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Thursday, April 03, 2014

OT: NBA Monthly Thread - April 2014

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about, which I forgot.

Have posts been building up inside you?

The District Attorney Posted: April 03, 2014 at 05:26 PM | 2387 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   1. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 03, 2014 at 05:31 PM (#4678774)
Damnit, I was on a role in the old one.
   2. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 03, 2014 at 05:34 PM (#4678778)
I would really hate to see it, but Love going to the Celtics is more likely. They have actual trade assets to give up. Plus, the history makes sense. Minnesota has experience in giving superstar Kevins to Boston (McHale from college, McHale giving them Garnett), and as soon as he puts on the uniform the Bird comparisons will be overdone.

I, too, would hate to have to start disliking him.
   3. robinred Posted: April 03, 2014 at 05:40 PM (#4678788)
Responding to AROM from old thread re. KLove:

Yes, Boston is a possibility, as are New York, Dallas, San Antonio, the Lakers, Portland (as a switch-in for Aldridge), Minnesota, and conceivably Miami depending on what The Amigos do--as well as other teams.

If Love lands in Boston or New York, Jim Buss, no matter how reclusive he is, will need to hire The Avengers as his personal security team.
   4. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 03, 2014 at 05:45 PM (#4678794)
The Wolves are doing the right thing here, aren't they? To be actually competitive (as in, a chance to make the finals) in the NBA, you need at least one top 15 player, probably two. Realistically, Minnesota is never going to be able to sign that type of player in free agency unless they're already a winning team. So, unless someone offers a couple lottery picks, their best bet is to do everything they can to keep Love. Maybe you do a sign and trade at the end if there's no way he's coming back (though I'd be tempted to play hardball and make him choose between the extra money and leaving).

But of the 3 options (sign Love, lose Love for nothing, trade Love this summer or at the deadline for a mediocre package), I think trading Love is easily the worst.
   5. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 03, 2014 at 05:55 PM (#4678803)
That's fine. Just remember, there was one person in this conversation who was confident Joakim would be successful on the night he was drafted.

Joakim?
   6. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: April 03, 2014 at 05:58 PM (#4678806)
*I wonder what the market for someone like him is going to be this offseason now. I sure hope he hasn't priced himself out of the Bulls range.
if he expects to make more than the league minimum, i think he's priced himself out of the bulls range. at least if cj watson and nate robinson are used as precedent.
   7. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 03, 2014 at 06:02 PM (#4678807)
I feel like I'd take the field in any bet. This time is far enough away that it's easy to see a young player taking a big step forward -- there are just plenty of guys who are already good and who might get much better even if no one of them is necessarily a great bet to do so. Irving, Wall, George, Harden, Curry, Cousins, Leonard, Hayward, Favors, Valanciunas are some other guys who might be in the mix in 5-10 years at varying levels of current age and ability (not to mention the incoming draft). I'd certainly take 1. Durant 2. Davis at equal odds but I think it's probably Durant 25%, Davis 10%, field 65% for best player in the league 7 years from now.

I agree with the overall point of this post, but disagree with a number of those specific examples. Most of the "best players" are usually really, really good right off the bat and/or are also super highly rated off the bat - which is why it can be easy to get excited about AD. That would eliminate guys like Leonard, Hayward, Favors, Valanciunas, and I personally think there's no chance any of them ever being considered the best player. Personally, I'd also rule out Irving, Wall and Cousins, too, but actually could see a scenario - though unlikely - that that keep getting better.

(I keep waiting for someone to name Rose so I don't have to, even if I know deep down he'll probably never be the same player, much less improve enough from what he was before to be that great.)
   8. robinred Posted: April 03, 2014 at 06:05 PM (#4678809)
The Wolves are doing the right thing here, aren't they?

---

Yeah, based on what we know now. If they can get into postseason next year, maybe he stays.

   9. kpelton Posted: April 03, 2014 at 06:32 PM (#4678827)
I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about, which I forgot.

Complaining about hosting providers?
   10. smileyy Posted: April 03, 2014 at 06:37 PM (#4678829)

Complaining about hosting providers?


Complaining about this site still using that hosting provider?
   11. smileyy Posted: April 03, 2014 at 06:38 PM (#4678830)
[7] I'd take a player not currently in the NBA over the not-KD/not-AD field.
   12. kpelton Posted: April 03, 2014 at 06:59 PM (#4678847)
There was a lot of wishcasting after the over-the-op intro to how AD is a unique shining star.

When I wrote about Davis last month, I had to leave out some of what SCHOENE projected about his future because it was so over the top it would have detracted from the larger point.
   13. andrewberg Posted: April 03, 2014 at 07:29 PM (#4678863)
There was an article on ESPN today by the front office guru guy (Amir something) that explained how each lottery team should approach the offseason to get better. The three suggestions for the Wolves were literally 1) get rid of bad players, 2) find a good coach, 3) draft a good player.

Thanks for that!
   14. robinred Posted: April 03, 2014 at 08:34 PM (#4678898)
(Amir something)


Amin Elhassan. He used to work in the Phoenix FO. The article actually focused on Sacto, DET, and MIN, who were three of lowest-ranking FOs in a recent survey ESPN did.

But...the piece was pretty weak.
   15. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 03, 2014 at 09:24 PM (#4678918)
The three suggestions for the Wolves were literally 1) get rid of bad players, 2) find a good coach, 3) draft a good player.

Thanks for that!
Wow, those are great suggestions. They should totally do all of that!
   16. King Mekong Posted: April 03, 2014 at 10:42 PM (#4678950)
Seems like Minny should trade Pek for other assets of need (more shooting) and insert Dieng permanently into the starting lineup.
   17. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 04, 2014 at 05:59 AM (#4679025)
It really looks like the Spurs can beat everyone but the Thunder right now. OKC has beaten them 4 times this year and the rest of the league has only beaten them 13 times.

Also, I was the guy who said that I might pick Drummond over Anthony Davis if the former could ever learn to shot free throws. That's looking unlikely and even if it did happen, Davis really has been excellent already. I am probably really wrong about that.
   18. jmurph Posted: April 04, 2014 at 03:38 PM (#4679488)
So do people think OKC's dominance of the Spurs will carry over into the playoffs?
   19. Manny Coon Posted: April 04, 2014 at 03:51 PM (#4679500)
So do people think OKC's dominance of the Spurs will carry over into the playoffs?


Will probably need to get by Clippers first, who are 2-1 against OKC and will be favored to win the last game between the two teams (road back to back for OKC). The Spurs on the other hand are 0-3 against the Rockets, with the last game in Houston. The Rockets 0-4 vs. the Clippers and 0-3 against the Thunder. The Clippers are 1-2 against the Spurs.
   20. Spivey Posted: April 04, 2014 at 04:41 PM (#4679531)
I think Spurs vs. OKC would be a very evenly matched series. And I agree with Manny's point they've got plenty in their way before they even meet. At the very least LAC, Houston, and Golden State are all very good teams. And everyone in the West is going to be at least good.
   21. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 04, 2014 at 05:37 PM (#4679567)
Milwaukee Bucks center Larry Sanders will be suspended without pay for five games when he returns from injury for violating the NBA's drug policy.

Sanders said in a statement released by the team Friday that he was penalized for using marijuana, his latest setback since signing a four-year extension worth about $44 million in the offseason.


Outside of that new contract, what an awful year for larry sanders.
   22. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 04, 2014 at 09:30 PM (#4679695)
9 minutes left and the Sixers lead the Celtics by 9 points. Henry Sims has made 10 free throws.

Jerryd Bayliss has 23 for the Celtics. 23 points, not free throws.
   23. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 04, 2014 at 09:53 PM (#4679706)
10-point lead! 12 assists for Elliot Williams! The Boston Garden PA is playing "Dancing With Myself"!

Tune in now and witness history.
   24. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: April 04, 2014 at 11:14 PM (#4679745)
10-point lead! 12 assists for Elliot Williams! The Boston Garden PA is playing "Dancing With Myself"!
better that than blondie's 'i touch myself'
   25. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 04, 2014 at 11:44 PM (#4679755)
Blondie?
   26. theboyqueen Posted: April 04, 2014 at 11:45 PM (#4679757)
That's Divinyls not Blondie. Warriors up 59-27 over Kings at halftime. Kings playing one of the worst games I've ever seen.
   27. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: April 05, 2014 at 01:45 AM (#4679786)
That's Divinyls not Blondie. Warriors up 59-27 over Kings at halftime. Kings playing one of the worst games I've ever seen.
i'm gonna blame that on napster and move on without elaborating on the matter in any way at all.
   28. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: April 05, 2014 at 02:27 AM (#4679793)
i just assumed there was a player named Divinyls when i read that post
   29. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: April 05, 2014 at 01:11 PM (#4679912)
I was paying. More attention to the Yankees game but Jazz beat the Pelicans last night due mostly to Favors going off in the 3rd when Davis didn't play.

Unfortunately Favors and Kanter still don't do well playing together, and I would not be surprised to see him moved in the offseason especially if Jazz draft a big.
   30. thok Posted: April 06, 2014 at 11:07 AM (#4680249)
Charlotte, at 39-38, has clinched a playoff berth. Portland, at 49-28, has not.
   31. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 06, 2014 at 06:53 PM (#4680547)
Atlanta is up 49-19 on the Pacers in Indiana.
   32. The District Attorney Posted: April 06, 2014 at 07:00 PM (#4680550)
Atlanta is up 49-19 on the Pacers in Indiana.
Zach Lowe probably hit a low (no pun intended, seriously) point in his career when Marc Stein suggested that the Pacers' struggles are due to the players losing confidence because the team made trade deadline moves, and Lowe amiably went along with it.

Something is seriously wrong with this team, though.
   33. robinred Posted: April 06, 2014 at 07:15 PM (#4680567)
55-23 at the half.
   34. JJ1986 Posted: April 06, 2014 at 07:26 PM (#4680575)
No Pacer has more than one FG at the half.
   35. Kurt Posted: April 06, 2014 at 07:31 PM (#4680578)
Charlotte, at 39-38, has clinched a playoff berth. Portland, at 49-28, has not.


On the other hand, 7 eastern teams at .500 or above is about 4 more than I expected a few months ago.
   36. Booey Posted: April 06, 2014 at 07:37 PM (#4680579)
Something is seriously wrong with this team, though.


Luckily for them, they play in a conference with only one other contender, so struggling or not, they could still reach the ECF pretty much by default. A similar untimely bad stretch for a Western team would likely mean a first round exit.
   37. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 06, 2014 at 08:08 PM (#4680591)
Well, they're losing by 25 at home to one of their likely first round opponents, so I'm not sure making the ECF is such a given.
   38. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 06, 2014 at 08:23 PM (#4680603)
The Nets and bulls have played a lot better recently. Indiana would be the favourite against either but I'm not sure that's going To be an easy series.

Drummond isn't as good as AD but I think in a few years he's going to put up 20/20 fairly regularly. I have been a bit disappointed in the lack of blocks this year.
   39. Spivey Posted: April 06, 2014 at 08:53 PM (#4680624)
I think Indiana was more overperforming early in the year than they are underperforming now.
   40. Spivey Posted: April 06, 2014 at 09:29 PM (#4680639)
Also, Greg Popovich. He's an absolute wizard.

Of the 12 guys who have played the most minutes for the Spurs only one has a TS% under .550. That's Tim Duncan, at .535. I really think Popovich is the best NBA coach of all time. I know I'm a homer, but this is incredible. Seriously, check out the SRS numbers of the Spurs every year that Popovich has been head coach. That run in modern NBA with the range of ways in which they've won is something that will be hard to repeat.
   41. King Mekong Posted: April 06, 2014 at 10:04 PM (#4680652)
Pop is the Buffett of the NBA.
   42. King Mekong Posted: April 06, 2014 at 10:15 PM (#4680655)
Also, I'm still monitoring this, but it's looking like a pretty favorable comparison for Leonard. http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=georgpa01&y1=2013&p2=leonaka01&y2=2014
   43. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 06, 2014 at 11:31 PM (#4680684)
In 47 years of existence, the Spurs/Chapparals have been under .500 eight times. Seven of those were in the 70s or 80s.
   44. theboyqueen Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:32 AM (#4680711)
The Spurs are incredible, easily the best team in the league, but they don't match up that well with OKC, LAC, or Houston. The west is freaking crazy.
   45. robinred Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:35 AM (#4680713)
Jason (Toronto)

Am I crazy to think the Raptors, assuming they get past the Wizards in round 1, can give the Pacers a tough road to the Eastern Conference Finals in round 2?
Kevin Pelton (1:48 PM)

No, you're not crazy. Toronto's a quality team. I think they could give either top East contender a good series.

---
   46. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:44 AM (#4680715)
---
what you did there. i see it.
   47. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: April 07, 2014 at 12:53 AM (#4680717)
Is shabazz mouhommad out of the league already?
   48. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:28 AM (#4680727)
The Spurs are incredible, easily the best team in the league, but they don't match up that well with OKC, LAC, or Houston. The west is freaking crazy.
As a Warriors fan it's possible I overrate the Spurs, but as far as I'm concerned they're the best professional sports organization of the past 15 years. I'm not even sure what the competition is. Maybe the Patriots? Man U? The Cardinals?

But yeah, the playoffs are going to be a bloodbath.
   49. Quaker Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:39 AM (#4680730)
Everyone on the Spurs site I visit is 100% confident they will beat the Clippers but terrified of OKC and, to a lesser extent, Houston.

I'm most afraid of OKC, then LAC then Houston. OKC is the only team in the league I wouldn't give the Spurs a better than 50-50 chance of beating.
   50. robinred Posted: April 07, 2014 at 03:22 AM (#4680732)
Lowe on the Pacers

This really just boils down to being better at basketball. The Pacers don’t have outstanding offensive players, but when they’ve been fully engaged, they’ve been able to squeeze out enough points. Vogel is an ace at drawing up plays out of timeouts, and the Pacers are good at using back screens to create 3-point shots out of the post. If they rediscover their good habits, they should get back on track for their date with Miami. But if they don’t, we shouldn’t be surprised if they are out much earlier.
   51. Booey Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:25 AM (#4680888)
Yeah, not sure what to make of the Spurs. They've been amazing this season (as always), but their record against the other top teams in the West is surprisingly bad. I certainly wouldn't bet on them against the Thunder, and I think a SA playoff series against the Rockets or Clips would be a toss up.

The West has been so much better for at least 15 years now; isn't it time the NBA at least considers switching up their playoff format?
   52. GregD Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:31 AM (#4680895)
Is shabazz mouhommad out of the league already?
Muhammad scored a point on April 4 so I assume he's still hanging on. I wouldn't invest in his future career at this point, though.
   53. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:38 AM (#4680905)
Is shabazz mouhommad out of the league already


The World's Worst Scout (me) was way wrong on him. I thought he had a chance to be a poor man's Cedric Ceballos.
   54. tshipman Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:45 AM (#4680912)
The World's Worst Scout (me) was way wrong on him. I thought he had a chance to be a poor man's Cedric Ceballos.


I think that means you got him right, doesn't it? A poor man's Cedric Ceballos is not an NBA Player
   55. GregD Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:51 AM (#4680918)
He does have another $5 million guaranteed after this year. I hope he's saving up!
   56. The District Attorney Posted: April 07, 2014 at 01:46 PM (#4681097)
ESPN: Introducing "Real Plus-Minus"

And here's the leaderboard.

My friend was despondent at Beverley 14th, Lin 139th and Felton 141st...
   57. jmurph Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:03 PM (#4681126)
My friend was despondent at Beverley 14th, Lin 139th and Felton 141st...


Is your friend NJ?
   58. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:17 PM (#4681146)
I dont think I can buy Lebron being a minus on defense
   59. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:24 PM (#4681152)
RK NAME TEAM GP MPG ORPM DRPM RPM WAR
1 LeBron James, SF MIA 73 37.7 8.32 -0.21 8.11 17.07
2 Kevin Durant, SF OKC 75 38.5 6.10 0.67 6.77 16.73


Apparently the RPM to WAR calculation will be reviewed later this week. Be interesting to see how they weight RPM per minutes played.
   60. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:27 PM (#4681156)
I dont think I can buy Lebron being a minus on defense


You mean you don't think Carlos Boozer (at -.05) is a better defender? Come on...
   61. Jimmy P Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:30 PM (#4681160)
Simmons was tweeting this weekend about the Bucks being sold. And not to the group from Seattle.
   62. theboyqueen Posted: April 07, 2014 at 02:54 PM (#4681181)
Mitch Richmond, hall of famer? Does that put Rudy Gay on the HOF path?

Admittedly I don't pay tons of attention to the basketball HOF but that seems odd. Kevin Johnson, Chris Webber, Sidney Moncrief, Tim Hardaway, Mark Aguirre just to name a few seem a lot more deserving.
   63. Booey Posted: April 07, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4681202)
Admittedly I don't pay tons of attention to the basketball HOF but that seems odd. Kevin Johnson, Chris Webber, Sidney Moncrief, Tim Hardaway, Mark Aguirre just to name a few seem a lot more deserving.


I'd guess most those guys make it eventually too. It's always been hard to figure out what exactly the standards are for the basketball HOF. With the baseball HOF, it's only become that way recently.
   64. Jimmy P Posted: April 07, 2014 at 03:49 PM (#4681242)
I'd guess most those guys make it eventually too. It's always been hard to figure out what exactly the standards are for the basketball HOF. With the baseball HOF, it's only become that way recently.


Compile. The basketball HOF is just about compiling. It's the worst for college coaches.
   65. AROM Posted: April 07, 2014 at 04:50 PM (#4681332)
I dont think I can buy Lebron being a minus on defense


For this year, I can see it.

With Lebron on the floor, Heat allow .509 EFG% and 106.3 offensive rating. With him on the bench, it's .494 and 103.5. It also shows up in his traditional stats, he's only blocked 24 shots this year. Last year he blocked 67, and his previous career low was 50.

I don't think any of it means that Lebron can't play defense, only that for this season, he really hasn't. And it might very well be a case of coasting. It's not like the Heat are struggling for anything this season. The struggle will be in the playoffs, and I think we'll see Lebron back to being a defensive monster when that time comes.
   66. AROM Posted: April 07, 2014 at 04:52 PM (#4681338)
From skimming the ESPN ratings, they look really good to me. I love that they break it down into offense vs. defense.
   67. andrewberg Posted: April 07, 2014 at 05:41 PM (#4681409)
Rubio is 3rd in PG WAR and 6th in PG RPM.

Pekovic is only 11th in RPM for Centers. Reaffirms the idea that it might be wise to flip him and run with Love/Dieng up front next year.
   68. andrewberg Posted: April 07, 2014 at 05:43 PM (#4681412)
Oh, and Garnett and Duncan are still the 2nd and 3rd best defenders in the NBA on a per-minute basis, according to this metric. That sounds plausible. They're all-timers.
   69. nick swisher hygiene Posted: April 07, 2014 at 06:43 PM (#4681466)
66--agreed! oh, and if I'm Nick Collison's agent I am all OVER social media right now...
   70. greenback calls it soccer Posted: April 07, 2014 at 08:05 PM (#4681518)
Rex Chapman just tweeted Calipari is headed to the Lakers.
   71. theboyqueen Posted: April 07, 2014 at 09:10 PM (#4681544)
Rex Chapman just tweeted Calipari is headed to the Lakers.


Is this serious? How would something like this get decided hours before a national championship game?
   72. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: April 07, 2014 at 09:18 PM (#4681548)
Ncaa must be on his heels
   73. theboyqueen Posted: April 07, 2014 at 09:19 PM (#4681549)
Does plus/minus overrate players on teams with a weak bench and underrate players on deep teams? Comparing Iguodala (or any of the Warriors starters all of whom seem very highly rated by this system) to Kawhi Leonard makes me ask this question.
   74. theboyqueen Posted: April 07, 2014 at 09:22 PM (#4681550)
Also substitution patterns may play a role, given Mark Jackson's penchant for wholesale line changes which make the overall team very weak when the starters sit, as compared to Popovich's more random substitution patterns.
   75. Paul D(uda) Posted: April 07, 2014 at 09:43 PM (#4681556)
Jonas Valanciunas busted for drinking and driving.
   76. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: April 07, 2014 at 10:15 PM (#4681572)
ESPN: Introducing "Real Plus-Minus"

And here's the leaderboard.
but what do you do with it?

anthony davis is having a huge breakout year, but RPM has him ranked as the 20th best power forward. if this is going to be an important statistic, then how does it explain the difference between its ranking of davis and something like PER's ranking of davis.

moreover, can it justify the difference? and if so, how would a team be able to capitalize on it?
   77. King Mekong Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:17 PM (#4681597)
76 - agreed, since they don't publish their model and there are no previous years listed it is hard to draw any conclusions. The Kawhi thing bothered me as well.
   78. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:25 PM (#4681599)
Mazel to the Huskies and Kevin Ollie.
   79. kpelton Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:31 PM (#4681605)
RE 73/74: Using regularization helps deal with the collinearity problems created by teams that tend to play the same rotation all the time, or a pair of players opposite teach other. Beyond that, you've got multiple seasons considered and the Warriors' results when just one of their starters are missing (7-9 without Iguodala, notably). So I think those ratings are legit.

anthony davis is having a huge breakout year, but RPM has him ranked as the 20th best power forward. if this is going to be an important statistic, then how does it explain the difference between its ranking of davis and something like PER's ranking of davis.

On some level, RPM is a statement of fact. The Pelicans haven't been much better with Davis on the court. That's a thing that has happened. Now, tracing that to his influence is somewhat trickier, and that's where the noise in the ratings and the fact that they measure performance and not ability come into play.

I wrote a lot about this a few years ago, or you could go with this simpler point on Twitter today: When you see a large difference between RPM and box score, think of it as a great opportunity to investigate more carefully with your eyes.
   80. theboyqueen Posted: April 07, 2014 at 11:43 PM (#4681608)
RE 73/74: Using regularization helps deal with the collinearity problems created by teams that tend to play the same rotation all the time, or a pair of players opposite teach other. Beyond that, you've got multiple seasons considered and the Warriors' results when just one of their starters are missing (7-9 without Iguodala, notably). So I think those ratings are legit.


If Iguodala's backup was Lebron James instead of Harrison Barnes, how different would Iguodala's numbers look?
   81. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 08, 2014 at 10:23 AM (#4681754)
If Iguodala's backup was Lebron James instead of Harrison Barnes, how different would Iguodala's numbers look?

Incredibly better. Mostly because that would mean Iggy is about 1000x better than he is right now.
   82. nick swisher hygiene Posted: April 08, 2014 at 10:37 AM (#4681775)
79--looking at how other young stars rate (as well as, eg, #6 Collison!) it seems coherent enough if you assume that mastering NBA team defense concepts takes time...
   83. Jimmy P Posted: April 08, 2014 at 12:04 PM (#4681917)
So, in the national title game for the NCAA, one team failed to score 60, the winning team shot 41.5%, and neither team scored 30 points in the 2nd half. Yuck. What a crappy product.
   84. GregD Posted: April 08, 2014 at 12:10 PM (#4681923)
Final games often aren't very well played. The Final Four round is usually much crisper; those games were much better this year as they are in many years. Injuries, mental and physical fatigue, lack of time to prepare. They are young and get overwhelmed. They also can't respond as quickly as mature NBA players do to new schemes. I also think teams don't play well in football stadiums, but that could be just anecdotal.
   85. King Mekong Posted: April 08, 2014 at 12:54 PM (#4681955)
79 - hadn't seen that bask prospectus article before, that is very instructive. Thanks for sharing. Any idea if the "real" plus minus stat is going to be run for previous seasons? Is more information about the model going to be released?
   86. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: April 08, 2014 at 01:38 PM (#4682006)
The Detroit News reports: Detroit Pistons president Joe Dumars has told multiple sources within the NBA that he plans to resign, possibly as early as this week.


He was likely to get fired regardless. It was overdue.
   87. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: April 08, 2014 at 01:45 PM (#4682014)
Am I wrong for remembering that Dumars was regarded as a brilliant executive way, way back when? (And checking the Wikipedia page, I see he did win Executive of the Year in 2003)
   88. kpelton Posted: April 08, 2014 at 02:07 PM (#4682022)
If Iguodala's backup was Lebron James instead of Harrison Barnes, how different would Iguodala's numbers look?

At that extreme, they would probably go down, since there's only so good a team can be. But Iguodala rated nearly as well in Philadelphia and Denver, so this is not something that just started when he got to Golden State.

Any idea if the "real" plus minus stat is going to be run for previous seasons? Is more information about the model going to be released?

More information coming throughout the week, so far as I know. Not sure if/when earlier seasons will make it to ESPN, but you can get a sense of them from Jeremias Engelmann's xRAPM predecessor: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/

   89. AROM Posted: April 08, 2014 at 02:11 PM (#4682025)
He did a very good job putting together the 2004 championship team.

1. Drafted Tayshaun Prince
2. Acquired Ben Wallace in sign and trade that was forced on him when Grant Hill choose to go to Orlando
3. Signed Chauncey Billups on the cheap. Talented (#3 overall pick) given up on by 4 teams in his first 4 years. Became one of the best PG in basketball in Detroit. Pretty much the basketball equivalent of Red Sox signing David Ortiz in 2003.
4. Traded Jerry Stackhouse for Richard Hamilton
5. Picked up Rasheed Wallace in a 3 team deal that involved 2 first round picks. These picks turned out well (Josh Smith and Tony Allen) but Sheed was the final piece to the puzzle, and pennants hang forever. Dumars picked up the eventual Smith pick (#17 overall) in a previous deal for Rodney White.

But before that championship season, he also drafted Darko ahead of Wade, Carmelo, and Bosh. Sadly, the rest of his GM career looks more like that move. But up to that point, Dumars did very well.
   90. Spivey Posted: April 08, 2014 at 02:15 PM (#4682030)
Dumars was very well thought of. Then Darko happened, they gave away Billups to build around Stuckey, and many other decisions that didn't work out. I have to assume there was a lot of good luck with their earlier good moves, because the period of time he's sucked has been too long to be bad luck.
   91. AROM Posted: April 08, 2014 at 02:42 PM (#4682059)
To get the Darko pick, Detroit traded 34 year old Otis Thorpe to Vancouver (a 14-68 team). Nothing else involved, one player for one pick. That is a horrible level of incompetence on the Grizzlies part. This was pre-Dumars.

Sounds similar to the trades that let an already good Laker team get Magic #1, and then a few years later let a great team draft Big Game James #1 overall.
   92. Jimmy P Posted: April 08, 2014 at 02:47 PM (#4682066)
Dumars was very well thought of. Then Darko happened, they gave away Billups to build around Stuckey, and many other decisions that didn't work out. I have to assume there was a lot of good luck with their earlier good moves, because the period of time he's sucked has been too long to be bad luck.

And he also blew his cap space on Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. He's had his revolving door of coaches after he fired Rick Carlisle. And then blew more cap space on Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith.

With the exception of the Darko pick, he appears to be a decent drafter.
   93. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 08, 2014 at 02:53 PM (#4682074)
I didn't read the article but I think ESPN insider had an article that stated that Isiah Thomas has done an excellent job with the draft. I actually think that's true and that Isiah's best role is as a scout rather than a GM/coach.

I don't know whether this is true or not but I really do think that Dumars was forced to fire Carlisle by the owner at the time and that has hurt the franchise in the long run even though they won a championship with Larry Brown. Brown did win in 2004 but that also had Rasheed Wallace something the 2003 team didn't have. Furthermore, Carlisle continues to be an excellent coach.

   94. theboyqueen Posted: April 08, 2014 at 05:31 PM (#4682260)
The teams I know best are the Kings and the Warriors. RPM seems to love the Warriors top 6 players (Bogut, Lee, Iguodala, Thompson, Curry with Green off the bench?), which would bode well for their playoff hopes assuming Jackson doesn't do as much substituting in playoff games.

The more I look at those rankings the better it seems than anything else to capture the players I think are really good at winning games in ways that don't light up stat sheets -- Iguodala obviously being a prime example. Also looking at the bottom of the list, players I have watched quite a bit of who I think are absolutely terrible are well represented (Ben McLemore, Speights, Jimmer).

I think Demarcus Cousins being rated as an average center despite his gaudy numbers is realistic given what a tremendously poor team player on both ends he is. He is actually rated as a negative on offense, which to me makes sense as he is about as close to a ball stopper as a center can be and unfortunately he is not terribly efficient. I bet he has a ton of trade value right now which is something I would definitely explore if I were the Kings.

What do we think of DeAndre Jordan being rated by far the best center in the league? I am kind of willing to believe it.
   95. andrewberg Posted: April 08, 2014 at 09:30 PM (#4682465)
Ok, so now that the Wolves are eliminated from anything that matters, they are beating the best team in the NBA 64-37. They are down to 9 players and one of those 9 is a terrorist. Love has 7 points on 10 shots. What a weird team and a weird season. Odds still look ok for them to finish above .500.
   96. The District Attorney Posted: April 08, 2014 at 10:02 PM (#4682484)
one of those 9 is a terrorist.
Yes, I saw this tidbit and thought, "I don't even want to know."

The Starters' "awards show" was a good time. (They had Durant MVP, Pop coach, Carter-Williams ROY, Taj Gibson 6th Man, and Gerald Green Most Improved, as well as some "fun" awards such as "Best Wedgie.")
   97. Manny Coon Posted: April 08, 2014 at 10:48 PM (#4682531)
What do you guys think of Mason Plumlee's Rookie of the Year case compared to guys like Carter-Williams, Burke and Olapido? Those guys have been putting up inefficient counting stats on terrible teams, but Plumleee is a very effective contributor on a playoff team, who is drastically more efficient but with less minutes/touches. Steven Adams and Cody Zeller are similar to Plumlee in that way but not quite as good, but my guess is the chuckers will get most the votes.

Lot of pretty useful rookie bigs this year (Plumlee, Zeller, Adams, Dieng, Withey, Olynyk, Kelly, maybe even Gobert).
   98. greenback calls it soccer Posted: April 08, 2014 at 11:22 PM (#4682555)
Did Larry Brown just randomly decide to go to SMU?
   99. GregD Posted: April 08, 2014 at 11:29 PM (#4682564)
and then signed one of the very best h.s. players in the country, Mudiay coming in as a point. Superstar.
   100. theboyqueen Posted: April 09, 2014 at 12:00 AM (#4682580)
Plumlee certainly looks like the best rookie to me, which admittedly is hardly saying anything. He seems to have a very good defensive game at least. Oh wait, you're talking about Mason not Miles. In that case I have no idea; I haven't seen him and his numbers don't look like much.

I also don't know if Miles qualifies as a rookie, I don't think he played hardly at all his first year and I don't know what the NBA counts as a rookie.

This has to be the least impactful first year class in quite some time. Is Otto Porter still alive? Do they have to name a ROY?
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