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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Sunday, March 03, 2013
I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: hunting and apostrophes.

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There are some definite similarities between them. Walker had far better college PER ratings (somewhat driven by usage as their TS and eFG% were similar), plus he graded out as a much better athlete (5" vert advantage, must faster sprint). Walker has shown that he can play in the NBA already, so I think the comparison functions more as a compliment to Wright and a reminder that college systems can disguise individual playmaking ability at times.
On their inactivity at the deadline:
Defensive problems:
Coaching problems:
There's plenty more good stuff in there as well.
Like Lowe, I find the idea that Favors can't be a true center bewildering. I disagree with him on the inconsistency of Favors and Kanter's midrange jumpers; Favor is simply awful at any shot outside of about 5 feet, while Kanter has been well above average and looked great knocking down jumpers. I don't want the Jazz to give up on developing Favors' post game or jumpshot, but he doesn't look like he has any touch for either -- no range on his jumper and he loses sense of where the basket is when he has his back to the basket. He's been better off getting the ball in the post then turning to face the basket and using his quickness to get past his defender.
As for Kanter, David Locke compares his upside to Carlos Boozer on offense, which I can see based on how good he's looked drilling jumpers on pick and rolls. I don't know about his ability to finish with both hands at the basket like Boozer though, and Kanter already has a better low post game. Unlike Boozer, he's also actively defensively and though he still gets lost on rotations as Lowe points out, he's already improved significantly from last year.
Corbin simply has to go. Jazz are a mess defensively, and his best excuse for not getting more PT for the young players is negated by the fact that his most commonly used rotations have been so awful.
Consistency might mean being scoutable and beatable (without adjustments), but that's a playoff kind of thing, and the Jazz would do well to have that problem.
The Lakers have a nasty little road trip going on right now. Orlando tonight, Atlanta tomorrow, and then Indiana on Friday. This could be very easily be an 0-3 trip, and then Utah could once again be right where it was two weeks ago, in the 8th spot with the Lakers 2, 3 games out.
I can see how the early part of the season would make you pessimistic, but it strikes me as extremely unlikely that they will go 0-3 on this trip as well as they are playing right now. They've had a positive point differential all year and they're +3.4 since the ASB.
The Orlando game is the easy one, but games on the road can be very unpredictable.
LINK
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I think these numbers are probably connected in some ways to Nash and Howard, although I can't prove it.
As to Lakers/Utah for the 8th seed, I think the Lakers will probably (as in, say 60-40) get it now, but it is not the given that some in the MSM seem to think.
Lowe, Pelton, and Goldsberry are all very enjoyable analysts. Simmons and ESPN deserve credit for making them key parts of their coverage (although I have still not caved in and gotten Insider again, at least as of yet).
Yeah. The last glimmer of hope for Jazz fans is an 8 game stretch that starts after the killer 5 gamer from above. From March 24th thru April 5th, the Jazz play @DAL, vsPHI, vsPHX, @POR, vsBKN, vsPOR, vsDEN, and vsNOH. 6 of 8 at home, and only 2 of 8 against playoff teams (both at home). If Utah can go 7-1 or maybe 6-2 in that stretch, they might still have a shot (not seeing it, but it's remotely possible).
The other small silver lining is that as bad as the Jazz have played the last few weeks, HOU and GSW aren't exactly playing like world beaters themselves. Considering the Jazz lost 7 of 8 before yesterday, the distance between them and the Rockets/Warriors could've easily been greater.
what's more amazing - that he has that many, or that he's made about 2/3 (23) of them?
2 minutes left in the game.
(edit: now 25/39, 1:50 to go. must be hack a dwight night?)
Howard's still pretty amazing that he can be this good while clearly not being 100%.
charlotte over boston by 26.
on chris wrights: it's not that i liked the g'town one, i didn't like the dayton one.
wall was a 27/7/14 himself this evening.
hack-a-dwight didn't work tonight, huh.
Did you see who's playing? No Parker, no Duncan, no Leonard.
The lineup the Spurs ran out there is massively better than the Wolves lineup.
I wonder how hard the Spurs are going to go after homecourt advantage. It could play a huge role in a potential series against the Thunder and/or Heat.
It's important but not overly so. It's unclear how this is going to play out right now, so I don't think you can do anything about it... but I think there's value in trying to dodge the Lakers right now.
Don't know if the rookie wall is real, but it has seemed like he hit one. Teams have been more physical with him and his shooting form has been inconsistent (esp not setting feet). We knew he needed more bulk, so I hope hat helps address the problem. I remain optimistic about him in a way I wasn't about, say, Wes Johnson.
Also, as Spivey said, no Duncan, Parker, Leonard is probably not much worse than no Love, Pekovic, Kirilenko, Budinger (throw Roy in there for fun).
No boat trips, birdman...
On the other hand Minnesota was with Love, Pekovic, Budinger and Kirilenko, so it was almost fair.
Agree. Although, I remember Dele being better offensively than that in my faulty memory. He had a bit of a post up game, which was unique to the MJ Bulls (at least from the big men).
It's important but not overly so. It's unclear how this is going to play out right now, so I don't think you can do anything about it... but I think there's value in trying to dodge the Lakers right now.
I knew I wasn't the only one who thought that.
Tonight @ Philadelphia
Friday @ Milwaukee
Sun 17 @ Toronto
Mon 18 @ Boston
Wed 20 @ Cleveland
Fri 22 vs Detroit
Sun 24 vs Charlotte
Mon 25 @ Orlando
Wed 27 @ Chicago
Fri 29 @ New Orleans
Sun 31 @ San Antonio
Tue 2 vs New York
Fri 5 @ Charlotte
Sat 6 vs Philadelphia
Tue 9 vs Milwaukee
--
The players and Spoelstra may not care, but I would guess that Riley does.
I see dele as having more low post ability (and polish) but bird as a more instinctive athlete.
Only one game jumps out to me (@SA), but not sure if the Spurs will all be there. I wouldn't bet on them winning them all, but they're going to be favored it all of them...
Edit: Maybe barren isn't the right way to put it. I think there's a lot of opportunity at a lot of places in the draft, for teams who know how to draft well.
Yeah, last year there was quite a bit of depth IMO through like pick 20 or so, I don't see that this year. But Ben McLemore (the presumptive #2 pick if Noel is fine and goes #1) can really play, I think he is going to be a big star in a few years.
Everyone goes tonight ...
Phx @ Hou : if Hou lose this one it's officially time to push the panic button, I doubt it though.
Det @ GWS : see above.
UTA @ OKC : when your 1 game out of the playoff spot, of course you want to play against the best team in the conference at their home court.
LAL @ ATL : Over and under on how many FT the Later shoot at 50 right?
Mem @ LAC : potentially important seeding game.
---
20 in a row for the Heat. Philly put up a fight though.
Houston turning it on tonight, and actually playing some serious D too (granted, it's the Suns.)
Utah : you know they weren't likely to to win this one... but the last thing you need in a close race is a loss of the ages...
Lakers lose.... against a Hawk team that didnt have Smith.... hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Donatas Montejunas, after a couple crappy games again showed quite alot of intrigue today, he even played some good D. Thomas Robinson also played pretty well . though he still can't seem to finish effectively. 5-9 despite the fact that all but 1 attempt were dunk / layouts (and the jumper actually hit! 3-8 in layout / dunks is quite terrible. )
Kings actually playing better recently, they're killing the Bulls today despite of not having Cousins (leg injury?)
Patrick Patterson appear to be a good character fit for them it seems. and play wise, they obviously could use folks who actually shoot jumpers and not just chuck them.
He's even rebounding a bit better.
The Houston guys they traded for is doing really really well this game. I'm a bit shocked that Cole Aldrich can do well against Jokim Noah.
Knicks continue their dismal play , losing to Denver by nearly 20 already
Cousins not playing is probably a positive...
FWIW, the Celtics have a pretty good homecourt record this year. Better than every team in the East except Miami and Indiana.
Which is a huge problem, should the Kings just punt Cousins and build a team around Evans? with the pieces they have it's not hard to imagine them putting together a team that should at least have a good shot at sneaking in the playoffs. assuming they can get some decent pieces for Cousins.
But Cousins certainly give them a higher ceiling potential, but that ceiling is doing more dig a huge hole than not.
Clippers: wow... that would be a big problem as it gives Denver home court...
Jon Barry: I mean, wow, have you ever seen a team run like this?
Mike Breen: Yeah, the Nuggets last week.
Down the stretch:
Clippers:
NY, @Sac/PHI, BKN, @DAL/@NO, @SAN/@HOU, IND, PHO, LAL, MIN, @NO/@MEM, POR/@SAC
8 Home, 8 Away
5 back-to-backs, 2 games with Memphis, San Antonio, OKC
Nuggets:
MEM, @CHI/@OKC, PHI, SAC, @NO, @SAN, BRK, @UTA/DAL, HOU, SAN, @DAL, POR/@MIL, PHOE
9 Home, 7 Away
3 back-to-backs, 4 games with Memphis, San Antonio, OKC
i'm still crossing my fingers for cousins and evans to get traded to washington to reunite with wall and calipari and nerlens. is there anyone who wouldn't want to see that?
Also, I don't want to get too carried away with this, but OKC plays Memphis in Memphis next Wed. They probably don't want to be losing that game, cause they are actually only 2 up on MEM in the loss column right now. It probably won't matter, because for one thing, MEM could very well drop these next 2 @DEN, @UTA on Fri and Sat, but if I was the Thunder, I think I'd be trying to put this thing away sooner rather than later. The only teams hotter than the Grizzlies have been since the deadline is Miami and maybe Denver.
As others have said, stuck between the two hottest teams in the West is not a great place for LAC to be. I'm pretty sure that if either MEM or LAC lets DEN pass them for the 4, they will get beat in the 1st round. I think I'd rather play nearly anybody in round 1 than Denver with home court.
Ehh ... the HC advantage for Denver is greatly lessened in the playoffs. No one's on the second night of a b2b in the playoffs, you know?
Looks like I underestimated Del Negro's ability to screw things up, seriously Grant Hill at PF against the Grizzlies? But more than that Memphis and Denver are fire these days, dumping Rudy Gay looks like genius, save a bunch of money and make the team better at the same time.
With injuries catching up to the Knicks, I feel they're more likely to fall to 4th (1.5 ahead of BKN) than they are to climb back to 2nd (1 behind IND). Bulls are tied with Boston and Atlanta for 5th-7th, so any of those are likely for them (5th is looking less likely by the day though). I would not be surprised to see it end up MIA/IND/BKN/NYK/BOS/ATL/CHI/MIL; in fact, I'll just go with that as my prediction for now.
For the West, I think it's a lot harder to guess. There's a chance none of the 8 teams finish in their current spots. For now, I'll predict OKC/SA/MEM/LAC/DEN/HOU/LAL/GS (I will be surprised if Kobe misses more than 1 game).
I'm starting to think there is a real problem with how Thibs coaches. Last year you could blame it on the lockout. This year the injuries are mounting again and the constant is Thibs. I dunno I've been a big defender of his sub patterns as these are world class athletes and they know how to take care of their bodies. However, it seems he's pushing guys to the limit and they are breaking down.
Rose is pissing me off too. Just get on the damn court dude you aren't going to go from 90% to 100% running 5 on 5 in practice. (we talkin' bout practice Derrick!). If there is no increased risk of injury then get the heck out there. Nobody cares if you can't dunk of your left knee right away.
______ had ______ (either Denver or GS, I think Denver) ranked very high in his preseason(early season?) expectations. He was mocked for thinking they were so good, but their early season mediocrity was more a reflection of their tough schedule (Lots of road games?)
I'm pretty sure the team I'm thinking of is Denver, which is nice to see them doing well (and also nice b/c I hate Dolan and disliked the melo trade). But I can't remember that source that ranked Denver high and don't really follow advanced basketball stats.
So, what, like two games for the indefatigable Mamba?
Meh, the odds of hitting from the best team in the lottery are really small -- 1.8% chance of a top 3 pick. The difference between pick 14 and 16 can't be that relevant. :)
EDIT: [375] I think Hollinger took the most flack because his were more or less what they used for the ESPN the Mag NBA Preview issue.
Might be Hollinger .... Denver
I don't recall how many preseason systems had Golden State even in the playoffs, but certainly can't imagine many that ranked them high.
I may be wrong, but when I looked the future draft detail on realgm, it seemed to me that if LAL's pick is out of the top-14, then Phoenix might get stuck with Miami's first rounder this year, which would be a significant. I have no idea if I'm interpreting it right because this pick they're sending to PHX is like one of 4 possible picks that are contingent on some pick-swap the Lakers worked out with Cleveland.
I think it works like this: If LAL's pick is top-14, then the Cleveland swap is canceled and PHX gets the pick. If it's not a lottery pick, than CLE can swap it for their own pick, SAC's pick, or MIA's pick, which it appears to me they'd swap MIA's pick. Then PHX gets whichever one that CLE swapped to LAL. So the Lakers being in or out of the lottery could cost PHX 15+ spots in the 1st rd. I may be totally off.
I guess he was kind of like that. Now he's the VP of Basketball Operations for the Grizzlies.
Well Hollinger is an actual number cruncher- I've always thought of Neyer as a writer who advocates for a stats-based approach.
Would it really be a huge shocker if 6/7/8 ends up being Hou / GSW / DAL with the way things are going? Dallas is certainly still within distance, and with the epic implosion of Utah and now the potential derailing of the Lakers resurgence, I think it's possible.
Hey now. I prefer the term "unintentional tanking." :-)
Yep. Phoenix could be 14 or could be 30. Huge difference in picks.
Even if you are in the "Kobe is an overrated team-killing punk" camp, there are a few facts that argue very heavily against suggesting this:
1. Nash is 39 years old.
2. Bryant's injury will mean more time for Jodie Meeks, and, unless MDA goes with a three-man backcourt rotation of Meeks/Nash/Blake, or plays Metta some at 2 (he is way too slow) will mean time for one of Duhon, Morris, or Ebanks.
3. Howard is not the same guy physically that he was two years ago.
One thing it may do is create some time the Nash/Howard team that many including me thought should be used as part of a two-star platoon system. Gasol will supposedly play Sunday, when the Lakers get back home.
The Lakers went 5-2 without Bryant last year, but a lot of that was schedule, and as I have pointed out a few times, Bynum's and Gasol's efficiency numbers did not track their increased usage rates while he was out at all; their EFGs went down. We will see what happens with Nash and Howard; maybe they can party like it's 2009. But if Bryant is gone for several games, the Lakers will miss him.
I'm on the fence on Kobe and team, I think he does do that to an extend, but not to the same extend as say.. Carmelo . put the right combo of guys around Kobe and they'll be great. as have been proven multiple times in his career anyway.
Carmelo though... aside from an early spurts this year, is something else, the Knicks might be better without him to be honest. (provided the guy taking up his spot is competent.) I guess he does make the Knicks better than an otherwise generic PF , but almost certainly not to the extend you'd expect from what he is paid and his stats.
Coopland
Martin (yes, Kenyon Martin)
Thomas
Shumpert
Felton
I feel sorry for Raymond Felton. their next two games are @ LAC and @ UTA ... they better hope the Jazz continue to completely forget how to play I guess.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=961
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=961
The link got taken down, but well done! Anyone who can provoke the "but he didn't play the game" line of defense must be doing something right (at least it seems like that's what you got based on the description of the video).
Yes. Another underrated skill of Kobe's is his ability to heal and/or play through pain.
I'm starting to think there is a real problem with how Thibs coaches. Last year you could blame it on the lockout. This year the injuries are mounting again and the constant is Thibs. I dunno I've been a big defender of his sub patterns as these are world class athletes and they know how to take care of their bodies. However, it seems he's pushing guys to the limit and they are breaking down.
I think there's a disconnect between Thibs and the front office. Thibs is coaching as if they're going to win this year; the org isn't treating it the same way. If they are not on the same page (and that's not to say they can't have differing goals), you're going to run into problems like they're facing. Also, there's not much Thibs can do with Mohammed and VladRad and those mistakes are on the front office.
As to the present situation, last year Barnes and Metta played very well when Bryant was out. This year, Barnes is gone and since MDA has decided that Ebanks is unplayable, has been replaced by no one. When Bryant was out in 2010, Shannon Brown took his place, and played OK, and the Lakers actually gained defensively, since Brown is a pretty decent defender with some athletic skills.
This year, they have Meeks, who can shoot some, but is undersized to play the 2 extensively in today's game, is not much of a defender, and has no handle. Given that the Lakers have two old and undersized 1s, this is a real problem. Kobe has played a lot of bad D this year, as I have pointed out, but he is 6'6" and very strong, which counts for something.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/47389
This is a pretty interesting article about Marc Gasol and his impact on defense. This stuff is why they are a top 2 defense.
Is it fair to say that he has a reputation for exaggerating ailments to look tougher? I'm not saying he actually does it (how would anyone know?) but I'm asking whether it is a commonly held belief.
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