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Friday, June 01, 2012

OT: NBA Monthly Thread, June 2012

I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: overwrought, acrimonious discussions about having where to put the site’s overwrought, acrimonious discussions.

Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 01, 2012 at 09:58 AM | 2704 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   2601. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 01, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4170364)
blake agrees to max entension, paul turns down one - no surprise there.
asik popular - rumor is hou offering a deal ~8m/yr. por also planning a visit.
   2602. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: July 01, 2012 at 01:51 AM (#4170405)
Somehow this Dwight Howard saga is going to end like Ethan Fromme, with Howard mournfully signing a long-term extension in Orlando and Stan van Gundy re-hired, glaring at Howard with unconcealed joyous hatred.
   2603. Zipperholes Posted: July 01, 2012 at 02:50 AM (#4170418)
Alex Kennedy tweeted that Dwight Howard is trying to nullify the opt-in that he just agreed to sign a few months ago. I don't understand why he signed it if he never had any intention of staying in Orlando.
If this blog post is to be believed, he's claiming he was "blackmailed," because before he waived his ETO, the Magic told him he'd be traded if he didn't. Moore thinks he assumed he'd waive sign the opt-in, get traded to the Nets this summer, and get a better extension than he would in FA because of Bird rights. Now that the Magic probably won't be trading him to the Nets, that plan isn't working out so well.
   2604. PJ Martinez Posted: July 01, 2012 at 09:00 AM (#4170430)
Celtics supposedly pursuing Jason Terry. Makes a lot of sense as a Ray Allen replacement. He's use to coming off the bench and would fit easily next to either Bradley or Rondo.
   2605. GregD Posted: July 01, 2012 at 11:24 AM (#4170461)
Why in the world is Dwight heart set on the Nets? He is truly an idiot.
   2606. Tripon Posted: July 01, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4170479)
Dwight Howard is dumb, if the Magic was threatening him to trade him, even to a team he doesn't like, that would have only been a couple of months until free agency. And its not a 'threat' or 'blackmail' if its a normal part of basketball operations and covered by the CBA.

If Howard gets his way, then you would just see teams trade players without ever telling them where they are going. And that'll be fantastic.
   2607. tshipman Posted: July 01, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4170586)
In this article from WojaYahoo, Woj buries this nugget:

Nevertheless, time is running out for Howard to be traded to Brooklyn because Nets general manager Billy King has begun to aggressively explore deals for players like Joe Johnson, Luis Scola and O.J. Mayo in an attempt to surround free-agent point guard Deron Williams with more talent.


If Billy King actually trades for Joe Johnson's contract, that would be amazing. I mean over-paying Gerald Wallace is one thing, but picking up Joe Johnson as well?
   2608. The District Attorney Posted: July 01, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4170607)
Hollinger on Twitter:
Despite what's been put out there, the Johnson/Scola Nets stuff seems much more likely to me were Williams to leave.

Not *smarter* mind you, but dots connect better - Nets would be completely desperate to avoid embarrassment w/o DWill.
I could totally see this being the Nets' thought process, but I think it's misguided. This year will be a honeymoon for them either way. They'd be better off tanking it than killing themselves (and their salary cap) trying to win 35 games.
   2609. baudib Posted: July 01, 2012 at 03:47 PM (#4170709)
I'd like to see Howard and Williams on the Nets, because I think it'd be fun to see them together and because they'd be playing 4 miles from where I live.

But WTF. Howard, the Magic and the Nets seem hell-bent on turning this into an epic clusterfrak.

   2610. The District Attorney Posted: July 01, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4170780)
Sam Amick @sam_amick

Source confirms Toronto has offered Steve Nash a three-year, $36 million deal with no options attached. @ESPNSteinLine had first.
   2611. rr Posted: July 01, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4170817)
Why in the world is Dwight heart set on the Nets?


IMO he wants to play with Paul or Williams. Like James, he has played on a small market team that spent a gigantic amount of money and made huge numbers of moves trying to get over the top with him but could never get a solid second guy and came up short. James left and joined a team that had no roster at all except for Chalmers and Haslem and won a title in two years because he has two other stars with him. Obviously, Howard/Williams <<< James/Wade/Bosh, but I think Howard figures teaming up with Paul or Williams is his best shot, and he is probably right, assuming Chicago is not on his radar, and it does not appear to be.

I also would guess that the re-branding/coolness factor of the Nets appeals to him. Brooklyn would be "his franchise" in a way that Dallas, Chicago, the Lakers, Houston et al never would. Plus it's Brooklyn and Jay-Z and Prokhorov with his boat full of Euro supermodels and it looks like they will have cool black uniforms.

That said, I kind of think Hennigan will trade Howard to Houston. My guess is that they can come up with a better offer and I think a lot of the Orlando fans at this point would like Howard NOT getting to go where he wants to go, at least for a year (as long as it's not the Lakers).
   2612. Zipperholes Posted: July 01, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4170825)
I would laugh if the Magic traded him to the Bobcats for Ben Gordon, Kidd-Gilchrist and their next three #1s.
   2613. The District Attorney Posted: July 01, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4170840)
Stein/Ford:

- Latest offer: Brooklyn's expiring contracts (Farmar, Petro, Morrow and Jordan Williams) to ATL for Joe Johnson
- ATL wants MarShon Brooks as well
- Brooklyn will only do it if Deron re-signs
- Brooklyn would rather sign-and-trade Gerald Green (or maybe Humphries) than give up all four expirings, as this would keep them over the cap and give them a MLE, which they want to use on Bosnian free-agent forward Mirza Teletovic
   2614. baudib Posted: July 01, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4170843)
   2615. The District Attorney Posted: July 01, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4170847)
Stein then tweets:
Nash met with Raps and Knicks today. Nets will make their pitch in AM, interested in Nash both as potential D-Will replacement and teammate
   2616. The District Attorney Posted: July 01, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4170896)
Chris Mannix @ChrisMannixSI

Source confirms Houston, Omer Asik have agreed to a three-year, $25.1 million deal. Bulls can match.
   2617. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 01, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4170901)
Lavoy stays in Philly, 2/6m. Weird that the sixers didn't get Yr 2 min wage team opt to begin with
   2618. steagles Posted: July 01, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4170905)
Lavoy stays in Philly, 2/6m. Weird that the sixers didn't get Yr 2 min wage team opt to begin with

the sixers are not a very smart, nor are they a very creative, organization.
   2619. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 01, 2012 at 09:30 PM (#4170953)
Jason Friendman wrote a nice series of articles spotlighting the top FAs by position - here's the last in the series (with links to the others).
   2620. tshipman Posted: July 01, 2012 at 10:03 PM (#4170969)
- Latest offer: Brooklyn's expiring contracts (Farmar, Petro, Morrow and Jordan Williams) to ATL for Joe Johnson
- ATL wants MarShon Brooks as well
- Brooklyn will only do it if Deron re-signs
- Brooklyn would rather sign-and-trade Gerald Green (or maybe Humphries) than give up all four expirings, as this would keep them over the cap and give them a MLE, which they want to use on Bosnian free-agent forward Mirza Teletovic


If ATL gets MarShon, that's like trade of the century territory.

Who the hell trades FOR Joe Johnson and Joe Johnson's Contract? And then Atlanta says ... well, you'll have to sweeten the pot.

So, assuming that somehow in the hell they get that deal done ...
PG: Deron Williams
SG: Joe Johnson
SF: ??? Keith Bogans???
PF: Kris Humphries ?
C: Brook Lopez

Does that team even win 40 games?
   2621. baudib Posted: July 01, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4170972)
:::facepalm::::
   2622. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 01, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4170980)
I know - Ferry, don't play hardball!
   2623. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 01, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4170981)
rumor! andre miller stays in denver, 3 yr deal
   2624. GregD Posted: July 01, 2012 at 10:52 PM (#4170987)
So, assuming that somehow in the hell they get that deal done ...
PG: Deron Williams
SG: Joe Johnson
SF: ??? Keith Bogans???
PF: Kris Humphries ?
C: Brook Lopez



Fear not! The Nets have already signed Gerald Wallace for 4 years/$40 million. Deal

So you'd be looking at

PG: Williams
SG: Johnson
SF: Wallace
PF: ? (Could they still resign Humphries?)
C Lopez

and almost no cap flexibility for the next 4 years! That would make the Knicks look like the 80s Lakers.
   2625. The District Attorney Posted: July 01, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4170988)
Guys, you're forgetting Mirza Teletovic. This all hinges on Mirza Teletovic.
   2626. tshipman Posted: July 01, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4170994)
and almost no cap flexibility for the next 4 years! That would make the Knicks look like the 80s Lakers.


My bad on Wallace.

Still, does that team even win 45 games? With Wallace and Humphries?
   2627. GregD Posted: July 01, 2012 at 11:35 PM (#4171003)
That team would have a high payroll and be above-average at maybe 2 slots--Williams and Lopez, with Lopez arguable. I mean, Johnson and Wallace would be among the more-expensive 2/3 combinations in the league and definitely below average. Humphries, I like, but is obviously limited. What a nightmare. If they won 45 games, I know whom I'd vote for Coach of the Year. Yuck.
   2628. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: July 01, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4171028)
Humphries, I like, but is obviously limited.


I have faith that he can divorce numerous forms of Kardashian if given the opportunity.
   2629. PJ Martinez Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:01 AM (#4171029)
I mean, Johnson and Wallace would be among the more-expensive 2/3 combinations in the league and definitely below average.

Below average, really? Overpaid sure, and not great. But I wouldn't describe either player as below average. Are there 15 starting shooting guards better than Joe Johnson? 15 better starting small forwards than Gerald Wallace? Seems unlikely.
   2630. GregD Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:12 AM (#4171036)
Below average, really? Overpaid sure, and not great. But I wouldn't describe either player as below average. Are there 15 starting shooting guards better than Joe Johnson? 15 better starting small forwards than Gerald Wallace? Seems unlikely.
Good question. I'm not sure, now that you say it. Johnson was 74th in WS/48 and Wallace 156th out of 478, though that includes some very low-usage players. Johnson was 32nd and Wallace 66th in total Win Shares. I guess I'd say that 2011-2012 and 2009-2010 Joe Johnson was above average, though 2010-2011 wasn't. What that projects forward for a 30-year-old is beyond me. Wallace? I guess he looks right at the cutoff line where you'd suppose that about half the starters are better than him and half worse, though maybe a closer look at the position might tilt you one way or the other.

40 wins? I'd grant they won't truly be awful.
   2631. jmurph Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:15 AM (#4171115)
I love bringing KG back, but I really hope Ainge doesn't think this team has a 3 year window. It's probably much closer to a one year window with a shot at the East, with Rose out. But I hope they're not bringing Allen back for 2 or 3 years, and I can't see him signing a one year deal with other offers out there.

   2632. PJ Martinez Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4171129)
jmurph, my hope is that Ainge figures out a way to transition from this team to the next incarnation without blowing things up. And I hope Josh Smith is involved, maybe as a free agent signing after this year. Then maybe there's a third All-Star-level player Ainge can somehow snag the year after that...

I'm not crazy about bringing back Allen, but if it's 2 years for not a lot of money that doesn't seem terrible.

I'm a little worried they're gonna give too much to Jeff Green.
   2633. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4171134)
Pistons to sign Vyacheslav Kravtsov to a multi-year deal. I don't know anything about the guy, but nbadraft.net comped him a few years back as a more-D, less-O Fesenko, which, in retrospect, would be like me comping my pet to a griffin or other mythical creature - it cannot exist.
   2634. jmurph Posted: July 02, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4171140)
I'm not crazy about bringing back Allen, but if it's 2 years for not a lot of money that doesn't seem terrible.


I think I'm roughly on the same page, but then, big picture, I feel like they've been rolling over a team for 3 years now that isn't good enough to win a title without everything going perfectly. Sure, they just took Miami to 7, but that was with Wade playing like crap and Bosh missing 3 (or 4, I forget) games. Yes, I realize Allen and Pierce were banged up, but they're old, that's going to happen. Is Garnett's fountain of youth going to keep producing results? Who knows. So I don't want them to have to blow it up, but I think they're also sort of stuck in that 4th or 5th best team spot, with virtually no chance of beating the top 2 or 3.
   2635. Booey Posted: July 02, 2012 at 10:45 AM (#4171172)
Good question. I'm not sure, now that you say it. Johnson was 74th in WS/48 and Wallace 156th out of 478, though that includes some very low-usage players.


I've always wondered why people even use WS/48 as a meaningful stat because of this very reason. Usage and playing time aren't small things that can just be ignored.
   2636. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 02, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4171189)
James left and joined a team that had no roster at all except for Chalmers and Haslem and won a title in two years because he has two other stars with him.

The larger point stands, but if you're going to count Haslem (who was also a FA and turned down more money from Dallas), you should also be including Wade. And really, you should be counting Wade.

I also would guess that the re-branding/coolness factor of the Nets appeals to him. Brooklyn would be "his franchise" in a way that Dallas, Chicago, the Lakers, Houston et al never would. Plus it's Brooklyn and Jay-Z and Prokhorov with his boat full of Euro supermodels and it looks like they will have cool black uniforms.

Yes, and that's probably why the Bulls aren't on his radar.

That team would have a high payroll and be above-average at maybe 2 slots--Williams and Lopez, with Lopez arguable. I mean, Johnson and Wallace would be among the more-expensive 2/3 combinations in the league and definitely below average. Humphries, I like, but is obviously limited. What a nightmare. If they won 45 games, I know whom I'd vote for Coach of the Year. Yuck.

I had a whole response typed out as I was catching up, but see PJ beat me to the overpaid <> below average point. To be fair, both will be below average at some point in both of their current contracts, but they should make the playoffs next year which might be the goal.

---

Source confirms Houston, Omer Asik have agreed to a three-year, $25.1 million deal. Bulls can match.

Hollinger has more on this, but the deal goes $5mil/$5mil/$15mil the next 3 years. I mean, I like Asik, but this is ridiculous. He doesn't seem worth the $8.3mil avg he's getting here and he's not in the same league as a $15mil player. With Rose out most of next year, I don't think there's any way the Bulls can match this. That's not the mention the tax repercussions. I guess I can hope for this to somehow turn into a sign and trade, but that's probably a long shot too.
   2637. PJ Martinez Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4171205)
I don't want them to have to blow it up, but I think they're also sort of stuck in that 4th or 5th best team spot, with virtually no chance of beating the top 2 or 3.

We covered this a little on an earlier page somewhere, but I think if you have a real chance to be the 4th or 5th or 6th best team you take it, and hope things break your way. I see no good reason for them to become mediocre or worse with the idea that they'll get lucky in the draft or whatever and somehow become great again in five years or something. Not only do those four or five years suck, they can easily become 8 or 9 years -- or more.
   2638. steagles Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4171206)
Hollinger has more on this, but the deal goes $5mil/$5mil/$15mil the next 3 years. I mean, I like Asik, but this is ridiculous. He doesn't seem worth the $8.3mil avg he's getting here and he's not in the same league as a $15mil player. With Rose out most of next year, I don't think there's any way the Bulls can match this. That's not the mention the tax repercussions. I guess I can hope for this to somehow turn into a sign and trade, but that's probably a long shot too.
how is that possible? i thought NBA contracts were limited to an 8% yearly increase, and if those numbers are right, asik's contract would blow that away. was this changed in the new CBA, or is the contract actually frontloaded, like nick collison's, making it 15-5-5?
   2639. Conor Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4171215)
how is that possible? i thought NBA contracts were limited to an 8% yearly increase, and if those numbers are right, asik's contract would blow that away. was this changed in the new CBA, or is the contract actually frontloaded, like nick collison's, making it 15-5-5?


I think there are loopholes with restricted free agents. From what I was reading on Coon's site, you need to be able to fit the average salary under the cap in the first year, not just the first year's salary. So the Rockets must have at least $8.3 million in cap room this year in order to make that offer, but since they do, they are allowed to backload the deal like that.
   2640. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:19 AM (#4171217)
We covered this a little on an earlier page somewhere, but I think if you have a real chance to be the 4th or 5th or 6th best team you take it, and hope things break your way
I think this is right. It seems like a much better bet to try to build a championship team around Rondo, Garnett, and Pierce than to try to build one around a bunch of late lottery or mid-round draft picks and cap room.
   2641. Famous Original Joe C Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4171224)
I think this is right. It seems like a much better bet to try to build a championship team around Rondo, Garnett, and Pierce than to try to build one around a bunch of late lottery or mid-round draft picks and cap room.

Agreed, with the added PR benefit that the fanbase loves this team.
   2642. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4171226)
So you'd be looking at

PG: Williams
SG: Johnson
SF: Wallace
PF: ? (Could they still resign Humphries?)
C Lopez


I don't know, that's a 4 or 5 seed in the East next year. Joe's not worth his contract, but he can still play.
   2643. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4171231)
To be clear, I think the odds are long that the Celtics build a team that can legitimately compete with the Heat or the best western teams. But maybe Rondo comes into camp with a jump shot, Garnett keeps not aging, and Avery Bradley is the player that Bill Simmons thinks he is. And maybe Chris Bosh gets hurt again or Dwyane Wade grows irreversibly old. I'd require some longish odds to do it, but I'd much rather bet on that than on a rebuilding process that could very easily stall horribly.

And to Joe's point, I watched (well, mostly I didn't watch) the Celtics go through several rebuildings over the last decade or two. It's not fun, and on top of that it's not any kind of sure bet to land you a championship roster.
   2644. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4171233)
We covered this a little on an earlier page somewhere, but I think if you have a real chance to be the 4th or 5th or 6th best team you take it, and hope things break your way

I also agree, particularly given Boston's specific alternatives.

Asik/how is that possible

It's called the Gilbert Arenas provision. Essentially, salaries in the first few years are restricted to the MLE - after that point, they are not. Accordingly, HOU is offering MLE, MLE, Max deal and will take a ~8m/yr hit to their cap. Chicago, on the other hand, would take cap hits (should they match) equivalent to the yearly salaries (hence get killed in year 3).
Honestly, I've long wondered why teams haven't done this sort of thing before (rumor is we may see it with a Lin offer as well) - guess there was just never the right fix of player, team, and need.
As for this specific contract - I think the money is too high, but not by a ridiculous amount - Asik is a truly brilliant defender. Do worry about his ability to stay out of foul trouble. As for whether he's worth the max, of course not - but that's not Houston's cap hit, is it?

***

I don't see the issues of usage and minutes w/ WS/48 being any greater than those we see with, say, PER. Biggest problem I have with WS/48 is the imprecision w/ which it treats defense (with usage second).

***

That NJ team looks good, but not good enough - without a lot of hope for the future. In any case, we need to make this happen!
   2645. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:32 AM (#4171239)
As for this specific contract - I think the money is too high, but not by a ridiculous amount - Asik is a truly brilliant defender. Do worry about his ability to stay out of foul trouble. As for whether he's worth the max, of course not - but that's not Houston's cap hit, is it?


If he got traded after year 2, would the acquiring team take on Houston's cap hit or the true value of his salary for year 3?
   2646. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4171254)
If he got traded after year 2, would the acquiring team take on Houston's cap hit or the true value of his salary for year 3?

Great question. If I had to guess, it'd be the latter since that's what he's actually making that season. And outside of this rare instance, the cap hit and the true value are almost always the same.

The Bulls, were they to match, would have the cap/tax hit of $15mil in year 3, which is also a year they look to be very, very deep into the tax, so he'd cost them $30mil! that season. Hollinger goes into more detail on why it's a 3 year and not 4 year deal (basically, if it went 4 years, the cap hit is higher for Houston now and lower for the Bulls, so it's really the perfect combo of loopholes that Houston has hit).

As for this specific contract - I think the money is too high, but not by a ridiculous amount - Asik is a truly brilliant defender. Do worry about his ability to stay out of foul trouble. As for whether he's worth the max, of course not - but that's not Houston's cap hit, is it?

Hollinger has a good point that he's probably worth close to $8mil (well, an above average starting Center is; it's TBD if Asik is that). It's not just foul trouble, I think his conditioning has to improve. And he has to take some other steps forward offensively otherwise a coach just isn't going to play him enough.
   2647. jmurph Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4171261)
I think I'm mostly in agreement with the rest of you regarding the Celtics; bringing back Pierce and KG are no-brainers, I would just draw the line at Allen.
   2648. Booey Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4171272)
I finally got around to watching the Jordan flu game off my DVR. For those here who say it's been played up since then, I'm not sure about that. Marv Albert wouldn't shut up about how sick he was the entire game; seriously, every timeout, every dead ball, every time MJ did anything. Walton and Goukas played off that, and I'd bet that as much as anything else helped make that game so memorable. He sure looked sick, but had we had this thread at the time we would have been roasting Marv for how much he talked it up.


Sorry, I would've addressed this earlier but I was out of town for the weekend and am just now catching up on my BTF reading (what else am I gonna do at work?)

I never doubted that Jordan was sick (he sure LOOKED sick to me), but the diagnosis on just HOW sick he was seemed to get worse and worse as the game went on, and then even worse still as the years went on. Of course since he WAS playing sick to begin with, it's entirely possible that he really DID get worse as the game progressed, but Marv and the other commentators constantly mentioning it just added to the overhype, in my perfectly biased opinion. It's like they were trying to make sure the sick narrative took hold in peoples minds to guarantee that this game would become legendary, rather than just calling the game itself and letting the chips fall where they may. If the Bulls lost, there was a built in excuse: "Well, they only lost cuz Jordan was sick..." and if the Bulls won, well, that made MJ's effort even more heroic and an instant classic.

I'm not gonna pretend for a second that my bitterness over the outcome of the game isn't coloring my view, but I just don't see any other player getting the same amount of sympathy from the commentators during the game or in the years to follow had they been the ones who were ill. If it were Pippen or Stockton or Malone or (in other Finals) Kobe or Shaq or Garnett or Wade, I think that game would've been largely forgotten by now. Hell, Dirk played sick in the Finals just LAST year and it's already mostly forgotten. I think the only reason anyone remembers it at all is because of the clip of Wade and LeBron making fun of him. How much crap would Jazz players have taken from the media if they had been caught on camera making fun of MJ after the game?

A lot of players have played sick before. Several have gone on to have great games anyway. None have received nearly this same level of hype.
   2649. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4171276)
Hollinger has a good point that he's probably worth close to $8mil (well, an above average starting Center is; it's TBD if Asik is that). It's not just foul trouble, I think his conditioning has to improve. And he has to take some other steps forward offensively otherwise a coach just isn't going to play him enough.


Hollinger pointed this out in his post, and it was one of the first things I thought of when I heard the Houston rumors- McHale really does coach big men well. It is hard to say what Asik's ceiling is offensively (especially since the Bulls didn't ask him to do much on that end), but if he even gets to "passable," I think he is well on his way to being a very valuable player.
   2650. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:06 PM (#4171282)
I'm not sold on keeping Allen either. Memphis didn't renounce Mayo, right? A sign and trade is possible there, isn't it?
That's still mostly keeping the band together anyway, Allen is #4 of the big 3.

If I had to guess, it'd be the latter since that's what he's actually making that season.


Asik/conditioning: Sure. I just worry about the fouls as he's not worth the money if he's stuck at 25-28 mpg. I think he can get more passible offensively, at least.
   2651. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:16 PM (#4171301)
BTW, I like Miami playing small as much or more than the next guy, but they really ought to be chatting up Camby, right?
   2652. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4171308)
I'm seeing this rumor that Danny Ferry is close to pulling off some sort of black-magic deal where he actually gets rid of Joe Johnson's contract while receiving a useful player in return to boot.

I'm confused. First, by the possibility that the Hawks might make a smart, or even super-smart deal. That's not normal. But mostly by the cognitive dissonance wherein I attempt to think of Danny Ferry and not just want to kill the bastard for playing for Duke.
   2653. Conor Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4171316)
The Bulls, were they to match, would have the cap/tax hit of $15mil in year 3, which is also a year they look to be very, very deep into the tax, so he'd cost them $30mil! that season. Hollinger goes into more detail on why it's a 3 year and not 4 year deal (basically, if it went 4 years, the cap hit is higher for Houston now and lower for the Bulls, so it's really the perfect combo of loopholes that Houston has hit).


I think it would be even worse than $30 million. By the third year of that contract, depending on far over the tax the Bulls are, it would be at least $1.50 for every dollar over.
   2654. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4171321)
Don't worry, next we'll do something like send out Josh Smith in an S/T for Antawn Jamison.

More seriously, I don't think Ferry is good at drafting - and he's already tabbed a specialist (Jenkins) and an old dude (Scott) in year one (let's assume for the purpose of complaining that those were his calls, even though he's new to the scene).
   2655. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4171324)
I'm not sold on keeping Allen either. Memphis didn't renounce Mayo, right? A sign and trade is possible there, isn't it?


Mayo is unrestricted.
   2656. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4171326)
Right, but that doesn't preclude Bird rights / sign and trades - they just can't match offers.
   2657. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4171333)
Right, but that doesn't preclude Bird rights / sign and trades - they just can't match offers.


True, I have been looking at him from MN's perspective so I was mainly concerned with matching, but the S&T matters more to an over the cap team.
   2658. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:38 PM (#4171334)
I'm not sold on keeping Allen either. Memphis didn't renounce Mayo, right? A sign and trade is possible there, isn't it?


It's possible, sure, but by no means guaranteed. Who do you propose the Celtics give up in a sign and trade, though? Memphis is set on bigs and needs three-point shooting, so Green or Bass won't get it done, assuming they re-sign. Ray is old, but I don't think he's finished, and his shooting is like WD-40 for the offense. If Mayo's willing to play in Boston for the MLE, that's great, but that's less of a guarantee than, say, David West signing up last season. Beyond Mayo, every other viable shooter on the market is either too expensive or rubbish, and the Cs can double any other contender's offer for Ray while still giving him a paycut. I'd be a bit surprised if Shuttlesworth isn't back in green in a few weeks.
   2659. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4171339)
Oh, it would be a Ray (+?) / Mayo swap. We already know each team is interested in the other guy...
Mayo should cost more than Allen, while they're at it. (No - I don't think this idea will happen.)

I'm not convinced that Allen returns, personally. It's possible, but b/w interest from others, Boston's closing window, and presumed Allen/Rondo discord, I think he may move on.
Boston can offer the most money, though - hard to overlook that.
   2660. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4171347)
rumor! George Hill stays w/ Indy on a five year deal.
Anthony Davis out for Team America, severe ankle sprain.
   2661. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 02, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4171367)
More seriously, I don't think Ferry is good at drafting - and he's already tabbed a specialist (Jenkins) and an old dude (Scott) in year one (let's assume for the purpose of complaining that those were his calls, even though he's new to the scene).


Jenkins was particularly confusing as a draft choice, because he can shoot the ball, and there was a 3 with long wingspan available at the same time. That's like a double-whammy of un-Hawk like drafting. You don't get Marvin Williams by taking Chris Paul, ya know?
   2662. jmurph Posted: July 02, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4171372)
Things that aren't going to happen: If I'm running Brooklyn, assuming I can't actually trade for Howard this summer, I'm signing and trading Deron Williams for pieces and signing Steve Nash. I realize Deron is the better all-around player, but isn't Nash arguably at least as valuable from a marketing perspective?
   2663. The District Attorney Posted: July 02, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4171375)
I'm seeing this rumor that Danny Ferry is close to pulling off some sort of black-magic deal where he actually gets rid of Joe Johnson's contract while receiving a useful player in return to boot.
It's unclear whether you'd get the useful player. But that shouldn't stop you...
   2664. steagles Posted: July 02, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4171393)
More seriously, I don't think Ferry is good at drafting - and he's already tabbed a specialist (Jenkins) and an old dude (Scott) in year one (let's assume for the purpose of complaining that those were his calls, even though he's new to the scene).
i was a huge fan of mike scott coming out this year, so i don't really think it's fair to knock ferry for drafting him. he's not an elite physical specimen, but he should be able to score from day 1, and he should be at least a solid rebounder. for a PF, and especially one you're taking in the second round, that's really all you need.
   2665. jmurph Posted: July 02, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4171397)
Bucher on TV talking about Allen and the Clips, and Nash and the Nets. Allen to the Clips would be a great move, I would think.
   2666. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4171421)
WTF is MJ wearing. Good stuff.
   2667. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4171431)
I didn't like the Scott pick, but it wasn't horrific, like tabbing Sy a few years back. I think a good chunk of his success was by beating up on younger kids (he'll be 24 by opening night), he lacks projectability, size, and athleticism (both by combine figures and by lousy steal/block numbers). He's got a solid jumper, but not range. All in all, he looks like a below average NBA player, good overseas guy.
Instead... we could have gone with the similar, less polished, but more projectable Kyle O'Quinn. Or Darius Miller - who fits a different role (role player wing), but should do it well. Or...

***

I saw your post, Moses - and thought "that should be a tumblr", before I read the link...
   2668. Jimmy P Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4171436)
What does everything think Indiana's going to do with the max offer that Hibbert got?
   2669. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4171440)
How hard would it be for Michael Jordan to have someone make him clothes that fit?
   2670. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4171441)
What does everything think Indiana's going to do with the max offer that Hibbert got?


I'm really hoping they decline to match and that leaves Portland gun shy about matching Minny on Batum's offer.
   2671. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4171447)
Jrue wants a max extension. Might as well ask, I guess.
   2672. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4171452)
Hibbert: I don't have a strong feeling. Chad Ford said 51% chance match (iirc). I'd say 40% - can see them going cheaper with a Kaman type.

Hypothetical Q: Obviously, the rest of the roster matters for this question, but who would you rather have (independent of contract terms): Asik or Lin?
   2673. Booey Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4171454)
How hard would it be for Michael Jordan to have someone make him clothes that fit?


Still, you gotta give the guy props: is there anyone else in the world who could pull off the Hitler mustache he was sporting in those Hanes commercials?
   2674. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 02, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4171457)
I can think of one guy.
   2675. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4171462)
Still, you gotta give the guy props: is there anyone else in the world who could pull off the Hitler mustache he was sporting in those Hanes commercials?


Living or dead?
   2676. Booey Posted: July 02, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4171470)
Still, you gotta give the guy props: is there anyone else in the world who could pull off the Hitler mustache he was sporting in those Hanes commercials?


Living or dead?


Living. If you're refering to Chaplin, he had it before Hitler, so it didn't have the same negative stigma attached to it back then that it does now.
   2677. Jimmy P Posted: July 02, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4171488)
I'm really hoping they decline to match and that leaves Portland gun shy about matching Minny on Batum's offer.


I think Minny's overpaying Batum. But I've been much more down on Batum that just about anyone. Especially in this town.
   2678. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4171492)
I think Minny's overpaying Batum. But I've been much more down on Batum that just about anyone. Especially in this town.


You don't get great value for mid to high-end RFAs, but I think Batum is a really good player and a nice fit with Love/Rubio, so I don't mind paying a little too much.
   2679. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4171511)
And really, you should be counting Wade.


Well, we don't know for sure that Wade would have stayed in Miami without James coming. James of course signed last of the three and was supposedly still thinking about it up until the night before. That may be true, but then again it may not be. There has always been a lot of buzz to the effect that the three of them had been planning this for a long time.

But either way, I was responding to a guy asking about Howard and Brooklyn, and my opinion is that Howard probably believes that he would be better off--for basketball reasons--with Paul or Williams and filling in the rest on the run/cheap, having been with a team that had a lot of third-tier players but no No. 2 and came up short. Whether Howard is right remains to be seen.
   2680. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4171516)
is there anyone else in the world


Probably not, and I actually agree, for the most part, with Simmons on this. Jordan just has natural and unusual public charisma, even for a famous guy, and retains it to some extent in retirement owning a shitbag team.
   2681. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 02, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4171543)
I highly doubt this. I like that he claims the only year they made money was last year before the lockout.
   2682. smileyy Posted: July 02, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4171554)
I'll never believe an owner who says he's losing money, but I'll give him credit for recognizing a large part of sports team ownership:

“This is a hobby of passion, it’s not a business,”
   2683. GregD Posted: July 02, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4171562)
This Jared Jeffries Super Fisherman story is awesome: ESPN story
   2684. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4171572)
rumor! The Joe Johnson to NJ deal is a go (pending D-will signing):
Johnson = Anthony Morrow (1/4.0), Jordan Farmar (1/4.25; ATL will buy him out ... which I don't necessarily agree with), Jordan Williams, Johan Petro (1/3.5; we can't buyout this guy?), a s/t'd DeShawn Stevenson (no!!!) and the Rockets '13 1st (lottery protected). No MarShon, no Gerald Green (who I'm intrigued by).
Johnson's deal extends into the next presidential campaign - he'll be paid $24.89M in 2015-16.
   2685. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4171575)
No MarShon, no Gerald Green (who I'm intrigued by).


It is going to be funny if/when BK is paying Johnson/Wallace $35m in 2015 to back up those two guys.
   2686. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:20 PM (#4171578)
Green (for all intents and purposes) can't stay in town, right? - they don't have Bird rights.

ATL commitments past this season:
Horford (12M per for 4 more years)
Marvin (a 7.5M player opt for '13-14)
Jeff Teague (qualifying offer for $3.47M)
Jordan Williams (team opt for $0.88M)
Jenkins (rookie deal)
Stevenson (something, in all likelihood)

If you look at the tea leaves juuuust so - the Hawks could have room to do something significant next year.
   2687. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4171582)
No MarShon, no Gerald Green (who I'm intrigued by).
How sold are people on Green? The guy's always been an athletic freak, but for six seasons he was barely roster-worthy. Has he finally found to find his way as a legit NBA starter?
   2688. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4171586)
That's just crazy if the Hawks pull it off. A clear, 100% dump.

Probably had to be done though. Wow.
   2689. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4171590)
The problem I always had with Green, apart from the obvious stuff - is that he's just a shooter. Not a great defender, not a playmaker, doesn't get to the line a lot, uninteresting as a rebounder. All that leaves is shooting/scoring (and intangible stuff, which isn't his strength either). Before last year, he didn't shoot that well either, especially from two.
Last season:
781 min, 400 pts, 43-110 from three (39%), 111-210 from two (53%)
So, I go - okay, sample size fluke... but in the D-League:
673 min, 421 pts, 60-131 from three (46%), 97-196 from two (49%)
Plus the improved narrative... well, I wouldn't spend a lot, but I'd ring him up - check out his price.

   2690. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4171595)
Why are players given contracts that the majority of people paying attention seem to know with absolute certainty are only going to be come albatrosses (ie Joe Johnson)? Is it because the teams have to spend the money on someone? Or Atlanta just figures that was their only was to at least stay competitive for a while even if it might be bad long-term?
   2691. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:48 PM (#4171602)
Der:

Per Chad Ford -
DeShawn Stevenson sign-and-trade as part of Nets-Hawks Joe Johnson swap is 3 years, $6.9 M. Only 1st year ($2.3M) guaranteed.


Also, David Aldridge is saying the deal is going to happen even if DWill doesn't resign.
   2692. Jimmy P Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4171605)
Or Atlanta just figures that was their only was to at least stay competitive for a while even if it might be bad long-term?

This. Their choice was to massively overpay, or lose him and drop, what, 5 wins? Once you get to the All-Star caliber players, the "Let him walk" theory begins to start hurting you more than him. That's a really tough threshold to test.
   2693. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4171612)
RT @Chris_Broussard: If Hawks-Nets deal goes through, Nets are no longer in race for Dwight Howard. Cap room for D12 will be gone.
23 minutes ago


There is also an article up at ESPN quoting Howard, saying his "wish list is one team"--the Nets.

Batum would be a nice get for the Wolves, but IMO Portland will match.
   2694. Zipperholes Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:07 PM (#4171621)
I get that it's a terrible financial commitment, but I don't understand how Williams-Johnson-Wallace-Humphries-Lopez isn't a damn good starting five for the short term.
   2695. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:11 PM (#4171625)
This. Their choice was to massively overpay, or lose him and drop, what, 5 wins? Once you get to the All-Star caliber players, the "Let him walk" theory begins to start hurting you more than him. That's a really tough threshold to test.


The funny part is that the first couple of years of the Johnson deal weren't such an absurd overpay. He was still performing well and figured to be a fringe all-star for the first couple of years before dropping off and being an albatross for the last 3-4 years of the deal (while his salary increased). Atlanta was able to get the semi-defensible parts of the deal while unloading just the bad part.

Batum would be a nice get for the Wolves, but IMO Portland will match.


Hibbert would start at about $14m, right? Two lottery picks would total about $6m. While it doesn't count against the tax, they are still paying Roy about $17m. If they also matched Batum at about $10-12m, that would bring the total bill for the team over $70m for a non-contender. that's why I think there is a chance of letting him go if they get Hibbert.
   2696. andrewberg Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:14 PM (#4171631)
I get that it's a terrible financial commitment, but I don't understand how Williams-Johnson-Wallace-Humphries-Lopez isn't a damn good starting five for the short term.


I think it is solid. They may get as high as 4-5 in the East. Wallace will likely crater since he has limited skills outside of his dissipating athleticism. Lopez remains a question mark due to health, rebounding, and defense (probably in that order). They are also pretty thin up front for a team without dependable starters.

For the record, I think bidding against themselves to give Wallace a 4th year was dumb (and trading the lotto pick for him in the first place, too). I think taking on that long-term commitment for an aging guard like Johnson is dumb. And I think torching the cap space that Howard seemed really intent on filling was dumb. Still, those two players are pretty useful now.
   2697. Jimmy P Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4171637)
Batum would be a nice get for the Wolves, but IMO Portland will match.


I'm not so sure. There's a lot of bad blood between Portland, Batum, and his agent. Portland's still got a decent amount of wings, and if they can actually keep Hibbert, I think they let him walk to keep some cap room.
   2698. rr Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4171639)
that's why I think there is a chance of letting him go if they get Hibbert.


I don't think they will, but even if they do, I think they would see a Batum/Aldridge/Hibbert front line as one that could keep them relevant for several years.

But, if there is something personal going on, like Jimmy says, maybe they let Batum leave.
   2699. Jimmy P Posted: July 02, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4171643)
I get that it's a terrible financial commitment, but I don't understand how Williams-Johnson-Wallace-Humphries-Lopez isn't a damn good starting five for the short term.

The thing I don't get is, if you're Deron and you see that lineup and that budget for the next few years, why lock yourself in? You're basically saying you're cool with being the 4 seed at your peak
   2700. PJ Martinez Posted: July 02, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4171689)
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