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Saturday, March 03, 2012

OT: NBA Monthly Thread, March 2012

I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the inevitable blacklash against Linsanity, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: Ryan Braun Urine, Players Being in the Best Shape of Their Lives, and what Eric Chavez thinks about the Moneyball movie.

Tripon Posted: March 03, 2012 at 08:39 AM | 1861 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. JJ1986 Posted: March 05, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4074183)
Gave my top 5 NBA PGs on SC this morning. 6-10: Rondo, Irving, Nash, Rubio, Lowry.


Rose, Paul, Williams, Westbrook and ???
   102. Jimmy P Posted: March 05, 2012 at 01:38 PM (#4074188)
Rose, Paul, Williams, Westbrook and ???


I bet Tony Parker
   103. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 05, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4074189)
right now, the sixers really have 3 weaknesses. they're weak at the FT line (they have, by far, the worst FT/FGA ratio in the NBA). they're weak at the 3 point line (from a volume standpoint), and they're weak on the offensive glass (where the only team worse than them is the celtics).

you know the really annoying thing is that collins is so forceful about preventing turnovers**, but they give possessions away on the glass, and they give points away at the FT line. if they could sure up those two things, these late game issues they seem to have would just melt into insignificance.


These things are all related, IMO. If your playing style/culture/coaching staff is such that everyone is fine with long 2s, then you won't go to the FT line because you are not driving and you won't take lots of 3s because guys will feel comfortable taking a 22 ft 2 (compare this to a situation with teams whose guys literally look down when they catch the ball to make sure what they're taking is a 3 and not a 2). And going cold from long 2 isn't so much about underestimating the effect of tired legs as it is that it is the lowest value shot in basketball and it's foolish to make a living off of it (with all apologies to Durant, Dirk, etc.).
   104. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 05, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4074191)
[99] Who was his 1-5? Paul, Rose, Westbrook, Deron Williams...?
   105. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 05, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4074193)
i underestimated the effects of tired legs.
How can you say that? They're a young team that didn't get pushed early on, and with the exception of Iguodala, just got off a week-long vacation not too long ago. They only have two guys, Iguodala and Holiday, averaging over 28 minutes per game. Tired legs? No. They're hitting the contenders regularly now, and we're seeing the difference between the Sixers and the top tier teams.

i'm gonna say that the bulls lose big.
That's just bitterness talking.
   106. steagles Posted: March 05, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4074242)
How can you say that? They're a young team that didn't get pushed early on, and with the exception of Iguodala, just got off a week-long vacation not too long ago. They only have two guys, Iguodala and Holiday, averaging over 28 minutes per game. Tired legs? No. They're hitting the contenders regularly now, and we're seeing the difference between the Sixers and the top tier teams.
i think fatigue is playing a part of it. they're playing good teams, and they're losing to good teams, but prior to the all star break, the team hadn't had consecutive days off since january 3. and even at the all star break, they only had 1 day where they could practice as a team, and the next day they started a back to back against detroit and OKC.


That's just bitterness talking.
well, i really have been consistent in my denigrations of the bulls. it's not like it's anything new for me to say they're gonna lose to a team that's actually good.
   107. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 05, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4074263)
prior to the all star break, the team hadn't had consecutive days off since january 3.
Yeah, but then they had the All-Star break. Every team's dealing with the compressed schedule and the lack of practices. Philly's got a young squad with a deep rotation; they don't get to use that excuse. Moreover, they beat Detroit by nearly 30 and GSW by 22; they certainly didn't look tired then. Catching the Thunder on the back end of a back-to-back might have been rough, but they had a day off before the catching Bulls at the tail end of a 3-game roadie. If there was a tired team on the floor last night, it should have been Chicago, not home team Philly.
   108. steagles Posted: March 05, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4074289)
Yeah, but then they had the All-Star break. Every team's dealing with the compressed schedule and the lack of practices. Philly's got a young squad with a deep rotation; they don't get to use that excuse. Moreover, they beat Detroit by nearly 30 and GSW by 22; they certainly didn't look tired then. Catching the Thunder on the back end of a back-to-back might have been rough, but they had a day off before the catching Bulls at the tail end of a 3-game roadie. If there was a tired team on the floor last night, it should have been Chicago, not home team Philly.
you can say that they don't get to use it as an excuse, but you can't say that it hasn't been a factor.



and another one just for shits and giggles: for the sixers to get to the 47 wins i had them pegged at prior to the season, they'll need to finish the year 25-3. that does not seem likely.
   109. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 05, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4074293)
you can say that they don't get to use it as an excuse, but you can't say that it hasn't been a factor.
Sure, it's a factor. It's a factor that every other team in the league has had to deal with. I don't see it impacting the Sixers uniquely.
   110. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4074305)
catching Bulls at the tail end of a 3-game roadie

Just for the sake of comparison, that 3 game roadie put the Bulls back at the top of the NBA in number of road games (tied with Sac at 23). The Bulls have more road wins than the Sixers have had road games. Last night was game 5 in 7 nights for the Bulls (tonight is 6 in 8). The Bulls game tonight is also their 40th of the season; they're the first team to hit that mark. Tired legs do happen and are a factor - and there's a good chance that does happen to the Bulls tonight; if nothing else all this extra "rivalry" stuff might actually help them since it's a reason to be up for the game.

   111. steagles Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4074313)
Sure, it's a factor. It's a factor that every other team in the league has had to deal with. I don't see it impacting the Sixers uniquely.
not uniquely, but i do think it's hurt the sixers in 2 very distinct ways. the lack of practice has hurt their late game execution. part of the reason they haven't improved at it has been that they haven't had the opportunity to improve at it. practice time may not have fixed the issue, but i don't think there's been a team that's been more acutely hurt by the lack of it than the sixers.


and because the sixers get their offense primarily through mid range jump shots, i think they are hurt more by fatigue than most any other team. they don't really get easy points in the post or off the glass or at the FT line, so when their shot is off, the offense completely bogs down. now, maybe that's a fatal flaw that would be present regardless of the compact schedule, so maybe you'd argue that the fatigue is not the main factor in the offense's regression, but watching the team every day, i'm fairly confident in saying that it is.
   112. Jimmy P Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4074315)
but i don't think there's been a team that's been more acutely hurt by the lack of it than the sixers.

Considering the Blazers record in games under 5 points, I think Portland gets this claim first.
   113. oscar gamble's afro pick Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4074322)
102--nobody watch my man Ty Lawson last night??
   114. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:29 PM (#4074325)
[113] Not much difference between him and Ray Felton.
   115. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4074332)
I know this is the golden age for point guards, but is there something external (say, the advent of zone defenses, a change in coaching styles)to the players that is making it so? In another era, would these point guards stand out so much? And would someone like Isiah be even better now? Do these questions make sense?
   116. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4074333)
rules on handchecking + 3pt line
   117. oscar gamble's afro pick Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4074334)
114--This is not serious, right?
VERY DIFFERENT PLAYERS,
U R RONG
[ps--apologies if you are engaging in some form of inside NBA thread irony]
   118. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4074335)
he's yanking your chain
   119. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4074337)
[117] Screwing with Jimmy P (I think) from an earlier discussion in the thread.
   120. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4074338)
the lack of practice has hurt their late game execution. part of the reason they haven't improved at it has been that they haven't had the opportunity to improve at it. practice time may not have fixed the issue, but i don't think there's been a team that's been more acutely hurt by the lack of it than the sixers.

How is this different than any other team though? Wasn't one of the advantages the Sixers had over almost every other team minimal roster turnover, meaning the lack of practice was supposed to not affect them as much?

and because the sixers get their offense primarily through mid range jump shots, i think they are hurt more by fatigue than most any other team. they don't really get easy points in the post or off the glass or at the FT line, so when their shot is off, the offense completely bogs down. now, maybe that's a fatal flaw that would be present regardless of the compact schedule, so maybe you'd argue that the fatigue is not the main factor in the offense's regression, but watching the team every day, i'm fairly confident in saying that it is.

Also, another advantage was supposed to be their youth and depth. We've gotten plenty of stories about guys not in game shape this year (like the Mavs with Dirk and Odom, for instance), has this been a problem with Philly? Again, relatively speaking, the Sixers have had an easier work load than most teams. Unless you're watching every team every day, you just don't know that the fatigue is any worse than any other team - all of which are facing similar factors.
   121. oscar gamble's afro pick Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4074342)
[118-19] (wipes Tar Heel/Nugget blue froth from mouth)--thanks guys...
   122. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4074343)
i don't think there's been a team that's been more acutely hurt by the lack of it than the sixers.
Really? The Sixers came back with the same coach and essentially the same roster from the year before. Off the top of my head, the Lakers got a new coach with a new system, dumping the system they ran for a decade. The Clippers got not one but two new point guards and three new starters altogether. Minnesota got a new coach and two lottery rookies to fit into their system. Those three teams weren't more "acutely hurt by the lack of" practice than the Sixers? This just sounds like excuse-making.
   123. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 05, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4074344)
+1 - moses, el hombre
   124. andrewberg Posted: March 05, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4074360)
i don't think there's been a team that's been more acutely hurt by the lack of it than the sixers.


I bet fans of about 25 teams would say that their team has been uniquely hurt by the lack of practice in late-game situations. Execution has not been good for almost anyone.

In another era, would these point guards stand out so much? And would someone like Isiah be even better now? Do these questions make sense?


I have thought about this topic a great deal. It reminds me of the chapter in Brushbacks and Knockdowns about the rise in homeruns through the 1990s. Were steroids a factor? Possibly, maybe even probably. But there were also factors like smaller parks, different bat construction, new training regimens, different strategic goals by teams, different ball specifications, and other factors that influence it, and that doesn't even account for the "unknown unknowns."

You could debate for weeks about how to portion out the responsibility of different factors on this era, but the zones, handchecking and threes (as Der K said), coaching trends (re: smallball defenses and other things), ref tendencies, and even possibly less quantifiable changes in how the game is learned/taught (I tend to think that guys getting pegged into a position earlier through AAU probably helps the designated PGs develop PG skills but trades off with some versatile skills such as midrange shooting). Suffice to say, I don't think there's an "answer."

Edit: my god is that post hard to read. Rather than editing it, I'm going to let it stand as a monument to my general sense of confusion today.
   125. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 05, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4074372)
I was listening to that Simmons podcast with Daryl Morey from over the weekend. When they were talking about Jeremy Lin, Morey said end-of-the-bench veterans are easier for coaching staffs to manage than rookies.

It makes sense, but goes against what I intuitively thought, which is selectively remembering guys who feel a sense of entitlement .
   126. Jimmy P Posted: March 05, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4074377)
[117] Screwing with Jimmy P (I think) from an earlier discussion in the thread.


I will never live this down.
   127. andrewberg Posted: March 05, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4074382)
It makes sense, but goes against what I intuitively thought, which is selectively remembering guys who feel a sense of entitlement .


I took that to mean that there are always issues with guys wanting to get minutes, but at least with the vets, they know how to fit into a system once they're on the floor.
   128. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 05, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4074384)
mcgrady has a point - he's merited more pt this year.
   129. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 05, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4074391)
It makes sense, but goes against what I intuitively thought, which is selectively remembering guys who feel a sense of entitlement .

It's how guys like Brian Scalabrine and John Lucas III have jobs - good practice players, they know the systems/have familiarity with the coaching staff, and are the chemistry types. They don't need much attention, like some rookies might. I think it's probably a bad idea to only have veterans there - guys like Lin are worthwhile gambles and more teams should fill those last spots with guys that have upside (and if there was a real, valuable developmental league - and not one that gave playing time to guys like Antoine Walker and Greg Ostertag* - teams could just assign those guys there).

*I could have said Ricky Davis here, but I never liked Ostertag.
   130. steagles Posted: March 05, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4074425)

I bet fans of about 25 teams would say that their team has been uniquely hurt by the lack of practice in late-game situations. Execution has not been good for almost anyone.
other teams have simpler late game sets. dump it in the post to howard. iso derrick rose. pick and roll with paul and griffin.

it doesn't take a whole lot of practice time to hone those kinds of sets, but for better or worse (and so far, it's only been worse), the sixers have decided to run something else.


you, know for everything that truehoop runs about kobe's late game proclivities, i'd really like to see their take on the sixers late game comedy of horrors. i think it'd actually be an interesting lens to view this argument. when kobe iso's, it usually guarantees 3 things: 1, he won't turn the ball over. 2, he'll get the shot off. and 3, he'll take enough time off the clock that the opposition won't get a good look to come back.

right now, in any given late game set they run, the sixers are guaranteed to do exactly none of those things, and it's an issue.



and yeah, i know they're not a 10 win team, but they have 22 wins right now and they could have 28.
   131. rr Posted: March 05, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4074433)
Lowe ran a piece on the 76ers late game stuff.
   132. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 05, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4074447)
other teams have simpler late game sets. dump it in the post to howard. iso derrick rose. pick and roll with paul and griffin.

Yep, iso, Rose. That's all the Bulls do.
   133. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 05, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4074455)
KBergCBS: #Nets just announced that Lopez will be in a walking boot as a precaution and will miss three weeks.


That means he doesn't play again until after the trade deadline. If the Magic want the Nets deal (and it doesn't sound like they do), it's going to be even harder to sell it to the fans.
   134. steagles Posted: March 05, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4074457)

Yep, iso, Rose. That's all the Bulls do.
in fairness, they did use rose as a decoy--twice--on that play.
   135. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 05, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4074486)
...when kobe iso's, it usually guarantees 3 things: 1, he won't turn the ball over. 2, he'll get the shot off. and 3, he'll take enough time off the clock that the opposition won't get a good look to come back.

right now, in any given late game set they run, the sixers are guaranteed to do exactly none of those things, and it's an issue.
...they have 22 wins right now and they could have 28.

If the Sixers don't have anyone they can go to in ISO situations, then it sounds like you're describing a 22-win team, not a 28-win team; in other words a good, but not great, team.
   136. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 05, 2012 at 06:07 PM (#4074504)
in fairness, they did use rose as a decoy--twice--on that play.

And that matters to your point how? The problem for Philly is what El Hombre mentions in 135 not that they haven't practiced enough. Because the linked video is an actual play, run by a team that had less practice time than Philly when it happened. It's about talent* - Rose is both an actual option and a decoy because he's an option.

*Either that or Thibs is just that much better of an offensive coach than Collins, and I don't believe that to be true.
   137. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 05, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4074522)
Anyone read this? Thoughts?

At the 2012 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference on Saturday in Boston, Adam Gold suggested what he considers a better way: winning to win. "We should never have to consider that a loss can be more helpful than a win," said Gold, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Missouri. While fans and hoops bloggers all criticize teams for tanking, Gold also brought proof: in the seven years following the 2004-05 season, teams that missed the playoffs won just 32 percent of their games after they were mathematically eliminated from the postseason compared to 37.5 percent beforehand.

For Gold, this became a logical time to gauge when teams would start to tank -- and the mark when the system should help ensure they don't. His solution:

Give the first pick in the draft to the team that wins the most games after being officially eliminated from playoff contention. Then the team with the second highest number of wins gets the second pick. And so on.

The theory is that the worst team in the league will be the one that is mathematically eliminated first. Thus, it will get the most chances to pile up wins. If it takes advantage of those opportunities, it will be rewarded with the No. 1 pick.


At first glance, I like it.
   138. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 05, 2012 at 06:28 PM (#4074524)
[137] I like it too.
   139. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 05, 2012 at 06:29 PM (#4074529)
Wasn't somebody the other day just asking about shots that are more likely to be offensive rebounds?

According to their research, rebounds collected within two feet of the basket have a 40 percent chance of being an offensive rebound. The percentage chance that the rebound will be offensive drops down to 22 percent between 2 and 10 feet from the basket. Once the ball moves farther outside that range, however, the chance that the rebound will be offensive starts to rise back up, passing the 40 percent plateau again when the ball gets 22 to 26 feet from the basket upon being officially rebounded. As detailed by the researchers, this generally aligns with the expectation that most offensive rebounds are grabbed very close to the hoop (such as tip-ins) or are long rebounds.


Why, yes, I'm not just getting around to reading about the Sloan conference on Truehoop.
   140. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: March 05, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4074542)
[137] It seems like this would just encourage tanking more intensely in the first 2/3 of the season as it becomes important to be eliminated ASAP. Is this really better? Also, this would create a scheduling luck factor since you'd want to play the bad teams early when they're trying to lose and not later when they're trying to win.

In my simulated baseball league draft position is determined by number of years since the team last made the playoffs, with a coinflip tiebreaker. While this isn't totally flawless (sometimes teams in good positions have an incentive to not make the playoffs), it funnels the top picks to moribund franchises instead of tanking ones, and removes any seasonal reward for being as bad as possible. You could add another lottery element, if you wanted -- having the same team get the #1 pick year after year might not be good from an optics/PR perspective, especially in basketball where the top picks are hugely more valuable. But I think it's a great system that's better than the current algorithm used in all pro sports of just looking at record in the previous year (+random for basketball).

I definitely didn't make this up but I forget who I stole it from.
   141. madvillain Posted: March 05, 2012 at 06:43 PM (#4074545)
I'd like to see what percentage of Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook misses at the rim are converted into offensive rebounds. Hubie Brown and JVG are always saying "A missed Rose layup is almost as good as an assist".

I think there might be something to this, but until data confirms it it's just a hunch.
   142. AROM Posted: March 05, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4074563)
To avoid tanking just stop weighting the lottery. Give them all an equal chance like they used to.

As der K mentioned, it's the hand check rule than made life so much easier for speedy point guards. Yes, Isiah would be even better playing today.
   143. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 05, 2012 at 07:09 PM (#4074575)
*I could have said Ricky Davis here, but I never liked Ostertag.


You would have liked him less if he played for the Bulls.
   144. Spivey Posted: March 05, 2012 at 07:11 PM (#4074576)
I'd be curious to see what the lottery would have looked like the last few years if we had the format in 137.
   145. andrewberg Posted: March 05, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4074580)
Matt- I remember the same things being said about AI. That doesn't make it any more true, but it certainly isn't anything new.

I think we should have a better system than the current lottery system, but I'm not that fired up about that SSAC idea. I had the same reaction as AS, although early in the season, players probably have a harder time swallowing their pride. I would probably prefer the random drawing, too, as long as the envelopes aren't frozen.
   146. Jimmy P Posted: March 05, 2012 at 07:24 PM (#4074584)
I think we should have a better system than the current lottery system

The only issue I have with this lottery system are all the stupid rules they have. You can't move down so many, you can't have the #1 two years in a row, etc. I actually don't think the current system is too bad. Even if you have the worst record, you still have 3 times more likely of a chance to not get the top pick. I guess if you totally go in the tank so you fall from 10th worst to 2nd or 3rd is an advantage, but to go from 3rd to 1st is a very small increase.

The bigger issue is just making sure you get the #1 pick in the right year. Getting it when Derrick Rose is there? Great. Getting it when Andreas Bargnani is there? Meh.
   147. tshipman Posted: March 05, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4074597)
Wasn't somebody the other day just asking about shots that are more likely to be offensive rebounds?


Well, my question was more about offensive rebounds resulting from a double team on an ISO shooter like Kobe or Melo. That is interesting stuff, though.
   148. Maxwn Posted: March 05, 2012 at 08:04 PM (#4074605)
Zach Lowe with a nice article about the Grizzlies: Point Forward on Grizz

They are now 22-15 and in 5th. 1 game behind the LA teams for the 3 and 4. Won 10 of 12. Randolph is participating in practice again and is supposedly traveling with the team, so if his return is not quite imminent, it's at least getting a lot closer. Overall, the season post-Z-Bo injury has gone about as well as it possibly could have. The west is pretty wide open, at least after OKC, so they've definitely put themselves in a good position for the stretch run.

That 3-seed sure would be nice, but there are going be several teams fighting for position from about the 2 seed on down, so it won't be easy to move up or even maintain the 5. Still, if Randolph can come back and work his way back into the mix, they will be a dangerous team come playoff time.
   149. steagles Posted: March 05, 2012 at 09:41 PM (#4074691)
ET got the start tonight for the first time this year. so far 0/3 with 4 rebounds.


coincidentally enough, jodie meeks came off the bench and nailed 2 3s in 3 minutes.
   150. steagles Posted: March 05, 2012 at 10:20 PM (#4074722)
21 minutes for turner in the first half. 0/7 from the floor, 2 turnovers, but also 9 rebounds, 2 assists (and a few other nifty passes that didn't lead to assists), and a steal.

meeks netted 11 points in 9 minutes. 3/3 from beyond the arc, 4/4 from the field.


eurogoon also got the start and was 3/3 in a 9 minute run. he got into foul trouble early, but he was pretty solid.



all in all, that was one of the better halves of offense the sixers have had since they started dropping games. young got his. holiday got his. meeks, williams, turner, brand, iguodala, eurogoon all contributed.

it'd be nice if turner hit a shot, though.
   151. madvillain Posted: March 05, 2012 at 10:48 PM (#4074732)
Bulls are up 19 entering the 4th Steagles. Rose had 11 points and 5 assists in the 3rd.
   152. Into the Void Posted: March 05, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4074745)
Bulls are up 19 entering the 4th Steagles. Rose had 11 points and 5 assists in the 3rd.


Don't distract him, he's busy coming up with excuses about how "not to make excuses, but..." the Sixers would have beat the Bucks if x, y, and z would have happened, how playing yesterday negatively affected their performance, Hawes is still out, tired legs, not enough practice time, long bus ride to Milwaukee, etc., etc., etc, meanwhile finding stats like the Bulls haven't beat a team on the road with a winning percentage over .603% in eight days so they must not be very good!...

   153. steagles Posted: March 05, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4074748)
that was not a fun 2nd half.


anyway, the sixers are 5-2 when facing a non-division leading eastern conference playoff team with a day of rest after a loss to a central division playoff contender, so i've got a good feeling about this next game against boston.








   154. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 05, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4074753)
anyway, the sixers are 5-2 when facing a non-division leading eastern conference playoff team with a day of rest after a loss to a central division playoff contender, so i've got a good feeling about this next game against boston.

I literally laughed aloud and I can't tell if this is serious or not. Either way, this post wins the thread.
   155. Tripon Posted: March 05, 2012 at 11:52 PM (#4074755)
I have not seen a Sixers game this season, but due to Steagles I want to see them go to the Finals and then lose in 4.
   156. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 06, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4074770)
Wild ending to regulation in DEN.
   157. smileyy Posted: March 06, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4074790)

I'd like to see what percentage of Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook misses at the rim are converted into offensive rebounds. Hubie Brown and JVG are always saying "A missed Rose layup is almost as good as an assist".

I think there might be something to this, but until data confirms it it's just a hunch.


Is this because a big has usually come over as a help defender on the drive, likely leaving an un-boxed out offensive player?
   158. smileyy Posted: March 06, 2012 at 02:07 AM (#4074791)
I'd like a draft system that returns clusters of high draft picks in consecutive years. A team shouldn't be punished for having LeBron James or Derrick Rose turn their team around.

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on the same team is good for the league.

And yes, I realize the Clippers basically nullify a lot of this argument.
   159. andrewberg Posted: March 06, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4074928)
And yes, I realize the Clippers basically nullify a lot of this argument.


Not really. Part of the reason they were able to trade for Paul was that they had Gordon, another recent lotto pick with lots of potential, and Aminu as trade chips.
   160. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 06, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4074962)
Not much to say about the Bulls beat-down of Indiana last night. The Bulls just blew them out of the water in the 3rd quarter, and the Pacers had no answer. Rose had a good 3rd quarter, but was awful in the first half (1 for 9). The refs pretty much swallowed their whistles, which was surprising giving some of the rhetoric coming into the game, but it didn't spill over into any sort of real chippy-ness. Rip got hurt again though, this time his shoulder and it doesn't sound promising. Watson also sat out, so back to less than a full roster; Mike James shouldn't get too far from his phone.

I'm not sure what projection systems think of Paul George, but it's easy to see why scouts fell in love with him. I don't know how many games he actually puts everything together, but he was clearly the Pacers' best player last night*. He seems like he can do everything well; he's probably playing out of position at the 2, but that's relatively minor. He's got a pretty shot, he's smooth, he's athletic, and he's a good and willing defender.

*I'm shocked to see the box score now, as he had 1 rebound, 0 assists but 2 steals, 1 block and only 1 TO. It sure felt like he did a lot more than just score.
   161. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: March 06, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4074972)
He seems like he can do everything well; he's probably playing out of position at the 2, but that's relatively minor

I've fallen in love with Paul George. A 6'10'' guy capably playing the 2 is just amazing to me.
   162. Jimmy P Posted: March 06, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4074979)
He seems like he can do everything well; he's probably playing out of position at the 2, but that's relatively minor


It was a nice pick. The Pacers drafted 10th, so they had to make the choice between safe pick, or swing for the fences. George has made that pay off.

Looking back on that draft, Cole Aldrich was the next pick. Has he even been heard from again?
   163. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 06, 2012 at 01:38 PM (#4074982)
George might be my favorite non-Bulls player.
   164. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 06, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4074986)
Who doesn't like Paul George? Stat guys like him, scouty folks like him. He's a really nice piece with breakout potential.
   165. Manny Coon Posted: March 06, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4074996)
Aldrich has seen a little bit of playing time for the Thunder this year and he's done pretty well when he's played, he has a 17.8 PER and over 60% TS%, but its a small sample size. The Thunder have a lot of tough veteran big man types, so its been hard to get playing time.
   166. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 06, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4074998)
Der, where did you get that listing of records vs .500 teams last time? I'm curious if OKC is still crushing everyone there.
   167. andrewberg Posted: March 06, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4075021)
It was a nice pick. The Pacers drafted 10th, so they had to make the choice between safe pick, or swing for the fences. George has made that pay off.


I distinctly recall a debate at the time about how the Pacers had gone TOO safe in recent drafts and wanted to make up for it with some higher-ceiling guys, so they took George and Lance Stephenson to balance out psycho T and Brandon Rush. If they can hit on 50% of the risks they take, that's a pretty damn good rate.

Cole Aldrich was the next pick. Has he even been heard from again?


I read something just the other day about how the coaching staff thinks he deserves more minutes and is pushing to be the primary backup 5. That might just be posturing. Then again, some guys take time to get acclimated. We assume that guys who stayed in college are ready for the NBA, but that's not always the case. Roy Hibbert is a good example of someone who grew into the NBA even after a 4-year college career.
   168. smileyy Posted: March 06, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4075034)
It was a nice pick. The Pacers drafted 10th, so they had to make the choice between safe pick, or swing for the fences. George has made that pay off.


Put me in the "swing for the fences" camp with a 10th pick.

When I saw Aldrich on the bench for OKC, he looked more athletic, and less "oafish" than I remember him at Kansas. Or maybe I'm misrembering him at Kansas. Or maybe I'm being fooled by the fact that he didn't shave that day.
   169. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 06, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4075087)
Der, where did you get that listing of records vs .500 teams last time? I'm curious if OKC is still crushing everyone there.
I made it, using this.
   170. Jimmy P Posted: March 06, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4075098)
A map of every shot taken in the NBA from 2006-2011. This is very cool
   171. madvillain Posted: March 06, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4075105)
ESPN has a good expanded standings breakdown.

Only a handful of teams having winning records against .500 teams. Miami, Chicago, OKC, SA, LAC and LAL. OKC is 18-6 against .500 teams,impressive.

Philly will be pressed to finish with 35 wins. They are 6-13 against .500 and better -- and of their remaining 27 games, 16 are on the road.

____________________________

A map of every shot taken in the NBA from 2006-2011. This is very cool


That is cool. I guess the bank shot is dead, as the areas between the baseline and elbow are a dead zone for the current NBA player.

Rondo's chart is hilarious.
   172. smileyy Posted: March 06, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4075117)
Its kind of awesome to see the handed-ness bias in the two sides of the under-the-basket-just-outside-the-backboard shot. That's a great visualization.
   173. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 06, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4075152)
From an article by Zack Lowe about Rondo's trade value:

Overall, only five teams devote fewer of their possessions to isolation than Boston. (The teams, if you’re interested: San Antonio, Orlando, Utah, Chicago and Phoenix.)


Outside of Rose, the Bulls just don't have many other options for iso plays (Boozer occasionally, Deng rarely, Noah when he feels frisky, and that one game for JLIII). The Bulls are also 3rd in the NBA is FG Ast%. So 2 more counters to the 'iso Rose' post yesterday.
   174. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: March 06, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4075191)
When I saw Aldrich on the bench for OKC, he looked more athletic, and less "oafish" than I remember him at Kansas. Or maybe I'm misrembering him at Kansas. Or maybe I'm being fooled by the fact that he didn't shave that day.

Aldrich played through a stress fracture in one of his feet down the stretch of his junior year at Kansas and it really limited his movement.
   175. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 06, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4075297)
This is fantastic - an analytic look at how much Boris Diaw is likely eating to maintain his current weight during the season.
   176. smileyy Posted: March 06, 2012 at 04:53 PM (#4075302)
While that's somewhat tongue-in-cheek, I remember being shocked that Vince Carter would eat McDonald's on game day (IIRC). In the college ranks, one of the reasons for Travis Taylor's disappointing play with Xavier this year has been a struggle in keeping weight on with the team's grueling practices and training.

If I were an NBA team, I'd closely monitor what my players were eating, to the point of offering to cook them every single meal.
   177. Jimmy P Posted: March 06, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4075334)
This is fantastic - an analytic look at how much Boris Diaw is likely eating to maintain his current weight during the season.


My sister-in-law used to work for USA Swimming. She said watching some of the athletes eat was amazing. It was just something else to keep track of because they had to take in ~5000-6000 calories. You really have to try to eat that much and not have it be nothing but pizzas and burgers.
   178. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 06, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4075373)
175 - That's great.
   179. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 06, 2012 at 05:47 PM (#4075383)
[175] Best thing I've read since... I dunno, ever.
   180. Fourth True Outcome Posted: March 06, 2012 at 06:01 PM (#4075397)
175 - That is plain wonderful. I'm always sort of impressed more guys don't gain weight like Diaw did during lockouts/offseasons. If you're used to consuming that amount and then stop working so hard, dialing down the food consumption commensurately must come easier for some than others. (I know a lot of guys work hard during the offseason, but certainly not everyone.) I imagine this is also why a lot of athletes get jowly soon after retiring.
   181. Manny Coon Posted: March 06, 2012 at 07:26 PM (#4075457)
[175] Best thing I've read since... I dunno, ever.


The Diaw article is good, but not as good as the Icelandic Phallological Museum wikipedia link in the Dillinger thread.
   182. andrewberg Posted: March 06, 2012 at 07:36 PM (#4075465)
For some reason, we don't have a monthly The Wire thread here yet, so I'll just point out here that Grantland's The Wire bracket is shameful.
   183. steagles Posted: March 06, 2012 at 09:27 PM (#4075537)
For some reason, we don't have a monthly The Wire thread here yet, so I'll just point out here that Grantland's The Wire bracket is shameful.
if i had to give my own personal final 4, it'd be snoop, bodie, carver, and stringer. i know omar was supposed to be some kind of badass, but some of the stuff he did (read: everything following his testimony in court in season 2) was just ridiculous. and even if you discount that, he just was what he was. he just didn't grow at all throughout the series.


snoop gets points for authenticity, but to me, stringer, carver, and bodie really were the three most dynamic characters in the series. the growth of bodie was particularly notable, and when he got killed in season 4, that was, to me, the most powerful scene in the entire series.



and i don't know about anyone else, but the wire hasn't really aged well with me. it's good television, but i don't really see it as being great television.
   184. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 06, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4075546)
I don't know what Kobe Bryant's thinking with that black mask. I know what he's going for, but that can't be great for his peripheral vision. It certainly hasn't helped with his shooting, 2-10 shooting, 4-6 on FTs. Yuck.
   185. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 06, 2012 at 09:58 PM (#4075557)
(For those who can't watch the game, a picture of said mask. Obviously, he wants to be Batman.)
   186. Squash Posted: March 06, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4075559)
Did anyone else read the Grantland article about Rasheed Wallace? I'll jump in by saying I have no idea which Rasheed Wallace the guy is talking about, but apparently it isn't the Sheed whose career I followed. There was a whole bunch of stuff in there about how he was beloved and cuddly - did I completely miss all of this or is Kang just making stuff up? Link
   187. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: March 06, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4075564)
if i had to give my own personal final 4, it'd be snoop, bodie, carver, and stringer.

And Carver is NOT IN THE BRACKET AT ALL. He gets beaten out by Serge(i?).

So yeah, I too am not a fan of this.
   188. andrewberg Posted: March 06, 2012 at 10:25 PM (#4075568)
He looks like a less busty Halle berry from catwoman. Probably his greatest moment since 81.
   189. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: March 06, 2012 at 10:28 PM (#4075570)
I'm only partway thru season 2 ... so avoid or warn about spoilers please.
season 1 was absolutely fantastic television.
   190. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: March 06, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4075577)
Kobe switched back to the clear mask, and he just hit a 20-footer at the buzzer over the outstretched arm of Tayshaun Prince to take the game to OT. I think he'll stick with the clear one from now on.
   191. rr Posted: March 06, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4075591)
Awful losses for both the Lakers and Orlando. Kobe shot too much, but team's other issues were just as key: 4/22 on 3s (Kobe "lead" the way at 2/9) and Lakers PGs/SFs were 3/15. I wasn't that surprised by the Lakers loss, but ANY team losing by 16 to Charlotte right now is surprising.

Will be interested to see if this leads to movement by Lakers or Orlando (not necessarily a trade between them, but other moves).
   192. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: March 06, 2012 at 11:38 PM (#4075594)
and even if you discount that, he just was what he was. he just didn't grow at all throughout the series.


I agree. Bubbles and Prez are way more interesting to me as characters. Omar is fun, but not deep.
   193. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: March 06, 2012 at 11:52 PM (#4075602)
I agree. Bubbles and Prez are way more interesting to me as characters.

7 seed and 8 seed, respectively.

And yeah, I'm done on the bracket, really.
   194. Alex_Lewis Posted: March 07, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4075631)
The Bunk!!!
   195. Fourth True Outcome Posted: March 07, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4075642)
The brackets seem to be predicated solely on some measure of who's "cool", which is not at all what I cared about on that show. It is ludicrous that Carver didn't make the cut, Cheese is a higher seed than Pryzbo, Bodie is a #3, Freamon a #5, and Kima a #7, etc etc etc. I'm with the consensus that ranking the characters, while perhaps silly, is a fun idea, but those brackets are completely wrongheaded.
   196. madvillain Posted: March 07, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4075643)
I've probably watched every episode of the Wire at least 3 times. I've read Homicide and at least 3 different essays by Simon. I've done a Wire tour of B-more.

Omar as a character is completely over-rated. He's completely static and is actually more of a mythical, almost cartoonish version of himself. Same applies for Templeton, Mcnulty, Rawls, Freeman, Carcetti, Herk, Clay Davis, Avon, Burell, Pearlman and Levy. These characters are still vivid, but they exist to push the narrative and as such are often in extremes.

As far as actual characters, I think you have to put Chris, Snoop, Cutty, Prez, Kima, Daniels, all the dockworkers, Bunk, Freamon, all the kids, Stringer, Marlo, The Greeks, Augustus, Bubbles and some other I"m probablyh forgetting in a big pile.

Personally I think the most compelling characters are Bodie, Chris, Snoop, Cutty, Prez, Marlo and Bubbles and the Sobotkas.

[rant]On a critical note, I find it ironic that most white critics note the persuasive argument against the war on drugs and inner city Blacks, but forget the equally poignant realism of the fading white blue collar class.

Charles Murray recently published a book about how white middle class "values" have declined as their wages have -- and arguing that "values" lead to prosperity.

What Simon shows us is that it's the other way: crime and a decay in "values" follows a decline in economic opportunity for the whites and blacks and eastern euros of 'balmer alike.
   197. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: March 07, 2012 at 01:29 AM (#4075644)
and i don't know about anyone else, but the wire hasn't really aged well with me. it's good television, but i don't really see it as being great television.

This is *by far* the most wrong thing you've said on these threads, and that's saying something.
   198. PreservedFish Posted: March 07, 2012 at 01:46 AM (#4075649)
Omar as a character is completely over-rated. He's completely static and is actually more of a mythical, almost cartoonish version of himself.


That's why Omar is great. Everyone else is in a gritty, realistic crime drama. Omar is Clint Eastwood.

I don't understand what's wrong with the static characters. They can also be realistic, and a show where everyone goes through the type of personal upheaval and reinvention that Bodie, Bubbles and Prez do would be unrealistic and way too intense.
   199. steagles Posted: March 07, 2012 at 01:57 AM (#4075651)
Personally I think the most compelling characters are Bodie, Chris, Snoop, Cutty, Prez, Marlo and Bubbles and the Sobotkas.
i wasn't much of a fan of cutty. i don't think he really did anything notable enough to be mentioned alongside bodie, snoop, and bubbles.


oh, and just to add one more thing, what was up with chris's family? they were only really mentioned in passing, but it seemed like the show could have done more to tease out his background by making them a little more prominent.

This is *by far* the most wrong thing you've said on these threads, and that's saying something.
maybe i need to watch it again, but nothing really blew me away. there were some really cool moments--omar on the witness stand, bodie running into mcnulty at the movies, mcnulty confessing to the reporter that he was the serial killer--and some of the deaths were really gutwrenching--d'angelo, wallace, bodie, prop joe--but there are just a lot of shows that i enjoy more right now. justified is great. archer is probably the first series that's truly resonated with me as an adult. as i've said in the other thread, i'm just absolutely blown away by the finales of doctor who.


i'm not knocking the wire down to the level of dexter--although, just to say a word about that, the way they teased incest during this past season was truly inspired. usually with a show like this, you get to a point where you're numb to the imagery, but adding that wrinkle to the plot last year just completely ramped up the skeeviness of a show that had kind of plateaued. i know the actors are married to each other in real life, but i think that adds to the possibilities of where the show will go next season--i'm just saying that it's not in my personal inner circle anymore.
   200. Fourth True Outcome Posted: March 07, 2012 at 03:57 AM (#4075659)
Given Der_K's request in 189, let's make sure we're throwing out spoiler alerts for things like deaths...
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