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I'm almost positive that I've seen this and that there is a difference. I actually seem to remember 3PA as having the best OR% because they lead to longer rebounds (which are more unpredictable and therefore less dependent on position).
Oh, here you go! Found this from 82games. Lots to digest, but shots in the paint seem to have the highest OR%, followed by 3's, with long twos bringing up the rear.
I saw Chang a couple times from real good seats.
TV does not come close to showing you how good those guys are.
Thanks for that.
The other thing I would want to track is the conversion percentage after those offensive rebounds. While 3PA may yield nearly as many offensive rebounds, I would think offensive rebounds off of driving layups (particularly from perimeter players) would be converted at a higher rate than would 3PA offensive rebounds becasue the former are (typically) grabbed in, or near, the paint. Thereby making them easier to convert.
http://www.countthebasket.com/blog/2008/03/29/rebounding-by-shot-location/
But that doesn't specifically address the question of interior shots by perimeter players versus interior shots by interior players.
The article also touches on the Arenas Provision, named after Arenas's free agent departure from GS in 2003, which as a Warriors fan makes one think. The Warriors couldn't match Washington's offer because they didn't have the cap space, and didn't have the cap space because of their desire to give Adonal Foyle a big extension earlier that year because his 5 ppg and 6 rpg were very important to the team's long-term success, despite everyone knowing and widespread discussion of the fact that they wouldn't have room to extend Gilbert if they did so. I remember multiple articles, including some from the nascent Sports Guy, about how they could have one or the other but not both, and how dumb it would be to choose Foyle over Arenas. The Warriors of course seemed to be the only people in the world who didn't get this and with eyes wide open gave Foyle the extension, talked about it like it was a must ... and then that offseason seemed collectively stunned, just stunned, when indeed the thing that everyone said was going to happen happened and Arenas got offered a big contract by Washington and was gone.
I remember at the time wondering what exactly the Warriors FO was thinking - what did they think was going to happen? They were going to re-up Foyle, awesome, and then ... nobody was going to offer Arenas a contract, despite the fact that he was clearly a budding star, and the Warriors were going to get him back for the $600,000 or whatever they had left under the cap? Or was there (I suspected) no actual plan, and it was just a bunch of idiots throwing around TV money?
That was really dumb. Anyway, what makes me think is if you would have told me that 9 years later the Warriors would still be just as dumb of a franchise (I could list all their various stupidities over the last 9 years, but who cares) ... I probably would have believed you. That's how low my expectations were after the blithering 90s, which were then indeed followed up by the just-as-dumb-as-ever 00s and now 10s. There are other franchises out there that are just as snakebitten or just as unlucky, but I can't believe there's any franchise out there as collectively stupid as the Warriors have been for the last 20 years.
All right, that's enough of that!
Btw, am I the only person here who wishes color blind accessible charts were used more often? Just wondering...
At least GS is pretty good at finding guys like Arenas/Ellis/Curry and Morrow/CJW/Lin in the first place, even if they tend not to know what to do with them...
At least didn't continue on his initial pace of 1 TO/min...
Huge win for the Grizzlies. Gives them the tie-breaker over DEN for the season and probably guarantees that they are still over .500 when Randolph returns after the break, which he is apparently on track to do. I can't really complain about the season so far, they've been pretty schizophrenic, but they've stayed in the playoff hunt and gone 5 games over .500 since he went down. Definitely would have taken that no questions asked back in January.
Well, first of all, thank you for graciously responding after the Pelton Signal was thrown up. Second of all, it seems like a really interesting thing to look at--it's possible that a small "star premium" needs to be built into how we evaluate players. IOW, if a missed shot by Kobe, Carmelo or LeBron is actually worth more than a missed shot by Bruce Bowen.
Just throwing that out there, in case you feel like writing an article about it (I would totally pay for a full year of Basketball Prospectus for that article).
That's how I felt about seeing Michael Adams live. Man that guy was fast. Shot was just as ugly on tv, though.
Marc Gasol (in his best year ever at 27): 49.9% shooting, 15 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.7 APG, 2.1 Blocks per game
Pau Gasol (in his worst year in 5 years): 50.1% shooting, 16.8 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.3 blocks per game
I'd say that Marc has some work to do for the second sentence to be true. He is almost certainly benefiting from the absence of Zach Randolph as well (7.7 defensive rebounds per game compared to 5.1 last year).
He misses Odom--they worked well together.
He misses the Triangle.
He and Bynum overlap some.
He is aging a bit.
The lack of a PG to get him the ball is a problem in the new system.
If the Lakers can get PG help without moving him, or if he is moved to a team with a good PG, I expect he will do a little better the second half of the year. And he is still a fine player as is.
2. Lin's conversion rate at the basket has really dropped over the last few games while his mid range numbers remain high and he seems to be finding a 3 pt stroke.
3. How much longer are we all going to not care that LeBron is putting up the greatest statistical season ever? The gap between LeBron (#1) and D-Wade (#2) in PER is roughly the gap between Wade and Brandan Wright (#27).
4. This Pekovic thing really deserves more attention as well.
5. *Reads box score* Iman Shumpert missed another layup last night. I'm going to go ahead and assume it was uncontested.
EDIT: 6. Kevin Durant is shooting 50.7% on long 2s. Wow.
Until he is holding the O'Brien Trophy on a makeshift stage at center court in Oklahoma City after Game 5 of the Finals.
Hmm. This doesn't square with my memory, and according to this handy site, Foyle's new contracts with the Warriors were signed in 2000 (before Arenas was a gleam in Otis Smith's eye) and 2004 (after he was already gone). Certainly, Golden State did some dumb things to be over the cap in the summer of 2003, but I can't find any contracts they signed during the 2002-03 season that got them there. By the time they realized how good Arenas was, it was already too late.
Just throwing that out there, in case you feel like writing an article about it (I would totally pay for a full year of Basketball Prospectus for that article).
I don't know if I can figure out a way to run the numbers, but if I can, sure thing.
i think there was a point last night where dirk scored more 2nd half points than the sixers. that point was with about 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. it was just a bloodbath.
the road doesn't get much easier right now, either. @minnesota on sunday, and @memphis on tuesday, and @houston on wednesday. if this team continues to play with its head under water, they're gonna give up some major ground.
Sad state of affairs at ESPN and America when that #### somehow sneaks past everyone's common sense meter.
Wait, Lebron is scoring 50 points and 25 rebounds a game? (Checks). Nope.
(Sorry, can't resist a chance to give Wilt his due).
Seemed inevitable, though I wouldn't have thought it would happened at a top end outlet. (Makes you wonder how many people review the content before it's posted.) At least they got it out of the way early.
Edit: the phrase has also appeared in an interview segment...that one seems more understandable. The phrase gets used all the time and it's probably difficult to think on the spot, "I can use this phrase any time except discussing Chinese teams, the Patriots' secondary, and the Knicks..."
Someone on another board I read, who claimed to have once worked for ESPN, says this sort of racial punning is common, and usually goes up as a placeholder until the real headline is worked out.
Not sure how seriously to take his claim, but it sure lends even more evidence of ESPN's oft reported "good ol'e boy" workplace.
Edit: I agree wrt the announcer, puck.
Season has a ways to go, but... LBJ has a higher PER and WS/48 than wilt did that yr...
Heh. Lotta mind boggling numbers in that season...48+ minutes/game, too...
If season ended today, James would set single season PER mark, 2nd in WS/48.
It's not much different than his 2010 season, is it? It's basically the same season except he takes two fewer three pointers per game. I guess that's why it doesn't seem like a big deal. He might have been better in 2010.
Same neighborhood as earlier peaks though, just a bit different shape w the added and improved post play and rebounding.
This is pretty much it, I think. The narrative is etched in stone right now. LeBron's a choker until he proves otherwise, and the only way to prove otherwise is for the Heat to win a title and for LeBron to play a huge role in the victory. We're officially at the point where there's nothing LeBron can do in the regular season to change any minds.
Yeah that is what I was thinking last night as well. To use it in a headline in print regarding Lin is pretty much awful, since you would have the chance to look at it, read it to yourself, presumably have multiple other people look at it as well, etc. But it is a somewhat common phrase, and I have much less of an issue with someone using it in a spontaneous interview. (I'm assuming it was unintentionally used in the interview, if the person went out of his way to say it because he was referring to Lin that is also pretty bad).
We could nearly bring all these NBA threads full circle if I write, as I truly believe, that KAJ is one of the most underappreciated players to ever play.
Crazy ending. Paul made a couple shockingly poor decisions down the stretch in OT.
So we're at the point where we stop being in awe of Jeremy and the Knicks, and start talking about them as a team with a real puncher's chance in the EC, right?
Define "puncher's chance." If they put it all together, maybe they'll battle with the Sixers for the best team not headquartered in Chicago or Miami. And if Carmelo, Amare, Lin, and Smith click, they could be awesome offensively. But that's not a given, and Tyson Chandler is their only above-average defensive starter (happily, he's well above average, but all those other guys are ... not).
Do you think the 2006-2008 Suns would have a puncher's chance in this year's Eastern Conference? That's the best case scenario for this year's Knicks--if you just throw out the first 20 games of this year and last year and just say, this team is a 60 win caliber team going forward.
No. I don't think that team has a real shot at winning the East. The East this year, to me, has two excellent teams that are built to compete in the playoffs (MIA and CHI), and MIA, to me at least, is the clear favorite to come out of the East.
Can the Knicks have a run where they shoot 50% on threes for 5 games and knock out Miami? Yes, but it's not likely.
I assumed we were talking about raw stats -- points, assists, rebounds, etc. Otherwise, why qualify the statement with "greatest statistical season"? Why not simply "greatest season"?
I think PER and WS/48 are problematic in a lockout year, since they feature a baseline which is artificially low this year due to the schedule and abbreviated training camp. It's sort of like expansion years in baseball--people regard numbers in those seasons with some skepticism.
You're right I have my timeline wrong on the contract. Clearly my memory is faulty. Thinking more about it, it was a trade deadline thing - they had a bunch of guys they wanted to move at the trade deadline for cap space, but Foyle was the only guy anyone wanted because he could block shots. They balked at including him, or wouldn't put him into a deal as a sweetener, or something like that, and therefore didn't have the room. Or something like that. That they then gave Foyle a huge contract that he clearly wasn't worth was the cherry on top.
As for wilt - I love the guy, as longtime thread watchers know, but that was a super high pace era - we can't just ignore that.
850-I dunno, James had a short camp/accelerated season too. I might discount it for predicting the playoffs/subsequent seasons, but what happens, happened. Now, that it's less than 82 games - that's a separate issue.
I think the underappreciation comes from the only one championship between 1971 and 1980. He had some bad luck in there and the top of the league was very strong, and you can't blame him, but that's probably the best explanation. They never should have, e.g., lost Game 7 at home in the '74 Finals. In his prime, he was almost impossible to stop and the sky hook is easily the most unstoppable shot ever deployed.
Meanwhile the Samuel Dalembert contract on its own made fans shudder every time they saw him.
Is it me, or is Amare looking old? His defense was always bad, but he looks really slow out there. And I don't remember how many shots have been blocked in the low post. He doesn't seem to have the hops any more. Yes, I know he is coming back, but it is worrying.
Agree.
As for Amare, yes, he looks really bad this year.
But Chris Webber came with a free frogurt.
As for Amare: He grabbed an offensive rebound late in the 4th today and had to settle for pump-faking Nowitzki into a foul so he could go to the line. Having not watched him much this year, I was pretty surprised he didn't just rise up and dunk it from where he was. More evidence, maybe, that his hops are vanishing.
Until Linsanity, I hadn't really watched the Knicks much either. Wasn't Amare running and dunking as well as ever just last season? What's different now?
I wouldn't go that far. I think that Jeffries offense has improved a little, but he is still pretty bad on the offensive side of the ball.
I feel for Amare. Seems like a real good guy. Handling all this well, but looks skittish to me.
Thirded, same thought here on that play.
[864] Jeffries D>>>>>STAT'S O>>>Jeffries O>>>>>>>STAT's D.
I agree with this. Unlike Melo, who I actively disliked before he came here and have only grown to hate more, STAT is a guy who I didn't like but have grown to really like (despite his insistence on showing up his teammates when the team gives up an easy bucket despite the fact a.) helllloooooo pot and b.) it usually is his fault).
In other news, today Sebastian Priuiti made me feel a way about Lin I imagine some of the Lakers guys often feel about Kobe (this is not to say Lin is on Kobe's level).
I'll go with a 15/6.5 season average for Lin. I think he needs more rest and is going to wear down pretty soon, but I think he can develop into a better 3-point shooter and be a legit starter.
I think it's the guaranteed contracts more than the caP. Which leads to the question: many commentators over the past week have noted that the Lin story is so unusual in basketball because talent evaluation is so much less variable in basketball. But if that's the case, how to explain the huge number of bad contracts out there?
The end of the game was interesting. They were down 1 with 29 seconds left and RA told them not to foul, they got the stop. Love took the inbound on the left wing with 3.6 left, drove to his left, got guys in the air, and got to the line to make 2 with .1 on the clock. Rubio had 14 in the first quarter in what was by far his most aggressive offensive night, and it helped that his shot was on. Other than that, three things were interesting. One, it was the first time Pek got double teamed, but it was on the bounce, not when he caught it. Second, JJ carried the offense for long stretches with the second unit not creating much. Third, Martel Webster replaced Wes in the crunch time lineup. Not sure if it is a matchup thing, as in he doesn't fear Iguodala on offense, but it was a welcome respite.
In a very entertaining game. How has Birdman not had a reality show yet?
I always thought Birdman didn't get his due. The guy is a freak show but he is a pretty effective basketball player.
Wow... Durant.
I don't know about that, we seen teams give bad contracts in baseball too, and baseball teams either try to ride out the contract,(Alfonso Soriano) trade the player, eating millions in the process(A.J. Burnett) or just outright cut him. (Andruw Jones)
In Basketball, due to the CBA and the cap, it incentives teams A) Sign players to contracts that may or may not reflect his true value, and then turn 'bad', and B) incentives them to trade these contracts for even worse contracts as Cripsix noted.
I agree, as long as there's cap space you feel like you HAVE to spend it someone, because if not you're playing at a disadvantage. A few other components: the NBA experienced explosive revenue growth that teams might not have been quite ready for, and there was no statistical revolution for a very long time - combine that with the salary cap, and when the 90s rolled around, I think teams really just had no idea what players were worth. Even now they don't really. You know you pay the top 10 players in the league as much as you possibly can, but other than that who really knows how much Rudy Gay is worth? (Just a name off the top of my head)
Individual bad contracts are also amplified since a single star player is much more important to his team's success than a single baseball player (as has been mentioned before). First of all, you have 5 guys on the field and they are on both offense and defense, as opposed to baseball where you split between 9 hitters on offense and 8 or so pitchers on defense. Second of all, you can decide who gets the shots and who has control over the possessions, which you can't do in baseball. So the difference between a single player succeeding or failing can be much bigger in basketball. Also, since a single player can be so important, it makes sense to spend a greater percentage of your budget on one player, which of course also magnifies the effect if it turns into a bad contract.
Also, it is worth noting that there is a salary floor in basketball.
To play devil's advocate, the problem isn't so much that they don't know what Rudy Gay is worth, but that in the framework of the CBA Lebron James and Gay are going to be paid the same.
That there is no way to differentiate in pay between Lebron James, Durant, Rose, Wade and ... Melo and Gay and Gordon is a huge freaking problem.
There should be no max salary limit. Get creative with how teams can knock a % of that salary off their count against the cap.
Is this about him posting stuff on Twitter about Lin during games? I checked his twitter feed, columns, can't figure this one out.
Prutti is right that Lin *never* and I mean NEVER goes to his left. Can't believe this hasn't been picked up on better yet. Makes me wonder if the lockout/compressed schedule is part of it.
That there is no way to differentiate in pay between Lebron James, Durant, Rose, Wade and ... Melo and Gay and Gordon is a huge freaking problem.
There should be no max salary limit. Get creative with how teams can knock a % of that salary off their count against the cap.
Sure, but that's a different question. It doesn't change the fundamental strategy - pay the handful of superstars there are, the top 5 or 10, as much as you possibly can while still putting some sort of relatively competent supporting cast around them. It's what you do with everyone 10 and down that is the trouble. LeBron might actually be worth $30. But you can't pay LeBron $30, so you pay him whatever else. Gay may actually be worth $15. But we have no idea whether he is or not.
To get back to the cap question, I don't think the problem is so much at the top level as it is at the middle level. We all hear about the Gilbert Arenas or Rashard Lewis's, but those contracts are scarce. There aren't that many players making $15 million a year. There are a flipping ton making $5-8 million a year. The real problem contracts for most of the league are all those guys making $7 million who add nothing to the W column yet every team has three of them.
They can't properly value players because they still don't really know who the good players are. In the end they're still paid by some combination of PPG, RPG, APG, height, and narrative, with PPG being the most important and also the most misleading. Someone's got to take the shots. How much is Channing Frye worth? How much is Monta Ellis worth? How much is Raymond Felton worth? We know how much LeBron or Durant or Rose are worth - as much as you can offer. The other guys, we have no idea. If the Warriors let Ellis walk tomorrow how many more games would they lose this year than otherwise? No idea. Would it be worth $11 million? No idea.
Also, piggybacking on LAAFP: Lin/Melo will be fine. The problem, as PJ noted, will be the D. Still, NY has seemingly broadened their horizons hugely: from lottery mess to a good shot at the conference semis. But I am with those who still have MIA and CHI as being on a different level until I see some solid evidence to the contrary.
Prutti is right that Lin *never* and I mean NEVER goes to his left. Can't believe this hasn't been picked up on better yet. Makes me wonder if the lockout/compressed schedule is part of it.
I'm pretty sure everyone knows this by now. It was the main topic of discussion on Twitter during that first Nets game and the Jazz, in that very next game, sent double and triple teams with that specific goal in mind.
and losing the game by 1 after love hit the game-tying and go-ahead FTs with .1 second left on the clock was just a ####### donkey shot to the balls.
/Hubie Brown
He should be back today they're saying. While they might win the game in Boston with him, Saturday's game was their first really bad game without him. 7-3 overall, but 3-2 in this recent stretch. If it costs them HCA, so be it. Wade missed a bunch of games, and there's a chance it happens again. There's plenty of season of season left, and most of the games are in Chicago.
How much longer are we all going to not care that LeBron is putting up the greatest statistical season ever? The gap between LeBron (#1) and D-Wade (#2) in PER is roughly the gap between Wade and Brandan Wright (#27).
And I still think he won't get MVP this year. Stories matter too much, and that fact that Lin is overshadowing everything else is amazing (and part of the reason this is going unnoticed). I still think it's Durant's to lose (from the voter's perspective), and games like last night aren't exactly hurting him.
Is it me, or is Amare looking old? His defense was always bad, but he looks really slow out there. And I don't remember how many shots have been blocked in the low post. He doesn't seem to have the hops any more. Yes, I know he is coming back, but it is worrying.
It's like you're describing Carlos Boozer.
Edit: So according to post 883, Lin could cut his TO by 2/g, STILL set the TO record, and have his team play at a top 5 least TO pace. That seems to say a lot about his usage.
Minus the rebounding and the "hair."
That was an interesting read. I think that given the problems with the dribble, I'd start the half-court trap whenever Lin brings the ball up.
I'd be surprised if this were the case. Generally speaking, guys don't change that much at the NBA level--it's rare for a guy to add a 3-pt shot, or a big to just get good at defending the PnR. Kobe is a good example, in that I think by common acclaim, no one works harder at the game than him. However, he still has the same problems with losing his dribble/getting stripped as he did when he first came up.
The problems with the dribble are most likely here to stay for Lin. I wonder the extent to which defenses will take advantage of it, and to what extent the lockout is helping Lin.
One of the more impressive things about Lin is that everyone knows he only goes right and he's still getting in the lane (so far).
Nash's last three years in Dallas:
TOV%: 15.8%, 13.2%, 17.9%
AST%: 36.0%, 36.3%, 38.3%
Nash's first year in PHO:
TOV%: 20.3%
AST%: 49.2%
Lin's year so far in NYK:
TOV%: 21.6%
AST%: 50.0%
Obviously, this is a very simplified analysis, but Lin's been playing like Steve Nash in D'Antoni's system. I don't know how you would identify the kind of guy who plays better in D'Antoni's offense than in a standard NBA offense, but it seems to exist.
Can the Knicks have a run where they shoot 50% on threes for 5 games and knock out Miami? Yes, but it's not likely.
I agree with this. One or two of the non-Bulls/Heat East playoff teams (PHI, NYK, IND, ORL, ATL, BOS) will be healthy and playing well enough come April that they would have a chance to beat the Bulls or Heat if they totally catch fire or if one of those teams has a key injury. The Knicks now look like they have a real shot to be that team, but I think we need to see a lot more from them before we call them a true contender. There are still far more questions than answers.
The East is still Miami, then Chicago, then everyone else.
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