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Saturday, March 03, 2012

OT: NBA Monthly Thread, March 2012

I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the inevitable blacklash against Linsanity, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: Ryan Braun Urine, Players Being in the Best Shape of Their Lives, and what Eric Chavez thinks about the Moneyball movie.

Tripon Posted: March 03, 2012 at 08:39 AM | 1861 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1201. hokieneer Posted: March 17, 2012 at 09:17 PM (#4083347)
Well VCU got a 2 for 1 anyway.
   1202. Lassus Posted: March 17, 2012 at 09:33 PM (#4083354)
Coaches screaming at refs for fouls on every play is somehow even less enjoyable than Italian soccer players taking dives.

Iowa State self-destructing.
   1203. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: March 17, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4083357)
i really wish the sixers were as physical as these bulls guards are making them look. every ####### drive in the lane sends a bull to the floor and there's no way in hell that spencer hawes is putting them there.


like watching a ####### soccer game.
   1204. hokieneer Posted: March 17, 2012 at 09:54 PM (#4083362)
Someone needs to get Anthony Davis some eye brow wax before the draft.
   1205. PJ Martinez Posted: March 17, 2012 at 10:04 PM (#4083365)
Kevin Garnett got his 5,000th assist tonight. He also has 20,000 points and 10,000 rebounds; only Karl Malone and Kareem have that many points, rebounds, and assists.

Unlike Kareem, Garnett also has 1,500 steals. Unlike Malone, Garnett also has 1,500 blocks.

(Source.)
   1206. AROM Posted: March 17, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4083366)
A nitpick: Kareem very likely had 1500 steals. They just didn't keep track of them until his 5th season.
   1207. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: March 17, 2012 at 10:20 PM (#4083369)
When did the NBA change the 'get the ball at half court' rule after a TO, I seem to remember the Bos v PHX game (3 to Gar Heard game) where a TO gave a FT to the defensive team, prior to advancing to half court.
   1208. tshipman Posted: March 18, 2012 at 12:22 AM (#4083390)
Kevin Garnett got his 5,000th assist tonight. He also has 20,000 points and 10,000 rebounds; only Karl Malone and Kareem have that many points, rebounds, and assists.


Except Kareem has 38K points, 17K rebounds and 2.9K blocks (setting aside the steals issue). I am not a fan of "clubs" where the new guy has the lowest numbers of any of the other guys.

Kareem is twice the player Garnett ever was.

/10 year old me

(side note: I used to measure how tall I was from this life size poster of Kareem. I don't know if I ever got to his waist before my parents split up and I lost the poster.)
   1209. Perro(s) Posted: March 18, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4083391)
I tried, but I cannot read Klosterman.
   1210. smileyy Posted: March 18, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4083395)
Isn't that how all clubs will always work? I think the idea is to identify "best all-around big men careers". The interesting company would be the guys not on the lists, and where their numbers are.
   1211. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: March 18, 2012 at 01:39 AM (#4083396)
I am not a fan of "clubs" where the new guy has the lowest numbers of any of the other guys.


This seems like an issue with counting as much as with counting stats.
   1212. madvillain Posted: March 18, 2012 at 02:26 AM (#4083402)
I tried, but I cannot read Klosterman.


Dude's been trying to hard for awhile IMO. Even the most brilliant observers usually lose touch, and Klosterman isn't that brilliant. But, as Simmons knows, there is a huge audience for middle-brow essays. Gladwell knows this well too.
   1213. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: March 18, 2012 at 02:34 AM (#4083403)
Well, I'll ask here since I'm curious and think this is the best forum for basketball talk. I think Tyson Chandler is having a brilliant season at the center position. My question is, is he better than Bynum right now? Who would you rather have this season? Everyone I've spoken to says Bynum, it's like I'm taking crazy pills.
   1214. tshipman Posted: March 18, 2012 at 03:01 AM (#4083406)
I think Tyson Chandler is having a brilliant season at the center position. My question is, is he better than Bynum right now? Who would you rather have this season? Everyone I've spoken to says Bynum, it's like I'm taking crazy pills.


In order:
1. No.
2. Bynum.
3. That's because you are.

The knock on Bynum is that he can't stay healthy, not that he can't play when he's healthy. Bynum has played like the second best center in the league--and is closer to #1 than #3. You have to go off into Dave Berri la-la land to think that Chandler is equivalent or better.
   1215. robinred Posted: March 18, 2012 at 03:10 AM (#4083409)
Chandler has awesome efficiency numbers, but his USG is only 12.8 and only 14.0 for his career. Bynum's EFF has dropped off a bit, but his USG has jumped to 22.3 with Odom and Shannon Brown gone and his TS is still pushing 60 (and may get a little higher getting a few cookies from Sessions with the second unit the rest of the way).

Chandler is better defensively due to his mobility, but Bynum is much more of an offensive threat. The Knicks DRTG has jumped from 22 to 8 and I don't think that is due to Lin, Anthony and Stoudemire. Bynum also has a stronger narrative this year; Chandler has sort of gotten lost.

I would take Bynum, but it would depend on what your team needs and it's not a "crazy pills" thing. Chandler does a lot of stuff that casual fans don't really see because his strengths are playing off the ball and playing help defense.

Add: I don't read Berri, but I would guess he has Chandler as one of the best players in the NBA right now since he has a .723 TS.
   1216. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: March 18, 2012 at 03:11 AM (#4083410)
Chandler plays spectacular (and spectacularly versatile) defense and is a smart, athletic roll man. But a roll man is about all he is on offense, and his hands aren't perfect. While Bynum lacks the mobility to play team defense on Chandler's level, he's no slouch: he's long, smart, and strong as hell. Plus he can create his own shot very effectively and uses his size/reach to gobble up putbacks and easy points.

Or: on defense, Chandler > Bynum; on offense, Chandler <<< Bynum.
   1217. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: March 18, 2012 at 03:29 AM (#4083413)
Gallo did something ridiculous tonight.
   1218. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 18, 2012 at 06:17 AM (#4083422)
Moses' link from the other day had something on Chandler's offensive limitations. From the summary:
For example, the current league leader in FG%, Tyson Chandler has one of the lowest Range% values (4.3)in the league. In other words, Chandler is only an effective scorer in 4% of the scoring area, while Kobe Bryant is that effective in 29.8% of the scoring area.
When we talk about Chandler's awesome efficiency numbers, we should keep in mind just how limited his awesomeness really is. The plays that Chandler scores on are basically plays that pretty much every big man in the NBA can score on, dunks and layups at the rim. Chandler's a terrific defender, but Bynum's no slouch, and his block rate is actually higher than Chandlers' is this season.
   1219. AROM Posted: March 18, 2012 at 10:21 AM (#4083452)
Chandler's offensive efficiency is great because he rarely shoots what he can't dunk. His limitations mean defenders can focus more on his teammates and this hurts their efficiency. He's probably a net negative to the offense despite his personal shooting numbers. But he is a great defensive force, the Knicks have been around 10th all year in defensive efficiency despite not having a good coaching situation and a roster that doesn't play D at all.

Bynum is the total package. As long as he can stay healthy he's developed into a great player. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed on that one since the next season he plays 2000 minutes will be his first.
   1220. Conor Posted: March 18, 2012 at 10:34 AM (#4083457)
I was thinking the same thing about Chandler vs Bynum, and since Chandler is now iron man either, Bynum is probably better, but after watching Chandler play every day for the first time, he really is awesome. I still think he is probably a net positive on offense; he doesn't do much other than dunk, but 70% is still 70% (he's shooting 78% at the rim this year, league average for centers is 64%), and he's really great at both getting offensive rebounds, and keeping offensive rebounds alive for other guys to get. Chandler has taken 9 shots the entire year from 16-23 feet, and another 32 from 3-9 feet. The crazy thing is, last year, he apparently was 21-44 from 16-23 feet. This blows my mind, that he could take one shot every other game from that distance and make half of them.

I am not that surprised Bynum has a higher block rate, Chandler doesn't really seem to go for a lot of blocks. He's just really great at contesting shots by simply using his size. I'm extremely impressed with Chandler, but in the end, I'd still have to take Bynum, who plays a much larger role in the offense, and isn't all that far behind Tyson defensively.
   1221. tfbg9 Posted: March 18, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4083470)
Chandler's wrist is pretty sore right now as well, and it is hindering his ability to catch a bounce pass on a pick and roll and secure a contested board. He's the best player on the Knicks, if you define "best" as most indispensible.

Knicks are a fun watch right now. JR Smith's new nickname:

Vintage Pedro Face.
   1222. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: March 18, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4083491)
JR Smith's new nickname:

Vintage Pedro Face.


ha! That's a great call. I think he's that mixed with a little of Kobe.

Thanks to everyone for chiming in about Chandler-Bynum.
   1223. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 18, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4083501)
Where in the world is Derek Fisher?
   1224. AROM Posted: March 18, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4083530)
Right now the Knicks are 8th in defensive efficiency, and 19th in offense. Last year they were 7th in offense, 22nd in defense. Not sure how that breaks down in pre-Carmelo and post-Carmelo. I'm comfortable giving Chandler all the credit on the defensive end. He doesn't deserve all the blame on offense, but probably some of it. The offense works better when every player is a threat to make something happen.
   1225. AROM Posted: March 18, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4083532)
Did you know the NBA hasn't gotten any taller in 30 years? And peaked for height in the late 1980's?

Check it out.
   1226. madvillain Posted: March 18, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4083561)
Interesting AROM.

Derrick Rose is starting to get into D. Wade injury territory, and I'm not liking it. Maybe it's just the condensed season, maybe it's just bad luck. But only 23 and already a malaise of back, knee, groin and ankle problems. Sounds pretty much like Wade -- alot of "minor" injuries that add up.

Not a guy that's going to miss the whole season, but one that could, in any given year, miss 30 or so games. Rose is almost certainly out for MOnday. I bet he doesn't play until next Saturday, at the earliest.

I'm not even sure how he hurt his groin. One report said it was outside of basketball, the other I read said it was when Jeremy Lin blocked his shot. Of course after that block Rose went on to play well the rest of the game and throw down his nastiest dunk of the season, so wtf.

Luol Deng is trying to play through is wrist injury, and not playing well while still missing every other game. I really wish he would have just had the surgery 2 months ago. He would have been in line for a late april return, then he could get his legs under him for two weeks before Miami.

   1227. Tripon Posted: March 18, 2012 at 02:52 PM (#4083577)
Derek Fisher will sign with the Clippers so he can be the ultimate double agent.
   1228. robinred Posted: March 18, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4083579)
The offense works better when every player is a threat to make something happen.


Where in the world is Derek Fisher?

Indeed. Fisher may be forced into retirement. I have read that Jordan Hill won't be allowed to play until Fisher's status is resolved, although I am not sure that is true.
   1229. Chicago Joe Posted: March 18, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4083582)
Did you know the NBA hasn't gotten any taller in 30 years? And peaked for height in the late 1980's?


Doesn't seem too surprising. It seems the emphasis has moved from size to athleticism throughout the game. Just think of the positional definitions-used to be G,G,F,F,C. Now it's by numbers.
   1230. robinred Posted: March 18, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4083588)
Dallas, DRTG/ORTG, 2011 and 2012

2011 8th/8th
2012 4th/21st

Dallas gave up 105 points per 100 possessions last year; this year they are at 100. Obviously there are many things going on there. Wright and Haywood both have very good DRTGs, and they the guys who more or less got Chandler's minutes in Dallas (36 a game between them).
   1231. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: March 18, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4083641)
I don't consider drtg all that reliable, myself. (for individuals)
Wright, for instance, has a spotty reputation.

Also - and I've never thought about this before - how wary should I be of WS in the playoffs? Opp quality differs significantly.
   1232. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: March 18, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4083688)
Did you know the NBA hasn't gotten any taller in 30 years? And peaked for height in the late 1980's?

Check it out.

Modern players lie less egregiously about their height than players from the 80's.
   1233. AROM Posted: March 18, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4083708)
Except for 6'0 JJ Barea.
   1234. robinred Posted: March 18, 2012 at 05:36 PM (#4083710)
Wright, for instance, has a spotty reputation.


Perhaps, but Dallas' team DRTG is better, and Haywood and Wright have taken Chandler's minutes.

Either that or it is entirely the Mahinmi factor.
   1235. robinred Posted: March 18, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4083732)
yahoo reporting that Fisher and Rockets have reached a buyout agreement. Reminder if people forgot--the league passed an "Ilgauskas Rule" so Fisher cannot return to the Lakers this year.
   1236. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: March 18, 2012 at 06:13 PM (#4083734)
I wasn't trying to detract from your team point - just noting...
   1237. tshipman Posted: March 18, 2012 at 06:39 PM (#4083750)
Modern players lie less egregiously about their height than players from the 80's.


I think this is real. The NBA has been moving away from post play for the last 20 years. In addition, there are more small guards (due to handcheckign rules) than ever before. 6-3 to 6-5 PGs used to be relatively common, they are now nearly extinct.
   1238. PJ Martinez Posted: March 18, 2012 at 06:54 PM (#4083768)
Modern players lie less egregiously about their height than players from the 80's.

Seems plausible, but is there evidence?

Just going from memory, doesn't really seem like the league has gotten any taller since I became a fan in the '80s.
   1239. PJ Martinez Posted: March 18, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4083773)
Derrick Rose is starting to get into D. Wade injury territory, and I'm not liking it. Maybe it's just the condensed season, maybe it's just bad luck. But only 23 and already a malaise of back, knee, groin and ankle problems. Sounds pretty much like Wade -- alot of "minor" injuries that add up.

Which makes sense, because both of them throw themselves around the court on both ends with reckless abandon. Maybe someone from the Bulls should point to the Wade example, and convince Rose to rein it in a little? Probably hard for someone that competitive to hold back, and maybe it would hurt his game a tad, but it's in both his interest and theirs, obviously, for him to do whatever he can to stay healthy.
   1240. nick swisher hygiene Posted: March 18, 2012 at 07:04 PM (#4083779)
Kendall Marshall the only guy I've seen this tournament who has NBA point guard court vision...
   1241. Spivey Posted: March 18, 2012 at 07:38 PM (#4083796)
Kendall Marshall the only guy I've seen this tournament who has NBA point guard court vision...


Yeah, but he shoots like he can't even play in Europe.
   1242. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 18, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4083819)
Just going from memory, doesn't really seem like the league has gotten any taller since I became a fan in the '80s.
Check out this survey, which charts the league average size and weight from 1985-86 to 2007-2008. The average player went from 6'7.36" and 214.4 lbs in 1985 to 6' 6.98" and 221 lbs.
   1243. outl13r Posted: March 18, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4083822)
Derrick Rose is starting to get into D. Wade injury territory, and I'm not liking it. Maybe it's just the condensed season, maybe it's just bad luck. But only 23 and already a malaise of back, knee, groin and ankle problems. Sounds pretty much like Wade -- alot of "minor" injuries that add up.


Or, maybe it's the fact that his main source of calories is from candy, thus his body doesn't heal as quickly or properly as it should.
   1244. outl13r Posted: March 18, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4083827)
1242 - I assumed the increase in weight (big jump in 92-93 and peaking in 03-04) in was directly linked to Oliver Miller, who entered the league in 92-93 - but, alas, he was out of the league from 00-01 to 02-03.
   1245. AROM Posted: March 18, 2012 at 08:22 PM (#4083829)
Also - and I've never thought about this before - how wary should I be of WS in the playoffs? Opp quality differs significantly.


I've never looked at that before. In any case, the quality of opposition will be greater. But some teams (let's day you were consistently on the #8 seed playing against the early 80's 76ers, mid 80's Celtics, late 80's Pistons, and early 90's Bulls) then you would have ridiculously tough competition.

Any player who overperforms their regular season numbers in the playoffs deserves credit. Some players who underperform in the playoffs though might have a valid excuse if they are always playing 60 win teams.
   1246. AROM Posted: March 18, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4083830)
I assumed the increase in weight (big jump in 92-93 and peaking in 03-04) in was directly linked to Oliver Miller


That's when Shaq entered the league too.
   1247. outl13r Posted: March 18, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4083847)
I know. And I know Shaq was heavier. But man was Oliver Miller fat... Related.

Anyway, Wilson Chandler (re-)signed with Denver today - 5/$37. Guess that explains some of the Nene deal.
   1248. hokieneer Posted: March 18, 2012 at 09:07 PM (#4083866)
Kendall Marshall the only guy I've seen this tournament who has NBA point guard court vision...

Marshall probably has elite NBA court vision, combined with a great ability to distribute. Besides having a terrible jumper, he can't play defense and is not very athletic.

I'm not sure what to make of Marshall's pro potential.
   1249. Spivey Posted: March 18, 2012 at 09:17 PM (#4083881)
Kendall Marshall has absolutely no business in the NBA. None whatsoever.
   1250. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: March 18, 2012 at 10:43 PM (#4083935)
1245 - sure. i don't mean to dismiss looking at playoff #s, i just hadn't given enough thought about how to do it. gonna cognate on it a bit.

marshall will play in the league - not sure how well yet. you could make comparisons to rubio, though ricky is decidedly better (despite having a worse shot).

growing up, i used to play against this dude who we called, among other things, short oliver miller - he was 5-9 370 and - like miller - could get steals, blocks, assists and boards. (also, like miller, you could take advantageof his defense - especially since 6-9 ain't that short, but 5-9 is for any level of ball). i loved playing that dude 'til the day he fell on my ankle ... never been able to cut quite as well since.
   1251. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 18, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4083946)
So I missed the first half of Jazz/Lakers...is Favors playing poor defense on Bynum, Bynum just overpowering, or some of both? On plus side looks like a pretty good offensive game so far for him.
   1252. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:29 AM (#4083993)
Oh, Kobe. Kobe, Kobe, Kobe.
   1253. robinred Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:49 AM (#4084000)
Brian Kamenetzky:

To his credit, it wasn't a matter of kobe forcing tons of bad shots, or allowing his frustration to get the best of him (though there was plenty of frustration, both at his production and the referees). He just missed. Over and over, he missed. He drove the lane and missed, missed on turnaround jumpers at the elbow, missed on catch and shoots, missed from 3. He just missed. Add in the turnovers, and he proved a major drag on L.A.'s offense.

In all, Bryant came up dry on 17 of his 20 attempts.

So while the shots weren't bad, they were still empty, and on a night where Bynum was fairly unstoppable down on the block it's reasonable to ask if a few of his opportunities could have been given to Drew. (That is not meant rhetorically. I'm saying they should have.) I realize he's Kobe Bryant, but on a night where one guy scores nearly every time he touches the ball (and the other seven footer scores nearly every time), those guys needed to have more opportunities.

That all starts with Kobe, who seemed to sense that late in the fourth, but it was a little too late. Overall, it was one of the worst games I've seen from him in my time covering the team.


Millsap is the best player in the league of a type (short, physical 4s)that often eats the Lakers up (Davis, Landry) so I expected him to do a lot of damage. He usually does (Gasol and Bynum are slow). Favors and Kanter took it to the Lakers on O as well, and Blake should not be getting 27 minutes for any reason now that Sessions is on the team. Blake "knowing the sets" does not outweigh the talent gap.

But this game is mostly on Kobe. 3/20 with 7 TOs--and Alec Burks scored a lot.
   1254. JuanGone..except1game Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:58 AM (#4084002)
Oh, Kobe. Kobe, Kobe, Kobe.


I guess this is the first evidence that we may miss Fish. SLOWLY BACK AWAY FROM THE BASKETBALL, KOBE!
   1255. robinred Posted: March 19, 2012 at 01:44 AM (#4084020)
Kobe had the 6/28 and 9/31 games with Fisher still on the roster. One thing we know about Kobe: he is going to shoot the ball, no matter who else is out there with him. He just missed a lot, and Utah's young guys + Millsap played well offensively.

Asked what the reason for the loss was after the game, Bryant said, "I shot like shitt."

   1256. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: March 19, 2012 at 02:39 AM (#4084034)
This was a very satisfying win for Jazz fans. Fan favorite Millsap played great, Favors played well again, Kanter (his footwork in the low post has been impressive) and Burks had their best games yet, and Kobe was horrendous. I'm guessing Kobe was just gassed? He got some good looks but was still off, and Burks was able to blow by him in the 4th.
   1257. robinred Posted: March 19, 2012 at 02:53 AM (#4084038)
   1258. tshipman Posted: March 19, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4084140)
Saw this for a paper today. The conclusion is very interesting and completely contrary to what I had thought. Anyone able to read the whole study?

Here's the link.

Players with positive draft bumps due to unexpectedly good performance in the March Madness tournament are in fact more likely than those without bumps from March Madness participation to become one of the rare NBA superstars in the league.
   1259. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: March 19, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4084155)
Kendall Marshall has absolutely no business in the NBA. None whatsoever.


That's what they said about Ed Cota.
   1260. JJ1986 Posted: March 19, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4084160)
It seems wrong to me, but I wonder who they're considering. Maybe it's a small enough population that Melo and Wade are messing with the numbers. Usually I'd think more of the Chalmers/Hayward type of guy.
   1261. outl13r Posted: March 19, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4084174)
Without taking the time to read the study right now, why would someone like Melo be included in that study? Granted, Wasn't he considered the #2 prospect in that draft before the season? It's not as if his Tourney performance was the reason his draft stock rose.
   1262. Jimmy P Posted: March 19, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4084175)
Kendall Marshall has absolutely no business in the NBA. None whatsoever.


Yeah, but he'll get a shot. He's playing in a lineup with at least 3 legit NBA players, so he looks really good. I wasn't sold on him last year, and I'm still not.

It seems like he's going to miss the rest of the tourney, or at least not be near 100%.
   1263. Jimmy P Posted: March 19, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4084184)
I don't know why I even watch the tourney anymore. Third year in a row where I've been kicked in the balls by it.
   1264. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: March 19, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4084185)
It seems wrong to me, but I wonder who they're considering. Maybe it's a small enough population that Melo and Wade are messing with the numbers. Usually I'd think more of the Chalmers/Hayward type of guy.

Without taking the time to read the study right now, why would someone like Melo be included in that study? Granted, Wasn't he considered the #2 prospect in that draft before the season? It's not as if his Tourney performance was the reason his draft stock rose.



i don't think they're saying that mediocre players are likely to be good, or that a great player becomes great because of it. i think what they're saying is that a great player who plays great in the tournament is more likely to be great in the NBA than a great player who gets kicked in the first round.
   1265. andrewberg Posted: March 19, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4084222)
Anyway, Wilson Chandler (re-)signed with Denver today - 5/$37. Guess that explains some of the Nene deal.


That's on the high end of what I think he might be worth. I guess you could say that Denver does not need wings as much as some teams with guys like Afflalo, Rudy, Gallo, and Brewer taking up minutes at the 2 and 3. Still, I think he's a quality player and a good fit for a balanced team like Denver. Even if their ceiling is losing in a conference final over the next 3-5 years, you could do a lot worse from where they seemed to be headed when Melo was asking out.

I don't know why I even watch the tourney anymore. Third year in a row where I've been kicked in the balls by it.


Yeah, I'm stuck once again trying to talk friends off the JT3 ledge. How quickly they forget the Craig Esherick era and how bad a coach can be.
   1266. Jimmy P Posted: March 19, 2012 at 11:41 AM (#4084227)
That's on the high end of what I think he might be worth. I guess you could say that Denver does not need wings as much as some teams with guys like Afflalo, Rudy, Gallo, and Brewer taking up minutes at the 2 and 3

It's more than I'd pay him. But, they must like him a lot. Have they locked up Gallo yet?

Looking at their team, they're going to have to pay Gallo, Mozgev, and McGee in the next year or two. And that Al Harrington contract needs to be amnestied, it's a killer. Still, this is their team, they've locked themselves into the balanced team model (unless they swing a huge trade).
   1267. Jimmy P Posted: March 19, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4084230)
Well VCU got a 2 for 1 anyway.


Can I just say I hate VCU? A lot.
   1268. tshipman Posted: March 19, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4084241)
That's on the high end of what I think he might be worth. I guess you could say that Denver does not need wings as much as some teams with guys like Afflalo, Rudy, Gallo, and Brewer taking up minutes at the 2 and 3. Still, I think he's a quality player and a good fit for a balanced team like Denver. Even if their ceiling is losing in a conference final over the next 3-5 years, you could do a lot worse from where they seemed to be headed when Melo was asking out.


IMO it's a huge overpay. Wilson Chandler has never even had a 15 PER in a season. He doesn't spread the floor well (career .324 3p shooter). He is nothing special as a defender. He's a perfectly decent to good 6th or 7th man. He's not realistically going to get any better than that.

Why lock up guys like that for 5 years? Moves to lock up bench guys are, in my opinion, the worst kind of mistakes a FO can make. Having a great bench is a great competitive advantage. However it is not anywhere near necessary to win championships and prevents you from having the flexibility to make good offers in the rare instances that superstars become available. I would not give Wilson Chandler (or Luke Walton or Tony Allen or Dorell Wright or Aaron Afflalo or any of those guys) a deal longer than 2 years. That is the window that I feel like the NBA is relatively predictable in.
   1269. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: March 19, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4084250)
marshall was considered an elite playmaker coming out of hs as well - it's not like unc has generated huge assist totals out of other guys in his role.

w.chandler - i've underrated him over time, but that's too much.
   1270. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4084256)
That's what they said about Ed Cota.


And simultaneously about Mateen Cleaves.
   1271. andrewberg Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4084258)
And simultaneously about Mateen Cleaves.


And Khalid El-Amin.
   1272. andrewberg Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4084269)
IMO it's a huge overpay. Wilson Chandler has never even had a 15 PER in a season. He doesn't spread the floor well (career .324 3p shooter). He is nothing special as a defender. He's a perfectly decent to good 6th or 7th man. He's not realistically going to get any better than that.


Yeah, I see what you're saying, and I don't think it's unreasonable but I also think he is more than just a useful bench part. Even with the stats you're quoting, there is a more optimistic way to look at them. He has been a 35% 3-point shooter for two years, which at least makes him viable. His 2009 PER was 14.7 and 2010 was 15.7 til he got traded and had shooting/turnover problems while learning a new offense. He is also likely to be a bit underrated by PER as a wing who creates his own shot but doesn't use a huge number of possessions. His .094 WS/48 before last year's trade was quite good. I also think he is a good fit for what Karl likes to do- he wants to have long, athletic wings who can play multiple positions. The Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-McGee lineup will probably be the most athletic one he's had since the Payton/Kemp/Hawkins years in Seattle.

edited WS typo
   1273. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4084273)
[1272] Wilson Chandler cannot create his own shot. At least, not with any effectiveness. He's a guy that, IMO, has been overrated since his NY days because he looks the part. I think it was an overpay on DEN part.
   1274. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:15 PM (#4084276)
andrewberg - i think there's a lot of truth to your post, but .094 WS/48 is still below average.
   1275. tshipman Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4084282)
He has been a 35% 3-point shooter for two years, which at least makes him viable.


Just one year, actually.


It's the years that bother me, not the $$. It's not like guys like Chandler are that hard to replace.
   1276. bunyon Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:20 PM (#4084283)
I assumed the increase in weight (big jump in 92-93 and peaking in 03-04) in was directly linked to


steroids.
   1277. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:20 PM (#4084285)
It seems wrong to me, but I wonder who they're considering. Maybe it's a small enough population that Melo and Wade are messing with the numbers. Usually I'd think more of the Chalmers/Hayward type of guy.


Deron Williams is another. On the other hand, Tyrus Thomas.
   1278. Jimmy P Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4084286)
Deron Williams is another. On the other hand, Tyrus Thomas.


Kevin Durant. Didn't they get eliminated first weekend?
   1279. Jimmy P Posted: March 19, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4084295)
yahoo reporting that Fisher and Rockets have reached a buyout agreement. Reminder if people forgot--the league passed an "Ilgauskas Rule" so Fisher cannot return to the Lakers this year.

Reportedly, he's interested in joining the Bulls or the Heat. Really? Wow. I guess the question is, besides Joel Pryzbilla and Dwight Howard, who isn't interested in joining the Bulls and the Heat?
   1280. nick swisher hygiene Posted: March 19, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4084339)
All Denver needs to do now is trade a bunch of above-average players for the guy who can be #1 on a championship team, or wait for Gallo to become a superstar....
   1281. andrewberg Posted: March 19, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4084346)
It kind of dovetails with what I was saying earlier- I don't think that Karl or the Nuggets want a guy who is a #1 on a championship team. He is an older coach who seems to want to run his system over anything else, and that system really only allows for a superstar offensive player who is a distributing PG.
   1282. nick swisher hygiene Posted: March 19, 2012 at 01:16 PM (#4084355)
1281--yup, agree 100%. and I'm not sure Lawson is even the right guy....
   1283. Jimmy P Posted: March 19, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4084362)
It kind of dovetails with what I was saying earlier- I don't think that Karl or the Nuggets want a guy who is a #1 on a championship team

And maybe they'll shock the world. I just have my doubts. I don't think I'm alone, either.
   1284. AROM Posted: March 19, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4084403)
He is an older coach who seems to want to run his system over anything else, and that system really only allows for a superstar offensive player who is a distributing PG.


Any chance Chris Paul is interested at season's end? Maybe Deron Williams?

I'm trying to figure out whether Faried is a superstar in the making or just a really good player. I didn't see the Celtics-Nuggets game, just followed the play by play on the internet. The 4th quarter basically came down to two types of plays for Denver: Kenneth Faried doing something to preserve the lead (Faried offensive rebound. Faried hits first of two free throws...), and Al Harrington doing something to try and blow the lead (Harrington misses 23 foot jumper. Harrington turns the ball over).
   1285. Jimmy P Posted: March 19, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4084408)
Any chance Chris Paul is interested at season's end?

Not a free agent.

Maybe Deron Williams?

Won't have the cap space. Dallas, Jersey, and Portland are all going to go after him hard.
   1286. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 19, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4084478)
I watched ESPN's Magic Johnson documentary last night, and just finished listening to Simmons' interview with Johnson this morning. Really good stuff. I readily admit that part of my bias towards Magic as Greatest Ever stems from the fact (and I will accept no argument on this) that Magic Johnson is simply an exceptional human being.
   1287. tshipman Posted: March 19, 2012 at 03:00 PM (#4084479)
Question: how is Deron Williams viewed?

I assume most people's "best in the NBA" list looks something like this:

1. LeBron
2. Howard
Tie: Rose, Durant, CP3, (Kobe)--Kobe is in parens due to uncertainty on other's views.
Huge gap
Westbrook, Rondo, Bosh, Gasol, Randolph etc.

Everyone at the top tier is "best player on championship team" contender, with guys in the bottom tier viewed more as complementary stars. Is D-Will in the top tier with Rose and Chris Paul? Is he more like Westbrook and Rondo?
   1288. AROM Posted: March 19, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4084485)
Dwyane Wade has to at least fit into that 3rd place tie. Maybe a 2nd place tie with Howard. Tim Duncan is still better than the players listed after the gap.

Somewhere in this thread I said Deron Williams is a top 10 point guard, but not a top 5.
   1289. Jimmy P Posted: March 19, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4084516)
Will in the top tier with Rose and Chris Paul? Is he more like Westbrook and Rondo?

I would think he's more with Westbrook and Rondo. If he were in Paul and Rose's group, his team wouldn't be one of the worst in the NBA. It may not be more than bottom playoff team, but they wouldn't be one of the 5 worst.

   1290. andrewberg Posted: March 19, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4084517)
Dwyane Wade has to at least fit into that 3rd place tie.


I think he fits right into that group. Maybe close to Dwight at his best, but way more durability concerns.

Somewhere in this thread I said Deron Williams is a top 10 point guard, but not a top 5.


Ok, he's not as good as Paul, Rose, or Westbrook. I might take Rondo for the system he's in, but not for most other systems. You could make an argument for Nash, but DWill is better defensively, will be playing in three years, and might fit better into a lot of systems that don't feature a lot of great shooters near him. I think he's a better playmaker and shooter than Lowry to make up for whatever defensive deficiencies. I think he's quite a bit better than Tony Parker (who has become overrated). Does anyone want to defend Ellis, Jennings, Lin, Evans (are we bothering to call him a PG now?), or Curry against him?

Tim Duncan is still better than the players listed after the gap


Tim Duncan is unbelievable. His shooting numbers are down slightly this year, probably because he had to bump his usage with Ginobili out for so much time. His rebounding, assist, and turnover rates are all right on with his career averages. He doesn't play the minutes he used to, and you can see that he isn't quite as quick defensively as he was. Even so, he is a remarkable defensive player and makes so many incredibly smart plays, and all as a nearly 36 year old big man. Is there anyone else whose career is as underrated as his? I don't think Bob Pettit or Elgin Baylor qualify because their underratedness is a function of playing a big chunk of their careers while the NBA was still growing into a national sport. Hakeem was pretty underrated too, but I'd say it's between Duncan and Moses. Perhaps it was because none of those three was ever clearly regarded as the best player in the world. Duncan was overshadowed by Shaq then Lebron (and even Kobe somewhat). Hakeem was overshadowed by Jordan, even as he won two titles while Jordan left. Moses was overshadowed by Kareem.
   1291. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: March 19, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4084527)
I parse the 3rd place tie a little differently: I have Wade in Kobe's place. Kobe is a moving target. My ranking of Rondo also totally depends on context: I think he has the ability to play at the level of those 3rd place guys (or almost, anyway. His foul and jump shooting woes are real.), but that he can't sustain it for close to the length of the regular season. Durability matters, but as long as there's more rest in the playoffs, I'm happy to give him some benefit of the doubt.
   1292. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: March 19, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4084531)
Is there anyone else whose career is as underrated as his?


The Greatest Power Forward Of All Time is underrated? Understated, sure.
   1293. Eddo Posted: March 19, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4084546)
Deron Williams is another. On the other hand, Tyrus Thomas.

Also, I doubt Derrick Rose goes first overall without his NCAA Tournament performance.

Horford, Conley, and Green all arguably had their stock bumped (went 3-4-5 in 2007) by their performances in March. Not sure how they'd affect the study (haven't read it yet).
   1294. AROM Posted: March 19, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4084551)
My PGs ahead of Williams are:

1. Rose
2. Paul
3. Westbrook
4. Nash
5. Parker

Nash may not play D, but the guy is an incredible shooter. And he doesn't so much benefit from playing with great shooters, he makes his teammates better shooters. He's as good as it gets when it comes to running an offense.

He can call himself a power forward all he wants, but to me Duncan (and I'm sure to many) is a center. A great power forward can score, rebound, maybe play great defense on his man. A great center can do all that and play man on team defense. In this regard the people to compare Duncan to are Olajuwon, his old teammate the Admiral, young Kareem, late career Wilt, and Bill Russell.

Duncan is on a short list for consideration as the greatest center of all time, along with the guys mentioned up above, and Shaq. I have not worked out in my head who ranks where.
   1295. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 19, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4084589)
Question: how is Deron Williams viewed?
My PGs ahead of Williams are:

1. Rose
2. Paul
3. Westbrook
4. Nash
5. Parker
The Nets roster buries Williams' excellence; I would put him even with Parker this season, and I'd put both of them right up next to Nash. I actually DO think Williams could be the best player on a championship contender. He's not so great that he can just carry a team on his own for long stretches, like an inner-circle HoFer might, but he was the best player on a series of Jazz teams that, judging by their roster, had no business winning 50+ games every season and had the misfortune of operating in the Western Conference at the same time as Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant.

   1296. AROM Posted: March 19, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4084590)
On second thought, I'm not sure about Williams vs. Parker. I've got to imagine then in each other's team situation to properly compare.
   1297. andrewberg Posted: March 19, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4084592)
I actually DO think Williams could be the best player on a championship contender. He's not so great that he can just carry a team on his own for long stretches, like an inner-circle HoFer might


I think you're phrasing this the right way. It always seems askew to me when people say "could he be the best player on a championship team," rather than "how difficult would it be to build a championship team with this guy on it/as the best player."
   1298. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 19, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4084598)
Duncan is on a short list for consideration as the greatest center of all time, along with the guys mentioned up above, and Shaq. I have not worked out in my head who ranks where.
All-Time 10 Greatest Centers, no particular order:

Chamberlain
Russell
Abdul-Jabbar
Malone
Shaq
Robinson
Olajuwon
Mikan
Ewing
Duncan

I can see Duncan somewhere in the middle of that crowd easy. Among all-time big men, B-R has him at 5th all time in career WS, behind Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, and Robinson.
   1299. AROM Posted: March 19, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4084622)
Good list.

I can narrow the GOAT to 6 names from there. Mikan deserves mention as a pioneer but there is no way in hell he could have survived head to head matchups with the others on the list. Malone was not the defensive force the others were. There is nothing Ewing could do that Olajuwon could not do better. And while Robinson was a great regular season player, he was no match for Shaq or Hakeem when playoffs came around.
   1300. outl13r Posted: March 19, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4084625)
but he was the best player on a series of Jazz teams that, judging by their roster, had no business winning 50+ games every season and had the misfortune of operating in the Western Conference at the same time as Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant.


As the self appointed President of the Andrei Kirilenko fan club, I strongly disagree with this statement.
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