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HA!
Hey now. Let's leave players sexual preference out of this...
The Spurs over the last two seasons have taken OKC behind the wood shed. The Thunder have to be hoping that the Spurs run into the Grizzlies at some point. (Although, this season, the Spurs are 3-0 against Memphis)
Those three teams are interesting because they're all pretty even, but the individual matchups are very skewed. Memphis kills the Spurs, the Spurs kill the Thunder, and the Thunder have beaten the Grizzlies.
I'm still not 100% sold on the Thunder as the definitive favorite. They have some glaring weaknesses that may be exposed over a 7 game series against good teams.
But that's the way a lot of college coach firings are. Most of the time the players are not happy about it. Which is to be expected, the coach is probably the primary reason they chose a school.
Can you expand on this? In my opinion, the whole issue for them is whether Durant is mature and good enough to carry them. They have solid enough "everything else" that if Durant plays to the level of player people think he is, then they should be very successful. If he does not, then I'll be surprised if they make it out of the West.
He's so an egomaniac that he would never tell them NOT to do that, to show class and not upstage the banquet.
Not Jimmy, but the big issue for me is that their coach is horrible.
Not who you're talking to but, POOMA, I still wonder whether they have enough 3 point shooting to keep defenses honest and whether Durant will be as successful against more physical postseason defenses where the refs aren't calling the touch fouls he usually gets. Then the late game creativity/playcalling issue. IIRC, they've gotten better at it, but I still have a few Durant 30+ ft 3 pointers in my head.
They are. But as I said, I think their overall depth will be less of an advantage in the post-season and it will come down to how Ginobili and to a lesser extent, Splitter, do. The Spurs won 61 games last year, remember. People have used the old "rock/paper/scissors" line to describe the West the last couple of years. It is a little less true this time, but it is still accurate to some extent.
I think people are selling OKC a little short. I see them as favorites in spite of their regular-season matchup issues with the Spurs. They have star power, shooting, size, and speed, and they have been together for awhile now. I see their biggest problem as the same one they had last year: lack of a low-post scorer, which limits late-game options (that is partly on Brooks as well).
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I still wonder whether they have enough 3 point shooting to keep defenses honest and whether Durant will be as successful against more physical postseason defenses where the refs aren't calling the touch fouls he usually gets. Then the late game creativity/playcalling issue. IIRC, they've gotten better at it, but I still have a few Durant 30+ ft 3 pointers in my head.
With [509], I'm not convinced that Scott Brooks is a good coach. I've never been impressed with his plays off timeouts and end games.
I think that their 3 point shooting is very weak, especially now since they've been giving Fisher more minutes at the expense of Cook. I also think that they could have some horrible crunch time lineups. Harden-Durant-Westbrook-Perk-Ibaka/Thabo sounds good, but you're looking at 3 on 5 when you're on offense. I believe it was Zach Lowe who's been pointing out that Westbrook just isn't that good at defense (I heard it on Rusillo's podcast). Westbrook gets steals, but he's not good at defending someone like Parker.
Not so sure on that this year. Lots of turnovers, and he can't shoot outside of the charge circle.
You could argue he's been awful since they traded for him
No need to argue, just say it. He's been awful since they traded for him.
If he were projected to be a lottery pick this year, I'm not sure I can echo "Good for Crean for keeping him around." But I hate the NCAA (but love college basketball.)
As much as I cringed at some of Westbrook's shots in the playoffs last year...if his other All-NBA running mate can't get it going, that job kind of falls on him. If the Thunder don't make the Finals, Brooks's seat would be rather uncomfortable, I'd think.
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I thought Cody is supposed to be the better prospect than Tyler. But I can't confirm that now, because most sites aren't including Cody now that he's going back to school.
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Sure sounds like Rose is out again tonight:
The fact that they're asking him if he thinks he'll play again this regular season is still very unsettling.
IIRC, Cody was ranked 5-10 on most lists so he is the better prospect. I do remember seeing some concerns about his wingspan though.
Chad Ford projected Cody to be the 6th overall pick in his last mock draft.
Dear Kelvin Sampson,
Thanks for everything!
Love,
The Xavier Musketeers
Agreed.
good for Crean for keeping them around and taking another step toward getting that program back near the top.
The Big Ten looks so much better when that program is in the ####### basement.
For me, he works for shitty university.
*Maybe it wasn't a press conference, it might have just been a statement. Either way, he did leverage it into a raise at Marquette.
Plus he looks like Dwight Shrute.
We might be in trouble with this one next season.
It seems to me that there's some symmetry to running for office against Vladimir Putin, then trying to outspend Mark Cuban for a basketball player. His next project should be trying to get in a bidding war with facebook for a low value social networking startup.
Or to get involved in a land war in Asia.
Or go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line!
And he has a fake tan.
Boston deserves credit for getting hot like this when everyone had written them off--but I am still pretty sure a playoff series between BOS and MIA would only look like tonight or the last meeting 1 or 2 times.
Oh, I don't know that I think the Celtics could take the Heat any significant percentage of the time, but based on the games they've had this season, the Celtics (admittedly potentially quite flukey) recent stretch, I think there could be some really good games.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/jalen-rose-calls-skip-bayless-air-trumped-high-214530179.html
Would be curious to see the other stats (but not curious enough to do the research).
As I understand it, it's Iman Shumpert way ahead of the pack, then everyone else.
Has to be Chandler, right? LeBron isn't winning any more awards until he wins a championship. He may not win the MVP this year. You wanna know when you become the next MJ ...
re: OKC:
They're very dependent on getting to the foul line. Durant in particular, gets a lot of touch fouls. If they play teams particularly good at not fouling (the Spurs, for instance, or even the Lakers or the Suns), that might hurt them.
I'd probably vote for Iguodala. He's elite by both stats and reputation, and his team is still at the top of the league defensively. Iggy leads the NBA in opponent PER (8.8), and he's also 1st in on-court D Rtg among players with 1500+ minutes.
I don't really understand the Tony Allen love. Even if he is the best wing defender on a per-possession basis, he just doesn't play enough to compete with the top guys in terms of value.
Also, the Celtics and Bulls rely on a great scheme as much as individual defense, but I think that Garnett and Deng deserve to at least make the Second Team. They're the clear leaders of elite team defenses, and they're the players most responsible for the effective execution of that scheme on the court.
Because he's a douche?
Or the Bulls...
I'd probably vote for Iguodala. He's elite by both stats and reputation, and his team is still at the top of the league defensively.
Someone yesterday (maybe Zach Lowe) made the argument for KG winning based on the fact that Boston passed Philly in the defensive rankings.
What's the reason that Dwight Howard shouldn't win? I'd like to see a compelling reason why the guy who has been the best defender 3 or 4 years in a row no longer is. Especially when he's first in defensive Win Shares, has roughly the same Opponents PER as Chandler, and he's the best help defender in basketball.
There's a difference between "shouldn't" and "won't". Howard has no chance of winning, because of the voters and all the shenanigans. As to shouldn't, Orlando has fallen to 11th in DRtg this season after being 3rd last year, 3rd the year before, and 1st the year before that. That at least supports the narrative or claims that Dwight isn't the same defender this year (be it lack of effort, distractions, whatever) because most of the team is the same as last year. And I think Chandler has a compelling case as being better this year anyway, as the individual (not perfect) defensive stats are close and the team defensive stats/impact are pretty impressive and favor Tyson quite a bit.
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It was nice of the Bulls defense to show up last night. It was also nice to see that version of Rip, even if it only lasted for one quarter. If he can be that type of player with any sort of consistency (and Rose can stay healthy, obviously), I'll feel much more confident that the Bulls can actually beat Miami/OKC. And how about that defense by Korver in the 4th?
Bulls play the Heat tomorrow in Chicago and again next week in Miami. They probably need a split to keep HCA, which does matter more to the Bulls than Heat. I almost think Rose should rest again tomorrow - it's going to be a tough game and while I want him to play as much as possible I (perhaps foolishly) think he's more likely to retweak something against Miami than say Detroit on Sunday. Sounds like it if was up to Rose, he would have played last night. That makes me think he will play tomorrow. While I'm talking about the playoffs, I'd like to state that I'd prefer the Bulls see the Bucks in the first round, but would still rather face the Knicks than the Sixers.
I actually agree from what I've seen, I'm just deferring to the guy I have seen more and whose stats are drawn from a bigger sample. If Bradley plays full time next year and keeps up what he has done, I'd put him in the backcourt too.
Chandler and KG have both been wonderful. In fact, I'd probably bet that Chandler does win based on the reasons NJ and Moses have provided in his favor and against Dwight. Still, dragging a bunch of non-defenders to a respectable defensive performance by playing one one five gets Chandler to Dwight's level, not beyond it.
Because he's not trying. Which shows how good he is and can be. Even when he's half assing it, he's still one of the best defenders in the game.
"Non-defenders" is a charitable description of the non Chandler, Shumpert, Jeffries Knicks. "Respectable defensive performance" is also an understatement. /Chandler Stumping
EDIT: Heh, Hollinger tackled the subject in his column today and came down in favor of Chandler.
I also don't think Howard is drawing dead here. Drama seems to be a huge disqualifier for MVP but I don't see people caring much when discussing dPOY or all-NBA.
I think Ibaka has a chance.
That is literally the first time I've seen anyone mention his name - online, during a game, etc - for DPOY. So that would make me think that, no, he wouldn't have a chance. Then again, he is first in blocks per game by a huge margin. So I can picture someone scanning the stats at the end of the year, seeing that, and voting for him. Not enough people will do that for him to win though, especially if Durant is going to win the MVP (and I think he will) and since no one sees the Thunder as a top defensive team.
As for DPOY, I'd have to think it's Chandler's to lose.
Up until a couple of late Pierce misses, every single Celtic who attempted a FG shot 50% or better last night. That's a pretty impressive performance. Probably not sustainable, but pretty impressive anyway.
Not sure who will win. If I had a vote, first four guys I'd research are Howard, Chandler, James, and Iguodala.
To play the guy with the bucket of cold water for a minute here, didn't the C's own the Heat in last year's regular soon, too? I do see how the current version of the C's with KG at the 5 might match up better with the Heat, but I don't think it's going to turn out much better than last year. Not only is the C's shooting from last night unsustainable, so is their current defense (both Lowe and Hollinger wrote about that yesterday).
Well, the Bulls without Rose did just fine against the hot-streak C's last week, so I could see why you'd feel that today.
What are the odds for the Oilers winning 3 years in a row?
Pretty freaking low. They were the worst team the previous two years, and the second worst this year.
It's been a while since I took a probability class, so I can't do it off hand.
Well, that's not really true if you have a 50% chance of getting the first pick.
Is my memory off or was there a time when all the teams in the lottery could change positions based on the ping pong balls instead of just the top 3? If so, I liked that a lot better. I'm not a fan of the current format.
Bradley was his 1st team PG (no Rondo, no Lowry on the three teams), Allen 2nd team SG (behind Iggy), Ibaka 3rd team center (behind Tyson and Howard).
Hence the ~ in front of the 50%.
Does anyone like the randomness of the NBA Lottery? Except the winners, I guess. I know you want to discourage tanking, but the Bobcraps are clearly the most awful team in the NBA (without even trying), its a travesty for them to not get the #1 pick, if you want the #1 pick to go to the worst team.
Then you truly have a race to the bottom. Now, this season, Charlotte is already well below New Orleans, but last year there was a 2 game difference. Before the lottery, teams would be actively trying to not win. Even more than tanking. And, let's say there's a guy that's as good as Lebron, teams are going to try and start losing halfway through the season.
Perhaps I need to adjust my expectations for Rose's health this season, but I don't necessarily think it's true he won't be 100% healthy. The ankle sprain can happen to anyone, and while it's a kick in the nuts on top of the other stuff, if the other stuff isn't bothering him (and they're saying it's not; then again, it's not like they'd say otherwise) then it's just a possible blimp. It doesn't seem nearly as bad as the ankle problem he had in last year's playoffs; he seemed over that halfway through the ATL series. Looking at it glass half full, he's getting a lot of rest this season and if healthy he will be quite fresh relative to most of the competition.
As for not being able to win without him, I'm also not sure that's completely true. They're not going to beat Miami or OKC in a series without him, but I think they could beat almost any other possible opponent in a series without him*. They're an elite team with him, but they're still damn good without him**.
*Homer alert. But compare them without him to the other East teams; they've already beaten all of the possible first round opponents this year without him. Again, that includes Boston just last week in the middle of this amazing stretch by the C's; like 570 said, the non-Rose Bulls are not a good matchup for the C's.
**They would have a lot of similar problems to teams like Ind, Phi, Atl have in that there's no go to scorer, but I'm not convinced any of those teams are better than the non-Rose Bulls.
Oh, I agree that going by straight record produces incentives that are bad for the NBA. Honestly, part of me thinks that Charlotte is _so bad_ that they shouldn't get a #1 pick until there's more pieces for a future All-NBA player to work with.
The other places I'd like to see him go is to a team that's on the mediocrity treadmill and needs one more star to push them into contention. Denver and Portland (pre-implosions) and Houston seem to fit this criteria in the abstract.
If I could address two problems with the draft, they would be:
(1) Allow bottom-feeders to get rapid infusions of talent in the form of multiple lottery picks. Davis and MKG probably wouldn't be a bad reboot for Charlotte or New Orleans.
(2) Allow fringe playoff teams (just missed or seeded 5-8) to get infusions of talent to get them off the treadmill without having to blow their team up.
This might mean that not every team gets a first round pick. Though that would be a dramatic change from traditional drafts, I don't think that's a bad thing. Teams outside the draft could trade into it, perhaps even with luxury cap / salary cap considerations taken into account -- e.g., "Hey BadTeam, here's a serviceable glue guy who can help your rookies, you can have him without a cap hit"
OTOH, maybe the problems with bad teams are simply poorly run teams (Washington, New Orleans, LAC historically), and they shouldn't get help from the NBA. But at the same time, future stars shouldn't be exiled there either.
Phoenix (if they keep Nash), Cleveland, Washington, Portland. I think him with Irving and Thompson would be awesome in Cleveland.
That said, they're 4 wins better than Miami with 8 to play. If they just split their last two games with the Heat, they'll probably take HCA even if Rose misses all of those games. That'd be big for May.
I made that point last week when I argued that OKC blowing out the Bulls without Rose was still a very impressive feat. But whereas I'd take Chicago without hesitation over Boston if Rose is healthy, I can definitely see Boston pushing, and even beating, the Bulls in a long series with their advantage at PG being the main factor.
Wall + Nene + Davis would look tremendous.
EDIT: If Washington gets Davis, what are the chances that Calipari goes to Washington as well and reunites with Wall and Davis?
Can't we all agree that nothing positive should happen to a Dan Gilbert-owned sports franchise after his post-Lebron insanity?
Although not on Davis's level, Kevin Seraphin has had some really tremendous games this year. He had something like 24-12 on 15 FGA against Orlando the other night... but it was against Big Baby.
Guy gets angry and throws a tantrum because his franchise lost a huge chunk of it's value due to a young guy's whims? I'll cut him some slack for that. He's definitely not on the list of owners that I think are worse. There are a few that I think deserve winning teams less.
He was the highest profile due to the email leak, but Jordan and Cuban popped off about it as well. I have excerpted Gilbert's email to Stern about it twice already on the thread. Gilbert, like many people, was afraid that if the Lakers got Paul, they would also get Howard, and he mentioned that in the email. He also mentioned the Gasol deal.
Gilbert of course also OKd the Sessions deal at the deadline.
I have no sympathy for him. But, I'm not actively going against him, either. I just don't see what he's done that's so horrible.
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