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Saturday, March 03, 2012

OT: NBA Monthly Thread, March 2012

I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the inevitable blacklash against Linsanity, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: Ryan Braun Urine, Players Being in the Best Shape of Their Lives, and what Eric Chavez thinks about the Moneyball movie.

Tripon Posted: March 03, 2012 at 08:39 AM | 1861 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   701. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4079944)
Sure. However, who here would be surprised if Orlando made a dumb in the abstract deal to make Howard happy, then lost him this offseason anyway?

You mean like trading for Antawn Jamison?
   702. Der_K Posted: March 13, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4079952)
you know something?
   703. Moses Taylor peacocks peacock Posted: March 13, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4079957)
Hinrich's defense is normally pretty good - not sure about this year. Anyway, yes please - I like that deal for Atlanta. At his salary, Meeks is an asset for them - he's the only guy who'll be on their current contract next year.

I was gonna say the same thing about Kurt. His offense has always been underwhelming, not his defense. After the injury though, I don't know; he didn't have a ton of athleticism to lose, he's a great defender because he's stronger than he looks, effort, and smarts. I highly doubt Meeks is at his level defensively. But defense isn't the Sixers problem, they need to be looking for offense, IMHO.

Sure. However, who here would be surprised if Orlando made a dumb in the abstract deal to make Howard happy, then lost him this offseason anyway?
So - is Howard the #2 player in the league? I think so. Who else is on the short list - Durant, maybe Paul...


Wade.
   704. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4079967)
you know something?

It was a Cleveland joke, in case you missed it.
   705. NJ in NY Posted: March 13, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4079979)
So - is Howard the #2 player in the league? I think so. Who else is on the short list - Durant, maybe Paul...

Off the top of my head I think Howard is clearly #2 and then Wade, Paul is a tossup at 3. Then it's the Durant, Rose, Kobe, Westbrook, Love pick em.
   706. Maxwn Posted: March 13, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4079985)
Maxwn and I were talking Pau and perceptions the other day. Before each Lakers game, The KBros do the customary Q and A with the True Hoop blogger from the opposing squad. Here is what the Grizzlies' blogger had to say about Pau when asked what the Grizz need to do to win tonight against the Lakers:

3) Mo Speights needs to punch Pau in the mouth....figuratively speaking, of course. Everyone knows that he is averse to physical play and that you can get in his head that way.

Yeah, I can't say that I care much for the Grizz blog on the True Hoop network or really any others that I'm aware of. One of the writers for the Memphis Flyer, a local alternative-type paper, Chris Herrington, does really good work on the Grizz, but other than that there is limited writing/analysis on the Grizzlies that is worth reading.

That statement pretty much matches a lot of local sentiment about Pau. It's always irritated me. Just a combination of Pau's personality, Euro background, and "finesse" type game, plus the fact that they got swept out of the first round 3 straight times made a lot of people pretty irrational about Pau. You've also got the whole blame the best player for the team's failures dynamic going on as well.

I also think Marc's emergence has probably worsened Pau's perceptions around here, because he plays like what a lot of Memphians think they wanted Pau to be.
   707. AROM Posted: March 13, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4079990)
Everyone knows that he is averse to physical play and that you can get in his head that way.


I remember a fairly big game where noted psych warfare expert Kevin Garnett got in Pau's head, played him physically, and outrebounded him 3 to 18.
   708. Jimmy P Posted: March 13, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4079994)
If you're interested in March Madness news, Fab Melo was ruled ineligible today. He's out. SJ will be bemoaning Syracuse's fate somewhere.

Would Syracuse have gotten a 1 had this been known last weekend?
   709. andrewberg Posted: March 13, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4080003)
Would Syracuse have gotten a 1 had this been known last weekend?


They played pretty well without him. Plus, the committee knows the lengths to which Boeheim will go to get his players in games regardless of what laws/rules they broke.
   710. smileyy Posted: March 13, 2012 at 03:12 PM (#4080026)
[709] I look forward to the improbable St. Bonaventure / Syracuse matchup. Maybe the two teams can go welding afterwards.
   711. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 13, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4080028)
I'd have given Kansas or Ohio State a 1 over a Melo-less Syracuse.
   712. Der_K Posted: March 13, 2012 at 03:14 PM (#4080030)
704 - i figured, but jamisno's name is on the block so youneverknow...
i like herrington.
i meant to add wade, sorry. i'm w/ your list, nj.
   713. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4080042)
Hinrich's defense is normally pretty good - not sure about this year. Anyway, yes please - I like that deal for Atlanta. At his salary, Meeks is an asset for them - he's the only guy who'll be on their current contract next year.

I was gonna say the same thing about Kurt. His offense has always been underwhelming, not his defense. After the injury though, I don't know; he didn't have a ton of athleticism to lose, he's a great defender because he's stronger than he looks, effort, and smarts. I highly doubt Meeks is at his level defensively. But defense isn't the Sixers problem, they need to be looking for offense, IMHO.
i think meeks is underrated defensively, even among sixers fans. he's not that short, not that weak, and he's pretty quick. if he's lacking anything defensively, it's really only experience. he has the tools to be good, and he's already more than acceptible.

the sixers problem with him right now is that he's 6'3 with a 6'4 wingspan, and the sixers need a guy off the bench who is capable of at least nominally being able to guard small forwards. with both turner and iguodala in the starting lineup, and with jrue holiday playing a lot of minutes alongside lou williams in the backcourt, meeks just is not capable of being the player that the sixers need him to be.


   714. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4080069)
I am not a big ordinal rankings of players guy; I think tiers are generally more useful.

But even with a couple of holes in his game, I am pretty well convinced that Howard is the #2 player in the league right now. I think 3-10 or so you could have a lot of reasonable arguments.
   715. jmurph Posted: March 13, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4080099)
From Hoops Rumors:
The Bulls are exploring avenues to try to trade for Pau Gasol, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein (Twitter link). Chicago has been linked to Gasol multiple times in recent weeks, though this is the first time we've heard that they're actually looking into trade possibilities for the Lakers' big man.

I would think that would need to be a 3 teamer to get anything back the Lakers wanted, i.e. a PG. What say you RR?
   716. Moses Taylor peacocks peacock Posted: March 13, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4080102)
Worst shot in the NBA. That blog is awesome so far.
   717. Moses Taylor peacocks peacock Posted: March 13, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4080104)
I would think that would need to be a 3 teamer to get anything back the Lakers wanted, i.e. a PG. What say you RR?

It would also mean someone would want to trade for Boozer. I guess the Bulls could be offering Noah instead, but I highly doubt that. That, or little Buss thinks the Lakers have to trade Gasol no matter what; even though, they could still do better I would think.
   718. madvillain Posted: March 13, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4080108)
CJ Watson would be a big upgrade for the Lakers at PG and he's signed for 2 more years I believe.
   719. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 04:50 PM (#4080112)
so, there's a guy called mark titus who's written a book about his time playing basketball at ohio state. the book was reviewed here, and well, the evan turner that's been playing a lot the last couple of games seems a lot more like the evan turner that's talked about in the passage than the evan turner that was riding the bench for the first 120 games he's been a sixer.
   720. jmurph Posted: March 13, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4080113)
CJ Watson would be a big upgrade for the Lakers at PG and he's signed for 2 more years I believe.


But to get Pau they would obviously need to give up more than that. Deng, or Noah? None of that seems to add up, to me. So either this is just smoke, or it would need to be a multi-team trade.
   721. NJ in NY Posted: March 13, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4080116)
[719] I'm a huge fan of Titus since his blog days. Plan on buying the book.
   722. madvillain Posted: March 13, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4080117)
But to get Pau they would obviously need to give up more than that. Deng, or Noah? None of that seems to add up, to me. So either this is just smoke, or it would need to be a multi-team trade.


Pretty sure the Lakers have their hearts set on Deng. Not sure if Chicago is prepared to give him up for what would be an huge gamble with Pau.
   723. andrewberg Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4080124)
Watson + Deng + Gibson for Gasol? Salaries work. Bulls would be thin behind Rose.

Also: Watson, Kobe, Deng, Gibson, Bynum is a pretty well-balanced lineup, and very good defensively.
   724. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:05 PM (#4080125)
i believe chicago also has a conditional 1st round pick from charlotte that becomes unprotected in 2015.


also, has anyone noticed how well james johnson is playing defense up in toronto? he's averaging 2 blocks and 2 steals per 36 minutes, and he's got a D-rating under 100. that looks like it was a pretty nice pull for toronto from last season.
   725. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4080133)
huge gamble with Pau.


Pau is expensive, but he's not a "huge gamble." His health record has been pretty good and he is consistent. As I have said several times, I think his numbers are down in large part due to context.

I don't really see a deal that works here. Watson is OK, but he is not really the kind of playmaker/creator the Lakers need. I don't see why Chicago would want to give up Deng to get Gasol, and I don't see why the Lakers would want to give up Gasol to get Watson and Boozer.

Like I said, based on what seems to be out there, I would rather they try to keep Pau and try to get Sessions. I would probably move Pau to get a legitimately GOOD PG, like Lowry.
   726. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4080135)
Watson + Deng + Gibson for Gasol?


I thought of that--Gibson went to USC, which the Busses would like--and I would do it. Don't see why Chicago would do that, though.
   727. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4080141)
2016 for the unprotected Charlotte pick.
   728. andrewberg Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4080143)
Don't see why Chicago would do that, though.


Gasol is really good and they can amnesty Boozer after the year.
   729. madvillain Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4080145)
Don't see why Chicago would do that, though.


How long is Pau signed for? Gibson is a RFA and Chicago is unlikely to match the 4 year 32 million (or so) as that would put them firmly over the cap. He'd be a throw in and I believe Pau will expire before Deng, so Chicago frees up some future cap space.

I say "gamble" because I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade. Yea, it gives Rose a legit #2, but it also weakens their defense to the point it might not matter.
   730. Moses Taylor peacocks peacock Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4080146)
Don't see why Chicago would do that, though.

I think that's too much to give up. Does this move Boozer to the Bulls bench?
   731. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4080148)
Gasol is really good and they can amnesty Boozer after the year.


Sure, but they are still paying Pau almost $40M into the new tax year, and they lose a key guy on the second unit D, and a borderline All-Star 3.
   732. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4080149)
How long is Pau signed for?


Pau, like Kobe, is signed through 2014. I suspect that Old Man Buss thought the new tax rules would kick in after '14, rather than '13.
   733. Moses Taylor peacocks peacock Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4080150)
What's the trade machine say? Does another player coming back from the Lakers make sense, be it Barnes or Ebanks or Goodluck?
   734. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4080152)
Pau is better on D than he is given credit for. He is certainly better than Boozer. But yes, Gibson would be a big loss on D, as I note up above.

   735. andrewberg Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4080154)
What's the trade machine say? Does another player coming back from the Lakers make sense, be it Barnes or Ebanks or Goodluck?


That would be harder to work out because Pau already makes more than those three combined, and all the other mid-salary Chicago guys are signed at least through next year.
   736. Moses Taylor peacocks peacock Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4080156)
And it's a big step down at SF, from Deng to Brewer/Korver, and the Bulls might have to get through a team with a decent SF to get to the Finals, and the most likely rep from the West at this point also has a pretty good SF.
   737. Moses Taylor peacocks peacock Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4080158)
That would be harder to work out because Pau already makes more than those three combined, and all the other mid-salary Chicago guys are signed at least through next year.

Well, maybe last night convinced the Bulls they can trust Butler more and so Deng can be traded.
   738. Jimmy P Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4080161)
I would think that would need to be a 3 teamer to get anything back the Lakers wanted, i.e. a PG. What say you RR?


This. I don't think that the Lakers make any trade without upgrading point and a wing. The Bulls can't really help with one, CJ Watson's just not enough to get it done, probably. Once the rumors start involving more than two teams, the probability goes way way down on it happening.

2016 for the unprotected Charlotte pick.


Man, I still think they'll be in the lottery.

Supposedly, the Blazers want a 1st for Crawford and aren't going to trade him if they can't get it.
   739. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4080163)
Agree with Moses--don't really see a deal that works for both sides. I don't really think Chicago should do anything big unless they want to try to get Howard and woo him. Losing Deng to get Gasol right now is not a winning move for them.

As to the Lakers, Buss may well want to get Pau off the payroll before the tax kicks in, and based on the Paul deal, his concept of the team appears to be Kobe/Bynum/PG for the core. But I don't think a Bulls' deal works.
   740. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:48 PM (#4080167)
heat-magic tips off on NBATV at 7. this could possibly be dwight howard's last game in orlando.
   741. Moses Taylor peacocks peacock Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4080172)
Oh, nice. Bulls are catching the Heat tomorrow on the tail end of a road b2b. That's fortunate.
   742. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4080178)
Oh, nice. Bulls are catching the Heat tomorrow on the tail end of a road b2b. That's fortunate.
it's a hell of a week for the eastern conference leaders. the heat play orlando, chicago, and philly. philly plays indiana, miami, and chicago. and chicago plays miami (portland) and philly (and then orlando next monday).

both philly and orlando play back-to-backs against both miami and chicago this weekend. philly plays theirs friday-saturday, and orlando plays theirs sunday-monday (in addition to playing miami tonight).


there could be some consolidation here.
   743. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 13, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4080204)
Moses Taylor demands to be housewarmed Posted: March 13, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4080102)
Worst shot in the NBA. That blog is awesome so far.
What a great link. Thanks, Moses, that made my day!
   744. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 13, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4080212)
Howard with 12 and 7 in 8 minutes. Scary.
   745. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4080230)
is that a 20-0 run for miami?
   746. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 13, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4080238)
Indeed it was. That was... impressive.
   747. smileyy Posted: March 13, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4080242)
Dwyane Wade  SG 14 6-8 0-0 2-2 0 2 2 2 0 1 1 +13 14
LeBron James SF 18 5
-7 1-1 3-3 0 4 6 1 1 3 0 +12 14
Chris Bosh   PF 18 5
-7 0-0 5-6 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 +10 15 


Magic are lucky to be down only 11.
   748. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4080243)
2 quick sixers thoughts going into the meat of the trade deadline:

the trade exception and 2nd round draft picks that the sixers received for marreese speights could prove useful. if radmanovic is a target, he'd fit under the exception. and if jj hickson is on the block, he'd also fit. i think the best scenario would be for houston to declare themselves sellers and offer up chase budinger or courtney lee for draft picks. either one of them would look to be a really good fit to replace turner coming off the bench. i'm also slightly interested in terrence williams, who could possibly slot into turner's vacated role of secondary playmaker off the bench.


and there's andres nocioni's expiring contract. i mentioned the potential trade with atlanta upthread, but he'd also figure to be attractive to new jersey if they plan on cutting their cap number down to the bare minimum in advance of this summer's dwight howard sweepstakes. some combination of anthony morrow, shawne williams, deshawn stevenson, and jordan farmar could be very attractive for the sixers (in the offseason, if not at the deadline), and NJ would be able to shed the entirety of their contracts without taking any salary back going into their offseason whale hunt.

   749. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4080245)
Adrian Wojnarowski: Bucks and Warriors have agreed in principle on trade to send Bogut and Jackson to Warriors for Ellis, Udoh and Brown, league source tells Y! about 6 minutes ago

   750. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: March 13, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4080246)
Agree with Moses--don't really see a deal that works for both sides. I don't really think Chicago should do anything big unless they want to try to get Howard and woo him. Losing Deng to get Gasol right now is not a winning move for them.

As to the Lakers, Buss may well want to get Pau off the payroll before the tax kicks in, and based on the Paul deal, his concept of the team appears to be Kobe/Bynum/PG for the core. But I don't think a Bulls' deal works.


I agree that Deng for Pau is bad for both teams. The most likely way for the Bulls to get Pau would be in a 3-team trade with Orlando in which the Lakers get Dwight Howard. Then the Bulls could contribute assets to the Magic that the Lakers don't have (good and cheap role players, Charlotte pick), and Boozer's good O / bad D combo would be much more palatable to the Lakers with Dwight on the floor alongside him. If Dwight is set on the Nets, then I don't see a fit unless the Lakers really like someone on the Bulls' bench or a third team jumps in that values Boozer a lot more than the LA.
   751. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4080251)
that's a very interesting, if crowded, frontcourt that milwaukee's got right now.

kwame brown
drew gooden
ersan ilyasova
jon leuer
larry sanders
ekpe udoh
luc richard mbah a moute
jon brockman


i find it hard to believe they're done. there's no way there's enough minutes at the 4/5 to keep everyone of the above happy.


and i might be alone in thinking this, but i think golden state kept the wrong guard. putting together bogut and curry just seems to be begging for injury-related heartbreak.


oh, and a backcourt of monta ellis and brandon jennings should be a hell of a lot of fun to play against.
   752. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 13, 2012 at 09:02 PM (#4080256)
i find it hard to believe they're done. there's no way there's enough minutes at the 4/5 to keep everyone of the above happy.
There's no reason why the Bucks should feel a need to keep a bunch of those guys happy. Brockman should be grateful to be on the roster at all, and you don't want Kwame getting comfortable. (Kwame's hurt anyways.)
   753. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 13, 2012 at 09:04 PM (#4080257)
I've never seen a team so Jekyll-and-Hyde like these Lakers. They're a title contender at home, and an expansion team on the road.
   754. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 13, 2012 at 09:23 PM (#4080268)
So nobody watched that horrendous, yet enjoyable opening round game of the tourney?
   755. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 09:32 PM (#4080275)
overtime.
   756. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 13, 2012 at 09:56 PM (#4080285)
it's kind of unfathomable to me to see orlando play miami as strongly as this and then to think they'll break the team up by trading howard. they're deeply flawed, but as i said before, they can beat any team any night, and they have as good a chance of ousting miami as anyone else in the NBA.


at this point, even if they lose him for nothing, they're better off taking one last run at the title than they'll be with an extra draft pick and brook lopez.
   757. Spivey Posted: March 13, 2012 at 09:57 PM (#4080286)
So nobody watched that horrendous, yet enjoyable opening round game of the tourney?


I saw the last 5 minutes. It was shamefully bad.
   758. thok Posted: March 13, 2012 at 10:06 PM (#4080290)
Dear BYU, they already played the game between 16 seeds. Please try to pretend you deserved to be invited to the tournament.
   759. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 13, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4080295)
Neither of these teams deserved to be invited. Should be Washington vs. Miami right now.
   760. JJ1986 Posted: March 13, 2012 at 10:19 PM (#4080296)
Dear BYU, they already played the game between 16 seeds. Please try to pretend you deserved to be invited to the tournament.


I have no problem with the 68 teams, but if you're one of the last 4 teams in, you should be a 16 seed. That's what seeding is.
   761. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 13, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4080299)
I have no problem with the 68 teams, but if you're one of the last 4 teams in, you should be a 16 seed. That's what seeding is.


So punish the 1 seeds?
   762. JJ1986 Posted: March 13, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4080305)
1 seeds had been playing against play-in winners for ten years. It never hurt them.
   763. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 13, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4080307)
Because those play-in winners were on the level of the terrible 16 seeds they're playing now. You really don't see the difference between playing South Florida vs. UNC-Asheville?
   764. JJ1986 Posted: March 13, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4080309)
No, that would be unfair. But South Florida and Cal should both be guaranteed spots in the 64. And Asheville and LIU could play a play-in game.
   765. Der_K Posted: March 13, 2012 at 10:41 PM (#4080310)
lal 28 fta, mem 5?
unc-a should be higher than a 16 as is. regardless, i really don't like moving to 68.
   766. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 13, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4080318)
Well, personally, I'd prefer a straight 64. It's not like USF, Cal, BYU, or Iona would have a great beef for not getting in. I kind of see where they were coming from in not having the 4 16s be the play-in team, further marginalizing the small schools.

I'd imagine if Iona or the winner of USF/Cal goes on a run to the elite 8, there'll be rumblings already about how a change needs to be made to not give these play in teams a momentum advantage.

ETA: I just hope it's not something even dumber like moving to 96.

ETA: [765] Lamar should be the one bumped to 15, not Asheville, but they may not want the 2 HBCs as 16s.
   767. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 11:20 PM (#4080326)
ESPNSteinLine Marc Stein
Should be clear by now Dwight wants to finish season in ORL so he can opt out in July and head straight to Brooklyn w/out Nets being gutted
10 minutes ago

ESPNSteinLine Marc Stein
RT @WallaceNBA_ESPN: Dwight Howard said tonight he's informed Magic he wants to stay for rest of season. Said they now must "roll the dice."
13 minutes ago

johnhollinger John Hollinger
RT @bruce_arthur: If Orlando doesn't trade Dwight now, they're the guy who thinks that stripper really likes them.
5 minutes ago


Bynum: 15/18 FG, 37/16 49 min
Howard: 9/13 FG 6/18 FT, 24/25 47 min

No, I am not implying Orlando should trade Howard here. Just an interesting night.



   768. Der_K Posted: March 13, 2012 at 11:23 PM (#4080328)
Normally, they're willing to stick both the winners of the MEAC and SWAC in the 16 slots, just not have both participate in play-in game (one does, one doesn't).
I'll give you Lamar over UNC-A, though #### Coach Knight.
   769. tshipman Posted: March 13, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4080330)
Okay, sorry for this as the discussion has moved on.


He's what, the 2nd best player on Orlando, but would be the 2nd or 3rd guy off the bench for a team 10 games worse? Yes, a lot of the difference between Orlando and Milwaukee is Howard, but come on.

I will say, between this and the Harden discussion, you seem to have a high bar for young players (not a criticism, just an observation).


It's not young players so much as it's role players. I am deeply skeptical of guys who take half their shots from 3p. That has never been the sort of thing that a lead guy on a really good team does. My original comment (7th or 8th man on Milwaukee) was overstated. I had forgotten how good of an offensive rebounder he is.

Here's why I am skeptical of Anderson. Let's give him Kevin Love's shots per game (to reflect greater usage) as well as Love's number of 3p taken per game (to reflect defenses crowding him off the 3p line with no Howard). Leave the percentages on his shots the same (so he still hits from 3 at 42%).

Taking Anderson to the usage levels of the star most similar to him (IMO), drops his eFG% to .501--a full 50 points lower than his current numbers.


I realize that this is sort of "if my aunt had balls" analysis, but I'm trying to explain why I heavily discount production that depends disproportionately on taking open 3pers.

   770. robinred Posted: March 13, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4080347)
Orlando as we see above is being mocked by some after Howard’s statement tonight, but they are sitting at 28-15, have the 3rd seed, and have beaten Chicago and Miami over the last 10 days. Although he did it in what I see as a backhanded way, Howard said tonight that he wants to stay the rest of the year.

Maybe they will try to get Ellis from the Bucks...
   771. SouthSideRyan Posted: March 14, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4080352)
55 points in the first 15:30 for Iona.

10 points in the last 17:30 for Iona.
   772. robinred Posted: March 14, 2012 at 01:04 AM (#4080361)
KBergCBS Quite clearly, Dwight wants his cake and eat it, too. Some Magic officials privately disgusted with his comments tonight, sources say.
   773. JoeHova Posted: March 14, 2012 at 03:02 AM (#4080386)
The Bogut deal is a depressing one for the Bucks. I'm not sure a person can say Monta Ellis is overrated, exactly, because it's hard to know just where people rate him. But he is terrible and it seems like not everybody realizes it yet. Just a dumbass player with no idea how to play and no conception of defense. Brandon Jennings will be sad too, no more getting to score 55 on Ellis except in practice.

And Udoh. Ugh. Warriors fans have positive reports on his defense but Warriors fans are, in my opinion, the 3rd most delusional fanbase, behind only Toronto fans and NY fans. Even if he is good defensively (which he certainly wasn't last season when I saw more Warriors games), a 4/5 who rebounds like Andrea Bargnani is not something smart teams are especially interested in.

At least Stephen Jackson was salary dumped in the deal. Cold comfort...
   774. Athletic Supporter gangnam style Posted: March 14, 2012 at 03:11 AM (#4080387)
My Warriors fan friends are pretty unhappy about the trade too. I dunno, I don't think this is getting either team out of purgatory.
   775. Dave Bell Posted: March 14, 2012 at 03:23 AM (#4080389)
Now that he's gone from the Bucks, how does Bogut rank on the ladder of #1 draft pick in providing value to the drafting team? My initial thoughts are lower middle...
   776. JoeHova Posted: March 14, 2012 at 03:42 AM (#4080392)
I dunno, I don't think this is getting either team out of purgatory.

I mostly agree with that, depending on exactly how good a team has to be to escape purgatory. Bogut is good, not great (though he showed signs of becoming great before he was gruesomely injured in a game against Phoenix in 2010). He appears to be a liability on offense now, though he's still a good rebounder and great defender. If he has a healthy year and Lee somehow stops sucking, the Warriors should be pretty good, especially now that they don't have to accommodate Monta's ugly, losing style of play.

It's not like this is a franchise crippling move by the Bucks. Losing a good center hurts but Bogut wasn't going to carry them to a title any time soon. It's more that it's yet another move that shows the GM (John Hammond, former golden boy assistant GM under Joe Dumars. Funny how both of them look like morons now. That great Detroit team seems to have been a massive fluke. Either that or the 2 of them are like radio waves with opposite phases and their stupidity cancels each other out) has no plan or reliable way to value players. He got nothing really useful for the 3rd best center in the league. It's annoying.
   777. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: March 14, 2012 at 06:19 AM (#4080399)
Big report in the NY Post this morning that Carmelo Anthony wants out and at odds with everyone in the organization. Please give his wish.
   778. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: March 14, 2012 at 06:56 AM (#4080405)
Carmelo's pouty because he doesn't get enough "feedback" from Grunwald and D'Antoni.

OK, here's your feedback:

You suck.

Questions, comments?
   779. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: March 14, 2012 at 07:16 AM (#4080409)
Mitch Lawrence in the NY Daily News calls on the Knicks to make the Anthony/Chandler for Howard/Hedo trade. I don't see that either team should say no to that deal.
   780. AROM Posted: March 14, 2012 at 07:56 AM (#4080414)
"I realize that this is sort of "if my aunt had balls" analysis, but I'm trying to explain why I heavily discount production that depends disproportionately on taking open 3pers."

I agree that he's not going to shoot as many open threes in most other situations. But Anderson is really good for other reasons. Last night I was mostly impressed by his defense, rebounding, and hustle.
   781. jmurph Posted: March 14, 2012 at 08:30 AM (#4080422)
Mitch Lawrence in the NY Daily News calls on the Knicks to make the Anthony/Chandler for Howard/Hedo trade. I don't see that either team should say no to that deal.


Something tells me Stan Van and Carmelo would not exactly be a match made in heaven.
   782. AROM Posted: March 14, 2012 at 09:10 AM (#4080434)
Orlando, if they trade Dwight, would probably be best off long term by taking a package heavy in draft picks. Blow up the team. Getting good players (but far less than Superman) back would just mean they have a very expensive 45 win team going forward.

But I think they are best off keeping him for the playoff run. Doing so doesn't mean they think Dwight really likes them and will resign. Just that keeping him gives them a chance, though a slight one, of getting back to the NBA finals.

No matter what they get back in a trade you have no idea when the next time such a chance will come around.
   783. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: March 14, 2012 at 09:30 AM (#4080446)
Orlando, if they trade Dwight, would probably be best off long term by taking a package heavy in draft picks. Blow up the team. Getting good players (but far less than Superman) back would just mean they have a very expensive 45 win team going forward.

But I think they are best off keeping him for the playoff run. Doing so doesn't mean they think Dwight really likes them and will resign. Just that keeping him gives them a chance, though a slight one, of getting back to the NBA finals.


The problem, though, is that if Howard's already got his mind set to leave, he may not give you the balls out effort you need to beat Miami or Chicago. In addition to the fact that it's human nature not to, he also (subconsciously, if not consciously) wouldn't want to put himself in the position of leading the team deep in the playoffs and then having to leave.

I don't see Howard as a guy who's going to put aside what's going on and playing full-scale balls out. He won't loaf, and will be professional, but you need more from him than that.
   784. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 14, 2012 at 09:33 AM (#4080449)
KBergCBS Quite clearly, Dwight wants his cake and eat it, too. Some Magic officials privately disgusted with his comments tonight, sources say.
But I think they are best off keeping him for the playoff run. Doing so doesn't mean they think Dwight really likes them and will resign. Just that keeping him gives them a chance, though a slight one, of getting back to the NBA finals.
i think the issue is that dwight wants to go to new jersey without them having to gut the team (in terms of draft picks or players) in a trade to get him.
   785. JJ1986 Posted: March 14, 2012 at 09:46 AM (#4080454)
The Magic would have a much rosier post-Howard outlook if they hadn't dumped Bass and Gortat for garbage. It's inexcusable what they've done to prepare for this eventuality.
   786. Spivey Posted: March 14, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4080460)
I like the Bogut deal for the Warriors. He's injury prone, but a couple of his main injuries were the kind of things that are going to hurt anyone (weird/flukish dunk fall) and landing on someone's ankle this year. When he's healthy he's still the 3rd or 4th best center in the game. It may add injury risk to their team, but I think it increases their ceiling when the team is healthy. So, it gives them at least a chance to make a run in/to the playoffs.

Also, allow me to say it's a shame that no team can get Stephen Jackson under control. A lot of talent, but it wasn't an accident the Spurs let him walk.
   787. Spivey Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:03 AM (#4080463)
The Magic would have a much rosier post-Howard outlook if they hadn't dumped Bass and Gortat for garbage. It's inexcusable what they've done to prepare for this eventuality.

No kidding. The year they went the finals, they had a deep team with a bunch of guys that could contribute. It's amazing how quickly that all went to ####. And if some of what has been rumored is true - that they've done a lot of this for Howard... well then between how quickly the talent eroded around him and around LeBron when the players were calling some shots, and then the fact that they moth both end up having moved on... well it goes to show why you don't let a star player have that much say over personnel.
   788. Der_K Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4080467)
But how do you tell your star that?
***
Orlando's owner is in his mid-80s - I think that's a big part of why they (seemingly) don't want to try to rebuild.
   789. NJ in NY Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:16 AM (#4080468)
I love Tyson Chandler, but I hate Melo more, so if giving him up is what it takes to get Melo out of town I'm all for it. This, of course, assumes the Magic would be interested and I doubt that.
   790. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:34 AM (#4080476)

I love Tyson Chandler, but I hate Melo more, so if giving him up is what it takes to get Melo out of town I'm all for it. This, of course, assumes the Magic would be interested and I doubt that.


This. Stephen A Smith is saying that Melo's about to get D'Antoni pushed out the door by the end of next week. Melo's just been a disaster all around (not that I think D'Antoni is great.)
   791. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:38 AM (#4080482)
Mitch Lawrence in the NY Daily News calls on the Knicks to make the Anthony/Chandler for Howard/Hedo trade. I don't see that either team should say no to that deal


The Magic would be crazy to do this.
   792. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4080485)
i don't see why new jersey would offer anything to orlando at this point. howard has made it pretty obviously clear that it's his intention to go with them to brooklyn.

though, i do wonder what would happen if orlando traded him to LA for pau gasol. the lakers were on his list of 3 teams he'd sign an extension with, but since he's apparently set his sights on new jersey, i wonder if he'd still consider signing there.
   793. mike f Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4080495)
The Magic would have a much rosier post-Howard outlook if they hadn't dumped Bass and Gortat for garbage.
And signed the garbage to extensions.

Orlando's owner is in his mid-80s - I think that's a big part of why they (seemingly) don't want to try to rebuild.
And they have luxury boxes to fill. Attendance will crater if Dwight leaves for nothing. Glen Davis is their back-up center, for crissakes! I could honestly see them taking Carmelo and Chandler, just because SF and C are/would be giant holes for them.
   794. AROM Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4080497)
As a Lakers fan, I'm perfectly fine not making a move in the front court and keeping Bynum. I know we can't count on his continued health given his history, and it's impossible to say no to getting Dwight Howard, but if the trade deadline passes with no big move I'm not going to be upset. Bynum has been incredible lately.

What they really need is one of the old F'in A type trades that brings in a point guard without giving up any major part of the current rotation. I know this isn't going to happen, especially in the next 24 hours, but to do this they need to bring back Jerry West so he can either:

1) Make the F'in A trade or
2) Suit up his 70+ year old body and replace 80 year old Fisher in the lineup.
   795. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4080501)
Melo's "people" have said for awhile now that he was promised that D'Antoni would be out at the end of last year.

A civil war has basically broken out in the NY papers, including the Times, as well as ESPN NY. The small pro-Melo faction in the locker room, the big anti-Melo faction in the locker room, and similar factions in the front office and suits. No holds barred; and yes, in less than a basketball year since he decided he wanted to come here, NYC has swallowed "franchise player" Carmelo Anthony and spit him out, reducing him to a "Nobody likes me, nobody understands me, nobody listens to me" babbling, simpering embarrassment.

Yet another season of ultra-efficient, Eyes on the Prize Knickerbocker basketball. Well played.
   796. Jimmy P Posted: March 14, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4080504)
i think the issue is that dwight wants to go to new jersey without them having to gut the team (in terms of draft picks or players) in a trade to get him

Exactly. Even if it's not New Jersey, he's been so damn wishy-washy during this whole thing. You can easily rip on both Lebron and Melo, but I think they both handled this better. Lebron didn't say a word. He just said that it's an offseason thing and played. And Melo let it be known before the season he wasn't re-signing. Better than Howard, he's been on both sides now. Howard's going to come out looking like a real ass if he does anything except stay in Orlando.

My Warriors fan friends are pretty unhappy about the trade too. I dunno, I don't think this is getting either team out of purgatory.

No, but I like it for the Warriors. As I said yesterday, they needed to just make up their mind which small guard they were going to keep and move on. They sucked with both, may as well trade one and be serious about playing in the NBA. They've done that, they brought in a high risk, high reward guy, and they'll still suck enough because he's hurt now to probably stay in the high lottery. While it's not an immediate franchise fix, it's a step in the right direction.

As for the Bucks, has Hammond watched the Warriors the last few years? He willingly took on their problem: two small, offensive minded low percentage guards that want/need the ball.

This. Stephen A Smith is saying that Melo's about to get D'Antoni pushed out the door by the end of next week. Melo's just been a disaster all around (not that I think D'Antoni is great.)

You know, at this point, it's probably not a bad idea to get rid of D'Antoni. His offense is not a match for their personnel at all, and since it appears he's not going to adjust at all, may as well dump him. They should probably dump Melo, too, if they can find someone.

Totally homerish here, but they could easily take some combination of Portland's one year guys (Crawford, Wallace, Camby, Felton) for Melo and Toney Douglas. It works. It dumps a lot of money off New York's cap while giving D'Antoni (assuming he's kept) guys he can use, and it gives Portland a marquee guy. Not saying it's great for the Blazers, but Paul Allen gave up doing sensible basketball things when he fired Rich Cho, so at least this gives him a shiny name.
   797. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: March 14, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4080513)


You know, at this point, it's probably not a bad idea to get rid of D'Antoni. His offense is not a match for their personnel at all, and since it appears he's not going to adjust at all, may as well dump him. They should probably dump Melo, too, if they can find someone.

Totally homerish here, but they could easily take some combination of Portland's one year guys (Crawford, Wallace, Camby, Felton) for Melo and Toney Douglas. It works. It dumps a lot of money off New York's cap while giving D'Antoni (assuming he's kept) guys he can use, and it gives Portland a marquee guy. Not saying it's great for the Blazers, but Paul Allen gave up doing sensible basketball things when he fired Rich Cho, so at least this gives him a shiny name.


Ole' Jimmy of JD and the Straight Shot wouldn't ever do this deal. He'd insist on Greg Oden and Brandon Roy(who would have to unretire). He'd then sign both to the largest extensions he could. This is the trouble with a potential Melo deal: Dolan will get involved and find a way to make the worst deal possible. I would have been fine with the original Walsh plan for getting Melo but no, we had to throw in Gallo. Dealing away Melo? Who knows what we get. Jimmy Dolan's like the guy in your fantasy league who picks up players based on name recognition and nothing else.

I kid you not: the reason I don't want to see D'Antoni go is that it raises the specter of Isiah's return. This is totally plausible. Guh.
   798. Jimmy P Posted: March 14, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4080520)
He'd insist on Greg Oden and Brandon Roy(who would have to unretire)

To nitpick, Oden's on a cheap expiring, and Roy's a free agent. Anyone except the Blazers can sign him for anything.
   799. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: March 14, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4080521)
Jarrod Rudolph: Ive been telling you all about D'Antoni from the second he arrived in NYC. He was the wrong man then and the wrong man now. He's the problem 2 minutes ago

[Tommy Dee] Tommy Dee: Knicks “Engage” Orlando About Howard; Sloan “Interested” in #Knicks Job? http://www.theknicksblog.com/2012/0… 1 minute ago


As for the Bucks, has Hammond watched the Warriors the last few years? He willingly took on their problem: two small, offensive minded low percentage guards that want/need the ball.

plus, his second guard isn't as good as their second guard.


although, ilyasova is possibly better than anyone golden state ever put around their combo.
Totally homerish here, but they could easily take some combination of Portland's one year guys (Crawford, Wallace, Camby, Felton) for Melo and Toney Douglas. It works. It dumps a lot of money off New York's cap while giving D'Antoni (assuming he's kept) guys he can use, and it gives Portland a marquee guy. Not saying it's great for the Blazers, but Paul Allen gave up doing sensible basketball things when he fired Rich Cho, so at least this gives him a shiny name.
it's surprising to me how quickly people have forgotten about how good melo is. even people here, people who count themselves among the more analytical thinkers in this sport are just completely writing off his ability to be a part of a winning core.


   800. Jimmy P Posted: March 14, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4080526)
it's surprising to me how quickly people have forgotten about how good melo is. even people here, people who count themselves among the more analytical thinkers in this sport are just completely writing off his ability to be a part of a winning core.


Not me. Just a few pages ago I was the one who brought up the idea that Melo's good and taking way too much blame.

It's just not going to end well for him in New York. Between their schedule being more difficult now, and the New York media having a new beau to swoon over, Melo's the goat. I just read an article in the Times about how Melo stinks and is the reason they lose. Just put everyone out of their misery and end it. Melo will get over all his lost marketing opportunities and have to go somewhere else. I propose Portland because I know they're looking for a guy like that, they have a ton of expirings, and there's not a chance that they'd ever lure a guy like that up here as a free agent.
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