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Thursday, April 03, 2014

OT: NBA Monthly Thread - April 2014

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about, which I forgot.

Have posts been building up inside you?

The District Attorney Posted: April 03, 2014 at 05:26 PM | 2387 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   101. Manny Coon Posted: April 09, 2014 at 12:09 AM (#4682583)
Miles isn't a rookie. Mason leads rookies in win shares and has a PER around 18, TS% around 66%, Nets are 16-6 when he starts.
   102. theboyqueen Posted: April 09, 2014 at 12:17 AM (#4682585)
Him then. Maybe the Greek dude will develop into something, and Trey Burke will probably be a nice player some day. Nerlens may be good, who knows? That's about it, far as I can tell.
   103. Manny Coon Posted: April 09, 2014 at 12:29 AM (#4682589)
Yeah Mason is 24, which is really old for a rookie, so his upside is probably limited. Giannis and Noel probably have the most upside. Zeller has had a strong second half of season among the guys that were drafted high.
   104. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 09, 2014 at 12:56 AM (#4682596)
That was definitely a foul last night on Lebron though.

Miami went 0-4 against Brooklyn this season. Wade didn't play in two of those games. The Nets won three of those games by a single point and the other in OT.

   105. rr Posted: April 09, 2014 at 12:58 AM (#4682598)
I don't know about his case on the merits (have not followed closely enough) but "Blocking LeBron's attempt at a game-winning dunk" is certainly a nice optic for Mason Plumlee.
   106. theboyqueen Posted: April 09, 2014 at 01:04 AM (#4682601)
Are the Plumlees Mormon? How is Mason 24?
   107. steagles Posted: April 09, 2014 at 01:07 AM (#4682603)
i want to say that MCW should win rookie of the year, though i'm also obviously biased in favor of it. he does lead all rookies in points (and PPG), rebounds (and RPG), assists (and APG) and steals (and SPG), so i don't quite think it's accurate to tarnish him with the 'inefficient chucker' label. his teammates are historically awful, but that's not his fault.

on a related note (via sporkle):
Can you name players who have been part of the 15-man roster for the 2013-2014 Philadelphia 76ers?
   108. theboyqueen Posted: April 09, 2014 at 01:13 AM (#4682607)
Assists should count double on the sixers. Who the hell is he passing the ball to?
   109. steagles Posted: April 09, 2014 at 01:17 AM (#4682609)
Assists should count double on the sixers. Who the hell is he passing the ball to?
#1 thaddeus young #2 spencer hawes #3 james anderson #4 evan turner
   110. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 09, 2014 at 08:52 AM (#4682673)
I can't find any reference to the Plumlees being Mormon. They were both 23 when they graduated from Duke, a year older than a normal senior. I think a Mormon mission would make them two years older.

Maybe their parents were among the rapidly growing sector of society that holds their children back for no reason other than to give them advantages over normal-aged children. In which case, mission accomplished.
   111. King Mekong Posted: April 09, 2014 at 09:52 AM (#4682721)
I got 8 of 28, and the only one I should have gotten and didn't was bj mullens.
   112. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 09, 2014 at 10:07 AM (#4682745)
I only got 15.

Also forgot about BJ Mullens, after he arrived with such hoopla. "A player I've heard of!", all the fans exclaimed. But instead, Henry Sims has turned out to be such a megastar.
   113. AROM Posted: April 09, 2014 at 10:46 AM (#4682804)
Marshall Plumlee was a backup sophomore at Duke this year. Is it just 3 of them, or are there more Plumlees on the way?
   114. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:02 AM (#4682824)
Have there ever been as many Duke players in the NBA as there are now? Plumlee, Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, Kyle Singler… Josh McRoberts and Gerald Henderson Jr. took a while to get established, but now they are. Dunleavy Jr., Boozer and Battier are into decade-plus careers now. Kyrie Irving, Luol Deng as well. Austin Rivers still sucks, but he's better than he was last year. Elton Brand is still around somehow.

Back when Shavlik Randolph/Shelden Williams/Daniel Ewing/JJ Redick all appeared and all seemed to be busts, I never thought Duke's style of play would produce so many pros again.
   115. Manny Coon Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:09 AM (#4682831)
Marshall Plumlee was a backup sophomore at Duke this year. Is it just 3 of them, or are there more Plumlees on the way?


Their sister plays volleyball at Notre Dame, but doesn't sounds like there any more kids after her. Three seems to be total number of Zellers as well. Rick Barry has another kid playing college basketball though, although he doesn't seem like much of prospect.
   116. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:19 AM (#4682839)
UMass G Derrick Gordon comes out; first D1 men's hoopster to do so.

I forgot a bunch of the Sixers. Like, when I saw the name I was like 'yeah, they had Darius Morris for awhile!' but ... phew. Somewhere in the high teens.
   117. Manny Coon Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:22 AM (#4682843)
Have there ever been as many Duke players in the NBA as there are now? Plumlee, Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, Kyle Singler… Josh McRoberts and Gerald Henderson Jr. took a while to get established, but now they are. Dunleavy Jr., Boozer and Battier are into decade-plus careers now. Kyrie Irving, Luol Deng as well. Austin Rivers still sucks, but he's better than he was last year. Elton Brand is still around somehow.

Back when Shavlik Randolph/Shelden Williams/Daniel Ewing/JJ Redick all appeared and all seemed to be busts, I never thought Duke's style of play would produce so many pros again.


JJ Redick starts for one of the best teams in the league, it's weird seeing him with Ewing rather than guys above that are doing well.

Shavlik and Shelden were both killing it in China this year, got Shavlik a job with the Suns. Shelden was somewhat useful in the NBA, I wonder if he would have been seen differently if he was drafted 25th instead of 5th.
   118. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:30 AM (#4682855)
JJ Redick starts for one of the best teams in the league, it's weird seeing him with Ewing rather than guys above that are doing well.

Sorry, I was trying to evoke the time when he was lumped in with Adam Morrison and also with the large number of recent Duke flops.

He didn't start more than 9 games until his sixth season!
   119. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:31 AM (#4682856)
Didn't Shelden marry Candace Parker? I'd imagine any kids would probably hit the genetic lottery (at least when it comes to playing basketball).
   120. andrewberg Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:43 AM (#4682872)

Didn't Shelden marry Candace Parker? I'd imagine any kids would probably hit the genetic lottery (at least when it comes to playing basketball).


No, their dad is Shelden Williams.
   121. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:43 AM (#4682873)
Didn't Shelden marry Candace Parker? I'd imagine any kids would probably hit the genetic lottery (at least when it comes to playing basketball).


I will never understand why Parker married him. He is definitely on the 15-man all-ugly roster. Plus, she is probably a better basketball player than Williams.
   122. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:44 AM (#4682877)
Maybe she loved/s him? Or is really into foreheads?
   123. GregD Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:47 AM (#4682883)
UMass G Derrick Gordon comes out; first D1 men's hoopster to do so.
It took me a minute to realize you didn't mean the draft
   124. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: April 09, 2014 at 01:24 PM (#4682971)
Or is really into foreheads?


And tiny hand apparently. Make the tits feel bigger.
   125. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 09, 2014 at 02:42 PM (#4683069)
123 - Sorry GregD, dumb wording on my part.
   126. just plain joe Posted: April 09, 2014 at 03:40 PM (#4683150)
And tiny hand apparently. Make the tits feel bigger.


Does laughing at this make me a bad person?
   127. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: April 09, 2014 at 03:57 PM (#4683184)
Embiid finally comes out.

For the NBA draft. Just waiting on Parker, and I still have to think he'll come out. Even if Coach K et al are pressuring him to stay.
   128. The District Attorney Posted: April 09, 2014 at 04:23 PM (#4683241)
   129. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: April 09, 2014 at 04:33 PM (#4683258)
[128] This announcement moved the line from IND -5.5 to IND -2.5. It's a hilarious statement about the Bucks that a slumping team can come to Milwaukee, rest all of its starters, and still be favored by 2 (now) points.
   130. Jimmy P Posted: April 09, 2014 at 06:02 PM (#4683357)
Just listened to Adam Silver on Dan Patrick. Two things I took away:

1. The NBA really wants 20 year minimum. But, realizes the NCAA sucks for the kids and is not happy about the stupid declare by date the NCAA enforces.
2. Advertising on the jerseys is coming. His reasoning basically boils down to, "America is the only place it doesn't happen and we think our sponsors deserve it." Which sucks.
   131. thok Posted: April 09, 2014 at 06:19 PM (#4683363)
Take all of the nonplayoff teams in the East (pick whichever one of Atlanta and the Knicks you'd like), and make the best 12 player team you can from them. Would Milwaukee get any players on that team? Also, would that team have any chance at making the playoffs in the Western conference?
   132. Manny Coon Posted: April 09, 2014 at 06:41 PM (#4683381)
Take all of the nonplayoff teams in the East (pick whichever one of Atlanta and the Knicks you'd like), and make the best 12 player team you can from them. Would Milwaukee get any players on that team? Also, would that team have any chance at making the playoffs in the Western conference?


Drummond-Monroe-Melo-Afflalo-Irving
Chandler-Young-Deng-Singler-Jennings
Vucevic-Knight

So one Buck and yes I think they are an easy playoff team.

There a lot of decent big men in the East, but the guards are mostly a bunch of crappy chuckers.
   133. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 09, 2014 at 08:39 PM (#4683468)
kpelton is on today's zach lowe podcast discussing the rollout of real plus-minus. Definitely worth a listen.

Kevin mentioned the predominance of big men on the DRPM leaderboard (and their absence on the ORPM leaderboard) and when I went to look at it, it seemed a bit odd. As he says, of the 40 top players by DRPM, only six are guards or small forwards (Iguadala, Green, Bledsoe, Pierce, Rubio, Allen). That doesn't seem intuitively crazy, but it does seem to imply that big men have a disproportionate impact on the defensive success or failure of their teams. If that's the case, wouldn't you expect the bottom of the DRPM rankings to also be full of PFs and Cs? Instead, it's the reverse: only 5 PF/Cs in the bottom 40 (Mullens, Middleton, Scott, Booker, Teletovic). Obviously that's a pretty quick and crude type of comparison, but it seems a bit weird.

Is the confounding factor small lineups where SFs are playing as PFs and PFs as Cs? Am I missing something more basic?

I do wish ESPN would put more of the articles discussing RPM outside of the paywall, at least at first.
   134. bibigon Posted: April 09, 2014 at 10:57 PM (#4683546)
I wish ESPN would put more articles discussing inside RPM anywhere, regardless of paywall. Right now, it's people I by and large trust saying "trust us". That's fine, up to a point, but makes it hard to engage with RPM too much yet.

On your substantive point, I'm not sure if you would necessarily see a symmetric distribution of DRPM at PF/C. If defense at the position is actually extremely important, but teams strongly select for strong defenders, especially at the low end, what would you expect yo see? Essentially I'm proposing that of the 90 or so bigs seeing minutes in the NBA (3 per team), 60 of them are similar talent levels defensively, and 30 of them are various degree of better than that. The average would come out with those 60 guys below average and 30 guys above, but none of particularly far below.
   135. AROM Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:12 PM (#4683554)
#133,

What this tells me is if you go big, you defend better, at the cost of scoring. If you go small, you score more but give some back on D. It makes sense intuitively.

Just got back from Wizards-Bobcats OT game. Best seats I've ever had, center court and about 6 rows back. Exciting game, went to OT, not particularly well played.
   136. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:39 PM (#4683565)
133: I've noticed this before with RAPM. A minor factor, I think, is that it overrates foul prone players (some of the impact of their fouls will be felt after the leave the floor).
   137. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 09, 2014 at 11:40 PM (#4683566)
This announcement moved the line from IND -5.5 to IND -2.5.

...and the Pacers won by two. Vegas always impresses me.
   138. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: April 10, 2014 at 12:11 AM (#4683576)
AROM, do you live in D.C.?

EDIT: Checked your user name history. Got it.
   139. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: April 10, 2014 at 04:01 AM (#4683608)
Kudos (well, blind luck) to the schedule makers: Dallas, Phoenix, and Memphis, which are likely vying for 2 playoff spots, all play each other in these last few games of the season.
   140. jmurph Posted: April 10, 2014 at 12:09 PM (#4683810)
No idea how this ended up on The Millions, a site devoted to book reviews and author interviews, but it's an interesting piece on 15 year old phenom Seventh Woods.
   141. AROM Posted: April 10, 2014 at 01:06 PM (#4683860)
AROM, do you live in D.C.?


Live in Maryland but work in DC, a 10 minute walk from Verizon center. I don't go to many games though, last time I was there Jordan was still playing.
   142. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: April 10, 2014 at 01:40 PM (#4683895)
Bulls and Raps are both closing the season strong (though to be fair, the schedules haven't been *that* hard for either), and they remain tied - with the Raps getting the 3 seed tiebreak by virtue of being a division winner. It now looks much less far-fetched that one of them could give Indy a very difficult series, if not outright upset them (it still is probably at least 70/30 in favor of Indy). It's hard to think ahead to the 2nd round and strategically trying to avoid Miami, considering 1) the Miami/Indy 1/2 can still go either way and 2) the first round series against BKN isn't a given for either team (I probably should give token credit to CHA and WSH here, but Bulls/Rap should beat either of them, IMO).

As a Bulls fan, I think the best case scenario for them would be CHA/IND, followed by WSH/IND then BKN/IND, but it's impossible to try and guess what the seeds will actually shake out to be (BKN at 5 is by far the safest bet, so Bulls would needs lot of help to get either of the first 2 scenarios).

Noah had his 4th triple double of the year last night.

Bulls have signed Ronnie Brewer, Mike James, and Lou Amundson to fill out their roster (and thank Utah for claiming Murphy, which allowed the Bulls a bit more flexibility in signing those guys and avoiding the tax*). Thibs says they probably won't play in the regular rotation at all (just like other in season pickups like Jimmer and Toko Shengelia). Here's hoping the 7 guys in the rotation aren't completely worn down come playoff time.

*There's a theory on the Bulls blogosphere the Bulls knew the Jazz would claim Murphy before releasing him, and further, it might be a token return of a favor for the Bulls giving the Jazz a S&T for Boozer a few years back.
   143. jmurph Posted: April 10, 2014 at 01:49 PM (#4683901)
For me, anything is in play. Well, not the Wiz or Horcats winning a series, but anything else. I still expect the Heat to advance to the Finals, of course, but I have no confidence in that.
   144. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: April 10, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4683985)
   145. bibigon Posted: April 10, 2014 at 03:28 PM (#4683993)
In re: #133 (bigs do well), from a link tweeted by Zach Lowe (http://www.hickory-high.com/is-espns-real-plus-minus-for-real/)

RPM contains a height-based prior which boosts the defensive ratings of all taller players.

This is a final situation where something is included in RPM which improves predictive accuracy, but which introduces a certain amount of bias into the numbers on the individual level. The reason for including the height based prior is simple: on average, big men tend to be much more impactful on the defensive side of the ball than smaller players. Although this is undoubtedly true on average, not all big men are good defenders, so adding the boost to all players who are big will necessarily inflate some undeserving players for the sake of greater overall average accuracy.
   146. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 10, 2014 at 03:42 PM (#4683999)
Really interesting article, thanks!
   147. kpelton Posted: April 11, 2014 at 02:50 AM (#4684260)
It's important to note that the "height-based prior" exists precisely because it correlates with defensive RPM on average. So while it may pull along some big men who are not as useful defensively, AROM's point in 135 (smallball means better offense, big lineups mean better defense) is accurate even with uninformed adjusted plus-minus.

As I said on the podcast, it's important to distinguish between "good" and "important." While big men are generally better than perimeter players, because RPM is additive, the difference between the best big men and the worst ones is similar to the best perimeter players and the worst. So neither is necessarily more important.
   148. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: April 11, 2014 at 02:54 AM (#4684261)
   149. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: April 11, 2014 at 02:58 AM (#4684262)
[url=http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24521839/video-pete-holmes-has-dikembe-mutombo-talk-like-cookie-monster]c is for cookie.[/url

at the 1:55 mark mutombo says c is for cookie
   150. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: April 11, 2014 at 07:14 AM (#4684277)
Kind of amazing that there's an outside shot GSW, a team many discussed as a title contender no less 2ish months ago, may not even make the playoffs. The West is crazy. I wish there was a way for Portland not to make the playoffs.
   151. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: April 11, 2014 at 10:22 AM (#4684382)
Blazers have clinched, right? So of the 4 teams fighting for the last 3 spots, I'd like to see in (in order of preference): Phx, GS, Mem, Dal.
   152. rr Posted: April 11, 2014 at 11:14 AM (#4684434)
538 on "stat guys vs basketball guys" as GMs:


link
   153. rr Posted: April 11, 2014 at 01:08 PM (#4684518)
East: A few analysts/observers have suggested that if Charlotte plays Indiana, the Bobcats can give the Pacers a very rough time.

I said before the season that I thought the key to a Miami 3-peat would be Wade and to a lesser extent Bosh, and I still feel that way. James may have slipped slightly, but he is still pretty much James. The role player guys will have their ups and downs. But Miami had still been pretty dominant when Wade was there, up until the last month. They are (according to what I read--have not counted) 36-15 with Wade, 17-10 without him, and looking at his Game Log, I do see that 7 of the losses with him have come since March 1.

So, if he can go and play well most of the time in the playoffs, I think they can win it again. If he can't, then I don't think they can get it done.
   154. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 11, 2014 at 05:28 PM (#4684743)
It's important to note that the "height-based prior" exists precisely because it correlates with defensive RPM on average. So while it may pull along some big men who are not as useful defensively, AROM's point in 135 (smallball means better offense, big lineups mean better defense) is accurate even with uninformed adjusted plus-minus.
Gotcha. I'm used to thinking of plus-minus as a value measurement, but these adjustments seem more targeted at measuring ability/future performance. Or is the thought that in reducing the single season noise, these adjustments are more likely to give us an accurate view of what a player's actual contribution to his team was than a plus-minus stat that didn't take height and prior years into account?
   155. kpelton Posted: April 11, 2014 at 10:24 PM (#4684870)
I think it's probably a bit of both, but on the latter, a unique thing about RPM is the way the estimates cascade through different players. So if you remove a fluky rating of a single individual, you improve the ratings of his teammates (and even, to a small extent, opponents) too.
   156. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 11, 2014 at 10:32 PM (#4684873)
Andre Drummond just put up a 26 point, 26 rebound game against Noah and the Bulls. Noah didn't shoot well, scoring only six points on 10 shots but also had 10 assists and 12 rebounds.

In 6 games this month, Drummond is averaging 18.5 points and 18.2 rebounds with a 67.1 fg%. He turns 21 in August.
   157. Quaker Posted: April 12, 2014 at 12:59 AM (#4684924)
Spurs are your 2013-14 regular season champs.
   158. Manny Coon Posted: April 12, 2014 at 01:13 AM (#4684928)
Spurs are your 2013-14 regular season champs.


The NBA equivalent of the President's Trophy or Supporters' Shield, maybe they could make up something for this too. MLB and the NBA have the longest regular seasons, but no regular season trophy.
   159. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: April 12, 2014 at 02:46 AM (#4684946)
If we assume that Memphis wins @LAL and Phoenix wins @SAC (probably not safe assumptions), then all teams will be tied other than the MEM-PHX-DAL round-robin. If anyone loses both games, they'd be out, if it's a circle of death Phoenix would be out.
   160. rr Posted: April 12, 2014 at 12:10 PM (#4685029)
According to ESPN, 4 guys have now had 50 points and 6 steals in an NBA game:

Michael Jordan
Rick Barry
Allen Iverson
Corey Brewer

Don't know if the other three did it multiple times; I would guess that each of them might well have. But still...

Golden State clinched a spot last night, and if Dallas beats Phoenix tonight, Dallas is in as well.
   161. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 12, 2014 at 01:26 PM (#4685048)
In 6 games this month, Drummond is averaging 18.5 points and 18.2 rebounds with a 67.1 fg%. He turns 21 in August.
If a team can win with Ben Wallace at center, they can win with Drummond at center. He can board, he can play defense, he can finish at the rim, and he can apparently bone the star of my daughter's favorite TV show. Broad skills.
   162. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: April 12, 2014 at 02:23 PM (#4685076)
and he can apparently bone the star of my daughter's favorite TV show. Broad skills.


Surely iCarly herself is the star of iCarly.

<ashamed of knowledge>
   163. AROM Posted: April 12, 2014 at 02:27 PM (#4685078)
I guess GS owns some tiebreakers to clinch. It is possible that 4 teams finish with exactly 49 wins and tie for the 6-8 spots.

All 3 of the others can finish ahead of GS, but there is no way for them to do so at the same time.
   164. thok Posted: April 12, 2014 at 04:06 PM (#4685106)
I guess GS owns some tiebreakers to clinch.


First tie-break is head to head record: Golden State is 2-2 against Memphis and Phoenix, and 3-1 against Dallas, which is enough to guarantee a playoff spot (since some team will have a below .500 record among the teams in the four way tie.)
   165. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 12, 2014 at 04:28 PM (#4685115)
If a team can win with Ben Wallace at center, they can win with Drummond at center.

I'd like to see some more block shots from Drummond but right now he's looking like a pretty good approximation of Dwight Howard at the same age.
   166. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: April 12, 2014 at 04:52 PM (#4685119)
Surely iCarly herself is the star of iCarly.
<ashamed of knowledge>
Sam now has her own show.
<ashamed of knowledge>
   167. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 13, 2014 at 09:55 AM (#4685315)
Nice Heat piece by LeBatard: Link
   168. rr Posted: April 13, 2014 at 01:12 PM (#4685396)
The LeBatard piece is very florid (although I very much like florid sportswriting sometimes, depending on the subject and the research behind it--I really liked The Echoing Green) and it has ISTM a real Heat fanboy/Riles-pulling-the-strings vibe. But it does do a good job of pointing out that the Phil vs. Pat thing is a real thing in the minds of the two guys IMO, and as I said at the time I believe that is one reason Phil came back.

To tie it together, The Echoing Green is a joint biography of Bobby Thomson and Ralph Branca, focusing, of course, on October 3, 1951. In the hands of a the right writer, a joint biography of Jackson and Riley could be a great read.
   169. steagles Posted: April 14, 2014 at 08:21 AM (#4685775)
because i've got some manor of insomnia, i created a new statistic called STEAGLES FACTOR. it takes into account only turnovers, offensive rebounds, steals and foul proneness. i did not add an adjustment for height. here's names:

top 10 PGs:
ricky rubio, russell westbrook, pablo prigioni, shaun livingston, michael carter williams, chris paul, phil pressey, cj watson, mario chalmers, jrue holiday
bottom 5 PGs:
jose barea, damian lillard, brian roberts, dj augustin, trey burke


top 10 SGs:
tony allen, jimmy butler, thabo sefolosha, iman shumpert, patrick beverly, dwyane wade, nick calathes, tony wroten, marcus thornton, kentavious caldwell-pope
bottom 5 SGs:
gary neal, arron afflalo, tim hardaway, nick young, klay thompson


top 10 SFs:
jeremy evans, pj tucker, al-farouq aminu, shawn marion, kawhi leonard, draymond green, demarre carroll, gerald wallace, mo harkless, trevor ariza
bottom 5 SFs:
richard jefferson, marco belinelli, jr smith, jeff green, martell webster


top 10 PFs:
dajuan blair, jordan hill, kenneth faried, trevor booker, jared sullinger, jj hickson, lavoy allen, greg monroe, zach randolph, tristian thompson
bottom 5 PFs:
dirk nowitzki, ryan kelly, anthony tolliver, channing frye, andrew nicholson


top 10 Cs:
andre drummond, steven adams, sam dalembert, deandre jordan, kosta koufos, anderson varejao, zaza pachulia, joakim noah, robin lopez, nik pekovic
bottom 5: Cs
spencer hawes, andrea bargnani, marc gasol, chris bosh, pau gasol


not really sure this whole thing adds any value at all, but if you could take the top player on each list, that might be an interesting game:
rubio - allen - evans - blair - drummond
barea - neal - jefferson - nowitzki - hawes

or if you take the 5 best players from each group, that'd be pretty interesting, too:
paul - wade - kawhi - faried - noah
lillard - klay - green - nowitski - gasol



^^^^^
actually, STEAGLES has a -.496 correlation with D-rating, which seems really interesting to me considering the collective defensive reputations of the players at the top and bottom of STEAGLES.
i'm sure the difference has a lot to do with defensive rebounds, blocks and maybe a height adjustment, but considering the poor reputation that D-rating has, there might be something worth looking into here.
   170. theboyqueen Posted: April 14, 2014 at 12:55 PM (#4685937)
Don't know how many people saw it, but last night's Warriors-Blazers game was freaking incredible.

I think given his results it's hard to call Mark Jackson a bad coach, and I think the Warriors are truly innovative on the defensive end in a way that maximizes the abilities of their personnel, but their offensive system is a problem. Why, when you have a point guard like Steph Curry who can beat you in every conceivable way a guard can beat you, would you be running so many offensive sets based on guys like Draymond Green and Klay Thompson posting up 20 feet from the basket? The Warriors are a much better offensive team when they fall behind by 15 points because they stop with all their sets and just let Steph go crazy. Their whole offense should be based around Steph going crazy -- I don't think there is a team in the league who could keep up with that.
   171. rr Posted: April 14, 2014 at 02:10 PM (#4685996)
Haberstroh on Minnesota:

I present to you the single craziest stat of the 2013-14 season: In one-possession games (score within three) in the final minute -- also known as "superclutch" situations -- the Timberwolves have been outscored by 49 points in 22 minutes of action this season. I repeat: 49 points.


The raw numbers are 96-47.

The article goes on to document that bad performance late in close games has happened before on teams that featured Kevin Martin, and explains that a bit, although Martin is not the only reason, of course. Rubio's shooting is another issue.

It's Insider, so I can't link it.
   172. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: April 14, 2014 at 03:22 PM (#4686041)
Bulls released Shengalia and signed Greg Smith. Smith is hurt, but gets a contract for next year. Rumblings are the Bulls are building up small contracts (some of the other ones they recently signed are non-guaranteed for next year) just in case they need to make deals in some sort of sign and trade. Melo is still a long, long shot, but I can't help but think the Bulls aren't prepping just in case.

Though Melo couldn't have been impressed with the Bulls last night. I was surprised to see the Knicks play so well in the first game after getting eliminated (and seems like the Bulls might have also been surprised). As much as Friday went their way (Raps losing, Heat taking top seed), yesterday/Saturday didn't (Pacers taking back top seed and Bulls falling back to 4). The Bulls aren't (and can't be) trying to line up their 2nd round series, but gosh if it just doesn't look that way at times.

---

Lots of people are starting to publish end of year ballots. Seems like Durant is going to get MVP. I'm seeing lots of votes for Noah for DPOY and Gibson for 6th man.
   173. tshipman Posted: April 14, 2014 at 06:43 PM (#4686164)
Haberstroh on Minnesota:

I present to you the single craziest stat of the 2013-14 season: In one-possession games (score within three) in the final minute -- also known as "superclutch" situations -- the Timberwolves have been outscored by 49 points in 22 minutes of action this season. I repeat: 49 points.


I'm sort of lukewarm on Kevin Love. For you guys who think he's a top 5 player, does this stat give you pause at all?

Does Love need to be paired with an alpha dog to be at his max effectiveness?

Why, when you have a point guard like Steph Curry who can beat you in every conceivable way a guard can beat you, would you be running so many offensive sets based on guys like Draymond Green and Klay Thompson posting up 20 feet from the basket? The Warriors are a much better offensive team when they fall behind by 15 points because they stop with all their sets and just let Steph go crazy. Their whole offense should be based around Steph going crazy -- I don't think there is a team in the league who could keep up with that.


Steph Curry is really interesting. I think he's the most interesting player in the league. There's never been a player like him as the cornerstone of a championship team ... but then, there's never really been another player like him. He might be my pick for 5th best player (after LBJ, Durant, CP3 and the Brow).
   174. theboyqueen Posted: April 14, 2014 at 07:05 PM (#4686171)
Steph Curry is really interesting. I think he's the most interesting player in the league. There's never been a player like him as the cornerstone of a championship team ... but then, there's never really been another player like him. He might be my pick for 5th best player (after LBJ, Durant, CP3 and the Brow).


I agree with all of that. His skills and showmanship remind me of Jason Williams more than anybody, but he is also the best shooter in the league. I can't see how a team could have a below average offense with him playing point guard but there you go.

Tony Parker is a roughly similar player who has been a champion (though not the centerpiece obviously).

If nothing else, he is the most entertaining player in the league by some measure.
   175. Manny Coon Posted: April 14, 2014 at 07:40 PM (#4686189)
The raw numbers are 96-47.

The article goes on to document that bad performance late in close games has happened before on teams that featured Kevin Martin, and explains that a bit, although Martin is not the only reason, of course. Rubio's shooting is another issue.


How many possessions is that? Is it mostly defense like most the other stats show? Rubio's shooting gets a lot of attention, but he's basically their best defender most of the time, so if the problem is defense then it's probably counter productive to take him, especially for someone like Barea.

I thought their close win against Houston the other day was interesting, they won a close game without Love, Pekovic or Martin, but with Rubio. Last night they lost a close game with Love back in the lineup, but was more a rally that fell short, rather blowing a close lead.

I think Dieng has helped them in close situations, are there any numbers available that show how they are doing with Dieng late/close instead of Pekovic? 82games hasn't really been updated since Dieng started playing more.
   176. Maxwn Posted: April 14, 2014 at 08:32 PM (#4686209)
22 minutes is an extremely small slice of data. I would be quite surprised if you could extract much if any useful information from a sample that small. That's not even an entire half. It seems to me that essentially anything can happen in 22 mins of basketball. My strong presumption is that a slice of data that fine can't be much more than a curiosity. Certainly not the craziest stat of the season. The entire reason we care about sample size is because crazy #### happens in small samples. Maybe there's something there, but I doubt there is any way to know that.
   177. theboyqueen Posted: April 14, 2014 at 09:41 PM (#4686239)
Is it even possible to give up 96 points in 22 minutes? That tells me the Wolves must be starting from behind in most of these situations because they must be giving up a hell of a lot of free throws.
   178. theboyqueen Posted: April 14, 2014 at 09:42 PM (#4686240)
Or that someone screwed up their math and this is not a correct "stat".
   179. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 14, 2014 at 09:53 PM (#4686243)
Bogut has a fractured rib. Out indefinitely.
   180. tshipman Posted: April 14, 2014 at 10:48 PM (#4686278)
Tony Parker is a roughly similar player who has been a champion (though not the centerpiece obviously).


Not to rip Parker's game, but he's no shooter. His career high in 3p attempts is 243. That's less than half a Steph Curry season.

If nothing else, he is the most entertaining player in the league by some measure.


This I agree on.
   181. Maxwn Posted: April 14, 2014 at 11:13 PM (#4686290)
Is it even possible to give up 96 points in 22 minutes? That tells me the Wolves must be starting from behind in most of these situations because they must be giving up a hell of a lot of free throws.

This is a good point. That 22 min slice is even noisier than I thought initially because it is point differential number specifically drawn from periods where intentional foul rates are very high. We look at point differential because it is a decent indicator of how well a team has played. But intentional fouls affect point differential without really saying anything about how well teams are playing during the slice of time that includes the intentional foul. They are made for purely strategic reasons. If a team was the trailing team about as often as they were the leading team that would mostly wash out, but I don't see any reason to think that necessarily would be the case. It strikes me that a team could wind up being the fouling team a lot more than the fouled team in a season just through randomness. That would have disastrous effects on their point differential during the last minute of close games without really saying much about their performance in "superclutch" situations.
   182. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 14, 2014 at 11:18 PM (#4686292)
Man, watching Mo Speights and Jordan Crawford play together for extended periods of time is not pleasant.
   183. theboyqueen Posted: April 15, 2014 at 12:09 AM (#4686311)
Neither of those guys are very useful players. Crawford is what Curry would be if he couldn't shoot. Speights is the king of the bricked 20 footer. Losing Bogut for any period of time is going to hurt this team a lot.
   184. theboyqueen Posted: April 15, 2014 at 12:12 AM (#4686312)
Draymond Green, however, is a VERY good player -- 6th man of the year candidate?
   185. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 15, 2014 at 12:19 AM (#4686313)
Crawford is what Curry would be if he couldn't shoot.
Or pass.

And yes, Green is fantastic.
   186. rr Posted: April 15, 2014 at 12:52 AM (#4686328)
Maybe there's something there, but I doubt there is any way to know that.


I am not arguing either for it or against it, but it works better as an argument/case if you read the whole thing. But again, it is behind the pay wall, so I can't link it.

As an aside, there are Lakers fans in the Lakers blogosphere who are actively pissed off that the Lakers beat Utah tonight (while Boston lost to Philly). That pretty much locks up 1-6 in Pingpongballella:

MIL
PHI
ORL
UTAH/BOS
BOS/UTAH
LAL
   187. andrewberg Posted: April 15, 2014 at 01:39 PM (#4686439)
FWIW, the Wolves do have an extremely high FT rate surrendered in those last few minute situations. I have seen it postulated that Love and Pek start getting more handsy in those situations (even though the team concedes VERY few FTA in general) due to a lack of athleticism. I don't see why those situations would be so drastically different than other situations. I think it is more likely that something weird has happened in a tiny sample. As others have noted, the pairing with Dieng makes more sense for Love in terms of fit if not raw skill.
   188. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: April 15, 2014 at 02:49 PM (#4686488)
Heat conceded the 1 seed to the Pacers last night by sitting LBJ and Bosh. Of course, they have to claim they're not chasing matchups, even if they are (and if they are, it doesn't make it not smart). Bulls are pretty much locked into the 4 seed, so that works for them (assuming they get by the Nets in the first round again).

Been very quiet around here lately, guess we're all ready for playoffs to start.
   189. Darkness and the howling fantods Posted: April 15, 2014 at 03:01 PM (#4686499)
Here's Zach Lowe's MVP ballot from his awards column:

1. Kevin Durant
2. LeBron James
3. Stephen Curry
4. Joakim Noah
5. Blake Griffin
   190. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: April 15, 2014 at 03:26 PM (#4686525)
Here's Zach Lowe's MVP ballot from his awards column:

And he's rightfully very high on Noah, Gibson and Thibs in his voting (he has a vote this year).

EDIT: And if there was a Most Improved Player in-season award, DJ Augustin would win it - 1.2 PER in Toronto, 17.0 in Chicago (hell, he should be considered on the existing ballot anyway). I think Thibs might be a backup PG whisperer, in addition to defensive whiz.
   191. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: April 15, 2014 at 03:31 PM (#4686533)
Been very quiet around here lately, guess we're all ready for playoffs to start.


Yeah -- this is the part of the season where the most exciting thing generally going on is tankapalooza (and maybe a competition between a couple marginal playoff teams to get whacked). Even with the fact that the Grizz/Suns/Mavs are better than the usual fringe teams, it's still doldrummy.

Round 1 of the West playoffs will be mighty interesting, as it would be no surprise to see a legitimate championship contender go down.
   192. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: April 15, 2014 at 03:31 PM (#4686534)
And since I didn't see it before (or mentioned here), I just *have* to post STAT's recent (like 2 days ago) quote about the Knicks:

In early October, expectations for the Knicks were fairly high.

Most predicted that New York would finish among the top four teams in the East.

Now that they’ve failed to make the playoffs, those expectations seem a bit foolish.

But Amar'e Stoudemire insists they were way too low.

Amar'e Stoudemire wasn't joking when he gave his assessment of the Knicks' talent.

“They should have been a little bit higher if you ask me,” Stoudemire said on Sunday. “On paper we might be the best team in the league. We’ve got great players on this team who accomplished so much. We just couldn’t put it together.”


Even if you do one of those things where you pretend every player on the roster is at their best, the Knicks aren't the best team on paper (or if only the Knicks are at their peak and every other team is at their current levels).
   193. Booey Posted: April 15, 2014 at 03:34 PM (#4686538)
As an aside, there are Lakers fans in the Lakers blogosphere who are actively pissed off that the Lakers beat Utah tonight (while Boston lost to Philly). That pretty much locks up 1-6 in Pingpongballella:


I can understand that. I turned the game on at the beginning of the 4th, saw that it was tied and was afraid that the Jazz might actually win. Luckily, the Lakers went on a huge run shortly afterwards and put my fears to rest. A Jazz win would've put them ahead of LAL by virtue of the tie-breaker, and ahead of Boston as well. So yeah, losing 1-2 spots in the lottery odds just for one extra win wouldn't have been worth it.

Swaggy P sure had himself a game, didn't he?

   194. Quaker Posted: April 15, 2014 at 03:49 PM (#4686550)
Tiebreaker for a draft spots is a coin flip.
   195. Booey Posted: April 15, 2014 at 03:50 PM (#4686552)
So who does everyone see as the top 5 in the draft as of now (assuming Parker makes it official that he's coming out)? If the lottery plays out exactly as the actual records did (no guarantee, obviously), is there much chance the Jazz could get Jabari with the 4th pick? I could see Embiid and Wiggins going before him. Is there anyone else that could feasibly squeeze in there too so the world can give me what I want?

(I'd be just fine with Wiggins too)
   196. Booey Posted: April 15, 2014 at 03:52 PM (#4686555)
Tiebreaker for a draft spots is a coin flip.


D'oh! Yeah, I'm sure I knew that at some point. Still, why take the chance when a perfectly timed 4th quarter meltdown works even better?
   197. jmurph Posted: April 15, 2014 at 04:07 PM (#4686564)
Moses: so, 24% trolling and 76% serious question: does the DJ Augustin Experience make Rose seem a little less impressive?
   198. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: April 15, 2014 at 04:11 PM (#4686568)
Dante Exum is the draft wildcard. I'm very high on him. I imagine though that teams will certainly be reluctant to draft an international high school kid with little high-level experience, given the safer bets on the board (not that any draftee is *really* a safe bet, but it is hard to see Wiggins or Parker being totally useless; Embiid, if back problems persist, is possible but consensus seems to be that he has the highest ceiling).
   199. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: April 15, 2014 at 04:15 PM (#4686571)
Moses: so, 24% trolling and 76% serious question: does the DJ Augustin Experience make Rose seem a little less impressive?

No. And I don't know why it would. As fun as Augustin is (and NateRob was last year), the Bulls overall offense is totally different with Rose (ORtgs Rose's years under Thibs are 108.3 (11th) and 107.4 (2nd); last 2 years without Rose they're 103.5 (23rd) and 102.7 (28th)). Not to mention Rose is still significantly better than DJ/NateRob, in more minutes and not just against backups. And we haven't talked about defense yet.

It only means the Bulls might be ok if DJ priced himself out of their plans next year. And that down on their luck PGs should sign a deal with Chicago so they can get paid the next year.
   200. jmurph Posted: April 15, 2014 at 04:16 PM (#4686573)
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