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Friday, February 03, 2012

OT: NBA Monthly Thread, February 2012

I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the inevitable dominance of the Philadelphia 76ers, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: the pharmaceutical industry, allergies, and obscure movies.

Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: February 03, 2012 at 04:46 AM | 1392 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies, twins

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   701. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 15, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4061585)
Since it also happened to be Asian Appreciation Night.

(Not to imply that Chang was chopped liver or anything)
He played ####### tennis. We could choose between tennis or nothing. I chose nothing, and forged signatures to play baseball. My brother did end up playing tennis, but my folks weren't exactly supportive.
   702. madvillain Posted: February 15, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4061618)
How long into something wrt to Taiwanese sovereignty, the US, and Lin comes up? I give it two weeks.
   703. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 15, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4061714)
If he's like most ABCs (American Born Chinese), then probably never.
   704. madvillain Posted: February 15, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4061742)
If he's like most ABCs (American Born Chinese), then probably never.


Are you an ABC? I was simply implying someone will try and turn this into a political angle, like "if China had its way Jeremy's great grandfather would never have been allowed to come to the US" or something like that.

I lived in the middle of Brooklyn's chinatown on 8th avenue for a couple years. Interesting place, to say the least. I miss the pork buns and the markets and the dumpling shops.

anyways, back to basketball.
   705. Zipperholes Posted: February 15, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4061756)
That being said, is it better to look at TOV% instead of pure TOs when assessing his ability to take care of the ball? Which is more relevant for projecting his performance?
It's just percentage of possessions that end in turnovers. So, yea, it's better than just counting turnovers as it accounts for usage. Yea, he's turning it over too much, but you can't argue with the net gain per 100 possessions the Knicks have had with him running the show.
Can you explain the TO% point further? The point made above was that Lin has more TOs but a lower TO% than Rondo and Nash, because he attempts more shots. Let's assume they have the ball in their hands the same amount of time. Why should Lin be deemed better at "taking care of the ball" simply because he shoots while Rondo passes to Pierce?

In other words, why is the denominator in TO% "shots attempted" rather than some other measure of "opportunities to turn the ball over?"
   706. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 15, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4061761)
In other words, why is the denominator in TO% "shots attempted" rather than some other measure of "opportunities to turn the ball over?"
the denominator is possessions used. because lin attempts more shots, he uses more possessions.



also, since we're discussing turnovers, i might as well point out that lou williams is having an astounding season. his assist% is 24.8, and his turnover% is 6.5. using play index, of the players who have a higher assist%, brandon jennings has the next lowest turnover% at 11.0.


   707. Zipperholes Posted: February 15, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4061770)
the denominator is possessions used. because lin attempts more shots, he uses more possessions.
"Possessions used" = possessions that ended with that player either shooting a FG or making a trip to the line, correct? Why is this the universe of plays we look at to determine TO rate?
   708. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4061778)
"Possessions used" = possessions that ended with that player either shooting a FG or making a trip to the line, correct? Why is this the universe of plays we look at to determine TO rate?
from the glossary at bk-ref:

TOV%
Turnover Percentage (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV). Turnover percentage is an estimate of turnovers per 100 plays.



if you don't like this construction of the statistic, what do you think would be a better way to gauge what we're looking at?
   709. Jimmy P Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4061779)
if you don't like this construction of the statistic, what do you think would be a better way to gauge what we're looking at?


Turnovers per 40?
   710. Zipperholes Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4061783)
if you don't like this construction of the statistic, what do you think would be a better way to gauge what we're looking at?
I don't know. Amount of time the ball is in that player's hands? Or amount of time he has the ball that there's a real opportunity to turn the ball over? (I.e., subtracting time spent unguarded bringing the ball up the court) It just makes no sense to me why it should be shots.
   711. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4061785)
Turnovers per 40?
it's not like that's unavailable. lin is at 4.8 per 36, and the only other 4 players who are above 4 are russell westbrook (4.5) deron williams (4.1), steve nash (4.1), and john wall (4.0)
   712. Manny Coon Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4061792)
Turnovers per minute is limited because its not pace adjusted and also because guys like Reggie Evans or Tyson Chandler who basically never attempt to create anything on offense and going to less turnovers just from not doing anything. Even though the number used by turnover percentage is just an estimate, I do agree that more than FGA and FTA should included; I don't know why assists aren't factored in somehow, as those clearly show the player handled the ball on the play as well.
   713. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4061799)
By using FGA,FTA - you're assign the whole possession to only one player. Gets complicated if you want to start divvying it up so that, say, the shooter (say Fields) used 40% of the possession, Lin - who passed him the ball - used 30%, Chandler used 10% through an offensive rebound off a Lin miss and dump of the ball to Walker who...

Synergy/film stuff is a better way of measuring this stuff, but I think metrics like TO% work fine most of the time, including here. (IMO)
   714. madvillain Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4061800)
I don't know. Amount of time the ball is in that player's hands? Or amount of time he has the ball that there's a real opportunity to turn the ball over? (I.e., subtracting time spent unguarded bringing the ball up the court) It just makes no sense to me why it should be shots.


Basketball doesn't have a nice little denominator like plate appearances or innings pitched or a nice discrete nature in general. Basketball usually uses possessions as the increment of measure.

What you are digging at is what Synergy Sports is working on, getting better measures than just possessions and digging into how each possession actually works. Perhaps in 5 years we'll track how long each player in the NBA physically is holding the ball and then break it down as "turnovers per minute on the ball".

That said, I find TO% a fine stat, especially when you couple it with the +- stats that show how much more efficient the Knicks offense is with Lin at the helm.

edit: coke to Der K.
   715. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4061815)
TO% is fine in the way OPS+ is fine, it's a rough quick-and-dirty stat that gives you a pretty good idea about a certain production level. I do wish it included assists, as they also lead directly to the end of a possession.
   716. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4061816)
TO% is fine in the way OPS+ is fine, it's a rough quick-and-dirty stat that gives you a pretty good idea about a certain production level. I do wish it included assists, as they also lead directly to the end of a possession.

I assumed that it did. Is there an easy way to just add this in?
   717. andrewberg Posted: February 15, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4061870)
I assumed that it did. Is there an easy way to just add this in?


You could look at AST% side by side with TO%. That would give you a pretty good idea on what's happening on the possessions that don't end with that player shooting or turning it over.

What you are digging at is what Synergy Sports is working on, getting better measures than just possessions and digging into how each possession actually works. Perhaps in 5 years we'll track how long each player in the NBA physically is holding the ball and then break it down as "turnovers per minute on the ball".


I think this type of work is especially promising for evaluating individual defense. We only have outcome-based stats (ie- defensive efficiency) for things like "making a good rotation," "helping the helper," or "picking the right time to gamble in a passing lane," even though these are the types of things that make someone a good defender. It is going to be hard to eliminate the subjectivity from the evaluation, but I can live with that since basketball is more art than science in a lot of ways.
   718. madvillain Posted: February 15, 2012 at 07:08 PM (#4061884)
Andrew, do you like that sports bar the Spectator in Queen Anne? I think us Seattle NBA BTF folks should meetup sometime. What's your team again? Perhaps for the playoffs if not before.
   719. andrewberg Posted: February 15, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4061899)
Andrew, do you like that sports bar the Spectator in Queen Anne? I think us Seattle NBA BTF folks should meetup sometime. What's your team again? Perhaps for the playoffs if not before.


I've heard good things but never gone. When do the Bulls play the Wolves? That might be a fun one.
   720. Jimmy P Posted: February 15, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4061902)
Andrew, do you like that sports bar the Spectator in Queen Anne? I think us Seattle NBA BTF folks should meetup sometime. What's your team again? Perhaps for the playoffs if not before.

I think you guys should come down south to the city that actually has a team.
   721. andrewberg Posted: February 15, 2012 at 07:20 PM (#4061906)
I think you guys should come down south to the city that actually has a team.


I am planning a weekend trip the first weekend of March to see the Wolves and Blazers.
   722. Jimmy P Posted: February 15, 2012 at 07:47 PM (#4061927)
I am planning a weekend trip the first weekend of March to see the Wolves and Blazers.


Nice. I may be able to meet up if you're interested.
   723. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4061944)

I can't express how awesome this is. When I was growing up, all I had was Michael Chang. Not coincidentally, the only sport my parents allowed us to play in HS was tennis. Booooooo.


That's funny. My mom is Korean, but we pulled for Chang too and she pushed me into tennis.

She draws the line for Japanese-Americans though.
   724. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 15, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4061957)
I think you guys should come down south to the city that actually has a team.


Are there any Portlanders here besides you and me, Jimmy? I'd love to have some kind of meetup, be it the first weekend of March or otherwise.
   725. andrewberg Posted: February 15, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4061959)
Whether I join a Portland meetup depends heavily on whether my girlfriend makes the trip with me.
   726. Chicago Joe Posted: February 15, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4061965)
Whether I join a Portland meetup depends heavily on whether my girlfriend makes the trip with me.


She's that bad, huh?
   727. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 15, 2012 at 08:49 PM (#4061967)
I think you guys should come down south to the city that actually has a team.
Sure, I'll join you guys for a Lakers home game.

Whoop, whoop, whoop!
   728. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 15, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4061975)
this is not looking like a win. orlando started the 1st half on a 23-6 run, and they ended on a 10-0 run, but somehow, that only adds up to a 16 point deficit. i guess that's something.


it's gonna take a hell of a run in the 2nd half to pull a win out of this.
   729. madvillain Posted: February 15, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4061997)
Lin just threw an alley oop to Fields. That's a Harvard to Stanford connection. I think it's safe to say that's the first of its kind in the NBA.

In general Lin is doing a great job balancing control and attack tonight, Knicks are winning easily and Lin is pushing the right buttons.
   730. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 15, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4062002)
It's Always Racial:
I don’t think I’m the only Black man in America who, even if it’s just a slight tug of pride on my racial hardwiring, hopes Tyreke handles himself well tonight against Jeremy Lin.
So far tonight... not so much.
   731. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 09:54 PM (#4062005)
I don’t think I’m the only Black man in America who, even if it’s just a slight tug of pride on my racial hardwiring, hopes Tyreke handles himself well tonight against Jeremy Lin.


We may need to employ Dave Chappelle's racial draft.
   732. madvillain Posted: February 15, 2012 at 10:17 PM (#4062022)
I don’t think I’m the only Black man in America who, even if it’s just a slight tug of pride on my racial hardwiring, hopes Tyreke handles himself well tonight against Jeremy Lin.


Yea I get it, but I don't get it. I also don't think Tyreke Evans is "a good guy". He was in a car during a fatal drive by shooting. Hard to see what a good guy was doing in that situation.
   733. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: February 15, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4062040)
For those watching the game, curious for a Cousins report. 6-15, no FTs, 12 points, 3 rebs, 0 blocks, 4 fouls is... not a good line. How do you take 15 shots as a big without a single FT? Is he just shooting jumpers?

Yea I get it, but I don't get it. I also don't think Tyreke Evans is "a good guy". He was in a car during a fatal drive by shooting. Hard to see what a good guy was doing in that situation.


Maybe by "handles himself well" the guy means "for ####'s sake Tyreke, don't clothesline the guy and embarrass our race".
   734. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 15, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4062048)
Hard to see what a good guy was doing in that situation.

I'm a good guy. I can see how that could have happened to me as a kid (it didn't, but other stuff did).

The article was quite a bit better than I expected, even if I don't share a lot of the author's feelings (or ethnicity) - particularly wrt the quoted bit. I don't see why our failing to appreciate the Ronald Murrays and Tarence Kinseys of the world should cause me to root against Lin.
   735. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4062055)
For those watching the game, curious for a Cousins report. 6-15, no FTs, 12 points, 3 rebs, 0 blocks, 4 fouls is... not a good line. How do you take 15 shots as a big without a single FT? Is he just shooting jumpers?

Clyde, who is a good analyst, pointed out that Cousins kept "attacking" the basket like he was a wing. Lots of up and unders and unnecessarily flowery moves. You're the biggest guy on the court. Just go up strong.
   736. madvillain Posted: February 15, 2012 at 10:48 PM (#4062060)
Clyde, who is a good analyst, pointed out that Cousins kept "attacking" the basket like he was a wing. Lots of up and unders and unnecessarily flowery moves. You're the biggest guy on the court. Just go up strong.


Yea, Clyde's annoying with his dumb couplets, but as far as analysts go, he's pretty good. He is observant and isn't afraid to rip the Knicks, despite working for MSG.
   737. Howie Menckel Posted: February 15, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4062072)

"When I was growing up, all I had was Michael Chang."

I covered his whole career in NY/NJ, pretty much.

Exceptionally polite, cooperative person, uncommon among very young professional athletes in any sport.

Classy.

Did we get a lot of insight, and sense of his emotions off a hard-fought win or brutal loss?

No.

That crazy French Open win - he may not admit it, but that has to be his proudest moment.

Only tennis player who, sitting courtside, I ever saw literally outrun the ball on a hardcourt. Amazing.

   738. kpelton Posted: February 15, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4062088)
That's basically the story of Cousins' career. He is having an awesome season anyway.

On TO%: I believe Hollinger does include turnovers in the denominator. The reason I don't, as was pointed out during the discussion, is so that 2A% + 3A% + FTA% + TO% add to one for each player and each team. That's useful for a lot of purposes. But you're correct that it is not particularly telling in comparing Lin to shoot-first point guards.
   739. Swoboda is freedom Posted: February 15, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4062090)
Yea, Clyde's annoying with his dumb couplets, but as far as analysts go, he's pretty good. He is observant and isn't afraid to rip the Knicks, despite working for MSG.

Except he spend all his time and energy with the swishing and dishing that he rarely makes the good comments and analysis.
   740. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4062091)
[736] The couplets actually lead to my stepfather, who introduced me to basketball/the Knicks, giving up his fandom. He just couldn't stomach watching the games and having to listen to Clyde. He hasn't watched more than a few minutes here and there of a Knick game since the late 90s...until this week where he's been watching every minute from pre to post-game. But back to my point, I remember once reading somewhere that Clyde started doing the rhyming because it helped him learn words back in the day and after finding that out I've been a lot more forgiving about it. As a black man I sometimes feel bad about forgetting that guys like Clyde grew up/played in an era where a lot of opportunities were cut off.
   741. madvillain Posted: February 15, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4062123)
As a black man I sometimes feel bad about forgetting that guys like Clyde grew up/played in an era where a lot of opportunities were cut off.


Had no idea you were black. I think this thread must have the greatest diversity on BTF. Well, Steagles is a breed onto his own at least.

It is sorta surreal to think in 2012 race relations have come as far as we are debating the cultural impact of a Taiwanese American in a sport dominated by African Americans. We got a long way to go, but a long way has been traveled.
   742. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 11:52 PM (#4062133)

It is sorta surreal to think in 2012 race relations have come as far as we are debating the cultural impact of a Taiwanese American in a sport dominated by African Americans. We got a long way to go, but a long way has been traveled.


The joke a few years ago was the best golfer in the world was a black guy and the best rapper was a white guy.
   743. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 16, 2012 at 08:56 AM (#4062231)
Lost in all the Lin hoopla...the Knicks are now 8th in Defensive Efficiency.
   744. The Essex Snead Posted: February 16, 2012 at 09:53 AM (#4062247)
[743] But that's mostly because of all the burn Jeffries has been getting in the absence of Melo & STAT, isn't it? & the Lin factor, getting everyone to play as a team & bust their hump & turn loaves of bread into better loaves of bread &c.
   745. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 16, 2012 at 10:43 AM (#4062277)
The joke a few years ago was the best golfer in the world was a black guy and the best rapper was a white guy.


Now we're going to get "the best non-black basketball player is an Asian guy".
   746. JC in DC Posted: February 16, 2012 at 10:51 AM (#4062289)
Lin has just been huge for Fields and Shumpert. Fields has awakened, and I hope permanently, in that he sees he can be good if he stops being so f-ing deferential. Shumpert now has a role much more suited to his stage of development: second ballhandler, lockdown defender, occasional scorer. Things are blending so much better.
   747. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 16, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4062300)
1. Is anyone else getting the provocative pool playing women ad at the bottom of the page?

2. [746] Fields, who I was really down on to start the year, has just been terrific lately. I feel the same way about him now that I did Gallo before the trade. Some of the numbers in terms of PER or other super stats may not look that different, but the shape of the performance gives me much greater confidence about his ability to stick in the league. Despite getting called for the travel on the first play of the game last night, he's finally starting to get the hang of the hop step, which is allowing him to take advantage of his athleticism in order to get to the rim. This is great because, despite making clear improvements he still isn't much of a ball-handler, especially in traffic. He's also improved leaps and bounds on the PnR just by being more aggressive and making quicker decisions rather than waiting that extra split second and floating a bad pass.

3. [744] They were 10th before Jeffries started getting minutes so his presence (And the schedule) has helped some but this is still a much improved defensive unit with much of that credit going to Chandler and Shump.
   748. JJ1986 Posted: February 16, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4062305)
The joke a few years ago was the best golfer in the world was a black guy and the best rapper was a white guy.


At some point around then, Nash was also a two-time MVP.
   749. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 16, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4062332)
Apparently Shump has been picked for the Dunk Contest. Nate Robinson's missed dunk record is in serious jeopardy.

EDIT: Shumpert, Derrick Williams, Paul George and Chase Budinger will compete. 1 round format with fan vote deciding the winner.

No Rookie-Soph game for Lin but will take part in the Shooting Stars Challenge (I have no idea what this is).

Source: http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/7581045/report-jeremy-lin-new-york-knicks-added-all-star-weekend-lineup
   750. Jimmy P Posted: February 16, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4062344)
Are there any Portlanders here besides you and me, Jimmy? I'd love to have some kind of meetup, be it the first weekend of March or otherwise.


I didn't even know you were in Portland, I thought I was the only one. I know Kevin Pelton comes down here a good amount to go to games.

Whether I join a Portland meetup depends heavily on whether my girlfriend makes the trip with me.


I drag mine with me whenever I meet someone from here. She thought it was odd at first to meet random people from the internet, but she's good with it now.
   751. Jimmy P Posted: February 16, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4062345)
No Rookie-Soph game for Lin but will take part in the Shooting Stars Challenge (I have no idea what this is).


That's the thing with the old guy, the WNBA player, and the NBA player. The one where they make routine shots and then half-heartedly chuck half courters.

Ok, the 3 point lineup is a little odd. I guess I see the tv draw of Kevin Love, but Joe Johnson and Chalmers? Do they really deserve to be there?
   752. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4062380)
For those watching the game, curious for a Cousins report. 6-15, no FTs, 12 points, 3 rebs, 0 blocks, 4 fouls is... not a good line. How do you take 15 shots as a big without a single FT? Is he just shooting jumpers?

See, this is a totally different sounding player than the guy who played against the Bulls the night before.

Apparently Shump has been picked for the Dunk Contest. Nate Robinson's missed dunk record is in serious jeopardy.

Yep, I thought of you when I heard that. And when I saw this linked:

The dirty secret here, as any Knick fan can tell you, is that Shumpert has been pretty awful at doing dunks (and at the rim in general) this season. In fact, Shump's converted just 10 of 15 dunks he's attempted
   753. andrewberg Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4062398)
Now we're going to get "the best non-black basketball player is an Asian guy".


I have been glad that the Linsanity has taken some of the pressure and expectations off of Rubio (who continues to do his thing, but with healthier backcourt mates). Putting him ahead of Love is going too far. Are you Linsane!

The joke a few years ago was the best golfer in the world was a black guy and the best rapper was a white guy.


I miss the days of Vijay Singh and Snow.

Apparently Shump has been picked for the Dunk Contest. Nate Robinson's missed dunk record is in serious jeopardy.


Are we keeping the Birdman in a separate category? I'm fine with that because he is probably the only dunk contest entrant to participate high on meth.

---

Anyone see the reports that the Wolves are trying to trade Williams+ for Gasol? I don't think that trade makes much sense for either team. The Lakers need depth, not prospects, and the Wolves need an athletic big man and a wing who can create his own shot. Gasol would probably help get them over the hump to the 7th or 8th seed, but he'd kind of lock them in there unless Rubio turns into Steve Nash. If they're swinging for the fences, I'd rather go after Eric Gordon based on this team's needs.
   754. Jimmy P Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4062404)
I'd rather go after Eric Gordon based on this team's needs

Don't you want a guy that actually plays?

On a less sarcastic note, I'm not sure Eric Gordon is swinging for the fences. He's only showed that he's top flight for a two (three?) month stretch in a three year career. I'm just still not seeing the hype.
   755. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4062405)
On a less sarcastic note, I'm not sure Eric Gordon is swinging for the fences. He's only showed that he's top flight for a two (three?) month stretch in a three year career. I'm just still not seeing the hype.

I agree with this. You also have to consider whether he may be ready for the "injury prone" label.

EDIT: Guess the rest of Jimmy P's post says as much.
   756. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:32 PM (#4062406)
the less that's aaid about last night, the better, but i'm still in awe of this:

RoobCSN: Since 2006, Sixers have allowed 15 or more threes in a game 12 times. The Magic have done it 7 times. Five teams once each
   757. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4062409)
I think this thread must have the greatest diversity on BTF. Well, Steagles is a breed onto his own at least.
truer words may never be spoken.
   758. Jimmy P Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4062412)
I agree with this. You also have to consider whether he may be ready for the "injury prone" label.


I had a small discussion on Twitter with Mr. Pelton about this. I am a believer in injury prone, and if we're going to criticize Oden, Bynum, and others, then Gordon's in there. Only made 70+ games once, slow healing, and even his one year of college had injury issues.

I know there's no proof that guys can be injury prone or that injuries to different parts of the body aren't linked etc. But, if you do throw the label around, Eric Gordon fits it.
   759. andrewberg Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4062425)
I had a small discussion on Twitter with Mr. Pelton about this. I am a believer in injury prone, and if we're going to criticize Oden, Bynum, and others, then Gordon's in there. Only made 70+ games once, slow healing, and even his one year of college had injury issues.


Fair point. He has been hurt a lot, and I have not taken that into consideration as I probably should. In the 56 games he played last year, he was an elite 2, which is a scarce commodity today. He would help a lot with the way the team is built, but maybe he doesn't have the ability to stay healthy. I guess the more reasonable goal would be to get OJ Mayo anyway. He will never be a star, but I think he would fit the system well, and his defense would help a ton.
   760. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4062430)
Ok, the 3 point lineup is a little odd. I guess I see the tv draw of Kevin Love, but Joe Johnson and Chalmers? Do they really deserve to be there?

mySynergySports: Unguarded Catch+Shoot 3P%s for Contest: James Jones 60%, Chalmers 54%, Morrow 48%, Anderson 46%, Kevin Love 42% Joe Johnson 38%


   761. Jimmy P Posted: February 16, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4062456)
mySynergySports: Unguarded Catch+Shoot 3P%s for Contest: James Jones 60%, Chalmers 54%, Morrow 48%, Anderson 46%, Kevin Love 42% Joe Johnson 38%

I didn't know Chalmers was that good of a shooter.
   762. andrewberg Posted: February 16, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4062460)
1. Is anyone else getting the provocative pool playing women ad at the bottom of the page?


My omnipresent netflix ad is some mousy girl with an envelope. I never realized how much I would miss Christina Hendrix until she was gone.
   763. madvillain Posted: February 16, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4062497)
I think Steve Novak should have been an the 3 point contest. That guy seems to make 2/3 of his open threes.
   764. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 16, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4062540)
KCJHoop: DRose did shooting this AM and gametime decision vs. Celtics. #Bulls

KCJHoop: DRose said he felt no pain at shootaround. However, he merely shot FTs and there's also this: "I wasn’t able to run any." #Bulls


KC is pretty much their mouthpiece, so he's not going to say Rose won't play until the team does. But I'd be shocked if he played tonight.

WTF is up with the C's by the way? Lose to Tor, beat the Bulls then lose at home to Detroit. I have no idea what to expect out of them tonight, back end of a traveling b2b.
   765. Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio Posted: February 16, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4062551)
WTF is up with the C's by the way? Lose to Tor, beat the Bulls then lose at home to Detroit. I have no idea what to expect out of them tonight, back end of a traveling b2b.

What's up is that they're freaking old, and it's finally starting to show. What's happening to them now is what happened to them late last season, only much earlier this year.
   766. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 16, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4062592)
Are we keeping the Birdman in a separate category? I'm fine with that because he is probably the only dunk contest entrant to participate high on meth.


I don't know, there's a lot of loose cannons on this list. (Looking in Ricky Davis's direction)
   767. JC in DC Posted: February 16, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4062605)
I don't know if it's been raised or even seems to be the issue, NJ, but is it possible that Shump's hands are small or that he just has bad hands? That is, do his dunk misses seem to you to be related to the ball slipping out of his hands? I haven't seen him miss more than once, so I can't tell.
   768. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 16, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4062626)
[767] I've seen a couple tweets to that effect but I don't know if they were being serious or not. It does seem like it's mostly a control of the ball problem on the majority of his failed dunks/layups. The other thing it might be (POOMA) is that since he's a 2 foot leaper he sometimes gets off the ground awkwardly (this sounded better in my head).

EDIT: Apparently JR Smith is close to signing with the Knicks.
   769. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 16, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4062651)
Apparently JR Smith is close to signing with the Knicks.

I expected as much, before the Lin stuff.
   770. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 16, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4062663)
I didn't even know you were in Portland, I thought I was the only one.


Yeah, I don't make a ton of noise about it, and the Celtics fandom is likely a bit of a smokescreen.

WTF is up with the C's by the way?


Doc Rivers had a quote last night (I think) about how the team had proven that they could beat any team on a given night, and they could lose to any team on a given night. Joey B is right that it's age, and that the team is too thin behind the big 4 to absorb off nights from more than one of them. Yesterday Rondo went off, but KG was out and Pierce and Ray were barely even there. When they have everyone in good form the team is still formidable, but that doesn't happen more than 20-40% of the time.
   771. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 16, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4062674)

I didn't know Chalmers was that good of a shooter.


Didn't watch the 2008 NCAA Finals?
   772. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 16, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4062692)
Didn't watch the 2008 NCAA Finals?

I'm pretty sure that game technically never happened.
   773. madvillain Posted: February 16, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4062711)
Rose is a game time decision. Still no work on Rip. God damnit, I'm tired of these ############# scrubs in this ############# starting lineup!
   774. smileyy Posted: February 16, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4062748)
Chicago Bulls starters : scrubs :: Charlotte Bobcats starters : ???
   775. Jimmy P Posted: February 16, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4062754)
Chicago Bulls starters : scrubs :: Charlotte Bobcats starters : ???


What's the best high school basketball team in Charlotte?
   776. SouthSideRyan Posted: February 16, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4062771)
I don't know, but Jordan wants to draft their center ASAP
   777. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 16, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4062809)
Still no work on Rip.

Last I heard, KC said maybe another week. He just rejoined the team after his grandmother's death, so they didn't have a real injury update on him yet.
   778. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 16, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4062948)
Chicago Bulls starters : scrubs :: Charlotte Bobcats starters : ???

I don't know, but the Bobcats starters look even worse now that DJ Augustin is back "running" the offense instead of Kemba Walker.
   779. andrewberg Posted: February 16, 2012 at 08:15 PM (#4062962)
The Bobcats have 2 waves of so-so backups. They have a ton of guys who can play specific roles, but no one good or complete enough to warrant being a starter. Augustin or Walker (who could grow into a solid player) play like scoring third guards, Reggie Williams has an offensive game but is inconsistent, Maggette doesn't play D or pass, Thomas/Diop/Biyombo are athletic and energetic big men, Diaw and Mullens are finesse big men with quirky games. They would all make good backups on a decent team.
   780. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 16, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4062977)
They seemed like the poor man's Sixers the other night. Instead of Vucevic, they have BJ "Byron" Mullens. Instead of Elton Brand, they have Boris Diaw. Instead of Iguodala, they have Corey Maggette. Instead of Lavoy Allen, they have Bismarck Mutombo (in this case the Sixers are the poor man). They have an exciting point guard, and then several scorers of equal value. They both have venerable coaches.

The Sixers could use someone like Tyrus Thomas though.
   781. Fourth True Outcome Posted: February 16, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4062984)
The fact that, as a C's fan, I'm excited Rose is out for tonight's game pretty much says it all about this year's Celtics, huh?
   782. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 16, 2012 at 09:09 PM (#4062987)
The Sixers could use someone like Tyrus Thomas though.
Right this moment, Tyrus Thomas is more valuable than LaMarcus Aldridge.

The fact that, as a C's fan, I'm excited Rose is out for tonight's game pretty much says it all about this year's Celtics, huh?
Yep. And even with that, I wouldn't make the C's overwhelming favorites or anything.
Jeremy isn't playing tonight. The Lakers are off. What am I to do!
   783. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 16, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4063015)
You know, I've liked Ty Thomas more than most for about forever. That said - he has negative win shares this season (thanks to an ORtg of 84!) - you could argue that he's been less valuable than Aldridge is now, hurt and out.
   784. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 16, 2012 at 10:10 PM (#4063019)
The Sixers could use someone like Tyrus Thomas though.
i'd rather take my chances with eurogoon and allen. i think their continued development would be more valuable than any marginal improvement in defensive efficiency that thomas would bring.


i'd be really careful about any personnel changes if i were the sixers. with how well the team has played to this point, it just seems like there's more harm than good that can come from most potential deals.
   785. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 16, 2012 at 10:35 PM (#4063033)
Oh, no doubt. It would just be nice if Lavoy Allen was a sort of jumping-jack guy off the bench, instead of being a potential Elton Brand Jr.

Not that Tyrus Thomas is the jumping-jack he once was, despite his continued skinniness.
   786. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 16, 2012 at 11:16 PM (#4063059)
Oh, no doubt. It would just be nice if Lavoy Allen was a sort of jumping-jack guy off the bench, instead of being a potential Elton Brand Jr.

Not that Tyrus Thomas is the jumping-jack he once was, despite his continued skinniness.
lavoy has been about 2000x more productive so far this season than i thought he'd be over his entire career. considering how little i thought the team would get out of him, i'm not gonna get on him now for not producing enough.


   787. PJ Martinez Posted: February 16, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4063068)
Believe there was just a very loud "Rondo sucks!" chant in Chicago. Nice to see the fan continuity (I assume that's largely about what happened in the playoffs a few years ago).
   788. tshipman Posted: February 16, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4063072)
So, I was really interested in a throw-away comment Kobe made about double-teams in a BDL post. He said something like that if he throws up a shot when he's double-teamed, that it means they have a much better chance at an offensive rebound.

Has anyone looked at this? Not for the Kobester, but for double-teams in general? kpelton?
   789. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: February 17, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4063106)
i know i've been kind of critical of them of late, so i'd just like to acknowledge that, by beating boston tonight, chicago has won their first game against an above .500 opponent since they last beat boston 19 games ago. tonights win breaks a streak of chicago having lost 5 consecutive games against teams that have been above .500, so i'm here to give them credit for finally beating a team that is now 15-14.
   790. kpelton Posted: February 17, 2012 at 02:57 AM (#4063148)
Has anyone looked at this? Not for the Kobester, but for double-teams in general? kpelton?

Can't say I recall that specifically. I do remember Hollinger studying Iverson's missed shots at some point to see if they were rebounded more frequently because of a similar effect. I don't think they were but I thought that was in the first Prospectus edition and apparently it's not.
   791. robinred Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:09 AM (#4063151)
There have been a few times this year late when Bynum or Gasol has cleaned up Kobe's misses with putbacks, and as noted, the Lakers are 9-3 this year in games decided by 5 or less. My guess is Kobe remembers this, sees it as a way to parry his critics, and said it, but that there is not a major effect.
   792. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 17, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4063403)
Boozer had his best game last night, both on the scoresheet and effort-wise since he's been in Chicago, IMO (and against non-scrub competition). He hilariously can't jump anymore (as evidenced by the fast break missed dunk/layup and the non-dunk dunk and 1 on O'Neal), but he did a great job on the defensive boards and his passing was superb. Actually, the ball movement as a whole last night was crisp and sharp. The Bulls were able to pick apart the C's interior defense with quick, smart passes that led to multiple open looks. Of course, they had at least 2 long, long stretches of just horrendous offense mixed in, so the final shooting percentage of under 40% is still pretty goddamned ugly.

i know i've been kind of critical of them of late, so i'd just like to acknowledge that, by beating boston tonight, chicago has won their first game against an above .500 opponent since they last beat boston 19 games ago. tonights win breaks a streak of chicago having lost 5 consecutive games against teams that have been above .500, so i'm here to give them credit for finally beating a team that is now 15-14.

Keep trying to convince us the Sixers are better. The Bulls DRtg is now less than a point behind Philly - the dominant 3.5 point lead is shrinking by the day. Bulls now have the largest point diff as well, over a point higher than Miami and Philly. The Bulls, in spite of some of the ugliest offense you'll ever see the past week against Boston, are within a point of Miami's top ranked offense. And this is without their best offense player for a third of their games. The Bulls played their 12th home game last night, they'd have to go 2-4 to catch Philly's home record. They still have only played 5 games with their projected starting 5 this season. You keep harping on this .500 thing, because it's the only thing you've got. While the Bulls' 8-6 record against .500 isn't setting the world on fire, it's still better than Philly's 6-9 (and I'll only mention again parenthetically of those 6 wins, the other team was missing a top 2 player in 4 of them and only 1 was on the road). If it keeps you distracted from the fact that Philly is only 1 game over .500 this month, knock yourself out.
   793. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 17, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4063404)
Sorry about that. I just can't help myself.

---

I'm interested to see the Knicks' new lineup when Melo comes back. Lots of interesting pieces there, so it'll be interesting to see how they all fit.
   794. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 17, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4063409)
I gotta say, the current projected playoff matchups from Hollinger would seem to make for quite the interesting postseason, I don't think there's a matchup dud in here (maybe the Atl/Orl rematch, but that could still be a great series).

Chi/Bos, Mia/NYK, Phi/Ind, Atl/Orl
OKC/Den, SA/Mem, LAC/Hou, Dal/LAL
   795. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4063464)
This was pretty awesome/funny:
"I said . . . 'If I was a stats guy, Metta, you wouldn't be playing at all. Look at your stats offensively. And then Synergy (Sports Technology) says you're the 192nd-best defensive player in the league,'" Lakers head coach Mike Brown said.

"If I was a stats guy, the guy that should be playing at the small-forward spot is Devin Ebanks because he's shooting better than you and Matt."
   796. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4063510)
Also, the JR move is done so the Knicks rotation now looks something like this:

C Chandler
PF STAT
SF Melo
SG Fields
PG Lin

6-JR Smith
7-Shump
8-Novak
9-Bibby
10-Jeffries
   797. andrewberg Posted: February 17, 2012 at 02:58 PM (#4063527)
You think JR will move over to play more three, maybe with Melo at the 4 in a small ball lineup, so Shump can stay off the ball?
   798. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4063573)
I do remember Hollinger studying Iverson's missed shots at some point to see if they were rebounded more frequently because of a similar effect.

Is there any place that tracks the value (or tries to) of different types of shots? I know individual shooting percentages are broken down by distance from the rim, but I've always thought that driving layups from perimeter players were more valuable than any other type of shot because that type of shot has the best possibility of being rebounded and converted by a teammate. A low field goal percentage on those shots would mask the actual value of them to the team.

Of course "driving layup" is going to be subjective and there would be some other issues, but is no one tracking that kind of thing at this point?
   799. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4063580)
In case you haven't heard...
Jeremy Lin will play in the Rising Stars Challenge after all.

The New York Knicks point guard was added Thursday to the roster of players for the Feb. 24 game at All-Star Weekend in Orlando, just before Shaquille O'Neal and Charles Barkley began drafting for their teams.
...
New York's current sensation has also been invited to play a role in the Sprite Slam Dunk Contest.

Sources with knowledge of the league's plans told ESPN.com that Knicks rookie Shumpert -- one of four dunk-contest entrants alongside Houston Rockets forward Chase Budinger, Indiana Pacers swingman Paul George and Minnesota Timberwolves rookie Derrick Williams -- will be enlisting Lin to "assist" him in a manner similar to the help 2011 champion Blake Griffin got from then-Los Angeles Clippers teammate Baron Davis.

O'Neal took Lin with his third pick after starting with the Clippers' Blake Griffin. Barkley took Cleveland's Kyrie Irving at No. 2.
   800. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4063616)
I saw that Ben Wallace broke the record for number of games played by an undrafted player, and he also said he'd be retiring at the end of the year. My opinion of him is colored by his severe underpeformance in Chicago, including handband-gate and leading the vets to lengthen a suspension of Noah, but he had a great career and was a good player for a long time in spite of severe offensive limitations.
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