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Saturday, March 01, 2014

OT: NBA Monthly Thread - March 2014

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: whether civilization peaked during the reign of Queen Victoria, or the reign of Jimmy Carter.

Sadly, LeBron will have to get used to disappointment.

The District Attorney Posted: March 01, 2014 at 09:03 PM | 789 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   101. The District Attorney Posted: March 05, 2014 at 02:48 PM (#4666797)
Aren't [the Bobcats] top 10 in D this season?
They are a good defense, yes.

[Simmons is] simply not a bright person at all, but when it comes to the NBA, he's able to disguise that well enough by following as passionately as he does.
More true than false, but not really true either. He's not a "follow through on the logical consequences of an argument" guy. He can recognize good points in a discussion (and as mentioned, he certainly can recognize good writers.) But at the same time, he'll probably respond to your good point by saying "you're right, but it's also true that..." and state essentially the opposite of that thing. I would say he's intelligent, yet not analytical. He's a lot more like a traditional "narrative" sportswriter than he probably thinks he is.
   102. Jimmy P Posted: March 05, 2014 at 02:52 PM (#4666804)
He's a lot more like a traditional "narrative" sportswriter than he probably thinks he is.

This. And, just by how much he writes, is on tv, and does podcasts, he talks a lot. When you talk a ton, you're going to say stupid things or contradict yourself. Especially if you're going off the cuff all the time.
   103. andrewberg Posted: March 05, 2014 at 02:54 PM (#4666805)
Don't completely rule the Wolves out of that mix at the bottom of the West. They're clearly trying to win, they just got Martin and Pek back, and their upcoming schedule is NYK, DET, TOR, MIL, @CHA, SAC.
   104. AROM Posted: March 05, 2014 at 04:24 PM (#4666822)
Aren't [the Bobcats] top 10 in D this season?


They are 6th in D rating, after ranking last the previous season. The question I have is how they did this - the main change they made is bringing in Al Jefferson, and he has never been noted as a defender. Is this a case where we just have to give the credit to Steve Clifford?
   105. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 05, 2014 at 04:33 PM (#4666830)

Yeah--Simmons should get ups for bringing Lowe and Goldsberry in. The SI.com ex-blogger guys who moved up (Mahoney and Golliver) aren't bad, either.


And Bill Barnwell for NFL articles, he is amazing. Just wrote a piece ahead of the Sloan Conference (not sure if it was posted here, I missed it if it was) about the dialogue statisticians should be having with the less informed.
Bridging the Analytics Gap
   106. bibigon Posted: March 05, 2014 at 04:53 PM (#4666859)
Barnwell is a long way from being Lowe/Goldberry. Chris Brown is a value added guy at Grantland - Barnwell is not it seems.

On the Drummond/Davis point, it's bizarre to me to ding Davis for "durability" when he's played 120% the minutes Drummond has in their respective careers, and is not significantly behind even this year. Durability is an asset, but it's unclear to me why we should think Drummond is more durable than Davis given their careers to date. Davis has been on the court more, with more opportunity to get injured.
   107. John M. Perkins Posted: March 05, 2014 at 05:05 PM (#4666867)
Best five career WS drafted in the second round 1994-2013.
Big caveat that the more recent the year the least chance to pile up WS. Any year that has passed more previous years than later years have passed it looks good. 2013 is starting off badly.

231.5 1998 Lewis, Mobley, Patterson, Alston, Buckner
178.7 2002 Boozer, Scola, Barnes, Butler, Songaila
176.8 2003 Korver, Williams, Bonner, Pachula, Blake
157.4 2005 Johnson, Ellis, Bass, Gortat, Williams
131.7 1999 Ginobili, MacCulloch, Elson, Booth, Giricek
129.1 2007 Gasol, Landry, Sessions, Davis, McRoberts
127.6 2000 Redd, Najera, House, Cardinal, Voskuhl
117.5 2001 Okur, Simmons, Watson, Collins, Scalabrine
112.8 1997 S.Jackson, Johnson, Williams, Blount, M.Jackson
110.8 1995 Snow, Hoiberg, DeClerq, Reid, Edney
110.2 2006 Millsap, Smith, Gibson, Novak, Powe
110.0 2008 Jordan, Chalmers, Dragic, Pekovic, Mbah a Moute
091.4 1996 Rose, Anderson, McInnis, Norris, Feick
083.6 1994 Lenard, Smith, Funderburke, McIlvaine, Rebraca
074.2 2009 Blair, Meeks, Thornton, Green, Budinger
064.7 2004 Ariza, Duhon, Ivey, Robinson, Sow
046.3 2011 Parsons, Thomas, Singler, Allen, Leuer
029.2 2010 Stephenson, Fields, Evans, Harangody, Pittman
016.4 2012 Green, Middleton, Scott, Crowder, O'Quinn
003.3 2013 Kelly, Wolters, Withey, Mitchell, Crabbe

All team second rounders
370.3 Ginobili, Lewis, Boozer, Redd, Okur
   108. Booey Posted: March 05, 2014 at 05:23 PM (#4666881)
So, along the same structural lines as the other posts, I think it is certainly easy to understand that your team is better off losing but not to enjoy rooting for it to lose, and to therefore in turn question the system that spawns that scenario.


That's exactly where I'm at. It would be beneficial long term for my team to lose every game so I suppose that's what I want, but rooting for that also completely kills my interest in the season and requires me to basically check out. I think I've paid less attention to the NBA this season than any other in the last 25 years. I'd guess I've only watched about a dozen games so far from beginning to end (also an all time low), and 4 of them were ones I attended in person.
   109. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 05, 2014 at 05:25 PM (#4666886)
Yeah--Simmons should get ups for bringing Lowe and Goldsberry in.


For all the crap he gets, its pretty clear he knows how to associate himself with really talented people that make him look better. That's actually a pretty rare skill. And not just Grantland, for the most part, the directors he's invited for "30 for 30" have been excellent, and he usually has pretty good guests on his Podcast.

As for his analysis, I don't know why anyone would take it that seriously. He proposed a ridiculous Kevin Love trade on a recent podcast that I heard Chad Ford guffaw at, but Ford was just like, "Okay, well I'll talk to you next time." I like that he gets so excited about it, and his enthusiasm for the NBA is quite infectious, but he's more fanboy than sober analyst.
   110. rr Posted: March 05, 2014 at 05:40 PM (#4666901)
I'd guess I've only watched about a dozen games so far from beginning to end (also an all time low), and 4 of them were ones I attended in person.


Yep. I usually have watched maybe 50 Lakers game a year; this year, I am at about 15. I don't live in LA anymore, but I am still in SoCal, so I would also go to a couple. Didn't do that this year. I have seen as many Utah, Portland, and Minnesota games on League Pass as Lakers games this season.

Since Utah has several guys that they want to be part of the future, I think winning some games is actually needed in their case, as we discussed when they were 1-14. But in the Lakers' case, with Kobe's Ghost, a collection of role players and/or guys whose contracts are expiring, and with their basically only having this draft pick, there is really no advantage at all to actually winning games, which for me, makes watching them even less enjoyable than this team would be anyway.
   111. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 05, 2014 at 05:43 PM (#4666903)
I would want PHX not to make it and then have their draft pick turn into a CHI-Rose situation because I feel like they're 1 piece away from being really, really good.
Would the Knicks part with Chandler for a 2014 first-round pick? Because over a ramen lunch today I was thinking about a Suns lineup of Bledsoe-Dragic-Melo-Frye-Chandler. I think Phoenix has the cap space for the NY refugees.
   112. Howling John Shade Posted: March 05, 2014 at 05:46 PM (#4666906)
As someone who's watched lots and lots of terrible teams over the last 20 years, the main thing that will keep me interested in a lost season is seeing young players with some modicum of potential playing. The absolute worst thing to watch is a team of mediocre veterans attempting to grind out a few wins. To the extent that the lottery encourages teams to dump the mediocre veterans and play the kids, I think it's not a terrible thing.

If you're a Lakers fan, would you rather be watching Steve Blake play out the string or are you happier seeing Bazemore and Brooks get a shot and hoping one of them develops into something useful?

Of course, hoping young players develop loses its charm after the fifth or sixth year of losing...
   113. kpelton Posted: March 05, 2014 at 06:00 PM (#4666912)
I've argued that in the past. What makes the Lakers unique is that basically none of their younger players has long-term contracts, so even if they pan out they might head elsewhere.
   114. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: March 05, 2014 at 06:10 PM (#4666925)
Is it worse to have no young and promising players, or to have one young and promising player named Michael Carter-Williams and watch him develop bad habits by playing with a bunch of random bozos?
   115. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 05, 2014 at 06:15 PM (#4666928)
[114] What bad habits is he developing? Simmons seemed to harp on this a lot in his column. His point seemed to be that MCW started great and now things are getting touchy in part because he's in a terrible environment. I'd like to think that MCW started great, but he was playing over his head considering he sucked for however many years in college and toss in a side of rookie wall/fatigue. I still like MCW's potential based on what I've seen of him in the pros, and I think his ceiling is higher than it was at draft time, but it's not clear to me why it should be alarming that a guy that struggled all throughout college is also struggling in the NBA.
   116. The District Attorney Posted: March 05, 2014 at 08:38 PM (#4666993)
Don't completely rule the Wolves out of that mix at the bottom of the West. They're clearly trying to win, they just got Martin and Pek back, and their upcoming schedule is NYK, DET, TOR, MIL, @CHA, SAC.
I guess if they finish 8th, Kevin Love is great, and if they miss by a game, he sucks?

Simmons: Addressing tanking can help the NBA become America's most popular sport. Okay.

Lot of talk lately about who the #3 MVP candidate is. The Starters' J.E. Skeets said Paul George; Tas Melas said Blake Griffin. OKC blogger Royce Young said Joakim Noah, and Steve Kerr agreed (or said Noah was the 3rd best player in the league, which might be even more of a compliment.)
   117. steagles Posted: March 05, 2014 at 08:59 PM (#4667002)
spencer hawes tearing it up with cleveland.
evan turner in indiana, not so much.
   118. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: March 05, 2014 at 09:11 PM (#4667006)
I don't follow the NBA much, but as regards MCW, isn't it kind of a red flag if a player can't, you know, shoot?
   119. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: March 06, 2014 at 02:25 AM (#4667076)
Don't completely rule the Wolves out of that mix at the bottom of the West. They're clearly trying to win, they just got Martin and Pek back, and their upcoming schedule is NYK, DET, TOR, MIL, @CHA, SAC.

I think we probably can completely rule them out now.
   120. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 06, 2014 at 07:15 AM (#4667087)
[119] Yeah, I didn't want to be the one to say anything...
   121. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 06, 2014 at 08:33 AM (#4667095)

I don't follow the NBA much, but as regards MCW, isn't it kind of a red flag if a player can't, you know, shoot?


Think Rajon Rondo, but 5" taller. Has his limitations, but he can certainly be a very big asset.
   122. andrewberg Posted: March 06, 2014 at 12:46 PM (#4667167)
I think we probably can completely rule them out now.


Yeah, that game was pretty hideous. To struggle defensively so much against a team that has played as badly as the Knicks is a big indictment.
   123. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: March 06, 2014 at 01:39 PM (#4667199)
It's completely bizarre following a team knowing they are better off losing.

I had hope for the Pistons this year. Even when it started rocky still hoped it would improve and they'd sneak in as an 8 and get "playoff experience." That ended around the All Star break. I haven't watched since.
   124. AROM Posted: March 06, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4667205)
I can't wait for the playoffs to start. The regular season has been mostly irrelevant forever, but this year's contrast between the contenders and the tankers seems more pronounced than usual. Should be a good fight between multiple good teams for the last couple of spots in the West though.
   125. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: March 06, 2014 at 02:39 PM (#4667230)
   126. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: March 06, 2014 at 05:44 PM (#4667396)
Tyson Chandler's assessment of Kevin Love's defense.

I think Melo ends up in Chicago next year. I just see him staying in NYC with them being as bad as they've been this year.
   127. rr Posted: March 06, 2014 at 05:58 PM (#4667404)


link

Joakim Noah wants to win a ring. To help him achieve that goal, he wants Carmelo Anthony on the Chicago Bulls. That's why Noah, Chicago's center, approached Anthony over All-Star Weekend last month about joining the Bulls

   128. JJ1986 Posted: March 06, 2014 at 06:00 PM (#4667406)
Could the Bulls fit Noah, Rose, Melo, Butler and Mirotic? I know they'd have to give up Gibson, but what would they be able to keep?
   129. GregD Posted: March 06, 2014 at 06:07 PM (#4667410)
The article claims the Bulls can offer Carmelo $15 million or--if they can dump Dunleavy--$18 million
   130. JJ1986 Posted: March 06, 2014 at 06:16 PM (#4667413)
Hoopshype says the Bulls have $46.6 million committed to non-Boozer players next year. A salary cap of $61.5m seems reasonable, but that would be ignoring the cap holds for their own pick, a Charlotte pick and a possible Kings pick.
   131. steagles Posted: March 06, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4667449)
royce white signed to 10-day contract.
royce white immediately sent to Dleague.
   132. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 06, 2014 at 07:30 PM (#4667465)
Joakim Noah wants to win a ring. To help him achieve that goal, he wants Carmelo Anthony on the Chicago Bulls. That's why Noah, Chicago's center, approached Anthony over All-Star Weekend last month about joining the Bulls
Does tampering apply in cases like this?
   133. Fourth True Outcome Posted: March 06, 2014 at 08:25 PM (#4667486)
IIRC from The Decision, technically it is tampering, but not in a way the league seems interested in enforcing. I'm not sure what line it would make sense to draw for player/player contact, or how it would possibly be enforced.
   134. rr Posted: March 06, 2014 at 08:34 PM (#4667491)
From the Coon CBA FAQ:

108. What is tampering?
Tampering is when a player or team directly or indirectly entices, induces or persuades anybody (player, general manager, etc.) who is under contract with another team in order to negotiate for their services. The NBA may impose suspensions and/or fines up to $50,000 if tampering is discovered, however the league's practice has been to wait until a team lodges a complaint before investigating (but that's not to say they don't continue to monitor the league and won't take action independently if they discover that tampering has occurred). Here are some examples:

•The Miami Heat were discovered to have tampered with Pat Riley in 1995 by negotiating with Riley while he was the head coach of the New York Knicks. The Heat "settled," and avoided league-imposed penalties, by compensating the Knicks with $1 million and their first round draft pick in 1996.
•After Will Perdue left San Antonio in the 1999 offseason to sign with Chicago, he commented to the press about the possibility of the Bulls signing Tim Duncan and/or Grant Hill in 2000. The league considered this to be tampering, and issued Perdue a warning.
You may have noticed that when general managers and other team personnel talk to the press, they are careful to avoid talking about specific players who play for other teams. They do this in order to avoid tampering. The only allowed response when talking about players under contract with other teams is to decline comment.


http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q108
   135. rr Posted: March 06, 2014 at 08:36 PM (#4667492)
Tampering is when a player or team directly
   136. rr Posted: March 06, 2014 at 08:36 PM (#4667493)
test
   137. rr Posted: March 06, 2014 at 08:37 PM (#4667494)
Tried to emphasize italicized line which appears in 136; had Edit issues. Put in test to make sure italics are off. Sorry.
   138. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 06, 2014 at 10:38 PM (#4667538)
It comes from Chris Broussard, so I wouldn't put too much faith in its accuracy.

Can we talk about Noah's passing? He's just unreal now. He's been unbelievable since Deng was traded. He's totally going to get narrative low ballot MVP votes this year, regardless of whether he deserves it (he doesn't, but as long as no one puts him ahead of Durant or LBJ it's harmless).
   139. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 06, 2014 at 11:52 PM (#4667555)
Phoenix is getting Good Gerald Green tonight. Helps explain why the Suns are only down 7 late in the 3rd.
   140. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: March 06, 2014 at 11:58 PM (#4667557)
Seriously, anybody who isn't watching that game needs to be. Green with 25 in the third quarter, as the Suns close on a 21-2 run to lead 101-98.
   141. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: March 06, 2014 at 11:58 PM (#4667558)
No, this is Great Gerald Green. A 25-point third quarter; 36 total. Suns up 3 going into the 4Q.
   142. Spivey Posted: March 07, 2014 at 12:15 AM (#4667559)
Popovich is so good.
   143. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 07, 2014 at 12:37 AM (#4667568)
In his last 5 games Russell Westbrook is averaging 24/9/5 on 58/52/96 splits. In 27 minutes a game. And, oh yeah, he's coming off 3 knee surgeries in the last 9 months.
   144. King Mekong Posted: March 07, 2014 at 12:38 AM (#4667569)
I was impressed with Austin Daye's garbage time. He was 2/2 on contested 3's and had a good assist. +8 in 2 minutes.
   145. Spivey Posted: March 07, 2014 at 12:49 AM (#4667579)
I think Jabari Parker would be great on Utah. I'm rooting for that.

Also, it's really sad for televised NBA when the Lakers and Knicks are bad. Usually one half of the double header is going to feature a bad team, and sometimes both.
   146. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 07, 2014 at 12:52 AM (#4667581)
It would be nice if the NBA had a flex schedule for seasons like this where certain teams that are on the national schedule are just awful.
   147. GregD Posted: March 07, 2014 at 01:00 AM (#4667583)
It would be nice if the NBA had a flex schedule for seasons like this where certain teams that are on the national schedule are just awful.
Couldn't the NBA have a flexible policy of simply disbanding teams for the final weeks of the season? We could call it the Kevorkian plan.
   148. steagles Posted: March 07, 2014 at 01:07 AM (#4667586)
Couldn't the NBA have a flexible policy of simply disbanding teams for the final weeks of the season? We could call it the Kevorkian plan.
that would be awesome. it could be like slapshot, or the carribean winter league, where the remaining teams in the league just become amalgamated all-star teams. or you could make it into consolation-type format, where you put 4 "all-star" teams in a bracket, and then as teams are eliminated from the playoffs, you add their best players to new teams in the consolation bracket.
   149. rr Posted: March 07, 2014 at 01:21 AM (#4667591)
The Lakers have been pulled from the national TV schedule twice already; my guess is that they will be again after this. I sure as hell hope so.
   150. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: March 07, 2014 at 01:43 AM (#4667594)
In that Suns/Thunder fourth quarter, Brooks had both Fisher and Butler on the floor, including the final two minutes. That seems inexplicable to me.
   151. rr Posted: March 07, 2014 at 02:11 AM (#4667599)
Don't know if the Noah story is accurate, but it certainly seems plausible to me. Anthony as noted would be an excellent addition for Chicago. Noah has a sprained thumb, apparently--probably hurt it texting Anthony. ;-
   152. rr Posted: March 07, 2014 at 04:25 AM (#4667608)
James partly blamed the jersey for his off shooting night in the Miami Heat's 111-87 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday. James was 6-of-18 shooting in the game, his second-worst shooting night of the season.

"I'm not making excuses, but I'm not a big fans of the jerseys," said James, who had 19 points. "Every time I shoot it feels like it's just pulling right up underneath my arm. I already don't have much room for error on my jump shot. It's definitely not a good thing."

He was quick to point out that it bothered him on Christmas Day, when he wore a short-sleeved jersey and shot 0-of-4 from 3-point range in a win over the Los Angeles Lakers, and during the All-Star Game last month, when he was 0-of-7 on 3-pointers in a sleeved jersey.


link
   153. AROM Posted: March 07, 2014 at 11:10 AM (#4667701)
Glad I didn't watch any of Lakers-Clippers. Just saw some of the highlights. As a 43 year old 6'3 player, I just realized I would be no worse than Pau Gasol at defending Jordan and Griffin.

Well, not really, I might actually get back on D and foul them, resulting in a 3 point play, where wise old Pau limits them to 2 points by not running back on the breaks.
   154. Booey Posted: March 07, 2014 at 12:28 PM (#4667781)
#152 - See! The sleeved jerseys are of the devil! Not only do they look stupid, but they throw players off their games too!

Take note, Warriors. Or don't, cuz I want you to lose.
   155. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 07, 2014 at 01:45 PM (#4667864)
In his last 5 games Russell Westbrook is averaging 24/9/5 on 58/52/96 splits. In 27 minutes a game. And, oh yeah, he's coming off 3 knee surgeries in the last 9 months.


My favorite players have always been PFs with some handle (Derrick McKey, Anthony Mason, Chris Webber, Shawn Marion), but RW has become my favorite player in the league.
   156. Jimmy P Posted: March 07, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4667865)
A lot of talk about the Bulls lately has to do with them immediately using the amnesty on Boozer. Are we sure that's going to happen? Jerry's pretty cheap. He doesn't like to pay people to not work, he barely likes to pay people in general. Once that happens, are we sure he'd pay the tax? The Bulls have only paid it once, and gave away Deng this year so they wouldn't have to pay it again. All this Carmelo talk has been making me think that lately.
   157. AROM Posted: March 07, 2014 at 02:48 PM (#4667895)
It's tough to predict how the Bulls + Carmelo would look. If Rose was healthy, there is precedent for Carmelo coexisting with a high scoring guard - he did play with Iverson after all and they both got plenty of shots. But I can't see Thibodeaux playing at the high pace needed to maintain their scoring needs.
   158. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 07, 2014 at 02:54 PM (#4667899)
A lot of talk about the Bulls lately has to do with them immediately using the amnesty on Boozer. Are we sure that's going to happen? Jerry's pretty cheap. He doesn't like to pay people to not work, he barely likes to pay people in general. Once that happens, are we sure he'd pay the tax? The Bulls have only paid it once, and gave away Deng this year so they wouldn't have to pay it again. All this Carmelo talk has been making me think that lately.

No, it's not a given. And in fact, they've already been planting the seeds that they won't amnesty him. However, by trading Deng this year, the Bulls saved approx $20mil (Deng's salary + getting out of tax + getting paid from tax fund), so if you wanted you can take quotes they've given before to mean that they could consider that saved money as going towards getting rid of Boozer.

If the Bulls amnestied Boozer next year and miraculously got Melo (it's not very likely, and it would take Melo taking a HUGE cut to realistically work), they wouldn't be in the tax next year almost regardless of what they did. So the tax question is a couple years away again (and they did pay last year, even after Rose was hurt; so there's a smidge of evidence they'd pay it for that type of team).

But I can't see Thibodeaux playing at the high pace needed to maintain their scoring needs.

No 'x'. Also, asserting facts not in evidence. I don't think Thibs has a set offensive style that he wouldn't bend to fit in offensive players; the real question is about fitting in Melo's defense (then again, he's put up with Boozer for years now and his defensive effort is far, far below that of Melo at his worst).

   159. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 07, 2014 at 03:13 PM (#4667901)
(then again, he's put up with Boozer for years now and his defensive effort is far, far below that of Melo at his worst).


How does Boozer rate higher than Melo in WS/48 on BBRef? Can someone explain how OWS and DWS are calculated? Between the two their OWS APPEAR to be where I would think, but Boozer somehow rates as significantly better on D, even as of the last few years.
   160. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: March 07, 2014 at 03:14 PM (#4667902)
I also feel weird any time people make assertions about what a player would or would not be willing to do. Age, team context, and winning % are all HUGE variables here, and it's not like an individual career is anything approaching the sample size needed to disentangle them with any confidence for an individual. Factor in how very mediated the public presentations of players are (by print and TV; by social media; by franchises, coaches and other players, all with their own agendas; by narrative structures), and it becomes fairly hopeless to tell how much confidence to put in these sorts of caricatures. My own intuition is that young Melo would have taken a stronger team culture and more winning to convince him to adjust his game than many other stars, though who knows by what margin. Meanwhile, I suspect that his Knicks turn has drastically emphasized the relative importance of winning games over other more or less valid concerns, especially vis his legacy.

In any case, what Melo ultimately does is totally a function of what contracts other people offer him this offseason.
   161. AROM Posted: March 07, 2014 at 03:24 PM (#4667911)
How does Boozer rate higher than Melo in WS/48 on BBRef? Can someone explain how OWS and DWS are calculated?


It's based on boxscore stats, not play by play, so defensive rebounds, blocks, and steals. Boozer plays for a good defensive team and collects lots of defensive rebounds, so he gets win shares.

As for reality, Bulls do get more defensive rebounds when Boozer is on the floor (77-73%) but allow opponents a much higher eFG% - .487 to .457.

I'm not asserting anything as fact. Sure, Carmelo could come to the Bulls and fit in as the ultimate team player. Anything's possible. But I don't like the odds considering his reaction to Jeremy Lin's streak, during which the Knicks were winning.
   162. AROM Posted: March 07, 2014 at 03:26 PM (#4667915)
In any case, what Melo ultimately does is totally a function of what contracts other people offer him this offseason.


Regardless of any concern about how he fits in with a team, I don't have any doubt that he will receive the maximum offer from both the Knicks and just about any other team that can offer it.
   163. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 07, 2014 at 04:27 PM (#4667975)
Anything's possible. But I don't like the odds considering his reaction to Jeremy Lin's streak, during which the Knicks were winning


I've seen this mentioned a few times, what did Carmelo do?
   164. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 07, 2014 at 04:37 PM (#4667983)
[163] Too lazy to track down the video, but he would purposefully break plays. For example, if the action called for Melo to serve as a spot up shooter behind the 3 point line at the elbow extended while Lin ran the PnR Melo would take small steps and inch in until the spacing for the play was compromised, often forcing Lin to just give the ball to Melo.
   165. AROM Posted: March 07, 2014 at 04:49 PM (#4667996)
#163, I've forgotten the details. Here's the thread from 2 years ago:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/ot_nba_monthly_thread_march_2012/P700

Nothing really there before #777 by Sugarbear. I'll keep reading until I get to the date of the D'Antoni firing.
   166. GregD Posted: March 07, 2014 at 05:01 PM (#4668007)
yes I remember videos going around of Lin being perplexed by Carmelo going out of position and shutting down the plays.

   167. jmurph Posted: March 07, 2014 at 05:27 PM (#4668041)
Remember a few months ago when I said I didn't think Dwight Howard was a Hall of Famer and you guys all pounced? I was reminded of that listening to Simmons and Lowe on the BS Report when Lowe mentioned Howard's current PER. So, 3 things:

1. For the record, I'm not arguing the HOF question. You guys all made salient points and convinced me he's going in. Truly, I'm not just saying that.
2. PER is not remotely the end of the conversation. But:
3. I think this is roughly what I was trying to get at when I said something along the lines of "I don't think he'll be remembered as a great of the era." Here are his PER rankings, starting this year and going backward:
- 15
- (not in top 20)
- 6
- 2
- 6
- 4
- 11
- (first two years not in top 20)

If, and this isn't unreasonable, he's finished as a top 10 guy, that just seems like a remarkably short peak to me. Do I just (admittedly) not have a great context for other great big men?

EDIT: Aaaaaaand I'm an idiot because PER really undercounts defense. I'll show myself out.
2nd EDIT: WS actually treats him similarly, slightly worse in some years, slightly better in a couple.
   168. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 07, 2014 at 05:43 PM (#4668059)
It would mean he's not inner circle, sure. Also, it would make worse comparisons between he and Shaq (top 10 in PER fourteen times, including five straight years at #1, an underrated feat).
However, that's still not so bad. McHale and Parish were top ten three times each, as was Webber (not yet HOF, but a worse defender). Willis Reed was four times (in a much smaller league, though). Cowens never did it, nor Dikembe (though he was a stellar defender, better than a really good Dwight). Ewing did it six times.
He'd still be considered a great - his biggest impediments would be that people found him annoying, the bad free throw shooting, not winning a title (if he doesn't).
   169. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 07, 2014 at 05:48 PM (#4668064)
[167] As your edit indicates, the big thing is the defense. He was DPOY 3 years in a row. That plus being capable of 20 PPG is going to guarantee a spot in the HOF. Not to mention however many AS appearances he has/will have.

He fits right in with this group.
   170. andrewberg Posted: March 07, 2014 at 06:25 PM (#4668085)

He fits right in with this group.


Nope, didn't go to Georgetown. I have always said Howard reminds me most of Ewing.
   171. kpelton Posted: March 07, 2014 at 07:37 PM (#4668115)
The other thing with Howard is he should compile some pretty impressive career stats if he stays healthy by virtue of being a regular since age 19.

I already have him slightly ahead of Mutombo in WARP, and I'm a big supporter of Dikembe's HOF candidacy. So I think he could retire tomorrow and get in after people forgot their annoyance with him.
   172. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: March 07, 2014 at 07:54 PM (#4668119)
Melo not only broke plays, he acted like he had no interest in playing with Lin or fitting in with the team that went on a great run without him. The press would ask him about how he'd blend in with Linsanity and he chafed at the question, and ####### and moaned and pouted and otherwise pulled his "Why would *I* have to blend in?" BS.

A bunch of people -- press, fans -- worried that he'd pull exactly what he pulled, thus the questions. Hell, I probably noted my worries on these very threads.

Then he got D'Antoni fired and called the offer sheet to Lin "ridiculous" and almost certainly told the front office not to match it.

EDIT:
Nothing really there before #777 by Sugarbear. I'll keep reading until I get to the date of the D'Antoni firing.

Ah, memory lane. If permitted the luxury of self-reference, I'd say that I'm bursting with pride over 778. Forgot all about it.

   173. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: March 07, 2014 at 08:03 PM (#4668124)
But Phil Jackson's on the way to save the day!!!!
   174. Spivey Posted: March 07, 2014 at 09:59 PM (#4668149)
Is Mutombo really a better defender than Dwight? IMO Mutombo was never a better defender than Robinson or Olajuwon. Now, it's difficult because I think Mutombo played in an era of great centers (and great defensive centers). But Dwight seems like a guy who would be a better on ball defender - Mutombo was a great help defender but was he truly great having to deal with a great offensive player going one on one with him? That's an honest question, I am not sure.
   175. Spivey Posted: March 07, 2014 at 10:03 PM (#4668151)
When Paul got hurt Howard was considered the clear #2 player in the NBA a few years back. I know because we all discussed it. How many players were ever considered the #2 player in the NBA and did not make the HOF? I wouldn't be surprised if the answer was 0.
   176. Spivey Posted: March 07, 2014 at 10:04 PM (#4668152)
I'm happy to see Augustin doing well.
   177. Spivey Posted: March 07, 2014 at 10:21 PM (#4668158)
I think the West is probably the deepest it's been in the post-Jordan era IMO.

GSW is in 6th place and is 2 losses ahead of the #9 Memphis Grizzlies. They have an incredible starting line up. Their SRS is #8 in the league. Portland "feels" overrated, but again you look at their lineup of Lillard/Mathews/Batum/Aldrige/Lopez and it's pretty damn good. It makes me wonder why they sucked so much last year.
   178. PJ Martinez Posted: March 07, 2014 at 10:50 PM (#4668164)
Rondo is 3-6 from three tonight, bringing his percentage on the season just above 36% on 55 attempts. That's more attempts, in 16 games, than he's taken in any *season* save one. And he's only broken 30% over a season once. It's possible he's actually made a breakthrough on his 3-point shooting.

Edit: He's already made more threes this year than in any previous season.
   179. Spivey Posted: March 07, 2014 at 11:19 PM (#4668169)
IMO if Rondo isn't being a great defensive player, he's nothing special. I've always struggled to really buy into the offensive side of his game. His FG% has cratered this year, and I'm willing to cut him slack because of the injury. But I think I could easily find 10-15 PGs I'd rather have than him going forward.
   180. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 08, 2014 at 01:27 AM (#4668184)
But I think I could easily find 10-15 PGs I'd rather have than him going forward.

Same.

I know we say this all the time, but the West is incredible. The way HOU and LAC have been playing lately...DAL is the only team in the Top 9 that I would be completely shocked if they advanced to the Finals.
   181. Manny Coon Posted: March 08, 2014 at 01:42 AM (#4668186)
I think a lot of people have already forgotten how legitimately dominant Howard was in Orlando, even if it wasn't that long ago. He's had a lot drama since then and he's not quite as good as he was, but his career could end tomorrow and I think he would make the HoF no problem.
   182. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 08, 2014 at 01:48 AM (#4668189)
[181] I think everyone...or at least everyone on here...thinks that except jmurph.
   183. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 08, 2014 at 03:30 PM (#4668314)
Huge game from Wiggins. Took the loss, but had the game I assume scouts/evaluators who question his aggressiveness want to see from him.
   184. yo la tengo Posted: March 08, 2014 at 04:58 PM (#4668337)
Big first half from the Gators and nice to withstand the UK run. When Kentucky has a 15-0 run and still loses by 19 that's a sign that a number of things went right for the Gators
   185. GregD Posted: March 08, 2014 at 06:14 PM (#4668375)
Florida is really good. Kentucky, the last month, has not been good at all.
   186. GregD Posted: March 08, 2014 at 09:33 PM (#4668446)
Phil leaning towardaccepting Knicks offer? I'll believe it when I see it.
   187. rr Posted: March 08, 2014 at 09:49 PM (#4668453)
The source on the Phil thing is Stephen A...but

I am actually a little skeptical about how Phil would do in a personnel role, in that I wonder how much he would engage with advanced stats and I think he might lean too heavily on older players.

And, of course...Dolan.

That said, I do think that Phil would see running the Knicks as the capstone to his career--he would have been a player, coach or exec in the three biggest markets in sports, and he would be finishing his NBA career where he started it. And it would give him a chance to do something Pat Riley could not do--win a title as an Exec in the Big Apple.
   188. GregD Posted: March 08, 2014 at 10:15 PM (#4668456)
Yeah there has been some preemptive strikes in the DN today of rival execs saying that Jackson couldn't name 2/3 of the players in the league and the like.

I assume he would only do it if he installed one of his guys as head coach, though I don't know if Shaw would leave Denver. Having a non-Phil-tree coach under him would seem like an invitation for constant stories about when Phil will step in and take control of the team.
   189. steagles Posted: March 08, 2014 at 11:21 PM (#4668467)
i am beginning to think the sixers will never win another game.
   190. kpelton Posted: March 09, 2014 at 01:47 AM (#4668499)
I assume he would only do it if he installed one of his guys as head coach, though I don't know if Shaw would leave Denver.

Rambis!
   191. Booey Posted: March 09, 2014 at 02:56 AM (#4668507)
i am beginning to think the sixers will never win another game.


After 20+ point beatdowns at the hands of the Cavs, Bucks, and Knicks on this roadtrip, I was starting to think the same about the Jazz. I guess SOMEONE had to win tonight...
   192. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: March 09, 2014 at 11:17 AM (#4668549)
The Time Has Come For Phony Sports Blowhards To Speculate: Could Alabama Beat The Sixers? Could The Alabama Basketball Team, Which Is Currently 13-18, Beat The Sixers? Yes
   193. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: March 09, 2014 at 03:33 PM (#4668675)
It's a shame to see championship-quality defense and effort being undermined by the lack of even a single scorer. This team could absolutely Sixer its way out of this dreadful conference.
   194. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 09, 2014 at 03:36 PM (#4668677)
This year's MIA-CHI ECF is gonna be something else.
   195. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 09, 2014 at 05:43 PM (#4668736)
Interesting article on why the Thunder's defense may not be as good as it appears on paper.
   196. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 09, 2014 at 05:59 PM (#4668746)
This year's MIA-CHI ECF is gonna be something else.

Nah. 5 games, with Bulls winning the first one and only keeping one other game close.

And it'll be in the 2nd round as the 2/3 matchup.
   197. Kurt Posted: March 09, 2014 at 06:20 PM (#4668751)
I thought the eastern division champs were guaranteed the 3 seed?
   198. GregD Posted: March 09, 2014 at 06:37 PM (#4668757)
Jodie Meeks!
   199. JJ1986 Posted: March 09, 2014 at 06:42 PM (#4668763)
I thought the eastern division champs were guaranteed the 3 seed?


They're guaranteed a top 4 seed, which is effectively a top-5 because it doesn't come with homefield.
   200. Publius Publicola Posted: March 09, 2014 at 07:56 PM (#4668788)
Nah. 5 games, with Bulls winning the first one and only keeping one other game close.


I think that's a little pessimistic. Sure the Heat have Lebron. But Wade is no longer a significant factor. He might actually be a liability at this point, as he thinks he can still do things he no longer can. I think it could be interesting.
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