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Friday, June 01, 2012

OT: NBA Monthly Thread, June 2012

I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: overwrought, acrimonious discussions about having where to put the site’s overwrought, acrimonious discussions.

Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 01, 2012 at 09:58 AM | 2704 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 01, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4145384)
having where to put

Great job by me.
   2. Eddo Posted: June 01, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4145387)
(Re-post from previous thread)

MKG got my co-worker and I thinking: where would Deng go in a hypothetical re-do of the 2004 draft?

NBA draft, 2004, sorted by WS (bb-ref).

Howard remains the obvious #1. After that, candidates for #2 are (alphabetically) Deng, Iguodala, Kevin Martin, Josh Smith, Varejao. I have to think those five guys go 2-6.

After that, it's guys like Al Jefferson, Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris. Good careers, but not on the same level, right?
   3. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: June 01, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4145390)
(re-post)

I think Iguodala goes #2, unless Philly has the 2nd pick. Deng 3, Smith 4, Varejao 5 and Martin 6.

Actually, Okafor still probably goes top 5. That's not a terrible draft.

EDIT: Rafael Araujo would not be drafted. Livingston probably would go high still, if you can undo the knee injury.
   4. Booey Posted: June 01, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4145400)
(repost)

Howard remains the obvious #1. After that, candidates for #2 are (alphabetically) Deng, Iguodala, Kevin Martin, Josh Smith, Varejao. I have to think those five guys go 2-6.

After that, it's guys like Al Jefferson, Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris. Good careers, but not on the same level, right?


Jefferson isn't on the same level as Varejao? I'd have put Varejao in with the lower group.

   5. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: June 01, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4145401)
One thing is for certain: our end-of-thread scrub tradition is not a good sign for MKG
   6. andrewberg Posted: June 01, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4145405)
One thing is for certain: our end-of-thread scrub tradition is not a good sign for MKG

Just go back and ask if anyone could see a lotto team reaching for Meyers Leonard.
   7. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 01, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4145407)
What's the argument for Varejao? Defense / high WS/48 (#2 in class)?
   8. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: June 01, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4145422)
Sorry, my list in #3 was just ranking those 6 as I did that before I clicked on the link. But yes, I think his size would have him go high.

---

@jwquick: Brandon Roy agent Greg Lawrence adds that he's "sure" he and Roy will have discussion about NBA return "soon"
from John Hollinger on Twitter


I'm assuming if this were to happen (and I wouldn't think it's likely to work), he's already gone through the amnesty waiver process and would be an UFA.
   9. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: June 01, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4145431)
Just go back and ask if anyone could see a lotto team reaching for Meyers Leonard.

Thanks, Der K, for ending it on Araujo.
   10. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 01, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4145439)
(tips hat)
   11. Eddo Posted: June 01, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4145445)
Re: Varejao - what Moses said, basically. Size. Though I've probably overrated him.

And I'm not sure I could have told you "Rafael Araujo" was the name of a basketball player until I looked up that draft today.
   12. jmurph Posted: June 01, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4145455)
While we're looking backwards, there was a discussion in (I think) the first NBA thread determining who would come out ahead in a Rondo for Horford deal, straight up. I think I remember most people leaning towards taking Horford, because he's a big man. So two things I'm wondering:

1. Would you all take Rondo now?
2. Do you think we (not we, so much as people) continue to overrate size?
   13. steagles Posted: June 01, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4145458)
And I'm not sure I could have told you "Rafael Araujo" was the name of a basketball player until I looked up that draft today.
that was an 8 player draft, and the sixers had the 9th overall pick. enter araujo.

though, seeing where iguodala has brought the sixers over the last 8 years, i might actually argue that they'd have been better off if iguodala went to toronto.

with the way the iverson era blew up, if that draft had gone differently, maybe it would have been the sixers to have durant and westbrook and harden now.
   14. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 01, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4145472)
Man, you guys really do blame Iguodala for everything... ;)
   15. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 01, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4145474)
Really looking forward to the Celtics getting some "got to extend this series to at least five game" calls tonight.
   16. JJ1986 Posted: June 01, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4145475)
Romain Sato was picked 53rd in that draft. Vassilis Spanoulis (who didn't amount to anything but was traded for Luis Scola) was picked 51st.
   17. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 01, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4145482)
Jefferson isn't on the same level as Varejao? I'd have put Varejao in with the lower group.

I agree with this. Jefferson is in that top group for sure. I'd go Iguodala #2. I'd consider him for #3 with Deng and Smith, with Martin probably #6.

Big Al is certainly a more efficient offensive player than Deng - though obviously Deng makes up (at least) much of that on the defensive end. Would probably depend on what my team needed to choose between those two and Smith.
   18. smileyy Posted: June 01, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4145501)
[16] Is Sato germane to anything in particular? I think he'll end up as one of the best international players in the international-players-in-the-NBA period to never play in the NBA. Which is kind of weird list, because Sato would probably end up as the 5th to 8th guy in a rotation.
   19. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: June 01, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4145567)
I think I'd re-draft 2004 like this:

Howard
Iggy / Smith / Deng
Varejao / Jefferson / Okafor / Harris / Nelson / Martin

I can't justify placing Jefferson in the second tier because it's really difficult to contend in the NBA with a center who isn't good defensively. In contrast to Jefferson, those top 4 guys are probably among the 10 most valuable defenders in the league. Deng, Iggy, and Smith led the #2, #3, and #6 defenses this season, and of course Howard is a 3-time DPOY.
   20. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 01, 2012 at 06:43 PM (#4145571)
i agree on sato - wish we could've seen him play.

looks like the wiz will stick w wittman.
   21. Bitter Mouse Posted: June 01, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4145586)
I refuse to admit Al Jefferson is that good. A big man has to play some defense to be worthwhile. It doesn't even have to be a lot, just a bit of defense. He does have an efficient offense when he wants, but having him around can kill your defense without some other good big men around.
   22. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: June 01, 2012 at 07:35 PM (#4145618)
I refuse to admit Al Jefferson is that good


This seems harsh. After his rookie and sophomore seasons (so the past 6 years), the lowest PER he's recorded was a 19, and he's never had a TS% below .500. Granted, his defensive efficiency hasn't been good over the course of his career, but I don't know how damning that is going forward-- it spiked when he got traded to Minny and dropped significantly this year, his second with Utah. He'll never be a plus defender, but he's solid in the post and has mediocre mobility-- exactly the sort of guy who'll be exposed on a bad defensive team but can fit into a good one with some scheming.

For what it's worth, his ORtg, DRtg and differentials:

04-05 BOS 108 / 104 / 4
05-06 BOS 104 / 103 / 1
06-07 BOS 109 / 103 / 6
07-08 MIN 109 / 108 / 1
08-09 MIN 109 / 108 / 1
09-10 MIN 106 / 108 / -2
10-11 UTA 111 / 108 / 3
11-12 UTA 112 / 103 / 9

I'm not going to go overboard here, and just going off efficiency ratings is a lazy and flawed methodology, but what's there matches the eye test for me. If I were a Jazz fan I'd be looking forward to having him on my team for years to come.
   23. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 01, 2012 at 07:50 PM (#4145624)
From the WeAreUtahJazz blog:
Al played with 5 groups of 5 for over 100 minutes this season. All 5 had a negative adjusted +/- and all 5 were outscored this season. Interestingly, my guess is only 1 of those has a chance to be back next year and that is the closing starting line-up of Harris, Hayward, Carroll, Millsap and Jefferson which was outscored when on the floor an terrible defensively at 115.16 pts per 100 possessions. Link
It's not even so much that Jefferson is a bad defender by himself (without question he is), but that the Jefferson-Millsap is absolutely terrible. As Favors grows up, Utah should look to trade Jefferson; I just don't think a team so defensively weak in the paint can be a legitimate contender.
   24. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: June 01, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4145628)
Well, there's that.
   25. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 01, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4145648)
I just don't think a team so defensively weak in the paint can be a legitimate contender.


Jefferson (and the Jefferson/Millsap pair particularly) represent the other end of the point that often comes up about the higher relative value of good big defense: you can hide a poor defender more easily on the perimeter than in the paint. Jefferson doesn't just do a poor job of stopping his guy, he also makes it hard for a lot of the rest of a defensive scheme to work effectively. Put an all-NBA defender 4/5 next to him and you can minimize that, but there aren't a ton of those guys around, you're in trouble without one, and that limitation handcuffs you in terms of roster construction. In terms of our draft conversation, I think that fact alone is more than enough to keep him down on the third tier, even with his offensive efficiency.
   26. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 01, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4145649)
And it pains me to admit that, because I love watching someone with as varied and skilled a post game as Big Al's.
   27. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 01, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4145664)
I was going to attack Jefferson's value as well, but a variant of 22 and 23 with some more plus/minus stuff mixed in gets at what my points were going to be. For much of his career, he hasn't made his teams appreciably better*. I do think you could argue that this season was an exception (though you don't want him paired with Millsap).

This is a separate issue and borders on letting aesthestics influence value assessments but... it's not just that the lack of defense costs you, is that this kind of player can be really expensive relative to what you get - the opportunity cost is high once you get past the rookie deal.


* well, that's not true - he's been a fair number of bad teams. He hasn't been far above league average more often than not. IMO.

EDIT: just testing the beta site
   28. tshipman Posted: June 01, 2012 at 09:16 PM (#4145683)
The comments about Livingston above were interesting. When we talk about re-drafting, do you mean in the sense that you literally get the exact same career? Or that the knowledge about who they are now would inform their new ranking, but some guys (Livingston for instance) who were wrecked by injury or failed to develop should be considered independently?

I think the first question is pretty boring and mostly just a function of figuring out who's been best. The second question is more interesting to me.

I think it goes:
1. Howard
2. Livingston
3. Deng
4. Iggy
5. Varaejao

I think you could make a pretty decent case for Big Al at 4 or 5, depending on what kind of team you were. On the Spurs, for instance, I think Al Jefferson could have developed differently.
   29. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 01, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4145694)
On the Spurs, he'd be a taller DeJuan Blair.

Livingston definitely lower than 2. He was never that, that great. Was he magically going to learn how to shoot or draw contact? I probably rank Iggy over Deng as well.
   30. Spivey Posted: June 01, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4145797)
It's well established that I hate the Celtics. But every single call seems to be going to Boston this game. The worst was LeBron getting clearly grabbed from behind right in front of a ref watching on a breakaway play and the ref called nothing. That's one of the worst no calls I've ever seen, actually.
   31. Spivey Posted: June 01, 2012 at 09:56 PM (#4145801)
This certainly isn't all reffing though. Miami's role players, especially Chalmers, have been embarrassing. I call out Chalmers in particular because he's clearly the best of the non-Wade/James players. And the Heat had no answer for the lobs to Garnett inside.
   32. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: June 01, 2012 at 10:10 PM (#4145823)
Harris, Hayward, Carroll, Millsap and Jefferson


I couldn't figure out who this was before looking it up and, well, damn, DeMarre Carroll is an NBA player. Who knew.

   33. Spivey Posted: June 01, 2012 at 10:24 PM (#4145833)
Miami needs to learn how to shoot free throws. Seriously. And play hard. And have someone other than LeBron do something offensively.
   34. tshipman Posted: June 01, 2012 at 10:26 PM (#4145834)
Livingston definitely lower than 2. He was never that, that great.


Yeah, okay. I looked at his numbers again. I still put him around 5.


On the Spurs, he'd be a taller DeJuan Blair.


I disagree, but your version is as plausible as mine.

I probably rank Iggy over Deng as well.


I think you could go either way with this. I feel like Deng had more upside at the beginning of his career.
   35. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 01, 2012 at 10:29 PM (#4145836)
I would still draft Jefferson over Varaejao, but I didn't realize how bad his +/- numbers were with Minnesota. He did talk about playing harder on defense this year, which may be why he was merely bad than awful.

I still hope the Jazz trade him, though. Favors needs to start and I like Millsap paired with him more -- this is contingent on acquiring a good wing otherwise keeping Jefferson and going big with Millsap at the 3 might be the best option.
   36. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: June 01, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4145840)
On the Spurs, [Al Jefferson]'d be a taller DeJuan Blair.


I can't decide if this is an insult or a compliment to Jefferson.
   37. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4145870)
It's well established that I hate the Celtics. But every single call seems to be going to Boston this game.
I hate using refs as an excuse, but that invisible foul on James with about 3 minutes left was incredible. I can understand his frustration.
   38. PJ Martinez Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:11 PM (#4145873)
Al Jefferson has the rebounds and the offensive efficiency, but everything else points to him not being a very good player. Every team he's played on has been bad (edit: okay, so Utah made the playoffs this year... still), he's been dumped by a bad team for very little in return, and he has from time to time lost minutes (in fourth quarters, as I recall) to players who don't seem better than him on paper. As noted above, a team that could pair him with the right complementary big man might find a lot of value in him, but I'm not sure he makes other teams better.
   39. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:22 PM (#4145895)
I'm pretty sure I admitted it was crazypants at the time (sorry, too lazy to look it up exactly), but when I made my preseason prediction that Rondo would win the MVP if he could be playoff Rondo all season, this is what I had in mind.
   40. tshipman Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:35 PM (#4145923)
I'm pretty sure I admitted it was crazypants at the time (sorry, too lazy to look it up exactly), but when I made my preseason prediction that Rondo would win the MVP if he could be playoff Rondo all season, this is what I had in mind.


This game's version of Rondo was still worse than LeBron this year.

LeBron was really, really, really good this year.
   41. AROM Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4145931)
It's well established that I hate the Celtics. But every single call seems to be going to Boston this game. The worst was LeBron getting clearly grabbed from behind right in front of a ref watching on a breakaway play and the ref called nothing. That's one of the worst no calls I've ever seen, actually.


Predictable though. It was a Celtics fan who said he would be looking forward to them getting all the calls so the NBA wouldn't have a sweep.

That non-call on the James breakaway actually didn't affect the scoreboard, as if they call it the Heat just take the ball in from the side anyway. But it was especially frustrating because it was so extremely obvious. James slowed down because he knew he was fouled. The Celtic (Pietrus I think) quite clearly wanted to foul.

Pierce getting a 3 point play after taking about 5 hops around his defender hurt worse.

If there's any justice Garnett will get a game 4 suspension for throwing his elbow.
   42. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4145944)
LeBron was really, really, really good this year.


Oh, I'm aware. On merit nobody else was close, or even has the ability to be close. I just love me some playoff Rondo.
   43. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4145948)
If there's any justice Garnett will get a game 4 suspension for throwing his elbow.


You mean for fighting for possession, hands on the ball, after getting fouled twice?

Edit: I don't mean to troll the thread. That was just a particularly bad tech call from my pov.
   44. Spivey Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4145950)
That non-call on the James breakaway actually didn't affect the scoreboard, as if they call it the Heat just take the ball in from the side anyway. But it was especially frustrating because it was so extremely obvious. James slowed down because he knew he was fouled. The Celtic (Pietrus I think) quite clearly wanted to foul.


They were in the bonus, and didn't end up scoring on the possession. But the way LeBron is shooting free throws, maybe they wouldn't have anyways. And I agree - Pietrus was trying to foul, which was ridiculous.
   45. Spivey Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:44 PM (#4145955)
Chalmers clearly flopped and Garnett doesn't deserve nor will he get a suspension.
   46. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 01, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4145984)
Predictable though. It was a Celtics fan who said he would be looking forward to them getting all the calls so the NBA wouldn't have a sweep.

...But it was especially frustrating because it was so extremely obvious. James slowed down because he knew he was fouled. The Celtic (Pietrus I think) quite clearly wanted to foul.
As I hate both teams, I just wanted to see a good game.

The Heat shot 381 more FTs than the Celtics this season. The Celtics took 6 more FTs than the Heat tonight. I call BS, as would anyone who watched the game, but you know what? THIS is why you want home court advantage. Home cookin' exists, and Miami's gotten all sorts of whistles (and non-whistles) this postseason. This is why you want HCA, because this is what happens when you play at home.
   47. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4146019)
If there's any justice Garnett will get a game 4 suspension for throwing his elbow.

And Chalmers will spend next season in the Premier League for that flop. He wasn't event *touched*.

Predictable game 3 win for the Celtics. If you'd asked me prior to game 1 how the series would go (from a Celtics perspective), I would have answered "LLWLL". I'm not getting excited until I see what happens in game 4. At least Rondo didn't dislocate his elbow this year.

Love to see the Laker fans talking about how the Celtics got all the calls tonight, yet denying that the Celtics didn't get calls in game 2. And by "the Laker fans" I mean "Anaheim Rallymonkey of Maryland".

This is why you want HCA, because this is what happens when you play at home.

Sad but true, Hombre. Sad but true.
   48. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4146025)
Love to see the Laker fans talking about how the Celtics got all the calls tonight, yet denying that the Celtics didn't get calls in game 2. And by "the Laker fans" I mean "Anaheim Rallymonkey of Maryland".
Hey! I noted that the Heat got more than their share of whistles! For all intents and purposes, I hate Boston and Miami equally.

... Almost equally.
   49. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4146026)
Primer retweet:

@ZachLowe_SI KG:+27


I understand why so many of you despise him, but man will I miss that guy when he's gone.
   50. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4146029)
This is why you want HCA, because this is what happens when you play at home.


I don't think it happens EVERY time there's a home game, but as we discussed last thread, it does seem to happen all the damn time when a team goes home down 2-0.

Game 3 is always the toughest game to win in a sweep. I should do a study or something, but I'd guess that some ridiculous percentage (50%+) of 5 game series have the lone win in game 3.
   51. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4146038)
I understand why so many of you despise him, but man will I miss that guy when he's gone.
No word on whether or not he'll accept a discount to stay?
   52. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4146039)
Hey, I noted that the Heat got more than their share of whistles. For all intents and purposes, I hate Boston and Miami equally.

I didn't mention you by name, did I? :-)
   53. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4146046)
No word on whether or not he'll accept a discount to stay?

Haven't been any stories locally yet. Still, I would be shocked to see the Celtics in the Conference Finals again next year no matter what. Granting that anything can happen, I am looking at this as the last run of the Pierce/Garnett/Allen/Rondo Celtics.

I do hope he returns anyway.
   54. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4146072)
Joe, isn't that what people said about their run to the finals 2 years ago?
   55. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:43 AM (#4146086)
I don't know where else he'd want to go. I gotta believe he still wants to play, and it's obvious he can still play — he's been the best paint player the last two rounds.

Heh, maybe he signs up with Miami for the ring :)
   56. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 02, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4146089)
Spivey: Heh. It is, yes, I suppose. Actually, if you check the archives of this thread, I thought Cleveland would manhandle them in 2010. I remember posting after game 4 of that series, where the Celtics tied it up at 2 (a Rondo 29/18/13 performance) that I was so happy just to see them put up a fight. If you'd told me they'd be in the thick of a conference finals series against a team that had both Lebron and Wade in two years later, I probably wouldn't have believed you.

In all seriousness, without a Derrick Rose torn ACL, the Celtics are very likely done for the season right now. I suppose crazier things have happened in the NBA than the 2013 Celtics making a run, but I'm certainly not expecting it. After all, as their own GM put it, they are currently in the fifth year of a three year plan.
   57. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: June 02, 2012 at 01:15 AM (#4146117)
I don't think it happens EVERY time there's a home game, but as we discussed last thread, it does seem to happen all the damn time when a team goes home down 2-0.


That's just the NBA way. David Stern has his preferred outcomes, I think that's been obvious for decades and you shouldn't need Tim Donaghy to spell it out for you.
   58. robinred Posted: June 02, 2012 at 01:31 AM (#4146128)
Don't know if it was posted, but Jack Twyman died this week at 78.

Twyman sometimes worried that his wife and family might become upset over the amount of time he devoted to Stokes over 12 years, but his daughter said in an interview that they had come to look forward to Stokes's Sunday visits from the hospital. Twyman's wife of 57 years, the former Carole Frey, became, with her husband, a co-trustee of the Maurice Stokes Foundation, which was set up to defray Stokes's hospital costs but grew to help other needy N.B.A. veterans as well.

The charity basketball tournament they began at Kutsher's Hotel in the Catskills drew stars like Bill Russell, Oscar Robertson and, of course, Chamberlain.

Years after his accident, when Stokes had recovered enough finger flexibility to type, his first message was: "Dear Jack, How can I ever thank you?"



http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/remembering-jack-twyman-nba-saint-173912178.html
   59. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 02, 2012 at 01:43 AM (#4146136)
There was a documentary on Twyman and Stokes on NBA TV a while back. It's an incredible story, and I defy anyone to watch the whole thing with a dry eye.
   60. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 02, 2012 at 02:26 AM (#4146160)
Granting that anything can happen, I am looking at this as the last run of the Pierce/Garnett/Allen/Rondo Celtics.


I saw a tweet a couple days ago (which of course I now can't find, of course) claiming that Jackie MacMullen said, after talking to Doc, that KG will be back and isn't playing anywhere but Boston. I have to imagine that if he doesn't retire, he's in Boston unless Ainge somehow alienates him terribly. If the guy was too loyal to think about leaving Minny until he heard they were shopping him, I imagine he'll stay given half a chance. I don't think he's ready to hang them up either, but who knows.

My guess, based on that and my gut, is that KG does resign, but Ray goes elsewhere for a bit more money than the Celtics offer. I don't know if KG will take a discount, or what other teams will throw at him, but I suspect the C's move forward with the big 4 losing Ray and either adding a free agent piece now or waiting for next offseason. I'm wishcasting Josh Smith onto the team, because he and Rondo played HS ball together and he's said a handful of complementary/envious things about Boston, but it looks like that would require him not getting traded and them signing him as an FA after next year.

It all really revolves around KG, though. Who knows what he has left in the tank, assuming he doesn't retire, but I don't think it's crazy to think Rondo, a healthy MCL'ed Pierce, KG at or near this year's level, Avery Bradley, and another piece could continue to make some noise in the Eastern Conference for a few years yet. They won't be favorites, but I don't think you could count that team out, either. (Any such plan, of course, revolves around the health of two players with a lot of mileage on them, of course, but there's no way around that one. The C's injury woes this year were partly freak luck, and partly father time. I also don't think Jeff Green is any sort of answer here.) If KG can have a Kareemesque twilight, which is of course unlikely, there could be a few competitive years yet in the three year plan.

Even if the wheels come off this offseason, though, I'm going to miss this team when it's gone. I get why people hate them, but I love them for many of the same reasons. Their crazy is loveable when it's your team, and they bring it every night. They compete like hell, and they're really good at forcing opponents to play their game. I really hope their run isn't over just yet.
   61. baudib Posted: June 02, 2012 at 03:00 AM (#4146173)
Ray Allen is the epitome of a classy pro who obviously works very hard and plays hurt. KG and Pierce are almost impossible to like if not on your team (I actually like Pierce, incidentally) but obviously are brilliant players and great competitors.

   62. GregD Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:01 AM (#4146265)
I'm wishcasting Josh Smith onto the team, because he and Rondo played HS ball together and he's said a handful of complementary/envious things about Boston, but it looks like that would require him not getting traded and them signing him as an FA after next year.
I totally forgot that Rondo transferred from Eastern to Oak Hill for his senior year.
   63. AROM Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4146325)
"Love to see the Laker fans talking about how the Celtics got all the calls tonight, yet denying that the Celtics didn't get calls in game 2. And by "the Laker fans" I mean "Anaheim Rallymonkey of Maryland".

I never denied that Rondo was fouled on that play in OT. Before that in game 2, I really don't know who got more undeserved calls. The officiating has been bad and hard to keep track of. I object to anyone pointing to a free throw disparity as evidence of who is getting calls. In a world with perfect refs, Miami would get more free throws because James and Wade are better than anyone at driving to the basket. And unfortunately they'll miss more than their share at the line too.
   64. AROM Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4146331)
Garnett's next deal: I don't know what will happen, but any team with the cap space should be willing to throw him a max deal, if restricting the length to 2-3 years. He's still too dominant to justify any kind of discount. Though of course he can take a discount if he wants. Without scanning the box score my guess is the Celtics were +30 with him last night and -20 without him.
   65. PJ Martinez Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4146350)
+27, to be precise. Which means, what, -17 without him? If so, you pretty much nailed it.

And I agree with #63, too (except for the "unfortunately" in the last sentence).
   66. Backlasher Posted: June 02, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4146434)
RE: KG in this series and Primer RT

John Schuhmann ?@johnschuhmann
The Celtics have outscored the Heat 115-87 in 55 minutes w/ KG on the floor with 4 guards/wings.
Retweeted by John Hollinger



Also, for our KAJ fans, Primer RT

Zach Harper ?@talkhoops
Soft RT @ProHoopsHistory: 1977 postseason, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar averaged 34.5 pts, 18 rebs, 4 asts, 3.5 blks, 1.7 stls, 61% FG over 11 games


RE; The Referees

I am a bit excited that the conversation is turning to officials performance. I am not in a position to directly comment on the officials performance last night. IMHO, grading officials always deals with looking at play-by-play data, but there are some numbers that generally set off red lights for me (albeit not applicable to last nights game).

(1) 70 or more FTs in a non-OT game.

This is a lot of FTs. Its less alarming if a team is playing a "Hack-a-player" strategy.

(2) Greater than 10 FTA difference in a game decided by when the teams are within 6 points when there are 2:00 left.

When the latter condition is reached, you usually find a close game. Again, its less alarming if a team is playing a Hacka strategy.

Neither of these conditions mean a game is poorly called or that there is a call imbalance, it is just an alert to take a closer look at the game. Obviously any review of the game brings in subjective determinations. Moreover, I find that people that perform these reviews are more likely to defer to the officials. That is, when you put yourself in the position of an official, you are more likely to empathize with the officials or set up a Zebra wall on the criticism.

n a world with perfect refs, Miami would get more free throws because James and Wade are better than anyone at driving to the basket.

FWIW, I think that is a good hypothesis to also use to set "red flags" on outcomes. We should expect James and Wade to shoot more free throws than Boston's penetrating players. If you look at the results

In Miami, Wade and James had 50 FTAs. The entire Boston team had 50 FTAs. Rondo and Pierce shot only 18 FTAs.

In Boston, Wade and James shot 5 FTAs. The Celtics shot 26 FTAs. Rondo and Pierce shot 9 FTAs.

Boston's FTAs have been 21, 29 and 26. Miami's have been 23, 47 and 20.

When I see those types of numbers, it indicates to me that Game 2 and Game 3 are the type of games that should be reviewed. An OT game that has an 18 FTA differential sets off a red flag. The huge drop in Wade and James FTs sets off a red flag.

As noted above, the delta always seems to be favoring the home team. Perhaps you should expect some deltas for home teams. That is, if you took the consensus of post game opinions on actual calls or had some super-perfect computer review, you may find that visiting teams foul more, home teams are more agressive to the rim, ect. But the deltas you tend see are alarming. They also seem to be worse in the playoffs and worse when the home team is trailing.

Final question, does synergy allow you to get raw numbers for foul locations?

   67. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4146437)
you may find that visiting teams foul more, home teams are more agressive to the rim, ect.


Isn't part of this a self-fulfilling prophecy, though? You're more likely to drive if you think you'll get the call on a foul. There's a kind of feedback loop. NBA players know that they're more likely to get calls at home, and they play more aggressively at home. I don't know how you resolve that.
   68. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 02, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4146486)
The feedback loop is important. Dwyane Wade wouldn't have shot 46 free throws in the last two games of the 2006 finals if he hadn't decided to constantly drive the lane based on his expectations that it would be unusually likely to lead to free throws.
   69. robinred Posted: June 02, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4146498)
Pierce has two more years on his deal, and IIRC Rondo has 2 or 3 more years on his deal. IMO there is no more chance that Garnett is leaving Boston than there is that Duncan is leaving San Antonio. Allen may be elsewhere next year, though.

As to the ref stuff, people who care should study different crews. Studies on umps have shown some tendencies. Probably it has been done somewhere.

In the case of 0-2 playoff games, as usual, I think there are a lot of factors, rather than just refs. Teams coming home down 2-0 know it is basically an elimination game. My guess is that makes them more aggressive. Teams up 2-0 may subconsciously ease off the throttle a little; both SA and MIA are still the clear faves in these series. Teams down 2-0 will make more adjustments; Brooks's adjustments were a story after Game 3.
   70. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2012 at 09:25 PM (#4146571)
So I guess Ibaka killed Karl Malone and took his jumpshot or something.

Edit: also, Harden is playing like garbage.
   71. Booey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 09:32 PM (#4146575)
NBA players know that they're more likely to get calls at home, and they play more aggressively at home. I don't know how you resolve that.


By not giving the home team more calls, so the players have no reason to expect different results than usual when they drive?
   72. Booey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 09:35 PM (#4146578)
Random Harden question; has he said whether that's a playoff beard that he plans to shave after the season, or is he just awesome like that just because?
   73. baudib Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4146583)
The Beard does all the scoring for Harden.
   74. Ebessan Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4146584)
maybe it would have been the sixers to have durant and westbrook and harden now

It'd probably be closer to Durant, Augustin, and Jennings.
   75. andrewberg Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4146586)
Ibaka does have a nice jumper, but this is crazy. Fun to watch.
   76. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:12 PM (#4146587)
OKC outplayed SA last game. This game they're just outshooting them. Danny Green has sucked. Ibaka and Perkins are going apeshit.
   77. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:13 PM (#4146588)
Nevertheless, I think it is impressive that the Spurs are staying in this game the way OKC is shooting.
   78. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4146589)
GINOBILI!
   79. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4146592)
That was a crazy ending to the 3rd quarter, with a couple of questionable charges. 4th quarter could be the biggest quarter of the series.
   80. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4146594)
I hope that Derek Fisher loses this game for OKC.
   81. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4146596)
It's striking how much better Gary Neal is than Derek Fisher.
   82. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:41 PM (#4146597)
I really like the Leonard/Jackson combo from the Spurs and think they should do it more to nullify Ibaka.
   83. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4146599)
Is there a team left in the playoffs that won't chant MVP for one of their players? That said, Durant has been huge the last few minutes.
   84. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4146601)
Man, Durant is just unguardable (edit:) on those free-throw jumpers.
   85. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:45 PM (#4146602)
Durant has been awesome here in the last few minutes. Just awesome.
   86. baudib Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:47 PM (#4146604)
Durant is good at basketball. IMO.
   87. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:48 PM (#4146605)
Durant is going off. 6-6 plus 1-1 from the line the last 4 minutes. Just completely taken over.
   88. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:50 PM (#4146607)
I do think the Spurs can never have anyone other than Leonard or Jackson on Durant. There was a possession or three there where Ginobili and Parker were guarding him. I realize they were switches, but you can't let that happen 5 times downcourt in a row.
   89. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:51 PM (#4146608)
The Spurs are going to lose a game when all those three pointers don't go down.

They've yet to have a bad game from three point land.
   90. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4146611)
Re: 89

That depends. Their looks from 3 have mostly been wide open all series. They have guys that can and will make 50% of their wide open threes.
   91. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4146612)
Sefalosha is costing himself $25 million by not learning how to make the corner 3.
   92. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4146614)
The Spurs didn't lose this game, OKC won it. This series is living up to the billing so far.

I mostly don't think the Spurs have a bunch of adjustments to make defensively. Ibaka and Perkins played unsustainably well.
   93. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4146615)
That depends. Their looks from 3 have mostly been wide open all series. They have guys that can and will make 50% of their wide open threes.


They're 40/98 (40.8%). Their worst game was in game 1, where they were 8/24.

For the season, OKC was above average on 3p defense (.342 against), and SAS shot the lights out (.393, best in the league). They're taking three more per game than in the regular season.

I just think that San Antonio is going to come up with one of those games where no one can buy a three. They're very dependent on the long ball. Doesn't have to happen.
   94. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:05 PM (#4146619)
Ibaka's performance might have been more impressive than Durant's. 26 points, didn't miss a shot all night.
   95. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4146620)
I agree in the sense that I feel like if Parker is getting shut down by Sefalosha or Westbrook (unlikely), then there won't be open 3s and the shooting percentage will suffer. On the flip side, OKC's bench is mostly terrible and their bigs mostly can't score, tonight withstanding. It's an evenly matched series.
   96. nick swisher hygiene Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4146621)
93--so the Spurs are, what, two makes below what they should be for the series, if you expect 37%? doesn't strike me as decisive. you could just as easily argue game #1 WAS the bad game....
   97. tshipman Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4146624)
93--so the Spurs are, what, two makes below what they should be for the series, if you expect 37%? doesn't strike me as decisive. you could just as easily argue game #1 WAS the bad game....


Well, they made one at the buzzer, so it's more like 4 above. I just think that 3p teams typically have a game where nothing goes in. This year's Spurs team reminds me of all those Suns teams that lost in the playoffs. Typically, those teams lost a game due to not shooting the three. I guess that's why I expect it of the Spurs.
   98. robinred Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4146626)
Like I said before the series, the Spurs are not particularly athletic--that is pretty much their only weakness, along with being mediocre on FTs. One thing that is going on in part because of that is that OKC is not turning the ball over as much as they did during the season (7 in G3 and 12 in G4). Add that to the fact that OKC gets to the line more and shoots them better, and those things are issues for SA. And no, Ibaka and Perkins aren't going to do this again, but OTOH SA shot 50% from the field and 11/23 on 3s, plus Harden and Westbrook were 6/23--and the Spurs lost anyway. So those things tend to even out. So, yeah, I think it is evenly matched, and the "San Antonio Invitational" is over. But the Spurs have HCA, so they will probably win.
   99. Spivey Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:21 PM (#4146628)
Like I said before the series, the Spurs are not particularly athletic--that is pretty much their only weakness, along with being mediocre on FTs. One thing that is going on is in part because of that is that OKC is not turning the ball over as much as they did during the season (7 in G3 and 12 in G4). Add that to the fact that OKC gets to the line more and shoots them better, and those things are issues for SA. And no, Ibaka and Perkins aren't going to do this again, but otoh SA shot 50% from the field and 11/23 on 3s, plus Harden and Westbrook were 6/23--and the Spurs lost anyway. So those things tend to even out.


I agree, pretty much everything evens out, because they're evenly matched teams. Except one thing. Home court. Both teams are outstanding home court teams, and the Spurs have home court.
   100. robinred Posted: June 02, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4146630)
Check the last sentence of my post.
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