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I was just about to write that Miller is essentially a smoldering corpse at this point.
What an amazing game by James. He's earning that King title tonight.
By the way, Wade is contributing absolutely nothing. I will wager that no one will criticize him for this. Sucks to be LeBron--except for tonight!
I had a bad feeling as I logged on that the troll talking point would be that he's a pants pisser because he doesn't do this every game. Whatever. I'm just going to enjoy.
Primer RT:
Indeed. That happens sometimes when you get old and are banged up--even to a great player like Pierce.
45 points and 15 rebounds. Game 7 on Saturday.
Like the Beat LA Chant back in 1982.
I'm almost not even upset. LeBron was just unbelievable.
Skip is sports Limbaugh. It its funny to anticipate how low they'll sink to stay in character.
In a final round of the Heat and OKC, since both teams feature young stars the youth difference won't be nearly as critical. I haven't seen much of OKC to base this on, but from what little I've seen I think they'll give Miami more balance accompanied by stamina than the Heat can handle. OKC can keep firing back against James and Wade on a level that the Celtics simply can't match over the long haul.
What's often amazing to me about BTF is the seemingly continuing and reflexive way that some people's rooting interests are so rigidly formed by taking a 180 degree opposite view of what they think the MSM are telling them. It's as if they're following George Costanza's "I'll do the opposite" script. Truly a fascinating phenomenon that's every bit as silly as the way other people take whatever Lupica or Francessa say as gospel.
This would be fairly easy to study, but until it is, I am not going to assume it's true. Age didn't seem to hurt Nowitzki much in the 4th quarter of Game 6 last year. OTOH, a lot of people attributed Boston's Game 7 loss in 2010 to "running out of gas." Ginobili didn't play well in Game 6, but Duncan had a 25/14. Stephen Jackson hit 6/7 from the arc and would have been a hero if SA had held on. Kobe had 42 on 18/33 shooting in the Lakers' last loss; that was only a Game 5, but it was his best game of the playoffs and the schedule in that series was very compact. There may be something to it, but I would guess it varies from guy to guy. I think what happened to Boston tonight was mostly LeBron James, with a little Chris Bosh* making things easier for everyone, and Pierce showing his age/not being 100% thrown in.
*I posted Haberstroh with some numbers showing how Miami hit better on 3s this year with Bosh out there, as they did tonight, even though he doesn't shoot them himself. Might be coincidence, but it also might be that with him out there commanding a defender in the key, there is more room for the spot-up guys.
The last true "white knights" of basketball by a standard of hyper-intelligent team basketball featuring a minimum of "athletic" talent may have been the 1973 Knicks. Monroe was a shadow of his former self, Reed was long past his peak, and Bradley and DeBusschere weren't being mistaken for Pete Maravich. Frazier was their one "athletic" starter still in his prime, and he was primarily known as a playmaker and a defender, not a one-on-one offensive player. That team lived for pattern plays and hitting the open man, and it took them to a World's Championship.
Do you not have idiot friends and coworkers who are exactly the same way? Does it not drive you nuts? It drives me f'ing bonkers. The amount I read about Lebron being nicknamed "75 cent" or something like that, it drives me nuts, because it's completely lacking in empirical support. Of course, I've come around *the other* way on this. I got into a bit of an email spat with a prominent NBA writer about heroball the other day, because I think the NBA staterati can get way too set in their ways and lose an empirical, skeptical point of view about the world the other way. Nonetheless, this isn't just knee jerk contrarianism. Tonight I watched Lebron James obliterate my favorite team in a closeout game to go to the NBA Finals, and I watched in awe thinking of all the people who decided they knew who Lebron James was at his core have to eat crow.
Hope you had more fun than I did with Henry Abbott.
Obviously, this is likely skewed by garbage time, but still worth noting.
Denial: not just a river in Egypt. They're going to get dismantled again tomorrow night more or less the way they did last night.
I have no doubt Boston thinks this was the case. It's been their M.O. during the entire Pierce/Garnett/Allen/Rondo run. Their confidence in their own abilities vastly exceeds the reality of the situation, which I think explains all of the game 7s against obviously weaker teams (not the Heat, but the Hawks and Sixers of the world). Was talking to my dad right before the game and I guaranteed they would come out slow, but I thought that slow start would be over after the first. Trying not to psychoanalyze, but they played like the series was over, like they already did the hard part in Miami and the Heat were just going to fold up shop. It was an embarassing performance.
I think Wade needs to step up. I think I saw a stat that he is scoring like 5 points in the first half this series, on like 25% FG shooting. That's just pathetic.
I agree with this, and your overall take. I have no idea what to expect in game 7. I think it's highly unlikely we see another Boston no-show, and it's also unlikely (though a little less so) that Lebron goes off again. He's going to need help.
I'm in awe of what Lebron did. I was expected something that looked more like this. He doesn't need to score 45 again, what Miami needs to do is keep up the defensive intensity for 48 minutes with minimal lapses.
As people have pointed out, Miami scored 30 points that 4th quarter. At the end Boston made the big clutch plays and Miami didn't, but they could have avoided the crunch time situations entirely. All they had to do was get back on defense. It's not like the Celtics had a great game offensively - they shot 41%, but without a few easy transition situations they could have been limited further.
They should be able to bring that intensity and focus to the court, but you never know, there is no excuse for not bringing it in a game 5 of a 2-2 series.
As far as age being a factor: Allen, Pierce, and Garnett are not the same players they were 4 years ago. That is why Miami has the better team. If those guys were 4 years younger Celtics would have probably won in 5. Beyond that, the idea that aging teams have a special disadvantage the deeper you go into the playoffs, I'm skeptical. The elderly, worn-out Pierce you saw last night was only 2 days older than the one who hit the dagger in game 5. And while his overall shooting line was 6-19, he was the one defending James, who finished 11-25.
I'd love it if Pierce was suddenly too old to score or be even a roadbump to slow down James. But I don't think that's the case. Just a bad game for him, and you still have to fear him in game 7.
I'll admit to having felt this pull before, yeah.
Game 7: Within the last week, both teams have looked great, both teams have looked lousy. I'll wait to see who shows up next.
Athleticism somewhat aside, but I think the recent incarnations of the Spurs qualify here. Also, I agree - the Thunder very much do not qualify here, with their iso heavy system. Don't get me wrong - they're quite likable - just a different model.
David Thorpe was tweeting during the game about KG not scoring with Bosh on the floor. So there's plenty of blame to go around were anyone to be so inclined...
We only have one game with a healthy or semi-healthy Bosh. So I'm not sure how much any of the first 4/5 games really tell us.
Even before last night, Pierce was having a sub-par series. He's also hurt.
This is an internet phenomenon. I've never heard anyone in real life say things like "I have no interest in the Giants but I hope Barry Bonds breaks the home run record so Skip Bayless will be annoyed", or talk about how much they hate Ryan Howard because he keeps getting undeserved MVP votes. But it seems like there's this tendency in people to just have a hair-trigger backlash when they think they're being told what to think on a certain topic, and therefore hate everything that seems overrated and love everything that seems underrated. In real life they fear being crucified on the wheel of conventional wisdom, but in cyberspace they can vent.
It's like we're all a bunch of Sean Hannitys, saying "What more reason do you need to vote for this woman? She annoys liberals! Therefore she's perfect!"
I do say this sort of stuff in real life. My primary team (the Lakers) and all secondary teams that I have a rooting interest in (Warriors, 76ers) are out of the playoffs, and I have to pick which team I will curse with my temporary fandom. Confounding the MSM narrative is just as good a reason as anything else. If the Lakers play the Heat in the Finals next year (hah!), I'll go back to hating LeBron as the chokingest choker who ever choked.
No one thinks he'll be a good NBA player, do they? I haven't been following much draft talk.
I do, personally. He's not likely to be a difference maker, top 5 in the NBA kind of guy, but I can see him turning into Paul Millsap.
Edit: Ben Wallace played center in the NBA at 6'8.
EDIT: Don't think he has Millsap's athleticism. More like an upscale Craig Smith type.
Is picking a sub-6'8" center "low risk"? I'm not seeing it.
Ben Wallace was 7 feet tall with the 'fro.
I don't think anyone thinks he's going to be a great defender - good technique + bad body (in terms of pro d) should make him a liability, but not as problematic as the Blairs of the world. Also, I see him as a combo big man - playing the four (where he'll be slow) or five (where he'll be short), based on matchups and other personnel on his team.
I like the Scola comp more than Millsap.
Cosign. We have no idea what will happen in game 7.
That was the exact comp I was thinking of. He has the profile of an underrated college big man, except he was so good as a frosh that he's not underrated. Late lotto and ok starter are probably appropriate for him.
This is an internet phenomenon....It's like we're all a bunch of Sean Hannitys, saying "What more reason do you need to vote for this woman? She annoys liberals! Therefore she's perfect!"
That's a crude way of putting it, but it's not too bad an analogy It has the added advantage of being able to let yourself think that you're in possession of some special font of wisdom that the Big Bad MSM will never acknowledge, either because they're hopelessly compromised or because they're just so stupid.
Cosign. We have no idea what will happen in game 7.
Boston's obviously a much better team than they looked like last night, and I don't think they'll cave. But I do think that towards the end of the 3rd quarter they'll be playing catchup ball until the final buzzer. If I had to guess I'd say it'll wind up Miami by about 10 to 15. The only way I can see a different outcome would be if the Heat stupidly tries to let James do it all by himself and starts waiting around for it to happen, and then James reacts by reverting to his passive endgame performances from previous years. But that's a wish, not a prediction.
Same here. I am cringing at the thought of articles praising Derek Fisher as Mr. Clutchy McTools Championship Winner if the Thunder win. Otherwise I would root for them if Boston loses. Conversely I wanted the Spurs to win because I don't think enough is written about Duncan (recent SI article aside).
Poz, Friday: "He went to the dark place!"
Meh.
This exactly.
I also agree with "we have no idea what will happen in game 7" and Sullinger being a soiid pick in the late lottery (the Millsap comp isn't bad, with the caveat that Millsap's development was of course far better than expected and the current Millsap is not who we should expect Sully to be -- that's a 90th percentile projection -- but I think he will contribute).
I think Poz is 100% right, as distasteful as that is.
perry jones' lack of wingspan. 7'1 is not terrible, but when drummond measures at 7'6, and davis measures at 7'5, it is a bit underwhelming.
tyler zeller's not awful wingspan. i was expecting something like 6'10 for him, but he measured at 7' even. that's really not good, especially not for someone who expects to play a lot of center, but it's not gonna drop him out of the top 20.
the size of meyers leonard (7'1, 250, with a 7'3 wingspan). as i noted in 2010, i usually start off the draft process hating every white big man that is projected to go in the first round. sometimes, i never stop hating them (koufos, mullens, and hawes would be examples of that) and sometimes i actually grow to like them (aldrich and vucevic would be examples of that), but this year, i'm definitely a fan of leonard, and definitely not a fan of zeller. i think leonard's athleticism makes him a much more intriguing prospect.
john henson and kyle o'quinn both topped the combine in standing reach, at 9'3.5. i'm a big fan of both players.
i don't really think there were any big surprises.
I'm not arguing Blair will be better than Sullinger -- just that he was the first (somewhat shorter) body comp that comes to mind. Which I realize can be significant, given that Sullinger is already on the low end of desired height.
That's a freakish wingspan for Kyle O'Quinn.
I think his athleticism is different than many of those other guys you named. He just isn't anywhere near polished of a player yet. There was definitely some development between his freshman and sophomore years. He's good enough now to make a defensive impact (depending on foul trouble), but it's going to be several years until he's anything more than a put back/alley oop offensive player. He has ok form on him jump shot though, so that's something. While I don't want to say he has this high of a ceiling, there were many times when watching him play these past couple years where he reminded me a of fresh out of HS Tyson Chandler. He even has a similar build (Meyers isn't as skinny as Tyson was at that age, but isn't as muscular as Tyson is now but I could see him getting there eventually).
Count me in as well. I missed the first 10 minutes of the game and couldn't see the score when I first turned in. But there was Lebron with a look on his face that seemed malevolent. I get it, that facial interpretations and body language reading is probably 90% bs, but he seemed to be a different guy last night. I think we saw his Dark Willow side come out last night.
Looked/acted- okay, he smiled less. Good luck establishing any causation there. The simplest explanation is probably that it was a huge, huge game. Played? No. He plays that way often. We may not have seen him attack the basket early in games that much since he has been in Miami, but he definitely did it in Cleveland, and there have been times when he came out like that in Miami (usually without the gaudy final totals because they are up by enough to rest him if he has a huge half in the regular season). The difference is that he made a ton of tough shots. Did his muscle fibers conspire with his synapses to react more perfectly under these tense circumstances? I haven't a clue.
I also noted Terrence Ross' sub-4% body fat. He's making Ray Allen look like Greg Ostertaag.
How does his size and athleticism compare to Boozer? Boozer was a great, polished college player, but slipped in the drafted because people didn't think he was athletic enough.
There's no question that Poz is 100% correct here.
It's almost like before the game, James said to himself "f*ck this sh*t" and flipped a switch inside. Instead of just going out there to play a game and have fun last night, he finally decided to unleash the raging beast within.
If he played with that kind of passion, energy, determination, aggressiveness, and I would say even fury every game, he would never have to hear any crap from anyone ever again.
Of course if the Heat lose game 7 or lose to the Thunder all that nonsense will probably start right back up.
All that because a guy smiles less than we're used to, huh?
And performs better at the same time.
If the Thunder don't win a title, maybe we'll hear about how Kevin Durant lost his smile too.
Everybody knows that smiling is a sign of weakness of character. That's why Magic was so terrible.
Sullinger v. Boozer: Both measured 6-07.75 barefoot. Sullinger came in 10 pounds heavier (268 to 258), with a slightly lesser wingspan (85.25" v. 86.25"). So, pretty close.
Sullinger v. Blair: Beyond the size difference, Sullinger's always had a pretty solid rep as a "percentage" defender, afaict - whereas Blair's was more middling. IIRC (questionable + I'm overgeneralizing), Blair was thought to defend with his arms a bit - poking out steals and such, as opposed to getting in your way.
I've really enjoyed the what makes LeBron so great and why he's brought the Cavs so far is the joy he plays with always so loose and smiling what makes LeBron fail and the Cavs come up short in the postseason is that he doesn’t have that seriousness/killer-instinct Kobe/MJ/etc. had what makes LeBron and the Heat fail to live up to expectations is that they were playing too tight and serious, this isn’t the same joyful LeBron we know what makes LeBron and the Heat different this year is that LeBron is back to that happy place he was in with the Cavs when he played so excellently what makes the Heat about to lose to the Celtics is that LeBron just doesn’t have the edge The Great Ones do what made LeBron so incredible last night was how no-nonsense he was…rollercoaster. Six Flags should invest in one.
If they lose game 7 against the Celtics, Lebron's rep is right back to where it was 24 hours ago. It's hard to imagine a situation where his rep survives intact but the Heat lose. I guess he could score 40, do it consistently (score in the 4th as well as the first), have the rest of the Heat shoot as bad as last night, and lose if Boston goes 12-18 on threes or something. That seems unlikely. For the Celtics to win James probably has to have a subpar game by his standards.
If Miami wins game 7, I can see a situation where he goes off on OKC, shoots great throughout the series, makes some big steals, averages 35 per game, and OKC's offense is just too much and they win 4 shootouts. OKC has home court, has generally played stronger in the playoffs, and I don't think Lebron will get too much blame if he loses well to them.
I mean, in the Finals, I'd favor OKC over Boston, but I wouldn't bet large sums of money on it. The C's are title contenders in this playoffs, so a loss for them means something too.
But this is the modern media -- there's only room for one narrative
Depends on the optics. One of the things that makes The Jordan Narrative The Jordan Narrative is that addition to the substance, he has the The Optics: The Shot, The Shrug, The Follow Through (after the push off). Right now, James' Optics are The Checked Shirt and The Pep Rally, and his sound bites are "South Beach" and "not five...". So, even if he averaged 37 a game, if they lost, and he has a memorable, very bad, optical moment, he will take as much crap as ever.
To address Andy's point, the tension isn't "smart" vs. "stupid." It is narrative vs. analysis. Skip Bayless may or may not be "smarter" than I am, but his interests revolve exclusively around narratives, sensationalism, and provocativeness. I am actually more interested in narratives than most guys in this thread are, but I like to keep them and analysis distinct in my mind, and note the places where I think they overlap.
No one commented on it, but prior to Game 5, I linked to and quoted Zach Lowe of SI.com, who is one of the more even-handed of the new-breed stat-oriented writers. Lowe's take--that James sometimes looks to pass when a Kobe/Wade type would shoot, and that works both for and against his team in crunch time--is IMO correct. James is, as Simmons said, more the "evolutionary Oscar and Magic" than he is a Jordan-styled player, like (obviously) Kobe, and to a lesser extent, Wade.
What I saw last night was:
1. James looked to score, period. Not that he played selfishly, but that he focused more on "eating first" to use the new meme.
2. His jumpers were falling, and when that happens he is absolutely unguardable.
3. Bosh's presence does in fact make a difference in Miami's spacing that is noticeable and has an effect Garnett's ability to roam in this particular matchup.
Add that to the stoic facial expressions, and last night James was a "killer."
As to Game 7, the safe, obvious pick is that Boston will can more 3s, Pierce will shoot better, James will play (for him) a "normal" game, and the game will be competitive, but Miami will prevail by 5-10 points--90-83, something like that.
Really? I would. I imagine they'd have pretty significant odds in Vegas.
I cruised by a Boston blog, and the guy there just killed Pierce for his shooting. It sounded--exactly--like the way a couple of Lakers Bloggers went off on Kobe after the 6/28 showing in Denver. The guy may have cooled down this morning, but he basically accused Pierce of being stubborn, stupid, selfish, and of really hurting the team. I almost posted and said, "Lakers fan here--think you are being too hard on PP" but thought better of it.
As far as the narrative about Boston:
They won in 2008 when they had the best team
They did not have Garnett in 2009
They were underdogs in 10 and they are underdogs now
So, no, they are not going to take much crap in the MSM.
Which one was The Shot? The game winner over Craig Ehlo and Cleveland?
1. and 3. are the most important factors to me. If James' shot is falling, it really doesn't matter what's going on, he's going to pile up points. The important thing for Miami is that he looks for his shot, because if he's aggressive on offense, just by himself he puts a ton of pressure on Boston's defense so even if his shot isn't falling, he's making the defense move and shift and scramble to cover him and that opens up the court for other things to happen. If Bosh is around, that makes it doubly easy for James, since it keeps KG from getting a pass at guarding anyone at all and lets him hog the paint.
The Heat work best when they play a less extreme version of the Sixers' Iverson offense, with James dominating the ball and making decisions. The criticism from Game 5, when he wasn't aggressive in the 4th and didn't try to get to the ball, was completely valid. The psychoanalysis that went along with that was over the top, but what happened was obviously a problem, and they obviously addressed it in Game 6.
Yep.
Me too, but would you be surprised when the Celtics D smothered them, Allen and Pierce are alive for enough games and Rondo is able to dial it up for enough games to win? I wouldn't.
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