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Friday, June 01, 2012

OT: NBA Monthly Thread, June 2012

I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: overwrought, acrimonious discussions about having where to put the site’s overwrought, acrimonious discussions.

Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 01, 2012 at 09:58 AM | 2704 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   2401. andrewberg Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4166723)
For Orlando's sake, I hope they can get more than that.


Everything I have seen has Houston offering Morris and Montiejunas to Orlando, too. I doubt that changes your opinion much.
   2402. Joel W Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4166739)
@2400,

Misread. Thanks.

@2401 et al,

Why do people think Orlando can get that big of a haul? Brooklyn is the only team (it feels really cool to write that), and maybe LA, for whom it makes sense to pay a high price because he'll definitely resign. Everywhere else, you're jsut getting a one-year contract.
   2403. JC in DC Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4166744)
I'm not thinking they can get a big haul, I'm just stating my anticipated disappointment for their fans and team when they get a return like that for someone as great as Howard.
   2404. smileyy Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4166747)
I don't think there's a non-disappointing haul available for Howard.
   2405. JC in DC Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4166753)
Yeah, but how awful will it be when Orlando's staring at, say, Andre Drummond and Kendall Marshall and Tyreke Evans as their haul for Howard?
   2406. andrewberg Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4166763)
Yeah, but how awful will it be when Orlando's staring at, say, Andre Drummond and Kendall Marshall and Tyreke Evans as their haul for Howard?


That's how it goes I guess. The celebrated haul for Melo is now basically an overpriced Wilson Chandler and Gallo. The hauls for Garnett and Gasol have been killed here over and over. The haul for CP3 depends almost totally on Eric Gordon's health. The haul for Williams depends on Favors developing (though I like his chances).
   2407. Joel W Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4166771)
It's mostly just a reminder that contracts are traded, not players. It's not as though a team trying to acquire Kevin Durant right now wouldn't have to pay out their ass to get him (it's mostly just impossible to do this). It's that teams are trading for a contract and the privilege of paying the player more than they would have to in free agency. These players are worth it because they're worth so much more than the max contract, even at inflated prices, but still.
   2408. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4166772)
And, to be clear, it's a 2nd rounder. (hence Joel saying essentially)
   2409. smileyy Posted: June 26, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4166780)
The celebrated haul for Melo is now basically an overpriced Wilson Chandler and Gallo.


You forgot to include "Not Carmelo Anthony" in there.
   2410. Jimmy P Posted: June 26, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4166838)
That's how it goes I guess. The celebrated haul for Melo is now basically an overpriced Wilson Chandler and Gallo. The hauls for Garnett and Gasol have been killed here over and over. The haul for CP3 depends almost totally on Eric Gordon's health. The haul for Williams depends on Favors developing (though I like his chances).

Right. When you trade away someone that good, you're getting worse. And nothing's going to change that.

Dragic is a free agent, and he will have suitors.
   2411. AROM Posted: June 26, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4166865)
The celebrated haul for Melo is now basically an overpriced Wilson Chandler and Gallo.


They also get to not pay Melo a max contract. He's good, but he's not in the category of stars who are underpaid simply by virtue of a ceiling on the salary you can pay. I think I could do better taking 18 million and splitting it among free agents than paying that much to Carmelo.

Also, looks like the Nuggets have the Knick's 2014 first rounder. That likely will be in the 15-25 range, where Denver can pick up an interesting player. But if New York has a bad luck year with a lot of injuries, that could turn into a huge plus for Denver.

Denver was 32-25 before the trade and 18-7 after, so they came out just fine on the court as well.

   2412. Jimmy P Posted: June 26, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4166877)
I think I could do better taking 18 million and splitting it among free agents than paying that much to Carmelo.

It matters how you allocate that. If you overpay a few of them, like they did with Wilson Chandler, it doesn't look as good.
   2413. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 26, 2012 at 08:55 PM (#4167286)
Ben Gordon + a conditional first for maggette
Pick is first lotto protected, then top 8, top 1, unprotected
Mags deal has 1/10.9 left, Gordon has 2/25.6
   2414. smileyy Posted: June 26, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4167319)
   2415. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: June 26, 2012 at 09:45 PM (#4167343)
Ben Gordon + a conditional first for maggette
Pick is first lotto protected, then top 8, top 1, unprotected
Mags deal has 1/10.9 left, Gordon has 2/25.6


Should I be happy about this if I'm a Pistons fan? Is it worth giving up a first round pick just to have an expiring contract this year instead of next year?
   2416. andrewberg Posted: June 26, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4167383)
It's a gamble. If mj doesn't mind paying, that pick has about a 50% chance of being a really good asset.
   2417. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 27, 2012 at 10:05 AM (#4167543)
Hoopsanalyst's top 60 for the draft is up. Per usual, I don't agree with him (Andrew Nicholson #3!, Zeller and Rivers 51!/52!), but his thinking is worth checking out.
   2418. tshipman Posted: June 27, 2012 at 10:22 AM (#4167563)
I really don't see Dion Wiaters at 2. I mean, granted, the whole thing about this draft is that there isn't a ton of difference between 2 and 5 or so.

If you want a guard, I don't see how you can justify Wiaters over Beal. Beal has more steals/blocks, is a better rebounder and is quite a bit younger. I don't view 3% difference in their 3p shooting as significant.

Double obviously, I don't see how you explicitly value upside potential and then draft Drummond 10. My client deserves better in your mock draft, Hoops Analyst!
   2419. JJ1986 Posted: June 27, 2012 at 10:22 AM (#4167564)
I think he's generally good at identifying guys who can be drafted in the 15-25 range and will be better than most players drafted there. (And looking over his stuff, he was very high on Jeremy Lin). I wouldn't take his word on any of the top prospects.
   2420. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 27, 2012 at 10:57 AM (#4167598)
I thought his picking Beal over Robinson was even stranger/inconsistent, given his other comments.

tshipman, I suspect you're not looking at per minute figures - Beal played 34.2 mpg, Waiters 24.1. Here are their per 40 pace adjusted numbers:

DW 21.2 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.2 ast, 3.0 stl, 2.2 to, 0.5 blk, 3.1 pf, 5.9-11.1 52.9% 2PT, 1.9-5.1 36.3% 3PT, 3.9-5.4 72.9% FT
BB 17.4 pts, 7.9 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.6 stl, 2.5 to, 1.0 blk, 2.4 pf, 3.6-6.6 54.1% 2PT, 2.0-5.9 33.9% 3PT, 4.2-5.5 76.9% FT
Beal is a year and a half younger, a bit over an inch taller and 20 pounds lighter. Waiters is a stronger defender, even apart from the steals. (Note: I don't like the way some stat-y people use steal and block numbers as a measure of defense as opposed to *aspects* of defense and usable athleticism.

Waiters was the first guy I pegged as a sleeper when I started thinking about the draft a few months back - like the mix of steals, atr, threes and free throws, and position defense. He's somewhere in my top five and I can understand taking him over Beal (who I ultimately favor). Not keen on the low minute totals, both as it reduces my confidence in his numbers and, more obviously, why not play this guy more?

****

Pretty sure I've said this before, but my own internal draft board logic has parallels with Ed's - so I can see where he's coming from.
   2421. tshipman Posted: June 27, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4167616)
tshipman, I suspect you're not looking at per minute figures - Beal played 34.2 mpg, Waiters 24.1. Here are their per 40 pace adjusted numbers:


I was looking at both. I think that per minute figures are dangerous. It's easier to go hard for 24 minutes than 34.

I really like blocks from guards, because it shows elite athleticism in use. Similarly, plus rebounding numbers are really positive signss for me. It's my suspicion that DW is too small to play defense effectively at the 2, so defense at the college level doesn't mean a lot to me.

I don't think it's controversial that Beal is a much better prospect than Wiaters. Wiaters is an interesting gamble at 15 or later. He's not lottery material, and certainly not #2.
   2422. Jimmy P Posted: June 27, 2012 at 11:17 AM (#4167622)
Should I be happy about this if I'm a Pistons fan? Is it worth giving up a first round pick just to have an expiring contract this year instead of next year?

It matters how much improvement they show. If they can get something good in the draft, they may be able to spin the expiring for something. Or just let it expire and amnesty Villanueva, and then have a ton of cap space. Which is actually more valuable in a trade with teams looking to shed players to avoid the tax. No star free agent is looking at the cap space in Detroit and salivating.
   2423. andrewberg Posted: June 27, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4167642)
Hoopsanalyst's top 60 for the draft is up. Per usual, I don't agree with him (Andrew Nicholson #3!, Zeller and Rivers 51!/52!), but his thinking is worth checking out.


There is some interesting analysis in his rankings, but I don't like this bit of reductivist self-aggrandizement:

What Barnes, Jones III, Rivers and some others have going in their favor is they’re going to be drafted high and will get every opportunity to succeed or fail. Most players won’t be that fortunate.


It's like saying, "if I'm wrong, it's not my method that is responsible, it's other people's biases." If he is confident in his method, he doesn't need to hedge like that.
   2424. Jimmy P Posted: June 27, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4167648)
Broussard is saying that Denver is talking with everyone about trading. Right now it's centering around Wilson Chandler for the Warriors #7 pick. If I'm Denver, I run to do this deal.
   2425. JJ1986 Posted: June 27, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4167659)
Broussard is saying that Denver is talking with everyone about trading. Right now it's centering around Wilson Chandler for the Warriors #7 pick. If I'm Denver, I run to do this deal.


Is that trade possible? GS doesn't have the cap space

Note: ESPN's NBA trade machine appears to have been updated for the new year.
   2426. Jimmy P Posted: June 27, 2012 at 11:55 AM (#4167664)
Is that trade possible? GS doesn't have the cap space


I think he said Dorrell Wright has to move back to Denver.

What's GS's motivation? How many wings do they need?
   2427. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: June 27, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4167740)
What's GS's motivation? How many wings do they need?


Yeah, this is an absurdly pointless/bad transaction for the W's even by their lofty standards.
   2428. baudib Posted: June 27, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4167801)
Golden State thought they meant Tyson Chandler?
   2429. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 27, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4167859)
RIP Pat (not Terry) Cummings.
MarShon Brooks to compete in the annual Nathan's thing.

**

Pelton's article on prospective draftees and their closest comps is up (making mention of the MKG ~= Deng/Harris thing). The following sums up my feeling on this draft:

#2 Robinson ===> Glen Davis (with the Morris twins also in his top 4 comps)
Of the guys ranked 2-15, the best of the comps in the league might be DeAndre Jordan (for Leonard). Yuck.
   2430. JJ1986 Posted: June 27, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4167867)
Pelton's article on prospective draftees and their closest comps is up (making mention of the MKG ~= Deng/Harris thing).


This article is just one of the things that are quickly pushing me towards thinking Terrence Jones might be the #2 guy in the draft.
   2431. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 27, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4167884)
I still don't have one (a #2 guy). I think Robinson is more than a Jordan Hill type, but he makes me nervous, and not just because I'm aware that I habitually overrate Kansas big men. Really, what is he good (not average) at beside rebounding, perhaps the easiest skill to pick up on the cheap? Man-on defense, perhaps.

I'm not sold on Jones' motor, but I definitely think that he ought to go higher than where he's slotting based solely on talent (the PF glut is hurting him).
   2432. JJ1986 Posted: June 27, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4167925)
From Adrian Wojnarowski:

Dalembert and the 14th pick go the Bucks for the 12th pick, Jon Brockman, Jon Leurer and Brockman


The second Brockman is supposed to be Shaun Livingston.
   2433. AROM Posted: June 27, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4167980)
The second Brockman is supposed to be Shaun Livingston.

I was hoping it was Kent.
   2434. Spivey Posted: June 27, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4168002)
Coming into the college season, wasn't this year supposed to be a loaded draft? Kawhi Leonard strikes me as having more upside than MKG, and he was a mid-teens pick.
   2435. Spivey Posted: June 27, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4168004)
I'd take Robinson over Jones. Plays more physical, has shown the ability to score and rebound big, has shown the ability to have an offense run through him, and he's significantly more athletic than Jones . I liked Jones' game in college, but he always seemed to move a little awkward to me, and I don't think that's just because he's a lefty. Edit: Actually, he may not be significantly more athletic, I mis-read some numbers from draft express. I'd still take Robinson just the same though.
   2436. steagles Posted: June 27, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4168019)
the sixers pick at 15.

the way things look right now, all of the guards and wings will be off the board by then. waiters, rivers, lillard, ross, and lamb have all risen into the 5-12 range now, which leaves only the 2nd tier of PFs as likely to be on the board. i'm not a big perry jones fan and i'm not a big arnett moultrie fan, and though i am a huge terrence jones fan and a huge jared sullinger fan, my enthusiasm for either of them has been tempered by my quickly developing mancrush on mike scott, out of UVA.


before this process started, sullinger was #1 on the list of players whose addition i thought would make the biggest impact for the sixers. but as i've gotten familiar with scott, i think he does about 90% of what sullinger does, except he does it as a 23 year old second round pick. he bangs in the post, he has a consistent jump shot, he rebounds, he gets to the FT line. he doesn't have great size, and he's overaged, and he's not an explosive defender, but i think he's going to come into the league and immediate be a capable rotation player. his ceiling isn't necessarily as a 20 and 12 guy (which is what i think a healthy, peak sullinger could do), but maybe 16 and 8, and if that's your 3rd or 4th best player, i think you'd be pretty happy with that.



right now, i think my best case scenario (assuming there's no iguodala trade) is something like this:
15: jeremy lamb--his length is jaw dropping, and the fact that he hit 60% of his 2pt FGAs as a sophomore has me drooling. i don't think he's a star, but i think he's a really solid #2.
45: mike scott
54: tu holloway--i'm still on his bandwagon. he's tough, he's physical, he scores, he gets to the FT line.


at 15, i think my order of preference is something like this:
lamb
terrence jones
sullinger/ross/henson
rivers/leonard/teague
moultrie/harkless
marshall

perry jones--i really do not want perry jones.


and guys that i like in the 2nd round:
festus ezeli
mike scott
kyle o'quinn
hollis thompson
alex young
orlando johnson
darius johnson-odom
j'covan brown
tu holloway
   2437. Jimmy P Posted: June 27, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4168047)
Lots of talk about moving up to grab Bradley Beal. Teams interested besides top 4 picks? OKC, Denver, San Antonio, Atlanta
   2438. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: June 27, 2012 at 07:53 PM (#4168153)
It's Daryl Morey's video game world and we're all living in it.
   2439. smileyy Posted: June 27, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4168159)
54: tu holloway--i'm still on his bandwagon. he's tough, he's physical, he scores, he gets to the FT line.


The STEAGLES/smileyy lovefest might get a little too intense if Holloway gets drafted by the Sixers and sticks. I think Holloway will make a very good backup PG as long as he's not a primary offensive option. He's had trouble creating shots or getting to the line against longer college competition. OTOH, with his feet set, he's a very good 3P shooter -- his college numbers are weighed down by shots taken off the dribble.
   2440. AROM Posted: June 27, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4168174)
I don't want Holloway on the Sixers, just because having Tu Holloway and Jrue Holiday is too confusing.
   2441. steagles Posted: June 27, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4168209)
I don't want Holloway on the Sixers, just because having Tu Holloway and Jrue Holiday is too confusing.
and they play the same position, too. how wonderful would that be?
   2442. AROM Posted: June 27, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4168220)
On second thought, maybe the Sixers should do that, play them together in small lineups, and confuse their opponents. "Jrue Holiday wide open for three! and it's good!" postgame: "Rajon, what happened on that play? Well, I thought Doc told me to guard Tu. But who can hear over this crowd? He wanted me on Jrue."
   2443. baudib Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4168254)
I think I'd like Sullinger or Ross. Really hard to say for the Sixers because it all depends on who's staying and who's going. They should really just take the best player available regardless of position.

Like STEAGLES and Allen Iverson, I like what Lou Williams does for the Sixers, even if that puts us in a minority among Sixers fans. I understand that if he gets a big offer, you let him go, because it's tough to pay him and Thad big bucks to come off the bench. On the other hand, production is production.
   2444. robinred Posted: June 28, 2012 at 02:47 AM (#4168293)
On Howard, my opinion is still the same as it was a year ago: I think he wants to play with Paul or Williams on a team that has enough other guys or enough cap space to get other guys fast enough to be able to go toe/toe with OKC and MIA within a year, and that is more important to him than where--hence the the back-and-forth,etc. I think he is not in Brooklyn already because their roster (which no longer includes Williams, officially) is so weak.

Maybe Morey thinks that if he gets Howard, Williams will go to Dallas, and Houston can then get Paul and Howard to both sign in July 2013. Martin's deal is expiring, and they could amnesty Scola.

Rumor mill says that Atlanta wants to trade Josh Smith here to the Lakers for Pau Gasol. Both Sund and Ferry will be in the Hawks' "war room" tomorrow.
   2445. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: June 28, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4168435)
Maybe Morey thinks that if he gets Howard, Williams will go to Dallas, and Houston can then get Paul and Howard to both sign in July 2013. Martin's deal is expiring, and they could amnesty Scola.

Never say never, but Howard, Paul and Williams will never be on the Rockets at the same time. Especially if getting Howard is dependent on getting Howard.
   2446. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: June 28, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4168444)
Coming into the college season, wasn't this year supposed to be a loaded draft? Kawhi Leonard strikes me as having more upside than MKG, and he was a mid-teens pick.

I don't think Leonard has more upside than MKG, even after he was better this past season that people expected.
   2447. Spivey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4168475)
Never say never, but Howard, Paul and Williams will never be on the Rockets at the same time. Especially if getting Howard is dependent on getting Howard.

This post confuses me. I think robinred was saying they'd get 2 of them, not all 3. And the last sentence is also confusing. In any event, I agree with what I think you're saying. Houston hasn't been particularly relevant for a while, and I don't see a good reason why it would be considered a destination for a team up. This also requires a lot of things falling into place at the right time.
   2448. Jimmy P Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4168489)
Houston hasn't been particularly relevant for a while, and I don't see a good reason why it would be considered a destination for a team up. This also requires a lot of things falling into place at the right time

It's a destination for numerous reasons. First, it's in Texas which means no taxes. Second, it's a huge city, it really is. Third, it's a warm weather city and I'm sure that a good amount of players live in the area. I know that there's a lot of players who train there in the offseason.

Woj is reporting that the Celts are trying to move into late lottery.
   2449. andrewberg Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4168513)
It's a destination for numerous reasons. First, it's in Texas which means no taxes. Second, it's a huge city, it really is. Third, it's a warm weather city and I'm sure that a good amount of players live in the area. I know that there's a lot of players who train there in the offseason.


The anomaly to me has been that Houston has struggled the last several years. They have drafted and managed the cap situation relatively well. I suppose it is a freak occurrence to lose two franchise-ish players to career-altering injuries at the same time, and also to lose out on Gasol/Nene due to league office veto, but it surprises me nonetheless. If this process ends with them fielding a team featuring Dragic-Martin-Gay-Smith-X, I wouldn't be shocked, and that could be a pretty dangerous team, especially if Mr. X can play some defense inside.
   2450. Jimmy P Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4168527)
The anomaly to me has been that Houston has struggled the last several years.

This goes back to team construction. Getting good role players is tough, but not near as important as getting the star. Houston's a team with great role players and no stars. It's the main reason why I thought (and still think) all the talk of Miami making a poor decision is just laughable. Miami has 2 of the toughest assets to acquire in all of the NBA - they have two top 25 players.
   2451. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:46 AM (#4168533)
I suppose it is a freak occurrence to lose two franchise-ish players to career-altering injuries at the same time, and also to lose out on Gasol/Nene due to league office veto, but it surprises me nonetheless.

That sums it up, doesn't it? I'm not normally inclined to give a pass but - imo - Morey and co. have earned one.
   2452. steagles Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4168534)
Coming into the college season, wasn't this year supposed to be a loaded draft? Kawhi Leonard strikes me as having more upside than MKG, and he was a mid-teens pick.

I don't think Leonard has more upside than MKG, even after he was better this past season that people expected.

i think MKG is more athletic and probably a better ball handler, but leonard is stronger and a more versatile defender, and he's already taken a really big step forward by improving his 3pt shooting.

personally, i had leonard going to cleveland last year at #4 overall, so i don't exactly think it's fair to denigrate MKG by comparing him to a player that just happened to dropfurther than anyone thought he'd possibly drop.
   2453. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4168545)
I think MKG has more upside than Leonard (and I like Leonard) - also a lower floor.
One thing that makes evaluating MKG tricky is in just how stacked that roster was - there was no need to optimize what they do to benefit him, particularly given his willingness to defer.
   2454. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4168554)
Houston hasn't been particularly relevant for a while, and I don't see a good reason why it would be considered a destination for a team up. This also requires a lot of things falling into place at the right time


It's a destination for numerous reasons. First, it's in Texas which means no taxes. Second, it's a huge city, it really is. Third, it's a warm weather city and I'm sure that a good amount of players live in the area. I know that there's a lot of players who train there in the offseason.


It's been a destination for big name ring chasing before, when Barkley joined Olajuwon and Drexler in 1996, or 3 years later when Pippen replaced Clyde. Throw in McGrady, Yao, and maybe even Steve Francis, and the Rockets have had as many big names in the last 15-20 years as all but a few teams. I've never thought of them as one of the undesireable cities that would have a hard time getting or keeping stars.
   2455. cmd600 Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4168558)
which means no taxes


I know the no taxes thing looks fantastic on the surface, but really how much of a boon is it? You still get taxed for all your road games, and it's not like Texas isn't making up for this with tax dollars somewhere else. If you buy end up buying property fit for a NBA star in the Houston area, you aren't going to save any money on taxes.
   2456. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4168575)
You still get taxed for all your road games,


Not the ones in Dallas and San Antonio. :)
   2457. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4168579)
I really don't understand why Bill Simmons is making such a big deal out of the following things.

A) "Why would you draft a 21-year-old when you can draft a 19-year-old? I mean, look at Austin Rivers! He's like that other guy, but he's 19! Maybe he'll get even better!" Did I miss a study that found that basketball players peak at the age of 21? Or do NBA teams now sign their draft picks to 10-year contracts, so drafting a guy who isn't going to be mature enough to play in the NBA until he's been in the league for two years has become a good idea?

B) Why is MKG getting credit for "His teams win. All he has done is win. He's a winner!" He was on the same high school team as Kyrie Irving. He was on the same college team as Anthony Davis. Has anyone ever been the #2 overall draft pick while having less experience as the best player on his own team?
   2458. Jimmy P Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4168582)
Not the ones in Dallas and San Antonio. :)


Or Orlando or Miami.

It's a big one. That's 50 some games with no state income tax. At the highest possible rate. It's probably an extra million on a max deal.
   2459. Jimmy P Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4168583)
Has anyone ever been the #2 overall draft pick while having less experience as the best player on his own team?

Marvin Williams
   2460. Manny Coon Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:20 PM (#4168590)
Coming into the college season, wasn't this year supposed to be a loaded draft? Kawhi Leonard strikes me as having more upside than MKG, and he was a mid-teens pick.


Kawhi Leonard should have gone higher and some mocks did have him going higher (just looking around quickly online he was 9th on nbadraft.net and couple other sites and as high as 6th on sporting news). Hollinger had him 5th on his board (he seems be missing from the hoopsanalyst stuff). I think if he had gone to a higher profile school like Kentucky he would been drafted higher.
   2461. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4168603)
Not the ones in Dallas and San Antonio. :)

Or Orlando or Miami.

It's a big one. That's 50 some games with no state income tax. At the highest possible rate. It's probably an extra million on a max deal.


Nickpicking, but it's not quite 50. That'd be 45-47, depending on whether the schedule had them play the Mavs and Spurs twice on the road or only once.

Unless you were including playoff games, in which case you can ignore this entire post. :)
   2462. andrewberg Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4168612)
Nickpicking, but it's not quite 50. That'd be 45-47, depending on whether the schedule had them play the Mavs and Spurs twice on the road or only once.


Unless you count the games played in Washington state, which brings the total to 45-47.
   2463. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4168616)
2462 made me laugh. Good call, berg!

Sorry Sonics fans...
   2464. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4168620)
When LeBron and Bosh signed their "max" deals in Miami, both actually signed for slightly less than max but the take home pay after taking into account state income taxes was higher than their take home would have been in any non-state income tax state (or was for their old teams). I know I linked to that analysis sometime after the signings, so it's definitely a factor to a player with a smart tax/financial planning guy.
   2465. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 28, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4168637)
Hoopsanalyst on Kahwi:
Leonard looks nothing like a top prospect to me at either forward position. His only real skill is that he’s an excellent rebounder, pulling in 13 per 40 minutes. The downside of his resume is he hit less than 50% of 2-pointers and less than 30% of 3-pointers. He’s also a poor shotblocker, despite a 7’3”wingspan. Since he can pass the ball better than most forwards and will only turn 20 a week after the draft, I can see where some might look at him and envision his upside being a poor man’s Scottie Pippen. But he’s a long way from becoming that or any kind of useful NBA player. Such long-term projections rarely pay off.

He (and Jimmer) were intentionally left off his top 30.

I've got to the think most NBA players take the tax situation into account when they sign (provided that they have strong options).
   2466. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: June 28, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4168643)
Lots of reports the Bulls want to draft Tyshwan Taylor with their pick. That comes out of LF, as they've mostly been linked to guys like Jenkins, Barton or Wroten (who'll probably be gone by then). Or one of the Lambs if they fell.
   2467. baudib Posted: June 28, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4168679)
#2457

A) "Why would you draft a 21-year-old when you can draft a 19-year-old? I mean, look at Austin Rivers! He's like that other guy, but he's 19! Maybe he'll get even better!" Did I miss a study that found that basketball players peak at the age of 21? Or do NBA teams now sign their draft picks to 10-year contracts, so drafting a guy who isn't going to be mature enough to play in the NBA until he's been in the league for two years has become a good idea?


Is this Simmons quoting someone, or is only the quote Simmons? You'd expect a 19-year-old to have more upside of a 21-year-old of the same ability. There are actually plenty of basketball players who peak at 21-22.
   2468. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 28, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4168701)
He's making fun of Simmons, wrongly I think. Simmons was talking to Ford who likes Lillard, dislikes Rivers.
   2469. Tripon Posted: June 28, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4168723)
Boy, Jimmer Ferddette.
   2470. JJ1986 Posted: June 28, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4168747)
Simmons really should be mocked for this though:

I'm judging every lottery pick in this draft by one question: "Could you have played in that insanely athletic 2012 Finals I just watched?"


Derek Fisher and Mike Miller just got big minutes in the finals.
   2471. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: June 28, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4168758)
[2470] Yeah, that was pretty dumb. You should have heard him apply this logic during the podcast. Ugh.
   2472. cmd600 Posted: June 28, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4168770)
It's probably an extra million on a max deal


Not on the earliest possible max, and only if you're comparing to California for the mid-max deal. For the guys making the absolute max (over 20 mill), the state income tax rate would have to be over 8.5%, which many states are under. And all of this still ignores the fact that Florida and Texas just don't go "We don't need any of your money!", they make up for it elsewhere. It's pretty damn expensive to live in the Houston area.
   2473. robinred Posted: June 28, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4168785)
Yeah, in the post I said maybe Morey thinks that if Howard is in Houston, that would put Williams in Dallas. Williams has said stuff like, "I'm 28 now and I want to win."

Paul and Howard would then be on the market together in 2013, with Williams off it. Of course, there are any number of other ways it could go--Paul stays with the Clippers, Howard goes to Dallas, etc. But if Howard liked Houston after being there for a year, Paul was a UFA, and Houston had Howard's Bird Rights and a lot of cap space...This all assumes that I am right, and playing with either Paul or Williams is a big deal to Howard and vice versa, which may be false.

I saw a quote from Morey about three years ago to the effect that the "NBA Moneyball" stuff if done right works very well for finding guys 4-9, and Morey has in fact put together a decent team without either a big star or a high lottery pick. But he also said IIRC that it doesn't have much to do with landing big stars, which is still the key to winning, and Houston has been in rumors about Bosh, apparently had actually thought they traded for Gasol before Stern squashed it, and now is after Howard even though Howard's people have supposedly said he will not sign an extension there.

Also as I said before, Houston is not IMO a "destination for ring-chasing" because of anything to do with the city or its market size. Drexler is from Houston and wanted to play with Olajuwon again, and I think Barkley, Pippen, and Olajuwon wanted to play on the same team, and Houston happened to be where they could do it. Olajuwon stayed there all that time since it was his US "hometown" and they had a good org. "Ring-chasing" is more about timing and personnel--as Moses said at the time, Shaq ring-chased in Cleveland.
   2474. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4168829)
Also as I said before, Houston is not IMO a "destination for ring-chasing" because of anything to do with the city or its market size.


Well, like I mentioned last time we talked about Houston, it may not be near the very top of the list of most desireable cities to play for, but it's nowhere near the bottom of the "why the hell would anyone want to play there?" locations either. If you split the teams right down the middle, I'd guess Houston would almost certainly be in the upper half. It might even squeak into the top 10, for all the reasons people have already mentioned.

Not everyone can play in New York, LA, Boston, Chicago, or Miami. But other than those 5, why would Houston be less desireable than any of the other options?
   2475. smileyy Posted: June 28, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4168864)
It's the main reason why I thought (and still think) all the talk of Miami making a poor decision is just laughable.


I think there's a more nuanced view that of that argument that has merit. The title takes some of those legs away, but going forward, I can see Wade being an overpay that limits cap flexibility. However, I think the Battier, Miller and Haslem contracts/declines are bigger culprits there.
   2476. JuanGone..except1game Posted: June 28, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4168869)
Not everyone can play in New York, LA, Boston, Chicago, or Miami. But other than those 5, why would Houston be less desireable than any of the other options?


I've travelled to most of the cities in the NBA and I'd personally rate Houston closer to the bottom. Not particularly prgressive (we are talking about a mostly black league), pretty bad night scene unless you like Cowboy bars, super hot and humid summer and bad traffic. It does have some spectacular homes for the well to do, but I think that your overrating it a bit. Also, I'd rate it below Dallas and San Antonio as texas cities.
   2477. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4168885)
I've travelled to most of the cities in the NBA and I'd personally rate Houston closer to the bottom. Not particularly prgressive (we are talking about a mostly black league), pretty bad night scene unless you like Cowboy bars, super hot and humid summer and bad traffic. It does have some spectacular homes for the well to do, but I think that your overrating it a bit. Also, I'd rate it below Dallas and San Antonio as texas cities.


Which of the following do you think would be more attractive FA destinations than Houston? Toronto, SLC, Sacto, Denver, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Indiana, OKC (if they weren't good), Charlotte, Nawlins, Atlanta, Cleveland, Portland, Memphis...That's about half the league right there.

I'm not saying it's a great location that anyone should love to play for, but since most the truly "blingy" teams are pretty much maxed out with big contracts already, I don't really see why Houston would be more unattractive than the majority of the remaining options.
   2478. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 28, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4168906)
Not particularly prgressive (we are talking about a mostly black league)

Yeah, but there is a huge black community in Houston and the suburbs as well. Plenty of NBA players are from there (Stephen Jackson, T.J. Ford, DeAndre Jordan, Gerald Green, Boobie Gibson, Emeka Okafor). It's not like Oklahoma City or god forbid, Utah.
   2479. jmurph Posted: June 28, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4168924)
I think RR's larger point was that it is the context/circumstance that leads to a place being desirable, not the city. So Houston is as good (or bad) a place as any. There are very few exceptions to this: LA (even then, this is generally not true of the Clippers), NY, perhaps Chicago (though that certainly wasn't the case in the Duncan/Hill/MacGrady year). Boston is a cirmumstance market, I would say. You don't exactly see free agents clammering to sign there when they aren't otherwise already in contention.
   2480. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: June 28, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4168930)
Which of the following do you think would be more attractive FA destinations than Houston? Toronto, SLC, Sacto, Denver, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Indiana, OKC (if they weren't good), Charlotte, Nawlins, Atlanta, Cleveland, Portland, Memphis...That's about half the league right there.


For the average NBA player... we're all just guessing, but I would expect Toronto, NOLA, Atlanta, and Memphis to all be above Houston in the "pecking order" and probably Portland and Charlotte too.

This is probably colored by my hatred of Houston, which for many of the reasons in 2476 is one of my least favorite cities.
   2481. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4168946)
I think RR's larger point was that it is the context/circumstance that leads to a place being desirable, not the city. So Houston is as good (or bad) a place as any. There are very few exceptions to this: LA (even then, this is generally not true of the Clippers), NY, perhaps Chicago (though that certainly wasn't the case in the Duncan/Hill/MacGrady year). Boston is a cirmumstance market, I would say. You don't exactly see free agents clammering to sign there when they aren't otherwise already in contention.


I agree that there probably aren't many cities players absolutely want to play for other than those ones (I'd add Miami though - it's not a coincidence that the superfriends decided to join Wade in Miami rather than LeBron in Cleveland or Bosh in Toronto), but I do think there are several that players DON'T want to play for, everything else being equal.

I agree on Boston about it's market itself, but because of the teams history I do think there's probably more prestige to being a Celtic than there is with most other teams (Lakers excluded).

For the average NBA player... we're all just guessing, but I would expect Toronto, NOLA, Atlanta, and Memphis to all be above Houston in the "pecking order" and probably Portland and Charlotte too.


Why these teams? What am I not seeing? Especially Toronto...I'd guess that they might be in a dogfight with Utah as the least desireable city in the NBA.

Edit: yes, I know that Utah isn't a city
   2482. Joel W Posted: June 28, 2012 at 04:55 PM (#4168966)
Yeah, but there is a huge black community in Houston and the suburbs as well. Plenty of NBA players are from there (Stephen Jackson, T.J. Ford, DeAndre Jordan, Gerald Green, Boobie Gibson, Emeka Okafor). It's not like Oklahoma City or god forbid, Utah.


I think this point is going really underestimated WRT cities to live in. Here is some evidence: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_042012.pdf

   2483. jmurph Posted: June 28, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4168970)
Odom to the Clips, Mo Williams to the Jazz, who knows what to Dallas, according to Hoops Rumors. It's done.
   2484. nick swisher hygiene Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4168973)
look, Houston has one of the half-dozen significant rap scenes in American history--it's a black capital--I'm gonna say that with the single exception of Atlanta NONE of the cities listed by Booey would rate above Houston if you asked all NBA players to vote.
   2485. Tripon Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4168974)
Dallas gets a ten million trade exemption which just means they get to pocket ten million.
   2486. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4168976)
For the average NBA player... we're all just guessing, but I would expect Toronto, NOLA, Atlanta, and Memphis to all be above Houston in the "pecking order" and probably Portland and Charlotte too.

Memphis?! Really?
   2487. Yardape Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4168980)
it's not a coincidence that the superfriends decided to join Wade in Miami rather than LeBron in Cleveland or Bosh in Toronto)


I thought Miami was the only team that had the cap space to get all three. Cleveland definitely didn't have much cap space there.
   2488. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4168986)
I thought Miami was the only team that had the cap space to get all three. Cleveland definitely didn't have much cap space there.

I don't remember. But if all 3 teams did, don't you think Miami would have been the most likely destination they would've choosen anyway? South Beach, weather, taxes, etc.

Oh, and it's not Canada.
   2489. andrewberg Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4168987)
I think this point is going really underestimated WRT cities to live in. Here is some evidence: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_042012.pdf


Having lived in Philadelphia, my gast is downright flabbered that it nets out positive. I would have guessed 97% negative, 2% unsure, 1% go #### yourself.
   2490. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4168988)
I don't remember. But if all 3 teams did, don't you think Miami would have been the most likely destination they would've choosen anyway? South Beach, weather, taxes, etc.


IIRC, Miami was the only team that could sign all three, not just two. Beyond that, I suspect that, at least for that caliber of player, the Pat Riley pedigree would be more important certainly then South Beach and the weather, and probably taxes.
   2491. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4168995)
#2490 - I would guess that all that played into the Decision as well, yes.

Maybe I'm just interpreting LeBron's "I'm taking my talents to South Beach" comment way too literally, but IMO that line made it sound like location was an important part of the equation.
   2492. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4168999)
   2493. robinred Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4169005)
Maybe I'm just interpreting LeBron's "I'm taking my talents to South Beach" comment way too literally


I am sure it helped a little, but I think it had much more to do with:

Wade's relationship with the other two guys
Riley's gravitas/style/history as (FTO says)
Miami having enough cap space to sign all three of them to near-max deals (as Yardape said)


As far as Houston, I don't think it is more or less "desirable" than a lot of other places, and while I could be wrong, I don't see it as having any notable advantages over many other markets. I think that most of these guys make the FA destination decisions based on "basketball reasons" as much as anything else.

   2494. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4169010)
Does anyone else find the UTA/LAC/DAL rumor kind of weird/improbable? Not saying I don't believe it but... I'm surprised.
   2495. andrewberg Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4169012)
Point guards outperform expectations, based on production and minutes, by huge margins.


Redemption for Kahn.
   2496. robinred Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4169014)
Not me. Odom to the Clippers makes sense and had been rumored for weeks, and if Utah doesn't want Mo, they can probably trade him.
   2497. andrewberg Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4169015)
Does anyone else find the UTA/LAC/DAL rumor kind of weird/improbable? Not saying I don't believe it but... I'm surprised.


I am surprised that Utah wants to jump at Mo Williams. When I heard that LAC and DAL were working on a deal to unload Odom if the Clips could find a taker for Mo, I figured it would fizzle. I guess the risk is small for only one year, but what are they trying to accomplish? He seems like a guy a contender would want as a final piece off the bench, plus he was already complaining about his contract last year. There is serious potential for him to become a problem.
   2498. robinred Posted: June 28, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4169019)
everything else being equal.


In the NBA, everything else is almost never equal.
   2499. robinred Posted: June 28, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4169021)
could find a taker for Mo


Many people assumed this would be the Lakers. He fits into the TPE and fits the team's needs pretty well. I suspect that if Mo goes to the Jazz it will be a temporary stay.
   2500. Booey Posted: June 28, 2012 at 06:08 PM (#4169024)
I am sure it helped a little, but I think it had much more to do with:

Wade's relationship with the other two guys
Riley's gravitas/style/history as (FTO says)
Miami having enough cap space to sign all three of them to near-max deals (as Yardape said)


True, Miami was the perfect choice for several reasons, but what if Toronto had been the only one of those cities with enough cap space to sign all 3? What would have happened then?

1)The superfriends all sign with the Raptors and turn them into a perennial contender,

2)They all leave their current teams and sign with a 4th team together (if that option was even possible), or

3)Two of them sign together (but not in Toronto), or all three go their own separate ways. Either way, the superfriends never happen.

If I were guessing, I'd guess the 3rd option is most likely, followed by the 2nd. I don't see Toronto getting LeBron or Wade as FA's no matter what.


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