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Monday, April 01, 2013

OT: NBA Monthly Thread - April 2013

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: the Oxford comma and unspeakable criminal acts.

 

The District Attorney Posted: April 01, 2013 at 11:27 AM | 1276 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   701. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: April 18, 2013 at 03:34 AM (#4417658)
flip
   702. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: April 18, 2013 at 06:57 AM (#4417682)
EAST:
MIA over MIL in 5
CHI over BKN in 7

MIA over CHI in 6

IND over ATL in 5
NYK over BOS in 7

NYK over IND in 7

MIA over NYK in 5

WEST:
OKC over HOU in 5
LAC over MEM in 7

OKC over LAC in 6

DEN over GSW in 5
SAS over LAL in 7

DEN over SAS in 7

OKC over DEN in 6

FINALS:
MIA over OKC in 7
   703. bob gee Posted: April 18, 2013 at 07:48 AM (#4417691)
fell asleep in the first quarter and woke up right before halftime of the rox/lakers game, then went back to sleep. and rooting for the rockets, i am so glad i didn't stay up for the game - from reading the comments and checking out the play summary, this game encapsulates the reasons why mchale is a terrible coach:

playing a chunk of the time with neither harden or lin on the floor
limited pick and rolls / lots of harden 1 on 4s after time outs/during important times.
going small ball where delfino guards a much bigger / better rebounder.
not letting lin be the point guard (he's not a spot up 3 point shooter) so that either he scores, passes to an open guy, or harden gets opportunities with only one guy on him.
having awful substitution patterns that are often predicated on how the guy looks rather than results.
and from earlier in the season - not using his bench enough so that they can get experience / sub in to spots that they can relieve tired players (ie. the bigs).

and since i made the comment earlier about worse plays/substitutions, i don't know if ty corbin is worse...but now that i've seen him a few times, he's definitely in the race with mchale.

it's funny some of the comments i'll read on the boards along the lines of either "mchale got a young club to the playoffs!" or "mchale's been around the nba 30 years, he knows more than (all posters)." and i think back to similar comments to baseball in the 80s...
   704. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: April 18, 2013 at 08:08 AM (#4417698)
Soccer - basketball crossover!

I have no idea what Howard Bryant means by this article. He seems to want to do away with the conferences, which is fine I guess, but the system he's describing has nothing to do with the English soccer pyramid. You guys figure it out!

   705. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: April 18, 2013 at 08:58 AM (#4417716)
Should the awards ballot stuff be posted at the top of every page until the voting period closes?
   706. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 18, 2013 at 09:38 AM (#4417760)
It's that time...for the first time! Your 2012-13 BBTF NBA Awards!

Here's how it works...respond in the thread in the following categories:

Most Valuable Player (specify top 5 in order; voting will be 10/7/5/3/1)
Defensive Player of Year (top 3; voting will be 5/3/1)
Sixth Man of the Year (top 3)
Rookie of the Year (top 3)
Coach of the Year (top 3)

(Vote for most improved player if you want, but I don't care about it and neither should you.)

I'll tally the results and report back. Voting is open from now until next Tuesday, April 23rd.
   707. AROM Posted: April 18, 2013 at 10:46 AM (#4417827)
EAST:
MIA over MIL in 4
BKN over CHI in 7

MIA over BKN in 4

IND over ATL in 5
BOS over NYK in 6

IND over BOS in 7

MIA over IND in 5

WEST:
OKC over HOU in 5
MEM over LAC in 7

OKC over MEM in 7

DEN over GSW in 5
LAL over SAS in 7

DEN over LAL in 4

OKC over DEN in 7

FINALS:
MIA over OKC in 7
   708. tshipman Posted: April 18, 2013 at 10:57 AM (#4417841)
Basically, if Pau is playing well, I'd try to run the ball through him as much as possible, as he is probably the best combination of individual scoring ability and good decision making they have left unless Nash is healthy and playing at near-full strength.


I dunno what to make of Pau these days. I feel like I cannot objectively assess him as I am now so depressed by his poor performance compared to who he was two to three years ago. I feel like he's a bad player, but all his numbers are in fact above average.

Sorry about the misleading sentence re: Spurs. Poorly phrased on my part, but I'm glad it eventually untangled itself.
   709. jmurph Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:14 AM (#4417851)
EAST:
MIA over MIL in 4
BKN over CHI in 6

MIA over BKN in 5

IND over ATL in 5
BOS over NYK in 6

IND over BOS in 5

MIA over IND in 5

WEST:
OKC over HOU in 5
MEM over LAC in 6

OKC over MEM in 6

DEN over GSW in 6
LAL over SAS in 6

DEN over LAL in 7

OKC over DEN in 4

FINALS:
MIA over OKC in 5
   710. Spivey Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:17 AM (#4417854)
EAST:
MIA over MIL in 4
CHI over BKN in 7

MIA over CHI in 5

IND over ATL in 5
NYK over BOS in 6

IND over NYK in 6

MIA over IND in 5

WEST:
OKC over HOU in 5
MEM over LAC in 6

OKC over MEM in 6

DEN over GSW in 5
SAS over LAL in 5

SAS over DEN in 7

OKC over SAS in 6

FINALS:
MIA over OKC in 7
   711. Manny Coon Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:19 AM (#4417855)
OKC in 4
SAS in 7
DEN in 5
LAC in 5

MIA in 4
IND in 5
CHI in 6
NYK in 5

OKC in 5
SAS in 6

MIA in 5
IND in 7

OKC in 5
MIA in 5

OKC in 6
   712. Spivey Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:23 AM (#4417859)
People are talking about things setting up well for the Lakers, which is true. But I think things set up *really* well for the Spurs.

The Lakers without Kobe, and then Denver without their best or second best player and without home court.

I'd rather play the Lakers than Houston right now, and I'd rather play Denver than Memphis or LAC.
   713. nick swisher hygiene Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:31 AM (#4417867)
712--hang on, do you have hard info on Faried?
   714. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:37 AM (#4417872)
EAST:
MIA over MIL in 5
CHI over BKN in 6
NYK over BOS in 7
IND over ATL in 6

MIA over CHI in 6
IND over NYK in 7

MIA over IND in 4

WEST:
OKC over HOU in 5
LAC over MEM in 7
GSW over DEN in 6
SAS over LAL in 5

OKC over LAC in 5
SAS over GSW in 4

OKC over SAS in 6

FINALS:
MIA over OKC in 6
   715. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:40 AM (#4417879)
[713] Faried is, at best, the 4th best player on the team.
   716. JJ1986 Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:44 AM (#4417885)
[713] Faried is, at best, the 4th best player on the team.


Either way, they aren't missing their 2 best players because Lawson is playing.
   717. jmurph Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:44 AM (#4417887)
People are talking about things setting up well for the Lakers, which is true. But I think things set up *really* well for the Spurs.


The great West playoff set-up sort of fell apart in the last couple weeks, eh? I could obviously be proven wrong as things unfold over the next several weeks, but it seems to me that OKC can start printing Finals tickets now.
   718. Spivey Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:48 AM (#4417889)


Either way, they aren't missing their 2 best players because Lawson is playing.


I worded that poorly. I meant Gallo is their best or second best player, not that they were missing both. It's all very close on their team, but I think losing Gallo hurts them fairly significantly.
   719. nick swisher hygiene Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:49 AM (#4417890)
edit--ah, got it......yeah, agreed about Gallo obviously. Not sure how many superstar performances from Wilson Chandler can be reasonably expected...
   720. andrewberg Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:52 AM (#4417895)
But I think things set up *really* well for the Spurs.


Schedule sets up well, health sets up poorly.
   721. JJ1986 Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:53 AM (#4417896)
I worded that poorly. I meant Gallo is their best or second best player, not that they were missing both. It's all very close on their team, but I think losing Gallo hurts them fairly significantly.


Yeah, that makes sense. I read it wrong, but you are right that they are definitely missing one of their best players.
   722. Booey Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:58 AM (#4417900)
WEST:
OKC over HOU 4-0
SAS over LAL 4-2
DEN over GSW 4-2
LAC over MEM 4-3

OKC over LAC 4-2
SAS over DEN 4-3

OKC over SAS 4-1

EAST:
MIA over MIL 4-0
NYK over BOS 4-2
IND over ATL 4-1
BKN over CHI 4-3

MIA over BKN 4-0
NYK over IND 4-3

MIA over NYK 4-1

FINALS:
MIA over OKC 4-2


First consecutive Finals rematch since Bulls/Jazz in 97/98. I also realize that I picked the home team in every series, something that's only happened like once ever, IIRC. Problem is, it looks to me like injuries may spoil several potential upsets:

The way the Spurs limped into the playoffs, I might've picked the Lakers to beat them, but not without Kobe or a fully healthy Nash. I certainly would've picked Denver to beat them in the 2nd round, but not without Gallo or a healthy Lawson. I also really wanted to pick Memphis over the Clips, but LAC took the season series 3-1 and have HC, so I couldn't quite do it. In the East, I think Boston would've been even money to beat the Knicks if they had Rondo, but they don't. And even without Rose, I think Chicago would've beaten Brooklyn if all their other players were healthy, but...

Hate to say it, but with all the injuries, the Jazz not being there, and the eventual champion being pretty much a foregone conclusion, I have less interest in this years playoffs than in almost any other season since I became a fan. Too bad, cuz the regular season was a pretty good one.
   723. Booey Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:14 PM (#4417922)
Anyone up for making a friendly contest out of the playoffs? We could come up with a points system and I could tally the results after each round if anyone is interested.
   724. andrewberg Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:17 PM (#4417926)
I think the Heat are the favorite, but I think they are a plurality favorite, not majority. If they make it to the finals against OKC or SA, they will probably be a 60/40 favorite at best, and there are plenty of things that could go wrong before that. I would put the odds at roughly- Miami 45%, OKC 25%, SA 15%, field 15% (I am not totally rulilng out LAC, MEM, DEN, NYK, IND, CHI).
   725. Booey Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:21 PM (#4417928)
Add on to my 723:

Of course, since everyone is picking the same Finals teams and almost everyone has picked the same champion, the first two rounds look like they would determine the winner.
   726. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:51 PM (#4417973)
(I am not totally rulilng out LAC, MEM, DEN, NYK, IND, CHI).


Is Chicago on this list on the small chance that Rose comes back and he's his old self and Lebron gets hurt? I mean...

What odds would you put on NYK or Ind? I'd have them at, oh, I don't know, 1% back of the envelope...at best.

Here's my math; take the Knicks: I'll give them a 65/35 chance to beat Boston, 55/45 vs Indiana - that's about 36%. Then, oh, 10% to beat Miami, maybe? So we're at 3.6%. Now, OKC let's say in the finals...that's probably 75/25 OKC - so 0.9%.

I think Miami is something like 75% to make the Finals out of the East - which jibes well with berg's 45% guess - 60/40 favorite in the finals, 45% overall - basically don't suffer a major injury and don't play like total ####. I think they beat anyone in the East 90% (or more) of the time in a seven game series.
   727. Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:53 PM (#4417977)
WEST:
OKC over HOU 4-1
SAS over LAL 4-2
DEN over GSW 4-3
LAC over MEM 4-3

OKC over LAC 4-2
SAS over DEN 4-3

OKC over SAS 4-2

EAST:
MIA over MIL 4-0
NYK over BOS 4-2
IND over ATL 4-1
CHI over BKN 4-3

MIA over CHI 4-0
IND over NYK 4-3

MIA over IND 4-0

FINALS:
MIA over OKC 4-2

The people picking LAL over the Spurs are way too optimistic. The Lakers in the two no-Kobe games shot 36.5% and 36.7%. It doesn't matter how good the defense is, nobody can shoot like that and win playoff series against San Antonio. If Parker's health is a problem for the Spurs, will stretch the series, but It's hard for me to give better odds than 3-to-1 on the Lakers. Then again, I didn't have them making the playoffs. Wrong by two games. I'd give better margins for SAS in the first two rounds but for injuries.

GSW is going to make Denver miserable. Home court will win it for Denver, but the injuries really limit them going forward. Griz-Clips will be similarly close, and home court will have a big impact here, too. I can totally see this as being the nastiest of the eight series going in. Bulls-Nets will be the second nastiest.

I have Miami going fo-fo-fo through the conference run. I just think they're that good, and they match up against OKC well. KD will have his games, but the Heat's perimeter D matches up well with OKC's, and the Thunder won't be able to pound the ball.
   728. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 18, 2013 at 12:54 PM (#4417978)
EAST:
MIA over MIL 4-0
NYK over BOS 4-3
IND over ATL 4-2
BKN over CHI 4-3

MIA over BKN 4-0
IND over NYK 4-2

MIA over IND 4-1

WEST:
OKC over HOU 4-1
SAS over LAL 4-1
DEN over GSW 4-1
LAC over MEM 4-3

OKC over LAC 4-2
SAS over DEN 4-3

OKC over SAS 4-1

FINALS:
MIA over OKC 4-2

Notes:
-- Really wanted to pick the Celtics over the Knicks, but the Knicks are better enough on paper added the uncertainty over Garnett's health and I just couldn't objectively do it. Celtics in 6 wouldn't shock me in the least, though.
-- I agree the Lakers over Spurs pick is way optimistic. I picked the Spurs in five - I bet there will be 3-4 very close games, but there's no way I can back a team with Blake and Meeks in the backcourt to knock off the Spurs.
-- Nearly picked the Warriors to push Denver to 7, but Denver is too damn good at home to lose to a team that plays D like Golden State.
-- That said, also nearly picked the Nuggets to knock off the Spurs and reach the WCF.
-- Miami looks unbeatable in the East; OKC is certainly beatable in the West, but they are the clear favorite.
-- Imagine the Finals we could have had if the Thunder had just held on to Harden...sigh.
   729. andrewberg Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:04 PM (#4417997)
Is Chicago on this list on the small chance that Rose comes back and he's his old self and Lebron gets hurt? I mean...

What odds would you put on NYK or Ind? I'd have them at, oh, I don't know, 1% back of the envelope...at best.

Here's my math; take the Knicks: I'll give them a 65/35 chance to beat Boston, 55/45 vs Indiana - that's about 36%. Then, oh, 10% to beat Miami, maybe? So we're at 3.6%. Now, OKC let's say in the finals...that's probably 75/25 OKC - so 0.9%.

I think Miami is something like 75% to make the Finals out of the East - which jibes well with berg's 45% guess - 60/40 favorite in the finals, 45% overall - basically don't suffer a major injury and don't play like total ####. I think they beat anyone in the East 90% (or more) of the time in a seven game series.


Yes, Chicago only based on Rose possibility. Not likely at all, but that's why I say I don't rule them out.

For the Knicks, those are their odds if they have the toughest possible road against all healthy opponents. If one of the big three is out, they have better than a 10% chance against Miami. I also think it's conceivable that they make a bajillion threes like Orlando did against Cleveland a few years ago.

I'll put it this way- Miami almost lost to Indiana last year when Bosh got hurt. I don't think they would have won the title if he didn't come back when he did. Is there a chance Wade or Bosh gets hurt at an inopportune moment this year? Definitely, and the team becomes far more beatable. For some reason, it is harder to fathom Lebron getting hurt.
   730. Famous Original Joe C Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:18 PM (#4418029)
If one of the big three is out, they have better than a 10% chance against Miami. I also think it's conceivable that they make a bajillion threes like Orlando did against Cleveland a few years ago.


But realistically, what are the chances of either of those things? Also, don't underestimate the effect of Dwight Howard on that Orlando/Cavs series, who the Cavs simply had no one to handle - he averaged 26 and 13 in that series on 65% shooting, plus 40 and 14 in the clincher. Plus: that Magic team played excellent defense - lead the league in DRtg; the Knicks were, what, 18th? And, that Magic team never should have played in the Conference Finals that year to begin with - if Garnett was healthy, they likely lose to the Celtics (who pushed them to seven and were tied with 8 minutes to play in the 7th game without him). I get what you're saying about the threes, but the similarities with that Magic team and this Knicks team stop there, and a lot more went into the Magic having success in the playfofs that year than hot outside shooting.

Anyway, fine, if you want to say the Knicks or Pacers have a 2% chance of winning the title instead of 1%, fine by me. The top five in the West are all clearly better than any non-Heat East team, so even in a secnario in which they overcome some combination of each other, the Celtics/Hawks, AND the Heat, they'll *still* be a significant underdog. We'll both agree it's a low enough probability that it's basically not worth discussing seriously, right?

I'll put it this way - Miami almost lost to Indiana last year when Bosh got hurt. I don't think they would have won the title if he didn't come back when he did. Is there a chance Wade or Bosh gets hurt at an inopportune moment this year? Definitely, and the team becomes far more beatable. For some reason, it is harder to fathom Lebron getting hurt.


(homer alert)

Why does everyone always point to Indiana here as the team that nearly beat the Heat last year? The Celtics were up 3-2 and had a potential clincher at home! That's "almost beating" a team, not being up 2-1.

(end homer alert)
   731. andrewberg Posted: April 18, 2013 at 01:33 PM (#4418066)
I get what you're saying about the threes, but the similarities with that Magic team and this Knicks team stop there, and a lot more went into the Magic having success in the playfofs that year than hot outside shooting.


I have said it before, but the team that I would keep in mind if I wanted to be optimistic about the Knicks is the 11 Mavs. Chandler, Melo in the Dirk role, floor spacers and low-TO guys in the backcourt, a bench sparkplug who can alter a game, and a midseason lull brought on by injuries. I think the Heat are also better than they were when they lost to Dallas. Still, worth considering. (Your D-Rating point is well-taken, though)

Anyway, fine, if you want to say the Knicks or Pacers have a 2% chance of winning the title instead of 1%, fine by me.


All I'm saying is that if you add up about 2-3% for NY and IND, then something like 3-5% for MEM and LAC, I think you can get to 15% for the field.


Why does everyone always point to Indiana here as the team that nearly beat the Heat last year? The Celtics were up 3-2 and had a potential clincher at home! That's "almost beating" a team, not being up 2-1.


I used Indy as an example because I think it would have been more surprising for them to lose to the Pacers than the Celtics, who have that vaunted postseason pedigree. My point was that if a Bosh injury got them close to losing to the Pacers, it could put them at risk against a great many teams.
   732. smileyy Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4418105)
I'm gonna try this, but I'm not going to pretend it represents much original thought, but rather a blend of my own positions, those culled from here, and those gathered from NBA analysts (Pelton, Lowe, et.al.) that I find compelling.

Most Valuable Player: (Blend of performance and significance to team)
James
Durant
Paul
Anthony
Harden*

Defensive Player of Year: (Blend of on-court performance and "Who would your #1 pick be, if you were drafting solely for defense?")
Marc Gasol
LeBron James**
Tim Duncan

Sixth Man of the Year: (Blend of performance and effectiveness as "glue guy" -- also, nobody should sign these guys to superstar contracts with the belief that magic glue means titles)
J.R. Smith
Kevin Martin***
Jamal Crawford

Rookie of the Year: (Blend of actual performance, with some "This shouldn't look stupid in 5 years")
Lillard
Davis
Drummond****

Coach of the Year:
Woodson
Popovich
Spoelstra

* "Team significance" in lifting the Rockets to the playoffs scores him the 5th spot
** This is all previous demonstrated ability, not actual in-year performance. I expect James and Miami to be suffocating defensively in the playoffs
*** Is he eligible? IIRC, he's not a "starter" for the Thunder, but how is this award defined?
**** This might look stupid in 5 years
   733. smileyy Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:03 PM (#4418111)
EAST:
MIA over MIL 4-0
NYK over BOS 4-2
IND over ATL 4-2
CHI over BKN 4-3

MIA over CHI 4-1
IND over NYK 4-3

MIA over IND 4-2

WEST:
OKC over HOU 4-0
SAS over LAL 4-1
GSW over DEN 4-3
LAC over MEM 4-2

OKC over LAC 4-1
SAS over GSW 4-2

OKC over SAS 4-2

FINALS:
MIA over OKC 4-3
   734. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:04 PM (#4418113)
Byron Scott, fired in Cleveland.

Because if you can't win more than 24 games with Luke Walton and Shaun Livingstone, you have failed at your job.
   735. smileyy Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:28 PM (#4418147)
Slate compiles A Night At The Flop-era
   736. smileyy Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:30 PM (#4418151)
[734] Its an interesting problem -- given a bad team environment, how do you identify underperformers who are hidden in the noise of the bad team? How do you identify stars who are being held back by the bad environment.

I think this is very applicable in professional life.
   737. Manny Coon Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:30 PM (#4418153)
One guy I wanted to vote for Defensive Player of the Year and didn't because he probably hasn't played enough minutes but I think deserves some recognition is Lamar Odom. He's been terrible on the offense this year, but the Clippers are almost 10 points better defensively with Odom on the floor this year.

The Clippers changed their defensive this year, to be more active and aggressive and it's worked out for them, but it is very demanding on their bigs to pressure more aggressively and force more turnovers but still be able to get back and handle the traditional big man duties of protecting the basket and rebounding. Odom is the one guy of their bigs that has been able to do all of this; Griffin and Jordan have seen their steals go up, but have had to sacrifice blocks and rebounds to do it, Hollins and Turiaf aren't quite good enough, but Odom has career highs in rebounds and steals and is blocking shots like he's 5-10 years younger.
   738. AROM Posted: April 18, 2013 at 02:47 PM (#4418183)
The people picking LAL over the Spurs are way too optimistic. The Lakers in the two no-Kobe games shot 36.5% and 36.7%. It doesn't matter how good the defense is, nobody can shoot like that and win playoff series against San Antonio.


I can't argue with that. My picking Lakers in 7 is mostly wishful thinking. I figured I'd pick a few upsets in there and that's a convenient one. Offense is quite a bit weaker without one of the game's alltime great scorers. This should not come as a shock to everyone except the wages of wins crew, who think every shot not taken could automatically be replaced by a league average rate.
   739. jmurph Posted: April 18, 2013 at 03:21 PM (#4418239)
The people picking LAL over the Spurs are way too optimistic. The Lakers in the two no-Kobe games shot 36.5% and 36.7%. It doesn't matter how good the defense is, nobody can shoot like that and win playoff series against San Antonio.


It's more about San Antonio- I think we just can't know what we're getting from them (and believe me, me picking the Lakers should never be called "optimistic").
   740. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 18, 2013 at 05:29 PM (#4418399)
Could be calculating them wrong since I'm not a gambler and doing this in like 3 minutes, but here are the rough odds of a title from Pinnacle Sports:

ATL 0.5%
BOS 0.9%
BRK 1.0%
CHI 1.9%
DEN 4.0%
GS 0.6%
HOU 0.3%
IND 2.9%
LAC 2.9%
LAL 1.0%
MEM 2.3%
MIA 52.2%
MIL 0.2%
NYK 4.0%
OKC 16.4%
SAS 8.8%

Here are the first round series odds

BOS/NYK 23.5/76.5
GS/DEN 18.7/81.3
CHI/BRK 42.6/57.4
MEM/LAC 38.3/61.7
ATL/IND 23.3/76.7
LAL/SAS 11.1/88.9
MIL/MIA 1/99
HOU/OKC 8.1/91.9
   741. rr Posted: April 18, 2013 at 05:30 PM (#4418402)
I think this does probably mean that the Lakers won't get killed--but I am about 85% sure that they will still lose in RD 1.

And, as noted, San Antonio is set up nicely to make the WCF, as they avoid the MEM/LAC pair, and Houston is probably pretty dangerous as well.
   742. Booey Posted: April 18, 2013 at 06:03 PM (#4418449)
So if Miami is a 99/1 favorite over Milwaukee, how much profit would I get if I bet, say, $100 on them to win the series? A buck?

What if I bet the same $100 on them to win the East? The Finals? Never been much of a gambler, but this seems like easy money to me (but probably not enough to make it worth the effort, right?).
   743. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 18, 2013 at 06:20 PM (#4418477)
So if Miami is a 99/1 favorite over Milwaukee, how much profit would I get if I bet, say, $100 on them to win the series? A buck?

What if I bet the same $100 on them to win the East? The Finals? Never been much of a gambler, but this seems like easy money to me (but probably not enough to make it worth the effort, right?).


Yeah so right now at Pinnacle (sure lines are different everywhere) you could bet $100 on Miami to beat the Bucks and you'd get your $100 back plus $0.30! If you bet them to win the East you'd get back a profit of $23.60 on your $100. You'd get back a profit of $68 if you bet $100 on them to win it all.

I'm not a gambler but I follow the lines just because it interests me and it lets me know how much of a chance a team probably has when I'm watching a game.
   744. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: April 18, 2013 at 07:33 PM (#4418555)
EAST:
MIA over MIL 4-0
NYK over BOS 4-2
IND over ATL 4-2
CHI over BKN 4-2

MIA over CHI 4-0
NYK over IND 4-3

MIA over NYK 4-2

WEST:
OKC over HOU 4-1
SAS over LAL 4-1
DEN over GSW 4-2
MEM over LAC 4-3

OKC over MEM 4-2
SAS over DEN 4-3

OKC over SAS 4-1

FINALS:
MIA over OKC 4-2
   745. smileyy Posted: April 18, 2013 at 07:55 PM (#4418571)
I'm not a gambler but I follow the lines just because it interests me and it lets me know how much of a chance a team probably has when I'm watching a game.


Lines are effectively crowdsourced opinions on outcomes, with all the benefits and drawbacks those entail.
   746. It's a shame about Athletic Supporter Posted: April 18, 2013 at 08:12 PM (#4418579)
Gotta pick some upsets.

EAST:
MIA 4-1 MIL
NYK 4-3 BOS
ATL 4-2 IND (I got a feeling)
BKN 4-1 CHI (I'm assuming no Rose)

MIA 4-0 BKN
NYK 4-1 ATL

MIA 4-1 NYK

WEST:
OKC 4-1 HOU
SAS 4-0 LAL
DEN 4-3 GSW
MEM 4-2 LAC

MEM 4-2 OKC (I got another feeling)
SAS 4-1 DEN

SAS 4-1 MEM

FINALS:
MIA 4-2 SAS
   747. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: April 18, 2013 at 08:18 PM (#4418583)
A twist on the predictions:

Pick 5 teams whose seeds add up to *at least* 17 points. Note that the 5 teams can be from any conference.

Points:
20 pts for every playoff win
40 bonus pts for winning a Conference Title
35 bonus pts for winning the NBA Championship
   748. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 08:50 PM (#4418619)
[746] I see your picking the Spurs to upset the Laker, (runs)
   749. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: April 18, 2013 at 09:05 PM (#4418631)
This is based on a quick glance, but it seems like people think the Lakers are going to give the Spurs trouble (with a lot of people thinking the Lakers might beat them) and yet there's a general confidence the Spurs will dispose of the Nuggets. Makes no sense to me. The Nuggets are much, much better than the Lakers.
   750. vagab0nd (no longer an outl13r) Posted: April 18, 2013 at 10:28 PM (#4418722)
EAST:
MIA 4-0 MIL
BOS 4-2 NYK
ATL 4-2 IND
CHI 4-2 BKN

MIA 4-2 CHI
BOS 4-2 ATL

MIA 4-2 BOS

WEST:
OKC 4-1 HOU
SAS 4-1 LAL
DEN 4-3 GSW *
MEM 4-2 LAC

OKC 4-3 MEM
SAS 4-2 DEN

SAS 4-2 OKC **

FINALS:
MIA 4-2 SAS

* Each team wins a road game.
** I'm irrationally overrating the Spurs because of the TMac pickup. I know he's not the TMAC~! of old, but he's still a considerable upgrade over Capt Jack.
   751. RollingWave Posted: April 18, 2013 at 10:48 PM (#4418747)
It doesn't really matter in terms of the playoffs as the Rockets stand no chance anyway, but they really finished pretty poorly, and Harden's April was a pretty good bad Kobe impression, as he shot under 40% from the field and 80% from the line , granted he was also coming off injury. but it's kinda hard to win with him doing that and taking up about as many shots as Melo in the month.

   752. rr Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:03 PM (#4418769)
2 guys picked the Lakers out of about 12 have picked the Lakers, and one of them is a Lakers fan who basically said it was a hopeful pick. The other Lakers' fans have pretty much said, "They probably won't get crushed like they would by OKC" and might take it 6 or 7. Hombre, for example, has the Lakers winning 2 against SA, but Denver winning 3. Given how the Spurs have looked lately, given how well Gasol and Howard have played the last couple of weeks, and given the facts that Gallinari is out and Lawson may not be 100%, these positions are not at all unreasonable.

Also, a SA/DEN series at the moment is a hypothetical. I see that at least one guy (smileyy) has Golden State beating Denver, so I don't think people are counting Denver out as much as we are simply not there yet. My own comments were simply meant to suggest that the Spurs are in pretty solid shape in terms of matchups, in that I don't think either Denver or the Lakers really is a "scary" matchup for the Spurs, like MEM or LAC might be.

Also, while there are some interesting matchups in terms of subplots and playing styles, I have to say that I agree with Booey to some extent. My team got 8th and his ended up 9th, but neither team is/would have been a serious threat, and I think it is pretty obvious who is going to win the whole thing, so I am not that hyped about the postseason.
   753. Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim Posted: April 18, 2013 at 11:21 PM (#4418790)
Also, a SA/DEN series at the moment is a hypothetical. I see that at least one guy (smileyy) has Golden State beating Denver, so I don't think people are counting Denver out as much as we are simply not there yet.
If I could be sure that Bogut was going to be somewhere north of 85% and Faried was south of it, I'd \ take GSW as an upset over Denver. The home court up mile high is just too much of a factor for me to get past.
   754. Maxwn Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:01 AM (#4418819)
Do any of our NYC people have the time and inclination to give me some advice on living in NYC? I've got an opportunity next fall to "take my grad school talents to the Big Apple" as it were, (damn, that sounds so pompous I almost don't even want to write it as a joke. Fire your speechwriters, Lebron. Or if that was you, hire some speechwriters, Lebron) but I'm a bit out of my element and I'm trying to judge the financial feasibility of this, particularly on the housing expense side. Plus I like to check all my major life decisions with my interwebz basketball friends. I'd appreciate it if anybody is willing to talk it over with me.
   755. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:42 AM (#4418846)
[754] Maxwn, check your messages.
   756. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:43 AM (#4418847)
[752] rr, thanks for going through and doing the math. I'm admittedly sensitive about my Nugs.
   757. Booey Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:49 AM (#4418851)
It's good to see a little more variety in the picks start to come through. Through the first ten predictions, no one had picked the Hawks to beat the Pacers or anyone other than the Thunder to win the West. Now we've got two picking ATL in round 1 and two picking the Spurs to reach the Finals. Good on you (I mean, you're wrong of course, cuz your picks are different than mine, but it's still nice to see the change of pace! :-)
   758. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:53 AM (#4418852)
Maxwn, I was a PhD and then law student at Columbia in the recent past. Lived off a PhD stipend for four years. Don't know what your funding situation will be, or what university you're looking at, but Columbia is definitely doable if you're fully funded, though you may be stuck with a shitty roomate or two in graduate housing, at least until you figure out what gentrifying (read: marginal) neighborhood you want to move to that you can afford.
   759. Maxwn Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:01 AM (#4418856)
Maxwn, check your messages.

Sent you an email, NJ. Let me know if you don't see it. Thanks for the help.
   760. rr Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:18 AM (#4418863)
I'm admittedly sensitive about my Nugs.


They have a very good team, and the Lakers don't.

That said, the thing that I think we always need to remember that while who was better over 82 is a big part of the playoff calculus, we are, ultimately, looking at how teams in their current up-to-the-minute state match up with who they are playing this weekend, since, to use the cliche, "Everybody is 0-0."
   761. Amit Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:30 AM (#4418873)
Here are my picks. I still think the Nuggets can make a run, even without Gallo. They still have a strong 8-9 player rotation, are very tough at home, and have shown they can win on the road too. The Hawks haven't had a full team in a while, but now that Horford, Josh, and Teague are healthy, I think they can give the Pacers some trouble.

EAST:
MIA 4-0 MIL
BOS 4-3 NYK
ATL 4-2 IND
CHI 4-3 BKN

MIA 4-1 CHI
ATL 4-3 BOS

MIA 4-1 ATL

WEST:
OKC 4-1 HOU
SAS 4-2 LAL
DEN 4-2 GSW
LAC 4-3 MEM

OKC 4-1 LAC
DEN 4-2 SAS

OKC 4-3 DEN

FINALS:
MIA 4-2 OKC
   762. Maxwn Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:51 AM (#4418879)
Thanks for the response, 'zop. That actually gets at a lot of what I was wondering and was helpful.
   763. It's a shame about Athletic Supporter Posted: April 19, 2013 at 04:07 AM (#4418967)
Simmons's trade value (part 1) column is up -- this might be my favorite thing he writes.
   764. Booey Posted: April 19, 2013 at 11:22 AM (#4419274)
Random thought - are the Nuggets 57 wins the most ever by a team without an All Star?

The 2000 Blazers (59-23) always come to my mind as a similar team with a lot of very good players but no superstars, but I see that 'Sheed made the team.
   765. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: April 19, 2013 at 11:40 AM (#4419304)
I just want to make one silly point:

"Goran Dragic" is not an appropriate name for a point guard. "Goran Dragic" is a lumbering, goony big man with a penchant for hard fouls.
   766. JJ1986 Posted: April 19, 2013 at 11:48 AM (#4419318)
EAST
MIA 4-0 MIL
BOS 4-2 NYK
IND 4-1 ATL
CHI 4-2 BRK

MIA 4-0 CHI
IND 4-3 BOS

MIA 4-1 IND

WEST
OKC 4-2 HOU
SAS 4-3 LAL
DEN 4-1 GS
MEM 4-3 LAC

OKC 4-3 MEM
DEN 4-1 SAS

OKC 4-1 DEN

MIA 4-1 OKC
   767. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:04 PM (#4419344)
Someone smarter than me, is there any way to take all of the predictions posted and roll them up into one aggregate BTF Postseason Projection that averages everything out? Not sure if I'm making sense.
   768. GregD Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:36 PM (#4419372)
Do any of our NYC people have the time and inclination to give me some advice on living in NYC? I've got an opportunity next fall to "take my grad school talents to the Big Apple" as it were, (damn, that sounds so pompous I almost don't even want to write it as a joke. Fire your speechwriters, Lebron. Or if that was you, hire some speechwriters, Lebron) but I'm a bit out of my element and I'm trying to judge the financial feasibility of this, particularly on the housing expense side. Plus I like to check all my major life decisions with my interwebz basketball friends. I'd appreciate it if anybody is willing to talk it over with me.
Glad to chip in as well. Not a New Yorker but have lived here 6 1/2 years and am an academic.
   769. andrewberg Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:37 PM (#4419373)
MIA 4-0 MIL
NYK 4-2 BOS
IND 4-2 ATL
BKN 4-3 CHI

MIA 4-1 BKN
NYK 4-3 IND

MIA 4-2 NYK

OKC 4-1 HOU
SAS 4-1 LAL
DEN 4-2 GS
MEM 4-2 LAC

OKC 4-3 MEM
SAS 4-3 DEN

OKC 4-2 SAS

MIA 4-2 OKC

I have a gut feeling that OKC is going to have a letdown, but I can't figure out where it will be, so I will make these cowardly picks instead.
   770. AROM Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:58 PM (#4419399)
"Goran Dragic" is not an appropriate name for a point guard. "Goran Dragic" is a lumbering, goony big man with a penchant for hard fouls.


Agreed. His game should be more like that of Dragan Tarlac. Who sadly only lasted 1 year in the NBA. Being a DnD player, i had to make use of such a name. The Tarlac Dragon is a fierce and powerful creature making passage through the Tarlac swamp a perilous journey.
   771. Manny Coon Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:21 PM (#4419434)
So Miami seems like the overwhelming favorite against OKC but I'm curious why? Miami did have a better record, but OKC did have a better point differential (+9.2, best since 07-08 Celtics, second best since Jordan Bulls). Is there a general feeling that Heat were holding back all year? Lebron is somehow even better than the 31.6 PER player we saw in the regular season? Or is there something wrong with the Thunder, that would indicate they aren't as good as their numbers? To me, it seems like a really close matchup that could go almost either way, the Heat while very good don't seem indestructible if they run into another very good team, that did lose to the Mavericks in the finals not long ago.
   772. Booey Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:32 PM (#4419450)
Someone smarter than me, is there any way to take all of the predictions posted and roll them up into one aggregate BTF Postseason Projection that averages everything out? Not sure if I'm making sense.


I've been keeping track of all the predictions, and I can post the results at the beginning and end of the playoffs if you want. Like I said earlier, the postseason this year is kinda 'meh' for me, so I needed to do something to keep me interested.
   773. Fourth True Outcome Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:32 PM (#4419451)
MIA 4-0 MIL
NYK 3-4 BOS*
IND 4-1 ATL
BKN 4-2 CHI

MIA 4-0 BKN
IND 4-2 BOS

MIA 4-2 IND

OKC 4-0 HOU
SAS 4-2 LAL
DEN 4-1 GS
MEM 4-3 LAC

OKC 4-3 MEM**
SAS 3-4 DEN

MEM 4-3 DEN

MIA 4-2 MEM

*This is picking against what I think is most likely to happen, but I am a homer.
**This might also be against what I think is most likely to happen, I'm not sure. I love the way Memphis play and think they match up pretty well against OKC, but picking against Durant and Westbrook is always iffy.

Mainly, I'm excited for the Western Conference playoffs. They're going to be thrilling no matter what.
   774. Booey Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:34 PM (#4419452)
So Miami seems like the overwhelming favorite against OKC but I'm curious why?


Miami beat OKC in 5 last year in the Finals, and they played even better this season, whereas OKC lost a top 10 guy in Harden.
   775. smileyy Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:46 PM (#4419473)
Lebron is somehow even better than the 31.6 PER player we saw in the regular season?


Possibly, yes.

I also think the Miami Defense has been playing in second gear most of the season. I suspect they can increase defensive performance in the playoffs.
   776. jmurph Posted: April 19, 2013 at 01:57 PM (#4419482)
Miami beat OKC in 5 last year in the Finals, and they played even better this season, whereas OKC lost a top 10 guy in Harden.


Agree with the sentiment, though it's worth pointing out that Harden was almost aggressively terrible in 3 out of the 5 games in the Finals.
   777. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:01 PM (#4419491)
It's weird to me that people keep talking about OKC losing Harden when by every measure I can tell the team clearly performed better this year. In addition, the implicit assumption that Harden would have made them so much better than Martin is also weird considering that a lot of Harden's awesomeness this year was based on him using a massage % of possessions that he would not be able to use in OKC.

EDIT: Also, put me in the MIA-OKC will be a tight battle and OKC could win camp.
   778. Manny Coon Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:20 PM (#4419511)

Miami beat OKC in 5 last year in the Finals, and they played even better this season, whereas OKC lost a top 10 guy in Harden.


Despite this though, OKC is better this year. Their defense went from 11th in the league last year to 4th this year and they even managed to improve their offense as well. Durant and Westbrook are 24, Ibaka is 23 those are ages where guys are going improve, especially on defense, Sefolosha is older but improved on offense enough to where can play more with hurting the offense, which has also been good, he' always been a very good defender.
   779. AROM Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4419517)
I also think the Miami Defense has been playing in second gear most of the season. I suspect they can increase defensive performance in the playoffs.


So many reasons why Miami has to be overwhelming favorites. The defensive can be frightening when they are fully motivated to use it. Just consider how they played during some of those 20 point comebacks in the streak.

They had easily the best record in the game, last year they were #4 in the regular season, and #3 in 2010-11.

30-2 after the all star break. Even with Lebron and Wade sitting out most of their last 2-3 weeks. The effectiveness of the whole roster has been incredible this year. All of this really comes back to Lebron - a capped out team does not bring in Allen, Battier, Lewis, and Birdman unless you wave the chance of a ring in front of their faces.
   780. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: April 19, 2013 at 02:35 PM (#4419531)
MIA 4-0 MIL
BOS 4-3 NYK
IND 4-1 ATL
CHI 4-2 BKN

MIA 4-2 CHI
IND 4-3 BOS

MIA 4-2 IND

OKC 4-1 HOU
SAS 4-2 LAL
DEN 4-3 GS
LAC 4-3 MEM

OKC 4-1 LAC
SAS 4-3 DEN

OKC 4-2 SAS

MIA 4-3 OKC
   781. Booey Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:06 PM (#4419570)
OKC 4-3 MEM**
SAS 3-4 DEN

MEM 4-3 DEN

MIA 4-2 MEM


#773 -

So OKC beats MEM in 7, but they let the Grizz move on anyway? This league conspiracy to get Memphis into the Finals has reached ridiculous levels.
   782. Maxwn Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:11 PM (#4419577)
So OKC beats MEM in 7, but they let the Grizz move on anyway? This league conspiracy to get Memphis into the Finals has reached ridiculous levels.

Look, it was for basketball reasons. Stern knows what he's doing.
   783. Booey Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:13 PM (#4419581)
So many reasons why Miami has to be overwhelming favorites.

Agreed. When a team won the title the previous season already and this year they look even better, I'd think they should be considered a fairly overwhelming favorite. I'm thinking like 1992 Bulls (2001 Lakers are another, but that's kinda hindsight since they slacked a bit in the regular season).
   784. rr Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:25 PM (#4419588)
I have a gut feeling that OKC is going to have a letdown,


I have said many times that I think they will miss Harden in postseason, but it may be that the defensive gains will override what I am thinking may happen, with the caveat that the playoffs are different than the season. I certainly think that Memphis and Clippers are each capable of beating OKC, but there may be a fatigue factor there, in that it seems likely that MEM/LAC will have to expend enormous energy in that series.

Phil Jackson's people leaked a statement that Phil is "itching" to work in the NBA again, although he is supposedly thinking more in terms of management than coaching, which, given his age, orthopedic health, and recently changed marital status, makes plenty of sense. But, of course it has a lead to a little spec in LA NBA Internetland about Phil's coaching the Clippers if Del Negro gets fired. They are not really a Trianglish team personnel-wise, and there are the Sterling and Jeannie factors, so I don't think it will happen, but if Phil were the Clippers' coach, I think they would be taken very seriously as a title contender with the exact same personnel.

So, for me, the Clippers are the most interesting team in the postseason, although watching from a personal/emotional POV sucks. They were 4th in O and 8th in D; their PYTH was 59-23. They have Paul; they have Griffin, they have some other pretty good players, and they have young guys mixed with some veterans, which I think is usually a good thing for a contender to have.

They could certainly lose to Memphis in 6, but I personally would not be surprised if they are the team that plays Miami for the trophy, even with the much-maligned VDN as coach.
   785. Booey Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:34 PM (#4419597)
Let's see your picks, RR! :-)
   786. Fourth True Outcome Posted: April 19, 2013 at 03:38 PM (#4419603)
Booey: Is it obvious I went back and forth on that one? Obviously, that should be Memphis over the Thunder in 7.
   787. Booey Posted: April 19, 2013 at 04:18 PM (#4419650)
Booey: Is it obvious I went back and forth on that one? Obviously, that should be Memphis over the Thunder in 7.


Yeah, I figured that's what you meant (that's how I put it on my spreadsheet). Mainly I was just feeling like a smarta$$ and it set up post 781 nicely. ;-)
   788. Yardape Posted: April 19, 2013 at 04:22 PM (#4419655)
So, for me, the Clippers are the most interesting team in the postseason, although watching from a personal/emotional POV sucks. They were 4th in O and 8th in D; their PYTH was 59-23. They have Paul; they have Griffin, they have some other pretty good players, and they have young guys mixed with some veterans, which I think is usually a good thing for a contender to have.

They could certainly lose to Memphis in 6, but I personally would not be surprised if they are the team that plays Miami for the trophy, even with the much-maligned VDN as coach.


As a Clippers fan, I feel similar. I'm hopeful in that Paul and Griffin both missed games and sat out large chunks of other games, so perhaps they are better than their seed and will show it during the playoffs. On the other hand, it seemed like they didn't play as well down the stretch, and that worries me a bit. Plus they have a really difficult path, as you say.

I also think the Denver and San Antonio injuries have robbed the playoffs of a lot of intrigue. If those injuries are serious, then the three best healthy teams in the West (Thunder, Clippers, Grizzlies) will match up in the first two rounds.
   789. andrewberg Posted: April 19, 2013 at 04:43 PM (#4419693)
If those injuries are serious, then the three best healthy teams in the West (Thunder, Clippers, Grizzlies) will match up in the first two rounds.


That has been bothering me, too. I do not think they have been the three best across the season, but they could easily be the three best at the moment.
   790. Manny Coon Posted: April 19, 2013 at 04:59 PM (#4419718)
They had easily the best record in the game, last year they were #4 in the regular season, and #3 in 2010-11.


Isn't pythag record usually more useful for predictions an actual record? By that the Heat are 2nd, 3rd and 2nd these last three years, which is more consistent than W/L record and they were only 1 game better this year than 10-11 when they lost to Mavs.

The Thunder on the other hand have jumped from 9th in 10-11, to 4th last year then to 1st this year. They underperformed this some, but it doesn't seem like it would be anything other than random variation given the last couple years they over performed their expected results and Durant is about as good as they get as far go-to scorers go.

Obviously the Heat are really good though and it makes sense they are favorites, given they are defending champs, but the Thunder also seem really good. The last time a team with as good a pythag record as theirs didn't win was the 71-72 Bucks and they lost to an even better team. Of course the 93-94 Sonics had about the same numbers as the Thunder and lost in the first round, so who knows.
   791. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: April 19, 2013 at 05:58 PM (#4419767)
Joakim Noah either won't play against the Nets or he'll be extremely limited due to his recurring plantar fasciitis. This news comes on the heels of Haberstroh's article announcing that Noah led the league this year in distance run per game, as tracked by SportVU, followed closely by Deng (who led the league last season). Thibsball requires so much activity in rotating, hedging, recovery, and closeouts that even at a slow pace they're expending the most energy on the court, and Tom's habit of playing his top players extended minutes seems bound to result in the sort of injury issues with which the Bulls have struggled by the end of the season and in the playoffs every year. Thibs and the medical staff also appear to breed a culture of playing hurt, as Noah, Deng, and Taj have each come back from foot and leg injuries just to hobble around the court in obvious pain in recent weeks. I hope that next season Thibs can adapt his warrior philosophy and substitution patterns to better fit the reality that playoff games are a lot more important than regular season ones.
   792. RollingWave Posted: April 19, 2013 at 09:50 PM (#4420053)
I think it's less that the Thunder will have a let down than the obvious fact that the West is much much deeper than the East, so like.. the odds of one of those teams stepping up a bit more in the playoffs and just flat out play better in 4 out of 7 is pretty signficant.

Meanwhile the Heat would need Lebron to go to the Springsfield house of horror thing (reference to the Simpson episode where Mr Berns called in a team of MLB allstars.) to give other teams a chance. Thunder? they just need Durant / Westbrook to play at the lower end of their expectation.

   793. rr Posted: April 20, 2013 at 12:09 AM (#4420165)
Lowe's picks:

First-Round Predictions

Eastern Conference

Miami in 4
New York in 5
Brooklyn in 7
Indiana in 5

Western Conference

Oklahoma City in 5
San Antonio in 7
Denver in 5
Clippers in 7

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9189557/can-miami-heat-take-another-level-plus-more-questions-2013-nba-playoffs

   794. BurlyBuehrle Posted: April 20, 2013 at 04:14 AM (#4420209)
Yeah so right now at Pinnacle (sure lines are different everywhere) you could bet $100 on Miami to beat the Bucks and you'd get your $100 back plus $0.30! If you bet them to win the East you'd get back a profit of $23.60 on your $100. You'd get back a profit of $68 if you bet $100 on them to win it all.

I'm not a gambler but I follow the lines just because it interests me and it lets me know how much of a chance a team probably has when I'm watching a game.


Is Pinnacle still offering these lines? At the book I use, Miami is listed at -660 to win the East...significantly worse than the $23.60 profit you mention above. (If I do my math correctly, -660 yields a $15.15 profit on a $100 wager.)
   795. Booey Posted: April 20, 2013 at 01:15 PM (#4420339)
First round odds, as per 18 BBTF experts:

OKC/HOU - 100/0 (18/0)
SAS/LAL - 89/11 (16/2)
DEN/GSW - 89/11 (16/2)
LAC/MEM - 50/50 (9/9)

MIA/MIL - 100/0 (18/0)
NYK/BOS - 65/35 (11/7)
IND/ATL - 83/17 (15/3)
CHI/BKN - 65/35 (11/7)


Finals odds:
MIA - 100% (18)
OKC - 83% (15)
SAS - 11% (2)
MEM - 6% (1)
everyone else - 0%

Title odds:
MIA - 94% (17)
OKC - 6% (1)
everyone else - 0%
   796. It's a shame about Athletic Supporter Posted: April 20, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4420376)
I understand whta you are doing there and I'm sure everyone does, but just to be clear 18 people believing that Miami is the favorite to win the title does not mean that we collectively think they have a 94% chance of doing so.

Actually that would have been a fun addition -- what do you think the odds are of Miami winning the title? I'd put it at 45%.
   797. Booey Posted: April 20, 2013 at 02:18 PM (#4420382)
I understand whta you are doing there and I'm sure everyone does, but just to be clear 18 people believing that Miami is the favorite to win the title does not mean that we collectively think they have a 94% chance of doing so.


Correct. The percentages are just the percentage of people who picked them. It's not trying to predict the actual likelihood.
   798. Booey Posted: April 20, 2013 at 02:26 PM (#4420389)
Actually that would have been a fun addition -- what do you think the odds are of Miami winning the title? I'd put it at 45%.


Probably even money at least vs the field. Their odds of winning the East have to be 75% or so, right? If there wasn't always the possibility of catastrophic injury, I'd probably peg it at 90% (winning the East, not the title).
   799. Moses Taylor, Moses Taylor Posted: April 20, 2013 at 03:25 PM (#4420446)
Crap, haven't been around, but wanted to get these in

EAST:
MIA over MIL 4-0
BOS over NYK 4-3
IND over ATL 4-2
CHI over BKN 4-2

MIA over CHI 4-1
IND over BOS 4-3

MIA over IND 4-2

WEST:
OKC over HOU 4-1
SAS over LAL 4-3
DEN over GSW 4-2
MEM over LAC 4-2

OKC over MEM 4-3
SAS over DEN 4-1

OKC over SAS 4-2

FINALS:
MIA over OKC 4-3
   800. puck Posted: April 20, 2013 at 03:26 PM (#4420449)
Nuggets are expected to go with the starting lineup they used the last two games of the season as Faried is not expected to play:

PG – Ty Lawson
SG – Evan Fournier
SF – Andre Iguodala
PF – Wilson Chandler
C – Kosta Koufos
Page 8 of 13 pages ‹ First  < 6 7 8 9 10 >  Last ›

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