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Tuesday, May 01, 2012

OT: NBA Monthly Thread, May 2012

I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what the site is really about: Bryce Harper getting mooned by a Dodgers fan, how dumb interleague baseball is, or random spamming of Yankees/RedSox news that barely counts as news.

Tripon Posted: May 01, 2012 at 10:28 AM | 2330 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1901. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: May 27, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4141115)
Good for them, but that seems to be Orlando or Atlanta's problem?

You're right, I misread division as conference. Because it honestly didn't occur to me that anybody gave a rat's ass about winning the division.
   1902. Quaker Posted: May 27, 2012 at 01:27 AM (#4141116)
There's zero chance Turner would fetch Favors. Like, literally none.
   1903. baudib Posted: May 27, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4141118)
How about Kanter? How about Iggy?
   1904. baudib Posted: May 27, 2012 at 06:55 AM (#4141128)
PG: jrue holiday
SG: kevin martin
SF: evan turner
PF: pau gasol
C: lavoy allen

bench:
lou williams
sam young
nik vucevic
(spencer hawes)
(jodie meeks)

the sixers would still have the MLE and the BAE to work with, along with 6 draft picks over the next 2 years (15, 45, and 54 this year, and their own picks, plus NOH's 2nd rounder in 2013).


Having thought more about this, I think this is a lot better but I'm not sure it can get done on Iggy for Gasol, Thad for Martin straight up.

My question to you is, is this with Doug Collins as coach? Cuz I'm not sure it works then, and also I think that either Turner or Collins has to go. I'm not sure Turner should play 2 or 3.

I'd amnesty Brand, let Hawes walk, trade Iggy or Turner for a big guy. (Fire DC/Hire SVG) Sign Allen to a 3-year deal.

Try to sign Roy Hibbert. When that doesn't work, try to sign Kris Humphries? Try to sign Lou to a reasonable deal or let him walk.
   1905. PJ Martinez Posted: May 27, 2012 at 09:26 AM (#4141144)
the way i look at it, the sixers will only have one opportunity to bring in a true stud big man to play alongside jrue holiday, and i just am not convinced that pau gasol is the right one to go after.

I can understand this perspective, but I think the gap between Gasol and Iggy as players (particularly w/r/t to their trade value, bigs generally fetching more than wings and offensive players often fetching more than defensive players) is such that even at the end of their contracts, I think Gasol is likely to have more value than Iguodala. So getting him actually might make it easier to get another stud later should one become available.

Depending, of course, on who else LA asked for.

As for Utah: Could Philly make the salaries work for Jefferson? Would there be any reason to do that? I'm not a big fan of Jefferson's game, but I'm assuming he wouldn't cost much in terms of talent.
   1906. Quaker Posted: May 27, 2012 at 10:34 AM (#4141159)
I think Jefferson for Iguodala would make some sense for both teams. The Jazz could use Iggy's defense even if he isn't the outside threat they need, and Philly could use someone who can create shots at a reasonably efficient clip.
   1907. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4141171)
I'd amnesty Brand, let Hawes walk, trade Iggy or Turner for a big guy. (Fire DC/Hire SVG) Sign Allen to a 3-year deal.
Don't amnesty Brand. An $18 million expiring contract can be an extremely useful thing in this salary cap age.

I counted at least four fast break opportunities where the Sixers had numbers and somehow came up with nothing. Between those and the free throws, that's the game.

And I would absolutely be against any Gasol-for-Iggy trade. Iggy's a nice player, but he's no Pau Gasol. Given the new Laker regime, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Gasol-for-Brand trade, just to same some money in 2014.
   1908. kpelton Posted: May 27, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4141180)
I get that you aren't really picking on an individual person (i.e. me, poor me) ...

The people I'm picking on either don't realize or won't acknowledge that aesthetics is part of their logic.

As for the theory, I'd say I'm not sure it squares with the research I did here: http://82games.com/pelton13.htm and here: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1412 showing increased efficiency by role players when playing with Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony.

   1909. steagles Posted: May 27, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4141186)
I think Jefferson for Iguodala would make some sense for both teams. The Jazz could use Iggy's defense even if he isn't the outside threat they need, and Philly could use someone who can create shots at a reasonably efficient clip.
if they bring in jefferson, i think they'd probably really benefit from keeping iguodala. a trade involving those two players would mean the sixers would be downgrading 2 positions defensively, and quite possibly turn the team's biggest strength into a liability without adequately solving the team's scoring issues.

And I would absolutely be against any Gasol-for-Iggy trade. Iggy's a nice player, but he's no Pau Gasol. Given the new Laker regime, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Gasol-for-Brand trade, just to same some money in 2014.
now, that is something i would be all over.
   1910. Booey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4141192)
#1869 - Is that question directed at me or Squash? Is the draft so deep this year that a #8 pick should be a hotter commodity than a top 4 pick next season?

Many commentators feel this is one of the deeper drafts in awhile, At 8, who is the worse player you get -- John Henson, Perry Jones? Who is the best player you get next year at 4 -- James Michael McAdoo, Cody Zeller?


I haven't been paying attention to the college scene, so I have no idea which draft would be better. But I agree that I'd rather have the pick sooner (i.e. this year, rather than next).

Count me in with Tom and Quaker that Favors for Turner makes no sense for the Jazz and there's not a chance in hell I would even consider it if I were management. Jefferson for Iggy would at least be worth thinking about since bigs are the one area the Jazz are well stocked in, though I personally think they should just keep all 3 and see how that big lineup works for an entire season. It didn't work against the Spurs, obviously, but neither would anything else the Jazz (or Clips) could have done instead.
   1911. thok Posted: May 27, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4141240)
So what I'm getting from this is that Philly should try trading Turner for Jefferson.
   1912. Quaker Posted: May 27, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4141248)
There's no way the Jazz would do that. Turner is not good. He can't shoot. Hayward is already younger & better.

Say what you want about his defense, but Jefferson is a good player. He had a better PER (12th in the league) than Aldridge, Dirk & Monroe.

The idea that the Jazz are going to give him away for Caron Butler (as was said a few pages ago) or Turner is, umm, unrealistic.
   1913. baudib Posted: May 27, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4141253)
Has there ever been a player who dramatically improved his 3-point shooting while simultaneously becoming a terrible free-throw shooter the way Iggy did this year?
   1914. robinred Posted: May 27, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4141304)
DK,

Understood.

Pau:

As I have said, although Pau has said several times that he wants to stay in LA, I think he is a better basketball fit elsewhere at this point, and I think he has perhaps lost less to age than it might appear. As noted, his role is less than optimal on this team, as he missed both Odom and the Triangle. The LA Times recently ran long piece in which he was quoted extensively about his role and his issus with it. Some of the fanbase at this point would actually rather that they move Bynum than Gasol for a variety of reasons (knee, tude, up for a big extension, could probably get a better return). Kobe and Pau's deals both expire in 2014, so some fans want the team to see what they can get for Bynum, do whatever can be done the next two years, and then start over, as opposed to giving Bynum a 5-6 year deal.

As an aside, Kyle Lowry stated earlier this week that he would rather be moved than continue playing for Kevin McHale, so that will be an issue that Morey and Co will have to address, one way or another. ISTM that teams that might want Gasol would be:

Houston
Minnesota
Indiana
Philadelphia
Atlanta

Whether a deal could be worked out in those cases that would work for both sides is of course a trickier question.

I see no way that Derrick Favors is going anywhere.
   1915. robinred Posted: May 27, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4141330)
Nevertheless, I am sure Kupchuk could find a couple of guys around the association that can feed the post during this offseason.


It isn't that simple. When you lack shooting and dribble-drive skills and speed, it becomes a problem. Also, Pau and Bynum are, again, both very slow-footed--not guys who are good at flashing to the rim or running the floor, and not great roll men. And, on a more basic level, Gasol and Bynum aren't Tim Duncan and David Robinson. A lot of people inside the fanbase give them too much crap; a lot of people outside it give them too much credit.

If they keep the same team, the key to improvement on O will be utilizing Sessions better on O, who ostensibly was supposed to address the speed/penetration issues. They also will need a 3/D type role player. Kobe's D has really declined, and Sessions' D was even worse than I had thought it would be. Mike Brown has been quoted many times as saying he is a defensive coach, D is about wanting it, etc. If Sessions stays, Brown needs to back those words up and help to improve Sessions' work on that side of the ball.

But I doubt that they will keep the same team. I think either Gasol or Bynum will be gone, and there is a good chance Sessions will be as well.

Buss and Kupchak did try to address the shooting, but they did it by adding a guy who is not an NBA player (Kapono) and a guy who is barely playable (Murphy). So of course it didn't work.
   1916. robinred Posted: May 27, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4141333)
Edit still not working for me. Couple of typos.
   1917. steagles Posted: May 27, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4141350)
Having thought more about this, I think this is a lot better but I'm not sure it can get done on Iggy for Gasol, Thad for Martin straight up.
assuming a little growth from holiday, you'd get ~18 from gasol, ~18 from martin, and ~18 from holiday. that's still a roster with balanced scoring, but instead of the leading scorers being bunched at 12 PPG, they'd be bunched at 18.

and as i've pointed out, the sixers have 6 picks in the next 2 years, so that gives them some ammunition to throw in.


My question to you is, is this with Doug Collins as coach? Cuz I'm not sure it works then, and also I think that either Turner or Collins has to go. I'm not sure Turner should play 2 or 3.
i really hope that collins is gone, regardless of whatever other moves are made. i thought he did a terrible job of keeping everyone on the team hungry and focused, and i think their late season collapses were a direct result of his shortening the rotation (which hit the team hard in 2 ways--1, it tired the legs of the team's core, and 2, it took multiple players out of the rotation (lavoy, nik, jodie, sam), which limited their ability to help the team down the stretch, since they weren't game-ready). and as i've said before, i think he psyched out his own players by screwing with their minutes like a lunatic. maybe there were off-court issues (or maybe there were injury issues) that necessitated that kind of shuffling, but lavoy allen, who was the team's best forward in the postseason, was a DNP-CD 25 times this year. nik vucevic went for 18 and 8 one night, and then a week later, he was the 9th man in the rotation, barely getting off the bench. evan turner was in the starting lineup for the rest of the season, and then he wasn't.

i'd just prefer to see a new coach brought in who's got a stronger focus on player development.

if all of this #### that collins did worked, and if the team surged in the second half of the season, i'd have no issue with bringing him back.

but when the team started its downturn, he just did not have any answers for it, and much of what he did actually hurt the team in the short term, and really clouded its future in the long term.

I'd amnesty Brand, let Hawes walk, trade Iggy or Turner for a big guy. (Fire DC/Hire SVG) Sign Allen to a 3-year deal.

Try to sign Roy Hibbert. When that doesn't work, try to sign Kris Humphries? Try to sign Lou to a reasonable deal or let him walk.
please tell me that's lavoy allen and not ray allen.

and i'm not a huge fan of humphries. i'd much rather see what thaddeus young could do as a full-time starter.
   1918. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 27, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4141364)
How about Kanter? How about Iggy?


Kanter for Turner? I'd say possible. I wouldn't do it because I don't like Turner, though.

I would definitely do Jefferson for Iggy. I'm not as sure about it from the Sixers end...as Steagles points out adding Jefferson and losing Iggy could turn their defense into a weakness. Is Jefferson's contract a plus to the Sixers in comparison to Gasol's? He only has one year left, so it would not prevent the Sixers from acquiring a star like Gasol might. FWIW, Jefferson has at least really improved his passing and from my viewpoint seems to be great with the young Jazz players, especially Favors and Kanter.
   1919. Backlasher Posted: May 27, 2012 at 05:11 PM (#4141371)
It's not really fair to compare Bryant's winning percentage on a team that had Shaq, Eddie Jones, and Van Exel that can develop Bryant as a 11.5 shot per game player to his winning percentage on a team that had Lamar Odom, Smush Parker, and Brian Cook that needs Bryant to chuck up 27 shots to have a competent offense.

Ok, I'll take out his first two years.


count<10 73.42%
count >10 64.48% -8.94%
count>15 62.01% -2.47%
count>20 57.67% -4.35%
count>25 53.56% -4.11%
count >30 44.57% -8.99%

I think you meant the first three years b/e the trend is still there, so I'll show that too

count<10 67.35%
count >10 64.55% -2.80%
count>15 62.53% -2.03%
count>20 57.67% -4.86%
count>25 53.56% -4.11%
count >30 44.57% -8.99%


But you are correct that the effect is minimized during the Smush era.



count<10 60.00%
count >10 51.13% -8.87%
count>15 51.49% 0.35%
count>20 50.35% -1.14%
count>25 49.40% -0.95%
count >30 50.00% 0.60%

In the post smush world, where there is no youngness or smushness

count<10 63.33%
count >10 67.23% 3.89%
count>15 64.45% -2.77%
count>20 59.60% -4.86%
count>25 53.85% -5.75%
count >30 36.36% -17.49%

Again, I urge anyone to take a look and correct; however, it seems the trend remains. Changing the narrative and the parameters will affect the magnitude of the trend, but I presume that is always going to be the case when you narrow the space. The only slight break in the trend is looking at just a two year slice.

   1920. Backlasher Posted: May 27, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4141377)
It isn't that simple. ...

I mostly agree. I am not sure I would have even identified the post/entry pass as a particular deficiency. I am one of those "outside the fanbase" guys that see a better Lakers team when they run the offense through the high post rather than a punch of isos and PNRs. You guys see them more, disagree with this assertion, so I am happy to defer to you.

But I don't think its 3 Point shooters. Artest will be better at that next year. Blake (for as sh1tty as he played) can still do that. If that was just a piece issue, you could probably deal with those Utah guys at get Blake Ahern for pennies.

I don't think its just a strong D/3 either. Artest isn't what he use to be, but he is still a plus defender. Barnes may be past the point of getting you something. But again, if that is all that is missing, then you can usually find that in the draft and the D league. I haven't seen as much of Ebanks as you, but isn't that what he is suppose to be?

Nevertheless, I do entirely agree that you need speed on the wings. Now if you are searching for a wing that is very fast, a lock down defender, a plus 3 point shooter, and an efficient scorer-- that may be an issue. Every team wants that player, and that player is usually near the all-NBA team.

I am skeptical that just picking up the passer is the answer, b/c if you keep Kobe's utilization at that rate, and it is from the ball being in his hands in isos and PNRs, that other players skill isn't going to be on display. In fact, IMHO, that is what is happening with Pau.
   1921. steagles Posted: May 27, 2012 at 05:40 PM (#4141382)
Kanter for Turner? I'd say possible. I wouldn't do it because I don't like Turner, though.
i am a huge fan of kanter's rebounding, but i'm not sure he does enough of everything else to make that a gamechanging type of acquisition.

I would definitely do Jefferson for Iggy. I'm not as sure about it from the Sixers end...as Steagles points out adding Jefferson and losing Iggy could turn their defense into a weakness. Is Jefferson's contract a plus to the Sixers in comparison to Gasol's? He only has one year left, so it would not prevent the Sixers from acquiring a star like Gasol might. FWIW, Jefferson has at least really improved his passing and from my viewpoint seems to be great with the young Jazz players, especially Favors and Kanter.


you know, i'd have significant reservations about that kind of deal, but i think i could get behind it.

holiday-XXX-turner-jefferson-allen. with lou williams (likely UFA), jodie meeks (RFA), sam young (RFA), thad young, and nik vucevic still on the bench, and picks 15, 45, and 54 in the draft.

holiday will be 22. vucevic will be 22. allen will be 23. turner will be 24. thaddeus young will be 24. lou williams will be 26. al jefferson will be 28.

they'd be in definite need of some spot-up shooters, but that's not a terrible starting point for a roster.
   1922. steagles Posted: May 27, 2012 at 06:10 PM (#4141389)
if anyone wants a bit of a chuckle, this is a chart that compares royce white to other (relatively) recent collegiate players.

his top 4 comparables are greg monroe, earl clark, andre iguodala, and evan turner. turner and iguodala are listed around 215 lbs, while white is listed at a slim, trim, buff, cut, ripped, chiseled, and jacked 270 lbs.


there's similar charts on a lot of the other 2012 draftees, so if that kind of stuff interests you, have fun.
   1923. robinred Posted: May 27, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4141395)
You guys see them more, disagree with this assertion, so I am happy to defer to you.


Not exactly. I have said several times that they need to stop running so many ISOs with Kobe due to his age and hands. That is in the numbers and is visible with the eyes.

As far as high P/R, that is partly true and that is largely a Mike Brown problem. Brown at times basically seemed to run a Chris Paul offense without having either Chris Paul or a decent roll man that he would play after McRoberts lost his rotation spot. Early in the year, Brown talked about all the changes he had to make in his plan due to not having "a guy like Chris Paul or Tony Parker." Then, when he got a homeless man's version of those guys, he didn't use him all that well. The Lakers started off very well with Sessions and Bryant playing together, but Sessions for a variety of reasons could not sustain it. My position has been that Kobe should have a high USG, but should be getting more looks based on off-the-ball actions and on the blocks.

Also, AFAIK, 3/D guy means guy who shoots 3s and plays D (I may be wrong). The Lakers FO never got an actual back-up 2 after they let Shannnon Brown walk. They need one who can spot up at a near league average rate and play decent defense.

As to MWP and Blake, they are both going to be 33 next year, both are overpaid, and both have extreme limitations. Blake is pretty decent on the 3, but he is not Steve Kerr, and he does not bring much else to the table. MWP's 3s will likely bounce back up towards his career rate, but his D, while still pretty good, is slipping, and his O is very limited.

As to Bryant, Hombre and I once had an exchange with kevin on the now-defunct BaskRef blog, and Hombre said that the basic argument that kevin was making all those years is that the Lakers lose games because Bryant is a selfish, overrated punk who shoots too much. And that IMO is more or less what Henry Abbott, and you, are saying as well. We started this conversation in 2007, and I think it is time (for the sake of the others on the thread) to end it, since I don't think either of our positions is going to change. Mine was, and is, that there is certainly at times truth in that idea, but that Bryant should be evaluated more in the larger context of the team than he often is, particularly given how much the team has won with him being a key part of it.

___

Who are you picking in the SA/OKC series? I am going to hold out and stick with preseason OKC in the Finals prediction, although all the signs are pointing the other way.

   1924. Spivey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 07:23 PM (#4141403)
I take the Spurs in 6. I'm really looking forward to this series.

I think Iggy/Jefferson is a bad deal for the 76ers and Turner/Favors is a bad deal for Utah. As such, I don't expect either to get done.
   1925. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 27, 2012 at 07:35 PM (#4141407)
Spurs in 5. (Though my preseason and pre-postseason pick was OKC).
   1926. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: May 27, 2012 at 07:37 PM (#4141408)
I haven't a clue what the outcome of this series will be and am very much looking forward to finding out. 4-0 either way would not stun me, nor would a 7 game set.
   1927. Spivey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4141421)
I'm biased, but I don't think I've looked forward to a non-Finals series more than this since San Antonio-Phoenix.
   1928. PJ Martinez Posted: May 27, 2012 at 08:21 PM (#4141428)
The Sixers are in a pretty interesting position. They have a bunch of young guys, a few of whom seem to have star-level potential -- but not superstar-level potential. (And of course, just because a few have star-level potential doesn't mean they're guaranteed to become stars.) So they need to 1) figure out which of those young guys to keep, and 2) trade some of the others (plus whatever other assets they have) for a superstar (or create enough cap room to sign one in free agency). But apart from probably Holiday, I have no idea which players they should keep, or whom they can realistically target in the next 3-4 years as a true #1 guy.
   1929. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 27, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4141432)
i am a huge fan of kanter's rebounding, but i'm not sure he does enough of everything else to make that a gamechanging type of acquisition.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Evan Turner sucks, guys.
   1930. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 27, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4141436)
i am a huge fan of kanter's rebounding, but i'm not sure he does enough of everything else to make that a gamechanging type of acquisition.


It will be interesting to see how he does next season. More than anyone on the Jazz (and maybe just about anyone in the NBA) he suffered from the lockout since there was no summer league and he didn't even get to play in college. He was never in NBA shape, but hopefully this season with his plans to work out with Jefferson (and I think Favors) plus summer league he'll be in better shape and consequently have better stamina and defense. He was just so slow on defense, and though I don't expect him to ever be a good defender, with his size if he's in shape he could at least be decent. I have less concerns about his offense. He's said to already have a sweet mid-range jumper and he showed some great potential in the low post, just needs practice to avoid traveling.
   1931. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 27, 2012 at 09:16 PM (#4141447)
I hate WoW stuff for individual analysis, but thought this team-based playoff prediction stuff was interesting.
   1932. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: May 27, 2012 at 10:08 PM (#4141468)
I hate WoW stuff for individual analysis, but thought this team-based playoff prediction stuff was interesting.

91% for the Spurs?! Where can I get a piece of that action?
   1933. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 27, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4141480)
Percentage wise...I've seen worse FT shooters than Tiago Splitter, but in terms of watching the actual FT performance...don't think I've ever seen anyone close to this bad.
   1934. Into the Void Posted: May 27, 2012 at 10:31 PM (#4141481)
Percentage wise...I've seen worse FT shooters than Tiago Splitter, but in terms of watching the actual FT performance...don't think I've ever seen anyone close to this bad.


Andris Biedrins is worse, I think.

   1935. Spivey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4141482)
Splitter is a 68% free throw shooter. He's a decent shooting player who is just tight in the playoffs.
   1936. Spivey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 10:33 PM (#4141483)
Gary Neal has played his balls off tonight.
   1937. Spivey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 10:41 PM (#4141486)
If people 15 years older than me want Dennis Johnson to be in the top 50, I want Ginobili.
   1938. Spivey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4141492)
Both teams look to be playing good defense. Fisher's hit some big time shots. I hate him, but he's been big tonight.
   1939. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 27, 2012 at 10:45 PM (#4141493)
Splitter is a 68% free throw shooter. He's a decent shooting player who is just tight in the playoffs.

I wasn't commenting on his actual success/failure rate.
   1940. The District Attorney Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:05 PM (#4141503)
@johnhollinger:
If the Spurs had a closer like Kobe this 7-point lead would be a lot more safe.
   1941. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4141504)
Manu Ginobli's footwork is really a beautiful thing.
   1942. Spivey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4141505)
Ginobili was incredible.
   1943. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:21 PM (#4141508)
sort of unrelated (sort of not) to actual free throw shooting ability - but did anyone mention the bit about josh childress not making a free throw all year? (two attempts in 491 minutes).
with atlanta, shot 82, 77, 80, 81 from the line - two tough years in europe where he shot 71, 70) then 49% with the suns last year.
   1944. Spivey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:45 PM (#4141515)
I don't follow the NBA as much as most of you... but Childress is one of the most interesting players in the NBA to me.
   1945. baudib Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:49 PM (#4141516)
Evan Turner certainly does suck; he was probably the worst rotation player in the playoffs. There's still potential though. I don't know how or why, but he started playing totally differently in the playoffs, attacking the rim relentlessly, getting to the FT line way more often. For whatever reason, the results just weren't there. He's got to make better decisions and he's got to finish and he has to improve his outside shooting. A guy at Liberty Ballers compares him to a hitter with an absurdly low BABIP; the approach is there but the results aren't.

So you have a guy who would be the best rebounding 2/3 with some potential as a scorer. If you can't get a good player for him it doesn't make any sense to trade him at the nadir of his market value.
   1946. baudib Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4141517)
I would have picked the Spurs in 6 and Heat in 4 BTW. Tiago's airball on FT was amusing. Are the Spurs and Thunder playing the same sport as the Celtics and Sixers?

   1947. Spivey Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:52 PM (#4141518)
I think Turner will have a meaningful career in the NBA. Sort of a poor man's Paul Pierce.

I'm actually higher on him now than I was when he came out of college.
   1948. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: May 27, 2012 at 11:56 PM (#4141520)
Other thoughts:

In the abstract, I'm not sure that Gasol is better than Iggy (he probably is). That said, I like Iguodala more than almost anyone. Both are very good ballplayers and (imo) underrated by the public at large. In his down year, Gasol was a 16.7/10.0/3.5, with 1.4 blk shooting 50% from the field and 78% from the line. (And those #s probably suffer a bit due to system and crowding out issues) The only time he's ever had a PER below 20 was his rookie year (19.5) a decade ago, which is both kind of a selective way of looking at things and really impressive. OTOH, 2/38.3m ... whew ... that's a lot of money.

Favors isn't going anywhere.

Kevin Martin: Anyone else have the feeling he might be on the verge of collapse? Don't see too much in terms of statistical indicators suggesting that that will happen, but something makes me nervous that he could lose a step soon and - if he does - that that could cause him problems. This is my gut, not my head talking.

baudib - are you considering Derek Fisher a rotation player (tonight notwithstanding)?
I don't see much Paul Pierce in there, but I do think he'll be a solid player in time. The issue with Turner as a scorer is (for me) that he's not a good jump shooter and not good getting to the line (you can also question his decision making). That doesn't leave much for a wing. That said, I don't buy the argument that Philly should go small and play him inside as a four initiating from the high post.
   1949. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 28, 2012 at 12:24 AM (#4141528)
Evan Turner certainly does suck; he was probably the worst rotation player in the playoffs. There's still potential though.

Agree to disagree. He's not that young and other than rebounding, I'm not really seeing a plus skill. Put another way...I don't know that Evan Turner is better than Landry Fields.

EDIT: I think Turner will have a meaningful career in the NBA. Sort of a poor man's Paul Pierce.

Not seeing it at all.

but I do think he'll be a solid player in time.

My memory may be off, but isn't Turner already past the age where we can expect significant gains? Time is not on his side IMO.
   1950. Booey Posted: May 28, 2012 at 12:40 AM (#4141530)
Who are you picking in the SA/OKC series?


I picked Miami over OKC before the season and before the playoffs, so I should stick with that. But the Spurs have looked damn near unbeatable so far, and if I'm allowed to change my pick, I'd say the Spurs in 6. To add to the fearless prediction, I'm saying the home team wins the first 5 games before SA closes it out in OKC in an all time classic. I'll also guess that 5 of the 6 games are decided by single digits and one of them goes to OT.

Heat/Celtics will be short and ugly.
   1951. Zipperholes Posted: May 28, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4141531)
What do we make of Evan Turner sounding like Meatwad when he talks?
   1952. Zipperholes Posted: May 28, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4141535)
^^^Wow, Google indicates about a million people have already made the connection. So, ignore for lack of originality.
   1953. steagles Posted: May 28, 2012 at 01:27 AM (#4141537)
Agree to disagree. He's not that young and other than rebounding, I'm not really seeing a plus skill. Put another way...I don't know that Evan Turner is better than Landry Fields.

My memory may be off, but isn't Turner already past the age where we can expect significant gains? Time is not on his side IMO.
i think what you're missing is his ability to beat almost anyone in the NBA off the dribble. with his size, and with his ability to string multiple moves together to slip past his man, he really could be a very productive scorer in the mold of, say, corey maggette. he couldn't finish to save his life in the playoffs, but if he locks that part of his game down and if he hits his peak, he'll shoot maybe 45-50% from the field, he'll be league average from beyond the arc, and he'll get to the line a ton, while shooting FTs at a really good percentage. that's on top of being able to adequately defend 3 positions, and being the best rebounder in the NBA at all of them.

that's a hell of a player. that's what evan turner could be. that's why i'm not exceedingly eager to toss him aside for 15 cents on the dollar.

   1954. baudib Posted: May 28, 2012 at 01:27 AM (#4141538)

Agree to disagree. He's not that young and other than rebounding, I'm not really seeing a plus skill. Put another way...I don't know that Evan Turner is better than Landry Fields.


He's not better than Landry Fields. He doesn't have another plus skill; if he did, he wouldn't suck. But if he keeps getting to the rim and getting more FTs like he did in the playoffs, he'll presumably do better than have a TS% of 41.
   1955. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: May 28, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4141540)
I am still pro-Turner also, he just seems like a good basketball player who will put it together in one way or another.
   1956. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 28, 2012 at 01:54 AM (#4141541)
he really could be a very productive scorer in the mold of, say, corey maggette

and

he just seems like a good basketball player who will put it together in one way or another.

Agree to disagree. It may really just be the case that I am, in fact, taking crazy pills.
   1957. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 28, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4141543)
i think what you're missing is his ability to beat almost anyone in the NBA off the dribble.


Well he's gotten to the rim and to the FT line at a below average rate thus far in his career so I'm skeptical this is true.

with his size, and with his ability to string multiple moves together to slip past his man, he really could be a very productive scorer in the mold of, say, corey maggette. he couldn't finish to save his life in the playoffs, but if he locks that part of his game down and if he hits his peak, he'll shoot maybe 45-50% from the field,


He may have struggled in the playoffs but he's actually been an above average finisher at the rim during the regular season so I wouldn't expect much improvement over his regular season numbers from finishing.

he'll be league average from beyond the arc, and he'll get to the line a ton, while shooting FTs at a really good percentage.


I don't see any reason to think he'll ever be close to league average from beyond the arc. He rarely shoots from three and is at 27% in his career. And he doesn't get to the FT line a lot.


that's a hell of a player. that's what evan turner could be. that's why i'm not exceedingly eager to toss him aside for 15 cents on the dollar.


I can see this even if I think Turner is never going to be more than a passable rotation player, but most of the proposed trades I've heard have been steals for the Sixers (like for Favors and I'd even say Kanter).
   1958. baudib Posted: May 28, 2012 at 02:15 AM (#4141544)


He may have struggled in the playoffs but he's actually been an above average finisher at the rim during the regular season so I wouldn't expect much improvement over his regular season numbers from finishing.


The whole point is that in the playoffs, against the top 2 defensive teams in the conference, he got to the rim whenever he wanted. It was a total departure from his regular season play, and he drew a lot more fouls. Jrue Holiday did this as well, which is why he was the team's leading scorer in the playoffs after a pretty disappointing regular season. Jrue had success doing it, but Turner had ridiculously bad/probably unsustainably bad results. If he continues to attack more and maintain the numbers he had from outside and from inside during the regular season, he'll be a decent scorer. If he does that and improves his shooting at all, he'll be a pretty good scorer.
   1959. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 28, 2012 at 03:42 AM (#4141548)

The whole point is that in the playoffs, against the top 2 defensive teams in the conference, he got to the rim whenever he wanted. It was a total departure from his regular season play, and he drew a lot more fouls. Jrue Holiday did this as well, which is why he was the team's leading scorer in the playoffs after a pretty disappointing regular season. Jrue had success doing it, but Turner had ridiculously bad/probably unsustainably bad results. If he continues to attack more and maintain the numbers he had from outside and from inside during the regular season, he'll be a decent scorer. If he does that and improves his shooting at all, he'll be a pretty good scorer.


I'm not really quibbling with the idea that his FG% in the playoffs was fluky low; I just don't see any reason to think he'll get to the rim or line that often over an entire season. And considering how horrendous he's been at scoring he'd probably have to maintain both to even be mediocre.
   1960. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: May 28, 2012 at 05:07 AM (#4141554)
Far be it from me to question the best coach in the league, but curious: why has DeJuan Blair been mothballed this postseason?
   1961. baudib Posted: May 28, 2012 at 05:43 AM (#4141556)
They like Diaw better.
   1962. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: May 28, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4141586)
comparisons to corey maggette, whose ability to draw fouls was around three times that of turner, are unwarranted to a remarkable degree.

i like turner quite a bit more than the guy i'm about to mention, but your description, steagles, and their ensuing shooting numbers remind me a bit of chris douglas-roberts - another guy who numbers didn't meet peak hype (though cdr was significantly less well regarded as a pro prospect).
   1963. Famous Original Joe C Posted: May 28, 2012 at 11:55 AM (#4141616)
The Celtics will take one game in this series. They'll randomly make their jumpers and/or get a 21/12/15 from Rondo.
   1964. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 28, 2012 at 07:45 PM (#4141849)
It has recently occurred to me that once his career is over...Tim Duncan may very well (rightfully) be ranked in the Top 5. I'm not sure why this is blowing my mind, but it is.
   1965. JJ1986 Posted: May 28, 2012 at 08:43 PM (#4141865)
Why are the Celtics dressed like the Timberwolves?
   1966. Spivey Posted: May 28, 2012 at 09:32 PM (#4141883)
Why are the Celtics dressed like the Timberwolves?


A debt's being paid.
   1967. PJ Martinez Posted: May 28, 2012 at 09:32 PM (#4141885)
1966: Well played.
   1968. PJ Martinez Posted: May 28, 2012 at 09:36 PM (#4141888)
I realize one of them was a delay of game, and I'm hardly impartial here, but these officials seem a little tech-happy, no?
   1969. baudib Posted: May 28, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4141889)
Tim Duncan may very well (rightfully) be ranked in the Top 5. I'm not sure why this is blowing my mind, but it is.


He's either there already or he isn't. It's very unlikely he do something in the rest of his career to change his ranking.
   1970. Spivey Posted: May 28, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4141891)
With rings being such a big (IMO too big) part of ranking players, especially the top 20 players, I think Duncan winning another ring in the next couple of years while putting up 15/9 type numbers would definitely help his legacy. I think he'd start getting Russell comparisons, and rightfully so.
   1971. Yardape Posted: May 28, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4141892)
I realize one of them was a delay of game, and I'm hardly impartial here, but these officials seem a little tech-happy, no?


Yes, they have. I have not been impressed with this crew. Can't they just get rid of Danny and Joey Crawford?
   1972. Spivey Posted: May 28, 2012 at 10:04 PM (#4141898)
I don't mind calling the tech on teams that are always preventing the other team from taking the ball out of the basket, but I wish they'd call it more consistently.
   1973. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 28, 2012 at 10:13 PM (#4141903)
He's either there already or he isn't. It's very unlikely he do something in the rest of his career to change his ranking.

He's still playing at a very high level, so I disagree. Plus, spivey's point.
   1974. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: May 28, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4141916)
Completely OT (but about the NBA)...
I finally sprung for Synergy and am having some issues with the interface (which I've never liked, having poked at the free stuff before) and with using and interpreting the numbers (which I want to get a handle on before I do too much video stuff). Using the T-Wolves as an example - and noting that the main metric is PPP (points per play):
their offense (PPP = 0.91, 11th in the league) "outperformed" their defense (0.88, 16th in the league) - which is odd for a team that was outscored on the season by 2.2 points per game. The answer, of course, is that Minnesota had many less possessions than their opponents (7061 v. 7421). Given that they're counting plays which end in a FGA, turnover, or FTs - my first thought was - 'oh, Minnesota must have been much worse at rebounding than I'd believed' - as an offensive rebound would generate an extra play under that framework ... but Minnesota was near dead average on that end.
What am I missing?

Also, it looks like they lump playoff work in with the regular season. That seems like a curious choice.

Why don't that make league averages easily available? Or when they tell you that 'X' is 235th in the league at 'Y' how many other players qualified in that category? And so on and on times a bunch.
   1975. JC in DC Posted: May 28, 2012 at 10:54 PM (#4141919)
Ray Allen is just killing Boston. He's contributing nothing.
   1976. Fourth True Outcome Posted: May 28, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4141923)
Ray Allen is just killing Boston. He's contributing nothing.


Yup. He's a non-entity on the court, unable to make the Heat pay for mostly ignoring him, and without Bradley and with Pierce working hard on LeBron defensively they need him badly.
   1977. baudib Posted: May 28, 2012 at 10:57 PM (#4141924)
He's playing at a high level, but lower than his previously established level. Also he's probably his team's third-most important player.
   1978. JC in DC Posted: May 28, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4141927)
He's playing at a high level


No, he's not. He's contributing nothing. He can't pass, he can't defend, he can't rebound. You can love the guy, love what he's done, but he's just killing them.
   1979. Fourth True Outcome Posted: May 28, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4141928)
To give credit, he has 5 rebounds and is crashing the glass (for him) this game. But he can't buy a shot, has limited mobility, and hasn't been able to make anything happen the couple times he's tried to create something for someone else. I'm with JC. I have boundless respect for him and this poor play is fully the fault of his bone spurs, but that doesn't change the facts. He was a good 6th man decoy with they had Avery Bradley, but without him Ray is going to continue to get exposed.
   1980. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: May 28, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4141929)
[1978] I think [1977] was about Duncan. He might be his team's 3rd most important offensive player, but as best I can tell he's holding that defense together.
   1981. baudib Posted: May 28, 2012 at 11:05 PM (#4141930)
I was talking about Duncan. Duncan's been holding the defense together for 15 years.
   1982. JC in DC Posted: May 28, 2012 at 11:05 PM (#4141931)
[1978] I think [1977] was about Duncan. He might be his team's 3rd most important offensive player, but as best I can tell he's holding that defense together.


Ah!
   1983. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: May 28, 2012 at 11:12 PM (#4141936)
i thought it was about allen too.
   1984. Fourth True Outcome Posted: May 28, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4141942)
Both parts of it were confusing if it were about Allen, so that makes a good bit more sense.
   1985. baudib Posted: May 29, 2012 at 12:47 AM (#4141959)
Allen? He's been toast for years. Terrible re-signing by Boston.
   1986. King Mekong Posted: May 29, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4141961)
[1960] DeJuan Blair can't be paired with any big other than duncan in the spurs rotation. Diaw is a better passer and he picked up Blair's minutes for that reason (and he's hit a few threes).
   1987. King Mekong Posted: May 29, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4142292)
[1977] I'm not so sure if it's that easy to ordinally rank the spurs players. The situation is pretty fluid due to the spurs depth and I'm not sure if any one of the "Big 3" is that much more important than the others, I think it largely depends on matchups.

Here's a telling quote from BPRO - http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2230
Tony Parker and Steve Nash are popular end-of-ballot candidates right now. In Parker's case, I think he's getting a bit too much credit for the Spurs' success. I question whether Parker is necessarily even the team's most effective player, or whether Tim Duncan still deserves that title because of his ability to impact a game at both ends. (RAPM does favor Parker.) More than anything, though, I think San Antonio's record is a tribute to the team's depth and Gregg Popovich's coaching.


There's obviously room for argument, but I'd say Duncan's help defense anchors the Spurs and provides as much for wins as does Parker and Ginobili's breaking down the defense of the dribble. Tough to tease it all apart this season.
   1988. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 29, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4142300)
15 years ago today the Jazz went to the Finals.
NBA.com

I'm not sure if this or Aaron Boone's HR is my favorite single sports moment, but pretty sure I'll never forget either. Also, I can't help but marvel at the fact that I liked the Jazz' uniforms as a kid.

   1989. Jimmy P Posted: May 29, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4142333)
In a total Clipper move, Vinny Del Negro will coach the Clippers again next season
   1990. baudib Posted: May 29, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4142364)
Sunday's game notwithstanding, Ginobili has clearly been a notch below his previously established norms, both in the regular season and in the postseason so far.


If you switch Pop and Brooks, I think the Thunder win in 5 or 6.
   1991. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: May 29, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4142369)
It has recently occurred to me that once his career is over...Tim Duncan may very well (rightfully) be ranked in the Top 5. I'm not sure why this is blowing my mind, but it is.

Can't see him ever getting above Kareem, Russell, Magic, or Jordan. He's in the conversation with Oscar, Bird (and others deemed to belong) for 5.
   1992. steagles Posted: May 29, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4142373)
Sunday's game notwithstanding, Ginobili has clearly been a notch below his previously established norms, both in the regular season and in the postseason so far.
he had a .670 TS% this year. he had a 24 PER. he shot 52/41/87 from the floor/3P line/FT line.


he had a pretty outstanding season, he just wasn't healthy for most of it.
   1993. steagles Posted: May 29, 2012 at 06:07 PM (#4142388)
Can't see him ever getting above Kareem, Russell, Magic, or Jordan. He's in the conversation with Oscar, Bird (and others deemed to belong) for 5.
4 rings, 13 ASGs, 2 time league MVP. 3 time NBA finals MVP. 9 time 1st team all-NBA.

he's 9th all-time in PER, behind jordan, lebron, shaq, david robinson, wilt, dwayne wade, chris paul, and bob petit.

he doesn't have a very flashy peak, but in terms of per minute production, he was a great player on day 1 when he entered the league, and he's been a great player for each of the 15 years since. per 36 minutes, he averaged 19 and 11 as a rookie, 19 and 11 as a 29 year old, and 19 and 11 now, at 35 years old. he won championships at 22, 26, 28, and 30, and has a good chance of winning another at 35.

that's a hell of a run to put up in a perennially loaded conference.
   1994. smileyy Posted: May 29, 2012 at 06:15 PM (#4142398)
Speaking of all-time rankings, where does Popovich rank among coaches? I'd put him behind Jackson, naturally. Popovich or Riley is a more interesting question.
   1995. baudib Posted: May 29, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4142399)
Why is Russell better than Duncan?

Assume that Russell is the greatest defensive player of all time. How much better is he than Duncan on defense? Because Duncan is a quantum leap better on offense.
   1996. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: May 29, 2012 at 06:17 PM (#4142400)
he doesn't have a very flashy peak, but in terms of per minute production, he was a great player on day 1 when he entered the league, and he's been a great player for each of the 15 years since. per 36 minutes, he averaged 19 and 11 as a rookie, 19 and 11 as a 29 year old, and 19 and 11 now, at 35 years old. he won championships at 22, 26, 28, and 30, and has a good chance of winning another at 35.

Great intangibles, too -- arguably the best of all-time. Hyper-intelligent, very coachable (which means everybody else on the team has to be coachable), dependable, entirely driven by winning, and literally nothing he does or has ever done on the floor is driven by personal whim, neurosis, or need. When you combine that with his versatility, he's among the very best teammates to ever play the game.
   1997. Jimmy P Posted: May 29, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4142404)
Why is Russell better than Duncan?


Because he played 40(?) years ago and not today? Guys that played that long ago always get a boost.

   1998. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: May 29, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4142405)
Why is Russell better than Duncan?

Better shot blocker, better defender, more athletic, more rings.

Guys that played that long ago always get a boost.

A bunch of his prime games have been available on You Tube, NBA TV, and ESPN Classic. I'd never have the opinion I have unless I'd seen him in actual broadcast action.
   1999. Booey Posted: May 29, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4142416)
#1988 - Thanks for the memories, Tom. The greatest moment in franchise history and by far my all time personal favorite sports memory. Stockton could forever do no wrong in my eyes after this. I probably would've defended him if he'd gone on a chainsaw killing spree.
   2000. baudib Posted: May 29, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4142422)
Better shot blocker, better defender, more athletic, more rings.


Better shot blocker and better defender is covered by "assume he's the greatest defensive player of all time."
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