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Everything I have seen has Houston offering Morris and Montiejunas to Orlando, too. I doubt that changes your opinion much.
Misread. Thanks.
@2401 et al,
Why do people think Orlando can get that big of a haul? Brooklyn is the only team (it feels really cool to write that), and maybe LA, for whom it makes sense to pay a high price because he'll definitely resign. Everywhere else, you're jsut getting a one-year contract.
That's how it goes I guess. The celebrated haul for Melo is now basically an overpriced Wilson Chandler and Gallo. The hauls for Garnett and Gasol have been killed here over and over. The haul for CP3 depends almost totally on Eric Gordon's health. The haul for Williams depends on Favors developing (though I like his chances).
You forgot to include "Not Carmelo Anthony" in there.
Right. When you trade away someone that good, you're getting worse. And nothing's going to change that.
Dragic is a free agent, and he will have suitors.
They also get to not pay Melo a max contract. He's good, but he's not in the category of stars who are underpaid simply by virtue of a ceiling on the salary you can pay. I think I could do better taking 18 million and splitting it among free agents than paying that much to Carmelo.
Also, looks like the Nuggets have the Knick's 2014 first rounder. That likely will be in the 15-25 range, where Denver can pick up an interesting player. But if New York has a bad luck year with a lot of injuries, that could turn into a huge plus for Denver.
Denver was 32-25 before the trade and 18-7 after, so they came out just fine on the court as well.
It matters how you allocate that. If you overpay a few of them, like they did with Wilson Chandler, it doesn't look as good.
Pick is first lotto protected, then top 8, top 1, unprotected
Mags deal has 1/10.9 left, Gordon has 2/25.6
Oh wait, that was a real article.
Should I be happy about this if I'm a Pistons fan? Is it worth giving up a first round pick just to have an expiring contract this year instead of next year?
If you want a guard, I don't see how you can justify Wiaters over Beal. Beal has more steals/blocks, is a better rebounder and is quite a bit younger. I don't view 3% difference in their 3p shooting as significant.
Double obviously, I don't see how you explicitly value upside potential and then draft Drummond 10. My client deserves better in your mock draft, Hoops Analyst!
tshipman, I suspect you're not looking at per minute figures - Beal played 34.2 mpg, Waiters 24.1. Here are their per 40 pace adjusted numbers:
DW 21.2 pts, 3.9 reb, 4.2 ast, 3.0 stl, 2.2 to, 0.5 blk, 3.1 pf, 5.9-11.1 52.9% 2PT, 1.9-5.1 36.3% 3PT, 3.9-5.4 72.9% FT
BB 17.4 pts, 7.9 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.6 stl, 2.5 to, 1.0 blk, 2.4 pf, 3.6-6.6 54.1% 2PT, 2.0-5.9 33.9% 3PT, 4.2-5.5 76.9% FT
Beal is a year and a half younger, a bit over an inch taller and 20 pounds lighter. Waiters is a stronger defender, even apart from the steals. (Note: I don't like the way some stat-y people use steal and block numbers as a measure of defense as opposed to *aspects* of defense and usable athleticism.
Waiters was the first guy I pegged as a sleeper when I started thinking about the draft a few months back - like the mix of steals, atr, threes and free throws, and position defense. He's somewhere in my top five and I can understand taking him over Beal (who I ultimately favor). Not keen on the low minute totals, both as it reduces my confidence in his numbers and, more obviously, why not play this guy more?
****
Pretty sure I've said this before, but my own internal draft board logic has parallels with Ed's - so I can see where he's coming from.
I was looking at both. I think that per minute figures are dangerous. It's easier to go hard for 24 minutes than 34.
I really like blocks from guards, because it shows elite athleticism in use. Similarly, plus rebounding numbers are really positive signss for me. It's my suspicion that DW is too small to play defense effectively at the 2, so defense at the college level doesn't mean a lot to me.
I don't think it's controversial that Beal is a much better prospect than Wiaters. Wiaters is an interesting gamble at 15 or later. He's not lottery material, and certainly not #2.
It matters how much improvement they show. If they can get something good in the draft, they may be able to spin the expiring for something. Or just let it expire and amnesty Villanueva, and then have a ton of cap space. Which is actually more valuable in a trade with teams looking to shed players to avoid the tax. No star free agent is looking at the cap space in Detroit and salivating.
There is some interesting analysis in his rankings, but I don't like this bit of reductivist self-aggrandizement:
It's like saying, "if I'm wrong, it's not my method that is responsible, it's other people's biases." If he is confident in his method, he doesn't need to hedge like that.
Is that trade possible? GS doesn't have the cap space
Note: ESPN's NBA trade machine appears to have been updated for the new year.
I think he said Dorrell Wright has to move back to Denver.
What's GS's motivation? How many wings do they need?
Yeah, this is an absurdly pointless/bad transaction for the W's even by their lofty standards.
MarShon Brooks to compete in the annual Nathan's thing.
**
Pelton's article on prospective draftees and their closest comps is up (making mention of the MKG ~= Deng/Harris thing). The following sums up my feeling on this draft:
#2 Robinson ===> Glen Davis (with the Morris twins also in his top 4 comps)
Of the guys ranked 2-15, the best of the comps in the league might be DeAndre Jordan (for Leonard). Yuck.
This article is just one of the things that are quickly pushing me towards thinking Terrence Jones might be the #2 guy in the draft.
I'm not sold on Jones' motor, but I definitely think that he ought to go higher than where he's slotting based solely on talent (the PF glut is hurting him).
The second Brockman is supposed to be Shaun Livingston.
I was hoping it was Kent.
the way things look right now, all of the guards and wings will be off the board by then. waiters, rivers, lillard, ross, and lamb have all risen into the 5-12 range now, which leaves only the 2nd tier of PFs as likely to be on the board. i'm not a big perry jones fan and i'm not a big arnett moultrie fan, and though i am a huge terrence jones fan and a huge jared sullinger fan, my enthusiasm for either of them has been tempered by my quickly developing mancrush on mike scott, out of UVA.
before this process started, sullinger was #1 on the list of players whose addition i thought would make the biggest impact for the sixers. but as i've gotten familiar with scott, i think he does about 90% of what sullinger does, except he does it as a 23 year old second round pick. he bangs in the post, he has a consistent jump shot, he rebounds, he gets to the FT line. he doesn't have great size, and he's overaged, and he's not an explosive defender, but i think he's going to come into the league and immediate be a capable rotation player. his ceiling isn't necessarily as a 20 and 12 guy (which is what i think a healthy, peak sullinger could do), but maybe 16 and 8, and if that's your 3rd or 4th best player, i think you'd be pretty happy with that.
right now, i think my best case scenario (assuming there's no iguodala trade) is something like this:
15: jeremy lamb--his length is jaw dropping, and the fact that he hit 60% of his 2pt FGAs as a sophomore has me drooling. i don't think he's a star, but i think he's a really solid #2.
45: mike scott
54: tu holloway--i'm still on his bandwagon. he's tough, he's physical, he scores, he gets to the FT line.
at 15, i think my order of preference is something like this:
lamb
terrence jones
sullinger/ross/henson
rivers/leonard/teague
moultrie/harkless
marshall
perry jones--i really do not want perry jones.
and guys that i like in the 2nd round:
festus ezeli
mike scott
kyle o'quinn
hollis thompson
alex young
orlando johnson
darius johnson-odom
j'covan brown
tu holloway
The STEAGLES/smileyy lovefest might get a little too intense if Holloway gets drafted by the Sixers and sticks. I think Holloway will make a very good backup PG as long as he's not a primary offensive option. He's had trouble creating shots or getting to the line against longer college competition. OTOH, with his feet set, he's a very good 3P shooter -- his college numbers are weighed down by shots taken off the dribble.
Like STEAGLES and Allen Iverson, I like what Lou Williams does for the Sixers, even if that puts us in a minority among Sixers fans. I understand that if he gets a big offer, you let him go, because it's tough to pay him and Thad big bucks to come off the bench. On the other hand, production is production.
Maybe Morey thinks that if he gets Howard, Williams will go to Dallas, and Houston can then get Paul and Howard to both sign in July 2013. Martin's deal is expiring, and they could amnesty Scola.
Rumor mill says that Atlanta wants to trade Josh Smith here to the Lakers for Pau Gasol. Both Sund and Ferry will be in the Hawks' "war room" tomorrow.
Never say never, but Howard, Paul and Williams will never be on the Rockets at the same time. Especially if getting Howard is dependent on getting Howard.
I don't think Leonard has more upside than MKG, even after he was better this past season that people expected.
This post confuses me. I think robinred was saying they'd get 2 of them, not all 3. And the last sentence is also confusing. In any event, I agree with what I think you're saying. Houston hasn't been particularly relevant for a while, and I don't see a good reason why it would be considered a destination for a team up. This also requires a lot of things falling into place at the right time.
It's a destination for numerous reasons. First, it's in Texas which means no taxes. Second, it's a huge city, it really is. Third, it's a warm weather city and I'm sure that a good amount of players live in the area. I know that there's a lot of players who train there in the offseason.
Woj is reporting that the Celts are trying to move into late lottery.
The anomaly to me has been that Houston has struggled the last several years. They have drafted and managed the cap situation relatively well. I suppose it is a freak occurrence to lose two franchise-ish players to career-altering injuries at the same time, and also to lose out on Gasol/Nene due to league office veto, but it surprises me nonetheless. If this process ends with them fielding a team featuring Dragic-Martin-Gay-Smith-X, I wouldn't be shocked, and that could be a pretty dangerous team, especially if Mr. X can play some defense inside.
This goes back to team construction. Getting good role players is tough, but not near as important as getting the star. Houston's a team with great role players and no stars. It's the main reason why I thought (and still think) all the talk of Miami making a poor decision is just laughable. Miami has 2 of the toughest assets to acquire in all of the NBA - they have two top 25 players.
That sums it up, doesn't it? I'm not normally inclined to give a pass but - imo - Morey and co. have earned one.
i think MKG is more athletic and probably a better ball handler, but leonard is stronger and a more versatile defender, and he's already taken a really big step forward by improving his 3pt shooting.
personally, i had leonard going to cleveland last year at #4 overall, so i don't exactly think it's fair to denigrate MKG by comparing him to a player that just happened to dropfurther than anyone thought he'd possibly drop.
One thing that makes evaluating MKG tricky is in just how stacked that roster was - there was no need to optimize what they do to benefit him, particularly given his willingness to defer.
It's been a destination for big name ring chasing before, when Barkley joined Olajuwon and Drexler in 1996, or 3 years later when Pippen replaced Clyde. Throw in McGrady, Yao, and maybe even Steve Francis, and the Rockets have had as many big names in the last 15-20 years as all but a few teams. I've never thought of them as one of the undesireable cities that would have a hard time getting or keeping stars.
I know the no taxes thing looks fantastic on the surface, but really how much of a boon is it? You still get taxed for all your road games, and it's not like Texas isn't making up for this with tax dollars somewhere else. If you buy end up buying property fit for a NBA star in the Houston area, you aren't going to save any money on taxes.
Not the ones in Dallas and San Antonio. :)
A) "Why would you draft a 21-year-old when you can draft a 19-year-old? I mean, look at Austin Rivers! He's like that other guy, but he's 19! Maybe he'll get even better!" Did I miss a study that found that basketball players peak at the age of 21? Or do NBA teams now sign their draft picks to 10-year contracts, so drafting a guy who isn't going to be mature enough to play in the NBA until he's been in the league for two years has become a good idea?
B) Why is MKG getting credit for "His teams win. All he has done is win. He's a winner!" He was on the same high school team as Kyrie Irving. He was on the same college team as Anthony Davis. Has anyone ever been the #2 overall draft pick while having less experience as the best player on his own team?
Or Orlando or Miami.
It's a big one. That's 50 some games with no state income tax. At the highest possible rate. It's probably an extra million on a max deal.
Marvin Williams
Kawhi Leonard should have gone higher and some mocks did have him going higher (just looking around quickly online he was 9th on nbadraft.net and couple other sites and as high as 6th on sporting news). Hollinger had him 5th on his board (he seems be missing from the hoopsanalyst stuff). I think if he had gone to a higher profile school like Kentucky he would been drafted higher.
Nickpicking, but it's not quite 50. That'd be 45-47, depending on whether the schedule had them play the Mavs and Spurs twice on the road or only once.
Unless you were including playoff games, in which case you can ignore this entire post. :)
Unless you count the games played in Washington state, which brings the total to 45-47.
Sorry Sonics fans...
He (and Jimmer) were intentionally left off his top 30.
I've got to the think most NBA players take the tax situation into account when they sign (provided that they have strong options).
Is this Simmons quoting someone, or is only the quote Simmons? You'd expect a 19-year-old to have more upside of a 21-year-old of the same ability. There are actually plenty of basketball players who peak at 21-22.
Derek Fisher and Mike Miller just got big minutes in the finals.
Not on the earliest possible max, and only if you're comparing to California for the mid-max deal. For the guys making the absolute max (over 20 mill), the state income tax rate would have to be over 8.5%, which many states are under. And all of this still ignores the fact that Florida and Texas just don't go "We don't need any of your money!", they make up for it elsewhere. It's pretty damn expensive to live in the Houston area.
Paul and Howard would then be on the market together in 2013, with Williams off it. Of course, there are any number of other ways it could go--Paul stays with the Clippers, Howard goes to Dallas, etc. But if Howard liked Houston after being there for a year, Paul was a UFA, and Houston had Howard's Bird Rights and a lot of cap space...This all assumes that I am right, and playing with either Paul or Williams is a big deal to Howard and vice versa, which may be false.
I saw a quote from Morey about three years ago to the effect that the "NBA Moneyball" stuff if done right works very well for finding guys 4-9, and Morey has in fact put together a decent team without either a big star or a high lottery pick. But he also said IIRC that it doesn't have much to do with landing big stars, which is still the key to winning, and Houston has been in rumors about Bosh, apparently had actually thought they traded for Gasol before Stern squashed it, and now is after Howard even though Howard's people have supposedly said he will not sign an extension there.
Also as I said before, Houston is not IMO a "destination for ring-chasing" because of anything to do with the city or its market size. Drexler is from Houston and wanted to play with Olajuwon again, and I think Barkley, Pippen, and Olajuwon wanted to play on the same team, and Houston happened to be where they could do it. Olajuwon stayed there all that time since it was his US "hometown" and they had a good org. "Ring-chasing" is more about timing and personnel--as Moses said at the time, Shaq ring-chased in Cleveland.
Well, like I mentioned last time we talked about Houston, it may not be near the very top of the list of most desireable cities to play for, but it's nowhere near the bottom of the "why the hell would anyone want to play there?" locations either. If you split the teams right down the middle, I'd guess Houston would almost certainly be in the upper half. It might even squeak into the top 10, for all the reasons people have already mentioned.
Not everyone can play in New York, LA, Boston, Chicago, or Miami. But other than those 5, why would Houston be less desireable than any of the other options?
I think there's a more nuanced view that of that argument that has merit. The title takes some of those legs away, but going forward, I can see Wade being an overpay that limits cap flexibility. However, I think the Battier, Miller and Haslem contracts/declines are bigger culprits there.
I've travelled to most of the cities in the NBA and I'd personally rate Houston closer to the bottom. Not particularly prgressive (we are talking about a mostly black league), pretty bad night scene unless you like Cowboy bars, super hot and humid summer and bad traffic. It does have some spectacular homes for the well to do, but I think that your overrating it a bit. Also, I'd rate it below Dallas and San Antonio as texas cities.
Which of the following do you think would be more attractive FA destinations than Houston? Toronto, SLC, Sacto, Denver, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Indiana, OKC (if they weren't good), Charlotte, Nawlins, Atlanta, Cleveland, Portland, Memphis...That's about half the league right there.
I'm not saying it's a great location that anyone should love to play for, but since most the truly "blingy" teams are pretty much maxed out with big contracts already, I don't really see why Houston would be more unattractive than the majority of the remaining options.
Yeah, but there is a huge black community in Houston and the suburbs as well. Plenty of NBA players are from there (Stephen Jackson, T.J. Ford, DeAndre Jordan, Gerald Green, Boobie Gibson, Emeka Okafor). It's not like Oklahoma City or god forbid, Utah.
For the average NBA player... we're all just guessing, but I would expect Toronto, NOLA, Atlanta, and Memphis to all be above Houston in the "pecking order" and probably Portland and Charlotte too.
This is probably colored by my hatred of Houston, which for many of the reasons in 2476 is one of my least favorite cities.
I agree that there probably aren't many cities players absolutely want to play for other than those ones (I'd add Miami though - it's not a coincidence that the superfriends decided to join Wade in Miami rather than LeBron in Cleveland or Bosh in Toronto), but I do think there are several that players DON'T want to play for, everything else being equal.
I agree on Boston about it's market itself, but because of the teams history I do think there's probably more prestige to being a Celtic than there is with most other teams (Lakers excluded).
Why these teams? What am I not seeing? Especially Toronto...I'd guess that they might be in a dogfight with Utah as the least desireable city in the NBA.
Edit: yes, I know that Utah isn't a city
I think this point is going really underestimated WRT cities to live in. Here is some evidence: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_042012.pdf
Memphis?! Really?
I thought Miami was the only team that had the cap space to get all three. Cleveland definitely didn't have much cap space there.
I don't remember. But if all 3 teams did, don't you think Miami would have been the most likely destination they would've choosen anyway? South Beach, weather, taxes, etc.
Oh, and it's not Canada.
Having lived in Philadelphia, my gast is downright flabbered that it nets out positive. I would have guessed 97% negative, 2% unsure, 1% go #### yourself.
IIRC, Miami was the only team that could sign all three, not just two. Beyond that, I suspect that, at least for that caliber of player, the Pat Riley pedigree would be more important certainly then South Beach and the weather, and probably taxes.
Maybe I'm just interpreting LeBron's "I'm taking my talents to South Beach" comment way too literally, but IMO that line made it sound like location was an important part of the equation.
I am sure it helped a little, but I think it had much more to do with:
Wade's relationship with the other two guys
Riley's gravitas/style/history as (FTO says)
Miami having enough cap space to sign all three of them to near-max deals (as Yardape said)
As far as Houston, I don't think it is more or less "desirable" than a lot of other places, and while I could be wrong, I don't see it as having any notable advantages over many other markets. I think that most of these guys make the FA destination decisions based on "basketball reasons" as much as anything else.
Redemption for Kahn.
I am surprised that Utah wants to jump at Mo Williams. When I heard that LAC and DAL were working on a deal to unload Odom if the Clips could find a taker for Mo, I figured it would fizzle. I guess the risk is small for only one year, but what are they trying to accomplish? He seems like a guy a contender would want as a final piece off the bench, plus he was already complaining about his contract last year. There is serious potential for him to become a problem.
In the NBA, everything else is almost never equal.
Many people assumed this would be the Lakers. He fits into the TPE and fits the team's needs pretty well. I suspect that if Mo goes to the Jazz it will be a temporary stay.
True, Miami was the perfect choice for several reasons, but what if Toronto had been the only one of those cities with enough cap space to sign all 3? What would have happened then?
1)The superfriends all sign with the Raptors and turn them into a perennial contender,
2)They all leave their current teams and sign with a 4th team together (if that option was even possible), or
3)Two of them sign together (but not in Toronto), or all three go their own separate ways. Either way, the superfriends never happen.
If I were guessing, I'd guess the 3rd option is most likely, followed by the 2nd. I don't see Toronto getting LeBron or Wade as FA's no matter what.
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