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Ah, but would you trade current Dwight Howard for 1st pick in the draft Dwight Howard?
Yes. It took Howard three years to become a legit all-star, and 4 years to develop his offensive game and become all-NBA 1st team material. I don't think those things were certainties. I can view a universe where Dwight Howard is just Tyson Chandler a significant percentage of the time. Current Dwight is quite a bit better than that.
if you can guarantee that you keep both williams and howard in the long term by trading davis, would you prefer that to having neither williams nor howard, but keeping davis on a rookie deal?
i kind of think that's a no-brainer, but it's kind of an irrelevant question now.
Personally, I think Chandler's underrated.
In the NBA, due to the max contract, true superstar players (top 5-10 in the league guys) are the most important part of your team and the most valuable. They are very rarely available on the open market, and even when they are available, it's only around 3 teams (for any given player) that have a legit shot at signing them.
As such, draft choices are never as valuable as established superstars, unlike in MLB or the NFL. Even if you're confident that the guy you'd draft has a 50/50 shot at turning into Dwight Howard (and there's no way you should be that confident!), you would still trade him for the actual Dwight Howard in his prime.
Another question for the group, before MJ took over as the consensus GOAT was there a time where Bird or Magic were considered GOAT or having the potential to be GOAT or was the title pretty much Russell's without a doubt?
I've never experienced Russell as no doubt GOAT. The conversation was always Bird, Magic, Russell, Wilt, and KAJ, though the last a little less emphasized (wrongly imho, as you all know).
i meant to link this before: draft lottery conspiracy theories.
This is a ways back now (life intervened), and first off props for doing research and posting in publicly. There are a few concerns one would have however. The question isn't really whether it's worth it to have Kobe on your team - clearly it is. He's a great player, top 10 all time probably, top 15 easily. Every team in the league would gladly take him. If Kobe takes a few extra shots a game, well bummer, but you live with it. Carmelo, while overrated, is also a very good player. Both guys draw a lot of attention, which would seem to make things easier for their teammates. That's a good thing.
The question isn't whether it's good to have Kobe or Carmelo, the question is whether there's a better version of Kobe or Carmelo that can be attained by them shooting less. I.e. it's not about comparing Lakers w/ Kobe to Lakers w/o Kobe, it's comparing Lakers w/ Kobe shooting a ton vs. Lakers w/o Kobe shooting a ton. 3.8 points of TS% is good. 5 is better. I'm not saying this is the case or whether that's attainable, but that's the real question. Obviously Kobe is awesome and you take him regardless. But is there a better Kobe? There's also the inverse relationship between efficiency and usage, in that efficiency tends to go down as usage goes up and vice versa. If you have a player on your team who is using 35% of the possessions there are significantly fewer possessions for other players to use, so we would expect their efficiencies to be higher with that guy on the court than without.
We also have to control for quality of opponent (witness how league strength and park effects have been a sea change in baseball statistics), and consider that we're talking about very small sample sizes regardless, since Kobe and Carmelo play most of their team's games. Also these stats are old - has this effect persisted? But the biggest issue is that we are in very short supply of Kobe's and Carmelo's - as I said you live with these guys shooting a little more than they should as they're net positives on offense regardless. What about all the other players in the league? A lot of teams have a guy who shoots too much. What if Jamal Crawford's shooting too much? Or, I hate to say this as he was a fave, Allen Iverson? Or Tracy McGrady, etc.
I'm not saying I know the answers - I'm just saying no one knows yet. We're still in the early stages of statistics. Basketball isn't like baseball - aesthetics actually tell us something about the quality of performance. We can see when a guy is taking low percentage shots, we can see at the end of a half when a guy says "I'm taking this shot no matter what". Does this style of play have no effect, a little effect, or lots of effect? No idea. Yet.
From my vague memories of the late 80s I would say Kareem was probably who people would have said was the GOAT, though I wouldn't put much money on it.
http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2324
Miami needs to make some free throws though.
Spivey/1115 - yeah it was.
Quite a performance.
/justsaying
Against Boston? People mostly ##### about officiating when there's one team it would seem the NBA would clearly prefer to win (i.e. huge market Lakers vs. tiny market Sacramento). I don't think the NBA would be TOO upset if Boston and it's gigantic fanbase were to make the finals. Particularly if it's against the creaky Spurs rather than the young hot Thunder.
It's best when it's hats off to Rondo AND they lose though.
I don't see any reason why any Celtics fan could act like they got robbed. It seemed like half the times that Rondo went to the line were on highly questionable calls.
In my experience, people mostly ##### about officiating when it's the Lakers (and the Bulls during the Jordan years).
I disagree with you, but it's a moot point and not really worth arguing. Robbed is a funny word - would they have won if they make that call on Wade? I don't know. Just wish they had made it. So it goes.
That was a good article. And it did make me smile to be quoted. :) I was at work when I read it and almost felt like pointing it out to my co-workers, but then I decided I probably shouldn't draw attention to the fact that I was hanging out on BBTF rather than actually working.
And the 2006 Heat.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--nba-s-problematic-ownership-of-hornets-opens-door-to-rigged-talk-over-draft-lottery-20120531.html
1. Doug Collins is staying
2. As expected, Lou Williams will probably exercise his option. He wants a long-term deal.
3. Elton Brand also wants a long-term deal, and is willing to renegotiate.
4. Rumors that Rod Thorn is considering retirement. Who knew the guy was still working?
A lot of Sixers fans take out their frustrations on Lou and want him gone. The problem with Williams is he ends up with the ball a lot in crucial situations, as STEAGLES has noted many times, the Sixers had an unbelievably horrific record in close games, and a lot of those losses ended with Lou shooting a long 3 when down 2 or dribbling down to 1.5 seconds before making a bad pass or shot.
To me that says a lot more about the state of the Sixers than Lou Williams. You can't compare him to a starting SG let alone Kobe or Dwyane Wade -- Williams is a guy who plays 25-28 mins a game and provides instant offense off the bench and he's really good at that role. Granted, he's probably going to want a lot more money, and if some team wants to throw a huge contract his way and make him a starter, good for him. But definitely a guy I'd like to have back at a reasonable contract.
That said, with Collins coming back, it's probably not ideal to have all three of Williams, Turner and Iguodala returning.
Elton Brand has been a warrior and a really nice player over the course of his career. It seems he wants to finish his career in Philly. Unfortunately, signing him to some 2-3 year extension seems like a bad idea unless it's on a super team-friendly deal. Amnesty him, trade his expiring contract or get him back well below market value. Anything else would probably be a disaster.
1. There was a lot of argument when I called Derrick Rose a "transcendent star" early in the 2010-11 season.
2. I don't feel too comfortable about my comparison (as a statistical profile) of Blake Griffin to Charles Barkley. There was a brief period in Blake's rookie year where it looked like he had some talent for shooting 3-pointers and was a better passer than he is. Obviously still young and a really good player. Also, STEAGLES had Chris Paul joining Blake.
3. Remember when the Lakers' bench was deep and talented?
4. No one knew much about Kris Humphries.
[2148] 1. I still disagree with your assertion.
2. Blake is a pretty good passer/ball-handler at the 4, IMO, but he sometimes makes poor decisions due to being overly aggressive. In particular, he loves to go to that spin move and sometimes gets himself trapped in the thick of the defense. The 3 point shooting does appear to be a fluke though.
As a statistical profile maybe. Karl Malone had a similar statistical profile, minus the 3 pointers. But for the visual, I don't think anyone compares. A 6'4 1'2, 275 pound man charging down the court with the speed of a guard, all the sane players getting out of his way, followed by a monster dunk. I don't think we'll ever see his like again, and that makes me sad.
I watched a highlight youtube of Barkley this weekend. I loved that guy. What a crazy athlete he was.
it was time for Heat stars to "hit the deck".
They said it, then they did it. They put Miami at the line instead of letting them have easy baskets. And after they followed through with their plan, what comes next? Of course, whining about all the foul shots Miami took.
"Rivers seethed, but he could change nothing late Wednesday night. "LeBron James took 24 free throws, and our team took 29."
If they want any chance of making the series a challenge, they need to keep it up, especially since Miami only made 31 of 47 free throws. I understand they need to be physical with the Heat, but shut up already about it. When you send somebody to the deck, he gets 2 free throws. This is the rule, and there's nothing new about it.
Rondo certainly was fouled on that play in OT. But he also got to the line earlier in the game with some very questionable ones. Biggest one that stands out to me: Rondo drives, Miller standing under the basket. Rondo misses shot, ref blows the whistle after seeing whether the shot is good or not. Miller barely moved, he's not actually capable of movement. At most he might have had a festering body part fall off and brush Rondo.
Did I miss it this year (completely possible, I didn't see the Clips that much), or does Blake have absolutely no post game? Every time I sat down to watch them play I ended up being disappointed in his lack of progress. Like others have said, he's already very good, but he just seems like he could be much better.
I'm a Celtics fan, but I think AROM and others have it right. I have no complaints. Lebron and Wade are getting in the paint all night, of course they're going to the line more. If anything, Lebron probably should have taken more than 24 FTs; he's entered that Shaq zone where he's basically fouled on every drive but doesn't always show it (except for the occasional flop, admittedly).
I've heard a lot of theories as to why Chandler didn't develop sooner. But this is the first time I've seen anyone blame Eddy Curry. Tyson had some success playing with Chris Paul (who doesn't?), but wasn't seen as the guy he is now until his 4th and 5th teams.
Wojnarowski turns his baleful eye on the Commish and the lottery:
I, for one, am sick of these conspiracies.
Elton Brand also wants a long-term deal, and is willing to renegotiate.
He just means an extension, right? No renegotiating is allowed.
1. There was a lot of argument when I called Derrick Rose a "transcendent star" early in the 2010-11 season.
I think you jumped the gun on that one, but were right. On the first couple of pages of the very first thread, I talked about Rose's ceiling being that high. I don't think I was convinced he'd get there (especially with VDN coaching him), but was glad to be wrong.
Rondo certainly was fouled on that play in OT.
Totally agree. And with the rest of the post, too. Pietrus in particular made some really, really dumb fouls (the clear path one, the one right after 2 minutes that looked like an end of game intentional foul, the OT jump and flail on the baseline). The 6th foul on Pierce is another one that's always called. If you're going to jump straight up, your arms have to be straight up too and stay that way until you land; his didn't. That foul is on Rondo though, for letting Wade blow right past him (perhaps fatigue is the real culprit there).
This. Add in that if you're Stern, you want the appearance that things aren't fixed. You don't do that by fixing it for the team that EVERYONE thinks it's fixed for (if that makes sense).
There were 4 reporters in the room last night. If it were fixed, we're talking some of the greatest planning ever.
I don't think rigging the lottery is worth the risk and, if I were to do it, it wouldn't be for NO.
Also, people are kind of down on last night's game, but it was competitive, we saw some incredible plays at both ends, we saw Lebron taking a big role in closing out the game in overtime. It was a little sloppy, but we can't nitpick too much for games this deep in the playoffs. I enjoyed it.
After missing 2 potential game winners in regulation, of course. He short-armed the layup, and then the choice for the 20 foot fadeaway while being guarded by an exhausted and overmatched Rondo was pretty bad (and I should point out that while I appreciate JVG doing his part to squash the LeBron fails in the clutch talk, he couldn't have been more wrong that the last shot was as good as Miami was going to get there).
It's become such a joke at this point that there's not much the NBA can do. There's about a 95% chance that the lottery is won by a team that somebody can write a pretty good conspiracy narrative about. And if the pick goes to one of the teams in the other 5%? Well, obviously Stern rigged it to quiet down the conspiracy talk.
I agree that the risk is too great. Stern wouldn't need a huge amount of people involved, but definitely a few. And of this small group of corrupt men, what are the chances somebody gets busted for an unrelated crime (maybe an auditor who involved in green-lighting some major bank fraud or something) and then decides to sing? Or maybe someone gets old, tired of the games, and develops a conscience? Letting the picks fall where they may seems a much less stressful long term strategy for the league.
I would like to see this be more transparent. And if we can make it entertaining, so much the better. How about:
All teams must designate someone in their ownership group (say a minimum of 10%, so they don't throw a .00001 percent share to a ringer) to represent the team in a 1 on 1 basketball tournament. Obviously this works out well for the Bobcats. Prokorov should do well. Stern himself has to represent the Hornets, so they'll pick last among the lottery teams.
Yeah, I said overtime before to distinguish from him missing in regulation. Either way, he didn't shy away from the big shots.
Rondo was so exhausted that he collapsed in OT and missed all his remaining shots. Oh, wait, nevermind. He was overmatched, but Lebron's advantage on Rondo is size and to exploit that he's got to put his back to the basket and take him down low, or shoot over him which he did. If he tries posting up, he gets triple teamed, and probably his best move at that point is to pass to an open teammate. I think I'd rather have James taking the shot he did than have Haslem or Battier or whoever take the final shot. With Lebron facing the basket, I think you have the best chance of managing the clock, making sure that the shot taken comes at the buzzer.
If Lebron makes that shot at the end of regulation, it doesn't really affect the narrative. Lebron has made huge shots in the playoffs before. Buzzer beaters even. He even made some huge shots last year to close out the Celtics.
That talk remains until Lebron can make big shots like that in the finals.
Didn't work too well. They got more than they probably should, but it wasn't highway robbery
The officiating was not very good last night. People have already articulated a number of bad calls. They missed a number of calls that should have been easy. For instance, while they got it right on review, they miss Rondo having half a foot (not just a toe) over the three point line. There were a lot of fouls on questionable contact on drives. I have just stopped making critical posts on officiating. It doesn't seem to be a topic that most want to discuss on the actual calls or review of the specific officials or crews. I don't particular want to argue for a conspiracy theory that I do not hold.
The conspiracy theorists seem to think that the NBA wants New Orleans to get the top pick (even though their ownership is functionally over and the purchase price has already been set) so they can develop into a contender.
I thought the conspiracy theory was the #1 pick was part of the terms of sale to Benson.
He short-armed the layup, and then the choice for the 20 foot fadeaway while being guarded by an exhausted and overmatched Rondo was pretty bad (and I should point out that while I appreciate JVG doing his part to squash the LeBron fails in the clutch talk, he couldn't have been more wrong that the last shot was as good as Miami was going to get there).
As I recall, JVG also stated ~"This is what you want to do, put the ball in Lebron's hands." From JVG's point of view, that may have been the best shot they could get. Namely, if you decide that you are going to have LBJ run down the clock and iso, that may have been the best shot you could get. If you further decide that LBJ is going to be the shooter, then it further reduces the number of shots you could get.
I can't recall the source, but there was analysis on the interwebs that showed how offensive efficiency degraded based on how much time the player holds the ball. As I recall, there is a big drop off after two dribbles. Consequently, I agree with Moses they could have gotten a better shot, but IMHO, that would likely have required a different offensive set.
Odd non sequitur. The point is more that he didn't use any advantages to get something better than a low percentage shot. Points about other people taking the shot, double/triple coverages are all fair, but it's still a 20 foot fade away over a much smaller player.
That talk remains until Lebron can make big shots like that in the finals.
It's probably going to have to be a game 7 game winner to shut most people up, and even that won't be enough for everyone. Or maybe 4 straight game winners to sweep the series.
#foreverbitter
They ran a great play to get the first shot, but after LBJ got the offensive rebound he demanded the ball back and cleared everyone out and waited 10+ seconds before doing anything else.
If it took a legendary game by Rondo to keep the Celtics in it last night, I'm not sure this series lasts very long.
But to a large degree, this is Stern reaping what he has sewed. As a caveat, I think Stern has been a great commissioner and he has done a lot to make the NBA more profitable. However, were I do offer criticism is how he handled controversy. The evaluation of officials is very opaque. Discipline and reinstitution of officials is very opaque. It took Tim Donaghy and five plus years before the league admitted that the infamous game 6 was poorly called. There has never been a statement on Heat-Mavs 1. The only suspension I remember being announced was after Joey Crawford gave Timmy a T on the bench. He was out of the league for refusing to serve, then he was back, and I'm not sure we heard anything.
In addition, you can't get any real critical discussion on any controversial issue, b/c the participants are fined if they discuss the issue. We don't know what is reported by teams when they are allowed to make their critical reports, so we can't really analyze if there are any trends, etc. I recognize that this reduces some of the whining, but it also makes conditions more condusive to people expecting conspiracies. When you then have one of your officials caught betting on games, and he alleges other shenanigans, its going to exacerbate the problem.
I know most leagues like to keep the officials talk out of the narrative; however, there are some that are being more forthcoming. We are able to get more information from NCAA football conferences on ref reports. IMHO, this makes it better for the league image and for reducing some of the structural conspiracy theories.
He just needs to win a ring. How he actually plays in the series to get it is irrelevant. Players who have them aren't considered chokers even if they played like crap, and players who don't are guys with flaws in their games or mentality that prevent them from winning it all, even if they played awesome in the Finals and they lost cuz their teammates blew chunks.
It's asinine, but that seems to be the mindset.
Agreed. IMO, Stern helps fuel the conspiracy theories with his hypersensitivity about the issue. The fines players and coaches get just for mentioning a call are ridiculous. Are the fines this high or this common with any other sport? If a baseball player struck out looking and then said in the postgame interview, "That pitch was high", would he get an automatic fine of at least 25 grand?
How much was Frank Vogel fined for saying the Heat were floppers or whatever it was that he said? And Stern said it would've been even more if it were up to him. Really? Why are comments like Vogel's such a big deal?
Battier has rarely been used as a player that creates his own shots; however, his position on the floor in the Heat's game is largely due to their offense. 77% of his shots are jump shots and 92% of them are assisted. See 82 games. Battier sparked an extensive discussion on the epic thread. You can read this love piece on Battier and Morley. IIRC, Andy is a big Battier fan.
Of course the Wolves do need an SG, but please not from Syracuse.
This is actually the thing that's been driving me crazy all series. Bad calls happen, but the refs have been pretty consistently whistling calls after shots miss. I've noticed it more on the Heat, but that is almost certainly a combination of them driving more and my own confirmation bias. I can live with a bad call, but call it or don't. Whistling a foul two or three seconds after it occurs and the continuation shot has missed is unacceptable.
Based on everything Booey has said in this thread, I have chosen to believe that he works for the mob.
I feel like Moe Harkless is going to be a steal for someone around that range of picks, but he can probably only play SF.
a) hate Stern
b) are Lakers fans
c) are Bobcats fans
d) are into conspiracies
e) all or any of the above
something to work with. That is also true of the ref issues that people talk about.
With reasons not to post up (clock management and wanting Lebron to take it), his options are the long jumper or try to drive to the basket. I think if Pierce is on him, a drive to the basket starting with about 3-4 seconds could work, he can get by Pierce and even if he doesn't make the shot has a good chance of getting fouled.
With Rondo, I think the drive is off. The one advantage he does not have is quickness. If he drives on Rondo I think there's a very good chance of an offensive foul call, and the Heat don't need Rondo winning the game at the line with basically no time left. If Pierce is on him and he tries the jumper, Pierce is unlikely to block his shot but probably makes it a very uncomfortable jumper. On Rondo, the jumper he let fly looked pretty comfortable.
All three of them are pretty upset about the lottery.
I actually really did "lol" on that one!
Man, I wish that were true. It'd be so much more interesting than being an inventory analyst for a furniture retailer.
Edit: But if you'd rather still believe the mob ties, feel free to ignore that last line. I can't say I'd blame ya. :)
In game 1 I noticed that with the Heat getting the late whistles. Yesterday I mostly noticed it on Rondo early in the game. In any case, I totally agree that this is BS. It's as if the ref is thinking "I'm not sure if that was a foul. It was close but I don't want to give him an undeserved 3 point play. But if it was a foul, I don't want him to come away with nothing. I'll wait and see if the shot falls in, then I'll decide what to do."
I would have guessed you work at a Big and Tall Mens Wear with all the mentions of the big men. I mean, everybody has to buy furniture, but specialty clothing would increase the odds your customers were giants.
Can't have a conspircy if there's noting to conspire to.
I agree. I think Harkless is one of the more undervalued players in most mock drafts. I also think Perry Jones can be a value pick based on where he is projected; however, Jones concerns me because he takes so many plays off. If he continues to do that, he could get pushed out of the association really quickly.
If he drives on Rondo I think there's a very good chance of an offensive foul call, and the Heat don't need Rondo winning the game at the line with basically no time left.
There would not be free throws on an offensive foul; however, a turnover that deep would create a court balance problem. The defending player may get a good look at the basket for a final shot.
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