footnote season because of Rondo's injury since February - I'll be posting it as soon as the Celtics are eliminated.

Sorry, Jazz fans, I was rooting for you tonight, at the very lease to make that Lakers/Rockets game have some meaning.

   654. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:49 PM (#4417529)
Also, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Grizzlies don't miss Rudy Gay.
   655. Maxwn Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:56 PM (#4417534)
Also, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Grizzlies don't miss Rudy Gay.

No. Honestly, Prince has fit in so well, I think I would have done the deal for him straight up from a basketball perspective (I know the salaries don't match up), at least knowing what I know now. And I like Ed Davis. The financial flexibility in future years is obviously a big selling point going forward. That increasingly looks like an hell of trade by the new front office. They're eventually going to get knocked out in the playoffs but its gonna be because the West is absurdly good at the top end and not because they miss Rudy. I'm sure a bunch of people will say otherwise though.
   656. Honkie Kong Posted: April 17, 2013 at 10:59 PM (#4417536)
I'm surprised the Hawks conceded the 5 seed by resting everyone against the Knicks' backups. The Bulls are barely scraping by the Wizards while riding everyone.

Mentioned this a couple of pages back, once Brooklyn seemed to clinch the 4 seed. Hawks match up well against the Pacers. Historically, Josh Smith gives them headaches. And it pushes the Heat off by one more round as JoeC mentions. I think it is much the better route for the Hawks if anything is going to happen.
   657. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:02 PM (#4417540)
I'm embarrassed to say that I really could care less about tonight's Laker game what with the Jazz giving them a free ticket in. With Bryant gone and Nash gimpy, they're basically Dead Man Walking for the playoffs. I'm a spoiled Laker fan, so any season that doesn't stand a chance at a title isn't a season I'm particularly interested in. I know, I sound like a ####. That's just where the bar sits for the Lakers at this point in time, and this squad falls way short of it.

They're going to get blown off the floor by Oklahoma City. I'll watch, and I know they'll play hard, and I'll live and die with each game because I'm incapable of shrugging off stuff like this. But they have no chance, and we all know it. I don't get jacked up for executions.
   658. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:04 PM (#4417543)
By the way, I have to mention how much I admire the Jazz fans for wanting so badly to be in a position that I'm so completely blasé about. That's good fandom right there.

Goudelock getting early minutes, nine guys already have hit the floor for LA. The difference between the 7th and 8th seeds could be pretty big. It'd take a pretty strong effort to run with Houston, but we're not talking about OKC here, and a chance to dodge OKC would be helpful for the Lakers.
   659. Maxwn Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:07 PM (#4417547)
Kings hanging in there after 1 against the Clips. Hope Cousins goes for fifty on them.
   660. tshipman Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:10 PM (#4417549)
I would appreciate it if you would name the two Centers that you'd rank above Gasol this year.


Tyson Chandler and Dwight Howard.

I'd probably also take Duncan over Gasol as well.
   661. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:21 PM (#4417560)
"Trying and Sacramento don't go together. They haven't tried ALL YEAR."
— Jeff Van Gundy.
   662. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:42 PM (#4417577)
I'm not - who would you rather see in the playoffs? Indiana/NY/Boston or Brooklyn/Miami? I guess Brooklyn is the easier 1st round opponent, but the Hawks could beat any of those other teams in a series (wouldn't pick them, but wouldn't shock me, either) and maybe reach the ECF this route. It's also one more round for something bad to happen to one of the Heat's stars and the window to squeeze open ever so slightly.

I'm sorry, but the idea that the Bulls or Hawks could have the gall to think ahead of the first round and try to strategically avoid Miami is just so absurd, I just will never see it. Even if the Hawks do think they match up ok against Indy, they have to realize the Pacers are a significantly better team than the Nets. From a big picture standpoint, both the Hawks or Bulls would have to be ok with winning just one round all things considered; IOW not making the ECF isn't a disappointment. I think the Bulls are probably 50/50 to beat the Nets and the Hawks are 20/80 at best to beat Indy; those odds are probably the same if the matchups were switched.

Pretty sure whoever the pbp guy on this Grizz-Jazz game is just made some reference to the grizzlies "trading away their best player." No.

I caught a minute or two of the NBA pregame on ESPN and Simmons said something about how surprised he was with Memphis and how good they are. Rose made some comment about not having a closer anymore; Simmons said they still have Conley, etc; Rose said he wasn't proven in the playoffs. Hello, Rudy Gay is? He was injured when they beat the Spurs. The narrative trumping facts is so ridiculous sometimes.

Tyson Chandler and Dwight Howard.

I'd probably also take Duncan over Gasol as well.


FWIW, minutes played this year: Chandler - 2164, Howard - 2676, Duncan - 2051, Gasol - 2769. I don't think there's any way Chandler and Duncan's quality can make up that minute difference (and I don't concede their quality was clearly better than Gasol this year).
   663. RollingWave Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:58 PM (#4417580)
Rocket's doing a pretty good job containing Howard / Gasol so far, I guess it's not hard to draw up a game plan of "double team both and dare Blake / Meek to shoot 20 3s"

   664. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 17, 2013 at 11:59 PM (#4417581)
Pretty much. For those wanting to say that the Lakers would be better without Kobe's ball-hogging ways, I give you today.
   665. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:02 AM (#4417582)
I think the general issue with Kobe this year wasn't the offense part, it most more that Kobe + Nash must be on the list of the worse defensive back court ever thing.
   666. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:04 AM (#4417583)
Simmons said they still have Conley, etc; Rose said he wasn't proven in the playoffs. Hello, Rudy Gay is? He was injured when they beat the Spurs. The narrative trumping facts is so ridiculous sometimes.

That is funny. Mike Conley has actually been the leading wing scorer on a playoff team that won a series and took another good team to 7 before. ####, Mike Conley was arguably the best perimeter player on a playoff team that Rudy Gay was on.

Not that I would argue that Conley was particularly fantastic in any of those series, but if you're just playing the playoff experience/provenness card, Conley's got Gay pretty easy, I think.
   667. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:05 AM (#4417584)
Oh, we all knew that, but there are a lot of "haters" (I use that term cautiously) who have made the claim after last game that the Lakers are better with Bryant off the court.
   668. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:10 AM (#4417585)
it most more that Kobe + Nash must be on the list of the worse defensive back court ever thing.

Steve Blake is pissed that he didn't get a mention in this comment.
   669. Booey Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:24 AM (#4417587)
By the way, I have to mention how much I admire the Jazz fans for wanting so badly to be in a position that I'm so completely blasé about. That's good fandom right there.


It's all about expectations. In a season like this, a first round playoff appearance was about the most Jazz fans could've realistically hoped for, so we would've had to consider that a success.

But I understand how you feel. If the Jazz had struggled to make the playoffs at any time in the 90's when they should've been winning 55-60 games, I would've been pretty blah about it too (1993 was kinda like that).
   670. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:37 AM (#4417595)
oh look, it's the bizzaro Kevin McHale Small lineup with no player maker thing .
   671. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:41 AM (#4417596)
The Laker bigs have slammed the door, and Houston's missing shots. I don't know how, but the Lakers are shooting under 40% and still in this game.
   672. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:46 AM (#4417598)
i'm unable to figure out when Jeremy Lin sit out for nearly an entire quarter in a game where he was doing pretty well.

   673. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:48 AM (#4417599)
The Laker bigs have slammed the door, and Houston's missing shots. I don't know how, but the Lakers are shooting under 40% and still in this game.
it didn't help that they had Deflino at the 4 for like 15 minutes for some inexplicable reason.
   674. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:49 AM (#4417600)
Wondering the same thing, Wave. McHale doesn't use Lin particularly well, it seems to me. (But I'm biased WRT Lin.)
   675. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:50 AM (#4417601)
C'mon Sacramento, get this done.
   676. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:52 AM (#4417603)
Damn it, I jinxed them.
   677. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:55 AM (#4417604)
Wondering the same thing, Wave. McHale doesn't use Lin particularly well, it seems to me. (But I'm biased WRT Lin.)


It seems mostly a manifestation of him having too much of a leash on Harden / Delfino than anything else. I'm really not sure why they went away from a game plan that was obviously working early on.

Lin has his issues, but come on, you can't put a small lineup with Patrick Beverly out there and expect good things to happen, both too small to defend and not enough play making to score. it's the worst of both worlds.

Also, it should note that they do have cap on Lin's minutes this season for obvious concerns of his knee.
   678. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:59 AM (#4417605)
Last possession games, heh, the Rockets have done well in like 2 out of 20 of those this year.
   679. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:59 AM (#4417606)
Lakers with two bad possessions in the last 90 seconds, and are 0-fer their last seven shots. You know who'd be useful right now?

Sigh.
   680. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:02 AM (#4417607)
well it looks like the Lakers will win, like I said, Rockets are terrible in 1 possession games.
   681. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:05 AM (#4417608)
Holy ####.
   682. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:05 AM (#4417609)
Holy crap.
   683. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:06 AM (#4417610)
oops, spoke too soon lol.
   684. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:06 AM (#4417611)
Oh, lord.
   685. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:11 AM (#4417614)
That is a little too much standing there holding the ball, James Harden and Jeremy Lin.
   686. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:11 AM (#4417615)
Jeremy Lin has been awful in this fourth quarter and OT.
   687. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:12 AM (#4417616)
Lakers 0-5 in overtime, 0-7 at the end of regulation. The only way they can get on the board is to pound it inside and try and pick up fouls. There's nobody who can create their own shot.

Another turnover.
   688. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:13 AM (#4417617)
Primer retweet:
@johnhollinger Til now, 125 of 126 teams to win at least 56 games since league went to current format had home court advantage in 1st round. #onepercenters

So that's awesome.
   689. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:15 AM (#4417618)
Love me some semi-vintage Pau Gasol.
   690. Guts Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:17 AM (#4417619)
This has been quite the game. Was that baseline dunk the most important play of Meeks' career?
   691. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:18 AM (#4417621)
is it too much to ask for 2 miracle shots in one game?
   692. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:28 AM (#4417624)
Holy crap. I can't believe they survived that! The defense by D12 and Gasol down low was exactly what Laker fans had envisioned from the front line this season. Finally, in the last two games, it's shown up.
   693. tshipman Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:38 AM (#4417627)
So, I feel like the Spurs are probably the best case scenario for the Lakers. They'd lose in 4 against OKC.

I feel like they have a better chance to beat the Spurs than anyone else in the west save GSW (who are not very good).
   694. robinred Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:53 AM (#4417630)
All three Lakers/Spurs games were decided by 5 points or less, FWIW (not much). This also sets up Beard and Co. vs. the Thunder, which should be very entertaining.

The MEM/LAC series has everything--good teams, matchups, subplots, a superstar, and bad blood.

That said, last year Hollinger said the playoffs would be the "San Antonio Invitational." He was wrong as it turned out, but I will steal his phrase: I think this is the Miami Invitational. I will be pretty surprised, assuming Wade is OK physically, if anybody makes Miami go 7.
   695. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:56 AM (#4417632)
To me the biggest question for the playoffs is does rose get ruled out at the start or do we have 2 rounds of hearing about a possible return?
I wish they would just come out and say he is out for the year if he isnt coming back. end the madness already
   696. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:59 AM (#4417634)
So, I feel like the Spurs are probably the best case scenario for the Lakers. They'd lose in 4 against OKC.
Agree. At the very least, the Lakers have a non-zero chance of taking a series with San Antonio to six or seven games, whereas they're dust against OKC. What will be curious will be to see just how Nash does against Parker, and how healthy both those guys will be.

Feeling a lot more interested in the playoffs now than I was four hours ago.
   697. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:02 AM (#4417637)
All three Lakers/Spurs games were decided by 5 points or less, FWIW (not much). This also sets up Beard and Co. vs. the Thunder, which should be very entertaining.

The MEM/LAC series has everything--good teams, matchups, subplots, a superstar, and bad blood.
Don't forget Denver-GSW, though that series lost some of its luster with the injuries Denver suffered late.
   698. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:32 AM (#4417646)
I feel like they have a better chance to beat the Spurs than anyone else in the west save GSW (who are not very good).

This sentence confused the hell out of me for about 5 mins until I realized that you meant that the Lakers had a better chance of beating SAS than they did of beating anyone else other than GSW, which I actually agree with. At first I thought you meant that they were the best bet of knocking off the Spurs out of any team in the west other than the warriors which made no sense at all. Anyway it makes perfect sense now that I see it, so I have no real point other than if it turns out that I read it right the first time, you are a crazy person.

Honestly, this Lakers team as it is currently constructed sort of reminds me a bit of a goofy inverse of that 2010 Grizz team that knocked off the Spurs. 2 excellent post players (if Gasol and Howard are both right, which they looked like tonight) and a pretty ramshackle collection of wings. Only that Grizz team sucked on offense and was pretty decent on defense and this Lakers team sucks on defense and is pretty fair on offense. You can even run a rich man's impersonation of that Grizz offense with Howard and Pau where you just do straight post-ups of Howard some and then run some high-low stuff with Howard on the block and Gasol in the high post(this strategy works for all possible Gasols) where you take advantage of Gasol's passing ability to get Howard some deep touches in the paint and otherwise either get you some open looks on the perimeter, where you can in theory shoot better than any of those Grizz wings could or have Pau knock down elbow jumpers. They'll get lit up worse on defense than that team did, unless Dwight and Pau keep flashing some vintage defensive chops, but they should be able to score somewhat more effectively, particularly if Nash can play at any degree of effectiveness.

I mean, it's kind of nuts, but that Grizz team beat what was a better Spurs team, imo, playing a wing rotation of Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, Tony Allen, Sam Young, Shane Battier, and a little bit of Greivis Vazquez. I don't know, if I was Mike D'Antoni, I'd watch some tape of that series. But I probably need to quit drinking before I talk myself into this.
   699. Maxwn Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:40 AM (#4417654)
Basically, if Pau is playing well, I'd try to run the ball through him as much as possible, as he is probably the best combination of individual scoring ability and good decision making they have left unless Nash is healthy and playing at near-full strength.
   700. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:55 AM (#4417656)
flip
Page 7 of 13 pages ‹ First  < 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
A triple short of the cycle
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 8-21-2014
(55 - 11:54pm, Aug 21)
Last: TerpNats

NewsblogMegdal: Humble shortstop Marty Marion should be in Hall contention
(51 - 11:54pm, Aug 21)
Last: DanG

Newsblog10 episodes of ‘The Simpsons’ every sports fan needs to watch
(22 - 11:53pm, Aug 21)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogOT: Politics, August 2014: DNC criticizes Christie’s economic record with baseball video
(4805 - 11:47pm, Aug 21)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogPosnanski: The Royals might actually know what they are doing
(81 - 11:47pm, Aug 21)
Last: Spahn Insane

NewsblogDowney: Let Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame already
(24 - 11:45pm, Aug 21)
Last: Jose Can Still Seabiscuit

NewsblogAngels Acquire Gordon Beckham
(17 - 11:44pm, Aug 21)
Last: The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward

NewsblogGrantland: The Top Prospect Progress Poll.
(4 - 11:41pm, Aug 21)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread August, 2014
(483 - 11:11pm, Aug 21)
Last: ursus arctos

NewsblogOT August 2014:  Wrassle Mania I
(57 - 10:56pm, Aug 21)
Last: Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge

NewsblogCubs place struggling Edwin Jackson on the disabled list
(46 - 10:32pm, Aug 21)
Last: Brian C

NewsblogFG: Brian McCann Probably Couldn’t Be Given Away For Free
(25 - 10:10pm, Aug 21)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogJapan Today: Fanatic fans oblivious to sleazy side of Koshien high school baseball
(6 - 9:51pm, Aug 21)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight

NewsblogCurt Schilling Reveals He Was Diagnosed With Mouth Cancer in February, Believes Chewing Tobacco Was the Cause
(39 - 9:50pm, Aug 21)
Last: Dog on the sidewalk

NewsblogPhillies have decisions to make heading into '15
(6 - 9:18pm, Aug 21)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.5629 seconds
52 querie(s) executed