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I expect the Heat to win because they're at home on Saturday, but I still give Boston a 40% chance. And I'd give them a 60% chance if they were home. I still think people underrate Boston's core four.
Agreed. It's a really good story.
Most analysis in the NBA involves overreacting to home court advantage and how well a team shot from 3. It's really dumb. At least it's better than football analysis.
If anything, I think they're being significantly overrated. I've beaten this drum all playoffs, though. KG has turned back time and that is very impressive, but Boston's regular season indicated a team that was going to get rolled by Chicago in the second round. Instead, they almost lost to Philadelphia.
They have a very good defensive team, led by one of the better defensive anchors of the past 20 years. They also have an experienced, smart team led by a smart coach.
These characteristics would tend to lend themselves to consistent performance. On the other hand, the outstanding characteristics of the team are that they're old and hobbled, and probably can't maintain top performance level for 96 minutes over any 2-game stretch. At his best, Rondo is as dynamic a player as there is in the league, but he's not a consistent scorer or shooter. Their offense relies heavily on long jumpers and 3s. (I'm not convinced that teams that rely on 3s are inconsistent, but that seems to be the CW.) They don't get to the free-throw line and they're not a good rebounding team.
It doesn't help that they happened to play two of the more maddeningly inconsistent teams in the first two rounds and have already played 20 playoff games, which is probably more than many title winners. The Sixers' greatest attribute seems to be their ability to make you look terrible while simultaneously looking terrible.
******
I'd guess that James will have to be more of a facilitator in Game 7, and if he has a monster game, it'll be more along the lines of 25-15-10 than 45-15-5. I don't think there's any way Boston lets him just go off again. I'd be surprised if Bosh doesn't start, and he or Wade have to get involved early. If James has a big scoring night, he'll probably have to hit some free throws.
? James was 19/26. Not sure what you mean. At any given point, though, yes, LeBron can go 12-14. As long as they're close to the rim, sure.
Yeah, I agree. I can't imagine that he won't face a lot of doubles in the first half.
Some absolutely great names there. With no idea how good college prospects they are, I've seen Shaquille Johnson and Dalonte Dunklin.
If I'm the Celtics I discount what LBJ did Game 6 and keep the same strategy. If LBJ does it again they're screwed, better off to bet against it.
(Yeah, tshipman, I screwed up his shot/attempt numbers. But my point is that he's not going to do that again. And if he does, you tip your cap and head off to play golf.)
Yeah, I don't think you can get shredded like that and make zero adjustments. That seems bizarre. It wasn't like he shot a bunch of three's.
If Miller and Jones are going to miss open-look 3s, they might as well be euthanized.
They're fouls but it's a funny time to start calling them.
Agree on both points.
Does David Stern want the Heat in the finals?
Don't know, but I know if I ran NBA Marketing I would have a fairly strong preference for OKC-Miami. Durant-versus-LeBron is a terrific storyline to sell.
13-7 Boston leading in fouls, including three on Garnett.
And yet the Heat fans angry at the refs...
I like that strategy, but you sure as #### don't want Garnett fouling out doing it. The game's in Miami, the Celtics should be fully aware the officials are going to do them no favors.
Lebron and Wade haven't really put their stamp on the game, but Bosh has been really good for the Heat.
EDIT: Well, except for Bosh, apparently.
Definitely, though only his first foul fits. Garnett's problem was getting called for obvious offensive fouls (and he's still gotten away with quite a few tonight).
Lebron has dished to quite a few wide open teammates but none have been able to hit. I'd say first half biggest difference was Miami could not control the ball and Battier was the only role player contributing. 2nd half Chalmers and even Haslem have contributed.
Edit: And there's LeBron with a LOOONG 3. Falling apart for Celtics.
And, yeah, Bosh has been a difference maker.
Nonsense. I fully expect Miami to take the 1st game in that Series.
Prediction: Miami in 5.
You almost certainly know more about the NBA than I do, so I'm interested to hear your reasoning for that.
As for the Celtics, is this summer is the correct time to blow them up?
Not directed to me, but matchups.
I figure that much, but where's the critical mismatch? The Heat can defend Durant but OKC can't defend James? Neither team can do that but Wade has a better matchup than Westbrook? OKC has no one to contain Bosh down low and/or keep him off the boards? I'm an NBA idiot, I'm genuinely interested to know. Just by glancing around at stats and reading a few things on the internet I didn't arrive at the conclusion that this is a bad matchup for OKC.
I don't think that is really a question.
Assuming this is directed at my bold prediction, yeah, I know that. I'm kinda predicting bold for sure, but also that LBJ plays like he has the past few games.
Really? I thought there was talk Ainge wanted to move him.
Not sure what to do about that. Do the Celtics have any good young(ish) talent besides Rondo? If not I feel like they pretty much should either keep the band together another year or blow it all the way up, trade Rondo for a draft pick haul and write 2013 off. But that's easy for me to sit here on my laptop in Nowhere, Pennsylvania to say. I don't have to try to sell it to the Boston fan base.
You have my sympathy.
It's just a completely different matchup scenario from the Boston series. Boston has a big man who can score (Garnett), and who turned back the clock to 5 years ago Garnett for a lot of the series. Miami's strength is perimeter defense and suddenly LeBron is back where he should be, which is hounding 2s/3s, i.e. Harden or Durant, rather than banging down low with Garnett as when Bosh was out. Wade is a good defensive matchup for Wesbrook. On the flipside, no one on OKC can guard LeBron. He'll probably draw Harden or Ibaka, but if it's Ibaka that means Kendrick Perkins's ghost is guarding Bosh. That's not good.
I'm not saying it's going to be easy, or that Miami is going to route them - just that Miami matches up in a significantly different way with OKC than they do with Boston, and that that matchup plays better to Miami's strengths.
Of course, that's why they play the games - OKC could absolutely win the series - I just think Miami probably will. Though in the end who knows.
Thank you very much.
There's Bass, depending on what you think about him. He's more "average to slightly above average starter" than "potential All-star" though.
I guess it depends on how many years KG wants. If it's two or fewer, they'll probably keep things together. Otherwise, they'll blow it up.
Honestly though, I don't see the point. This year they got extremely lucky with injuries (both opponents and their own) and they weren't really that close to winning it all (I saw them as a grease-smear for OKC). I don't think you trade Rondo, and obviously you won't be able to get anything for Pierce, but this team is pretty much done. I'll say this for them: it was a good last stand.
Well I guess I was about half-right. James had a workmanlike 30 points on 19 shots. Celtics played aggressively against him and he made 12 of 17 free throws. 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 monstrous block on Rondo. A normal "best player in the game" effort, but nothing out of the ordinary. Didn't notice if he had "The Look" or "Ugly Face."
Bosh made a huge difference and Wade turned it on at the end. Battier, Haslem and Chalmers made contributions. The non-Lebron/non-Wade portions of the Heat shot 19-for-32 for 48 points, including 8 3-pointers. The Heat won by 13. In Game 5, the rest of the Heat only had 33, and they lost by 4.
Can't really point to anything Boston did wrong. Pierce and Allen looked great in the first half. Rondo had a triple double. They lost their legs in the fourth and it went downhill quickly.
But this is bullshitting, obviously. I myself prefer only to discuss matchups after the fact--that way I can't be wrong!
Wasn't directed at you. We have a few non-regulars here, and I thought that they might not know and it should be noted if people are tossing out predictions. MIA went 46-20; OKC went 47-19.
Ainge was supposedly looking to move Rondo at the deadline, when Boston was around .500. Things are quite a bit different now. Rose's timetable and status are uncertain; Miami is Miami, but they will have a hard time adding talent with the new CBA. Pierce is under contract for two more years, anyway. But even if they do it, I think they will keep Rondo.
But I do think that, in all sports, from time to time there are owners/GMs/front offices that hold on to an old, once great team too long when blowing it up and bottoming out would be a significantly better medium-term (to say nothing of long term) tactic. Sometimes a team is held together for years but passes the point where it's just too old, too thin, too banged up to be a serious title contender anymore, and at that point it's better to rip the Band-Aid off fast. More pain now, less pain three minutes from now.
The Celtics might be at that point. I think the Steelers probably reached that point last year. The Phillies may be just now reaching that point. The Red Wings are probably going to reach it at the end of next year. In a case like the Celtics--again with the caveat that I don't actually know much about the NBA--it seems to me a very reasonable tactic to trade your aging stars (Garnett and Pierce), clear cap space, trade Rondo (for whom you could get a pretty big haul) and go ahead and bottom out in 2012-2013. With a strong winning tradition, plenty of cap space and a high pick (or two) in the 2013 draft, you could put together another title contender very quickly if you play it right and have a little luck.
I think the absolute worst thing the Celtics can do is play it halfway. Selling the farm and loading up for one last run at it are both better ideas, I'm pretty sure.
Didn't see the barrage of 3s from Bosh and Battier coming. In terms of "narratives", this game will help Bosh's image a lot. It's funny, though--I thought Game 7 in 2010 would solve that for Pau. Hasn't happened.
In terms of "guys getting rings" narratives, I would think that a lot of people (not here necessarily but in the media and maybe in general) like the idea of Battier's getting a ring. Obviously, a lot of people are opposed to Fisher's getting his 6th, and I think a fair number of people (mostly Lakers fans but a few others) will not like the idea of Kendrick Perkins' getting #2.
This series will be one of the few that unites the rooting interest of Boston and Lakers fans, though.
Personally, I felt that Boston needed to retool after 2010, when chasing Kobe around had Allen dragging with his tongue hanging out of his mouth. No offense to Ray, who's an all-time classy guy and cold-blooded assassin, but when you're his age, the deeper you get into the playoffs, the guys you're facing tend to be younger and more athletic. I will mention here that losing Bradley hurt them quite a bit.
It was alluded to in this thread by someone else (who I believe was paraphrasing an analyst): the Celtics were in year 5 of a 3-year plan. This was a really nice run for them but they appear to be moving further away from winning a title.
I think it was actually Ainge who said that.
What's your goal, though? Are you trying to win a championship?
If you just want to print tickets, then keep Garnett, hope you don't get injuries and you'll manage to make it to the first or second round. Is that a success?
(these are serious questions. I struggle with understanding what the "correct" FO decision is in hoops, given that far fewer teams have a chance to win it all.)
Avery Bradley certainly seems to be turning into a very nice young player, excellent defense and a fast developing offensive game. Steimsma also has a chance to become a solid role player; his defense improved dramatically as the year went on.
As far as the C's getting lucky with injuries, what Celtics team were you watching? The Celtics that I was watching had two important bench players out with heart ailments, their starting SG dealing with bone spurs in his ankle, their sixth man's shoulder wouldn't stay in it's socket, and both Pierce and Pietrus dealing with knee ailments. That's lucky?
I could care less about Perkins and Fish ain't even a pimple on Robert Horry's ass.
Yes.
The Celtics had one guy out due to injury: Avery Bradley. Everyone else was more or less healthy. KG played like it was 2008, and their opponents had the following guys injured: Derrick Rose, Al Horford, Josh Smith, Chris Bosh, etc.
I'm not certain who all the guys you're talking about are. I am certain that the Celtics had significantly greater injury luck than their opponents, given the age differentials. They probably don't make it out of the first round if Horford/Smith were healthy for that whole series.
Wade is still a phenomenal player obviously, but in Year 1 of the Super Friends, LeBron and Bosh took a backseat and basically acted as if it was Wade's team. This year, LeBron is averaging 31/10 or so, which we've basically never seen from a non-big before, and you never really get the feeling that Wade is going to win a game all by himself.
Wade is 30, and given his style of play and the fact that he's been injury prone throughout his career, it's hard to envision still going strong at this level at age 32+. He's also not as good a Pippen as Pippen.
Wasn't thinking about you when I wrote that. 3 or 4 guys here have mentioned Fisher, however, and I have seen it brought up elsewhere. Fisher will of course be a media angle in the series, particularly with Boston out and the Perkins vs. his old buddies angle gone. I expect that Magic Johnson will have a little face time with Fisher on one of the halftime features.
Oh yeah, I know. I just find it amusing how Lakers/Celtics fans are obsessed over these guys. I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure the rest of us won't lose any sleep over those guys winning rings.
Jeff Green and Chris Wilcox.
I don't think anyone is "obsessed" or saying you "are going to lose any sleep over it." Like I pointed out, it has been brought up here--not by me until now--a few times.
As I say above, the media will talk about them, particularly with ABC taking over the coverage. There will no doubt be a lot of secondary stuff about Perkins and Fisher bringing championship grittiness to the young Thunder, as guys who have been there before etc. And as discussed on the recent pages, inaccurate or disproportionate media narratives--like, say, those about LeBron James--tend to be an issue for people in the internet age, depending on how they feel about the players in question.
James is of course an infinitely bigger story than Fisher and Perkins, but "Clutchy McClutch" and "Veteran Toughness" storylines will always find some critics--especially when they are tied to the Lakers and the Celtics.
From a basketball standpoint, Fish is a non-entity. If anything, any minutes he spends on the court is a big negative. I realize the story around the Thunder is that he's calmed Westbrook down, but that's not really evident in the stats or to the eye (in the games I've seen). He looks like the same player as he was last year, although I think he's probably better defensively. A quick stat check notes that his assists are way down this year.
Perkins is a viable contributor.
Maybe he doesn't want to be the second banana (can he really be that dumb?), maybe he's just hurt, I dunno but it's weird. It would have been real interesting to see what the reaction would have been if LeBron had had a good Game 7 but Miami lost. The obvious thing would be to say LBJ would take the blame anyway, but maybe not. I think Wade's Teflon has taken a beating that perhaps would have manifested itself at that point.
Bradley.
BRADLEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Pretty much, and that, along with his history and personality, is precisely why it will annoy quite a few people (in general) a little bit--which is all I was trying to say--if he gets another ring. The media won't treat it like they will James Jones and Mike Miller getting one if Miami wins, particularly if Fisher hits a couple of big shots along the way, as he often has.
Pruiti IIRC (it may have been another guy) made a good point about his corner 3 late in Game 6 of the SA series, pointing out that Fisher is 18/40 on those shots this year, or as Pruiti put it, 135 points per 100 possessions. So although intuitively getting the ball into Fisher's hands on a late-game possession against OKC seems like a win for the D, in that case, it may not always be.
As to Perkins, I have stuck up for him as a player a few times, as I feel he helps more than his stats show in spite of the TOVs and other offensive limitations. But there have been a fair number of "Perkins pretty much sucks" and "I don't like him" posts along the long road of the thread, and someone brought him up just a page or two ago, in addition to FTO's post about him.
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