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Saturday, February 02, 2013

OT: NBA Monthly Thread - February 2013

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: abstinence and William Howard Taft.

The District Attorney Posted: February 02, 2013 at 11:56 AM | 1151 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   1101. Booey Posted: March 02, 2013 at 01:19 AM (#4378859)
No seriously, FLIP!
   1102. andrewberg Posted: March 02, 2013 at 01:24 AM (#4378865)
Booey, how would you allocate Utah's minutes? More Heyward, less Williams, probably more Burks seem obvious, no?
   1103. Maxwn Posted: March 02, 2013 at 02:51 AM (#4378961)
Man, I really would rather not play Denver in the 1st round. I damn sure don't want to play them without home court.
   1104. Booey Posted: March 02, 2013 at 12:51 PM (#4379164)
Booey, how would you allocate Utah's minutes? More Heyward, less Williams, probably more Burks seem obvious, no?


Definitely. Marvin, Watson, and Tinsley would join Kevin Murphy at the very end of the bench and only get minutes in garbage time of blowouts. Until Mo Williams gets back, Foye would move over to start at point and play half the game, with Burks coming in to play the other half. Hayward would start at SG and play 35 minutes a game, with Carroll backing him up (he's grown on me - I didn't like him at the start of year, but I see his value now, so score one - and only one - for Corbin). I'd start the big front line of Jefferson, Favors, and Millsap (at the 3), shuffling around the two forwards when Favors has to sit with foul trouble (which would be often), and giving Kanter 30 minutes a night backing up both the C and PF positions. Jeremy Evans would get 10-15 minutes a night as the backup SF.

So let's see:

PF - Favors - 32 min
SF - Millsap - 35 min
C - Jefferson - 35 min
SG - Hayward - 35 min
PG - Foye - 24 min

C/PF - Kanter - 30 min
PG - Burks - 24 min
SG - Carrol - 13 min
SF - Evans - 12 min


240 minutes, on the dot.
   1105. Spivey Posted: March 02, 2013 at 01:15 PM (#4379173)
Marvin Williams career is kind of crazy. He belongs in basketball, but for some reason he continues to start and be the weak link on playoff teams. It's amazing how long the UNC/#2 pick shine has stayed on him, given that he does nothing well.
   1106. Booey Posted: March 02, 2013 at 03:07 PM (#4379205)
To add to my 1104, I see 3 major benefits:

First, I think we'd be a better team NOW. This way would give more minutes to some of our best players who aren't getting enough (Favors, Hayward, Kanter), while cutting down (or eliminating entirely) the minutes of our worst players (Marvin, Watson, Tinsley). Our two current best players (Millsap, Al) would still get their minutes without having to hold back the development of our young bigs like they're doing now (who will likely replace them in a year or so anyway).

Second, this plan would help us better prepare for our future. Old journeymen roster fillers like Watson and Tinsley or below average role players like Williams aren't part of our long term building plans (or they sure as hell better not be, anyway). So why give them minutes over youngsters who are A) already better, and B) have the potential to improve even more? If guys like Hayward, Favors, Kanter, and Burks are going to be the core of our team going forward, why not give them the experience now so they can handle it when it's time to take over the reigns from Jefferson and Millsap as the top dawgs?

And third, think of the fans, man. My team would be a helluva lot more entertaining than the current one to the casual fan. I don't know anyone who follows the Jazz that wouldn't rather see more of Hayward, Favors, Kanter, Burks, and Evans rather than the corpses of Earl Watson, Jamaal Tinsley, and Marvin Williams.
   1107. PJ Martinez Posted: March 02, 2013 at 03:38 PM (#4379214)
Parker out four weeks.
   1108. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: March 02, 2013 at 04:12 PM (#4379226)
This Parker injury may end up being pretty significant. Home court in a potential series with the Thunder and/or Heat could be the deciding factor.
   1109. PJ Martinez Posted: March 02, 2013 at 06:03 PM (#4379265)
   1110. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 02, 2013 at 06:03 PM (#4379267)
So let's see:

PF - Favors - 32 min
SF - Millsap - 35 min
C - Jefferson - 35 min
SG - Hayward - 35 min
PG - Foye - 24 min

C/PF - Kanter - 30 min
PG - Burks - 24 min
SG - Carrol - 13 min
SF - Evans - 12 min


I would do this, except give Williams Evans' minutes. Williams has been horrendous, but he's still got to be better than Evans, and he at least theoretically can shoot from 3 and is definitely a better wing defender than Evans. What do you do once Mo comes back though? I'd want him to take minutes away primarily from Marvin and Foye, but he'd probably have to take some of Burks as well. Maybe get Mo up to about 24 minutes (12 from Marvin, 6 from Foye and Burks each)?
   1111. Manny Coon Posted: March 02, 2013 at 06:28 PM (#4379280)
The Jazz have allowed 9 more points per 48 with Jefferson on the floor this year and he's the least efficient scorer of their bigs, would the Jazz be better off if Jefferson was mysteriously injured the rest of year and all their big minutes went to Kanter/Favors/Millsap? It seems like it would make them much better on defense and probably improve their offense as well. Kanter is the most efficient scorer of the group and has his minutes most limited by the presence of Jefferson.

I just don't see Millsap as a SF, he's not as good offensively away from the basket and seems way too slow to be good perimeter defender, particularly when it comes rotating out to shooters.
   1112. Manny Coon Posted: March 02, 2013 at 06:35 PM (#4379284)
Marvin Williams career is kind of crazy. He belongs in basketball, but for some reason he continues to start and be the weak link on playoff teams. It's amazing how long the UNC/#2 pick shine has stayed on him, given that he does nothing well.


Williams was mostly fine on the Hawks he was a good rebounder, solid defender, his scoring efficiency was ok, and he limited turnovers. His WS/48 was above average his last 4 years with the Hawks. I think is biggest problem was bitterness over where he was drafted and who he was drafted over, if he was drafted 15th instead of 2nd, he would have probably been a lot more popular.

With the Jazz he's been much worse, his rebounding is way down, his scoring efficiency is way down, his turnovers are up. He's not useless, but he's been significantly below average this year.
   1113. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 02, 2013 at 06:39 PM (#4379287)
That lineup lacks playmaking, spacing, and perimeter defense.

Jazz needed to move Al for something and to find backcourt help - but you knew that.
   1114. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 02, 2013 at 06:48 PM (#4379290)
Edit: double post, one short of that lineup
   1115. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 02, 2013 at 07:49 PM (#4379311)
i don't get why jazz haven't had Evans get extended D-League time as a three - he needs reps, he's always needed reps, and he doesn't get them. let him demonstrate how he can use his athleticism, find a role for it.

# of guys in that lineup who average at least an assist every ten minutes: zero. yes, assists are partly a function of role but .... eeew.
   1116. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: March 02, 2013 at 08:51 PM (#4379330)
I saw this on Twitter the other day: Miami's starting five has a slightly younger average age (22.4) than the starting five of the New Orleans Hornets (23).

That's the Miami Hurricanes of the ACC.
   1117. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: March 02, 2013 at 09:17 PM (#4379335)
A couple of crazy sets of numbers from OKC-DEN (in Denver) last night:
Free Throws:
Russell Westbrook (12 of 17)
Denver Nuggets (12 of 17)
Bench Scoring:
OKC 11
DEN 71

   1118. Booey Posted: March 02, 2013 at 10:20 PM (#4379358)
I would do this, except give Williams Evans' minutes


I could be talked into that. Evans probably isn't good, but he's at least fun. Marvin is neither. It bugs me that he's been in the league for this long and he seems to have no idea how to get himself involved in our offense for entire games. We've used him as nothing more than a spot up 3 pt shooter for many games, but his percentage (33.8) isn't good enough to warrant that kind of role.

What do you do once Mo comes back though? I'd want him to take minutes away primarily from Marvin and Foye, but he'd probably have to take some of Burks as well. Maybe get Mo up to about 24 minutes (12 from Marvin, 6 from Foye and Burks each)?


I'd probably drop Foye and Burks minutes down to about 15 each, and then take another 5 apiece from Carroll and Evans/Marvin, letting Hayward get some minutes at SF and Foye/Burks at SG. That'd be 28 minutes for Mo.

That lineup lacks playmaking, spacing, and perimeter defense.


Yep. But I don't think we have the personel to field a team with good playmaking or perimeter defense. Our current lineups aren't good at those things either.

Jazz needed to move Al for something and to find backcourt help - but you knew that.


Yes indeed. But I was going with the players they currently have, not the hypothetical trades they should make. Simmons mentioned in his contract article that the Jazz will regret not trading for Bledsoe. I'd agree if that trade was ever really an option, but we don't know if it was. Since the Clips would've had to be pretty dumb to pull the trigger, I kinda doubt it was ever actually on the table.

# of guys in that lineup who average at least an assist every ten minutes: zero. yes, assists are partly a function of role but .... eeew.


Yeah, but the only guys who can get any assists at all on our current team are Watson and Tinsley, who are complete zero's on offense (and probably on defense too, since they're old and small).
   1119. Quaker Posted: March 02, 2013 at 10:47 PM (#4379369)
Without looking, I'm willing to bet that any analysis that calls Jefferson the least efficient offensively of the Jazz's big doesn't take turnovers into account or the fact that he's often the guy taking tough shots down the stretch/as the shot clock runs out. I'd bet on Al to score more effectively than Favors/Kanter in the post at this point in their careers.

Whether the Jazz are actually better off overall with Al is a different question. His Simple Rating on 82games was excellent last season; this year it is +.6. Favors' isn't much better, but both Kanter & Millsap are over 4. Most of the statistical evidence seems to indicate (and Zach Lowe seems to agree) that the Jazz will be best served to bring back Millsap and look to add perimeter help in FA or via S&T in the offseason. Personally, I'd be fine with that. Mo is the one guy I really don't want back in a starting role. His 82games numbers are dreadful-- -5 --and he just seemed to think himself the star of the team. He'd be fine in a Jason Terry role, but I think if they bring him back he will start, take too many shots and allow too many easy buckets.

Jazz fans what would you think about the following S&T's (I think they'd be cap legal)?
MoWill + Millsap for Pau's big expiring contract
Millsap for Thomas Robinson
   1120. Quaker Posted: March 02, 2013 at 10:59 PM (#4379375)
Without looking, I'm willing to bet that any analysis that calls Jefferson the least efficient offensively of the Jazz's big doesn't take turnovers into account or the fact that he's often the guy taking tough shots down the stretch/as the shot clock runs out. I'd bet on Al to score more effectively than Favors/Kanter in the post at this point in their careers.

Whether the Jazz are actually better off overall with Al is a different question. His Simple Rating on 82games was excellent last season; this year it is +.6. Favors' isn't much better, but both Kanter & Millsap are over 4. Most of the statistical evidence seems to indicate (and Zach Lowe seems to agree) that the Jazz will be best served to bring back Millsap and look to add perimeter help in FA or via S&T in the offseason. Personally, I'd be fine with that. Mo is the one guy I really don't want back in a starting role. His 82games numbers are dreadful-- -5 --and he just seemed to think himself the star of the team. He'd be fine in a Jason Terry current role, but I think if they bring him back he will take too many shots and allow too many easy buckets.

Jazz fans what would you think about the following S&T's (I think they'd be cap legal)?
MoWill + Millsap for Pau's big expiring contract
Millsap for Thomas Robinson
   1121. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 02, 2013 at 11:29 PM (#4379389)
Foye has spent a good chunk of his career demonstrating that he can't play point. I say dump tinsley, sign a d league guy, keep Watson around as a tutor.

Utah should've signed pat Beverley when they had the chance...

I also doubt they could've landed Bledsoe at a reasonable price
**

I think that lineup would struggle more than the team does now - getting sped past on d and with a clogged lane (and no one to make entry passes) on o.
Outside of currently available configurations, do people see Hayward as a 2 or 3?

**

I don't do either deal, if I'm Utah.
   1122. Booey Posted: March 02, 2013 at 11:33 PM (#4379392)
Quaker - I'd say no to either. We need guards, not more bigs.
   1123. Booey Posted: March 02, 2013 at 11:36 PM (#4379394)
Outside of currently available configurations, do people see Hayward as a 2 or 3?


In an ideal situation I think he should be used more as a 2. He probably plays 3 on the Jazz cuz Millsap isn't quick enough to do it and Marvin sucks too badly to play starters minutes.
   1124. Quaker Posted: March 02, 2013 at 11:38 PM (#4379396)
#### double post
   1125. Spivey Posted: March 02, 2013 at 11:59 PM (#4379407)
Larry Sanders! Don't go for the eyebrow fake!

Just got badly juked by Alan Anderson in an end of game iso.
   1126. Spivey Posted: March 03, 2013 at 12:07 AM (#4379412)
HOW THE #### CAN YOU CALL A JUMP BALL THERE?
   1127. Manny Coon Posted: March 03, 2013 at 12:09 AM (#4379413)
Without looking, I'm willing to bet that any analysis that calls Jefferson the least efficient offensively of the Jazz's big doesn't take turnovers into account or the fact that he's often the guy taking tough shots down the stretch/as the shot clock runs out. I'd bet on Al to score more effectively than Favors/Kanter in the post at this point in their careers.


You're right I was being lazy just looking at TS% when I said that and didn't realize Kanter's turnover rate is as bad as it is. So Jefferson is probably a little better on offense, but not by any huge amount and he's a drastically worse defender and unlike the others doesn't have room to improve.
   1128. Spivey Posted: March 03, 2013 at 12:19 AM (#4379419)
It's looking like a slam dunk that Milwaukee plays Miami in the playoffs now. I may have to get a playoff ticket for that.
   1129. Quaker Posted: March 03, 2013 at 12:29 AM (#4379427)
WTF everytime you hit refresh it reposts your most recent post? What is this ####?
   1130. RollingWave Posted: March 03, 2013 at 01:06 AM (#4379452)
MoWill + Millsap for Pau's big expiring contract
Millsap for Thomas Robinson


Interesting, though by question is if those two aren't gonna return to Utah anyway what's the value of getting their Bird rights? I'd also figure if it's a S&T at least Millsap surely is due for a raise, so you figure they wouldn't really save cap room, though I guess having 2 solid player helps a team that lack depth so badly.

The question of Gasol has been brought up before, any team that might get him without losing much would be extremely smart. though it really depend on what exactly is the Lakers looking at here.

As for Millsap for Robinson..... not sure why the Rockets would do that, on paper Millsap isn't much different form Josh Smith and that would only cost them money, and I don't think Houston would have problem convincing people to play for them.


   1131. Quaker Posted: March 03, 2013 at 02:23 AM (#4379491)
I proposed both with the idea that Jefferson is not back so Utah would start either Gasol/Favors w/Kanter off the bench or Kanter/Favors w/Robinson off the bench.

But upon further research, it looks like neither is feasible under the new CBA. I don't think the Lakers can do S&Ts; because they are too far over the cap, and I thought Millsap could get an extra year by being S&T'ed to Houston rather than signing directly, but they removed that provision. Now the max deal length for any S&T is four years.





   1132. PJ Martinez Posted: March 03, 2013 at 05:50 PM (#4379881)
The Clippers should have traded for Garnett. Guess they can revisit the deal in the offseason.
   1133. tfbg9 Posted: March 03, 2013 at 09:31 PM (#4379919)
F*ck off Knicks. Ugh. That. Is. All.
   1134. RollingWave Posted: March 03, 2013 at 09:39 PM (#4379920)
shouldn't there be a new thread now?

Also, Linsanity apparently decides to show up today. he and Parsons is torching the Mavs

Parson was 11 for 11 on the field an 2-2 at the line before finally missing a 3.
   1135. RollingWave Posted: March 03, 2013 at 09:50 PM (#4379924)
Dallas @ Houston's 3rd quarter score, 14:40 with 1:45 to go.

final for that 3rd quarter , 17: 44, with Houston already scoring 108 ... at the end of the 3rd.

   1136. Famous Original Joe C Posted: March 03, 2013 at 10:20 PM (#4379930)
F*ck off Knicks. Ugh. That. Is. All.


What, specifically, is this referring to?
   1137. RollingWave Posted: March 03, 2013 at 10:31 PM (#4379935)
Well, Houston demolished Dallas and most of their remaining playoff hopes tonight 136:103 first time Houston won against Dallas in years.

No Houston starter even played 30 minutes. (ok Harden played 30:21)

Lin : 21 points 9 ass in 24 min

Parsons : 32 points in 30 min(!!)

Asik : 10 / 10 and 5 steal (wtf) in 26 min

   1138. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: March 03, 2013 at 11:06 PM (#4379939)
If I had to pick one player who would get involved in international diplomacy when his playing days are over, I would totally have picked Dennis Rodman.
   1139. rr Posted: March 03, 2013 at 11:08 PM (#4379940)
I assume that tfbg9 is a Knicks fan and is presumably unhappy with the results of this afternoon's game.
   1140. rr Posted: March 03, 2013 at 11:09 PM (#4379942)
Yes, the Rodman/North Korea story is one of the more bizarre confluences of sports and politics that I can ever recall and just one of the odder stories that I can recall, period.
   1141. RollingWave Posted: March 03, 2013 at 11:15 PM (#4379944)
However, it is completely fitting to send Rodman to North Korea in a bizarro way.

Too bad he dressed normally (by his standard), or it would be even more awesome.
   1142. RollingWave Posted: March 03, 2013 at 11:21 PM (#4379947)
I assume that tfbg9 is a Knicks fan and is presumably unhappy with the results of this afternoon's game.


Whats worse is that the Heat were totally giving the Knicks a chance to win, they were under 70% from the line.

Pretty much all the Felton is better than Lin crowd are now eating a huge dose of STFU crow.

Also, Houston is now tied with Utah for the 7th seed (though still down 1 in the loss column) and just half a game back from the Warriors.
   1143. Manny Coon Posted: March 04, 2013 at 12:12 AM (#4379958)
The Clippers should have traded for Garnett. Guess they can revisit the deal in the offseason.


Because unlike Jordan and Bledsoe, VDN wouldn't be so dense not use Garnett. You're getting eaten up by Westbrook and you don't play your freakishly athletic guard and your long shot blocking center to help slow him down? What is the worst that is going to happen if they play Paul and Bledsoe together? OKC going to run a bunch of post ups for Sefolosha to exploit it?

What the Clippers need more than anything is real coach, it's amazing they've done as well as they have considering how seemingly inept Del Negro is at times.
   1144. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 04, 2013 at 12:27 AM (#4379962)
Quick glance at advanced stats doesn't convince me that Lin is better than Felton (I think Lin is both better and more valuable, but...)
   1145. PJ Martinez Posted: March 04, 2013 at 01:06 AM (#4379971)
The Clippers should be playing Bledsoe more, but they go to Crawford a lot late in games, so unless you're going to go *really* small (i.e., with Crawford at the 3), Bledsoe's probably not playing at the end. And Jordan is not exactly an ideal 4th-quarter center.

I'm far from impartial, obviously, but I really do think the Clippers should try to build a massive deal, probably with a third team involved, that lands them both Garnett and Pierce. Ainge might balk in the end, but he's clearly willing to listen. And Chris Paul's prime won't last forever.
   1146. RollingWave Posted: March 04, 2013 at 01:10 AM (#4379973)
Quick glance at advanced stats doesn't convince me that Lin is better than Felton (I think Lin is both better and more valuable, but...)


This year yeah, though win share does have Lin being at least 1 win better. not a huge difference but certainly something.

Also, the two players are trending at opposite direction.

It is clear that Lin isn't a fluke at least, he's about where most rational folks thought he probably would be this year, unfortunately reading around the web you find that there's a surprising lack of rational folks on the subject of Lin.
   1147. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: March 04, 2013 at 01:47 AM (#4379978)
Rose really needs to come back, they win games like tonight when he is in the lineup...
   1148. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: March 04, 2013 at 01:48 AM (#4379981)
Rodman is perfect to be the diplomat for north korea. he has enough crazy in him to understand them, and seems to have the ear of the dictator.
   1149. Manny Coon Posted: March 04, 2013 at 01:57 AM (#4379983)
The Clippers should be playing Bledsoe more, but they go to Crawford a lot late in games, so unless you're going to go *really* small (i.e., with Crawford at the 3), Bledsoe's probably not playing at the end. And Jordan is not exactly an ideal 4th-quarter center


It's not like Odom is an ideal 4th quarter center either, he's not making FTs either (or any other types of shots). And Hollins and Turiaf aren't ideal any quarter players, even without cutting Odom's minutes all of their minutes today could have easily gone to Jordan and in such a close game could have been the difference.

With Bledsoe, whether or not he's in at the end he needs to be playing more, less than 10 minutes is crazy. He's one of their 3 or 4 best players and needs to be out there. Not playing him with Paul because he's 6'1" is crazy, it's like the story when the Celtics tried out Ben Wallace and thought he was a wing player because they thought too small to C or PF. Most 6'1" guys are too small for SG, but Bledsoe is very obviously not most guys, in the same way Barkley wasn't most 6'5" PFs or Wallace wasn't most 6'8" centers. Bledsoe's rebounding rate is more than double Billups or Crawford, almost double Green, and even better than guys like Butler and Hill. Bledsoe's block rate is even more insane for his size, it's about the same as Odom's and nearly double Griffin's. Bledsoe obviously plays much, much bigger than his size and a better coach would find a way to make use of him and Paul at the same time.
   1150. RollingWave Posted: March 04, 2013 at 02:44 AM (#4379992)
Also, Chandler Parson went 12-13 on his way to 32 points, and was 11-11 before missing a shot. oh right he was also their main defender on Dirk which probably shows the teams thoughts on his defensive ability. how the hell did he slip to the 2nd round again?
   1151. The District Attorney Posted: March 04, 2013 at 09:23 AM (#4380038)
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